TIP846：选股者：如何靠投资组合生活，嘉宾 Ian Cassel

格雷格，我觉得这是个很有意思的逆向思考方式，或者说换个角度来看。

Greg Well, I think that's an interesting way to invert or reframe that.

我从来没想过，你知道吗，我真的很需要一个徒弟。

I don't think I've ever thought, you know, I could really use a mentee.

你知道吗？

You know?

就像，我得去找一个。

Like, I need to go find one.

我觉得如果你在某个领域有所成就，不管是商业、投资还是选股，最终年轻人会被你吸引过来。

I think if you're somewhat accomplished, whether that's in business or investing or stock picking, I think it eventually younger people will be pulled into your orbit.

这是自然而然发生的。

And it happens naturally.

最终，会有个年轻人主动来给你增加价值，就像我当初对斯基普那样，我引起了他的注意，然后你就注意到了。

Eventually, younger person goes out of their way to just like I did to Skip, how I got his attention, eventually some younger person goes out of their way to add value to you, and you take notice.

他们一次又一次地这样做，你忍不住要回报他们，因为如果你不回报，你几乎会感到内疚，因为他们给你的生活带来了太多价值。

And they do it again and again, and you just can't help but reciprocate because you almost feel bad if you don't because they've kind of added so much value to your life.

我觉得整个导师和学员的关系就是自然而然发生的。

And I think the whole thing of the whole mentor mentee thing just kinda happens naturally.

这是一种正常的互惠关系，不一定非要贴上导师和学员的标签。

And it's a normal kind of reciprocal relationship that doesn't necessarily have the label of mentor mentee.

不是说你一觉醒来，就突然说，你现在是我的学员了。

It's not like, you know, you wake up and you're like, you're my mentee now.

你懂吧？

You know?

这其实就是一种正常的关系，可以归到导师和学员这个范畴里，双方都心知肚明，但并不是那么死板，再说回来。

It's just a normal relationship that could be kind of put under that umbrella of mentor mentee that you both know, but it's not like rigid and bringing it back again.

我确实觉得很多年轻人在这方面的做法不太对。

I do think a lot of younger people approach this kind of the wrong way.

我觉得很多年轻人，他们看着像你这样的，Stig，或者可能是我，或者其他人，他们把这当成一种从成功人士那里获取信息的方式。

I think a lot of younger people, they they look to somebody like you, Stig, or maybe me or whoever it is, and they kinda look at it as a way to extract information from an accomplished person.

人。

Person.

他们看你就像看一个软件一样。

They kinda look at you like a piece of software.

他们觉得可以直接下载你的大脑，然后学走你所有的经验，再应用到自己的生活里。

They can just download your brain and then learn whatever you've done, and then they can apply that to their life.

而且，你知道，这更像是一种索取。

And, you know, more of a a take.

你明白吗？

You know?

这对你或对我这样的人来说，其实没什么吸引力，我相信你肯定也经常收到这种邮件，就像我一样。

And and that's not attractive to a person like you or a person like me, you know, which I'm sure you get emails just like I do about this type of thing.

你懂吧？

You know?

真正吸引人的，是那种很自然发生的方式，就像我刚才说的那样。

What what is attractive, and it happens subtly, is kind of the way I described it.

我觉得最终会有某个年轻人给你带来价值，而且是一次又一次地这样做。

I think eventually some younger person adds value to you, and they do it time and time again.

然后你就开始回报对方，慢慢地，关系就这样发展起来了。

Then you just start reciprocating, and then that's just how it blossoms from there.

斯蒂格，我觉得你做到了很多年轻人，也许还有年纪大一点的人梦寐以求的事情——作为一个三五十岁的私人投资者，靠投资组合生活。

Stig I think you've done what a lot of young people and perhaps also older people are dreaming of, living off your portfolio as a thirty:fifty private investor.

对你来说，这个数字是两百万美元。当然，现在或将来听这个节目的人，也得明白这是什么时候的两百万。今天的两百万和二十年前的两百万不一样，和二十年后的两百万也不一样。

For you, the number was $2,000,000 Of course, everyone listening to this now or in the future, they also have to understand which time this was in $2,000,000 today is different than it was twenty years ago or would be twenty years from now.

但请告诉我们，你是怎么得出这个数字的？

But please tell us, how did you come up with that number?

另外，也许可以谈谈靠投资组合生活的痛苦和乐趣，尤其是那些让你意想不到的事情。

Also perhaps talk about some of the pains and pleasures of living off your portfolio, especially about the surprises.

说到全职私人投资，至少就我的经验而言，我觉得这是一个你设定的目标，而且你通常会在可能还没准备好的时候就做出这个决定，这意味着你真的需要获得高于市场的回报，这样你才能在扣除开支后，仍然有高于市场的收益。

When you're talking about full time private investing, at least the way I've experienced it, I view it as a goal that one makes, and you usually make the decision to do it before you probably should, which means that you really need to achieve above market returns so that you can still get above market returns minus your expenses.

因为目标不只是把所有的收益都拿来消费。

Because the goal isn't just to take all your gains and plow it into your consumption.

关键是要养活自己，同时还能让你的资本在扣除这些开支后，以比标普指数更快的速度增长。

The point is to support yourself and still grow your capital minus those expenses at a greater rate than the S and P.

这就是目标。

That's the goal.

我确实认为，全职做个人投资者是财务成功和成就的巅峰。

I do believe that kind of being a full time private investor is the pinnacle of financial success and achievement.

你明白吗？

You know?

因为你有自主权。

Because you have you have autonomy.

没有老板。

You have no bosses.

没有客户，没有投资人，但也没有401k匹配，没有医保，至少在美国是这样。

You have no clients, no investors, but you also have no four zero one k match or no health care, at least here in The US.

你知道，那些都是要自己掏钱的。

You know, that is paid for.

对吧？

You know?

所以当你做出那个决定的时候，你是没有安全网的。

So you have no safety net when you make that decision.

你的成功和失败，基本上百分之百取决于你自己，能者多劳，多劳多得。

Your success and failure is sort of 100% kinda what you eat is what you kill.

所以我不想低估这个决定在心理上和情感上的难度，尤其是你知道的。

And so I don't wanna downplay how hard it is mentally and emotionally, especially, you know, to make that decision.

我从来没有真正意义上的固定工资。

Never really had a paycheck per se.

我的医疗保险也从来没有由雇主支付过，所以我从来没有被安全网束缚住。

I never had my healthcare paid for by an employer, so I was never anchored to a safety net.

所以我觉得这个决定对我来说稍微容易一些。

So I think that made the decision a little bit easier for me.

对我来说，这可能更难，不仅是财务上的，更是情感上的决定。

I was, it would probably be a harder, just emotional, let alone financial decision.

作为全职私人投资者的另一个有趣的事情是，我记得我在反思的时候，人们总是谈论储蓄。

The other funny thing about being a full time private investor, and I remember reflecting on this when I was, was people talk about saving.

储蓄和投资很重要。

It's important to save and invest.

但当你是个全职私人投资者时，其实根本不存在储蓄这回事。

Like, well, when you're a full time private investor, there's no such thing as savings.

那只是不同花法而已。

It's just different degrees of spending.

就是花多花少的区别。

It's just flexing up or down.

所以当我做这个决定时，我还是单身，生活很节俭，每个月两千美元就能过活。

And so when I did it, I was single, I was very frugal, I could live off $2,000 per month.

固定开销保持低，变动开销保持灵活。

Kept my fixed costs low, my variable costs variable.

我确实偶尔会买些好东西，比如我买保时捷的故事，但十二个月后我又把它卖掉了。

Did buy nice things from time to time, like the story of the Porsche that I bought, but I also got rid of it in another twelve months after that.

我从不被那些好东西束缚住。

Was never anchored to those nice things.

因为全职做私人投资，你的目标其实是独立，而不是消费。

Because full time private investing, it's really your goal, the goal is independence, not consumption.

独立是第一位的。

Independence comes first.

我在书里提到了很多关于全职投资的不同方面。

I mentioned a bunch of things, I think in the book about different areas about full time investing.

但我认为，对于短线交易者来说，更容易在心理和情感上迈出这一步，因为如果你的平均持仓时间是几天或几周，那笔盈利就像每隔一周或每月收到工资一样。

But I think it is easier for those that are shorter term traders to just to make the mental and emotional leap because if your average hold period is days or weeks, that win can mimic getting a paycheck in the mail or every other week or month.

我觉得在这方面更容易。

I think it's easier in that.

但如果你是像我这样的长期投资者，典型的持仓时间是六个月、十二个月或二十四个月，股票很可能在我赚钱之前先下跌，也可能一两年毫无起色，这就会给你带来另一种情感和财务上的压力。

But if you're longer term like I was with a typical hold period of six months or twelve months or twenty four months, a longer term investor where the stock could easily go down before I make money, it could easily go nowhere for a year or two, that puts another kind of emotional and financial kind of constraint on yourself.

所以你必须根据自己的投资者类型，在投资组合中设置一些这样的保护措施。

And so you have to just set up these kind of safeguards in in your portfolio depending on the type of investor that you are.

我觉得很多人，在牛市的时候看这个，觉得很容易，因为每个人都拿着Excel表格，把去年的25%收益直接复制到未来五年。

I think a lot of people, they look at it during a bull market, and they think it's easy because everyone's taking their Excel spreadsheet and taking last year's 25% performance and just mimicking that for the next five years.

我只要从中拿出百分之四或五，就能付我的账单，这看起来挺容易的。

I can just shave four or 5% off this and pay for my bills, that seems easy.

但第一年你亏了百分之二十五，还得卖出百分之五。

But the first year that you're down 25%, and you have to sell 5%.

然后你猜怎么着？

And then guess what?

当你亏了百分之二十五，又卖出百分之五，你已经在想，如果再来一次怎么办？

When you're down 25% and you sell 5%, you're already thinking about what if this happens again?

如果明年再亏百分之二十五呢？

What if I'm down 25% more next year?

这时候你就崩溃了。

And that's where you crack.

所以我觉得，对我来说，在全球金融危机之后立刻做出这个决定，是非常有利的，因为那已经证明了我能挺过百分之五十的回撤。

So that's where I kind of feel like making the decision right after the GFC, in my case, was very beneficial to me just because it kind of already proved that I could kind of make it through a 50% drawdown.

对我来说，定下两百万这个数字，更多反映的不是我对未来五年回报的预期。

And for me, coming up with the figure of 2,000,000 in my case was more a reflection of not what I expected my returns to be for the next five years.

那是我愿意承受的痛苦有多大？

It was what was the pain I was willing to endure?

你知道，就是我能承受50%的回撤，而且不会改变我的投资风格或策略的那个金额是多少？

You know, what was the amount of money where I can sustain a 50% drawdown and doesn't change the type of investor or my strategy?

所以对我来说，那200万就是这么来的。

And so that's really where the $2,000,000 came from, you know, for me.

那你第一次见到你未来的妻子时，是怎么跟她解释这件事的？

So how did you explain this to your future wife the first time you met each other?

说自己是木匠就简单多了。

It's a little bit easier to be like, I'm a carpenter.

好吧，我大概能理解为什么。

Okay, I have someone can idea why that is.

当她说‘你是做什么工作的？’的时候，你怎么回答？

What does she say whenever you're like, So what do do for a living?

我是全职的私人微型股投资者。

I'm a full time private one:thirty microcap

投资者。

investor.

她是不是说，什么，什么，什么是微盘股？

Was she like, What, what and what is microcap?

是的，这有很多

Yes, it's a lot

什么。

of what.

一开始就是这样开始的。

Stig was how it started.

不，我之所以问这个，是因为我认识我妻子的时候，我们都还是学生，至少我当时有那样的前景，但我是靠打扑克来支付学费的。

No, and the reason why I also asked, and I met my wife whenever we were students, at least I had sort of like that going forward, but I paid my way playing poker.

记得几次约会时，我都在谈论我预算的每百手大盲注数量，显然这不是典型的约会话题，我听说。

Remember a few dates in talking about the number of big blinds per hour I was budgeting for, and that was not the typical date talk apparently, so I hear.

你是怎么认识你妻子的？你是怎么告诉一个你真正在乎的人，你就是靠这个养活自己，并且希望将来也能养活她的？

How did you meet your wife and how do you tell someone you really care for that that's how you provide yourself and hope to provide for her perhaps?

对，斯提格。

Stig Yeah.

我是说，我跟她解释的方式可能跟别人不太一样。

I mean, how how I explained to her was probably different than other people that I would run into.

我觉得跟新认识的人聊天最难受的就是告诉他们我是做什么的。

I found the most excruciating thing to have a conversation about with new people was telling them what I did for a living.

你知道吗？

You know?

但显然，我老婆有点不一样，因为她大概不会觉得我是毒贩之类的，就只是坐在

But, obviously, my you know, my your wife's a little bit different because she probably doesn't think I was a drug dealer or something like that just sitting sitting in

我家里。

my house.

这难道不比全职做微型市值股票投资者更好吗？

And isn't that just better than being a full time private microcaps investor?

嗯，我就是这么跟她说的。

Well, I mean, that that's what I I would tell her.

我们会去参加一些活动，在那里我会认识新朋友，诸如此类的事情。

We would go to events where I would meet new people, that type of thing.

我就会说，听着，就跟别人说我没工作。

I'd be like, listen, just tell people I'm unemployed.

我不想

I don't wanna have to

为了这个聊上一个小时，或者不想在认识新朋友的时候聊这个，她就会笑。

have an hour long discussion about this or out meeting new people, and she would laugh.

她有时候真的会这么说，所以我们俩就会相视一笑。

She would literally say that sometimes, so we'd both smirk back back and forth to each other.

但我觉得，她挺聪明的。

But I I think, I mean, she would she was pretty smart.

我觉得她明白我在做什么。

I mean, I think she understood what I was doing.

我觉得她花了好几年才适应我们个人财务的波动，你知道，就是那种波动怎么反映出来的，因为我的收益一直时好时坏。

I think it took a couple years for her to get used to the volatility in our personal finances, you know, how that that gets reflected, because my returns have been consistently inconsistent.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以，你可能会有一年亏个几十万，第二年持平，第三年赚个一百万。

So, you know, you might lose a couple 100,000 one year, and you break even the next year, and then you make a million dollars your third year.

你知道吗？

You know?

差不多就是这个样子。

That's kinda what it looked like.

所以你还是需要，再说一遍，做好那些保障措施。

And so you just need to, again, have those safeguards in place.

对我来说，就是个人银行账户里总是存着两年的现金，这样我就不用在不好的时机卖出股票。

For me, was always having two years of cash in my personal bank account so I would not have to sell stocks down at a bad time.

就连我们的银行账户也是这么设置的，我负责固定开销，她负责变动开销，我就是这样把账分开的。

Just setting up those even our bank accounts, I would cover the fixed cost, she would cover the variable, and that's how I would kind of partition off.

好的。

Okay.

我们可以灵活调整，往上调或往下调。

We can flex this up or flex this down.

所以我在心里和实际上都设了这些保护措施。

So we I had all these mental kind of safeguards set up and literal ones.

你知道吗？

You know?

但她慢慢习惯了。

But she got used to it.

我是说，她见了不少人。

I mean, she met a lot.

我是说，她见过Skip，还有他当时的女朋友。

I mean, she met Skip Skip and his girlfriend at the time.

当然，Skip那时候大概75岁了，婚礼上他身边挽着个32岁的金发美女。

Of course, Skip was probably, like, 75 at the time, and he had, a 32 year old blonde bombshell in his arm at her wedding.

再说一次，他就是个有意思的人物。

Again, just a just a character.

你知道吗？

You know?

她有机会见到他，但花了一段时间。

She got a chance to meet him, and and it took a while.

不过，再回到存钱的话题，你知道，作为一对年轻夫妇，每个人都会说，我在为这个存钱，或者为那个存钱。

But, again, getting back to the savings part too, like, you're you know, as you're a young married couple, you know, everyone's like, well, I'm saving for this or saving for that.

我就说，然后她说，我们不应该存钱吗？

I'm like, And she's like, Shouldn't we be saving?

我说，根本不存在存钱这回事。

I'm like, There's no such thing as saving.

只是我们打算花多少钱的问题。

It's just about how much are we going to spend?

就是这样。

It's what it is.

因为我做的就是建立我们的投资组合。

Because what I do for a living is build our portfolio.

三十比三十，所以就是说，根本不存在什么储蓄这回事。

Thirty:thirty So it's like, there's no such thing as savings.

我喜欢这个说法。

I love that.

好的。

All right.

那么，伊恩，你在书里这句话上加了个警告标签，你写道：你买的大多数微型股必须在三十六个月内卖出，即使是赢家也一样。

So Ian, you put a warning label on this sentence here in your book whenever you wrote, Most microcaps you buy must be sold within thirty six months, even the winners.

我觉得这太有意思了。

I just found that to be so fascinating.

也许正在收听节目的听众也有同感，因为他们是在巴菲特和芒格的信徒环境中长大的，对吧？

Perhaps the audience who are tuning in thinks the same thing because they are raised in the church of Buffett and Munger, right?

你们应该买入并持有，而且通常也投资于大公司，我们很多听众都是这样。

And you're supposed to buy and hold and typically also invest in larger companies, many of our listeners.

每当我们听到这样的话，他们可能会想：他在说什么呢？

Whenever they hear a sentence like that, perhaps they're like, He's saying what now?

那你能详细说说吗？

So could you please paint some color around that?

我觉得首先，投资小公司和投资大公司完全是两码事。

Think the first thing is investing in a small business versus a large one is apples and oranges.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以投资大盘股和微型股，完全是两种不同的东西。

So investing in large caps versus microcaps is two completely beasts.

你知道吗？

You know?

它们完全不同。

They're completely different.

你知道吗？

You know?

微型股就是小公司，正因为它们是小公司，所以充满了各种不同的集中风险。

Microcaps are small businesses, and because they're small businesses, they're filled with different varieties of concentration risk.

我的意思是，在管理层面上，CEO或者创始人存在关键人物风险，因为他们身兼数职，自己做很多决策。

What I mean by that is on the management level, the CEO, of a key person risk because the CEO or the founder, they wear so many different hats and they're making so many more decisions themselves.

这就是一种风险。

That's a risk.

万一他们被面包车撞了或者出什么事怎么办？

What if they get hit by a bread truck or whatever?

小企业还存在集中度风险。

There's also with small businesses, concentration risk.

每个小企业可能都有一个重要客户，或者正是这个客户帮他们起步的。

Every small business probably has one large customer or maybe it's a customer that buoyed them that got things kick started.

所以，你总是要面对客户集中度风险，微型市值公司也是如此。

So there's always this customer concentration risk that you're dealing with and small microcaps as well.

还有地域或司法管辖区的风险。

There's also kind of geographical or jurisdictional risk.

也许他们只把产品或服务卖给一种终端市场，如果那个终端市场出了什么事怎么办？

Maybe they only sell their products or services into one type of end market, and what happens if that end market, something happens there?

所以对于微型市值公司来说，你面对的是来自各个角度的集中风险，这往往导致很高的失败率，你知道的。

And so with microcap companies, you're dealing with all this concentration risk coming from all different angles, and it just leads to a high percentage of bad outcomes, you know, because of that.

因为它们大多数情况下是脆弱的，而不是反脆弱的。

Because they are fragile, not antifragile, in most cases on the average.

正因为如此，它们的寿命往往比较短。

And so because of that, they just have shorter shelf lives.

而且即使它们有表现好的时候，通常也比你想的要短。

And when they do have a winning season, it's usually a shorter winning season than what you would think.

从一个大客户那里拿到一个大合同，下个季度就能增长30%。

Get a large contract from one large customer and it the next quarter, they grow 30%.

好吧，它们可以在接下来的四个季度里保持30%的增长，因为要超越之前的业绩基数。

Well, they can put up 30% growth for the next four quarters as they surpass their old comps.

那之后会发生什么呢？

And then what happens after that?

它们要么替换掉那个大客户，要么再拿下一个大单，来确保持续增长。

They replace that or get an additional large win to make sure that growth continues.

那就是一个高光期。

That's a winning season.

也就是四个季度。

That's four quarters.

这样的例子其实有很多。

And there's a whole bunch of, like, examples of that.

所以，微型市值公司的赢家，通常会有那种六到二十四个月，甚至三十六个月的高光期。

So, like, microcap winners, like, have this kinda six to twenty four month, thirty six month, like, winning season.

所以很多时候，当你看到一个微型市值公司可能刚有一个不错的季度，最重要的自问就是：这种情况能持续多久？

And so a lot of times when you're looking at a microcap business that maybe just had a good quarter, the most important question to ask yourself is how long will this last?

而且要对这个问题诚实。

And be honest with yourself about that.

大多数情况下，持续的时间比你想象的要短，而不是更长。

And in most cases, it's shorter than you think, not longer than you think.

总会有一些例外，管理出色，做对了一切，能把增长延续到一年、两年、三年，甚至五年、十年，但这样的公司非常非常少。

There's always gonna be those outliers that have great management, that that do all the right things, that can compound that growth past, you know, one, two, three years on to five or ten, but that is very, very few.

所以重要的是要活在现实中，不要把你从媒体或播客里听到的那些关于咖啡罐之类的信念强加到这个微型股投资这个资产类别上，因为那行不通。

So it's important to live in the reality and not overlay some belief that you hear in the media or on podcasts about coffee canning or things like that and put that on top of this asset class of MicroCap investing because it doesn't work.

目标是找到那些能够持续增长十年或二十年的公司。

The goal is to find those that can compound for ten or twenty years.

但就像巴菲特在他的职业生涯中，公开投资组合里持有过数百只股票，而今天他只持有十只，并且已经持有十年了。

But just like Buffett did across his career of owning hundreds of stocks in their public portfolio, today only holds 10 that he's held for ten years.

所以，几十年里他拥有过数百只股票，但只有十只。

So 10 out of hundreds that he's owned over decades.

你知道，即使是世界上最伟大的选股者，像他那样投资大盘股的人，也需要五十年的时间，投资数百只股票，才能找到少数几只值得长期持有的。

You know, it takes the greatest stock pickers in the world, even those that invest in mega caps like him, fifty years of investing in hundreds of stocks to find a handful that are worthy of holding long term.

所以当你看着微型股的时候，想想要找到它们需要多五十倍的换手率。

And so when you're looking at microcaps, just think about how much one:fifty more turnover it would take to find them.

说得好。

Well put.

我想再强调一下你刚才提到的高换手率策略，因为这可能更适合做全职的私人投资者，因为这些三十到五十次的小额、更频繁的收益可能就像拿到工资一样。

I want to double down on one of the things you said there about the high turnover strategy because perhaps that lends itself better to be a full time private investor because these thirty:fifty small, more frequent gains could resemble getting a paycheck.

不过你刚才提到那一点的时候，我也有点惊讶，因为我自己可能打扑克打得太多了，就像我之前说的。

But then whenever you also alluded to that, I was also a bit surprised in the sense that I probably play too much poker, like I already mentioned here.

但我记得我打扑克那会儿，我一般当然希望赢的次数越多越好。

But I remember from my poker days, I generally wanted to have as many winning sessions, obviously, as I could.

其中一个原因，尤其是当我遇到我现在的妻子的时候，她总是问：那今天怎么样？

One of the reasons why, especially whenever I met my now wife, was that she always asked, So how did it go?

我们不一定聊什么每小时的大注或者别的，但我就会说，我赢了或者输了。

And we weren't necessarily talking about big bonds per hour or whatnot, but I would be like, I won or lost.

说“我赢了”感觉更好，三十到五十次吧。

It just feels better thirty:fifty to be like, I won.

所以会发生什么，尤其是像我这样在扑克世界里脾气不太好的人，就是你会赢很多局。

And so what happens, especially if you has such a bad temperament as me in the world of poker, is that you take a lot of winning sessions.

我的意思是，即使你赢了游戏，还是有很多波动。

What I mean by that is even if you beat the game, there's a lot of volatility.

你可以赢局，意思是你可以早点收手，有很多风险你不想冒，因为你想赢。

You can take winning sessions in the sense of you can cut them shorter, there are a lot of risks that you don't take because you want to win.

所以在这种情况下，你可能赢了，比如说，一千美元，但如果你按照正确的方式玩，你的期望值可能是三千美元，但那样波动会大得多。

So in that case, you might be winning, I don't know, $1,000, but your expected value if you actually played the way you should was thirty:fifty $3,000 but then there came a lot more volatility.

如果你一直重复做同样的事情，你很可能不会

So if you continue to do the same thing over and over again, you probably thirty:fifty don't

想要赢的场次。

want to have winning sessions.

你想要的是最高的期望值，只要你的仓位大小合适。

You want to have the highest expected value as long as you size your position.

再说一次，仓位可以是你的下注，无论是在股市还是在牌桌上。

According again, positions could be your bets, but in the stock market or at the poker table.

总之，我绕了很大一圈，但你是怎么看待拿工资这件事的？

So anyways, I'm going a long way around this, but how do you think about that in terms of getting that paycheck?

或者也许我们的一些听众会想，那就买那些优质复利股，然后，我不知道，跌4%就卖掉之类的。

Or perhaps some of our listeners would be thinking, Well, just buy those quality compounders and then, I don't know, sell down 4% or whatever

的

thirty:fifty of

你的投资组合，这就是赚钱的方式吗？

your portfolio and that's the way to get paid?

我觉得没有唯一的方法。

I don't think there's one way to do it.

就像我说的，我主要分享的是我对微型市值投资的想法。

And like I said, I'm particularly giving people my thoughts of microcap investing.

我认为当你关注更大、更稳健的企业，甚至更大的小盘股、中盘股或大盘股时，你当然可以采取更长期的投资策略。

I think you can certainly take a longer term approach when you're looking at larger, more robust businesses, when you're looking at even larger small caps or mid caps or large caps.

我觉得你可以更倾向于买入并持有的理念。

I think you can have more of a buy and hold philosophy.

做这件事没有固定的方式。

There's no one way you can do this.

我的意思是，这就是那些投资大师教给我们的。

I mean, that's what the that's what the greats have taught us.

但我觉得大师们还教给我们另一件事，即使是巴菲特、格林布拉特，以及所有大家敬仰的人，包括我自己，都很难绕过这一点。

But I think the other thing the greats have taught us, even looking at at Buffett and Greenblatt and all these people that everybody looks up to, including myself, is they're it's hard to get around this.

比如，他们收益最高的年份，也是换手率最高的年份，你知道吗，这跟很多人的做法正好相反。

Like, their peak return years were also the years they had the highest turnover, you know, which kinda counters what a lot of people do.

而且我觉得即使在今天，甚至有些主动型基金经理，他们也会拿自己的换手率来说事。

And I think even to in today's culture, think even some active managers, they they point to their turnover rate.

换手率只有10%或者5%什么的，几乎当成一种荣誉勋章。

It's 10% or 5% or whatever, almost like a badge of honor.

这甚至比他们的业绩表现还要重要。

It's even better than what their performance is.

所以我就是想让大家明白，那些大师们到底是怎么做的，即使是那些今天看起来像是买入并持有的投资者。

And so I just kinda like to make sure that people understand what the greats were doing, even those that today might look like buy and hold investors.

他们达到那个境界的方式，跟你想的不太一样。

How they got there was a little bit different than what you think.

而且我觉得对任何人来说，只要你的性格跟你的策略匹配，不管是做日内交易还是长期持有大盘股，方法不止一种，你只需要找到适合自己个性和性格的那条路。

And I think for anybody, I think as long as your temperament fits your strategy, whether that's day trading or coffee canning large caps, there's more than one way to do this, and you just have to figure out the way for yourself that fits your personality and your temperament.

对。

Stig Yeah.

我喜欢你说的，最好的回报伴随着最高的换手率。

I love that you say that the best returns came with the highest turnover.

我觉得这背后可能有很多不同的原因。

I think there's probably a lot of different reasons for that.

一部分是纯属运气。

Part of it is pure chance.

这是其中一个原因。

That's one of them.

但人们通常会跟随激励。

But people generally thirty:fifty follow incentives.

作为基金经理，告诉人们买入并持有很有道理，因为当你遇到亏损年份时，所有基金经理都会有亏损年份，你可以回头说，我告诉过你把钱留在我的基金里。

As a fund manager, it makes a lot of sense to tell people to buy and hold because whenever you're going to have a down year and all fund managers have down years, then you can point back and say, I told you to keep your money thirty:fifty in my fund.

所以这听起来挺合理的。

And so it's like, it sort of makes sense.

或者经典的是，当人们被问到错误时，他们会说，哦，我在100美元的时候卖掉了。

Or one of the classics are whenever people get asked about the mistakes, they're like, Oh, I sold this 100 back area.

我才赚了8倍而已。

I only made 8X on it.

你其实就是在炫耀。

You're actually just bragging.

你就像在说，哦，但那是个失误。

You're like, Oh, but it was an area of omission.

所以连我的失误都显得很厉害，就像面试的时候你会说，哦，我最大的缺点就是工作太努力、太在乎了。

So even my mistakes actually shows like It's like whenever you go to this job interview, you're like, Oh, my biggest mistake is that I work too hard and I care too much.

我当时就说，对。

I was like, Yeah.

好吧。

Okay.

总之，我想问这个问题的重点是，事实是一回事，故事又是另一回事。

So anyways but I guess my point of that question was also that there are the facts and then there are the stories.

有时候人们更容易被故事打动。

Sometimes it's easier to fall in love with the stories.

我觉得这对我们所有人来说都更容易。

And it's I think it's easier for all of us.

我们看待现实的方式和现实本身是不一样的。

We look at reality is different than our perception of it.

我们会把自己现在的信念、想法，以及我们对投资应该怎么样的看法，全都强加在上面。

We would have put our own beliefs and thoughts, whatever we're going through right now, our belief system around how what investing should be on top of everything.

但事情并不是那样运作的。

That just doesn't work that way.

每种投资方式，无论大小，都和其他方式完全不同。

Every kind of way of investing is is somewhat in smaller, big ways completely different from another one.

你不应该把那种长期持有的思路直接套用到微型股上。

You shouldn't be taking a a coffee can lens and applying that to MicroCap per se.

我不是说不能持有它们，但我觉得人们容易出问题的地方就在于，总想说，巴菲特在职业生涯末期是这样做的，我要把这个套用到我的路径和我的投资风格及策略上。

I mean, not saying you can't hold them, but I think that's where people get into trouble is trying to say, Well, Buffett did it this way at the end of his career, and I'm going to apply this to my path and my investing style and strategy.

我们稍作休息，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

作为投资者，有一个方面我觉得没得到足够的重视，那就是作为投资研究员，持续提升自己有多难。

One part of being an investor that I don't think gets enough attention is how hard it can be to continue to improve as an investment researcher.

对我自己来说，我经常发现，当我跟某个行业专家或基金经理聊得很好的时候，脑子里全是想法。

And for myself, I often find that when I finish a great conversation with some industry expert or fund manager, my head is full of ideas.

但等我坐下来想把这些都写下来的时候，一半的想法已经没了。

But by the time I sit down to write it all up, half of them are already gone.

这就是为什么我一直在用Plaud Note Pro。

That's why I've been using Plaud Note Pro.

这是个很小的设备，贴在手机背面，能录下对话，然后给我一份干净、可搜索的摘要。

It's a small device that sticks to the back of my phone and captures the conversation and hands me back a clean searchable recap.

关键点、后续跟进、还有那些我通常想采取行动的事情，它全都包含了。

And so the key points, the follow ups, the things I usually want to act on, it has all of that.

这样我就能专注于当下，而不是忙着记那些我之后都看不懂的笔记。

And that allows me to stay present in the room instead of scribbling notes that I won't be able to read back later.

而且我的字迹是出了名的难看。

And I notoriously have very bad handwriting.

所以这改变了我的准备方式，也改变了我与投资者的后续跟进。

And so it's changed how I prep and how I follow-up with investors.

它也是为那些认真对待对话的人设计的。

It's also built for people who take conversations seriously.

企业级安全。

Enterprise grade security.

所以如果你在录制与客户或行业联系人的通话，那也涵盖在内。

So if you're recording calls with clients or industry contacts, that's covered too.

所以如果你经常开会、打电话、做访谈，不妨看看这个。

So if you live in meetings, calls, and interviews, we'll give it a look.

访问 plaud.ai/wsb，使用代码 wsb 可享受 10% 折扣。

Go to plaud.ai/wsb, and use code w s b for 10% off.

网址是 plaud.ai 斜杠 WSB，代码是 WSB。

That's plaud.ai slash WSB code WSB.

还有，录制对话前一定要征得对方同意。

And always get consent before you record a conversation.

对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人。

You're not alone.

而Plus500期货是一个很好的起点。

And Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场瞬息万变，通过Plus500，你可以探索石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等热门资产。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500, you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有新鲜事发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台超级好用，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

只需100美元就能开始，马上投入其中。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到感兴趣的了？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，只需点击几下就能开始交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，可以用免费模拟账户练习一下。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得前所未有的便捷。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去plus500.com看看吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，也不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，让交易更上一层楼。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

每周我们都会在节目中分析一些公司，并问同样的问题：管理层是否真的在高效运营这家企业？

Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?

现在大多数公司的诚实答案是这样的：那些领先的公司，都是把人工智能用在日常事务上的。

Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.

这正是 Netsuite Next 的用武之地。

That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.

Netsuite Next 在你最需要的时候，给你提供洞察。

Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.

它让智能代理处理日常任务和问题，而且你可以用日常语言问复杂问题，就像跟一个懂行的同事聊天一样。

It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.

但技术只是故事的一部分。

But technology is only part of the story.

人工智能也在改变人们和团队的合作方式，这种转变已经在进行中了。

AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together, and that shift is already underway.

今天你手里就有一份专家制作的商业指南。

Expert created business guide in your hands today.

它叫《对齐：人工智能如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以免费获取。

It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.

里面你会看到，AI 如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及怎样让你的业务从中获益。

Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.

我自己在用，你也应该试试。

I use this and you should too.

如果你的收入至少达到七位数，就去 netsuite.com/tip 免费领取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI 如何改变日常工作》。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在 netsuite.com/tip 免费提供，netsuite.com/tip。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip, netsuite.com/tip.

好的，我们回到节目。

Stig All right, back to the show.

对，这也引出了我的下一个问题，因为我发现你接下来这段关于现金储备的论述非常有见地。

Stig Yeah, and it also takes me to the next question here because I found this next paragraph where you talk about cash position to be very insightful.

所以你不看好大量持有现金，因为那基本上意味着你是个市场择时者，每天醒来都盼着市场崩盘。

So you don't believe in large cash positions because it basically means that you're a market timer who wakes up hoping for a crash.

对，而且对尝试过这种方法的人来说，那样过日子压力太大了。

Stig And for someone who tried that approach, it's a very stressful way of living your life.

但你提到要持有足够的现金来买入半个新仓位，然后另一半得靠其他资金来补，这就逼着你放弃自己最不看好的那个仓位。

But you talk about holding enough cash to buy half of a new position, and then you have to fund the other half to and it forces you out of your weakest conviction.

我觉得这个思路挺有意思的。

I kind of felt there was such an interesting framing.

以前没见过这种三十比五十的讲法。

Haven't seen it thirty:fifty like that before.

这也呼应了你之前说的，我们俩性格不一样。

It also goes to the point you had here before where we just had different temperament.

我当时第一反应就是，真希望自己能像伊恩那样想问题。

The first thing I thought to myself was like, I wish I was wired the same way as Ian.

我会压力特别大。

I would get so stressed.

如果我也这么干，晚上肯定睡不着觉。

I wouldn't be able to sleep at night if that was the way I did it.

但后来我又想，从理性角度看，伊恩的做法其实更有道理。我说的压力是那种好的压力，因为它逼着你在主动和被动之间找到平衡。

Then I was like, intellectually, it makes a lot more sense when Ian is doing and I mean stress in a good way because it forces you to strike the balance between being active and inactive.

那么，请你给我们讲讲这个机制吧。

So anyways, please walk us through that mechanic.

嗯，也许我们可以稍微延伸一下这个话题，然后我再回答你真正的问题。就是说，回到之前提到的全球最优秀的选股者，他们最好的回报通常是在换手率最高的时候出现的。

Well, and maybe to parlay that a little bit and then I'll get to your actual question, is, like, even you know, getting back to that point about the best stock pickers in the world, their best returns normally occurred when they had the highest turnover.

我觉得选股者在赢的时候心态是最好的。

I think that a stock picker is almost in their best mindset when you're winning.

我自己就是这样。

I know I am.

你知道，当你赢的时候，你反而更容易卖掉那些亏损的股票，因为它们在投资组合里变得不那么重要了。

You know, it's like when you're winning, it actually frees you up to sell your losers easier, you know, in the portfolio that because they they become smaller.

你今年的盈亏是正的。

You know, your p and l is up on the year.

这时候，你更容易把错误砍掉，直接止损。

You know, it's easier just to shave off your mistakes and kill them.

在盈利的年份里，这样做更容易。

It's easier to do that in up years.

在行情不好的年份，你更容易一直拿着那些股票，等下一个季度，找理由说它们便宜所以继续持有，做这些拖累你的事情。

In down years, you're you're more tending to hold onto them longer, wait for another quarter, justify holding onto them because they're cheap, doing all these things that string you out.

所以选股和投资组合管理真的是一场情绪和心理的较量。

So it's such an emotional and mental game, stock picking and portfolio management.

Stig，你说得太对了，尤其是如果你经历过这些过程。

Stig You're so right though, especially if you've gone through the motions.

这真的很痛苦，你说得完全正确。

It's so painful and you're absolutely right.

就应该这么做。

That is the way one should be doing it.

抱歉打断你，只是想说你说得太对了，你绝对是对的。

Sorry for interrupting you just by telling you how right you are here, but you are absolutely right about

对。

that.

其实这是我有时会用的一种心理技巧，就是为了保持对投资组合的忠诚。

Three): Well, it's actually a mental hack I use in myself sometimes to kinda, again, like, stay true to the portfolio.

就像，嘿。

It's like, hey.

如果我今年年初到现在涨了30%，而不是跌了10%，我会怎么调整我的仓位？

If I was if I was up 30% this year year to date instead of down 10, like, how would I position myself differently?

你知道，对自己诚实，对投资组合也真诚。

You know, being honest with myself and genuine with the portfolio.

说实话，我可能会立刻把这个东西砍掉。

Well, the truth is I would probably cut this thing immediately.

所以这是一个重新调整视角的好方法。

And so it's a good way to reframe the lens.

但在现金仓位方面，我在书里讲了选股的五个技巧。

But on the cash position side, I talk about the five skills of stock picking in the book.

第一个技巧是识别，意思是在别人之前找到可操作的思路。

And the first skill is identifying, which means finding actionable ideas before others.

我觉得好的选股者总能找到可操作的思路，不管是在牛市还是熊市。

And I think good stock pickers always find actionable ideas, whether you're in a bull market or bear market.

所以我一直不喜欢持有大量现金这个想法，因为我觉得一般来说，如果你持有大量现金，要么是在做宏观押注，要么就是承认自己找不到好点子。

And so I've always disliked this notion of holding a large cash position because I do think in general, you're making a macro bet if you're holding a large cash position, or you're admitting that you can't find good ideas.

而这两种情况在我看来都不好。

And neither of those are good in my eyes.

实际上，你只是没有足够努力去找。

The reality is you just aren't looking hard enough.

你还没有掌握那个技能。

You haven't developed that skill.

你明白吗？

You know?

我们身边随时都有好点子，所以不管市场是什么类型都没关系。

There are great ideas all around us at all the time, so it doesn't matter what type of market we're in.

而且我觉得，真正优秀的选股者能找到它们。

And I think, you know, the really good stock pickers find them.

我的意思是，所以我从来不相信在投资组合中持有20%以上的现金，你知道，作为仓位。

I mean, so I've never believed in holding 20% plus cash, you know, as a position in the portfolio.

因为对我来说，如果我那样做，基本上就是我自己，因为我总是可以把更多的钱投到我投资组合里已经最好的想法上。

Because for me, it's like if I would do that, it's basically me because I can always just invest more into my best ideas that are already in the portfolio.

所以如果我持有20%的现金，我基本上是在说，我最好的想法在未来一两年内能跑赢现金。

So if I'm holding 20% cash, I'm basically saying my best ideas can outperform cash over the next one or two years.

所以我在理念上就是不认同这种心态。

So I just philosophically disagree with that type of mindset.

但与此同时，你也不能持有零现金。

At the same time, you can't hold zero cash.

所以我发现最合适的比例大概是3%到5%的现金。

And so I found the right mix is sort of like this three to 5% cash.

你明白吗？

You know?

这个比例足够让我买入半个大型新仓位，或者一个完整的小型新仓位。

It's enough that allows me to buy, you know, half of a large new position or all of a small new position.

它给了我自由，让我能够果断出手，因为作为一个选股者，你绝对不想处于一个无法执行新想法的境地，那不是一个好的心理状态。

It allows me the freedom to be able to pull the trigger because as a stock picker, you just don't wanna be in a place where you can't execute on a new idea, and that's just not a good mental spot to be in.

这就像把公牛的命根子给切了。

It's like cutting off a bull's you know what.

你懂吧？

You know?

这真的不好。

It's just not good.

所以我总是想保留足够的现金，至少能执行一个新想法。

So I always wanna have enough cash that I can execute at least on a new idea.

如果我想加仓，我就被迫卖掉我最不看好的那个想法。

And if I wanna add more to it, I'm forced to sell my least convicted idea.

多年来我发现这是保持投资组合诚实的好方法，因为我不是为了加仓而加仓。

I found over the years that that's a great way to keep my portfolio honest because I'm not just adding positions to the portfolio for the sake of adding them.

这逼着我做决定，做选择。

It's it's forcing me to make a decision, to make a choice.

另外，手头至少留一点现金，我在多次市场回调中都有体会，就是如果你没有现金去执行和利用回调，你会感到非常无助。

And the other thing about having just at least a little bit of cash on the sidelines, and I experienced this through many of the drawdowns, you know, is you you just feel helpless if you don't have cash to be able to execute and take advantage of the drawdown.

你知道吗？

You know?

如果我们都对自己诚实的话，你知道，当市场下跌时，如果你至少有一些现金，感觉就不会那么糟糕，因为你能执行操作并利用这次回调。

If we're all being honest with ourselves, you know, if you at least had some cash when the market's going down, it doesn't feel that bad because you're able to execute and take advantage of that drawdown.

真正让人沮丧的是，当你无法以更低的价格买入更多你喜欢的资产时。

Where it becomes just really disheartening is when you can't buy any more of the things you love lower.

而且我还发现，说实话，这甚至不需要是一笔能改变大局的实质性金额。

And what I found too is it doesn't even need to be quite honestly a material amount where it's needle moving in the end.

它更多是一种心理上的触发点。

It's just more of a mental trigger.

比如，即使只是买入100股，你知道，当某只股票比两周前下跌了20%时，那感觉就是很好。

Like, even if it's just buying a 100 shares, you know, of something when it was down 20% from two weeks ago, it's just it just feels good.

至少感觉你在利用这个情况。

At least feels like you're taking advantage of the situation.

这就是我说的保护你的情绪的意思。

That's what I mean by safeguarding your emotions.

对，是的。

Stig Yeah.

这纯粹是心理战。

It's just a mental game.

真的非常有意思。

It's absolutely fascinating.

伊恩，我跟你做个交易怎么样？

Ian, let me offer you a deal here.

假设我保证你的投资组合这辈子每年都能赚20%，但问题是，这辈子就一直是20%。

Let's say that I would guarantee that on your portfolio you'll be getting 20% the rest of your life, but here's the problem, it's going to be 20% the rest of your life.

咱们不谈通货膨胀。

We're not talking about inflation.

也不说突然来个恶性通胀，然后还是20%。

We're not talking about all of a sudden there's hyperinflation, then 20%.

不不不。

No, no, no.

你余生每年都能拿到20%的回报。

You can get 20% the rest of your life.

当然，如果你接受这个提议，你会变得极其富有。

Of course, you would be obscenely rich if you took that offer.

但另一方面，你就再也体会不到追逐的刺激了，因为那太没意思了。

But on the other hand, you would never get the thrill of the chase because it's not fun.

已经知道了。

Already know.

明年你还是会拿到20%。

Next year you're going get 20%.

那你会接受这个提议吗？

So would you take that deal?

这个问题很有意思。

It's a fascinating question.

而且也挺有哲学意味的。

It's quite a philosophical one too.

这个问题很有意思。

I appreciate that one.

我是个争强好胜的人，所以大家可能觉得我会说，我对20%的回报不满意。

I'm a competitive person, and so what people might want me to say is, I wouldn't be satisfied with 20%.

我能做得更好。

I can beat that.

我能超过20%。

I can beat 20%.

但事实是，你我都清楚，如果你一辈子都能拿到20%的回报，只要活得够久，你就能和巴菲特平起平坐了。

But the truth and the reality is you and I both know is, like, if you make 20% for the rest of your life, you're you're up there with Buffett, you know, if you live long enough.

所以我觉得，随着你年纪增长，时间会变成你最重要的资产。

So I think as also as you get older, time becomes your most important asset.

所以如果20%的回报是终身保障的，那就像是在挑战我如何以不同的方式度过我的时间。

And so if 20% was guaranteed for life, it's sort of like the challenge of spending my time differently.

你明白吗？

You know?

我可能会更注重影响力，而不是买卖决策。

I'd probably focus it more on impact and less on buy and sell decisions.

因为从某种意义上说，这就像告诉梅西，你可以赢得余生所有的世界杯。

Because in a way, would be like telling Messi, like, can win the rest of the World Cups for the rest of your life.

你甚至不用上场。

You don't even have to be on the pitch.

他们就会把奖杯直接给你。

You're just going to give it to you.

那感觉有点没劲。

It was like, That kind of suck.

但另一方面，这完全不是一回事。

But then on the other hand, it's not the same at all.

那也很棒。

That's amazing too.

总之，我想回到第一个问题，把话题绕回来。

Anyways, I wanted to go full circle back to the first question here.

所以我们回到2009年的那个鸡尾酒会上，有人说你不够好，保不住工作，而你当时也回应说，他可能也没本事靠自己的资金养活自己。

So we are back at this cocktail party here back in 2009 and someone said you weren't good enough to keep a job and you also replied that he probably wasn't skilled enough to support himself with his own capital.

你还在书里提到，99.9%的基金经理永远无法靠自己的策略维生。

And you also mentioned in your book that 99.9% of fund managers could never live off their own strategy.

我喜欢这句话，反正谁来这里是为了交朋友呢。

I love that statement, who's here to make friends anyways.

所以伊恩，你在2019年推出了一个基金，叫Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management，而且按你自己的书来说，你是从巅峰退下来的。

So Ian, you launched a fund back in 2019, Intelligent Fanatics Capital Management, and by your own book, you climbed down from the pinnacle.

那么，28岁的你当时不明白什么？

So what did the 28 year old not understand?

38岁的你又放弃了什么？

What did the 38 year old give up?

嗯，首先，可能就是在那个鸡尾酒会上的那次对话，让我把成为基金经理的决定推迟了五年，因为我不想变成那种人。

Well, first, probably just having that conversation at that cocktail party probably pushed back my decision to become a fund manager for an extra five years just because I didn't want to be like that guy.

对吧？

Right?

但我觉得有几个不同的原因。

But I think a few different reasons.

我的意思是，首先我得说，你知道，我做了十年的全职私人投资者。

I mean, first I would say, you know, I was a full time private investor for ten years.

十年之后，我已经快四十岁了。

And after ten years, I was in my late thirties.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以我还算年轻。

So I was still relatively young.

你知道吗？

You know?

我刚和别人合写了几本关于“狂热智人”的书。

I just co authored a couple books on Intelligent Fanatics.

我刚刚拒绝了外部资本十五年。

I'd just been saying no to outside capital for fifteen years.

我觉得最重要的一点是，我准备好迎接新的挑战了。

And I think the big one of the big things is just I was up for a new challenge.

而且这正好和我意识到什么样的投资者适合我的基金是同时发生的，我意识到应该是小企业主，或者那些拥有小企业的人。

And I think that kind of coincided around me realizing what type of investor would be right for my fund, which I realized it would be small business owners or those that own small businesses.

因为我发现小企业仍然是这样，现在我的基金里大多数投资者都是小企业主，或者他们以前拥有过小企业。

Just because what I found was small businesses still do, Most of the investors in my fund today are small business owners, or they owned one before.

你知道，他们对我的投资方式有共鸣，因为我就是个小企业投资者，我的小企业有股票代码，你可以在你的嘉信账户里买到。

You know, they have an affinity to my type of investing because I'm a I'm just a small business investor, my small business have ticker symbols that you can buy in your Schwab account.

所以他们对此有共鸣。

And so they have an affinity to that.

他们理解这一点。

They understand that.

他们也了解小企业的波动性。

They also know the volatility of small business.

对吧？

You know?

所以一旦我意识到这一点，我就差不多把这件事想通了，然后说，好吧。

And so once I realized that, then I kinda just closed the loop and said, okay.

也许，也许我能做到。

Maybe I maybe I can do this.

而且，你知道，我觉得我的策略也在随着时间不断演变。

And, you know, I think also, like, my strategy was evolving over time too.

而且你的过往成就也开始追赶你。

And your legacy starts to chase you as well.

我意识到如果我有更多资金，我就能产生更大的影响。

I realized I can make a bigger impact if I just had more capital.

Stig，那我得让你现场回答一下，因为我忍不住，Ian。

Stig So let me put you on the spot because I can't help myself, Ian.

因为我——

Because I-

来吧。

Go for it.

Stig，我查了你的公开文件。

Stig I pulled up your public filings.

你对合格客户收取1%的管理费，加上超过高水位线收益的20%。

And so you charge a 1% management fee plus 20% of gains above a high watermark for qualified clients.

然后你还有另一类，对其他人收2.5%。

And then you have the other class that's 2.5% for everyone else.

跟我们讲讲这个收费理念吧。

Walk us through one:thirty that fee philosophy.

其实，这个收费结构跟我们怎么起步有关。

I mean, the fees are a function of how we got started.

我最初是以SMA，也就是单独管理账户的形式成立基金的。

I started the fund as an SMA, separately managed accounts.

不是合伙制。

It wasn't a partnership.

所以在单独管理账户结构下，业绩费的税务处理就不太划算。

And so the tax treatment on performance fees is less desirable at a separately managed account structure.

比如说，SMA里的业绩报酬是现金支付的，不是以份额分配的形式。

For example, the performance fee in an SMA is paid in cash, not as allocation.

而且，这笔钱是按所得税来征税的，不是按资本利得税，不像在基金里那样，等你卖掉那些份额的时候才交税。

And then it's taxed at the income tax level, not capital gains level, whenever you would end up selling that allocation like it is in a fund.

基于这两个原因，我决定在刚开始做SMA的时候，就只收一个固定的2.5%管理费，不收业绩报酬，等规模做大了，再推出合伙制基金。

For those two reasons, I decided when we started with an SMA, just to charge a flat 2.5% management fee, no performance fee until we would reach a scale to then be able to launch the partnership.

然后我就可以加上那个1%加20%的结构。

And then I could layer on the one in 20.

所以现在，我推出基金之后，就把原来SMA的投资者带进了基金，还是按那个固定的2.5%费率来收。

And so today, once I launched the fund, I brought in the SMA investors into the fund under that same fee class of flat two and a half.

所以现在的基金，其实是固定2.5%和1%加20%两种费率混合在一起的。

And so the fund today is kind of a mixture of flat two and a half and one and twenty.

现在我们不再向任何人提供2.5%的费率了，因为我们只接受合格投资者。

Now we don't offer the two and a half to anybody anymore because we only take qualified clients.

但这就是为什么现在会有这种混合结构的原因。

But that's the reason why there's kind of this this mixture there.

所以那个一和二十，你知道，显然有高水位线跟它挂钩。

So the the one and twenty, you know, there's obviously a high watermark associated with that.

我们没有像一些基金经理那样的门槛收益率之类的。

We don't have a hurdle rate or anything like that, like some fund managers have.

我一直觉得，如果有人在头六个月就对我收20%的费用感到不满，那他们就不应该成为这个基金的投资者。

I've kind of believed that if somebody's that angry about paying me 20% in the first six, they shouldn't be the investor in the fund.

他们不是合适的人。

They're not the right type.

所以我也让这成为一个自我筛选的过程。

So I kind of let that be a self select in based on that as well.

但我的总体看法是，一和二十，嗯，

But my overall view one:thirty kind of

关于费用，我觉得你可以随意收费，只要你在扣除费用后表现优异。

on fees in general is I think you can charge whatever you want as long as you outperform net of fees.

你随着规模扩大，怎么考虑费用问题？

How do you think about fees as you're scaling up?

有些基金经理会说，到了这个资产管理规模，费用就是这样。

Some fund managers would say, Then at this OM, these are the fees.

然后到了那个资产管理规模，费用又会不一样。

And then at this AOM, the fees would look different.

然后我们一起成长。

And then we sort of grow together.

可能你还会面临不同的限制，因为你做的是微型股。

Perhaps you're going to have different constraints also because you're a microcap.

超过一定规模就比较棘手了，但那些投资大盘股或其他股票的经理就不会有这个问题。

It's sort of tricky above a certain threshold, which is not the case for one:thirty other managers who might be investing in mega caps or whatnot.

你怎么看这个问题？

How do you think about that?

我不知道，Stig，我就是喜欢简单一点。

I don't know, Stig, I just like to keep things simple.

我喜欢二十分之一这个比例，而且我觉得没必要去改变它。

I like the one in 20 bland and I don't really see a need to ever to change one:thirty that.

那只会带来更多麻烦。

It just provides more headaches.

你问这个的原因，接下来都是我的偏见。我跟不少基金经理聊过，很多人都说他们会降低费用，

The reason why you ask, and here comes all my biases, so I speak with quite a few finance managers, and I've heard quite a few say that they're going to lower the fees thirty:thirty the

随着管理资产规模增加，因为数字就是这样算的。

higher their AOM just because that's the way the numbers work.

我不禁想起你和Skip聊过的一件事，就是老前辈和新一代那种感觉，我们都要一起赢。

I can't help but think back on one of the things you talked about with Skip and being the old timers and then the newer touchy feeling we all have to win together.

我不一定知道什么是对什么是错，但作为投资者，这话听起来不太好听，我其实不太在乎其他投资者。

I don't necessarily know what the right or wrong way, but as an investor, this doesn't sound nice, but I don't really care about the other investors.

就像，不不不。

It's like, No, no, no.

我希望其他投资者也能赢。

I want the other investors to win.

Stig，我能理解，如果你是基金经理，你会觉得每个人都是你的伙伴，然后一起成长，然后降低费用，做各种事情。

Stig And I can understand if you're a fund manager, you feel like everyone is your partner and then you grow together and then you lower your fees and all sorts of stuff.

我理解这一点，但作为我自己也是LP，在这种情况下，部分资金是权益基金，我只想以最低的费用获得最好的业绩。

I understand that, but as an LP myself, in this case it's in part right funds, I just want to pay the lowest fees for the best performance.

对我来说，AUM是多少并不是目标。

It's not a goal for me that now the AOM is this.

作为LP，我总觉得看看基金的AUM是挺好的，这样可以了解你能投资多大规模的公司。

I always kind feel it's nice as an LP to see what the AUM is at the fund just in terms of what size of company you can invest in.

但并不是说我不明白，我觉得很多基金经理把AUM当作一种荣誉勋章，他们想向全世界展示。

But it's not like I don't know, I think it's a bats of honor for a lot of fund managers what their AUM is and they sort of want to show it to the world.

这几乎就像你去银行，他们用香槟什么的招待你，还有华丽的大理石装饰，你会想，这钱是谁出的？

It's almost like whenever you go to the bank and then they're showering you with champagne or whatever and they have the most marvelous marbled whatever, and you're like, I wonder who's paying for that?

哦，等等。

Oh, wait.

哦，等等。

Oh, wait.

那是我，作为这家银行的客户。

That's me as a customer in this bank.

那都是我付的钱。

I'm paying for that.

所以其实我并没有自己想的那么厉害。

So I'm actually not much of a big shot as I thought I was.

总之，我刚才想让你有点压力，但我觉得这挺有意思的。

So anyways, I tried to put you on the spot there, but I find it to be interesting.

我并不是对所有基金经理都这么说，因为我理解为什么这很让人同情，而且就像，哦，你把每个人都当作合作伙伴。

I don't say that to batch fund managers because I understand why it's very sympathetic and why it's like, Oh, you treat everyone as a partner.

作为有限合伙人，你其实挺孤立的。

As an LP, you're pretty isolated.

是的，你有所有这些活动，可以和其他有限合伙人见面，这些都挺好的，但大多数有限合伙人只想要三点：

And yes, you have all of these events and you can meet up with the other LPs and all that's good and well, but most LPs just want three:thirty

最低的费用，最好的业绩。

the lowest fees for the best performance.

总之，我不知道刚才有没有什么问题，但我就是想听听你的看法。

So anyways, I don't know if there was any question there, but I just want to throw it to you.

我认识很多基金经理，他们后悔一开始把费率定得太低，后来不得不提高，因为他们发现这样很难维持。而且，我觉得，我也不确定。

I mean, I know a lot of fund managers that regret starting off so low And then they end up raising it later because they realize it's just hard to and again, I think I don't know.

我觉得降低费率是个错误，因为我不知道未来会怎样，不是指业绩方面，而是我可能会组建一个团队，我需要有足够的财力去引进合适的团队成员。

I think it's a mistake to lower them just because I don't know what the future holds for me, not in regards to performance, but it's more so like I could see building somewhat of a team, and I need to have the wherewithal to be able to bring in the right team members.

你明白吗？

You know?

所以，你知道，那些顶尖人物都是这么做的。

So, you know, that's kind of what all the greats did.

比如，他们一开始都是单干，然后慢慢扩张。

Like, they started as a solo shop, you know, and then they expanded.

我不是说要加一百个人，但如果你管理十亿美元，你至少得有十个人跟你一起吧。

I'm not talking about adding a 100 people, but, you know, if you're imagining a a billion dollars, you probably have 10 other people with you at least.

对吧？

You know?

所以最终，你得建立一个团队，让你能够扩展、进化，扩大你的能力范围。

So eventually, you're gonna have to build a team that will allow you to scale, evolve, you know, push out your circle of confidence.

你懂吧？

You know?

这就是为什么巴菲特现在不只是做烟蒂股投资了。

That's why Buffett wasn't just doing cigar button investing now.

他还在做很多其他事情，几乎每种投资方式都有涉及。

He's doing a bunch of other things, almost every type of investing there is.

你得让自己有能力去扩大那个能力圈。

You have to allow yourself the capability to expand that circle of confidence.

我觉得，如果你把费用压得太低，那会很难。

And it's difficult, I think, if you're cramming down kind of that.

就像我说的，每个人都想付最低的费用，但他们真正想要的是最好的业绩。

And like I said, I mean, everybody wants to pay the lowest fees possible, but what they really want is the best performance possible.

所以我觉得这里有两个杠杆。

So I think there's two levers there.

对我来说，我专注于后者。

For me, I concentrate on the latter.