美国债务危机的第一张多米诺骨牌

四月份，阿联酋，这个地球上最富有的国家之一，向美国财政部求助，请求金融上的救命钱。

In April, The United Arab Emirates, one of the wealthiest countries on earth, approached the US Treasury and asked for a financial lifeline.

抛开外交辞令，他们的意思其实就是这个。

Now stripped of the diplomatic language, their message amounted to this.

要么帮我们，要么我们就只能选择让你的债券市场崩盘。

Help us or we will have no choice but to crash your bond market.

两周前，我告诉过你们，美国正在打两场战争，一场你们看得见，另一场你们看不见。

Now two weeks ago, I told you that The United States was fighting two wars, one that you could see and one that you can't.

而上周，这场看不见的战争第一次见了血。

And last week, this invisible war drew its first blood.

请继续听我说。

Stay with me.

在一段名为“两场战争”的视频里，我指出了美国国债市场的一个隐患，这个隐患大多数投资者都没想过，但我现在确信，它将会决定未来十二个月甚至更长时间的市场走向。

In a video called two wars, I laid out a vulnerability in The United States Treasury market that most investors don't think about, but one that I am now convinced will define the next twelve months or more of market activity.

所以，我们快速回顾一下，因为这部分真的非常非常重要。

So let's do a quick recap because this part really, really matters.

美国政府花的钱比收的税多，每年都是如此，差额高达数万亿美元。它通过出售一种叫国债的借条来借这笔钱。

When the United States government spends more money than it collects in taxes, which it does every single year to the tune of trillions of dollars, it borrows the difference, and it does this by selling IOUs called treasury bonds.

十年期国债就是美国政府的一个简单承诺：十年后还你钱，还带利息。

Now a ten year treasury is a simple promise from the US government to pay you back in ten years with interest.

这些债券一直被认为是世界上最安全的投资，因为理论上美国政府总是会还债的。

And these bonds have been considered the safest investment in the world because in theory, the US government will always pay its debts.

所以世界各国，比如日本、英国、中国、韩国，还有几十个国家，持有大约九万四千亿美元的美国借条。

And so countries around the world, Japan, UK, China, South Korea, and dozens of others, hold roughly $9,400,000,000,000 worth of these American IOUs.

他们买这些债券是因为国债安全、流动性好，而且是以美元计价的，而美元是每个国家进行全球交易都需要的货币。

They bought them because treasuries are safe, they're liquid, and they're denominated in US dollars, the currency that every country needs to transact globally.

所以几十年来，这个体系运转得非常好。

So for decades, this system worked beautifully.

美国可以低成本借钱，外国政府可以把储蓄放在一个安全的资产里。

The US could borrow cheaply, and foreign governments could park their savings in a safe asset.

大家都赢了。

Everybody won.

这个体系本来是无懈可击的，直到出现一种情况，就是所有人都在同一时间需要拿回自己的钱。

Now this system is flawless until a situation where everybody needs their cash back at the exact same time.

现在让我问你一个问题。

Now let me ask you a question.

如果你是日本央行的行长，你的国家正面临一场能源危机，工厂、发电厂、航运路线都面临停摆，而你急需美元去公开市场买石油，你会先卖什么？

If you were running Japan's central bank and your country was staring down an energy crisis that threatened to shut down your factories, your power plants, your shipping routes, and you needed dollars immediately to buy oil on the open market, what would you sell first?

我可以告诉你，你会卖掉你流动性最强的美元资产。

Well, I can tell you, you would sell your most liquid dollar asset.

你会卖掉美国国债。

You would sell US Treasuries.

而这正是正在发生的事情。

And that is exactly what's beginning to happen.

很多国家都受到了霍尔木兹海峡关闭的影响，它们的石油或能源供应被切断了。

So many countries have been impacted by the closure of the Strait Of Hormuz, and their oil or energy supply has been cut off.

它们需要筹集现金，在公开市场上购买燃料。

They need to raise cash to buy fuel on the open market.

外国央行在纽约联邦储备银行持有的美国国债已经降到了2012年以来的最低水平。

Foreign central bank holdings of Treasuries of the New York Federal Reserve have dropped to their lowest level since 2012.

那些能源短缺、急需美元的国家正在抛售美国国债，以筹集现金来购买燃料。

Countries short on energy and desperate for dollars are selling American government bonds to raise cash to pay for fuel.

日本持有1.2万亿美元的美国国债。

Japan holds 1,200,000,000,000 in treasuries.

英国持有8950亿美元的美国国债。

The United Kingdom holds 895,000,000,000.

这些可不是小数目。

These are not small positions.

现在问题来了。

Now here is the problem.

当很多人同时抛售同一种资产时，价格就会下跌。

When lots of people sell the same asset at the same time, the price drops.

而当国债价格下跌时，它的利率——也就是华尔街所说的收益率——就会上升。

Now when the price of a treasury bond drops, its interest rate, what Wall Street calls the yield, goes up.

这个收益率就是投资者借钱给美国政府所得到的回报。

That yield is the incentive investors receive to lend money to the US government.

而且因为国债收益率决定了整个经济的借贷成本基准，所以所有东西都会变得更贵。

And because treasury yields set the baseline for borrowing costs across the entire economy, everything gets more expensive.

我们说的是房贷、车贷、企业债务、政府再融资，所有这些。

We're talking about mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, government refinancing, all of it.

现在让我花点时间简单解释一下。

Now let me take a quick minute to break this down simply.

假设你是美国政府。

Put yourself in the position of the US government.

你花的比赚的多，所以你需要借点钱来付账单。

You spend more than you make, so you need to borrow some cash to pay your bills.

比如说我借给你一千美元，你同意付我5%的利息。

So let's say I loan you a thousand dollars and you agree to pay me 5% interest.

每年50美元，持续五年。

$50 a year for five years.

现在我每年都能拿到利息，五年后还能拿回那一千美元。

Now I'm earning annual interest and I'll get my thousand dollars back in five years.

听起来挺划算的。

Sounds like a pretty good deal.

但问题来了。

But here's the problem.

五年期限才过了两年，我突然急需用钱，得马上把钱要回来。

Two years into that five year period, I get a cash call and I need my money back right now.

可问题是，你还有三年才到期，现在不欠我全额。

But the problem is you don't owe me the full amount back for another three years.

当初说好的是五年期贷款。

It was a five year loan.

所以我就去找人接手这笔贷款，找到了第三方，我跟他说，你看。

So I go looking for someone to buy the loan from me, and I find a third party, and I tell them, look.

这个人欠我一千美元。

This person owes me a thousand dollars.

他们每年付我5%的利息。

They're paying me 5% per year.

现在全额还款还有三年才到期，但我今天就需要这笔钱。

Now the full amount is due in three years, but I need the money today.

所以你把我的贷款买下来，那些付款，那5%的利息就归你了。

So buy this loan from me and those payments, that 5% are yours.

三年后，你就能从他们那里拿回你的一千美元。

And in three years, you'll get your thousand dollars back from them.

问题是，那个第三方能看出我有多着急。

The problem is that third party can smell my desperation.

他们知道我今天就需要这笔钱。

They know I need the money today.

所以他们跟我说，行，我买你的贷款，但我不会给你全额。

And so what they tell me is, look, I'll buy the loan, but I'm not gonna give you full value.

那一千美元的贷款，我只付你八百美元。

I'll pay you $800 for that thousand dollar loan.

虽然我没拿到全额，但我今天就能拿到现金，这正是我需要的。

Now I'm not getting full value, but I am getting the cash today, which is what I need.

所以我就接受了这个交易。

So I take the deal.

现在想想刚才发生了什么。

Now think about what just happened.

那个第三方花了800美元买了一张借据，三年后能拿回一千美元，而且期间还有利息。

That third party just paid $800 for a loan note that will pay them a thousand dollars in three years, plus interest along the way.

他的实际回报率，也就是收益率，因为用更少的钱买了同样的现金流，所以上升了。

His effective return, his yield just went up because he paid less for the same stream of payments.

现在想象一下，这种情况如果大规模发生，不是单个贷款人，而是整个国家。

Now imagine this happening at scale, not one lender, but entire countries.

日本、英国、韩国，都急需现金买石油，同时抛售美国国债，都愿意接受低于面值的价格。

Japan, The UK, South Korea, all desperate for cash to buy oil, all selling US Treasury bonds at the same time, all willing to take less than full value.

而且我们说的不是几千美元的小数目。

And we're not talking thousands of dollars.

我们说的是数万亿美元。

We're talking trillions.

那这为什么是个问题呢？

So why is this a problem?

问题在于，美国花的比赚的多，所以它还需要继续借新债。

It's a problem because The United States is still spending more than it earns, so it continues to need new loans.

但如果我能在公开市场上花800美元买到现有的国债，那我为什么还要花1000美元向美国政府买一张全新的呢？

But if I can buy an existing treasury bond on the open market for $800, why would I pay the US government a thousand dollars for a brand new one?

你看。

Look.

我不会，没人会。

I wouldn't, and nobody would.

所以政府被迫在新债券上提供更高的利率，只是为了吸引新的贷款人，这意味着政府的借贷成本在它最负担不起的时候反而上升了。

So the government is forced to offer higher interest rates on its new bonds just to attract new lenders, which means the cost of borrowing goes up for the government itself at exactly the moment when it can least afford it.

而且，由于国债收益率几乎决定了经济中所有利率的基准，突然之间，房贷、车贷、企业债，所有东西一下子都变得更贵了，这就是困境所在。

And because treasury yields set the baseline for nearly every interest rate in the economy, suddenly mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, everything gets more expensive all at once, and this is the predicament.

美国需要提供更高的利率来激励其他国家借钱给它。

The United States needs to offer higher interest rates to incentivize other countries to lend it money.

但矛盾的是，更高的利率会拖垮自己的经济。

But paradoxically, higher interest rates will break its own economy.

那为什么今天这一切都很重要呢？

So why does this all matter today?

四月底，阿联酋联系了美国财政部，请求战时金融援助。

In late April, The United Arab Emirates approached the US Treasury and asked for a wartime financial lifeline.

阿联酋是我们刚才提到的外国国债持有者之一。

The UAE is one of the foreign holders of treasuries that we just spoke about.

现在霍尔木兹海峡实际上已经关闭了大约十二周。

Now the Strait Of Hormuz has been effectively closed for about twelve weeks.

这意味着阿联酋不能像以前那样卖石油了，而且他们还有账单要付。

That means The UAE cannot sell oil like it used to, and they have bills to pay.

但问题是这样的。

But here's the thing.

阿联酋是一个非常富有的国家，所以从传统意义上说，它并没有缺钱。

The UAE is a fabulously wealthy country, so it has not run out of money in the conventional sense.

它仅持有的美国国债就大约有956亿美元。

It holds roughly $95,600,000,000 in US Treasury bonds alone.

它拥有大约2700亿美元的外汇储备，而且通过其主权财富基金还控制着数万亿美元。

It has approximately 270,000,000,000 in foreign exchange reserves, and it controls trillions more through its sovereign wealth fund.

所以阿联酋远没有破产，但它的现金流已经中断了。

So The UAE is far from broke, but its cash flow has stopped.

当现金流中断时，你就会动用储蓄。

And when your cash flow stops, you dip into your savings.

但如果阿联酋动用了储蓄，也就是出售其美国资产如国债来筹集所需现金，那就意味着在市场已经紧张的时候，向公开市场抛售数百亿美元的美国国债。

But if The UAE had dipped into its savings, meaning sold its US assets like Treasuries to raise the cash it needed, that would have meant unloading tens of billions of dollars of US Treasuries onto the open market during an already stressed moment.

这些债券的价格就会下跌。

The price of those bonds would have dropped.

十年期国债的收益率就会攀升，正是我们刚才描述的那种螺旋式上升，而阿联酋就会成为引发这一切的国家。

The yield on the ten year Treasury would have climbed the exact spiral we just described, and The UAE would have been the country that started it.

所以，他们换了一种做法。

So instead, they did something different.

他们向华盛顿提出了一个方案。

They approached Washington with a proposal.

他们实际上是在说，这场战争不是我们挑起的。

They said effectively, we did not ask for this war.

我们是被迫卷入的。

We were dragged into it.

如果我们现金紧张，而你们又不帮忙，那我们就只能自己筹钱了，你们应该清楚这对你们的债券市场意味着什么。

If we run short on cash and you don't help us, we'll have no choice but to raise it ourselves, and you know what that means for your bond market.

咱们还是避免这种情况吧。

Let's avoid this.

所以，阿联酋申请了一笔短期贷款，也就是所谓的货币互换额度，这是一种紧急信贷安排，允许美联储直接向外国央行提供美元贷款。

So The UAE asked for a short term loan known as a currency swap line, an emergency credit facility that allows the US Federal Reserve to lend dollars directly to a foreign central bank.

这并不是在救助阿联酋。

This is not a bailout of The UAE.

我觉得这其实是在救国债市场。

I look at it as a bailout of the Treasury market.

让我花一分钟解释一下，因为接下来几个月大家都会讨论货币互换协议，但真正懂的人很少。

Let me take a minute to break this down because everybody is going to be talking about swap lines in the months ahead, and very few people actually understand them.

美联储同意向外国央行借出美元。

The US Federal Reserve agrees to lend dollars to a foreign central bank.

外国央行用自己的货币作为抵押，锁定一个固定汇率。

The foreign central bank pledges its own currency as collateral locked at a fixed exchange rate.

当互换到期，也就是贷款到期时，外国央行要连本带利还美元，而且到期时的汇率和开始时的汇率是一样的，不管期间两种货币怎么波动。

Now when the swap matures, meaning the loan becomes due, the foreign central bank pays back the dollars with interest, and the exchange rate at maturity is the same as the rate at the start regardless of how the two currencies have moved in between.

美国在2008年和2020年提供的所有互换协议或紧急信贷安排，基本上都还清了。

Now every swap line or emergency credit facility that The United States has offered in 2008, in 2020, they've all been repaid, sort of.

这里就开始有点争议了。

And this is where it gets a bit controversial.

因为只要他们还清了，从技术上讲就不算救助。

Because as long as they're repaid, they are not technically a bailout.

但我用“差不多”这个词，是因为在2013年，美联储悄悄地把五个国家的货币互换协议从临时改成了永久。

But I use the term sort of because in 2013, the Federal Reserve quietly changed the terms on swap lines with five countries from temporary to permanent.

我不太确定一笔不用还的贷款和一笔永远不会到期的贷款之间有什么实质区别，但这点就留给你自己判断吧。

Now I'm not sure there's a meaningful difference between a loan that doesn't get paid back and a loan that doesn't mature, But I'll leave that part with you to decide.

不过我有一个预测。

I do have a prediction.

接下来一年里，货币互换计划会大幅扩张。

Over the next year, the swap line program is going to expand dramatically.

随之而来的是，美国在美元危机中承诺负责的常备国家名单也会扩大。

And with it, the standing roster of countries The United States has accepted responsibility for during a dollar crisis will expand too.

所以如果我说得对，会有两件事发生。

So if I'm right, two things will happen.

第一，美国认为有资格获得货币互换的国家名单会变长。

First, the list of countries that The United States deems eligible for swap lines will grow.

它会超出美国的主要盟友，比如欧洲央行、日本央行、英国央行、加拿大央行、瑞士央行，开始把更多可靠性较低、货币稳定性差得多的国家也纳入进来。

It will expand beyond key US allies, like the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Swiss National Bank, and will begin to include a much wider net of less reliable partners with much less stable currencies.

随着资格标准的降低，这些贷款的风险也会增加。

And as the eligibility criteria drops, the fragility of these loans will go up.

其次，像美国在2013年悄悄宣布的那样，从临时转为永久的互换额度数量也会增加。

Now second, the number of swap lines that shift from temporary to permanent, like the quiet announcement The United States made in 2013, will also grow.

在那种环境下，互换额度实际上根本不会被偿还。

And in that environment, swap lines don't get repaid in any meaningful sense.

它们只是被不断展期。

They just get rolled over.

美联储延长期限，借款方则通过借新还旧来偿还旧债。

The Fed extends the maturity, and the borrower draws a new swap to repay the old one.

每笔交易在账面上都显示为已偿还，但总余额从未真正下降。

Each transaction shows as repaid on the books, but the aggregate balance never really goes down.

巧合的是，华尔街对此有一个专门的称呼。

Coincidentally, Wall Street has a name for this.

他们称之为“修改、展期、假装”。

They call it the amend, extend, and pretend.

你修改贷款条款，把还款期限往后拖，假装一切都很正常。

You amend the terms of the loan to extend the payment deadline to pretend that everything is just fine.

现在，这个预测正在变成现实的证据会很简单。

Now the evidence that this prediction is materializing will be simple.

首先，阿联酋会得到他们的货币互换额度批准，然后接下来科威特也会得到。

First, The UAE will get their swap line approved, and then Kuwait is going to get one next.

为什么是科威特？

Why Kuwait?

因为石油收入大约占科威特政府预算的90%。

Because oil revenues fund roughly 90% of Kuwait's government budget.

科威特在2026年4月出口了零桶石油。

Kuwait exported zero barrels of oil in April 2026.

整个月都是零。

Zero the entire month.

这三十多年来还是头一回。

That hasn't happened in over thirty years.

那这为什么重要呢？

Now why does this matter?

科威特持有660亿美元的美国国债。

Kuwait has $66,000,000,000 in US Treasuries.

所以他们要么会卖掉这些国债，这就会引发我们刚才谈到的债务螺旋，要么就会效仿阿联酋，向华盛顿申请自己的货币互换额度，从而扩大这些紧急信贷设施的适用国家范围。

So they will either sell their Treasuries, which would be the trigger to cause the debt spiral that we just talked about, or they will follow The UAE's lead and ask Washington for a swap line of their own, growing the pool of eligible countries for these emergency credit facilities.

那我先回答一个问题，因为接下来几周这肯定会成为头条新闻。

So let me address one question because this is definitely going to come up in headlines over the next few weeks.

这个问题就是，货币互换额度算不算救助？

And the question is, is a swap line a bailout?

批评美国政府的人会说，算。

Now critics of the US administration would say, yes.

这绝对是救助。

It's absolutely a bailout.

这个国家资金紧张，美国在帮他们解围。

The country is strapped for cash, and The US is bailing them out.

但看好美国的人会说，不是。

But US bulls would say, no.

绝对不是。

Absolutely not.

它们是短期的紧急融资工具。

They're short term emergency facilities.

而且到目前为止，这些资金都已经偿还了。

And to date, they've all been paid back.

这不是救助。

It's not a bailout.

但我要告诉你，这两方其实都对，原因在于他们把救助想反了。

But I would tell you that both of those parties are simultaneously right, and the reason is because they're thinking about the bailout backwards.

让我来解释一下。

Let me explain.

互换额度对借款方来说看起来像救助，因为借款方拿到了美元。

A swap line can look like a bailout for the borrower because the borrower receives the dollars.

这看起来就是典型的救助场景。

That's typical of a bailout scenario.

但实际上，在这种情况下，互换额度或紧急贷款的真正受益者是贷方，而不是借方。

But in this case, the real beneficiary of the swap line or the emergency loan is the lender, not the borrower.

那为什么会这样呢？

Now why is that the case?

我觉得是因为，如果不这样做，会有什么后果？

I'd say because what's the alternative?

后果就是，像科威特、阿联酋这样美元短缺的国家，被迫出售它们手中流动性最强的美元资产，也就是美国国债，而且还得在下跌的市场中抛售。

The alternative is that a dollar starved country like Kuwait, like The UAE, is forced to sell their most liquid dollar asset that they own being US Treasuries, and they have to sell that into a falling market.

这样一来，国债价格下跌，收益率上升，华盛顿的借贷成本攀升，然后房贷、车贷、企业债务和政府再融资的成本全都同时上涨。

So treasury prices drop, yields rise, Washington's borrowing costs climb, and then mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, and government refinancing all get more expensive all at once.

这就是债务螺旋。

And that is the debt spiral.

所以，当美联储开放互换额度时，它不仅仅是在帮助外国央行。

So when the Fed opens a swap line, it is not merely helping out a foreign central bank.

这是为了防止那个外国央行被迫抛售美国国债。

It is preventing that foreign central bank from becoming a forced seller of US Government debt.

所以这不是对阿联酋的救助。

So it's not a bailout for The UAE.

这是对美国国债市场的救助。

It's a bailout for the US Treasury market.

如果霍尔木兹海峡继续关闭，问题不是是否会有更多国家需要美元，因为肯定会有。

And if the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed, the question is not whether more countries will need dollars, because they will.

问题在于华盛顿是选择让他们抛售国债来筹集美元，还是先悄悄借给他们美元。

The question is whether Washington chooses to let them sell treasuries to raise those dollars or quietly lends them the dollars first.

这就是为什么阿联酋如此重要。

And that is why The UAE matters so much.

这不是故事的结局。

It is not the end of the story.

这是第一块多米诺骨牌。

It is the first domino.

时间会证明我是否正确。

Time will tell if I'm right.

如果你喜欢我在《杰伊·马丁秀》上的内容，帮我个忙。

Now if you enjoy my content here on The Jay Martin Show, do me a favor.

点个订阅。

Hit subscribe.

点个赞。

Hit like.

但最重要的是，把这个视频分享给朋友。

But most importantly, share this video with a friend.

这是让我们触达更多人的最好方式。

That is the best way we can reach more people.

我每周都会在这里发布内容。

I publish here every single week.

希望你喜欢这个视频。

I hope you enjoyed this video.

我们下周六见。

I will see you next Saturday.