两场战争：一场看得见，一场看不见。

每个帝国都在同时打两场战争。

Every empire fights two wars at once.

一场是你看得见的战争。

One is the war that you can see.

就是那些导弹、航母战斗群，还有新闻频道上的地图。

That's the missiles, the carrier groups, the maps on cable news.

另一场是你看不见的战争。

The other is the war that you can't see.

那是在债券拍卖和货币市场上打的。

The one fought in bond auctions and currency markets.

是那些突然失眠的财政部长的无声恐慌。

The quiet panic of finance ministers who suddenly stopped sleeping.

美国现在两场都在打。

America is fighting both right now.

而没人关注的那场，才是真正重要的。

The one that nobody's watching, watching, that's the one that matters way more.

现在，听我继续说。

Now stay with me.

美国和以色列对伊朗的军事行动已经进行了五周，目前我们掌握的情况是这样的。

Five weeks into The US Israeli campaign against Iran, here is what we know.

霍尔木兹海峡，这条宽约21英里的通道，每天承载着全球约五分之一的石油供应，实际上已经关闭了。

The Strait Of Hormuz, the 21 mile wide corridor through which roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply flows on any given day is effectively closed.

油轮通行量从正常的每天60到70次骤降到几乎为零。

Tanker traffic has collapsed from a normal range of 60 to 70 transits per day to near zero.

伊朗议会议长公开表示，海峡不会恢复到战前状态，我引用他的话。

The bronze parliament speaker has said publicly that the Strait, and I quote, will not return to its prewar status.

说实话，我相信他。

And quite frankly, I believe him.

国际能源署称这是世界历史上最严重的全球能源安全威胁，其后果正在像挡风玻璃上的裂纹一样蔓延。

The International Energy Agency has called this the greatest global energy security threat in world history, and the consequences are spreading like cracks in a windshield.

卡塔尔的拉斯拉凡综合体，全球最大的液化天然气工厂，为数十个国家供应燃料，遭受了严重的导弹袭击。

Qatar's Ross Lofin complex, the largest liquefied natural gas plant on earth, responsible for supplying fuel to dozens of countries, has suffered massive missile damage.

卡塔尔整个液化天然气出口能力的17%被摧毁，最乐观的情况下也要五年才能恢复。

17% of Qatar's entire LNG export capacity is knocked out for up to five years, best case scenario.

像台湾这样的地区，高达40%的电力依赖液化天然气，而他们的储备只够用十一天。

Countries like Taiwan, which rely on liquefied natural gas for up to 40% of their electricity, has an eleven day stockpile.

澳大利亚降低了柴油质量标准，还眼看着数百个加油站彻底断供。

Australia has lowered its diesel quality standards and watched hundreds of petrol stations run completely dry.

斯洛文尼亚成为欧盟第一个实行燃料配给的国家。

Slovenia became the first EU state to introduce fuel rationing.

韩国正在实施车辆每五天限行一次的制度，而且政府官员的工作时间也在缩减到每周四天。

South Korea is enforcing a five day vehicle rotation system, and they're moving down to four day work weeks for government officials.

这些我们都已经知道了。

So we know all of that.

对吧？

Alright?

那么，有什么新消息吗，Jay？

So what's new, Jay?

你看。

Look.

但没人提到的是这一点。

Here's the part that nobody is talking about.

当全世界都在关注波斯湾的导弹和航母战斗群时，还有一场战争正在进行，一场可能摧毁整个美国金融体系的战争。

While the whole world watches the missiles and the carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, there is a second war happening, one that could break the entire American financial system.

要理解为什么可能没有好的出路，你也需要了解这场战争。

And to understand why there may be no good way out, you need to understand this other war as well.

迈克尔·海伊，欧洲最大银行之一法国兴业银行的全球大宗商品研究主管，上周表示，运往英国的最后一船航空燃油正在抵达。

Michael Hay, the global head of commodities research at Societe Generale, one of the largest banks in Europe, said last week that the final vessels carrying jet fuel to The United Kingdom were arriving.

而且，我再次引用他的话，之后就没有了。

And that and again, I quote, there is no more after that.

这些是我们在接下来几周将看到的一些延迟后果。

These are some of the delayed consequences that we're going to watch unfold over the next few weeks.

好好想想吧。

Let that sink in.

英国再也没有喷气燃料运到了。

No more jet fuel arriving in The United Kingdom.

而且不只是燃料。

And it's not just fuel though.

陶氏化学，全球最大的化学公司之一，其产品从食品包装到医疗用品无所不包，一夜之间将聚乙烯价格翻了一倍。

Dow Chemical, one of the largest chemical companies in the world whose products end up in everything from food packaging to medical supplies, doubled their polyethylene price overnight.

那这为什么重要呢？

Now, why does that matter?

因为聚乙烯就在你的购物袋、水瓶、食品包装和医疗设备里。

It matters because polyethylene is in your grocery bags, your water bottles, your food packaging, your medical equipment.

你看，你在商店买的东西，很可能在到你手之前就接触过聚乙烯。

Look, if you bought it at a store, there's a good chance it touched polyethylene before it touched your hands.

而聚乙烯是由石油基原料制成的。

And polyethylene is made from petroleum based feedstocks.

霍尔木兹海峡一关闭，全球约50%的聚乙烯供应就消失了。

When Hormuz closed, about 50% of global polyethylene supply vanished.

现在他们说，能源价格上涨，所有东西的价格都会跟着涨。

Now they say that when the price of energy goes up, the price of everything goes up.

聚乙烯也是一样的道理。

And you could say the same thing about polyethylene.

这就是中东战争如何影响到你家附近的超市。

And this is how a war in The Middle East shows up at your grocery store.

能源不会只停留在能源领域。

Energy doesn't stay in the energy sector.

它会渗透到你买的每一样东西、吃的每一样东西、建的每一样东西里。

It flows through everything you buy, everything you eat, and everything you build.

现在来看看军事方面的情况。

Now here's the military picture.

美国和以色列的拦截导弹库存已经严重不足了。

American and Israeli interceptor stockpiles are running dangerously low.

英国皇家联合军种研究所估计，美国的导弹防御系统大约一个月内就会耗尽，而要重建这场战争前十六天消耗的库存，可能需要五年时间。

The Royal United Service Institute estimates that America is roughly a month from exhausting key missile defense systems, and it could take five years to rebuild what was expended in the first sixteen days of this war.

该地区有13个美国军事基地现在被认为几乎无法居住，不是因为它们被摧毁了，而是因为它们无法抵御每天20到30枚导弹和无人机的攻击。

13 American military bases in the region are now deemed all but uninhabitable, and not because they're destroyed, but because they're indefensible against an onslaught of 20 to 30 missiles and drones per day.

这种持续消耗的节奏让所有预测伊朗几周前就会耗尽弹药的专家都感到困惑。

A steady grinding pace that has confounded every analyst who expected Iran to run out weeks ago.

尽管你可能读到过关于停火协议含糊不清且存在争议的消息，但我刚才说的这些情况一点都没变。

Now despite what you may have read about the ambiguous and disputed ceasefire, none of what I just said has changed at all.

根据大多数客观评估，伊朗已经把美国锁在了中东之外。

The Iranians have, by most honest assessments, locked The United States out of the Middle East.

这不是因为伊朗拥有更强大的军事力量，因为他们根本不需要。

And not because they have a better military, because they don't need one.

廉价的导弹、廉价的无人机，加上俄罗斯的卫星定位，首次在现代海军史上证明，相对廉价的武器库就能阻止世界上最强大的海军进入关键水道。

Cheap missiles, cheap drones, and Russian satellite targeting has shown for the first time in modern naval history that a relatively inexpensive arsenal can deny the world's most powerful navy access to a critical waterway.

自荷兰帝国时代以来，400年来，控制海洋一直是全球权力的基础。

For 400, since the days of the Dutch Empire, control of the seas has been the foundation of global power.

一个军事预算仅为美国一小部分的国家就能让一支海军失效，这种想法在五周前还被大多数防务分析家认为是不可能的。

The idea that a navy could be neutralized by a country with a fraction of America's military budget was, until five weeks ago, considered impossible by most defense analysts.

但这个假设现在已经不成立了。

But that assumption is now dead.

所以，是的，所有人都在关注伊朗。

And so, yes, everybody is watching Iran.

每条头条、每次导弹袭击、每条特朗普关于富有成效对话的帖子，伊朗都立刻否认，但这只是故事的一半。

Every headline, every missile strike, every Trump post about productive conversations that Tehran immediately denies, but that is only half of the story.

所以要理解第二场战争，那场可能更重要的战争，我需要解释一件大多数人从未想过的事情。

So to understand the second war, the one that may matter more, I need to explain something that most people never think about.

这不复杂，但很重要。

It's not complicated, but it is important.

当美国政府花的钱比收的税多，每年都是如此，高达数万亿美元，它就会借差额。

When the US government spends more money than it collects in taxes, which it does every single year, to the tune of trillions of dollars, it borrows the difference.

它通过出售称为国债的借条来借钱。

Now it does this by selling IOUs called treasury bonds.

十年期国债只是美国的一个承诺。

A ten year treasury is just a promise from the U.

美国。

S.

政府承诺十年后连本带利还给你，这些债券被认为是世界上最安全的投资，因为理论上，美国。

Government to pay you back in ten years with interest, and these bonds are considered the safest investment in the world because in theory, the U.

政府。

S.

总是会还清债务的。

Government always pays its debts.

现在，这就是为什么这件事现在很重要。

Now here's why that matters right now.

世界各地的国家，比如日本、英国、中国、韩国，还有几十个国家，持有大约9.4万亿美元的这些美国借条，他们买这些是因为美国国债安全、流动性好，而且是以美元计价的。

Countries around the world like Japan, UK, China, South Korea, dozens of others hold roughly $9,400,000,000,000 worth of these American IOUs, and they bought them because Treasuries are safe, they're liquid, and they're denominated in U.

美元。

S.

美元。

Dollars.

几十年来，这个体系一直运转得很好。

Now for decades, this system has worked beautifully.

美国

The U.

政府

S.

借钱成本很低。

Borrows cheaply.

外国政府把这些储蓄放在一个安全的资产里。

Foreign governments park these savings in a safe asset.

大家都赢，直到所有人同时需要拿回现金。

Everybody wins until everybody needs their cash back at the exact same time.

现在让我问你一个问题。

Now let me ask you a question.

如果你是日本央行的行长，你的国家突然面临能源危机，可能关闭所有工厂、发电厂和航运路线，你需要立即用美元在公开市场上购买石油。

If you were running Japan's central bank and your country was suddenly staring down an energy crisis that threatened to shut down every factory, every power plant, and every shipping route, and you needed dollars immediately to buy oil on the open market.

你会先卖什么？

What would you sell first?

好，让我告诉你。

Well, let me tell you.

你会卖掉你手里流动性最强的美元资产。

You would sell the most liquid dollar denominated asset that you own.

你会卖掉美国

You would sell U.

国债，

S.

而这正是现在正在发生的事情。

Treasuries, and that is exactly what's happening.

外国央行在纽约联储持有的美国国债已经降到了2012年以来的最低水平。

Foreign central banks holding Treasuries at the New York Federal Reserve have dropped to their lowest level since 2012.

这个下降趋势从战争爆发的那一个月就开始了。

Now this decline started the month the war began.

那些能源短缺、正在恐慌的国家正在抛售美国国债，以筹集美元来购买燃料。

Countries that are short energy and panicking are dumping American government bonds to raise dollars to pay for fuel.

日本持有1.2万亿美元的美国国债。

Japan holds $1,200,000,000,000 in treasuries.

英国持有8950亿美元的美国国债。

The United Kingdom holds 895,000,000,000.

这些可不是小数目。

These are not small positions.

现在，让我花点时间解释一下，因为虽然大家都在谈论国债市场，但我发现很多人其实并不真正了解它是如何运作的，但实际上这很简单。

Now let me take a minute to break this down because although everybody talks about the treasury market, I've learned that many people don't really understand how it works, but it's actually quite simple.

所以让我来解释一下。

So let me explain.

假设你是美国政府。

Put yourself in the position of the US government.

你花的比赚的多，所以你需要借点钱来支付账单。

You spend more than you make, so you need to borrow some cash to pay your bills.

比如说，我借给你一千美元，你同意给我5%的利息。

So let's say I loan you a thousand dollars and you agree to pay me 5% interest.

每年50美元，持续五年。

$50 a year for five years.

这样我每年都能拿到利息，五年后还能拿回那一千美元。

Now I'm earning annual interest and I'll get my thousand dollars back in five years.

听起来挺划算的。

Sounds like a pretty good deal.

但问题来了。

But here's the problem.

五年期限才过了两年，我突然需要资金周转，得马上把钱要回来。

Two years into that five year period, I get a cash call, and I need my money back right now.

可问题是，你还有三年才需要还我全额。

But the problem is you don't owe me the full amount back for another three years.

因为这是一笔五年期的贷款。

It was a five year loan.

所以我就去找人买下这笔贷款，找到了一个第三方，我跟他们说，你看，这个人欠我一千美元。

So I go looking for someone to buy the loan from me, and I find a third party, and I tell them, look, this person owes me a thousand dollars.

他们每年付我5%的利息。

They're paying me 5% per year.

现在全额还款还有三年才到期，但我今天就需要这笔钱。

Now the full amount is due in three years, but I need the money today.

所以你把这笔贷款买过去，那些付款，那5%的利息，就归你了。

So buy this loan from me and those payments, that 5%, are yours.

三年后，你就能从他们那里拿回你的一千美元。

And in three years, you'll get your thousand dollars back from them.

问题是，那个第三方能看出我有多着急。

The problem is that third party can smell my desperation.

他们知道我今天就需要这笔钱。

They know I need the money today.

所以他们跟我说的是，你看，我可以买下这笔贷款，但我不会给你全额。

And so what they tell me is, look, I'll buy the loan, but I'm not gonna give you full value.

那一千美元的贷款，我给你八百美元。

I'll pay you $800 for that thousand dollar loan.

虽然我没拿到全额，但我今天就能拿到现金，这正是我需要的。

Now, I'm not getting full value, but I am getting the cash today, which is what I need.

所以我就接受了这个交易。

So I take the deal.

现在想想刚才发生了什么。

Now think about what just happened.

那个第三方只花了八百美元，就买到了一张贷款票据，三年后能收回一千美元，而且期间还有利息。

That third party just paid $800 for a loan note that will pay them a thousand dollars in three years, plus interest along the way.

他的实际回报率，也就是收益率，因此上升了，因为他用更少的钱买到了同样的现金流。

His effective return, his yield just went up because he paid less for the same stream of payments.

现在想象一下，这种情况大规模发生。

Now imagine this happening at scale.

不只是某个贷款人，而是整个国家。

Not one lender, but entire countries.

日本、英国、韩国，都急需现金买石油，都在同时抛售美国国债。

Japan, The UK, South Korea, all desperate for cash to buy oil, all selling U.

美国国债。

S.

而且都愿意接受低于面值的价格。

Treasury bonds at the same time, all willing to take less than full value.

我们说的不是几千美元。

And we're not talking thousands of dollars.

我们说的是数万亿美元。

We're talking trillions.

那这为什么是个问题呢？

So why is this a problem?

问题在于，美国花的比赚的多，所以它还需要继续借新债。

It's a problem because The United States is still spending more than it earns, so it continues to need new loans.

但如果我在公开市场上花800美元就能买到现有的国债，我为什么要付给美国

But if I can buy an existing treasury bond on the open market for $800, why would I pay the U.

美国。

S.

政府要花一千美元买一张全新的国债？

Government a thousand dollars for a brand new one?

你看，我不会买，谁也不会买。

Look, I wouldn't, and nobody would.

所以政府被迫提高新债券的利率来吸引新的贷款人，这意味着政府自身的借贷成本在它最负担不起的时候上升了。

So the government is forced to offer higher interest rates on its new bonds just to attract new lenders, which means the cost of borrowing goes up for the government itself at exactly the moment when it can least afford it.

而且因为国债收益率是经济中几乎所有利率的基准，突然之间，房贷、车贷、企业债，所有东西一下子都变得更贵了，这就是困境所在。

And because treasury yields set the baseline for nearly every interest rate in the economy, suddenly mortgages, car loans, corporate debt, everything gets more expensive all at once, and this is the predicament.

美国需要提供更高的利率来激励其他国家借钱给它，但矛盾的是，更高的利率会拖垮它自己的经济。

The United States needs to offer higher interest rates to incentivize other countries to lend it money, but paradoxically, higher interest rates will break its own economy.

现在，真正危险的地方在这里。

Now, here's what makes this really dangerous.

在过去的十二年里，美国

Over the last twelve years, U.

美国。

S.

联邦债务已经惊人地增加了22万亿美元。

Federal debt has risen by a staggering $22,000,000,000,000.

在同一时期，外国买家购买这些债务的数量持平甚至下降。

Over that same period, foreign buyers of that debt have been flat to declining.

这个缺口越来越多地由美联储自己填补，也就是美国的中央银行，基本上是在印钱来购买自己政府的借条。

The gap has been filled increasingly by the Federal Reserve itself, America's central bank essentially printing money to buy its own government's IOUs.

当世界平静、通胀低的时候，这还行得通。

Now that works when the world is calm and inflation is low.

但当油价飙升、供应链断裂，而且持有你9.4万亿美元债务的国家为了维持生计而抛售这些债务时，这就不行了。

It doesn't work when oil is spiking, supply chains are fracturing, and the countries holding 9,400,000,000,000 of your debt are selling it to keep their lights on.

这就把我们带到了斯科特·贝森特，特朗普的财政部长，负责确保美国……

And this brings us to Scott Bissent, Trump's treasury secretary, the man responsible for making sure the U.

美国。

S.

政府才能继续借到它运作所需的钱。

Government can continue to borrow the money that it needs to function.

过去六周，每当十年期国债收益率逼近4.4%时，特朗普就会突然缩减军事行动来安抚市场。

Every time the interest rate on the ten year treasury has crept towards 4.4% in the last six week, Trump has suddenly dialed back military action to calm the market.

他暂停了打击行动。

He pauses strikes.

他延长了最后期限。

He extends deadlines.

他在推特上说进行了富有成效的对话。

He tweets about productive conversations.

这可不是巧合。

This is not a coincidence.

4.4%似乎就是那条线，一旦收益率达到这个水平，美国偿还36万亿美元国债的成本就会开始失控。

4.4 appears to be the line, the yield at which the cost of servicing America's $36,000,000,000,000 national debt starts spiraling out of control.

三月底连续三次国债拍卖，也就是政府试图向新投资者出售新债券的活动，都遭遇了非常疲弱的需求。

Three consecutive treasury auctions in late March, events where the government tries to sell new bonds to new investors, attracted very weak demand.

简单来说，就是政府发行债券，但想买的人变少了。

In plain terms, that means the government put bonds up for sale and fewer people wanted to buy them.

这就是我们一直在讨论的问题。

This is what we've been talking about the entire time.

两年期和五年期国债的拍卖是多年来最冷清的。

The two year and the five year auctions were the weakest that we've seen in years.

债券市场在传递一个信号，那就是我们不信任美国会有好结果，因此也不信任美国国债。

The bond market is sending a message, and the message is we don't trust that this ends well for The United States, and therefore the United States Treasuries.

好的。

Okay.

那么这一切的意义是什么呢？

So what's the point of all this?

意义在于这一点。

The point is this.

美国不仅仅是在霍尔木兹海峡打仗。

The United States is not just fighting a war in the Strait Of Hormuz.

它正在债券市场打仗。

It's fighting a war in the bond market.

而现在，债券市场正在输。

And right now, the bond market is losing.

输的样子是这样的。

Here's what a loss looks like.

如果霍尔木兹海峡再关闭几周——这看起来很有可能——油价就会保持在引发全球衰退的水平，因为能源、聚乙烯、化肥和食品价格都会高涨。

If Hormuz remains closed for another few weeks, which appears highly likely, the cost of oil stays at levels that guarantee global recession triggered by high energy, high polyethylene, high fertilizer, and high food prices.

衰退意味着政府税收大幅下降，因为赚钱的人少了，政府能收的税也就少了。

Now a recession means that government tax revenues collapse because if less people are making money, the government can take less of it.

当税收崩溃，但债务不变，利息支出就会占预算的更大份额。

When revenues collapse, but the debt stays the same, that means the cost of interest payments eats an even larger share of the budget.

这就迫使政府以更高的利率借更多的钱，从而推高债务，进一步推高利率。

That forces the government to borrow even more money at higher rates, which drives the debt higher, which drives rates higher still.

我再给你举个具体的例子，让你彻底明白。

Let me personalize this for you one more time just to make it super clear.

想象一下，你花的比挣的多，所以你需要借钱。

Imagine that you spend more than you earn, and so you need to borrow.

但后来，你工作上被降薪了，所以现在你必须借更多。

But then, you take a pay cut at work, So, now you must borrow more.

但人们开始对你借钱变得谨慎。

But people are becoming wary of lending to you.

所以，你得给他们更高的利率，才能让他们有兴趣借给你更多钱。

So, you have to offer them a higher interest rate to get them interested in lending you more money.

所以，现在你每个月要支付更高的利息，而且你还需要钱来付这些利息，所以你借得更多。

So, now you are making higher interest payments every month and you need money for that too, so you borrow even more.

而且，还是以那个更高的利率。

Again, at that higher interest rate.

现在你知道这会走向哪里了，别被那些穿西装的人和讲台上复杂的语言给骗了。

Now you see where this goes, and don't be fooled by the men in suits and complex language from the podium.

这和美国的那个情况完全一样。

This is the exact same situation that the U.

美国政府。

S.

政府现在就是这个情况。

Government is in.

经济学家把这叫做债务螺旋，现在你明白为什么了吧。

Economists call this a debt spiral, and now you understand why.

所以，一个很自然的问题，我也会这么问，就是——

So the logical question, and I'd be asking this too, is this.

如果债券市场才是真正的威胁，那为什么不干脆不管伊朗，专心应对金融危机呢？

If the bond market is really the threat, why not just leave Iran and focus on the financial crisis?

原因在这里。

And here's the reason.

因为这两场战争其实是同一场战争。

Because the two wars are actually the same war.

不解决一个，另一个也解决不了。

You can't fix one without fixing the other.

债券市场承压，因为外国央行在抛售美国国债。

The bond market is under pressure because foreign central banks are selling Treasuries.

他们抛售国债是因为需要美元。

They're selling Treasuries because they need dollars.

他们需要美元是因为油价飙升了。

They need dollars because oil prices have spiked.

油价飙升是因为霍尔木兹海峡被封锁了，而霍尔木兹海峡被封锁是因为美国攻击了伊朗。

Oil prices have spiked because Hormuz is closed, and Hormuz is closed because The United States attacked Iran.

事已至此。

And what's done is done.

所以现在从另一个方向来看这个威胁，结果也是一样的。

So now pull the threat in the other direction, and it unravels exactly the same way.

如果美国就这么离开伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡不会一直封锁着。

If The United States just walks away from Iran, Hormuz doesn't stay closed.

它会重新开放，但条件是伊朗说了算。

It reopens, but on Iran's terms.

这可不是猜测。

And this is not speculation.

这已经在发生了。

It's already happening.

伊朗现在就在海峡里搞收费系统。

Iran is running a tollbooth system in the strait right now.

船只用人民币和加密货币支付通行费，革命卫队通过自己的清关走廊审查船只。

Ships are paying passage in Chinese yuan and cryptocurrency, and the IRGC is vetting vessels through its own clearance corridor.

中国船只已经通过了。

Chinese ships have sailed through.

上周有一艘法国拥有的集装箱船通过了，很可能用人民币支付，因为欧洲银行不会处理向受制裁国家的付款。

A French owned container ship transited last week, likely paying in yuan, since European banks won't process payments to a sanctioned state.

正如前英国外交官阿利斯泰尔·克鲁克最近所说，伊朗把这场冲突看作改变整个西亚地缘政治的机会。

As former British diplomat Alistair Crook put it recently, Iran sees this conflict as an opportunity to change the whole geopolitics of West Asia.

所以如果美国……

So if The U.

美国。

S.

如果美国撤出，石油会再次流通，但不再用美元结算。

Withdraws, the oil flows again, but not in dollars.

全球能源贸易将转向人民币结算，并通过中国的金融体系进行。

And the global energy trade shifts to Yuan settlement, routed through China's financial system.

德意志银行已经发布了一份报告，称伊朗战争可能成为他们所谓的“石油人民币”形成的催化剂。

Deutsche Bank has already published a note, calling the Iran war the potential catalyst for what they deemed the making of the Petro-Yuan.

美元作为储备货币的地位，是美国国债被视为世界上最安全投资的原因，

The dollar's reserve currency status, the reason the U.

这使得美国能够借入36万亿美元并维持运转，

S.

但在这种情况下，这一地位会受到打击，可能永远无法恢复。

Treasury has been deemed the safest investment in the world, allowing The United States to borrow $36,000,000,000,000 and keep functioning, takes a hit in this situation that it may never recover from.

因此，债券市场无论如何都会崩溃，只是原因不同。

And so the bond market breaks anyway, just for a different reason.

这就是困境所在。

And that is the quagmire.

不是两扇门，一好一坏。

Not two doors, one good, one bad.

是两扇门，都很糟糕。

Two doors, both bad.

留在伊朗的话，债券市场会因为油价上涨和外资抛售而持续失血。

Stay in Iran and the bond market bleeds from higher oil prices and foreign selling.

如果放过伊朗，那随着石油美元体系崩塌、全球对美元信心崩盘，债券市场同样会陷入大出血的困境。

Leave Iran and the bond market bleeds from the death of the Petro dollar and a collapse in global confidence.

而要让美国国债市场稳住，只有一种可能——

The only scenario where the treasury market stabilizes is the one where The U.

美国

S.

重新控制了海峡，石油贸易又恢复以美元结算了

Regains control of the Strait and oil flows again in U.

美国。

S.

美元通过美国控制的水域，按照美国的条件流通。

Dollars through American secured waters on American terms.

这就是为什么这场战争不会平静地结束。

And that is why this war is not going to end quietly.

两场战争。

Two wars.

一场你能看到，导弹、无人机、海湾的航母战斗群；另一场你看不到，债券拍卖、收益率曲线，以及从东京到伦敦央行金库里的缓慢恐慌。

One you can see, the missiles, the drones, the carrier groups in The Gulf, and one you can't, the bond auctions, the yield curve, and the slow motion panic in central bank vaults from Tokyo to London.

这两场其实是同一场战争，而现在美国两场都在输。

These are the same war, and right now America is losing both of them.

问个实在的问题。

Honest question.

在评论区告诉我你的想法。

Let me know what you think in the comments.

我是不是漏掉了什么？

What am I missing?

如果你喜欢我的内容，我每周都会在Jay Martin的节目上发布新内容。

If you enjoy my content, I publish right here every single week on the Jay Martin show.

我们下周见。

I will see you next week.