Stepping Down From Twenty One, The Fed Coin Flip & The AI Credit Bubble

所以通常来说，我不愿意纠结于那些我控制不了的事情。

So I don't want you know, typically in my life, I don't wanna get caught up on things I can't control.

但这次不一样，我完全能掌控局面。

But in this instance, I absolutely could control it.

我是首席执行官。

I was the CEO.

有些事情我本来可以做得不一样。

There's things I would have done differently.

是我设定了目标，而我们没达成，就这么简单。

I created expectations, and we didn't hit them, period.

直截了当，就是这样。

Point blank, period.

事情就在这里。

That's it.

人们信任我。

People trusted me.

在很多方面，我觉得自己辜负了他们的信任。

And in many respects, I feel like I let them down.

我有这样的感受，也愿意为此承担责任。

And I feel that, and I own that.

话虽如此，公司还得继续运营下去。

Now with that being said, the company still goes on.

有意思的是，公司并没有因此解散，我们之前说有的比特币，其实并没有。

You know, what's interesting is, like, this isn't it's not like the company dissolves of itself and the Bitcoin we said we had, we didn't have.

我的意思是，我们有储备金的证明。

I mean, we have proof of reserves.

全球第二大金库。

Second largest treasury in the world.

所以我也得小心点，毕竟我的篇章已经结束了，我多希望自己在任期内能达成想要达成的目标。

So I also have to be careful in that my chapter of the story is over, and I wish I was able to achieve what I wanted to achieve while I was there.

但是，我的意思是，如果董事会继续打造一家拥有强劲现金流、令人惊叹的产品线，并且已经能够进入公开市场、拥有庞大金库的比特币巨头公司，那这家公司的最佳时光肯定还在后头。

But, I mean, if the board goes on to build a massive Bitcoin company with cash flows and unbelievable product lines and they already have public markets access and a huge treasury, I mean, the best days of the company are surely in front of it.

所以你得明白，是这样的。

So you have to yeah.

我也得把这一点说清楚。

I have to be clear about that as well.

所以，我和二十一公司的这段经历结束了，但二十一公司的故事还没完。

So it's that my my story with twenty one is over, but the twenty one story isn't over.

总之，我相信这两点都是真的。

So anyway, these two things I believe to be true.

我们在公司确实打造了实实在在的东西，但我自己并没有做到。

We built something real at the company, and we didn't I didn't.

我没能实现当初设定的全部愿景。

I didn't complete the full vision that I set out to do.

所以，我认为这两个事实并不互相矛盾。

So I don't think either of those truths cancel out the other.

我们确实建成了全球第二大储备金。

We did build the second largest treasury.

我的意思是，有很多人想把公司上市，也想做我们做过的事，但他们都没成功。

I mean, there are many people that tried to take a company public, tried to do what we did, and they couldn't do it.

而我们做到了，而且过程特别艰难。

And we did it, and it was hard.

如果当初我刚开始做Twenty One的时候，有人告诉我，最后会是这么个结局，还告诉我我到底完成了什么、没完成什么，我肯定说：不可能。

But, I mean, I would say, on net, if you were to tell me when I started twenty one that this is how my time there would end, and you would have told me what I did accomplish and what I didn't, I would have said, no way.

我绝不会接受这样的结果。

I I wouldn't take that.

所以，这就是我必须坦然面对的现实。

So that's the unfortunate reality that I own.

那这对Strike和我来说意味着什么？

Now what does this mean for Strike and myself?

我得说得明明白白，Strike从一开始就是独立的，现在依然独立。

Just to be abundantly clear, Strike has always been independent, remains independent.

我们没打算卖给任何人。

We're not selling anybody.

如果还不清楚的话，Strike是我个人的。

In case that's not clear, Strike is mine.

这家公司归我所有。

I own that business.

我亲自在运营这家公司。

I run that business.

我至今仍在继续运营它。

I continue to run that business.

我发了那封给股东和Strike投资人的信，因为Strike和Twenty One之间没有任何直接关联，除了我本人。

I I tweeted out the letter I sent to shareholders or to Strike investors because, you know, Strike has no direct relationship to Twenty One outside of me.

Strike现在手头上持有的比特币价值超过一亿美元。

Strike I mean, we're sitting on over a $100,000,000 worth of Bitcoin.

这是一家五年历史的初创公司，团队规模大概有一百人左右。

It's a it's a five year old startup, mind you, of of a of a team that, you know, I think is around a 100 people at this point.

目前我们的估值距离比特币的历史高点已经跌了一半。

So and we're 50% off the Bitcoin highs.

我记得有一阵子，我们的资产负债表上曾有两亿五千万美元。

I think at one point, we had a $250,000,000 on our balance sheet.

Strike手握巨额资金，尽管这个熊市让同行们惨遭重创，我们却依然盈利，年年增长。

So, I mean, Strike is sitting on a war chest of capital Despite this bear market that's been ruthless to other peers in the space, Strike remains profitable, growing year over year.

我对团队、文化、产品和专注度感到无比自豪。

I mean, unbelievably proud of the team, of the culture, of the products, of the focus.

我们干得相当出色。

We are kicking ass.

就像我说的，Strike会登上所有杂志的封面吗？

And like I said, like, listen, is Strike gonna be on the cover of every magazine?

会有人拍纪录片讲我们的故事吗？

And is Strike gonna be documentaries made about it?

我不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得我们有可能成为有史以来最酷的公司之一。

I think that we could be one of the coolest companies ever.

但我想说的是，我不需要那些。

But I guess my point is I don't need that.

我真的不需要那些。

I don't need that.

我喜欢为比特币用户打造工具。

I love building tools for Bitcoiners.

稍后我会详细聊，我非常热衷于推广比特币。

And as I'll get into a second, I love orange pilling.

Strike 是一家非常了不起的公司。

Strike is an unbelievable business.

我坚信产品、现金流和利润。

I believe in products, cash flow, profits.

是的。

Yeah.

我们的比特币储备并不是四万三千枚。

Our Bitcoin treasury is not 43,000 Bitcoin.

我对这个没问题。

I'm okay with that.

我对这个没问题。

I'm okay with that.

你懂我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

比特币储备是我们自己的，靠现金流积累起来的。

The Bitcoin treasury is ours, and we produce it with cash flow.

我们为此感到自豪。

And we're proud of that.

所以，没错，我现在是把全部心血都倾注在Strike上——当然，以前我也一样投入。

So, yeah, that strike is I'm pouring my blood, sweat, and tears, not that I wasn't before, into strike.

想想Strike还这么年轻，未来还有很长的路要走，我们的团队也很年轻，我们是按几十年来规划的。我相信Strike完全有可能成长为一家真正有影响力的比特币金融机构，顺便也推动全球范围内的采用。

I mean, considering how young strike is in the future that it has and the leadership team and how young we are, I mean, I think Stripe can grow over the decades, we think in decades, into, you know, a Bitcoin financial institution that's that's gone a long way into pushing adoption around the world too, for what it's worth.

能说自己在全球范围内为这种新资产类别分发产品的公司，其实没几家，但我们做到了。

I mean, there's not many companies that can say they distribute products globally on this new asset class, and we do.

还有最后一件事，各位。

And then one more thing, guys.

所以我回顾了一下这些内容，再次建议大家花点时间，如果感兴趣的话，可以读一下我发布的那篇文章。

So as I reflected on all of this stuff, and again, I encourage you to take the time and if you're interested, read the essay I put out.

我录制了音频版和视频版，方便那些喜欢一边散步一边听书或播客的朋友。

I I recorded an audio version and a video version for those of you that like walking around and listening to books or podcasts.

我已经把它上传到了这个YouTube频道和播客订阅源。

I uploaded it to this YouTube channel and to the podcast feed.

不过，我会花很多时间去深入反思熊市带来的教训，明白那些磨难并不是礼物，艰难的时刻也不一定是未来让你感激的东西。

But I do a lot of deep reflection on bear markets and tough lessons and, you know, what punishments are not gifts, what hard times are not things that you're ultimately grateful for in your future.

所以，在这些反思中，会有很多更深层次的哲学思考。

And so there's a lot more deeper philosophical waxing in those.

但还有一件事我还没提到，但我确实想谈谈，那就是比特币的普及。

But one thing that I didn't mention yet that I do want to is this idea of Bitcoin adoption.

因为你知道，我花了很多时间思考，我该怎么才能帮上最大的忙。

Because, you know, I spent a lot of time thinking about, you know, how can I help the most?

我在哪里能发挥最大的价值？

Where can I be the most valuable?

确实，很多人给我发私信、写邮件，我都一一读了。

And I did, you know, a lot of you guys DM me and write me emails and stuff, and I read every single one.

我注意到一个挺常见的说法，说比特币在全球的普及率才1%到2%、3%左右。

And one of the things that I found interesting is there's this, you know, cliche that you see people say of like, oh, well, Bitcoin adoption, you know, is only like one to two to 3% of the world globally.

我们还处于非常早期的阶段。

We're so early.

我认真想了想，算了算这笔账。

And I sat with that, and I tried to do the math.

我觉得这说法根本站不住脚。

And I think that's bullshit.

比特币在全球的用户绝对不可能只占1%。

There's no way Bitcoin adoption is 1% of planet Earth.

如果你真去算一算，结论其实再清楚不过了。

And if I mean, if you do the math, I think it's it's nondebatable.

地球上大概有八十亿人。

There's 8,000,000,000 people on the planet.

对吧？

Right?

差不多吧。

Roughly.

我不太确定。

I don't know.

就按八十亿算吧。

Call it 8,000,000,000.

1%就是八千万人。

1% of that's 80,000,000.

你觉得有八千万人真正懂比特币吗？

You think 80,000,000 people understand Bitcoin?

因为对我来说，所谓的采用，可能只是他们间接接触过而已。

Because to me, like, adoption of, like, oh, well, they have some proxy exposure.

你知道吧，他们有个401(k)账户，里面投了一点比特币相关的资产。

You know, they have a four zero one k that has exposure to the no.

这算不上真正的采用。

That's not adoption.

至少我不觉得这是。

At least not to me.

你明白我的意思吧？

You know what I mean?

我就说吧，我也说不准。

Like, I like, I don't know.

如果你爸、你妈、你最好的朋友，或者你老婆说，是的。

If your dad or your mom or your best friend or your wife was like, yeah.

我通过这个、这个、这个，间接接触了比特币，大概我的401(k)里有百分之零点七是通过金融产品间接持有的。

I I have proxied exposure through this, this, this, this, and I guess, like, point 7% of my four zero one k is, like, technically exposed through a securities wrapper.

你会觉得，好吧，这算数吗？

Would you say, like, okay.

不错。

Cool.

你明白了。

You get it.

你才是真懂了。

You are adopted.

操。

Fuck.

不。

No.

我不会这么干。

I wouldn't.

这根本不是个问题。

Like, this ain't a question.

有些人居然真这么想，这简直荒谬。

It's not even like, the fact that some people believe that to me is asinine.

这个我真不知道。

I I don't know.

这得看你想让比特币扮演什么角色，反正定义比特币不是我的事。

It depends on what you want Bitcoin to be, and it's Bitcoin's not for me to define.

它不属于我。

It's not mine.

但这跟普及推广可不是一回事。

But that's not adoption.

所以我坐在那儿想了想，心想，行吧。

And so I sat and I thought, I said, okay.

嗯，首先，这说明我们真的还处在非常早期的阶段。

Well, you know, first of all, it goes to show how early we really are.

因为如果我们连1%的比特币采用率都没达到，至少按照我对比特币的理解，你至少对它有个大概的了解。

Because if we're not at 1% Bitcoin adoption, at least how I think of Bitcoin, we're like, you at least remotely understand it.

不管你是想拥有ETF、证券还是现货，随便哪种都行。

And whether you wanna know own an ETF or a security or spot, whatever.

但至少你理解它，明白它是怎么运作的，也知道它为什么重要。

But at least you like understand it, you get how it works, you get why it's important.

有八千万人已经达到这个水平了。

Like, 80,000,000 people are at that level.

朋友们，我们离这个数字还差得远呢。

Guys, we aren't even close to that number.

事实上，我觉得连八百万人对比特币都只有个模糊的概念。

In fact, I don't think 8,000,000 people have, a vague understanding of Bitcoin.

我们可能连八十万人都不到。

We might not even be at 800,000.

我甚至不确定我们有没有达到比特币采用率的万分之一。

I don't even know if we've achieved a basis point of Bitcoin adoption.

至少像现在听我说话的这些人和我所理解的这种程度，都远远没达到。

At least a level of adoption that the folks listening to me right now and I have, like not even close.

于是我对自己说，你知道吗？

And so I thought to myself, I said, you know what?

全世界最终总会有一部分人理解比特币，问题是，现在该从哪儿开始？

Of all the like, how is the world because inevitably, the world will get to 1%.

八千万人、八百万人、八亿人，总有一天，八十亿人会明白比特币是什么。

80,000,000 people, 8,000,000 people, and then 800,000,000 people, and then 8,000,000,000 people will understand Bitcoin at some point.

这需要时间，而且过程肯定不容易。

And it's gonna take time, and it's gonna be hard.

但我一直在想，到底谁来干这件事呢？

But I thought to myself, and I said, you know, who's going to do that work?

说实话，我自己也不知道。

It's I I don't know.

这确实是个值得思考的问题。

To me, it's a good question.

是Coinbase来推动吗？

Like, is Coinbase gonna do it?

是美国政府来推动吗？

Is the US government gonna do it?

摩根大通会做吗？

Is Chase Bank gonna do it?

我也不确定。

And I don't know.

我当时在想，嗯，好吧。

I you know, because I was thinking to myself, like, okay.

显然，Strike 还有太多事情要做。

Obviously, you know, Strike, we have so much to do.

但我心里其实觉得，没错，就是这样。

But I was like, yeah, man.

我依然对这件事充满热情和信念。

You know, I still have so much ambition and and conviction in in this thing.

虽然我觉得自己并不适合当 2021 年的 CEO，但我依然非常想为 Orange Pillen 做点贡献。

And just because, you know, I didn't believe I was the right CEO for '21, I still like really, really want to contribute to Orange Pillen.

所以我接下来要专注的就是这件事。

So the other thing I'm gonna be doing is focusing on that.

所以像这个YouTube频道，我打算邀请更多嘉宾。

So this YouTube channel, for example, we're I'm gonna start bringing on a lot more guests.

我会更多地参加播客节目。

I'm hitting the podcast waves more.

既然我不再是上市公司的CEO，我现在想说什么就说什么。

I got I'm doing what now that I'm not a public company CEO, I could say what I want.

我想什么时候说就什么时候说。

I could talk when I want.

我是说，这太棒了。

I mean, it's amazing.

所以从这个角度来说。

And so in that respect.

所以我明天要去录一期播客，周三还有一期。

So I go on a podcast tomorrow, another one on Wednesday.

我会在这里制作更多内容。

I'm gonna produce more content on here.

会多做一些教育类的内容。

A lot more educational content.

比如，钱到底是什么？

Like, what is money?

比特币是怎么运作的？

How does Bitcoin work?

说实话，我也不知道谁会来做这些内容。

I mean, I don't know who's going to produce this stuff.

我好好想了想，干脆我自己来吧。

And I I kinda sat with myself and I thought, well, why not me?

我也说不准。

And I don't know.

也许大家会喜欢。

Maybe people will love it.

也许不会。

Maybe people won't.

但我觉得这是值得去做的事。

But I think it's I think it's work worth doing.

再说，这工作可不算最吸引人的那种。

And again, this isn't like the sexiest work.

你知道的，我觉得靠做这个，我一周可攒不下两万枚比特币。

Like, you know, I I don't think I'm gonna be stacking 20,000 Bitcoin a week doing this work.

不过我不在乎。

But I don't care.

我不在乎。

I don't care.

我是真的不在乎。

I really don't.

你知道的，比特币圈子里很多都是关于放下自我执念的事。

I I you know, so much of Bitcoin is that ego death thing.

那些东西对我来说根本无所谓。

Don't that that stuff don't matter to me.

所以你们可以期待我继续这样下去。

So you guys can expect that from me.

我会在节目后面再听听大家的意见。

I'll I'll get your feedback a bit later into the show.

不过，这部分就说到这里了。

But anyhoo, that's the section.

还没听说这个消息的人，现在知道了。

So for those that hadn't heard the news, now you know.

很遗憾，我们当初想做的事，和公司现在的方向已经不一样了。

Unfortunate, obviously, what we set out to start and where the company's going is no longer the same.

所以我得退出了。

So I need to step down.

我已经这么做了。

And I did.

这是个艰难的决定，但没错，这是该做的。

It's the right thing, hard thing, but the right thing.

这并不改变一个事实：我为公司所做的一切，最终没能达到我当初设定的愿景和期望。

That doesn't take away from the fact that the outcome of my endeavors with the company didn't match the vision and the expectations I set.

这一点我完全承担责任，对此我深表歉意。

And I own that a 100%, and I apologize for that.

当然，这不是我心目中关于‘21年’该有的故事结局，但这是正确的决定。

Certainly not the story and the ending to this movie that I wanted in regards to '21, but it's the right thing to do.

对公司、股东、对我自己、对Strike、对比特币，这都是最好的选择。

It's best for the company, its shareholders, for me, for Strike, for Bitcoin.

那么，这对我们未来意味着什么？

And so then what does it mean for the future?

我的想法很简单：咱们就专心为比特币用户开发工具，打造现金流。

Well, I mean, let's fucking build tools for Bitcoiners, build cash flow.

我想打造一家我心目中理想的比特币公司——它该有的样子、该有的行为、该专注的方向，这就是Strike之于我的意义。

I wanna build the company that you know, I have a very particular vision for what a Bitcoin company should look like, how it should behave, what it should be working on, And that strike for me.

现在我也有了更多时间和精力，去真正推动比特币普及，打造一个属于我的声音、平台和内容，做我认为真正重要的事。

And I also now have a lot more time and focus to orange pill and, like, really build a voice and a platform and content for Bitcoin adoption in the way that I think it matters.

所以你看，比特币就是这样一种开放的东西。

So, you know, Bitcoin is this Bitcoin is this open open thing.

它就像一项公共设施。

It's like a public utility.

就像街角那个公园一样。

It's like a it's like a park down the street.

你懂的。

You know?

如果我去公园坐着看书，这时候有个爸爸和儿子过来玩接球，谁对谁错？

If I were to walk to the park to sit and read a book and, you know, a dad and his son come play catch, who's right?

公园是该给玩接球的，还是该给看书的？

Is the park for catch or is the park for reading?

其实谁都没错。

Well, no one's right.

它就是一项公共设施。

It's it's a public utility.

你想怎么用就怎么用。

It's for whatever the fuck you want.

有些人会带狗去公园散步。

Some people are gonna use the park to walk their dogs.

有些人会去公园野餐。

Some people are gonna use the park for a picnic.

有些人会坐在那儿看书。

Some are gonna read a book.

有些人会玩接球游戏。

Some are gonna play catch.

每个人都是错的，但每个人也都是对的。

Everyone's wrong, and everyone's right.

所以，别人对加密货币的构想并不算错。

So it doesn't invalidate everyone else's vision for a Bitcoin company.

别人对比特币的理解，也不该被否定。

It doesn't invalidate everyone else's perception of what Bitcoin is.

但Strike是什么，以及我将成为什么，这完全由我决定，我会按自己的方式来做。

But what Strike is and what I am will be mine, and I'm gonna do it my way.

我对这一点感到非常兴奋。

And I'm very excited about that.

尽管这段经历很痛苦，就像我在文章里写的，哪一种教训不是礼物呢？

And as painful as some of this has been, like I read in my essay, what punishments are not gifts?

我很感激自己能以这么低的代价学到这些教训，因为我正在深刻理解什么是领导者，什么是真正优秀的人，什么是朋友、同事，什么是比特币信徒。

I'm very grateful for acquiring lessons as cheap as I am because I'm learning a lot about what it means to be a leader, what it means to be great man, a friend, a colleague, a Bitcoiner.

听好了，Twenty One依然是个拥有大量比特币、并已为成功做好准备的公司。

And listen, Twenty One is still a business that has a ton of Bitcoin and is set up to be successful.

Strike是一家了不起的公司，不管遇到什么阻碍，它似乎总是越挫越强，越来越赚钱，规模越来越大。

Strike is an unbelievable company that despite anything thrown in its way, it seems to just get stronger, get more profitable, grow bigger.

机会似乎无处不在。

Opportunities seem to be everywhere.

我的意思是，尽管经历了这么多挫折和痛苦，我们依然站在这里。

I mean, for all of the humbling and all of the pain, we're still here.

所以我很感激自己能在这么艰难的情况下依然坚持学习，并且继续前行。

And so I'm very grateful for an ability to learn as hard as it's been and march on.

继续前行。

March on.

我觉得成功有百分之九十九靠的就是坚持到场。

I think 99% of success is just showing up.

确实如此。

I do.

你懂的？

You know?

在细节层面，你得做决定，比如，呃，你知道的，我们是做这个产品还是那个产品？

At the margins, you'll have to make decisions of like, oh, you know, do we build this product or that product?

还是说定价定成这样还是那样？

Or do you price it this way or that way?

我并不是想否定这些工作的价值。

And I'm not trying to invalidate that work.

但我跟你们说，大部分时候，市场会试图让你疲惫不堪，或者把你吓跑。

But I'm telling you guys, most of the work like I say, markets try and wear you out or scare you out.

对吧？

Right?

就是别放弃。

It's just don't quit.

只要坚持到场就行。

Just show up.

只管埋头干活。

Just do the work.

把教训当作成长的养分，坦然接受。

Take the lessons to the chin.

保持谦逊。

Humble yourself.

勇于承担责任。

Own it.

做个有担当的男人。

Be a man.

保持透明，别藏着掖着。

Be transparent.

要诚实。

Be honest.

并且要持之以恒地投入。

And show up.

所以我接下来会这么做。

So that's what I'll be doing.

现在对那些对这一切完全不在乎的听众，我先道个歉。

Now for the listeners to the show that don't give a shit about any of that, I apologize.

咱们来聊聊市场动态吧。

Let's do market updates.

这周行情很重要，因为美联储有机会调整利率。

So we have a big week because the Fed has an opportunity to change interest rates.

我想在这里说点别的。

And I I just wanna say something here.

我之前说过，沃什根本不可能加息。

You know, I've said there's no way Warsh hikes rates.

那简直不可能。

That'd be impossible.

他要是真这么干，那简直就是糊涂蛋。

He'd have to be an idiot.

但回头想想，我得小心点，别把话说得太绝对，万一他真加息了，大家肯定都会说：天啊。

And feedback from my own self, I gotta be a little careful with such declarative statements like that because inevitably when he does raise rates, then everyone's gonna be like, wow.

我可是经常听你的节目。

I listen to your show.

你真是个糊涂蛋。

You're an you're an idiot.

所以我赶紧把话说得委婉点。

So let me just rephrase things quickly.

我真的觉得他不该这么做。

I really don't think he should.

我觉得这主意太糟糕了。

I think it's a very bad idea.

从数学上讲，这根本行不通，但这并不意味着他不会做。

Mathematically, it cannot work, but that doesn't mean that he won't.

我得说实话，毕竟我们面对的是政治世界。

I have to be honest about that because, I mean, we're dealing in a world of politics.

这整个就是庞氏骗局。

And, I mean, this is all Ponzinomics.

这完全是晕头转向的。

It's a woozy.

这完全是胡扯。

It's a wazzy.

这简直就是魔法粉尘。

It's fairy dust.

对吧？

Right?

《华尔街之狼》。

Wolf of Wall Street.

所以我也说不准，毕竟涉及政治、战情室的动态，还有伊朗和中国AI公司那边的情况。

And so I don't know, you know, the the politics and being in the war room and what's going on with Iran and AI companies in China.

所以我没法做出这么绝对的判断。

And so I can't make such declarative statements.

这一点我得说清楚。

So I just gotta be clear on that.

现在我再跟你们详细讲讲，为什么从长远来看这根本行不通，但这并不意味着他不会做。

Now I I will walk you guys through once again why it just isn't an option for the long term, but it doesn't mean that he won't.

所以市场目前这一周的预期，其实是五五开。

And so the market is effectively pricing this week as a toss-up.

今天特朗普对媒体可是说得挺直白的。

So Trump today was very vocal with the media.

我这儿有两张截图。

So I got two screenshots here.

特朗普这周问了美联储。

Trump asked the Fed this week.

成本正在迅速下降。

Costs are going down rapidly.

接着特朗普又说，利率应该下调。

And then Trump again, rates should be lowered.

所以特朗普坚持自己的立场。

So Trump is sticking to his guns.

他还觉得我这儿漏掉了一条。

He thinks he also had one I didn't put in here.

他认为美国的利率应该是全球最低的。

He thinks The US should have the lowest interest rates in the world.

所以特朗普希望大幅降息。

So Trump wants aggressive rate cutting.

他一直都是这么想的。

He always has.

看起来他确实坚持这个立场，这也挺正常的，但显然这会带来通胀压力。

Seemingly, he sticks by that, which is also fine, but obviously is inflationary.

然后费吉这条推文，正好直观地印证了我刚才说的情况，就是现在局势有点说不准。

And then this tweet from Feiju is really the visualization of what I was just describing is that it's kind of a toss-up.

市场的意思是，沃什真的可能会加息。

The market is saying, Warsh really might raise rates.

说真的，他可能真会这么做。

Like, he really might do it.

看他那番话，再加上市场已经把这种可能性算进去了，这绝非零概率。所以我才得赶紧上来提一嘴，我觉得这主意糟透了。

The way that he's talking and the way the market is pricing it in, it's a nonzero chance, which is why I had to get on here and say, I think it'd be a bad idea.

他可能会把AI信贷泡沫给戳破。

He might pop the AI credit bubble.

他可能会给股市和债市造成大量不可逆的损害，到时候咱们就得面对那种大规模印钞式救市的事件了。

He might cause a lot of irreversible harm to equities and to the bond market, and that's when we're gonna get, like, a big print bailout type of event.

但他可能会这么做，因为我是说，政客嘛，我也不清楚。

But he might do it because I don't again, politicians, I don't know.

我是说，这大概是人类历史上最非理性、最荒谬的一章了。

I mean, it's the most irrational, ridiculous chapter in human history, arguably.

我没法预测这种事。

I I can't predict these things.

所以费吉这条推文的意思是，欢迎来到新时代。

And so this Feiju tweet reads, welcome to the new age.

利率在会议前充满不确定性，这已经成了新常态。

Rates being a toss-up going into meetings is the new normal.

要做好市场波动的心理准备。

Expect volatility.

所以我的市场观点很简单，就是预期会有波动。

So that's really my market update is to expect volatility.

再看看《华尔街日报》这篇报道，讲赤字高企如何威胁债券市场。

So this from the Wall Street Journal, how sky high deficits threaten the bond market.

而且，我是说，这个话题我们已经讨论过无数次了。

And, I mean, we've gone over this a million times.

Luke Gromen 讲过无数次，每个宏观分析师也都讲过无数次。

Luke Gromen has gone over this a million every macro analyst has gone over this a million times.

左边那张幻灯片或者图表展示的是美国财政部如何通过发行短期票据来融资，而不是长期债券。

The the slide on the left or the visual on the left is showing how the US treasury has financed itself through bills as opposed to long duration.

所以，你知道的，当人们提到短期久期、长期久期时，意思就是你发行这些债务票据，那么这个票据的久期到底是多长呢？

So, you know, when people say short duration, long duration, it's you're issuing these debt notes, and, you know, what's the duration of the note?

比如十年期的美国国债，或者三十年期的美国国债。

Like a ten year US treasury or a thirty year US treasury.

这属于长期投资。

That's long term.

这叫久期很长，对吧？跟三个月的国库券比起来。

That's long duration, right, versus a three month bill.

三个月对比十年期。

Three month versus ten years.

一个是短期，一个是长期。

One is short, one is long.

现在美国财政部——也就是美国政府——一直靠短期融资，发短期国债。

Now the US treasury, so the US government, has been financing itself on the short end, issuing bills short.

他们这么做是因为长期债券需求不足，没法支撑政府因赤字需要发行的债务规模。

And they're doing that because the long end doesn't have enough demand to sustain the amount of debt that the government needs to issue because of the deficits.

政府每年想花两万亿美元，可实际上并没有这笔钱。

So the government wants to spend $2,000,000,000,000 a year that it doesn't have.

明白吧？

Okay?

它想制造两万亿美元的财政赤字。

It wants to run a $2,000,000,000,000 deficit.

如果可能的话，他们当然更想发十年期或三十年期的债券，但没人愿意借这么长时间给政府。

They would issue ten year, thirty years if they could, but there's not enough demand for people willing to lend to the government over that duration.

所以债券市场出现了供需失衡，这我们一直都在聊，记得债券的那些基本原理吗？

And so if there's a supply demand mismatch in the bond market, which we've talked about all the time, you know, remember bond math.

债券价格下跌时，收益率就会上升。

Yields go up when the bond value goes down.

对吧？

When right?

如果他们在长期限市场大量抛售，而需求又跟不上，那债券市场就会崩盘。

So if they're pushing a lot of supply to the long end and there's not enough demand to meet it, then they're going to break the bond market.

收益率会飙升到天上去。

Yields are gonna go to infinity.

所以，尽管美国国债市场非常脆弱，他们还是通过发行短期票据来为政府融资，变相补贴了财政支出。

And so the way that they've been able to to subsidize the US government despite having really fragile treasury US treasuries market is by substituting the financing via bills.

明白。

Okay.

这样做的后果是什么？

What are the consequences of that?

当你必须不断滚动续作这些短期债务时——要知道，这可是上万亿美元的规模。

Well, when you have to roll over all of the all of this short duration, I mean, this is trillions of dollars.

你看右边，私人持有的、一年内到期的美国国债已经超过了8万亿美元。

So on the right, you can see privately held marketable US treasury debt maturing within one year is now over $8,000,000,000,000.

所以关键在于，加息就像往火堆里泼汽油，因为谁最受融资成本上升的影响？

And so the point is, it like, raising interest rates is like pouring gasoline onto a fire, because who is the person most impacted by a higher cost of financing?

就是美国政府自己。

Well, the US government itself.

当你听到有人说，五十年前美联储曾大力加息，成功压住了通胀，这确实没错。

And so it's like it's like, you know, obviously, we when you hear stories of like, oh, well, you know, the Fed fifty years ago was really aggressive with rates and got inflation under control.

是的。

Yeah.

但五十年前，美国的债务占GDP比例还没到120%。

But fifty years ago, debt to GDP wasn't a 120 some odd percent.

那时候债务总额也没到40万亿美元。

They didn't have $40,000,000,000,000 of debt.

而且当时发债主要也不是靠短期国库券。

They weren't doing most of the issuance via bills.

别跟我提五十年前的事了。

Like, it doesn't don't tell me what happened fifty years ago.

现在完全是另一个世界了。

It's a different world.

以前是金本位的钞票，现在呢，全靠印钞，每年赤字两万亿美元，还去打那些根本负担不起的仗。

We had taken gold backed currency notes, and we've now just printed them out of thin air running $2,000,000,000,000 deficits, going to wars we can't afford.

所以说，加息这招根本就是笑话。

I mean, don't that's why raising rates is a joke.

更别说，人工智能行业最近压力还在持续加大。

Now on top of that, the AI industry continues to see stress.

我每周都得提一回，因为他现在没法再装作看不见了。

And I have to just say it every single week because he can't ignore it at this point.

我们之所以得关注AI市场，是因为它已经成了经济中举足轻重的一部分。

The reason we have to care about the AI market is it is such a it's become such a material part of the economy.

要是把AI和科技从经济数据里剔除掉，咱们现在简直就是经济萧条。

If you take AI and tech out of economic data, we are in, like, a depression.

事实上，由于这种K型经济的状况，很多美国人——说不定是大多数——早就陷入某种形式的衰退或萧条了。

In fact, because of this whole k shaped economy thing, I mean, a lot of America, maybe the majority, is in some form of recession depression and has been for quite some time.

所以人工智能必须成功。

So AI needs to succeed.

至于政府的看法，我得把它们和我个人的想法分开来看。

And the well, I don't I, you know, I have to divorce the US government's opinion from my personal opinion.

那可不是我自己的观点。

That's not my personal opinion.

我觉得它会成功的。

I think it will succeed.

我觉得这事儿特别有意思。

I think it's very cool.

但我真不确定这些美国的AI公司能不能真搞成。

But I if I'm not convinced that the these US AI companies are going to be successful.

我都不知道它们怎么打得过中国，这点我们待会儿再说。

I have no idea how they're gonna outcompete China, which we'll get to in a second.

但关键是，美国政府，尤其是特朗普政府，对此毫不含糊。

But the point is the US government, the Trump administration, there's been no if, ands, or buts about it.

人工智能具有战略意义。

AI is strategically important.

这关乎国家安全。

It is a national security event.

哪怕其他什么都不管，我们也必须在人工智能竞赛中胜出。

If anything else, we must win the AI race.

我们必须把制造业带回美国，围绕人工智能和能源生产实现再工业化，而且必须不惜一切代价赢得这场胜利。

We must reshor America as part of this reindustrialization around AI, around energy production, and and we must win with with like, it is at all cost win.

所以我们必须关注人工智能，一旦它出问题，市场就会开始承压。

So we have to pay attention to AI because if AI starts to face issues, you're gonna start to see stress in the market.

市场一承压，就可能走到需要救助的地步。

Stress in the market, you're getting to bailout territory.

到时候你就知道，情况真的不妙了。

You're getting to, like, okay.

你知道的，我们是眼睁睁看着整个西方文明帝国垮掉，还是印钞票来维持它？

Well, you know, do we let this whole, you know, US Western civilization empire collapse, or do we print the money and sustain it?

那我们现在面临的情况是什么样的呢？

So what are we looking at here?

这是看那些支持AI或为AI提供资金的人的信用风险。

This is credit credit risk across AI backers or AI financiers.

所以这点你们得记在心里，我就算每周都得说一遍也没关系：AI的钱可不是靠盈利现金流来支撑的。

So something that you guys need to keep in mind, and I'll say it I'll say it every single week if I have to, AI is not financed out of profitable cash flow.

这些人借了天文数字的钱，而最大的借款方都是那些不产生利润的公司。

These guys are borrowing an insane amount of money, and the biggest borrowers are companies that don't produce profits.

所以目前看来，根本没有路径去偿还这些债务。

So there is no path currently to pay that back.

当然，你借钱是因为你觉得未来的价值会高于现在。

Now, obviously, you borrow money because you think your future will be worth more than your present.

如果情况确实如此，而且他们能产生源源不断的巨额利润，那对他们来说当然是好事。

And so if that's true and they're able to produce loads and loads and loads of profits, good for them.

但这就是为什么中国竞争对他们来说像是一把抵在喉咙上的刀，他们恨不得把那种东西封杀。

But that's why Chinese competition seems to be like a knife to the throat of these guys where they're like, ban that shit.

我真不敢相信我会说出这话，OpenAI的高管竟然说开源不好。

Or I can't believe I'm saying AI open AI executives say open source is bad.

我的意思是，除非是个道德指南针完全颠倒的怪人，否则没人会说开源不好。

I mean, you'd have to be some kind of fucked up human with the moral compass backwards to say that open source is bad.

但这些人就是这么说的。

But this is what these guys are saying.

他们为什么这么忌惮中国？

Why are they so threatened by China?

要是中国进入市场，哪怕只是稍微有点竞争力，他们原本指望未来能赚到的那些利润就会受到严重威胁。

Well, if China comes in and is even marginally competitive to their business, well, all of the profits that they were banking on somehow achieving in the future is severely threatened.

就算别人只抢走20%或30%的市场份额，也足以让他们之前做出的所有融资决策变得毫无意义，彻底打水漂。

Even if someone comes in and takes 20%, 30% market share in sum, that's enough to have made all of the financing decisions that they've already chosen moot and totally worthless.

对吧？

Right?

那他们是从哪儿借的钱？

So who are they borrowing money from?

目前还没到美国政府跟银行联手搞大规模、实质上有政府背书的融资那一步，那种做法纯粹就是印钞，会引发严重的通胀。

Well, we haven't gotten to a point where the US government in combine in combination with the banks have been doing, like, large swaths of effectively government backed financing, which is that highly inflationary, pure money printing.

在我看来，比特币现在的表现就是在提醒我们，目前的流动性根本撑不住这么大的盘子。

That's when you know, my interpretation of of Bitcoin is it's calling out there's not enough liquidity to support all of this right now.

现在到处都是错误的投资，而且很多人其实都在裸泳。

There is a ton of malinvestment going on, and there's a ton of people swimming naked.

所以比特币从去年底就开始发出信号了，它一直在这儿等着局势明朗。

And so Bitcoin has pointed this out since the end of last year, and it's been sitting here waiting for a resolution.

我管这叫法币流动性的烟雾报警器。

I call it this fiat liquidity smoke alarm.

我觉得，一旦美国政府实际上给这些烂摊子兜底，比特币绝对会让大家大吃一惊。

I think Bitcoin is going to rip people's face off if and when the US government de facto backs all of this garbage and says, whatever.

OpenAI 估计是搞砸了，谁也不知道他们能不能成为一家好公司。

OpenAI probably fucked up, and who knows if they're gonna be a good company.

但到了这个节骨眼上，他们可绝不能失败，所以随便吧。

But we they can't fail at this point, so whatever.

管他呢。

Screw it.

到时候比特币、黄金，还有所有这些资产都会大涨。

Then Bitcoin, gold, all of these things are going to rip.

而且时间拖得越久，这些问题被抛出来的次数越多，陷入困境的人越多，中国又在人工智能领域给美国带来真正的技术威胁，比特币和其他资产就越会反复震荡、下跌。

And the more time goes on and the more these questions are presented and the more trouble in peep people get in trouble and the more China presents, like, legitimate technology threats in the AI sector to The United States, then the more, like, Bitcoin and other assets are going to chop around and fall.

那现在是谁在借钱给他们？

So who's lending the money today?

甲骨文、微软、亚马逊、Meta。

Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta.

这就是我们眼前看到的情况。

That's what we're looking at right here.

所以这里涉及甲骨文、微软、软银、AMD、Meta、亚马逊和CoreWeave。

So this is Oracle, Microsoft, SoftBank, AMD, Meta, Amazon, CoreWeave.

明白吗？

Okay?

看看这些公司的信用风险。去年年中那会儿，除了甲骨文，其他家几乎没什么风险。现在情况变了，大家意识到这个趋势是实实在在的。

Look at the credit risk across these businesses, which was, you know, virtually nothing in the middle of last year outside of Oracle, and now they're all like, this trend is real.

我不是说这些公司没有信用价值，而是我想表达的是，市场开始把它们看作一个巨大的、不再那么确定的关联押注了。

Now it's not saying that these businesses aren't credit worthy, but I think the point is that the market is starting to assess this as one giant correlated bet that is not certain any longer.

懂了吧？

Okay?

意思是说，并不是说有些能成、有些不成，风险还分散在各处，不是那样的，完全不是。

Meaning, it's not as if like, oh, like some of this might work out, some not, and, you know, oh, the risk is isolated over it's like, no, no, no.

如果这事儿黄了，风险会摊到所有放贷方身上。

It's like, if this doesn't work out, like, the risk is spread across all of these lenders.

谁都没法独善其身。

Nobody is safe.

风险高度集中，这再次暗示政府很可能会出手兜底或进行救助。

There's concentrated risk, which, again, it continues to imply that there's probably going to be a government backstop, government bailout.

而今天，有一家公司几乎是唯一一个拥有独特产品、生产成本低但售价高，现金流爆棚、股价直冲云霄的公司。

And then today, one of the only companies that seem to have a unique product that was cheap for them to produce relative to the cost they were able to sell it, cash flow out the wazoo, stock through the roof.

英伟达宣布，将为OpenAI提供高达两千五百亿美元的融资担保。

NVIDIA came out and said, they're gonna guarantee $250,000,000,000 in financing to OpenAI.

我早就说过，OpenAI根本还没盈利。

And I've been calling out OpenAI for a while now of like, are not profitable.

在未来五年内，他们看不到盈利的路径。

The path to profitability is not within the next half decade.

那你说，对于一家连五年都还没撑到的公司，有什么模型能可靠地预测五年之后的事？

So, I mean, what, like, what model is reliable that's further than five years out for a company that's not even five years old?

我们到底在讨论什么？

I mean, what are we talking about?

具体细节包括英伟达提供担保，帮助OpenAI租赁软银在俄亥俄州开发的十吉瓦项目。

So the details include guarantees from NVIDIA to help OpenAI lease a 10 gigawatt project that SoftBank is developing in Ohio.

整个项目总成本可能超过五千亿美元。

In total, the project could cost more than $500,000,000,000.

这些数字说出来真有点难以启齿。

It's hard to say these numbers out loud.

简直太离谱了。

I mean, they're just so preposterous.

成本超过五千亿美元，这是有史以来规模最大的数据中心项目。

Cost more than $500,000,000,000, the largest data center project ever announced.

这个项目的电力供应由美国政府掌控，资金则通过最近的一项贸易协议由日本单独提供。

The power for the project is controlled by the US government and funded separately by Japan under a recent trade deal.

这可是个重要信号。

Signpost.

据报道，商务部长卢廷克正在参与决定谁能获得电力供应。

Commerce secretary Lutnick is reportedly involved in deciding who will get the power.

有意思。

Interesting.

数据中心的建设一下子上了一个全新的台阶。

The data center build out just hit a whole new level.

现在说到英伟达，别忘了，它可是目前标普500指数中市值最大的公司。

Now NVIDIA, I have on the left, don't forget, is the largest waiting in the S and P 500 right now.

他们的信用风险大幅飙升。

Their credit risk jumped tremendously.

看起来仅仅因为今天的这项公告，信用风险就跳涨了40个基点，涨幅高达100%，股价也遭到重挫。

It looks like it jumped jumped 40 basis points over a 100% just based on this announcement today, and the stock got hammered.

整个股市都因为这些决定而遭受重创。

The whole stock market got hammered because of these decisions.

Jim Chenos 写道，我们现在处于这样一个阶段：英伟达必须为大约三分之二的芯片成本提供融资担保，这些芯片是卖给数据中心项目的。

Jim Chenos writes, so we're at the point in the cycle where NVIDIA has to provide financing guarantees for roughly two thirds of the cost of the chips that is selling to the data center project.

接着他又补充说，为了让你对这个数字有多大有个概念，它相当于英伟达总留存收益的 135%。

And then he follows up to that and says, just so you have an idea of how immense that figure is, it represents a 135% of NVIDIA's total retained earnings.

我是说，这些数字简直大得离谱，荒谬至极。

I mean, these are gargantuan preposterous numbers.

我们看到的情况是，所有这些资金的融资被不断向下推，一直推到美国政府的层面。

And what we're seeing is the financing of all of this keeps getting pushed further and further down the stack until you get to the US government.

所以现在英伟达成了最后的贷款人。

So now NVIDIA is the lender of last resort.

那他们还要多久才会被认为信用不佳呢？

And and how long until they're deemed not creditworthy?

我觉得这条推文说得特别到位。

And, you know, I thought this tweet was spot on.

市场现在不再为这种循环融资和收入互相倒手的行为买单了。

The market doesn't reward circular financing and revenues round tripping each other anymore.

这场闹剧该结束了。

Time is up on this whole charade.

这大概就是我一直在说的。

That's kinda what I've been saying.

我不是说人工智能本身是场闹剧。

And I'm not saying AI itself is a charade.

我每天都在用人工智能。

I use AI every day.

它已经站稳脚跟了。

It's here to stay.

我觉得这项创新简直不可思议。

I think it's an unbelievable innovation.

就像我刚才说的，这跟我的世界观非常契合。在我看来，人类的历史就是不断把太阳能商业化的过程。

And like I said, it's very in line with my worldview where I think the human story is commercializing energy from the sun.

比特币就是能源货币。

Bitcoin is energy money.

我们把能源变成了一种可以商业化的商品，还能从中获利。

We have commercialized energy into a market good that we can monetize.

这真是令人难以置信的发明。

That's unbelievable invention.

人工智能正在把能源商业化，把它变成触手可及、价格低廉的智能。

AI is commercializing energy and turning it into accessible cheap intelligence.

这真是令人难以置信的发明。

That's an unbelievable invention.

我是说，谁知道一年、五年甚至十年后世界会变成什么样呢。

I mean, who knows where the world's gonna be in a year, in five years, in ten years.

不过，中国真的会保持竞争力，然后把所有人工智能技术都开源出来吗？

However, is China gonna be really competitive and just open source all of AI?

是不是存在投资失误的情况？

Has there been malinvestment?

到底谁来为这一切提供资金并买单呢？

Who's gonna finance and pay for all of this?

这些问题到现在都没人给出答案。

None of those questions have been answered.

我觉得之前存在大量的错误投资。

I think there's been tons of malinvestment.

咱们聊聊吧，涉及到的金额都是万亿级别的。如果你觉得当年疫情期间的印钞规模已经很大了，那你得知道，投进AI项目的那些错误投资更是天文数字。难道没人想过中国也会具备竞争力吗？

And when we're talking about, you know, on the order of trillions of dollars, guys, like, if you thought the COVID print was big, all of the malinvestment that's gone into AI projects, did nobody think China was gonna be competitive?

我是说，这些假设、风险评估和决策简直让人难以置信，我真不知道最后会怎么收场。

I mean, it's mind blowing assumptions and risk and decisions that have been made, which I don't know how it's gonna work out.

但关键是，软银今天大跌了。

But the point is SoftBank was down big today.

英伟达今天也跌得很惨。

Nvidia was down big today.

市场本质上是在说：这账算不下去。

The market is basically saying, we can't make the math work.

我也觉得这账算不下去。

And I also can't make the math work.

那就走着瞧吧。

And so we'll see.

我觉得美联储和美国财政部，也就是政府和央行，迟早得做个决定：我们到底要保护谁。

Inevitably, I think the Fed and the US Treasury, so the government and the Federal Reserve, are gonna have to decide who are we protecting.

让我换个说法。

Are we who are we let me say it another way.

我们愿意让谁垮掉？

Who are we willing to let fail?

你愿意看到甲骨文、谷歌、Meta这些公司都垮掉吗？

Are you willing to let Oracle, Google, Meta, all these companies fail?

你愿意让OpenAI和Anthropic倒闭吗？

Are you willing to let OpenAI and Anthropic fail?

你愿意让中国赢得人工智能竞赛吗？

Are you willing to let China win the AI race?

你愿意让那些账上堆满烂账的商业银行彻底崩盘吗？

Are you willing to let these commercial banks that probably have dog shit loans riddled throughout their books fail?

如果不愿意，那所有这些问题都得用纸糊过去，这也没问题。

If not, all of this has to be papered over, which is fine.

比特币要冲上天了。

Bitcoin's going to the moon.

如果你真这么想，那我们接下来要经历的这段日子，恐怕没什么投资价值了，毕竟世界可能会彻底乱套。

Now if you are, well, you know, I don't know how investable that little time that we'll have to live through will be because, I mean, the world will fall apart.

但最终它还是会重建起来，我觉得到时候会用上比特币。

It will get built again, and I think it will use Bitcoin.

归根结底，比特币就是我们在货币领域能接触到的最具竞争力的东西。

Ultimately, Bitcoin's just the most competitive thing we have access to in regards to money.

不过，不管怎么说，比特币最终都会赢。

But, I mean, yeah, either way, Bitcoin will win.

我觉得他们会用印钞来掩盖这些问题，而比特币会嗅到这些流动性，成为最大的吸收者，因为它的稀缺性是最高的。

I think that they're going to paper this over, print their way through it, and Bitcoin is gonna sniff that liquidity out and be the greatest absorber of it because it's the scarcest thing.

对吧？

Right?

但是，我是说，各位，每周都有新的AI动态，越来越有意思了。

But, I mean, guys, every single week, this AI stuff just gets a little more interesting.

对吧？

Right?

现在突然之间，英伟达开始为2500亿美元提供担保。

Now all of a sudden, NVIDIA's backing guaranteeing a $250,000,000,000.

跟大家说下，他们这么做的原因是因为OpenAI现在借不到钱了，没人愿意借钱给它。

And just so you guys know, the reason they're doing that is because OpenAI is has lost like, OpenAI no no one's willing to lend to OpenAI.

我换个说法吧。

Let me say it that way.

而且，我是他们产品的用户。

And I, like, I use their products.

我觉得他们做的产品确实挺棒的。

I think OpenAI is great in regards to the products I use.

不过我在那儿没熟人。

I'm I don't know anyone that works there.

我不是在胡说八道，但情况就是这样。

I'm not, like, talking shit, but it's like, okay.

没有银行愿意借钱给这些人。

No bank was willing to lend to these people.

所以他们得让英伟达来兜底，这样才能拿到资金支持来搞建设。

So they had to get NVIDIA to backstop it in order for them to get the backing to build this stuff.

这样我们就能继续这样下去，资产负债表越来越大，贷款方也越来越大，直到最后没人再具备信用资格为止。

So we can continue to kinda, like, shuffle through larger and larger balance sheets, bigger and bigger lenders before no one's credit worthy anymore.

没人能拿到贷款，因为根本还不起这么多钱。

No one can get a loan because there is no ability to pay all of this back.

然后你再去问美国政府，好吧。

And then you ask the US government, like, okay.

你是希望股市和银行体系崩溃，还是说我们必须赢得这场AI竞赛，所以得把这些债务货币化，直接印钱？

Do you want, you know, the stock market and your banking system to fall apart, Or, you know, do we must win the AI race and you gotta monetize your all of this debt and you print it?

所以我们就走着瞧吧。

So we'll see.

但看起来整个AI信贷泡沫正朝着某个终点狂奔。

But it seems that this whole AI credit bubble thing is racing towards some finish line.

而且，这又是另一回事了。

And that and that's another thing.

当我看到市场在定价时，他们好像在说，对，没错。

When I when I see the market pricing in, like, is they're saying, oh, yeah.

利率肯定会上调。

Is definitely gonna raise rates.

这些借钱的人现在要面对利率上调了。

It's like these guys borrowing all this money are gonna go through a rate hike.

总得有人撑不住。

Someone's gonna blow up.

我就直说了。

I'm calling a spade a spade.

肯定有人撑不住。

Somebody's gonna blow up.

他倒是有这个可能。

So he might though.

沃什确实有可能。

Warsh might yeah.

他得证明自己的独立性。

He's gotta establish his independence.

特朗普在媒体上一直喊着要削减、削减、削减。

Trump is out on the airwaves saying cut, cut, cut.

沃什必须让外界看到美联储是独立的。

Warsh has to show that the Fed is independent.

他在这方面一直很明确。

He's been clear on that.

他来这里不是为了救任何人。

He's not here to bail anybody out.

这确实是他的原话。

That those are exactly his words.

美联储来这里不是为了救任何人。

The Fed's not here to bail anybody out.

明白了。

Okay.

他可以加息。

He can hike.

我没说他不能加息。

I'm not saying he can't.

我真的不觉得他该这么做。

I really don't think he should.

不过也无所谓了。

But whatever.

如果有人突然出事，我一点都不意外。

I I just wouldn't be surprised if someone blew up.

我的意思是，上次就是这样的。

I mean, mind you, that's what happened last time.

他们当时大幅加息了。

They hiked rates a bunch.

硅谷银行就崩了。

Silicon Valley Bank blew up.

历史不会重演，但总是惊人的相似。

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.

明白了。

Okay.