TIP842：Comfort Systems USA (FIX)：我们错过的五倍股，与 Kyle Grieve 和 Shawn O'Malley

因为你刚才提到的，对暖通空调技术人员的需求已经很明显了。

Because like you just mentioned here, writings on the wall for the need for more and more HVAC technicians.

但如果你不去想暖通空调技术人员，或者他们未来几年会怎么被使用，那你很可能根本就不会想到这个问题。

But if you're not thinking about HVAC technicians or how they're going to be utilized over the next few years, well then chances are you just won't even think about it.

所以这其实又回到了能力圈的问题。

So it kind of just kind of goes to a circle of competence thing.

但我能看出来，你第一次看这家公司的时候，就已经深入思考过业务中已经包含的乐观预期。

But I can really see how you've already thought a lot about the optimism that was already baked into the business when you first looked at it.

当一家公司的CEO说他们对未来感到乐观时，这其实没什么意义，因为实际上，哪个CEO会向股东承认他们对未来感到悲观呢？

When a business's CEO says they're optimistic about the future, it really doesn't mean very much simply because in reality, what CEO out there would admit to shareholders that they're pessimistic about the future.

你知道，也许巴菲特会这么做。

You know, maybe Buffett would do that.

但大多数CEO必须非常谨慎地措辞，因为他们不想让市场不安。

But most CEOs have to watch the word very carefully because they don't wanna upset the market.

但另一方面，这也让你对CEO们的乐观言论变得麻木，因为你觉得你不得不对他们说的话持保留态度。

But on the other side of thing, it kind of dulls you as well to how CEOs who are being bullish because you feel like you kind of have to take what they're gonna say with a grain of salt.

不是说Comfort Systems的管理层不可信，只是我一般看管理层就是这么个看法。

Not to say that Comfort Systems management is untrustworthy by any means, but just a general view of how I tend to look at management.

如果你持有一家公司好几年，你就会慢慢习惯他们说话的方式，也越来越能听出他们话里的弦外之音。

If you've owned businesses for multiple years, you tend to get kind of accustomed to how they speak and how good you become at reading maybe between the lines a little bit.

这时候你就有了一个真正的优势，因为新投资者或者第一次看这家公司的人，他们对管理层说话的方式不会有同样的感觉。

This is when you kind of get that really, really good edge that you can use because new investors or investors that are maybe just looking at the business for the first time, they just won't have the same feel for how the management speaks.

而且，如果管理层经常故意压低预期，或者过于乐观，这些都需要花很长时间才能深入了解。

And you know, if management regularly sandbags or if they're overly optimistic, these things take a lot of time to understand at a deeper level.

这种直觉，只有在你持有这家公司一段时间之后才能真正培养出来。

And you kind of only really developed that feel once you own the business for a certain period of time.

我觉得Comfort Systems的管理团队确实非常优秀。

I would say Comfort Systems really does have a high class management team.

我的意思是，他们对未来机会表现得那么保守，这本身就限制了我自己的乐观预期。而那些倾向于保守低估自己前景的公司，实际上可能比那些必须向投资者推销自己商业模式有多好的公司处于更有利的位置。

I mean, fact that they were so reserved about the opportunities ahead of them probably limited my own optimism and businesses that tend to conservatively underestimate their prospects are actually probably in a stronger position than the companies that have to sell investors on just how great their business model is.

这就是那种，如果你知道自己很好或者处于有利位置，数字最终会证明一切的事情。

And it's one of those things where if you know you're good or in a good position, you know the numbers will eventually show that.

所以你愿意让数字替你说话。

So you're happy to let the numbers do the talking for you.

这确实更像是Comfort Systems的风格。

And that's definitely more of Comfort Systems style.

所以我觉得在我最初的投资论点里，我可能应该多花点时间在数据中心和芯片制造这部分业务上，多想想那能带来多大的影响。

And so I think in my initial thesis, I probably should have spent more time on the data center and chip manufacturing part of the business and thinking about just how impactful that could be.

但现在我们重新审视这个问题，我们确实有更多时间来提供一个新的视角。

But now that we're revisiting it, we do have some more time to provide a fresh perspective on the topic.

如果我们看看公司最新的演示文稿，管理层已经讨论了在德克萨斯州、北卡罗来纳州、印第安纳州等州的这个领域的大型项目预订。

So if we look at the company's latest presentation, management has discussed large project bookings in this segment in in states like Texas, North Carolina, Indiana.

所以数据中心的故事在美国各地依然非常活跃。

So the data center story is very much alive and well across The US.

我甚至亲眼目睹了数据中心的繁荣，因为我住在弗吉尼亚州，那里目前真的是美国的数据中心之都。

And I've even seen the boom in data centers firsthand living in Virginia, which is really currently the the data center capital of The US.

所以再次说明，作为投资者，有些东西可能就在你眼前，但你仍然可能错过它，如果你像我一样的话。

So again, it does show just how much something can be right in front of your face as an investor and you can still miss it if you're anything like me.

但德州现在看起来真的成了未来的数据中心枢纽。

But Texas now looks like really the data center hub of the future.

预计到2030年，德州将超越弗吉尼亚，据报道，德州目前大约五分之一的能源容量都用于支持数据中心。

It is forecasted to overtake Virginia by 2030, with Texas reportedly using about a fifth of its energy capacity to support data centers today.

所以康福特系统公司未来特别把德州作为增长方向，也就不足为奇了。

So it's not a surprise that Comfort Systems is therefore focusing on Texas in particular as a growth avenue in the future.

在芯片制造方面，德州已经是美国芯片出口的领头羊，而且还有数十亿美元的政府资金和私募股权正在投入德州的这个行业。

Then in terms of chip manufacturing, Texas already leads The US in chip exports and there are billions of dollars of more government funding in private equity that are being invested in this industry in Texas.

所以芯片制造看起来短期内不会放缓，而且这和更广泛的AI超级周期紧密相关。

So it doesn't look like chip manufacturing is is slowing down anytime soon and that pairs closely with this AI super cycle more broadly.

换句话说，我认为德州对康福特系统公司未来的业务非常重要。

And so in other words, I think Texas is very important to the future of Comfort Systems business.

这意味着，今天任何关注康福特系统公司的投资者，我觉得都需要密切关注那里的地方监管环境，以及围绕数据中心的态度，不仅是在美国，尤其是在德州。

And that means that any investors looking at Comfort Systems today, I think you'd wanna pay close attention to the local regulatory environment there and the sentiment around data centers, not just in The US but in Texas in particular.

因为我们在很多地方都看到，数据中心建设及其对电网的影响，正遭到大量抗议。

Because we've seen in many places data center construction and the impact on the energy grid is very much being protested.

而且我猜这会在德克萨斯州变成一个越来越有争议的问题，这可能会影响到Comfort Systems的业务。

And I suspect it will become an increasingly controversial issue in the state of Texas, which could ripple across to affect Comfort Systems businesses.

所以我觉得，正是这种对更有利监管环境的追求，才让数据中心建设从弗吉尼亚转移到了德克萨斯。

So I think this search for more favorable regulatory stances is what has led data center construction out of Virginia to Texas.

但话说回来，也不能保证德克萨斯会一直对新建数据中心这么友好。

But again, it's not guaranteed indefinitely that Texas will always be so friendly to new data center build outs.

对，这些都是很好的观点。

Yeah, these are all great points.

而且我觉得这确实表明Comfort Systems背后有实实在在的推动力，但你知道，可能还要过几年情况才会稳定下来。

And I think it really shows us that there are some real legs behind the tailwinds that Comfort Systems has, but you know, it might be a few years before things begin to level off.

说实话，我觉得就像我们今天明确说的，我们就是不知道那会是什么时候。

To be honest, I think as we made very clear today, we just don't know when that's going to happen.

所以根据我做的研究，真的很难搞清楚数据中心或芯片制造与Comfort Systems的产品供应之间有什么关联，显然，他们提供的是机电方面的产品。

So from what I was able to research, it's really tough to figure out what kind of correlations there are between data centers or chip manufacturing, as well as the Comfort Systems product offerings that they offer, obviously, the mechanical and electrical segments.

很明显，它们之间确实存在某种关联，但我觉得几乎不可能确定这种关联到底是什么，以及我们怎么才能在投资决策中合理利用这一点。

It's quite obvious that there is some sort of correlation, but I think it's nearly impossible to determine exactly what that correlation is and how we would actually use that in a context that makes sense for an investing purpose.

从康福特系统公司的披露中我们可以看出，他们愿意展望大约一年的时间。

What we can tell from Comfort Systems disclosures is that they're willing to look out about a year or so.

所以他们的积压订单披露代表了未来六到十二个月预期的收入，但实际上可能低估了真实数字，因为他们还有一些短期项目在未来一年内，但并未包含在积压订单中。

So their backlog disclosure represents revenue that's expected over the next six to twelve months, but it probably actually underestimates the real number because they also have some shorter term projects inside of the next, say, year that are not included in the backlog.

而且由于积压订单持续增加，这显然是一个好迹象，表明情况正在好转。

And since the backlogs continue to swell, obviously that's a good signal that things are getting better.

对。

Right.

正如我们所说，管理层对于他们提供的指引并不特别激进。

And as we said, management is not crazy aggressive about the guidance that it tends to provide.

但他们最近确实提到，2026年剩余时间的情况可能会继续向好。

But they did recently note that things are likely to continue going well for the remainder of of 2026.

我绝对相信他们说的。

I I definitely believe them when they say that.

所以这并不能告诉我们积压订单最终会达到什么水平，但我认为这是一个相当好的信号，表明至少能维持现状，最好的情况下可能会继续大幅增长。

So this doesn't tell us where the backlog will necessarily end up, but I do think it's a pretty good signal that it will be at worst sustained and at best could continue to increase significantly.

对。

Right.

而且因为我们在内在价值投资组合里持有几家超大规模数据中心公司，我觉得我们对即将到来的人工智能建设有一些了解，肖恩你刚才也提到了一点。

And since we own a few hyperscalers in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, I think we do have some insights into the coming AI build out that Shawn you kind of already mentioned here.

比如说，我们投资的一家公司，Alphabet，预计2026年的资本支出大约在2000亿美元左右。而且管理层已经表示，这个数字在2027年可能会增加。

So, know, for instance, one of our companies, Alphabet, guided its CapEx for 2026 to be in the range of about $200,000,000,000 And management has actually stated that that number is probably going to increase in 2027.

我们现在真的没法知道Alphabet是不是Comfort Systems的客户。

Now we really have no way of knowing whether Alphabet is even a customer of Comfort Systems.

但如果我们把Alphabet和那些超大规模数据中心公司作为数据中心和芯片支出的一个参考，我觉得很明显，未来几年支出很可能会继续增加。

But if we use Alphabet and the hyperscalers as kind of proxies for data centers and chip spending, I think it's really obvious that spending is likely to continue to increase over the next few years.

所以我认为Comfort Systems继续从这些趋势中受益的可能性很大。

So I would say the chances are pretty good that Comfort Systems will continue to benefit from these trends.

但再说回来，我们还是很难知道这些趋势会持续多久。

But again, as we keep coming back, it's just hard to know how long these trends are going to last.

嗯，你提到这个真巧，因为我今天早些时候正好读到，美国证券交易委员会已经让数据中心更容易通过出售资产支持证券来筹集资金了。

Well, funny you mentioned that because I was actually just reading earlier today about how the SEC has made it easier for data centers to now sell asset backed securities to raise financing.

基本上，美国证券交易委员会已经表示，数据中心证券化的一大类交易不需要像类似交易通常要求的那样，内置披露和投资者保护措施，比如风险留存，也就是要求发行资产支持证券的公司保留部分债务，以便更好地与投资者的利益保持一致。

So basically, the Securities and Exchange Commission has said that a major subset of data center securitizations don't need to have disclosures and investor protections baked in to what similar deals would typically require, such as risk retention, which is a requirement that companies issuing asset backed securities retain some of the debt to better align their interests with investors.

也就是说，你必须得有点切身利益在里面。

Meaning you have to have some skin in the game.

所以，换句话说，监管正在放松，以便让更多的资金流入数据中心建设。

And so regulations are, in other words, loosening up to allow for even more money to flow into data center construction.

对我来说，这感觉像是泡沫的迹象，但你也看到像黑石、阿波罗、布鲁克菲尔德，甚至贝莱德这样的私人市场巨头，承诺与英伟达一起向数据中心基础设施投资高达5000亿美元。

And to me, that feels like a sign of of a bubble, but you've also got private market giants like Blackstone, Apollo, Brookfield, and even BlackRock promising to invest up to $500,000,000,000 into data center infrastructure alongside Nvidia.

这些数字真是让人难以置信。

And so these are mind boggling numbers.

一个人怎么能理解5000亿美元的支出呢？

How how does one even fathom $500,000,000,000 in spending?

所以即使我们看到了过去一年发生的一切，我还是很难相信这笔支出是真实的，而且所有这一切都会按计划实现。

So even with everything we've seen in the last year, it's just hard for me to process that this spending is real and that all of it will will manifest as as currently planned.

但到目前为止，我对AI支出的怀疑直觉真的错得不能再错了。

But thus far, my skeptical impulse on AI spending really could not have proven more wrong.

所以我想说，我的话你听听就好，别太当真。

So I would say take what I say with a grain of salt.

对。

Yeah.

我是说，确实是这样。

I mean, that's right.

但说实话，肖恩，我看过不少泡沫，其中一个常见的共同点就是，政府、领导人或者手握大量资本的人，会让获取资本变得更容易，从而买更多那种资产，不管是郁金香球茎还是别的什么。

But to be honest, Shawn, I mean, I've looked at quite a few bubbles in the past and one of the more commonalities that you'll find in that is the ability of government or leaders or people with lots of capital to make the access to capital even easier to buy more of whatever the asset is, whether that's, you know, tulip bulbs or whatever.

所以，你知道，SEC让借钱买这些东西变得更容易，基本上是为了推动数据中心和芯片制造的扩张，我觉得这真的挺让人担忧的。

So, you know, the fact that the SEC is making it easier and easier to get debt to buy things to basically help with this data center and chip manufacturing rollout, I would say that's honestly pretty concerning.

而且这是我会非常密切关注的事情，因为事实是，哪里能借到便宜的钱，钱就会流向那些行业。

And it's something that I would pay very, very close attention to because the fact is where people can find cheap money, money is going to go into those sectors.

显然，SEC和美国政府也清楚这一点。

And obviously the SEC and the US government knows that.

所以这可能就是他们这么做的原因，他们知道自己想发展这个行业。

So that's probably why they're doing this is that they know that they want to grow the sector.

但问题是，我们真的不太清楚这个行业最终能不能带来可观的回报。

But the problem is we just don't really know if this sector is actually going to offer an attractive return.

所以他们这么做，我还是挺担心的。

So the fact that they're doing that, like again, I'm pretty concerned.

确实。

Definitely.

确实说得好。

Definitely well said.

那我们换个话题吧，来聊聊Comfort有没有什么竞争优势。很明显，Comfort Systems正乘着一股强劲的顺风，这股风带动了整个行业，而这家公司正好身处其中。

How about we shift here though and discuss whether Comfort has any competitive advantages and clearly Comfort Systems is riding a big tailwind that is lifting entire industries that the company is is exposed to.

理论上，这应该会吸引更多竞争者，我也觉得这迟早会发生。

So in theory, that should attract more competition and I do think that it inevitably will.

但与此同时，我们已经讨论过其他公司的利润率正在大幅上升，这说明需求增长的速度足以抵消任何新的竞争压力。

But in the meantime, we've already discussed other companies' profit margins are very much trending up into the right and that implies that demand is growing fast enough to more than offset any new competitive pressures.

而且，既然利润率一直在扩大，我们就知道Comfort Systems并不是那种为了短期冲营收，不惜亏本去抢任何项目的公司。

And because profit margins have been expanding, we know that this is not a case where Comfort Systems is out there just trying to bid on any project they can find, even if it comes at a loss, just to pump up their revenue figures in the short term.

这种情况在管理不善的房地产和承包公司中确实时有发生。

And that is something you do sometimes see in poorly run real estate and and contracting companies.

你基本上可以签下一堆项目，让收入飙升，这可能会让一些投资者更高兴，或者为高管解锁奖金。

And you can basically sign a bunch of projects that might make your revenue jump and that might make some investors happier or unlock bonuses for executives.

但如果你为这些交易付出了过高的代价，公司实际上会随着收入的增加而变得不那么盈利。

But if you pay too high of a price for those deals, the company actually becomes less profitable over time even as revenue is increasing.

再说一次，我们在这里看到的并不是这种情况，而且更妙的是，电气承包业务比其他一些承包服务更依赖于长期合同。

And again, that's not what we're seeing here and to make things even better, the electrical contracting business is very much tied to having more longer term contracts than some other forms of contracting services.

所以基本上，他们在电气领域每多赚的一美元，可以说比其他业务部门的价值更高，因为那些现金流至少在纸面上，合同上更有可能持续更长时间。

So basically every incremental dollar they're earning in this electrical segment is arguably worth more than some of their other business segments because those cash flows are on paper at least contractually more likely to continue for longer.

它们更锁定。

They're more locked in.

是的，肖恩。

Yeah, Shawn.

我想就你关于项目和投标过程的观点补充一点。

And I'll just comment there on your point about projects and bidding process.

我有一家公司，这里就不点名了，但它是做房屋建筑行业的。

I have a business that I won't mention by name here, but it's involved in the housing construction industry.

不幸的是，他们基本上不得不转向接一些利润率较低的项目，只是为了维持收入数字，避免收入大幅下滑。

And they've unfortunately basically had to pivot somewhat to having to take on some of these lower margin projects just so that they can maintain their revenue numbers and not have this giant decline in revenue.

而且不幸的是，正因为如此，他们的利润率也下降了。

And unfortunately, because of that, their margins have also come down.

所以这家公司的质量，跟Comfort Systems完全没法比。

So this is a business that's, would say, not even close to the same amount of quality as Comfort Systems.

但你知道，重点是，一旦竞标环境发生变化，找到供应商来投标变得越来越难，他们实际上可以提高项目价格，从而提高利润率。

But you know, the point being that once the dynamics of bidding change and it becomes harder and harder to actually find suppliers to do the bids, they can actually increase the price of those of their projects, which increases margins.

所以这其实是在绕圈子说，当你观察那些处于竞争性投标过程中的企业时，你必须考虑这些动态，因为有时候真的非常危险。

So it's just kind of a roundabout way of saying, you know, when you're looking at businesses that are in kind of a competitive bidding process, you do have to take those dynamics into account because it can sometimes be really, really dangerous.

显然，如果需求低，对这些企业来说往往更糟。

Obviously, if demand is low, it tends to be worse for those businesses.

但当需求高的时候，就像现在这样，显然Comfort Systems也受益于此，这真的是非常好的一件事，有助于提高利润率。

But when demand is high like it is right now and obviously like Comfort Systems is exposed to, it's a really, really good thing which helps boost margins.

不过咱们还是回到竞争优势这个话题上来。

But getting back to kind of competitive advantages here.

所以每当我分析一家公司的竞争优势时，我喜欢看这些优势是在扩大还是在缩小。

So whenever I look at a business's competitive advantages, I like to look at whether they are widening or shrinking.

你在最初的投资介绍中提到，你觉得康福特系统公司在护城河方面并不是最强的企业。

So you brought up in your initial pitch that you thought Comfort Systems wasn't necessarily the strongest business in terms of having a moat.

当时我同意你的看法，现在也依然同意。

And I agree with you then actually, and I still do.

但你指出的一个竞争优势是，他们高度专业化，并且拥有这种地理上的优势，这让他们能牢牢抓住现有客户。

But the one competitive advantage that you highlighted was that they are highly specialized and they have this kind of geographic advantage that helps them stay sticky with their current customer base.

另外，我认为康福特系统还有一个优势，就是他们有能力承接越来越大的项目。

Now, additional advantage that I think Comfort Systems has is developing the ability to work on just larger and larger projects.

到2025年底，他们累计合同价值大约有240亿美元，分布在近8500个项目上。

So at the end of twenty twenty five, they had about $24,000,000,000 in aggregate contract value spread across nearly 8,500 projects.

其中有一个项目据说价值约4.7亿美元，规模真是相当大。

And one project was reportedly worth about $470,000,000 So just massive in scale.

如果你从当地甚至区域竞争对手的角度来看，他们没有康福特系统那样的资产负债表，就根本不可能竞标那么大规模的项目。

Now, if you're looking at that from the point of view of let's say a local or even a regional competitor, if they don't have a balance sheet that Comfort Systems has, they're just not going to be able to bid on a project anywhere close to that size.

所以如果我们用汉密尔顿·赫尔默的框架，我会认为这算是一种稀缺资源，因为竞争对手无法获得同样的资产负债表。

So if we use Hamilton Helmer's framework, I would consider this to be kind of a corner resource since competitors don't have access to the same balance sheet.

他们根本无法参与那些康福特系统可以轻松承接的合同。

They simply cannot participate in those same contracts that Comfort Systems can easily pursue.

这确实正在成为他们越来越强大的优势，因为他们开始承接越来越大的项目，而且这些项目的财务规模也在增长。

This is for sure becoming a a much more powerful advantage for them as they begin working on larger and larger projects and as the financial scale of those projects grows.

我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

作为投资者，我觉得有一个方面没有得到足够的关注，那就是作为投资研究员，持续提升自己有多难。

One part of being an investor that I don't think gets enough attention is how hard it can be to continue to improve as an investment researcher.

对我自己来说，我经常发现，当我与行业专家或基金经理进行了一次精彩的对话后，脑子里满是想法。

And for myself, I often find that when I finish a great conversation with some industry expert or fund manager, my head is full of ideas.

但当我坐下来写下来的时候，一半的想法已经消失了。

But by the time I sit down to write it all up, half of them are already gone.

所以我一直在用Plaud Note Pro。

That's why I've been using Plaud Note Pro.

这个小设备贴在手机背面，能录下对话，然后给我一份干净、可搜索的摘要。

It's a small device that sticks to the back of my phone and captures the conversation and hands me back a clean searchable recap.

关键点、后续事项、我通常想跟进的内容，它全都整理好了。

And so the key points, the follow ups, the things I usually want to act on, it has all of that.

这样我就能专心待在房间里，而不是忙着记那些之后根本看不懂的笔记。

And that allows me to stay present in the room instead of scribbling notes that I won't be able to read back later.

而且我的字迹出了名的难看。

And I notoriously have very bad handwriting.

所以它彻底改变了我准备和跟进投资者的方式。

And so it's changed how I prep and how I follow-up with investors.

它也是为那些认真对待对话的人设计的。

It's also built for people who take conversations seriously.

企业级安全保障。

Enterprise grade security.

所以如果你在录和客户或行业联系人的通话，那也完全没问题。

So if you're recording calls with clients or industry contacts, that's covered too.

所以如果你经常开会、打电话、做采访，那不妨看看这个。

So if you live in meetings, calls, and interviews, well, give it a look.

去 plaud.ai/wsb，用优惠码 WSB 享受九折优惠。

Go to plaud.ai/wsb and use code WSB for 10% off.

网址是 plaud.ai/wsb，优惠码是 WSB。

That's plaud.ai/wsb, code WSB.

还有，录对话前一定要征得对方同意。

And always get consent before you record a conversation.

对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

而 Plus500 期货是一个很好的起点。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场变化很快，通过Plus500，你可以交易石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，市场总有新动向。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台操作非常简单，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

只需100美元就能开始，马上参与其中。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的了？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，只需几次点击就能完成交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果还没准备好，还可以用免费模拟账户练习。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易比以往任何时候都更容易上手。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去plus500.com看看吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，让交易更上一层楼。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

有人说，你的业务每晚一天用上AI，就会落后两天。

They say that every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.

但当竞争对手跑得越来越快，你怎么跟得上呢？

But how do you keep up when the competition is only moving faster?

幸运的是，有Netsuite next。

Fortunately, there's Netsuite next.

你可能听说过Netsuite，这个由AI驱动的企业管理套件，能安全地连接你所有的数据、财务、库存、电商、人力资源和客户关系管理，全部集中在一个单一数据源中，深受超过44000家客户的信赖。

You probably know Netsuite, the AI powered business management suite that securely connects all of your data, financials, inventory, commerce, HR, and CRM, all in a single source of truth, trusted by over 44,000 customers.

Netsuite Next 是商业运作方式的又一次巨大飞跃，因为AI已经融入到你做的每一件事中。

Netsuite Next is the next huge leap in how business gets done because AI is built into everything you do.

它会在你一天的工作中提供个性化的洞察，AI助手会和你一起处理日常事务，而且任何时候你有任何问题，只要像跟同事聊天一样问一下就行。

It surfaces custom insights throughout your day, AI agents work alongside you to handle routine work, and anytime you have a question about anything, you just ask like you're talking to a colleague.

它针对各种行业进行了定制，所以能真正支持你业务的运作方式。

It's customized for a wide range of industries, so it supports the way your business truly works.

我自己就在用，你也应该试试。

And I use this and you should too.

这是有史以来第一次，你可以免费试用Netsuite Next。

For the first time ever, you can try Netsuite Next for free.

如果你的收入至少达到七位数，就去netsuite.aitip看看吧。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, go to netsuite.aitip.

为每个行业而生，为每间会议室准备，netsuite.aitip。

Built for every industry, ready for every boardroom, netsuite.aitip.

好的。

All right.

回到节目中来。

Back to the show.

对。

Yeah.

嗯，这就是好生意的妙处，对吧？

Well, that's the beauty of a good business, right?

它们总是给你带来惊喜，而且是往好的方向。

They surprise you consistently to the upside.

所以我想简单讲一下这个优势到底是怎么运作的，因为我第一次读到的时候，觉得有点困惑。

So I'd like to just briefly cover how this advantage really works because when I first read it, it was kind of confusing.

他们有一种叫担保保证金的东西，这让他们能够承接这些更大的项目。

So they have something called surety bonding capacity, which allows them to secure these larger projects.

我第一次读到的时候，心里想，担保保证金到底是什么玩意儿？

Now, when I first read that, I was thinking what on earth is surety bonding?

所以你可以这样理解。

So So you can think of it kind of like this.

当Comfort Systems的潜在客户想要完成一个项目时，他们需要知道这个项目一定会被完成。

When a potential customer of Comfort Systems wants a project to be completed, they need to know that the project will be guaranteed to be completed.

比如说，如果公司搞砸了，比如他们中途撂挑子不干了，或者最坏的情况是公司在建设过程中破产了，那项目就会严重延期，甚至可能完全取消，显然没有客户愿意看到这种情况。

If the company, let's say, messes up, let's say they walk off the job, or if the company worst case scenario goes bankrupt during the building process, well, then the project is going be heavily delayed or it might even be canceled completely and no customer is obviously going to want that.

所以你可以把保证担保看作是一种针对这种风险的保险。

So you can think of surety bonding as a type of insurance policy against that risk.

像Comfort Systems这样的公司向客户承诺他们会完成工作。

A company like Comfort Systems makes a promise to their customer that they're going to finish the job.

如果他们没做到，那他们就得掏钱让别人把活儿干完。

And if they don't, well, then they have to pay for the job to be completed.

到目前为止，Comfort Systems没有任何损失，未来也不预期会有。

And to date, Comfort Systems doesn't have any losses nor are they expecting any in the future.

这既是财务上的优势，也是拥有可信赖声誉的无形资产。

It's both a financial advantage, but also it's an intangible asset to having a trusted reputation here.

而伯克希尔·哈撒韦可能是最好的例子，说明拥有资产负债表优势和高度信任如何让他们在特定交易中占据独特位置，并带来超额资本回报和大量股东价值创造。

And Berkshire Hathaway is is probably the best example of how having balance sheet advantages and a high level of trust can uniquely position them to capitalize on certain deals and and lead to excess returns on capital and a lot of value generation for shareholders.

所以，比如说，伯克希尔在金融危机期间帮助高盛脱困，赚了一大笔钱，部分原因就是他们有现金，而且，你知道，特别是巴菲特，被视为一个非常值得信赖的合作伙伴。

And so, Berkshire, for example, made a killing helping bail out Goldman Sachs during the great financial crisis and in part those because they had the cash to do it and they were, you know, Buffett in particular was seen as really a trusted partner to work with.

回到舒适系统，我觉得保证担保最吸引人的地方在于，它来自担保公司，而不是舒适系统自己。

And going back to Comfort Systems, I think the fascinating part about surety bonding is that it comes from surety companies, not Comfort Systems itself.

所以这些公司基本上会为像舒适系统这样的公司提供的投标提供担保。

So these companies offer to backstop the bids provided by companies like Comfort Systems basically.

为了给一家公司做担保，他们会关注几个不同的标准，比如这家公司有多少股权，银行里有多少现金。

And so in order to back a company, they're gonna have a few different criteria that they focus on and they'll look at things like how much equity that company has and how much cash it has in the bank.

他们还会看这家公司成立多久了，以及是否有完成大型项目的记录。

And they'll also look at how long the company has been around for and and whether they have a track record of completing larger projects.

所以，再次强调，舒适系统强大的资产负债表和过往记录，让他们在争取以合理价格获得保证担保方面，比竞争对手更有优势。

So again, Comfort Systems' strong balance sheet and track record very much give them a step up against the competition in securing surety bonds at a reasonable price.

对，所以

Yeah, so

基本上，就是一个小镇上只有两辆卡车的暖通空调公司，根本不可能为1亿美元的项目获得担保。

essentially the idea is that some small two truck HVAC company in a tiny town would just simply never get bonded for a $100,000,000 project.

随着承包商扩大业务规模，他们也建立了信誉，并有效地解锁了更多机会。

As a contractor scales its operations, they also build legitimacy and unlock more opportunities effectively.

对，没错。

Yeah, exactly.

所以，如果没有必要，没有担保公司愿意冒险押注于较小的运营，这就形成了一种进入壁垒。

And so no surety company wants to take a risk betting on on a smaller operation if they don't have to, and that creates something of a barrier to entry.

但既然舒适系统显然有能力完成这些项目，不像大多数同行，他们可以相当容易地获得越来越大的项目的担保，这使他们能够，正如我们所见，独特地随着业务增长而扩大利润率，其程度可能超出了你对普通承包业务所能达到的预期。

But since Comfort Systems obviously has the capacity to see these projects through, Unlike really most of its peers, they can get bonded for increasingly large jobs pretty easily that allows them to, as we've seen, pretty uniquely be able to scale their margins as the business has grown to an extent that goes farther than probably what you would have expected a regular contracting business to be able to accomplish.

说实话，你知道，大多数承包商并不是利润非常丰厚的业务。

Where if we're being honest, you know, most contractors are not hugely profitable businesses.

没错。

That's right.

所以回到

So getting back

最初那个关于他们的模式是缩小还是扩大的问题，我认为当我们看待这种季度资源优势时，它可能正在扩大。

to that original question of whether their mode is shrinking or expanding, I think when we're looking at this kind of quarter resource advantage, it's probably widening.

但是，你知道，如果我看其他竞争优势，我真的不确定有哪个特别突出。

But, know, if I'm looking at other competitive advantages, I'm not really sure there's one that really jumps out to me.

我见过一些其他投资者说，成功的连续收购者通常都有处理能力。

I've seen some other investors say that serial acquirers just in general that succeed have processing power.

对于那些不熟悉处理能力这个概念的人来说，它指的是一个企业的组织和活动能够带来更低的成本或更优质的产品，而这些只有通过长期的投入才能被匹配。

And so for those that are unfamiliar with the idea of processing power is defined as when a business whose organization and activity set enables lower costs and or superior products that can only be matched by an extended commitment.

基本上就是说，处理能力是需要时间来积累的。

Basically, just means that processing power has to be built out over time.

而且我认为，舒适系统的商业模式一直在不断积累，他们上市已经超过三十年了。

And I think that Comfort Systems business model has been compounding over time with them being publicly traded now for over thirty years.

更不用说，这家公司最初是在1917年成立的。

Not to mention that the original business was actually founded way back in 1917.

所以，公司结构中最吸引人的一点，我记得肖恩你之前提到过，就是它有点像伯克希尔，因为两者都是去中心化的商业模式。

So one of the more compelling aspects of the company structure, and I know Shawn, you originally commented on this was like how it's kind of like Berkshire in the fact that they're both decentralized business models.

这意味着公司总部不一定对每个子公司都发号施令。

And this means that corporate headquarters isn't necessarily calling the shots for every single one of its subsidiaries.

他们把很多责任下放给了更接近终端客户的中层管理人员，这些人更了解客户的需求和想法。

They end up delegating a lot of responsibility to some of the lower level managements who are a lot more closer to the end customers and therefore better understand their customers' wants and needs.

我觉得他们业务流程中另一个不断改进的地方，就是向预制和模块化施工方向发展。

Another part of the businesses process that I think has been improving is their move towards prefabrication and modular construction.

这样他们就能在工地以外的地方完成部分项目，从而更好地应对越来越复杂的项目，按时完工。

This allows them to build parts of the project off-site, which helps improve their ability to finish projects on increasingly more and more complex projects.

对。

Yeah.

我觉得聊完竞争优势，自然就想到另一个我们分析舒适系统时花了不少时间研究的方面，那就是资本效率。

I think speaking about competitive advantages leads naturally to another area of analysis that we spent some time analyzing with Comfort Systems and that is capital efficiency.

具体来说，我看了2015年到2014年之间增量投入资本的回报率。

And specifically, I looked at returns on incrementally invested capital between 2015 and and 2014.

数字非常漂亮，回报率超过25%。

And the numbers are really good, over 25% returns.

简单来说，就是这家公司在资本配置方面做得非常出色。

To put that simply, what that means is that the business was doing an an exceptional job at allocating capital.

考虑到这家公司最近表现这么好，我猜他们的增量回报率还会更高，而且这种情况还会持续一段时间。

And given how well the business has done recently, I'm gonna guess that their incremental returns are even higher and and will continue to be so for for some time.

这确实不是每天都能见到的。

And that's really not something you see every day.

对大多数企业来说，我们之前也聊过，随着规模扩大，有吸引力的投资机会开始减少，增量回报率也会下降。

For for most businesses, we talked about this earlier, they begin to run out of attractive investment opportunities as they scale and incremental returns fall off.

但Comfort Systems成功避免了这种情况。

But Comfort Systems has managed to prevent that.

就像Alphabet和亚马逊这样的公司，它们利用核心业务的利润来对抗规模效应，把增长推向云计算等更赚钱的领域。

Similar to how companies like Alphabet and Amazon have managed to use profits from their core business to resist the law of large numbers and and drive growth into even more profitable areas like cloud computing.

我不会把Comfort Systems和这两家公司相提并论，但它们也绝对不差。

I I wouldn't put Comfort Systems in the same vein as those two companies, but they certainly aren't doing so bad either.

没错。

That's right.

所以，有点

So kind

不过回到你的观点，你提到了增量投入资本的回报率。

of getting back to your point though, you talked about returns on incremental invested capital.

这个指标主要是约翰·胡贝尔推广开来的。

That was kind of a metric that was heavily popularized by John Huber.

我觉得他做得非常出色，让这个概念变得容易理解和消化。

I think he's done an incredible job of just kind of making it understandable and easy to digest.

所以我特别想看看这个数字从2024年以来的变化，因为那是你上次计算时用的最后一年。

So I was really interested in actually seeing how this number has moved just since 2024, which was the last year that you ended up using for your calculations.

所以我做的就是基本上把你的初始分析延伸了一下。

So what I ended up doing was just basically extending out your initial analysis.

我没有把2024年作为结束期，而是用了截至2026年第二季度的过去十二个月的净利润。

So instead of making 2024 the end period, I use a trailing twelve months number for net income and ended in the second quarter of twenty twenty six.

然后我加上了任何额外的增量投入资本。

Then I just added any additional incremental invested capital.

这样算下来，结果非常惊人，因为我们的增量ROIC翻了一倍多，接近60%。

And with that, I got a number that was very impressive because our incremental ROIC has more than doubled to nearly 60%.

由于这个增长，企业的复合增长率也提升到了大约39%。

And due to this increase, the compounding rate of the business has also increased up to about 39%.

我觉得这是一个很好的练习，因为它表明他们实际上在资本配置上做得更好了，而市场也因此正在回报股东。

This is something I think is a great exercise because it shows that they're actually allocating capital even better and the market is currently rewarding shareholders because of it.

对。

Yeah.

很明显，他们在资本配置方面做得非常出色，但有一个我们之前已经详细讨论过的常见前提，那就是大部分有机增长似乎是顺风的一部分，我认为这种顺风不会永远持续下去。

It is clear that they've been doing an exceptional job on the capital allocation front with the usual caveat that I think we've discussed at length today being that much of the organic growth appears to be part of a tailwind that I don't think will last forever.

我对此很有信心。

I feel pretty confident saying that.

所以当我最初推荐Comfort Systems时，他们平均每年大约完成一到两笔交易。

And so when I first pitched Comfort Systems, they were averaging somewhere around one and a half to two deals per year.

而自2025年初以来，他们在机械和电气部门完成了六笔交易。

And since the start of 2025, they've completed six deals across their mechanical and electrical segments.

这六笔交易的总购买价格超过了5.4亿美元。所以可以说，与过去几年相比，他们正在部署异常大量的资本。

And so those six deals set a combined purchase price of over $540,000,000 So they are deploying an unusual amount of capital, I would say, compared to what they've done in in years past.

再说一次，关键问题是这对他们来说是不是新常态，还是这些机会很快就会用完。

And again, the big question is whether this is a new normal for them or if these opportunities are going to be fast depleted.

对。

Yeah.

而且因为我喜欢连续收购的公司，我往往会

And since I like serial acquirers, I tend to

当一家公司真的在加快收购步伐时，我会变得特别兴奋。

get downright giddy when a business is actually increasing its acquisition pace.

但同样重要的是，要适当降低你的预期。

But it's also important to really kind of temper your expectations.

大多数公司往往会保持一个他们觉得舒服的节奏。

Most businesses tend to carry a pace that they're comfortable with.

这取决于几个因素，比如他们并购团队的规模，以及并购项目储备的规模。

And that depends on a few factors such as the size of their M and A team, as well as the size of their M and A pipeline.

我评估连续收购公司资本配置的另一个方法是，真正理解他们的收购标准。

Another way that I like to assess capital allocation of serial acquirers is to really understand their acquisition criteria.

肖恩，你看过很多企业了，我知道如果一家公司收购的项目没有合适的协同效应，或者出价过高，那真的可能让公司陷入困境，至少也会在未来带来一些不必要的麻烦。

You've looked at plenty of businesses, Shawn, and I know that if a company makes an acquisition that doesn't have the right synergies or if they pay the wrong price for it, it can really spell a company's doom or at least cause maybe some unwanted problems in the future.

我们在我们投资的一家公司——Netflix——身上就看到了这一点。

We saw that with one of our portfolio holdings, Netflix.

他们错过了一个相当大的机会，没有收购派拉蒙的Skydance。

They they passed up a pretty massive opportunity in buying Paramount Sky Dance.

我当时真的很兴奋，因为Netflix能拿到像超人这样的新IP。

And I was really excited about Netflix getting all that new IP like Superman.

不过我也很高兴，他们最终有自制力，没有去做那种特别轰动、特别吸引眼球的交易。

And I'm glad though that they had the willpower to restrain themselves from making a really splashy and and sexy deal.

我觉得那笔交易确实很诱人，但它不符合他们的财务纪律约束。

I think that would have been very tempting, but it didn't fall within their their financial discipline constraints.

所以，Comfort Systems不会去做那种能上头条的交易，但关键是要有一个有纪律的标准，围绕这个标准来做收购。

And so Comfort Systems is not going to be doing any deals that generate those kind of headlines, but the point is really about having a disciplined criteria that you base your acquisitions around.

对。

Right.

所以为了更好地理解他们的收购标准，我直接

So to better understand their acquisition criteria, I just

去查了他们的公开文件，想看看他们到底是怎么跟投资者交代的。

went straight to their source and I tried to use their filings to see what they kind of spelled out for investors.

在这方面，我发现自己挺失望的。

And on this, I kind of found myself being pretty disappointed.

你看，像Perimeter Solutions或者Lifeco这样的公司，他们会非常清楚地说明自己在寻找什么样的收购目标。

So when you look at a business, let's say like Perimeter Solutions or Lifeco, they do a really, really good job of spelling out exactly what they're looking for in potential acquisitions.

但说到Comfort Systems，我觉得我完全不知道他们在找什么，至少从他们自己的披露来看是这样。

But when it came to Comfort Systems, I felt like I really had no idea what they were looking for, at least in terms of their own disclosures.

这倒不一定意味着公司在亮红灯。

Now this doesn't necessarily mean the company is putting up a giant red flag.

只是可能他们不想吸引潜在的模仿者，不想把成功的蓝图给别人，这显然长期来看对Comfort Systems不利。

It just means that perhaps they don't want to attract any potential copycats and give them the blueprint to success, which obviously would end up harming Comfort Systems over the long term.

所以最好的办法就是看看他们最近的一些收购案例，然后从中反推出一些数据。

So the next best thing to look at is some of their more recent acquisitions and then try to back out some of the numbers from there.

对。

Yeah.

那你看了他们多早之前的收购记录？

So how far back into their acquisition history did you look?

对。

Yeah.

我没看太远。

I didn't go too far.

我就想看看他们最近做的六笔交易。

I just wanted to see the last six deals that they've done.

幸运的是，他们确实披露了不少数据，包括收购价格，但他们并不总是披露这些收购的营收。

Now luckily for us, they do disclose a decent amount of data, including the purchase price, but they don't always disclose the revenue of these acquisitions.

在我尝试看他们支付的倍数之前，有一点我很欣赏，就是他们用卖方票据作为收购支付的一部分。

One thing I do appreciate before I attempt to look at the multiples they pay is that they are using notes to sellers as part of their acquisition payment.

我喜欢这一点，因为这意味着Comfort Systems实际上不需要自己垫付全部收购价格。

Now I like this because it means that Comfort Systems doesn't actually have to front the entire purchase price itself.

所以在这五笔收购中，我们确实拿到了积压订单，这也让我们对这些业务未来的收入情况有了很好的了解。

So for five of these acquisitions, we actually received the backlog, which also gives us some really good insights into the future revenue generation of these businesses.

我们从Comfort Systems的披露中得知，他们预计在未来十二个月内，会将大约75%的积压订单确认为收入。

We know from Comfort Systems disclosure that they expect to recognize about 75% of the backlog as revenue over the next twelve months.

知道了这一点，我就做了一张表，根据积压订单来预测未来的收入。

So knowing this, I created a table to project future revenue based on the backlog.

然后我用了Comfort Systems自己在机械和电气板块的利润率，来估算未来的营业利润。

Then I applied Comfort Systems own margins to its mechanical and electrical segments to estimate future operating earnings.

这样我们就能大致看出他们为这些业务付了多少钱，

And this gives us a directionally correct view of what they're paying for

方向上是准的。

in these businesses.

我特别喜欢跟这些连续收购的公司做点逆向工程。

I love doing a little reverse engineering with, serial acquirers,

没错。

That's right.

有时候，这是唯一能做的办法。

Sometimes that's the only way you can do it.

所以我觉得，你知道，有时候要理解这些企业，你得愿意去做别人都不做的功课。

So I think, you know, in order to sometimes understand these businesses, you have to be willing to do the work that no one else is doing.

希望这就是那些别人都不做的苦活。

And hopefully that's some of the hard work that nobody else is doing.

做了这些功课之后，我得到的数字其实还挺不错的。

So doing that work, I got numbers that were actually pretty good.

你知道，平均倍数大概是营业收入的九倍左右。

You know, the average multiple was around nine times operating earnings.

我觉得这挺有意思的，因为通常我看那些连续收购的公司时，这个倍数对我来说有点偏高，不是特别高，但可能比我平时看到的要高一点。

I found this interesting because usually when I look at serial acquirers, this multiple seems a little bit high to me, not really high, but maybe a little higher than what I usually see.

但你也要考虑到康福特系统公司的有机增长有多好。

But you also just have to consider how good Comfort Systems organic growth has been.

所以在这种情况下，如果他们觉得还能继续获得一些有机增长，那他们多付一点我也能接受。

So in that case, I'm okay with them paying a little bit higher if they think that they're gonna continue to get some organic growth.

如果你要进入零有机增长的情况，显然你希望支付更低的倍数。

If you're gonna get in zero organic growth, obviously you want to pay an even cheaper multiple.

但说实话，我有点纠结，因为长期来看，你能期待什么样的有机增长呢？

But I will say, to be honest, I'm kind of torn because over the long term, what kind of organic growth can you expect?

你知道，数据中心支出爆发带来的26%有机增长，长期来看是完全不可持续的。

You know, 26% organic growth from an explosion in data center spending is completely unsustainable over the long term.

现在，我想强调的最后一个领域是他们在最新收购中遇到的一个小问题，那就是Summit。

Now, one final area that I wanted to highlight is a small hiccup they had in their latest acquisition, which was called Summit.

如果我们看2025财年的或有对价支付义务，实际上下降了62%，这是因为Summit的earnout费用较低。

So if we look at the contingent earn out obligations for fiscal year twenty twenty five, they actually decreased by 62% caused by a lower earn out expense for Summit.

他们还写道，这一下降主要是由于Summit的earnout费用较低，原因是前一年预测结果发生了较大变化，以及他们达到了最大累计earnout目标。

They also wrote this decrease was primarily caused by lower earnout expenses for Summit driven by larger changes in their forecasted results in the prior year and as a result of them reaching their maximum cumulative earnout target.

所以也许在购买Summit时，对下一年的数字有点过于乐观了，但通常你不喜欢看到这种情况。

So perhaps Summit when purchased was maybe a little too bullish on next year's numbers, but generally you don't like seeing this.

鉴于业务一切进展顺利，我在这里有点吹毛求疵，但我只是觉得值得提一下。

Given how well everything has gone for the business, I'm kind of nitpicking here, but I just thought it was worth highlighting here.

给听众解释一下，earn out 就是收购方为了达成业绩目标而付给被收购公司的奖金。

And just for the listeners, earn outs are like bonuses for hitting performance targets that the acquiring company pays to the target, the company being acquired.

所以如果这些费用减少了，看起来好像是好事，因为对 Comfort Systems 来说成本在下降。

And so if these decrease, it seems like that might be a good thing because costs are declining for Comfort Systems.

其实这更偏向坏事，因为这意味着他们收购的新业务表现不如预期。

It's actually more of a bad thing because it means the new business they acquired is underperforming expectations.

没错。

Exactly.

你之前分析里提到的另一个 Comfort Systems 的主要优势，就是他们的债务状况。

Another area that you pointed out that was a major strength for Comfort Systems in your original analysis was their debt profile.

在你研究他们的时候，他们大约有 1.31 亿美元的债务，但资产负债表上还有 8.6 亿美元的现金。

So around the time that you were researching them, they had about $131,000,000 in debt, but also had $860,000,000 in cash on the balance sheet.

除此之外，这家公司在过去九个月里还产生了超过 7 亿美元的运营现金流。

On top of that, the business had just generated over $700,000,000 in operating cash flow over the last nine months.

所以很明显，从债务状况来看，这家公司非常安全。

So, you know, it's pretty obvious the business was incredibly safe in terms of its debt profile.

但考虑到他们在过去一年半里花了将近5.4亿美元用于收购，我觉得也许应该重新看看他们的债务情况，看看从那以后事情发展得怎么样。

But given the fact that they've spent nearly $540,000,000 on acquisitions over the last year and a half, I thought it would be a good idea to maybe revisit their debt and see how things have played out since then.

是的，这家公司净债务为负，对我来说确实是个很大的亮点。虽然有点老套，但巴菲特投资的第一条原则就是不要亏钱。

Yeah, to the fact that this business has negative net debt was a real positive for me and not to be too cliche, but Buffett's first rule of investing is not to lose money.

我这么说有点半开玩笑，但如果你投资的公司破产了，作为股权投资者，你可能会失去一切。

And I say that kind of tongue in cheek, if if you invest in a business that goes bankrupt, you can lose everything as an equity investor.

你的整个仓位直接归零。

Your entire position just goes to zero.

所以在某种程度上，好的投资既在于找到大赢家，也在于尽量减少灾难性的错误。

So to some extent, good investing is about minimizing catastrophic mistakes as much as it is about finding big winners.

对于Comfort Systems，你知道他们有很大的财务灵活性。

And with Comfort Systems, you know they have a lot of financial leeway.

这家公司本身就带有安全边际。

There is a margin of safety built into the business there.

而且我觉得银行家们可能争着抢着要给像Comfort Systems这样的公司贷款，因为它的资产负债表质量很高，你知道他们信用非常好。

And I would say that bankers are probably falling over themselves to lend to a company like Comfort Systems was such a high quality balance sheet because you know that they're such a good credit.

对。

Yeah.

银行家看到赚钱的好机会时，可能会有点咄咄逼人，但我不想再多说银行家的不是了。

Bankers can get kind of pushy when they see a good opportunity to make some money, but I don't want to dunk on bankers any more than that.

所以你会很高兴知道，康福特系统公司实际上已经减少了长期债务，自从你上次看他们以来。

So you'll be happy to know that Comfort Systems has actually decreased its long term debt since you looked at them.

截至2026年第二季度，他们目前有18亿美元现金，长期债务只有5300万美元。

So as of Q2 of twenty twenty six, they currently have $1,800,000,000 in cash and only $53,000,000 in long term debt.

去年夏天，他们修改了信贷额度，将借款能力提高到约11亿美元。但据我所知，这笔额度完全没有动用。

Last summer, they amended their credit facility to increase borrowing capacity up to about $1,100,000,000 But from what I can tell, this is completely undrawn.

所以他们目前背负的所有债务，实际上都来自收购策略中给前业主的票据。

So all the debt that they're currently carrying is actually from the notes to former owners as part of their acquisition strategy.

这些票据的利率非常非常好，只有大约4%到5.5%。

And these notes carry really, really good interest rates of just about four to 5.5%.

这并不让我感到意外。

Doesn't really surprise me.

我是说，考虑到这家公司赚了这么多钱，现金储备也这么充足，看起来确实不太需要额外的流动性。

I mean, given how much money this business has made and how its cash position has swelled, it does seem obvious that they wouldn't really need liquidity.

但我能想到他们需要动用银行贷款的唯一真正原因，就是他们找到了一个价值数十亿美元的巨型收购目标。

But the only real reason I can see that they would need to reach into that bank that is if they found a monster acquisition target with a a multi billion dollar price tag.

但这不太符合他们的风格，他们通常做的是那些小规模的区域性承包公司收购。

But that doesn't really fit into their their wheelhouse and making these small regional acquisitions of contracting businesses.

所以我不太期待这种情况，但也不能完全排除。

So I wouldn't expect it, but you can't completely rule it out,

我想也是。

I guess.

没错。

That's right.

关于债务，其实没什么好说的了，因为这家公司本身债务就不多。

Now, there really isn't too much more to say when it comes to debt simply because the business just doesn't have that much.

这家公司的资产负债表非常漂亮，远低于债务契约限制，而且有充足的股权和现金作为保护。

The business simply has a beautiful balance sheet as it's well below its debt covenants and is very, very well protected by both equity and cash that it has on its balance sheet.

查理·芒格会这么说。

That's Charlie Munger would say.

我没什么要补充的。

I had nothing to add.

既然这样，我们不如仔细看看管理层吧？

With that said, how about we take a closer look at management then?

我第一次关注Comfort Systems的时候，Brian Lane是他们的CEO兼总裁，他显然在为公司成功打基础方面做得非常出色。

And when I first looked at Comfort Systems, Brian Lane was their CEO and president and and he had clearly done a very good job of setting the business up for success.

有趣的是，Lane在2025年12月把总裁的头衔让给了Trent McKenna，后者之前担任公司的首席运营官，自2004年加入公司以来还担任过其他职务。

And so interestingly, Lane gave up the title of president in December 2025 to Trent McKenna, who previously had served as the business's chief operating officer as well as serving some other roles since he joined the company all the way back in 2004.

对。

Yeah.

所以看起来Brian Lane可能已经找到了他的接班人。

So this seems like Brian Lane has perhaps found his successor.

你知道，他现在大概69岁了，我完全理解他可能想把一些职责交给未来的潜在继任者。

You know, he's now about 69 years old and I don't really blame him for wanting to maybe give up some responsibilities to a possible replacement for him in the future.

所以总裁这个头衔责任重大，这对特伦特·麦肯纳来说可能是个很好的考验，看他是不是那个能继续带领公司走向未来的合适人选。

So the title of president carries a lot of responsibility, and this is probably a good test for Trent McKenna to see if he's the right guy to continue leading this business into the future.

因为我觉得文化是公司竞争优势中非常非常被低估的一部分，所以我总是很高兴看到企业从内部提拔人才。

Since I think that culture is just an heavily, heavily underrated part of a company's competitive advantage, I'm always happy to see businesses that internally promote.

所以我真的很喜欢给特伦特的这个安排。

So I actually really like this assignment for Trent.

现在要给他一个诚实的评价还很难，因为他上任时间相对较短。

It's hard to really give him an honest review yet because he's been in the position for such a relatively short period of time.

所以我们能做的只是看看他上任以来的一些运营指标，我觉得到目前为止这些指标都很好，但公平地说，我可能更愿意把这归功于他们的现任CEO布莱恩·莱恩。

So all we can really do is look at some of the operating metrics since he's been there and I would say so far they're very good, but to be fair, I'd probably attribute more of that to Brian Lane, their current CEO.

感觉这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。

It feels like a move in the right direction.

考虑到布莱恩·莱恩身边一直有这届管理团队，我只能猜测他们对公司取得如此大的成功也做出了很大的贡献。

And given how long Brian Lane has surrounded himself with this current version of the management team, I can only guess they've also made a large contribution as to why this business has had so much success.

而且我觉得公司另一个让我非常敬佩的地方就是领导团队一直非常稳定。

And I think another part of the business I highly respect has been just how stable the leadership team has been.

对。

Right.

领导层的稳定总是一个积极因素，因为我

The stability in leadership is always kind of a positive because I

觉得这能说明公司确实有一种良好的文化。

think it denotes that a business does have this kind of good culture.

但不幸的是，我觉得市场也意识到了这一点，所以我认为一家好公司管理稳定，往往会让它的股价偏高。

But unfortunately, I think the market realizes that too, which is why I think stable management of a good company tends to carry a premium price tag on the business.

所以你可能不会感到意外，这家公司目前的交易价格大约是营业利润的31倍，这非常高。

So you probably won't be surprised that this business currently trades on about 31 times operating earnings, which is very high.

但你知道，考虑到近期的表现，这也许并不太令人惊讶。

But, you know, given the recent performance, it's probably not all that surprising.

另一个值得探讨的管理方面是内部持股。

Another area worth exploring in regards to management is in insider ownership.

在这方面，数字并不完全显示出利益一致，但我觉得已经足够好了。

So on this end, the numbers don't exactly scream alignment, but I think they're adequate enough.

所以从2024年开始，内部持股比例一直在缓慢下降，从2024年的约1.8%降到了现在的约1.2%。

So since 2024 insider ownership has been on a slow decline going from about 1.8% in 2024 down to about 1.2% currently.

考虑到公司创始人之一、首席财务官威廉·乔治还在团队里，我本来希望内部持股比例能再高一些，但这对我来说绝对不是什么大问题。

Considering one of the businesses founders William George, who is the CFO is still on the team, I would have liked to see maybe a little higher insider ownership, but it's definitely not a game breaker for me.

我同意

I'm with

你的看法。

you on that.

那我们接下来详细讨论一下激励计划怎么样？

How about we discuss maybe the incentive plan in more detail then?

因为在我最初的分析中，我指出管理层在各个层面的薪酬都与每股收益增长和自由现金流挂钩。

Because in my initial analysis, I I outlined how management compensation at all levels is tied to earnings per share growth and free cash flow.

所以这实际上是我们节目里可能报道过的最好的激励计划之一，其中确实有真正的利益一致性，让股东觉得他们会和管理层一起受益。

And so that's actually one of the better incentive plans we've probably ever covered on the show where there's just a real degree of alignment that helps shareholders feel like they will be enriched alongside management.

对。

Yeah.

我特别喜欢这个激励计划。

I absolutely love this incentive plan.

这可能是我有幸分析过的最好的激励计划之一。

It's probably one of the better ones that I've ever had the privilege of analyzing.

我还喜欢这家公司的另一点是，对于一家市值600亿美元的公司来说，高管的基本工资看起来都非常合理。

Another area I like about this business is that the base salaries all seem to be very decent for a company with a market cap of $60,000,000,000.

所有高管的年薪都在30万到100万美元之间。

So all executives are making between 300,000 and $1,000,000.

现在回到你刚才提到的激励计划，他们基本上就是坚持同样的做法，我觉得这非常明智。

Now kind of getting back to your point there on the incentives, they're basically just sticking with the exact same thing, which I think is brilliant.

他们继续以每股收益和自由现金流作为激励指标。

They're sticking with earnings per share as well as this kind of free cash flow incentive.

另外，我非常非常佩服他们的一点是，他们不仅给出了每股收益的目标，还给出了自由现金流的目标。

So the other thing that I really, really respect for them is that they give targets for earnings per share as well as for free cash flow.

我见过的大多数公司其实都不会公开这些目标。

Most businesses that I've come across don't actually tell you what those targets are publicly.

我猜他们只是把这些目标内部保留，让管理层知道要达成什么，但出于某种原因，他们通常不会告诉股东。

I assume they just keep them internally so management knows what they need to hit, but for whatever reason they don't tend to tell shareholders.

但在Comfort Systems的案例中，他们确实公开了这些数字。

But in Comfort Systems case, they actually do disclose these numbers.

所以听听这个。

So listen to this.

2023年的每股收益目标大约是5.50美元，到2025年，上升到15.75美元。同一时期的自由现金流目标从大约2.04亿美元增加到3.02亿美元。公平地说，实际数字要高得多，所以我认为这是管理层非常有信心能够达成的目标。

EPS target in 2023 was about $5.50 and in 2025, it's up to $15.75 The free cash flow target over the same period went from about $2.00 4,000,000 to $3.00 $2,000,000 Now, to be fair, the actual numbers are quite a bit higher, so I think it's a target that they have very high conviction in that management can hit.

尽管如此，我觉得仅仅达成这些目标就能创造很多股东价值，显然如果他们超额完成——到目前为止他们已经大幅超额完成——那么股东们显然会更高兴。

Nonetheless, I feel that the simple act of hitting these targets will create a lot of shareholder value and obviously if they exceed them, which they have by a country mile so far, then shareholders are obviously going to be even happier.

现在让你了解一下管理层表现有多好：过去三年，他们每年都获得了目标的200%，这是他们被允许获得的最高比例。

Now just to give you an idea of how well management has done, they've received the full 200% of their target, which is the maximum they're allowed to for each of the past three years.

可以肯定地说，这里的管理层是一流的，证据就在数字里。

It is pretty safe to say management is top notch here and the proof is right there in the numbers.

高管们获得了非常丰厚的绩效奖金，但这些都是应得的。

Executives have earned very nice performance bonuses, but they've been well deserved.

他们也给股东带来了相当不错的回报率，对吧，自2023年以来，股价年复合增长率超过100%。

They've also earned shareholders a pretty nice, rate of return, right, with shares compounding at over a 100% annually since 2023.

我完全同意。

I completely agree.

所以我在这里发现的唯一一个小警示信号是持股比例的下降。

So the only kind of yellow flag I found here is in the declining ownership rates.

你知道，我认为这可能是管理层在期权到期时选择套现而不是继续持有的信号。

You know, I think this is a signal that management is maybe converting their options into cash upon vesting rather than holding them.

但，你知道，我想我大体上对此是可以接受的。

But, you know, I guess I'm, I'm okay with this for the most part.

我当然更希望他们能保持内部持股比例在1%以上。

I'd obviously prefer that they keep insider ownership above 1%.

所以如果内部人员继续出售，未来几年内这个比例有跌破1%的风险。

So there is a risk it drops below that over the next few years if insiders keep selling.

但是，你知道，如果从战略角度来看，管理层可能认为现在正是他们从已到期的期权中获得大部分现金的最佳时机。

But, know, if you look at this from a strategic standpoint, management might just think that the timing right now is probably when they will get most of the cash from their vested options.

也许等这轮数据中心芯片制造周期结束，股价变得更合理时，他们就更愿意持有了。

Perhaps maybe when this data center chip manufacturing cycle ends and shares become more reasonably priced, they'll be more likely to hold on to them.

但显然，只有到那时我们才会知道。

But we obviously won't know until that actually happens.

所以我们第一次看这家公司时，搭档丹尼尔问了一些关于业务固有风险的很好的问题。

So when we first looked at the company, our co host Daniel asked some really great questions about the risk inherent to this business.

我们之所以关注商业周期风险，是因为这家公司在某种程度上与美国整体的建筑周期紧密相关。

And so I think we looked at the risk in the business cycle simply because, you know, this was to some extent a company that was so closely correlated with the construction cycle more broadly across The US.

而建筑行业一直是个波动很大的行业。

And that was and has been a pretty volatile industry.

但我指出，Comfort Systems不仅仅依赖新建项目。

But I made the point that Comfort Systems is not only reliant on new builds.

即使新建项目不景气，大约40%的业务来自现有建筑，比如翻新、扩建、维护和维修。

So even if new builds are in a rut, about 40% of its business comes from existing buildings, things like renovations, expansions, maintenance, and repairs.

在经济放缓或资金紧张时，这些工作可能会推迟，但推迟的时间也有限。

And in an economic slowdown, if there's a cash crunch, some of that stuff can be deferred, but it can only be deferred for so long.

所以这在一定程度上为业务提供了天然的对冲。

And so that sort of serves as a natural hedge for the business.

对。

Right.

而且你

And you

实际上可以说这家公司已经进一步多元化，我认为这也是该业务的另一个优势。

can actually argue that the company has further diversified, which I think is another edge for that business.

所以，你知道，现在他们有了多个业务板块，并且在科技方面投入更多，而科技显然有自己的周期，所以他们受到了一定程度的保护。

So, you know, now that they have the multiple segments and are working more on technology, which obviously has its own cycles, they're somewhat more protected.

但再说一次，一旦那个周期转变，我看不出这项业务如何能保持目前的势头。

But again, once that cycle turns, I can't see how this business maintains its current momentum.

而且你大概可以说，他们是用更传统的建筑相关周期性，换来了更多对数据中心或芯片制造周期的敞口。

And you can probably argue that they're trading more traditional construction related cyclicality for more exposure to just data center or chip manufacturing cyclicality.

所以我要指出的其他风险更多是这项业务固有的风险，我个人曾因此亏过钱。

So the other risks that I'd point out here is more of an inherent risk in this business that I personally lost money on.

这其实就是看一家公司公布的积压订单，然后试图从中推测未来的数字。

And that's just looking at a business that publishes their backlogs and trying to extrapolate future numbers from them.

所以我之前有两家很小的公司，它们的积压订单在我看来相对于市值来说非常大。

So I've had two very small businesses that had backlogs that I felt were very large for their market cap size.

有趣的是，在很短的一段时间内，我确实在这些投资上赚了钱。

And the fascinating part was that I ended up actually doing well in those bets for a very short period of time.

但持有时间越长，我就开始遇到一些问题。

But then the longer I owned the business, I started running into some issues.

你知道，有些问题可能是项目比你想的要花更长时间。

And you know, some of those issues might be that the projects take longer than you think.

所以原本预计一年内确认的收入，可能拖到十八个月，甚至两年。

So the revenue that's recognized originally in a year, maybe that takes eighteen months or maybe that takes two years.

或者你会遇到这样的问题：他们同时在做很多项目，而且报告盈利后马上就有截止日期，所以那些收入要等到下个季度才能确认。

Or you run into the problem where they're working on just a bunch of different projects and they have deadlines that come out immediately after they report their earnings and therefore they don't get that revenue until the following quarter.

所以，说实话，我对积压订单增长的公司经验并不太好。

So my experience with businesses with growing backlogs, to be honest, hasn't been great.

但我要说，你看这家公司的收入、每股收益和自由现金流，过去几年的增长稳定得令人惊叹。

But I will say, you know, looking at this business's revenue earnings per share and free cash flow, it's absolutely outstanding how steady their growth has been over the last few years.

唯一一个看起来每个季度波动稍微大一点的指标就是他们的自由现金流数字。

The only KPI that seems to be a little bit more volatile from quarter to quarter is in their free cash flow number.

毕竟这是一家做工程建设的公司，所以每个季度在营运资金需求上有些波动是正常的。

Well, is after all a business that constructs things, and so therefore you're gonna have some fluctuations quarterly in working capital needs.

对，这确实会反映在自由现金流上，但我不太担心这个。

And yeah, that that shows up in free cash flows, but it doesn't bother me hugely.

我觉得短期内的现金流波动我可以接受，因为长期来看，这些波动似乎会平衡掉。

I I think I'm okay with the lumpy cash flows in the short term because over the long term, it it does seem to to balance out.

而且既然过去二十年自由现金流每年复合增长22%，我对他们能很好地管理这些营运资金需求很有信心。

And since free cash flow has compounded at 22% a year for the last two decades, I have a lot of faith that they'll manage these working capital needs pretty well.

好了，我觉得是时候进入本期节目的环节，来看看Comfort Systems的内在价值了。

Well, I think it's a time of the episode where we look at the intrinsic value of Comfort Systems.

既然我们是在重新审视这家公司，通常我们的模型不会有太大变化，但鉴于股价已经涨了五倍，我实际上不得不对模型做了一些相当大的调整。

So since we're revisiting the business, usually we wouldn't see much of a shift in our model, but I actually had to make some pretty big adjustments to the model given the five times in share price appreciation that we've seen so far.

对，对。

Yeah, yeah.

我是说，原来的模型是用2024年的数据建的，但那时候到现在，AI领域变化太大了。

I mean, original model was built using 2024 numbers and well, a lot has changed in that time in the world of AI.

所以确实该更新了。

So it's definitely due for an update.

顺便提一下，你可以点开这期节目的下方说明，查看我们提到的模型，而且是免费的。

And just to mention it, you can go into the show notes for this episode below and click to see the model that we're referencing and that's available for free.

没错。

Exactly.

所以我重新建了模型，用的是2026年上半年的过去十二个月的数据。

So I went through and rebuilt the model using the trailing twelve months numbers from the first half of twenty twenty six.

除了收入基数大幅变化之外，模型里需要调整的另一部分显然是利润率。

Now outside of the revenue base number changing substantially, the other part of the model that needed adjustment was obviously on the margins.

原来的模型假设营业利润率从大约10.5%开始逐渐下降。

So the original model had operating margins gently declining from about 10.5%.

现在利润率不但没有下降，业务反而大幅扩张，营业利润率目前大约在16.5%。

Now instead of the margins declining, the business has actually scaled dramatically and operating margins are now running at about 16.5%.

所以我们在模型里也得考虑到这一点。

So we have to account for that in the model as well.

不过说实话，给这家公司建模挺难的。

But if I'm being honest here, modeling this business, it's pretty tough.

而且我觉得现在可能比肖恩你当初建模的时候还要难，因为我觉得这家公司现在差不多处于周期的顶部。

And I think it might actually be even tougher now than when you first modeled it, Shawn, simply because I feel the business is now running somewhere around the top of the cycle.

老实说，如果我说我对这轮AI周期还能持续多久有什么见解，那是在撒谎。

And to be quite honest, I'd be lying if I said I had any insights onto how much longer this AI cycle is gonna last.

嗯，我完全同意你的看法。

Well, I'm right there with you on that.

这么说可能有点过早，但你是怎么考虑基准情景来估算Comfort Systems的公允价值的？

I'd prove to be pretty premature in saying that though, but how did you, think about the base case when you tried to model out Comfort Systems fair value?

我假设收入继续以每年大约13%的速度复合增长，这反映了一些放缓，但也反映了Comfort Systems在AI方面比过去几年有更多增长机会的新现实。

So I assume that revenue continues to compound at about 13% per year on average, reflecting some slowdown, but also a new reality where Comfort Systems has more opportunity for growth, to AI than it did over the last few years.

现在，假设一旦我们明确达到了AI支出周期的顶峰，公司的估值倍数会下降，我也尝试通过使用约为当前估值三分之二的退出倍数来大致考虑这一点。

Now with the assumptions that the company's valuation multiple comes down once it's clear we've reached the top of the AI spending cycle, I also try to approximately account for this by using an exit multiple that is about two thirds of the company's current valuation.

显然，这些都是非常主观的输入，你试图做到准确，即使你不可避免地会精确地出错。

Evidently, these are all very subjective inputs where you're trying to be directly correct, even if you're inevitably going to be precisely wrong.

所以，你知道，基于所有这些假设，Comfort Systems的公允价值大约是1600美元，这比当前股价略有折价。

So, you know, with all these assumptions, get a fair value of about $1,600 for Comfort Systems, which is a small discount to the current stock price.

而且这还没有考虑任何安全边际，以确定什么才是真正有吸引力的入场价格。

And this is before applying any margin of safety to determine what might actually be an attractive entry price.

我的结论是，Comfort Systems确实因为一些外部因素以及他们善于抓住这些机会的能力，其内在价值大幅增加了。

The takeaway to me is that Comfort Systems has legitimately seen its intrinsic value increase dramatically, thanks to some external factors and their savviness in capitalizing on those opportunities.

所以这确实是一家很棒的公司，听完这期节目后，我会比第一次看它时更想拥有它。

And so it really is a great business that after this episode, I would be even more excited to own than when we first looked at it.

但这里的结果范围真的非常非常宽。

But the range of outcomes here are really, really wide.

所以没有人知道这个AI超级周期会把我们带向何方。

And so nobody knows where this AI super cycle will lead us.

而且，它对这个业务的内在价值变得如此关键，尤其是在这个估值水平下。

And and yet it's become so critical to the intrinsic value of this business, especially at this valuation.

我就是没法安心以这个价格持有，除非它能更大幅度地对冲一些下行风险，我觉得这些风险目前还没有被完全定价。

And I just couldn't get comfortable owning it at a price that didn't more significantly hedge some of the downside risks, which I don't think are being priced in fully today.

我不认为数千亿美元会无限期地投入到AI资本支出和基础设施上。

I don't think hundreds of billions of dollars are going to be spent indefinitely on AI CapEx, and infrastructure.

所以我的想法和上次差不多，觉得这个业务真的很好，而且一直在超出我的预期。

And so I'm sort of in the same place as as last time where I'm thinking the business is really good and has continued to exceed my expectations.

但以这个价格买入，感觉更像是在押注AI支出能像现在这样持续下去。

But buying at these prices feels like really a momentum bet on AI spending being able to continue as it has.

幸运的是，对Comfort Systems来说，过去一年确实加速了，但现在我们又到了周期的一个年末，股价已经涨了五倍，在这个价位买入真的感觉像是投机。

And fortunately for Comfort Systems in the last year, it has very much accelerated, but now we're another year end of the cycle and we're at a five times higher stock price and it would just feel really speculative to buy in at these prices.

感觉就像在追逐一个已经错过的机会。

It would feel like chasing after an opportunity that has already gone by.

说实话，我也意识到自己的偏见，我对这个股票有很多FOMO，我觉得这影响了我的判断。

So honestly, just recognizing my own biases too, I have a lot of FOMO from this one and I think that clouds my thinking.

所以与其可能加倍投入，追高康福特系统，在我第一次看的时候价格已经涨了五倍，犯下灾难性的错误，我觉得最好还是继续观望，采取更谨慎的态度，看看未来几年事情如何平衡，也许等待一个市场情绪急剧转向不利的时机，那时市场可能低估了数据中心新收入流的质量，因为这些设施需要维护，这可能会创造更有吸引力的买入机会。

And so rather than potentially doubling down and and making a catastrophic mistake by chasing after comfort systems at five times the price from when I first looked at it, I feel like it is probably better to just remain on the sidelines and and take a more cautious approach and see where things balance out in the coming years and and maybe look for a moment where the sentiment sharply turns against the business and the market is discounting perhaps the quality of the new data center revenue streams that it will continue to get as those facilities need to be, maintained and that might create a more attractive buying opportunity.

另一方面，情绪在另一个方向上处于极端，但谁知道这种情况会不会发生，什么时候发生。

Then on the flip side, where sentiment is sort of at an extreme in the other direction, but who knows if or when that will happen.

所以尽管很痛苦，我确实认为对我们来说正确的决定是继续观望，并接受这个投资机会已经错过了。

So as painful as it is, I do think the right decision for us is to continue to stay on the sidelines here and recognize that it's okay that this one got away from us.

但我们不必去追它，而且总会有更多的机会。

But we don't have to chase it and there are always gonna be more opportunities.

是的，完全同意。

Yeah, absolutely.

我完全同意你的看法，肖恩。

I completely agree with you, Shawn.

有趣的是，当我准备这期节目时，我觉得，哦，我不想太批评肖恩说他错过了这个机会。

And it's funny when I was going through this episode, I I felt like, oh, I I don't wanna bash Shawn too much saying that he made a mistake in skipping this one.

但说实话，当我仔细研究后，我越了解这个业务，我越觉得他完全做出了正确的决定，没有买入，因为简单来说，这个业务有太多未知数。

But to be honest, when I looked at it, the more and more I understood the business, the more I actually think he made completely the right decision in not buying it because simply put, there's just so many unknowns in this business.

而且，你知道，如果我们真的在建设AI数据中心或者为AI数据中心提供资金，并且对这次资本支出周期会持续多久有一些了解，那么我们可能会有一些见解，比如这东西还会再持续十年，那样的话，说实话，Comfort Systems现在可能真的非常便宜。

And, you know, maybe if we were out there building AI data centers or funding AI data centers and had some idea of how long this CapEx cycle is going to last for, well maybe we would have some insights that would be like, this thing's going to last for another ten years in which case, to be honest, Comfort Systems probably would be really really cheap right now.

但再说一次，我完全没有把握，我觉得Shawn在做这个判断时也完全没有把握。

But again, I have zero conviction and I think Shawn also has zero conviction in making that call.

因此，我认为正确的做法也是直接跳过这家公司。

And therefore I think the right call also is to just skip the business.

那么，今天我们就到这里，各位。

So with that said, that's all we have for you today, folks.

但像往常一样，我想用一句名言来结束。

But as usual, I'd like to leave you with a quote.

这句话出自William Thorndyke。

This one is by William Thorndyke.

许多公司的负责人并不擅长资本配置。

The heads of many companies are not skilled in capital allocation.

他们的不足并不令人意外。

Their inadequacy is not surprising.

大多数老板之所以能爬到最高位置，是因为他们在市场营销、生产、工程、行政管理，或者有时候是公司政治这些方面表现出色。

Most bosses rise to the top because they have excelled in areas such as marketing, production, engineering, administration, or sometimes institutional politics.

一旦他们成为CEO，就必须做出资本配置的决策。

Once they become CEOs, they must now make capital allocation decisions.

这句话非常有力量，因为我完全同意。

Now this is just a super powerful quote because I completely agree with it.

很少有公司能遇到一位CEO，不仅在日常经营上表现出色，而且在资本配置上也做得很好。

The rare company gets a CEO who can excel not only at the job of running a business day to day, but also in allocating capital well.

我觉得对于Comfort Systems来说，很明显Brian Lane在这两方面都做得很好，这也是为什么它一直是个大赢家。

I think when it comes to Comfort Systems, it's very obvious that Brian Lane has excelled at both, which is why it's been such a big winner.

好了，今天就到这里，下次见。

And with that, that's all for today, and I'll see you next time.

感谢收听TIP。

Thanks for listening to TIP.

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