TIP824：Copa Holdings (CPA)：巴菲特关于航空股的观点正确吗？对话嘉宾：Daniel Mahncke 与 Shawn O'Malley

比如某个机场的起降时刻非常有限，而你掌控了大部分时段——或者像巴拿马航空那样，占据了一个地理上的有利位置，让竞争对手根本觉得不值得飞同样的航线。

So that could be an airport where, you know, these slots are constrained and you control most of them or, and this is actually the game that Copa plays, a geographic position where it doesn't make economic sense for a rival to even try to fly the same routes.

我们稍后会详细讲这一点，但还有一种赚钱的方式，那就是行业竞争格局发生了重组。

We will get into that into detail later, but then there's also a third way that you can make money and be profitable, and that is a restructured competitive field.

那些大型美国航空公司之所以在一段时间内变得值得投资，连巴菲特和比尔·米勒这样的人都开始关注它们，正是因为正如我刚才说的，当时看起来这个行业真的要开始合并和整合了。

So the reason, you know, these big US airlines became investable for a period, and the reason, you know, Buffett, of all people, and then also Bill Miller got interested in them, is because for a short period of time, this is what I said a minute ago, it looked like there will actually be mergers and, you know, consolidation in this industry.

然后，正如我提到的，新冠疫情来了，让情况变得更复杂了。

And then, as I said, there was kind of, you know, COVID coming in and making it a bit more difficult.

但实际情况并不是这样，对吧？

But that's not what happened, right?

至少在美国不是。

I mean, least not in The US.

确实没发生。

Yeah, did not.

我的意思是，伯克希尔当时买了那四家美国大型航空公司。

I mean, again, Berkshire bought, you know, the four big US airlines.

到了2020年春天，新冠疫情又让全世界的航班全都停了，伯克希尔于是把所有股票都抛了。

And then in the spring of twenty twenty, again, COVID grounded the entire world and, you know, Berkshire went out and sold on.

它把整个持仓全部清仓，当然是亏着卖的，明确表示航空业的格局已经变了，而且很可能再也回不去了。

Its entire basket, obviously, at a loss and, you know, basically said that the world has changed for airlines and probably for good.

就连这个行业中最有纪律、最稳健的玩家，也因为一场突如其来的外部冲击，彻底被打垮了。

So even the most disciplined version of this industry, which it probably has been before COVID, got taken out of the wood chat by, you know, a single exogenous shock.

公平地说，我个人觉得，疫情爆发时，很多行业都受到了重创。

So to be fair, I would say personally that many, many industries were hit hard when COVID happened.

毫无疑问，航空业是其中受影响最严重的之一。

Obviously, you know, airlines were certainly up there.

但几乎所有行业都卖不动东西了，除了可能的电商玩家。

But, I mean, pretty much all industries were not selling things and, know, except for the e commerce players maybe.

对所有行业来说，那都是一段艰难的时期。

But it was a tough period for all of them.

我们确实看到了旅行行业的变化，之前在《转型》那一期里也聊过。

And we did see travel, and we talked about it in our Transform episode.

疫情之后，旅行需求明显回升了，所以我觉得这个行业并没有留下持久的创伤。

We did see travel pick up quite significantly after COVID, so I didn't think there was, you know, lasting damage to the industry.

我觉得在疫情期间，恐怕没有哪个行业比航空公司受到的冲击更大了，对吧？

Now, I don't think there was a single industry that was probably hit harder than the airlines during the pandemic, right?

至少对我来说，实在想不出还有哪个行业更惨。

Like it's hard to imagine one, at least for me.

不过我想问问你，我每次坐飞机时一直都在想的一件事。

But I do wanna ask you about this other thing that I've always thought about when I fly.

就是那些会员积分和类似的机制。

And it's these loyalty programs and that sort of stuff.

这些对航空业来说意味着什么？

How does that factor in here, right?

它们让航空业变得更好了吗？

I mean, did that change the airline industry for the better, right?

每次我登机，都觉得很神奇，但也挺烦的——除了机票，还能买这么多额外的东西。

Whenever I fly, it's kind of amazing and also annoying to me, All the things that I can book in addition to my seats, right?

比如，你试图向我推销额外行李、更好的WiFi、优先登机——这些我从来都不在意。

Like, if you're trying to sell me on, extra luggage, better WiFi, priority boarding, which I've never really cared about.

经济舱加座、超级经济舱，反正我也搞不懂这到底什么意思。

Economy Plus, Economy Super Plus, whatever that means.

还有各种各样的里程积分计划。

Then all these different miles programs.

我总觉得，要不是这些能带来实际的经济收益，航空公司根本不会搞这些花样。

I just can't help but think like they wouldn't be doing this if it didn't have some sort of positive impact on the economics.

对吧？

Right?

是的，我也这么觉得。

Yeah, I think so.

我上次从马耳他回来的时候，就专门留意过，机上能买的东西真是五花八门。

I actually thought about this just last time when I traveled back from Malta and there were all these different things that you could buy.

就像你说的，到底谁会花钱买快速登机呢？

And as you said, I don't know who pays for faster boarding.

我觉得这根本说不通。

I just don't seem to think that it makes any sense.

他们跟我说，买了之后行李能放得更靠前，但我真不清楚。

I mean, I was getting told that you can get your luggage in better positions.

我不确定。

I don't know.

也许吧。

Maybe that's true.

我肯定不会多花一分钱买这个。

I probably won't spend an extra dime on that.

不过话说回来，像常旅客计划、里程积分，特别是 Copa 和那些大银行合作推出的信用卡，最近越来越多，这些确实让航空业的盈利情况好了一点。

But, yes, generally, these, you know, frequent flyer programs, the miles and especially the Copa and the credit cards, you know, that in partnership with these big banks and are coming out more often, those actually make the airline industry slightly better.

这其实是第一个在行业里制造了某种转换成本的东西。

So, you know, it's basically the first thing that is introducing somewhat of, you know, a switching cost mode into this industry.

而且很明显，利润率还很高。

And obviously, it's high margin, you know.

还算稳定。

It's relatively stable.

而且，我觉得这可能是唯一能带来一点转换成本的东西。

And again, like, probably the only thing I can think of that gives it somewhat of a switching cost mode.

如果我有美联航的里程计划，每次飞奥马哈或者纽约，我通常都会选美联航，这样能攒里程。

If I have a miles program with, you know, United, most of the time that I fly to, for example, Omaha or New York City, I would choose United so I can get some miles on my card.

我最近跟一个朋友聊过，他说他每年靠飞行攒的里程就能免费休两个假。

And I actually recently talked to a friend who told me that he pays for two vacations a year just with the miles that he earns from flying.

我不确定，但现在我飞得这么多，开始觉得或许该好好规划一下里程和会员计划，而不是像现在这样随便应付。

So I don't know, but now I'm flying so much that I'm thinking I maybe should give more thought to optimizing my miles and loyalty programs than I currently do.

我倒该问问你。

I should probably ask you.

你那么擅长用信用卡优化各种福利，肯定有办法帮我搞懂里程怎么玩，对吧？

I mean, knowing how you tweak the system with all your credit cards, you probably have some good tips for me on how I do the same with Miles, no?

丹尼尔老爱逗我，因为我总在找各种理财小技巧，不过说实话，这些方法对我挺管用的。

Daniel loves to tease me because I'm I'm always looking for these, personal finance hacks, and they've worked pretty well for me, I gotta say.

挺有意思的是，你提到这个，我其实从来没真用里程兑换过旅行。

And it is funny that you've mentioned it because I don't think I've ever actually paid for a trip with Miles, though.

可能是因为我是个价值投资者吧。

And maybe it's just because I'm a value investor.

我就是喜欢清清楚楚知道我到底能拿回多少。

But I love to know exactly how much I'm getting back.

所以我一直选现金返还的卡，比如返现2%，对吧？

So I always opt for the cash back cards where it's like, you know, you get 2% back, right?

你花一百块，就能拿回两块，这我很清楚。

You spend a $100, you're getting $2 back, right?

很实在，我能算得明白。

Very tangible, I can understand that.

但里程计划的兑换比例太复杂了，我完全搞不懂。

But whenever you have these miles programs, they have these like crazy conversion rates, and I have no idea.

比如说，你花一定金额，就能拿五万里程或者积分。

They're like, you know, if you spend this amount of money, you get 50,000 miles or points.

我就在想，这到底是什么意思？

I'm like, what does that mean?

这真让我抓狂。

It drives me crazy.

所以我完全搞不清楚了。

And so I just get lost.

我也说不准。

And I don't know.

我只想知道，最后到手的现金到底能有多少？

I wonder if simply how much cash am I going to have in hand?

这些东西到底值多少钱？

What is this worth?

这一直是我用信用卡的原则。

And yeah, that's always been my approach to credit cards.

不过现在我有一张卡，可以让我在还房贷时累积积分，而且还不收手续费。

But, you know, now I have a card that allows me to earn points on my mortgage payment and, you know, without any transaction fees.

所以我可能很快就会用这些积分换一张机票。

And so I might be redeeming those soon for a trip.

说不定我还真得飞去汉堡，用里程数把这趟旅行安排上。

You know, maybe I'll have to come out to Hamburg and use some miles to do it.

不过咱们还是回到正题吧，让我试着总结一下到目前为止我们聊过的内容。

But to get back on track, I mean, let me take a shot at summarizing what we discussed up until now.

对吧？

Right?

我们已经谈了很多了。

We've covered a lot of ground.

航空公司长期以来一直因为产品同质化、库存易过期、固定成本高、燃油成本大以及周期性波动而亏损资本。

The airline industry has historically destroyed capital due to commoditization, perishable inventory, fixed costs, fuel costs, and cyclicality.

而能突破这种困境的方法其实就那么几种：做成本最低的运营商，拥有无法复制的航线网络，维持高度有序的市场结构，充分挖掘忠诚度计划的收益，再配上一份足够强劲的资产负债表，好撑过每一次周期性的危机。

And the handful of ways to beat that are really just to be the low cost producer, own an uncopyable network position, operate in a very disciplined market structure, you'll milk out these loyalty programs, and then carry a balance sheet that is strong enough to outlast any of these, you know, cyclical crises that emerge.

这也就是为什么我今天要重点推荐Copa航空。

And that's essentially why I'm pitching Copa today.

因为我相信，Copa 不只是其中某一项优势。

Because I do believe that Copa isn't just one of those things.

它实际上是全部都有。

It's actually all of them.

他们是美洲地区成本最低的网络型航空公司。

I mean, they are the lowest cost network carrier in The Americas.

他们的地理位置独一无二，我看不出有谁能够复制。

They sit in a geographic position that I don't see anyone replicate.

他们的资产负债表在拉丁美洲航空业中遥遥领先，而且也是该地区唯一一家在疫情期间没有破产的航空公司。

And they've got by far the strongest balance sheet in Latin American aviation, which is also where they were the one airline in that region that didn't go bankrupt during COVID.

所以，为了更清楚地理解 Copa 到底特殊在哪里，我觉得有必要回溯一下它的历史。

So I think to better understand why and how Copa is actually different, I guess it makes sense to take a look at its history.

它成立于 1947 年，是巴拿马的国家航空公司。

So it was founded back in 1947 as the national airline of Panama.

不过对我们来说，真正有意思的是大约四十年前，佩德罗·哈尔布伦当上了公司 CEO。

For us, though, it starts to get more interesting about forty years ago when Pedro Halbrun became the CEO of the company.

最令人惊讶的是，他至今仍然是首席执行官，已经三十八年了，这在业内几乎是不可能的事。

And the remarkable part about that is that he is still CEO today thirty eight years later, which is pretty much unheard of in the industry.

虽然他不是创始人，但在我看来，如此漫长的任期多少弥补了这一点。

And while he's not a founder, a tenure this long, in my opinion at least, to some extent makes up for that.

不，我觉得这确实算数。

No, I I think that counts.

我正在努力想想。

I'm just trying to think here.

我们投资组合里有没有哪家公司的CEO任职时间比他还长？

Do we have any companies in our portfolio with a CEO who's been at the company for longer than that?

能找到这样的情况实在太罕见了。

It's such a rare thing to find.

是啊，现在可能真找不到了。

Yeah, maybe not anymore.

我的意思是，以前我们至少还能提到伯克希尔。

I mean, year we could have still pointed to Berkshire, obviously.

我们还考察过一些接近的例子，比如康斯特尔软件的马克·伦纳德。

And we looked at some companies that came close like, you know, Mark Leonard at Constellation Software, for example.

不过我现在想不出其他具体的人选了。

But I don't have anyone in mind right now.

确实如此。

Oh, it's true.

其实我们有科斯塔的安迪·弗洛伦斯。

Well, we do have Andy Florence of CoStar, actually.

他任职时间更长，对吧？

He tops that, right?

他当CEO已经差不多四十年了。

He's been the CEO for something like forty years.

我们居然忘了这一点，真是奇怪。

So I don't know how we could forget that.

每当我想到我们研究过的那些公司，它们的运营文化都特别持久，比如马克·伦纳德在康斯特尔软件干了三十多年，巴菲特在伯克希尔干了六十年，还有贝尔纳·阿尔诺从八十年代末就开始掌管LVMH。

And when I think about the companies we've covered, where the operating culture is really durable, like a Mark Leonard at Constellation Software for thirty plus years or a Buffett at Berkshire for sixty years or Bernard Arnaud at LVMH since what the late eighties.

他们都有一个共同点，对吧？

And they all kind of have one thing in common, right?

总有那么一个人，几十年来一直掌舵战略，从不改变方向，对吧？

There's this one person who has been steering the strategy for decades and just refused to change course, right?

而且信念极其坚定。

And very, very high conviction.

这正是我们看好CoStar的原因之一，也是为什么尽管持股比例不大，我们还是把它纳入了投资组合。

And again, that was one of the things we liked about CoStar and why we own it in our portfolio even though it's a smaller position.

这种一贯性带来的优势，足以让你在一些最艰难的行业里占据主导地位。

It's just the consistency that you can get from that can really be enough to dominate some of the toughest industries.

那种临时空降的顾问型CEO，或者只为下一个奖金周期拼命冲业绩的，可给不了你这种东西。

You still don't get that from a CEO who's coming in as an outside consultant or that's trying to hit a number for the next bonus cycle.

通常来说，任期这么长的CEO，往往都持有公司相当大比例的股份。

You know, usually having these long tenured CEOs means that they own a meaningful chunk of equity.

他们自己也身在其中，这种利益绑定，直接影响了他们经营公司的方式。

And so they have skin in the game and that goes hand in hand with how they run their business.

当创始人兼任CEO，并且自己也是大股东时，这种利益高度一致的格局，就能有效解决委托代理问题，真正为股东利益行事。

There's a mindset, there's a principal agent dilemma that gets solved if you have a founder CEO with significant skin in the game running the business truly on behalf of shareholders because they themselves are massive shareholders.

这一点在巴拿马航空身上也同样成立。

And that is certainly also true for Copa.

不过由于他们的股权结构比较复杂，我们不妨留到后面再详细讲。

But since the structure is somewhat complex, I would suggest that we save that for later.

目前至少可以肯定的是，他们完全掌控着整个管理团队。

Just for now, they do own the entire management team.

他们持有相当大比例的公司股份，经济利益也高度绑定。

Once a pretty significant chunk of the equity and, you know, the economic interest in in the company.

如果我们再回头看看巴拿马航空的历史，还有一个重要的转折点。

If we take another look at Copa's history for now, there was another big turning point.

1998年，当时美国的大陆航空收购了巴拿马航空的少数股权。

Because in 1998, Continental Airlines, which was this big US carrier at the time, took a minority stake in Copa.

这次合作为巴拿马航空提供了枢纽辐射模式的蓝图，他们后来的所有发展都是基于这个模式建立的。

And that partnership basically gave Copa the template for the hub and spoke model on which they then built their entire future.

我理解，现在大家提到 Copa 都会想到它这种高度协同的关系，这种关系是从哪儿来的？

And that united relationship that everybody associates with Copa today, as I understand it, where does that come from?

这跟他们当初跟大陆航空的合作有关系吗？

Is that related to this original partnership they had with Continental?

这其实是联合航空和大陆航空合并的结果，发生在2010年。

That was part of the United and Continental merger, which happened in 2010.

所以 Copa 原先跟大陆航空的联盟，就自然转成了跟联合航空的联盟。

So Copa's old Continental alliance simply became a United Alliance.

到了2012年，Copa 正式加入了星空联盟，这个联盟是以联合航空为核心的全球航空网络。

And then in 2012, Copa formally joined the so called Star Alliance, which is, you know, this global airline grouping anchored by United.

这一点其实很关键，因为联合航空在星空联盟里的地位，正是巴拿马能成为旅行枢纽、尤其对美国出发旅客如此重要的原因之一。

And that's pretty important actually because the Star Alliance membership of United is actually a big part of why Panama works so well as a hub for travelers, especially coming out of The United States.

你能不能给我详细讲讲他们的实际业务？

So walk me through the actual business here.

你提到 Copa 的核心是枢纽辐射式的连接模式。

You mentioned that the core of Copa is that it's a hub and spoke connector.

那这到底是什么意思呢？

And so what does that actually mean?

对吧？

Right?

这话说得也太专业了。

I mean, that's some real jargon there.

那这种模式相比传统航空公司的运营方式，到底好在哪里呢？

Also, why is that a better position to be in compared to the more traditional business model for airlines?

没错。

Yes.

枢纽辐射模式其实就是一种航线网络，把一个主要机场作为中转核心。

So a hub and spoke model is basically a routing system where one central airport acts as the primary transfer point.

比如在美国，芝加哥就是联合航空的一个枢纽。

So, for example, Chicago is one of United's hubs in The US.

所以我每次飞奥马哈，都得经由芝加哥转机。

So whenever I fly to Omaha, I go through Chicago.

对于巴拿马航空来说，整个业务的核心其实就是这些中转航班，因为他们位于巴拿马的一个特别有利的位置。

And for Copa, the whole business is really about these connecting flights, because they have a pretty special spot in Panama.

巴拿马正好处在整个美洲大陆最狭窄的地方，可以说是整个半球的地理中心，北美洲在这里收窄，与南美洲相连。

So Panama sits right at the narrowest point of the whole American continent, basically, geographic center of the hemisphere where North America funnels down to meet South America.

巴拿马航空的基地机场——托库门机场，就坐落在这一地带的海平面位置，几乎就在正中央。

And Copa's home airport, Tokumen, sits at the sea level pretty much in the middle of that.

他们飞往超过30个国家的85个城市，遍及南北美洲，所有航班都经过这个机场中转。

So they fly something like 85 cities in over 30 different countries, North and South, and they route all of them through that one airport.

我完全能理解，这个地理位置确实比其他航空公司和枢纽更有优势。

Oh, I definitely could see how that location then seems like an advantage compared to other airlines and hubs.

但这种优势大到能让他们的商业模式在结构上更赚钱吗？

But is that so much of an advantage that they have a structurally more profitable business?

你提到过，所有大型航空公司都有自己的枢纽，也都享有相应的战略优势。

I mean, as you mentioned, all the big airlines have their hubs too, and there are these strategic advantages that come with them.

没错，但这个地理位置实际上为巴拿马航空带来了巨大的成本优势。

That's true, but the location actually creates massive cost benefits for Copa.

我越说越兴奋了。

And I'm actually I'm getting quite excited about this.

我之前跟你说过，我特别喜欢深入研究一个行业，但真开始做之前，我根本没想到会这么着迷。

I think I told you before that I just love diving into the industry and I didn't expect that before I did it.

正因为地理位置优越，Copa 能用波音 737 这种小巧、便宜又高效的飞机，从最南边的布宜诺斯艾利斯到最北边的多伦多，飞遍这 85 个目的地，还不用担心载重受限。

So due to the positioning, Copa can use Boeing seven thirty sevens, which are these small, cheap, and also the most efficient planes to reach essentially every single one of those 85 destinations from, I don't know, Buenos Aires in the Deep South to Toronto in the Far North without a payload penalty.

载重受限？

Pay payload penalty.

说实话，我觉得咱们俩今天都特别有劲头，因为这事儿对我们来说挺新鲜的。

I have to say, I think we were both buzzing with excitement to do this call because it's something new for us.

你做了七十多个企业研究之后，难免会感觉有点重复。

And, you know, after you've covered 70 plus businesses, you know, things can get repetitive.

不过我们做分析的一个特别有意思的地方是，每次都能学到新东西，这些内容平时根本想不到。

And one of the interesting things about our pitches though is that there is always something new that we learn and would have never otherwise thought about.

我完全不知道什么叫载重受限。

And so I have absolutely no idea what a payload penalty is.

我觉得你直到大概两周前还不知道这是什么意思。

And I figured you probably had no idea what that was until like maybe two weeks ago.

但你一谈到 Copa 如何避免payload penalty，我能感觉到你特别兴奋。

But I can feel the excitement in you as you talk about, you know, how Copa is shielded from the payload penalty.

这挺有意思的。

It's interesting.

就像你说的，两周前我还完全不了解这个。

As you said, two weeks ago, didn't know about it.

不过我之前就跟你提过，我真的很喜欢深入研究航空业。

But yeah, again, I told you before the call that I really enjoyed diving into the airline industry.

说到底，作为消费者，很多投资者也都知道航空业是个糟糕的生意，但真正懂它背后的经济逻辑的人其实很少。

So I think it's just one of those things that we all know as consumers and many investors obviously know that's supposed to be this bad business, but few people actually know the economics behind it and why it is the way it is.

我就特别喜欢搞清楚这些事。

And I just love to learn those things.

对吧？

Right?

他们是怎么运作的呢？

Like, how do they work?

我觉得，你得一家公司一家公司地去理解这个世界是怎么运行的。

I would say that you sort of understand how the world works one company at a time.

我觉得我们每周都在做这样的事。

I feel like that's what we're doing here week in week out.

不过，来回答你关于载重限制的问题，每架飞机都有一个允许的最大起飞重量。

But anyway, to answer your question of what a payload penalty is, basically, every plane has a maximum weight that it's allowed to take off at.

这个重量必须涵盖飞机本身、燃油，以及所有能带来收入的载荷，比如乘客、行李和货物。

And that weight has to cover, obviously, the plane itself, the fuel, and everything paying, which means, you know, passengers, bags, and cargo.

在长途航线上，你需要携带大量燃油，留给载客和载货的余量就变少了。

So on a long route, you need so much fuel on board that there's less weight left over for the paying load.

所以，像货物，甚至乘客，都会受影响。

So, you know, cargo and even passengers, for example.

实际操作中，这意味着航空公司只能在货舱里装更少的货物，而在最长的航线上，他们甚至不得不少卖一些票，因为如果把所有座位都卖满，再装上所需的全部燃油，飞机就会超重，根本飞不起来。

So in practice that means the airline carries less cargo in the belly and on the very longest routes they actually have to sell fewer tickets than the plane can physically hold because if they sold every seat and loaded all the fuel needed the plane would literally be too heavy to take off.

所以航线越长，你实际上就让越多收入留在了地面上。

So the longer the route, the more revenue you're literally leaving on the ground.

而哥斯达黎加航空的地理位置巧妙避开了这个问题，因为巴拿马地处中心，他们的航班没有一个是超长航线。

And Copa's geographic basically sidesteps that whole problem because Panama is so central, again, none of Copa's flights are actually ultra long haul.

所有这些中等距离的航段都从中心向外辐射。

So there are all these medium length hops radiating out from the middle.

因此，哥斯达黎加航空能用这种小型、便宜的单通道飞机——波音737——运营出一张覆盖整个大陆的长途网络。

So Copa gets to serve this continent spanning long haul looking network using these small, you know, cheap single aisle planes, the Boeing seven thirty seven.

而如果竞争对手想直接连接北美和南美，他们就得用大型昂贵的宽体客机，因为他们没有巴拿马这样的枢纽位置。

Whereas if a competitor tried to connect, say, North America and South America directly, they would need big expensive wide body jets to do it just because they're not located in Panama.

还有一件事在不断叠加，说实话，我一看就觉得这像是一种网络效应。

There's also this compounding thing going on, which honestly looks like a form of network effect when I look at it.

每新增一个目的地，哥斯达黎加航空不只是多了一条航线。

So every new destination Copa adds to the hub doesn't just create one new route.

而是实际上创造了大量新的航线组合。

It actually creates a whole lot of new routes.

对吧？

Right?

成百上千条航线。

Many and many of them.

比如，如果Copa新增了阿根廷的伊瓜苏港——他们现在还没开通，但正在推进——那乘客就能从几十个不同的国家和城市飞过去，而不仅仅是一个起点。

So if Copa adds, I don't know, Puerto Iguazua in Argentina, which is a destination they currently don't have, but are actually working on getting that onboarded, then you can fly from dozens of different countries and starting points to Puerto Rico, Zohua, not just one point.

听起来可能挺明显，我知道，但这对运营成本来说可是个巨大的优势。

So it sounds obvious, I know, but, you know, that's a pretty big thing for the economics.

Copa从这85个目的地，一共能组合出超过5000个可销售的航线对。

So Copa generates over 5,000 marketable city pairs out of those 85 destinations.

这就是我们正在说的。

That's what

我们说的就是这个。

we're talking about here.

天哪。

Oh my gosh.

你真把我给点燃了。

You're really getting me excited here.

我本来根本没打算对这家航空公司的股票这么兴奋的。

I I had no intention of being so excited about an airline stock heading into this.

但真的，你让我热血沸腾了。

But, no, you're getting me fired up.

而且，这个网络效应让我有点想到CoStar，对吧？

And, I mean, the network effect here reminds me a little bit of CoStar, right?

CoStar每新增一个房产数据，平台对现有用户的价值就提升一点。

Every new property added to CoStar's database makes the platform a little more valuable for existing customers.

所以这个网络的价值增长速度，远超新增数据本身。

And so the value of the network compounds faster than the inputs basically.

Copa也是类似，每新增一个目的地，可不只是多了一条航线，对吧？

And it's similar for Copa where each new destination Copa adds, it's not just one new route, right?

而是能跟网络里所有其他城市都连上。

It adds a connection to every other city already in the network.

所以，看到航空公司也有这种效应，真的挺有意思的，对吧？

And so, I don't know, it's pretty cool to see that dynamic in an airline, right?

要不是我们之前深入研究过这么多企业，我根本想不到能用这种思维模型来看待航空公司。

It's not really a mental model I would have been able to apply if we hadn't have studied a lot of the businesses that we have.

既然说到这儿了，咱们要不要再深入看看财务数据？

And so with all that, how about we dig a bit deeper into the financials here?

说实话，我对航空公司的收入构成和利润率其实只有个模糊的概念。

Because to be honest, I only have a vague idea of what the revenue breakdown of an airline should look like and what the margins would actually be for the business.

这多少也受了一些固有偏见的影响，总觉得航空公司是门糟糕的生意。

And that comes with some biases about having been told about what a terrible business airlines are.

但我觉得，对Copa来说，这种说法并不完全成立。

And I don't think that's entirely true with Copa.

其实收入结构比你想象的要简单得多。

Well, the revenue is actually as simple as one would think.

大概95%的收入都来自乘客票务销售。

So the overwhelming majority, which is around 95% revenue, is from selling seats to passengers.

剩下的大约3%是货运，再有2%左右就是其他所有收入了。

Then only about 3% is cargo, and the last 2% or so is all the rest.

比如忠诚度计划，就是从这些地方来的。

So, you know, that's where you find the loyalty program, for example.

货运和这些增值服务——像忠诚度计划之类的——利润率都很高。

The great thing about cargo, and let's call them value added services, so loyalty and all that sort of stuff, is that they are high margin.

当Copa用波音737把乘客从一个城市运到另一个城市时，飞机货舱里还有空位，这些空间可以用来运货。

So when Copa flies a passenger seven thirty seven from one city to another, the belly of that aircraft has space in it, which is sold to ship freight.

因为这部分几乎不增加成本，所以利润率非常高。

And since it comes at no additional cost, that's pretty high margin revenue.

对吧？

Right?

最近Copa也在更有意识地拓展货运业务，比如专门买了货机，货运收入增长得相当不错。

So Copa has also been leaning into cargo more deliberately lately, so they've added, you know, dedicated freighter aircraft and cargo revenue, has been growing quite nicely.

我记得最近几个季度，年同比增长大概有20%。

I think we talked about 20% year over year in recent quarters.

但从整体来看，这仍然只是很小的一部分。

It's still obviously small in the overall picture.

这占总收入的3%，但几乎是零成本的额外收益。

Again, it's only 3% of the total, but it's basically free optionality.

对吧？

Right?

你不能只是因为买了 Copa 的股票就以为稳了。

It's not that you just, you know, get by buying Copa.

这并不是一个你可以押注的项目。

It's not something that you bet on.

我觉得这跟 Copa 的会员计划挺像的。

I think it's pretty similar to Copa's loyalty program.

它叫 Connect Miles。

It's called Connect Miles.

因为 Copa 是星空联盟的成员，这些里程可以通用于整个全球联盟，比只是一家巴拿马的小航司有用多了。

And because Copa is part of this United Star Alliance, those miles plug into the whole global alliance, which makes them way more useful as if it would just be, you know, this small Panamanian airline.

单独来看，常旅客计划或许是个不错的忠诚度工具，但真正赚钱的，就像我之前说的，是这个Copa品牌的信用卡。

So on its own, a frequent flyer program is maybe a nice loyalty tool, but the real money is, as I said before, in this Copa branded credit card.

银行发行带有Copa品牌的信用卡，客户在任何地方刷卡消费，银行则根据持卡人累积的里程数向Copa支付费用。

And that's the deal where a bank issues a Copa branded card, then customers spend on it basically everywhere, and then the bank pays Copa for the miles that those cardholders earn.

但这两个板块的问题在于，规模都太小了。

But for both of these segments, the problem is that they're pretty tiny.

对吧？

Right?

就算核心业务每年只增长个位数，货运却能增长20%以上。

I mean, even when the core business only grows mid single digits, you've got cargo growing at 20% plus.

要等它真正对整体收入产生明显影响，还得等很久。

It's gonna take a long time before that actually starts impacting overall revenue.

所以我能想象，这里的增长空间其实也是有限的。

And so I can imagine that also that there's still a limit to how much growth is achievable here.

对吧？

Right?

飞机上的空间就那么多，你手里的资源是极其有限的。

Since you only have so much space on a plane, you're operating with a very finite resource.

我觉得这跟会员计划有点类似。

And I would think in a way that it's similar to with the loyalty program.

对。

Yep.

说得完全对。

That's completely right.

你的意思是，你不能指望买下 Copa 就能等着它转型成纯粹的高利润信用卡业务，毕竟那部分本来也不归我们管。

Mean, you can't buy Copa thinking you will see some mix shift that turns this, you know, into only high margin credit card business of which we own and off anyway.

归根结底，你还是在买一家航空公司。

So you're still buying an airline at the end of the day.

没错。

That's true.

我知道我们的一些 Mastermind 会员特别希望我们聊聊瑞安航空，它也是少数几家能盈利的航空公司之一。

So I know that some of our Mastermind members have really wanted to see us cover Ryanair, which is also famous for being one of the few profitable airlines.

而且它可能是全球运营效率最高的航空公司之一。

And it's probably known as maybe being the most efficiently run airline out there.

他们在这方面确实有不错的口碑。

And, you know, they have a bit of a reputation for that efficiency.

所以这也让他们在社交媒体上有了非常特别的存在感，对吧？

So that has led to them having, you know, very interesting social media presence, right?

他们经常拿那些取消的乘客服务开玩笑，结果在网上成了一个热门梗。

Where they joke a lot about, you know, the accommodations that they cut out for passengers, and it's become sort of a meme online.

但瑞安航空的运营效率和盈利能力，跟哥斯达黎加航空相比怎么样？

But how does Ryanair's efficiency and profitability profile compare to Copa?

我猜哥斯达黎加航空在社交媒体上肯定比不上他们，但在实际业务上，两者差距大吗？

I imagine Copa can't beat them on the social media front, but with the actual business, how does it compare?

是吧？

Right?

哥斯达黎加航空也有同样的效率吗？还是说它没必要像瑞安那样极端地压缩成本？

Is Copa similarly efficient or does it not need to be as extreme in cost cutting?

这要归功于它在业务定位上已有的竞争优势。

Thanks to these competitive advantages that it already has in terms of the business positioning.

所以它能在社交媒体上跟别人一较高下。

So it can compete on the social media front.

可能唯一能跟它比的就只有多邻国了，那家公司在这方面也很厉害。

Probably the only company that can is Duolingo, which is also quite good at it.

不过，这确实是我在研究这个话题时发现的最有趣的一点。

But, yeah, this was actually one of the more interesting things that I came across when I started looking at it.

所有航空公司都会公布一个叫CASM的指标，也就是每可用座位英里的成本。

So airlines all report a metric called CASM, c a s m, which stands for cost per available seat mile.

简单说，就是航空公司飞一英里、载一个座位要花多少钱。

Basically, what it costs the airline to fly one seat, one mile.

还有一个叫x fuel CASM的版本，数字一样，只是把燃油成本剔除了。

And there's a version of this called x fuel CASM, which is the same number, but obviously with the fuel cost taken out.

在比较航空公司的时候，真正关键的是这个剔除燃油后的数据。

And that's the one that actually matters when you're comparing airlines.

你看，如果看巴拿马航空的数据，它在这一指标上比95%的航空公司都要好。

And as you can see, if you look at the numbers for Copa, they are better than 95% of airlines on that metric.

那为什么要把燃油成本剔除呢？

So why strip out the fuel costs though?

燃油成本明明是真实存在的，对吧？

Because that is a real cost, right?

那为什么不把这笔开销算进去呢？

Like why would you not wanna account for that?

燃油成本确实是真实支出，但每家航空公司的燃油单价都差不多。

It is a real cost, but every airline pays pretty much the same per gallon for fuel.

因为油价是由全球石油市场决定的，我之前也说过，没有哪家公司能左右它。

Because you know, the price is set by the global oil market, as I said before, and none of them really controls it.

所以整个行业燃油成本的涨跌都是同步的，完全取决于原油价格的波动。

So what that means is that fuel costs go up and down for the entire industry at the same time, depending on where oil is trading.

如果巴拿马航空某一年成本看起来很好，下一年又变差了，那主要反映的只是那年油价高低而已。

So if Copa's total cost looks great in one year and then bad in the next, that mostly just tells you about whether oil was cheap or expensive that year.

所以这并不能真正反映Copa的运营到底好不好。

So it doesn't really tell you anything about whether Copa is actually a better or worse run business.

要判断哪家航空公司的成本结构更优，就得看除了燃油以外的所有成本，这正是剔除燃油后的单位成本指标所体现的。

So to figure out which airline has the better cost structure, you gotta look at everything except fuel, and that's essentially what ex fuel CASM gives you.

目前Copa的单位成本大约是5.8美分，要说明一下，我知道的其他低于6美分的航空公司，只有你提到的瑞安航空和威兹航空。

So Copa is currently at about 5.8¢, and to put that into context, the only other airlines that I'm aware of that operate below 6¢ are Ryanair, which you mentioned, and Wizz Air.

另外，我觉得还有两家规模较小的拉丁美洲航空公司，成本也低于6美分。

And then I think there are also two pretty small Latin American airlines that also, you know, operate sub 6¢.

而Copa已经多年维持在这个水平了。

And Copa has been at that level for years now.

比如燃油价格飙升、波音737 MAX 9停飞，那是在2024年，很多飞机，尤其是波音的机型，都不得不停在地面。

So, you know, the fuel spike, the MAX nine grounding, which, you know, was a time in 2024 where a lot of those planes, especially the Boeing ones, had to stay on ground.

这些因素，再加上全球工资上涨，都没能压低Copa的利润率，也没让它的成本结构飙升。

All of that, and even global wage inflation, all of that couldn't bring down the margins that Copa was earning and, you know, didn't spike their cost structure.

所以这可不是运气好才碰上的一年。

So it's not just one lucky year.

这其实是他们运营模式中固有的一部分。

It's actually something that they've built into the way their airline operates.

他们通过只运营一种机型实现了这一点。

And they've done that by only flying one family of aircraft.

听起来就是这样的。

This is what it sounds like.

波音737。

The Boeing seven thirty seven.

我猜这能省下大量成本，因为他们只需要一种飞行员培训、一套备件、一套统一的维护流程等等。

And I imagine that saves a ton on cost because they only need one type of pilot training, one set of spare parts to use, one really overall maintenance procedure, and so on.

而像联合航空或美国航空这样的公司，既有波音，也有空客，还有支线飞机和宽体机，得同时维护所有这些机型。

And so if you compare that to a United or an American, they've got Boeing's, they've got Airbus's, they've got regional jets, they've got wide body jets, and they have to maintain all of that in parallel.

你可以想象，维护、服务和这么多不同变量加在一起有多复杂、多昂贵，而 Copa 完全不用操心这些。

So you just imagine how complicated and expensive the maintenance and the servicing and all of those different variables come in and Copa just really doesn't have to deal

这些问题。

with that.

只是复杂而已。

It's only complex.

我们这儿还有一位飞行员朋友，我本来不想提这家航空公司，怕涉及保密问题，但他跟我说过一件事：当我告诉他我要做一期关于航空公司的节目时，他完全想不通飞机怎么能做到每天准点起降。他说，每天出问题的事儿多得数不清，可他坐在飞机上，根本看不出这些麻烦是怎么被解决的。想想看，他天天在地面工作，居然说出这种话，真不算是什么鼓舞人心的评价。

We also have a member who's a pilot and I don't want to say anything about the airline just because I don't know if we were allowed to, but he told me when I told him that I will cover an airline that he just does not understand how they can make it happen that planes actually go up in the sky and come down on schedule all the time because he says there's so many things that go wrong all the time that, you know, him just sitting in the airplane, he has no idea how all of that works out, which, you know, if he's on the ground every single day, is not the most encouraging thing that he could have said.

但Copa还有个瑞安航空没有的优势，尤其是跟美国的航空公司比，那就是人力成本。

But another advantage Copa has that Ryanair, for example, doesn't have, and especially over The US carriers, is labor costs.

巴拿马的工资水平明显低于美国或欧盟。

So Panamanian wages are obviously lower than US or EU wages.

2025年，Copa的人力成本只占营收的14%，而一家大型美国航司通常要花掉营收的25%来支付工资。

And in 2025, Copa's wage bill was about 14% of revenues, and a big US airline would usually spend about 25% of revenue on those wages.

而且，Copa的大部分乘客其实都不是巴拿马人，只是经由巴拿马中转去别的地方，所以他们收的是国际航线的票价——全球旅客的票价通常更高，但付给机组人员的却是巴拿马本地的工资。

And since most of Copa's customers aren't Panamanian but just connecting through Panama on their way somewhere else, Copa is actually benefiting because they are collecting international ticket prices, which, you know, tend to be higher from a global customer base while paying Panamanian wages to its crew.

这又是他们一个全球性的优势。

That's another, you know, global advantage for them.

还有一点叫‘完成率’，说实话，我之前压根没想过这个，直到开始研究这些事才注意到。

And then there's the so called completion factor, which I honestly hadn't even, you know, thought much about before I started researching all of this.

完成率其实就是看有多少航班真正顺利起飞并安全降落。

And the completion factor basically shows you how many flights actually go into the sky and make it to the ground safe, of course.

说的就是这个意思。

That's what it says.

咱们先休息一下，听听今天赞助商的消息。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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Preston Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

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期货市场变化很快。

The futures markets are moving fast.

通过Plus500，你可以了解原油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

With Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有不少动态。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台用起来特别简单，随时随地都能用手机交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

只需一百美元就能入门，立刻参与交易。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的东西了吗？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，点几下就能下单交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

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No risk, no pressure.

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With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

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期货交易存在亏损风险，并不适合所有人。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

并非所有申请人都能通过审核。

Not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500。

Plus 500.

交易，多一点优势。

It's trading with a plus.

我每天都在研究全球顶尖企业的财务数据，很快就能看出一个明显的规律。

Spending my days digging through the financials of the world's best businesses, and one thing becomes obvious fast.

真正成功的公司，都是那些能清晰掌握自身运营状况的企业。

The companies that win are the ones that can actually see what's happening inside their own operation.

现在大家都说，你每天推迟布局人工智能，就会落后两天。

And these days, they say that every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.

竞争正在加速，但幸运的是，接下来是NetSuite。

The competition is only moving faster, but fortunately, there's Netsuite next.

你可能已经听说过NetSuite，这个由AI驱动的商业管理套件，能安全地整合你所有的数据。

You probably already know Netsuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all your data.

它是一个统一的平台，把财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理全都整合到一个可信的单一数据源，已有四万三千多家企业信赖它。

It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.

NetSuite Next，是商业运作方式的又一次巨大飞跃。

Netsuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done.

因为现在，AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。

Because now AI is built into everything you do.

它针对多种行业做了定制，完全贴合你企业的实际运营方式。

It's customized for a wide range of industries, so it supports the way your business actually works.

无论你的公司年收入是几百万还是几亿，现在都该升级到NetSuite Next，让你的业务真正与AI结合。

Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, it's time for Netsuite Next, where your business meets AI.

说实话，如果我正在经营一家快速成长的企业，需要把财务和运营整合到一个平台上，我一定会选NetSuite。

And look, if I were running a growing company and needed to get my financials and operations onto one platform, Netsuite is exactly what I'd use.

这是历史上第一次，你可以免费试用 Netsuite Next。

For the first time ever, you can try Netsuite Next for free.

如果你的年收入达到七位数以上，就去 netsuite.aitip 看看。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.aitip.

专为各行业打造，随时准备进入董事会，这就是 netsuite.aitip。

Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom, that's netsuite.aitip.

在我加入这个投资者播客之前，我脑子里全是各种担心。

Before I joined the investors podcast, every what if you can imagine was running through my head.

如果我跟这个听众群体不匹配怎么办？

What if I'm not the right fit for this audience?

如果我在镜头前紧张得说不出话怎么办？

What if I freeze up on camera?

如果我跟不上这里人们期待的分析深度怎么办？

What if I can't keep

跟不上这里人们期待的分析深度怎么办？

up with the level of analysis people here expect?

不过，无论如何我选择相信自己，这成了我做过最明智的决定之一。

Well, betting on myself anyways turned out to be one of the best decisions I've ever made.

说实话，要是当初有个人像Shopify支持商家那样站在我这边，那段起步的日子肯定没那么煎熬。

And I'll tell you, those early days would have been a lot less stressful with a partner in my corner the way Shopify is for the businesses that work with them.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台支撑。

Shopify is the e commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world.

美国百分之十的电商交易都靠它完成。

And 10% of all e commerce in The US.

从Allbirds、Gymshark这样的知名品牌，到刚刚起步的小品牌，都在用它。

From household names like Allbirds and Gymshark to brands just getting off the ground.

你可以从他们的设计工作室开始，直接用上百个现成模板，不用任何设计经验，就能打造一个和品牌风格完全一致的精美网店。

You get started with their design studio, hundreds of ready to use templates that help you build a beautiful online store that actually matches your brand with no design background required.

它还内置了大量AI工具，帮你处理那些你根本没想到要做的琐事——写产品描述、拟标题，甚至优化产品图片。

It's also packed with AI tools that handle the work you didn't realize you'd have to do, writing product descriptions, headlines, even enhancing your product photography.

那要是你卡住了怎么办？

And what if you get stuck?

只需要24.07美元，还有屡获殊荣的客服团队全程帮你搞定。

Well, is around $24.07 with award winning customer support to walk you through it.

现在就用Shopify，把那些‘要是……会怎样’变成现实吧。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

前往shopify.com/tip，注册每月1美元的试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial at shopify.com/tip.

访问shopify.com/tip。

Go to shopify.com/tip.

就是shopify.com slash tip。

That's shopify dot com slash tip.

好了，我们继续节目。

Alright, back to the show.

我知道你有过航班迟迟无法起飞的经历，丹尼尔。

I know you have some experience with flights that don't make it off the ground, Daniel.

你可不会轻易放过这个话题，不过你现在也有了丹麦的经历，对吧？

You won't let that go, although you now also have the Denmark experience, right?

为了让大家有个背景了解，去年我们去奥马哈的时候，我一开始连着被取消了三趟航班，最后不得不在法兰克福多住了一晚，第二天又被告知下一班飞机也取消了，我凌晨五点就爬起来，结果等了六个小时才登机。

So just for context for the audience, last year when we traveled to Omaha, I was canceled on, I think it was three flights initially, and, you know, eventually had to spend an extra night in Frankfurt, and was canceled even on my next flight, the next next day, for which I woke up at 5AM in the morning, only to start flying six hours later.

但你知道的，那

But, yeah, you know, the

真是够惨的。

It was brutal.

真是够惨的。

It was brutal.

我估计在这档播客里已经提过六次这事了，这也说明我被这经历搞得有多心理阴影。

And I think I also mentioned it here on the podcast like six times by now, which should show you the PTSD I got from this experience.

所以，说实话，我对这种情况真是再熟悉不过了。

So, yeah, unfortunately, you know, I've got plenty of personal experience with that.

但这不只是让乘客觉得烦。

But it's not just annoying for the passenger.

实际上，航空公司也损失惨重。

It actually costs the airline a whole lot of money.

根据我看到的数据，一次航班取消可能会让航空公司损失两万五千到六万美元。

So from what I read, a single cancellation can cost the airline something like 25 to $60,000.

算上你已经付过的机组人员工资、改签费用、住宿开销——就像我这种被困的乘客——所有这些加起来。

Once you add up, you know, the crew you've already paid, the rebooking, hotels, as for example me, the stranded passenger in this case, all of that.

而且飞机根本没起飞，自然是一分钱收入都没有。

And, you know, the plane never took off, so you made zero revenue on it, obviously.

更别提还得花一大笔钱来收拾善后。

And on top of that, you spend a bunch of money cleaning up the mess.

所以在航空业，最赚钱的航空公司其实是那些能稳定让飞机按时起飞、再安全降落的公司。

So in this industry, the most profitable carrier is actually just the one that consistently brings its planes into the air and obviously self down again.

哥斯达黎加航空就是全球这方面的佼佼者。

So Copa is one of the best in the world at this.

他们的航班准点执行率高达99.8%。

They are at a completion rate of about 99.8%.

每一千个计划航班里，只有两个会被取消。

So out of every 1,000 flights scheduled, only two don't happen.

瑞安航空的准点率也差不多在这个范围。

Ryanair is also in a similar range.

我觉得美国那些老牌大型航司大概在97%到98%之间。

I think the big US legacy carriers tend to be at around 97 to 98%.

你可能会想，99.8%和97%看起来差别也不大，有什么了不起的？

And then you might think, well, okay, 99.8 compared to 97%, what's the big deal?

但航空公司航班数量这么多，这个差距在实际操作中可就大了。

But because airlines run so many flights, that gap is actually huge in practice.

如果一家像 Copa 这样规模的航司，准点率从99.8%降到97%，每年就会多出两万八千次取消。

So if a carrier of Copa size ran at 97% instead of 99.8%, that sounds like 28,000 extra cancellations every single year.

按每次取消四万美元算，光是取消带来的额外成本就超过十亿美元了。

So at $40 a pop, you're talking about a billion dollars in extra costs just from cancellations.

所以，这种看似微不足道的运营细节，实际上是整个行业最大的成本差异之一。

So this thing that sounds like a small operational detail is actually one of the biggest cost differences in the entire business.

想想看，这些利润居然能这么快就消失不见，还真有点吓人。

Sort of scary to think about how quickly all of these profits can just evaporate.

同时，也没有理由认为Copa的这一比率会下降。

And at the same time, there's no reason to believe that rate should go down in Copa's case.

听你这么说，我几乎觉得这好得有点不真实了，毕竟这还是一家航空公司。

You know, from everything you're telling me, it almost sounds like too good to be true, considering we're still looking at an airline after all.

但对我来说，关键还是得搞清楚现在的护城河，这说法虽然老生常谈，但确实很重要。

But, you know, for me, it's all about figuring out the moat today, which is kind of cliche, but it is an important thing to think about.

我们知道，航空业的进入门槛其实并不高，尽管你一开始可能会想，为什么呢？

We know that the barriers to entry in the airline business are actually low, even though you might initially ask yourself, you know, why?

毕竟这可是个资本密集型行业。

Because it's such a capital intensive industry.

你可能会觉得进入门槛应该非常高才对。

You would think that the barriers to entry would be very high.

对吧？

Right?

我要是明天就想开家航空公司，根本不知道从哪儿下手，但我听说，相比其他同等规模的项目，融资开航空公司反而相对容易。

I wouldn't know where to begin with starting an airline business tomorrow, but I have heard that it's actually comparatively easy to get financing for an airline compared to other projects of similar sizes.

那这是为什么呢？

And why is that?

银行喜欢贷款给那些有高质量实物资产作抵押的项目，这样贷款才有保障。

Well, banks like to lend when there are high quality physical assets to lend against that are backing up the value of the loans.

在这种情况下，还有什么比全新的飞机更好的抵押品呢？

And so in this case, you couldn't really have higher quality collateral to lend against than new aircraft, right?

这些资产价值很高，使用寿命也很长。

These are very valuable assets that have long lifetime uses.

所以它们的折旧速度相对缓慢。

And so the depreciation is relatively slow.

至少跟买车不一样，你刚开出经销商大门，车就贬值了。

At least compared to, you know, you buy a car and then you drive it off the lot.

有个老说法是，车一开走，价值就砍掉一半。

And the old joke is that it, you know, loses half its value.

就像巴菲特说过的，很多人想挤进航空业，正因如此，资本才不断涌进来。

And, you know, as Buffett once said, there are a lot of people who want to be involved in the airline industry and that's why it keeps attracting capital.

那我们接着来看看巴菲特对此说过的一些话。

And so let's go ahead and jump to some comments that Buffett has made on that.

而且很多人都乐在其中。

And people love doing it.

这事儿让人觉得特别有激情。

It's exciting to people.

你很容易就能把这想法卖出去。

And you can sell the idea.

过去二十五年到三十年里，我大概收到过十几份提案，都是想以各种方式进入航空业的，其中还真有几个人干成了。

I've had probably a dozen proposals over the last twenty five or thirty years from people that wanna get into the airline business one way or the other, and a number of them have.

不知为啥，这行业听起来特别有吸引力。

It's sexy for some reason.

我的意思是，如果你去某个大老板的办公室，说想跟他聊聊新飞机的事，门一下子就开了。

I mean, it you know, if you go to the office of some mister big CEO and say, wanna talk to you about this new airplane, you get in the door, you know.

但你要去跟他聊运煤之类的事，那就完全是另一回事了。

Mean, if you wanna talk to him about hauling coal or something, it's a little different.

所以这是一个特别吸引人的行业，你很容易就能为一家新航空公司筹到资金。

So it it is a business that attracts people and you can go out and raise money for a new airline.

当我看地图的时候，我会想到哥斯达黎加，还有尼加拉瓜，它们可能和巴拿马一样拥有地理上的优势。

So when I look at a map, I see Costa Rica and perhaps Nicaragua that could have a similar geographical advantage over other airlines.

所以我想问的是，如果有人跑到这些地方，照搬科帕航空的模式，会不会对他们的商业模式和竞争优势构成威胁？

And so my question is, is that a threat that could challenge Copa's business model and and their competitive advantages if somebody goes to one of these other geographies and just copies their playbook?

实际上，

Actually,

我第一件事就是打开地图，看看——虽然有点天真——还有哪些地方因为靠近巴拿马，也可能复制他们的模式。

first thing that I did was also just opening a map and seeing, okay, well, very naively, what other places could copy their business model just because they're close to Panama?

但总的来说，这其实很难做到，因为地理因素只是整个模式中的一小部分。

And I would generally say it's very tough to do, and also the geography is really only one part of the mode.

我不敢说这是个飞轮效应，但确实有几样东西相互配合，才形成了科帕航空现在的优势。

I wouldn't call it a flywheel exactly, but there are a couple of things that work together to create the mode that I see for Copa.

其中一点是地理优势，但只是因为它让科帕航空能用波音737飞遍整个美洲。

So one of them is the geography, but only because it lets Copa fly the seven thirty seven and reach the whole hemisphere.

我们之前聊过的所有这些因素。

So everything we already talked about.

在我看来，更大的优势其实是他们作为地区最大枢纽的先发优势和规模效应。

The bigger piece of the mode, in my opinion, is actually the first mover and the scale advantages they already have as the region's biggest hub.

连接型枢纽只有在规模足够大时才有价值。

So a connecting hub is obviously only worth anything once it's already big.

对吧？

Right?

这就像个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题。

So it's a kind of, you know, chicken and egg problem.

你需要大量旅客才能形成密集的航线网络，但又得有密集的网络才能吸引这么多旅客。

You need a lot of travelers to create a dense system, but you need a dense system to attract a lot of travelers.

如果你真想现在挑战巴拿马航空，就得一下子开通大约80个目的地，同时安排好所有航线的班次，然后连续好几年烧钱，却看不到任何利润。

So if you actually wanted to challenge Copa today, you would have to stand up something like 80 destinations and all the frequencies between them more or less at once and just burn cash for years without any profits to show for it.

只是为了达到那个网络效应开始发挥作用的起点。

So just to get the starting line where the network effect would eventually kick in.

这让我想到优步和Lyft之间的竞争态势，一般来说，两家打车的定价差不多。

You know, it does remind me of the dynamic between Uber and Lyft where generally speaking, they can both charge the same rate for a ride.

但对优步来说，每单都能带来利润。

Yet for Uber, that ride will add profitably to their bottom line.

而对Lyft来说，每单却是在亏钱，这看起来有点反常。

Whereas for Lyft, it adds to their losses, which seems like it doesn't make sense.

但真正的原因是，优步已经达到了Lyft还没达到的规模。

But the reason it happens is because Uber has reached a scale that Lyft hasn't.

所以成本分摊的方式，对优步来说明显更有利。

So the way the costs are spread out is is more advantageous basically for Uber.

不过我不想再扯回运营杠杆这个话题了。

But I I don't wanna drag us back into a discussion of operating leverage.

总之，根据你描述的情况，我觉得这明显是个网络效应的陷阱——一旦对手在市场上站稳了脚跟，后来者就很难撼动了。

But anyways, my conclusion from what you're describing is basically that this is a classic network effects trap, where it's very, very hard to compete with a dominant competitor once they have an existing position in the market.

确实，情况就是这么个情况。

That's solely how the dynamic seems to be.

而且，从财务表现的历史记录来看，这一点也得到了验证，对吧？

And you know, it's also proven just by the track record of the financials, right?

过去二三十年，他们的财务数据一直非常亮眼。

They look fantastic for the last twenty, thirty years.

所以很明显，别人根本没法复制他们所拥有的东西。

So it very apparently seems to be impossible to copy what they have.

第二个难以打破的壁垒是定价。

The second barrier, which is also really hard to disrupt, is pricing.

就像我们说的，Copa的成本基础低于六美分，也就是我们之前提到的CAS M。

As we said, Copa has a sub 6¢ cost base, you know, based on CASM, what we talked about earlier.

这可能是航空业里最重要的指标。

This probably most important metric in the industry.

所以竞争对手几乎不可能比他们运营得更高效，这意味着你为了追赶他们，只会烧更多的钱，而Copa只要持续压低价格，就能把对手慢慢耗死。

So it would be almost impossible for a competitor to actually run more efficiently, which means you would be burning even more money trying to catch up because Copa can just bleed the competition out and undercut their prices the whole way.

当然，潜在的问题是，如果真有公司愿意在几年内大笔烧钱，Copa的利润率还是会因此被拖累很多年。

Obviously, the downside there is that if companies should come in and be ready to burn a lot of money over a couple of years, it would still result in a margin drag for many years for Copa.

所以即使 Copa 能撑下来，竞争对手却破产了，之后还是会经历好几年的利润压力。

So even if Copa survives and the competitor goes bankrupt, eventually, there will be a series of years with margin pressure.

就像我们之前说的，航空业里公司破产不像其他行业那样常见。

And as we talked about before, bankruptcies don't happen in the airline industry as naturally as they do in other industries.

税收和汇率也是很大的优势。

Taxes and currency are also a big advantage.

巴拿马不对境外收入征税，而 Copa 的收入几乎全部来自境外，因为他们的乘客大多在两个其他国家之间飞行。

Panama doesn't tax foreign source income, which is basically all of Copa's income, because their passengers are mostly flying between two other countries.

而且巴拿马用的是美元。

And so Panama also uses the US dollar.

所以不用担心汇率风险，也不用担心资本管制的问题。

So there's no currency risk and no capital controls that you have to worry about.

在新兴市场地区，这一点差别非常关键。

And that is a big difference maker when you're talking about an emerging markets region of the world.

境外收入完全免税。

No tax on foreign income.

听上去我真该去了解一下巴拿马的房价了。

Sounds like I might need to look at some house prices in Panama.

我就是随口一说。

I'm just kidding.

这确实是实情。

It's certainly true.

这是个优势，别的竞争对手根本没法比。

It's an advantage, you know, that most competitors can obviously not compete with.

就像你之前提到的，我们一直努力平衡对这些新兴市场的敞口。

And as you said, you know, before that we always try to balance out our exposure to these emerging markets.

如果你所在的市场用的是美元，而且整个体系都围绕美元运转，这对投资者来说显然大有帮助。

So if you are in a market that actually uses US dollars and is kind of packed with that system, it obviously helps a lot from, you know, an investor standpoint.

最后一点，这还是个建立在信任和人脉基础上的生意。

Then last but not least, this is also a business built on trust and relationships.

航线基本上都是政府间谈判决定的，而且通常要求航空公司必须由本国拥有和控制。

So, you know, flight routes are basically always negotiated government to government, and generally require the airline to be nationally owned and controlled.

巴拿马花了数十年时间建立起这些关系，我看哥斯达黎加，或者这个地区其他任何国家，短期内都没法复制这一点。

So Panama has spent only decades building all of these relationships, and I just don't see Costa Rica or pretty much anyone else in the region to replicate that anytime soon.

事实上，你也能看到哥斯达黎加正在走另一条路。

Actually, you also see that Costa Rica is going in another direction.

他们现在的航空运力增长速度确实比巴拿马快，但主要集中在旅游业上。

So they are growing their air capacity faster than Panama is right now, but mostly focused on tourism.

人们飞去哥斯达黎加是为了度假，而不是中转，而巴拿马恰恰相反。

So, you know, people fly to Costa Rica for vacation, not to pass through it, which is the case for Panama.

对于其他许多拉美国家来说，政治不稳定，再加上不少国家已经受到各种形式的制裁，想取代巴拿马在南北美洲航空中转中的核心地位，几乎是不可能的。

And I guess for many other Latin American countries, the political instability and the fact that many of them are already sanctioned in some way, shape or form makes it almost impossible for them to step up and take Panama's role in being central to air travel from North to South America.

情况就是这样。

That's how it looks.

我本来觉得，唯一有可能竞争的可能是波多黎各，它用的是美国法律体系和美元，但又不用支付美国的工资。

I mean, the one country I thought might have a shot is actually Puerto Rico, which uses The US legal system and the US dollar, but you don't have to pay US wages.

所以，它的特点跟巴拿马非常相似。

So, you know, a very similar profile to Panama.

虽然去那里比去巴拿马要绕远一点，而且据我所知，美国航空以前试过在圣胡安设枢纽，结果几年后就关闭了。

Although it's a bit of a detour to, you know, get there compared to Panama, and apparently, American Airlines tried running a San Juan hub before and ended up shutting it down after a couple of years.

所以我觉得最大的竞争威胁其实是超低成本航空公司，它们有了航程更远的飞机，直接飞最重要的点对点航线，完全绕开枢纽。

So probably, I think the biggest competitive risk is just ultra low cost carriers, getting longer range airplanes, and then start flying the most important routes point to point, basically skipping the hub entirely.

所以，是的，我觉得这确实是一个值得考虑的风险。

So, yeah, I think that's kind of a risk that I could think about.

但这样一来，又会遇到我之前说的那个问题：你得飞更长的航线，可又没法载满所有人，不然燃油根本撑不到终点。

But then you're again running into the problem that I described before where you gotta fly these longer routes, and then you basically have to leave people on the ground, because otherwise, your fuel is not enough to take the entire route.

所以从本质上讲，这种方式远没有巴拿马航空的模式高效。

So this is just, by nature, way less efficient than what Copa is doing.

这不只是竞争对手能比巴拿马航空做得更好那么简单。

So it's not only about a competitor doing what Copa does better.

而是整个枢纽辐射模式本身，正在变得越来越不重要。

It's more about the whole hub and spoke model becoming less relevant.

再说一遍，我觉得短期内还不太可能，但未来确实存在这种潜在风险。

Again, I don't think it's, you know, realistic anytime soon, but that's somewhat of a risk that I could see potentially in the future.

这让我想起你之前给我看的瑞安航空CEO迈克尔·奥利里的一段采访。

And so it actually reminds me of something Ryanair CEO, Michael O'Leary, said in an interview that you shared with me earlier.

他 basically 说，没人能在价格上打败他，毕竟他做的就是最便宜的机票。

He basically said he will never be beaten at his own game, which is, you know, delivering the cheapest flights.

但他有一天会被一家发明出瞬间传送人的公司颠覆。

But one day he will be disrupted by a company that invents beaming people from one place to another.

当然，这明显是开玩笑——不经巴拿马中转的远程直飞，跟传送可没关系。

So, you know, obviously being facetious, you know, long haul flights without a stop in Panama, is not really beaming.

但你的意思我懂。

But, you know, you get the point.

Copa 很难在自己擅长的领域被打败，但谁说这个游戏不能被重新定义呢？

Copa is unlikely to be beaten at its own game, but who says the game can't be reinvented?

我觉得这个角度特别好。

I think that's a great way to look at it.

无论是迈克尔还是拉里的采访，看起来都特别有意思。

And Michael or Larry interviews, they're just always fun to watch.

所以我才把那段采访发给你，就是这个原因。

That's why, you know, I sent that interview to you.

我们这档节目经常聊一些无聊的CEO，但他绝对不是那种人。

And we often talk about boring CEOs on this show, but he's definitely not one of them.

同时，他也不会让我觉得像有些过于外向、自信过头的CEO那样，有种不靠谱的感觉。

And, you know, at the same time, he also doesn't give me this sketchy feeling that I often get when CEOs are a bit more outgoing, maybe a bit too confident.

但话说回来，科帕航空的收益——也就是每名付费乘客每飞行一英里所产生的平均收入——过去几年一直在下滑，这至少说明竞争压力已经开始显现了。

But, yeah, I mean, the fact that Copa's yield, which is basically the average revenue an airline generates per paying passenger, per mile flown, has been dropping over the last couple of years, does suggest that there's at least some more competitive pressure starting to show up.

那现在或许正是深入看看风险的好时机。

Perhaps it's a good time then to zoom in more on the risks.

对，我们该这么做。

Yep, we should do it.

我们之前已经聊过整个行业了，所以我觉得光是讲科帕身处这样一个我们足足吐槽了半小时的行业，就已经把大部分风险说清楚了。

And we already talked about the industry, so I felt like a lot of the risks were covered by just Copa operating in an industry that we kind of ranted on for thirty minutes.

但我认为，最突出的风险，远超其他的，就是燃油。

But I would say the biggest one, by a long way, is fuel.

我们以前聊过，燃油是航空公司根本没法掌控的一大笔开销。

We talked about this before, but the fuel is a huge cost that airlines basically can't control.

对 Copa 来说，航油成本大概占了收入的四分之一。

So for Copa, jet fuel is, again, around a quarter of revenue.

有意思的是，Copa 目前根本不做燃油对冲，而很多其他航空公司都在做，现在他们也是其中之一。

And the interesting thing is that Copa actually doesn't hedge its fuel, which is something that many other airlines do, right now again being one of them.

你能不能给听众简单解释一下，什么叫对冲燃油，以及为什么 Copa 不这么做？

Maybe you can just quickly explain for the audience what hedging fuel actually means and then why Copa doesn't do it.

对冲就是买一些金融合约，提前锁定或者封顶你未来买燃油的价格。

Hedging basically means buying financial contracts that lock in or cap what you will pay for fuel in the future.

说白了，就是买一份保险，防着燃油价格暴涨。

So you're essentially buying an insurance against the fuel price going up.

Copa 的做法是，按政策直接按市场实时价买油，不管价格是多少。

And Copa has chosen, as a matter of policy, to just pay the spot market price for fuel, whatever that happens to be.

虽然从纸面上看，对冲好像稳赚不赔，但实际上可能代价很高——你想啊，要是油价大跌，可你签的合约还得按以前的高价买，那不就亏大了？

And while hedging somewhat sounds like a no brainer on paper, it can actually be quite costly because imagine, you know, fuel prices drop a lot, but you've got a contract that forces you to keep buying it at the old higher price.

你第一反应可能是，你选的那个价格应该还能保持不错的利润，所以总能撑得住。

Your first instinct might be, well, you know, you probably have chosen a price where you still earn a pretty good margin, so you should survive that.

但问题是，其他航空公司现在能以更低的价格买到燃油，就能在机票价格上压过你。

But the problem is, because all the other airlines can now buy fuel cheaper, they can just undercut you on ticket pricing.

所以对冲其实也有成本，很多航空公司过去因为对冲燃油价格，亏了大笔钱。

So hedging has also some form of cost, you know, that comes from it, and many airlines have lost a lot of money over the years by hedging their exposure to fuel price.

所以关于这个问题，没有绝对的对错之分。

So again, there is no right or wrong answer about this.

这正是航空业里特别棘手的一件事。

It's one of those tricky things about the airline business.

为了更清楚一点，Copa每年大约要消耗三亿八千万加仑的航油。

And just to put some math behind it, Copa burns something like 380,000,000 gallons of jet fuel a year.

如果航油价格每加仑涨跌一美元，就直接让公司的运营利润增减三亿八千万美元，而Copa的全年运营利润也就八亿多美元，也就是说，油价波动一美元，就能让公司一半的运营收入上下浮动。

So if the jet fuel price moves by just $1 a gallon that's roughly $380,000,000 straight through operating profit up or down and Copa's total operating profit is in the range of 800 something million So a $1 move in the fuel price swings something like half of this company's entire operating income.

再强调一下，对冲的潜在风险是，比如疫情爆发的时候，你想想看？

Well, just to emphasize again, potential downsides of hedging is that, you know, imagine COVID, right?

他们可能在2019年心想，要是能锁定油价，让2020年的成本平均保持在每桶60美元，那可太好了。

They're probably in 2019 thinking, oh man, if we can hedge oil prices so that we're paying, you know, an average of $60 per barrel in 2020, that's great.

这样我们的利润就有了保障。

We've secured profitable economics for us.

结果呢？

And then, well, guess what?

2020年，原油期货价格居然跌到了负数。

Futures prices for oil went negative in 2020.

你本来以为自己锁定了一个超划算的价格，没想到油价突然大幅下跌。

And so you're sitting there thinking that you get this great rate that you're locked into, and then all of a sudden prices could drop dramatically.

这就像签了房贷，但你没有再融资的选项。

It's kind of like getting a mortgage except you don't necessarily have the option to refinance.

你固定了一个利率，可一旦利率下降，你就只能干着急，没办法调整。

You know, you're locking into a commitment on a rate, and then if rates fall, you're kind of like, oh, well, I'm stuck.

对于不了解航油价格的人来说，我知道航油价格跟油价挂钩，但我不清楚它是不是更波动，或者具体跟油价的关联程度有多高。

And so for somebody who has no familiarity with jet fuel prices, which I know are derivative of the cost of oil, but I don't know if they're more volatile and, you know, exactly what the correlation is.