成功的“公式”：为首席执行官提供的科学依据建议

欢迎来到杰斯·拉森关于创新与领导力的节目。

Welcome to the Jess Larsen Show on innovation and leadership.

在本期节目中，我非常兴奋地邀请到一位我多年来一直想邀请的著名科学家兼作家，我们很幸运能请到他。

On this episode, I'm really excited to have a very famous scientist author who I've wanted to have on for a number of years, and we were lucky to get him.

阿尔伯特-拉斯洛·巴拉巴西，非常感谢您抽出时间参加我们的节目。

Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, thank you so much for making time for the show.

杰斯，这一定会很有趣。

Jess, it's gonna be fun.

我也这么觉得。

I think so.

你能简单介绍一下你的工作内容吗？

Can you tell people a little bit about what you do at work?

今天我们将会重点讨论你的书《公式》，但你先跟大家聊聊你其他的著作吧？

And we're gonna focus a lot today on your book, The Formula, but why don't you tell people about some of the other publications that that you've done?

当然。

Sure.

我是一名正式的网络科学家，这是一种新兴的科学家类型，意味着我专注于网络如何在自然、社会和技术中形成，比如人们如何通过熟人和职业关系相互连接，细胞中的基因如何通过各种相互作用联系在一起，以及这对疾病意味着什么，乃至大脑中的网络如何导致大脑活动等等。

I'm officially a network scientist, which is a new breed of scientist, meaning that I focus on how networks emerge in nature and society and technology, like how people are connected through their acquaintances and professional relationships, how the genes in our cells are linked together by various interactions and what that means for disease, all the way to kind of the networks in our brain and how that actually leads to brain activity and so on.

因此，我有一个大约25到30人的实验室，专注于网络的数学层面，通常利用大数据和对真实系统的详细描述，来理解它们的组织原理。

So really, I have a lab for about 25, 30 people who focus on the mathematical aspects of networks and typically using big data and detailed description of real systems to understand their organizing principles.

你已获得广泛认可。

You've been widely recognized.

你的TED演讲观看量超过25万次，诸如此类。

Your TED Talk has over 250,000 views, things like this.

我非常期待讨论《公式》这本书，但也许我们可以先从一个前提开始，如果还没读过这本书，你能给听众简单介绍一下吗？

I'm really excited to talk about The Formula, but maybe to begin with, can you give people kind of a premise for the book if they haven't read it yet?

当然可以。

Sure.

大约十年前，我们实验室开始思考一个问题：我们如何将这种数据驱动的方法应用于个人的成功？

So one of the things that we started to do about ten years ago in my lab is to ask, how do we apply this kind of data driven approach to individual success?

最初，我们其实认为网络视角才是最重要的。

And first, actually, we thought that it will be the network angle that is really important.

我们当时想，现在有大量数据正在涌现，尤其是在科学领域，关于人们如何与谁合作、共同的机构有哪些。

And we thought, Hey, there's so much data now emerging, particularly in the science space of how people collaborate with whom, what are the joint institutions.

因此，我们实际上可以构建出非常详细的科学合作网络，这或许能帮助我们理解科学成就是如何产生的。

So we could actually build up very detailed networks of scientific collaboration, and that may help us understand how success emerges in science.

但当我们深入研究这个课题后，很快意识到，A，这个问题比单纯的科学成就要大得多，B，网络只是故事的一部分。

But as we kind of delve into the subject, we soon realize that, A, the problem is much bigger than scientific success, and B, networks are only part of the story.

所以，我手里的这本《公式》作为我的备忘录，它源于我对科学成就在多个学科中如何产生的量化研究。

So the book, The Formula, that I have it here as a cheat sheet for me, it's really born out of my lapsing quantitative investigation of how does really science success emerge in many different disciplines.

特别是，我们在实验室里对科学成就和艺术成就进行了深入研究。

And particularly, we did a very deep dive in my lab into scientific success as well as artistic success.

关于成功，已经出版了大量书籍。

So, lots of books have been written about success.

那这本书与众多其他书籍有何不同？

What distinguishes this from the many others?

我认为，我读过很多关于成功的书，但大多数成功类书籍要么是某人分享自己的个人经历，要么是通过观察十位或一百位成功人士来提炼出成功的共同模式。

And the way I think of I read many books about success, but most success books are either somebody shares their personal experience or somebody distills the patterns that characterize success from, say, looking at 10 or a 100 successful individuals.

从数据科学的角度来看，我对这一点深感忧虑。

And from a data science perspective, I have a deep problem with that.

我之所以对此深感忧虑，是因为我们没有对照组。

And the reason I have a deep problem with that is that we don't have control groups.

让我举个例子。

So let me give an example.

你可能会观察一百位成功人士，发现其中百分之九十都是早上五点开始一天的工作。

You may look at a 100 successful individuals and find out that ninety percent of them start their day at 5AM.

于是你会得出结论：成功的秘诀就是早上五点开始工作。

And you would conclude, okay, the key to success is to start working at 5AM.

但你也会发现，有上千万人早上五点起床，却完全不成功。

But then you would find 10,000,000 individuals who start at 5AM who are not successful at all.

对吧？

Right?

因此，要从科学的角度真正理解成功，你不能只关注成功人士，还必须关注那些身处同一领域但可能并不那么成功的人。

So in order to really understand success from a scientific perspective, you need to have not, you must focus not only on the successful individuals, but you also have to focus on people working in the very same domain who may not be so successful.

所以我们正是这么做的。

So that's exactly what we did.

我们重建了自1900年至今每一位科学家的职业生涯，其中包括几位诺贝尔奖得主，以及许多你从未听说过的普通人，对吧？

We ended up rebuilding the career of every single scientist that worked since 1900 till today, which included a few Nobel Prize winners and many, many individuals you never heard of, Right?

但我们还重建了全球五十万位艺术家的职业生涯，记录了他们的展览情况、与哪些机构合作等等。

But we also rebuilt a career for half a million artists all around the world, where they exhibited, what institutions they engaged with, and so on.

同样，其中也有一些知名艺术家，但更多的是你永远不会听说的普通艺术家。

Once again, having a couple of famous artists among them, but many, many artists you will never heard of.

通过利用这些海量数据，我们的目标是理解那些塑造成功的关键模式。

So by using these massive amounts of data, our goal was to understand what are the patterns that characterize success.

我在《公式》一书中试图以一种即使没有数学背景的人也能读懂的方式提炼这些观点。

And what I tried to do in The Formula is to be distill these ideas in a way that anybody without a math background can read it.

但如果你对数学细节感兴趣，可以查阅我们的研究论文，里面包含了所有数据以及我们得出结论的完整过程。

But those who care about the math background, you get actually look in our research papers where we have all the data and all the details of how we write to the conclusions described.

在我们开始之前，我跟你说过，我已经读过这本书好多遍了。

Well, before we started, I told you that I've read the book multiple times.

其实我什么都不读。

Well, I don't read anything.

我多次在Audible上听过这本书。

I've listened to it on Audible many times.

我让我的员工去读。

I have my staff read it.

我疯狂地把这本书发给各位CEO。

I hand it out to CEOs like crazy.

对你来说，有意思的是，你讲了这么多故事，有战斗机飞行员、运动员，涉及这么多不同的领域。

You know, it's interesting for me, you've got all these stories, fighter pilots, sports athletes, so many different realms.

我觉得你一开始做的一个重要的事，就是把成功定义为社会回馈给你的奖励。

And I think one of the favors you do to begin with is defining success as the rewards the community gives back to you.

因为成功可以有太多不同的定义，比如，如果你是个运动员，成功可能就是赚多少钱、拿到多少代言。

You know, because success could be defined so many As though, like, if you're, you know, if you're an athlete or something, this is, you know, with the dollars, you give back an endorsement.

如果你是个科学家，那你获得多少引用次数？

If this is if you're a scientist, how many citations do you get?

你知道吗，我觉得这是一个非常根本的起点，有助于理解其余的内容，明白我们真正要解决的是什么。

You know, I I feel like that is such a fundamental starting point that helps with understanding the rest of it, knowing that that is what we're solving for.

但对我来说，最让我着迷的是，你如何将社区对你的评价视为对你自身表现的放大器。

But I think for me, what I'm so fascinated about is the way that you crystallized the idea of the community's opinion of you as a multiplier on your own performance.

对我而言，我过去常常把它看作是一种叠加。

And I think for me, so often I had thought about it as an addition.

嘿，如果你有，你的表现如何？你的产品有多好？

Hey, if you've got it, if your performance, how good is your product?

因为这个节目主要聚焦于高增长的CEO和创始人CEO，对吧？

Because this show is largely high growth CEOs, founder CEOs, right?

所以问题就是，你的产品有多好？

So it's like, how good is your product?

你拥有最好的产品吗？

Do you have the best product?

你实现了产品与市场的契合吗？

Do you have product market fit?

这一直都是大家讨论的重点，对吧？

That's always what's getting talked about, right?

你很容易被引导去相信，公关或者别人对你的看法、你所关联的人，这些只是锦上添花的东西，只有当你的产品不够好时，它们才会变得重要得多。

And you get led to believe, know, PR or people's opinion of you or who you're associated with, that's like cute, nice to add ons, and they become much more important if your product isn't any good.

但如果你的产品足够好，你就不用操心这些事了。

But if you have a good enough product, you don't have to worry about all that.

我想请你介入一下，告诉我我哪里想错了。

And I want you to jump in here and tell me how I'm thinking about this wrong.

让我觉得特别有趣的是，你用如此清晰的语言剖析了这种情况：如果你确实有足够可观的业绩，你很可能会获得口碑，而口碑正是那个倍增器。

What's so fascinating to me is how you gave such language to dissect that situation of, if you do have good enough observable performance, you probably will get the word-of-mouth, which is the multiplier.

如果普通客户难以界定你和竞争对手之间的性能差异，那么群体的意见——市场认为哪个产品最好——就会对你的公司能否实现对投资者许下的所有目标产生巨大影响。

And if it's hard for the lay customer to define the difference or the performance difference between you and the competitors, the opinion of the group, what does the market say is the best product, has has such outsized growth on whether you're gonna get all these goals you promised your investors or not.

你该怎么说得更好或者更不同呢？

How how would you say that better or different?

好吧，让我们倒回去看看。

Well, I mean, let's go back.

对吧？

Right?

让我们回到原点，谈谈什么是成功。

And let's go back and talk about what success is.

是吧？

Is, right?

我在写这本书的时候，这一直是个很大的难题，对吧？

And this was a big dilemma when I was writing this book, right?

因为外界对成功的定义太多了。

Because there are so many definitions of success out there.

我想在第一章就澄清一点：这本书里我谈的不是莫的成功定义，也就是内在的成功。

And one of the things I tried to get out from chapter one is that I don't talk in this book about Moe's definition of success, which is the internal success.

对吧？

Right?

所以让我们先把这个放一边。

So let's get that out of the way.

对吧？

Right?

你知道吗，我刚好准时赶到面试，这本身就可以成为我的一种衡量标准、一种满足感，也是一种成功。

You know, just the fact that I made it in time for the interview could be actually a measure or a satisfaction and a measure of success for me.

但这是我的内在成功。

But that is my internal success.

这非常合理。

That's very valid.

你每天都需要有内在的成功和成就，才能让自己感觉良好。

You got to have your internal successes and wins on a daily basis to feel good in your skin.

但这本书讲的不是这个。

But this is not what this book is about.

对吧？

Right?

之所以这不是这本书的主题，是因为当我们开始探讨成功时，我们问：成功有哪些不同的衡量标准？

And the reason why this is not is that when we started to kind of look at success, we said, well, what are the different measures of success?

你自己刚才也说了，这取决于你所处的位置。

And you just yourself said, it depends on where you are.

如果你在做生意，也许成功就是金钱，也许是市场份额。

If you are in a business, maybe it's money, maybe it's market share.

如果你是科学家，可能是引用次数。

If you're a scientist, it may be citation.

如果你是音乐人，那就是销量和来听你演唱会的人数等等。

If you're a musician, it's sales and how many people come to your concerts and so on and so forth.

我们的目标是探究：这种成功标准如何与你的表现相关联？

And then our goal was to connect, how does that success measure connect to your performance?

而正是在这里，我们第一次有了某种洞察、领悟或与现实的碰撞：表现和成功究竟如何相互关联？

And that's where we had the first kind of insight or realization or confrontation with reality, that how do performance and success relate to each other?

因此，我在书中对它的定义是：表现是你所做的，而成功是你所做之事被他人如何看待。

So the way I define it in the book is that performance is what you do and success is what is being perceived of that performance.

它是否被观察到了？

Is it observed?

它被认可了吗？

Is it acknowledged?

最终，它得到回报了吗？

And eventually, is it rewarded?

换句话说，你的表现关乎你自己，但你的成功关乎我们——整个社群。

In other words, your performance is about you, but your success is about us, the community.

让我稍微拆解一下，因为这确实是关键。

And let me break it down a little bit, because this is really the key.

如果我们没搞清楚这一点，我们接下来讨论的其他一切都不重要了。

If we don't get this right, nothing else that we talk about really matters.

对吧？

Right?

所以，真正的大问题是，我们在早期学校里学到的是，你必须要有表现。

So really the big issue here is that we learn very much in early school that you got to have performance.

你去学校是为了学习数学、音乐，或者你想要做的任何事情，对吧？

You go to school to learn math or music or whatever you want to do, right?

你去体育课学习跑步和其他技能。

You go to the sports class to learn how to run and everything.

整个求学过程中，一切都围绕着表现、表现和表现。

And all of that throughout the schooling is about performance, performance, and performance.

据说你必须擅长某件事，对吧？

The claim is that you got to be good at something, right?

不管那是什么。

Whatever that is.

这绝对是必要的。

And that is absolutely necessary.

我对这本书的理解，从来不是关于如何把一个没有表现的人变成成功人士。

And the way I think about this book is never about how to take someone without a performance and turn it into a successful individual.

你必须有表现。

You must have performance.

但这就足够了吗？

But is that enough?

我在学校学到的是，你可能也一样，所有企业里的人也都明白：如果你擅长某件事，你就会成功。

And what I learned in school, and you probably did and everybody in all the businesses, is that if you're good at something, you will be successful.

而这一点正是当前正在被证实的关联。

And that's what the connection that is being proved in this particular.

而这一点并不简单，因为当你查看数据时，会发现有很多人擅长某件事，但只有极少数人获得认可或成功。

And the reason why this is not so trivial, because when you look at the data, it turns out there are lots of people who are good at something and the very few get acknowledged or get the success for it.

所以这本书实际上一直在探究表现与成功之间的关系。

So really the book is always kind of trying to probe what's the connection between performance and success.

简单的数学逻辑就是这样。

And the simple math is like that.

简单的数学表明，成功是很容易衡量的。

The simple math comes up to the fact that success is very measurable.

成功表现为金钱、引用次数、知名度等等。

It's money, it's citations, it's visibility, and so on.

但在大多数情况下，表现却不是这样。

And in most cases, performance is not.

这种表现难以衡量而成功却极易量化的双重性，正是导致我们对成功人士产生种种挫败感与兴奋感的根源。

And that duality of unknown performance and very measurable success is really that kind of leads to all the frustration and all the exciting things that we see about successful individuals.

我觉得这一点对我特别有帮助，因为我经常和一些CEO朋友聊天，或者当我邀请一些名人做节目嘉宾时，节目结束后，他们就会问我：‘我该不该写本书？’

Well, I think the thing that is so helpful about that to me that I'm constantly talking to CEO friends or, you know, I'll have some famous guests on the show, and then it'll end, and then they'll be talking to me or like, oh, should I write a book?

我该不该做个播客？

Should I have a podcast?

杰斯，或者类似的事情。

Jess, or these kind of things.

我经常向他们提起你，是因为我特别喜欢你关于战斗机飞行员的研究，那个据说在二战期间击落飞机数量远超红男爵的法国人——你记得是这样吧？

The reason that I bring you up to them a lot of the times is I think I love your story of the research on the fighter pilots and how there's this, I wanna say French guy, correct me, who took down many more planes than the Red Baron during World War II.

但他的贡献却未被认可。

And yet his performance wasn't recognized.

他没有获得相应的声誉，因为在当时，盟军并不需要他作为战争宣传的符号，而德国人却非常需要红男爵。

He didn't have the reputation of it because in that case the Allies didn't need him as war, as propaganda, where the Germans really needed the Red Baron.

于是他们大力宣传他，让所有人都知道了他，以至于几十年后，他的名字还出现在史努比的漫画里。

And so they propped him up, everybody found out about him to the point that he's in Snoopy cartoons however many decades later.

对吧？

Right?

对我来说，这揭示了一个观点：仅仅表现优秀是不够的。

And to me, it's this idea that, like, it exposes performance isn't enough.

我认为，许多专业人士、更严肃的商人，往往对那些擅长建立声誉却缺乏实质内容的人嗤之以鼻。

And, I think so many of the professionals, the more serious business people, they look down their nose so much on the people who got really good at building a reputation but it's a little bit substance free.

他们绩效低下，却懂得结交对的人，对此类人他们非常反感，生怕与之牵连，结果反而完全忽视了自身声誉的建设。

Low performance, but they manage to be And friends with the right they're so annoyed with those folks and trying not to be associated with them that then they don't do any work on building the reputation.

我甚至想对这一点提出质疑：那些擅长社交的人，并不是什么都没做。

I would even challenge you on that, that those people who, let's say, are good at networking, that they don't do anymore.

我不太确定这一点。

I'm not so sure about that.

这本身也是一种技能，对吧？

That is also a skill, right?

而正如你所说，我们可能会选择，也可能选择不投入精力去经营这种关系。

And which we choose or exactly how you said, you may choose or not choose to invest into data.

对吧？

Right?

但让我们来剖析一下，为什么我们对缺乏表现或 perceived 的表现和成功感到如此沮丧。

But let's go and take it apart of why are we so frustrated about the lack of performance or the perceived lack of performance and success.

而问题在于，表现是非常非常难以衡量的。

And the issue with that is that performance is very, very hard to measure.

对吧？

Right?

这并不是说你无法区分某人擅长某事还是不擅长某事。

And this is not to say that you cannot distinguish somebody that is good at something versus somebody who is weak at something.

对吧？

Right?

在大多数领域，这很容易做到。

That's easy to do in most areas.

对吧？

Right?

问题是，在大多数领域，我们没有秒表。

The problem is that in most areas, we don't have a stopwatch.

如果你是个跑步者，你有一个衡量表现的标准——你跑得多快，而我们有非常非常可重复的方法来测量这一点。

That is if you're a runner, you have one measure of performance, how fast you run, and we have very, very reproducible way of measuring that.

因此，这正是我在书中展示的：在个人运动中，表现与成功之间存在一对一的对应关系。

And hence, and this is why I show in the book, when it comes to individual sports, there's a one to one correspondence between performance and success.

你跑得越快，作为跑步者的认可度就越高，收入也会随之增加，一切都会随之而来。

The faster you run, the more acknowledged you are as a runner, the more money you get and everything comes with that.

作家的秒表是什么？

What's the stopwatch for a writer?

教师的秒表是什么？

What's the stopwatch for a teacher?

医生的秒表是什么？

What's the stopwatch for a doctor?

因此，在大多数职业中，我们实际上缺乏一种单一维度的表现衡量标准。

So in most professions, we lack actually a one dimensional measure of performance.

而这正是关键所在，因为表现其实是多维度的，对吧？

And that's really the key because performance is really multi dimensional, right?

即使是医生，也不只是看你诊断疾病的能力有多强，还包括你将诊断与治疗方案匹配的能力。

Even for a doctor, it's not only how good you are at diagnosing disease, but also how good you are of matching that diagnosis with cures.

而且甚至更为重要的是，你如何对待病人，对吧？

And even very, very important, how do you deal with the patient, right?

你具备哪些技能？

What are the skills that you have?

因为治疗某种疾病不仅仅是开个药片那么简单，而实际上是一个整体性的过程。

Because treating something is not just simply take this pill, but it's actually like a holistic process.

所以在大多数领域，别说我当老师了，你到底需要多少种绩效指标才能真正把工作做好。

So in most areas, and I don't even get me started as a teacher, how many measures of performance you should have to really do your job right.

因此，在大多数领域，我们缺乏单一维度的、真正纯粹的绩效衡量标准。

So what happens in most areas is that we don't have a one dimensional or any kind of really pure performance measure.

那么问题来了，人与人之间确实存在差异，对吧？

So then the question is, but we have differences between people, right?

你身边有很多优秀的老师，也有很多优秀的医生，同时也不乏水平一般的医生。

And you have lots of great teachers, lots of great doctors coexisting with not so great doctors.

那么，在那些无法准确衡量其工作表现的领域，究竟是什么让某些人成为超级明星呢？

And so how does it come that somebody becomes a superstar in those areas where you don't have a way of measuring what they do?

对吧？

Right?

这本书的核心理念正是：当绩效越难衡量时，网络的作用就越突出，也越能推动成功。

And this is kind of the dream of the book is that the less performance is measurable, the more the networks take away and they drive the success.

然后我们可以探讨一下，这个网络到底意味着什么，它是如何运作的。

And then we can dwyer if you want to what this network means and how does it work.

但这里存在一种集体与个体之间的经济关系。

But there is this economy of the collective versus the individual.

个体绩效越难衡量，集体和社群在定义你的成功中所起的作用就越大。

And the less the individual performance is measurable, the bigger role the collective and the community has of defining your success.

成功。

Success.

是的，这很有道理。

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

那么，也许我们可以探讨一下那些客观上表现更出色、却更受业内人士认可而非其市场或社区普通客户认可的个人。

Maybe the place to take it then is when you think about individuals who have objectively produced higher performance that might be more recognized by insiders than by the general customers of their market, their community.

他们感到不满，就像我举的那个例子。

And they're annoyed, like the example I brought up.

我的商业地产基金正在建造这些短期租赁度假胜地，就像Airbnb那样，对吧？

My commercial real estate fund, we're building these short term rental resorts, like Airbnb's, right?

现在有一个YouTuber，他的视频有数十万甚至上百万的观看量，他在教授如何成为Airbnb投资者时，决定在计算投资回报率时忽略土地成本。

And there's currently a YouTuber right now who has hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of thousands of views, and the way he teaches his classes about how to be an Airbnb investor, he he has decided to not include the cost of land when he calculates a return on investment.

你知道，如果从投资实践的角度来看，证券委员会会以欺诈罪起诉你。

You know, something that if he has put in an investment practice perspective, the securities commission would charge you with fraud.

对吧？

Right?

但这是YouTube，当有人在他的YouTube评论中提出质疑时，他只是为自己辩护。

But it's just YouTube, and when anybody brings it up in his YouTube comments, he just defends himself.

对我来说，我只是为那些听他讲课的人感到难过。

And for me, it's like, I just feel bad for the people who are listening to him.

对吧？

Right?

而他之所以成功，是因为他可以在YouTube的描述中写道，比如600%的投资回报率。

And he's winning because he gets to put, you know, on his YouTube descriptions, he gets to say, you know, 600% rate of return.

嗯，没错。

Well, yeah.

如果你忽略掉大部分投资成本，回报率看起来确实会是那样，对吧？

If you leave out a bunch of the investment, the return would look like that, wouldn't it?

对吧？

Right?

好吧。

Okay.

现在，这实际上正是我想说的那个公式并不涉及的领域，对吧？

Now, this would be actually the area that I would say that formula is not about, right?

因为我会直接按你所说的来理解，对吧？

Because the way, and I'm going to just take you on face value, right?

这明显是收割和奶油，对吧？

This is clearly a slaughter and cream, right?

所以这并不是现实。

So this is not reality.

所以这不是真实的业绩，而是虚构的业绩。

So it's not a true performance, but it's a made up performance.

但确实还有很多其他领域存在真实的业绩。

So but but there are many other areas where there is true performance.

我得打断你一下。

I'm gonna interrupt you for a sec.

我想强调的是他在YouTube上的表现。

The point I'm trying to bring up is his YouTube performance.

他在YouTube上的关注度非常高，因为那些不懂行、无法识别他计算漏洞的观众，根本不知道如何评估他的投资表现。

His his attention on YouTube in that performance is extremely well because the the the unlearned people watching YouTube that don't recognize how flawed his calculations are, don't know how to evaluate his performance his investment performance.

所以他的YouTube表现非常疯狂，尽管他的投资表现可能并不配得上这种关注。

And so his YouTube performance is crazy even though his investing performance probably doesn't deserve it.

但我反而会倒过来看。

But I I would I would flip it the other way around.

对吧？

Right?

这跟你没关系，而是关于你。

So it's not about him, but it's about you.

对吧？

Right?

因为你可能会说，我的计算其实才是正确的。

Because you say, I have actually the right calculation.

那为什么我得不到像他那样的认可呢？

So why don't I get acknowledged at the same level as he is?

我认为这才是真正的困境——不是他如何获得这些关注，而是为什么我们社会不给予那些讲真话、有真实表现的人与其成就相称的认可。

And I think that is the real dilemma, not of how he achieves that, but why don't we as a society acknowledge everybody who tells the truth and has the right performance at the level that is proportionate to their performance.

而且显然你提到了自己，这是一个多维度的问题。

And obviously you pointed to yourself, this is a multidimensional problem.

他有的是YouTube上的表现，而不是金融表现，对吧？

He has a YouTube performance and not a financial performance, right?

他实际上是在这个特定问题上逐渐崛起。

That, that, he's, he is kind of, raising in this particular issue.

但这确实是困境，对吧？

But that is really the dilemma, right?

困境在于，少数几个人从所有拥有表现、都说真话、都说对事的人中被挑了出来。

The dilemma is that a few individuals get pulled out from this pool of people who all have the performance, performance and they all say the truth and they all say the right things.

我们把他们视为超级明星，而其他人则被抛在了后面。

And we kind of acknowledge them as superstars and the rest are kind of left behind.

这就是网络效应。

And that's the network effect.

在我看来，网络效应在艺术领域表现得最为明显。

And to my mind, the network effect is the cleanest in the art space.

我认为这一点很清楚，而且在我们开始这次对话之前，你提到过你最初想成为一名艺术家。

And the reason I think it's a clear and you mentioned before we started this conversation that you wanted to be an artist as you started out your career.

那后来发生了什么？

So what happened there?

我当时在上人体素描课，我的导师——现在仍然是我的商业伙伴，已经二十一年了，在投资基金里——他的话还在我耳边回响：‘杰斯，你有没有意识到，如果你足够富有，你就可以为你想画的任何电影作画，因为那些电影会变成你的电影，而不是为别人的电影画画？’

I was drawing I was in figure drawing class, and my my mentor, who's now my business partner, still twenty one years later in the investment fund, his words were ringing in my ears where he said, Jess, do you realize if you got rich enough, you could draw for whatever movies you want because they'd be your movies instead of drawing for other people's movies?

我当时坐在人体素描课上，听着一位非常富有的人说：‘如果你想有一份好工作，你就需要接受良好的教育，获得一个好学位，从而找到一份好工作。’

And I was sitting there in figure drawing class listening to this this book from very wealthy man who said, if you want a good job, you're gonna need a good education so you can get a good degree so you can get a good job.

如果你想真正、真正地富有，你最需要的是勇气。

If you wanna be really, really wealthy, what you mostly need is guts.

其他那些东西固然不错，但你必须有勇气。

Those other things are nice, but you need the guts.

于是我放下铅笔，摘下随身听，给未婚妻打了电话，问她是否愿意在期末考试期间结婚，因为我打算辞职了。

And so I sat my pencil down, took my Walkman off, called my fiancee, asked her if she wanted to get married during finals week because I was quitting.

然后我们搬到了加利福尼亚，成为创业者。

And we moved to California to be entrepreneurs.

天哪。

Jeez.

这是个好故事。

That's a good story.

所以，你知道，显然你有那份胆识。

So so and and, you know, and clearly, you had the guts.

完美。

Perfect.

我也一开始想成为一名雕塑家。

And I also started out wanting to become a sculptor.

那是在特兰西瓦尼亚和罗马尼亚。

That was in Transylvania and Romania.

我很快意识到，在共产主义制度下，成为雕塑家几乎是不可能的，因为大学里只有五个名额。

Soon realized that it was virtually possible under communism to become a sculptor because it was only five spots at the university.

于是我选择了 easier 的路，最终成为了一名核物理学家。

And so I chose the easy way out and I became a nuclear physicist eventually.

但我对艺术有一种天然的亲近感和兴趣，所以我们也在艺术领域有所侧重。

But I had this kind of affinity and interest in art, and so we also focus in the art space.

而艺术领域对我来说尤其有趣，对吧？

And the art space is particularly interesting for me, right?

因为当我拿着一件艺术品时，它到底是一幅画，还是一块玻璃？

Because is this thing while I'm holding an artwork or it's a glass?

对吧？

Right?

这完全取决于上下文。

And it totally depends on the context.

对吧？

Right?

如果你看到它放在我桌上，里面甚至还有水，那几分钟前它就纯粹是个水杯。

If you see it here on my desk and there's even water in this, it will say a few minutes ago, then it's purely a glass.

对吧？

Right?

但如果你在MoMA的展柜里看到它，对吧？

If you however see it under, in the box, in in the MoMA, right?

下面还标注着著名艺术家的名字，那它就成了艺术品。

With the famous artist name under it, then it's mortals.

所以问题来了，你知道，你怎么去评估当代艺术的价值？当你无法通过观察作品本身来判断它的价值时，成功又是如何产生的？

So, so the question is, how does, you know, like, how do you value particularly contemporary art and how does success emerge when you cannot look at the object itself and decide what's its value?

你之前也提到过，有些展览里，你知道的，一件作品是7美元还是700万美元？

And you yourself said in the earlier that, that there are these shows where, you know, like, is it $7 or 7,000,000?

对。

Right.

人们根本分不清差别。

And people cannot make the difference.

这就引出了一个问题：当没有可衡量的绩效时，艺术中的成功是如何产生的？

And the reason, so, so that kind of raised the question, how does success emerge in art when there is no measurable performance?

因此，我们通过获取这些数据中心的数据展开研究，这些数据涵盖了五十万位艺术家的职业生涯，最终我们探索了：一个人究竟是如何成为著名艺术家的？

And so we went after that by getting access to these data centers that had half a million artists' career, and we ended up kind of exploring how do you become a famous artist really?

而你是通过机构实现这一点的。

And you do so through institutions.

这里的机构包括画廊和博物馆，它们是营利性和非营利性的空间，最终会展出你的作品。

Institutions here are galleries and museums, where nonprofit and for profit spaces that eventually exhibit your work.

通过多次展览，价值逐渐积累。

Through the multiple exhibitions, value is built up.

迟早，你会进入拍卖市场，届时也会有可衡量的财务成功。

And sooner or later, you will also get in the auction market and there's something measurable in terms of financial success as well.

但关键在于，正是这些机构真正塑造了艺术家。

But the key is that it's the institutions that really kind of create the artist.

因此，我们决定绘制出促成这一现象的机构网络。

So we said, let's map out the institutional network that is responsible for that.

我们通过收集所有机构——从博物馆到画廊——来实现这一点。

And we did so by by collecting all institutions like a museum to gallery.

例如，如果一位艺术家首先在画廊展出，接下来就会在博物馆展出。

If, say a gallery exhibited first in the, an artist exhibited in the gallery, next is shown in the museum.

那么，为什么你要把展示同一位艺术家的机构联系起来呢？

And why would you connect actually institutions if they show the same artist?

因为如果它们展示同一位艺术家，说明它们对当代艺术有着相似的见解。

Well, because if they show the same artist, they have a similar vision of what contemporary art is.

对吧？

Right?

而且它们能接触到相同的艺术家，这一点也不简单。

And they have access to the same artists, which is also not trivial.

对吧？

Right?

我想让它们办一个安迪·沃霍尔的展览，但可能根本拿不到那些作品。

I want them to do an Andy Warhol show, may not get the works to do that.

对吧？

Right?

诸如此类。

And so on.

然后，这个由数以万计、大约两万家全球各地的机构和博物馆相互连接而成的美丽网络，最终形成了这样的结果。

And then the end result of this beautiful network of like tens of thousands, like 20,000 institutions, museums all over the world connected to each other.

这个网络最令人惊叹的地方在于，一旦我把艺术家放入这个网络中，比如，他们最早会出现在哪些展览中？

And what was amazing about this network is that once I placed artists on this network, say, what are the first exhibits?

我们能够预测这位艺术家是会提升其所属机构的声望，还是会停留在原地，甚至下滑。

We were able to predict whether he or she will move out in prestige of the institutions or will stay where he or she was or even go down.

而且它的预测准确度极高。

And it was incredibly accurate.

我们能非常精确地判断这些艺术家是否会在二十年后拥有事业前景，我们是怎么做到的？

We could really precisely tell whether these artists will have a career twenty years later Why or will be could we do that?

因为正是这个网络——机构网络——在引导着艺术家，而你在其中的位置，真正定义了你是谁。

Because it is the network, the institutional network that leads the artists, and your position in that really kind of defines who you are.

正是这个网络中的连接关系，决定了你未来的走向，就像在商业世界里，上对学校、建立正确的人脉，实际上能为你打开职业机会；如果你善加利用，就可能成为成功的企业家，或实现你想要的任何目标。

And it is the links on this network that really kind of determine your future trajectory in the same way, say in the business world, going to the right schools and building the right network up may actually open you professional opportunities that if you use right, you know, you could become a successful businessman or whatever you want to be.

对吧？

Right?

但艺术领域特别之处在于，我们能够绘制出促成这种成功的精确网络，并且我们确实取得了成效。

So, but what is special about the art space is that we could map out the precise network creates this success in the art space, and we were able to be productive.

现在，抛开艺术不说，对吧？

Now, forget art, right?

同样的事情实际上也发生在大多数其他领域。

The same thing actually happens in most other areas.

真正对个人成功起关键作用的是人和机构，而机构往往就是由人组成的。

It is people and institutions, and often institutions are people, that really play a key role in driving the success of an individual.

如果我要回到最初的说法，它们在观察你的表现、认可它，然后通过提供机会让你能够利用自己的表现取得成功方面，发挥着关键作用。

And if I want to go back to the original language, they play a key role in observing your performance, acknowledging it, and then giving you opportunities by which you can actually use your performance in a way to be successful with it.

从某种意义上说，我们大多数人其实都是艺术家，对吧？

And most of us in some way are artists, right?

因为我们的表现非常难以客观衡量。

Because our performance is very, very difficult to measure objectively.

所以，我在学校学到的观念，尤其是艺术家们经常思考的：我只要专心做好自己的工作，迟早会被发现——这个想法在当今世界似乎行不通了，对吧？

So that idea that I learned in school, and particularly artists think a lot about, all I have to do is just do my work, and then sooner or later, will be discovered this is what doesn't seem to be working in the current world, right?

所以是的，你必须是个优秀的艺术家。

So yes, you have to be a good artist.

是的，你必须有出色的表现。

Yes, you must have performance.

但如果你仅止于此，那还不足以取得成功。

But if you stop there, that's not enough for success.

你还需要认清那些在你的领域中促成成功的力量和网络。

You also need to acknowledge what are the forces and the networks that are responsible for the success in your space.

而这取决于具体情况。

And that depends.

艺术不同于商业，也不同于医学等等。

Art is different from business and is different from medicine and so on.

然后，如果你真的想在自己所从事的领域取得成功，你就需要掌握这个网络，认可它，并与之互动。

And then you need to master that network, acknowledge it, engage with it if you want to be really successful at what you do.

所以，这个概念对我来说非常有帮助。

So again, this concept was so helpful to me.

这就像八二法则，也就是里奇·科什·帕累托原则，意思是有一小部分因素能产生巨大的影响。

It's like that eighty twenty principle, Richer Kosh Pareto principle, the idea that there's these small number of things that make a huge difference.

就像你所说的，很多人表现不错，但他们缺少了关键的一点——他们拥有一辆顶级跑车。

And it's like so many people, like you said, have good performance, but they have they're missing that key it's like they've got a great sports car.

只是没有足够的汽油能开得很远。

They just don't have enough gasoline to get very far.

这些网络就是汽油。

We're like, those networks are the gasoline.

对吧？

Right?

我在商业领域观察时会想，如果你是首席执行官，你参加哪些会议？

And I I look in business and, like, what conferences are if you're a CEO, what conferences are you speaking out?

有哪些媒体刊物在报道你？

What media publications are writing about you?

别人在领英上怎么评价你？

What are other people saying about you on LinkedIn?

谁在谈论购买过你的产品以及他们的体验如何？

Who's talking about having purchased from you and what their experience was?

这些网络有着巨大的影响力。

Those networks have such an influence.

所以，

So,

不知道你会怎么想

don't know what you'll think

关于这一点，我实践你所讲知识的方式就是这个播客。

about this, but my version of trying to implement your knowledge there is this podcast.

我通过先主动帮助别人来构建自己的人脉网络。

I engineered my own network of people to associate with by trying to scratch their back first.

嘿，来我的节目，谈谈你那家知名公司吧。

Hey, come on my show and talk about your famous company.

来我的节目，聊聊你正在做的事情吧。

Talk about come on my show and talk about what you're doing.

随着时间推移，当我接触到越来越有影响力的人时，这就像复利一样，持续不断地上升。

And over time, as I got higher and higher profile people, it's like compound interest where, like, it just keeps going up.

谁愿意来参加节目？

Who's willing to come on the show?

比如萨马拉·科恩，她为贝莱德管理着六万亿美元的资产。

You know, Samara Cohen who manages $6,000,000,000,000 for BlackRock.

对吧？

Right?

还有像丹尼·格洛弗这样的电影明星。

And movie stars like Danny Glover.

前两周或者上周，我们邀请了凯文·贝肯的妻子基拉·塞奇威克来参加节目。

Week before last or last week, we had, you know, Kevin Bacon's wife, Keira Keira Sedgwick, on the show.

对吧？

Right?

这挺有趣的，因为我发现我几个迷你系列节目的联合主持人，其实是我最好的朋友之一。

It it's funny because I saw one of my cohosts for a bunch of my miniseries is one of my best friends.

她的名字是林赛·哈德利。

Her name is Lindsey Hadley.

她有一个很棒的播客，叫《林赛·哈德利播客》。

She's got a great podcast called the Lindsey Hadley podcast.

我们一起主持。

We cohost together.

我看到这个简直惊呆了。

And I saw this like crazy.

她曾经为我工作。

She used to work for me.

十四年前我们创办慈善组织‘儿童救援’时，她曾是我的员工。

She used to be my employee when we started our charity fourteen years ago called child rescue.

她表现得非常出色，之后又去做了更大的事，为约翰·传奇和金属乐队等顶级艺人筹办慈善演唱会。

She did absolutely great and then went on to bigger and better things, throwing concerts with John Legend and Metallica and biggest bands for charity.

突然间，她开始为亿万富翁和名人提供慈善方面的建议。

And all of a sudden, she's like advising billionaires and celebrities on their charities.

所以其他人都想和她扯上关系，因为她和那些大人物有联系。

So then everybody else wants to associate with her because she's associated with them.

她自己并不是名人，但在我们的朋友圈里却像个大明星，因为她只隔了一层关系——你知道的，她为凯文·贝肯做慈善，而这位亿万富翁借给她价值四千万美元的城堡，还和杰拉德·巴特勒一起办慈善活动。

Without actually being a celebrity, she is like a major celebrity in our friend groups because she's one degree of written, you know, because, you know, because she does this work for Kevin Bacon because, you know, this billionaire lends her his $40,000,000 castle and they have a a charity event with Gerard Butler.

对吧？

Right?

于是我回答：没错。

And so I was like, yep.

我就决定自己创造一个。

I'm just gonna invent my own.

我想我们现在已经做了840期了。

And so we're, I think, 840 episodes in.

有趣的是，这周四我们将在比佛利山庄办一场派对。

And it's funny because this Thursday, I we're doing a party in Beverly Hills.

一位亿万富翁正在为我们主办这场活动。

A billionaire's hosting for us.

那里会有好几位亿万富翁。

We've got multiple billionaires there.

会有好几位电影明星。

We've got multiple movie stars.

还有风险投资家，那些打造了上亿美元公司的家伙。

We've got venture capitalists, guys who built $100,000,000 companies.

大概有40个人会聚在一起，如果我不是主办这场派对，我根本不可能进去。

There's about 40 of us getting together, and there's no way I could get into that party if I wasn't throwing it.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do know I mean?

这不是我想象的那种情况。

Like, this is not I see.

这可不是我的滑雪伙伴或者艺术学院的朋友。

This is not like my snowboard buddies or my friends from art school.

我平时根本没机会和这些人混在一起。

Like, I don't normally get to hang out.