为什么我拥有政府无法印制的东西

想象一下，你可以借钱，而且利率由你自己来定。

Imagine that you could borrow money and pick your own interest rate.

不是银行定，而是你来定。

Not the bank, but you.

那你每次都会选择低利率，对吧。

You would pick a low rate every single time.

再想象一下，你欠了超过40万亿美元的债务。

Now imagine that you owe more than $40,000,000,000,000.

这就是今天的美国联邦政府。

That's the United States government today.

而今年，它光是利息就支付了超过1万亿美元。

And this year, it paid more than $1,000,000,000,000 just in interest.

这比它整个军费开支还要多。

That's more money than it spent on its entire military.

现在，有一种工具能让政府做到我刚才说的——自己设定利率，这就是所谓的“收益率曲线控制”。

Now there is a tool that lets a government do exactly what I just described, pick its own interest rate, and it's called yield curve control.

我预计接下来一年你会听到更多关于这个的内容。

Now I expect that you're going to hear a lot more about this in the coming year.

所以当这种情况发生时，了解收益率曲线控制到底是什么、为什么重要、为什么会发生，以及最重要的是，它如何影响你的投资组合和储蓄账户，将会很有价值。

So when that happens, it will be valuable to know exactly what yield curve control is, why it matters, why it happens, and most importantly, how it impacts your investment portfolio and your savings account.

因为美国在二战期间用过这个，日本在2016年到2024年也用过。

Because America used this during World War two, and Japan used it from 2016 to 2024.

而且很多严肃的人认为美国可能会再次使用它。

And a lot of serious people think that America may reach for it again.

所以在接下来的几分钟里，我会向你展示它是如何运作的，在这种情况下谁会赢，谁会付出代价，以及为什么即使你从未购买过政府债券，它对你也很重要。

So in the next few minutes, I'm gonna show you how it works, who wins in that scenario, who pays in that scenario, and why it matters to you even if you have never purchased a government bond.

那么首先，让我们快速回顾一下什么是债券，以及在这种情况下收益率意味着什么。

So to begin, let's have a quick refresher of what a bond is and therefore what yield means in this situation.

所以当政府支出超过税收收入时，它每年都会这样做，它就会借入差额。

So when the government spends more than it collects in taxes, which it does every single year, it borrows the difference.

它通过出售债券来借入资金。

It borrows by selling bonds.

债券其实就是一张欠条。

Now a bond is just an IOU.

你给政府一千美元。

You give the government $1,000.

它每年向你支付利息，然后在约定的日期把那一千美元还给你。

It pays you interest every single year, then gives your thousand dollars back at a set date.

那个日期可能是三个月后、十年后，或者三十年后，取决于债券的期限。

And that date might be three months away, ten years away, or thirty years away depending on the duration of that bond.

你赚到的利息就叫收益率。

The interest that you earn is called the yield.

如果一张一千美元的债券每年付你四十美元，那收益率就是百分之四。

If a thousand dollar bond pays you $40 per year, the yield is 4%.

记住一条规则。

Now here's one rule to remember.

债券每天都在二级市场上买卖，价格随需求变动。

Bonds are bought and sold every day on the secondary market, and their price moves with demand.

当很多人想要某种债券时，它的价格就会上涨。

When lots of people want a bond, its price rises.

而当很少有人想要时，它的价格就会下降。

And when few people do, its price falls.

接下来是反直觉的部分。

Now here's the counterintuitive part.

当债券价格下降时，它的收益率反而会上升。

When a bond's price goes down, its yield goes up.

这是为什么呢？

Now why does that happen?

假设现在很少有人想要那种债券。

Let's say fewer people want that bond.

那么债券的持有者就不得不以低于买入价的价格出售它。

Its owner therefore has to sell it for less than they bought it for.

他们当初买了那笔一千美元的债券，但现在因为没多少人想买政府债券，他们不得不以八百美元的价格卖掉。

They bought that thousand dollar bond, but they have to sell it for $800 because there's not a lot of people that wanna buy government bonds right now.

但政府仍然每年向持有者支付那40美元的利息。

But the government still pays that $40 per year interest to whoever holds it.

所以，40美元除以1000是4%，但40美元除以800就是5%。

So $40 on a thousand is 4%, but $40 on 800 is 5%.

所以，当债券价格下降时，实际收益率反而上升。

So the effective yield goes up when the price of the bond goes down.

所以，当买家对美国国债失去兴趣时，利率就会上升。

So when buyers lose their appetite for US debt, interest rates therefore rise.

当买家涌入时，利率就会下降。

When buyers rush in, interest rates fall.

现在有一种东西叫收益率曲线。

Now there's something called the yield curve.

理解这一点很重要。

That's important to understand here.

短期贷款通常利率较低，而长期贷款通常利率较高，因为你的资金被锁定更长时间。

Short term loans usually pay a low rate, and long term loans usually pay more because your money is tied up for longer.

如果你把每种贷款期限的利率画成一条线，短期在左边，长期在右边，那条线就叫收益率曲线。

Now if you were to draw a line straight through the rate for each loan length, short on the left, long on the right, that line is called the yield curve.

通常情况下，这条线是向上倾斜的。

Now normally, the line slopes up.

当长期利率比短期利率涨得快时，曲线就会变陡，这通常意味着投资者预期未来会有经济增长或通货膨胀。

When long term rates climb faster than short term rates, the curve steepens, which usually means investors expect growth or inflation ahead.

当差距缩小时，曲线就会变平。

When the gap shrinks, the curve flattens.

当短期利率高于长期利率时，曲线就会倒转。

And when short term rates rise above long term rates, the curve inverts.

这种情况不常见，而且自上世纪六十年代以来，几乎每次美国经济衰退前都出现过。

That's unusual, and it's shown up before nearly every US recession since the nineteen sixties.

那条线上有一个点最重要，就是十年期利率。

One point on that line matters the most, the ten year rate.

抵押贷款利率是跟着十年期走的。

Mortgage rates follow the ten year.

商业贷款利率也跟随十年期利率。

Business loans follow the ten year.

十年期利率一动，整个国家、整个经济的借贷成本都会跟着变动。

When it moves, borrowing costs across the entire country and the entire economy move with it.

现在我们来谈谈收益率曲线控制。

Now let's talk about yield curve control.

既然我们已经弄清楚了收益率和收益率曲线是什么，那么你会怎么去控制这条收益率曲线呢？

Now that we've established what yield is and what the yield curve is, how would you go about controlling that yield curve?

通常情况下，美联储，也就是美国的中央银行，直接设定的利率只有一个。

So normally, the Federal Reserve, America's Central Bank, directly sets just one interest rate.

那就是银行之间隔夜贷款的利率。

The rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans.

那是在曲线的最左端，也就是非常短期的部分。

That's the far left of the curve, the very short term.

但这个利率会拉动其他利率，因为十年期利率大致就是投资者预期未来十年短期利率的平均值，再加上通货膨胀风险溢价。

But it pulls on the other rates because the ten year rate is roughly what investors expect short term rates to average over the next ten years plus extra for the risk of inflation.

但美联储并不设定十年期利率。

But the Fed doesn't set the ten year rate.

这个利率是由买卖双方决定的。

Buyers and sellers do.

如果投资者认为政府借贷过多，或者通胀过高或即将过高，他们会要求更高的利率才愿意借贷，因为他们想要比通胀侵蚀掉的更大的回报。

Now if investors think the government is borrowing too much or if inflation is running too hot or about to run too hot, they demand a higher rate before they'll lend because they want a bigger return than what is wasted away by inflation.

利率上升是市场在说：我对未来感到担忧。

A rising rate is the market saying, I'm worried about the future.

收益率曲线控制就是要把这个权力从市场手中夺走。

Yield curve control takes that power away from the market.

好的。

Okay.

下面说说它是怎么运作的。

Here's how it works.

美联储，也就是美国的中央银行，会宣布一个上限，即十年期利率可能达到的最高水平。

The Fed or the Federal Reserve, the Central Bank announces a ceiling, a top of what the ten year rate might be.

比如说，他们可能会公开宣布十年期利率不会超过3%。

For example, they may come out and say the ten year rate will not go above 3%.

他们可能会公开声明这一点。

They may state that publicly.

也可能不会。

They might not.

但他们心里有这个目标。

But they have that goal in mind.

现在，如果投资者卖出债券，利率攀升接近3%，因为卖出压力导致债券价值下降，而收益率反而上升，美联储就会买入这些债券，给市场增加买入压力来平衡这种情况。

Now if investors sell bonds and the rate climbs towards 3% because selling pressure drops the value of the bond and inversely, the yield goes up, the Fed buys those bonds and adds buying pressure to the market to balance that out.

所以买入会把债券价格推回上去。

So buying pushes the price of the bond back up.

价格上升意味着收益率下降，利率就会回落到3%以下。

Price up means yields down, and the rate drops back under 3%.

在收益率曲线控制的环境下，美联储承诺会买入足够多的债券，把利率维持在目标水平。

Now in a yield curve control environment, the Fed promises to buy as many bonds as it takes to keep that rate where the goal is.

没有上限。

There's no limit.

那美联储的钱从哪里来呢？

Now where does the Fed get the money?

它就是凭空创造的。

It it just creates it.

美联储是美国唯一一个可以凭空创造新美元的地方。

The Fed is the one place in America that can just create new dollars.

当它购买债券时，它支付的是前一天还不存在的钱。

When it buys a bond, it pays with money that didn't exist the day before.

这就是键盘货币。

It's keyboard money.

它是被印刷出来或者被敲击键盘创造出来的。

It's printed into existence or typed into existence.

而这一点至关重要。

And that's key.

这个无限承诺就是收益率曲线控制的关键。

That unlimited promise is the key when it comes to yield curve control.

如果投资者相信政府会兑现承诺，不惜购买尽可能多的债券来压低利率，那么通常当债券卖家涌入市场时，是因为他们担心其他人也会出售，从而压低他们拥有的资产价值。

If investors believe the government will stand by what they say and buy as many bonds as they have to to keep the rate down, typically, when bond sellers rush into the market, it's because they're concerned other people are going to sell too and push down the value of the asset they own.

但如果有一个有保证的买家在场，他们可以依靠这个买家来稳定价格，他们通常会停止出售。

But if there's a guaranteed buyer in the arena that they can rely on to hold that price steady, they'll typically stop selling.

现在你可能听说过量化宽松，这是印钱的另一种说法。

Now you may have heard of quantitative easing, which is a fancy word for money printing.

你可能会想，这听起来很像量化宽松。

And you might be thinking, this sounds a lot like that.

有什么区别呢？

What's the difference?

问这个问题很好，因为操作上差不多是一样的。

It's a great question to ask because the action is more or less the same.

唯一的区别在于结果或目标。

The only difference is the outcome or the goal.

在量化宽松政策下，美联储承诺购买债券，但目的并不是为了压低利率。

With quantitative easing, the Fed commits to buying bonds, but not with the intention of holding the rate down.

美联储承诺购买一定金额的债券。

The Fed commits to buying a certain dollar amount.

例如，他们可能承诺每月购买1200亿美元的债券，以满足政府在危机中的现金需求，就像2020年和2021年那样。

For example, they may commit to buying a $120,000,000,000 of bonds per month to satisfy whatever cash demands the government has in a crisis like it did in 2020 and in 2021.

但它让利率由市场决定，落在哪里就是哪里。

But it lets the rate land wherever the market puts it.

所以，如果在量化宽松期间投资者持续卖出，利率仍然可能上升。

So if investors keep selling during quantitative easing, rates can still rise.

但在收益率曲线控制下，美联储设定利率，并购买所需的任何数量。

But with yield curve control, the Fed sets the rate and buys whatever amount it takes.

新美元的数量变成了没人能控制的东西。

The number of new dollars becomes the thing that nobody controls.

所以，在量化宽松下，美联储承诺购买或创造一定金额的美元，无论利率如何变化，这个金额都是固定的。

So with quantitative easing, the Fed commits to buying a dollar amount or creating a dollar amount, whatever that dollar amount is, regardless of what rates may do.

在收益率曲线控制下，他们同样创造货币，同样购买债券，但结果是利率本身。

With yield curve control, they create money just the same, buy bonds just the same, but the outcome is the rate itself.

而且只要利率保持在他们的目标水平，无论需要花费多少美元，都没有上限。

And as many dollars as have to be spent, there's no limit as long as the rate holds where they want it.

那么，为什么人们认为美国今天正走向收益率曲线控制呢？

So why do people think that America is heading towards yield curve control today?

因为他们今天并没有这样做。

Because they're not doing this today.

事实上，你可以说美联储一直在朝相反的方向发展。

And in fact, you could make the argument that the Fed has been heading the other direction.

九月份通胀率升至3.7%，而那个月美联储实际上自2023年以来首次加息。

Inflation climbed to 3.7 in September, and that month, the Fed actually raised rates for the first time since 2023.

所以他们并不是试图压低利率。

So they're not trying to hold rates down.

他们是有意提高利率。

They intentionally put them up.

那我们为什么还要讨论这个呢？

So why are we even talking about this?

原因在于债务最终会成为一个问题。

And the reason is because of the debt that eventually will become a problem.

美国欠了超过40万亿美元的债务。

The US owes more than $40,000,000,000,000.

五年前，它支付的平均利率大约是1.5%。

Five years ago, it paid an average rate of about 1.5% on that debt.

现在，它支付的大约是3.5%。

Today, it pays about 3.5%.

每当旧债务到期，它就会被以今天更高的利率的新债务所取代。

Every time old debt comes due, it gets replaced with new debt at today's higher rates.

还记得我们之前提到的债券吗？

Remember what we said about bonds earlier.

如果你购买了一千美元的政府债券，可能是一年期、五年期或十年期的，但最终它都会到期，也就是说政府需要把钱还给你。

If you buy a thousand dollar government bond, that may be a one year bond or a five year bond or a ten year bond, but eventually it does come due, meaning the government owes you your money back.

但政府每年都有两万亿美元的赤字。

But the government runs a $2,000,000,000,000 deficit every year.

他们根本没有钱来偿还你。

They don't have any money to pay you.

所以他们采取的方式是出售新债券或新的欠条，通过增加债务来偿还你的债务。

So the way they do is by selling new bonds or new IOUs, raising more debt to pay your debt off.

问题在于，如果你五年前以1.5%的利率把钱借给政府，而现在市场要求3.5%的利率，那么这笔债务会被滚动更新，但利率要高得多。

The problem with that is that if you lent the government money five years ago at 1.5% and today, the market wants 3.5%, that debt gets rolled over but at a much higher interest rate.

这样一来，即使政府不增加债务，债务也会变得更加昂贵。

And that's how the government's debt becomes more expensive even if they don't add to it.

这就是为什么今年的利息账单超过了一万亿美元。

And that's why the interest bill passed $1,000,000,000,000 this year.

而且政府每年仍然比收入多借约两万亿美元。

And the government still borrows about 2,000,000,000,000 more each year than it collects.

这就是陷阱所在。

Here's the trap.

利率越高，利息账单就越大。

Higher rates mean bigger interest bills.

账单越大，就需要借更多的钱。

Bigger bills mean more borrowing.

借得越多，利率可能被推得更高，因为对资本的需求越大，投资者就能要求更高的利率。

More borrowing can push rates higher still because more demand for capital, investors can demand a higher rate.

所以这是个自我循环。

So it feeds itself.

陷入这种困境的政府有三种削减办法。

A government in that trap has three ways to cut.

它可以大幅削减开支。

It could cut spending hard.

它可以大幅增税，或者强行压低利率。

It could raise taxes hard, or it could force interest rates down.

前两种需要投票支持，而且会带来痛苦。

Now the first two need votes and cause pain.

第三种办法，中央银行不用在国会投一张票就能做到。

The third can be done by the central bank without a single vote in congress.

其实美国以前就干过这事。

Now America has done this before.

1942年，因为战争债务巨大，美联储把长期政府借款利率上限定在2.5%，一直保持到1951年。

In 1942 with huge war debts, the Fed capped long term government borrowing at 2.5%, and it held that cap until 1951.

那这对普通老百姓的日常开销意味着什么呢？

So what did that mean for the everyday spender?

先告诉你个好消息。

First, I'll give you the good news.

借钱变得更便宜了。

Borrowing gets cheaper.

如果美联储把十年期利率压住，那么房贷、车贷、商业贷款都会比原本便宜。

If the Fed holds the ten year rate down, then mortgages, car loans, business loans, they stay cheaper than they otherwise would.

但这是有代价的。

But that comes with a cost.

如果美联储通过创造新美元来压低利率，那么更多的美元追逐同样的食品、汽油和房子，就意味着每一美元能买到的东西更少了。

If the Fed holds rates down by creating new dollars, more dollars chasing the same groceries, gas, and houses means that each dollar buys less.

这就是通货膨胀。

That's inflation.

而且，通常抑制通胀的机制会被关闭，因为通常当物价上涨过快时，中央银行会提高利率来减缓经济。

And the normal break on inflation gets switched off because usually when prices rise too fast, the central bank will increase interest rates to slow the economy down.

借贷会放缓，物价会降温。

Borrowing will slow and prices will cool.

但在利率上限和收益率曲线控制下，利率不允许上升。

But under a cap, under yield curve control, rates aren't allowed to rise.

这就是它如何影响你的钱包。

And here's how that hits your wallet.

假设你的储蓄账户利率是3%，而物价每年上涨6%。

Say your savings account pays 3% and prices are rising 6% per year.

从账面上看，你的储蓄在增长，但实际上，它们每年购买力下降约3%。

On paper, your savings are growing, but in real life, they buy you about 3% less every year.

仅仅十年后，你就失去了大约四分之一的购买力。

After only ten years, you've lost about a quarter of your buying power.

经济学家称这种现象为金融压制，它的运作方式是这样的。

Now economists call this financial repression, and here's how it works.

如果通货膨胀率是6%，而你的债券收益率是3%，那么你每年都会损失3%的购买力。

If inflation is 6% and your bond pays 3%, you lose 3% of your buying power every single year.

与此同时，政府用购买力下降的美元偿还债务。

Meanwhile, the government repays its debt with dollars that buy less.

你的损失就是它的收益。

Your loss is its gain.

这是一种没有人投票、也没有人真正收到账单的税，但它仍然被支付了。

It's a tax that nobody votes on and nobody really gets a bill for, but it's still paid.

这就是二战后的情况。

And that's what happened after World War two.

1947年通货膨胀率高达约14%，而政府债券的收益率被限制在2.5%。

Inflation hit about 14% in 1947, while government bonds stayed capped at 2.5%.

储户们损失了很大一部分实际财富。

Savers lost a big share of their real wealth.

政府的债务相对于经济规模迅速缩小，而这正是其目的所在。

The government's debt shrank fast compared to the size of the economy, and that was the whole point.

对日常消费者来说，这意味着什么呢？

For the everyday spender, what does that mean?

贷款更便宜，但其他一切都更贵，储蓄账户的价值也在慢慢缩水。

Cheaper loans, but more expensive everything else, and a savings account that slowly melts.

那么，如果这对日常消费者意味着这些，对普通投资者又意味着什么呢？

So if that's what it means for the everyday spender and consumer, what does it mean for the average investor?

收益率曲线控制会改变哪些资产能保护你，哪些资产会悄悄贬值。

Yield curve control changes which assets protect you and which ones quietly lose.

首先，正如我们之前提到的，债券和现金会贬值。

Now first of all, bonds and cash lose as we covered.

美联储正在限制它们的收益率。

The Fed is capping what they pay.

如果通胀率超过这个上限，他们每年都会失去购买力。

If inflation runs above that cap, they lose buying power every single year.

所以传统投资组合中安全的部分，反而成了缩水、亏损的部分。

So the safe part of the traditional portfolio becomes the part that is shrinking and losing money.

股票的情况则比较复杂。

Stocks are mixed.

借贷成本低对公司有利，新资金也往往会推高股价。

Cheap borrowing can help companies, and new money tends to flow into stock prices.

但其中一部分涨幅，其实只是美元贬值造成的。

But some of that gain is just the dollar losing value.

所以表面上看起来你在赚钱，但实际上并没有。

So it looks like you're getting rich on paper, but in reality, you're not.

如果股票涨了8%，而物价涨了6%，那你实际只赚了2%，而且情况可能比这糟糕得多。

A stock that rises 8% if prices rise 6% only made you 2%, and it can get a lot worse than that.

从历史上看，实物资产的表现是最好的。

Real assets have historically done the best.

是的，这意味着黄金、白银、大宗商品以及生产这些商品的公司的股票。

And, yes, that means gold and silver and commodities and the companies that produce them.

原因如下。

And here's why.

黄金不支付利息，通常这是它的弱点。

Gold pays no interest, and normally, that's its weakness.

当你可以购买支付4%利息的债券时，为什么要持有金属呢？

Why hold a metal when you could buy a bond that pays 4%?

但如果债券现在支付3%的利息，而通货膨胀率上升到6%，债券实际上每年让你损失3%，突然之间，黄金的零收益就比债券的负3%要好。

But if the bond is now paying 3% and inflation is rising at 6%, the bond is really losing you 3% per year, and suddenly gold zero beats the bonds minus three.

这个差距，即利率减去通货膨胀率，被称为实际利率。

Now that gap, the interest rate minus inflation is called the real interest rate.

当实际利率变为负数时，黄金往往会上涨。

When it goes negative, gold has tended to rise.

收益率曲线控制是制造负实际利率的机器。

Yield curve control is a machine for making real rates negative.

现在还有第二个原因。

Now there's a second reason.

大宗商品是以美元定价的。

Commodities are priced in dollars.

所以当美联储印制更多美元时，每一美元的价值就降低了。

So when the Fed creates more dollars, each one is worth less.

因此，要购买一盎司黄金或一磅铜，就需要更多的美元。

So it takes more of them to buy an ounce of gold or a pound of copper.

日本就是现代的例子。

Japan is the modern example of this.

从2016年到2024年，日本银行将其十年期利率维持在接近零的水平。

From 2016 to 2024, the Bank of Japan held its ten year rate near zero.

为了做到这一点，它最终购买了大约一半的日本政府债券。

To do it, it ended up owning about half of all Japanese government bonds.

中央银行一直在购买这些债券。

The central bank was buying them.

日元对美元的汇率跌到了三十多年来的最低点。

The yen fell to its weakest level against the dollar in more than thirty years.

持有日元的人购买力下降了。

People holding yen lost their buying power.

持有黄金的人以日元计算收益非常好。

People holding gold did very well in yen terms.

现在，这就是教训。

Now here's the lesson.

在收益率曲线控制下，不要持有或购买政府压制的资产。

Under yield curve control, do not own or buy what the government is holding down.

持有他们无法印刷的东西。

Hold what they can't print.

如果你想认识那些发现、建设和资助铜、银、金矿的公司和个人，那就来参加我的年度会议吧。

Now if you want to meet the companies and the people that are finding, building, and financing the mines that produce the copper, the silver, the gold, then join me at my annual conference.

每年，大约有11000名投资者参加温哥华资源投资会议。

Every year, we get about 11,000 investors at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference.

明年是一月二十四号和二十五号，在温哥华会议中心。

Next year is January twenty fourth and twenty fifth at the Vancouver Convention Center.

我会请来大约一百位主题演讲嘉宾，还有大概三百五十家矿业公司参展，他们都在努力解决全球所需关键金属的供应问题。

And I fly in about a 100 keynote speakers, and there's maybe 350 mining companies on the trade show floor who are working to solve the supply issues for all the critical metals that the world needs.

看看下面的链接。

Check the link below.

我很希望在那里见到你。

I'd love to see you there.

我会连续两天在台上，和一百位最好的朋友一起，那真是非常开心。

I'll be on stage for two days straight with a 100 of my best friends, and it's a total blast.

最后我想提的是，世界如何看待美国，其他国家对美元的认知，以及这如何影响美国政府依赖的债务市场，尤其是在收益率曲线控制的情况下。

The last thing I wanna mention here is how the world sees America, how the rest of the world perceives the American dollar, and how that impacts the debt markets that the US government relies on under a yield curve control scenario.

因为美国国债历来被视为世界上最安全的资产。

Because US government bonds have been treated historically as the safest asset on earth.

所以外国政府、中央银行和养老基金持有数万亿美元的国债。

So foreign governments, central banks, and pension funds hold trillions of dollars of them.

他们持有这些债券有两个原因。

And they hold them for two reasons.

他们相信利率是由自由市场设定的。

They trust the interest rate is set by a free market.

这一点至关重要。

That's key.

而且他们相信，在债券期限内，他们得到的美元会保值。

And they trust that they'll be repaid in dollars that held their value during the duration of that bond.

收益率曲线控制破坏了这两项承诺。

Yield curve control breaks both of those commitments.

利率不再由市场决定。

The rate is no longer set by the market.

而是由借款方自己的中央银行设定，而且用来偿还你的美元是为了压低利率而创造的。

It's set by the borrower's own central bank, And the dollars that are used to repay you are being created to hold the rate down.

所以这些美元肯定不如你购买债券时值钱。

So they're definitely not going to be worth what they were when you bought the bond.

那你还会愿意借钱给一个能自己决定付你多少利息，并且保证还款时给你的钱在纸面上看起来一样，但实际上能买到的东西却少得多的人吗？

So would you keep lending to somebody who gets to decide what interest rate they're going to pay you and guarantees that what they pay you back in will look the same on paper, but will in fact buy you a lot less.

不会。

No.

不会。

No.

你当然不会。

You wouldn't.

没人会做这种交易。

Nobody would do that deal.

而且外国买家已经在撤了，他们预料到未来会有收益率曲线控制。

And foreign buyers are already pulling back, expecting yield curve control to be coming in the future.

外国持有的美国债务比例多年来一直在下降。

The foreign share of US debt has been shrinking for years.

而且自2022年以来，各国央行购买黄金的速度比现代有记录以来的任何时候都要快。

And since 2022, central banks have bought gold faster than any time in modern records.

还记得为什么吗？

Remember why?

在负实际利率的环境下，黄金会有什么表现？

What does gold do in a negative real rate environment?

各国央行正在为此做准备。

Central banks are preparing for that.

现在，危险的部分来了。

Now here's the dangerous part.

还记得我之前说的吗？一般来说，如果债券卖家担心别人也在抛售，他们就会卖得更多。

Remember what I said earlier, that generally speaking, the sellers of bonds sell more if they're worried about other people selling too.

所以，收益率曲线控制背后的意图之一，就是安抚市场，告诉大家有一个保证的买家。

So the intention behind yield curve control or one of them is to pacify the market to say there's a guaranteed buyer.

所以抛售没有意义，因为价格不会下跌。

So there's no point in selling because the prices aren't gonna fall.

任何进入市场的东西都会支撑价格。

Anything that does hit the market will support prices.

这就是目标。

That's the goal.

但这是一种微妙的平衡，可能有效，也可能无效。

But it's a fine balance, and it may or may not work.

危险在于，如果它不起作用，如果外国对美国债券的出售没有放缓。

The dangerous part is if it doesn't, if the foreign selling of US bonds doesn't slow down.

现在，在收益率曲线控制的限制下，美联储必须用新的美元购买这些债券。

Now under a yield curve control cap, the Fed must buy those bonds with new dollars.

更多的美元意味着美元走弱，这会让外国人更没有理由持有美国债务。

And more dollars means a weaker dollar, which gives foreigners even less reason to hold US debt.

所以，这个上限可能会阻止出售，也可能将美元缓慢的流失加速成更快的流失。

So the cap might prevent selling, or it could turn a slow drift away from the dollar into a faster one.

这并不意味着美元明年就会崩溃。

Now that doesn't mean the dollar collapses next year.

没有现成的替代品，而且这种转变需要几十年的时间。

There is no ready replacement, and shifts like this take decades.

但全世界确实已经开始用不同的眼光看待美国债务了。

But the world has definitely started treating US debt differently.

它不再像过去那样被视为理所当然、无需多虑的安全资产，而更像是一种风险。

Less like the guaranteed, thoughtless, safe asset it used to be, and more like a bit of a risk.

现在，澳大利亚就尝到了信任崩塌能有多快的滋味。

Now Australia learned how fast trust can break.

2020年3月，澳大利亚央行承诺将三年期利率维持在0.25%，但后来又把这一上限下调至0.1%。

In March 2020, its central bank promised to hold the three year rate at point 25%, and then it cut that cap to point 1%.

2021年底，通胀开始抬头。

In late twenty twenty one, inflation picked up.

交易员们押注这一上限会失守，于是照样卖出。

Traders bet the cap would fail, and they sold anyways.

几天之内，利率就飙升至上限的将近八倍。

Within days, the rate jumped to almost eight times the cap.

央行不再捍卫这一上限，并于2021年11月2日彻底废除了它。

The central bank stopped defending it and scrapped the cap entirely on 11/02/2021.

它曾告诉澳大利亚人，利率会一直保持低位到2024年，但它在2022年5月又开始加息了。

It had told Australians rates would stay low until 2024, but it started raising them again in May 2022.

信誉受损的影响比政策本身更持久，澳大利亚债券从此不再被以同样的眼光看待。

The damage to its credibility outlasted the policy, and Australian bonds have not been perceived the same ever since.

所以有三点需要记住。

So there's three things to remember.

收益率曲线控制意味着美联储创造新货币来购买政府债券，并将利率维持在自己选定的水平，而不是让市场决定。

Yield curve control means the Fed creates new money to buy government bonds and hold interest rates at a level it picks instead of letting the market decide.

对普通人来说，借贷变得更便宜，储蓄则变得更昂贵。

For everyday people, borrowing gets cheaper and saving gets more expensive.

通货膨胀高企，储蓄者悄悄地为政府债务买单。

Inflation runs hot and savers quietly pay down the government's debt.

对全球投资者而言，价值从债券和现金转向无法被印刷的东西，比如黄金，比如大宗商品。

For investors around the world, value shifts away from bonds and cash toward things that can't be printed, like gold, like commodities.

而让美国债务成为世界上最安全资产的信任，开始逐渐消磨。

And the trust that makes The US debt the world's safest asset starts to wear away.

现在美国并没有这么做。

Now America is not doing this today.

但是，面对40万亿美元的债务和一万亿美元的利息账单，这确实是个值得关注的工具。

But with $40,000,000,000,000 in debt and a trillion dollar interest bill, it is the tool to watch.

当市场开始质疑美联储是否会限制利率时，你就会清楚这对你的钱意味着什么。

When markets start asking whether the Fed will cap rates, you'll know exactly what it means for your money.

如果你想为那一刻做好准备，那就来参加我的会议吧。

If you wanna be ready for that moment, then join me at my conference.

加入超过11000名投资者的行列，参加1月24日和25日在温哥华会议中心举行的温哥华资源投资会议。

Join over 11,000 other investors at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, January twenty fourth and twenty fifth at the Vancouver Convention Center.

在这里，投资者、分析师和矿业公司的CEO们会聚在一起，讨论的正是这些——当货币体系发生变化时，钱会怎样，应该拥有什么。

It's where investors and analysts and mining CEOs meet to talk about exactly this, what happens to money and what to own when it changes.

请在vricmedia.com注册，或者点击下面的链接。

Register at vricmedia.com or hit the link below.

如果你喜欢我的内容，我是Jay Martin，这里是The Jay Martin Show。

If you enjoy my content, my name is Jay Martin, and this is The Jay Martin Show.

我每个星期六都会在这里发布内容。

I publish here every single Saturday.

如果你喜欢，帮我个忙。

If you enjoy it, do me a favor.

点赞、订阅，但最重要的是，把这个视频分享给朋友。

Click like, hit subscribe, but most importantly, share this video with a friend.

你认识的某个人需要看到它。

Somebody that you know needs to see it.

希望你喜欢这一集。

I hope you enjoyed this episode.

问你一个实在的问题。

Honest question for you.

关于收益率曲线控制，我漏掉了什么？

What did I miss when it comes to yield curve control?

在评论区告诉我。

Let me know in the comments.

我很期待在评论区看到你。

I'd love to see you down there.

我也很期待1月24日和25日在温哥华见到你。

And I'd love to see you in Vancouver, January twenty fourth and twenty fifth.

我们走吧。

Let's go.

下周见。

See you next week.