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你正在收听TIP。
You're listening to TIP.
欢迎回到《投资者播客》，第八百四十五期。
Welcome back to The Investors Podcast, episode eight forty five.
肖恩，我上次向你推荐的股票是Palantir。
And Shawn, the last stock I pitched to you was Palantir.
这让很多人感到意外，但我确实对这家公司的质量感到惊讶，至少是我们能理解且不太技术化的那部分。
And that came as a surprise to many, but I was definitely surprised by the quality of the company, at least by the part that we could understand and that wasn't too technical for us.
丹尼尔，我得跟你坦白一个小秘密。
I've got to admit a little secret to you, Daniel.
说实话，我还是不太明白“本体论”是什么意思。
I still don't really know what ontology means, if we're being completely honest.
其实，在我们录制完的那个周末，我听了一个长达五小时的德语播客，里面也讲到了德国的警务工作，还提到了Palantir，那真是相当吸引人。
Well, actually the weekend after our recording, I listened to a five hour long German podcast which also covered police work in Germany and they mentioned Palantir and that was quite fascinating.
丹尼尔，五个小时啊。
Daniel, five hours.
别这样嘛。
Come on.
我还以为我们的分析已经够长了。
I thought our breakdowns were getting a little lengthy.
我猜你肯定是用两倍速快速听完的。
I'm guessing that you raced through it at like two times speed.
2.85倍。
2.85.
其实我得说，我特别喜欢YouTube那个可以手动设置播放速度的功能，而不是只能选那些0.5的档位。
I actually got to say I love that YouTube feature where you can manually set the speed instead of having these 0.5 jumps.
而且我都不确定这是不是YouTube Premium的功能，还是普通YouTube就有。
And I'm not even sure whether that's part of YouTube Premium or just normal YouTube experience.
不过话说回来，那个播客讲的是一位警察，他提到要花几个月才能画出犯罪组织的思维导图，但如果他被允许使用Palantir，可能只需要几分钟。
But anyway, the podcast was about a police officer who talked about how it took months to come up with a sort of mind map of a criminal organization and how if he would have been allowed to use Palantir, it would have simply taken him a couple of minutes.
这让我觉得，通过整合各个机构的数据，确实能大大简化警察和其他安全机构的日常工作，这是一个非常具体的例子。
And that felt like a very tangible example of how just going through the databases of all of these agencies can simplify the day to day job of police officers, but also different security agencies.
这基本上就是我们之前聊的那个思维导图，也就是Palantir用的那个本体模型。
And that's basically, you know, the mind map that we talked about, the ontology that Palantir uses.
不过那只是我关于Palantir的题外话。
But that was just my off topic tangent on Palantir.
那我们来看看今天的公司，Copart。
So let's go to today's company, which is Copart.
走起。
Away we go.
自2014年以来，我们的播客下载量已超过2亿次，采访了全球最优秀的投资者，深入研究了价值投资的原则，并发现了许多引人注目的投资机会。
Since 2014, with more than 200,000,000 downloads, we have interviewed the world's best investors, studied deeply the principles of value investing, and uncovered many compelling investment opportunities.
我们专注于理解企业和内在价值，据此进行投资，并与你分享我们学到的一切。
We focus on understanding businesses and intrinsic value, investing accordingly, and sharing everything we learn with you.
本节目不构成投资建议。
This show is not investment advice.
仅供信息和娱乐用途。
It's intended for informational and entertainment purposes only.
主持人和嘉宾表达的所有观点都仅代表他们个人，而且他们可能持有讨论中提到的证券。
All opinions expressed by hosts and guests are solely their own, and they may have investments in the securities discussed.
接下来是我们的主持人，肖恩·奥马利和丹尼尔·马恩克。
Now for your hosts, Shawn O'Malley and Daniel Mahncke.
也许我们应该从我们自己和Copart的渊源开始说起。
Perhaps we should start with our own history with Copart.
你在去年十月推荐了这只股票，那时候Copart已经从历史高点下跌了30%。
You pitched the stock in October of last year and at that point Copart was already down 30% from all time highs.
但正如我们今天所知，在那之后还有进一步下跌的空间。
But as we know today, there was still some room for even more pullbacks beyond that.
我们不会试图择时市场，也没有因为猜测未来几个月的股价走势而卖出。
We don't try to time the market and we didn't sell because we speculated on where the stock was gonna go in the next few months.
但当时卖掉Copart，腾出一些资金去投资其他地方，确实感觉是个正确的决定。
But it did feel like the right decision to free up some capital by selling Copart to invest it elsewhere.
从那以后，这只股票表现不佳，这让这个决定看起来很有先见之明，尽管大部分可能只是运气好。
And the stock has had a rough time since then, which makes the decision look prescient, even if it was mostly just random luck.
我觉得现在我们做买卖决定的时候，其实都是靠运气。
I think it's always random luck whenever we make buy or sell decisions now.
不过说真的，当时我们买Copart的时候，它只占我们仓位的2%。
But jokes aside, mean, Copart has been a 2% position back then when we bought it.
简单说一下，2%的仓位通常意味着我们还在观察它。
And just for context, a 2% position usually means it's sort of on probation.
也就是说，我们还没有完全看好它，要么是因为估值，要么就是我们对它的质量有些担忧。
So we're basically not yet completely sold on it, either because of valuation or simply because we have some quality concerns.
我想我可以代表我们俩说，对于Copart来说，肯定是前者。
And I think I could speak for the both of us when I say that with Copart, it was certainly the former.
我们都知道它的质量是相当高的。
I think we all know the quality is quite high.
但就像你说的，当时它的股价可能只是合理，绝对不算便宜。
But as you said, the stock was perhaps fairly valued, definitely not cheap at that point.
而且我觉得有时候你也需要退一步，把事情简化，这样才不会错过最重要的东西。
And I feel like sometimes you also just need to zoom out and simplify so you don't miss the most important things.
如果你这样看Copart，你就会明白为什么股价会走到现在这个位置，那就是过去两三年里，营收增长明显放缓了。
And if you do that for Copart, you will find out why the stock is where it currently is, which is that top line growth has been slowing down dramatically if you look at the last two or three years.
所以，这就是我们几周前那期《最大输家》节目里的主要共同点——股价往往跟随营收增长，而Copart的增长从十几个百分点一路下滑到几乎零增长。
So that was, you know, the major common denominator in our Biggest Loser episode just a couple of weeks ago, that stock prices tend to follow top line growth, and Copart's slowed down from just mid teens to basically no growth at all.
这就是今天的故事。
That's the story for today.
感谢大家的收听。
Thanks for tuning in folks.
不，我开玩笑的。
No, I'm joking, of course.
Copart有意思的地方在于，虽然它有着高质量复合增长股的名声，但之前也经历过增长放缓，而且我们现在已经习惯了那种几乎只往右上角走的软件图表，但Copart本质上是一个周期性更强的业务。
What is interesting for Copart, think is that while they have the reputation as being one of these high quality compounders, they have had these growth slowdowns before and we're used to the software charts by now that only go in basically one direction up into the right, but Copart is fundamentally a more cyclical business.
上一次营收增长停滞是在2015年。
And so the last time revenue growth stalled out was in 2015.
但同样，这对股东来说绝不是致命的。
But again, that was not fatal to shareholders by any means.
说实话，虽然收入有些波动，但每股收益一直在稳定增长，这确实有帮助。
And to be fair, it does help that earnings per share grew consistently despite some revenue volatility.
但在我们深入讨论数据以及自我们第一次推荐这家公司以来有什么变化之前，你能不能先简单总结一下Copart的投资逻辑，让我们都对齐一下？
But before we get deeper into the numbers and what has changed since our first time pitching the company, how about you just give us a little summary of the pitch for Copart first so we're all on the same page?
好的。
Yes.
如果要用一句话来概括Copart的业务，那就是：Copart是一个处理报废车的市场。
So if I had to summarize Copart's business in just one sentence, it would probably be that Copart is a marketplace for total cars.
每年都有数百万辆车达到所谓的“使用寿命终点”，可能是因为事故、冰雹、洪水，或者仅仅是因为车龄太老——这其实是最常见的原因。
So every year, millions of cars reach the end of what you can call their useful life, whether that would be through a crash or a hailstorm, a flood, or just because of old age, which is most often the actual reason.
但其中大部分车会到保险公司手里。
But most of those cars, they go to an insurance company.
而这些保险公司基本上就是Copart的主要客户群。
And those insurance companies are essentially Copart's main customer base.
他们想处理掉这些车，Copart就负责把卖方——也就是保险公司——和潜在买家连接起来。
So they wanna get rid of the car, and Copart takes care of that by connecting the seller, which is the insurance company, with a potential buyer.
买家通常包括拆解商或回收商、二手车经销商、国际出口商、汽车修理店，还有个人，比如说爱好者或来自世界各地的私人买家。
And buyers usually include, you know, dismantlers or recyclers, used car dealers, international exporters, auto repair shops, but also individual, let's say, hobbyists or private buyers from basically all around the world.
通过Copart卖给私人买家的很多车，最后实际上都跑到了南美的街头，比如我听说的情况就是这样。
Many cars sold through Copart to private buyers actually end up on South American streets, for example, from what I've heard.
我记得我们第一次做这期节目的时候，你刚从多米尼加共和国度假回来。
I think when we first did the episode, you'd actually just gotten back from a little vacation in the Dominican Republic.
我记得你说过，那里的很多车看起来就像是来自Copart的停车场。
And I remember you saying that a lot of the cars there looked like they could have been from a Copart lot.
我觉得新兴市场往往是Copart的车被私人买家买走的地方。
I think emerging markets tend to be where Copart's cars are being bought by private buyers.
所以多米尼加共和国确实有一些车是过不了德国TÜV检测的。
So there were definitely some cars in The Dominican Republic that wouldn't have passed the German TOF.
其实我在节目之前就跟你说过这件事，因为我希望你可能知道德国TÜV到底是什么。
And I actually talked to you about it before the episode because I hoped you might know what the German TOF actually is.
你并不知道。
You didn't.
所以为了给美国听众解释一下，TÜV是德国的官方技术检验机构。
And so just for context for the American listeners, the turf is the official technical inspection association in Germany.
我查了一下，好像美国没有类似的东西。
And I've googled it, and apparently, there's no equivalent in The US.
在美国，汽车安全更像是各州自己管的事吧。
And car safety for you guys is more of a state to state department thing, I guess.
你可以这么理解：每辆德国车都必须通过TÜV的检验，只有通过了才能上路。
But you can think of it as every single German car has to go to the German turf, and only if they approve, you can actually drive it on the streets.
还有一点要补充的是，Copart的核心业务并不涉及车辆的所有权。
And I should add that in its core business, Copart doesn't take ownership of any of the cars.
它其实就是一个市场平台，作为服务的一部分，也负责物流，有点像二手车界的亚马逊。
So it's just a marketplace that, as part of its service, also handles the logistics, which is kind of like Amazon, but for used cars.
所以Copart会拖运这些车辆。
So Copart toast the vehicles.
他们把这些车停在自己的场地上。
They, you know, park them in one of their yards.
他们给车拍照。
They photograph them.
他们处理文件，然后举办拍卖会，在拍卖会上真正卖掉那些车。
They handle the paperwork, and then they run the auction where they actually sell those cars.
然后他们基本上从卖方和买方两边都收取费用，卖方就是那些保险公司，买方比如可能是经销商。
Then they basically take a fee from both the seller side, so those are the insurance companies, and the buyer side, which for example, could be, you know, a dealer.
为了让大家都能理解，我们快速举个例子。
And just to run through a quick example, so we're all on the same page.
假设你被追尾了，你的保险公司现在需要做决定，要么修车，要么把车报废并赔付给你。
Let's say you get rear ended and your insurer now has a decision to make, either repair the car or write it off and pay you out.
如果修理费用是5000美元，而保险公司认为通过卖掉报废车能回收超过5000美元，它就会把车报废并卖掉；如果不能，就修车。
And if the repair costs, let's say $5,000 and the insurer thinks it can recover more than $5,000 by selling the wrecked car, it writes the car off and sells it and if not, it repairs it.
在行业里，这个决定的结果被称为“全损率”，也就是在事故理赔中，保险公司认为车辆不值得修理的比例。
So in the industry you call the outcome of that decision the total loss frequency, the percentage of accident claims where the insurer decides the car isn't worth repairing.
全损率越高，对Copart越有利，因为这意味着有更多的车进入他们的平台。
And the higher the total loss frequency, the better it is for Copart because that means they're getting more cars coming into their platform.
有趣的是，在过去的几十年里，这成了Copart的一大顺风。
And the interesting part in the last decades is that this has been a major tailwind for Copart.
所以杰伊·阿代尔，他是老CEO也是新CEO，我们稍后会在节目里解释这一点，他最近在投资者电话会上说，他刚开始的时候，总损失率只有8%，那大约是35年前。
So Jay Adair, who is the old and also the new CEO, and we'll explain that later on in the episode, he recently said in an investor call that the total loss frequency when he started, which was about thirty five years ago, was only 8%.
而今天，这个数字几乎达到了24%。
And today, it's almost 24%.
这乍一听有点反直觉，因为你会觉得汽车变得更安全了，应该会减少严重事故，从而减少报废车辆的数量。
Which is counterintuitive at first because you would think that cars have become much safer leading to fewer catastrophic accidents, which again should lead to fewer total cars.
但实际上，现代汽车装满了昂贵的传感器，这让我妈很恼火，她买了辆新车，然后特别讨厌它。
But actually the modern car is packed with expensive sensors, much to my mom's chagrin who has a new car, and then hates it.
后视镜里的摄像头、保险杠里的雷达、停车辅助、车道保持，这些东西理论上确实让车更安全，但也让车本身更脆弱，维修起来更贵。
Cameras in the mirrors, radar in the bumper, parking sensors, lane assist, all that stuff does in theory help make the car safer, but it also makes the car itself more fragile and expensive to fix.
因为碰撞之后，每一个传感器都得重新校准，这既费时又费钱。
Because after a collision, every one of those sensors has to be recalibrated, which costs a lot of time and a lot of money.
有很多这样的照片，我想大部分是特斯拉，但那只是因为它们是现在路上最现代化的车，你经常能看到只是轻微的事故，然后车突然就被报废了。
There are a lot of these photos of, I think mostly Teslas, but that's just because they are the most modern cars out there right now, where you just see a minor accident happening, and then suddenly the car is totaled.
说实话，看起来完全没问题。
And it looks completely fine, to be honest.
就是有些摄像头被撞到了，现在连这都能让车报废。
There's just some, you know, cameras that were hit, and even that can total a car by now.
但前CEO Jeff Liao在最近一次财报电话会议上还提到一个有趣的点，就是Copart不只是被动受益于全损率的上升，他们其实也在推动这个数字往上走。
But another interesting point that the ex CEO, Jeff Liao, made in one of his latest earnings calls is that Copart is not only a passive beneficiary of, you know, an increase in the total loss frequency, but they actually help drive it upward.
基本上，Copart在拍卖会上每多赚一块钱，保险公司就越倾向于直接把车报废，然后送到Copart去拍卖。
So, basically, every additional dollar that Copart gets for a car at an auction makes it more attractive for insurers to just total the car and then send it to Copart for auction.
他大概的意思就是，这其实是在跟修理厂抢生意。
And he sort of framed it as basically competing with the repair shops.
每辆车去了Copart而不是修理厂，对他们来说就是一次胜利。
Every car that goes to Copart and doesn't get into a repair shop is a win for them.
所以Copart能带来的回报越高，他们就越能赢得处理理赔的机会，而不是让车去修理厂。
So the higher the returns Copart generates, the more often it wins the right to resolve that claim instead of that car going to the body shop.
这是个很好的机制，因为它也让Copart和保险公司之间的利益更加一致了。
And it's a great system because it also aligns Copart and the insurance companies much better.
所以，这不仅让保险公司把车源和成本交给Copart更划算，而且Copart的费用也会随着销售价格的提高而增加。
So not only is it more profitable for the insurance business to give Copart the cost and the volume, but Copart's fees also scale with higher sales prices.
然后在卖家这边，他们经常使用一种叫做百分比激励计划的东西，我记得上次提到过。
Then on the seller side, they often use, and I think I mentioned that last time, something that is called percentage incentive program.
基本上，这意味着Copart的费用是汽车销售价格的一个百分比，买家费用通常在7%到13%之间，具体取决于车辆和买家的交易量。
So, basically, that means that Copart's fees is a percentage of the car sale price, and buyer fees typically range from seven to 13% depending on the car and the buyer's volume.
而且我们上次提到过，大约80%的费用来自买家这边，而不是保险公司。
And as we mentioned last time, roughly 80% of the fees come on the buyer's side, not with the insurance companies.
这背后的原因是，规模较大的保险公司只有大约十几家。
And the reason behind that is there are only about a dozen insurance companies of size.
所以这是一个非常集中的供应商群体，他们拥有相当高的议价能力。
So it's a very concentrated group of suppliers with pretty high negotiating leverage.
而在买家这边，有成千上万的拆解商、经销商和出口商。
Then on the buyer side, you have thousands of dismantlers and dealers and exporters.
所以这是一个高度分散的车辆买家群体，相应地，他们的议价能力几乎为零。
So it's highly fragmented set of vehicle buyers and there's little to no negotiating leverage correspondingly.
不过除了和保险公司合作的核心业务之外，还有第二个业务，叫做车辆销售。
But besides the core business with insurance companies, there's also a second business called vehicle sales.
那你能不能解释一下这个业务是什么，以及公司整体的收入构成是什么样的？
So maybe you can explain what that is and the overall revenue breakdown for the company, what that looks like.
就像你说的，绝大部分收入其实来自服务收入，也就是我们刚才讨论的那个业务。
So as you said, basically the vast majority of revenue comes from service revenue, which is the business that we just discussed.
之所以叫服务，是因为Copart承担了大量的物流工作，基本上把保险公司原本需要做的事情都接了过来。
It's called service because again, Copart is doing a lot of the logistics, and they basically take on what otherwise insurance companies would need to do.
所以他们就管这个叫服务。
That's why they call it service.
剩下的百分之十五左右的业务，就是他们所说的车辆销售。
The other 15 or so percent of the business come from what they call vehicle sales.
这部分业务里，Copart实际上会先买下车辆，然后通过自己的渠道卖出去。
So that's the part of the business where Copart actually takes ownership of a car and then sells it through its own channel.
这种模式在Copart的海外业务中更为常见。
So that model is a lot more common in Copart's international businesses.
而且，我们上次也聊过这个。
And again, we talked about that last time.
这主要是因为服务模式在美国已经成熟，但在大多数国际市场还没有被广泛采用。
Mostly, that's the case because the service model is established in The US, but it's not yet widely adopted in most international markets.
为了向国际客户展示在Copart上卖车的优势——这主要得益于拍卖带来的流动性——他们基本上会直接买下车，然后在自己拍卖会上卖掉，以此证明这种模式是可行的。
And to show international customers the advantages of selling on Copart, which again, primarily comes from the liquidity that the auction offers, they basically buy cars outright and then sell them as proof of the model in their own auction.
基本上，他们的目标就是随着时间推移，把这些客户转化成收费或服务模式，这对Copart来说利润要高得多。
And, basically, the goal is that over time, they can convert them into the fee or the service model, which is a much higher margin business for Copart.
而且这个策略效果还不错。
And this works quite well.
国际服务收入增长了近20%，而车辆销售收入则下降了近20%。
International service revenue is up almost 20%, while vehicle revenue is dropping close to 20%.
现在，你可能会想，为什么看到收入下降——这里指的是车辆销售收入——反而是好事呢？
Now, obviously, you might ask yourself why it's good to see revenue drop, in this case, vehicle revenue.
原因在于，这意味着国际市场确实在采用利润率更高的服务模式，而这正是我们希望看到的。
But the reason is that that means international markets are, in fact, adopting the higher margin service model, which is what you wanna see.
其实，在最近的一次财报电话会议上，他们拿德国举例，因为德国的模式和美国的模式完全不同。
Actually, in one of the latest earnings calls, they point out Germany as an example, because Germany's model is completely different from The US model.
所以，在这里，当一辆车被认定为全损时，保险公司传统上会支付给投保人重置价值减去残值。
So when a car is deemed a total loss here, the insurer traditionally pays the policyholder the replacement value minus the rack's residual value.
然后，投保人基本上保留残车，还得自己卖掉它。
And then the policyholder keeps the rack, basically, and has to sell it themselves.
这个模式挺糟糕的，因为到最后，你还得留着那辆全损车，还得自己处理卖掉它。
And that's a pretty bad model because, you know, at the end, you're still sitting on your total car, and you have to deal with selling it yourself.
不过我得补充一下，这也不是总是这样。
I should add, though, this is not always the case.
不幸的是，我爸爸最近撞了车，整个侧面都是大划痕。
Unfortunately for us, my dad just crashed his car recently, and the entire side is a huge scratch.
基本上整个侧面都需要换全新的车门。
And you basically need completely new doors for the entire side.
对于他来说，保险公司基本上不是直接给钱，而是把他送到修理厂，他们会帮他修好。
And with him, the insurance is basically not just giving him the money, but sending him to a body shop, and they will repair it for him.
这就是保险所覆盖的范围。
And that's sort of what the insurance is then covering.
我想问一下，这是不是和你之前在我们做的Auto1那期节目里告诉我的有关？
Just to to ask, is this all related to what I think you once told me in our Auto1 episode that we did a while back.
你说过很多车会去东欧国家做便宜维修，然后最终回到德国，却不提实际损坏情况。
You said that many cars go to Eastern European countries for cheap repairs and then eventually come back to Germany without a mention of the actual damage.
听起来你爸爸自己撞车没什么问题，但我的印象是这在德国是个比较大的问题。
It sounds like your dad had no problem damaging the car himself, but my impression is that this is sort of a bigger problem in Germany.
从技术上来说，可能发生的情况是，如果保险公司真的赔钱给他，那他会拿到钱。
What could have technically happened is that the insurance pays him the money, if they would have done so.
然后他会去波兰之类的地方做便宜维修，比如换车门。
Then he would get a cheap repair, let's say in in Poland for the doors.
然后他把车拿回来，手里还剩点钱，然后他就可以把车卖掉，而不提实际损坏情况。
Then he gets the car back, and he has some money, and then he could sell that car, you know, with sort of not telling about the actual damage.
这样就能赚到钱。
And that's how you can make a profit.
当然，这是违法的。
Of course, it's illegal.
不过，是的，这就是我们在Auto1那期节目里讨论过的。
But, yeah, that's what we discussed in the Auto1 episode.
Copart现在已经说服了德国一些最大的保险公司改用它的服务模式。
Copart has now convinced some of the biggest insurance companies in Germany to switch to its service model.
而且，由于Copart的市场份额不到10%，在欧洲实际上也没有真正的竞争对手，这可能是一个巨大的机会，因为你不会遇到像在美国那样的双头垄断局面，在那里保险公司基本上总是会平分业务量。
And since Copart has less than 10% market share, and actually no real competitor in Europe, this could be a huge opportunity because you don't have a duopoly, which will get you in The US, where basically, insurers will always split the volume.
在这种情况下，未来所有的业务量和增长都只会流向Copart。
In this case, all the volume and all the growth is only going to Copart in the future.
我们快速休息一下，听听今天赞助商的广告。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
在我二十多岁的大部分时间里，我对金钱的看法很简单。
For most of my twenties, my money story was simple.
赚得更多，其他的自然就解决了。
Earn more and the rest takes care of itself.
我的收入确实涨了，但开销也跟着涨了，只是我没注意到。
My income did go up, my spending went up right alongside it though I just didn't notice.
我的储蓄率悄悄从30%降到了20%，直到Monarch把所有账户放在一个屏幕上，让我看到趋势，我才发现。对于一个整天分析别人资产负债表的人来说，这有点讽刺。
My savings rate had quietly slipped from 30% down to 20% and I didn't catch it until Monarch put every account on one screen and showed me the trend, which sings a little for a guy who spends all day pulling apart someone else's balance sheet.
现在投资视图让我在一个地方看到整个投资组合，以及它相对于标普500的实际表现。
Now the investment view shows me my whole portfolio in one place and how it's actually doing against the S and P 500.
当有大额消费要来时，我会先规划好，看看自己是否在正轨上，免得来不及调整。
And when a big purchase is coming, I map it out first and see whether I'm on track before it's too late to adjust.
用Monarch写下你自己的财富故事。
Write your own money story with Monarch.
在monarch.com使用代码WSB，第一年Monarch Core半价，只要50美元。也就是说，在monarch.com使用代码WSB，第一年享受五折优惠。
Use code WSB at monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just $50 That's 50% off your first year at monarch.com with code WSB.
对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？
Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?
你并不孤单。
You're not alone.
而Plus500期货是一个很好的起点。
And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.
期货市场瞬息万变，通过Plus500，你可以探索石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。
The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
从加密货币到大宗商品，总有什么在发生。
From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.
这个平台操作非常简单，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。
The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.
你只需100美元就能开始，马上投入行动。
You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.
看到感兴趣的东西了吗？
See something interesting?
账户开通后，只需几次点击就能完成交易。
Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.
如果你还没准备好，可以用免费模拟账户练习一下。
And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.
没有风险，没有压力。
No risk, no pressure.
凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得比以往任何时候都更容易。
With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.
请访问plus500.com查看。
Check it out at plus500.com.
期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，并非所有申请者都能通过审核。
Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.
Plus500，就是带加号的交易。
Plus500, it's trading with a plus.
每周我们都会在节目中分析一些公司，并问同样的问题：管理层是否真的在高效运营这家企业？
Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?
对于目前大多数公司来说，诚实的答案是：那些领先的公司，正是那些把AI应用到日常工作中的公司。
Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.
这正是Netsuite Next的用武之地。
That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.
Netsuite Next 会在你最需要的时候给你提供洞察。
Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.
它能把日常任务和问题交给智能代理处理，而且你可以用日常语言问复杂问题，就像跟一个懂行的同事聊天一样。
It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.
但技术只是其中的一部分。
But technology is only part of the story.
AI 也在改变人们和团队协作的方式，而这种转变已经在发生。
AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.
今天你手里就有一份专家编写的商业指南。
Expert created business guide in your hands today.
这本指南叫《对齐：AI 如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以免费获取。
It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.
在里面，你会看到 AI 如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的业务从中受益。
Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.
我自己在用，你也应该试试。
I use this and you should too.
如果你的收入至少达到七位数，就免费获取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》，网址是netsuite.com/tip。
If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.
这份指南在netsuite.com/tip免费提供给你。
The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip.
netsuite.com/tip。
Netsuite.com/tip.
好了，回到节目。
All right, back to the show.
国际业务的利润率已经显著上升。
Margins are already up significantly for the international business.
而美国EBIT，也就是息税前利润，其实就是营业利润的另一种说法，涨幅不到4%，这并不特别令人振奋。
While US EBIT, which is, you know, earnings before interest and taxes, it's just a fancy term for operating profit, it's up less than 4%, which is not particularly inspiring.
而国际EBIT同比增长了50%。
While international EBIT was up 50% year over year.
所以我们看到Copart国际业务的营业利润正在爆发式增长。
So we're seeing an explosion in the operating profits from Copart's international business.
不过咱们接着往下聊，继续谈谈Copart的护城河怎么样？
But moving on here, how about we go ahead and continue the conversation and talk about Copart's moats?
我觉得我们之所以喜欢这家公司，并把它纳入投资组合，是有原因的，哪怕只持有了很短一段时间。
I think there's a reason we liked the business enough to include it in the portfolio, even if it was only there for a short while.
而且关于我们今天可能再次把Copart加回投资组合的决定，我觉得对我们来说最重要的是要弄清楚它的护城河是否依然完好。
And also regarding our decision to potentially add Copart again today back to the portfolio, I think the most important thing for us to know is whether the moat is still intact.
我觉得第一条护城河依然存在。
And I would say that the first one is still intact.
而且我觉得这是现在所有人都知道Copart的一个特点。
And I feel like it's one of the things that everyone knows about Copart right now.
那就是Copart的土地。
And it's actually Copart's land.
也就是他们拥有的所有那些场地。
So it's all the yards that they own.
我真的听人说过，他们从来没看过Copart。
I've literally heard people say they've never looked at Copart.
他们从来没看过这家公司。
They never looked at the company.
他们除了知道Copart拥有自己的土地之外，什么都不知道。这挺有意思的，因为我觉得每个关于Copart的推介一开始都会说，嘿，最大的优势，唯一的护城河就是他们拥有自己的土地，而竞争对手没有。
They don't know anything but the fact that they own their land, which is kinda funny because I think, like, every Copart pitch is initially starting with, hey, the one great thing, the one mode is they own their land and their competitors don't.
但即使这听起来有点重复，你也不能跳过这部分，因为Copart在美国是和IAA双头垄断的。
But you just can't skip that part even though it seems repetitive because, again, Copart operates in The US in a duopoly with IAA.
那是他们的主要竞争对手。
That's their main competitor.
而IAA并不拥有自己的土地。
And IAA doesn't own its land.
它是租地的。
It's renting the land.
而且，等我们后面更详细地讨论财务数据时，我们会看到，这是一个关键因素。
And as we'll see later when we talk about the financials a bit more, that is a major factor.
另外，能改造成大型报废车场的地块数量也是有限的。
There's also a limited amount of land that still can be turned into a massive salvage yard.
而且因为Copart在全球拥有250个这样的地点，其中大部分显然在美国，所以对于任何竞争对手来说，想要在场地扩张方面达到同样的规模，难度越来越大。
And since Copart owns two fifty of such locations globally, the majority of them obviously in The US, it's increasingly hard to, you know, get the same sort of expansion in terms of yards for any competitor.
经典的NIMBY运动，别在我家后院。
The good old NIMBY movement, not in my backyard.
你看，上次我们录这期节目的时候，我还没买房，现在我已经是房主了。
And look, last time we recorded this episode, I was not yet a homeowner, and now I am.
我可以告诉你，我现在可能比一年前更支持NIMBY了。
And I can tell you, I'm probably more team NIMBY than I was just a year ago.
我能想象，真的没几件事比在我家附近建一个那种大型报废车场更糟糕的了。
I could imagine really only a few things that are probably worse than getting one of those massive salvage yards anywhere near my house.
我相信每个人其实都这么觉得。
And I'm sure really everybody feels that way.
到目前为止，我只见过照片。
Up until now, only have seen photos.
但大约一个月后，我会真的去拜访你。
But in about, what is it, a month from now, I will actually visit you.
所以我会亲眼看到那个后院，我可以说，如果我有那样的后院，我也不希望附近有报废车场。
So I'll see the backyard in real life, and I can say that I think if I would have a backyard like that, I wouldn't want a salvage yard anywhere near that either.
而且因为每个房主都这么想，显然，拿到这些车场的许可证变得极其困难，而且未来只会更难。
And Because every homeowner thinks that way, obviously, the permits to get for those yards makes incredibly difficult, and it's only getting more difficult in the future.
而且，显然，如果那块地用于住宅或办公空间，也能卖个好价钱。
And, obviously, also, you can sell that land at a much better price when it's for housing or for office spaces.
所以真的没有什么动力去发放很多许可证，让土地变成废车场。
So there's just not really an incentive to still, you know, give a lot of permits for land that is then turned into a junkyard.
所以在某种程度上，这又是IAA无法再攻克的竞争优势，今天就是这样。
So to some extent, again, this is a competitive advantage that IAA can no longer attack, and that's true today.
但五年后，这一点会更加明显。
But it will also be even more true in five years' time.
我还想提一下，我觉得这挺乐观的，Jay Adair在他大约一个半月前作为CEO的第一次电话会议中说，Copart现在已经有足够的土地，不再需要花至少那5亿美元去购买更多土地了。
And I should mention, and this is kind of bullish in my opinion, that Jay Adair said in his first callback as a CEO, which has happened about a month and a half ago, that Copart now has enough land and no longer needs to spend at least this $500,000,000, which they currently are spending, to acquire more land.
所以我觉得这是个好兆头，因为如果你只看财务数据，5亿美元是一笔相当大的数目，即使对Copart这样规模的公司来说也是如此。
So I think that's a pretty good sign, because if you just look at the financials, $500,000,000 is quite a significant amount, even for a company the size of Copart.
比如说，去年Copart的自由现金流达到了12到13亿美元。
So for example, last year, Copart generated free cash flow of 1.2 to 1,300,000,000.
所以即使支出只削减一半，也就是节省2.5亿美元，这对Copart来说也是一笔相当可观的数目。
So even if, you know, the spend is just cut in half, which means $250,000,000 of savings, that's quite a meaningful chunk for Copart.
第二个护城河是我们在很多研究过的企业中都见过的，就是市场动态。
And the second moat is something that we've seen in many businesses that we looked at, and it's just about the marketplace dynamic.
他们在九十年代中期推出了网站和拍卖，就在eBay推出后没几年。
They launched a website and auctions in the mid nineties and just a couple years after eBay is when they did that.
那时候可以说，大多数报废车场还是靠现场拍卖，可能有个拿着记录板的人在监督。
And at that point, it's safe to say that most salvage yards were still running auctions in person with a guy in a clipboard probably overseeing things.
这就是为什么Copart在吸引客户方面有巨大优势。
And that's why Copart had a major advantage in onboarding customers.
他们算是数字化的先行者。
They were sort of a digital first mover.
我还记得第一次看Copart的时候，我就在想为什么没人尝试复制他们。
I still remember when I first looked at Copart and I kind of asked myself why no one even tried copying them.
就连IAA，也就是他们的主要竞争对手，也是直到疫情期间才开始真正涉足在线拍卖。
Even IAA, which again is their main competitor, only started really getting into online auctions during the pandemic.
所以我们说的可是差不多二十五年，将近三十年后的事了。
So we're literally talking twenty five, almost thirty years later.
我觉得这很好地说明了这家公司长期以来管理有多糟糕。
And I think that's just a pretty good example of how mismanaged that company has been for a very long time.
而且，你知道，那个网站以及虚拟竞价系统，算是Copart的一项创新，后来变成了巨大的优势，因为竞标者更多了，这就是你刚才描述的那种动态——竞标者越多，最终成交价就越高，比竞标者少的时候要高。
And, anyway, you know, the website and also the virtual bidding system, which has sort of been this, you know, innovation that Copart had, turned into a massive advantage because more bidders, and that's sort of the dynamic that you just described, More bidders mean the winning bid goes higher than, you know, if you have fewer people bidding on an auction.
价格越高，保险公司回收的钱就越多，这意味着Copart成了保险公司处理车辆最划算的地方，这就是我们之前聊过的。
And higher prices mean the insurance company recovers more money, which means Copart becomes the most profitable place for an insurer to dispose of a car, which is what we talked about earlier.
这又会吸引更多的保险公司，进而给Copart带来更多、更好的车源。
And that brings in more insurers, which in turn brings in more and better inventory for Copart's side.
如果你能拿到更好的车，而不是那些撞得最惨的，显然也会吸引更多的买家。
And if you can get better cars and maybe not the most wrecked ones, you will obviously also get more buyers.
这就是我们在所有覆盖的公司里一直在寻找的那种飞轮效应，我觉得可以说Copart是我们见过的所有公司里最强的飞轮之一，顺便说一句，我们覆盖的公司现在差不多有一百家了。
And that's sort of the flywheel that we're always looking for in all the companies that we cover, and I think it's safe to say that Copart is one of the strongest flywheels that we've ever seen in all of the companies we covered, which by now is close to a 100, by the way.
最后但同样重要的是，当我们考虑Copart的护城河以及那些让他们免受竞争影响的优势时。
And last but not least, as we think about Copart's moats and the advantages that insulate them from competition.
我们还要考虑规模经济，尤其是得益于他们停车场网络的密度。
We have economies of scale to consider, especially thanks to the density of their yard network.
基本上，网络越密集，当你需要拖车时，到下一个停车场的距离就越短。
Basically the denser the network, the shorter the distance to the next yard when you have to pick up and tow a car.
这有点像多米诺骨牌模式，尽量在人口密集地区多设点，这样就能尽可能靠近客户。
It's sort of like the dominoes model of trying to have as many locations as possible in population dense areas so that it's as close as you can possibly be.
交付时间，你知道，不到几分钟。
The delivery time is, you know, less than a few minutes.
这种便利性就是一种优势。
That sort of accessibility is an advantage.
在这种情况下，实际上两者兼有。
And in this case, it's it's actually both.
这既是成本优势，也关乎可靠性。
It's a cost advantage, but it's also about reliability.
我是说，时间上，我记得我们聊过卡特里娜飓风，那对Copart来说是个转折点。
I mean, time, I think we talked about Hurricane Katrina, which was a game changer for Copart.
那场飓风基本上让几十万辆车变成了报废状态。
It basically left hundreds of thousands of vehicles in salvage condition.
虽然报废车对Copart来说通常是好事，但一次性涌入太多，就像这些灾难事件中常见的那样，对他们来说并不好。
And while salvage vehicles are usually a good thing for Copart, too much volume at once, which tends to happen in these catastrophe events, is not that good for them.
因为你需要处理这些车，那就意味着你得租额外的场地。
Because you have to handle it, and that means you have to lease extra yards.
你得雇第三方服务，还要加班加点工作。
You have to hire third party services and work many overtime hours.
而且显然，这一切都发生在场地、第三方服务等成本比平时高得多的时候。
And obviously, all of that comes at a time when the costs for yards, for third party services, and so on are much higher than usual.
然后短期内，这意味着，你知道，所有这些车对Copart来说都是不赚钱的业务。
And then in the short term, that means that, you know, all of these vehicles, they're unprofitable volume for Copart.
这就是为什么竞争对手，尤其是IAA，当时不愿意多费力气去帮忙。
And that's why competitors, and especially IAA, didn't wanna go the extra mile to help back then.
而Copart选择了承担损失，尽可能快地提供帮助。
And Copart, they chose to absorb the losses and help as much as they could and as fast as they could.
实际上，我找到了Copart创始人威利斯·约翰逊的一句话。
And actually, I found a quote by Willis Johnson, who is the founder of Copart.
他说他们想证明自己不仅是最好的运营商，也是最可靠的合作伙伴。
And he said that they wanted to prove they're not only the best operator, but also the most reliable partner.
而且我觉得，如果你看看Copart至今还保留了多少客户，以及他们如何坚持与Copart合作，你就能看到二十年后这给它带来的信誉。
And I actually think if you look at how many customers Copart still has and how they stick with them, you can still see that credit that it gave to them twenty years later.
因为，再说一次，飓风发生在2005年。
Because, again, the hurricane happened in 2005.
这也正好是在Copart将整个业务转向在线拍卖后的一两年，所以这也是对新系统的一次巨大考验。
This was also just a year or two after Copart shifted the entire business to online auctions, so it was also a huge test for the new system.
而且结果很好，成千上万辆被水淹的汽车涌入市场，Copart的数字基础设施让全球买家都能竞拍汽车，正如你之前所说，这基本上是一项全国性的业务。
And it worked out well with tens of thousands of flood damaged cars pouring into the market, and Copart's digital infrastructure allowed buyers globally to bid on cars, which, as you said before, was basically a national operation.
现在突然之间，你面对的是整个世界。
Now suddenly, you have the entire world.
国际上，有买家会买这些车，这一切都有助于绕过实体拍卖法规带来的物流瓶颈。
Internationally, you have buyers for those cars, and all of that helped bypassing the logistical bottleneck of physical auction laws.
在那之后，Copart 成立了一个他们所谓的 CAT 响应团队。
And after that, Copart established what they call a CAT response team.
基本上就是一个灾难应对团队，当飓风来临时，可以更快更有效地提供帮助。
So a catastrophe team basically that can help further and faster when these hurricanes come up.
这也是 Copart 在之后近二十年里能够赢得市场份额的重要原因。
And so this was a major part of why Copart was able to win market share for almost two decades after that.
保险公司信任 Copart，知道它不仅是大批量销售的最佳场所，也是危机时刻可靠的合作伙伴。
Insurers trusted Copart and knew it was not only the best place to sell volume but also a reliable company in times of crisis.
对保险公司来说，在这些情况下迅速获得帮助非常重要，因为如果处理不当，他们可能会失去大量客户。
And it's really important for insurance companies to get quick help in those situations because that's exactly when they could lose a ton of customers if things are handled poorly.
所以，当你已经因为失去车甚至可能失去房子而焦头烂额时，你最不想的就是还要等几个月才能拿到保险公司的赔付。
So the last thing you want is to wait months for your insurance company to pay you while already struggling with losing your car and maybe your house.
所以如果在这种时候服务不好，保险公司很可能会失去成千上万的客户。
So if the service is bad in those times, you know, insurance companies, they're probably gonna lose thousands of customers.
所以这对他们来说确实是个软肋。
So it's a real point of vulnerability for them.
不过现在也许是个好时机，换个轻松点的话题，聊聊自从我们第一期节目以来发生了什么变化。
But perhaps this is maybe a good moment to change the tone a bit and start talking about what has changed since our first episode.
Copart现在有什么不同？
What is different now about Copart?
因为市场上有一种说法，说市场份额的格局已经变了，而IAA，也就是Copart最大的竞争对手，现在正在抢占市场份额。
Because there is the market narrative that market share dynamics have changed and IAA, which is Copart's chief competitor, is now gaining market share.
所以在上一期节目里，我们又聊到了IAA，以及它是如何慢慢缩小土地容量差距的。
And so in our last episode, again, talked about IAA and how it's closed the land capacity gap slowly.
大约五年前，Copart的土地容量还比IAA多70%。
About five years ago, Copart still had 70% more land capacity than IAA.
现在这个数字已经接近25%了。
Now that number is close to 25%.
我想补充一点，如果你在想，丹尼尔五分钟前刚说过，土地容量未来仍然是Copart的一大护城河。
And I should add, if you ask yourself, well, Daniel just said five minutes ago, that the land capacity will be a major moat for Copart even in the future.
当然，租地和买地来扩大规模是有区别的。
Obviously, there's a difference between scaling land because you lease it compared to scaling land or yards because you buy them.
不过我得说，显然他们过去几年做得相当不错。
Nevertheless, I gotta say, apparently, they did a quite good job for the last few years.
我觉得市场现在担心的是Copart在美国保险业务量上的放缓，这基本上是它的核心业务。
I mean, I think what the market is scared about right now is Copart's slowdown in The US insurance volume, so basically the core of the business.
这部分放缓，幸运的是，部分原因是因为今年没有大飓风，这对社会来说是好事。
Part of that can be explained, fortunately, because there were no major hurricanes this year, which is good for society.
但对Copart来说就不太好了。
It's not that good for Copart.
说到激励因素。
I mean, talk about incentives.
但即使排除自然灾害，年同比的整体下降幅度大约在3到5个百分点。
But even if you exclude natural disasters, the overall decline year over year would be about three to five percentage points.
而且，当Copart的业务量在下降时，IAA的业务量实际上增长了10%。
And while Copart's volumes are declining, IAA's volumes have actually been up 10%.
所以不只是被报废的车变少了，而且IAA还在从Copart手里抢市场份额，就像你提到的，这种情况大概有二十到二十五年没发生过了。
So it's not only that fewer cars are being totaled, it's also that IAA is taking share from Copart, which as you mentioned, didn't happen for, let's say, twenty to twenty five years.
而且IAA的管理层实际上在声称他们表现优于竞争对手，基本上就是指Copart，现在已经连续大约六个季度了。
And IAA's management is actually claiming they have outperformed competition, which basically means Copart for about six quarters in a row now.
那到底发生了什么变化，让保险公司突然转向IAA呢？
So what changed there that you have insurers suddenly switching over to IAA?
我是说，我们之前讨论的那些因素好像大部分都还在。
I mean, it seems like the most we've been discussing are still largely in place.
我觉得Copart并没有发生什么根本性的变化。
I don't think anything fundamentally has changed with Copart.
就算IAA的场地容量比以前大了，他们能不能在汽车拍卖上提供同样的流动性还是个问题，而流动性正是Copart的一大优势，他们有这种网络效应在强化整个飞轮。
And even if IAA has more yard capacity than it did in the past, there's a question of whether they can offer the same liquidity for car auctions, which is again one of the major benefits of Copart is that they have this network effect reinforcing the entire flywheel.
所以，到底有什么真的变了？
So yeah, what really has changed?
有没有什么特别的原因让保险公司选择IAA而不是Copart？
Is there any reason in particular that insurers are looking to choose IAA over Copart?
这基本上就是重新审视Copart时的核心问题，对吧？
That was basically the big question for revisiting Copart, right?
有什么变化吗？
Has anything changed?
有没有我忽略的地方，让Copart显得脆弱？
Is there anything that I I sort of missed where Copart is vulnerable?
我得承认，虽然存在一些问题，我们稍后会谈到，但我觉得实际上并没有发生什么重大变化。
And I gotta admit, I don't think while there are problems and we'll get to them, that anything major has actually changed.
即使你听信Jay Adair的话，他也非常直言不讳地表示，IAA根本没有显著改善其运营，这确实是目前市场的普遍看法。
And even if you listen and trust Jay Adair, he was quite vocal about not thinking that IAA has meaningfully improved its operations at all, which certainly is the market narrative right now.
所以，实际上只有一家保险公司把业务量转给了IAA，那就是Progressive。
So there's primarily one insurer that has shifted its volume to IAA, and that's Progressive.
历史上，Copart和IAA之间的业务量分配是相当不均衡的。
So the historical split of volumes between Copart and IAA is quite uneven.
通常，保险公司不会在两者之间五五分成，而是大约75%的业务量给Copart，25%给IAA，这完全是因为我们之前讨论过的Copart的各种优势。
So usually, an insurer is not splitting fifty fifty between the two, but more like 75% of the volume goes to Copart, and then 25% of the volume goes to IAA, just due to all the advantages of Copart that we have discussed earlier.
他们之所以一开始就分散业务量，而不是把百分之百的业务都交给更好的运营商Copart，是因为他们不想造成垄断。
So the reason why they split volume in the first place, and they're not just giving a 100% of the volume to the better operator, which is Copart, is that they don't want to create a monopoly.
因为很明显，如果那样的话，Copart就会获得很大的定价权，可以提高对保险公司的收费，因为他们没法再把业务转移走了。
Because, obviously, in that case, Copart would gain significant pricing power and could increase the fees for insurance companies because they couldn't shift the volume anymore.
现在Progressive跟行业里其他公司不一样，一直偏向IAA。
Now Progressive is going against the rest of the industry and has always leaned toward IAA.
所以他们把四分之三的业务量给了IAA，只给Copart四分之一。
So they send three quarters of their volume to IAA and only one quarter to Copart.
而且我确实听说他们最近把高达90%的业务量都转给了IAA。
And I actually even heard that they shifted as much as 90% of their volume to IAA recently.
对Copart来说，问题在于Progressive刚刚成为美国最大的汽车保险公司，每年新增250万到300万份保单。
And the problem for Copart is that Progressive has just become the biggest US auto insurer, adding two and a half to 3,000,000 policies per year.
嗯，我觉得这里的结构挺有意思的，基本上在供应端，供应商实力很强，能够进行一定程度的默契合谋，防止IAA或Copart形成垄断。
Well, I think it's a really interesting structure we have here where, basically, on the supply side, the suppliers are so strong that they're able to do a degree of tacit collusion and prevent either IAA or Copart from developing monopoly.
不管他们承不承认，这看起来像是故意为之。
Whether they admit it or not, it's something that is seemingly being done intentionally.
而且我觉得好消息是，主要只有一家保险公司在支撑IAA的这种优异表现。
And I think it's also good news that it's only primarily one insurer that's supporting this IAA outperformance.
但坏消息是，Copart也不太可能赢得Progressive的青睐，而Progressive是市场上增长最快的公司。
But the bad news is that Copart is also unlikely to win over Progressive and Progressive is the fastest growing player in town.
这现在确实是个问题。
That's a problem right now.
而且我觉得你甚至可以更进一步说，这里的二阶效应是，Progressive正在从其他保险公司那里抢占市场份额，而这些保险公司显然是Copart的客户。
And I think you could even go a step further and say the second order effect here is that Progressive is winning share from other insurers, obviously, which are Copart customers.
所以Copart基本上在流失业务，不仅是因为Progressive更倾向于IAA，把更多业务给了他们，还因为那些业务本来来自Copart的保险客户。
So Copart is basically losing volume, not only because Progressive tilts more to IAA and send more of their volume over to them, but also because that volume is coming from Copart's insurance customers.
所以他们正在把客户输给Progressive，然后Progressive又把更多业务转给了IAA。
So they are losing customers to Progressive, and then Progressive shifts even more of that volume to IAA.
这就是Copart正在经历的双重打击。
That's sort of the the double whammy that Copart is experiencing there.
你可能会问，那Progressive为什么倾向于IAA，甚至可能给他们更多业务呢？
Maybe you ask, okay, well, what's the reason for Progressive tilting towards IAA and potentially getting even more volume to them?
首先，我觉得他们合作了很长时间，IAA基本上给Progressive提供了优先服务。
So in the first place, what I think is that they have partnered for a very long time, and IAA has basically provided priority services to Progressive.
所以他们给Progressive提供更快的车辆回收时间和更好的停车场位置，而且愿意以相当低的利润率来运营Progressive的业务，这是很重要的一点。
So they offer them faster vehicle pickup times and better storage lot placements, and it's also willing to operate, and that's the major part, at quite a low margin on the Progressive business.
所以我的印象是，Adair至少间接提到，Copart不愿意给Progressive提供和IAA类似的费率，因为他没有特别点名。
So it was my impression that Adair, indirectly at least, mentioned that Copart simply wasn't willing to offer Progressive very similar rates compared to IAA because he didn't particularly name them.
但考虑到他们是唯一流失的业务，而且Adair提到Copart选择不和某一方做生意，这就是我从那次电话会议中得到的结论。
But given that they are the only lost volume and Adair mentioned that Copart chose not to do business with one party, that's sort of the takeaway that I had coming out of that call.
你甚至可以从利润率中看到，Progressive的业务似乎带来相当低的费率，因为Copart的汽车板块利润率是36%。
And you can even see in the margin that the Progressive volume seems to come with quite low take rates because Copart's auto segment has a margin of 36%.
如果你查看Ritchie Brothers（IAA的母公司）的文件，他们说汽车板块的利润率在15%到20%之间。
And if you go through the filings of Ritchie Brothers, which is the owner of IAA, they say that the auto segment is somewhere in the 15% to 20% range.
所以明显低于Copart的。
So significantly lower than Copart's.
当我听到这两家公司的利润率差异时，我首先想到的是贝索斯那句老话：你的利润率就是我的机会。
When I hear about the profit margin difference between these two companies, I think the first thing that comes to mind is that old Bezos quote about your margin is my opportunity.
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但如果IAA愿意接受更低的利润率，那我作为股东会非常担心Copart和IAA之间会出现价格上的恶性竞争。
But if IAA is willing to accept a lower margin, then I would very much worry as a shareholder about there being a race to the bottom on pricing between Copart and IAA.
我想巴菲特和芒格可能会说，只需要一个无情的竞争对手，就能毁掉一个原本非常好的生意。
I think as Buffett and Munger would probably say, all it really takes is one ruthless competitor to ruin what is otherwise a wonderful business.
所以现在，我们只是在讨论Progressive，但如果其他保险公司因为类似的原因开始把业务量转给IAA呢？
And so right now, we're only talking about Progressive, but what if other insurers start switching volume over to IAA for similar reasons?
那我们就面临更大的问题了。
Then we have a bigger problem on our hands.
我觉得这是个好观点。
I think that's good point.
其实这也是我一看就想到的问题。
It's actually also the one question that immediately popped up in my head when I looked at it.
但深入研究IAA的财报后，发现利润率差异大部分是由于折旧，相对于Ritchie Brothers（也就是母公司）收购IAA时的购买价格。
But after digging into IAA's filings, it looks like the majority of the margin difference is due to depreciation relative to IAA's purchase price when Ritchie Brothers, which again is the parent company, bought IAA.
然后还有股权激励，当然，现在又回到这一点，还有它支付的土地租赁费用，因为再说一次，它们并不拥有这些土地。
And then you also have stock based comp, and obviously, and this is coming back now, the leases that it pays for its land because, again, they don't own it.
而且这看起来就是利润率差异的主要原因，所以并不是Copart在收费上多收了。
And that appears to be the majority of the margin difference, so it's not that Copart is overcharging for fees.
而且就像我们之前说的，大部分费用是由买方承担的。
And also, as we said earlier, most of the fees are paid for on the buyer side.
所以你不一定是在向保险公司多收费，而保险公司才是你可能会失去大部分业务的地方。
So you're not necessarily overcharging the insurance companies, which is where you could lose most of your volume.
所以我不太担心其他保险公司会因为费用或价格之类的因素而选择IAA而不是Copart。
So I'm not too worried that other insurers will start to choose IAA over Copart because of fees or price or any of that.
因为，再说一次，Progressive选择IAA是因为他们也得到了特殊待遇。
Because, again, Progressive chose IAA because they also get special treatment.
而且从定义上讲，IAA不可能给太多客户提供这种待遇。
And sort of by definition, IAA can't offer that to too many customers.
而且你之前提到的其他模式也都还在。
And you set up all the other modes that we discussed earlier.
我是说，这些模式仍然存在，我不觉得它们会很快消失。
I mean, they are still in place, and I don't necessarily feel like they will evaporate anytime soon.
所以，如果你打算在未来二三十年里继续经营，而大多数保险公司确实如此，因为这是个长期生意，你仍然可以依赖Copart，因为如果你还不知道的话，他们拥有土地。
So if you plan to be in business for the next twenty or thirty years, and most insurance companies do because it's a long term business, you can still rely on Copart since, in case you didn't yet know it, they own the land.
而IAA呢，你有风险，因为许可证被吊销，土地会被挪作他用，尤其是城市越来越大，需要更多空间给人们居住，IAA的土地可能会逐渐减少。
With IAA, you have the risk that they will lose land over time because permits are being revoked, and land will be used in another capacity, especially when cities are getting larger and larger and you need more space for people to live.
而且，如果你相信Adair的话，他也不会认同市场那种说法，认为IAA在过去几年里运营得更好。
And, also, if you trust Adair, he, again, wouldn't agree with the market narrative that IAA has even become a better operator in the last couple of years.
这从外部很难判断，因为我们能做的基本上就是看看有多少保险公司从Copart转投IAA。
And that's very hard for me to judge from the outside because all we can do basically is just look at, hey, how many insurance companies go over from Copart to IAA?
看起来以前偏向Copart的那些公司并没有这么做。
And it doesn't look like any of the ones that favored Copart in the past have done that.
所以现在，我还是感觉挺好的。
So right now, I still feel quite good.
不过，如果情况发生变化，你看到保险公司真的换边了，那对Copart来说可不是好事。
However, should that change and you see insurers actually changing sides, that would be not good for Copart.
而且，你可能在事情真正发生之前看不到，等看到了，股价也已经反映了。
And also, you probably can't see that before it's actually happening, and then it's also priced into the stock.
你是说Copart拥有那块地吗？
Did you say Copart owns the land?
可能吧。
I might have.
我之前没听说过这个。
I haven't heard that before.
当然，当然是在开玩笑。
Obviously, obviously kidding.
不过，我觉得很让人安心的是，市场份额的流失主要是因为一个客户。
No, but it's I would think it's very reassuring that the share loss is primarily due to one customer.
如果我是股东，看到这种情况来自多个客户，那可能只是Copart开始慢慢失去市场份额的漫长时期的开始。
If I were looking at this as a shareholder and if you were seeing this coming from multiple customers, this might have been only the beginning of a long period in which Copart began to slowly lose market share.
即使他们名义上还是第一，这肯定会伤害股价，因为数字与同行相比会显得很糟糕。
Even if they stay number one on paper, it would certainly hurt the stock because the numbers would look terrible compared to the comps.
我觉得有趣的是，看看保险市场是否真的会再次成为Copart的顺风，而在过去几年里它一直是一个强劲的逆风。
And I think what will be interesting to see is whether the insurance market actually becomes a tailwind for Copart again after being a pretty strong headwind for the last few years.
为了让大家明白我在说什么，从2022年到2024年，因为疫情的关系，车险价格涨得非常非常厉害。
And just for context as to what I'm referring to between 2022 and 2024, sort of COVID related, auto insurance got brutally, brutally more expensive.
所以美国平均全险保费在三年内上涨了46%。
And so average full coverage premiums in The US rose 46% over three years.
所以如果你觉得车险贵得离谱，觉得自己是不是想多了，你并没有想多。
So if you thought that you were going crazy imagining that vehicle insurance was much more expensive, you're not crazy.
确实就是这么贵。
It absolutely is.
原因是保险公司被搞得焦头烂额，疫情后修车费用暴涨，各种短缺。
And the reason for that was like carriers got hammered, repair costs exploded after COVID, there's lots of shortages.
二手车价格也跟着暴涨，然后保险公司的综合成本率，这个术语很重要，大家要理解一下。
You had prices for used cars correspondingly explode, and then the insurance companies combined ratios, which is an important term to understand.
简单说，就是理赔金额加上保险公司的运营成本，除以他们收到的保费。
This is just the claims plus the operating expenses of the insurance business divided by the premiums that they receive.
如果你没听懂这些也没关系，你只需要知道，综合成本率如果超过100，就说明承保本身是亏钱的。
And so if you didn't understand any of that, all you need to know that is for a combined ratio, if the number is over 100, that means you're losing money on the underwriting itself.
所以这可不是什么好事。
And so that's not a good thing.
为了应对这种情况，让承保能盈利，综合成本率低于100，至少希望如此，你会看到很多公司大幅提高费率，以便重新盈利。
In response to that, so that they could underwrite profitably and have a combined ratio below 100, at least that's the hope, you saw a lot of these companies raise rates significantly to be profitable again.
但在高通胀和经济困难时期，很多人就是不愿意或者没能力承受这些保费上涨。
But in times of high inflation and a tough economy, many people just aren't willing or able to stomach those premium increases.
你基本上看到的情况是，有些人从全险降到只保责任险，这基本上意味着如果他们撞坏自己的车，就不会有索赔，车也不会送去拍卖。
What you basically saw happening is that some people just drop from full coverage to liability only, which basically means if they wreck their own car, no claim gets filed and no car goes to a salvage auction.
还有一些人把免赔额提得特别高，基本上所有的小事故和中型事故都不会上报。
And then some raise their deductible so high that basically all of these small and medium accidents never get reported.
还有一些人干脆不给车上保险了，虽然这严格来说违法，而且不只是严格来说，就是违法。
And then some just stop ensuring the car at all, even though that's technically illegal, and not only technically, it is illegal.
但你看数据的话，现在大约有三分之一的美国司机没有保险，或者至少保险严重不足。
But, I mean, if you look at the numbers, about a third of American drivers were now uninsured or at least materially underinsured.
跟2023年比，尤其是跟2017年比，那都快十年前了，这个数字涨了超过10%。
If you compare that to 2023, and especially up from, you know, 2017, which is almost ten years now, This number is up more than 10%.
而且CCC，你知道，这个领域最重要的数据公司之一，发现第三方索赔中无保险或保险不足的驾驶人索赔比例在三四年的时间里几乎翻了一番，去年年底达到了16%。
And CCC, which is one of the, you know, most important data companies in this field, found that the share of third party claims coming in as uninsured or underinsured motorist claims have nearly doubled in three or four years' time, so hitting 16% at the end of last year.
所以有很多数据点都表明，投保的车辆明显减少了，这对Copart来说显然是个很糟糕的数据点。
So there are just many data points showing that significantly fewer vehicles are insured, and there's obviously a pretty bad data point for Copart.
还有一个数据是，CCC还估计大约四分之一的维修现在是自费的，也就是说司机自己修车，而不是找保险公司。
And one more that I have is that CCC also reckons about a quarter of repairs are now self pay, meaning that the driver just fixes it themselves rather than involving the insurer.
他们甚至最近推出了一个先买后付的产品，我觉得只要涉及先买后付，你就能大概猜到问题有多严重了。
They've even launched, I thought that just recently, a buy now, pay later product for those people, which I think whenever buy now, pay later is involved, you sort of have an idea of how big a problem got.
而且Copart自己的数据也证实了这个趋势。
And Copart's own data is also proving this trend.
今年路上的车比去年多，但投保的车辆却下降了大约4%。
So there are more cars on the road this year than last year up to Copart, but insured cars have dropped about 4%.
所以我觉得这些数据点已经足够证明，这不仅仅是Copart的问题。
So I think those were enough data points to prove the point that this is not only a Copart problem.
尽管IAA在增长，但这主要是Progressive转移过来的故事。
Even though IAA is growing, this is primarily a story of Progressive shifting over.
总的来说，这里确实有一个周期性因素在起作用，导致实际上路投保的车辆少了很多。
Generally, there simply is a cyclical factor here involved for a lot fewer costs by actually on the road insured.
我们快速休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。
Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.
作为投资者，有一个方面我觉得没得到足够的重视，那就是作为投资研究员，持续进步有多难。
One part of being an investor that I don't think gets enough attention is how hard it can be to continue to improve as an investment researcher.
对我自己来说，我经常发现，当我跟行业专家或基金经理进行了一场很棒的对话后，脑子里全是想法。
And for myself, I often find that when I finish a great conversation with some industry expert or fund manager, my head is full of ideas.
但等我坐下来准备写下来的时候，一半想法已经没了。
But by the time I sit down to write it all up, half of them are already gone.
所以我就一直在用PlodNote Pro。
That's why I've been using PlodNote Pro.
这是个贴在手机背面的小设备，能录下对话，然后给我一份干净、可搜索的摘要。
It's a small device that sticks to the back of my phone and captures the conversation and hands me back a clean searchable recap.
关键点、后续行动，还有那些我通常想跟进的事情，它全都包含了。
And so the key points, the follow ups, the things I usually want to act on, it has all of that.
这样我就能专心待在现场，不用忙着记笔记，反正之后也看不懂自己写了什么。
And that allows me to stay present in the room instead of scribbling notes that I won't be able to read back later.
而且我的字是出了名的难看。
And I notoriously have very bad handwriting.
所以这真的改变了我和投资者沟通的方式，无论是准备阶段还是后续跟进。
And so it's changed how I prep and how I follow-up with investors.
它也是为那些认真对待对话的人设计的。
It's also built for people who take conversations seriously.
企业级的安全保障。
Enterprise grade security.
所以如果你在录和客户或行业联系人的通话，它也能搞定。
So if you're recording calls with clients or industry contacts, that's covered too.
所以如果你经常开会、打电话、做访谈，不妨去看看。
So if you live in meetings, calls, and interviews, we'll give it a look.
访问 plod.ai/wsb，使用代码 wsb 享受九折优惠。
Go to plod.ai/wsb, and use code w s b for 10% off.
网址是 plod.ai/WSB，优惠码是 WSB。
That's plod.ai slash WSB code WSB.
还有，录对话之前一定要先征得对方同意。
And always get consent before you record a conversation.
对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？
Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?
你不是一个人。
You're not alone.
Plus500期货是个不错的起点。
And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.
期货市场变化很快，通过Plus500，你可以交易热门资产，比如石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等等。
The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.
从加密货币到大宗商品，总有新鲜事发生。
From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.
这个平台用起来特别简单，随时随地都能在手机上交易。
The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.
你只需要100美元就能开始，马上投入交易。
You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.
看到感兴趣的东西了吗？
See something interesting?
账户开通后，只需几次点击就能完成交易。
Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.
如果还没准备好，你可以用免费模拟账户练习。
And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.
没有风险，没有压力。
No risk, no pressure.
凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得比以往任何时候都更容易。
With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.
去plus500.com看看吧。
Check it out at plus500.com.
交易和期货存在亏损风险，并非适合所有人，并非所有申请者都能通过审核。
Trading and futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.
Plus500，让交易更上一层楼。
Plus500, it's trading with a plus.
每周我们都会在节目中分析一些公司，并问同样的问题：管理层是否真的在高效运营这家企业？
Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?
对于目前大多数公司来说，诚实的答案是：那些领先的公司，正是那些把人工智能应用到日常事务中的公司。
Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.
这正是 Netsuite Next 的用武之地。
That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.
Netsuite Next 在你最需要的时候，精准地为你呈现关键洞察。
Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.
它能让智能代理处理日常任务和问题，还能让你用日常语言提出复杂问题，就像跟一位知识渊博的同事聊天一样。
It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.
但技术只是故事的一部分。
But technology is only part of the story.
人工智能也在重塑人们和团队协作的方式，而这种转变已经在进行中。
AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.
今天你手里拿的是一份专家编写的商业指南。
Expert created business guide in your hands today.
这份指南叫《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以免费获取。
It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.
里面会告诉你，AI如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的企业在其中获益。
Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.
我自己在用，你也应该试试。
I use this and you should too.
如果你的收入至少达到七位数，就去netsuite.com/tip免费获取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》。
If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.
这份指南在netsuite.com/tip免费提供。
The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip.
netsuite.com/tip。
Netsuite.com/tip.
好了，回到节目。
Alright, back to the show.
你提到了先买后付的模式，就是BNPL。
You mentioned the buy now pay later dynamic, BNPL.
你让我想，我们是不是应该很快在播客上聊聊Klarna。
You're making me wonder whether we should perhaps take a look at Klarna on the podcast here soon.
不过，还是回到正题，我想问你，你看到这个趋势有逆转的迹象吗，还是说未来几年只会更糟，给Copart的业务量带来更大压力？
But just, staying on topic, let me ask you, are you seeing any signs of this trend that you mentioned reversing or is it something that will only get worse in the years to come, putting more pressure on Copart's volumes?
很难说周期什么时候会逆转，但我认为有一些迹象表明我们可能很快就会看到逆转。
It's very difficult to say when the cycle will turn, but I think there are some signs that we might see a reversal soon.
去年个人汽车行业的综合赔付率是95%，而Progressive自己的个人车险业务实际上比他们在财报电话会议中公开设定的目标好了大约八个百分点。
So the personal auto industry ran a 95% combined ratio last year, and Progressive's own personal vehicle business is actually about eight percentage points better than the target that they publicly set in their earnings call.
所以你可以说，现在有了一些降价的筹码。
So you could argue that there's some ammunition to cut prices now.
顺便说一下，关于Progressive，我应该补充一点，我不认为他们赢得越来越多客户这个趋势是长期威胁，因为保险是一个竞争非常激烈的领域，这也是为什么你看到这些综合赔付率迟早会回到接近100。
And by the way, regarding Progressive, I should add, I don't see the trend of them winning more and more customers as a long term threat because insurance is a highly competitive field, which is also why you see these combined ratios sooner or later go back and closer to 100.
如果他们能领先几年，那已经是相当不错的表现了。
And if they outperform a couple of years, that's already pretty good performance.
通常来说，这种情况很难持续下去。
Usually, that's very unlikely to continue.
所以基本上，现在虽然可能还需要几个季度，甚至几年，你会看到转变，也许这些保险费率会成为Copart的利好因素。
So basically, would expect that by now, even though it can still take a couple of quarters, perhaps even years, you will see a shift, and perhaps these, you know, insurance rates become a tailwind for Copart.
而且你也会看到，Progressive并没有从竞争对手那里赢得越来越多的市场份额，至少长期来看是这样。
And you should also see that, you know, Progressive is not winning more and more market share from the competition, at least not in the long run.
然后随着我们看到保险费率降低带来的更大市场变化，我们也可能会看到在新的环境中谁赢得更多客户的变化。
And then as we see bigger market shifts with lower insurance rates, we might also see a shift in who wins more customers in that new environment.
我不知道会是哪家公司，但我相当有信心，很可能会是Copart的客户。
And I don't have a guess on which company that will be, but I'm quite confident most likely it will be a Copart customer.
不过总的来说，即使保险市场出现降温的初步迹象，至少还需要几个季度才能看到数字上的显著影响。
Generally, though, even with first signs of a less hot insurance market, it will probably need a couple of quarters at least before you see a meaningful impact in the numbers.
毕竟，费率仍然比几年前高出50%以上。
After all, the rates are still 50 plus percent higher than just a couple of years ago.
好的，那就这样吧。
Alright then.
我们之前提到过，只是稍微暗示了一下。
We alluded to it earlier, just to kinda teased it.
这是大家心知肚明的事，但我们为什么不聊聊CEO交接的事情呢？
It's the elephant in the room, but why don't we discuss the CEO transition a bit?
我得说，这确实让我很意外。
And I gotta say, it did come as a real surprise to me.
Copart有CEO任期很长的历史。
Copart has this history of very long CEO tenures.
对于任何NFL球迷来说，这有点像匹兹堡钢人队。
For anybody who's a fan of the NFL, it's sort of like the Pittsburgh Steelers.
他们让教练待很长时间，很久很久。
They keep their coaches around for a long, long time.
所以今年他们解雇迈克·汤姆林时，真的很震惊。
So it was a real shock when they fired Mike Tomlin this year.
但在创始人威利斯·约翰逊担任CEO近三十年后，杰伊·阿代尔接手并经营了公司十四年。
But after Willis Johnson, the founder served as CEO for almost thirty years, You had Jay Adair take over and then run the company for fourteen years.
他从1989年起就在Copart担任其他职位。
And he's somebody who had been with Copart doing other positions since 1989.
所以他和Copart的渊源很深，经验也很丰富。
So pretty long connection to Copart, plenty of experience.
然后就是Jeff Liao，他在2022年接任，之前和Jay共同担任CEO两年。
And then you had Jeff Liao, who took over in 2022 after serving as co CEO with Jay for two years.
而现在，仅仅四年后，Jay Adair将再次接任，Liao将卸任。
And now, just four years later, Jay Adair will take over again and Liao will step down.
据我所知，Jeff甚至不再担任董事会成员。
And as far as I know, Jeff will not even be a part of the board anymore.
所以他可能会担任类似特别顾问的角色，但我不太确定那具体意味着什么。
So he'll have something of a role like a special adviser, but I'm not really sure what that means.
这可能只是为了安抚他而已。
It might just be something to kind of placate him.
我不太确定你提到的NFL是什么意思，但你知道，对于了解德甲的人来说，相当于弗赖堡足球俱乐部，他们也喜欢长期留用教练。
I wasn't quite sure what your NFL reference means, but, you know, just for the people who know the Bundesliga, the equivalent would be FC Freiburg, who also likes to have coaches on for a very long time.
但是说到Copart的CEO们，要搞清楚这个决定到底是怎么做出来的，确实有点难。
But getting to Copart's CEOs, it is a bit difficult to figure out how exactly that decision has been made.
我的意思是，Jay Adair安排了一次电话会议，基本上就是我今天录音里一直提到的那次，是在第三季度财报电话会议和上周的第四季度财报电话会议之间。
I mean, Jay Adair scheduled a call, and this is basically the call I'm referring to throughout this recording today, between the q three earnings call and last week's q four earnings call.
而他们上市三十年，从来没这么干过。
And they never did this in the three decades of being a public company.
顺便说一句，我们是在9月3号之前录的这段。
And by the way, we record this just before September 3.
所以那个第四季度财报电话会议，就是我刚才说的上周那个，其实我们还没听呢。
So the q four earnings call that I just, you know, said last week's earnings call, we actually haven't yet listened to it.
如果有什么大事发生，你们一定要去看看我们的免费通讯，我会在节目说明里放链接，因为那边会有所有的新信息和更新，保证你不会错过任何东西。
And if anything massive should happen, you gotta check out our free newsletter, which I will link to in the show notes, because over there, we will have all the new information and updates included so you don't miss anything.
总之，在那次电话会议上，Jay Adair基本上特意说了，他和Jeff都同意这个决定，他们还是朋友，住在同一条街上，诸如此类的话。
Anyway, on that call, Jay Adair basically made sure to say that he and Jeff agreed on the decision that they are still friends, and they live on the same street and all of that stuff.
不过，虽然这些可能都是真的，但事实是，如果事情进展顺利的话，我觉得Jeff是不会下台的。
But while that's all true, probably, fact of the matter is that I don't think Jeff would have stepped down if things had gone great.
而且我也觉得杰伊·阿代尔和威利斯·约翰逊认为公司在某种程度上管理不善。
And I also think that Jay Adair and Willis Johnson thought the company has been mismanaged to some extent.
而杰伊是那个能扭转局面的人。
And Jay is the one who could turn it around.
否则，为什么不让两个人都参加电话会议呢？
Otherwise, why don't you have both people on the call?
我觉得那样会有所帮助。
I think that would have helped to some extent.
听起来杰伊·阿代尔也认为公司有些地方需要改进。
It also sounded like Jay Adair thought there's some stuff that needs fixing at the company.
如果他们真的住在同一条街上，那确实挺尴尬的。
I would say it's pretty awkward if they actually literally live on the same street.
气氛会有点奇怪。
Would be a bit of a weird vibe.
不过，是的，消息公布时市场下跌了8%，这有点令人惊讶，因为杰伊把公司的市值从20亿美元做到了300亿美元。
But yeah, the market dropped 8% when the news came out and that is kind of surprising since Jay took the company from a market cap of $2,000,000,000 to $30,000,000,000.
所以你会觉得，这位经验丰富的CEO和公司建设者回归，应该会带来更多的兴奋感。
So you would think that there should be more excitement about this veteran CEO and company builder coming back.
尤其是他还说过，他不会只是一个过渡期的CEO。
And especially since he also said he will not be a transitionary CEO.
他打算至少干十年，甚至更久。
He's planning to stay for a decade or even longer.
我觉得这更多是因为这次交接让人觉得公司状况不太好。
I believe it was more about the fact that this transition felt like an admission that things were not going that well at the company.
而且显然，在市场情绪本来就不好的时候，这没什么帮助。
And that doesn't help, obviously, when the sentiment is bad anyway.
再说，我们报道这家公司的时候，股价已经跌了大概30%。
And again, when we cover the company, it was already down, like, 30%.
当时，你知道，做出这个决定的时候，股价跌得更厉害，市场情绪也更差。
Back when, you know, this decision has been made, the stock was down even further, and the sentiment was even worse.
到现在，我得说股价已经回升了不少。
And by now, I should say the stock has recovered quite significantly.
从低点到现在已经涨了大约25%。
It's up about 25 from its lows.
而且，当消息刚出来、市场反应的时候，大家并不清楚杰伊·阿代尔到底会不会长期留任，还是说基本上只是过渡一下，这肯定不是什么好兆头，因为那样的话你就得再找新的CEO了。
And also, when the news first dropped and the market reacted, it wasn't immediately clear whether Jay Adair would actually stay on for the long term or basically would just, you know, be a transitional CEO, which definitely wouldn't have been a great sign because then you would need to look for a new CEO.
那更说明我们不信任杰夫·廖，也不认可他对公司的管理。
It would even more be a sign off we didn't trust Jeff Liao and what he did with the company.
现在情况有点不一样了。
Now that's a bit different.
而且，阿代尔也再次明确表示，他认为目前关于Copart的叙事是错误的。
And, you know, Adair has also been quite clear again that he thinks the current narrative on Copart is just wrong.
他非常强烈地反驳了那种认为有些客户对Copart不满或者可能转向竞争对手的说法。
And he pushed very hardly back against the idea that some customers are unhappy with Copart or likely to switch to competitors.
也是在那个电话会议上，他提到不再需要像以前那样在游艇上花那么多钱了。
And it was also during that call that he mentioned that spending on yachts is no longer necessary to, you know, at least the same extent.
所以我觉得未来我们会看到很多新东西。
So I think there's a lot of stuff that we will see in the future.
对于那具体会是什么，还不太清楚。
Wasn't too clear about what that will actually be.
我真的很想知道。
I'm really curious.
Adair有没有进一步说明未来的资本配置会是什么样子？
Did Adair say anything more about what capital allocation will look like going forward?
我问这个的原因是，自从我们上次看Copart以来，最重要的变化之一就是他们开始大规模回购股票。
And the reason I ask is because one of the most important changes since the last time we looked at Copart is that they started buying back stock massively.
这可能是一个非常积极的信号，尤其是考虑到他们在回购方面有着出色的记录，做得非常好，对股东来说是有增值的。
And that could be a really positive signal, especially given their fantastic track record with doing buybacks very, very well in a way that's accretive to shareholders.
所以，在连续五年没有回购之后，Copart启动了有史以来最大规模的回购计划，至少从绝对金额来看是这样。
So after actually having five straight years of no buybacks, Copart has initiated the biggest buyback program that it's ever done at least in absolute dollar terms.
在过去两个季度，Copart回购了超过16亿美元的股票，其中超过14亿美元是在上个季度完成的，而且价格看起来相当低。
And so Copart bought back more than $1,600,000,000 of stock in the last two quarters with more than 1,400,000,000 of that coming in the last quarter at what seems like fairly rock bottom prices.
所以基本上管理层在告诉你，他们认为这只股票非常便宜。
So basically what management is telling you is that they think that this stock is fabulously cheap.
我们用Copart作为回购的范例。
We use Copart as an example for how to make buybacks.
在我们社区的很多演示中，还有活动里都提到过。
In many of the presentations that we had in our community and also at at events.
所以最后他们终于又开始回购了，这可能，尤其是对这家公司来说，是一个非常积极的信号，表明股价很可能被低估了。
So finally, they started buying again, which probably, especially for this company, is a very good signal that the stock is most likely undervalued.
而且就像你说的，上一次真正大规模的回购是在十五年前。
And as you said, the last really meaningful buyback happened fifteen years ago.
所以很长一段时间里，他们都认为股价可能被高估了，至少相对于他们可以把资金投到其他地方来说，比如投到场地建设上。
So for the longest time, they thought the stock likely is overvalued, at least compared to where they otherwise could invest at capital, which, again, to some extent has been in yards, for example.
所以总的来说，对我来说，Copart很大程度上是一个信任管理团队的故事，无论是在资本配置方面，还是在做出正确决策以让Copart为电动车、自动驾驶汽车和国际扩张的未来做好准备方面。
So I think generally, to me, Copart is very much a story of trusting the management team, both in capital allocation and also in making the right decisions to position Copart for a future of EVs, AVs, and international expansion.
而且我可以提前透露一下，我们今天不会过多讨论自动驾驶汽车，但我们在第一集里已经聊了很多。
And I can already spoil, we'll not talk too much about AVs today, but we talked a lot about it in our first episode.
我觉得我们对此的看法基本没变。
And I think our take on that hasn't really changed.
我觉得风险还是一样的。
I think the risks are the same.
时间线也没变。
The timeline is the same.
所以如果你想了解我们对这个话题的看法，我建议你去听第一集。
So if you want to know our opinion on that topic, I would say you should listen to the first episode.
说到这个，管理层还有一个变动，就是Jen Pocke被提升为公司的总裁，她之前负责Copart的英国业务。
Speaking of which, another change in the management team is that Jen Pocke has been promoted to president of the company, and she ran Copart's U.
英国。
K.
那是最大、最成熟的国际市场。
Business previously, which is the largest and the most established international market.
我觉得这再次说明了国际扩张的重要性。
And I think this is just another pointer to the importance of the international expansion.
所以如果你问我他们未来会把大部分钱投到哪里，我觉得很大一部分可能会投到国际业务上。
So if you ask me where will they invest most of their money in the future, I think a significant chunk will likely go to the international business.
说到Copart的增长机会，Adair回来了，我们现在应该期待哪些战略上的变化呢？
Speaking of growth opportunities for Copart, with Adair coming back, what strategic shifts should we expect now?
你刚才提到了国际业务。
Mean, you just mentioned the international business.
所以我猜这将成为他和整个管理团队越来越重视的重点。
So I suspect that that will become an increasingly important focus for him and and the management team as a whole.
看起来Adair除了要回归常态和核心保险业务量之外，还想聚焦三大支柱。
It seems that there are three pillars that Adair wants to focus on besides a general reversion to the mean and the core insurance volume.
第一个就是你刚才提到的、经常讨论的国际业务。
So the first is the often discussed, as you just mentioned, international business.
再说一次，国际收入同比增长了14%。
Again, international revenue is up 14% year over year.
服务收入的增长尤其迅速。
Service revenue grew especially rapidly.
而国际业务的营业利润率，这是最关键的一点，去年提升了2.5到3个百分点，而且这种情况已经持续了相当长一段时间。
And the international operating margin, and this is sort of the most important point, increased two and a half to three percentage points last year, and that happened for quite a long while right now.
所以杰伊·阿代尔确实指出，在德国的突破让他们有信心，现在可以把这当作一个模板，进入其他市场，并在那里启动服务模式。
So Jay Adair really pointed out that the breakthrough in Germany makes them confident that they can now use that as a blueprint to go into other markets and sort of initiate the service model there.
目前，那里的收入总体增长了18%。
Again, currently, the revenue there is up 18 total.
所以如果我们假设它平均每年能增长15%，那对集团整体增长的贡献略低于三个百分点，对利润的贡献则更多一些，因为我们看到了利润率扩张。
So if we assume it can grow 15% per year on average, that contributes a bit under three percentage points to consolidated corporate growth and a bit more than that to the bottom line because of, you know, the margin expansion that we see.
第二个增长引擎是非保险业务。
A second growth engine is what happens in the non insurance business.
Copart有我们上次提到的Blue Car，面向车队和商业客户，主要提供定制服务，比如资产回收、仲裁和车况报告。
So Copart has, as we talked about last time, what is called Blue Car, which is for fleet and commercial accounts, which basically provides tailored services such as asset recovery, arbitration, and condition reporting.
他们还有一个叫cashforcast.com的网站，专门直接从公众那里买车。
And then they also have what's called cashforcast.com, which is just for buying cars directly from the public.
这曾经是一个增长动力，但最近放缓了。
And this used to be a growth driver, but it has slowed down recently.
阿代尔没有透露太多原因，但他确实说整个汽车业务在三到四个季度后会变得“非常不同”。
And Adair didn't give much insight into why that has been the case, but he did say that the whole car business will look, quote, very different in three to four quarters.
还是有点含糊，但至少他给人的感觉是知道该怎么做，也知道未来怎么应对增长。
Again, it's kind of vague, but, you know, at least he gives the impression of knowing what to do and how to handle growth in the future.
上次我们还聊到他们所谓的Purple Wave，那是一个在线拍卖平台，专门拍卖重型设备、农用机械、工程车辆这类东西。
Another thing that we also talked about last time is what they have called Purple Wave, which is an online auction site for heavy equipment, agriculture, construction vehicles, those sort of stuff.
其实他们之前就已经收购了这家公司。
They actually acquired it a while ago.
还有NPA，全称是Natural Power Spot Auctions，做的也是类似的事情。
And then NPA, which is short for Natural Power Spot Auctions, which is doing the same.
所以又回到拍卖的话题，这次是摩托车、水上运动车辆比如摩托艇之类的，还有雪地摩托、房车和高尔夫球车。
So we're talking auctions again for motorbikes, water sport vehicles like jet skis or something like that, and even snowmobiles and RVs and golf carts.
这些都是些特殊的东西，我觉得上次我们也提过，短期内肯定不会被自动驾驶汽车取代。
So all sort of special things that I think we mentioned last time would definitely not be replaced by AVs anytime soon.
最后一个增长支柱就是他们所谓的科技服务。
And then the last growth pillar would be what they call technology services.
Copart基本上运营着一个叫Title Express的产品，这个产品的作用是从银行或车主那里拿到车辆所有权，然后结清未偿还的贷款。
So Copart basically operates what it calls Title Express, and that's a product for getting the vehicle title released from the bank or the owner, then paying off the outstanding loan.
这其实是介于保险和整个汽车行业之间的一种商业模式。
And that's part of a business model that sits somewhere between the insurance and the whole car business.
那你觉得他为什么说整个汽车行业在几个季度内可能会有很大的变化？
So do you have any idea why he would say that the whole car business could look materially different in a couple of quarters?
我是说，你觉得他们是在计划收购或者类似的事情吗？
I mean, do you think they're planning an acquisition or something similar?
我觉得老实说，我也不太确定。
I think the honest answer would be, I'm not sure.
我觉得这个行业的疲软有一部分是周期性的，主要是因为优质三年期租赁归还车辆的数量是十多年来最低的。
I think there's a cyclical element to the weakness in the sector, which is mainly the supply of, at least quality, three year old lease returns is at its lowest in over a decade.
因为，你知道，就像我们之前提到的疫情一样，在2021年和2022年的芯片短缺期间，几乎没有新车被生产出来，这个问题会随着时间自行解决。
Because, you know, similar to what we said earlier in terms of the pandemic, barely any new cars got built during the chip shortage that we saw in 2021 and 2022, and that should take care of itself over time.
所以我觉得这是其中的一部分原因。
So I think that's part of it.
然后我不太清楚Copart的具体计划，但也许我们会看到分拆或者类似的动作，因为看起来Copart在整体成本方面的模式和声誉并不像它在核心残值业务中那样强大。
And then I'm not sure what Copart plans are directly, but perhaps we could see a spin off or something similar because it appears that Copart just doesn't have the same sort of mode and reputation in the whole cost as it has in the core salvage business.
因为，再说一次，在你们自己的残值车业务里，你们面对的是IAA，他们在土地上赢，在流动性上赢，在国际买家基础上也赢。
Because, again, in your own salvage, you're up against IAA, and they win on land, they win on liquidity, and they also win on the international buyer base.
但说到整车业务，那完全是另一套竞争格局。
But then when it comes to the whole car business, that's just a completely different competitive set.
所以你们面对的是，比如Monarch，这家公司我们上次也用过一些数据，还有很多这样的实体拍卖网络，它们经营了几十年，人们真正想买一辆好车，不是撞坏的，通常你在Copart上买到的是那种车。
So you're up against, you know, Monarch, which is a company that we also used for some data last time, and just many of these physical auction networks that are in the business for decades that people know when they actually wanna buy a good car, which is not wrecked, which is usually what you get on Copart.
所以我不太清楚。
So I don't know.
我我能想象公司会有一些更结构性的变化。
I I could imagine some more structural change to the company.
我记得几个季度前，在一次电话会议上，当时的唯一CEO Jeff Liao被问到，品牌是否需要换一个，因为，再说一次，Copart在消费者中并不知名。
I think some quarters ago, in a call, Jeff Liao, who was back then sole CEO, was asked whether the brand would need to be a different one since, again, Copart is not well known to consumers.
而且如果是这样，他们主要还是以事故车和损坏车闻名。
And if so, they're, again, primarily known for wrecked and damaged cars.
他说，也许他们需要一个独立的品牌，那可能，再说一次，是一个分拆，但这只是我个人的猜测。
And he said that, you know, perhaps they would need a sought free brand and that could be, again, a spin off, but that's just pure speculation on my end.
那Purple Wave和宾州的National Power Sports Auctions是怎么回事？
So what's the deal with Purple Wave and National Power Sports Auctions in PA?
它们是不是也被这个相当艰难的市场环境拖累了，还是说表现还不错？
Did they also get dragged down by this pretty tough market environment or are they performing well?
不幸的是，Copart没有透露它们的具体数字，但他们确实提到，他们专门为Purple Wave扩大了销售团队，并做出了一个战略决策，将业务扩展到全国，优先考虑GMV最高的市场。
Unfortunately, Copart doesn't disclose specific numbers for them, but they did mention that they expanded the sales force for Purple Wave specifically and made sort of a strategic decision to expand the business coast to coast, prioritizing the highest GMV market.
所以我猜这意味着业务表现不错，或者至少他们对业务的未来有信心。
So I just assume this means the business is doing well or at least they're believing in the future of the business.
但这似乎也不是核心重点，因为Adair在电话会议上公开说过，他还没有在那个业务上花太多时间，他会先专注于核心保险业务，然后随着时间的推移再去处理Purple Wave、NPA这类事情。
But it doesn't appear to be a core focus either because Adair, again, has publicly said on the call, he didn't yet spend much time on that business and he would focus on the core insurance business first, and then over time go to, you know, Purple Wave, NPA, and those sorts of things.
我一直在想Copart，还有别的事想问你。
I've been thinking about Copart a lot and there's something else I wanted to ask you about.
就是几天前，有传言说Copart可能有意收购CCC Intelligent Solutions。
And and that is that just a couple of days ago, there was a rumor spreading that Copart is perhaps interested in buying CCC Intelligent Solutions.
说实话，我对这家公司了解很少，但听起来它可能有助于Copart业务的数据方面。
And admittedly, it's a company I know very little about, but it sounds like perhaps it could help with the data aspect of Copart's business.
所以这笔交易可能跟阿代尔在七月份跟投资者通话时说的那些含糊其辞的话有关。
And so the deal might be related to one of these vague comments that Adair made in his July call with investors.
这倒是个好观点。
It's actually a good point.
可能是其中之一。
It might be one of those.
不过我们得说，至少在录制这段节目的时候，这个潜在的收购还只是传闻。
Although we should say that at the time of this recording at least, the potential acquisition is just a rumor.
我觉得这个传闻是因为彭博社报道说Copart正在和CCC谈判，但他们不是唯一的竞标者。
I think it was started because Bloomberg reported that Copart is in talks with CCC, but they're not the only bidder.
他们基本上是在跟几家私募股权公司竞争，包括GTCR和Veritas Capital。
They are basically up against a couple of private equity firms, including GTCR and Veritas Capital.
而且Copart的管理层给我的印象是，他们不会为这样的交易支付过高的价格，但如果私募股权公司已经在竞争，他们可能不得不这么做。
And Copart's management doesn't strike me as the sort of people would overpay for such a deal, which they might need to if PE firms are already in competition.
但说到CCC以及他们具体做什么，我今天其实已经间接提到过他们几次了。
But getting to CCC and what they actually do, I've actually indirectly mentioned them today a couple of times.
我不知道你有没有意识到，但我今天引用的很多数据其实都来自CCC。
I don't know if you realize that, but many of the data points I cited here came from CCC.
所以基本上，这是一家1980年在芝加哥成立的公司。
So, basically, it's a company that was founded in 1980 in Chicago.
他们构建了一个软件层，连接了车祸后涉及的所有相关方。
And yet they built a software layer that sits between everyone involved after a car accident.
所以如果你在美国出了车祸，很大程度上，决定车辆是维修还是报废的评估，就是在CCC的软件里生成的。
So if you crash your car, in The US primarily, there's very high chance that the estimate determining whether it gets repaired or written off is generated in CCC's software.
他们大约有300家保险公司客户，其中包括前30名中的27家。
And they have something like 300 insurance companies, including 27 of the top 30.
所以基本上，所有大型保险公司都是他们的客户。
So, basically, all of the big insurance companies are their customers.
然后他们还有大约3万家维修店、数千家零部件供应商，还有汽车制造商。他们拥有一个庞大的数据库，我读到过，里面有超过3亿条历史理赔记录，这正是让损伤评估如此准确的原因，也让他们的数据对像Copart这样的公司非常重要。
And then they have something like 30 k repair shops, thousands of parts suppliers plus, you know, the car manufacturers, And they've got a huge data library of, you know, I read more than 300,000,000 historical claims, which is what makes the damage estimates so accurate, and also their data so important for companies like Copart, for example.
总结一下，Copart的核心业务显然依赖于保险公司决定报废车辆而不是维修车辆。
To recap, Copart's core business is clearly dependent on insurers deciding to total cars rather than repair them.
但现在Copart想收购这家公司，而这家公司本质上是在帮保险公司决定车辆是否报废。
But then now you have Copart wanting to buy the company that essentially helps insurers to decide whether a car is totaled or not.
对，基本上就是这样。
Yeah, that's basically it, yeah.
我得说，这听起来有点不太光明正大，如果你问我的话。
I gotta say it's a bit, it sounds a little shady if you ask me.
感觉像是明显的利益冲突。
Mean, feels like a pretty flagrant conflict of interest.
我猜Copart不会故意或明目张胆地影响算法，让CCC把更多车标记为报废，尽管这对他们的业务有好处，因为那听起来非常违法，而且会毁掉CCC的中立性和信誉，从而毁掉它的整个产品。
I assume Copart wouldn't intentionally or blatantly influence the algorithm to push CCC to label more cars as being totaled, even though that would be good for their business because that sounds very illegal and would destroy CCC's neutrality and credibility and thereby really its entire product.
但话说回来，这至少会被监管机构盯上吧。叫我悲观主义者也行，如果这种合谋或市场操纵不可能发生，或者不是Copart想达到的目的，那我想问你的就是，他们收购CCC到底想得到什么？
But again, it feels like something that would be at a minimum flagged by regulators and call me a pessimist, if this of collusion or market manipulation is not possible or not what Copart wants to achieve, then my question for you is what exactly do they wanna gain by buying CCC?
我觉得我得先说清楚，我现在说的这些都只是我的个人看法，是我临时形成的，因为消息刚出来，我还没来得及深入研究CCC的业务和潜在的协同效应。
I think I should preface that everything I say now, is just an opinion that I sort of have, you know, formed on short notice because the news more or less just dropped, I haven't yet had a chance to actually deeply research what CCC does and what the potential synergies were.
这笔交易如果真的发生的话，大概就是这样。
It's something like that deal would actually happen.
但我确实看到Copart有很多潜在的好处，这些好处跟改变算法没什么关系，或者至少关系不大。
But I do see many possible advantages for Copart that have nothing or at least very little to do with changing the algorithms.
我觉得第一个好处显然是更快的周转时间，因为在场天数对Copart和IAA这样的公司来说是最重要的指标之一。
I think the first one would obviously be faster cycle time, because days in the yards is one of the most important metrics for companies like Copart and IAA.
当CCC的全损触发直接连接到Copart的调度系统时，这些天数显然可以缩短。
And those could obviously be reduced when CCC's total loss trigger directly wires costs to Copart's dispatch.
也许我有点太悲观了，但说到数据，正如你提到的，CCC有数百万的历史理赔记录，而Copart有其中数百万辆车的实际拍卖结果。
Maybe I was being a little too cynical, but talking about data, as you mentioned, CCC has millions of historical claims and Copart has the actual auction outcomes for millions of those cars.
所以我能理解，把这两者结合起来，可能是他们能构建的最好的预测受损车辆售价的商业模式。
And so I can see why combined that would be maybe the best business model that they could build for predicting what a damaged car will fetch.
而且，既然更高的拍卖回报让全损更有吸引力，更准确的模型就能处理更多的全损案例。
And given that higher auction returns make totaling more attractive, a more accurate model services more total losses.
我明白你的意思，这确实能融入现有的Copart飞轮。
I do see your point on on how it can fit into the existing Copart flywheel.
即使我们假设其中一些事情因为监管问题而无法实现，你仍然会得到一个年收入约十亿美元、96%经常性订阅收入、低双位数现金流利润率的业务，而且这些数字已经调整了股权激励，我认为未来他们还有潜力提高利润率。
And even if we would assume that some of these things wouldn't be possible, given regulatory concerns, I mean, you would still get a business that has about a billion dollars in revenue, 96% recurring subscriptions, low teen cash flow margins, which, you know, at that point, they are adjusted for SBC, I think they have some potential of seeing higher margins in the future.
而且这还能起到一种天然的对冲作用，因为它的运作方式和Copart正好相反。
And it will also serve as a sort of natural hedge because it works the exact other way than Copart.
比如说，如果全损频率继续上升，Copart会受益，而CCC的维修业务量就会减少。
So if total loss frequency, for example, keeps climbing, Copart wins and CCC's repair volume shrinks.
但如果情况反过来，那么CCC的维修业务会蓬勃发展，而Copart的供应则会收紧。
But if that reverses, then you have CCC's repair business boom and Copart supply tightening.
所以，显然，由于Copart会是业务中更大的一部分，这是一个小的对冲，至少是那种你能看到收购带来某种优势的动态。
So, obviously, since Copart would be the much larger part of the business, it's a small hedge, at least the sort of dynamic where you could see some sort of advantage from that acquisition.
但当然，要让它有意义，你得在合适的价格上入手。
But, of course, you would need to get at the right price for it to make any sense.
而且，再说一次，这可能很难，因为私募股权公司已经参与了竞标过程。
And, again, that might be difficult since PE firms are already involved in the bidding process.
而且我认为目前CCC的股价在过去一年里下跌了大约27%，接近30%，而价格与经营现金流的比率已经从30多倍下降到大约10倍。
And I think currently, CCC's stock is down about 27%, so close to 30% over the past year, and price to operating cash flow has declined from over 30 to about 10 times.
它之所以这么便宜，原因就是我们经常提到的，营收增长已经放缓到大约10%。
And the reason it is that cheap is, well, we talk about it so often, the top line growth has slowed to around 10%.
之前它的增长速度更快。
It was a faster grower before that.
显然，这点不用我多说。
And obviously, don't need to tell you about it.
如果你还没注意到的话，现在市场对AI取代软件整体感到有些紧张。
The market is a bit nervous right now if you haven't yet noticed about AI displacing software generally.
这可能是今年最轻描淡写的说法了。
Might be the understatement of the year.
不管怎样，这笔交易都会是Copart有史以来最大的一笔，这一点本身就非常引人注目。
What would make this remarkable either way is that this would be by far the biggest deal Copart has ever done.
作为背景，Purple Wave的交易金额在1亿美元左右，而NPA那个摩托车拍卖业务，估计也差不多在这个范围。
For context, the Purple Wave deal was in the $100,000,000 range and for NPA, that that motorbike auction business, was estimated to be around in that same range as well.
所以这笔交易至少是45亿美元，基本上相当于Copart的全部现金储备。
So this would be a minimum of a $4,500,000,000 deal, which is essentially Copart's entire cash pile.
不过我相信他们会通过举债来完成收购，而不是把现金全花光。
Although I'm sure they would raise some debt for the acquisition instead of burning all their cash.
重点是，这笔交易非常重大。
Point being, this is very substantial.
而且从历史上看，Copart 不是那种喜欢举债的公司。
And historically, Copart is not the type of company that likes to raise debt.
但显然，在这种情况下，他们必须举债，因为你肯定不会为了收购而把全部现金都花光。
But obviously, in this case, they would need to because you would definitely not burn through all of your cash pile just to make an acquisition.
另外，再提一次 Adair 的那次电话会议，他确实在那次会议上提到，如果出现合适的机会，他也会举债。
And also, referencing the Adair call one last time, he did mention on that call that if the right opportunity comes up, he would also raise debt.
所以他是愿意这么做的。
So he would be open to it.
你知道，这只是猜测，但也许他当时说那句话的时候，心里想的就是 CCC。
You know, it's just a speculation, but perhaps he had his mind on CCC when he said that back then.
好了，这期节目到了有趣的环节，我觉得我们应该进入估值部分了。
Well, it's that fun part of the episode where I think we should transition to the valuation section.
其实，我对这部分特别好奇，因为之前提到过，我们之前短暂持有过 Copart 的股票。
And actually, I'm really curious about this one because as mentioned earlier, we briefly owned Copart before.
所以我们俩长期都是这家公司的粉丝，而且现在价格比去年还低，如果你最后又建议买入，甚至这次打算长期持有，我也不会太惊讶。
So we're both fans of the business long term and with the price being even lower than it was last year, I wouldn't be too surprised if you ended up recommending buying it again and maybe this time for the long haul.
说到这里，我还记得我们当初买这家公司主要是因为看中它的质量，而且预期回报刚好达到我们设定的12%目标，也就是你模型里的最低回报率。
So with all that said, I also remember that we primarily bought the business due to our perception of the company's quality And the expected return though just barely met the 12% target that we have or hurdle rate in your model last time.
那现在有什么变化吗？
So has anything changed now?
你觉得按现在的价格买入，更有可能获得超过我们最低回报率的收益吗？
Do you feel like buying the stock at these prices is more likely to deliver a return that clears our hurdle rate.
嗯，在这种情况下，我们得明确说，不仅仅是价格下跌了，基本面其实没变。
Well, in this case, we clearly have to say that it was not only the price that went down, but the fundamentals were unchanged.
但实际上营收增长明显放缓了，价格也跟着调整了，对吧？
But you actually had revenue growth come down significantly, and the price adjusted, right?
所以这和去年的谷歌不一样，谷歌是基本面没变，估值倍数下降，因此股票变得更有吸引力。
So it's not the same as, for example, Google last year, where fundamentals are the same, the multiple drops, and therefore, the stock gets more attractive.
在这种情况下，如果只看股价，股票可能看起来更有吸引力，因为它比一年前便宜了。
In this case, the stock might look more attractive because it's cheaper than a year ago if you just look at how much share costs.
但增长也放缓了，所以这和谷歌的情况有点不一样。
But growth also slowed down, so it's a bit different than, for example, the Google situation.
所以我更新了之前的DCF模型，结果说实话不是特别有说服力。
So I've updated the DCF model than I did, and the result is not totally convincing, I gotta say.
我的意思是，如果总收入增长率在5%到6%左右，这和历史相比算是低的，但现在也几乎没什么增长，再加上一些回购带来的每股收益增长9%，以及一些轻微的利润率扩张——Copart在过去二三十年里基本上一直如此——那么从今天的价格来看，预期回报率大约是10%，假设退出倍数是20倍。如果你只看历史，这个倍数可能看起来便宜，但我确实认为这只股票已经被替代了。
I mean, at total revenue growth of about five to 6%, which is low compared to the history, but it's also close to none right now, an EPS growth of 9% thanks to some buybacks and then some slight margin expansion, which Copart has seen basically throughout the last two or three decades, then the expected return would be about 10% from today's prices, assuming an exit multiple of 20, which, again, if you would just look at the history, it might seem cheap, but I do think the stock has been replaced.
而且在某种程度上，我们不会再看到40倍或50倍的市盈率了。
And to some extent, we won't see multiples of 40 or 50 x again.
我觉得那不太可能。
I think that's kind of unlikely.
不过这次我还做了一个反向DCF。
However, this time, I also did a reverse DCF.
反向DCF基本上就是，嗯，你把DCF倒过来做。
And in a reverse DCF, you basically well, you do the DCF backward.
我觉得这是对你所做事情的一个简单描述。
I would say that's the easy description of what you're doing.
所以思路就是，假设现在的股价是完全合理的，然后反推这家公司需要达到什么样的增长率。
So the idea is that you assume today's price is exactly right, and then you solve for the growth rate of the business.
也就是说，这个增长率就是市场根据当前对Copart的估值所隐含的预期增长率。
So, essentially, the growth rate the market currently expects Copart to achieve based on the price that the market values the business at today.
既然我在常规DCF模型里假设的增长率是中等个位数，而且结果显示目前股价基本合理，那么反推出来的市场预期增长率大概在5%左右，对应高个位数到低两位数的回报率，这也不意外。
Now, given that my growth rate assumption in the normal DCF has been in the mid single digits and the results have been that the stock is more or less fairly priced today, it shouldn't come as a major surprise that the growth rate the market currently expects for a high single digit to low double digit return based on the reverse DCF is about 5%.
给大家简单总结一下，我觉得就是如果未来五年增长率维持在中等个位数，加上回购等因素，你大概能获得8%到10%的回报。
Just to give folks a little easy summary, I think it would be that at a mid single digit growth rate over the next five years, you could probably expect an eight to 10% return complemented by buybacks and things like that.
如果Copart能回到两位数的营收增长，那么年化回报可能会达到中高十几甚至更高，相当可观。
And should Copart return to double digit top line growth, you would probably see a very compelling return in the mid to high teens on an annualized basis.
所以如果Copart基本维持目前的增长率，回报大概会和市场持平，没什么特别之处，这其实就是我们说一只股票估值合理的意思。
And so if Copart basically stays at current growth rates, returns will be probably in line with the market, nothing special, which is really what we mean when we say that a stock is fairly valued.
而如果按目前的增长率，基本接近零增长，那未来几年你显然会大幅跑输市场。
And at current growth rates, which are close to nothing, basically, obviously you would massively underperform the market in the next couple of years.
不过，是的，我觉得目前的情况就是这样。
But yeah, I think that's what it currently looks like.
通常呢，我们会给不同的结果设定不同的可能性。
And usually, what we do is we sort of have a different, you know, likelihood assessed to a certain outcome.
就是熊市、基准和牛市三种情况。
So, you know, a bear, a base, and a a bull case.
在这种情况下，我觉得他们真正实现并回到两位数增长率的可能性挺高的。
In this case, I think the likelihood of them actually achieving and going back to these double digit growth rates is kind of high.
所以我大概会说，有40%的可能性会发生这种情况。
So I would probably say there is, you know, a 40% likelihood that happens.
然后基准情况，也就是中个位数回报，也是40%，还有20%的可能性是他们真的停留在0到3%的增长率。
Then the base case, which would be mid single digit return, is also 40%, and then you have a 20% likelihood of them actually staying in this zero to 3% growth rate.
所以我觉得这对那些非常喜欢这家公司、一直想拥有它的人来说，可能是个不错的机会，他们可能觉得现在是个好时机，因为我们正处于周期性低点。
So I think it likely is a pretty good opportunity for people who very much like the business, always wanted to own it, and sort of feel like now is a good opportunity because we are at these cyclical lows.
就我个人而言，我还没到那一步。
Personally, I'm not quite there yet.
我不觉得Copart现在是我在投资组合中看到的那种机会，让我立刻觉得得卖掉其他公司，然后买进Copart。
I don't feel like Copart is, you know, the opportunity that now stands out to me when I look at the rest of our portfolio, where I immediately feel like we gotta sell, you know, one of the companies, then make it happen and buy Copart.
因为我们从《超级减肥王》那一集得到的一个主要教训是，我们在那些收入下滑或者至少收入增长率下滑的业务上表现不太好。
Because one of our major takeaways from, for example, The Biggest Loser episode is that we did not do too well on businesses where the revenue is declining, or at least the growth rate of the revenue is declining.
虽然我觉得我理解Copart的原因，但我们刚刚看到管理层提出了一些警示信号，比如突然更换CEO，以及新CEO杰伊·阿代尔将对业务做出哪些改变的一些比较模糊的声明。
And while I believe I do understand the reasons for Copart, we just saw the management raising some yellow flags with, you know, the sudden CEO change and then some more or less vague statements on what Jay Adair, the new CEO, will change about the business.
我们确实看到了这一点。
And we sort of saw that.
你知道，我们在像Lululemon这样的公司身上看到了。
You know, we saw it with companies like Lulu.
我们在PayPal身上也看到了。
We saw it with PayPal.
我们在某种程度上也在Adobe身上看到了，尽管情况有所不同，这让我现在对这个机会提不起太大的兴趣。
We saw it to some extent, although it's different with Adobe, And just sort of stops me from, you know, really being excited about the opportunity right now.
再说一次，如果你非要我表态，我会说Copart未来会是一个不错的投资，但可能不是接下来的几个月，而是等周期反转之后。
And, again, if you put me on the spot, then I would say Copart will be a good investment going forward, but perhaps not in the next couple of months, but once the cycle turns.
而且，显然，我们是做长期投资的。
And, obviously, we want to invest for the long term.
但看看我们的投资组合，我实在找不到一家我现在愿意卖掉来买Copart的公司。
But if I look at our portfolio, I just don't see a company that I would want to sell right now in order to buy Copart.
而且我们手头现金只有大约2%，实际上还不到这个数。
And we only have about 2% cash left, actually a bit less than that.
所以基本上，我们需要做的就是卖掉一家公司，然后用这笔钱买Copart。
So, basically, what we would need to do is sell one company and then buy Copart for it.
这是我的看法。
That's my take.
你怎么看？
How do you see it?
有没有哪家公司让你觉得，非得拥有Copart不可，所以得卖掉Axio这家公司？
Is there any company you would feel like, got to own Copart, so I got to sell company Axio?
我不一定这么认为。
I don't necessarily think so.
我觉得我们俩可能都因为在那集里看那些表现最差的公司而有点心理阴影了。
I think we're probably both a bit traumatized from our experiences looking at the biggest losers in in that episode.
我们会在节目笔记里放上链接，以防你错过了那期。
We'll we'll link to that in the show notes in case you missed it out.
我们确实越来越体会到，向下的动量可以有多强。
We have definitely come to appreciate how strong of a force downward momentum can be.
股票几乎总是能跌到比你想象中更低的程度，即使你模拟出那些你认为非常保守的熊市情形。
Stocks almost always can fall further than you think possible even when you model out these what you think are very conservative bear cases.
所以这就是现实，尤其是在短期内。
So that's that's just the reality, especially in the short term.
因为股票跌到了远低于任何人认为可能的水平，这时候最后一批卖家才会认输投降，然后股价终于可以再次反弹上涨。
Because the stock falls to a point far below what anyone thought was possible, that's actually where you get the last sellers of the stock capitulating and then the shares can finally take off rallying again.
所以金融领域里这种钟摆式的摆动几乎是不可避免的过程。
So it is sort of an inevitable process to have this pendulum swinging in finance.
这种情况很常见。
There's a lot of it.
但我真的很喜欢Copart，因为它完美诠释了为什么人们常说你应该投资那些无聊的业务。
But I really like Copart because it's just such a perfect epitome of why you'll hear people say that you should invest in boring businesses.
不幸的是，这个经验法则太简化了，但Copart的业务非常直观且无聊，因为它不会消失。
And unfortunately, that heuristic is too simplified, but Copart's business is very intuitive and boring in the sense that it's not going anywhere.
虽然我们今天甚至没有真正讨论自动驾驶汽车，但它至少承诺会从根本上改变我们的驾驶方式。
Even though we didn't even really discuss AVs today, which does promise to at least fundamentally change how we drive.
我们还不太清楚这会对业务产生什么影响，但无论是人类驾驶还是自动驾驶，我确信尤其是在美国，有庞大的高速公路系统，汽车在我们有生之年不会消失。
And we don't really yet know how that'll affect the business, but whether human driven or automated, I'm sure that in The US in particular, there are vast highway system, cars are not going anywhere in our lifetimes.
而且，如果有什么的话，自动驾驶可能会导致驾驶的普及，从而为Copart带来更多业务，尤其是假设在汽车中融入更多技术使其自动驾驶，那么报废它们就变得更容易了。
And if anything, AVs could lead to a proliferation of driving and therefore business for Copart, especially with the assumption that by baking in even more technology into cars to make them autonomous, totaling them becomes easier.
所以我想这可能是我对Copart的看涨理由。
So I would say that's probably my bull case on Copart.
再说，20倍市盈率，增长放缓，CEO换人，以及一些关于自动驾驶汽车的根本不确定性，我同意这只股票并不明显便宜，尽管价格已经大幅下跌，这对一些人来说可能违反直觉，但这就是内在价值运作的现实。
Again, 20 times earnings with decelerating growth, a CEO swap out, some of this fundamental uncertainty about autonomous vehicles, I would just agree that the stock is not obviously cheap even though the price has come down a lot, is counterintuitive to some people, but, that's just the reality of how intrinsic value works.
所以如果我们等待，我们很可能能够以低价买入股票，并避免一些过山车般的波动。
And so if we wait, we may very well be able to pick up shares at a bargain bin price and spare ourselves some of the roller coaster ride.
如果我们没有机会这样做，我也完全没问题。
If we don't get the chance to do so, I'm perfectly fine with that too.
我觉得我们还持有其他很多很棒的业务。
Think we own a lot of other great businesses.
我想最后一点对我来说，归根结底就是，这家公司是不是我必须在某个时候拥有的？
I think the last point in what it comes down to me to, where basically I would say, is this a company that I need to own at some point?
如果是的话，我觉得现在的价格很合适，可以说，好吧，也许它会再便宜一点，但如果我确实想拥有这家公司，我应该抓住现在这个机会买入，然后如果价格再跌，还可以再买一些。
And if it would be, I think it's at a great price right now to say, okay, well, maybe it gets a bit cheaper, but if I definitely wanna own this business, I should use the opportunity right now to buy it and then potentially buy more when it comes down further.
我真的很喜欢研究Copart。
I think I I really enjoy looking into Copart.
我喜欢这家公司。
I like the business.
我喜欢它是我们在节目里看过的很多元化的公司之一。
I like that it's one of the most multi businesses that we looked at here on the show.
但是，就像我之前说的，它并没有让我兴奋到非要买不可。
And yet, as I said before, it doesn't excite me so much that I wanna buy it necessarily.
这倒不是因为它是家无聊的公司。
And that's not because it's a borrowing business.
我觉得借贷业务通常是个很好的机会，但我觉得价格需要更便宜一些。
I think borrowing business is generally a great opportunity, but I think it needs to be cheaper.
我觉得你提到的那个点，就是当最后一个人卖出股票的时候，那就是你买入一个你不太确定的公司的时候。
I think what you mentioned in terms of, you know, when the last person is selling stock, that's when you wanna buy a company that you're not too sure of.
我的意思是，你知道，我们在讨论“最大输家”的时候提到过，基本上当我们卖出PayPal的时候，我们是最后一个卖出股票的人。
I mean, you know, one of the things we discussed with our Biggest Losers is that, basically, when we sold PayPal, we were the last hand that sold the stock.
从那以后，它涨了大概60%。
And since then, it went up, you know, 60%.
但我觉得我们现在对Copart的情况不是这样的。
But I think that's not the case where we are currently with Copart.
我觉得还有足够多的人看好这家公司，所以这可能还不是底部。
I think there are still enough people who are bullish on the company so that this might not be the bottom.
再说，如果你想买这家公司，我觉得它现在处于周期性低点，可能会很有意思。
Again, if you wanna buy the company, think it is at a cyclical low, and I think it could be interesting.
但对我们两个人来说，考虑到我们已经在内在价值投资组合里持有的公司，我觉得我们暂时会跳过。
But for the two of us, considering the companies we already have in the Intrinsic Value Portfolio, I think we're going to pass for now.
如果股价进一步下跌，那情况就另当别论了。
And should the stock decline even further, I think that would be a bit of a different scenario.
另外，我在播客里也提到过，股价已经涨了25%，所以现在已经不是最低点了，要是还在最低点的话，吸引力会比现在更大。
Also, should say, you know, I mentioned in the podcast here, the stock is already up 25%, so we're not at the bottom anymore, where I think it would have been even more attractive than it is today.
好了，说了这么多，今天就用Copart创始人威利斯·约翰逊本人的一句话来收尾吧。
Anyway, with all of that said, let me close it for today with a quote by none other than the Copart founder, Willis Johnson himself.
他说：“只要我们把车停放在合适的地段，我们就不会失败。”
And he said, quote, as long as we have got the land in the right place to put the cars on, we can't fail.
所以你看，今天我们总是忍不住谈论那些游艇的行情，但就连威利斯·约翰逊也忍不住要谈这个。
So I said it, you know, oftentimes today, we can't stop talking about the mode that the yachts have been, but even Wallace Johnson can't stop talking about it.
所以我们这么做大概是对的。
So we're probably right to do that.
好了，以上就是今天的内容，希望你喜欢这期节目，我们下期再见。
And with all that said, I hope you had a great time listening to this episode, and see you all in the next one.
感谢收听TIP。
Thanks for listening to TIP.
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