TIP849：平均回报仍能让你致富，与David Fagan

这大概就是工业社会的一种结构方式。

That's sort of like the way the industrial society has sort of structured it.

所以第一阶段是你依赖别人，通常是你的父母。

So you have stage one where you are depending on others, typically your parents.

然后第二阶段是别人依赖你，通常是你的孩子。

Then you have stage two where others are dependent on you, typically your kids.

然后我们积累财富。

And then we accumulate wealth.

到了第三阶段，差不多就是你自由了的时候。

Then stage three, that's sort of like whenever you're free.

我不知道你会不会说没有孩子就算自由，可能有些人听起来不太好，但基本上就是没人依赖你，你可以花你的积蓄了。

I don't know if you would call the child free, perhaps that sounds bad to some people, it's basically like no one's depending on you and you can spend down your savings.

斯提格，我和我妻子选择了一种稍微不同的方式。

Stig Now, my wife and I chose a slightly different approach.

我们是这样想的，首先，我们总是想工作。

The way we're thinking about this, the first thing is that we always want to work.

人们总是说67岁或者你们国家的退休年龄，那就是我退休的时候。

People have this 67 or whatever the retirement age is in your country, that's whenever I'm going to retire.

当然，没人能预测未来，但我有这个想法，我想一直工作。

Of course, no one can predict the future, but I have this thing, I want to work always.

我知道可能到了某个时候，这就不太可能了，我的健康会变差等等，但我是这么想的。

I understand that there's probably at some point in time whenever it won't be possible, my health would deteriorate and so on and so forth, but that is how I'm thinking about it.

而且我也非常清楚，我需要创造一份经营收入，

And I'm also very much thinking that I need to create one:thirty an

通常来自一个生意，然后从中获取利润，再投资到一个投资组合里。

operating income, typically from a business, and then take the profits from that and then invest into a portfolio.

那就是我的投资收入。

That is my investment income.

只要我们花的比经营收入少，即使投资回报平平，我们也不会陷入太大的麻烦。

As long as we underspend the operating income, we can't get too much in trouble even if the investment returns are so par.

当然，我可以给你讲一堆关于投资回报会多么好的漂亮话，但这不是我的重点，因为投资收入可能会有很大的波动。

Stig Of course, I can give you a song and a dance about why the investment returns would be fantastic, but that's not so much my point because the investment income can fluctuate quite a bit.

因为市场上涨，通常也意味着你的投资组合在涨，但这并不一定说明你就是天才，同样，第二年市场下跌也不代表你不会投资。

Because the market is up, which typically also means that your portfolio is up, it does not mean that you're necessarily a genius, but it also doesn't mean that you don't know how to invest because the market is down the next year.

所以，控制支出非常重要，不管是工资收入，还是我所说的经营收入，也就是你从生意里赚到的钱，都要尽量少花。

So that's why it's so important to underspend your income, whether that's from a job, underspending your salary or what I would call operating income, so underspending whatever you make in your business.

为什么建立投资组合这么重要呢？因为万一出了什么事，比如三十多岁的时候，

One of the things why it's so important that you also build up your portfolio is if something happens thirty:thirty with

你的健康出了问题，那你至少还能靠投资收益来维持生活。

your health, then you can hopefully live up your investment income.

大卫，我们俩聊过很多次的一个框架就是，我有一千种可能的情况。

One of the frameworks that you and I, David, have talked about quite a few times is that I have this thousands out of a thousand scenarios.

所以，斯蒂格，我当然希望自己的健康一直没问题，至少到七十岁、八十岁之前都好好的。

So Stig I would like to think that my health doesn't deteriorate at all or at least it doesn't happen before in my seventies, eighties, whatnot.

但如果现实一点想，一千种情况里，肯定有一些，希望不多，是会出现问题的，甚至可能在二三十岁的时候就出状况。

If I'm thinking realistically thousand out of a thousand scenarios, there are some, hopefully not a lot, where something goes wrong and something would happen to my health, even perhaps in my 20s, 30s and whatnot.

当你这么想的时候，也许我有点太悲观了，但我确实是这么想的。

And whenever you think about it like that, and perhaps I'm too morbid, but I was thinking about it like that.

我以前觉得，职业生涯早期得赚很多钱，然后靠复利滚起来，而且更看重赚到的第一块钱，而不是最后一块钱。

I thought I needed to make a lot of money early in my career and then lean into compounding and optimize a lot more for the first dollar than the last dollar.

Stig，我26岁毕业，毕业后先做了两份公司的工作，然后创办了两家公司，其中一家就是你现在听的播客TIP。

Stig So I graduated at age 26 and I had then two corporate jobs upon graduation and then started two companies, one of them TIP or with a podcast that you're now listening to.

Stig，我觉得我花了八年时间才真正搞明白怎么实现财务自由。

Stig I felt like it took me eight years for me to crack the code to achieve financial independence.

当我说财务自由的时候，你可能会想，八年？

And whenever I say financial independence, you're like, In eight years?

这听起来不太合理。

That doesn't make any sense.

并不是因为我银行账户里有几千万美元。

It wasn't because I had tens of millions of dollars in my bank account.

我不是那个意思。

That was not my point.

我的定义是，对我来说那是一个转折点，那时候我们的被动收入已经是家庭支出的两倍了。

The way that I would define it is it was the tipping point for me where I had doubled the passive income as our expenses in the household.

而且我也觉得我有三十到五十的蓝图来加速实现财务自由。所以我花了八年时间做到这一点。

And I also felt I had the blueprint thirty:fifty to accelerate that financial So it took me eight years to do that.

所以每当我回想起来，我觉得可以说我和我妻子在那八年里在财务上是很脆弱的。

And so whenever I think about it, I think you can reasonably say that my wife and I were financially vulnerable for those eight years.

如果我出了什么事，我想我们会陷入大麻烦。

If something had happened to me, I think we would be in a world of trouble.

我也想说，如果真的出了什么事，我妻子可能还好。

I would also say that if something would have happened, my wife would probably be okay.

首先，她比我聪明多了。

She's, for one, much smarter than me.

而且我们也到了可以重新开始的年龄，如果需要的话。

But also we would add an age where we could start over if that was needed.

这让我回到你之前提到的那个点，大卫，你七八岁的时候，花40美元买风火轮小车，那可能是你做过的最划算的买卖，因为它真的让你学会了怎么聪明地对待钱。

Stig It sort of gets me back to this point here you had, David, whenever you were only seven, eight years old, like $40 for Hot Wheels, it's probably the best purchase you ever made because it really sets you up for being smart with money.

当然，不想让你沉浸在八岁时丢了40美元的感受里。那可是你所有的钱，感觉就像世界末日一样。

Of course, don't want to revel in how you felt as an eight year old losing $40 That's all the money in the world and it feels like the end of the world.

但正如你所说，现在正是获得这些经验的好时机，因为Stig，最让我心痛的是，当你和那些刚退休的人聊天时，他们学会了怎么存钱，却没学会怎么打理这笔钱。

But as you alluded to, it's the right time to get those experiences because Stig what really breaks my heart is whenever you speak with someone who's newly retired and they've learned how to save money, but they haven't learned how to menace the money.

所以突然间，他们到了六十多岁，手里攥着一大笔钱，却不懂金融市场，也不知道怎么把这笔钱和日常开销匹配起来。

So all of a sudden they're standing there in their early, late 60s whatnot with a lump sum of money and they don't understand the financial markets and how to match that with the consumption.

然后他们就开始做一些疯狂的事情，比如去搞期权交易之类的，因为有人告诉他们退休后需要投资，而且他们有大把时间，可能还涉及到身份认同的问题，不知道该怎么打发时间。

All of a sudden they start doing these crazy things where they're going to do options trading or whatever because someone told them that now they need to invest in their retirement and have all this time on their hands and perhaps there's something with their identity and what should they be doing with their time.

这真的太糟糕了。

It's absolutely horrible.

我想我们都听过一些恐怖故事，但每次听到这些，我还是会感到心痛。

Think we all heard horror stories, but it's always breaks my heart whenever I hear that.

天哪，那确实让人心碎。

Oh man, that would be heartbreaking.

你提了一个很重要的点，我也见过这种情况。

And you make an important point, and I've seen this.

我是说，有些人到了晚年才积累起财富，但从来没有真正学会怎么当投资者。

I mean, some people, they arrive later in life with their capital, but without ever really learning how to become investors.

而且，你知道，有钱是一回事，但懂得怎么管理钱完全是另一回事。

And, you know, having money is one thing, but the knowing how to manage it is a completely other thing.

而且，你知道，这就是为什么我觉得我们需要培养投资者，而不仅仅是建立投资组合。

And, you know, that's why I think we need to build investors, not just portfolios.

很重要。

Important.

这也是我们今天做这些事情的原因。

And that's why we're doing what we're doing today.

我们正在努力向全世界普及这些知识。

We're we're trying to educate the world on this stuff.

而且，你知道，我在企业主身上经常看到这种情况。

And, you know, I I see this so often with business owners.

投资可以成为他们的第二职业，但如果风险没那么高，学起来会容易得多。

Investing can become their second career, but it would be a lot easier to learn if the stakes weren't as high.

而且，你知道，我喜欢跟人聊的一个话题就是前端总财富绩效的ABC。

And, you know, one of the things I like to talk about with people is the ABCs of front end total wealth performance.

ABC代表的是可用性、行为和配置。

And the ABCs stand for availability, behavior, and configuration.

它们在缩小财富创造过程中可能出现的表现不佳差距方面都发挥着非常重要的作用。

And they all play a very meaningful role in reducing this gap of underperformance that can happen in wealth creation.

稍微深入探讨一下可用性，一些错误可能会很快累积起来。

And just to dive into availability a little bit, the some of the mistakes, they can add up pretty quick.

你知道吗？

You know?

你是否已经清空了你的可投资储蓄余额？

Have you eliminated your investable savings balance?

你是否在试图把握市场时机？

Are you trying to time the market?

你的投资策略是否在资金到位之前就已经明确界定了？

Is your investment strategy is it clearly defined before the money even becomes available?

这就是我们在讨论的内容。

And this is what we're talking about.

而且，你知道，资金到位上的延迟会造成复利上的隐性缺口，这些缺口以后根本补不回来。

And, you know, delays in availability, they create these silent gaps in compounding that just can never get recovered later.

而且，你知道，开始之前先明确自己的行动计划很重要。

And, you know, it's important to know your action plan before you start.

而且，你知道，刚过去的这个冬天，我在审阅投资报表、准备客户财务报表和公司报税时，遇到了两个客户案例，真的把这个问题暴露得很清楚。

And, you know, there's two client experiences that I had this winter that just passed, you know, as I was reviewing investment statements and preparing the client's financial statements, corporate tax returns that really bring this into into light.

我有一个客户，自己管理着大约四百万美元、配置很均衡的指数型投资组合，另外还有将近一百五十万美元就躺在银行账户里，一点利息都没有，只有一点点GIC，也就是保本投资证，赚着微不足道的利息。

I had one client who had about $4,000,000 in a really well balanced index type portfolio that he self managed, and he also had close to $1,500,000 just sitting in a bank account earning no interest along with just a small GIC, that's a guaranteed investment certificate earning just a nominal amount of interest.

我在帮他做税务审查和财务报表的时候，问他打算怎么处理这些储蓄，或者为什么手里攥着这么多现金。

And when I asked him when we were doing his tax review and financial statements, I asked him what he wanted to do with his savings or why he was sitting on so much cash.

他说他在等一个更好的时机入市。

He said he was looking for a better time to buy the market.

这个我理解。

And I get that.

你知道，事后看决定总是很明朗，但知道这个人想在2025年投资，知道他遵循简单的指数策略，2025年，Stig，那一年不投资可是代价相当高的一年。

You know, decisions always look obvious in hindsight, but knowing that this person wanted to invest his money in 2025, knowing that he follows a simple index strategy, 2025, Stig, that was a pretty expensive year not to be invested.

所以，这让我跟他聊了聊报告上的收益率和实际财富增长之间的区别。

And, you know, this led me to talk to him about the difference between reported performance and actual wealth performance.

我看了他的投资回报，他通过ETF管理的那个投资组合，加上一点固定收益，年化收益率达到了18.2%。

So when I looked at his investment returns, he had compounded at 18.2% on the portfolio that he managed through his ETFs with a little bit of fixed income included in there.

你知道，这个回报率相当不错。

And, you know, that's a fantastic return.

但如果你把那些放在投资组合外面、没有投入市场的现金也算进去，这里有个关键点：他知道自己想投资这笔钱，而且像他这样的客户，还有二十年的工作时间。

But if you take into consideration the cash that was sitting outside the portfolio not being invested, and here's the clear point, knowing that he wanted to invest the money and knowing that this is a client like, he still has two decades of work ahead of him.

他的实际回报其实不是18.2%。

His return, it wasn't really 18.2%.

更接近15%。

It was closer to 15%.

我强调这一点，并不是说这些回报率不好。

And I highlight this not because those rates of return, they're not good.

我只是想指出，这里确实存在一个差距。

I'm I'm just highlighting it because there's actually a gap.

所以，券商报表上显示的投资回报并不一定等于实际的结果。

And so reported performance on a broker statement doesn't necessarily equal the actual outcomes.

这就是我想强调的重点。

And that's what I'm trying to hammer home with this.

为了更深入地说明这一点，我还有另一个客户的例子。

And just to go into this a little bit more, I had another example with a client.

她在2024年刚成立公司。

She had freshly incorporated in 2024.

她收入很高，但生活很节俭，在公司成立的第一年年底，她的储蓄率非常高。

She makes a very good income and lives modestly, and she had a tremendous savings rate at towards the end of her first year of incorporation.

当她提到要开设自主投资账户时，在2025年这个过程花了相当长的时间。

And when she talked about getting herself directed investment account set up, it took a fair amount of time to do this in 2025.

我就不详细讲开设账户的所有复杂流程和具体操作方法了。

And I won't I'm not gonna get into all the complexities around setting that up and how to do it.

这个过程非常缓慢，而且会有很多来回的文书工作。

It's very lethargic and there can be a lot of paperwork back and forth.

我明白，这确实很复杂。

And I get that, it is complicated.

但结果就是，在2025年，这个人几乎有十一个月都没有投资，尽管她年初就有大量可投资资产。

But what ended up happening is that for almost eleven months, this individual just wasn't invested in 2025, even though she started the year with the significant amount of investable assets.

再说，事后诸葛亮当然容易，但2025年不投资，代价真的很大。

And, again, hindsight is brilliant, but 2025 was a really expensive year not to be invested.

如果她1月1日就把现金放在她的平衡指数基金策略里——她2025年就是这么做的——她大概能赚15%左右。

And had she simply had the money sitting that was in cash on January 1 in her balance index fund strategy, which she is doing in 2025, she probably would have made around 15%.

如果把这错失的一年回报在接下来的四十年里复利计算，我这里只是随便给个利率，但如果我们用8%来算一下，你知道，这可能是她职业生涯后期一个三百万美元的错误或损失，就仅仅因为第一年错过了回报。

And if you simply compound that one year of missed return over the next forty years, and here here I am just throwing a rate out, but if we use 8% just to put some quants around this, you know, it's probably gonna be a $3,000,000 mistake or a mission on the back end of her career, just from that first year missing returns.

不过，对这个人来说，不幸的是，这不会对她的生活产生实质性的影响，但这正好向我们展示了沃伦和查理多年来一直想告诉我们的：要投资，要持续投资，还有最重要的一点，不要打断复利。

Now, unfortunately for this individual, it's not gonna make a material difference in their life, but it just shows us all the things that Warren and Charlie have been trying to tell us for years about getting invested, staying invested, and here's the big one, not interrupting compounding.

你知道，这些东西，就是持续复利所需要的软技能。

And, you know, all this stuff, these are the soft skills that it takes to relentlessly compound.

总之，这就是我想通过这个例子强调的几个故事。

And, anyway, those are a couple stories I just wanted to hammer home with availability.

但这不仅仅是钱放在银行外面的事。

But it's not just about money sitting outside the bank.

我的意思是，正如你所说，Stig，很多人是在人生后期，或者经历重大人生事件后，才带着钱来的。

I mean, to your point, Stig, people arrive later in life with their money and through major life events.

而且，你知道，你必须准备好去投资。

And, you know, you've gotta be ready to invest.

而我学到的最重要的投资教训之一，来自几年前的一位客户，那个人卖掉了自己的公司。

And one of the most important investment lessons I have ever learned, and this came from a client a couple years ago, was from someone who sold their business.

四十多年来，她和丈夫一起经营着一家非常成功的小企业。

And for more than forty years, she and her husband had built just a wonderfully successful small business.

那是他们的生计。

And it was their livelihood.

那真的是他们的身份认同。

It was really their identity.

很多创业者都是这样。

This happens with so many entrepreneurs.

而且说实话，那是他们唯一熟悉的财务世界。

And really, it was the only financial world they had ever known.

但最终，他们卖掉了公司，拿到了一笔好几百万甚至上千万的巨款。

But eventually, they sold it, and they received a multi, multimillion dollar payout.

从外人的角度看，斯蒂格，这简直就是梦想成真。

And from the outside looking in, Stig, I mean, it looked like a dream come true.

你知道，在财务上，他们算是赢了。

You know, financially, they had won.

算一算的话，他们的钱已经够用了。

Like, when you do the math, they had their number.

但几年后，她对我说了一句话，我至今难忘。

But a few years later, she said something to me that I've never forgotten.

她说，大卫，有时候我真希望当初没卖掉。

She said, David, sometimes I wish I hadn't sold.

我记得当时听到这话很震惊，不是因为钱不够，而是……

And I can remember being taken back by that comment, not because like, it wasn't because she didn't receive enough money.

他们确实卖了，而且不是因为交易出了问题，比如卖方融资或者别的什么。

They did, and it wasn't because the transaction went poorly with a vendor take back or anything like that.

不是的。

It didn't.

你知道，原因比那要深得多。

You know, the reason was so much deeper than that.

她花了四十年学习如何经营自己的生意，但几乎没有花时间学习如何在没有生意的情况下生活。

She had spent forty years learning how to run her business, but virtually no time learning how to live without her business.

她很快就得学会理解收益率和提款率，阅读券商报表，还要应对与财富顾问的新对话。

And she quickly had to learn how to understand yields and withdrawal rates, read broker statements, manage new conversations with wealth advisors.

说实话，这对他们家庭来说，在人生这么晚的阶段，真的非常难以承受。

And quite honestly, it was very overwhelming for their family at this late late stage in their life.

而且，你知道，那次对话以及后来的观察，真的让我学到了一个永远不会忘记的道理。

And, you know, that conversation and, you know, the subsequent observations, it it just taught me something that I've never forgotten.

你不应该在风险最高的时候才第一次学习投资。

You don't want to learn investing for the first time when the stakes are the highest.

你想想看。

You know, think about this.

我是说，他们在职业生涯很晚的时候，一次性拿到了退休金。

I mean, they received their retirement nest egg in one lump sum late, late in their career.

这其实又回到了资金可用性的问题，你的钱到底什么时候才能真正动用。

You know, this just ties all the way back into availability and when does your capital actually become available.

因为那些时刻，真的非常重要。

Because those moments, they matter a ton.

对吧？

You know?

我们现在说的是企业被卖掉的情况，但你也可能遇到继承遗产。

Here we are, we're talking about a business gets sold, but you could have an inheritance.

或者你卖掉一套房产，比如你之前提到的那套旧金山的房子，卖了300万美元。

Or maybe you sell a property, that that San Francisco property for $3,000,000 that you talked about.

或者，天有不测风云，比如突然离婚了。

Or or heaven forbid something life changing or unexpected, like a divorce happens.

然后突然间，你就坐拥一大笔资金。

And then all of a sudden you're sitting there with a whole bunch of capital.

然后问题就变成了，那我接下来该怎么办？

And then the question becomes, well, what do I do now?

而且，你知道，问题在于，人们常常需要做出的那些重大财务决策，往往发生在他们人生中最情绪化的时刻。

And, you know, the problem is that some of our biggest financial decisions that people often have to make, they happen during some of the most emotional times of their lives.

想想这些场景：卖掉公司、离婚、搬到全国各地。

I mean, think of these scenarios, selling a business, getting a divorce, moving across the country.

而且，你知道，当生活变得复杂，不确定性就会造成拖延。

And, you know, when life gets complicated, uncertainty, it's gonna create delays.

而且，你知道，我见过有人把大笔钱放在现金账户里好几年，就为了决定怎么处理、什么时候投资、怎么投资。

And, you know, I've seen people leave large amounts of money just sitting in cash for years while trying to decide what to do with it, when to invest, how to invest.

而且，正如我们所知，这种拖延代价巨大。

And that delay, as we know, has a huge cost.

你明白吗？

You know?

现金让人感觉安全。

Cash feels safe.

短期内，它总是让人感觉安全，而且几个月内这样做可能也不是什么坏决定。

And in the short term, it's always gonna feel safe, and it's probably not a bad decision over a few months or so.

但长期来看，闲置的现金可能会悄悄成为人们做过的最昂贵的决定之一。

But over long periods of time, idle cash, it can quietly become one of the most expensive decisions people ever make.

我的意思是，市场和复利不会等你未来的自己。

I mean, the market and compounding isn't gonna wait in your your future self.

你想想十年后的自己，那些年你是回不来的。

You look at yourself in ten years from now, you just can't get those years back.

这也是我喜欢这项查尔斯·施瓦布研究的原因之一。

And, you know, this is one of the reasons I love this Charles Schwab study.

择时交易有用吗？

Does market timing work?

我很喜欢这个研究。

I love it.

这真的很有意思。

It's super interesting.

在这项研究中，彼得·完美，他连续二十年每年都能精准地抓住市场的最低点，选择当年最低的那天进行投资。

In the study, Peter Perfect, he was perfectly able to time the market bottom every year for twenty year period and pick the lowest day of that year to invest for twenty years in a row.

完美的时机，完美的入场点。

And perfect timing, perfect entry points.

但让我着迷的不是彼得·完美，因为当然，我们没人能成为彼得·完美。

But what fascinated me was not Peter Perfect because, of course, none of us can be Peter Perfect.

我们知道没有人有水晶球。

We know one has the crystal ball.

而是拉里·犹豫。

It was Larry Linger.

拉里·犹豫一直在等待更好的投资机会，他总以为更低的价格就在眼前。

Larry Linger kept waiting for a better opportunity to invest, and he just assumed lower prices were always gonna be around the corner.

而随着时间的推移，等待的代价变得巨大无比。

And then over time, that cost of waiting just became enormous.

而且，你知道，我鼓励听众们去简单看一下那个。

And, you know, I'd encourage the listeners to just have a quick peek at that.

那是一份很短的备忘录。

It's a short memo.

它讲的是Matthew Monthly和Ashley Action，以及如何开始投资市场。

It talks about Matthew monthly and Ashley Action and just how to get invested in the market.

而且，你知道，我觉得这里面有一个非常重要的教训，那就是财富创造往往不在于追求完美，而在于参与。

And, you know, I think there's a really important lesson in in all of this that, you know, wealth creation, it's often less about perfection and more about participation.

而且，你知道，这就是为什么我认为投资中的行为层面如此重要。

And, you know, that's why I think the behavioral side of investing is just so important.

你知道，一个人可以有很棒的投资策略，但如果钱总是放在场外，没有投进去，那就只是理论上的。

You know, a person can have a fantastic investment strategy, but if the money is just always sitting on the sideline and not getting invested, it just becomes theoretical.

我不知道，Stig，当未来总是充满不确定性时，你怎么让人们愿意参与进来？

And I don't know, Stig, how do you get people comfortable participating when the future is just always uncertain?

我们永远不知道未来会是什么样子。

We will never know what the future is gonna look like.

我们快速休息一下，听听今天赞助商的介绍。

Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

作为投资者，有一个方面我觉得大家关注得不够，那就是作为投资研究员，持续提升自己其实挺难的。

One part of being an investor that I don't think gets enough attention is how hard it can be to continue to improve as an investment researcher.

就我自己来说，每次和行业专家或基金经理聊完一场高质量对话后，脑子里总是塞满了各种想法。

And for myself, I often find that when I finish a great conversation with some industry expert or fund manager, my head is full of ideas.

但等我坐下来准备整理的时候，一半想法已经忘了。

But by the time I sit down to write it all up, half of them are already gone.

所以我一直在用 Plaud Note Pro。

That's why I've been using Plaud Note Pro.

这是个很小的设备，贴在手机背面，能录下对话，然后给我一份干净、可搜索的摘要。

It's a small device that sticks to the back of my phone and captures the conversation and hands me back a clean searchable recap.

关键点、后续要跟进的事、还有我通常想采取行动的内容，它都整理好了。

And so the key points, the follow ups, the things I usually want to act on, it has all of that.

这样我就能专注于当下，不用忙着记笔记，反正那些笔记我之后也看不懂。

And that allows me to stay present in the room instead of scribbling notes that I won't be able to read back later.

而且我的字是出了名的难看。

And I notoriously have very bad handwriting.

所以它改变了我的准备方式和跟投资者的后续沟通。

And so it's changed how I prep and how I follow-up with investors.

它也是为那些认真对待对话的人设计的。

It's also built for people who take conversations seriously.

企业级的安全保障。

Enterprise grade security.

所以如果你在录跟客户或行业联系人的通话，它也完全能搞定。

So if you're recording calls with clients or industry contacts, that's covered too.

所以如果你经常开会、打电话、做访谈，不妨去看看。

So if you live in meetings, calls, and interviews, we'll give it a look.

访问 plaud.ai/wsb，使用代码 w s b 享受九折优惠。

Go to plaud.ai/wsb and use code w s b for 10% off.

就是 plaud.ai 斜杠 WSB，代码 WSB。

That's plaud.ai slash WSB code WSB.

而且，在录对话之前一定要征得对方同意。

And always get consent before you record a conversation.

对在线交易感兴趣，但还没迈出第一步？

Curious about online trading, but haven't taken the first step yet?

你不是一个人，Plus500期货是个不错的起点。

You're not alone, and Plus500 futures is a great place to start.

期货市场变化很快，通过Plus500，你可以探索热门资产，比如石油、黄金、标普500、比特币等等。

The futures markets are moving fast and with Plus500 you can explore popular assets like oil, gold, S and P 500, Bitcoin, and more.

从加密货币到大宗商品，总有新鲜事发生。

From crypto to commodities, there's always something happening.

这个平台操作非常简单，你可以直接在手机上随时交易。

The platform is super easy to use, so you can trade on the go right from your phone.

你只需100美元就能开始，马上投入其中。

You can get started with just $100 and jump into the action.

看到什么有趣的东西了吗？

See something interesting?

账户开通后，只需几下点击就能开始交易。

Once your account is open, you can trade it in just a couple of clicks.

如果你还没准备好，也可以用免费模拟账户先练练手。

And if you're not quite ready yet, you can practice with a free demo account.

没有风险，也没有压力。

No risk, no pressure.

凭借二十年的经验，Plus500让交易变得比以往任何时候都更容易。

With twenty years of experience, Plus500 makes trading more accessible than ever.

去plus500.com看看吧。

Check it out at plus500.com.

期货交易涉及亏损风险，并非适合所有人，不是所有申请者都能通过审核。

Trading in futures involves risks of loss and is not suitable for everyone, not all applicants will qualify.

Plus500，交易，加一点。

Plus500, it's trading with a plus.

每周我们都会在节目中分析一些公司，并问同一个问题：管理层真的在高效运营这家公司吗？

Every week we analyze companies on this show and ask the same question, is management actually running this business efficiently?

对于目前大多数公司来说，诚实的答案是，那些领先的公司正是那些把人工智能应用到日常事务中的公司。

Here's the honest answer for most companies right now, the ones pulling ahead are the ones putting AI to work on the everyday stuff.

这正是 Netsuite Next 的初衷。

That's exactly what Netsuite Next was built for.

Netsuite Next 在你最需要的时候提供洞察。

Netsuite Next surfaces insights exactly when you need them.

它让智能代理处理日常任务和问题，并允许你用通俗的语言提出复杂问题，就像跟一位知识渊博的同事交谈一样。

It puts agents to work on routine tasks and problems, and it lets you ask complex questions in plain language like talking to a knowledgeable colleague.

但技术只是故事的一部分。

But technology is only part of the story.

人工智能也在重塑人们和团队的合作方式，而这种转变已经在进行中。

AI is also reshaping how people and teams work together and that shift is already underway.

今天，专家制作的商业指南就在你手中。

Expert created business guide in your hands today.

它叫做《对齐：AI 如何改变日常工作》，现在你可以完全免费获得。

It's called Aligning for the How AI is Changing Everyday Work, and right now it's yours absolutely free.

在里面，你会发现AI如何重塑整个组织的工作方式，以及如何让你的业务从中受益。

Inside, you'll discover how AI could reshape work across your entire organization, and how to position your business to prosper from it.

我在用这个，你也应该试试。

I use this and you should too.

如果你的收入至少达到七位数，就去netsuite.com/tip免费获取我们的商业指南《为智能体时代做好准备：AI如何改变日常工作》。

If your revenues are at least in the 7 figures, get our free business guide aligning for the agentic era, how AI is changing everyday work at netsuite.com/tip.

这份指南在netsuite.com/tip免费提供，netsuite.com/tip。

The guide is free to you at netsuite.com/tip, netsuite.com/tip.

好了，

All right,

回到节目。

back to the show.

Stig，对，那个该死的水晶球总是坏的，至少我的是这样。

Stig Yeah, that darn crystal ball, it's always broken, at least mine is.

太糟糕了。

It's terrible.

我的也是。

Mine is too.

Stig，每次我们跟人聊天的时候，如果能联系到他们自己的亲身经历，我觉得那是最好的方式。

Stig Whenever we're speaking with someone, if there's any way we can point back to the person's lived experiences, and I think that's the best approach.

当然，在理想情况下，那个人有写日记的习惯，那你就可以让他们回想十年前，看看当时写了什么，然后看看之后发生了什么。

Course, in a perfect world, that person is journaling and you can then ask them, Hey, go back ten years and then see what you wrote and then what happened since.

当然，现实世界并不完美，不是所有人都会写日记，即使我们去世了，可能也不会记录下财务上的担忧之类的。但也许我们可以让他们回想十年前，比如当时对养孩子、换工作或者搬新家有多不确定，然后看看后来发生了什么，以及他们是怎么适应的。

Of course, the world isn't perfect and not all of us journal even if we're dead perhaps we don't journal about the financial worries or whatnot that we have, but perhaps we can point back to say ten years ago how unsure you were of raising your kids or changing jobs or move to a new house, and then looking back what has happened and how you have adapted to that accordingly.

但是David，我们接触的很多人都是企业主，他们对生意非常非常了解，但对金融市场可能就没那么熟悉了，而且觉得那有风险，尤其是因为未来总是充满不确定性。

But David, many people we speak to are business owners and they understand the business really, really well, less so perhaps the financial markets and they find them risky, especially because the future is always uncertain.

他们没有任何接近完美信息的东西。

Don't have anything that resembles perfect information.

三十比五十，但也许我们可以提醒他们，他们在信息不完整的情况下做过多少商业决策。

Thirty:fifty But perhaps we can remind them how many business decisions they've made with imperfect information.

比如招人、启动新项目、进入新市场，这些都是在结果不确定的情况下做的。

It could be hiring people or starting a new project, moving into a new market, and they've always done that with an uncertain outcome.

关键总是分散风险、把握概率，从这个角度看，金融市场也没什么不同。

It was always about diversifying, playing the probabilities, and in that sense, it's not that different in financial markets.

你不可能等到一切都明朗了再行动。

You simply can't wait until everything becomes clear.

那一天永远不会来。

That day never happens.

你必须管理好自己的风险。

You have to manage your risk.

经营生意就是这样。

That's the way you run a business.

在金融市场里打拼也是这样。

That's the way you navigate in financial markets.

当然，大多数人都不喜欢听你讲统计数据。

Of course, most people don't like whenever you throw statistics at them.

就像你劝人捐款时，不能光说有一亿人需要帮助，对吧？

It's for the same reason that you can't say that let's say they want people to donate to charity and then you can talk about there's 100,000,000 thirty:fifty

非洲有孩子在挨饿。

children starving in Africa.

这个数据起不了作用。

That stat is not going to work.

听起来很惨，但确实没用。

It sounds terrible, but it's not going to work.

这肯定不是比说有一百万孩子挨饿有效一百倍的说法。

It's certainly not an argument that's 100 times as effective as saying there's a million kids starving.

事情不是这样运作的。

It just doesn't work like that.

如果你能讲一个真实的故事，比如尼日利亚十岁的阿米娜，她和妈妈怎么分最后一把米，因为她们的两个弟弟需要吃饭。

If you can tell a real life story of, let's say, 10 year old Amina from Nigeria and how her and her mother divide the last handful of rice because their two younger brothers, they need to be fed.

如果你能呼吁说，你能为阿米娜做些什么？

If you can appeal and say, What can you do to help Amina?

不是那一亿人，而是阿米娜，那情况就完全不同了。

Not the 100,000,000 others, but Amina, then you have a very different case.

我知道我有点东拉西扯，但跟人说话的时候其实也差不多，你得搞清楚什么能打动他们，比如说我们现在聊的是个人理财。

I know I'm sort of going all kinds of directions here, but it's not too different whenever you're speaking to another person because you have to figure out what makes them tick, whether it's In this case, we're talking about personal finance.

这更多是关于个人，而不是理财。

It's more personal than it's finance.

当然，有些人喜欢数据。

Stig Of course, some people like statistics.

有些人喜欢看数字，想知道自己买什么卖什么。

Some people like to see the numbers and they want to know what they're buying and selling.

这些对他们来说都很有道理，他们希望这样获取信息，但大多数人不是这样的。

All makes sense to them and that is how they want to be informed, but most people are not wired that way.

大卫，你可能会遇到的那些人，他们不想听那些数字。

All those people you may speak to, David, don't want to hear about all those numbers.

他们可能会问你：你是怎么投资你妻子的退休金的？

Might be asking you, How do you invest your wife's retirement?

他们会想：如果这对大卫的妻子来说够好，那对我的妻子可能也够好。

It's like, If it's good enough for David's wife, perhaps it's good enough for mine.

这是我们能产生共鸣的事情，我们需要因人而异地去沟通。

It's something we can relate to and we need to meet people where they are.

Stig，以前有过这样一个宣传活动。

Stig Back in the day, there were this campaign.

那是好几年前的事了，所以我得暴露一下我的年龄，但确实有个很棒的宣传活动叫“朋友不让朋友酒驾”。

It's quite a few years ago now, so I'm going to display my A tier, but there was this wonderful campaign called Friends Don't Make Friends Drive Drunk.

当然，我在这里可以开玩笑地说，他们漏掉了一个补充条款：“朋友帮助朋友实现财务目标”。

And of course, I can say here tongue in cheek that they forgot the addendum, Friends Help Friends Achieve Their Financial Goals.

至少那是我会做的宣传活动。

At least that is the campaign that I would have run.

Stig，你说得对，David，这不是靠市场时机做到的。

Stig To your point, David, you don't do that from time in the market.

这是靠长期投资，并且帮助你的朋友在不确定性中坚持投资，因为未来总是充满不确定性的。

You do that from time in the market and you help your friends stay invested despite uncertainty because the future is always uncertain.

但David，你是怎么看待这个问题的呢？

But how do you think about this, David?

好，那我回到你说的朋友帮助朋友实现财务目标这个话题。

David Well, let me go back to your friends help friends achieve their financial goals.

我很喜欢这个说法。

I love that.

其实，这在很多方面就是我人生的写照，Stig。

I mean, in many ways that's been the story of my life, Stig.

我在公共会计领域干了二十多年了，你知道，我见过小企业主各种各样的投资方式，五花八门，几乎你能想到的都有。

I've been in public practice for over two decades now and, you know, I've seen a hodgepodge of just about every investment you can imagine with small business owners.

而且，你知道，增加净资产的方法有很多。

And, you know, there's so many ways to grow your net worth.

对我来说，一切始于引导人们走向繁荣之路。

And for me, it starts with leading people on their path to prosperity.

你知道，就是帮助人们找到一种真正符合他们个人特点的投资方式。

You know, it it's helping people find a way to invest that actually aligns with who they are as an individual.

我年纪越大，这一点对我来说就越重要，不仅是对我自己，还要理解客户的性格，以及他们需要如何投资，才能符合他们自身的特质。

The older I get, that's becoming extremely important to me, not only myself, but understanding clients' temperaments and and how they need to invest that's wired for their own composition.

因为你知道，投资方式必须让你觉得自然，这样当市场艰难时，你的策略对你来说仍然合理，猜猜对谁？

Because, you know, you have to invest in a way that feels natural enough so that when times do get hard, your strategy still makes sense to guess who?

对你。

You.

而且，你知道，我妻子的投资账户，还有我女儿，她19岁开始投资，在新斯科舍这里就可以做到。

And, you know, for my wife's investment account and now my daughter who started investing, she became 19, you could do that here at Nova Scotia.

这意味着采用非常系统化的指数基金策略。

That means investing in a very methodical index fund strategy.

它简单，容易跟随，不需要太多猜测。

It's simple, it's just easy to follow and it doesn't require a lot of guesswork.

而且，你知道，有很多方法可以让资本增值。

And, you know, there are so many ways to compound capital.

我们有公开市场。

We have public markets.

我们有企业所有权、房地产、私募投资、我们自身的人力资本，等等等等。

We have businesses ownership, real estate, private investments, our own human capital, and the list goes on.

而且就算在公开市场里，也有很多东西可以聊。

And even within the public markets, there's thousands of things that we can talk about there.

对我来说，我把投资组合的表现和财富的创造分开来看。

And for me, I separate portfolio performance from wealth creation.

投资组合的表现当然很重要，但财富创造的范围要广得多。

Portfolio performance, it matters a ton, but wealth creation is so much broader than that.

而且，我这么想也是从实际出发，因为我也喜欢用净资产来衡量一个人的表现，因为净资产涵盖的远不止投资收益。

And, you know, I root this in practicality because, you know, I also I like to use net worth as a useful barometer in in for assessing performance for someone, you know, not it doesn't net worth, it it captures so much more than just the investment returns.

想想看，净资产都包含了什么。

Like, think about what net worth captures.

它包含了你的储蓄率、消费决策、税务效率、商业决策、债务管理、投资，还有生活方式的选择，这个清单可以一直列下去。

It it's gonna capture your savings rate, your spending decisions, tax efficiency, your business decisions, debt management, investments, and and lifestyle choices, the list just keeps going on and on and on and on.

换句话说，当你看到净资产的时候，它把你整个财务生活都呈现出来了。

And, you know, in other words, when you look at it, it brings your whole financial life into picture.

我明白，净资产也不是完美的。

And I get it, like, net worth, it isn't a it it's not perfect.

还有结婚、离婚这些情况。

There's marriage, divorce.

你可能继承一笔钱，也可能做慈善，把钱都捐出去。

You can inherit money, you could be philanthropic and and give all your money away.

还有健康问题，各种事情都可能影响这个数字，或者让它失真。

There's health issues, all kinds of things that can affect the number or distort the number.

你知道，如果有人把钱都捐了，那我们可能得单独算一笔账。

You know, if someone's giving away all their money, maybe we need a separate calculation for that.

那会是个很棒的故事。

And that would be a a fantastic story.

但说到私人投资，估值很难做到准确。

But and with private investments, it's just hard to get accurate valuations.

它们永远不像公开交易的股票投资组合那么清晰。

They're never as clean as publicly traded stock portfolio.

但我想说的是这个。

But here's my point.

在很长一段时间里，比如说十五到二十年，如果没有宏观层面的生活变故，你的净资产的方向和速度，能说明很多关于一个人的情况。

Over a long period of time, say, say, fifteen or twenty years, if there's no macro level life distortions, the direction and velocity of your net worth, that can tell a lot about someone.

你懂吗？

You know?

所以当我考虑自己的回报和机会时，我更多想的是，不是这个投资组合回报了多少，而是我的总净资产是否在以一种支持我努力建立的生活的方式复利增长。

So when I think about my own returns and opportunity sets, I think less about what did this one portfolio return and more as is my total net worth compounding in a way that supports the life that I'm trying to build?

这往往是一个很不同的问题。

And that tends to be a very different question.

而且，你知道，这就是为什么我认为净资产虽然不完美，但在你人生的积累阶段，它可以是一个非常实用的记分卡。

And, you know, that's why I think that net worth while imperfect, it can be a very practical scorecard during the accumulation phase of your life.

那么，Stig，你怎么看一个人的机会集合？

And, you know, how do you think, Stig, how do you think about a person's opportunity sets?

当你观察财富创造时，你觉得投资组合回报和其他资本增值方式各占多大比重？

And when you look at wealth creation, how much do you put on portfolio returns versus other ways that you can compound your capital?

你是个企业家，涉足各种领域。

Here you are, you're an entrepreneur and you're into all kinds of things.

那就说说你的看法吧。

Maybe just share your thoughts on that.

斯提格，是的。

Stig Yeah.

大卫，我特别喜欢这个问题。

I absolutely love that question, David.

谢谢你问这个。

Thank you for asking.

前几天我和我们智囊团社区的一位成员聊天，我们讨论了投资组合回报以及如何追踪这些回报等等。

I was speaking with a member of our Mastermind Community here the other day and we discussed portfolio returns and how to track them and so on and so forth.

我告诉他我是按金额加权来投资，他完全不明白我为什么要这么做。

I told him that I was dollar weighting my investments, and he simply could not understand why I would do that.

对我来说，这完全合理。

To me, that makes complete sense.

如果我在一只股票上投了10美元，我给它的权重就是另一项投资1美元的10倍。

If I have $10 invested in a stock, I give them 10 times the weight of $1 invested in another investment.

斯提格

Stig

对他来说，这完全没有道理。

him, it doesn't make any sense at all.

对我来说，这完全说得通。

To me, it made all the sense in the

现在我们又回到了个人理财这个话题，我很抱歉再说一次，很多时候它更多是关于个人，而不是财务。

Now we're also back to this thing here about whenever it comes to personal finance, I'm sorry to say it once again, it's very often just personal than it's finance.

但对我来说，我看这个问题的角度是，我想说的第一点是，我投资组合的目标是保持财务独立。

But to me, think the lens that I'm watching this through is that I think the first thing I would say is that my goal of my portfolio is to preserve financial independence.

我再次冒险说一句，金钱在传统意义上可能买不到幸福。

Again, I'm sticking my neck out here and saying that money may not buy happiness in the conventional sense.

你不能去杂货店买价值一千美元的幸福。

You can't go down to the grocery store and ask for $1,000 worth of happiness.

事情不是那样运作的，但你仍然需要跨过一定的门槛，达到一定的生活水平，然后你可以在不同的关系之上建立更多，等等等等。

It doesn't really work like that, but you still need a certain threshold to cross the certain threshold to have a certain standard of living, then you can build on top of different relationships and so on and so forth.

你看，我可能想得太像工程师了，总是想着怎么优化幸福感。

You can tell, I think way too much like engineer perhaps about how I think about optimizing for happiness here.

但对有些人来说，超过一定金额后，钱就是关于赢，关于玩一场有趣的游戏。

But for some people, above a certain amount of money, it's about winning and it's about playing a fun game.

钱真的是衡量你游戏玩得有多好的绝佳记分牌，因为它太容易量化了。

Money is just such a great scorecard for knowing how well you play the game because it's so easy to measure.

但我在看投资组合、回报和复利增长净值时，是非常务实的。

But I'm pretty pragmatic whenever it comes to looking at a portfolio, the returns of that and then compounding your net worth.

我总是从财务目标开始。

I always start with financial goals.

如果你达到了目标，再看投资组合回报，就变成了一种更偏智力的练习。

If you reach your goals, it becomes a more intellectual exercise thirty:fifty whenever you think about your portfolio returns.

大卫，你之前提到过，可能有人说，哦，我投资赚了10倍甚至100倍。

One of the things that you alluded to before, David, was that you might have someone who said, Oh, I made 10x or perhaps even 100x on investment.

那恭喜你，真心为你高兴。

Good for you, truly good for you.

但如果你是用净资产的0.1%去做的，那就无所谓了。

But if you did that with 0.1% of your net worth, it doesn't matter.

这也是为什么我看自己的投资记录时，不只是看这只股票赚了10美元、那只赚了1美元，我还会考虑那一年我总共投了多少钱，因为一美元就是一美元，不管在哪都一样。

That's also why whenever I'm, for example, looking at my track record, I'm not just saying $10 in one stock and $1 in another, I'm also thinking about how much have I invested that year because a dollar is a dollar is a dollar.

我喜欢说，我买日用品用的是真钱，不是想象中的钱，所以我的投资组合是按金额来算权重的。

I like to say that I buy my groceries with real money, not imaginary money, and so that's why I dollar weight my portfolio.

我不能去银行跟他们说，我自认为是百万富翁，所以你得给我一百万美元。

I can't go down to the bank and tell them, I identify as a millionaire, so you need to give me a million dollars.

我知道你好像什么都能自认为是。

I know you can identify apparently a lot of things.

这话听起来挺有政治意味的，但你不能自认为是百万富翁，然后就指望能拿到一百万美元。

It sounded very political loaded, but you can't identify as a millionaire and then assume that you'll be getting a million dollars.

事情不是这么运作的。

It doesn't work like that.

超市收的是真金白银，他们才不管我的相对回报率是多少呢。

Grocery store takes real dollars and they don't care what my relative returns, but they are.

所以当你用这些角度来看待钱的时候，你可能会对自己的投资组合有不同的想法。

So whenever you think about money in those terms, you might think differently about your portfolio.

比如说，突然之间，把所有钱都投在流动性差的私人资产上可能就没那么有吸引力了，不管你对这些资产怎么估值，不管是你自己估的还是第三方估的。

For example, all of a sudden it can become less attractive to have all your money tied into illiquid private assets, regardless of what kind of valuation you might put on them, whether it's by you or a third party.

所以你还得换个角度考虑永久性资本损失的风险。

So you also have to think differently about the risk you have of permanent loss of capital.

三十比五十，你还得考虑，不管你投多少钱，复利的时候也得能产生有意义的影响。

Thirty:fifty You also have to consider that whatever amount of money you're investing, it also needs to make a meaningful difference whenever you compound that money.

这又回到你之前说的，手里攥着大量现金不投的观点。

It goes back to your point about having a lot of money on the sidelines.

机会成本很高。

It's expensive in opportunity cost.

这也是为什么我完全理解，比如一个有一亿美元投资组合的人，可能对6%的回报就满意了，尤其是如果几乎没什么下行风险的话；而一个年轻的新兴投资者，可能只有十万美元在投资组合里。

That's also why it makes complete sense to me that someone who has, let's say, dollars 100,000,000 portfolio, they might be happy with a 6% return, especially if there's virtually no downsides, whereas an up and comer young investor, he might have $100,000 in his portfolio.

他会到处找机会，看能不能找到十倍股，而且他的投资会集中得多。

He's looking all over to see if he can find a 10 backer and he's way more concentrated.

不同的风格，不同的目标，不同的人。

It's different styles, different goals, different people.

这也是你意识到变得反脆弱有多重要的时候。

That's also whenever you realize how important it is to become antifragile.

第一步是量入为出，把剩下的钱投资到一个多元化的投资组合里。

The first step is to live within your means and invest the difference in hopefully a well diversified portfolio.

现在，回到刚才那个例子，大卫，继续聊聊买日用品的事。

Now, continue speaking about grocery shopping, going back to that example, David.

我们这边买东西用的是税后的钱。

We pay with after tax dollars locally here.

所以大卫，我想请你这个注册会计师来聊聊。

So David, I want to tee it up to you being a CPA.

你能跟我们讲讲税务方面的事吗？

Could you please talk to us about taxes?

我不知道有多少人会天天跟你说这个。

I don't know how many people would tell you that on a daily basis.

大卫，请跟我讲讲税务吧。

Please tell me about taxes, David.

大卫，天哪，今天是我最喜欢的一天。

David Oh my gosh, it's my favorite day.

我终于可以聊税务了。

I got to talk about taxes.

但在我们快速进入税务话题之前，我想先聊聊我们在核心圈子的智囊团社区通话中讨论过的一个话题。

But before we just quickly, before we jump into taxes, I wanna talk about something that we talked about one of our Mastermind Community calls within our inner circle.

你已经多次提到过关于幸福的话题。

You've talked about it a few times already about happiness.

我们社区里有一位几乎从一开始就在的成员，他关于财务独立和幸福的评论让我印象深刻。

I mean, one of the members who has been in our community from almost the start, he made a comment about financial independence and happiness that really stayed with me.

那天听到的时候，我真的很受触动。

It actually hit home for me that day when I heard it.

他说财务独立帮助他成为身边人更好的自己。

He talked about financial independence helping him be a better version of himself for the people around him.

我真的很认同这一点。

And I really connect it with that.

而且，你知道，有时候我们很难衡量那些我们没有的东西，以及那些你其实不必承受的压力。

And, you know, sometimes it's so hard to measure what we don't have and the stress that you actually don't have to carry.

想象一下，Stig，把你已经在做的所有事情，你手头所有的事情，你的家庭、工作、健康，还有你所有的人际关系都加起来。

Imagine taking everything that you already do, Stig, everything that you have on your plate, your family, your work, your health, all your relationships.

然后你还得再加上一件，某个很亲近的人在帮你做的事情，如果他不做，你就得自己做。

And then you've gotta add something that someone very close to you is helping you with that if they didn't do it, you would have to do it.

你必须扛起这个担子。

You have to carry the load.

你知道，总有一天会撑不住的。

You know, at some point something's gonna give.

而且一开始，这从来都不明显。

And at first, it's it's never obvious.

我的意思是，可能是你的创造力。

I mean, it could be your creativity.

也可能是你的健康。

It could be your health.

对我来说，可能就会是我的耐心。

For me, it would probably be my patience.

所以我觉得，财务独立其实可以是一种幸福的减法公式。

And that's why I think financial independence can be a subtraction formula for happiness.

它不会凭空创造幸福，但它能帮你卸掉生活中的某些压力。

I mean, it doesn't magically create happiness, but it can remove certain pressures from your life.

有时候，卸下压力本身就和增添新东西一样有力量。

And sometimes removing pressure, that's just as powerful as adding something new.

我自己也深有体会。

And I think about this with my own life.

说实话，我妻子在照顾我们两个可爱的女儿这件事上，承担的责任远远比我多得多。

I mean, my wife has certainly carried far, far more responsibility with the care of our two lovely daughters than than I did.

正因为我知道她会用心照顾，知道那些事情都有人打理，我才能专心去做别的事。

And because I knew her attention was there, because I knew certain things were being handled with care, I was able to focus on other things.

而且我毫无疑问地知道，如果我得承担她所承担的那些，我绝对不可能取得我们如今在事业上取得的那些成功，以及我能够做到的那些事情。

And and I know without a question that if I had to carry what she was carrying, there's no way that I would achieve some of the business success that we've achieved and that I was able to do.

而且，你知道，有时候成功恰恰是因为我们不必去做某些事，因为有别人在帮忙分担重担。

And, you know, sometimes success is created by what we don't have to do because someone else is helping carry the load.

我觉得财务独立也有点像这样。

And I think financial independence works a little bit like that.

我的意思是，如果你能给自己留出一些空间，它可以帮助你成为更好的自己。

I mean, if you can give yourself some room, it can help you become a better version of yourself.

而且，你知道，也许这就是财富创造带来一些幸福感的来源。

And, you know, maybe that's where some of the happiness comes from as it relates to wealth creation.

孩子们，这个话题我们可能能聊很多。

Boys, we could probably talk a lot about this.

这个对话可能还有太多可以展开的，但我们现在就到这里，我要换个话题了。

There's probably so much more to this conversation, but here we are, I'm gonna switch gears.

接下来会有一位注册会计师来谈谈税务问题。

You're gonna have a CPA talk about taxes.

听众朋友们，请别急着关掉。

Listeners, please, it's not time to tune out.

真的别走开。

Please don't tune out.

再听个十分钟左右就好。

Just lean in for maybe ten more minutes here.

学术研究已经证明，税收拖累会让投资回报损失1%到3%，在换手率高的投资组合里损失甚至更大。

It has been academically proven that tax drag can cost people between one to 3% of their investment returns and even more in higher turnover portfolios.

那为什么我们不该重视这件事呢？

So why wouldn't we wanna pay attention to it?

你们想想看。

You know, think about that.

想想过去十年你们投资组合的复利回报率是多少。

Just think about whatever rate has you have compounded in your investment portfolio over the last decade.

然后加上3%，再看看你们的投资余额会变成多少。

And then add 3% to it, and then see what your portfolio balance would be.

比如，做一下未来价值计算，拿你十年的内部收益率，再加上3%。

Like, do your future value calculations, take your your ten year IRR, and add 3% to it.

然后你会发现，税收的影响其实非常大。

And then I think that you're gonna find that tax matters a ton.

我听过很多关于税收的说法，但让我惊讶的是，在财富创造过程中，税收这个话题很少被提及。

And I've heard lots of sayings about tax, you know, and I'm always surprised just how little it gets talked about in wealth creation.

别让税收牵着投资的鼻子走，或者永远不要仅仅为了税收原因做投资决定。

Don't let the tax tail wag the investment dog or never make an investment decision solely for tax reasons.

这些说法我都同意。

And I agree with all of that.

你不应该把每个投资决定都变成税收决定。

You shouldn't turn every investment decision into a tax decision.

但另一方面也同样重要。

But the other side is also true.

忽视税收，并不是明智之举。

Ignoring tax, it's not wisdom.

这其实就是一种损耗。

It's actually leakage.

因为说到底，你并不是靠税前回报生活的。

And because at the end of the day, you don't live off your pretax returns.

就像你说的，你买菜用的是税后的钱。

And and like you said, you pay your groceries with after tax dollars.

所以，关注税务非常重要。

So being aware of tax is extremely important.

而且，你知道，我不打算详细讲那些关于税务拖累及其在应税账户中影响的研究报告。

And, you know, I'm not gonna go into all the research reports around tax drag and that it causes in taxable accounts.

但如果我们能一致认为税务拖累确实存在，并且值得关注，那么光是讨论它就已经有意义了。

But if we can just agree that it's there, tax drag is there, and it's worth being aware of, then even talking about it actually means something.

我知道有很多听众来自世界各地不同的国家，所以很难针对每个人讲具体的细节。

And I get there's so many listeners from many different countries around the world, so it'd be very hard to talk details specific to everyone.

但我想强调几点观察，来自你友好的社区注册会计师，我在加拿大从事公共执业已经二十年了。

But I do wanna highlight just a couple observations from, you know, your friendly neighborhood CPA who's been in public practice here for two decades in Canada.

税务成本很重要。

Tax cost matters.

对于在应税账户中积累财富的企业客户来说，这一点极其重要。

And for corporate clients that are compounding wealth in taxable accounts, it matters a tremendous amount.

而且很多时候，投资上的税，如果和经营业务在同一家公司里，就只是被混进总税额里的一个数字。

And oftentimes, tax on investments, it's just a number that gets wrapped up into total taxes when it's in the same company as the operating business.

比如说，你可以有一家小公司，既赚经营收入，又在同一家公司里赚投资收入。

I mean, for example, you could have a small business earning business income and in the same company earning investment income inside the same company.

然后你身边那位友好的会计师、注册会计师，年底给你一张税单。

And your friendly neighborhood accountant, CPA gives you your tax bill at the end of the year.

你真的会把税单里哪些部分对应经营收入、哪些对应投资收入分清楚吗？

And are you actually associating which parts of the tax relate to business income or investment income?

你有没有进一步去算过，投资回报本身被税务吃掉多少成本？

You know, have you gone so far as to determine the tax cost against your investment returns themselves?

Stig，99.9%的人很可能从来没这么做过。

Stig, 99.9% have likely never done this.

你知道吗？

You know?

你之前说过，人们就是接受它，付钱，然后这是最重要的一点。

You you said this earlier, like, people just accept it, they pay it, and here's the big one.

他们不想谈论这个，就直接过去了。

They don't wanna talk about it, and they just move on.

我很震惊

I'm shocked

人们不想跟你谈这个，不想

that people don't want to talk to you about don't

不想谈这个，Stig。

wanna talk about it, Stig.

他们拿到数字，然后付钱。

And they get the number, and they pay it.

我明年的分期付款是多少？

What are my installments for next year?

就是这样。

And and there it is.

但今天关于税务的对话里，有个关键点。

But here's the secret sauce in today's conversation on taxes.

只要你重视它，就能极大地改变你的复利引擎。

By paying attention to it, it can change your compounding engine tremendously.

这就是我们讨论的重点。

That's that's what we're talking about.

问题在于，我们怎么才能让复利引擎哪怕只提升几个百分点。

It's how do we change the compounding engine just by a couple percentage points.

我马上给你举一个特别夸张的例子，专门针对加拿大专业人士。

And I'm just gonna give you an absolutely crazy example here that's specific to Canadian professionals.

我会尽量说得快一点，但这足以说明关注这些事情有多重要。

I'll try to say it pretty quick, but it just highlights how important it is to pay attention to this stuff.

我明白。

And I get it.

交税是发达国家才有的烦恼。

Paying tax is a first world problem.

我是说，这是一种特权。

I mean, it's a privilege.

你在赚钱，但道理还是一样的。

You're making money, but the story, it still holds true.

如果你在新斯科舍省工作，比如你是个医生，在医院做专科，然后你在公司里存钱准备退休，可能你的投资策略非常保守，公司里有375万加元的固定收益资产，而且你还在工作，公司层面每年还有50万加元的常规业务收入。

If you're a professional working in Nova Scotia, say you're a doctor and you're specializing at the hospital and you're saving inside your company for retirement, maybe you have an ultra conservative investment approach and you have $3,750,000 in fixed income in your company and you're still working And you're still earning $500,000 a year at the corporate level on your regular business income.

你知道，鉴于你保守的投资策略，你的固定收益资产能赚4%的回报。

You know, given your conservative investment regime, your fixed income, you're gonna make 4% on it.

我只是说，这些都是假设，但我在设定这个场景。

I'm just this is all hypothetical, but I'm just setting up the scenario.

你会产生整整15万加元的利息收入。

You're gonna produce an even $150,000 of interest income.

那么，在新斯科舍省，你的投资收入会有一个抵扣，影响你的企业税率。

Well, here in Nova Scotia, there is a grind on your investment income that goes against your business tax rate.

最疯狂的是这个。

And here's the crazy thing.

你将要交的税，考虑到小企业扣除额的损失，会超过你赚到的15万利息收入。

The taxes that you are going to pay are gonna be more than the $150,000 of interest income that you earned when you take into consideration the loss of the small business deduction.

所以实际上，在这个情况下，税款是17万。

So in fact, the taxes are a $170,000 in this scenario.

所以，虽然你的券商报表显示你的固定收益有一个非常保守的4%资金加权回报率，但你的税后资金加权回报率是负的，差不多负0.5%。

So while your broker statement shows an ultra conservative 4% money weighted rate of return on your fixed income, your after tax money weighted rate of return is a negative almost 0.5%.

就是0.5%。

So half of one percent.

这可不是表现不佳。

That is not underperformance.

这是我所说的反向复利。

That is what I like to call compounding in reverse.

而且，你知道吗，你当初还不如不投资呢。

And, you know, you would have been better off not investing at all.

所以我整个故事的重点就是，你最终要面对的是税后的结果。

And so the point of my entire story is that you live with after tax outcomes.

而且你必须考虑你全部净资产的情况，而不仅仅是券商报表上显示的那些数字。

And you have to be thinking about the totality of your net worth, not just what gets reported on a broker statement, for example.

我的意思是，太容易把它不当回事了，好像无所谓一样。

I mean, it's just too easy to brush it off like it doesn't matter.

而且，你知道，确实有人以很高的回报率在复利增长，而税收只是那些策略的副产品。

And, you know, listen, there are people who are compounding at significant rates of return and taxes are just a byproduct of those strategies.

我的意思是，对于做期权交易、能获得30%到40%回报率的人来说，这几乎就像销售成本一样。

I mean, it's almost like a cost of goods sold for the people that are into options trading and can generate a 3040% rate of return.

我总是对那些能持续以高回报率复利增长、甚至都不用担心税收的人表示敬佩。

I mean, I always tip my hat off to the people who are consistently compounding at rates that are high enough that they don't even have to worry about taxes.

但现实是，我们很多人并不是在模仿沃伦·巴菲特，在应税账户里以20%的年复合增长率持续二三十年甚至四十年。

But the reality is that many of us are not emulating Warren Buffett and compounding at 20% CAGR in taxable accounts for two and three and four decades.

所以，我们确实需要关注这个问题。

Therefore, we need to pay attention to it.

所以，哪怕只是多赚那么几个百分点的收益，也能对你的净资产产生显著影响。

So just to pick up those couple extra percentage points, that has the ability to move the needle on your net worth.

而且，我们都知道，要区分世界顶级职业运动员，靠的是什么。

And, you know, we all know what it takes to separate the best professional athletes in the world.

你知道，往往就是那些微小的收益和边际表现的提升，决定了谁能进入美巡赛，谁永远打不上。

You know, it's often these just these fringe gains and the marginal performance improvements that separate someone who makes the PGA tour from someone who never plays on it.

我在这个播客开头就问过一个问题：为什么一个收益平平的人，还能显著地、有意义地增长自己的净资产？

And I started this podcast by asking the question, why can someone with an average return still significantly grow their net worth in meaningful ways?

税务意识就是原因之一。

Tax awareness is one of these reasons.

一个平均收益但税负拖累不到1%的投资，可能比一个收益更高但税负拖累超过超额收益的投资更好。

An average return with less than 1% tax drag can be better than a higher return where the tax drag is greater than the outperformance itself.

所以，整体财富表现，关键在于所有前端的决策，比如在资金可用时就进行投资。

And so total wealth performance, it's about all of the front end decisions by investing capital as it becomes available.

这就是打造一个为你服务的复利引擎。

It's configuring your compounding engine that works for you.

这真的很重要。

That's really important.

而且，通过使用节税策略，确保资本变成可支配的财富。

And ensuring that the capital becomes spendable wealth by using tax efficient strategies.

你知道，当我想到投资中必须做的所有决定时，比如找到赢家、减少行为错误、把你的策略扩展到所有投资账户。

And, you know, when I think of all the decisions that you have to make in investing, finding winners, minimizing behavioral mistakes, scaling your strategy across all your investment accounts.

税收是最容易产生影响的途径之一，因为至少你知道或者可以了解规则，并利用这些策略来应对它们，理解它们，并把它们变成你的优势。

Taxes are one of the easiest ways to make a difference because at least you know or you could become aware of the rules and use the strategies to compete with them and and to understand them and and put them to your advantage.

想想财富创造中有多少未知和不可知的因素。

There are like, just think of all of the unknowns and the unknowable in wealth creation.

税收不必属于这个范畴。

Taxes doesn't have to be in this realm.

当1月1日新年开始时，我们通常都知道税收规则。

We generally know the tax rules when January 1 rolls around when we start the year.

这就是我一直想强调的重点。

And that's really the point I wanna keep coming back to.

这就好比你的整体财富表现。

It's just like your total wealth performance.

关键不在于投资组合的回报率，而在于储蓄、行为、税务、结构和生活方式等因素共同作用下的复利效应。

It's not just about what your portfolio return, it's what compounds after savings, behavior, taxes, structure, life.

我的意思是，真正的目标就是让简单的事情持续复利足够长的时间，从而在你的生活中产生实质性的影响。

I mean, the real goal is just to let simple things compound long enough so that they can become meaningful in your life.

Stig，是的。

Stig Yeah.

大卫，你说得太好了。

Think that's so well said, David.

这确实呼应了你提到的观点，也就是为什么你可能更关注净资产的复利增长，而不是像投资组合回报率这样的指标。

It really goes to your point about why you might be looking more at the compounding of your net worth than something like portfolio returns.

当然，投资组合回报率的计算方式确实有些不同。

Of course, portfolio returns is a little bit different.

另外我也得说明一下，对所有人来说，这都是公开信息，大家都能查到。但我选择不公布我的净资产，并不是因为它是秘密，只是因为它属于个人隐私。

I also should say for the record, everyone, it's public information, everyone can look that up for me, but I choose not to publish my net worth, not because it's a secret, it's just private.

我觉得你也有同样的感觉。

I think you sort of feel the same way.

尤其是在我们这个圈子里，我们确实会聊净资产，但跟一小群朋友聊这个，和聊投资回报率是不一样的，因为某种程度上这更像是一个活生生的领域，而且也许你也没怎么考虑过税务问题，我也不确定。

And especially in our community, we actually do talk about net worth, but it's different to do that with a small group of friends than it is to talk about portfolio returns because it's sort of like a bit more of a living playing field in a way and also because perhaps you to don't think about taxes, I don't know.

但有时候你会觉得，聊净资产比聊投资回报率更暴露自己，尽管对很多人来说，聊投资回报率本身就已经够难的了。

But you sometimes feel you're exposing yourself a lot more whenever you're talking about net worth than perhaps portfolio returns, even though that could be difficult enough for a lot of people.

不过，如果你在我们聊完税务之后还在听——我在这儿鼓掌呢。

But hey, if you're still listening now after we talked about taxes- I'm clapping here.

如果你还在听，那真是太棒了。

If you're still listening, that's fantastic.

斯提格，真是讽刺，是吧，大卫。

Stig Ironic, yeah, David.

但可能有个选择性偏差，我们就是爱聊税务。

But there's probably a selection bias that we love talking about taxes.

可惜大多数人不是这样，但他们可能至少应该稍微考虑一下税务问题。

Most people unfortunately don't, but they probably should be thinking at least a bit about taxes.

如果按小时算的话，花时间处理税务并付诸行动，回报率可能比做其他任何事情都高。

The hourly rate, if I can put it in those terms, for anyone thinking about their taxes and acting on it is probably better than anything else they could be spending their time on.

而且不管怎样，希望到了节目这个阶段大家能明白，这个游戏——如果可以这么叫的话——真正关乎的是整体财富的创造，以及它如何与你的财务目标挂钩，因为我们用税后收入来消费，而税是一项实实在在的开支。

And in any case, hopefully get it at this stage here in the episode that the game, if you could call it the game, is really about total wealth creation and how that leads into your financial goals because we spend with our tax money and tax is a real expense.

大卫，你说得对，我们了解这个游戏的规则。

To your point, David, we know the rules of the game.

我们知道每年1月1日一到，事情就开始了。

We know that whenever January 1 runs around.

但是斯蒂格，如果你想继续和我们聊，大卫和我有一个网站叫compoundingsimplicity.com，我们会在节目说明里放上链接。

But Stig if you want to continue the conversation with us, David and I have a website called compoundingsimplicity.com and we'll make sure to link to that in the show notes.

你可以在那里找到这期节目，以及我们未来所有的播客对话，还有之前已经录过的那些。

You can find this and all the other podcast conversations we're going to have, well, in the future, but also the one we already had.

另外，我们还有一个免费教育视频库，大家可以看看关于投资以及如何实现整体财富创造的内容。

Then we have a library of free educational videos that people can also check out about investing and how to execute on total wealth creation.

大卫，在结束这期节目之前，我们还有什么需要聊的吗？

David, anything else that we need to talk about here before we end the episode?