#2503 - 埃里克·韦因斯坦

这其实是科学、猜测和十足的勇气的结合。

So this is a combination of science, guesswork, and raw courage.

最让人惊叹的是，她问了一句：我能解吗？

Like the the the most marvelous thing about that exchange is she says, can I solve?

他甚至怀疑自己是不是听错了。

And there's like, he's not even sure he's hearing her properly.

最后，他终于说：好吧。

And then finally he says, okay.

这就是典型的排外行为。

That's that's gatekeeping.

我能把这篇文章放进档案里吗？

Can I put this article on the archive?

我能到你们系做一场讲座吗？

Can I give a seminar in your department?

我就想把这道谜题解出来。

I want to solve the puzzle.

我们现在争论的很多点在于，只有弦理论家才有资格去尝试解开这个谜题。

And a lot of what we're arguing about is that the string theorists are the only ones who have the right to try to solve the puzzle at the moment.

想象一下，如果有个规矩，只有里克——那个猜到字母是R的可怜人——才有权解谜，当她问‘我能解这个谜题吗？’

So imagine that somehow there's a rule that only Rick, poor Rick who guesses that there's an r, imagine that he's the only one allowed to solve the puzzle, and when she asks, may I solve the puzzle?

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

不行。

No.

你没资格。

You can't.

这是伪科学。

That's pseudoscience.

你是个骗子。

You're a charlatan.

这就是所谓的旁门左道物理学。

You're that's you know, that is crank physics.

所以我们现在面临的问题是，有一群人垄断了准入权，他们数学很强，但物理直觉极差。

So that's what the problem that we're facing is is that we've got one group that got control of the gatekeeping, who is very good at mathematics, extremely bad at physics.

他们重新定义了什么是物理学、什么是好科学，好像只有他们才有资格猜这个谜题。

And they've redefined what physics is and what good science is, where they're the only ones who are guessing the puzzle.

他们自己根本猜不出谜题，别人一提出想法，就被当成昨天的荒唐故事打发掉。

They can't guess the puzzle, and everyone else is like, here's a crazy story from yesterday.

我甚至不能说我在物理系做过报告，可正常人谁都会觉得这事儿确实发生过。

I wasn't allowed to say that I gave a talk in the physics department, even though any normal person would say that that happened.

我去加拿大一家物理研究机构访问时，也不被允许这么说。

And I wasn't allowed to do that when I visited a, physics institution in Canada.

我不被允许说我去了一周，更不被允许说我的讲座持续了九个小时。

I wasn't allowed to say that I was visiting for a week, nor was I allowed to say that I gave a seminar that lasted nine hours.

可你刚才不就说了吗？

But you just did?

是的。

Yeah.

你是个违法者吗？

Are you a lawbreaker?

我现在就是在违反规则，因为我实在忍无可忍了。

I'm breaking the rules now because I've now I've had it.

我本来答应过不这么做，但看到那些失踪的科学家之后，我改变主意了。

I agreed I agreed to not do this, and I'm and with these missing scientists, I've changed my mind.

我再也不想跟这些人打交道了。

I'm not gonna deal with these people anymore.

现在科学界打压不同观点的状况，简直让人不寒而栗。

And whatever is going on with science and the suppression of different ideas is terrifying.

眼下就处在这样一个局面。

Right now, have a situation.

我之前在芝加哥大学做过一场演讲。

I, you know, I gave a talk at the University of Chicago.

这件事没有任何记录。

There's no record of it.

是谁让你做这些演讲，又是谁让你别留下记录？

Who's asking you to do these talks, and who's asking you to not give a record?

你不用点名具体是谁。

You don't have to name names.

是的。

Yeah.

就是一些特定的人。

Particular people.

一般来说，有趣的是，邀请我去物理系演讲的，反而是每个系里最敢说真话的人。

In general, the funny part is that the people who ask me to give talks in the physics departments are the most courageous person in each department.

问题在于，你最后怨恨的那个人——居然敢告诉你不能在系里正式开这个讲座——其实正是帮你安排住宿、安排场地的人，他们承受着来自校方最大的压力。

So the problem is that the person that I you you end up feeling resentful towards, how dare you tell me that I can't give this talk in this department officially, is the person who's arranging for your stay and is arranging for the the room, and they are under the most pressure from the institution.

所以校方逼着他们说：你可以开讲座，但不能在社交媒体上讨论这件事，对吧？

So the institution is forcing them to say, you you're allowed to do give the talk, but you're not allowed to talk about it on social media, and you're not allowed to Right.

你可以做宣传，但就是不能说你正在做这件事。

Advertise that you're doing it, you're not allowed to say that you're doing it.

所以在德克萨斯大学物理系这个例子中，我被允许说我要在卡奇研讨会发言。

So in this case, in the case of of UTex's physics department, I was allowed to say I'm speaking in the Carch Group seminar.

这就像戴安全套，防止物理系‘怀孕’。

It's like a condom to make sure that the physics department doesn't get pregnant.

但这难道不特别荒谬吗？

But isn't that really bizarre?

因为德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校本该是来纠正其他大学所有荒唐事的地方。

Because University of Austin, Texas was supposed to be a university that fixed all the bullshit that was wrong with other universities.

很多。

Much

比这还离谱。

more insane than that.

这里曾是史蒂文·温伯格的家，他从哈佛搬到德州，因为石油资金用来买顶尖人才。

This was the home of Steven Weinberg who moved from Harvard to Texas because the money, the oil money was used to buy brains.

所以德州实际上是从哈佛挖人，比如数学系的约翰·泰特，还有史蒂文·温伯格——他可能是当时最伟大的在世理论物理学家。

So basically Texas raided Harvard for people like John Tate in the math department, Steven Weinberg who was the probably the greatest living theorist.

这延续了来自北卡罗来纳大学教堂山分校的布莱斯·德威特团队，那个团队当初是受阿纽·贝恩森委托，专门研究反重力的。

And that was the continuation of the Bryce DeWitt group from North Carolina Chapel Hill that was set up to do antigravity by Agnew Bainson.

你就站在一个了不起的物理系旁边，它的历史简直离奇，还真的跟反重力扯上过关系。

So you're right next to an amazing physics department with a crazy history that in fact touched anti gravity.

这种地方，全国也没几个，真正在物理系留下过这种传承。

This is one of the one of the tiny number of places that has a a real legacy in that department.

我那时候去那里讲引力、讲暗能量，其实我一直都在骗人，骗了大半辈子，骗大家说我和物理圈没关系，就是因为这种压力。

And I I was speaking there on gravity, on dark energy, and it look, I've been lying my whole life about my relationship with the physics world because of this pressure.

他们一听我是物理学家就不愿意听，所以我只好说自己是个表演者。

They can't listen to me if I say I'm a physicist, so I say I'm an entertainer.

是的。

Yeah.

但别人就会问，你干嘛非得这么干？

But that people say, well why would you do that?

你明明对这些内容了如指掌，干嘛说自己是艺人呢？

Why would you say that you're an entertainer when you obviously are conversant at all this stuff?

答案就是，我不想死。

And the answer is, I don't wanna die.

我不想失去走进物理系的资格。

I don't wanna lose my ability to enter a physics department.

所以我干脆扮演一个完全不符的身份。

So I I take on this completely wrong persona.

而且，我这儿还有邮件记录呢。

And, you know, I have the emails.

你不是在做报告。

You're not giving a talk.

你是在5308房间跟人聊天。

You're having conversations in Room 5308.

真写着‘你不是在做报告’？

It literally says you're not giving a talk?

我可以读他们写给我的那些邮件。

I could read what it is that they write to me.

那为什么呢？这种正式的说法或者标签，到底有什么好处？

So Why but why what is the benefit of this formal declaration or this formal designation of the way you're talking?

当年我在加拿大一个物理研究所时，有人告诉我：我们担心你会拿这个来给自己贴金。

So when I was at a physics institute in Canada, I I was told, we're worried that you're going to use it to legitimize yourself.

对啊，我就是要这么做。

It's like, I'm going to do that.

当然了，我当然要这么做。

Of course, I'm going.

我可是哈佛的博士，你们是不是傻？你们真以为我就是个播客嘉宾？

I have a PhD from Harvard, you stupid I I mean, like, you you guys imagine I'm I'm I'm a podcast guest?

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You just search the name you want, buy it, and then you're ready to build.

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No hidden fees, no weird upsells.

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没错。

Right.

就是一个普通人，有点古怪的想法罢了。

Just a regular dude with some wacky ideas.

没错。

Right.

所以我的想法是，我有

And so the idea is I have

扮演这个角色，而不是说‘让自己变得合法’——这说法真够奇怪的。

to play that character as opposed to I have Legitimizing yourself is a very bizarre phrase.

你跟我说说看。

Tell me that.

因为这话默认你本来就不合法。

That's because it's assuming that you're not legitimate.

你明白我的意思吗？

Do you know what I'm saying?

我觉得你没听懂我的意思。

I don't think you're understanding this.

不是的。

But no.

我听懂了。

I am understanding it.

但从他们的角度看，说你用这个来‘ legitimize’自己和你的想法，简直太荒谬了，因为他们根本就假设你本来就不够正统。

But but from their perspective, saying that you're gonna use it to legitimize yourself and your ideas is a really crazy way to phrase it because, like, you're they're acting from the assumption that you're not legitimate.

所以他们说的是，你还记得吗，我觉得是里根，搞混了是谁。

So that's they're you remember when, like, I think Reagan thought forget I who it was.

里根以为那些导弹能回收？

Reagan thought there were recallable missiles?

嗯，你本来就可以让它们掉头回来。

Well, you could turn them around?

对。

Right.

不好意思。

Sorry.

我刚才想错了。

We changed my mind.

所以，高空跳伞的人也等于自杀式跳伞？

So Like a base jumper was also a suicide jumper?

在二楼。

On 2nd Floor.

走到一半，他直接撂挑子不干了。

Halfway, and he's like, fuck this.

不是。

No.

我确实挺喜欢的。

I I like Yeah.

特别喜欢。

A lot

很多从金门大桥跳下去还活着的人，后来都说：我真的很爱生命。

of these people who survive jumping off the Golden Gate Bridge, they learn, like, I I love life.

对。

Yes.

没错。

Yes.

大多数

Most of

他们这些人。

them.

他们获得了新生。

They're reborn.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我想说的是，问题在于我确实拥有这些背景，但这不是在炫耀。

So what I would say is the problem is that I am I don't I don't this is not a boast.

你知道的，我通常不会先拿我的资历说事。

As you know, I don't usually put my credential first.

我大概是从体制内出走的最顶尖的叛逃者，一个异类反叛者。

I'm probably the most blue chip defector from the institutions, mutant mutineer.

我们就这么称呼吧。

Let's put it call it that.

我拥有近乎完美的履历，而这恰恰是个问题。

I have a I have essentially perfect credentials, and that's the problem.

所以这根本不是在质疑你是否要为它正名。

So it's not a question about you're gonna legitimize it.

我早就用哈佛博士、麻省理工博士后、国家科学基金会博士后、海军研究办公室资助、全国顶尖、斯隆基金会得主这些头衔证明了自己。

I already legitimized myself by Harvard PhD, MIT postdoc, NSF postdoctoral fellow, ONR, top in the country, Sloan Foundation grantee.

我待过数学系、物理系、经济学系。

I've been in math, physics, economics departments.

我的背景简直无懈可击。

I'm so bulletproof.

所以问题就在这儿。

So that's the problem.

问题就在这儿。

That's the problem.

问题就在这儿。

That's the problem.

你并不是个怪人。

It's not that you're a kook.

我刚才就是想说这个

That's what I was what I

我本来就是这个意思。

was trying to say.

你没明白。

You didn't understand.

不是的。

No.

我明白。

I do understand.

我只是不明白，他们为什么要这样对你。

I just don't understand why they want to do that to you.

因为这太奇怪了。

Because what's bizarre.

就是这个说法。

Narrative.

好吧。

Okay.

我才是对这个叙事最大的威胁。

I am I am the greatest danger to the narrative.

我是美国关注人数最多的数学家。

I'm I'm the most followed mathematician in The United States.

也许是全世界，汉弗雷，甚至超过全世界。

Maybe the world, Hanafrey, maybe above it.

对这个叙事的威胁，才是问题所在。

That danger to the narrative is the problem.

具体来说，对于不了解我们讨论内容的人，要让这个节目独立成立，那些不知道你工作的人，为什么他们这么抗拒给你平台、不承认你？你到底哪里让他们觉得有威胁？

Well, specifically for people who don't know what we're talking about, what is to make this a stand alone show, the people that are not aware of your work, what is it about you and your ideas that they are so hesitant to platform or legitimize or why you're such a danger?

好吧。

Okay.

2001年的时候，我就说过，抵押贷款支持证券会对世界构成巨大威胁。

So in 2001, I said mortgage backed securities were a great danger to the world.

我发表了最早一批关于流动性不足证券定价风险的论文之一。

I had one of the first published papers on the danger of illiquid of the pricing of illiquid securities.

我上了克里斯·威廉姆森的节目，他问我拜登和特朗普谁会赢。

I went on Chris Williamson's show, and he asked me who's gonna win, Biden or Trump.

我说，你连拜登能不能撑到十一月都不知道。

I said, you don't even know whether Biden's gonna make it to November.

我说，民主党的一些代表联系我，让我别再提拜登的健忘问题。

I said that the people, representatives of the Democratic Party reached out to me and said, stop talking about Biden's dementia.

你需要确认自己看到的是真实发生的事。

You need your affirmation that you're seeing something real.

他们已经安排了三个人组成委员会来接替总统的位置。

We've put in three people as a committee to replace the president.

我说，这事儿真能让我感到安心吗？

And I I said, like, I'm supposed to feel good about that?

所以他们到底有没有听你的建议？

So I They keep did what they told you?

是的。

Yeah.

他们找了三个人？

They put in three people?

他们成立了一个三人委员会，要是你知道那三个人是谁，你肯定高兴得不得了，别再说了。

They put in a committee of three people, and if you knew who those people were, you'd be pleased as punched, so shut up.

他们真是这么跟你说的？

That's what they said to you?

没错。

Correct.

你要是知道他们是谁，就会特别高兴，所以别吭声？

You would be really happy, so shut up?

对。

Yeah.

他们连那三个人是谁都没告诉你？

They didn't even tell you who the people were?

我觉得他们确实选了，只是我刚好给忘了。

I think that they did, and I've conveniently forgot them.

其中一个人可能是首席顾问。

One of them might have been the chief of staff.

真的吗。

Wow.

所以我的意思是，我得说清楚这一点。

So It's like But I but I say this.

对吧？

Right?

我不是故意要透露，我平时保守的机密多了去了，比如涉及国家安全的事，我都得藏着。

And I'm not trying to I mean, I keep lots of secrets that people ask me to keep that I should keep, things that having to do with national security, for example.

但这些人能力不足，反而给我们带来危险。

But these people are incompetent, and they're a danger to us.

现在这种弦理论的说法，简直就是个大麻烦。

And right now, the the string theory narrative is a complete danger.

问题不在弦理论本身。

It's not string theory that's the problem.

而是它现在成了唯一的选项。

It's the it's the only game in town.

所以，你知道，当时大家的表情很明显。

And so, you know, there was a look.

有些人宁愿赌上自己的全部信誉，只为了让我闭嘴。

People are willing to spend their entire credibility just to make me go away.

你能简单说说吗？弦理论到底哪里出了问题？是它不够完整，还是它根本没产生实际成果？

Could you briefly just describe like what what is the so there's not a problem with string string theory or string theory not complete or a string theory read has it reaped actual results?

从数学上讲，它确实取得了成果，弦理论家们也偶尔在量子场论这个领域做出过非常出色的工作。

Mathematically, it's reaped results, and string theorists have occasionally done really great work in in a subject called quantum field theory.

但量子场论并不是关于现实世界中量子场的理论。

But quantum field theory isn't about the quantum field theory of the world.

量子场论就像微积分一样。

Quantum field theory is like calculus.

这是一种非常有用的东西，是在物理学中发展起来的。

It's some thing that's very useful, and it grew up in physics.

但我们现在发现，量子场论其实跟一些与物理完全无关的纯数学问题有关。

But we've now found out that quantum field theory has to do with pure problems in mathematics that have nothing to do with physics.

而他们没做的是，没有真正触及现实世界的问题。

And what they haven't done is they haven't dealt with the physical world.

所以如果从物理学的角度看，为什么我们对物理学的关注，远超过其他几乎所有科学领域，除了生物学？

So if you take physics, why why do we care about physics so much more than really almost any other aspect of the sciences other than biology?

我曾在纽约深科技周做过一次演讲，给那些朋友点个赞，我把重点放在幻灯片上，列了三点。

I had to give a talk at the New York Deep Tech Week, shout out to those guys, and I I put it on the slide as three things.

就是‘砰’、‘轰’、‘嗖’。

There's boom, vroom, and zoom.

好记。

Easy to remember.

‘砰’指的是武器。

Boom is weapons.

物理学会催生武器。

Physics will create weapons.

除了生物技术，其他领域都难以与之相比。

You'll dwarf every everything else with the possible exception of biologicals.

“Vroom”代表能源，而能源的故事，本质上就是繁荣与掌控的故事。

Zoom vroom is energy, and the story of energy is basically the story of prosperity and control.

如果你看看财富和化石燃料的消耗量，就会发现一个几乎一对一的关联：哪个国家人均消耗得多，哪个国家就更富裕。

If you look at wealth and the amount of fossil fuels burned, it's more or less like a one to one correlation as to which nations are rich and poor per capita.

“Zoom”涵盖其他所有方面。

Zoom is everything else.

它是推进技术。

It's propulsion.

它是计算能力。

It's computation.

它是通信技术。

It's communication.

这些因素加在一起，基本上就定义了全球经济和国际秩序。

And those things, if you if you take them together, more or less define the economy in the world order.

物理学是我们成为现代人类的核心所在。

Physics is the center of what makes us modern humans.

到了二十世纪五十年代，情况变得太危险了。

And it became too dangerous in the nineteen fifties.

四十年代其实也够糟的，原子弹已经很可怕了，但还没到氢弹那种程度。

Even the forties, you know, atomic weapons are extremely bad, but they're not hydrogen bombs.

到了1952年11月，一切突然变了，我们变得太过危险了。

Somehow, in November '52, everything changed, and we became we became too dangerous.

物理学家群体本是最有力量的一群人，却最终变得毫无作为。

The the community of physicists is the most powerful group of people made into completely ineffectual humans.

你觉得这是有意为之的吗？

And do you think this is by design?

有一部分是。

Partially.

那它的目的是什么呢？

And what what what was the purpose of it?

你说物理学家变得太危险了，想法也变得太危险了，意思是武器会变得极其强大，以至于必须有人出来阻止和限制它？

By by saying that you became that physicists became too dangerous, the ideas became too dangerous, is the idea that the weapons would become so immense and powerful that they had to do something to stop and curb

对啊。

that?

我们根本不知道该怎么控制它。

Well, we didn't know how to control it.

对吧？

Right?

比如说，1940年的时候，我们设立了一个叫参考委员会的机构，我敢打赌你的听众从来没听说过。

So in other words, for example, in the in 1940, we set up something called the reference committee, which I'm sure your listener have never heard of.

这个参考委员会是隶属于国家资源委员会的。

And the reference committee lived inside of the National Resource Council.

那它为什么这么重要呢？

Now why was it important?

因为链式反应物理当时太热门了。

Because chain reaction physics was so hot.

中子被发现之后，你就把中子想象成子弹。

Once the neutron was found, right, so think about neutrons as bullets.

它们能直接穿进原子内部，因为不带正电，不会被原子核排斥。

They can go right into the middle of an atom because they're they're not positively charged, so they're not gonna be repelled by the nucleus.

它们能把那些 barely 挣扎着维持在一起的原子打碎，于是子弹催生更多子弹，再催生更多子弹——这就是链式反应。

And they can bust apart atoms that are base barely being held together, and that's why you you get bullets begetting bullets, begetting bullets, and that's what a chain reaction is.

上世纪三四十年代，那些做这行的人发现，只要不是洛斯阿拉莫斯秘密团队的成员，投稿给期刊就会被扣下，要求反复修改，而且根本拿不到经费。

The people who were doing that in the '40 in the thirties suddenly found that when they mailed off a paper to a journal, if they weren't part of the secret group in Los Alamos, their paper got held up and sent back for revisions, and there was no money in it.

我们暗地里搞了个机制，把真正的研究项目转到国家资源委员会下面。

We we secretly set up this thing to shunt real research into the National Resource Council.

我记得这事儿是叫布莱特的人组织的，B-R-E-I-T。

I think this was organized by a guy named Bright, b r e I t.

这标志着整个同行评审管控体系的开端。

And that was the beginning of this whole peer review control mechanism.

这种控制机制，你觉得是出于自尊吗？那些把门的人想保住自己的位置。

And this control, do you think is this ego based that the people who are the gatekeepers wanna remain in the position of

我们都想活下去，乔。

We all wanna survive, Joe.

这确实是个大问题。

I mean, is a real problem.

你和我可以躲在JRE里随便批评这些机构，但当普通人轻而易举就能造成大规模屠杀时，你又该怎么办？

So you and I can hate on the institutions all we want from the safety of the JRE, but what are you gonna do when it becomes really, really easy for people to commit, like, mass murder?

想想那些特别恶劣的事件，比如拉斯维加斯枪击案，最后也没彻底查清——用子弹大规模杀人其实非常困难。

If you think about all the really bad math, like the the Vegas shooting that never really got sorted out, it's very hard to kill large numbers of people using things like bullets.

如果你真想杀死大量的人，你只会选择生物武器或者核武器。

If you want to really kill a large number of people, you're gonna go to biologicals and you're gonna go to nuclear.

一旦这些武器变得很容易制造，会发生什么？

And what happens when that becomes easy?

也许现在制造这类武器的难度，远比我们想象的要低得多。

Like, maybe it's a lot easier to build these weapons than the way we currently do it.

现在，我们被像离心机这样的技术瓶颈卡住了。

Right now, we're bottlenecked on things like centrifuges.

顺便说一句，谁知道物理学下一个突破会带来什么？

And by the way, who knows what the next innovation in physics is gonna bring?

所以我总说，如果你不关注像我这样层级的人，那你的情报工作到底在做什么？

So I always say this thing about if you're not tracking everybody at my level, what are you doing as an intelligence

这跟你说的那些失踪的科学家有关吗？

Is this part of your concern about the missing scientists?

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

当然了。

Of course.

明白。

Yeah.

关于那些失踪科学家的说法，如果有人还不了解的话，我觉得现在人数可能已经到十五个了，很多人说这些关联其实没什么根据，有些人的失踪根本是误传。

So the missing scientist narrative, for people that aren't aware of it, I think they're up to 15 now, and a lot of people say that some of these connections are baseless and that some of them did it's

其实根本没到十五个。

just We're not really up to 15.

没错。

No.

明白了。

Okay.

那你觉得实际数字应该是多少？

So what do you think we're actually up to?

我不确定。

I don't know.

大概五六个吧。

Probably five or six.

但我看到网上有人做过详细分析，他们说这种情况纯属巧合的概率简直高得离谱。

But I saw someone online did a breakdown of it, and essentially, they were saying that the odds of this being a coincidence are off the charts.

那些人都在从事非常特定的尖端科技研究，各自涉及不同机密领域，结果全都不见了。

That the people that are all involved in very specific types of technological technological research, different things that are top secret that all of these people either wind up missing.

这种情况其实挺多的。

There's a lot

数学和物理领域其实有很多谋杀案，人们根本没意识到。

of murder in math and physics, first of all.

大家都不太了解这一点。

People don't really appreciate that.

你知道吗，那个邮包炸弹客就是个著名的数学博士。

You know, the Unabomber was a famous PhD mathematician.

他确实是个大人物，案子也很轰动。

He's a big story, though.

这种事确实不少。

There's a there's a lot

对。

of Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

有个叫康托尔的人，当年在我读本科的宾夕法尼亚大学，闯进戴维·里滕豪斯实验室，朝一场研讨会开枪。

There was a guy named Cantor who broke into David Rittenhouse Laboratories in the University of Pennsylvania where I was an undergraduate and shot up a seminar.

在爱荷华州，我有个亲戚进了物理系，因为有个研究生杀了人，空出了个位置。

There was, you know, this situation in Iowa where a relative of mine got a seat in the physics department, because somebody was killed by one of the graduate students.

我觉得这事后来还拍成了电影，叫《暗物质》。

I think it became a movie like Dark Matter.

所以，数学和物理圈子里的凶杀案多得惊人。

So there there's an incredible amount of murder.

还有斯坦福大学那个用圆头锤打死卡尔·德勒乌的斯特雷列茨基事件。

The ball peen hammer killing of, was it Carl DeLeuw by Streletsky at Stanford.

首先，数学家和物理学家往往有点精神不稳定，所以死亡事件特别多。

So first of all, there's just a lot of death because mathematicians and physicists are somewhat close to unhinged.

而且这圈子文化特别阴暗，有时候就会演变成暴力。

And it's it's a really nasty there's a lot of nasty culture, and sometimes it becomes violent.

你为什么觉得他们有点不正常？

Why do you think they're close to unhinged?

你整天就泡在自己的脑子里。

You spend that much time in your head.

我真没想到自己还能这么脚踏实地。

I I'm amazed that I'm as well grounded as I am.

不是。

No.

说真的，你简直飘在云里。

Seriously, you're just way out in the stratosphere.

我完全忘了自己是谁、身在何处，甚至忘了自己是个活人。

I I I completely forget who I am, where I am, that I'm even a human being.

当你把身体当成工具来用，就像你在格斗运动和训练中那样，你就会变成另一种存在。

That when you're using your body as an instrument, as you as you do in combat sports and training, you become a different thing.

你懂的。

You know?

你知道那种射箭的方式吗，得把胳膊扭一下

You know that archery thing where you have

对

to Mhmm.

把胳膊扭过来

Twist your arm.

很多人一开始根本不知道还能这么干

A lot of people don't know that they can do that initially.

就是这种小细节，或者你懂的，

Like, it's just a small thing like that or you know how

你说的是哪种？

are you talking about?

就是那个扭胳膊的射箭方式？

Archery thing that you twist your arm?

如果你用的是老式弓，经常会被弓弦烫到

If you have an old style bow, you you often get burned by the

哦，原来得像那样扭动手臂。

Oh, that you have to twist your arm like that.

对。

Yeah.

就是这样。

Just like Yeah.

所以你不会那样伸手，被弓弦打到。

So you're not like this and get hit.

但你其实没注意到。

But but you you you don't See see

你明白我的意思。

what you're saying.

你看，当你扭动手腕的时候。

See, but then you twisted your your wrist.

你要保持

You keep your

手腕

wrist

保持伸直。

straight.

我从不这么射箭。

Just I don't do that kind of archery.

所以我才觉得困惑。

That's why I'm confused.

好吧，行吧。

Well, okay.

不好意思。

Sorry.

你那是真功夫。

You do real.

这种姿势。

This this kind.

是的。

Yeah.

你的手要保持这样。

You keep your hand like that.

好吧。

Okay.

这是扭矩的问题。

That's a torque issue.

比如你是个狙击手，你知道的，呼吸、眼神调整，这些都有很多讲究。

But like if you're if you're if you're a sniper, you know, there are all sorts of things about breathing in in your eye how you adjust your eyes and Right.

你得把身体当成一种工具，像数学家或物理学家那样使用。

You use your body as an instrument as a mathematician or physicist.

我之所以希望自己的体能更好一点，是因为要想让思维保持在某种状态，就不能总想着压制饥饿感。

One of the reasons that I I wish I were in better shape is in order for me to keep my mind in a particular way, I have to not think constantly about suppressing food, you know.

所以你正在做一件非常不自然的事。

So what you're doing a you're doing a very unnatural thing.

是的

Mhmm.

这种不自然的状态，并不是每个人都能适应的。

And that unnatural thing, not everybody can handle it.

对

Right.

我明白你的意思。

I see what

你说得对。

you're saying.

我们就会突然崩溃。

And we snap.

而且，人的思维其实更完美。

And also, minds are more perfect.

世界的混乱和思维的完美，彼此之间是冲突的。

The messiness of the world and the perfection of our minds is at odds with each other.

我特别喜欢沉浸到数学和物理里，因为那里一切都井然有序。

And I love disappearing into math and physics because it's perfect.

但这跟暴力有什么关系呢？

But how does that lead to violence?

你生气，是因为别人在说谎，对吧？

You're upset because people are lying.

你知道的。

You know?

你可能会觉得，那个大学炸弹客其实提出了一些很有见地的观点。

You're you're like, the the Unabomber had had really interesting points.

他可不是个傻子。

He wasn't a dumb guy.

他确实说得对，他写过一个特别精彩的故事，叫《愚人船》。

He was really correctly you know, he has an amazing story called Ship of Fools.

我强烈推荐大家去读一读。

I highly recommend anybody read it.

就像查尔斯·曼森的《Look at Your Game, Girl》这首歌其实特别棒。

Just the way Charles Manson's Look at Your Game Girl is a great song.

对。

Yeah.

这确实是一首好歌。

It's a great song.

明白了。

Okay.

是的。

Yeah.

我们不太能接受那种半吊子的做法，还有那种为特殊情况找借口的做派——这些恰恰是日常生活的常态。

We're not comfortable in part with coming back to the the half measures and the the special pleading that sort of characterizes normal life.

所以回到那个失踪科学家的说法，我觉得这组数据里根本不存在十五个失踪的科学家。

So to get back to the missing scientist narrative, I don't think there are 15 missing scientists in this data set.

这完全是胡说八道。

That's bullshit.

看起来他们正在尽可能多地添加内容。

This is It seems like they're adding as many as they can.

对。

Yeah.

他们试图建立一些根本不存在的联系。

They're They're trying to make connections that don't

这简直就像UFO叙事被彻底劣质化了。

seem to It's it's like it's like the junkification of the UFO narrative.

这些说法都带着一堆垃圾，而很多垃圾就是故意贴上去的，好让那些被要求无视这件事的人有理由说：‘这太烂了，不值得理。’

All of these narratives have a junk to them so that and and and I believe a lot of the junk is affixed to the narrative so that those who wanna follow the institutional instruction to ignore the fact that this is happening can point to the crappiness.

对吧？

Right?

所以这就是他们的退路。

And so that's the out.

而你真正难能可贵的地方在于，你努力去分辨：哪些是胡说八道？

And the really difficult thing that you do and you do really well is you try to piece together, okay, what's bullshit?

什么是真实的？

What's real?

UFO的故事里有很多真实的东西，也有很多胡说八道。

There's a lot of real in the UFO story, and there's a lot of nonsense.

没错。

Right.

新冠的故事里同样有很多真实的内容，也有很多胡扯。

There's a lot of real in the COVID story and a lot of nonsense.

物理学也是如此。

The same thing is true for physics.

但物理学更危险，我一直想不通，他们怎么允许我上JRE说这些话。

But physics is more dangerous, and the fact that we're not tracking like, always wonder why they allow me to come on the JRE and say stuff.

我知道不少东西，但自己也不清楚它们会带来什么后果。

I know a lot of stuff that I don't know what it unlocks.

不过，随便什么人上这儿来，都很容易被当成胡说八道。

Well, it's easy to dismiss anybody who comes on here.

当然，但中国比那些大语言模型更聪明。

Sure, but China is smarter than and by the way, the LLMs.

我的意思是，这里头牵扯的东西太多了。

I mean, look, there are lot of threads here.

回到物理学，我明天要去德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校做个演讲，主题是支持科学、数学和物理，重申我们对这些领域的承诺。

To get back to the physics, and I'm giving a talk tomorrow on at the at the U Texas Austin on supporting science, math, and physics, and renewing our commitment to it.

我不想让人觉得这些领域没危险，或者把关是愚蠢的。

I don't want to give the impression that it isn't dangerous or that the gatekeeping is stupid.

在数学和物理领域，严格把关非常重要。

It's really important to do great gatekeeping around mathematics and physics.

这关系到密码学、武器、推进技术，甚至可能瞬间改变全球经济格局。

It's cryptography, it's weaponry, it's propulsion, it's, you know, a sudden change in the world economy.

如果你真搞定了核聚变，马上就会引发地缘政治的巨变。

If you figured out how to do fusion, it would have immediate geopolitical results.

所以，你提到的那些失踪的科学家——不管说是五六个吧——他们具体在搞什么这么危险的东西？

So these specific scientists that are missing, whatever the number is, five, six that you think are legitimate, what what specifically are they working on that's so dangerous?

嗯，搞核聚变的那位，显然是在麻省理工，还有其他人，我我不太清楚。

Well, the fusion guy, obviously, is at MIT is anybody who might I I don't know.

核聚变不是我的专长。

Fusion isn't my thing.

等离子体也不是我的专长。

Plasma isn't my thing.

但毫无疑问，这很危险，你想想看，现在有多少东西都依赖石油。

But that is unquestionably dangerous if you imagine how much depends on oil.

而且，假设如果有一个极其聪明的人领导着这个项目，他取得了突破，那么如果除掉这个人，整个团队就会陷入混乱，因为在他手下工作的人，无论有多少人，都没有他那么深入参与其中，这样是不是就能在一定程度上让问题变得棘手？

And is there is it a good assumption that if you have one incredibly brilliant person that's at the head of this thing and they make a breakthrough, if you kill that guy, the whole thing is in disarray because the people that are under him, whatever people he has working with him aren't as fully immersed in it as he is, that you can kind of, like, handicap a problem.

打个比方，如果说有

It's like, let's say if there's

前五名

The top five

的人。

people.

这本质上是个能源问题。

It's an energy

没错。

thing.

是的。

Yeah.

假设这真是个能源问题。

Let's say if it's an energy thing.

假设有人发明了一项新技术，能彻底颠覆化石燃料行业。

Let's say if someone has some new technology that's gonna completely disrupt the fossil fuels industry.

对。

Right.

听好了。

And they go, listen.

只要干掉这个人，这项技术虽然迟早会出现，但我们能拖上十年，赚上一万五千亿美元。

We can kill this fucking guy, and it's still coming down the pipe, but we'll delay it by ten years and make $15,000,000,000,000.

所以

So

这个问题是关于人类智力和能力的极端右尾，也就是最顶尖的那一小部分。

this is a question about the far right tail, like the extreme right tail of human intelligence and ability.

比如滑板界有个传奇人物罗德尼·穆伦，你觉得现在所有滑板动作里，有多少比例是他发明的？

And if you think about certain areas where you have a dominant figure, Rodney Mullen in skateboarding for example, what percentage of all tricks derive from Rodney Mullen?

你不可能完全阻止滑板运动发展，但只要你拿下了罗德尼·穆伦，就能大大拖慢它的进程。

You couldn't have stopped skateboarding, but you could certainly have held it back by getting to Rodney Mullen.

对吧？

Right?

说到吉他，吉米·亨德里克斯和埃迪·范·海伦的影响，简直不成比例地巨大。

When it comes to, you know, guitar, the the amount of impact that, Jimi Hendrix and Eddie Van Halen had is just wildly disproportionate.

你知道吗？

You know what?

我做播客的时候，特别想把罗德尼·穆伦和埃迪·范·海伦请来一起聊。

When when I was doing my podcast, I was really excited to do Rodney Mullen and Eddie Van Halen together.

我想找两个完全不同的运动，但这两个人其实挺像的。

I wanted to get them, you know, totally different sports, but those two guys are sort of the same.

他们创造的那些技巧，多到你根本想象不到。

They just created so much vocabulary you can't even imagine it.

埃迪·范·海伦也得不到他应得的认可。

And Eddie Van Halen doesn't get the credit he deserves either.

快跟我说说。

Oh, tell me.

给我讲讲。

Talk to me.

因为范·海伦后来变成了范·哈格尔，音乐风格也变了。

Well, it's just Van Halen became Van Hagar, and it became a different kind of music.

很多原始铁杆乐迷都走了，但确实吸引了不少新听众。

And I think a lot of the original hardcore fans left, but a lot I think it got more popular with Sure.

萨米·哈格尔是不错，但那已经是另一种风格了。

Sammy Hagar, but it was a different kind of music.

倒也不是说不好，就是不一样了。

And not that it's bad, but it's different.

然后我觉得很多人都直接摇头了。

And then I think a lot of people just went, nah.

但你要说，比如去听大卫·李·罗斯时期的范海伦，那时候的范海伦简直就是完美的乐队。

But, like, if you go, like, to, you know, some of the, like, big Van Halen with David I think Van Halen with David Lee Roth in his prime was a literally a perfect band.

那真是绝了。

It was phenomenal.

我上高中的时候，他们就是神一般的存在。

That was they were the shit when I was in high school.

那时候人人都把范海伦的图案画在笔记本上。

I mean, it was everybody had Van Halen on their notebooks.

他们搞出了V8。

They made the v eight.

我记得很清楚。

I remember it.

他们太棒了。

They were awesome.

他们水平超高，尤其是范·海伦和埃迪，在那些经典 riff 里简直炸裂。

And they were so good, and Van Halen and Eddie specifically could shred so hard in some of those classic riffs.

我觉得在主流圈子里，他得到的认可远远不够。

I just don't think in the mainstream world, he got the credit that he deserves.

我。

I

我看法不一样。

see it differently.

人们总提起克莱普顿，当然，他也是位大师。

Well, people mentioned Clapton, who, of course, is a great wizard.

最常被提到的第一名永远是亨德里克斯。

Always, it's number one is Hendrix.

大多数人把亨德里克斯排第一，因为他实在太颠覆了。

Most people have Hendrix as number one because he was so revolutionary.

没人会提到艾伦·霍尔沃斯。

Well, nobody's gonna say Alan Holdsworth.

我不认识这个人。

I don't know who he is.

没错。

Exactly.

对啊。

Yeah.

我的意思是，大卫·李·罗斯让埃迪·范·海伦没能成为艾伦·霍尔沃斯，而且——

I mean, my my my point is is that David Lee Roth kept Eddie Van Halen from becoming Alan Holdsworth, and

谁是艾伦·霍尔沃斯？

that's Who's Alan Holdsworth?

这挺有意思的。

Oh, it's interesting.

如果你去问那些自认很牛的吉他手，一提到艾伦·霍尔沃斯，大家都会停一下，说：哦，是他啊。

Alan Holdsworth like, if you talk to your hot shit guitarist friends, they will very often like, everybody will just pause and say, yeah, that's Alan Holdsworth.

真的吗？

Really?

对。

Yeah.

对普通人来说，听上去就像调制解调器的声音。

And it's sort of like listening to a modem for normal human beings.

对吧？

Right?

所以他的音乐就是不受欢迎。

That's why it's just it's just not popular.

所以埃迪·范·海伦

And so Eddie Van Halen

是谁

was Who

他和谁一起演奏过？

did he play with?

我不清楚。

I don't know.

艾伦·霍尔兹沃思。

Alan Holdsworth.

就他自己一个人？

Just by himself?

是的。

Yeah.

好吧。

Okay.

我们居然莫名其妙地选了艾伦·霍尔兹沃思？

We just actually weirdly put Alan Holdsworth?

就随便挑了个相关的。

Just like choose something with it.

对。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我们来听一段他的音乐。

We'll listen to some his music.

我们可能会把这段剪掉，不然会被批评。

So We might have we'll edit it out of the episode because otherwise we get dinged on

好。

Okay.

那我们干脆这样吧。

Why don't we okay.

但我们会放出来。

But We'll play it.

我们会放这段，然后马上回来。

We'll play it, and then we'll just come right back

继续。

to it.

好的。

Alright.

就这么办。

Let's do that.

给点建议吧，Jamie。

Give me something, Jamie.

有没有哪首歌是你特别想听的？

Was it is there any specific song that you'd like?

没有。

No.

一首都没有。

At all.

每首歌都让人脑壳发麻。

It's all mind melting.

我只是想看看他有没有什么热门歌，我们可以顺便蹭一下热度，但好像一个都没看到。

Just checking to see if he's gotten anything popular we might have known so I could tag tap into that, but I don't see nothing.

比如说，有没有哪首歌是你喜欢的，可以推荐一下？

Like, is there a song that you like that you could recommend?

我听一点就够了，之后就不会再听了。

I just listen to a certain amount of it, and then I don't listen to it again.

我还达不到非得听艾伦·霍尔兹沃思那种水平的程度。

I'm not at that level where I need Alan Holdsworth.

好的。

Okay.

那是什么意思？

What does that mean?

不是。

No.

我是说，那是什么意思？

I'm What does that mean?

谢谢你，Jamie。

Thank you, Jamie.

我宁愿看个家伙裤子着火在天上飞，也不愿听这个。

I'd rather see some guy flying through the air with, like, his pants on fire than listen to

艾伦·霍尔特。

Alan Holter.

好吧。

Okay.

来了。

Here we go.

东京现场。

Live in Tokyo.

1984年。

1984.

东京现场。

Live in Tokyo.

东京之梦。

Tokyo dream.

你能不能用直方图看看，那些书呆子都往哪儿跑。

See if you can use the histogram to figure out, like, where the nerds are going.

直方图？

Histogram?

是的。

Yeah.

它能显示观众在视频里的哪个时间段停留得最久。

It shows you, like, where people spend their time on a video.

哦，很多呢。

Oh, a lot.

我肯定会直接冲到中间去。

I would go right into the middle of it or something.

我早就盯着你在干嘛了。

I'm already checking what you're doing.

反正也不会有什么卖爆的

Nothing's gonna sell out or

没什么事，就放中间吧，Jamie。

Nothing's going on right Put it in the middle, Jamie.

什么？好吧。

What is Okay.

不过你以前听过这个吗？

Is all you've heard this before though?

是的。

Yeah.

那是贝斯吗？

What is that a bass?

我听到的另一个吉他声是什么？

What is the other guitar I'm hearing?

因为那和贝斯手弹的完全对不上。

Because that is not matching up with what that bass player seems to be playing.

你有没有听到那把吉他，节奏比其他部分慢一拍？

Do you hear that extra guitar that's slower than off time?

我不确定。

I don't know.

我觉得那是贝斯。

That's a bass, I think.

听起来不像

It doesn't sound like

它在演奏。

it's playing.

我那些玩吉他朋友听了肯定流口水，我就看着他们。

My guitarist friends would just salivate, and I'll look at them.

但他们也帮不上忙。

They won't help.

Stoach，爵士乐。

Stoach, a jazz.

我的意思是，别介意，

I mean, no offense,

但听起来不可能太

but it's Can't be very

这听起来像爵士乐。

It sounds like jazz.

对吧？

Right?

就是爵士吉他那种风格。

So it's like jazz guitar.

就是，没有人声。

Like, there's no there's no singing.

抱歉，先生。

Apologize, sir.

你听好了。

Well, look.

如果我放上，呃，不是Jerry了。

If I put on if I no more g r Jerry.

我受够了。

I've had it.

哦，杰米。

Oh, Jamie.

杰米，你在这儿可要面对一堆人嫌弃你了。

Jamie, you're gonna have so much nerd hate here.

没关系。

That's fine.

我每天都这么猜。

Had guess that every day.

人们都会

People will

好吧。

Okay.

我相信，他们也会同意我的看法。

Agree with me too, I believe.