美国救助日本的真相

七月的最后一天，美国做了一件28年来从未做过的事。

On the last day of July, The United States did something that it had not done in twenty eight years.

它走进了外汇市场，花了数十亿美元，不是为了保卫美元——那可能还算正常——而是为了救别人。

It walked into the currency market, and it spent billions of dollars not to defend the US dollar, which might have been normal, but to rescue somebody else.

你看，日本的货币日元已经连续下跌了好几个月，一路跌到了四十年来的最低点。

You see, Japan's currency, the yen, had been falling for months, all the way to its weakest point in forty years.

所以美国和日本政府联手介入，花了数百亿美元买入日元，因为大量买入某种货币会推高它的价格。

So the American and Japanese governments stepped in together and spent tens of billions of dollars buying yen because buying something in massive amounts pushes its price back up.

而且他们表示，准备投入更多资金。

And they've stated they are ready to spend a lot more.

现在你可能会想把这条新闻归类为无关紧要的国际新闻，但别这么做，因为华盛顿上周真正保护的，是你股票、你储蓄、你拥有的每一个市场背后的东西。

Now you might be tempted to file that under irrelevant foreign news, but don't do that because what Washington was actually protecting last week sits underneath your stocks, your savings, every market that you own.

所以，问那个关键的问题：为什么？

So ask the important question, why?

为什么美国——这个印着全世界运转所依赖的货币的国家，这个国内已经在对抗通胀、已经背负着39.8万亿美元债务、并且每年还要再增加2万亿美元债务的国家——会花数百亿美元去支撑别人的货币？

Why would The United States, the country that prints the money the entire world runs on, a country already battling inflation at home, already drowning in $39,800,000,000,000 of debt and adding another $2,000,000,000,000 every single year, spend tens of billions of dollars holding up somebody else's money.

现在白宫给出了一个答案。

Now the White House offered an answer.

他们说是友谊。

They said it was friendship.

引用唐纳德·特朗普总统的话。

And to quote president Donald Trump.

我们永远支持日本。

We're always there for Japan.

日本对我们一直很好，当然，除了珍珠港事件。

Japan's been very good to us with the exception, of course, of Pearl Harbor.

他在空军一号上对记者说。

He told reporters aboard Air Force One.

他的财政部长斯科特·贝森更进一步，承诺不惜一切代价提供帮助，并保证美国将毫不犹豫地参与进一步的联合干预。

His treasury secretary, Scott Besson, went further pledging to do whatever it takes to help and promising that America will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.

那么这一切意味着什么，为什么重要呢？

So what does that all mean and why does it matter?

你看，政府不会花几百亿美元去买所谓的友谊。

Look, governments don't spend tens of billions of dollars on friendship.

这纯粹是扯淡。

That's a fallacy.

财政部长也不会为了那些根本让他们睡不着觉的事说‘不惜一切代价’。

And Treasury Secretaries don't say whatever it takes about things that don't keep them up at night.

背后肯定另有隐情，华盛顿认定有些东西必须保护，不管代价有多大。

Something else was at stake, something Washington decided it had to protect no matter what it cost.

这期视频要讲的，就是那个“某件事”到底是什么。

This video is about what that something is.

答案要从一个几乎没人知道的事实说起：日本其实是美国的债主。

The answer starts with a fact that most people have never heard, and that fact is that Japan is America's banker.

而最后，华盛顿会在众目睽睽之下，无意中把这套系统背后的人最害怕的东西暴露给你——而且他们嘴上说的，并不是真相。

And it ends with Washington accidentally showing you in public, in plain sight, the one thing people running the system are most afraid of, and it's not what they say it is.

咱们先从一个让大多数人都会卡壳的谜题开始。

Let's start with a puzzle that trips almost everybody up.

日本政府的债务相对于其经济规模，比地球上任何主要国家都多，大约是日本一年总产出的230%。

Japan's government owes more money compared to the size of its economy than any major country on Earth, about 230% of everything Japan produces in a year.

相比之下，美国政府的债务大约是它经济规模的125%。

By comparison, America's government debt is about a 125% of its economy.

而美国人对此已经感到担忧，这也是理所当然的。

And Americans are already alarmed about that as they should be.

然而，连续三十四年，日本虽然债务占GDP比例更高，却也是全球最大的贷款国。

And yet, for thirty four straight years, Japan with the larger debt to GDP was also the largest lender to the world.

全世界欠钱最多的国家。

The country the rest of the planet owed the most money to.

那么，地球上负债最重的国家怎么可能是最大的债主呢？

So how can the most indebted country on earth also be its biggest lender?

这两件事怎么可能同时成立？

How can both of those things be true?

答案就是，日本政府和日本人民是两个分开的钱包。

And the answer is that the government of Japan and its people are two separate wallets.

日本人是非常自律的储蓄者。

The Japanese people are some of the most disciplined savers alive.

几十年来，向全球出口汽车、电子产品和机械等商品，积累了庞大的个人和企业储蓄。

Decades of selling products like cars, electronics, and machinery to the world built a mountain of personal and corporate savings.

这笔巨额储蓄足以同时承担两项任务。

And that mountain was big enough to do two jobs at once.

既能资助日本政府的大部分借款需求，还能剩下足够的资金借给全世界。

Fund most of what the Japanese government borrows and still leave enough left over to lend to the rest of the world.

所以，日本那些手握大量资金的养老金基金、保险公司和银行就开始到海外去投资。

So Japan's pension funds, insurers, and banks sitting on piles of capital went shopping abroad.

他们最喜欢买的，就是美国政府的欠条，也就是国债。

And their favorite thing to buy was the IOU of the United States government, the Treasury bond.

如今，日本持有的美国债务大约有一万一千亿美元。

Today, Japan holds about $1,100,000,000,000 of America's debt.

这比英国持有的还要多。

That's more than Britain.

这比中国还多。

That's more than China.

比世界上任何其他国家都多。

It's more than any other country on Earth.

所以，好好想想这意味着什么。

So sit with exactly what that means.

美国政府每年的支出都超过税收收入。

The American government spends more than it collects in taxes every single year.

而差额靠借钱来弥补。

And it covers that difference by borrowing.

日本是弥补这个差额的最大外国债主。

Japan is the biggest foreign lender covering that difference.

所以，日本就是美国的银行家，这就引出了整个故事的核心问题：为什么银行家自己的货币会崩溃？

Therefore, Japan is America's banker, which sets up the question that this whole story turns on, why was the banker's own currency collapsing?

为什么美国需要出手干预？

Why did America need to intervene?

所以情况就是这样。

So here it is.

日本几乎不自己生产能源。

Japan produces almost no energy of its own.

它每天只开采大约10万桶石油，但消耗量却高达300万桶。

It pumps about a 100,000 barrels of oil a day, but it burns about 3,000,000.

日本使用的石油中，约有97%是通过海运进口的。

Roughly 97% of the oil Japan uses arrives on a ship.

大部分石油都经过霍尔木兹海峡运输。

Most of it comes through the Strait Of Hormuz.

而且这些石油是以美元计价和支付的，而不是日元。

And that oil is priced in and paid for in US dollars, not Japanese yen.

现在来看看这个循环是如何闭环的。

Now watch this loop come together and close.

当油价上涨时——今年中东的战争让油价变得非常高——日本就需要更多的美元来购买石油。

When oil gets more expensive, and this year's war in The Middle East has made it very expensive, Japan needs more dollars to buy it.

为了拿到美元，日本必须卖出日元。

To get dollars, Japan must sell yen.

但卖出日元会压低日元的价格，因为卖家比买家多，价格总是会下跌。

But selling yen pushes the yen's price down because more sellers than buyers always pushes a price down.

而日元贬值会让下一船石油在日元计价下更贵，这迫使日本卖出更多日元来购买所需的美元。

And cheaper yen makes the next tanker of oil cost even more in yen terms, which forces Japan to sell even more yen to buy the dollars that it needs.

就这样循环往复，日元越弱，石油账单越大。

Around and around, a weaker yen, bigger oil bill.

石油账单越大，卖出的日元越多。

Bigger oil bill, more yen sold.

卖出的日元越多，日元越弱，这个循环自我强化。

More yen sold, weaker yen, the loop feeds on itself.

到7月底，1美元需要164日元才能买到。

By late July, it took 164 yen to buy 1 US dollar.

而买一桶石油需要90美元。

And it took $90 to buy one barrel of oil.

日本每天需要300万桶石油。

And Japan needed 3,000,000 barrels every single day.

我们来算一下这笔账。

So do the multiplication.

这意味着每天的石油开销超过2.5亿美元，一年下来接近1000亿美元。

And that is an oil bill of more than a $250,000,000 a day close to a $100,000,000,000 per year.

因为这笔钱是用美元支付的，所以汇率就成了关键因素。

And because that bill is paid in dollars, the exchange rate is everything.

看看这微小的变动会带来什么影响。

Watch what one tiny slip does.

假设日元对美元汇率从164跌到165，只降了一个点。

Say the yen drops by a single point from 164 yen to a 165 per dollar.

但石油本身的情况并没有改变。

Nothing about the oil changed.

桶数没变，油轮没变，日本每天300万桶的需求量也没变。

Same barrels, same tankers, same 3,000,000 barrels in demand in Japan per day.

但每一桶油现在用日元来算都更贵了。

But every one of those barrels now costs more in yen.

那一个点的下滑，每年给这个国家的石油账单增加了大约一千亿日元。

That one point slip just added roughly 100,000,000,000 yen to the country's yearly oil bill.

一千一百亿日元。

$1.1100000000000 yen.

现在，关键来了。

Now, is the thing.

日本明天就能停止这个循环。

Japan could stop this loop tomorrow.

他们确实有这个工具。

They do have the tool.

这个工具是存在的，而且每个国家都有。

The tool exists and every single country has it.

它叫做利率。

It's called the interest rate.

因为利率的真正含义是这样的。

Because here's what an interest rate really is.

它是你持有该国货币时获得的回报。

It's the reward that you earn for keeping your savings in a country's money.

如果日本给储户5%的利息来持有日元，那么全世界的资金都会涌入以获取这份回报。

If Japan paid savers 5% to hold yen, then money from all over the world would pour in to collect that reward.

所有这些购买行为会把日元的汇率推高，因为买入会推动价格上涨。

And all of that buying would push the yen's price back up because buying pushes the price up.

这就是一个国家保卫自己货币的方式。

That is how a country defends its currency.

你通过提高收益来鼓励人们持有它。

You pay people more to hold it.

现在看看日本实际支付的利率，只有1%。

Now, look at what Japan actually pays, 1%.

与此同时，日本的物价上涨速度已经超过了1%。

Meanwhile, prices in Japan are rising faster than 1%.

所以，持有日元的储户从利息中赚到的，还不如在超市里亏掉的多。

So, a saver holding yen earns less from the reward than he loses at the grocery store.

他持有的钱每年都在缩水，而世界上没有人会急着去持有不断缩水的货币。

His money shrinks a little every year that he holds it, and nobody on earth rushes to hold money that leaks.

所以，让我问你一个问题。

So, let me ask you a question.

为什么日本不直接提高利息呢？

Why doesn't Japan just raise the reward?

对吧？

Right?

提高利率，人们就会蜂拥而至买入日元，推高价格，这样就能奏效。

Raise the interest rate and people would come flooding in to buy yen, increase the price, it would work.

但他们做不到，因为别忘了那个数字——债务占GDP的230%，是全球负债最重的国家。

Well, they can't because remember that that number, 230% debt to GDP, the most indebted country in the world.

而这些钱是谁欠的呢？

And who owes that money?

是，日本政府欠的。

Well, the government of Japan does.

而且别忘了，利率这东西是双刃剑。

And remember, an interest rate, it cuts both ways.

对，它既是储户能拿到的收益，也是借款人要付的成本。

Yes, it's the reward that savers earn, but it's also the price that borrowers pay.

一旦加息，政府在那笔巨额债务上的利息支出就会暴涨。

If you raise it, the government's payments on that mountain of debt explode.

它根本负担不起高利率下的自身债务。

It can't afford its own debt at higher rates.

所以，日本没法提高持有日元的收益，否则会让日元最大的借款人——也就是日本政府自己——破产。

So Japan can't raise the reward for holding yen without bankrupting the biggest borrower of yen, which happens to be its own government.

更糟的是，日本央行还在继续印钞，让这笔债务雪球越滚越大。

And worse still, the Bank of Japan is still creating money and adding to that pile.

就在今天，它每个月都要凭空印出2.5万亿日元的新钱，用来购买政府债券，从而压低政府的借贷成本。

Right now, today, it prints 2,500,000,000,000 yen of new money every single month to buy its own government bonds and keep the government's borrowing costs down.

对吧？

Right?

人为制造的对债券的需求把利率压低了。

Artificial demand for bonds keeps the interest rate down.

现在，请同时记住这两点。

Now hold both of those facts in your head at once.

日元已经泛滥成灾了。

The yen is drowning.

而且日本央行每个月都在往这个池子里注入更多的日元。

And Japan's own central bank is pouring more yen into the pool every month.

因为另一个选择，也就是让政府的借贷成本上升，是一道它翻不过去的墙。

Because the alternative, letting the government's borrowing costs rise, is a wall that it cannot climb.

货币贬值和借贷成本同时上升，这正是失去债权人信心的国家所特有的标志。

A falling currency and rising borrowing costs at the same time, that is the signature of a country losing the confidence of its lenders.

你在那些脆弱的新兴市场里就能看到这种情况。

That's what you see to fragile emerging markets.

但现在这种情况开始出现在世界第三大经济体身上。

But it's now beginning to emerge in the third largest economy in the world.

而到这里，故事就不再只是关于日本了，而是关于它为什么对你重要。

And this is where the story stops being about Japan and why it matters for you.

一个国家要保卫自己的货币，就需要弹药。

A country defending its currency needs ammunition.

它必须买入日元。

It must buy yen.

而要买入日元，它就必须卖出一些东西。

And to buy yen, it must sell something.

日本确实有东西可以卖。

Now Japan does have something to sell.

记住这一点，它是美国债务的最大持有者。

Remember this, it's the biggest holder of American debt.

日本手里握着一堆再明显不过的弹药。

Japan's sitting on the most obvious pile of ammunition imaginable.

一万一千亿美元的美国国债。

$1,100,000,000,000 of US Treasury bonds.

卖掉债券，拿到美元，再买入日元，以此来拯救本国货币。

Sell the bonds, get the dollars, buy the yen, save the currency.

这就是标准的操作手法。

That is the standard play.

任何教科书里都会推荐这么做。

Any textbook would prescribe it.

但美国可不会坐视不管。

But America can't allow that.

要弄明白这一点，你只需要懂一个简单的债券数学原理。

To see why, you need one piece of bond math.

这个原理简单到在餐巾纸上就能算清楚。

And it's simple enough to do on the back of a napkin.

国债会支付固定的利息金额。

A treasury bond pays a fixed amount of interest.

如果大量抛售导致债券价格下跌，那么同样的固定支付在新的更低价格中所占的比例就会变大。

If heavy selling knocks the bond's price down, that same fixed payment becomes a bigger percentage of the new lower price.

所以每个新买家都会要求并得到更高的利率。

So every new buyer demands and gets a higher interest rate.

债券价格下跌就意味着利率上升。

Falling bond prices are rising interest rates.

这不是什么理论。

That's not a theory.

这是基本的算术。

It's basic arithmetic.

所以，如果日本开始大规模抛售美国国债，

So if Japan starts dumping U.

美国

S.

国债，规模达到数千亿美元，那么美国债券的价格就会下跌，美国政府为新的借款所需支付的利率就会上升。

Treasury bonds by the hundreds of billions, the price of American bonds will fall and the interest rate the American government has to pay for new borrowing goes up.

现在看看这会发生在什么节骨眼上。

Now look at the moment this would land in.

美国的债务刚刚突破了39.8万亿美元。

America's debt just passed $39,800,000,000,000.

光是利息支出每年就大约要1万亿美元。

The interest bill alone is running at roughly $1,000,000,000,000 a year.

这是美国政府最大的单项开支之一。

One of the largest single things that the government spends money on.

而且30年期国债的收益率刚刚突破了5.2%。

And the yield on the thirty year Treasury bond just climbed above 5.2%.

这是美国自2007年以来面临的最高借贷成本。

The highest borrowing cost The United States has faced since 2007.

现在，华盛顿最承受不起的，就是它最大的债主搞大甩卖，把那些债券的价格压下去。

Now the last thing, the very last thing that Washington can afford right now is its biggest lender holding a fire sale and pushing the price of those bonds down.

所以美国面临了一个奇怪的紧急情况。

So America faced a strange emergency.

它的银行家需要现金，而美国承受不起银行家提款的后果，这就解释了华盛顿接下来建造的那台机器。

Its banker needed cash and America could not survive the banker making a withdrawal, which explains the machine that Washington built next.

现在仔细看，因为这台机器会告诉你华盛顿对这种情况的真实想法。

Now watch closely because the machinery tells you everything you need to know about how Washington is actually thinking about this situation.

首先，是联合救援行动本身。

First came the joint rescue itself.

美国

The U.

财政部

S.

与东京联手买入日元。

Treasury buying yen alongside Tokyo.

这是自1998年以来首次采取此类协调行动。

The first coordinated action of its kind since 1998.

但有趣的是，下一波救援资金是如何筹集的。

But the interesting part is how the next wave of rescue money got raised.

美联储里藏着一个鲜为人知的贷款项目，是在2020年那场恐慌期间建立的，大多数人从未听说过。

Tucked away at the Federal Reserve is a little known lending program built during the panic of twenty twenty that most people have never heard of.

它就像是为政府开的当铺。

It works like a pawn shop for governments.

外国把它的美国

A foreign country brings its U.

国债

S.

抵押给美联储，然后带着新印出来的美元离开，这些美元是以它们的国债为抵押借来的。

Treasury bonds, leaves them at the Fed as collateral, and walks out with freshly created dollars lent against their Treasury bonds.

所以不需要出售。

So no sale required.

当贷款还清后，那个国家就能拿回它的国债。

And when the loan is repaid, that country gets its treasury bonds back.

日本刚刚宣布将利用这个项目来为它的货币防御提供资金。

Japan just announced it will use this program to fund its currency defense.

它会把国债带到美联储的窗口，用这些国债借入新的美元，然后把美元换成日元来推高日元汇率。

It will bring its treasury bonds to the Fed's window, borrow new dollars against them, sell those dollars for yen to raise the price of the yen.

而且，这也是关键所在，它永远不会在公开市场上真正出售哪怕一张国债。

And never, and this is the entire point, never actually sell a single treasury bond into the open market.

不过这个计划是有上限的。

Now this program has a limit.

目前规定，任何国家用国债抵押借款的上限是600亿美元。

As stated, no country can borrow more than $60,000,000,000 against its treasuries for now.

美国

The U.

财政部

S.

最近，财政部长在社交媒体上呼吁美联储提高限额。

Treasury Secretary was recently on social media asking the Fed to raise the limit.

我们来看看接下来会发生什么。

So we're going to see what happens.

我有几个猜测。

I have a couple of guesses.

但这就是坦白。

But that's the confession.

华盛顿现在公开地、明明白白地向你们展示了它绝不能容忍的事情。

Washington has now shown you in public, in plain sight, the one thing it cannot afford to let happen.

不过我对这次救援行动有一个问题，我觉得这个问题很重要。

But I do have one question about the rescue, and I think it's an important one.

美联储通过那个窗口，以日本持有的国债组合为抵押向其提供美元贷款时，这些美元是从哪儿来的？

When the Fed lends Japan dollars through that window against its Treasury portfolio as collateral, where do those dollars come from?

简短的回答是，美联储凭空创造出来的。

And the short answer is that the Fed creates them.

这正是中央银行该做的事。

That's what central banks do.

这笔钱是新印出来的。

The money is new.

明白了吗？

Okay?

顺着这个逻辑看。

So follow the circle.

美国创造新的美元，然后交给日本。

America creates new dollars, hands them to Japan.

日本把这些美元卖掉，换成日元，以此来推高日元的价格。

Japan sells those dollars to buy yen to strengthen the price of the yen.

现在大家注意看，这次救援措施原本是要达成什么目标。

Now keep your eye on what the rescue is supposed to do.

它的目的是让日元走强。

It's supposed to make the yen stronger.

但一种货币要真正走强，得靠全球各地的人愿意持有它。

But a currency only gets stronger when people all around the world choose to hold it.

也就是大家都来买。

More buying from everybody.

但你要顺着这笔新美元在日本花出去之后的流向看。

But follow the new dollars after Japan spends them.

它们不会凭空消失，而是流入美国经济，进入一个本来就已经很热的股市。

They don't vanish, they flow into the American economy and a stock market that's already running hot.

新资金会让原本就热的市场更热。

And fresh money makes hot markets hotter.

所以当美国市场成为全球最火爆的投资标的时，全世界的投资者都想做什么呢？

So when American markets are the hottest game on earth, what does every investor in the world want to do?

大家都想把手里的资产，包括日元，全都卖掉，转而投资美国。

They wanna sell whatever they're holding, including yen, and buy American.

所以这次救援行动一边托举日元，另一边却让大家做空日元的诱惑变得前所未有的大。

So the rescue lifts the yen with one hand but simultaneously makes the bet against the yen more tempting than ever.

因为买美资成了全球最火爆的玩法。

Because buy America becomes the hottest game on earth.

还有第二个问题。

There's a second problem.

美联储本来的任务是在国内抑制通胀。

The fed is supposed to be fighting inflation at home.

对付通胀的办法是让钱变难借，而不是更容易借。

And you fight inflation by making money harder to get, not easier.

在美联储刚表态准备收紧货币政策的时候，却凭空创造出几十亿新美元，这完全是背道而驰。

Creating billions of new dollars is the opposite at the exact moment the fed is telling everyone it stands ready to tighten monetary policy.

这种情况下，等于是在用药方去抵消药效。

In this case, the medicine is actually fighting the cure.

但要注意这次救援没做到的事。

But notice what the rescue did not do.

它完全没有改变日元最初下跌的任何原因。

It did not change a single one of the reasons that the yen was falling in the first place.

日本的债务占GDP比例仍然高达230%。

Japan still owes 230% debt to GDP.

它依然进口97%的石油，而且央行每月仍在增发25万亿日元，一边往全球注入更多日元，另一边救援措施却在试图吸收日元。

It still imports 97% of its oil, and its central bank is still creating 2,500,000,000,000 new yen every month, pouring more yen into the world, while the rescue tries to soak yen up.

没人指望这种效果能持久，因为像这样的救助只是争取点时间而已。

Nobody involved expects this effect to last because a rescue like this, it just buys time.

它并没有真正解决任何问题。

It doesn't actually fix anything.

船底被船长钻了新洞，你还在那儿舀水，这有什么用呢？

You can't bail water out of a boat while the captain drills new holes in the bottom.

世界上没有任何一条信贷额度能改变这个事实。

No line of credit in the world would change that.

所以火还在烧，这就引出了你可能从视频一开始就在想的问题。

So the fire's still burning, which brings us to the question that you might have been asking since the first minute of this video.

东京的货币危机跟你的投资组合有什么关系呢？

What does a currency crisis in Tokyo have to do with your investment portfolio?

一句话回答：日元套利交易。

And the answer in one phrase, the yen carry trade.

金融圈里几乎人人都听说过它。

Almost everybody in finance has heard of it.

真正能讲清楚的人其实不多。

Very few people can actually explain it.

我用三步就能把这件事说透。

Here's the whole thing in three simple steps.

第一步，借地球上利息最低的货币。

Step one, borrow in the cheapest currency on earth.

过去三十年里，这个货币就是日元，因为日本借钱几乎不收什么利息。

For thirty years, that was the yen because Japan charged almost nothing to borrow it.

第二步，把借来的日元换成美元。

Step two, convert the borrowed yen into dollars.

第三步，用这些美元去买那些收益高于贷款成本的东西。

And step three, use those dollars to buy things that pay more than the loan cost you.

那时候几乎什么都行。

And that was pretty much anything.

美国国债、科技股、房地产，任何有回报的资产都行。

American Treasury bonds, tech stocks, real estate, anything with a return.

你赚的和付的之间的差额就是你的利润。

The gap between what you earn and what you pay is your profit.

这就像从亲戚那里借了不要利息的钱，然后以5%的利息借给朋友。

It's like borrowing money from a relative who charges you no interest and lending it out to a friend at 5%.

这是世界上最容易赚的钱。

It's the easiest money in the world.

所以全世界的投资者都尽可能多地借现金来做这件事。

So investors all over the world did it with as much borrowed cash as they could get their hands on.

三十年来，日元套利交易累积到了数万亿美元。

Stacked up over thirty years, the yen carry trade is in the trillions of dollars.

便宜的日本资金悄悄流入全球几乎每个市场，支撑着它们。

Cheap Japanese money quietly pouring into nearly every market on the planet, helping hold them all up.

但这个交易有一个规则，日元必须保持便宜。

But that trade has one rule, the yen must stay cheap.

一旦日本利率上升，那笔免费贷款就开始变成真金白银的成本，所有人都会同时急着平仓。

The day Japanese rates rise, that free loan starts costing real money, and everybody rushes to unwind it all at once.

他们抛售股票，卖出债券，然后买回日元来偿还债务。

They sell the stocks, they sell the bonds, and they buy back the yen to repay the debt.

我们现在很清楚那会是什么样子，因为世界在2024年8月就已经提前体验过了。

Now, we know exactly what that looks like because the world got a preview in August 2024.

日本银行将利率上调了区区0.25个百分点，这是它能做出的最小幅度调整。

The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate by a single quarter of 1%, the smallest move it could make.

紧接着，日本股市一天之内暴跌12.4%，创下自1987年以来最糟糕的一天。

And then, Japan's stock market fell 12.4% in one day, its worst day since 1987.

短短几个小时，标普500指数就迎来了大约两年来最糟糕的一天。

And within hours, the S and P 500 had its worst day in about two years.

东京市场只是轻轻震了一下，这股冲击波却在一天之内传遍了全球。

One small tap in Tokyo, and the tremor circled the globe in an afternoon.

接下来我们要聊到一个数字，它能让你真切感受到这件事有多重要。

Now, there's a number here that we're gonna talk about next, and this tells you how important the situation really is.

官方数据显示，有多少交易员在押注日元会继续贬值。

There's official data that tracks how many traders are betting that the yen will keep falling.

做这种投机的方法很简单。

And the way you make that bet is simple.

你今天先借来日元卖掉，承诺以后买回来，希望到时候价格更低，这样就能把差价装进口袋。

You sell your borrowed yen today, promising to buy it back later, hopefully cheaper than you paid, and you pocket the difference.

这就叫做空。

That's called shorting.

目前这类投机押注的数量已经创下了历史新高。

And those bets currently sit at the highest level ever recorded.

这数据至少能追溯到2010年，而且远远高于其他任何时期。

Far and away the highest in data going back to at least 2010.

那为什么这事这么重要呢？

Now, why does that matter?

因为这种押注只有一条退路。

Because that bet has only one way out.

最终，这些交易者不得不买回日元。

Eventually, those traders have to buy the yen back.

希望到时候能更便宜。

Hopefully, for then cheaper.

但如果日元因为救援、加息或任何意外而突然飙升，所有这些创纪录的押注会在同一时刻开始亏损。

But if the yen ever snaps upward from a rescue or a rate rise or any surprise, Every one of those record bets starts losing money at the same moment.

每个持有这些押注的交易员都会同时冲向出口。

And every trader holding one runs for the exit at the same time.

他们会卖掉手头的一切，拿到现金，买回日元，然后解除交易。

They'll sell whatever they own, get the cash, buy back the yen, and undo the trade.

股票、债券、黄金、加密货币，全部同时被抛售。

Stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, all sold at once.

不是因为那些资产本身有问题，而是因为数百万借日元的押注在恐慌中被平仓。

Not because anything is wrong with those assets, but because millions of borrowed yen bets are being unwound in a panic.

这也是华盛顿如此谨慎对待日本的又一个原因。

And that is one more reason that Washington is handling Japan so carefully.

日元剧烈波动不会只停留在日元本身。

A violent snap in the yen would not stay in the yen.

它会在同一天下午影响到你的账户、我的账户，以及全球每一个市场。

It would land in your account, my accounts, and every market on earth in the same afternoon.

所以，要把这个赌注往两个方向都推演一遍，因为没有第三种可能。

So play that bet forward both ways, because there's no third option.

如果做空的人错了，日元突然升值，那么仅从官方数据中我们能看到的那些明显赌注，就会让市场经历糟糕的一天，但还不至于彻底崩盘。

If the short sellers are wrong, if the yen snaps upward, then the visible bets we can see in the official data alone would be a bad day in the markets, but not an outright disaster.

但日元的突然升值不会只停留在那些做空者身上。

But a snap in the yen would not stop with those short sellers.

它会开始牵动整个套利交易。

It would start pulling on the whole carry trade.

记住这一点。

Remember that.

那些悄无声息支撑着全球市场的巨额日元贷款。

The trillions in quiet yen loans holding up markets everywhere.

而那，就是2024年8月那场情景的全尺寸版本。

And that is the August 2024 scenario at full size.

但如果空头们是对的，日元持续下跌，那么日本的石油进口账单就会不断膨胀。

But if the short sellers are right, if the yen keeps falling, then Japan's oil bill keeps growing.

日本会越发绝望，救助规模也必须大幅扩大。

Japan gets more desperate and the rescue has to get a lot bigger.

这意味着要创造更多的新美元，美联储的贴现窗口借款额度也势必提高。

More freshly created dollars and inevitably, a higher borrowing limit at the Fed's window.

财政部长已经明确要求了这一点，看起来他似乎早就预料到了这种情况。

And the Treasury Secretary has already asked for exactly that, as if that's what he's anticipating.

所以两扇门，正面和反面，全球各类资产都会突然面临抛售压力。

So two doors, heads and asset classes all over the world receive a sudden surge in selling pressure.

反面就是美国继续印钞，好让银行家们站稳脚跟。

Tails, America creates even more money to keep its banker standing.

这里没有第三条路可选。

There's no third door here.

如果你想从美国国债的角度了解后续走向，可以看看日本，因为美国在捍卫货币上采取的每一步，日本都先走了一步。

And if you want to know where this goes from a US Treasury standpoint, you can stay with Japan because every step America has taken to defend their currency, Japan took first.

我来解释一下。

Let me explain.

日本写下的这套操作手册，现在整个西方世界都在照着做。

Japan wrote the playbook that the whole Western world now runs.

它在1999年就把利率降到了零，比美联储早了将近十年。

It cut interest rates to zero in 1999, nearly a decade before the Federal Reserve did.

2001年它搞出了现代意义上的印钞模式，也就是央行创造货币去买债券，这比美国开始使用量化宽松这个词还早了七年。

It invented modern money printing in 2001, the central bank creating money to buy bonds, seven years before the words quantitative easing entered the American vocabulary.

早在2016年，日本就率先通过行政命令把政府借贷成本给钉死了。

It pioneered pinning government borrowing costs by decree in 2016.

自2008年以来华盛顿动用的所有应急工具，东京都先试了一遍。

Every emergency tool Washington has reached for since 2008 was tested in Tokyo first.

而且日本走上这条路的时候，它可是地球上最强劲的经济体。

And Japan started down that road as the strongest economy on earth.

到了1989年底，它的股市让全世界都眼红。

At the end of 1989, its stock market was the envy of the planet.

当时有说法称，东京皇宫脚下的土地价值比整个加利福尼亚州还要高。

And it was said that the land under Tokyo's imperial palace was worth more than all of California.

但随后泡沫破裂，债务不断累积。

But then the bubble burst, the debt piled up.

这套操作手册用了三十年，最终导致了今天的局面。

And thirty years of that playbook led here.

政府债台高筑，不敢让利率上升；央行印钞停不下来；货币汇率跌至四十年低点，连本国都无力捍卫。

A government too indebted to allow higher rates, a central bank that cannot stop printing, and a currency at a forty year low that its own country cannot defend.

美国正走在同一条路上，用的也是同一套玩法。

America is on that same road with the same playbook.

债务总额高达39.8万亿美元，每年的利息支出超过一万亿，三十年期借贷成本也达到了19年来的高点。美国之所以还没崩盘，是因为它有一些日本所不具备的缓冲空间。

$39,800,000,000,000 of debts, an interest bill above a trillion dollars a year, a thirty year borrowing cost at nineteen year highs, America simply has cushions that Japan lacks.

全球贸易和结算主要用美元，这种持续的需求给美国争取了时间。

The rest of the world does its business in US dollars, and that steady demand buys time.

但这并不能改变最终的结局。

But it doesn't buy a different outcome.

这就把我们带回到了7月的最后一天，也就是我们故事开始的地方。

Which brings us back to the last day of July where we began this story.

因为这样的干预就像多米诺骨牌一样。

Because interventions like this are a domino.

而重要的是要明白，下一张倒下的牌可能会是什么。

And it's important to understand what domino might fall next.

一个强国，在它故事的早期，从来不会考虑它的债主。

A great power, early in its story, never thinks about its lenders.

它忙着让债主们发财。

It's busy making them rich.

一个强国，在它故事的后期，就会做我们上周看到的事情。

A great power, late in its story, does what we watched last week.

它会重新调整自己的中央银行，让最大的债主永远不必要求还钱。

It replumbs its own central bank so that its biggest lender is never forced to ask for its money back.

当世界上最大的借款国开始印钱，以确保它的银行家永远不必取款时，你就已经知道了关于那笔贷款质量的一切。

When the world's largest borrower starts creating money to make sure that its banker never has to make a withdrawal, you have learned everything you need to know about the quality of that loan.

这次救援恰恰暴露了这套系统操盘手最害怕的事情。

And the rescue revealed precisely what the people running the system are most afraid of.

他们怕的不是日元贬值。

It's not a falling yen.

而是美债价格下跌。

It's a falling US bond.

那面对这种情况，我们该怎么办呢？

So what do you do with all of this?

好，咱们先从结局说起吧，因为不管什么时候用这套剧本，最后都是同一个下场。

Well, let's start with how the playbook ends because it ends the same way every time it's ever been run.

欠了这么多债的政府，是不会用真金白银来还的。

Governments that owe this much money don't pay it back with honest money.

他们也还不起。

They can't.

他们也不会直接赖账，因为那等于立刻破产。

And they don't default outright because that is instant ruin.

所以，他们反而选择了一条安静的路。

So instead, they take the quiet path.

对吧？

Right?

他们争取一些时间。

They buy some time.

他们让货币本身每年贬值一点，这样旧债务用更便宜的货币就更容易偿还了。

They let the money itself lose a little value every year so the old debt gets easier to pay back with cheaper currency.

这条路对现金来说很残酷。

Now that path is brutal for cash.

对储户、持有现金的人，以及那些纸面承诺来说，也很残酷。

And the savers and holders of cash, and for those promises printed on paper.

但对实物资产却很友好，比如能源、金属和可生产的土地，这些不需要廉价货币就能生存的朴实东西。

But it's kind to real things, like energy and metals and productive land, the boring stuff that doesn't need cheap money to survive.

不是因为那些东西变了，而是因为衡量标准的质量变差了。

Not because those things change, but because the quality of the measuring stick gets worse.

所以在接下来的几周里，当你继续读到关于日元救援的新闻时，一定要正确理解它。

And so as you continue to read about this rescue of the yen in the coming weeks, make sure you interpret it correctly.

要像看待任何紧急措施一样去解读它。

Read it the same way you would read about any emergency measure.

制定这些措施的人，正用政府最直白的语言告诉你，他们最担心的是什么。

The people who built it are telling you, in the plainest language that governments ever use, exactly what they are most concerned about.

但这只是我的看法。

But that's just my take.

说实话，我有没有遗漏什么？

Honest question, what am I missing?

在评论区告诉我吧。

Let me know in the comments.

如果你好奇投资那些实物资产是什么样的，对吧？

And if you're curious what investing in those real things looks like, right?

就是能源、金属、生产性材料这些。

The energy, the metals, the productive materials.

我每个月都会举办一次智囊团会议，还有一个平台叫“大宗商品大学”，里面有很多课程和视频教程，专门教大家怎么投资自然资源领域。

I host a monthly mastermind and I have a platform called The Commodity University, which is a catalog of courses, video courses for anybody who wants to understand how to invest in the natural resource sector.

因为我坚信一点。

Because here's what I firmly believe.

这个世界很混乱，也很复杂，有时候甚至是故意搞得这么复杂的。

The world is chaotic and it's pretty complex and sometimes intentionally so.

但如果你能退一步，用原材料供需这个简单的视角去看那些政治言论、贸易冲突，甚至热战，很多事情很快就会变得清晰起来。

But if you can step back and look at whatever it is, the political rhetoric, the trade aggression, even the hot wars through the simple lens of supply and demand of raw materials, things get pretty clear pretty quick.

因为在那些夸张的炒作背后，通常只是有人有东西，有人想要东西，这么简单的一个分歧。

Because behind all of that hyperbolic sensationalism is usually a simple disagreement between somebody that has something and somebody that wants it.

对原材料的控制才是统治世界的关键。

Control of raw materials is what governs the world.

我们在这里的使命，就是让这一点对每个人都看得清清楚楚。

And our mission here is to make that visible to everybody.

如果你有兴趣加入一个志同道合的投资者社区，大家在大宗商品领域分享最好的想法，点下面的链接了解更多吧。

If you're interested in joining a community of like minded investors who are talking about their best ideas in the commodity sector, hit the link below to find out more.