印钞机原理：为何这次不同

美国政府每年支出比收入多出大约两万亿美元。

The United States government spends roughly $2,000,000,000,000 per year more than it takes in.

它完全靠借钱运转。

It runs entirely on borrowed money.

那么，同一个国家怎么还能反过来借给其他国家数百亿美元呢？

So how exactly is that same country able to turn around and lend tens of billions of dollars to other nations?

答案从键盘开始，到你的食品杂货价格结束。

And the answer starts with a keyboard and it ends with the price of your groceries.

过去一个月，每周评论里都会出现同样的问题。

Every week for the past month, the same questions keep coming up in the comments.

主要是，这些钱从哪来？

Mainly, where does this money come from?

这是所有你解释不清的头条新闻背后的问题。

And this is the question behind every headline you cannot quite explain.

这是金融界和华盛顿几乎没人愿意直面的问题。

It is the question almost nobody in finance or Washington will answer plainly.

但看完这个视频，你就会明白答案，整个机制从上到下都会清楚。

But by the end of this video, you will understand the answer, the full machine from top to bottom.

而且一旦你看明白了，就再也无法忽视它。

And once you can see it, you can't unsee it.

不过先讲个故事，因为我们今天所处的这个体系，其实是三百年前那台机器的升级版。

But first, a story because the system that we live in under today is a more sophisticated version of a machine that was built three hundred years ago.

1716年，法国破产了。

In 1716, France was broke.

老国王路易十四刚去世，留下了一屁股战争债务。

The old king Louis XIV had just died and left the country buried under a war debt.

这笔债法国根本还不起。

It could never hope to repay.

国库空空如也。

The treasury was empty.

经济完全停滞。

The economy was frozen.

就在这种绝望的境地里，来了一个苏格兰人，名叫约翰·劳，他是个赌徒，也是个魅力十足的人，曾经因为决斗杀人被判死刑，不得不逃离自己的国家保命。

And into that desperation walked a Scotsman named John Law, a gambler, a charmer, a man who had once been sentenced to death for killing somebody in a duel and had to flee his own country to save his own life.

劳有一个极具诱惑力的想法，法国政府因此把整个经济的大权都交给了他。

Now Law had an idea so seductive that the French government handed him the keys to the entire economy.

这个想法就是：别再拿黄金当货币了。

And the idea was this, stop using gold as currency.

黄金太重了。

Gold is heavy.

黄金稀缺，永远不够用。

Gold is scarce, and there is never enough of it.

不如我们自己创造货币。

Instead, let's create our own currency.

让银行印纸币，这种纸你想印多少就印多少，什么时候需要就什么时候印。

Let the bank print paper money, paper that you can create as much of as you need whenever you need it.

起初，这效果确实不错。

Now for a while, it was magnificent.

纸币在法国泛滥成灾。

The paper money flooded France.

约翰·劳公司的股票一路飙升，普通人一夜暴富。

Stock in John Law's companies went straight up, and ordinary people got rich overnight.

事实上，“百万富翁”这个词就是在那些年的巴黎创造出来的，用来形容那些靠约翰·劳的纸币发了大财的人。

In fact, the word millionaire was coined in Paris during these years to describe the people that got fabulously wealthy on John Law's paper money.

所以，它一直运转良好，直到有那么几个人开始对纸币的价值感到不安，要求把纸币换回黄金。

So it worked right up until the moment when a few people got nervous about the quality of their paper money and asked to trade it back in for gold.

因为，凭空创造出来的钱，有个关键问题。

Because here's the thing about money that you can create from nothing.

只要没人要求兑换真金白银，它就能完美运转。

It works perfectly as long as nobody asks for the real thing.

但一旦有人开始要求兑换，这个幻象就会崩塌。

But the second people start asking, the illusion collapses.

而在1720年，它崩塌了。

And in 1720, it collapsed.

法国的纸币变得一文不值，法国也因此元气大伤，以至于将近一个世纪都不再信任纸币，甚至连“银行”这个词都不愿意提。

The paper in France became worthless and France was burned so badly, it would not trust paper money or even the word bank for the better part of a century.

现在，我希望你把这个故事记在心里，因为我们今天所处的体系，是约翰·劳体系的一个更复杂的版本，只不过我们更擅长掩盖黄金问题罢了。

Now I want you to hold that story in the back of your mind because the system that we live under today is a more sophisticated version of John Law's system, but we simply just got better at hiding the gold problem.

那么，让我们回到刚才的问题。

So let's get back to our question.

钱是从哪里来的？

Where does the money come from?

让我从最底层讲起，因为其他一切都建立在这个基础之上。

Let me start at the very bottom because everything else is built on top of this.

美国政府的支出超过了税收收入。

The United States government spends more than it collects in taxes.

不是偶尔，而是每年都如此，而且差额非常大。

Not occasionally, every single year by a very wide margin.

如今，在典型的一年里，它的支出比收入多出大约两万亿美元。

In a typical year today, it spends roughly $2,000,000,000,000 more than it takes in.

那这缺失的两万亿美元从哪来呢？

So where does that missing $2,000,000,000,000 come from?

我跟你说，他们是借来的。

Let me tell you, they borrow it.

政府通过卖借条来填补这个缺口。

The government covers the gap by selling IOUs.

那就是国债。

That's a treasury bond.

国债说白了就是一个承诺。

A treasury bond is nothing more than a promise.

你今天借钱给政府，以后它会连本带利还给你。

Lend the government money today and it will pay you back later with interest.

两年期国债两年后还你。

A two year bond pays you back in two years.

十年期国债十年后还你。

A ten year bond in ten.

这就是全部的产品。

That is the whole product.

几十年来，这些借条被认为是地球上最安全的投资，因为大家都认为美国政府总是会还债的。

For decades, these IOUs were considered the safest investment on earth because everybody assumed the US government always pays its debts.

所以全世界都排队来买。

So the world lined up to buy them.

其他政府、养老基金、银行，还有你和我。

Other governments, pension funds, banks, you and me.

所以这就是第一个答案。

So that is the first answer.

政府的钱从哪里来？

Where does the government's money come from?

它通过卖债券、卖借条来借钱。

It borrows it by selling bonds, by selling IOUs.

但这只是把问题往后推了一步，因为现在我们得问，谁买这些债券，如果买的人不够多，会发生什么。

But that just moves the question back a step because now we have to ask who buys the bonds and what happens if not enough people want to.

这就是整个事情变得有意思的地方。

And that is where this whole thing gets interesting.

现在，政府并不是在像eBay这样的网站上卖债券。

Now, the government does not sell its bonds on a website like eBay.

它是在拍卖会上卖，就像你卖一幅画，谁出价最高就卖给谁。

It sells them at an auction the same way you would sell a painting to whoever bids the highest.

但这里有个几乎没人知道的细节。

But here is the part that almost nobody knows.

政府并不是单纯指望有足够多的买家来买它的债务。

The government doesn't simply hope that enough buyers show up to buy its debt.

它有一份保证买家名单，这些买家依法必须到场，他们被称为一级交易商。

It has a guaranteed list of buyers who are legally required to show up, and they are called the primary dealers.

大约有二十多家。

There's about two dozen of them.

24家大银行和交易公司，比如摩根大通和高盛。

24 big banks and trading firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.

作为特殊准入的交换条件，他们每一家都有义务在每次国债拍卖中出价。

In exchange for special access, each one of them is obligated to bid at every single Treasury auction.

这些就是第一顺位的买家。

These are the buyers of first resort.

正因为有他们，拍卖总能顺利完成，即使是在真实需求疲软的日子里。

They are the reason the auction always clears, even on the days when real demand is weak.

所以，到目前为止，想象一下这台机器。

So picture the machine so far.

政府需要钱。

The government needs money.

它印出一堆借条，然后举行拍卖。

It prints up a stack of IOUs and holds an auction.

一级交易商被迫出价。

The primary dealers are forced to bid.

于是拍卖就成交了。

So the auction clears.

政府拿到了它需要的钱。

The government gets the money that it needs.

大家都能回家了。

Everybody gets to go home.

但是那些经销商，那些一级经销商可不想手里攥着那么多债券，那么多欠条。

But the dealers, those primary dealers don't wanna sit on all those bonds, all those IOUs.

所以他们转身又把这些债券卖给别人，卖给日本，卖给养老基金，卖给你。

So they turn around and sell them again to everybody else, to Japan, to pension funds, to you.

这种转售发生在所谓的二级市场。

This reselling happens in what is called the secondary market.

而二级市场才是真正有故事的地方。

And the secondary market is where the real story lives.

现在，关于这一点，你需要明白一个规则，而且这个规则比华尔街想让你相信的要简单得多。

Now here is the one rule you need to understand about this, and it is much simpler than Wall Street would like you to believe.

当很多人想买债券时，价格就会上涨，而利率实际上会下降。

When lots of people want to buy bonds, the price goes up and the interest rate actually goes down.

当很多人想卖债券时，价格会下跌，但利率会上升。

When lots of people want to sell bonds, the price goes down, but the interest rate goes up.

价格和利率总是朝相反方向变动。

Price and interest rate move in opposite directions always.

那为什么会这样呢？

Now, why is that the case?

从买家的角度来看。

Think of it from the buyer side.

如果一只债券每年支付50美元利息，而我可以用一千美元买下它，那就是5%的回报。

If a bond pays $50 a year in interest and I can buy it for a thousand dollars, that's a 5% return.

但如果大家都在抛售这只债券，那我就能以八折的价格买到，也就是800美元，我每年还是能拿到50美元的利息，但投入的本金更少了。

But if everybody's dumping that same bond, then I can scoop it up for 80¢ on the dollar, so $800, I'm still getting my $50 per year payment, but on a smaller outlay.

我的回报率就上去了。

My return just jumped.

实际利率上升了，不是因为政府提供了更高的利息，而是因为资产价格下跌了，而支付的利息保持不变。

The effective interest rate rose, not because the government offered more, but because the price of the asset fell and the payment remained the same.

现在把这个逻辑放大来看。

Now scale that up.

当世界局势稳定，大家都对美国国债市场有信心时，债券价格高企，政府就能以很低的成本借钱。

When the world is predictable and everybody has confidence in the US Treasury market, prices are high and the government borrows cheaply.

但一旦持有者开始集中抛售来换取现金，比如去公开市场买石油，价格就会下跌，而政府下一轮融资需要支付的利率也会随之攀升。

But when holders start selling all at once to raise cash, maybe to buy oil on the open market, prices fall and the interest rate the government has to pay on its next round of borrowing climbs.

这个利率有个专门的名称。

The interest rate has a name.

华尔街管这个叫收益率。

Wall Street calls it the yield.

而收益率是全球经济里最重要的一个数字。

And the yield is the single most important number in the global economy.

这里有个我常看到的误区，值得澄清一下。

Now, here is a confusion that I see constantly, and it's worth clearing up.

大多数人以为美联储直接设定利率。

Most people think the Federal Reserve sets the interest rates.

确实如此，但只是其中一种利率。

And it does, but only one of them.

美联储设定的是隔夜利率，也就是基准利率，是银行之间互相拆借一夜资金所收取的利率。

The Fed sets the overnight rate, the base rate, the rate banks charge each other to borrow for a single night from each other.

这就是新闻里常说的美联储降息或加息时提到的那个利率。

And that is the rate you hear about on the news when the Fed cuts or hikes rates.

但决定你房贷利率的并不是这个。

But that is not the rate that sets your mortgage.

你的房贷、车贷，以及政府发行三十年国债要付的利率，这些跟的都是长期国债收益率。

Your mortgage, your car loan, the rate your government pays to borrow for thirty years, those track the long term treasury yields.

而这些收益率并不是美联储定的。

And those yields are not set by the Fed.

它们是由市场决定的，由供需关系决定，由买卖双方在每时每刻的交易中决定。

They are set by the market, by supply and demand, by buyers and sellers every second of every day.

所以，美联储降息了，房贷利率反而可能上升，就是这个原因。

And that is why the Fed can cut its base rate and mortgages can go up anyway.

美联储控制的是隔夜利率，但真正影响你生活的利率是由市场决定的。

The Fed controls the overnight rate, but the market controls the rate that actually runs your life.

当全世界开始抛售美国国债时，无论美联储怎么想，市场都会把利率推高。

And when the world starts selling US bonds, the market drags that rate higher no matter what the Fed wants.

现在你明白这个机制是怎么回事了。

So now you understand the engine.

政府通过拍卖来借款。

The government borrows by auction.

一级交易商负责为拍卖提供流动性支持。

The primary dealers backstop the auction.

债券在二级市场交易，那里的供需关系决定了价格，也就是整个经济的融资成本。

The bonds trade in the secondary market and supply and demand in that market set the price, the borrowing cost for the entire economy.

但这里有个问题。

There's just one problem.

如果抛售压力太大，导致收益率飙升到政府根本无力承担的水平，那该怎么办呢？

What happens when the selling gets so heavy that the yield climbs to a level that the government cannot afford?

而真正的货币创造，就发生在这里。

And this is where money is actually created.

当真实买家不愿意以政府能接受的价格出现时。

When real buyers will not show up at a price the government can live with.

一旦收益率面临失控的风险，美联储就会亲自下场买入债券，把价格托住，让利率保持低位。

When the yield threatens to spiral, the Federal Reserve steps in and buys the bonds themselves, keeping price high and rates low.

而且美联储买这些债券用的钱，既不是赚来的，也不是收上来的税，更不是借来的。

And the Fed does not buy them with money it earned or money it taxed or money it borrowed.

它用凭空变出来的钱去买这些债券。

It buys them with money it creates on the spot.

美联储的某个人在电脑里敲个数字，上一秒还不存在的美元，下一秒就出现了。

Somebody at the Federal Reserve enters a number into a computer and dollars that did not exist one second ago exist now.

美联储就用这些刚变出来的新美元，去买那些别人都不想要的债券，从而把价格托住，让收益率重新降下来。

The Fed uses those brand new dollars to buy the bonds nobody else wants, which props the price back up and pushes the yield back down.

这里根本没有什么印钞机。

There's no printing press.

其实就只是一台键盘。

There's just a keyboard.

就这么简单。

That's all it takes.

一级交易商是首选的买家。

The primary dealers are the buyer of first resort.

美联储是最后的买家。

The Federal Reserve is the buyer of last resort.

它有一本无限额的支票簿，因为它的支票簿是凭空变出来的。

The one with an unlimited checkbook because its checkbook is conjured for nothing.

当你听到量化宽松或QE这个词时，它指的就是这个。

When you hear the term quantitative easing or QE, this is all it means.

当全世界都不愿意买政府债务时，美联储创造新钱来买。

The Fed creating new money to buy the government's debt when the world will not do it.

所以现在你完全明白钱是从哪里来的了。

So now you have the full answer to where the money comes from.

钱来自两个地方。

It comes from two places.

政府通过卖债券来借钱。

The government borrows it by selling bonds.

当买家不够时，美联储就凭空印钱，自己买下这些债券。

And when there are not enough buyers, the Fed creates it out of thin air and buys those bonds themselves.

记住这一点，因为我们马上要看到同样的把戏，做出一些本不可能的事情。

Now hold on to that because we're about to watch the same trick, do something that should not be possible.

有个问题可能会让你停下来思考。

Here's a question that should stop you in your tracks.

我们刚刚确认，美国每年大约借两万亿美元，因为它没有足够的钱。

We just established that The United States borrows roughly $2,000,000,000,000 per year because it does not have enough money.

它需要世界其他地方每个季度继续借钱给它，才能维持运转。

It needs the rest of the world to keep lending to it every quarter just to keep the lights on.

那么，如果是这样，这个国家怎么还能反过来借给其他国家几百亿美元呢？

So how exactly, if that's the case, is that same country able to turn around and lend tens of billions of dollars to other nations?

因为这就是一直在发生的事情。

Because that is what's been happening.

过去两个月里，阿联酋以及据报道的一连串海湾和亚洲国家都跑到华盛顿，要求紧急美元，这就是所谓的货币互换额度，也就是一家央行向另一家央行提供的短期美元贷款。

Over the past two months, The United Arab Emirates and reportedly a whole string of Gulf and Asian countries have gone to Washington asking for emergency dollars for what is called a currency swap line, a short term loan of dollars from one central bank to another.

那么，一个完全靠借钱运转的国家，怎么突然就变成了贷款方呢？

Now, how does a country that runs entirely on borrowed money suddenly become a lender?

答案还是那个键盘。

And the answer is the same keyboard.

美联储提供互换额度时，并不是从金库里拿钱。

When the Fed extends a swap line, it does not dip into a vault.

也不是从纳税人那里拿美元。

It does not pull the dollars from taxpayers.

它借的不是自己有的钱。

It's not lending money that it has.

它借的是自己创造出来的钱。

It's lending money that it creates.

它按需把这些美元敲出来，然后发给外国央行。

It types those dollars into existence on demand and sends them to the foreign central bank.

所以一旦你理解了键盘，这个矛盾就消失了。

So the contradiction dissolves the moment you understand the keyboard.

一个破产的人没法借给你他的积蓄，但一个拥有印钞机的人可以整天给你送一叠叠新钞。

A broke man cannot lend you his savings, but a man with the money printer can send you a stack of fresh bills all day long.

美国并不是因为富有才借钱给别人。

The United States is not lending from a position of wealth.

它借钱是因为它能无限印钞。

It is lending from a position of unlimited money creation.

这两者是完全不同的。

Those are very different things.

现在，这里出现了一些尖锐的问题，值得直接回答。

Now, couple of sharp questions have come up here and they deserve straight answers.

之前几集里，有些人在评论区问，为什么请求货币互换的国家不直接用它的美国国债作为抵押来借美元，也就是用资产做普通贷款，而不是用特殊的互换额度？

Some of you in the comments with previous episodes have asked, why doesn't the country requesting the swap line just use its US Treasury bonds as collateral to borrow the dollars, a normal loan against assets instead of a special swap line?

事实上，确实可以这么做。

And the truth is that it could.

这叫做回购协议。

That's called a Repo.

但是，抵押这些债券，或者更糟的是卖掉它们来筹集现金，会给刚才讨论的债券市场带来压力。

But pledging these bonds or worse selling them to raise the cash puts pressure right back on the bond market we just discussed.

这正是华盛顿极力避免的情况。

The exact thing Washington is so desperate to avoid.

互换额度更干净，因为美联储直接创造美元，不需要出售或杠杆化任何债券。

The swap line is cleaner because the Fed simply creates the dollars and no bonds have to be sold or leveraged.

还有人问，这不是财政部在做吗？

Now others have asked, isn't it the treasury doing this?

而且财政部不是只有有限的资金吗？

And doesn't the treasury have only a limited pot?

这个说法也对。

And that's also correct.

这才是关键所在。

And this is the key.

财政部确实有这笔钱，但它的额度就像花园里的水管或者一个水壶。

The treasury does have the funds for this, but it's like a garden hose or a water can.

对吧？

Right?

它是有限的，而且可能很快见底；而美联储则像一根消防水带，没有关闭开关。

It's finite and it can run dry where the Federal Reserve is a fire hose with no off switch.

所以当紧急美元的需求变得很大，而且确实在变大时，真正的后盾、唯一足够强大的后盾就是美联储，这意味着接下这个烂摊子的人将是下一任美联储主席。

So when the demand for emergency dollars gets large and it is getting large, the real back stop, the only one big enough is the Fed, which means the man who inherits this entire problem is the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

现在，货币互换协议并不是新鲜事物，了解它们的由来很有必要，因为历史已经清楚地告诉我们结局会怎样。

Now swap lines are not new, and it's worth knowing where they came from because the history tells you exactly how this ends.

它们诞生于2008年的恐慌时期，当时全球金融系统陷入停滞，全世界突然都缺美元。

They were born in the panic of two thousand and eight when the global financial system seized up and the whole world was suddenly short of dollars.

于是美联储向少数几家主要央行——比如欧洲、英国、日本、加拿大和瑞士——开放了货币互换额度，以防止整个全球金融体系崩溃。

And the Fed opened Swap Lines to a handful, a small handful of major central banks like Europe, Britain, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, to keep the system, the global system from collapsing.

而且确实奏效了。

And it worked.

美元放出去了，危机过去了，钱也还回来了。

The dollars went out, the crisis passed and the dollars were paid back.

2020年市场因疫情冻结时，美联储又这么做了。

The Fed did it again in 2020 when the pandemic froze markets.

同样的操作，还是那少数几个受信任的经济体。

Same playbook and same small club of trusted economies.

结果也一样。

Same outcome.

贷款都还清了，创造出来的美元也凭空消失了。

The loans were repaid and the created dollars vanished back into nothing.

而这就是关键所在。

And that is the crucial detail.

这个体系之所以能保持诚信，只有一个原因。

The system stayed honest for one reason.

贷款还清了，新钱又消失了。

The loans got paid back and the new money disappeared again.

没有造成永久性伤害。

No permanent harm.

键盘给钱，贷款到期时，键盘又把钱收走了。

The keyboard giveth and when the loan matured, the keyboard taketh away.

但注意是谁在借钱。

But notice who was borrowing.

一个极小的专属名单，都是地球上最稳定、信用最好的经济体。

A tiny exclusive list of the most stable and creditworthy economies on earth.

但现在看看这个名单正在发生什么变化。

But now watch what's happening to that list.

去年，这个俱乐部开始出现裂痕，阿根廷——一个货币波动全球最剧烈、违约历史悠久的国家——被允许加入了。

Last year, the club began to crack open and Argentina, a country with one of the most volatile currencies on the planet and a long history of default was let in.

然后在过去两个月里，阿联酋也来敲门了。

Then over the last two months, The United Arab Emirates came knocking.

而且在参议院作证时，财政部长确认，一些海湾和亚洲盟友已经请求建立自己的货币互换额度。

And in testimony before the Senate, the Treasury Secretary confirmed that a number of Gulf and Asian allies have requested swap lines of their own.

这是我的论点，我想说清楚。

This is my thesis and I want to be clear about it.

从美国借紧急美元的国家名单即将大幅扩大。

The list of countries borrowing emergency dollars from The United States is about to expand dramatically.

而随着名单扩大，整个体系会变得更加脆弱，而不是更稳固。

And as it does, the whole structure gets more fragile, not less.

原因如下。

And here's why.

只要借款方是经济稳健、能按时还贷的国家，美元就会消失，体系保持干净。

As long as the borrowers are rock solid economies that pay the loans back, the dollars vanish and the system stays clean.

但这场战争拖得越久，缺美元的国家越多，名单就越长，新成员的信誉度就越低，贷款真正被偿还的可能性就越小。

But the longer this war drags on and the more countries run short of dollars, the longer that list grows and the less credit worthy the new members are and the less likely it becomes that the loans truly get repaid.

那接下来会发生什么？

And what happens then?

贷款还不上，只能续借。

The loans don't get repaid, they get rolled.

截止日期被推迟或延长，或者干脆用新贷款替换旧贷款。

The deadline gets pushed or extended or a new loan just replaces the old one.

账面上显示已还清，但实际上什么都没还。

On paper, it says repaid, but nothing was actually repaid.

债务只是被推到了未来。

The balance just moves into the future.

华尔街给这种情况起了个名字。

Now Wall Street has a name for this.

他们管这叫‘修改、延期，然后假装没事’。

They call it amend, extend, and pretend.

就是修改贷款条款，把还款期限往后推，然后假装一切正常。

You amend the terms of the loan to extend the payment deadline and pretend that everything is fine.

但一旦贷款停止偿还，那些被创造出来的美元就不再消失了。

But the moment the loans stop getting repaid, the created dollars stop vanishing.

它们越积越多，永远不会降下来。

They pile up and they never come back down.

这就是对那些问极限在哪里的人的回答。

And that is the answer to the people asking where the limit is.

系统不会撞上一堵干净的墙。

There is no clean wall the system slams into.

而是一股缓慢的潮水，一堆凭空变出来的钱，随着每一笔展期贷款不断上涨，永远如此。

There is a slow tide, a pile of money conjured from nothing that simply keeps rising with each rolled loan forever.

而这已经不再是理论上的问题了。

And this is no longer theoretical.

那么，为什么这是我的论点呢？

Now, why is that my thesis?

因为霍尔木兹海峡关闭的时间越长，就会有越多的国家面临粮食或燃料耗尽的风险。

Because the longer the Strait Of Hormuz stays closed, the longer the list of countries that are going to run out of food or fuel.

他们不得不在公开市场上筹集现金来购买所需物资，因为供应链已经无法可靠地提供这些物资了。

And they'll have to raise cash to buy what they need on the open market because supply chains can't predictably provide it any longer.

他们筹集资金最好的办法就是抛售美国国债。

The best way for them to raise that cash is to sell US treasuries.

但大量抛售美国国债会直接导致市场崩盘，而这正是美联储极力避免的。

But too much selling of US treasuries crashes that market exactly what the Fed is trying to avoid.

那么，该怎么劝那些手头紧的经济体别卖掉他们流动性最强的资产——也就是美国国债——来换取购买粮食和燃料所需的钱呢？

So how do you convince a cash strapped economy not to sell their most liquid asset being US treasuries to raise the money they need to buy food and fuel?

很简单，直接借给他们需要的现金就行了。

Well, you lend them the cash they need.

你给他们提供货币互换额度。

You offer them a swap line.

这已经不是理论问题了。

And this is no longer theoretical.

本月数据证实，连锁反应已经开始了。

The data this month confirmed the cascade has already begun.

今年三月，日本抛售的美债规模超过了过去四年的总和。

In March, Japan sold more US government treasuries than it had in four years.

中国也卖了。

China sold too.

还有一长串其他国家也卖了。

So did a long list of others.

有一个国家，土耳其，卖美国债券卖得太猛，结果卖光了，最后不得不开始卖黄金。

One country, Turkey, sold its American bonds so aggressively that it ran out and then had to start selling its gold.

这就是现金紧张的样子。

This is what a cash squeeze looks like.

这就是我之前警告过的被迫抛售。

That is the forced selling I warned about.

它来了。

It's here.

看看华盛顿是怎么应对的。

And watch how Washington is responding.

过去两个月里，财政部长两次解除了对俄罗斯石油的制裁，在战争期间，为了让那些急需现金的国家有其他地方买燃料，这样它们就不用卖掉美国债券来买燃料了。

In the past two months, the Treasury Secretary has twice lifted sanctions on Russian oil, in the middle of a war to give desperate countries somewhere else to buy fuel so they don't have to sell their American bonds to afford it.

美国还在以史上最快的速度消耗其紧急石油储备，并将其运往海外。

The US is also draining its emergency oil reserve at the fastest pace in history and shipping it abroad.

目的相同。

Same purpose.

整个机器现在都在为一项任务运转。

The entire machine is now bent towards one job.

阻止全世界抛售美国的债务。

Stop the world from selling America's debt.

这就引出了最深层次的问题，也是我最希望你们思考的问题。

Which brings us to the deepest question of all, and the one I most want you to sit with.

如果美国在悄悄救助世界其他国家，防止债券市场崩盘，让其他国家的灯火继续亮着，那么到底是谁在承受损失？

If The United States is quietly bailing out the rest of the world, keeping the bond market from crashing and keeping everybody else's lights on, then who actually loses?

是那些获得美元的国家，还是美元本身？

The country's getting the dollars or the dollar itself?

让我尽可能直白地回答。

And let me answer as plainly as I can.

拿到货币互换协议的国家没问题。

The country that gets the swap line is fine.

他们拿到美元，电灯也能继续亮着。

They get their dollars and they keep their lights on.

债券市场也没问题。

The bond market is fine.

不会崩盘，因为没有被迫抛售的压力。

It does not crash because there's no forced selling into it.

华盛顿还能当个英雄。

Washington gets to look like the hero.

那谁买单呢？

So who pays?

美元买单。

The dollar pays.

每一张凭空印出来的新美元，都会让现有的美元贬值一点点。

Every new dollar created from nothing makes every existing dollar worth a little less.

而这种损失不会出现在头条新闻或债券拍卖中。

And that loss does not show up in a headline or a bond auction.

它悄无声息地渗透到你的生活里，体现在食品价格、房租，以及一年前还能多买点东西的工资上。

It shows up quietly in your life, in the price of your groceries, in your rent, in a paycheck that buys a little bit less than it did a year ago.

而这笔账单最终由谁来付呢？

And that is where the bill goes.

不是被救助的国家，而是那些持有和赚取美元的人，是那些工资永远跟不上物价的劳动者。

Not to the nation that got bailed out, but to the person holding and earning dollars to the worker whose wages never quite keep up.

这就是通货膨胀。

That is inflation.

而通胀就像一种秘密但致命的武器，政府经常使用，因为它是在多年间慢慢发生的。

And inflation is like a secret but deadly weapon that governments use all the time because inflation happens over years.

它是无形的。

It's invisible.

没人能把鸡蛋的价格追溯到美联储两年前做出的某个决定。

Nobody can trace the price of eggs back to a decision made at the Federal Reserve two years earlier.

所以没人被指责，或者被指责的是错误的人。

So nobody gets blamed or the wrong person does.

政客们把责任推给贪婪的企业、外国、移民或者上一届政府。

The politician blames greedy corporations or foreign countries or immigration or the last administration.

中央银行的名字从来不在敌人的名单上。

The central bank's name is never on the list of enemies.

所以，在人人可见的债券市场崩盘、政府没钱，和没人能怪到他们头上的缓慢侵蚀之间，他们每次都选择侵蚀。

So given the choice between a crash in the bond market that everybody sees and a government that runs out of money or a slow erosion that nobody can pin on them, they always choose the erosion every single time.

历史上每家中央银行，在被迫选择时，都会做出同样的决定。

Every central bank in history, when forced to choose, makes the same call.

有人会告诉你，这不是系统的缺陷。

And some will tell you this is not a flaw in the system.

这正是系统按设计运行的表现。

This is the system working exactly as it's designed.

一台悄悄把财富从持有美元的人转移到持有资产的人手中的机器。

A machine for quietly moving wealth from the people who hold dollars to the people who hold assets.

我不会说真有人坐在房间里专门画了个计划来针对你、抢你的钱，但我可以告诉你，不管是不是故意设计的，结果就是这样，而且几乎没人注意到它正在发生。

Now, I won't go as far as to say that somebody sat in a room and drew this plan up to rob you specifically, but I will tell you this, designed or not, that is precisely what happens and almost no one notices while it's happening.

这就是三百年后约翰·劳的那套机制，只不过现在是用键盘在运行，而不是印刷机。

That is John's law machine three hundred years later, running on a keyboard instead of a printing press.

接下来，你们当中会有几个人问出那个真正对你自己生活至关重要的问题。

Now, a few of you will ask the only question that actually matters in your own life.

你会说，好吧，明白了。

You'll say, okay, great.

知道了这些，我该怎么办呢？

What do I do with this information?

我不会直接告诉你该买什么、卖什么或者怎么打理你的投资组合，但我会分享我是怎么看待这个问题的。

Now, I'm not going to tell you what to buy or sell or what to do with your investment portfolio, but I will tell you how I think about it.

如果所有这些账单最终都通过美元缓慢贬值来买单，那么最糟糕的选择就是持有现金，以及那些以这种不断缩水的美元计价的纸面承诺。

If the bill for all of this gets paid through a slowly shrinking dollar, then the worst place to be is sitting in cash and on paper promises measured in that dollar.

而最好的选择是持有实物资产，稀缺的资源，以及那些无法仅仅靠键盘敲出来创造出来的东西。

And the best place to be is in the real things, the scarce things, the things that cannot be typed into existence on a keyboard.

比如能源、硬资产、黄金，这些不起眼的实物资产，在衡量标准缩水的时候能保值。

Things like energy, hard assets, gold, the boring physical stuff that holds its value when the measuring stick is shrinking.

当法国终于从约翰·劳的梦中醒来时，那些被洗劫一空的人手里拿的都是纸。

When France finally woke up from John Law's dream, the people who are wiped out were the ones holding the paper.

而那些挺过来的人，手里握的是实实在在的东西。

The people who came through held something real.

这就是全部的教训。

And that is the whole lesson.

三百年过去了，什么都没变。

Three hundred years later, but nothing has changed.

所以下次你听到哪个国家又获得了货币互换额度，或者债券市场稳住了，或者经济危机被避免了，我希望你记住你现在知道的这些。

So the next time you hear that another country got a swap line or that the bond market held or that the economic crisis was avoided, I want you to remember what you know now.

危机并没有被避免。

The crisis was not avoided.

它只是被转移了。

It was just moved.

只是被推迟了。

It was postponed.

它被藏起来了，不是藏在债券市场，而是藏在美元里。

It's been hidden, not in the bond market, but in the dollar.

它就藏在你的口袋里。

It's been hidden in your pocket.

钱凭空而来，但账单却要你来付。

The money comes from nowhere, but the bill goes to you.

说句实在话。

Honest question.

我是不是漏掉了什么？

What am I missing?

在评论区告诉我吧。

Let me know in the comments.

如果你喜欢我的内容，我是杰伊·马丁，这里是杰伊·马丁秀。

If you enjoy my content, my name is Jay Martin, and this is the Jay Martin show.

我们每周都会在这个频道发布这样的视频。

We drop videos just like this every week right here on the channel.

如果你喜欢，帮我个忙。

If you enjoy it, do me a favor.

点赞、订阅，但最重要的是，把这个视频分享给朋友。

Click like, hit subscribe, but most importantly, share this video with a friend.

你认识的某个人需要看到它。

Somebody that you know needs to see it.

想了解更多这个话题，看看这些视频中的其中一个，我们下周见。

For more on this topic, check out one of these videos and I will see you next week.