TIP827：Auto1 股票（AG1）：这是汽车界的亚马逊吗？与 Daniel Mahncke 和 Shawn O'Malley 对谈

更精准的定价模型让他们能给卖家提供稍高一点的即时报价，同时给经销商更紧的价差。

A more accurate pricing model lets them offer sellers a slightly better instant price and quote dealers more tightly.

更多卖家和买家回来交易，意味着交易量增加，这又让整个模型变得更精准，形成良性循环。

More sellers and more buyers come back, which means more transactions, which makes the whole model better again and around it goes.

在我看来，Auto1 很可能成为那种规模效应显著的平台型公司，正是尼克·斯莱普喜欢投资的类型。

So to me, this looks like Auto1 might become one of those scale economy shared businesses that Nick Sleip loves to invest in.

他是我们最欣赏的传奇投资人之一。

He's one of our favorite legendary investors.

每提升一点规模，Auto1 就能给卖家报出稍好一点的价格，给经销商更紧的价差。

And every gain and scale lets Auto1 quote sellers a slightly better price and dealers a slightly tighter spread.

但他们并不把这些差价当作利润吞下，而是反哺给买卖双方，吸引更多交易量。

And instead of pocketing that as margin, they pass it back to both sides to pull in more volume.

另一方面，这还涉及网络效应。

And the other side of it is network effects.

要让双边市场运转起来，两边的用户都得存在，这很明显。

So to make a two sided market work, you need both sides of the market actually to be there, obviously.

在网站上，经销商不会来，因为没人出价给他们好价格；买家也不会来，因为根本没什么车值得他们专程来看。

And on a website, dealers won't come because there are no customers bidding to offer them a good price, and the customers won't come because there are no cars that are actually worth showing up for.

进入这个行当特别难，因为每个新玩家都得跟Auto1的规模竞争。

And it's incredibly difficult to break into this business because every new entrant now has to compete with the scale of Auto1.

如果你是经销商，根本不会转投其他平台，毕竟他们能提供的成交量只有Auto1的十分之一左右。

And if you're a dealer, you won't switch to another player who can only offer, let's say, 10% of the volume that Auto1 can offer.

所以经销商和买家都没理由换平台。

So there's just no incentive for both dealers and also the buyers to switch.

再强调一下规模，我刚才提过，Auto1合作的经销商有六万家，其中大约三万五千家在上个季度至少买过一辆车。

And just to point out the scale again, I mentioned that a minute ago, Auto1 works with 60,000 dealers, of which about 35,000 actively bought a car, at least one car, in the most recent quarter.

他们还把车卖给了超过十万名消费者。

And, you know, they also sell to over a 100,000 consumers.

至少这是我个人的估计。

And at least that's, you know, my guess.

去年他们卖了一百万辆车给消费者。

They sold a 100,000 cars to consumers last year.

而且我猜，外面很少有人会买超过一辆车，所以我觉得，独特的消费者数量应该也差不多在同一个量级。

And since I assume there are few people out there who buy more than one car, I also guess that, you know, the number of unique consumers should at least be in the same region.

我觉得这个假设挺合理的。

I think that's a pretty fair assumption.

不过你刚才提到了创始人，说他们俩现在还参与公司运营。

You briefly mentioned though the founders and that they're both still involved in the business.

所以我猜他们俩也持有相当大比例的股份。

So I assume they also both own a good chunk of stock.

是这样吗？

Is that true?

没错。

They do.

而且他们持有的股份还真不少。

And they actually own quite a lot.

现任首席执行官克里斯蒂安·伯特曼持有公司大约百分之十二点五的股份。

So Christian Berthemann, the current CEO, owns about 12 and a half percent of the company.

而现任董事长哈坎·科赫持有约9%的股份。

And Hakan Koch, who is now the chairman, owns about 9%.

我还挺欣赏另一个细节，因为我们通常都很关注激励机制，而这位CEO最近刚拿到了一套新的激励方案。

There's another detail that I actually quite like because usually, we pay close attention to incentive systems, and the CEO actually just got a new one.

他的新合约为期五年，到2030年到期，关键目标是公司股价必须在2030年底前，至少有一次达到75欧元的三个月平均价。

So his new deal is a five year term running through 2030, and the key hurdle rate is the share price has to hit €75 measured as a three month average at least once by the end of twenty thirty.

目前股价大约在20欧元左右，签约时也没高多少，这让我觉得CEO本人是真相信这个目标能实现。

So currently, the stock is priced at about €20 and it wasn't materially higher when this deal was signed, so that makes me assume that the CEO does actually believe this is a realistic target to hit.

有意思的是，新任CFO的奖金也跟同样的指标挂钩。

And the interesting thing is that the new CFO got a bonus tied to the same structure.

这一点对我来说挺重要的，因为未来CFO在Auto1的作用会重要得多，公司现在也在拓展融资业务。

And that kind of matters to me because the CFO in the future will play a significantly more important role at Auto1 because the company is now growing its financing business as well.

我们待会儿再聊这个。

We'll talk about that.

而且我觉得Auto1在放贷业务上明显采取了更谨慎的态度，这一点我很欣赏。

And I actually like that Auto1 seems to be taking a much more cautious approach there in their lending business.

比如Carvana，这点挺好，因为我并不想投资一家汽车零售公司，它的毛利有一半来自次级贷款——据我了解，Carvana现在就是这种情况。

And for example, Carvana, which is good because I don't want to own a car retail business where half of its gross profits are coming from subprime loans, which is to my understanding sort of the situation that Carvana is in.

Auto1的做法显然不是这样，这很好。

It's certainly not Auto1's approach, which is good.

一般来说，在股票市场上，次级贷款几乎不存在。

I mean, generally there's close to no subprime lending in your stock market.

再回到CEO的薪酬，他的奖金范围在4亿到9亿美元之间，具体数额取决于股票届时的实际价格。

To get back to the CEO payment one more time, on the size of the bonus payment, The CEO would get a payout of 400 to €900,000,000, basically depending on how much the stock will actually be worth at the time.

只有当股价涨到目前的八倍左右时，9亿美元的奖金才有可能实现。

So the €900,000,000 would only be possible if the stock is, I think, was about eight times higher than it currently is.

此外还有一个条件，就是调整后的EBITDA也要达标。

And there's also a second factor that has to be met, and that's adjusted EBITDA.

我不想在这上面纠缠太多细节，当然，我们对EBITDA这种指标并不太感冒。

And I don't wanna get, you know, too much into the details here, and of course, we're not huge fans of EBITDA.

但总体来说，我很欣赏这种设计：如果未来四年股价能翻四倍，CEO就能拿到一笔丰厚的报酬。

But generally, I do like the idea that the CEO gets paid a good amount of money when the stock quadruples in the next four years.

除此之外，他的基本工资其实挺低的。

And beyond that, his salary is actually quite low.

我觉得大概在五十万美元左右。

I think we talk about 500 k.

所以他主要的收入来源其实是股票，一方面是因为我们刚才说的这个激励方案，另一方面是他持有公司12%的股份。

So his main way of making money is really the stock, both because of, you know, this package we just talked about, as well as his 12% stake in the company.

是的。

Yeah.

要是谁的年薪只有五十万，那真算低的了。

If anybody here is at 500 k, is a low salary.

我们得强调一下，这是在和其他CEO的薪酬做对比的背景下说的。

I think we should emphasize, that this is in the context of talking about what other CEOs make.

不过刚才你讲了在Virchowf和Dyna Auto上卖车的流程，就是我们收购你的车。

But yeah, earlier you walked us through the process of selling a car on Virchowf and Dyna Auto, we buy your car.

那Auto1买下这辆车之后，接下来会发生什么？

And so now what happens after Auto1 has bought the car?

他们有几种可能的渠道。

They have a couple of potential routes.

第一个渠道是 auto1.com。

So the first pathway is auto1.com.

这有点容易混淆，但这就是他们的批发交易平台。

And again, it's a bit confusing, but that's their wholesale marketplace.

它的名字和公司整体名称一样，所以每当我提到 auto1.com，指的就是这个平台。

So it basically has the same name as the overall company, and so whenever I say auto1.com, that's being the marketplace.

这是一种选择，车会卖到欧洲各地的经销商手里，大约90%的车都是走这条路。

And that's one of the options where the car just gets sold to a dealer somewhere in Europe, and about 90% of cars actually take this way.

我之前提到的那位在行业里工作的朋友，就是在 auto1.com 的竞争对手那里做销售。

And the friend that I mentioned earlier who works in the industry is doing sales for a competitor of auto1.com.

据他所说，这个渠道的周转量非常大。

So the turnover channel, as he's telling me, is quite high.

如果你卖的车数量多，其实也能在这行赚不少钱。

And if you sell a lot of cars, you can actually also make pretty good money in this business.

对于Auto1来说，通常需要一个月左右才能完成整个库存的周转。

So for Auto1, it usually takes about a month to turn around the entire inventory.

虽然需要投入不少资金，但资金占用的时间并不算长。

So while you take on a lot of capital, it's also not tied up that long.

第二个选择是通过Auto Hero这个零售渠道把车卖给消费者。

And then the second option is for the car to be sold on Auto Hero, the retail channel.

如果他们觉得车直接卖给个人能赚更多，就会送到他们的大型整备中心，进行维修、拍照、上架，然后交付给买家，还提供分期付款和退车保障。

So So if they think the car will earn more money if it's sold directly to a consumer, they send it to one of their big reconditioning centers, they fix it up, they photograph it, they list it, and deliver it to a buyer store with, you know, financing if they want to, and also a return policy.

这个渠道的周期要长三到四倍，所以Auto1必须比在批发渠道里更久地持有库存。

So that channel takes about three to four times longer, so Auto1 has to hold on to the inventory much longer compared to the wholesale channel.

我觉得三到四个月确实挺长的，我们前面提到的那些倒闭公司，很多在破产前也都因为库存积压而陷入困境。

And I think that three to four months seems quite long, and many of the dying companies we talked about at the beginning also suffered from elevated inventory levels before they went out of business.

这对他们的现金周转周期来说是个好事吗？

And does this sound like a good thing for their cash conversion cycle?

并不是，但我回听了过去两年的财报电话会，发现他们多次提到库存和相关策略，毕竟这是个关键话题。

It does not, but I did listen back to the earnings calls from the last two years and they talked about inventory and their strategy in a couple of them, obviously, because it's an important topic.

早在2025年底，他们的说法是，我们有意在扩充车源，这也很合理，因为当时他们大力加大了对Auto Hero品牌营销的投入。

Back in late twenty twenty five, the framing was basically, you know, we're deliberately building up selection, and it also made sense because at the time, they massively ramped up the investments for the Auto Hero brand marketing.

他们砸钱把Auto Hero打造成欧洲家喻户晓的品牌，就像那些知名汽车厂商那样——你总不能把一大堆新用户引到网站上，却让他们找不到车可买吧。

So pouring money into making Auto Hero a household name across Europe and similar to the vehicle from that auto brand, and you can't, you know, drive a bunch of new shoppers to your site and then leave them with nothing to buy.

一般来说，零售业务的库存周转周期本来就比批发业务长得多。

And generally, retail just has longer days outstanding than merchants.

这其实就是零售行业本身的特性，你得接受这一点。

So that's, you know, kind of the nature of the game that you're playing.

零售车要经过整备、拍照、配送，搁置的时间比批发车长得多，后者大概一个月就卖出去了。

A retail car, you know, sits while it gets refurbished, photographed, and delivered versus a wholesale car that's, you know, gone in about a month.

这部分是行业结构决定的，不能说这是Auto1独有的问题。

So a chunk of that is structural, and I wouldn't say that it's a problem that Auto1 specifically has.

但在最近一次财报电话会上，CEO还提到了一套全新的Auto Hero交易平台，配了新的库存算法，专门用来加快库存周转，很多时候还能减少库存总量。

But on the latest earnings call, the CEO also talked about a new Auto Hero trading system with a new stocking algorithm that's specifically designed to turn inventory faster, and in a lot of cases, actually also hold less of it.

所以在我看来，这明显说明他们也想提升零售业务的库存周转效率。

So to me, this does signal that they do want to improve the turnover in the retail side of the business as well.

咱们不妨更详细地算算这笔账？

How about we walk through the economics a little more here?

我现在已经很清楚，为什么这个双边市场能运转起来，为什么经销商和消费者都愿意用Auto1的平台。

I have a pretty good understanding now of why the two sided marketplace works and why it makes sense for both dealers and consumers to use the Auto1 ecosystem.

这确实是个双赢的局面。

You have a win win dynamic for sure.

但Auto1到底从这里面赚了多少钱？

But how much money does Auto1 actually make from all this?

我猜消费者业务的利润应该更高，但你说他们90%的交易量其实都来自经销商渠道。

I assume the consumer business is probably more profitable, but you said 90% of their volume actually goes through the dealer channel.

所以首先我想知道的是

So the first thing I should

要说的是，在这个行业里，收入这个数字其实没什么意义。比如我卖一辆车卖了2.5万欧元，账面上是2.5万的收入，但实际毛利可能就一千到两千欧元。

say is that revenue is basically meaningless in this business because you know, if I sell a car for €25,000, I book 25,000 of revenue, but I maybe keep a thousand or maybe 2,000 of gross profit.

所以车本身占了售价的85%到90%。

So the car is 85 to 90% of the price.

所以真正关键的数字其实是每辆车的毛利润，大家都叫它GPU，也就是每单位毛利润。

So the only number that matters is actually gross profit per car, which everyone calls GPU, gross profit per unit.

在批发端，也就是商家业务，去年他们卖了将近75万辆车，平均每辆价格在8500欧元左右。

So on the wholesale side, the merchant business, they did just under 750,000 cars last year with an average price of around 8 and a half thousand euros.

每辆车的毛利润大约是1000欧元。

And they made about a thousand euros of gross profit GPU for that cost.

这相当于11%到12%的毛利率。

That's about an 11 to 12% gross margin.

而在零售端，Auto Hero去年只卖了大约10万辆车，但平均价格翻了一倍。

And on the retail side, Auto Hero has only about a 100,000 cars sold, but the average price is doubled.

大概在17000欧元左右。

So around 17.

每辆车的毛利润大约是2600欧元。

And the GPU is about €2,600.

所以毛利率大概在15%。

So, you know, 15% gross margin.

所以零售车的毛利是批发车的2.5到2.6倍。

So retail car earns 2.5, 2.6 times the gross profit of a wholesale car.

那么从长远来看，目标是不是让业务重心从批发转向更多面向消费者的销售？

So is the longer term goal to see a mix shift from wholesale to more consumer focused sales?

他们肯定会更大力拓展消费者渠道，顺便说一句，这个渠道增长得非常快，而且已经超过了批发渠道。

I'm sure they would take more growth in the consumer channel, which by the way is growing at a fast clip and also outpacing the wholesale channel.

但这只是其中一个可调整的方面。

But it's only one lever to pull.

批发渠道的利润率虽然低，但周转速度快，让整个业务的实际盈利水平远比表面上看起来要高得多。

So the wholesale channels margin is much lower, but the faster turnaround makes this business actually way more profitable than it appears at first glance.

我觉得这里的逻辑有点像一个误区，就是以为一家公司只要投资回报率达到50%，就一定是家了不起的公司。

So I would say the dynamic here is a bit similar to the fallacy of thinking that a company is, you know, fantastic when it has 50% return to invested capital.

一般来说，大家都会认同这一点。

Generally, obviously, everybody would agree with that.

但如果公司本身缺乏再投资的机会，那即使投资回报率再高，也不代表它就是一家真正出色的公司。

But if there are few reinvestment opportunities in the business, then even the best return on invested capital doesn't actually mean it's a fantastic business.

而这种情况恰恰相反，批发业务看起来没那么好，但实际上它的库存每月都能周转一次，相当于每年把投入的资本循环使用了12次。

And in this case, it's somewhat of the opposite, where the business channel looks worse than it actually is, because if the wholesale channel turns inventory every single month, then they recycle the capital that they have invested about 12 times a year.

如果你每辆车能赚5%的EBITDA利润，再把资金周转12次，那么实际占用资本的回报率差不多能达到60%，这还没算上运营成本和其他开销。

So if you make an, you know, 5% EBITDA margin on each car and you turn the money 12 times, the return on the capital that is actually tied up is something like 60% before you account for overhead costs and all of the other stuff.

对我来说，占用资本能有60%的回报，这已经是个相当不错的生意了。

So to me, you know, 60% on the tied up capital sounds like a pretty fantastic business.

零售车虽然每台赚得更多，但一辆车要停上三到四个月。

And the retail car obviously earns way more per unit, but it also sits for three to four months.

而且这中间还牵扯到整备、交付、营销等一系列环节。

And, you know, it leads into reconditioning, delivery, marketing.

这些环节让资金被长期占用，成本也相应高得多。

So there's just a lot of costs that is basically tied up with that capital for a much longer time.

另外，也很重要的是要看运营费用的覆盖情况。

And I would say it's also important to look at operating expense coverage.

扣除运营成本后，卖给经销商的车几乎没什么利润了。

So after accounting for the operating expenses, units sold to a merchant barely make money anymore.

所以利润空间非常非常薄。

So the margin is very, very slim.

在最理想的情况下，运营成本会随着时间逐渐降低。

So in a best case scenario, you have operating expenses come down over time.

我们看到零售销量在上升，同时库存周转速度也在加快。

We see a shift toward retail volume, and then also we see faster inventory turnover.

这三方面一起作用，才能实现管理层的目标：拿下10%的市场份额，大幅提升运营杠杆，让公司变得比过去几年好得多。

Kind of all of those three things combined, that's how you get to, you know, what management wants, 10% market share, significantly more operating leverage, and significantly better company than we have seen in the past few years.

现在前两项已经初见成效，Auto1也在积极提升周转效率，试图让第三点也跑起来。

And to already see the first two happening and Auto1 is actively working on further improving turnover to also get this third engine going.

你之前提到过，另一个可能成为未来更大利润来源的业务是金融业务。

You hit it before at another part of the business that might become a bigger margin driver over time, but that's financing.

你已经说过这跟Carvana的模式不太一样，但再简单说一下，Carvana大约一半的毛利来自所谓的次级汽车贷款。

And you already said it's not quite like the Carvana business, but just to rehash it, Carvana makes about half of its gross profit from what you might call subprime auto loans.

所以它更像是一家放贷公司，而不仅仅是一家普通的汽车经销商。

So it's more of a low quality lending business than even just a regular car dealership.

根据你之前跟我说的关于Auto1的情况，他们根本不是这么做的。

From what you've told me about Auto1 so far, that is not at all what they do.

是的。

Yeah.

所以再说一遍，Auto1完全不靠次级车贷赚钱，因为在欧洲，次级车贷根本不像在美国那样存在。

So again, Auto1 doesn't make meaningful money from subprime loans at all, because in Europe, subprime auto lending basically, I would say it doesn't exist the way it does in The US.

我的意思是，监管明显严格得多。

I mean, the regulation is obviously much stricter.

而且利率一直保持得比较低，整个市场主要集中在优质和准优质客户。

You also have kept interest rates, and the whole market skews prime and near prime.

所以，信贷风险的结构跟美国的汽车或消费者完全不同。

So the credit risk profile is structurally different from, you know, cars or consumers in The US.

据估计，美国汽车金融市场的15%到20%属于次级贷款。

And it's estimated that about 15 to 20% of The entire US auto finance market is subprime.

而在欧洲，这个比例只有2%到3%左右。

Whereas in Europe, that number is closer to two or 3%.

那他们同时向买卖双方提供贷款吗？

So do they lend to both sides of the market?

既面向消费者，也面向经销商？

The consumers and the dealers?

我知道一些电商公司就是这么做的。

I know that's something we've seen with some e commerce players.

我们最近跟Grab的CFO彼得·赵聊过，他说Grab一开始主要给司机放贷，因为他们对司机的数据掌握得更全面，远比对消费者的了解要好。

When we talked to Grab's CFO, Peter Oey recently, he said that Grab focused on loaning to drivers first since they had more data on them that was much better than what they had on consumers.

没错，这正是Grab和像Shopee或者Sea Limited这样的大型电商平台之间的区别。

Yeah, that's the difference between Grab and for example, the

大型电商平台像Shopee或Sea Limited当然也掌握着商家的丰富数据，但他们对消费者的数据同样极其宝贵，这让向消费者放贷不像对Grab那样充满不确定性，尤其是在早期阶段。

big e commerce players like Malley or Sea Limited because they obviously have great data on merchants as well but they also have incredibly valuable data on their consumers which obviously makes lending to consumers a bit less of a black box as it might have been for Grab, especially in the beginning.

Auto1也是同时向买卖双方提供贷款。

Auto1 is also lending to both sides of the market.

在经销商这边，他们提供贷款主要是为了帮助经销商融资购车库存。

So on the dealer side, they're lending to basically fund the inventory that dealers buy.

在消费者这边，他们为Auto Hero的买家提供融资。

And on the consumer side, they're financing the Auto Hero buyers.

有趣的是，过去Auto1本质上只是一个线索生成平台，他们会把客户转介绍给其他贷款机构，自己就赚一点推荐佣金——很多刚开始做贷款业务的公司都是这么做的。

And the interesting evolution is that historically, Auto1 was basically just a lead engine, so they would hand the customer off to some other lender, and then just, you know, make this little margin on the referral, as we've seen with a lot of businesses when they started out the lending business.

但现在，他们把Intrinsic完全整合进来了。

Now though, they are vertically integrating Intrinsic.

也就是说，他们自己发起贷款，然后把贷款打包成证券出售。

So that means they originate the loans themselves, then they securitize them.

这意味着Auto1现在自己放贷，成为真正的贷款方，客户欠的是Auto1的钱。

And what that means is that Auto1 now makes the loan itself, it's the lender, and the customer owes Auto1.

这种方式利润高得多，但也会占用大量资金，因为Auto1得自己掏钱放贷，然后等上好几年才能收回本金。

And that's a way more profitable way to do it, but it also ties up way more capital, because Auto1 actually has to go out and fund the loan, and then wait years until the loan is actually repaid.

我们先休息一下，听听今天的赞助商怎么说。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

大卫，你对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步吗？

David Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人在这么做。

You're not alone.

Plus500期货是个不错的入门选择。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场变化很快，有了Plus500，你可以轻松交易原油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有不少动态值得关注。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

平台操作非常简单，随时随地用手机就能交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

只需100美元就能开户，立刻参与交易。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的机会了吗？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，几下点击就能下单交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，也可以先用免费的模拟账户练习。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

零风险，没压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500 让交易变得前所未有的简单。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

马上去 plus500.com 了解一下吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易存在亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请人都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，让交易更胜一筹。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

假设你的企业每天都在落后于人工智能，两天就掉队了。

Let's say everyday your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.

竞争对手只会越来越快，你该怎么跟上？

The competition is only moving faster, so how do you keep up?

幸运的是，接下来是NetSuite。

Fortunately, there's Netsuite next.

你可能听说过NetSuite，这是一个由AI驱动的商业管理平台，能安全地把你的所有数据、财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系整合在一个可信的统一系统里，已有四万三千多家企业信赖它。

You probably know Netsuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all of your data, financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM in a single source of truth, trusted by over 43,000 customers.

NetSuite Next彻底改变了企业运营的方式，因为AI已经融入了你做的每一件事。

Netsuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done, because AI is built into everything you do.

它会在你一整天的工作中，主动提供个性化的洞察。

It surfaces custom insights throughout your day.

AI助手会跟你并肩工作，帮你处理那些琐碎的事务。

AI agents work alongside you to handle the routine work.

无论你有任何问题，随时像跟同事聊天一样问出来就行。

And anytime you have a question about anything, just ask like you're talking to a colleague.

我自己在用，你也一定要试试。

I use this and you should too.

史上第一次，你可以免费试用NetSuite Next。

For the first time ever, you can try Netsuite Next for free.

如果你的年收入至少达到七位数，请访问 netsuite.ai/tip。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.ai/tip.

适用于各行各业，随时准备进入高层决策会议。

Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom.

Netsuite.ai/tip。

Netsuite.aitip.

那唯一的一个

What's the one

在商业领域里，像

thing in business spreading as fast

人工智能

as AI?

这样的东西

AI risk.

传播速度有多快呢？人工智能风险。你的团队每注册一个新工具，每个供应商每开启一个AI功能，每次新的集成，每一个环节都可能成为出错的突破口。

Every new tool your team signs up for, every vendor that flips on AI features, every fresh integration, each one is another opening for something to go wrong.

大多数安全问题根本跟不上AI发展的速度。

And most security problems simply weren't built for the pace AI is moving.

这时候，Vanta就派上用场了。

Enter Vanta.

Vanta是排名第一的智能信任平台，已被超过一万六千家快速发展的公司信赖，包括Ramp、Cursor和Harvey，帮助它们随时应对审计。

Vanta is the number one agentic trust platform trusted by over 16,000 fast moving companies, including Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey to stay audit ready.

现在，Vanta还帮助像你这样的公司，在两次审计之间的空档期，发现供应商、AI工具和整个环境中的潜在风险。

And now Vanta is helping companies like yours catch the risks that show up between audits across your vendors, your AI tools, and your whole environment.

怎么做呢？

How?

Vanta代理就像一位24小时在线的GRC工程师，在后台持续运行，自动发现隐患、为你起草解决方案，并将供应商评估时间缩短多达50%。

The Vanta agent works like a twenty four seven GRC engineer running in the background, finding issues, drafting fixes for you, and cutting vendor assessment time by up to 50%.

无论你是快速增长的初创企业，还是全球性大型企业，Vanta都能帮你自动化安全与合规流程，建立并提升信任。

Whether you're a fast growing startup or a global enterprise, Vanta is here to help you automate your security and compliance and earn, improve trust.

立即访问 vanta.com/tip 开始使用。

Get started today at vanta.com/tip.

就是 vanta.com/tip。

That's vanta.com/tip.

好了，我们继续节目。

All right, back to the show.

我想，证券化就是他们回笼资金的方式，对吧？

And I guess securitizing is how they get that cash back, right?

他们是把成千上万笔汽车贷款打包，然后把由还款支撑的债券卖给外部投资者。

I mean, they bundle thousands of these car loans together and then sell the bonds that are backed by the loan repayments to outside investors.

Auto1 通过出售这些债券获得资金，而买家则能拿到相应的利息。

And you know, Auto1 then gets money through the sale of those bonds and the buyers get the interest paid on them.

有了这笔钱，Auto1 就能去发放新的贷款，整个循环就这么持续下去。

You know, with the money that Auto1 is getting, they can go out and then fund new loans and then the cycle just continues.

要评估贷款质量，最好的办法就是看实际需求和利率水平。

And the best way to check the quality of the loans is to see how demand actually looked and the interest rate that was charged.

所以 Auto1 为其第二笔消费类资产支持证券定价，大约是两亿五千万欧元。

So Auto1 priced their second consumer ABS, and ABS just stands for asset backed securities at about €250,000,000.

而且认购远超预期。

And it was heavily oversubscribed.

如果认购超预期，说明想买这些债券的人特别多，这样一来，卖方——也就是Auto1——就能抬高价格，同时压低利率。

And, you know, if it's oversubscribed, that just means that there are a lot more buyers competing to get their hands on the bonds, which also means that the seller, which in this case is Auto1, can push up the price and at the same time push down the interest rate.

我记得最终利率大概是比欧央行的基准利率高出87个基点，那个基准利率就是欧洲银行间拆借利率。

So I think the interest rate ended up at about 87 basis points over the oil rebar, which is the benchmark rate, and the rate banks lend to each other in Europe.

也就是说，Auto1要支付基准利率再加上0.87%的额外利息。

And at 87 basis points over means that Auto1 pays the benchmark, so the order book rate, plus point 87%.

这个利差其实就是投资者对这些贷款风险所要求的额外回报。

And that spread is basically the risk premium that investors demand for lending against these loans.

通常来说，利差越小，市场就越觉得背后的抵押资产越安全。

And, you know, the rule of thumb is that the tighter the spread, the safer the market thinks the collateral is.

可能我讲得有点太细了，但这段内容让我想起了大学时学债券定价的那些课。

Maybe I went into way too much detail here, but it kind of gave me flashbacks to my university class of, you know, pricing bonds and all of it.

我觉得既然我都熬了一遍，那咱们听众也得跟着一起受受罪。

I thought if I would suffer through it, all of our listeners have to too.

不，我觉得这是个很好的知识点。

No, I think it's a good learning point.

而且说实话，知道这里没有次级贷款，我感觉安心多了。

And, you know, I feel much more comfortable knowing that there's no subprime lending going on here.

但 downside 是，放贷业务的利润空间现在变小了，对吧？

But the downside is that the upside from the lending business is now going to be lower, right?

如果去掉 Carvana 通过卖贷款赚的利润，其余业务的利润率恐怕也很难达到三分之一。

And so if you take away Carvana's profits from selling loans, the rest of the business wouldn't necessarily be generating one:thirty particularly much in profits.

没错。

That's right.

所以没有次级贷款意味着风险大幅降低，但同时也意味着他们几乎不可能像 Carvana 那样把毛利做到一半以上。

So no subprime means significantly less risk, but it also means they will most likely never get financing to reach 50% of gross profit as Kavana does.

所以我把融资看作第三个业务板块，未来或许还能成为他们的利润来源。

So I see financing here more as you know, a third business unit and potentially in the future, a margin level for them.

这也是为什么新 CFO 要来的原因——我们待会儿会讲到，但他不会接管整个业务，说实话，我觉得这样挺好。

And it's also why the new CFO is coming in for, which we'll get to, but it won't take over the business, which to be totally honest, I kind of like.

我们研究过不少做融资的公司，经常提到这里面的不对称性。

We looked at a lot of companies now that do a lot of financing, and we often talk about the sort of asymmetry there.

如果一切顺利，那当然最好。

If everything goes well, that's perfect.

但一旦出问题，你可能会亏掉大笔钱，甚至整个公司都垮了。

But if things go south, you lose a whole lot of money and basically your entire business.

当然，我们需要指出一点：和我们之前看过的其他公司相比，那些大多在新兴市场，而这家是在德国。

Of course, the one caveat that we should point out here is that compared to most other businesses that we looked at, which were all in emerging markets, this is a company in Germany.

所以，贷款利率、利息水平，还有融资业务的风险，都比我们过去看过的其他公司低得多。

So, you know, the lending rates, the interest rates, and also the risk of the lending businesses is significantly lower than all the other businesses that we looked at in the past.

我仍然会因为Auto1的核心业务而考虑投资，而不是仅仅因为它的贷款业务。

And I would still want to buy Auto1 for its core business and not for lending alone.

总的来说，我对融资业务并不太感兴趣。

So I'm generally not a huge fan of lending businesses.

但如果它能增强整体生态，而且风险有限——就像这次的情况——那它确实能为公司的增长飞轮带来很大助力。

But if they strengthen the overall ecosystem and they come with limited risk, which, again, I think in this case is the case, they are a great addition to the potential flywheel of the company.

咱们聊聊竞争吧？

How about we talk competition?

你有本地车行，有分类信息巨头，还有一些整合型玩家。

You've got local car dealers, you've got the classifieds giants, and then you've got some other integrated players.

能给我讲讲这三类竞争对手的情况吗？你觉得对Auto1威胁最大的是哪一类？

And so walk me through the three different competitor sets here and where you see the biggest risk for Auto1.

有没有哪一类特别让你担心？

And if you think any of them are actually a particularly concerning risk.

理论上，本地车行的优势在于本地社区的信任感，还有实体店面的存在。

So in theory, the advantages of local dealers are trust within the local community and also a physical presence.

但我对‘信任’这个因素的实际价值持保留态度，毕竟如果你是个回头客，你确实会认识并信任附近的经销商。

I'm not sure how much value I give the trust factor because if you are a repeat customer, you might know your dealer close by and you actually trust him.

但大多数人十年里可能就买一两次车。

But I believe that most people buy a car maybe once or twice in a decade.

说实话，我也说不准。

And I don't know.

在我看来，光靠这些还不足以让人对经销商建立起信任。

That's not really enough to build trust with a dealer, in my opinion.

所以我不觉得大多数人会比信赖分类广告平台或Auto1这样的公司更信赖实体经销商。

So I don't believe most people rank physical dealers higher on the trust scale compared to classifieds or companies like Auto1.

不过我相信，能亲自看到车这一点确实很重要。

I do believe the fact that you can actually see the car before you buy it matters though.

如果你在Auto Hero上买车，提车前不一定能亲眼见到车。

So if you buy a car on Auto Hero, you don't necessarily see it in person before it's delivered.

但这也没太大问题，因为Auto Hero的退车政策挺完善的。

And that's not too bad because Auto Hero does have a pretty good return policy.

你可以直接把车退回去，而且没有任何隐藏费用。

So you can actually send the car back, and there are no hidden fees.

但即便如此，我还是希望买车前能亲眼看看车，顺便试开一下。

Still though, I think I would like to see the car before I actually buy it and, you take it for a test ride.

倒不是觉得车肯定有问题，但至少能避免因为不合心意而退车，省得麻烦。

Not that I would find anything wrong with the car, but still, just so I can, you know, save myself the headache of actually sending back a car if it's not the right fit.

所以我猜你是翻遍了无数条评论吧？或者说，你是怎么弄清楚这些流程这么顺畅的？

So I'm imagining you just pouring over endless reviews or I mean, how did you figure out that things work so seamlessly?

是的，我确实看了不少评价，还看了些视频，都是别人从Auto Hero提车的，我都是开到两倍半速看的。

Yeah, did go through some reviews and then I watched some videos at of course, two and a half times speed where people actually got their car from Auto Hero.

我还问了几个在那儿买过车的人。

And I also talked to some people who bought their car there.

而且他们那个NPS评分高达70，这个数据是公开的，谁都查得到，相当不错了。

And they also have, everybody can look that up, an NPS score of 70, which is pretty good.

举个例子，NPS评分不是从0到100的。

I mean, for context, the NPS scale doesn't go from zero to a 100.

它的范围其实是从-100到100。

It actually starts at minus 100, and then it goes to 100.

所以70分真的很高了。

So 70 is really good.

这可不是七十分满分那种概念。

It's not like a seven out of 10 or something like that.

所以根据这些数据，你甚至会认为Auto1比本地经销商更值得信赖。

So you might even give, based on these numbers, the trust argument to Auto1 over local dealerships.

而且总的来说，他们明显缺乏让Auto1如此有吸引力的优势。

And just overall, they obviously lack the advantages that is making Auto1 so attractive.

对吧？

Right?

他们没有覆盖全欧洲的业务。

They have no pan European operations.

他们永远不可能达到同样的规模，诸如此类。

They have no chance to have the same scale at any time, and so on.

我觉得，至少在面向消费者的业务上，更大的竞争对手其实是像mobila.com这样的分类广告平台，它是德国领先的分类平台，还有AutoSport二十四。

And I would probably say that the bigger competitor, at least for the consumer facing business, are these classifieds like mobila.com, which is the leading classified in Germany, and AutoSport twenty four.

它们不像Auto1那样实现垂直整合。

And they are not vertically integrated like Auto1.

就像我们之前说的，它们只是连接买家和卖家，并不直接接触车辆，因此也得不到Auto1那样的数据，因为它们没有机会利用国际价差进行套利。

And as we mentioned before, they only connect buyers and sellers, so they don't actually touch the cards, and thus they also don't have the data that Auto1 has, because they lack the opportunity for these arbitrage international price differences.

真正让我担心的竞争对手，只有那些同样垂直整合的平台。

The only competitors that would actually worry me would be other similarly vertically integrated marketplaces.

但正如我在开头提到的，这也是我这么做的原因，这类公司现在基本已经不存在了。

But as I mentioned in my intro, which is kind of why I did it, they basically don't exist anymore.

有一个名字，再次和我们的Exor投资逻辑相关，那就是Arames公司。

There's one name that, once again, is linked to our Exor thesis, and there's a company called Arames.

Arames是Celentis及其整个生态系统的一部分。

And Arames is part of Celentis and their entire ecosystem.

理论上，它既有B2C业务，也有B2B业务。

And in theory, it has both a b to c and also b to b business.

不过我得说，它的B2B业务规模远小于Auto1。

I have to say though, the B2B business is way smaller than Auto1's.

所以它更接近像mobila.com和AutoSport24这样的分类广告平台。

So it's closer to the classifieds like mobila.com and autosquad24.

而Arames的业务实际上已经停滞了，相比之下，Auto1的增长率却超过了30%。

And Aromis is actually flat lining, while Auto1 is growing at, you know, growth rates beyond 30%.

其实我一听到你提起Stellantis，就预感你要说一个走下坡路的生意了。

You know, I had this bad feeling already that you were gonna talk about a declining business whenever you mentioned Stellantis.

Stellantis现在确实不太景气。

Well, Stellantis is not the best shape right now.

没错。

That's true.

顺便提一下，Exor不幸地也持有Stellantis相当大一部分股份。

And just for context for the listener, Exor also owns a good chunk of Stellantis unfortunately.

所以从技术上讲，我们也是这家公司的股东之一。

So technically we have a stake in the company as well.

不过我们对Exor的投资，更多是当成了法拉利的替代标的。

Although our Exor stake is certainly used as a Ferrari proxy.

像Celentus这样的品牌背景，对这种交易平台有没有什么优势呢？

Is there any advantage to being backed by a brand like Celantus for such a marketplace?

我的意思是，说不定能帮你们拿到更优先的车辆供应资源。

I mean, I could imagine it might help with having privileged access to maybe vehicle supply.

确实如此。

It does.

但另一方面，这也正是限制所在——如果你背后是Stellantis，他们自然有权决定你能卖哪些车。

But on the other hand, that's also to some extent what limited because if you are, you know, backed by Celantus, they obviously have a say in which cars you can sell.

这意味着你本质上只是他们一个零售渠道，没法像Auto1这样的双边国际平台那样自由销售任何品牌，真正形成竞争。

And that means you're more or less a retail channel for that exact brand and you're not really an actual competitor for a two sided international marketplace like Auto1, which can sell whatever brand they want.

比如雷克萨斯，如果欧洲市场对这类车需求足够大的话。

So for example, a Lexus, you know, if there's enough demand in Europe for those cars.

不过这倒是个有意思的观点，因为像Stellantis、奔驰、宝马这些背后的车企，其实都值得关注，我认为它们构成了一种风险。

But it's kind of an interesting point because the OEMs in the background, like Celantis, like Mercedes, like BMW, they are interesting, and I consider them to be a risk.

我最初研究这个商业模式和整个行业时，就担心车企会自己切入二手车市场，抢走一部分份额。

So when I first looked at this business model and the entire industry, I thought that the biggest risk might be that OEMs try to take some of that used car market share themselves.

因为Auto1的优质车源，很大一部分其实来自车企旗下的租赁公司。

Because a lot of the high quality Auto1 supply actually comes from the leasing arms of the OEMs.

那些车龄两到四年、单人拥有、保养得当的车辆，大多是从租赁合同到期后流入市场的。

So those are the two to four year old single owner, well maintained vehicles coming off lease contracts.

过去，这些车大多流入了公开的批发市场，Auto1 就能从那里采购。

And historically, a lot of these flowed into the open wholesale market where then Auto1 could buy them.

它们对商户模式特别重要，毕竟车况良好、性能稳定的车辆最适合跨境套利。

And they are disproportionately important to merchant GPU because, obviously, well maintained, predictable cars are the best fit for cross border arbitrage.

但最近出现了一个趋势：车企现在更愿意把这些到期的租赁车留在自己的认证二手车项目里。

But there was a trend that started more recently that OEMs now want to keep those off lease cars inside their own certified used car programs.

我觉得这很合理，毕竟你投入了这么多精力和资金去打造和推广一辆车，如果只赚一次钱，太可惜了。

And I think it makes sense because if you think about all the work and capital it takes to actually build and market that car, then you only benefit from it once.

真正的目标当然是让一辆车多次创造价值——等它变成二手车时再卖出去，毕竟这个市场太大了。

There's certainly, you know, the goal to benefit from that car multiple times and, you know, sell it when it's used because this is just a huge market.

再说，这可是个七千亿欧元的市场，能多留一些车在自家生态里，肯定更划算。

Again, it's a 700,000,000,000 Euro market and it makes a lot more sense to at least try and keep as many of them in the ecosystem as possible.

Auto1 的车源里，有多少来自这些租赁车队？

And how much of Auto1's car supply comes from these leasing fleets?

说实话，我也想了解，但 Auto1 从不公开这方面的数据，这也不奇怪。

Well, I wish I knew, but unsurprisingly, Auto1 doesn't disclose that.

我试着估算了一下大概的数字。

I kind of tried to get to some ballpark number.

最大的采购渠道显然是来自租赁公司的车辆，每天大约能收到2300辆。

So the biggest sourcing channel by far is vehicle from that outdoor, which brings in about 2,300 cars per working day.

算下来，一年超过五十万辆。

So call it more than half a million cars per year.

如果看总采购量84万辆，这部分大概占了六成到六成五。

And if you then look at the total number, which is 840,000 cars, that's about 60 to 65% of the entire supply.

除了C2B之外，其他来源包括经销商置换车、二手车租赁车，还有我们刚才说的那些到期租赁车。

So the non c to b supply splits into dealer trade ins, ex rental cars, and then these off lease cars that we were talking about.

这些车特别受厂商青睐，因为他们自己搞认证二手车项目时，最想要的就是这种质量最好的车。

And again, those are like the special cars that the OEMs would actually like to have and having their own certified programs because they have the highest quality.

在整个欧洲二手车市场，到期租赁车和车队退役车加起来约占所有交易的两到三成。

In the broader European used market, off lease and ex fleet cars together are roughly 20 to 30% of all used car transactions.

但因为Auto1的业务更偏向C2B，我觉得他们的比例可能低于市场平均水平。

But since Auto1 is slightly more c two b skewed, I would say that they're probably below the market average.

所以我猜，Auto1在租赁到期车辆方面的占比可能也略低于市场平均水平。

So I would guess that it's off lease exposure is probably a bit below the market average as well.

我不太确定，但估计Auto1的成交量里，有15%到20%是那些 OEM 希望回收的租赁到期车辆。

So I don't know, maybe 15 to 20% of Auto1's volume is actually this off lease supply that the OEMs wanna get back.

而且，除了总体成交量下降这个问题，这些车的质量也是最高的，正如你所说。

Well, and besides the problem of just general volume loss, those are also the highest quality cars, as you mentioned.

所以如果失去这些车，某种程度上也会损害品牌形象，毕竟那些注重品质的买家在Auto1上就更难找到合适的车了。

So losing them would also hurt the brand to some extent because, you know, people who shop quality end of the market are gonna be less likely to find cars on Auto1.

一方面，这确实没错。

On the one hand that's true.

但我认为，真正想买这种高品质车的人，通常直接就会去官方认证渠道了。

But I also believe that people who actually want to buy these high quality cars might just go to these certified programs generally.

对吧？

Right?

他们不会先去Auto Hero或者mobila.com逛，而是直接去奔驰之类的官方认证经销商，专门找自己想要的那款车。

They don't first shop at Auto Hero or mobila.com, but they just generally go to Mercedes, go to their certified dealers, and then look for exactly the cars that they want.

所以，虽然我不是这个领域的专家，但我猜那些只想买顶级二手奔驰的人，更可能直接去奔驰认证的二手车店，而不是上Auto1或者别的分类网站找。

So while I'm not an expert in this sector, I would assume that customers who want only the highest quality used Mercedes would also go to a used Mercedes certified dealership instead of looking at, you know, Auto1's or even some other classifieds.

所以，虽然把这类车留在平台上很重要，但我认为这并不会对业务造成致命影响。

So while it's generally important to keep those cars on your website, I don't think it kills the business.

还是说，这些人其实有自己信赖的经销商，因为他们每十年会买好几辆车？

Or are those the ones that actually have a dealer they trust because they buy more than just one or two cars per decade?

这是另一种可能性。

That's the other option.

所以简而言之，他们要么去找信得过的经销商，要么就直接去奔驰、宝马的认证经销商那里。

So yeah, long story short, they either go to, you know, the trusted dealer or they might go to certified Mercedes, BMW dealers.

我不觉得这会真正破坏Auto1已经建立起来的良性循环。

I don't believe that it would actually destroy the sort of flywheel that Auto1 has built.

那分类网站要是往上游拓展呢？

What about the classified sites expanding vertically?

我记得你之前跟我说过，mobile.com是德国最大的网站，我刚搜了一下，发现它的估值大约是100亿欧元，而且还没上市。

I know you said to me earlier that mobile.com is the biggest site in Germany and I just Googled it and it seems that the site is valued at about €10,000,000,000 and it's not publicly traded.

所以我不确定这种评估有多现实，但即便没有Auto1那样的基础设施和欧洲范围内的优势，它的规模却能翻一倍。

So I don't know how realistic that assessment is, but that would be twice the size of Auto1 despite being a marketplace without any of the infrastructure and pan European advantages of Auto1.

确实如此。

That's true.

我觉得这更多说明Auto1被严重低估了。

I would just take it as, you know, a sign of the undervaluation of Auto1 there.

不过，也不是。

But no.

我的意思是，这可能是另一个合理的风险点。

I mean, that's probably the other reasonable risk.

而且mobile.com不上市，这让我觉得这个风险确实更现实一些。

And the fact that mobile.com is not publicly traded makes the risk somewhat more realistic in my opinion.

因为如果他们真想取代Auto1，不仅得砸大笔钱，还得把现在这个高利润、轻资产的模式，变成重资本、低利润的生意。

Because if they ever wanted to take Auto1's place, they not only would need to invest a ton of money, they would also turn this currently beautiful, high margin, asset light business into a capital intensive, low margin business.

我不知道投资者会不会喜欢这种转变，但话说回来，既然他们是私有公司，至少不会像上市公司那样一出事股价就腰斩。

And I don't know if investors would actually like to see that, but again, if they are private, you at least don't have a 50% drawdown of the stock when that happens.

他们虽然拥有大量用户关注，但并不意味着能一夜之间拉来六万家经销商。

And the fact they have a lot of consumer eyeballs does not mean that they can just onboard 60,000 dealers from one day to the next.

这确实有帮助，但在我看来，这仍是一次重大的业务重组，我不确定他们是否有足够动力去这么做。

It certainly helps, but it, in my opinion, would still be a major restructuring of the business that I'm not quite sure if the incentive is big enough for them to go for.

不过谁知道呢？

But who knows?

他们总不能眼睁睁看着 Autoheal 越来越强，坐享 Auto1 的飞轮效应却不采取任何行动。

They can't just watch Autoheal get bigger and benefit from the Auto1 flywheel without doing anything.

看看 Auto1 的财务报表，他们的利润和现金流之间差距巨大。

So looking at Auto1's financials, there's a huge gap between the profits they show on the income statement and then their cash flows.

我想请你帮我理清一下，这里面哪些差异是关键的。

So I want to ask you if you can walk us through the differences that matter here.

这样我们才能更清楚地判断，这家公司到底是真盈利，还是像他们2025年那样，其实一年只赚了五亿欧元左右。

So we have a better picture of whether this is truly a profitable company or whether this is a company that is, you know, earning half €1,000,000,000 a year like they did in 2025.

你这么一说，听起来确实没那么健康了，说实话。

Well, if you introduce it like that, it doesn't sound that healthy anymore, I gotta say.

我之前提过，但再强调一次：别看营收。

So I mentioned it already, but never look at revenue.

这是分析这家公司，乃至整个行业时最该记住的第一点。

That's the first thing to say about this company and the industry in general.

对Auto1来说，营收几乎毫无意义。

That has pretty much no meaning at all for Auto1.

真正重要的是毛利润和利润率、销量，还有每辆车的毛利。

What matters are gross profit and margins, units sold, and GPUs, the gross profit per unit.

管理层给我们提供的核心指标是调整后的EBITDA。

And the main metric that management is giving us is adjusted EBITDA.

调整后的EBITDA确实能反映业务的整体趋势，但它也剔除了股票薪酬这类项目——而这些我们在估值时绝对不能忽略。

And adjusted EBITDA makes sense to look at the trend of the general business, But it also strips out things like stock based comp, which we certainly don't wanna do and strip out in our valuation later.

不过，股票薪酬的金额通常也没那么高。

Although, SBC generally is not that high.

我觉得大概在一千五百万到一千六百万欧元之间。

I think it's about 15 to €16,000,000.

我们确实看到，一些美国科技公司的股权激励支出要高得多。

So we certainly see much higher SBC at some of The US tech companies that we looked at.

不过，去年为什么现金流远低于营业利润或调整后EBITDA呢？

Now though, why are cash flows actually so much lower than the operating profit or EBITDA last year?

我觉得主要原因在于库存积压。

I think the main reason is the inventory buildup.

库存从七亿欧元涨到了十亿欧元。

Inventory actually went from €700,000,000 to €1,000,000,000.

这笔钱迟早会重新回流到现金流里。

So that's cash that sooner or later will flow back into cash flows.

第二个原因是他们的贷款业务。

And the second reason is their lending book.

Auto1目前正在扩大贷款规模，这意味着他们先垫付资金，但这些钱要过很多年才会慢慢回流到公司。

Auto1 is currently scaling the loan book, which means they pay out money that will only flow back into the business over time, many years into the future.

这两项都体现在经营性现金流的营运资金变动里，最终导致经营性现金流变成了负4.5亿欧元，看起来相当糟糕。

Both of those things flow through working capital inside the operating cash flow position, and ultimately make the operating cash flow minus $450,000,000 So it looks quite bad.

Auto1 还公布了一个调整后的指标，名字直白得很，叫‘剔除内部金融和库存后的经营活动净现金流’。

Auto1 also reports a metric that adjusts for those, and it has the very straightforward name of net cash from operating activities, pre captive finance and pre inventory.

确实够直白的。

Very straightforward indeed.

听起来得做不少调整，数字才能好看起来。

It sounds like there's a lot of adjusting that needs to be done to make the numbers positive.

现在还谈不上是台印钞机。

Well, this is not yet a cash flow machine.

没错。

That's true.

不过我觉得，他们的 EBITDA 和净利润已经出现相当明显的拐点了。

But I think there has been a quite impressive inflection in EBITDA and net income levels as well.

再说一遍，眼下现金流量表上看到的大部分都是营运资金的变动。

And again, I mean, a lot of what we see on the cash flow statement right now is working capital.

所以我相信，未来几个季度乃至几年里，情况会慢慢好转。

So I do think this will change in the next couple of quarters and years.

有道理。

It makes sense.

如果这家公司能保持现在的增长势头，那几年后股价大幅上涨也就不足为奇了。

And if this is a company that can keep inflecting the way it is now, I mean, wouldn't be a surprise if the stock is much higher in a couple of years.

不过，关键问题在于，这个

You know, the big question is, is in

如果

the if.

那我们来

So how about we

聊聊估值吧？

talk about valuation now?

从这些数字来看，你觉得这家公司现在该怎么估值？

What do the numbers tell you about how to value this company today?

这家公司确实挺难估值的。

This has certainly been a tough one to value.

我觉得各种可能的结果范围还是太大了，关键就看公司未来一两年会往哪个方向走。

I just felt that the range of outcomes still seems incredibly wide and it really just depends on the direction the company takes within the next year or two.

所以我们之前也提到过，最核心的还是要看单位增长、GPU的前景，还有商户端和零售端的情况，以及EBITDA利润率会是什么样。

So as we kind of figured out, the most important thing to figure out is unit growth, what GPUs will look like, and on the merchant side and retail side, and then what the EBITDA margin will look like.

关于商户端的单位增长，我预计年均增速会略高于10%，过去几年的实际数据平均在15%左右，但我还是想保守一点，毕竟随着时间推移，增长肯定会越来越难，尤其是商户业务本身已经比较成熟了。

So on the merchant unit growth side, I expect average annual growth of just over 10%, and the actuals over the past few years have averaged about 15%, but I do wanna be conservative and factor in that growth will get obviously more difficult over time, especially since the merchant side of the business is the more mature part of it.

管理层的目标是，像我们之前讨论的那样，把市场份额从3%提升到10%，这恐怕还得再花五年左右，保持中个位数的增长才行。

So then management wants to get from, as we've discussed earlier, 3% to 10% market share, which would certainly take another half decade of mid teens growth.

虽然我觉得这个目标并非不可能，但现实是，这个市场一直很分散，而且已经这样很久了。

And while I do see that as, let's say, possible, part of the truth is that this is a fragmented market that has been so for a while.

我当然可以描绘一个看涨的情景：这是一家很棒的公司，增长飞轮才刚刚开始转动，长期来看，市场份额会逐步提升。

So I can certainly paint a bull case in which, you know, this is a fantastic company with a flywheel just starting to spin, and over time, you will gain market share.

但不可否认的是，过去二三十年里，从来没有任何一家公司能从这么低的份额——比如我们现在只有3%——做到更大的占比。

But part of the truth is that over the last twenty or thirty years, there just has been no company that got more market share than what we currently see with only 3%.

所以很大一部分希望可能落在零售端，毕竟这块还很年轻。

So a big part will probably be the retail side, which is much younger.

所以我预计它自然会增长得更快。

So I expect it to grow faster naturally.

过去几年，它的平均增长率在50%到60%之间。

And in the past years, it has grown at an average of 50 to 60%.

我觉得，如果未来五年能保持20%以上的增长，应该是可以实现的。

So I believe that if I would assume 20% plus growth over the next five years, that should be possible.

接下来另一个关键点，还是要看公司两个业务板块的GPU增长情况。

And then the next big thing to figure out is, again, GPU growth in both parts of the business.

这种情况下，历史数据参考价值有限，因为疫情期间二手车价格出现过异常飙升。

In this case, historic figures make just a little sense to use because there was this huge bubble in used car prices during the pandemic years.

这其实是我之前想问你的一个问题。

So that's one thing I wanted to ask you about earlier.

Auto1的业务有多大的周期性？二手车价格的影响到底有多大？

How cyclical is Auto1's business and how big of a factor are used car prices generally?

从你今天说的来看，我觉得他们受的影响应该不大，毕竟大部分库存都能在三十天内周转出去。

You know, from everything you said today, guess they're somewhat shielded because they turn the vast majority of their inventory in a matter of about thirty days.

所以在三十天内，二手车价格不会有太大波动，我估计不会，但我还是好奇这具体是怎么运作的。

So there isn't major volatility in used car prices in the thirty day span, I wouldn't expect, but still I'm curious how that works.

这个说法很准确。

That's pretty accurate.

理论上，Auto1 承担了价格波动的风险，因为车辆是记在他们资产负债表上的。

I mean, in theory, Auto1 takes price volatility risk since they have the cause on their balance sheet.

但历史上，这并没有造成太大波动。

But historically that hasn't caused major swings.

只要库存能像你说的那样快速周转，我觉得就不该有太大问题。

And I think it shouldn't as long as inventory keeps turning quickly, as you said.

而且我也觉得，短期内不太可能再出现像 2022 和 2023 年那样极端的价格波动，这也是为什么我基本完全忽略了过去几年的 GPU 数据，转而假设两个渠道的 GPU 增长都维持在略高于通胀的低个位数到中个位数水平。

And I also don't expect to see similarly extreme swings in used car prices again anytime soon compared to what we have seen in 2022 and 2023, which is also why I basically completely ignore the GPUs over last years and just assume low to mid single digit GPU growth more or less in line with inflation throughout both channels.

也就是零售和批发渠道。

So retail and the wholesale channel.

我觉得，这大概是目前最现实的预估了。

And I would say that, you know, that's probably the most realistic assumption.

也许有点保守，但我还是会这么选。

Maybe conservative, but that's what I would go with.

接下来你就只剩下一个假设要定了，就是EBITDA利润率。

And then you're only left with an assumption to make for the EBITDA margin.

这个假设在模型里可担着大任呢。

And this one certainly does some heavy lifting in the model.

近几年，利润率确实出现了明显转折。

Again, we have seen a sharp inflection in the margin in recent years.

2023年的时候，毛利率是负6%，注意，我说的是毛利率。

So in 2023, it was a negative 6%, measured by gross profit, by the way.

2024年就转正了，到了11%。

In 2024, it was a positive 11.

去年更是涨到了21%。

Then last year, it was 21%.

我预计每年大概提升两个百分点，到2030年，我的基准情景里会达到31%。

And I model roughly a two percentage points increase per year, reaching 31% by 2030 in my base case.

所以这里的思路是，他们能把更大比例的每欧元毛利转化为EBITDA。

So the idea here is that they, you know, scale a larger share of each gross profit euro to up to EBITDA.

简而言之，如果我们用通常的数字——也就是这个业务的退出倍数，我觉得20倍是合理的，再留出20%的安全边际，折现率设为8%。

And then long story short, if we apply our usual numbers, which is, you know, an exit multiple for this business, I think it's reasonable to go with about 20, a marginal safety of 20%, then an 8% discount rate.

如果按这些假设计算，每股公允价值大约是33欧元，预期年回报率在15%左右。

If we do all of that, the fair value comes out to about €33 per share, which would be an expected annual return of about 15%.

这听起来不错。

That sounds pretty good.

那乐观和悲观情景呢？

And how about the bull and bear cases?

在我的乐观情景下，股价甚至会超过CEO和CFO拿到奖金所需的股价，这还没算上我那个相对保守的安全边际。

In my bull case, the stock would actually exceed the share price that the CEO and CFO would need to get their bonus payments, at least before I apply my, you know, somewhat conservative margin of safety.

我就不细说了，有兴趣的人可以去我们的免费通讯里下载模型，自己动手调整参数。

And I won't go into the details here because I think everyone who's interested in the models can download them in our free newsletter and, you know, play with the numbers themselves.

链接一如既往会在节目笔记里。

And the link will be in the show notes as always.

简单说，单位销量增长，GPU销量也略高，这些自然都会带动利润率上升。

Just in short, higher unit growth, slightly higher GPU growth, and all of that will obviously also result in a higher margin as well.

所以这其实没什么意外的。

So not a huge surprise there.

而在悲观情景下，情况正好相反，不过要提醒一点：如果利润率长期没有明显改善，股价其实还有不小的下行空间。

And then in the bear case, the same thing but in the other direction with a caveat that it shows that there's quite some downside potential when the margins shouldn't materially improve over time.

我第一次建模的时候，对模型给出的股价低到什么程度还挺惊讶的。

Actually, the first time I modeled this, I was surprised by how low the price is supposed to be.

那时候股价还不到10欧元。

We are sub €10 at that point.

但你要是看看股价走势，其实两三年前，这只股票确实一度跌到10欧元以下。

But then if you look at the stock chart, this is a stock that actually traded way below €10 just two or three years ago.

所以我还是觉得这个情景有现实基础，虽然它是个非常极端的悲观假设——完全没增长，利润率也卡在当前水平，这在实际中几乎不可能，毕竟资本和营运资金总会有变动。

So I do believe it's realistic, although it's obviously a quite severe bear case in which you basically have no growth at all and the margins are staying at this level, which just because of the capital or working capital changes is quite unlikely.

总的来说，这类公司我称之为‘终点分析型’，它们还太年轻，离真正释放全部利润率潜力还差得远，所以做预测时感觉多少有点主观。

So generally, this is one of the, what I call, destination analysis companies, meaning they are young and so far away from showing their full margin potential that a modeling exercise feels quite arbitrary.

对我个人来说，更重要的是我是否在质的层面喜欢这家公司，以及量化层面是否给我提供了足够的安全边际。

So what matters more to me personally is whether I like the company on a qualitative level and whether I feel that the quantitative side gives me at least enough of a margin of safety.

但在这个案例里，我对后一点其实不太确定。

And I'm actually not quite sure about the latter in this case.

我们平时不太关注小市值公司。

We don't look at a ton of small caps.

所以一旦我们看，我很庆幸你推荐的是德国公司，这样我们可以借助你对本地市场的了解。

So when we do, I am very glad that they're the German ones that you pitched because we can use your local insights.

说实话，我觉得这家公司估值不到50亿欧元，前景相当不错。

And I think it all sounds pretty promising honestly, for this to be a company with a below 5,000,000,000 Euro valuation.

我能很清楚地看到，它的估值有可能大幅飙升。

It is easy for me to see how the valuation could explode.

但话说回来，看看财务数据，这家公司过去很长时间一直亏钱。

But, you know, but again, when I look at the financials, this is a company that lost a lot of money for a long time.

虽然过去三年它转为盈利，但即使在这期间，盈利状况也波动很大。

And while it has become profitable in the last three years, even within that period, there's still been big swings of profitability.

所以这生意明显还很年轻，甚至可以说才刚起步，而且资产负债表上的债务也不少。

So the business definitely seems very young, you know, very green, and there's also a decent bit of debt on the balance sheet here actually too.

这个嘛，我得听你的判断了。

I don't know, would have to defer to your judgment here.

不管怎么说，就目前的市值和不确定性来看，我们在投资组合里只会配很小一部分，但说到底，我还是得靠你的信心来决定。

I mean, no matter what, on the market cap and I think the level of uncertainty, it would be a small position in our portfolio, but really I would be borrowing your conviction here.

所以这事你来定吧。

So it's your call on this one.

挺有意思，你们居然把一家五百亿欧元的公司当成小盘股。

That's kind of funny that a 5,000,000,000 Euro company for you is considered a small cap.

我还得提一句，大概一周后，Auto1会举办首次资本市场日，我们第一次能拿到各业务板块的详细财务数据。

I should also say that in about a week, there will be the first ever Capital Markets Day of Auto1, and we are supposed to get, for the first time, the breakout segment economics.

包括批发、零售，还有金融科技这部分。

So we're talking wholesale, retail, and also the fintech part of the business.

那肯定会很有意思。

And that would certainly be interesting.

我建议咱们先等等看，我会为下一期通讯写一份更新。

And I would suggest that we wait until then, and I will type up an update for the following newsletter.

实际上，当你听到这期节目时，资本市场日已经结束了，我已经写好了更新，这周日就会发在通讯里。

And actually, when you will listen to this episode, the Capital Markets Day is already done, and I will have typed up an update, and we'll publish it this Sunday in the newsletter.

真厉害。

Wow.

刚才咱们在现实和未来之间来回切换了一下，希望大家都跟上了。

And there was actually some back and forth between the present and the future, and I hope everyone could follow.

好了，如果你没什么要补充的，也没别的想说的，那今天就到这里吧。

And with that, except for if you have anything to say, any last words for today, I would say we call it a day.

今天最后一期，我用尼克·斯利普的一句话收尾：最好的回报，往往来自与优秀的管理者同行，而不是超越他们。

And I will end today's episode with a quote by Nick Sleep, and he said, the best returns often come from aligning with great managers, not from beating them.

考虑到这里的激励机制，我相信双方的目标确实是一致的，至少我会继续关注这家公司接下来几个季度的表现。

Given the incentive structure here, I do believe that alignment is certainly there, and I'm at least keen to follow the company in the next couple of quarters.

那就这样，祝你一切顺利，咱们下次见。

With that said, have a good one, see you next time.

感谢收听《投资者播客》。

Thanks for listening to TIP.

请在您常用的播客平台关注《投资者播客》，并访问 theinvestorspodcast.com 获取节目笔记和学习资源。

Follow The Investor's Podcast on your favorite podcast app, and visit the investorspodcast.com for show notes and educational resources.

本播客仅供信息和娱乐用途，不构成财务、投资、税务或法律建议。

This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not provide financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.

内容为通用性质，未考虑您的个人目标、财务状况或需求。

The content is impersonal and does not consider your objectives, financial situation, or needs.

投资有风险，包括可能损失本金，过往表现不预示未来结果。

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

听众在做出任何财务决策前，应自行研究并咨询合格专业人士。

Listeners should do their own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

本节目中的任何内容均不构成买卖任何证券或金融产品的推荐或要约。

Nothing on this show is a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or other financial product.

主持人、嘉宾以及投资者播客网络可能持有节目中讨论的证券，并可能随时在未通知的情况下调整持仓。

Hosts, guests, and The Investors Podcast Network may hold positions in securities discussed and may change those positions at any time without notice.

提到任何第三方产品、服务或广告商，并不表示我们认可，The Investor's Podcast Network 也不对其声明负责。

References to any third party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor's Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them.

版权属于 The Investor's Podcast Network。

Copyright by The Investor's Podcast Network.

保留所有权利。

All rights reserved.