The Last Honest Market

大家好。

Hey, guys.

我是杰克。

It's Jack.

我写了一篇叫《最后的诚实市场》的文章。

I wrote something called The Last Honest Market.

这篇文章是在我经历一段相当痛苦的时期时写的，不是在一切已经想清楚、所有问题都圆满解决之后写的。

I wrote it from the middle of a pretty painful stretch, not from the other side where every lesson has been figured out and everything's been tied into a neat bow.

这是一篇相当坦诚的作品。

It's a fairly vulnerable piece.

它最初是关于比特币熊市的一篇随笔。

It started as an essay about Bitcoin bear markets.

但写着写着，它慢慢变成了一种尝试，想弄明白为什么比特币能同时让人如此痛苦，又如此充满希望，为什么它总在打击我，而我为什么总能从这些低谷中回来，变得更好，多亏了比特币。

But somewhere along the way, it became an attempt to understand why Bitcoin can be both so painful and so hopeful at the same time and why it keeps kicking my ass and why I keep coming back from these seasons a better man thanks to Bitcoin.

所以，我现在会完整朗读一遍，给那些更喜欢听音频或看视频的人。

So I'm gonna read it in full here for anyone who prefers the audio or video.

那么，接下来我要分享的是《最后的诚实市场：比特币熊市与我们误以为是惩罚的馈赠》。

And so with that being said, this is The Last Honest Market, Bitcoin Bear Markets and the Gifts We Mistake for Punishment.

在你阅读之前，先说一句。

A note before you read.

这篇文字的初稿，是我在今年7月11日星期六早上写的，那时我还没从21公司离职。

I wrote the first version of this essay on the morning of Saturday, July 11, before I resigned from 21.

当时我的打算很简单：周一早上一上班就发出去。

At the time, my plan was simple, publish it first thing that Monday morning.

但到了7月12日星期日晚上，我的团队告诉我，必须等我们公开宣布我离职之后，才能发布这篇文章。

On Sunday night, July twelfth, my team told me I could not release it until after we publicly disclosed I was stepping down.

真无奈，真痛苦，完全不像我，这就是熊市的样子。

So fiat, so painful, so not me, so bear market.

等你读到这段话的时候，我已经正式辞去了二十一资本首席执行官的职务。

By the time you are reading this, I have resigned as CEO of Twenty One Capital.

之后我对文章做了一些修改，尤其是这一段和关于二十一资本的措辞，但我尽量没因为后来发生的事去重写那些原本的问题。

I have revised it since then, especially this note and the language around Twenty One, but I have tried not to rewrite the questions in light of what has happened since.

这些内容讲的是这个熊市带来的一切疑问。

These pages are about all of the questions that came with this bear market.

我不希望这些话读起来像在为自己辩解。

I do not want these words to read like justification.

我希望它们能独立站得住脚。

I want them to stand on their own.

但若假装我的离职和我所描述的这个阶段毫无关系，那也是不诚实的。

However, pretending my resignation is unrelated to the season I'm describing would be dishonest too.

最简单的事实是，公司正在变成的样子，和我原本以为自己该去打造的公司，已经不再一致了，所以我选择离开。

The simplest truth is that the company Twenty One was becoming and the company I believed I was there to build were no longer the same, so I chose to step away.

这个决定并不能抹去我为未能实现的期望所负的责任。

That decision does not erase my responsibility for helping create expectations that were not ultimately fulfilled.

人们信任我。

People trusted me.

我能感受到这一点。

I feel that.

我认了。

I own it.

这不是一篇事无巨细解释一切的文章。

This is not the essay where I explain in every detail.

这篇文章其实是我早在生活逼我回答那个决定背后的疑问时，就已经在写的。

It is an essay I was already writing while life was forcing me to answer the questions underneath that decision.

关于领导力、金钱、自我、信念、目标、我到底在建造什么，以及为谁而建的问题。

Questions about leadership, money, ego, conviction, purpose, what I am actually building, and who I am building it for.

我原本想写一篇关于比特币熊市的宣言。

I started trying to write a Bitcoin bear market manifesto.

但写着写着，它渐渐变成了一次更个人的追问。

Somewhere along the way, it became more personal question.

为什么有些感觉像惩罚的阶段，最终却成了我们最感激的时光？

Why do some of the seasons that feel most like punishment become the ones we are eventually most grateful for?

哪些惩罚不是礼物？

What punishments are not gifts?

我希望五年后，当比特币在成为世界货币的道路上更进一步时，这篇文字依然值得阅读，因为我从没真正在谈‘21’。

I hope that five years from now, with Bitcoin further along its path toward becoming the world's money, this essay is still worth reading because I do not think it was ever really about '21.

我觉得它谈的是比这大得多的东西。

I think it was about something much bigger.

第一章，你好，熊市。

Chapter one, hello, bear market.

你好啊，熊市，老朋友。

Hello, bear market, my old friend.

我又来找你聊聊了。

I have come to speak with you again.

我坐在屋顶上，喝了一口浓缩咖啡。

I take a sip of espresso on my roof.

芝加哥的周六早晨，阳光正好。

It is a sunny Saturday morning in Chicago.

我看了眼比特币价格，64350.35美元。

I checked the Bitcoin price, $64,350.35.

然后我打开X，简直像战场。

Then I open x, war zone.

有一部分是真实的。

Some of it is literal.

还有一部分是比特币社区在价格低迷、大家疲惫、愤怒、过度曝光、感到被忽视，又觉得全怪别人时的惯常反应。

Some of it is the Bitcoin community doing what the Bitcoin community does when the price is down and everyone is tired, angry, overexposed, underappreciated, and convinced someone else is to blame.

比特币目前比历史高点低了大约50%，按历史标准来看还算温和。

Bitcoin is roughly 50% below its all time high, which is mild by historical standards.

我经历过足够多的周期，见过更糟的情况，但这次的情绪可能是我记忆中最差的一次。

I've been around long enough to see far worse, yet sentiment may be as bad as I can remember.

这让我开始思考，为什么比特币的熊市会这么让人痛苦。

That has had me thinking about why Bitcoin bear markets hurt so much.

这种痛苦不只是钱的问题。

The hurt is not only financial.

对我来说，它感觉像是一种个人的、近乎精神上的打击。

For me, it feels personal, spiritual almost.

因为说实话，我现在正被虐得够呛。

Because to be honest with you, I am getting my ass kicked right now.

我不是在风暴过后平静地写这些话。

I am not writing this from the peaceful other side of the storm.

我还在风暴里，继续被磨平棱角，还在学习一些我目前还没完全懂的道理。

I am still in it, still getting humbled, still learning lessons I do not fully understand yet.

人们觉得我就是那个穿连帽衫的年轻比特币玩家。

People see me as the young Bitcoin guy in the hoodie.

这也没错。

Fair enough.

我18岁的时候就发现了比特币。

But I found Bitcoin when I was 18.

我现在32岁，写这些的时候。

I'm writing this at 32.

我经历过好几轮周期，一路建过公司，帮着把比特币带进一个国家，也经历过赞誉、批评，对过、错过，被挫过、被惊过。

I have lived through several cycles, built companies through them, helped bring Bitcoin to a country, been celebrated, criticized, right, wrong, humbled, and surprised.

十四年玩比特币，这种感觉也不会消失。

Fourteen years in Bitcoin does not make the feeling disappear.

成本低了，也不代表你就刀枪不入。

A lower cost basis does not make you immune.

经验能让你认出天气的变化，但拦不住风暴来袭。

Experience helps you recognize the weather, but it does not prevent the storm.

这里有个矛盾，我正努力想明白。

Here is the contradiction I am trying to understand.

我是个比特币信徒，正身处熊市的低谷，被狠狠打击，可却比以往任何时候都更有动力去建设。

I am a Bitcoiner sitting in the depths of a bear market, getting my ass kicked, and somehow feeling more motivated to build than ever.

这真疼。

It hurts.

但我依然充满希望。

I am hopeful.

我以前也经历过，每次熊市都夺走一些东西，但每次我都能重新站起来，变得更好。

I've been here before, and every time a Bitcoin bear market has stripped something away, I have come back a better man.

为什么？

Why?

为什么比特币的感觉跟其他所有东西都不一样？

Why does Bitcoin feel so different than everything else?

为什么痛得这么让人上瘾？

Why does it hurt so good?

经历了这么多教训和痛苦，我为什么还是不断回到这种互联网货币上？

Why, after all of the lessons and all of the pain, do I keep coming back to this Internet money?

第二章，被管理的世界。

Chapter two, the managed world.

我越琢磨这些问题，就越觉得答案要从我出生时的世界说起。

The more I sit with those questions, the more I think the answer begins with the world I was born into.

现代生活中，很少有东西是原原本本直接来到我们面前的。

Very little in modern life reaches us raw.

大多数东西都经过了各种系统的处理，先被软化过一遍。

Most of it passes through systems designed to soften it first.

如果市场跌得太快，就暂停交易。

If the market falls too quickly, halt it.

如果银行倒闭，就出手救助。

If a bank fails, rescue it.

如果债务压得人喘不过气，就重新安排还款。

If debt becomes unbearable, refinance it.

如果亏损变得政治上难看，就让全民来承担。

If losses become politically inconvenient, socialize them.

如果后果来得太快，就设法拖延。

If consequences arrive too quickly, delay them.

这些想法单独看，其实都不算疯狂。

None of these ideas are insane on their own.

人之所以设缓冲，是因为生活本来就不容易。

Human beings build buffers because life is hard.

我们盖房子是因为有风暴，研发药物是因为有疾病，制定法律是因为有暴力。

We build houses because storms exist, medicine because disease exists, and laws because violence exists.

文明本身，在很多方面，其实就是一系列缓冲机制的集合。

Civilization itself is, in many ways, a collection of buffers.

问题不在于我们建立了这些缓冲。

The problem is not that we build them.

问题在于，我们忘了它们只是缓冲，反而把它们当成了现实本身。

The problem is when we forget they are buffers and begin mistaking them for reality.

一个从不让后果显现的系统，就失去了告诉我们什么必须改变的机会。

A system that never lets consequences arrive has no opportunity to teach us what must change.

就拿你家前院的草坪来说吧。

Take your front lawn, for example.

草坪不可能自然长成一片完美的绿毯。

A lawn does not naturally grow into a perfect green carpet.

它会长得参差不齐。

It grows unevenly.

杂草会冒出来。

Weeds appear.

种子会随风飘散。

Seeds travel.

天气会改变它的样子。

Weather changes it.

动物也会来搅乱它。

Animals disturb it.

如果放任不管，它就会变得杂乱野生。

Left alone, it becomes wild.

剪草是不是坏事？

Is mowing your lawn bad?

不是。

No.

当然不是。

Of course not.

但我们要明白，漂亮的草坪是靠人维护出来的。

But it's important we understand that a beautiful lawn is maintained.

这都是时间、精力和不断维护的成果。

It is the product of time, labor, energy, and intervention.

一旦你不再投入这些，草坪的平整感就会消失。

Stop spending those things and the smoothness disappears.

你就会得到一片杂乱的草坪，转眼间，草坪看起来一塌糊涂，你老婆也气炸了。

You get a raw lawn, and just like that, your lawn looks like shit and your wife is furious.

有时候，看起来最平整的服务，恰恰需要最多的人工干预。

Sometimes the smoothest looking services require the most human intervention.

加工食品、修图过的身材、社交媒体上的生活——现代人已经沉迷于这些经过修饰的版本。

Processed food, photoshopped bodies, social media lives, modern society has become addicted to the edited version.

再次强调，干预本身并不一定是坏事。

Again, intervention is not automatically bad.

错误在于，以为表面光鲜就等于内在健康。

The mistake is assuming the edited surface is a healthy one.

表面的平静可能代表强大，但也可能掩盖了一个失去应对变化能力的系统。

A calm appearance can reflect strength, but it can also conceal a system that has lost the ability to survive moment movement.

压制波动并不会消除风险。

Suppressing volatility does not eliminate risk.

它只是把风险藏起来了。

It hides it.

你可以叫停市场，但你没抹掉底下那些决策。

You can halt a market, but you have not erased the decisions underneath it.

你可以救助银行，但没补上它资产负债表上的窟窿。

You can bail out a bank, but you have not repaired the hole in its balance sheet.

你可以重组债务，但没创造出能支撑这些债务的生产力。

You can refinance debt, but you have not created the productivity that would have justified it.

你可以让公众承担损失，但损失本身并没有消失。

You can socialize losses, but you have not made them disappear.

你只是把它们从制造者身上，转嫁到了没制造的人身上。

You have moved them from the people who created them to the people who did not.

表面是更平滑了，但底下系统却越来越弱。

The surface gets smoother, but the system underneath gets weaker.

如果你长期活在这样的世界里，真实的世界会渐渐显得残酷。

If you live inside that kind of world long enough, raw reality begin begins to feel cruel.

真实的价格让人感觉像暴力。

A true price feels violent.

后果看起来不公平。

A consequence feels unfair.

一个拒绝救你的系统，会让人觉得它已经坏了。

A system that refuses to rescue you feels broken.

也许这就是为什么比特币感觉如此不同。

Maybe that is why Bitcoin feels so different.

我熟悉的这个世界总想保护我，不让我学到这个教训。

The world I am used to keeps trying to protect me from the lesson.

比特币不会。

Bitcoin does not.

第三章：当痛苦能带来教益。

Chapter three, when pain can teach.

波动不是脆弱。

Volatility is not fragility.

波动是看得见的变动。

Volatility is visible movement.

脆弱是指经不起变动的冲击。

Fragility is the inability to survive movement.

一个系统即使剧烈波动，也可能依然非常强大。

A system can move violently and remain incredibly strong.

另一个系统表面看似平静，却越来越容易崩溃。

Another can appear perfectly calm while becoming easier and easier to break.

波动其实就是被显现出来的信息。

Volatility is simply information made visible.

它告诉你，有些事情已经变了。

It tells you something has changed.

有人犯了错。

Someone was wrong.

有人借得太多了。

Someone borrowed too much.

有人对风险定价错了。

Someone mispriced risk.

有人建了个容易出问题的东西。

Someone built something fragile.

大家都以为安全的东西，其实并不安全。

Something everyone believed was safe was not safe.

在一个诚实的系统里，这些问题迟早会浮出水面。

In an honest system, that information is allowed to surface.

有时候挺痛的，但很有用。

Sometimes it hurts, but it is useful.

信息让我们能发现问题并修正。

Information allows us to correct.

修正让我们能更好地适应。

Correction allows us to adapt.

适应让我们变得更坚韧。

Adaptation makes us more resilient.

痛苦会转移。

The pain moves.

它终会到来。

It arrives.

它说出真相，并逼迫我们做出回应。

It tells the truth and forces a response.

如果我们愿意倾听，它就能过去，让系统比之前更强大。

If we listen, it can pass through and leave the system stronger than it found it.

被管控的系统恰恰相反。

Managed systems offer the opposite trade.

它们压制了揭示问题所在的关键信号。

They suppress the signal needed to understand what is broken.

表面看似平静，但 underneath 的痛苦却在加剧。

The surface goes quiet while the pain grows underneath.

舒适是保住了，但弱点也一并保留了下来。

Comfort is preserved, but so is the weakness.

所以我才觉得，比特币的熊市虽然痛苦，却也带着希望。

That is why I think a Bitcoin bear market can feel painful and hopeful at the same time.

痛苦说明信号还在，还没消失。

The pain means the signal is still alive.

调整的机会依然存在。

Correction is still possible.

这个系统还保有足够的自由，能让人学到东西。

The system remains free enough to teach.

我们当然喜欢修剪整齐的草坪，但生活中有些事，我们付不起让老师闭嘴的代价。

And as much as we enjoy a nicely mowed lawn, there are parts of life where we cannot afford to silence the teacher.

第四章，钱不是你的前院草坪。

Chapter four, money is not your front lawn.

钱不是你的前院草坪。

Money is not your front lawn.

你可能希望自己的草坪被打理得整整齐齐。

You might want your lawn curated.

你可能也希望婚礼处处完美，但有些信息太过重要，不能随意筛选。

You might want your wedding curated, but some information is too important to curate.

你肯定不希望医生替你隐瞒血液检查的结果。

You do not want your doctor curating your blood work.

如果扫描发现异常，一位有同理心的医生不会为了不让你难过就美化图像。

If a scan shows something dangerous, a compassionate doctor does not smooth the image over because the truth might upset you.

真相可能会让你害怕。

The truth may scare you.

它可能改变你的人生，但正是它让你有机会做出应对。

It may change your life, but it is also what gives you the chance to respond.

有些信息绝对不能被操控。

Some information is too important to manipulate.

钱就属于这一类。

Money belongs in that category.

金钱是人类文明创造的最重要的信息体系之一。

Money is one of the most important information systems civilization has ever created.

它让陌生人能够合作，让价值跨越时空流动，让数十亿从未谋面的人协调彼此的生活。

It allows strangers to cooperate, value to move through time and across space, and billions of people who will never meet to coordinate their lives.

它告诉我们人们看重什么、什么稀缺、什么充裕、该建什么、该停建什么、能量该流向哪里、又在哪里被浪费。

It tells us what people value, what is scarce, what is abundant, what should be built, what should stop being built, where energy should flow, and where it is being wasted.

和一片草坪不同，金钱是极其个人化的。

Unlike a patch of grass, money is deeply personal.

它代表你的劳动、你的付出、你的判断、你的风险、你的延迟满足，以及你的时间。

It is your labor, your sacrifice, your judgment, your risk, your deferred gratification, your time.

它把你的生命抽象成一种形式，即使你花掉了，它仍能在世界上继续流通。

It is your life abstracted into a form that can move through the world after you have spent it.

金钱就是信息。

Money is information.

金钱就是尊严。

Money is dignity.

当金钱说谎时，文明就开始对虚假的重要信号做出反应。

When money lies, civilization begins responding to false vital signals.

人们开始建造错误的东西。

People build the wrong things.

他们追逐错误的激励。

They chase the wrong incentives.

他们把杠杆当成智慧，把资产升值当成生产力，把流动性当成远见，把表面平静当成系统健康。

They mistake leverage for genius, asset inflation for productivity, liquidity for wisdom, and a calm surface for a healthy system.

你一眨眼的功夫，一个看起来正儿八经的机构就在告诉你，护身符比牛排还健康。

You blink, and an official looking institution is telling you lucky charms are healthier than steak.

信号 somewhere 出了问题。

The signal broke somewhere.

你想摆弄你家门前那片草坪？

You wanna manipulate the patch of grass in front of your house?

行啊。

Fine.

但当你操控货币时，你操控的是人类用来组织生活的信息。

But when you manipulate money, you manipulate the information human beings use to organize their lives.

这直接侵犯了人的尊严。

That cuts into human dignity itself.

我想这就是为什么我18岁那年被比特币吸引住了。

I think that is why Bitcoin grabbed me when I was 18.

那时候，我以为我爸发现了一个古怪但有趣的投资机会。

At the time, I thought my dad had found a weird but interesting investment.

但我还没看透深层的意义。

I had not gone deep enough.

我真正发现的，也是我们至今仍在构建的，是一种拒绝提供更便捷答案的货币体系。

What I had actually found and what we are all still building is a monetary system that refuses to give the world a more convenient answer.

没有政府，没有央行，没有救助委员会，没有政客，没有CEO，没有董事会，没有任何人挡在现实和账本之间，也没有人决定今天的真相太让人难堪了。

No government, no central bank, no bailout committee, no politician, no CEO, no board of directors, no one standing between reality and the ledger, no one deciding today's truth had become too uncomfortable.

比特币自行传播，比特币自行验证，比特币自行结算。

Bitcoin propagates, Bitcoin validates, Bitcoin settles.

不管TikTok下个版本怎么改。

No matter what TikTok next block.

比特币并不创造真相。

Bitcoin does not create truth.

它只是揭露真相，不管谁想把它藏起来。

It exposes the truth regardless of who wants it hidden.

我开始明白，自由并不是没有痛苦。

Freedom, I am beginning to realize, is not the absence of pain.

而是没有编辑者。

It is the absence of an editor.

那么，当货币——这个协调社会的信息系统——足够自由地说出真相时，会发生什么？

So what happens when money, the information system that coordinates society, is free enough to tell the truth?

第五章：原始数据流。

Chapter five, the raw feed.

依我所见，诚实的货币会让世界显得更广阔、更绚丽、更有生命力。

In my experience, honest money makes the world feel bigger, more colorful, more alive.

好处之大，超出了所有人的想象。

The upside becomes larger than anyone imagined.

坏处也同样如此。

So does the downside.

在我们大半生里，所经历的现实都是已经被加工过的版本。

For most of our lives, we experience a version of reality that has already been processed.

棱角都被磨平了。

The rough edges are sanded down.

尖锐的部分也被圆润了。

The sharp corners rounded off.

后果总是被推迟。

The consequences delayed.

比特币直接给你原始的真相。

Bitcoin hands you the raw feed.

有时候，这令人屏息。

Sometimes it is breathtaking.

有时候它令人恐惧。

Sometimes it is horrifying.

通常两者都有。

Usually, it is both.

我知道，因为我都亲身经历过。

I know because I have lived both.

十四年下来，这感觉比我所知的任何事都更接近科学。

After fourteen years, this feels as close to science as anything that I know.

不管你认为比特币牛市能有多好，它还能更好。

However good you think a Bitcoin bull market can get, it can and will get better.

不管你认为比特币市场能有多糟，它还能更糟。

However bad you think a Bitcoin market can get, it can and will get worse.

没人能挡得住。

No one gets to stand in the way.

我曾以为比特币能改变人生。

I thought Bitcoin could change lives.

我以为比特币能帮助企业成长，构建金融基础设施，给人提供更好的储蓄方式。

I thought it could build companies, create financial infrastructure, and give people a better way to save.

我从来没想过，自己会参与推动萨尔瓦多将它列为法定货币。

I never imagined I would help introduce it as legal tender in El Salvador.

你能相信这真的发生了吗？

Can you believe that happened?

一种没有总部、没有CEO、没有董事会、也没有中央规划者的开源货币，竟然在一个国家成了法定货币。

An open source money with no headquarters, no CEO, no board, and no central planner became legal tender in a country.

没有人下令让这个未来成真。

Nobody ordered that future into existence.

也不需要任何委员会来批准。

No committee had to approve it.

人们发现了它的价值，就自然而然地向它靠拢。

People recognized something valuable and moved toward it.

希望从不征求许可。

Hope does not ask permission.

这就是一个自由而诚实的体系令人惊叹的地方。

That is the breathtaking side of a free and honest system.

希望、爱、联结、抱负。

Hope, love, connection, ambition.

当一个想法的时机到来时，可能性所能抵达的距离，远超任何人想象。

When an idea's time has come, possibility can travel farther than anyone imagined.

可怕的一面，也是同样的道理。

The horrifying side works the same way.

看看2022年的熊市。

Take the 2022 bear market.

我以为这会很痛苦。

I thought it would be painful.

我预计价格会下跌，公司会艰难，宽松的资金也会消失。

I expected prices to fall, companies to struggle, and easy money to disappear.

我没想到，像FTX这样最大的交易所之一，会变成一场数十亿美元的骗局。

I did not expect one of the largest exchanges in FTX to turn into a multibillion dollar fraud.

回头想想，我早该有所警觉的。

Looking back, I probably should have.

我知道萨姆满嘴胡话，但重点不在他个人。

I knew Sam was full of shit, but the point is bigger than Sam.

诚实的系统终究会揭穿那些被掩盖的东西。

Honest systems eventually reveal what was hidden.

它们会暴露过度杠杆、糟糕的资产负债表、虚假的商业模式、靠吹嘘而非实力建立的信任，以及只在价格上涨时才有效的空话。

They reveal leverage, weak balance sheets, fake business models, confidence borrowed instead of earned, and stories that worked only while prices were rising.

人们常说熊市会摧毁一切。

People often say bear markets destroy things.

我觉得这种说法不太准确。

I do not think that is quite right.

熊市揭露的是真相。

Bear markets reveal things.

真正的破坏其实早就发生了。

The destruction happened earlier.

熊市让所有人都没法再自欺欺人了。

The bear market removes everyone's ability to pretend otherwise.

比特币并没有制造骗局。

Bitcoin did not create the fraud.

它只是最终不再替这些谎言遮掩了。

It eventually refused to keep lying about it.

它没有制造杠杆。

It did not create the leverage.

它停止了为杠杆买单。

It stopped subsidizing it.

它没有制造糟糕的商业模式。

It did not create the weak business.

它不再允许廉价资金去掩盖这些问题。

It stopped allowing easy money to disguise it.

真相一直都在那里。

The truth was always there.

滤镜消失了。

The filter disappeared.

熊市不只是让投资组合缩水。

Bear markets do not just mark down portfolios.

它还揭穿了那些故事。

They mark down stories.

关于你以为自己是谁、有多聪明、以为永远有效的方法、以及成功该是什么样子的故事。

Stories about who they thought they were, how smart they thought they were, what they thought would always work, what success was supposed to look like.

牛市给我们讲的是我们愿意相信的故事。

Bull markets tell us stories we would like to believe.

熊市则问：这些故事里，哪些是真的？

Bear markets ask which of those stories are true.

最终，比特币会把这个问题抛给你自己。

And eventually, Bitcoin turns that question toward you.

第六章，市场让我认识了自己。

Chapter six, the market introduced me to myself.

我知道这些，因为我亲身经历过很多次。

I know all of this because I have lived it many times.

2022年在比特币大会上，我宣布了一些从未面市的产品。

In 2022 at the Bitcoin conference, I announced products that never made it to market.

那时候，我以为自己正在做创始人该做的事——描绘未来、激励他人、展现信念。

At the time, I believed I was doing what founders are supposed to do, paint the future, inspire people, show conviction.

这其中确实有道理。

There is truth in that.

创始人需要信念。

Founders need conviction.

他们应该看得更远，打造用户还没意识到自己需要的东西。

They should see around the corners and build things customers do not yet realize they need.

但在那层表象之下，还藏着其他真相，只是当时掌声雷动，我根本看不见。

But there were other truths hiding underneath that one, truths I could not see while everyone was clapping.

我渐渐把势头当成了能力，把关注当成了成果，把愿景当成了执行。

I had started confusing momentum for competence, attention for proof of work, vision for execution.

我越来越在意发布消息，而不是真正把产品做出来。

I had become more interested in announcing than shipping.

写这句话的时候，心里还是很难受。

That sentence still hurts to write.

这样很好。

Good.

就应该这样。

It should.

那确实是事实。

It was true.

市场并没有让我难堪。

The market did not humiliate me.

它让我看清了自己。

It introduced me to myself.

牛市让我以为自己是对的。

The bull market convinced me I was right.

熊市逼得我不得不变得有用。

The bear market forced me to become useful.

这句话至今仍是我在谈论自己比特币生涯时，最坦诚的一句话。

That is still the most honest sentence I know how to write about my life in Bitcoin.

而现在，我又回到了这里。

And now here I am again.

这周，我辞去了Twenty One公司CEO的职务，这家公司是我参与创办的。

This week, I stepped down as the CEO of Twenty One, a company that I helped start.

公司后来走的路，和我原本相信的方向已经分道扬镳，所以我选择了离开。

The path the company was taking and the one I believed in had diverged, so I chose to step away.

这只是我的说法，并不是全部真相。

That is my side of the decision, not the whole story.

人们相信了我所说的我们要打造的东西。

People believed in what I said we were going to build.

但最终的结果，并不是我当初承诺的那样。

The outcome was not what I told them it would be.

有些决定我本可以做得更好，这一点我认了。

There were decisions I could have made better, and I own that.

我不是要在这里事无巨细地解释，但若假装我的离职和我所说的熊市毫无关系，那就太不诚实了。

This is not where I explain in every detail, but pretending the resignation is separate from the bear market I am describing would be dishonest.

这不过是大环境的一部分。

It is part of the weather.

这是现实在我面前问：你到底是不是你口中说的那个人。

It is one of the ways reality is asking me whether I am who I say I am.

当一条更轻松、回报更高的路摆在我面前时，我还没来得及想清楚，心里就已经说不了。

When the easier, more lucrative path was placed in front of me, I felt myself say no before I could fully reason it out.

并不是出于什么英雄气概。

Not in a heroic way.

而是因为我早就说过，有些东西根本就不是用来卖的。

Rather, I had spent years saying that some things are simply not for sale.

这次是我第一次真正要验证，自己是不是真的这么想。

This was a rare time where I had to find out whether I meant it.

情境不同，错误不同，学到的教训也不同，但那种感觉却莫名相似。

Different circumstances, different mistakes, different lessons, somehow a similar feeling.

我现在被狠狠地教训了一顿。

I am getting my ass kicked.

眼下，我还说不准这段经历最终想带我去哪儿，想教我什么。

Right now, I do not know exactly where this season is trying to take me and what it is trying to teach me.

我有些想法，但我也明白，不能因为受不了不确定性就急着找一个完美的答案。

I have some ideas, but I have learned not to rush toward a clean answer simply because uncertainty is uncomfortable.

我知道它在问我一些我现在还答不上来的问题。

I know it is asking me questions I cannot yet answer.

我知道它正在一层层剥掉我的自以为是。

I know it is stripping away another layer of ego.

我知道，我不会以进来的样子离开。

I know I will not leave it exactly as I entered it.

希望我离开的时候，能比进来时更好。

Hopefully, I will leave better.

最让我惊讶的，就是这一点。

That is what keeps surprising me.

所有的痛苦，从来都不是白受的。

The pain has never been for nothing.

每次我让比特币把课上完，我都会回来得更管用、更清醒、更不容易被打倒，我所打造的东西也是如此。

Every time I have let Bitcoin finish the lesson, I have come back more useful, more discerning, and harder to break, and so has what I build.

第七章：什么样的惩罚不是礼物？

Chapter seven, what punishments are not gifts?

当我回望这一切，想到自己活在一个足够诚实、愿意带来痛苦、教训和真相的系统里，我总忍不住想一个问题。

As I reflect on all of this, on living inside a sit a system honest enough to deliver pain, lessons, and truth, I keep returning to a strange question.

如果我能把比特币变得更容易，我会这么做吗？

If I could make Bitcoin easier, would I?

如果我能消除熊市，抹平波动，让痛苦消失，我会吗？

If I could remove the bear markets, smooth away the volatility, and mute the pain, would I?

以前的我，肯定想都不想就说是。

A younger version of me would have said yes in a heartbeat.

今天，我老实说，我不会这么做。

Today, I honestly do not think I would.

并不是因为我学会了喜欢痛苦。

It's not that I've learned to love pain.

事实上，痛苦本身并不会自动让人变好。

In fact, pain does not automatically improve anyone.

艰难的时刻只会暴露那些脆弱的东西。

Hard times reveal what is weak.

这些发现能否变成力量，取决于我们接下来怎么做。

Whether those revelations become strengths depend on what we do next.

我不会让比特币变得更简单，因为那样就意味着，我得允许某人随时打断这个课程，只要答案太痛苦了。

I would not make Bitcoin easier because to do that, I would have to give someone the power to interrupt the lesson whenever the answer became too painful.

我得允许世界在比特币的答案太痛苦时就去改变它。

I would have to let the world change Bitcoin whenever Bitcoin's answer became too painful.

那样一来，比特币就和别的东西没什么两样了。

And then Bitcoin would become just like everything else.

我得抹去那些让我难堪的时刻、让我谦卑的时刻、逼我倾听而非表演的时刻、让我变得有价值的时刻。

I would have to erase the moments that embarrassed me, the moments that humbled me, the moments that forced me to listen instead of perform, the moments that made me useful.

我得抹去那些塑造了今天的我、让我比昨天更尊重自己的生命片段。

I would have to erase the parts of my life that shaped me into someone I respect more today than I did yesterday.

我从未主动选择过这些惩罚，但我绝不会退回它们带来的馈赠。

I would never have chosen those punishments, but I would never give back the gifts.

现在我明白了，为什么这种痛这么让人上瘾。

Now I understand why this hurts so good.

比特币拒绝迁就我们的舒适区。

Bitcoin refuses to bend to our comfort.

它逼着我们向现实低头。

It forces us to bend toward reality.

我们没法强迫它去挽救我们的杠杆、保护我们的自尊、维持一个虚假的生意，或者验证我们在价格飙升时编给自己的故事。

We cannot force it to rescue our leverage, protect our ego, preserve a false business, or validate the story we told ourselves while prices were rising.

比特币能改变世界，是因为世界改变不了比特币。

Bitcoin can change the world because the world cannot change Bitcoin.

我们并不是现实的创造者。

We are not the authors of reality.

我们只是其中的参与者，是自然的孩子，而不是它的主宰。

We are participants in it, Children of nature, not its masters.

比特币正是建立在这种谦逊之上的货币。

Bitcoin is money built on that humility.

也许正因如此，这种痛苦反而带着一丝希望。

Maybe that is why the pain feels strangely hopeful.

痛苦是真实的，但那份自由也是真的。

The pain is real, but so is that freedom.

没有人能修改答案。

There is no one editing the answer.

这里依然有某种力量，能够纠正我们。

There is still something here capable of correcting us.

想想你最敬重的那些人。

Think about the people you respect most.