TIP825：Meta、Adobe、Booking Holdings，嘉宾为 Stig Brodersen、Tobias Carlisle 和 Hari Ramachandra

总之，我刚才说的这些想法，可能说得太多了，有点偏离我想表达的意思。

So anyways, just a few thoughts that came off way too much barriers than I wanted it to sound like.

托比亚斯，我觉得以现金流折现来看，他们离高点大概低了30%。

Tobias I think they're off about 30% from their high on a DCF basis.

我觉得估值能到220美元左右，现在股价大概在167美元。

I think you can get to about $220 I think it's worth about It's trading at about 167 today.

所以问题是，这个折扣够不够覆盖这些风险？而且2.20美元的预测是基于过去的历史增长率。

So the question is, is that enough of a discount for those risks and that $2.20 is based on sort of historical growth rates?

过去十二个月，股价下跌期间，他们回购了相当多的股票。

They've bought back a significant amount of stock over the last twelve months as they've traded down.

我觉得这可能是我们观察LLM如何影响其他企业的关键指标之一。

I think it might be one of the bellwether sort of stocks that we watch and tells us how the LLMs are impacting other businesses.

对我们来说，现在的市场确实挺有意思的。

It's an interesting time in the markets for us.

斯蒂格，确实如此。

Stig It definitely is.

好吧。

All right.

非常感谢你，托比。

So thank you so much, Toby.

现在轮到你来挑我选的毛病了。

Now it's time for you to bash my pick.

我选的是Adobe。

My pick is Adobe.

如果有人不太了解Adobe，它是一家软件公司。

If anyone is unfamiliar with Adobe, it's a software company.

大家最熟悉的是Photoshop，但他们现在还有一大堆设计师和创意人士常用的软件工具。

They're known for Photoshop in particular, but now they have a ton of different apps you would typically use if you're a designer, creative person.

他们还有一个叫数字体验的产品，主要做数据分析，不过我选的还是Adobe。

They also have something called Digital Experience that's more about analytics, but my pick is Adobe.

我想说的大概就是这些。

Guess that's what I'm trying to say.

市值大约一千亿美元，而且多年来一直保持两位数增长。

Market cap, roughly $100,000,000,000 and it has been growing double digits for the longest time.

不仅处于52周低点附近，甚至接近七年来的最低水平。

And it's not only trading at a fifty two week low or near that, but near a seven year low.

我应该提一下，不久前它的股价还是2.24美元。

Of course, I should have said that it traded at $2.24 not too long ago.

现在录音时是2.70美元，稍微回升了一点。

The time of recording, it's $2.70, so it had a small bump.

但和现在的所有软件或SaaS公司一样，市场对它根本不待见。

But the market, like all software or SaaS companies these days, is just unloved.

因为乍一看，它其实有很多吸引人的地方。

Because at first glance, there is a lot to love.

230亿美元的收入中，有96%来自订阅收入。

96% of the $23,000,000,000 in revenue comes from subscription revenue.

这正是你希望看到的——超过四千一百万付费用户组成的多元化基础。

That is exactly what you want to see, diversified base of more than 41,000,000 paying users.

要是几年前、在大模型兴起之前我来推荐这家公司，我们肯定早就重仓了。

If I had pitched this just a few years ago before the era of the LLMs, we'd be all over it.

其实从市场趋势也能看出来，那时候人人都想把自己的软件业务转型成订阅制的SaaS模式。

Of course, you could also see that in evaluation because everyone was at some point in time trying to make their software business into software as a service with a subscription.

Adobe 就是其中做得特别成功的公司之一。

Adobe has really been one of the companies that men's do that successfully.

以前根本不会用云服务，你得买张光盘，回家安装才行。

Back in the day, you would not use it in the cloud, you would get a CD and then you would install it.

现在年轻一点的听众可能要问了：老哥，你刚说的‘光盘’是啥玩意儿？

Then some of the younger listeners are probably saying, Hey, dude, grandpa, what's a CD?

我得说，那玩意儿其实就是软盘的升级版。

To which I'm going to say, It's a more modern version of a floppy disk.

当然，这么说等于在承认我年纪不小了，但我也想强调，Adobe 1986年就上市了，从那以后基本就成了行业标准。

Of course, that's my way of saying that I'm super old, but it's also my way of saying that Adobe IPO ed in 1986, and it's really been the industry standard more or less ever since.

现在很多人用PDF的时候，根本不会想到它背后还有Adobe这家公司。

Many people don't think about a PDF whenever they use that today.

这是Adobe拥有的一项标准。

That's a standard owned by Adobe.

举个例子，每次我叫车或者去拜访托比的时候，我都会说我在用Uber，‘Uber’已经变成动词了。

There is something to be said about whenever you For example, whenever I'm calling a car or I would visit Toby, I would be Ubering, that's a verb.

如果我要修图，我不是在修图，我是在用Photoshop处理。

Stig If I'm going to edit a photo, I am not editing a photo, I am photoshopping.

Adobe很早就注意到了这一点。

Adobe saw that a long time ago.

其实，Photoshop并不是他们自己开发的。

Actually, they didn't come up with Photoshop themselves.

他们是从诺尔兄弟手里买下了推广权。

They acquired the rights to market it from the Knoll brothers.

虽然这事过去很久了，但如今大家一提到Photoshop，就直接联想到Adobe，它是在1990年推出的。

But it's a long time ago and today everyone associate very much Photoshop with Adobe, launched 1990.

咱们再继续回味一下过去吧。

Let's just continue to take a trip down memory lane.

这比网景公司出现还早了四年，对那些还记得这家公司的听众来说。

It was four years before Netscape, for any of our listeners who remember that company.

好的，那我们来聊聊竞争优势吧。

Stig All right, so let's talk a bit about the competitive advantage.

我认为最重要的一个因素是转换成本。

The most important mode I would say is switching costs.

我之前提到过，你可以把Adobe看作由两个业务板块组成。

What I was hitting at before, you can think of Adobe as having two segments.

一个是数字媒体，占他们业务的76%，也就是创意云和文档云所在的地方；另一个是数字体验。

Have digital media, which is 76% of their business, and that's where you have the creative cloud, you have the document cloud where that resides, and then you have digital experiences.

这是企业软件业务，帮助公司管理营销、客户数据、电子商务、数字内容等等。

That's the enterprise software business that help companies manage marketing, customer data, thirty:fifty e commerce, digital content, and so on.

我们每个人都是习惯的动物。

We're all creatures of habits.

听起来可能有点平淡，但惰性在商业模型里其实非常有利。

As uninspiring as it sounds, inertia is very good whenever you think about it in terms of a business model.

你还要考虑到，人们是受利益驱动的。

You also have to consider that people follow incentives.

当然，现在这个时代有了人工智能，看起来应该是顺风顺水。

Of course, in this day and age with AI, seems like it should be a tailwind.

股东和管理层都希望员工，不管在哪类公司，都能接受人工智能，比如提高效率或者降低成本。

Shareholders, management, they want the employees of whatever kind of company to embrace AI, for example, to become more productive or to save on costs.

你猜怎么着？

Guess what?

但大多数员工并没有同样的动力。

Most employees do not have the same incentive.

他们觉得，哪怕效率提升了，也未必会体现在自己的工资上。

They think, and perhaps rightly so, that any efficiency gains doesn't really benefit their paycheck.

最坏的情况是，自己或同事的工作可能会丢掉。

Worst case, they can lose their own or their coworkers' jobs.

所以管理层和股东对用人工智能来降低成本——而这往往意味着削减薪资——要兴奋得多。

So management and shareholders are just way more excited thirty:fifty about embracing AI to cut costs, which very often means salaries.

我还要说，这听起来在纸上挺完美的，对吧？

I would also say that it sounds good on paper, right?

但咱们换个角度想想，就算不谈经济激励和失业风险这些，用Adobe这类工具本身也带着一种专业上的自豪感。

But let's look at it from the other side, even if we are looking away from the financial incentives and job risk and so on and so forth, there is a professional pride in knowing how to use Adobe.

如果你是个设计师，从小就被教着用这些工具，用了几十年，现在要你接受一个新科技——在这个新体系里，不管你是资深还是新人，大家基本站在同一起跑线上，尤其是那些薪资只有你三分之一的新人，这真的很难接受。

If you're a designer and you're taught with those tools, you've used it for decades, it's really difficult to embrace a new technology where there is a level playing field for, I wouldn't say everyone, but more or less everyone, and certainly someone who is entry level who might be making a third of what you're making.

你根本没什么动力去玩这个游戏。

You don't really have that incentive to start playing that game.

我待会儿还会再多聊聊激励的问题，但我想任何开过公司的人都会说，每当你推出一项新举措，大家都会下意识地问：这对我有什么好处？

I'm going to talk a bit more about incentives here, but I think anyone who's been running a business would tell you that whenever you roll out a new initiative, everyone would consciously or subconsciously be thinking, What's in it for me?

我每次做投资的时候，常会想一个问题：这个安排符合人性吗？

One of the things I often think about whenever I would make an investment is, how does this align with human nature?

现在这个时代，颠覆无处不在，但要真正颠覆人性，实在太难了。

In this day and age, we see disruption from everywhere, but it's very thirty:fifty difficult to disrupt human nature.

所以我特别想强调一点：对99%的人来说，花别人的钱，远比花自己的钱要轻松得多。

So one of the things that I wanted to highlight is that for 99% of people, they have an easier time spending other people's money than their own.

我这么说听起来好像有点阴阳怪气，但我认为很多人对AI带来的变化速度其实有点过度担忧了。

It sounds so passive aggressive whenever I'm saying this, but I think a lot of the AI fears are probably overblown in the sense of how rapid things are going to change.

我完全不否认AI会改变很多东西，但有时候我们低估了这些改变需要多大的蛮力，也低估了在组织里强行推动改变有多难。

And I'm not questioning at all that AI is going to change a bunch of different things, but I think we sometimes underestimate how much of these changes that need to be almost brute force and how difficult it is to brute force something in an organization.

当你的生计依赖于不去理解某件事时，要让别人真正明白它，真的非常困难。

It is very difficult to get people to understand something whenever your livelihood is depending on not understanding it.

当然，这种抗拒也是有极限的。

Course, even that there's a limit to.

如果你不懂汽车，还死守着快马，迟早也得面对现实。

If you don't understand the car and you swore by faster horses, you would eventually have to wake up to the reality.

我不是说，只要AI没比现有工具强十倍，哪怕转换成本再高，我们就永远不会放弃像Adobe这样的产品。

So I'm not saying that if AI isn't 10 times better and despite the switching costs, then we would eventually have to use something else than say Adobe's products.

当然，如果你去问CEO，他肯定连连摆手说：不会不会，绝对不可能。

Of course, whenever you ask the CEO about that, he's saying, Oh, no, no, no, no.

AI根本动摇不了我们。

AI is not going to disrupt us.

这会成为一股助力。

It's going to be a tailwind.

因为有了它，我们的表现会好很多，所以我觉得这个信号其实很弱。

We're going to be so much better because of So I think that's pretty weak signal.

任何一个称职的CEO今天都会这么说。

Any CEO that's worth his salt would probably say that today.

但我也得承认，像《投资者播客网络》这样的公司，我们对Adobe的依赖非常深。

But I would also be the first to say that a company like The Investor's Podcast Network, we are so dependent on Adobe.

我们团队有二十个人，其中十五个都在用Adobe的产品。

Have 20 people on the team, 15 of them are using Adobe.

有些人只用其中一个应用，但大多数人用的是整个套件。

Some of them are just using one app, but most are using the entire suite.

整体费用还不到我们总成本的百分之一。

The overall cost is significantly less than 1% of our total cost.

所以，虽然听起来挺吸引人——用个更便宜的替代品，但这其实是个不同层面的问题，就算它真能便宜不少。

So as much as it sounds great, let's use something that's cheaper, and it's sort of like a different discussion if it's better, but let's say that this is going to be a lot cheaper.

就连我作为公司所有者之一，虽然很想节省开支，但这根本算不上什么成本节约。

Even me as one of the owners of the company, as much as I would like to save on costs, it's just not really a cost saver.

经营公司的时候，当然每个公司情况不同，但赚得最多的往往不是最优秀的人。

Whenever you run a company, and of course it depends on the company, but it's not always the greatest people that are paid the most.

他们通常是大组织里某个团队的一部分。

They are typically one team inside a larger organization.

TIP 也是同样的情况。

It's the same with TIP.

然后是员工的工资，这才是最大的开销。

Then you have the salaries to the people, that's the biggest cost.

第二大开销通常是设备。

Then the second biggest cost is typically equipment.

软件的费用只占很小一部分。

Then a very small part of the cost is the software.

所以你面对的其实是个很小的数字。

So you're looking at something that's very small.

每当你这么做时，我觉得Adobe在性价比上简直太划算了。

Whenever you're doing that, I would say that Adobe is an incredible cheap product for the value that it provides.

我觉得很重要的是，当你听到别人抱怨Adobe太贵时，得明白，那些人往往不是真正的用户。比如一个每月赚800美元的自由职业者，确实觉得贵。

I think it's very important that you also Whenever you hear people talking about the cost of Adobe, you would have a lot of people who are saying, It's ridiculously expensive.

对一个每月赚800美元的自由职业者来说，花70美元买Adobe套件确实不便宜，但对一家年收入几百万的公司来说，这根本不算什么。

The freelancer who has a side hustle that makes $800 a month, no.

我不是说那些大厂，但如果你公司年营业额五百万美元，每月只花三千美元在Adobe上，这根本不是该省钱的地方——尤其是当整个团队都熟练使用这套软件的时候。

For them to buy the Adobe Suite that's $70 a month, it's a significant cost, but for a multimillion dollar company, and I'm not necessarily talking about the co coders of the world, but if your turnover is like $5,000,000 and you're spending, I don't know, dollars 3,000 on Adobe Suite, that's not where you want to skimp on your cost, especially not if your entire team are trained on using the software.

所以，Stig，我觉得换平台的代价远比表面看起来高得多。我忍不住私下问了我们团队的人，想了解下真实想法。

So Stig I would say that the switching cost is a lot higher than probably what it seems, and I also couldn't help myself but to do a bit of scuttlebutt research and speak to our team members about it.

当然，你可能会说，他们当然有理由告诉我绝对不会换Adobe。

You could of course also say they were having all the incentive in the world to tell me that they would never go off Adobe.

但我问我们YouTube团队的副总裁时，她一听到‘如果你不用Adobe，你会用什么？’就直接愣住了。

But I was speaking with our VP from our YouTube team and she completely paused whenever I asked her, What kind of tool would you use if you didn't use Adobe?

她真的想不出有什么别的工具能替代Adobe。

She had a really, really hard time coming up with using something that she could use.

当然，也有不少替代品可用。

Of course, can then use There are a lot of alternatives.

我不是说没有替代品，只是现在它们的功能还达不到 Adobe 的水平。

I'm not saying that there aren't alternatives, but right now they just don't have the same functionality.

好了，我刚才扯得有点远了。

So anyways, I've been rambling here for quite a bit.

接下来想聊聊一些潜在的风险。

Wanted to talk a bit more about some of the risks.

本来想谈谈估值，但先把这个话题放一放。

I wanted to talk about the valuation, but I want to throw it back over here first.

Tobias，Adobe 很有意思，它和 Booking 类似，真正的风险在于人工智能。

Tobias Adobe is interesting because it's similar to Booking in the sense that, again, it's AI that is the risk to it.

也许用起来永远都不会太顺手。

Maybe it never gets easy to wear it.

但 Adobe 的优势恰恰在于，你可以把创意构思和简单操作交给 ChatGPT 或其他大模型来处理。

Maybe that's where Adobe really shines that you can do all of the idea creation and really simple stuff in ChatGPT or whatever LLMs.

但我认为这个估值非常有吸引力，斯蒂格·布罗德森。

But I think the valuation is very compelling, Stig Brodersen.

同样，这只股票现在有明显的折价。

It's again, there is a big discount in the stock.

他们正在大量回购股票。

They're doing a lot of buybacks.

如果这只是暂时的，或者他们能适应并从中受益，那现在入手的价格就相当划算。

If it is sort of temporary or they can adapt or be beneficiaries, then you're getting a good price, you're getting a good handicap price to take it on here.

我觉得Adobe非常值得关注。

Think Adobe is very interesting.

我们先插个短广告，听听今天的赞助商。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

对线上交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步吗？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

Plus500的期货交易是个不错的入门选择。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场变化很快，有了Plus500，你可以轻松交易原油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有不少机会在发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

平台操作非常简单，随时随地用手机就能交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

只需100美元就能开始，立刻参与市场动态。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的机会了吗？

See something interesting?

开户后，几下点击就能下单交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

零风险，无压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500 让交易变得前所未有的简单。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

立即访问 plus500.com 了解更多。

Check it out at plus500.com.

交易和期货存在亏损风险，并非适合所有投资者。

Trading and futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

并非所有申请人都能通过审核。

Not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，让交易更胜一筹。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

我每天都在研究全球顶尖企业的财务数据，很快就能看出一个明显的规律。

Spending my days digging through the financials of the world's best businesses and one thing becomes obvious fast.

真正成功的公司，都是那些能清晰掌握自身运营状况的企业。

The companies that win are the ones that can actually see what's happening inside their own operation.

现在大家都说，你每天推迟接入AI，就会落后两天。

And these days, they say that every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.

竞争越来越快，但幸运的是，接下来就是NetSuite。

The competition is only moving faster, but fortunately, there's Netsuite next.

你可能已经听说过NetSuite，这个由AI驱动的商业管理平台，能安全地整合你所有的数据。

You probably already know Netsuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all your data.

它是一个统一的系统，把财务、库存、电商、人力和客户关系全都整合成一个可信的数据源，已有四万三千多家企业信赖它。

It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.

NetSuite Next，是商业运作方式的又一次巨大飞跃。

Netsuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done.

因为现在，AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。

Because now AI is built into everything you do.

它针对多个行业做了定制，完全贴合你企业的实际运营方式。

It's customized for a wide range of industries, so it supports the way your business actually works.

无论你的公司年收入是几百万还是几亿，现在都该升级到NetSuite Next了，让你的业务真正与AI结合。

Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, it's time for Netsuite next, where your business meets AI.

你看，如果我正在经营一家快速发展的公司，需要把财务和运营整合到一个平台上，我一定会选NetSuite。

And look, if I were running a growing company and needed to get my financials and operations onto one platform, Netsuite is exactly what I'd use.

有史以来第一次，

For the first time ever,

你可以免费试用NetSuite Next。

you can try Netsuite Next for free.

如果你的年收入达到了七位数以上，

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures,

访问 netsuite.ai/tip 了解更多。

go to netsuite.ai/tip.

适用于各个行业，随时准备迎接董事会的挑战。

Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom.

就是 netsuite.ai/tip。

That's netsuite.ai/tip.

在我加入这个投资者播客之前，我脑子里全是各种可能的顾虑。

Before I joined the investors podcast, every what if you can imagine was running through my head.

如果我并不适合这个受众怎么办？

What if I'm not the right fit for this audience?

如果我在镜头前紧张得说不出话怎么办？

What if I freeze up on camera?

如果我跟不上

What if I can't keep up with

这里人们期待的分析深度怎么办？

the level of analysis people here expect?

但不管怎样，我选择相信自己，这成了我做过最明智的决定之一。

Well, betting on myself anyways turned out to be one of the best decisions I've ever made.

说实话，要是当初有人像Shopify支持商家那样站在我这边，那段起步的日子肯定会轻松很多。

And I'll tell you, those early days would have been a lot less stressful with a partner in my corner the way Shopify is for the businesses that work with them.

Shopify是全球数百万企业的电商平台，也是美国10%电商交易背后的技术支持。

Shopify is the e commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all e commerce in The US.

从Allbirds、Gymshark这样的知名品牌，到刚刚起步的小公司，都在用它。

From household names like Allbirds and Gymshark to brands just getting off the ground.

你可以从他们的设计工作室开始，里面有数百个现成的模板，帮你轻松打造一个与品牌风格一致的精美网店，完全不需要设计经验。

You get started with their design studio, hundreds of ready to use templates that help you build a beautiful online store that actually matches your brand with no design background required.

它还内置了大量AI工具，能帮你处理那些你根本没想到要做的琐事，比如写产品描述、拟定标题，甚至优化产品图片。

It's also packed with AI tools that handle the work you didn't realize you'd have to do, writing product descriptions, headlines, even enhancing your product photography.

那如果遇到困难怎么办？

And what if you get stuck?

别担心，24小时全天候的获奖客户支持团队随时为你答疑解惑。

Well, is around twenty four seven with award winning customer support to walk you through it.

是时候把那些顾虑变成现实了，现在就用Shopify吧。

It's time to turn those what ifs into with Shopify today.

前往 shopify.com/tip，注册每月仅需1美元的试用。

Sign up for your $1 per month trial at shopify.com/tip.

访问 shopify.com/tip。

Go to shopify.com/tip.

就是 shopify.com/tip。

That's shopify.com/tip.

好了，我们继续回到节目。

All right, back to the show.

好的，托比亚斯，非常感谢你的反馈。

Tobias Yeah, Toby, thank you so much for your feedback.

当然了，我说这话难免有偏见，但我觉得，就你提到的Canva来说，它最直接的竞争对手，真正最容易被颠覆的其实是低端市场。

Of course, I'm biased as I'm saying this, but I'll probably make the argument that to your point about Canva, which is the most obvious competitor, I think the lower end of the market is the one that's most ripe for disruption.

我刚才跟团队里的人聊过这个事。

I was speaking with a team member about this.

我第一个就说，AI才是颠覆的关键。

I was the first to say, Well, disruption from AI.

她说，真正让Adobe脱颖而出的，其实是创作的掌控感。

She said that it's really the creative control that's where Adobe shines.

她说的跟你一样，AI确实能生成内容，但作为创作者，你总得不断调整细节。

She was saying the same thing as you, like, It can generate things, but as a creative person, you need to tweak things all the time.

而这一点，至少目前用AI来做，还是挺难的。

And that's very difficult to do at least right now with AI.

所以我就问了她，她说她一直在用Adobe套件里的AI功能，能帮她完成一部分工作。

Stig So I asked her and she was saying, Oh, she's using AI within the Adobe Suite all the time, and it can do a part of the process.

但还不能全靠它，或者说，其实能，只是他们不想让你知道。

It can't do all of it, or perhaps it can, they just don't want you to know.

就像你说的，AI特别擅长处理这种背景清理的工作。

So as you're saying, one of the great things is that AI is very good at figuring out how to clean up this background.

你点一下按钮，它就能自动搞定，你只需要给点提示，效果非常好。

You can press a button and then it works, you're prompting it, but it works really well with that.

但还有很多其他环节，它目前还做不到。

But there are so many of the other components where it doesn't do that.

总之，我觉得这个观点很有说服力。

So anyways, I found that to be quite compelling.

尤其是当你看股票走势图的时候，就像你提到的，看到股价跌得这么厉害，确实挺吸引人的。

Think especially whenever you look at a stock chart and sort of like to your point, you see how much it's been selling off and it looks really appealing.

他们一直在大量回购股票。

They're buying back a lot of shares.

我觉得他们发行的股票也太多了，不过我每次推荐股票时都会这么说。

I also think they're issuing too many shares, but I always say that whenever I pitch a stock.

这在某种程度上已经成了新的常态。

That is to some extent the new standard.

我觉得要评估它的估值真的挺难的。

I think that it's very tricky to think about the valuation.

我对自己的分析很有信心，觉得3.5美元、400这样的价位完全可以入手。

Feel pretty confident that I can underwrite something like $3.50, 400.

所以我研究Adobe的时候就在想，也许200美元左右才是入手的好时机。

So whenever I looking into Adobe here and I was thinking, Well, perhaps the right time to buy this would be around 200.

就在不久前它还只卖2.24美元，可最近几天突然就大幅上涨了。

Again, trading at $2.24 just a blink of an eye ago and here the past few days, it just took a big bump.

不过话说回来，我现在觉得有个挺明显的挑战，其实不止一个，我该说有好几个。

But anyways, I think one of the challenges that I now see is, well, there are quite a few, I should probably say.

其中一个就是获客的前端环节。

One of them is the top of the funnel.

这正好印证了你之前说的，Toby，关于Canva的事。

It goes to what you were saying before, Toby, about Canva.

Canva已经存在很久了，这点你要清楚，但很多人，不管是不是搞创意的，很早就进入了Adobe的生态，尤其是搞创意的人，一旦走上这条路，就能以非常低的价格拿到这些工具。

Know Canva has been there for quite some time, so take for what it is, but a lot of people get into the Adobe ecosystem very early, whether you are a creative person or not, but especially if you're a creative person and then you continue on that path, you can get it very, very cheaply.

当然，你可以说学生订阅完全是增量价值，这也是SaaS商业模式的厉害之处，但同时也是把用户拉进生态的手段。

And of course you can say that a subscription for a student it's all incremental value, it's part of the power of the SaaS business model, but it's also a way for you to get into the ecosystem.

不管你是自己掏钱还是公司买单，你在企业里干活时，会用什么工具？

Whenever you do work in a corporation, whether you're paying for it yourself or the company is, what do you want to use?

当然是Adobe。

Well, you're going to use Adobe.

但我能理解，为什么有些人从一开始就拒绝踏入Adobe的生态。

But I can see why there might be an issue with the top of the funnel where a lot of people are going to say, No, no, no, I'm not going to go into Adobe in the first place.

他们自己也有入门级产品，Adobe Express，但有了这些AI工具，不少人可能根本不会走到真正为Adobe付费的那一步。

They have their own top of the funnel product, Adobe Express, but with the LMs, some people might never make it to the bottom of a funnel where they really make their money.

所以我忍不住要拿这个跟伯克希尔·哈撒韦的年度股东大会做个对比，你可能会说，哎，这从Adobe跳到那儿，跨度是不是有点大？

So I can't help but make the comparison to the Berkshire Holloway Annual Shareholders Meeting, and you might say, Wow, that's a big of a jump here from Adobe.

但我最近一直在想，巴菲特不在了之后，价值投资圈会变成什么样。

But one of the things I've been thinking about now has been what's going to happen with the value investing community without Buffett.

前几天我跟我们共同的朋友克里斯·普鲁森聊了聊这事。

I was speaking with a mutual friend of ours, Chris Prusen here the other day about it.

他第一句话就说，因为我表达得太不清楚了：‘我会继续去的。’

First thing he said, because I articulated myself extremely poorly was, Hey, I'll continue to go.

当然，我肯定会继续去。

Of course, I'm going to continue.

我所有的朋友都在那儿。

All my friends are there.

那是奥马哈，你非去不可。

It's Omaha, you have to go.

这话说得很有道理。

And that makes a lot of sense.

同样地，如果你是个创意工作者，在好莱坞的电影公司上班，那东西就得做得特别特别好。

In a similar way, if you are a creative person, you work at a Hollywood studio, it has to look really, really good.

是的，你通过Adobe使用的是企业版授权。

Yes, you are on the enterprise license through Adobe.

这个情况不会变，过去三十年你一直这样，未来二十年也会继续这样。

You're not going to change that and you've done that the past thirty years and you're going to do that in the next twenty years.

当然你会继续，但那顶部的用户群体呢？

Of course you're going to do that, but what about the top of the funnel?

那个26岁的NBA球员，谁也不认识，就是想去奥马哈看看免费活动。

What about the 26 year old NBA who doesn't know anyone, but he just wants to go to Omaha and check out the free events.

他们真正想看的，其实就是巴菲特本人。

And the reason what they really draw is that you just want to see Buffett.

这才是核心吸引力所在。

That's a big part of the value prop.

现在巴菲特已经不在了。

Now Buffett is no longer there.

那里全是些老圈子，大家互相认识，一去就是三十年，他凭什么要去？

They're just all of these private clubs there where people know each other and they've been going for thirty years and why would he go?

我并不是说这个比喻最完美，但凡我跟用了好几年Adobe的人聊，他们都觉得这是行业标杆。

I'm not saying it's the most perfect comparison, but whenever I speak to people who have been using Adobe for a number of years, it's the gold standard.

他们从小就被这么教育，大家也都用这个。

That's what they've been taught and that's what everyone used.

只要你懂自己的行当，就一定熟悉Adobe这套工具。

If you know your craft, you know the Adobe suite.

所以这些工具用起来特别顺理成章。

So the tools makes a lot of sense.

而且它们是打包在一起的，对吧？

Also, they're bundled, right?

你可能在用这个软件，但突然发现还需要别的功能。

So you might be using this app, but then you need something else.

你压根没想到自己需要这个，结果一瞧，Adobe居然也有。

You didn't know that you need it, but, oh, Adobe has that.

当然了，所有软件都能无缝协作，就跟Microsoft Office一样。

Of course, everything works together seamlessly just like Microsoft Office.

但如果你根本就没去那儿呢？

But what if you don't go there in the first place?

我想这才是我最担心的问题。

I guess that's my biggest concern.

你可能会说，嗯，这些在数据里体现不出来。

You might say, Well, that doesn't show up in the numbers.

这真的有关系吗？

Does it really matter?

但这对最终估值很重要。

Well, it matters for the terminal value.

你现在的估值倍数到底是多少？

What kind of multiple are you actually at?

我觉得在大语言模型出现之前，你完全可以给更高的估值倍数。

I think before the time of the LLMs, you could underwrite a much, much higher multiple.

就像我之前提到的Adobe，96%的收入来自订阅，而且用户黏性特别高。

Like I was mentioning before with Adobe, 96% is subscription revenue and it's such a sticky product.

那为什么不能给一个特别高的倍数呢？

Why wouldn't you assign a really, really high multiple?

这还假设你依然拥有漏斗顶端的流量。

That's also assuming you still have top of the funnel.

要是你不再拥有这部分了怎么办？

What if you don't have that anymore?

所以每当我提到，它可能值四亿美元，也许更多，但也可能没那么多。

So whenever I say, Oh, it's probably worth $400, perhaps more, but perhaps not.

所以在估值这个问题上，我确实有点拿不准。

So I have a bit of a hard time with the valuation.

不管怎样，我把话题交还给

Anyways, I want to throw it back over to

大家，听听各位有什么看法。

you to the group and open up for any thoughts.

托比亚斯，这其实是个根本没法确定的问题。

Tobias Really, it's an unknowable problem.

这其实是我们都面临的同一个问题。

It's the same problem that we all really have.

有意思的是，AI这个话题突然变得这么紧迫，竟然对这么多长期以来占据主导地位的企业造成了这么大影响。

It's funny that the AI question has become so urgent all of a sudden that it really has impacted so many of these very historically very dominant businesses.

就像你说的，'Photoshop'都成动词了，而且已经存在很久了。

As you say, Photoshop is the verb and it's been around for forever.

但内容生成——不是编辑，是内容生成——现在大语言模型做得越来越好了，已经开始显现影响了。

But the content generation and this is not the editing, the content generation is getting so good on the LLMs that it really is starting.

你能看到，未来这可能会对这些公司造成冲击。

You can see how it could impact these guys down the road.

但我还是觉得，他们终究会保留某个优势，当然，这里有个长长的'但是'——要实现精准的编辑，光靠大语言模型还不够，你很可能还得靠一套类似Adobe那样的工具组合。

But I still think they're always gonna have that I mean, I don't know, always I guess there's a long but that precision editing of those documents is in order to get that precision editing of the LLMs, you're probably going to need a suite of tools that look something like Adobe anyway.

这个问题真的很难给出明确答案。

It's a very difficult question to answer.

不过话说回来，我觉得现在的价格已经对它产生的现金流打了不小的折扣，而且这类变革真正产生影响所需的时间，比大家想的要长得多，我们可能是早期使用者，但整个行业大规模跟进，恐怕还得等很久。

But again, I think you're getting a pretty good discount for the cash flows that it does generate and it does take longer than everybody thinks for these things really impact, we may be early adopters and it may take a lot longer for the bulk of the industry to catch on.

在深度价值型投资中，市场常常认为企业的收入或利润会迅速下滑，这种情况其实很常见。

So they've got It's not uncommon in deep value type scenarios to have a very long tail where the market thinks that the revenue growth or the earnings fall off almost immediately.

但实际上，这些公司的业务非常稳固，衰退过程要持续好多年，是一种缓慢的下滑。

But in actuality, they're very sticky and it takes years and years and that's that slow decline.

即使在缓慢衰退中，它依然是一家很有价值的公司。

It's still a valuable company in slow decline.

如果它正处于现金牛业务的衰退阶段，那它现在做的这些事——比如回购股票——就是正确的。

And if it's in that cash cow decline stage of its life cycle, then they're doing the right things, they're buying back stock.

这是个很棒的投资标的，我其实关注很久了，但眼下确实是投资市场非常有意思的时候。

It's a great pick and it's one that I've been sort of watching for a long time but it is a very interesting time to be investing in the markets.

Stig，那确实是。

Stig That's

说得太对了，Toby。

so true, Toby.

我们以前聊过，人们总喜欢事后找理由，给发生的事编出一套解释。

We talked here before about resulting and coming up with explanations for why things happened.

这太多了

It's a lot

再增加三成到五成，就更难预测实际会发生什么了。

thirty:fifty more thirty:fifty difficult to predict what is actually going to happen.

所以每当我看到像Adobe这样的公司时，我觉得在某种程度上，也取决于你当时的心态。

So whenever I look at a company like Adobe, I think to some extent it also depends on a bit of the state of mind you're in.

有时候我觉得内容已经泛滥了。

Sometimes I'm thinking content is abundant.

网上内容多得不得了，简直泛滥成灾。

There's just so much content out there, so much slob.

在从实体向数字转型的世界里，Adobe的产品是必需的，只要这种转型还在继续，你就需要Adobe的工具来实现它。

Adobe is needed in a world that's still shifting from physical to digital, and whenever that shift is happening, you need one of Adobe's products to make that happen.

在内容为王的世界里，你必须用最高质量的东西才能脱颖而出。

Also in the world of a content, you need the highest quality to separate yourself.

问题不在于多生产内容——谁都能多产，关键是内容得真正、真正出色。

It's not a question of making more content, we can all make more content, but it has to be really, really good.

所以你可能会说服自己说，整个世界的创作平台可能会被颠覆，但高端市场——真正赚钱的地方——短期内不会被撼动，因为那里的东西必须刚刚好。

So then you can sort of talk yourself into saying, The canvas of the world are going to be disrupted, but the high end, really where the money is, they're not going to be disrupted anytime soon because it has to be thirty:thirty just right.

如果你看看Adobe的客户群体，虽然他们没有公开每个群体的具体数据，但你其实能猜得出来。

So it's interesting if you look at the customer groups that Adobe has, and they're not breaking out the market for each customer group, you can probably fill in the blanks.

他们有两万两千家大型企业客户，你可以把这些客户想象成政府机构、好莱坞制片公司、大学之类的机构。

Have the 22,000 large enterprise customers, and then they have You can think about them as government bodies, Hollywood studios, universities, whatnot.

然后他们还有四千一百万付费的Creative Cloud用户，比如个人创作者、自由职业者、学生和小企业主。

Then they have 41,000,000 paid Creative Cloud subscribers such as individuals, freelancers, students, small businesses.

此外，他们还有八亿五千万月活跃的免费用户。

And then they have eight fifty million monthly active free users.

这其中包括免费使用Acrobat Reader的用户。

That also includes free Acrobat Reader users.

这个用户漏斗非常宽，但这些人基本都不花钱。

It's a very wide funnel and they don't pay any money out of that.

你能清楚看到钱是从哪里来的。

You can see where they make the money.

如果五年、十年后我们还在讨论这个，说当年大家对人工智能有那么多抵触，是因为人们想要有人情味儿，我一点都不意外。

I wouldn't be surprised if we would be talking about this five, ten years from now and say, Oh, there was so much pushback against AI because people want the human element.

当然，也可能发生了别的事，或者情况正好相反。

And of course, XYZ happened, or it might be the other way around.

其实人们只是想要效率罢了。

Like, Oh, people just want efficiency.

我感受到的一个偏见是，专家和创意人士，恰恰是最适合、也最不适合谈Adobe的人。

Of the biases that I experience is that the experts, the creative people are the best people and the worst people to talk to about Adobe.

他们是最适合的，因为显然他们懂行，不然也不会是专家。

They're the best people because they have the most knowledge for obvious reasons, that's why they're experts.

他们也常说，人们想要的是人与人之间的连接。

They're also saying people want that human connection.

他们不想要AI生成的东西。

They don't want something that's created by AI.

持这种想法的人，大多比较有艺术气质，但也有不少人会说，只要过程里用了AI，我根本不在乎是不是AI做的。

The people who think like that by and large might also be more artistic minded, whereas some people might be saying, I don't really care if this is being created by AI as part of the process.

如果能便宜三成，那也没问题。

If I can get it 30% cheaper, then that's fine.

想象你站在加油站，心里想：AI现在可造不出汽油来。

Imagine that you're standing there at the pump and you're like, I know AI doesn't generate gasoline today for what it is.

但如果你发现，嘿，这油只要四块钱？

But if you're like, Hey, yo, I can get this for $4.

这油只要五块钱？

I can get this for $5.

而你只是想开车走人。

And you're like, I just need to drive.

所以，具体到什么地方、什么产品，我觉得这话确实成立——比如艺术，没错，得是人亲手创作的。

And so depending on where you are and what the product is, I think that is true when it comes to say art, yes, it has to be created by a human.

体育赛事也一样，你得亲眼看到运动员本人。

A couple of sports, yes, you need to see the athletes.

但还有很多其他产品，Adobe也可能涉及其中，这时候你就会想：其实大家并不在意AI在制作过程中占了多大比重，三成也好，五成也罢。

But then there are a ton of other products where that Adobe is probably also touching where you're like, I don't know if people care if AI has been a big part of the process thirty:fifty of

是否要创建这个数字产品。

creating this digital product or not.

所以，我会确保附上Adobe估值模型的链接。

So anyways, I'll make sure to link to a model of the valuation here of Adobe.

我也会对Booking.com和Meta做同样的事，这样大家就能自己调整假设来测试了。

I'm going to do the same thing with booking.com and Meta, then people can play around with their own assumptions.

不过，托比，我知道你之前还想聊聊上次你推荐的Bellerin品牌。

But Toby, I know that you also want to chat a bit about Bellerin brands from last time that you pitched.

是的。

Tobias Yeah.

Bellerin品牌已经垮了。

So Bellerin brands has collapsed.

自从我推荐之后，股价就暴跌了。

The stock price has collapsed since I pitched it.

我记不太清具体数字了，好像是27美元左右，现在才八美元出头，跌幅非常大，所以我觉得有必要解释一下。

Think I can't remember exactly, I think it was at about $27 and it's currently trading a little bit north of $8 which is a very significant breakdown in the stock price so I thought I should address it.

自从一年前开始下跌后，股价就一直没缓过来，从高点大幅回落，但我认为现在被严重低估了。

It's basically continued in this drawdown that began twelve months ago and it's had this very significant drawdown from the peak and I think that it is undervalued.

值得注意的是，Bellring Brands背负着相当可观的债务，不过以前公司市值大的时候，这根本没影响业务规模——其实业务本身根本没变。

It's worth noting that Bellring brands does carry a reasonable chunk of debt which when there were much bigger market capitalization, it's funny because it really doesn't impact the size of the business hasn't changed.

过去十二个月，业务略有增长。

Business has grown slightly over the last twelve months.

但增长幅度没达到市场预期，这也是股价大跌的原因之一。他们卖的是即饮蛋白饮料，挺适合赶时间的人。

It's grown less than the market had hoped which is one of the reasons why the stock is down so much but they make these protein ready to drink protein drinks.

不过有人批评他们的产品含有一些植物油和大豆成分，不少消费者对这些配料很反感，这就成了他们的麻烦。

They are attractive to people who are on the go but the criticism of them has been that they have some seed oils in them, they have some soy and folks don't like that if they So that has created a problem for them.

但市场其实还在持续购买。

The market still seems to be consuming.

销量虽然有小幅上升，但增长明显放缓了，这也是股价下跌的主要原因之一。

They have grown a little bit but their growth has slowed materially which is one of the reasons that the stock's down.

你们知道我是个深度价值派，就喜欢便宜货。只要价格够低，哪怕公司暂时有点困难，我也能接受。

You guys know I'm a deep value guy so I big discounts and I don't mind when a business is struggling a little bit if you can get enough of a discount in the price to sort of handicap that slowdown.

所以给你几个数据，它今年同比还是增长了大约6%，但过去它的增速可要快得多。

So just to give you some numbers, it still grew year over year, something like 6% year over year but it has historically grown quite a lot faster than that.

以前市场对这类公司是抱有很高增长预期的，估值也基于这个预期。

That's the markets now where previously it might have been sort of something that had a reasonable chance of growing quite materially, it was being valued on that basis.

现在的问题是，它能不能跑赢成本？按未来盈利算，市盈率才刚过五倍。

The question is now whether it can keep ahead of its inputs On a forward earnings basis, it's a little bit over five times.

这原本是个不错的生意，不过从最近的数据看，业务似乎有点走下坡路。最大的风险在于，它的产品正越来越像大宗商品，在一个竞争激烈的领域里，而且新对手还在不断涌入。

What has been a pretty good business, although the business does seem to be deteriorating a little bit on the base of their last print, I think the great risk for it is that it is close to being commoditized product in a very competitive category and there's more competition coming in all the time.

但另一方面，整个社会正在向更健康的生活方式转变，人们对蛋白质的摄入量也在增加。

You have to weigh that against the fact that there is this general move towards health consciousness as part of that people are consuming more protein.

我之前还以为是GLP这类药物在起作用。

I thought that perhaps it was the GLP ones.

健康行业里的AI热点，其实是GLP这类药，让大家都瘦了下来。

So the AI of the health industry is the GLP one that's making everybody leaner.

但我还是觉得，在这个趋势下，人们需要摄入更多的蛋白质。

I still think as part of that process people need to eat more protein.

GLP这类产品能帮你控制食欲，但一旦达到目标体重，想保持健康体脂率，还是得摄入足够的蛋白质。

The GLP one sort of stop you from eating but once you've reached your goal weight to maintain a healthy body composition you still need to consume protein.

他们确实也在生产蛋白质产品。

They do make protein.

对于特别注重健康、又不喜欢植物油的人来说，这些产品里往往含有植物油，这让他们望而却步。

The question is for folks who are particularly health conscious who don't like the seed oils then these sort of seem to contain them and that seems to be a turn off for many people.

他们还在持续进行大规模的股票回购。

They do continue to make aggressive buybacks.

这让我觉得他们认为自己被低估了，我也觉得确实被低估了。

That says to me that they think that they're undervalued and I tend to think they're undervalued too.

我用几种不同情景做了估值，结果从每股20美元到70美元不等。

I've run a valuation using various different scenarios that it gets you anywhere from $20 at the low end to $70 at the high end.

我知道这个区间跨度很大，但我觉得其中的不确定性是合理的。

I realize that that's that's a very wide margin but I think there is some reasonable uncertainty in that.

现在股价是8美元，还不到最低估值的一半。

Just for context with the stock at $8 it's like half of the low end.

所以我还是觉得这价格挺划算的，我会继续持有。

And so I still think it's pretty good value here and I'm going to continue to hold it.

核心逻辑是成立的，但现在的折扣幅度这么大，我觉得值得留着，看看接下来几季的财报会怎样。

The bare thesis is real, but the discount here is so material that I think it's worth holding to see what the next few quarterly reports look like.

确实非常有吸引力。

Stig Very, very appealing.

我得说，虽然一堆警示信号摆在那儿，但正因如此才有了价值。

I have to say with all the red flags and yes, there's always some hair on it, that's why that's the value.

上回我看到的时候就觉得，这挺有意思的。

Even last time I was like, Wow, that looks interesting.

现在嘛，我也说不准了。

And now, I don't know.

可能价格回到以前的水平了，但这个标的真的很特别。

Probably got angered to the old price, but it's a very interesting one:thirty

逻辑。

thesis.

托比，请继续向我们更新情况。

Please continue to provide us with updates, Toby.

最近小盘和中盘股整体都表现低迷。

There has been this sort of general sworn in small and mid cap stocks.

凡是跟AI或者GLP-1沾边的股票，现在在市场上根本没人搭理。

Everything that's impacted by AI or GLP-one is really can't find a friend in this market.

我注意到，我跟踪的很多公司，业务其实都在好转，甚至比以前更强了，但这种好转正好赶上了AI股最近的反弹。

So I do think that I've seen that generally across a lot of the names that I track that the businesses, if anything the businesses are inflicting up and starting to do a lot better but it's coincided with this recent rally with the AI stocks.

我觉得现在的估值已经到了一个关键节点：要么市场彻底抛弃小盘和微盘股，要么它们很快就会迎头赶上——因为在我看来，未来的回报潜力非常吸引人。

I think the valuations are now looking They're really at a decision point where either the market completely runs away from small and micro or small and micro catches up soon because I think the forward returns to me look very compelling.

这是我管理基金以来，见过的最好的回报前景之一。

They look about as good as they have looked since I've been running the funds.

当市场普遍聚焦于AI这个故事，甚至对这只股票来说还有GLP-1的故事时，资金就会从那些毫无动静的板块抽离，形成一个真空地带，而这正是这些股票目前所处的状况。

And I think that when a lot of the market moves towards one narrative, which is the AI narrative and to some lesser extent specifically for this stock, the GLP one narrative that it does seem to pull money away from the part of the market that hasn't done anything and it creates this little air pocket which seems to have happened for these stocks.

但正如我所说，这也恰恰为这些股票创造了不错的未来回报机会，因为它们的业务基本面其实正在好转，之前只是长期受制于疲软的消费环境。

But as I say, that does seem to me to have created pretty for prospects for reasonable forward returns, pretty good forward returns at the same time as these stocks seem to be inflecting up because they have all suffered from an extended period of a pretty weak consumer.

从我看到的情况来看，这个消费者真的挺艰难的，加上伊朗冲突和能源价格上涨、油价高企，对大家的压力越来越大。

This consumer has really been struggling from what I can see and with this Iran conflict and higher energy prices, high gas prices, that seems to be really putting the bite on people.

我觉得，最适合布局这些持仓的时候，就是市场情绪最悲观的时候。

I think that the time to put these positions on is at the point of maximum pessimism.

我们现在的悲观情绪确实很重。

We're certainly pessimistic.

但愿这已经是悲观的顶点了。

I hope that it's maximum pessimism.

Stig，我太喜欢你这话了。

Stig I love it.

这可是典型的‘最后一句话’啊。

Famous last words.

这话真棒，Toby。

I love it, Toby.

好了，Hari 和 Toby，非常感谢你们。

All right, Hari and Toby, thank you so much.

每次和你聊天都特别开心。

It's always great to chat with you.

接下来交给你们了。

Let me throw it over to you guys.

大家怎么才能更多地了解你们呢？

Where can people learn more about you?

嗨，Toby和Stig，每次参加这个头脑风暴都很愉快。

Hey, Toby and Stig, always a pleasure to join the Mastermind.

你们可以在X或者Twitter上找到我。

You can find me on X or Twitter.

我的用户名是Hari Ramachandra。

My handle is Hari Ramachandra.

我经常在那儿活跃，期待看到大家的评论、反馈和讨论。

I hang out there and I look forward to all your comments, feedback and conversations.

我在Twitter上的用户名是g r e n b a c k d。

And I'm green backed on Twitter, g r e n b a c k d.

我管理着一些收购基金，里面包含ZIGETF，主要投资中大型企业的深度价值股，还有DeepETF，专注小型和微型企业的深度价值股。

I manage acquirers funds which has these ZIG ETF which is mid and large cap deep value and the deep ETF which is small and micro deep value.

目前深度价值股和市场整体的价差非常大，我觉得主要是由大语言模型的风险推动的。

The spreads between deep value and the market are extreme at the moment and largely driven I think by the LLM risks.

但这些基金里持有的很多股票，未来都会从中受益。

But a lot of the stocks that are in those are gonna be beneficiaries.

只要大语言模型还不能自己去地下挖矿、提取能源，我们就依然需要实实在在的企业。

Until the LLMs figure out how to mine and pull energy out of the ground that we're going to need real businesses.

太棒了。

Wonderful.

非常感谢你们抽出时间，两位。

Thank you so much for your time, Gents.

像往常一样，能和你们交流真是荣幸。

It's a privilege as always.

谢谢，Stig。

Thanks, Stig.

谢谢，哈里。

Thanks, Hari.

总是这么棒。

Always great.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢，托比。

Thank you, Toby.

是斯蒂格。

It's Stig.

很高兴见到你们两位。

Good seeing you both.

感谢收听《投资者播客》。

Thanks for listening to TIP.

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Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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Listeners should do their own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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