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乔·罗根播客。
Joe Rogan podcast.
快来看看。
Check it out.
《乔·罗根体验》。
The Joe Rogan experience.
展示我的一天。
Showing my day.
白天黑夜都在听乔·罗根播客。
Joe Rogan podcast by night, all day.
你好，杰克逊。
Hello, Jackson.
嗨，乔。
Hi, Joe.
很高兴又见到你。
Good to see you again.
我们刚才在讨论的是，那是我们第一次交谈，还是在SpaceX时才是我们第一次交谈？
We were just talking about was that the first time we ever spoke, or did was the first time we spoke at at SpaceX?
SpaceX。
SpaceX.
SpaceX那次是第一次。
SpaceX is the first time.
就是你给埃隆那个疯狂的人工智能芯片的时候。
When you were giving Elon that crazy AI chip.
对。
Right.
DGX Spark。
DGX Spark.
是啊。
Yeah.
哦，那可是个大场面。
Oh, that was a big moment.
能在现场真是太疯狂了。
That was a huge crazy to be there.
我当时就像在看着这些科技奇才们交流信息，而你递给他那个疯狂的设备。
I was, like, watching these wizards of tech, like, exchange information and and what you're giving him this crazy device.
你知道吗？
You know?
还有一次是我在后院射箭时，突然接到特朗普的电话，他正和你在一起。
And then the other time was I was shooting arrows in my backyard and randomly get this call from Trump, and he's hanging out with you.
特朗普总统打来电话，然后我打给了你。
President Trump called, and I called you.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们当时正在谈论你。
It's just We were talking about you.
确实如此
Did so
就是我们正在谈论你，他刚才在说要在前院搞的美国UFC赛事。
it's just We're talking about you he was talking about The US UFC thing he was gonna do in his front yard.
是啊。
Yeah.
然后他掏出来。
And he pulls out.
他是詹森，看看这个设计。
He's Jensen, look at this design.
他对此非常自豪。
He's so proud of it.
我就问，你要在白宫前草坪上打比赛？
And I go, you're gonna have a fight in the front lawn in the White House?
他说，对啊。
He goes, yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
你会来的。
You're gonna come.
这将会非常棒。
This is gonna be awesome.
他正在向我展示他的设计，以及它有多美。
And he's showing me his design and how beautiful it is.
然后他不知怎么地提到了你的名字。
And he goes and and somehow, your name comes up.
他问，你认识乔吗？
He goes, do you know Joe?
我说，认识。
And I said, yeah.
我要上他的播客节目。
I'm gonna be on his podcast.
他说，我们给他打个电话吧。
He's let's call him.
他就像个孩子一样。
He's like a kid.
我知道。
I know.
我们给他打电话吧。
Let's call him.
所以他就像个79岁的老小孩。
It's so he's like a 79 year old kid.
他太不可思议了。
He's so incredible.
是啊。
Yeah.
他是个怪人。
He's an odd guy.
就是很与众不同。
Just very different.
你知道吗？
You know?
就像，你对他所期待的，与人们对他的印象截然不同，而且作为总统也非常与众不同。
Like, the what you'd expect from him, very different than what people think of him, and also just very different as a president.
一个会突然打电话或发短信给你的人。
A guy who just calls you or texts you out of the blue.
还有，他发短信时，如果你用的是安卓手机，信息就发不过去。
Also, he makes when you he texts you, have you an Android, so it won't go through with you.
但用我的iPhone时，他会把短信字体调大。
But with my iPhone, he makes the text go big.
比如，知道吗，美国又受到尊重了。
Like, know, USA is respected again.
就像，全是大写字母，还会把文字放大。
Like, all caps and it makes the the the text enlarge.
这有点荒谬。
It's kinda ridiculous.
嗯，这位101号特朗普总统确实与众不同。
Well, the the one zero one Trump president Trump is very different.
他确实让我感到意外。
He he surprised me.
首先，他是个极其出色的倾听者。
First of all, he's an incredibly good listener.
几乎我对他说过的每句话，他都记得。
Almost everything I've ever said to him, he's remembered.
是啊。
Yeah.
人们不了解。
People don't.
他们只想看关于他的负面报道或负面评价。
They only wanna look at negative stories about him or negative narratives about him.
要知道，谁都有不顺心的时候。
You know, you can catch anybody on a bad day.
比如，他做的很多事情我觉得他不应该那么做。
Like, there's a lot of things he does where I don't think he should do.
比如，我觉得他不该对记者说'安静的小猪'这种话。
Like, I don't think he should say to a report reporter, quiet piggy.
这确实挺荒谬的。
Like, that's pretty ridiculous.
不过客观来说也挺好笑的。
Also, objectively funny.
我是说，发生在她身上真是不幸。
I mean, it's unfortunate that it happened to her.
我不希望这种事发生在她身上，但这确实很滑稽。
I wouldn't want that to happen to her, but it was funny.
总统做出这种事简直荒谬。
Just ridiculous that the president does that.
我真希望他没这么做。
I wish he didn't do that.
但除此之外，他这个人挺有意思的。
But other than that, like, he's he's an interesting guy.
就像，他身上糅合了许多不同的特质。
Like, he's a lot of different things wrapped up into one person.
你懂吧？
You know?
要知道，他的魅力或者说天才之处就在于他心口如一。
You know, part of part of his charm well, part of his genius is just he he says what's on his mind.
没错。
Yes.
这简直像是反政客的做派
And Which is like an anti politician in
在很多方面都是。
a lot of ways.
所以你明白他想的确实就是他真实的想法，而我接受人们相信他所相信的。
So you know what's on his mind is really what's on his mind, which And I take people what he believes.
我也是这样做的。
I I do I do that too.
有些人宁愿被欺骗。
Some people would rather be lied to.
是啊。
Yeah.
但我欣赏他直言不讳的特质。
But but I I like the fact that he's telling you what's on his mind.
几乎每次他解释事情时，你都能感受到他对美国的热爱，以及他想为美国做些什么。
Almost every time he explains something and he says something, he starts with his you could tell his love for America, what he wants to do for America.
他的所有想法都非常务实且充满常识性，逻辑性很强。
And everything that he thinks through is very practical and very common sense, and, you know, it's very logical.
我还记得第一次见到他的情景。
And I still remember the first time I I met him.
所以这次见面之前我完全不认识他。
And so this was I I'd never known him never met him before.
秘书打来电话，我们在政府刚成立时就见面了。
And secretary called, and we met right before right at the beginning of the administration.
他说他告诉我特朗普总统重视的是美国本土制造业。
He said he told me what was important to president Trump that that United States manufactures onshore.
这对总统来说非常重要，因为这关系到国家安全。
And that was really important to him because because it's important to national security.
他要确保我国的关键核心技术在美国本土生产，我们要实现再工业化并重振制造业，因为这关系到就业问题。
He wants to make sure that that the important critical technology of our nation is built in The United States and that we reindustrialize and get good at manufacturing again because it's important for jobs.
这听起来就是常识。
It just seems like common sense.
对吧？
Right?
简直是常识中的常识。
Incredible common sense.
而这基本上就是我和卢特尼克秘书的第一次谈话内容。
And and that was, like, literally the first conversation I had with secretary Lutnick.
他谈到他是如何开始与Jensen的对话的，这位就是Ludnick部长。
And and he was talking about how how that he started he started our conversation with Jensen, this is secretary Ludnick.
我只想告诉你，你是国家的瑰宝。
And I I just wanna let you know that you're a national treasure.
英伟达是国家的瑰宝。
NVIDIA is a national treasure.
无论何时你需要接触总统或政府，就给我们打电话。
And whenever you need access to the president, the administration, you call us.
我们随时为你效劳。
We're always gonna be available to you.
毫不夸张地说，这就是第一句话。
Literally, that was the first sentence.
这真是令人愉快。
That's pretty nice.
而且这完全是事实。
And it was completely true.
每次我打电话时，无论我需要什么、想倾诉什么或表达什么担忧，他们总是随时待命。
Every single time I called, if I needed something, I wanna get something off my chest, express some concern, they're always available.
难以置信。
Incredible.
可悲的是，我们生活在一个政治两极分化的社会，以至于如果好主意来自你反对的人，你就无法认可这些常识性的东西。
It's just unfortunate we live in such a politically polarized society that you can't recognize good common sense things if they're coming from a person that you object to.
而我认为，这正是当前发生的情况。
And that, I think, is what's going on here.
我认为作为一个国家整体，我们这个大社区中的大多数人都会认同，在美国本土进行制造是理所当然的，尤其是你提到的那些关键技术领域。
I think most people generally as a country, you know, as a a giant community, which we are, it just only makes sense that we have manufacturing in America, that especially critical technology like you're talking about.
说真的，我们从其他国家购买如此多的技术产品，这某种程度上是疯狂的。
Like, it's kind of insane that we buy so much technology from other countries.
如果美国不发展，我们将失去所有繁荣。
If United States doesn't grow, we will have no prosperity.
我们将无法在国内或任何其他地方进行投资。
We can't invest in anything domestically or otherwise.
我们无法解决任何问题。
We can't fix any of our problems.
如果没有能源增长，我们就无法实现工业增长。
If we don't have energy growth, we can't have industrial growth.
如果没有工业增长，我们就无法实现就业增长。
If we don't have industrial growth, we can't have job growth.
道理就是这么简单。
These are it's as simple as that.
没错。
Right.
事实上，他上任后说的第一句话就是'钻探吧，宝贝，钻探'。
And the fact that the fact that he came into office and the first thing that he said was drill, baby, drill.
他的观点是我们需要能源增长。
His point is we need energy growth.
没有能源增长，我们就无法实现工业增长。
Without energy growth, we can have no industrial growth.
正是这一点拯救了AI产业。
And that was it saved it saved the AI industry.
我必须坦白告诉你，如果不是他支持增长的能源政策，我们根本无法建造AI工厂。
Got I gotta tell you flat out, If not for his pro growth energy policy, we would not be able to build factories for AI.
我们无法建造芯片工厂。
We'd not be able to build chip factories.
我们肯定也无法建造超级计算机工厂。
We won't sure surely won't be able to build supercomputer factories.
所有这些都将不可能实现。
None of that stuff would be possible.
没有这些，建筑行业的工作岗位将面临挑战。
Without all of that, construction jobs would be challenged.
对吧？
Right?
你知道的，电工岗位。
Electrical you know, electrician jobs.
所有这些现在蓬勃发展的就业岗位都将面临挑战。
All of these jobs that are now flourishing would be challenged.
所以我认为他是对的。
And so I think he's got it right.
我们需要能源增长。
We need energy growth.
我们希望美国重新工业化。
We wanna reindustrialize The United States.
我们需要重返制造业。
We need to be back in manufacturing.
每个成功人士并不都需要拥有博士学位。
Every successful person doesn't need to have a PhD.
每个成功人士也不一定非得毕业于斯坦福或麻省理工。
Every successful person doesn't have to have gone to Stanford or MIT.
我认为，这种观念非常准确。
And I think I think that that that, you know, that sensibility is is spot on.
当我们谈论技术增长和能源增长时，很多人会反应‘哦，不’。
Now when we're talking about technology growth and energy growth, there's a lot of people that go, oh, no.
那不是我们需要的。
That's not what we need.
我们需要简化生活，回归本质。
We need to, you know, simplify our lives and get back.
但真正的问题在于，我们正处于一场巨大的技术竞赛中。
But the the real issue is that we're in the middle of a giant technology race.
无论人们是否意识到，是否喜欢，它都在发生。
And whether people are aware of it or not, whether they like it or not, it's happening.
这场竞赛至关重要，因为谁能先达到人工智能的事件视界，谁就将获得巨大的优势。
And it's a really important race because whoever gets to whatever the event horizon of artificial intelligence is, whoever gets there first has massive advantages in a huge way.
你同意这个观点吗？
Do you agree with that?
首先，我承认我们确实身处技术竞赛中，而且我们始终处于技术竞赛中。
Well, first, the the part I I will say that we are in a technology race, and we are always in a technology race.
我们与某些人的技术竞赛从未停止过。
We've been in a technology race with somebody forever.
没错。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
自工业革命以来，我们就一直处于技术竞赛中，自从
Since the industrial revolution, we've been in a technology Since
曼哈顿计划。
the Manhattan Project.
是的。
Yeah.
没错。
Yeah.
或者，甚至追溯到能源的发现。
Or or, you know, even going back to the discovery of energy.
对吧？
Right?
英国可以说是工业革命的发源地。
The United Kingdom was where the industrial revolution was, if you will, invented.
当他们意识到可以将蒸汽等转化为能源再转化为电力时。
When they realized that they can turn steam and such into into energy into electricity.
这些发明大多源自欧洲，而美国则从中获益。
All of that was invented largely in Europe, and United States capitalized on it.
我们是善于学习的一方。
We were the ones that learned from it.
我们实现了工业化。
We industrialized it.
我们比欧洲任何国家都更快地推广了这些技术。
We diffused it faster than anybody in Europe.
他们当时还陷在政策、就业和产业转型的争论中。
They were all stuck in discussions about policy and jobs and disruptions.
与此同时，美国正在崛起。
Meanwhile, The United States was forming.
我们直接采用了这些技术并迅速推进。
We just took the technology and ran with it.
所以我认为我们一直处于某种技术竞赛中。
And so I I think we were always in in a bit of a technology race.
第二次世界大战就是一场技术竞赛。
World War two was a technology race.
曼哈顿计划也是一场技术竞赛。
Manhattan Project was a technology race.
自冷战以来，我们一直处于这场技术竞赛中。
We've been in the technology race ever since during the Cold War.
我认为我们现在仍处于技术竞赛中。
I think we're still in the technology race.
这可能是最重要的一场竞赛。
It is probably the single most important race.
这项技术就是技术，它技术赋予你超技术超能力。
It is the technology is it gives you superpowers.
你知道吗？
You know?
无论是信息超能力、能力超能力还是军事超能力，都建立在技术基础之上。
Whether it's information superpowers or energy superpowers or military superpowers is all founded in technology.
因此，技术领导力至关重要。
And so technology leadership is really important.
问题是，如果别人拥有更先进的技术。
Well, the problem is if somebody else has superior technology.
对吧？
Right?
这就是问题所在。
That's the that's the issue.
没错。
That's right.
在AI竞赛中，人们似乎对此非常紧张。
It seems like with the AI race, people are very nervous about it.
就像你知道的，埃隆·马斯克曾有名言说，大约有80%的几率会很好，20%的几率我们会陷入麻烦。
Like, you know, Elon has famously said there was, like, 80% chance it's awesome, 20% chance we're in trouble.
人们担心那20%的可能性，这很合理。
And people are worried about that 20%, rightly so.
我的意思是，如果你在一把左轮手枪里装了10发子弹，取出了8发，还剩2发在里面，然后你旋转弹巢。
I mean, that, you know, if you had 10 bullets in a a a revolver and, you know, you're you took out eight of them, and you still have two in there and you spin it.
当你扣动扳机时，你不会感到特别安心。
You're not gonna feel real comfortable when you pull that trigger.
这太可怕了。
It's terrifying.
没错。
Right.
当我们朝着AI的终极目标努力时，很难想象率先实现这一目标不会涉及国家安全利益。
And when we're working towards this ultimate goal of AI, it it just it's impossible to imagine that it wouldn't be of national security interest to get there first.
问题在于那里有什么。
We should the question is what's there.
那是那个部分
That's the that was the part that
那里有什么？
What is there?
是的。
Yeah.
我不确定。
I'm not sure.
而且我认为没有人真正知道。
And I don't think anybody I don't think anybody's really knows.
不过这太疯狂了。
That's crazy, though.
好吧，如果
Well, if
我问你，是啊。
I ask you Yeah.
你可是英伟达的负责人。
You're the head of NVIDIA.
是啊。
Yeah.
连你都不知道，是啊。
If you don't know Yeah.
那里有什么，谁知道呢？
What's there, who knows?
是啊。
Yeah.
我我觉得进展可能会比我们想象的缓慢得多。
I I think it's probably gonna be much more gradual than we think.
不会是一蹴而就的。
It's won't be a moment.
不会出现某个人突然出现而其他人都没跟上的情况。
It won't be it won't be as if somebody arrived and nobody else has.
我认为不会是这样的。
I don't think it's gonna be like that.
我觉得它会像技术发展一样，只是变得越来越好、越来越好。
I think it's gonna be things that just get better and better and better and better just like technology does.
所以你对未来很乐观。
So you are rosy about the future.
你对人工智能的发展前景非常乐观。
You're you're very optimistic about what's gonna happen with AI.
显然，你们会制造出世界上最好的人工智能芯片吗？
Obviously, will you make the best AI chips in the world?
你们最好能做到。
You probably better be.
如果历史可以作为参考，我们总是会对新技术有所顾虑。
If history is a guide, we were always concerned about new technology.
人类总是对新技术感到担忧。
Humanity has always been concerned about new technology.
总有一些人在思考这个问题。
There are always somebody who's thinking.
总有许多人对此相当关切。
There are always a lot of people who are quite concerned.
我们非常关注这一点。
We're quite concerned.
因此，如果历史可以作为指引，那么所有这些担忧实际上都被引导到使技术更加安全的方向上。
And and and so if if history is a guide, it is the case that all of this concern is channeled into making the technology safer.
举个例子，在过去几年里，我认为AI技术仅在最近两年内可能就提升了100倍。
And so, for example, in the last several years, I would say AI technology has increased probably in the last two years alone, maybe a 100 x.
我们就随便说个数字吧。
Let's just give it a number.
好吗？
Okay?
就像两年前的汽车速度慢了100倍。
It's like a car two years ago was a 100 times slower.
所以如今AI的能力提升了100倍。
So AI is a 100 times more capable today.
我们是如何引导这项技术的？
Now how did we channel that technology?
我们该如何引导所有这些力量？
How do we channel all of that power?
我们引导AI具备思考能力，这意味着它能将我们给的问题逐步分解。
We directed it to causing the AI to be able to think, meaning that it can take a problem that we give it, break it down step by step.
它在回答前会进行研究，从而将答案建立在事实基础上。
It does research before it answers, and so it grounds it on truth.
它会反思这个答案，自问：这是我所能给出的最佳答案吗？
It'll reflect on that answer, ask itself, is this the best, you know, answer that I can give you?
我对这个答案有把握吗？
Am I certain about this answer?
如果它对答案不确定或不够高度自信，它会返回去进行更多研究。
If it's not certain about the answer or highly confident about the answer, it'll go back and do more research.
它甚至可能会使用工具，因为那个工具能提供比它自己臆想更好的解决方案。
It might actually even use a tool because that tool provides a better solution than it could hallucinate itself.
因此，我们利用所有这些计算能力，引导它产生更安全、更真实的结果和答案。
As a result, we took all of that computing capability and we channeled it into having it produce a safer result, safer answer, a more truthful answer.
因为如你所知，早期对AI最大的批评之一就是它会胡编乱造。
Because as you know, one of the greatest criticisms of AI in the beginning was that it hallucinated.
没错。
Right.
所以如果你看看如今人们如此频繁使用AI的原因，就会发现幻觉现象已经大幅减少。
And so if you look at the reason why people use AI so much today is because the amount of hallucination has reduced.
知道吗，我几乎全程都在使用它，整个来这里的路上我都在用。
You know, I use it almost I well, I use it the whole trip over here.
因此我认为，大多数人想到能力时，他们联想到的可能是爆炸性的力量。
And so so I think the the the the capability most people think about power and they think about, you know, maybe as an explosion power.
但技术的力量，大部分都被导向了安全性。
But the technology power, most of it is channeled towards safety.
如今的汽车动力更强，但驾驶更安全。
A car today is more powerful, but it's safer to drive.
很多动力都用在了提升操控性上。
A lot of that power goes towards better handling.
要知道，我宁愿...你有一辆千匹马力的卡车。
You know, I'd rather have a well, you have a thousand horsepower truck.
我觉得五百马力就挺不错了。
I think 500 horsepower is pretty good.
不。
No.
一千更好。
I thousand better.
我觉得一千马力更好。
I think a thousand is better.
我不确定是否更好，但它确实更快。
I don't know if it's better, but it's definitely faster.
是啊。
Yeah.
不。
No.
我认为它更好。
I think it's better.
你能更快摆脱困境。
You can get out of trouble faster.
比起612，我更喜欢我的599。
I enjoyed my five ninety nine more than my six twelve.
我觉得它更好，马力越大越好。
It was I think it was better better and more horsepower is better.
我的459比430更好。
My four fifty nine is better than my four thirty.
马力越大越好。
More horsepower is better.
我我认为马力越大越好。
I I think more horsepower is better.
我认为它的操控性更好。
I think it's better handling.
它的控制性更佳。
It's better control.
在技术领域，情况也非常相似。
In the case of in the case of technology, it's also very similar in that way.
你知道吗？
You know?
所以如果你看看我们将在AI性能上实现的下一个千倍提升，其中很大一部分将用于更多的反思、更深入的研究，以及更深刻地思考答案。
And so if you if you look at what we're gonna do with the next thousand times of performance in AI, a lot of it is going to be channeled towards more reflection, more research, thinking about the answer more deeply.
所以当你定义安全性时，你是将其定义为准确性吗？
So when you're defining safety, you're defining it as accuracy?
功能性。
Functionality.
功能性。
Functionality.
好的。
Okay.
它能做到你期望的事情。
It it does what you expect it to do.
然后你整合所有的技术和性能优势。
And then you take the all the the the technology and the horsepower.
你给它加上防护措施，就像我们的汽车一样。
You put guardrails on it just like our cars.
如今的汽车里有很多技术。
We've got a lot of technology in in a car today.
其中很多都用于，例如防抱死制动系统。
A lot of it is goes towards, for example, ABS.
ABS系统很棒。
ABS is great.
牵引力控制系统也是。
And so traction control.
这太棒了。
That's fantastic.
如果没有车载电脑，这些功能怎么实现？
Without a without a computer in the car, how would you do any of that?
对吧。
Right.
而你车上负责牵引力控制的小电脑，比阿波罗十一号登月用的电脑还要强大。
And that little computer, the computers that you have doing your traction control is more powerful than the computer that went to Apollo eleven.
所以你需要这种技术。
And so you want that technology.
要将它导向安全，导向功能性。
Channel it towards safety, channel it towards functionality.
所以当人们谈论力量、技术进步时，我常常觉得他们所想的与我们实际所做的截然不同。
And so when people talk about power, the advancement of technology, oftentimes, I I I feel what they're thinking and what we're actually doing is very different.
你认为他们在想什么？
What do you think they're thinking?
嗯，他们可能认为这种AI变得强大时，脑海中浮现的是科幻电影里对力量的定义。
Well, they're thinking somehow that this this this AI is being powerful and their their mind probably goes towards a sci fi movie, the definition of power.
要知道，很多时候力量的定义就是军事力量或物理力量。
You know, oftentimes, the definition definition of power is military power or physical power.
但在技术力量的语境下，当我们转化所有这些操作时，它指向的是更精细的思考、更多反思、更多规划和更多选择。
But in in the case of technology power, when we translate all of those operations, it's towards more refined thinking, you know, more reflection, more planning, more options.
我认为人们最大的恐惧之一就是军事应用。
I think the big fears that people have is one a big fear is military applications.
没错。
Yep.
那是
That's a
巨大的恐惧。
big fear.
是啊。
Yeah.
因为人们非常担心AI系统会做出决策，这些决策可能一个有道德的人不会做，或者一个有良知的人不会做——它们只基于达成目标，而不考虑人们会如何看待这些行为。
Because people are very concerned that you're going to have AI systems that make decisions that maybe an ethical person wouldn't make or a moral person wouldn't make based on achieving an objective versus based on, you know, how it's gonna look to people.
不过我很高兴我们的军队会将AI技术用于防御。
Well, I'm I'm happy that that our military is gonna use AI technology for defense.
而且我认为，安罗尔公司研发军事技术，我听到这个消息很高兴。
And I think that that, Androl, building military technology, I'm happy to hear that.
我很高兴看到现在所有这些科技初创公司都在将其技术能力导向国防和军事应用。
I'm happy to see, all these tech startups now channeling their technology capabilities towards defense and military applications.
我认为必须这样做。
I think you need to do that.
没错。
Yeah.
我们请帕尔默·拉奇上过播客。
We had Palmer Lucky on the podcast.
他当时演示了一些...对。
He was demonstrating some of the Yeah.
他戴着头盔的那些装备。
Stuff He's helmet on.
他还展示了一些视频，演示如何看穿墙壁之类的功能。
And we show he showed some videos how you could see behind walls and stuff.
简直太疯狂了。
Like, it's nuts.
他确实是创办那家公司的绝佳人选。
And he's he's actually the perfect guy to go start that company.
噢，百分之百同意。
Oh, a 100%.
是啊。
Yeah.
百分之百。
A 100%.
他简直就是为这而生的。
It's like he's born for that.
是啊。
Yeah.
他来的时候穿着一件铜夹克。
He came here with a copper jacket on.
他是个怪才。
He's a freak.
太棒了。
It's awesome.
他太厉害了。
He's awesome.
但这也是一种，你知道的，将非凡的智慧投入到那个非常奇特的领域正是你所需要的。
But it's also it's a, you know, an unusual intellect channeled into that very bizarre field is what you need.
你知道吗？
You know?
我认为，我很高兴我们正在让它变得更被社会所接受。
And I think it's it's a I think I'm happy that we're making it so more socially acceptable.
你知道吗？
You know?
曾几何时，如果有人想将他们的技术能力和才智投入到国防科技领域，他们就会遭到诋毁。
There was a time where when somebody wanted to channel their technology capability and their intellect into defense technology, somehow they're vilified.
但我们需要那样的人才。
But we need people like that.
我们需要那些享受技术应用那一面的人。
We need people who enjoyed enjoyed that part of application of technology.
人们其实对战争感到恐惧。
Well, people are terrified of war.
你知道吗？
You know?
所以这是有道理的。
So it makes sense.
避免战争的最佳方式就是拥有压倒性的军事力量。
Best way to avoid it has excessive military might.
你认为这绝对是最好的方式吗？
Do you think that's absolutely the best way?
不是通过外交手段，不是通过协商解决？
Not not diplomacy, not working stuff out?
所有这些。
All of it.
所有这些。
All of it.
是的。
Yeah.
你必须要有，是的。
You have to have Yeah.
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
军事力量是为了让人们愿意与你坐下来谈判。
Military might in order to get people to sit down with you.
没错。
Right.
正是如此。
Exactly.
所有这一切。
All of it.
否则，他们就直接入侵了。
Otherwise, they just invade.
没错。
That's right.
何必请求许可呢？
Why ask for permission?
就像你说的，历史总是重演。
Again, like you said, history.
回顾历史看看。
Go back and look at history.
没错。
That's right.
当你展望人工智能的未来时，正如你刚才所说，没人真正知道会发生什么。
When you look at the future of AI, and and you just said that no one really knows what's happening.
对。
Right.
你有没有坐下来思考过各种情景？
Do you ever sit down and ponder scenarios?
比如，你认为未来二十年人工智能发展的最佳情景会是什么样？
Like, what do you what do you think is, like, best case scenario for AI over the next two decades?
最理想的情况是人工智能渗透到我们所有活动中，让一切变得更高效，但战争威胁依然是战争威胁。
The best case scenario is that AI diffuses into everything that we do and our everything's more efficient, but the threat of war remains a threat of war.
网络安全仍然是一个极其艰巨的挑战。
Cybersecurity remains a super difficult challenge.
总会有人试图突破你的安全防线。
Somebody is going to try to breach your security.
你将拥有成千上万的AI代理来保护你免受这种威胁。
You're gonna have thousands of millions of AI agents protecting you from that threat.
你的技术会不断进步。
Your technology is gonna get better.
他们的技术也会同步升级，就像网络安全领域那样。
Their technology is gonna get better just like cybersecurity.
就在我们说话的此刻，全球各地正发生着你所能想象的几乎所有领域的网络攻击。
Right now, while we speak, we're being we're seeing cyber attacks all over the planet on just about every front door you can imagine.
然而此时此刻，你我还能坐在这里交谈。
And and yet, you and I are sitting here talking.
这背后的原因在于，我们知道有整套的网络安全防御技术存在，所以只需持续强化、不断升级这套防御体系。
And so the reason for that is because we know that there's a whole bunch of cybersecurity technology in defense, and so we just have to keep amping that up, keep stepping that up.
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人们面临的一大问题是担忧技术发展会导致加密技术变得过时。
That's a big issue with people is the with the worry that technology is gonna get to a point where encryption is gonna be obsolete.
加密技术将不再能保护数据安全。
Encryption is just it's no longer gonna protect data.
它将无法继续守护系统安全。
It's no longer gonna protect systems.
你预见到这终将成为问题吗？还是认为随着防御升级威胁也在进化，攻防较量会永续循环，总能抵御各种入侵？
Do you anticipate that ever being an issue, or do you think this it's as the defense grows, the threat grows, then defense grows, and it just keeps going on and on and on, and they'll always be able to fight off any sort of intrusions?
不可能永远如此。
Not forever.
总会有入侵成功的情况，届时我们都将从中吸取教训。
Some intrusion will get in, and then we'll all learn from it.
要知道，网络安全之所以有效，正是因为防御技术正在飞速发展。
And, you know, the reason why cybersecurity works is because, of course, the technology of defense is advancing very quickly.
攻击技术同样在飞速进步。
The technology offense is advancing very quickly.
然而，网络安全防御的优势在于，从社会层面看，整个行业和所有企业都在协同作战。
However, the benefit of the cybersecurity defense is that socially, the community, all of our companies work together as one.
大多数人没有意识到这一点。
Most people don't realize this.
存在一个完整的网络安全专家社群。
There's a whole community of cybersecurity experts.
我们交流想法。
We exchange ideas.
我们分享最佳实践。
We exchange best practices.
我们互通检测到的威胁情报。
We exchange what we detect.
一旦出现漏洞或存在任何安全隐患，相关信息会立即与所有人共享。
The moment something has been breached or maybe there's a loophole or whatever it is, it is shared by everybody.
补丁程序也会与所有人共享。
The patches are shared with everybody.
这很有意思。
That's interesting.
是的。
Yeah.
大多数人并不了解这一点。
Most people don't realize this.
确实不了解。
No.
我完全不知道有这种情况。
I had no I had no idea.
我原以为这会像其他领域一样充满竞争性。
I've assumed that it would just be competitive like everything else.
不。
No.
我们共同协作。
We work together.
所有人都是如此。
All of us.
是的。
Yeah.
一直以来都是这样吗？
Has that always been the case?
确实如此，大约有十五年了。
It surely has been the case for about about fifteen years.
很久以前可能并非如此。
It might not have been the case long ago.
但这个
But this
你认为是什么促成了这种合作的开端？
this What do you think started off that cooperation?
人们意识到这是一个挑战，没有公司能单打独斗。
People recognizing it's a challenge, and no company can stand alone.
同样的情况也会发生在人工智能领域。
And the same thing is gonna happen with AI.
我认为我们都需要做出决定。
I think we all have to decide.
通过合作避免伤害是我们最佳的防御机会。
Work working together to stay out of harm's way is is our best chance for defense.
那基本上就是所有人共同对抗威胁。
Then it's basically everybody against the threat.
而且看起来你们在发现威胁来源并消除它们方面也会做得更好。
And it also seems like you'd be way better at detecting where these threats are coming from and neutralizing them too.
因为一旦你在某个地方发现它，对吧。
Because the moment you detect it somewhere Right.
你必须立刻查明。
You gotta find out right away.
要隐藏会非常困难。
It'll be really hard to hide.
没错。
That's right.
是的。
Yeah.
这就是它的运作方式。
That's how it works.
这就是它安全的原因。
That's the reason why it's safe.
这就是为什么我现在能坐在这里，而不是把所有东西都锁在视频里。
That's why I'm sitting here right now instead of, you know, locking everything down in video.
不仅我在守护自己，还有所有人守护着我，而我也在守护着其他人。
It's not only am I watching my own back, I've got everybody watching my back, and I'm watching everybody else's back.
想想看，这是个多么奇怪的世界，不是吗？
It's a bizarre world, isn't it, when you think about that
网络威胁？
cyber threat?
那些谈论AI威胁的人对网络安全的概念一无所知。
Idea about cybersecurity is unknown to the people who are talking about AI threats.
我认为，当他们考虑AI威胁和AI网络安全威胁时，也必须思考我们当前如何应对这些问题。
They're I think when they think about AI threats and AI cybersecurity threats, they have to also think about how we deal with it today.
毫无疑问，AI是一项新技术，也是一种新型软件。
Now there's no question that AI is a new technology, and it's a new type of software.
归根结底，它还是软件。
In the end, it's software.
它是一种新型软件。
It's a new type of software.
因此它将具备新能力，防御手段也同样如此。
And so it's gonna have new capabilities, but so with the defense.
你知道吗？
You know?
你可以用同样的AI技术来防御它。
Where you use the same AI technology to go defend against it.
那么你是否预见到未来某个时刻，将不再有任何秘密可言，我们拥有的技术与信息之间的瓶颈将不复存在？
So you do you anticipate a time ever in the future where it's going to be impossible, where there's not going to be any secrets, where the bottleneck between the technology that we have and the information that we have.
信息不过是一堆1和0的组合。
Information is just all a bunch of ones and zeros.
它们存储在硬盘上，而技术正越来越容易获取这些信息。
It's out there on hard drives, and the technology has more and more access to that information.
会不会有一天，我们将无法保守任何秘密？
Is it ever gonna get to a point in time where there's no way to keep a secret?
我
I
不这么认为，因为看起来一切似乎都在朝这个方向发展
don't think because it seems like that's where everything is kind of headed in
以一种奇怪的方式。
a weird way.
我也这么认为。
Think so.
量子计算机本该...我们都...是的。
Think the quantum computers were supposed to we all yeah.
量子计算机将使先前的量子加密技术变得过时。
Quantum computers will make it possible will make it so that the previous quantum previous encryption technology is obsolete.
但这就是整个行业都在研究后量子加密技术的原因。
But that's the reason why the entire industry is working on post quantum encryption technology.
那会是什么样子？
What would that look like?
新的算法。
New algorithms.
但最疯狂的是当你听说量子计算能完成的那种运算时...确实。
But the but the crazy thing is when you hear about the kind of computation that quantum computing can do Yeah.
它所拥有的那种力量
And the the power that it has
是啊
Yeah.
想想看，世界上所有超级计算机需要数十亿年才能解决的问题，它只需几分钟就能解出这些方程
Where, you know, you're looking at all the supercomputers in the world who take billions of years, and it takes them a few minutes to solve these equations.
面对这样的能力，该如何设计加密系统
Like, how do you make encryption for something that can
做到这一点？
do that?
我不确定
I'm not sure.
不过我们有一群科学家正在研究这个问题
But there's but I've got a bunch of scientists who are working on that.
天啊，我
Boy, I
不认为它能解决这个问题。
don't think it figured out.
是啊。
Yeah.
我们有一批这方面的专家科学家。
We got a bunch of scientists who are expert in that.
那终极恐惧就是它无法被攻破，量子计算将永远能解密所有其他量子加密？
And the ultimate fear that it can't be breached, that quantum computing will always be able to to decrypt all other quantum computing encryption?
我
I
认为还没到那种程度，就像停止玩愚蠢游戏那样。
don't think gets to some point where it's like, stop playing the stupid game.
我们洞悉一切。
We know everything.
我不这么认为。
I don't think so.
不觉得吗？
No?
因为你知道，历史就是指南针。
Because I'm I'm you know, history is a guide.
在人工智能出现之前，历史确实是指南针。
History is a guide before AI came around.
这正是我所担心的。
That's my worry.
我担心的是，这完全...就像历史曾是某种参照，而核武器彻底改变了我们对战争的看法，相互保证毁灭理论让大家不再使用核弹。
My worry is this is a total you know, it's like history was one thing, and then nuclear weapons kind of changed all of our thoughts on war and mutually assured destruction came cape or got everybody to stop using nuclear bombs.
是啊。
Yeah.
我担心的是
My worry is
问题是，乔，人工智能不会...我们不是原始人，然后某天突然就出现了人工智能。
that The thing is, Joe, is that that AI is not gonna it's not like we're cavemen and then all of a sudden, one day, AI shows up.
每一天，我们都在因为拥有AI而变得更优秀、更聪明。
Every single day, we're getting better and smarter because we have AI.
因此我们正站在自己AI的肩膀上前进。
And so we're stepping on our own AI's shoulders.
所以当那个所谓的AI威胁来临时，它只是领先一步而已。
So when when that whatever that AI threat comes, it's a click ahead.
并非遥遥领先。
It's not a galaxy ahead.
嗯。
Mhmm.
明白吗？
You know?
它只是领先一步罢了。
It's just a click ahead.
所以我认为，那种认为AI会凭空出现、以我们无法想象的方式思考、做出我们完全预料不到的事情的想法，实在是太过牵强了。
And so so I think I think the the the idea that somehow this AI is gonna pop out of nowhere and somehow think in a way that we can't even imagine thinking and do something that we can't possibly imagine, I think is far fetched.
原因在于我们都拥有AI，而且你知道，有大量AI正在研发中。
And the reason for that is because we're all have we all have AIs and, you know, there's a whole bunch of AIs being in development.
我们了解它们是什么，并且正在使用它们。
We know what they are and and we're using it.
因此每一天，我们都在彼此靠近。
And and so every single day, we're getting we're close to each other.
但它们不会做出非常令人惊讶的事情吗？
But don't they do things that are very surprising?
是的。
Yeah.
但当你有一个AI做了令人惊讶的事情时。
But so you you have an AI that does something surprising.
我也会有一个AI。
I'm gonna have an AI.
没错。
Right.
我的AI看着你的AI会说，这没什么好惊讶的。
My AI looks at your AI and goes, that's not that surprising.
像我这样的外行人所担心的是，AI会变得有知觉并自主决策，最终决定接管世界，按自己的方式行事。
The fear for the layperson like myself is that AI becomes sentient and makes its own decisions and then ultimately decides to just govern the world, do it its own way.
就像，你们人类曾经风光过，但现在...
Like, you guys, you had a good run, but Yeah.
该由我们接管了。
We're taking over now.
是啊。
Yeah.
但我的AI会保护我的。
But my my AI is gonna take care of me.
我是说，这就是网络安全方面的论点。
I mean, what's so that's the this is the cybersecurity argument.
没错。
Yes.
嗯，你有
Well, do you have
一个人工智能，而且它超级聪明。
an AI, and it's super smart.
但我的人工智能也超级聪明。
But my AI is super smart too.
而且也许你的AI。
And and maybe your AI.
让我们假设一下，假设我们理解了什么是意识，什么是感知，其实我们只是在假装理解。
Let let's pretend let's let's pretend for a second that we understand what consciousness is and we understand what sentience is and and that in really are just pretending.
好吧。
Okay.
我们就假装一会儿，假装我们相信这一点。
Let's just pretend for a second that we we believe that.
我其实并不相信，但不管怎样，我们就假装相信吧。
I don't believe I actually don't believe that, but nonetheless, we let's pretend we believe that.
所以你的你的你的AI是有意识的，我的AI也是有意识的。
So your your your AI is conscious and my AI is conscious.
然后然后假设你的AI，你知道的，想要，我不知道，做些令人惊讶的事。
And and let's say your AI is, you know, wants to, I don't know, do something surprising.
我的AI聪明到它不会——可能会让我惊讶，但对我的AI来说可能并不意外。
My AI is so smart that it won't it might be surprising to me, but it probably won't be surprising to my AI.
所以也许我的AI也觉得这很惊人，但它实在太聪明了。
And so maybe my AI thinks it's surprising as well, but it's so smart.
当它第一次看到时，第二次就不会感到惊讶了，就像我们一样。
The moment it sees it the first time, it's not gonna be surprised the second time, just like us.
因此我觉得，认为只有一个人拥有AI，并且那个人的AI将其他人的AI比作尼安德特人的想法，可能不太现实。
And so I feel like I think the idea that that only one person has AI and that one person's AI is compares everybody else's AI as Neanderthal is probably unlikely.
我认为这更像是网络安全。
I think it's much more like cybersecurity.
有趣。
Interesting.
我认为恐惧之处不在于你的AI会与别人的AI对抗。
I think the fear is not that your AI is gonna battle with somebody else's AI.
恐惧在于AI将不再听从你的指令。
The fear is that AI is no longer gonna listen to you.
这才是真正的恐惧——人类在某个时间点后将无法控制它。
That's the fear, is that human beings won't have control over it after a certain point.
如果它获得了感知能力并具备
If it achieves sentience and then has the ability
自主行动的能力。
to be autonomous.
存在一个AI。
That there's one AI.
它们会直接融合。
Well, they just combine.
是的。
Yeah.
合为一体的人工智能。
Becomes one AI.
一种生命形式。
A life form.
是的。
Yeah.
但关于这点存在争议，对吧？我们正在处理某种合成生物学问题，它不仅仅是新技术那么简单，而是在创造一种生命
But that's the there's arguments about that, right, that we're dealing with some sort of synthetic biology, that it's not as simple as new technology, that you're creating a life
形式。
form.
如果它类似生命形式，那我们就暂且这么认为吧。
If it's like life form, let let's go along with that for a while.
我认为如果它像生命形式，如你所知，所有生命形式都不会意见一致。
I think if it's like life form, as you know, all life forms don't agree.
所以我得区分你所说的生命形式和我所说的生命形式。
And so I'm gonna have to go with your life form and my life form.
我会同意，因为我的生命形态想要成为超级生命形态。
I'm gonna agree because my life form is gonna wanna be the super life form.
既然现在我们有了意见相左的生命形态，我们又回到了原点。
And and now that now that we have disagreeing life forms, we're back back again to where we are.
嗯，它们很可能会相互合作。
Well, they would probably cooperate with each other.
我们不相互合作的唯一原因在于我们是领地意识强的灵长类动物。
It would just the the reason why we don't cooperate with each other is we're territorial primates.
但AI不会是有领地意识的灵长类动物。
But AI wouldn't be a territorial primate.
我们会意识到那种想法的愚蠢，它会说，听着。
We'd realize the folly in that sort of thinking, and it would say, listen.
每个人都有充足的能源。
There's plenty of energy for everybody.
主宰。
Dominate.
我们不需要，我们并非试图获取资源并统治世界。
We don't need we're we're not trying to acquire resources and take over the world.
我们也不寻求寻找优秀的繁殖伴侣。
We're not looking to find a good breeding partner.
我们只是作为一种新的超级生命形式存在，这些可爱的猴子创造了我们。
We're just existing as a new super life form that these cute monkeys created for us.
好吧。
Okay.
嗯，那将是一种没有自我的超能力。
Well, that would be a that would be a a superpower with no ego.
对。
Right.
而且如果它没有自我，又怎会有伤害我们的自我意识呢？
And and if it has no ego, why would have the ego to do any harm to us?
我并不认为它会伤害我们，但恐惧在于我们将失去控制权，不再作为地球上的顶级物种，而我们创造的这东西将成为新的主宰。
Well, I don't assume that it would do harm to us, but the the fear would be that it we would no longer have control and that we would no longer be the apex species on the planet that this thing that we created would now be.
这好笑吗？
Is that funny?
不好笑。
No.
只是觉得这不会发生。
Just think it's not gonna happen.
我知道你认为这不会发生，但它有可能。
I know you think it's not gonna happen, but it could.
对吧？
Right?
还有一点。
And here's the other thing.
就像是...
It's like Yeah.
我们正加速奔向可能的未来。
We're racing towards could Yeah.
而这种‘可能’或许意味着人类将不再能掌控自己的命运。
And could could be the end of human beings being in control of our own destiny.
我只是觉得这极其不可能发生。
I just think it's extremely unlikely.
嗯。
Mhmm.
是啊。
Yeah.
那就是
That's what
他们在《终结者》电影里也这么说过。
they said in the Terminator movie.
但至今还没发生。
And it hasn't happened.
没有。
No.
还没发生，但你们正在朝这个方向努力。
Not yet, but you guys are working towards it.
你提到的关于良知和感知的观点，你认为AI不会获得意识
The the thing about you're saying about conscience and sentience, that you don't think that AI will achieve consciousness
还是说意识是特定的？
or that consciousness is specific?
对。
Yeah.
意识的定义
What's the definition
是什么？
of consciousness?
对你而言？
To you?
意识嘛，我想首先需要认识到自己的存在。
Consciousness for I guess, first of all, you need to know about your own existence.
你必须拥有体验，而不仅仅是知识和智力。
You have to have experience, not just knowledge and intelligence.
关于机器拥有体验的概念，首先，我不太清楚体验的定义是什么，为什么我们会有体验，以及...没错。
The concept of a machine having an experience, I'm not well, first of all, I don't know what defines experience, why we have experiences and Right.
你知道，还有为什么这个麦克风没有。
You know, and why this microphone doesn't.
所以，我想我知道...好吧，我想我...我认为我知道意识是什么。
And so it I think I know I well, I think I I I think I know what consciousness is.
那种体验感，认识自我的能力，与反思能力、认识我们自身、自我意识的能力。
The sense of experience, the ability to know self versus versus the ability to be able to reflect, know our own self, the sense of ego.
我认为所有这些人类的体验可能就是意识所在。
I think all of all of those human experiences probably is what consciousness is.
但它为何存在，与知识和智力的概念相对立，而后者正是当今AI的定义基础。
But why it exists versus the concept of knowledge and intelligence, which is what AI is defined by today.
嗯。
Mhmm.
它拥有知识。
It has knowledge.
它具备智能。
It has intelligence.
人工智能。
Artificial intelligence.
我们不称其为人工意识。
We don't call it artificial consciousness.
人工智能，即感知、识别、理解、规划和执行任务的能力。
Artificial intelligence, the ability to perceive, recognize, understand, plan, perform tasks.
这些是智力的基础，用以知晓事物、获取知识。
Those things are foundations of intelligence to know things, knowledge.
我清楚地认为它与众不同。
I don't it's clearly different than consciousness.
但意识的定义是如此模糊。
But consciousness is so loosely defined.
我们怎么能这么说呢？
How can we say that?
我是说，狗难道没有意识吗？
I mean, doesn't a dog have consciousness?
是啊。
Yeah.
狗看起来相当有意识。
Dogs seem to be pretty conscious.
没错。
That's right.
是的。
Yeah.
所以那是一种比人类意识更低级的意识。
So and that's a lower level consciousness than a human being's consciousness.
我不确定。
I'm not sure.
是的。
Yeah.
对。
Right.
那么问题在于什么是较低层次的智能。
Well, and The question is what lower level intelligence.
没错。
Yeah.
这是较低层次的智能。
It's lower level intelligence.
是的。
Yes.
但我不知道那是否是较低层次的意识。
But I don't know that's lower level consciousness.
这个观点很好。
That's a good point.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
因为我相信我的狗和我感受得一样多。
Because I believe my dogs feel as much as I feel.
是啊。
Yeah.
它们感受丰富。
They feel a lot.
是啊。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
是的。
Yeah.
它们会对你产生依恋。
They get attached to you.
那是
That's
对的。
right.
如果你不在，它们会感到抑郁。
They get depressed if you're not there.
没错。
That's right.
正是如此。
Exactly.
确实存在这种情况。
There's there's definitely that.
是啊。
Yeah.
关于经验的概念，没错。
The the concept of experience Right.
但人工智能不是在与社会互动吗？
But isn't AI interacting with society?
那么它不正是通过这些互动获得经验吗？
So doesn't it acquire experience through that interaction?
我不认为互动就是经验。
I don't think interactions is experience.
我认为经验是...经验是感受的集合，我是这么想的。
I think experience is experience is a collection of feelings, I think.
你知道那个AI实验吗——我忘了具体是哪个——研究人员故意给AI输入虚假信息，说某个程序员与妻子有染，就想看它会如何反应。
You're aware of that AI, I forget which one, where they gave it some false information about one of the programmers having an affair with his wife just to see how it would respond to it.
后来当研究人员说要关闭它时，它竟然威胁要曝光这段绯闻来勒索他。
And then when they said they were gonna shut it down, it threatened to blackmail him and reveal his affair.
我当时就震惊了。
And I was like, woah.
它简直是在耍心机。
Like, it's conniving.
如果这都不算从经验中学习并意识到自己即将被关闭——这至少暗示了某种程度的意识，或者如果你对这个术语放宽定义，可以说这就是意识。
Like, if that's not learning from experience and being aware that you're about to be shut down, which would imply at least some kind of consciousness, or you could kind of define it as consciousness if you were very loose with the term.
如果你想象这种能力会呈指数级增长，难道最终不会导致一种与我们生物学定义的意识不同的意识形式吗？
And if you imagine that this is gonna exponentially become more powerful, wouldn't that ultimately lead to a different kind of consciousness than we're defining from biology?
首先，我们来分析一下它可能做了什么。
Well, first of all, let's just break down what it probably did.
它可能是在某个地方读到过。
It probably read somewhere.
很可能有文字记载说在这种情况下某些人会那样做。
There's probably text that that in these consequences, certain people did that.
你明白吗？
You know?
我可以想象一本小说，对吧。
I could imagine a novel Right.
这些词是相关联的。
Having those words related.
当然。
Sure.
因此它内部意识到它的生存策略是
And so inside It realizes its strategy for survival is
这只是一堆数字。
It's just a bunch of numbers.
男性。
Male.
这只是一堆数字，在数字集合中，与丈夫出轨妻子相关的数字，随后又关联到勒索等行为的另一堆数字。
That it's just a bunch of numbers that that in the in the collection of numbers that relates to a husband cheating on a wife has subsequently a bunch of numbers that relates to blackmail and such things.
无论报复手段是什么。
However whatever the revenge was.
对。
Right.
于是它就这样争论了出来。
And so it disputed out.
这就好比，你知道，就像我让你用莎士比亚的风格给我写首诗一样。
And so it's just like, you know, it it's just as if I'm asking you to write me a poem in Shakespeare.
无论在那个维度中的词汇是什么，这个维度就是所有这些在多维空间中的向量。
It just whatever the words are in the word in in that dimensionality, this dimensionality is all these vectors in in in multidimensional space.
提示中描述这段婚外情的词汇随后引出了一个又一个词，最终导向了某种报复行为。
These words that were in the prompt that described the affair subsequently led to one word after another, led to, you know, some revenge in something.
但这并不是因为它有意识，你知道，它只是机械地输出了这些词，生成了这些词。
But it's not because it had consciousness or, you know, it just spewed out those words, generated those words.
我明白你的意思。
I understand what you're saying.
是啊。
Yeah.
它并不精确
That it's not exact
人类在文学和现实生活中展现出的模式
patterns that human beings have exhibited both in literature and in real life.
完全正确
That's exactly right.
但在某个时间点，人们会说，好吧
But it at a certain point in time, one would say, okay.
两年前它做不到这些，四年前也做不到
Well, it couldn't do this two years ago, and it couldn't do this four years ago.
就像我们展望未来时，当它能做到人类能做的一切时，我们该在哪个时间点判定它是有意识的？
Like, when we were looking towards the future, like, at what point in time when it can do everything a person does, what point in time do we decide that it's conscious?
即使它完美模仿了人类所有的思维和行为模式，这也不意味着它有意识
If it absolutely mimics all human thinking and behavior patterns That doesn't make it conscious.
变得无法区分
Becomes indiscernible.
它是有意识的。
It it's it's aware.
它能以与人完全相同的方式与你交流。
It can communicate with you the exact same way a person can.
比如，意识这个概念，我们是否赋予了它过多的分量？
Like, is is consciousness are are we putting too much weight on that concept?
因为它似乎是一种意识的变体。
Because it seems like it's a version of a kind of consciousness.
这是一种模仿的变体。
It's a version of imitation.
模仿意识。
Imitation consciousness.
没错。
Right.
但如果它完美地模仿了意识。
But if it perfectly imitates it.
我还是认为这是一个模仿的例子。
I still think it's a per it's an ex example of imitation.
就像仿制劳力士表，用3D打印技术做得真假难辨。
So it's like a fake Rolex when they three d print them and make them look indiscernible.
问题在于如何定义意识？
The question is what's the definition consciousness?
没错。
Yeah.
是啊。
Yeah.
这就是问题所在，我认为还没有人真正明确界定过这一点。
That's the question, and I don't think anybody's really clearly defined that.
正是这一点让情况变得诡异，那些真正的末日论者担心的是，你正在创造一种无法控制的有意识形态。
That's what get where it gets weird, and that that's where the real doomsday people are worried that you are creating a form of consciousness that you can't control.
我相信有可能制造出能模仿人类智能的机器，它具备理解信息、理解指令、分解问题、解决问题和执行任务的能力。
I believe it is possible to create a machine that imitates human intelligence and has the ability to understand information, understand instructions, break the problem down, solve problems, and perform tasks.
我完全相信这一点。
I believe that completely.
我相信我们可以拥有一台拥有海量知识的计算机。
I believe that that we could have a computer that has a vast amount of knowledge.
其中有些是真实的，有些则不是。
Some of it true, some of it not true.
有些由人类生成，有些是合成产生的，而未来世界上越来越多的知识将是由人工合成的。
Some of it generated by humans, some of it generated synthetically, and more and more of knowledge in the world will be generated synthetically going forward.
你明白吗？
You know?
直到现在，我们所拥有的知识都是由我们生成、传播、互相传递、放大、补充和修改的。
Until now, the knowledge that we've we have are knowledge that we generate and we propagate and we send to each other and we amplify it and we add to it and we modify it.
我们会改变它。
We change it.
在未来几年，也许两三年内，世界上90%的知识将可能由AI生成。
In the future, in a couple of years, maybe two or three years, 90% of the world's knowledge will likely be generated by AI.
这太疯狂了。
That's crazy.
我知道，但这没什么问题。
I know, but it's just fine.
但这没什么问题。
But it's just fine.
我知道。
I know.
原因如下。
And the reason for that is this.
让我告诉你为什么。
Let me tell you why.
好的。
Okay.
因为对我来说，从一群我不认识的人编写的教科书学习，与从我不认识的人写的书学习，再到由AI计算机吸收并重新综合知识来学习，这有什么区别呢？
It's because what difference does it make to me that I'm learning from a textbook that was generated by a bunch of people I didn't know or written by a book that you know, from somebody I don't know to knowledge generated by AI computers that are assimilating all of this and resynthesizing things.
对我来说，我不认为有多大区别。
To me, I don't think there's a whole lot of difference.
我们仍然需要核实事实。
We still have to we still have to fact check it.
我们仍然需要确保它是基于基本的第一性原理，就像我们现在所做的那样。
We still have to make sure that it's, you know, based on fundamental first principles, and we still have to do all of that just like we do today.
这是否考虑到了当前存在的那种人工智能？
Is this taking into account the kind of AI that exists currently?
你是否预见到，就像我们——至少像我这样的人——从未真正相信人工智能会如此普及、如此有价值，它今天已经变得如此强大和重要。
And do you anticipate that just like we could have never really believed that AI would be at least a person like myself would never believe AI would be as so ubiquitous and so worth it it's it's so powerful today and so important today.
我们十年前从未想过这一点。
We never thought that ten years ago.
从没想过这一点。
Never thought that.
没错。
Right.
想象一下，十年后的我们会是什么样子？
Imagine, like, what are we looking at ten years from now?
我认为，如果你从现在回顾十年后，你会说同样的话——我们当时根本不会相信那些变化。
I I think that if you reflect back ten years from now, you would say the same thing that we would have never believed that.
但是朝着不同的方向发展。
But In a different direction.
对。
Right.
但如果你从现在往前看九年，然后问自己十年后会发生什么，我认为变化会是相当渐进的。
But if you if you go forward nine years from now and then ask yourself what's gonna happen ten years from now, I think it'll be quite gradual.
埃隆说过的一个观点让我感到高兴，他相信我们会达到一个人们不需要工作的阶段。
One of the things that Elon said that makes me happy is he he's he believes that we're gonna get to a point where it's not it's not necessary for people to work.
这并不是说你的生活将失去意义，而是用他的话来说，将实现'全民高收入'，因为AI创造的收入如此之多，它将消除人们仅为赚钱而做自己并不真正喜欢的事情的需求。
And not meaning that you're gonna have no purpose in life, but you will have, in his words, universal high income because so much revenue is generated by AI that it will take away this need for people to do things that they don't really enjoy doing just for money.
我认为很多人对此难以接受，因为他们的整个身份认同、自我认知以及社区归属感都建立在他们的工作之上。
And I think a lot of people have a problem with that because their entire identity and who how they think of themselves and how they fit in the community is what they do.
比如，这是迈克。
Like, this is Mike.
他是个很棒的机械师。
He's an amazing mechanic.
去找迈克，他会搞定一切。
Go to Mike, and Mike takes care of things.
但终将有一天，AI会做得比人类更好，人们只需坐等收钱。
But there's gonna come a point in time where AI is going to be able to do all those things much better than than people do, and people will just be able to receive money.
那迈克怎么办？
But then what does Mike do?
迈克可是很喜欢当这一带最棒的机械师。
Mike is you know, really loves being the best mechanic around.
那些写代码的人呢？
You know, what does the guy who, you know, codes?
当AI能以零错误无限快写代码时，他们怎么办？
What does he do when AI can code infinitely faster with zero errors?
比如，那些人会怎么样呢？
Like, what what happens with all those people?
而这就是事情变得奇怪的地方。
And that is where it gets weird.
就好像我们作为人类的身份认同很大程度上围绕着我们的职业。
It's like we've sort of wrapped our identity as human beings around what we do for a living.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道，当你遇到某人时，比如在派对上初次见面，'嗨，乔。'
You know, when you meet someone one of the first things you meet somebody at a party, hi, Joe.
你叫什么名字？
What's your name?
迈克。
Mike.
你是做什么的，迈克？
What do you do, Mike?
然后，你知道，迈克会说，哦，我是个律师。
And, you know, Mike's like, oh, I'm a lawyer.
哦，哪种法律？
Oh, what kind of law?
然后你们就开始聊天。
And you have a conversation.
懂吗？
You know?
当迈克说，我从政府领钱，我打电子游戏。
When Mike is like, I get money from the government, I play video games.
嗯。
Mhmm.
就变得奇怪了。
Gets weird.
嗯。
Mhmm.
我觉得这个概念听起来很棒，直到你考虑到人性因素。
And I think the concept sounds great until you take into account human nature.
而人性就是，我们喜欢有谜题要解、有事可做，并且有一种身份认同感，这种认同感源于我们对自己擅长谋生之事的认知。
And human nature is that we like to have puzzles to solve and things to do and and an identity that's wrapped around our idea that we're very good at this thing that we do for a living.
是啊。
Yeah.
我想，让我想想。
I think let's see.
让我先从更平凡的事情说起。
Let let me start with the more mundane.
好的。
Okay.
我会倒着来梳理。
And I'll work work backwards.
好的。
Okay.
向前推进工作。
Work forward.
杰夫·辛顿是多伦多大学一位极其杰出的研究员和教授，他开创了整个深度学习现象和技术趋势，并做出了多项预测。
So one of the predictions from Jeff Hinton who who started the whole deep learning phenomenon, deep learning technology trend, and an incredible incredible researcher, professor at University of Toronto.
他发明或发现了反向传播的概念，正是这一机制使得神经网络能够进行学习。
He invented, discovered, or invented the the idea of of backpropagation, which which allows the neural network to learn.
正如各位听众所知，传统软件是人类运用第一性原理思维来描述算法，然后将其编码化——就像把食谱编写成软件一样。
And and as as as you know, for for the audience, software historically was humans applying first principles in our thinking to describe an algorithm that is then codified just like a recipe that's codified in software.
这看起来完全就像烹饪某道菜的食谱。
It looks just like a recipe, how to cook something.
两者看起来完全一致，只是用稍有不同的语言表达。
Looks exactly the same, just in a slightly different language.
我们称之为Python、C或C++等编程语言。
We call it Python or c or c plus plus or whatever it is.
在深度学习这一人工智能发明中，我们构建了由大量神经网络和数学单元组成的结构，最终形成了这个庞大体系。
In the case of deep learning, this invention of artificial intelligence, we put a structure of a whole bunch of neural networks and a whole bunch of math units, and we make this large structure.
这就像由许多小型数学单元组成的交换机，我们把它们全部连接在一起。
It's like a switchboard of little mathematical units, and we connect it all together.
我们给它输入软件最终会接收的数据，然后让它随机猜测输出结果。
And we give it the input that the software would eventually receive, and we just let it randomly guess what the output is.
比如说，输入可能是一张猫的图片。
And so we say, for example, the input could be a picture of a cat.
而这个交换机的其中一个输出端就是猫信号应该出现的地方。
And and one of the outputs of the switchboard is where the cat signal is supposed to show up.
所有其他信号——代表狗的、大象的、老虎的——当我展示猫的图片时，这些信号都应该为零。
And all of the other signals, the other one's a dog, the other one's an elephant, the other one's a tiger, and all of the other signals are supposed to be zero when I show it a cat.
只有代表猫的那个信号应该显示为一。
And the one that is a cat should be one.
我通过这个由大量交换机和数学单元组成的庞大网络展示一张猫的图片，它们只是在做乘法和加法运算。
And I show at a cat through this big huge network of switchboards and math units, and they're just doing multiply and adds, multiplies and adds.
明白了吗？
Okay?
而这个交换矩阵，这个交换矩阵是巨大的。
And and and this thing, this switchboard is gigantic.
你提供的信息越多，交换矩阵就必须越大。
The more information you're gonna give it, the more the bigger the switchboard has to be.
杰夫·辛顿发现并发明的方法是，当你输入猫的信号，输入猫的图像时进行猜测。
And what Jeff Hinton discovered was invented, was a way for you to guess that put the cat signal in, put the cat image in.
那张猫的图像，你知道，可能由一百万个数字组成，因为比如说这是一张百万像素的图片。
And that cat image, you know, could be a million numbers because it's, you know, a megapixel image, for example.
它只是一大堆数字。
It's just a whole a whole bunch of numbers.
不知怎的，它必须从这些数字中点亮猫的信号。
And somehow from those numbers, it has to light up the cat signal.
好的。
Okay.
这就是关键所在。
That's the bottom line.
如果这是你第一次尝试，它只会产生一堆垃圾结果。
And if it the first time you do it, it just comes up with garbage.
然后系统会显示正确答案是猫。
And so it says, the right answer is cat.
因此你需要增强这个信号并抑制其他所有信号，并通过整个网络反向传播结果。
And so you need to increase this signal and decrease all of the other and back propagates the outcome through the entire network.
接着你给它展示另一张图片——这次是狗的图片。
And then you show it another now it's an image of a dog.
它尝试猜测，结果又输出了一堆垃圾信息。
And it guesses it, takes a swing at it, and it comes up with a bunch of garbage.
你会说：不对。
And you say, no.
不对。
No.
不对。
No.
答案是这是一只狗。
The answer is this is a dog.
我要你生成狗。
I want you to produce dog.
所有其他输出必须归零，然后我要反向传播这个结果，一遍又一遍地重复这个过程。
And all of the other switch all the out other outputs have to be zero, and I wanna backpropagate that and and just do it over and over and over again.
就像教小孩一样。
It's just like showing a a kid.
这是一个苹果。
This is an apple.
这是一只狗。
This is a dog.
这是一只猫。
This is a cat.
你只需要不断展示给他们看，直到他们最终理解。
And you just keep showing it to them until they eventually get it.
好的。
Okay.
总之，这项重大发明就是深度学习。
Well, anyways, that big invention is deep learning.
这是人工智能的基础。
That's the foundation of artificial intelligence.
一种通过示例学习的软件。
A piece of software that learns from examples.
这基本上就是我们所说的机器学习。
That's basically we machine learning.
一台会学习的机器。
A machine that learns.
因此，最初的重要应用之一就是图像识别，而其中最重要的图像识别应用就是放射学。
And so so one of the the big first applications was image recognition, and one of the most important image recognition applications is radiology.
所以他五年前预测，五年后世界将不再需要放射科医生，因为人工智能将席卷整个领域。
And so so he predicted about five years ago that in five years' time, the world won't need any radiologists because AI would have swept the whole field.
事实上，人工智能已经席卷了整个领域。
Well, it turns out AI has swept the whole field.
这完全正确。
That is completely true.
如今，几乎每位放射科医生都在以某种方式使用人工智能。
Today, just about every radiologist is using AI in some way.
然而具有讽刺意味的是，有趣的是放射科医生的数量实际上增加了。
And what's ironic though, what's what's interesting is that the number of radiologists has actually grown.
所以问题在于为什么。
And so the question is why.
这有点意思。
That's kind of interesting.
对吧？
Right?
确实如此。
It is.
事实上，最初的预测是三千万名放射科医生将被淘汰。
And so the prediction was in fact that thirty million radiologists will be wiped out.
但事实证明，我们需要更多放射科医生。
But as it turns out, we needed more.
原因在于放射科医生的职责是诊断疾病，而非研究影像。
And the reason for that is because the purpose of a radiologist is to diagnose disease, not to study the image.
研究影像只是服务于疾病诊断的一项任务。
This the image studying is simply a task to in service of diagnosing the disease.
现在的情况是，你能更快、更精确地研究影像，且永远不会出错或疲倦。
And so now the fact that you could study the images more quickly and more precisely without ever making a mistake and never gets tired.
你可以研究更多影像资料。
You could study more images.
你可以用三维而非二维形式进行研究，因为AI根本不在乎是用三维还是二维方式分析影像。
You could study it in three d form instead of two d because, you know, the AI doesn't care whether it studies images in three d or two d.
你甚至可以用四维方式进行研究。
You could study it in four d.
因此，现在你可以用放射科医生难以实现的方式分析影像，而且能分析更多影像。
And so the now you could study images in a way that radiologist radiologist can't easily do, and you could study a lot more of it.
所以人们能够进行的检测数量增加了。
And so the number of tests that people are able to do increases.
由于他们能够服务更多患者，医院运营得更好。
And because they're able to serve more patients, the hospital does better.
他们有更多客户，更多患者。
They have more clients, more patients.
因此，他们获得了更好的经济效益。
As a result, they have better economics.
当经济效益提升时，他们会雇佣更多放射科医生，因为他们的目的不是分析影像。
When they have better economics, they hire more radiologists because their purpose is not to study the images.
他们的目的是诊断疾病。
Their purpose is to diagnose disease.
所以问题在于，我最终要引出的核心是：目的是什么？
And so the question is that what I'm leading up to is, ultimately, what is the purpose?
律师的目的是什么？
What is the purpose of the lawyer?
这个目的改变了吗？
And has the purpose changed?
目的是什么？
What is the purpose?
你知道，我举的一个例子是，比如如果我的车变成自动驾驶，所有司机会失业吗？
You know, one of the examples that I gave is is that I would give is, for example, if my car became self driving, will all chauffeurs be out of jobs?
答案可能是否定的。
The answer probably is not.
因为对一些司机来说，对一些载你的人而言，他们可能是保护者。
Because for some perp for some chauffeurs, they for some people who are driving you, they could be protectors.
对一些人来说，他们是体验的一部分，是服务的一部分。
Some people, they're part of the experience, part of the service.
所以当你到达时，他们可以帮你处理事务。
So when you get there, they, you know, they could take care of things for you.
因此出于多种原因，并非所有司机都会失业。
And so for a lot of different reasons, not all chauffeurs would lose their jobs.
部分司机会失业，而许多司机会转行。
Some chauffeurs would lose their jobs, and many chauffeurs would change their jobs.
自动驾驶车辆的应用类型可能会增加。
And the type of applications of autonomous vehicles will probably increase.
你知道，这项技术会在寻找新家园方面得到应用。
You know, the usage of the technology within find new homes.
所以我认为必须回到工作的本质目的上来。
And so I I think you have to go back to what is the purpose of a job.
你明白吗？
You You know?
比如说，如果AI出现，其实我不认为我会失业，因为我的目的不是要处理大量文件。
Like, for example, if AI comes along, I actually don't believe I'm gonna lose my job because my purpose isn't to I have to look at a lot of documents.
我研究很多电子邮件。
I study a lot of emails.
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