#2465 - 迈克尔·谢伦伯格

而左派当时说，看吧。

And the left was like, look.

我们就跟着这个人吧。

We're just gonna, you know, go with this guy.

我认为他当时向左派许诺了更多自由主义的政策，但掌权后却迅速巩固成一个极端伊斯兰主义政权。

I think he was making promises to the left around allowing, you know, more, you know, liberalism, and then they came in and just consolidate into this really hard line Islamicist regime.

但他们至少有个领头人。

But they had a guy.

我们没有，你们知道，我们在委内瑞拉没有这样的人。

We don't have they don't you know, we don't have a guy in in Venezuela.

我们在伊朗也没有这样的人。

We don't have a guy in Iran.

我不知道古巴现在有没有真正能代表的人。

I don't know if there's anybody in Cuba, really.

你知道，在拜登政府时期，开放社会阵营和建制派人士曾支持过委内瑞拉的马查多女士。

You know, the in the older regime under, like, the Biden, the open society people, the open society establishment, they had somebody for Venezuela, this machado woman.

但特朗普上去就说，她没有足够的支持，所以她不属于我们这一边。

But Trump gets up there and he just goes, yeah she doesn't have enough support so she's not with us.

完了。

Gone.

你知道，他们意识到自己这边没有谁在反对派中拥有足够的街头威望能上台掌权。

You know like they recognize that they don't have there's nobody with a opposition you know street cred that can come into power.

所以我认为他们也知道这一点。

So I think they and they know that.

他们并不是对此一无所知。

They're not like unaware of that.

所以我觉得那些什么‘他们应该起来反抗’之类的说法。

So I think some of the, like, oh, they should rise up and whatever.

有点心不在焉。

It's a little half hearted.

我不确定他们真相信这种事情会发生。

I don't know that they believe that that's gonna happen.

他们显然没有提供任何实质性的支持。

They're certainly not they don't seem to be offering them, you know, material support.

没错。

Right.

所以这仅仅是一种象征性的表态。

So it's just a symbolic gesture to talk about it.

听起来是这样。

Sounds like it.

我的意思是，在这种和平而美丽的共产主义崩溃过程中，柏林墙和守卫最终只是顺其自然地放弃了，一切都体现在那种氛围里。

And, I mean, I in this kind of the this beautiful collapse of communism, which occurred so peacefully with the Berlin Wall and the guard eventually, just sort of like it's just in the vibes.

是的。

And Yeah.

守卫们只是说，是啊。

The guards are just like, yeah.

我们不再守卫这堵墙了，一切都结束了。

We're not guarding this wall anymore, and it's just over.

你知道吗？

You know?

就这样结束了。

And it was just over.

我当时觉得，这就像一种道德上的崩溃。

And I was like, it was a kind of like a moral collapse.

我不确定伊朗那边会不会也这样。

I'm not so sure that they're gonna get that in Iran.

看起来不像。

Doesn't seem like it.

看起来他们已经为此准备了很久。

It seems like they've been preparing for this for a long time.

伊朗人？

The Iranians?

是的。

Yeah.

他们已经固守阵地。

They're dug in.

现在是太阳当空，而他只是代表了我曾是IGRC、安全力量的一部分。

Now it's the sun, and he's just part of the he represents the the I was the IGRC, the the the security forces.

我的意思是，这是他们的人。

I mean, it's their guy.

我的意思是，这正是你会做的事。

I mean, it's what you would do.

这是团结在旗帜下。

It's rally around the flag.

这是典型的会发生的情况。

It's classic what happens.

但你知道，你永远无法预料。

And so but, you know, never you you never know.

我的意思是，这些人可能会进一步谈判，以满足特朗普政府的要求。

I mean, these guys then might just negotiate more what the Trump administration wants.

我认为特朗普政府的想法是：我们会持续杀死你们的领导人，直到你们选出一个愿意和我们谈条件的人。

I think the Trump administration is like, we'll just keep killing your leaders until we get somebody in there that will make a deal with us.

我认为这就是特朗普看待这个问题的方式。

I think that's I think that's how Trump thinks about it.

真的吗？

Really?

这只是我的最佳猜测。

That's my that's my best guess.

你在笑。

You're smiling.

你觉得这个

Do you think this

很可笑是因为它太真实了，你看看那些智库、白皮书、国务院的计划，你知道的，各种东西，但特朗普就是会听塔克的。

is funny because it's funny because it's it's so Joe, it's just like you just look at all the think tanks and all the white papers and the state department and the plan, you know, whatever, and it's just like Trump's just he's gonna listen to Tucker.

他会听雅虎的，然后决定该怎么做。

He's gonna listen to Yahoo, and he's gonna decide what to do.

本集由Visible赞助播出。

This episode is brought to you by Visible.

朋友们，这个季节没人想遇到的一件事就是被网络诈骗。

Folks, there's one thing nobody wants this season, and that's getting catfished.

不仅约会资料会给你带来风险。

And it's not just dating profiles that are putting you at risk.

大型无线运营商也是如此。

It's also big wireless carriers.

你知道那种类型的。

You know the type.

一开始看起来很棒，承诺低价，但一旦你被绑定，就会出现意外费用，账单远超你的预期。

Looks great at first, promises a low price, but once you're locked in, surprise fees and an expensive bill that isn't what you were expecting.

你的救星——Visible无线服务。

Your knight in shining armor, Visible wireless.

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It's one line wireless with unlimited data and hotspot for just $25 a month taxes and fees included.

这才是真正的积极信号。

Now that's a green flag.

最棒的是，Visible 完全是数字化的，你只需滑动一下就能快速切换。

The best part, Visible is all digital, so you can switch as fast as you can swipe.

别被无线运营商给骗了。

Don't fall for the trap of getting catfished by wireless.

访问 visible.com 了解更多信息，开始爱上你的无线运营商。

Visit visible.com to learn more and start loving your wireless carrier.

条款适用。

Terms apply.

详情请见 visible.com，了解套餐功能和网络管理信息。

See visible.com for plan features and network management details.

这样好吗？

Is that good?

我不确定这好不好。

I don't know if it's good.

我的意思是，我们还不知道。

I mean, I just we don't know yet.

我的意思是，我觉得其中一部分是，它能行得通吗？

I mean, I think part of it is, is it gonna work?

你们的一部分是道德上的考量，你们会想，但它真的能带来更好的结果吗？

Part of you guys is moral and you're like, but does it does it work to make have better outcomes?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我们正处于一片完全混乱的境地。

We're in a realm of absolute chaos.

我们同时也处在一个AI可能已经或即将驱动自主武器的时代。

We're also in a realm where AI is going to be powering autonomous weapons if not already.

我的意思是，这种事情正在发生。

I mean, that I mean, that is going on.

这太有趣了。

That is so interesting.

关于Anthropic和国防部之间发生的事情，这真的很有意思。

This thing with the Anthropic and the DOD and what's happening there, that is really interesting.

最初，Anthropic对允许他们使用自主武器持犹豫态度。

So initially, Anthropic was hesitant to allow them to use autonomous weapons.

对吧？

Right?

我不清楚具体情况，但你看到了OpenAI的自主武器负责人。

I don't know the status of it, but you saw the OpenAI, the head of OpenAI autonomous.

她是自主武器的负责人，我想。

It was a she's the head of autonomous weapons, I think.

我不确定我说得对不对，但她几天前刚辞职。

I'm not don't don't give me exactly right, but she just quit, like, couple of days ago.

这件事在X平台上引发了巨大轰动。

It was on X, and it was just, a huge story.

所以现在你们之间出现了一道裂痕。

So you have a bunch of you have you have you have a rift in between now.

现在我觉得，你知道，萨姆和埃隆都支持并与国防部继续合作，看起来Anthropic那边破裂了，然后哈格塞普就说，好吧，那我们要因为这个惩罚你们。

Now I think, you know, Sam and Elon are both on board and wanna keep working with the DOD, it looks like Anthropic broke and, you know and then and then Hagsept was like well but then we're gonna punish you for this.

这与一种民族主义愿景非常一致，也就是特朗普政府所秉持的：你的安全战略、经济战略、边境战略，全部都是一体的，你的产业战略也是如此。

That's very consistent with a kind of nationalist vision which is that which the Trump administration has which is that your security strategy, your economic strategy, your border strategy, it's all a sing your industrial strategy, it's all a single thing.

你的贸易战略，也全部是一体的。

Your trade strategy, it's all a single thing.

我认为对特朗普来说，你要么就是在展现力量、运用杠杆、要求更多，要么就是在经历有管理的衰退。

And I think for Trump, it's just you're either asserting power and and using your leverage and demanding more or you're engaged in managed decline.

你就是在放弃。

You're just giving up.

你知道吗？

You know?

我内心其实很矛盾，因为一方面，我倾向于支持这种观点：让我们在国内加大投资。

And I part of me, I'm of mixed minds on it because on the one hand, I'm with the kind of I kinda go, let's invest at home.

我们还有许多问题要解决，比如街头流浪者问题。

We have all the you know, we have Skid Row to clean up.

你知道，我们应该专注于这一点，而不是试图进行政权更迭、轰炸其他国家或制造其他问题。

You know, we should be focused on that, not on trying to do regime change or bombing other countries or creating other problems.

另一方面，我认为捍卫西方有一些道理。

On the other hand, think there's something right about defending the West.

我的意思是，捍卫西方文明，捍卫我们的制度、规范和自由价值观，但没有人真正这样做过。

I mean, defending Western civilization, you know, defending our our institutions, our norms, our liberal values, and and nobody's done that.

我们刚刚有一位掌权者，他开放了我们的边境，给乌克兰开了空白支票。

And we just had a guy in power that was that opened our borders, that kinda gave a blank check to Ukraine.

至少在特朗普身上，你看到的是一个愿意承担责任的人，而拜登则会说，我们会与盟友合作。

It seems like at a minimum with Trump, you have somebody that is taking responsibility in ways where Biden would be like, well, we're gonna do what you know, we're gonna work with our allies.

而这一切似乎都被决定于所谓的‘大教堂’——也就是媒体、智库和学术界这单一的体系。

And it was just all kind of like, it was like it was all kinda gonna be decided in this in this, you know, what famously calls the cathedral, you know, just the the the single thing of the media and the think tanks and the academics.

而特朗普却说：这行不通。

And and Trump was like, it's not working.

这个国家的工人阶级选我，就是要展现力量，要求我们对保护盟友和人民的投资获得更好的回报。

And the working class of this country elected me to to show strength and to demand a better return on our investment in terms of protecting our allies for our people.

所以这部分，我认为真的 overdue，也非常必要地阐明了西方为何独特，为何我们需要捍卫西方。

So that part of it, I think, is really overdue and really necessary in assertion of why the West is special, why we need to defend the West.

轰炸伊朗，替换领导人并让他的儿子马沙特掌权，就像委内瑞拉正在发生的事，这是正确的做法吗？

Is bombing Iran and replacing the, you know, the commanding with his son, Mashat, you know, is what's happening in Venezuela, is that the right approach to that?

我不知道。

I don't know.

但我觉得我们的制度正在崩溃。

But I think we were the system was was failing.

我的意思是，那个本应是自由、宽容的开放社会体系，却变得不容异己。

I mean, the open society system, which was supposed to be this liberal, you know, you know, system of tolerance, it became intolerant.

它变得极权了。

It became totalitarian.

它造就了一个审查工业复合体。

It created a censorship industrial complex.

他们把情报机构武器化了。

They they weaponized the intelligence communities.

我们开始卷入一些冲突，但这些冲突的起因并不明确，包括威尼斯。

We, you know, started getting ourselves into conflicts that we that was not clear why we were in them, including Venice.

我的意思是，抱歉，应该是乌克兰。

I mean, sorry, including Ukraine.

我的意思是，乌克兰战争之所以持续，是因为我们一直在向它提供武器。

I mean, with Ukraine, it's like that war only continues because we continue to to arm it.

如果我们只是说，算了，就以现在实际的边界线为准，达成协议吧。

Like, we stopped if we just were like, let's just have the just, you know, just cut a deal wherever the border is right now.

然后你就说，战争就到此为止。

And you're just like, that's where it's gonna stop.

那就可以，我的意思是，我不确定？

Then you can I mean, I don't know?

我不清楚是什么阻止了特朗普这么做。

I'm not sure what's preventing that from Trump.

我觉得他对普京感到不满。

I think he's annoyed with Putin.

但说实话，我的观点是，我不认为继续这场战争符合任何利益。

But, yeah, I mean, my view is, like, I don't see an interest in that war continuing.

我不明白这场战争对美国工人阶级或美国人民的整体利益何在。

I don't know how it's in the interest of the working of working class Americans or Americans.

我对伊朗、委内瑞拉和古巴也有同样的疑问，但我认为这与1945年至2024年间我们所处的模式完全不同。

And I have the same questions about Iran and Venezuela and Cuba, but I think that is a totally different paradigm than the one that we had from 1945 to 2024.

嗯，关于上一届政府所谓的宽容理念，这似乎只是一个说法。

Well, the the idea of tolerance for you know, with the last administration, that seems just to be a narrative.

它看起来更像是为了保持边境开放、增加蓝州人口、提高人口普查数据、获得更多国会席位，进而为永久选民铺平公民身份之路的一种政治策略。

It seemed to be a political strategy of keeping the borders open to increase populations in blue states, raise the census, get more congressional seats, and then a path to citizenship where you'd have permanent voters.

这看起来就是它的本质。

That's what it seems like.

而且，我们现在也发现，其中还牵涉大量医疗补助欺诈行为。

And then there's also a ton of Medicaid fraud that's wrapped up in that that we're now seeing.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这是其中一部分原因。

I think that's part of it.

我的意思是，《纽约时报》曾发表一篇文章，探讨拜登为何保持边境开放，但文章内容到底说了什么？

I mean, there were the Times did a piece on why Biden left the borders open, and it was a What was there?

那是一篇很有趣的文章。

It was a funny piece.

某种程度上，因为他状态太差了。

Like, there was this it was you know, part of it, he's so out of it.

对吧？

Right?

当时情况根本不清楚。

Like, there were just it was not clear.

情况并不明确。

Like, there wasn't clear.

有一次会议，他当时确实在场。

There was, a meeting where he was, yeah.

我们就做这件事吧。

We're gonna just do this thing.

他们某种程度上得出结论，我认为塞西莉亚·穆诺兹——这位较为温和的倡导者，曾任职于拜登政府——说过类似这样的话：拜登只是想满足左翼，他就是想给左翼他们想要的东西。

They kind of concluded that I think Cecilia Munoz, who's one of the more moderate advocates and was in the bomb administration, I think she said something like, Biden just wanted to give the left just felt like he wanted to give the left what they wanted.

而这正是索罗斯智库以及那些非常进步的移民团体一直在倡导的。

And that's what, you know, the Soros think tanks and the, you know, the very progressive immigration groups have been in, you know, have been advocating.

他在气候问题上也是这么做的。

He did the same thing on climate.

所以这说得通。

So it makes sense.

我知道埃隆经常谈论，哦，这是为了引进选民什么的。

I know Elon talks a lot about how, oh, it's about importing voters and whatnot.

也许吧，但甚至都不清楚这是否是一个能奏效的好策略。

Maybe, but it's not even clear that that's a good a strategy that's gonna work.

你知道的？

You know?

为什么不呢？

Why not?

因为首先，我们并不了解拉丁裔群体。

Well, because, first of all, we don't know the Latinos.

为什么我们假设所有拉丁裔都会投票给民主党呢？

Like, why are like, why do we assume Latinos are all gonna, you know, vote for Democrats?

如果你让他们都享受医疗补助和社会保障的话

Well, if you've got them all on Medicaid and Social Security

数据显示，欧洲的情况确实如此，移民中的犯罪率和社会福利使用率都更高。

The numbers there are it's it's actually more Europe is definitely the case that you have higher rates of crime and higher rates of social services among migrants.

在这里，拉丁裔移民传统上其实过得很好。

Here are Latino migrants traditionally, you know, you know, really thrive.

他们比欧洲大多数穆斯林移民的表现要好得多。

You know, they do much better than than the mostly Muslim immigrants in Europe.

所以，我不太相信这一点。

So I you know, I'm skeptical.

我的意思是，我还从大卫·肖尔那里了解到另一个数据，他是民主党顶尖民调专家之一，在2024年大选后接受伊扎·克莱因采访时提到，如果所有合格选民都参与投票，特朗普本会以三个百分点的优势获胜，而不是1.5个百分点。

I mean, the other thing I the other statistic that I learned from David Shore, who's like the one of the top Democrat pollsters when he was talking to Ezra Klein after the twenty twenty four elections, he was like, if all eligible voters had voted, Trump would have won by three percentage points rather than 1.5.

所以我觉得挺讽刺的，因为共和党人总是想方设法让投票变得更困难。

So it's also so I always think it's kinda funny because the Republicans are always, like, trying to make it harder for people to vote.

但按照这种计算方式，也许只是特朗普的情况，其他共和党候选人可能就不会赢了。

But under that calculation anyway, and maybe it's just Trump, maybe other Republicans won't vote.

让投票更困难？你指的是什么？

Harder for people to vote, what do you mean?

你是说邮寄投票吗？

You mean mail in vote?

是的。

Yeah.

就是整个试图限制投票的努力，

Just the whole effort to

但问题是，邮寄投票一直都被视为舞弊的渠道。

But the problem is mail in voting has always been a vector for fraud.

也许就是这样。

That's it may be.

我不知道这到底有多少。

I don't know how much of it there is.

我看过一些不同的说法。

I've seen different things on it.

几十年前就有人在说了。

Back, like, decades.

人们一直认为邮寄投票容易滋生舞弊。

People have been talking about mail in voting just being too open to fraud.

但话又说回来，也许吧。

Well, but then the but then maybe.

但问题是，这真的有好处吗？

But then the question is, does it really benefit?

我的意思是，如果大卫·肖尔说得对，如果所有有资格投票的人都投了票，特朗普的胜幅基本上会是现在的两倍。

I mean, in other words, if David Shore is right, if everybody who could vote had voted, Trump would have won, like, basically by twice the margin.

我不知道这是否一定正确，但当我看到像加利福尼亚这样的法律——那里不允许出示身份证时，我实在想不出任何善意的解释，除非你们就是想为选举舞弊开方便之门。

Well, I don't know if that's necessarily true, but when I see laws like what California has where you're not allowed to show ID, There's only I mean, I've tried tried to find some sort of charitable way where that would make sense other than you wanna open the door for fraud.

根本没有任何理由。

There's nothing.

他们所说的那种叙事，说什么穷人连选票都没有，就像卡玛拉·哈里斯那样。

This this narrative that they say, oh, poor people don't have, like, Kamala Harris.

我可不信那个家伙的话。

Don't I believe that dude.

他们连复印机都没有。

They don't have a Xerox machine.

没有。

No.

但你难道从没见过那种情况吗？

But don't you ever see the thing?

我觉得那是个家伙，我不确定他是不是为了免费的媒体曝光才这么做的。

I think it was a guy I don't if he did it for free press.

有个家伙四处采访，首先在加州大学伯克利分校采访了一些自由派人士。

A guy was going around interviewing well, first, interviewed liberals at, like, I think UC Berkeley.

他问：你觉得投票时应该出示身份证吗？

And he was like, you know, do you think that you should have to have an ID to vote?

他们回答：不觉得。

And they were like, no.

因为黑人没有身份证。

Because black people don't have IDs.

这简直太荒谬了

And, like That's just

因为你从美国国家公共电台听到了这种说法。

because you're hearing that on NPR.

当然了。

Of course.

但他们真的相信这一点。

But they believe that.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，但我不知道你有没有看过那个。

I mean, but then I don't know you saw that.

这个视频太惊人了，因为接下来他去了，我觉得是哈莱姆，或者纽约的一个黑人社区，去问黑人的问题。

It's an incredible video because then he goes to, like I think he goes to Harlem or he goes to, like, a black neighborhood in New York, and he was just ask asking black people.

他问：‘你身上有身份证吗？’

He's like, do you have an ID on you?

结果每个人都说：‘有。’

It was like, everybody was like, yeah.

你这是怎么了？

Like, what's the matter with you?

而且，我们刚刚经历了三年，必须出示身份证才能证明你接种了疫苗。

Well, it's also we just got done with three years of you need an ID to prove that you have been vaccinated.

所以你需要有这个证件才能上班、乘飞机，

So you need to be able to have that to go to work, to get on a plane,

去

to

去餐厅吃饭。

eat at a restaurant.

这毫无意义。

It didn't make

没有任何道理。

any sense.

这与几个月前刚刚发生的事情直接矛盾，你知道的。

It was so immediately contradicting what had just gone down, you know, months earlier.

这太蠢了。

It's just stupid.

嗯，那是因为左派想控制人们的行为。

Well, yeah, that was about that was because the left wanted to control people's behavior.

对。

Right.

关于投票，他们——哦，我知道，因为我跟我的进步派朋友、家人和亲友聊过，他们的态度非常明确：不行。

And on voting, they the the old I I know because I just when I talked to my progressive friends about it, what you know, and family and friends, it's it's very much like, no.

我们不能在投票上设置障碍，因为那正是吉姆·克劳时代的做法。

We can't put barriers on the way of voting because that's what they did during Jim Crow.

我的意思是，这又回到了那个根源。

I mean, that's where it goes back to.

这根本不是障碍，而是回归到根本。

All goes back not a barrier.

这仅仅是为了确保投票者是公民的一种保障。

It's just an insurance that you're a citizen while you're voting.

然后他们说，实际上欺诈行为非常少，他们就是这么说的。

And then they say there's really not much they say there's very little fraud.

我只是告诉你他们怎么说的。

I'm just telling you what they say.

我并没有说我自己同意。

I'm not saying I agree.

我只是说

I'm just saying

他们是谁，

Who is they,

啊？

though?

进步派？

Progressive?

是的。

Yeah.

你相信吗？

Do you believe that?

这完全是胡说八道。

That's horseshit.

这完全是胡说八道。

That's a horseshit.

我认为他们真的相信。

I think they believe it.

这么说吧，是的。

Put it that Yes.

我确实相信。

I do.

我觉得

I think

他们只是这么说，因为这是每个人都会说的话。

they just say it because that's the thing that everybody says.

我觉得这是一种群体行为。

I think it's a group thing thing.

我的意思是，如果你坐下来和任何一个理性的人交谈，而且没人盯着，没有摄像机对着他们，你问他们：这有道理吗？

I mean, I think if you sit down with any rational person and no one's watching, you know, there's no cameras on them, and you ask them, does that make any sense?

没人会说这有道理。

No one would say it makes any sense.

这个国家大多数公民都拥有某种形式的身份证件，或者能够轻松获得，因此要求投票选举美国总统的人证明自己的身份是完全合理的。

Most people in this country who are citizens have some form of ID or can get some form of ID, and it's entirely reasonable to ask people to prove that you are who you are if you're voting for the president of The United States.

这看起来相当合理。

That seems pretty reasonable.

我觉得这完全合理，而且我支持这一点。

I'm I I I find it totally reasonable, and I support it.

我只是说，如果你这么做，共和党可能会带来一些他们原本预期之外的结果，因为特朗普至少是个特殊情况。

Just saying that if you make it I'm just saying you may the Republicans may may result in outcomes that are not the predictable ones that they think they'll get just because Trump at least and Trump is maybe, you know, a special case.

但他成功动员了那些原本不愿投票的人。

But, I mean, he was able to turn out reluctant voters.

他激励了人们去投票。

Like, he motivated people to vote.

因为人们对过去四年发生的事情感到厌倦。

Because people were fed up with what had gone on in the last four years.

我认为开放边境是其中最主要的问题。

And I think that open border was the biggest one.

我的意思是，这是最重要的原因之一，因为人们只是感到绝望。

I mean, it was one of the biggest ones because people just felt hopeless.

这太疯狂了。

Like, this is crazy.

你所做的是，允许至少——如果你还算仁慈的话——一千万人进来。

Like, what you're doing, you're letting in what's equivalent at least if you're if you're just being charitable, it's 10,000,000 people.

这确实规模巨大。

It was it was huge.

如果你保守一点估算，那就是十个奥斯汀的人口。

If you're just being conservative, it's 10 times Austin.

你在四年里放进了十个奥斯汀那么多人，而你根本不知道他们是谁。

You let 10 Austins in in four years of people who you have no idea who they are.

是的。

Yeah.

美国人原本支持关闭边境，但当真正需要让那些已经进来的人离开时，所有的支持就都消失了。

And and Americans were on board with closing the borders, and then when it came time to actually asking all the getting those folks to leave that came in, the all the support disappeared.

对吧？

Right?

我的意思是，这其实是

I mean Well, it's

并不是要求他们离开。

not asking them to leave.

而是在家得宝门口随意抓捕，突袭场所，去餐厅，把人从家里拖出来。

It's showing up at Home Depot and just rounding people up and raiding places and going to restaurants and pulling people out of their houses.

我认为人们对于街头出现全副武装、戴着面具的警察感到非常不安。

And I think people got very uncomfortable with the idea of militarized police wearing masks on the street.

是的。

Yeah.

当你发现这些人只接受了七周的培训，还拿到五万美元的签约奖金，再了解到其中很大一部分是拉美裔，这就有点荒谬了。

And then when you find out that these guys have only been trained for seven weeks and there's they get a a $50,000 signing bonus, and then you find out that a giant percentage of them are Latino, which is kinda crazy.

你知道吗？那个在明尼苏达开枪射杀那个人的两个家伙，都是拉美裔。

You know, like the two guys who shot that guy in Minnesota, they're both Latino.

而且是的。

And yeah.

我的意思是，当你让完全未经训练、毫无准备的人去做这件事时，就会这样。

I mean, that's what you get when you have completely untrained, unprepared people.

整个就是这样。

Well, whole like that.

关于亚历克斯·帕雷迪的明尼苏达事件简直是一团糟。

The whole Minnesota thing with Alex Paredi is a complete clusterfuck.

我还没有看到任何核实信息，来确认那个说得通的叙述是否属实，但那个说得通的叙述是：他们在夺枪时，他的枪意外走火了。

I still not have I've not seen verification of whether or not the the the the narrative that makes sense is true, but the narrative that makes sense was that there was an accidental discharge of his gun as they were pulling it away from him.

嗯。

Mhmm.

然后，由于逮捕过程中一片混乱，他们以为他身上可能还藏着枪。

And then that led to them thinking that maybe he still had the gun on him because you're in the chaos of arresting someone.

有人喊他有枪，枪响了，然后他们就朝他开枪了。

Someone says he has a gun, a gun goes off, and then they shoot the guy.

是的。

Yeah.

我打赌，当他们进行正式评估时，会发现很多错误。

I bet when you go I bet when they do the proper evaluation of it, they're gonna find multiple mistakes.

当然。

I'm sure.

通过执法部门的调查。

By the law enforcement investigation.

还有那个女人被枪击的事件，有个家伙几周前差点被车撞到，还被车拖着走了。

That and then there was the thing with the woman who got shot where you have a guy who had almost been run over just a couple of weeks before and been dragged in his car.

开枪射杀她的那个人，之前也被另一辆车拖拽过。

The guy who shot her had been dragged by another vehicle.

我没看到那个。

I didn't see that.

我觉得他被拖了大约300英尺。

I think he got dragged like 300 feet too.

太疯狂了。

Something crazy.

所以当一辆车朝他冲过来时，你可以想象，这家伙因为之前的事已经患有创伤后应激障碍了，

So when a car is coming at him, you could imagine this guy's got some PTSD from that and

他本不应该这样，先生，他本不应该这样，不。

He should not have been sir he should not have been No.

还有亚历克斯、弗雷迪。

And also Alex Freddie

他开枪打中她的脸后，居然还说那个该死的婊子，这太离谱了。

He shouldn't have said that fucking bitch, like, after he shoots her in the face too.

这也太疯狂了。

That's crazy too.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，这种反应，如此冷酷无情，包括政府的反应，都太恶劣了。

I mean, the reaction the just the heartlessness of the reaction to the was terrible, including by the administration.

这大概就是为什么克里斯蒂·诺曼最终不得不离开的原因。

That's probably why Christy Noman ended up having to go.

但另一方面，这些抗议活动是有组织的。

But then on the other side, these protests are organized.

它们是有组织且有资金支持的，这一点也是人们需要明白的。

They're organized, and they're paid for, which is also something to be take that people need to understand.

这些并不是自发的抗议活动。

These are not organic protests.

这根本不是偶然发生的，偏偏就在你发现数亿美元欺诈行为的同一个地方发生。

It's not organic that it just happened to be taking place in the very same place where you found hundreds of millions of dollars in fraud.

对吧？

Right?

这可能是你在公共领域见过的最清晰、最明显的转移注意力手段之一——有人被付钱去抗议。

This is, like, one of the clearest, most obvious distractions you've ever seen, like, in the public arena, like, where you have these people who are being paid to protest.

他们付钱给这些人，让他们出去抗议。

They they give them money to go out there and protest.

他们给他们提供标语牌。

They give them signs.

他们在组织这一切。

They're organizing it.

他们派出信号小组。

They go signal groups.

他们在曝光所有这些移民与海关执法局的工作人员。

They're doxing all these different ICE workers.

他们查出了他们的车牌号码。

They find out what their license plates numbers are.

他们查出了他们住在哪里。

They find out where they're staying.

他们去酒店找他们。

They go to the hotel.

当地的警察被命令不得干预。

Cops the local cops are being told to stand down.

所以你面对的是这些因素汇聚在一起，导致了混乱。

So you've got it like this this convergence of all these factors that lead to chaos.

你知道，迈克·本茨也谈过这个。

And, you know, Mike Benz was talking about it.

他本质上是说，这是一个数学问题，如果这些因素展开，就会产生一定数量的结果。

He was essentially saying it's mathematical thing, and that if you have these things play out, you're going to have a certain amount.

是迈克·本茨说的，对吧？

It was Mike Benz, right, who was saying that?

会有一部分人，会出现一些事件。

It was a certain amount of people that are you're gonna have incidences.

你只是在数字上推演，会有一些特定数量的抗议活动。

You're just playing it out over the numbers, certain amount of these protests.

你有组织好的抗议活动。

You have organized protests.

你有未经训练的移民与海关执法局人员。

You have untrained ICE agents.

你面临大量的混乱。

You have a lot of chaos.

你有支持人们在街头尖叫的人。

You have support for people screaming in the streets.

有人被枪击了。

Someone gets shot.

砰。

Boom.

然后事情就发生了转折。

And then it moves the needle.

这是经过计算的。

And this is calculated.

是的。

Yes.

他们希望这种情况发生。

They want this to happen.

他们希望事情这样发生，因为这样一来，就能彻底摧毁那些原本对是否应该遣返所有非法移民持观望态度的人的支持。

They want it to happen this way because then this kills all the support for people that, you know, were kind of on the fence whether or not I should be deporting all illegals.

抱歉。

Excuse me.

他们应该，抱歉，是应该只针对暴力罪犯，还是怎样？然后还出现了这些奇怪的说法，比如，只有14%的被捕者是暴力罪犯。

What they should, excuse me, whether they should just go after violent criminals, and and then there's these weird narratives like, oh, only 14% are violent criminals that have been arrested.

其实60%都是罪犯。

He was 60% are criminals.

60%以上的人都是罪犯。

60% of the people plus were criminals.

那到底什么叫暴力罪犯？

And, like, what what by what definition violent criminals?

比如，他们进来这里抢东西，你就觉得没问题吗？

Like, what do you like, what do you is it okay if they just come in here and rip people off?

你对这种事就无所谓吗？

Like, are you fine with that?

我们只需要清除那些暴力分子吗？

It's just like the violent ones we need to get rid of?

就像

Like

我认为他们并没有。

I think they didn't yeah.

他们做得相当糟糕。

They did they did a fairly poor job of it.

为什么他们专注于明尼阿波利斯？

Like, why were they focused on on Minneapolis?

我认为大多数人不了解明尼阿波利斯左派有多激进，因为你以为它是个中西部城市，但实际上它有着悠久的激进左翼传统。

I think most people don't understand how radical the left in Minneapolis is because you think it's a Midwestern place, but it's actually got a long radical left tradition.

是的。

Yeah.

正如你所说，亚历克斯·普雷蒂几天前持枪并与警察发生冲突时，就应该被逮捕了。

And as you were saying, I mean, Alex Pretty, he should have been arrested several days before when he had a gun on him and got into an altercation with police.

他们当时就应该逮捕他，然后法官可以采取很多不同的措施，比如没收他的枪。

They should have arrested him then, and then they could have the judge could've done a lot of different things, but they could've taken away his gun.

他们可以对他发出限制令。

They could've put a restraining order on him.

所以下次他再出现时，人们都知道要留意他，那样他就会被拦在那个区域之外。

So the next time he showed up and people will know to look for him, then he would've been, you know, kept out of the area.

你知道他携带的那把枪的故事吗？

Do you know the story about the gun that he was carrying?

不知道。

No.

好吧。

Okay.

他携带的是一把SIG P320手枪，这种枪以容易走火而臭名昭著。

So he's carrying a gun called a SIG p three twenty, which is notorious for accidental discharges.

不是说这种枪已经惹上无数诉讼了嘛。

Not not mean there's lawsuits all over the place.

有视频显示，警察在警局里弯腰捡东西时，枪在枪套里走火了。

There's videos of cops in precincts bending over to pick something up, and the gun goes off in his holster.

这种事太多了。

There's a ton of these.

所以我不确定这是否完全准确，因为显然这是这类冲突和情境中的混乱所致。

So I don't know if this is completely accurate because this is obviously the fog of chaos of these type of altercations and situations.

但有一段视频被很多人分析过，他们的结论是：当你观看视频时，当一名ICE官员取出枪时，尽管他的手指没有放在扳机上，而是手握枪身、手指放在滑套上，当他移动时，枪似乎走火了。

But there's a video that many people have reviewed, and it's their conclusion that if you watch the video when one of the ICE officers removes his gun, even though he does not have his finger on the trigger, has his hand on the gun and his fingers on the slide, as he's moving off, it appears the gun goes off.

现在他们放大了画面，显示枪确实像是在走火，并且与枪声完全吻合。

Now they've zoomed in on it and shown that it does look like the gun's going off, and it does correspond with the sound of a gunshot.

好的。

Okay.

真的很难确定。

It's it's just hard to know.

你在视频里听到枪声了吗？

You hear a gunshot in the video?

是的。

Yes.

但我不知道这是否真实。

But I don't know if it's legitimate.

很难确定。

It's hard to know.

但如果这是其他类型的枪，比如格洛克，我会说这毫无道理。

But it but if it was any other gun like, say, it was a Glock, I would say that doesn't make any sense.

他的手指并没有放在扳机上。

His finger's not on the trigger.

它不会走火。

It's not gonna go off.

但这种枪以容易走火而闻名。

But that gun is notorious for going off.

网上有个家伙展示了一个视频，他操作枪的滑套，结果枪就走火了。

There's a guy online that he he shows a video where he takes the gun and he manipulates the slide and it goes off.

是的。

Yeah.

而且它在没有任何触碰扳机的情况下就击发了。

And it goes off without nothing touching the trigger.

没有人去拉它。

No one no one's pulling on it.

另一个问题是，有人会改装枪支。

It's just if you have the other problem is people alter guns.

明白吗？

Okay?

所以关于西格绍尔的问题是，据我所知，直到2017年，它们的扳机都比较轻。

So the issue with the SIG was they they had I I believe up to 2017, they had a lighter trigger.

而这个轻扳机如果枪支掉落或受到撞击，就会走火。

And this lighter trigger, if the gun was dropped or if something happened to it, it was going off.

他们认定，这把枪不像其他一些枪那样具有内部保险装置。

And they determined it's the gun does not have an internal safety like some other guns do.

我不是专家，所以我不清楚具体的扳机机制，但我的理解是，这个扳机机制和他们其他枪支不同。

It's I I'm not an expert, so I don't know exactly what the trigger mechanism is, but my understanding is that the trigger mechanism is different than their other guns.

比如，他们另一款枪以极其可靠著称。

Like, they have another gun that's notoriously reliable.

那是SIG P365。

It's a SIG p three sixty five.

你甚至可以把它摔在地上。

You could drop that gun.

它不会走火。

It's not gonna go off.

它并不以意外击发闻名，但P320却以这个问题出名。

It's not known for accidental discharge, but the three twenty is known.

网上有很多视频展示了这一点。

And there's tons of videos of people demonstrating this online.

有一个视频里，有人在射击场，枪突然在枪套里走火了，射击场教练说：‘刚才发生了什么？’

There's a video where they're on a range and a gun goes off in a guy's holster, and the range instructor says, what the fuck just happened?

这个家伙指着那把走火的枪，问：‘这是西格吗？’

And this guy, he points to this, you know, the the gun that went off, and he said, is that a Sig?

他回答：‘是的。’

And he goes, yeah.

他说：‘把这该死的东西从靶场拿走。’

He goes, get that fucking thing off the range.

所以这把枪真的这么出名。

So it's it's that notorious.

就是这个特定型号，偏偏亚历克斯·普鲁迪携带的正是这个型号，真是疯狂。

This one particular model, and it just happened to be the one particular model that Alex Pruddey was carrying, which is fucking crazy.

他的行为真的很鲁莽。

Well, his behavior was really reckless.

人们真的很难同时在脑子里保持两种想法。

I I I it's really hard for people to hold two ideas in their mind at the same time.

我觉得，冰块把这事搞砸了，很明显。

Like, ice messed that up, I think, clearly.

还有亚历克斯·普雷蒂，你看之前那段视频，他踢了那辆冰车的尾灯。

And Alex Pretty, mean, you see the earlier video, you know, where he kicks out the taillight of the ice vehicle.

对。

Right.

他把枪别在夹克的腰带上。

And he's I mean, he's got a gun in the waistband of his of his jacket.

枪被夹克遮住了。

He's hidden by the jacket.

他和警察发生了冲突。

He gets into this altercation with the police.

我发帖讨论这件事时没提这一点，但很多回复都说这是‘警察导致的自杀’。

I mean, I had when I posted about it, I didn't say this, but one a lot of the responses were suicide by cop.

人们都说这是‘警察导致的自杀’。

People were like suicide by cop.

我并不是在下这个结论，但他的行为——枪支选择的鲁莽，正反映了他在那些时刻的行为有多么轻率。

I mean, and I'm not making that claim, but I mean, his behavior was I mean, the the recklessness of the gun choice mirrors the recklessness of his behavior in those instances.

我听到有人说，哦，他只是在保护那个可怜的女性。

And I heard people being like, oh, well, he, you know, he was just defending that poor woman.

当时一名警察正在逮捕某人，而亚历克斯·普雷蒂介入了此事。

There was a police officer engaged in an arrest of a person, and Alex Pretty intervened in that.

我的意思是，我觉得你完全可以胡闹一下

I mean, I think you can mess around with

那件事。

that.

我不确定那是不是一次正式逮捕。

Was a little I don't know if it was an arrest.

那个警察推了这位女性。

The police officer shoved this woman.

是的。

Yeah.

他当时和某人发生了争执。

He put he was in an altercation with somebody.

你

You

人们不会这样，换句话说，人们会说，哦，你得设身处地想想，你觉得你是谁？你觉得这里发生了什么？

don't go people in other words, people go, oh, you gotta put yourself in what do think you're like, who do you what do think is going on here?

你应该把自己置身于两者之间。

Like, you should put himself in between that.

不。

No.

那位移民局官员并不是警察。

The way the the the ICE officer wasn't a police officer.

对吧？

Right?

那是移民局官员。

It's an ICE officer.

你会称他们为警察吗？

Do you call them police?

ICE特工对那位女士的反应让我很不安。

The way the ICE officer reacted to the woman did that bothered me.

他直接冲上去，狠狠地推了那位女士一把。

Like, he he just shoved this lady, like like, stepped forward and fully shoved her.

就在那时，亚历克斯·普雷迪介入了。

That's when Alex Prady gets involved.

是的。

Yeah.

然后催泪喷雾被拿出来了，接着

And then pepper spray comes out, and then

亚历克斯·普雷迪本该拍下这一切。

And Alex Prady should have absolutely filmed that.

应该把整个过程都拍下来。

Should have filmed the whole thing.

这正是

That that's exactly

应该怎么做。

what should done.

我们正在拍。

Were filming it.

很明显。

It was clear.

到处都有摄像头。

There's cameras all over the place.

但但别。

But but don't

我的意思是，多个角度。

I mean multiple angles.

是的。

Yeah.

但我觉得这种行为并不恰当，这不符合传统，我的意思是，我认为有一种非暴力的左翼传统，实际上非常美好且富有灵性。

So but it's like, I just don't think that's appropriate behavior Let's that's go and get that's not that's not the tradition of, like man, I think there's a nonviolent left wing tradition that's actually quite beautiful and spiritual.

这是梭罗、甘地和马丁·路德·金。

It's Thoreau and Gandhi and King.

那并不是在明尼阿波利斯发生的事。

That's not what was going on in No.

明尼阿波利斯。

Minneapolis.

那完全不是正在发生的事。

That's not at all what's going on.

这正是这类活动被组织起来时的问题所在。

This is a part of the problem with these things being organized.

对吧？

Right?

有组织的、有报酬的抗议，以及人们被叙事煽动而激进化。

Organized, paid protests, and also people being radicalized by narratives.

当然，与民权运动时期不同，现在还有社交媒体。

Then, of course, very different than what was going on with the the civil rights movement, you have social media.

所以人们被极端地推向某个方向，但并不清楚这是否是自发的。

So people are, like, radically pushed in one direction or another, and it's not clear whether or not that's organic.

这并不清楚。

It's not clear.

这是人民的声音，还是机器人农场在推动事情朝某个方向发展？

Is this the voice of the people, or is this bot farms that are pushing things in one direction or another?

我的意思是，有很多人我谨慎地关注他们在X平台上的帖子，因为我知道他们是AI生成的。

Is is it I mean, there's there's a lot of people that I I I cautiously watch their their posts on on x where I know that they're AI.

我知道那是AI。

I know it's AI.

我光看他们的写作风格就能看出来。

I can just tell by the way they write.

现在。

Now.

现在X平台上充斥着大量AI生成的垃圾内容。

There's so much AI slop on x right now.

是的。

It's Yeah.

这很奇怪，因为它搅浑了水，破坏了讨论，同时也把人们推向极端——要么右倾，要么左倾。

It's weird because it does muddy the water, and it does fuck with discourse, but it also radicalizes people one way or the radicalizes people towards the right, radicalizes people towards the left.

这不好。

It's not good.

我认为这个家伙，不管他有什么心理问题，这些问题似乎确实存在。

And I think this guy, whatever his mental health struggles were, they they appeared to exist.

他看起来本来就是一个有问题的人。

It it seems like he was a troubled guy already.

于是，某种事物出现了，成为他们所认同并为之奋斗的事业，因为他们的生活可能一团糟，内心也可能混乱不堪。

So a thing comes along that defines them, a cause that they're going to stand up for and fight for because their life's probably a fucking mess, and their mind is probably a mess.

他们看待这件事，就像一个非黑即白的二元对立局面。

And they look at this they look at it like it's this black and white binary situation.

对于

For

当然。

sure.

好人和坏人。

Good guys and bad guys.

让我们干掉所有这些法西斯，他去砸车尾灯，还参与跟移民局官员的冲突。

And let's fuck all these fascists, and he's kicking taillights and, you know, and getting involved in pushing matches with ICE agents.

这太疯狂了。

It's like, that's crazy.

所有这些行为都可能让你被捕。

Like, all that stuff can should and can get you arrested.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，关于有组织的行动，记得民权运动其实是高度组织化的。

I mean, I think on the organized issue, remember, like, the civil rights movement was really well organized.

而且在某种程度上，实际上是人们

And in terms of was like, actually People

他们并没有为此得到报酬。

weren't being paid for it.

这件事也没有在社交媒体上进行推广。

It wasn't being promoted on social media.

这也不是人们的本职工作。

It wasn't people's job.

没错。

Right.

现在美国有一些失业的人，靠当职业抗议者为生。

There are people in America right now that are unemployed that are paid protesters for a living.

哦，我的意思是，整个左翼非政府组织领域基本上就是这样。

Oh, I mean, that's the entire, like, left wing NGO sector is basically that.

没错。

Right.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，就是这样。

I mean, that's like that.

我们在旧金山看到过，关于无家可归者的问题。

We saw I see it at level of San Francisco and for homelessness.

他们只是去政府资助或慈善资助的非营利组织上班，然后在业余时间做所有那些公民不服从的事情。

They just go and you work at a n g a government funded or sorrows funded NGO, and then you do all that civil disobedience stuff on your free time.

但我觉得你说得对，你说得对，因为问题不在于组织本身。

And but I was I just think I think that you're you're right you're right when you're saying, like because I think it's the problem is not the organization.

问题在于明尼阿波利斯的那个组织，其目标就是制造出 exactly 发生的那些事。

The problem is that the organization in Minneapolis had a goal of causing exactly what occurred.

是的。

Yes.

民权运动时期的组织，目标是废除饮料柜台的种族隔离。

The the the organization around the civil rights movement was to desegregate soda counters.

是的。

Yes.

你知道吧？

You know?

所以其中一个观点是，我的意思是，我们再把视角拉远一点。

And so one of them was about actually I mean, the other thing is that brought pull back a little bit further.

马丁·路德·金和民权运动的宗旨是肯定我们自由民主的西方文明。

Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement was about affirming our liberal democratic western civilization.

黑人希望成为其中的一部分。

Black people wanted to be a part of it.

是的。

Yes.

像你所说的那种——我们想开放边境、取消警察经费，本质上是攻击所有这些自由民主文明的制度，这就不一样了。

This stuff where you're like, we wanna, you know, open the border and defund the police and basically start attacking all of these institutions of liberal democratic civilization, that's different.

这是激进的左翼。

That's a radicalized left.

这从根本上是不同的。

It's what gets Fundamentally different.

他把这定义为自杀式的共情。

He he defines it best as suicidal empathy.

我不赞同加德的这个观点。

I don't agree with Gad on that.

是吗？

No?

你不觉得这是自杀式的共情吗？

You don't think it's suicidal empathy?

我觉得这既不是自杀式的，也不是共情的，因为共情就是共情，像是……

I don't think it's either suicidal or empathic because empathy is empathy is like,

从根本上说，这适用于许多进步主义理念，不只是移民问题。

fundamentally that to a lot of progressive ideas, not just the immigration thing.

我不认为他一定是从移民问题开始谈自杀式共情的，实际上他早就开始谈论这个了。

I don't think he'd necessarily I think it was actually long before the immigration thing that he was talking about at suicidal empathy.

其核心观点是，你需要法治才能拥有一个安全和平的社会。

The idea being that you need the rule of law to to have a a safe and peaceful society.

是的。

Yes.

那部分是对的。

That part's true.

你确实如此。

You do.

那部分是对的。

That part's true.

对。

Yeah.

你需要没有暴力。

You need you need no violence.

你需要没有犯罪。

You need no crime.

当你把罪犯抓起来却直接释放，取消了保释金，还做这些事的时候——如果你愿意戴铝箔帽，那你会这么做，因为你想要混乱，因为你想要混乱，这样你就能制定更多规则，加强对人们的控制，从而掌控整个文明。

And when you're taking criminals and just releasing them from jail and you have no cash bail and you're doing all these things, If you wanna put on the fucking tinfoil hat, you would do that because you want chaos because you want chaos so you can have more rules and tighten down on people and have more control over the the civilization.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，想想看，我认为允许更多暴力犯罪并不具有同理心。

I mean, think in that I mean, I think, like, it's not empathic to allow more violent crime.

我认为这并不是对受害者的同理心。

Like, I don't think that's empathy towards victims.

所以我不认为这能被称为同理心。

So I don't think I wouldn't call it empathy.

不仅如此，当你观察这些人的本质时——我花了很多时间研究他们，因为我曾经也是其中之一——他们憎恨西方文明。

And not only that, but, like, when you look at, like, these who these folks are, and I spent a lot of time looking at them and was one of them, they hate Western civilization.

他们憎恨美利坚合众国。

They hate The United States Of America.

他们憎恨资本主义。

They hate capitalism.

这没错。

Like, it's Right.