186. 比特币：货币的未来？| 比特币爱好者读书会

而银行——它们往往会演变成中央银行或国有银行——总是辜负了人们赋予的这种信任职能。

And banks, which tend to become central banks or nationalized banking operations over time, have have always violated that trust function placed within them.

你能给我们举些最近的例子吗？

Can you give us some recent examples of that?

当然可以。

Well, sure.

1971年，臭名昭著的尼克松冲击，他让世界脱离了金本位制。

In 1971, the infamous Nixon shock, he took the world off of gold standard.

要知道，二战后我们召开了布雷顿森林会议，美国单方面决定将美元与黄金挂钩。

You know, subsequent to World War two, we held the Bretton Woods Conference where it was determined unilaterally by The United States that the dollar would be pegged to gold.

世界上其他所有货币都将与美元挂钩。

Every other currency in the world would be pegged to the dollar.

这赋予美国臭名昭著的'过度特权'，基本上他们可以随心所欲地印钞，向世界输送这些名为美元的纸券，然后换取商品和服务。

So this gave The United States the infamous exorbitant privilege to just basically be able to print whatever amount of money they want, send the world, these paper certificates called dollars, and then receive goods and services in exchange.

但其他国家之所以同意，一是因为美国当时是军事霸主，二是因为美元可以兑换黄金。

But other countries agreed to this one because The US was the dominant military power of the time and two because dollars were redeemable for gold.

但从1944年到1971年间，情况恶化到足够多的国家对美元失去信心，纷纷要求将货币兑换成黄金，以至于尼克松决定单方面关闭黄金兑换窗口。

But from between 1944 and 1971, it reached a point where enough countries that had lost faith in the dollar that they were asking to redeem their currencies for gold that Nixon decided to spontaneously close the gold window.

于是他让全球脱离了金本位，转向完全的法币体系。

So he just moved the world off of a gold standard onto a purely fiat currency standard.

自那时起——确切说是从1971年至今，这场持续五十年的实验导致了灾难性的社会经济后果，各项数据都证明了这点。

And then there's since that point, and actually since 1971 through today, it's been about a fifty year experiment, we have had disastrous socioeconomic consequences across a whole gamut of data.

有个很棒的网站专门讨论这个现象，推荐听众去看看，叫'1971年到底发生了什么.com'。

There's a great website to this effect I would just encourage listeners to check out called WTF happened in 1971.com.

如你所知，我们经历了肥胖率飙升、自杀、成瘾等问题。

And it you know, we've had obesity, suicide, addiction.

显然，全球债务与GDP比率已经爆炸式增长。

Clearly, global debt to GDP has exploded.

这些都指向了任意通胀带来的毁灭性力量。

It just points towards the the devastating force that is arbitrary inflation.

所以没错，希望这个回答能解释清楚。

So yeah, I hope that answers it.

好的，请继续。

I Yes, go ahead.

我能插一句吗？

Can I just jump in for a sec?

在我们继续之前，我们讨论了很多关于价值的内容。

Before we move on, we're talking a lot about value.

我想提到，乔丹，你之前说的某一点我想稍微展开一下——你在工作中也谈到过这个。

And I think, Jordan, you mentioned something earlier that I just want to pull the string on a tiny little bit is and you talk about this in your work.

但为了让价值显现，我们需要定义限制。

But in order for value to emerge, we need to define limitations.

因此事物是由其局限性定义的。

So things are defined by their limitations.

正因如此，我们才能将它们区分开来。

And as a result of that, we're able to separate them.

对吧？

Right?

所以事物从虚无中显现。

So things emerge out of the void.

它们的局限性使我们能够区分它们。

Their limitations allow us to separate them.

那么问题来了，我们该如何排序它们？

Then the problem is, how do we order them?

对吗？

Right?

这就是这些价值层级如何形成的。

And then so that is how these value hierarchies emerge.

而我们用来排序事物的内在衡量标准，正是我们自身时间和精力的有限性。

And the the internal measuring stick we use to order things is our own limitations of time and energy.

举个非常基础的例子，如果我要看那盏灯，就意味着我排除了其他所有可能看的东西。

So for a very basic example, if I'm gonna look at the lamp, then I'm excluding everything else that I could look at.

我将时间和精力资源都投入到看那盏灯上，从而排除了其他一切。

I'm devoting my time and energy resources to look at that lamp at the exclusion of everything else.

无论你把有限的资源投向何处，机会成本都是无限的。

The opportunity cost is infinite to anywhere you place your limited resources.

因此货币的演进历程，就是试图找到某种能模拟我们局限性的东西，模拟我们在赋予某物价值时所做出的牺牲。

And so the journey or the evolution of money of finding a money has been to try to find something that mimics our limitations that mimics the sacrifices that we make when we devote when we bestow value on something.

那你为什么要说'模拟'呢？

So why would you say mimics?

因为我们需要某种能反映相同局限性的东西。

Well, because we want something to reflect the same limitation.

要知道，当我们通过牺牲来赋予某物价值时，这本质上就是价值的定义。

You know, when we're bestowing value on something through our sacrifices, that's basically what value is.

我牺牲自己的时间、精力和注意力来专注于某一特定事物。

I'm sacrificing my time and energy and perception to focus on one particular thing.

如果我想将这种价值表达给外部世界，最理想的方式就是找到某种与我自身同样有限的东西

If I want to express that out into the external world, the ideal way of doing that is to find something that is similarly limited as my own

这个观点很有意思。

So that's interesting.

从某种意义上说，金钱显然是人类价值的反映，但我之前并未将其视为一种模仿形式。

So yeah, so money, I mean, it's obvious in one sense that money is a reflection of human value, but I hadn't exactly thought about it as a form of mimicry.

我们需要的是一种能在人与人之间流动的任意外部媒介，它自然要能代表人们所重视的东西。

So what we want is an arbitrary external agent that's mobile across people that signifies what people value, of course.

它象征着你个人的价值体系。

That signifies your value structure.

为什么要做出牺牲？

Why sacrifice?

这就是我们创造世界财富的方式。

Well, that's how we create wealth in the world.

我们牺牲时间和精力去创造事物。

We sacrifice our time and energy to create things.

金钱只是另一种...抱歉打断，金钱是衡量牺牲的尺度。

So money that's just another I didn't mean to interrupt, money as a measure of sacrifice.

好的。

Okay.

Gigi，现在让我们听听你的看法，填补一些关于比特币本身的空白。

Gigi, let's go to you now, and let's fill in some of the gaps about Bitcoin per se.

你能否向我们解释它是什么，以及为何你认为它很重要？

Do you wanna fill us in about what it is and and why you think it's significant?

它的革命性体现在哪里？

What's revolutionary about it?

我会尽力解释，并尝试将其与刚才讨论的内容联系起来。

I'll try my best, and I'll try to link it to what was just discussed.

我们总是试图锁定某种不会轻易消逝、能够作为货币使用的东西。

Like, we we always try to zero in on something that, yeah, doesn't just melt away and that that we can use as money.

正如我们刚才讨论的，历史上黄金和白银就是贵金属。

And historically, as we just discussed, gold and silver are precious metals.

我们在这方面做得很好，因为黄金几乎坚不可摧，而且非常稀缺、不可见等等。

We're very good at that because gold is virtually indestructible, and it's also very scarce and invisible and so on and so forth.

问题是，这也是计算机科学家试图解决的难题，我想有五十多年了吧，就是如果你想在信息领域实现这一点，创造代表价值的东西，基本上是不可能的，因为信息可以无限复制。

The problem is, and that's what computer scientists try to solve, like, for, I guess, fifty years plus, is if you want to do that in the informational realm, have something that represents value, it's basically impossible because you can copy information indefinitely.

这就是所谓的双花问题。

And that's what's described by the double spend problem.

如果你能读取信息，就能复制它。

Like, if you can read information, can also copy it.

所以在数字领域，你无法拥有一个不能被复制的代币。

So you cannot have a token in the digital realm that can't be copied.

如果你能读取它，就能再次写入，这是基本的复制机制。

If you can read it, you can also write it down again, and that's a basic copying mechanism.

计算机就是这样工作的。

That's how computers work.

计算机本质上就是复制机器。

Computers are just basic copying machines.

因此数字稀缺性在比特币之前是个矛盾修辞，根本不可能实现。

So digital scarcity is kind of an oxymoron and was never possible before Bitcoin.

即使在比特币中，它的运作方式也没有产生任何不能被复制的东西。

And also in Bitcoin, like, the way that Bitcoin works, it doesn't produce anything that can't be copied.

比特币的所有内容时刻都在被复制，你可以复制它的每个方面。

Everything in Bitcoin is copied all the time, and you can copy every aspect of it.

而且实际上没有任何内容是真正加密的，明白吗？

And there's also nothing that is really encrypted, you know?

它虽然采用了类似密码学的加密技术，但实际上并没有真正加密任何内容。

It encryption technology like cryptographic technology, but it doesn't really encrypt anything.

它只是使用数字签名方案来确保物品所有权的明确性。

It only uses digital signature schemes to make sure that the ownership of things is clear.

但比特币里的所有内容你都能读取。

But you can read any everything in Bitcoin.

完全是明文形式。

It's completely plain text.

所以我们才说它就像语言一样。

That's why we also say it's speech.

明白吗？

You know?

你基本上可以把比特币的运作原理打印成书，可以实际阅读它，也可以输入另一台电脑重新启动。

It's you can you can basically print out how Bitcoin works and put it in a book, you can actually read it, and you can feed it into another computer and just spin it up again.

比特币产生的输出——记录谁拥有什么的账本——也完全是明文形式。

And also the output that Bitcoin produces, this ledger which records who owns what, is completely plain text.

某种程度上，你光是看着就能理解它。

Like, you can make sense of it by just looking at it, kind of.

所以我们面临的问题是：历史上我们总是用物理载体来代表这种价值，比如金币。

And so we we have this this problem that, historically, we found physical artifacts to represent this value, gold coins, for example.

金币本身就说明了一切。

And the gold coins, they speak for themselves.

也就是说，持有金币的人就拥有这种价值，即存储的价值。

Like, whoever has the gold coin is in possession possession of this value, the stored value.

首先需要别人付出劳动来开采黄金。

Someone else put work into it to extract the gold first and foremost.

经过多次交易后，无论是通过劳动获得还是偷来的金币，其实都无所谓。

And after exchanges, you know that whoever earned this gold coin or also stole it, like, it doesn't matter.

持有这种不记名工具的人，持有这枚金币的人就拥有某种价值，可以到社会上兑现。

Whoever has this bearer instrument, whoever has this gold coin is in possession of some value and can redeem it, go to society and redeem it.

你可以用金币兑换任何想要的商品和服务。

You can like, whatever goods and services you want to have, you can exchange your gold coin for that.

而在数字领域，在比特币出现之前，由于双重支付问题，没有可信第三方的情况下这是不可能实现的，因为信息本质上是可复制的。

And in in the digital realm, doing that without any trusted third party before Bitcoin was impossible because of this double spend problem, because of the nature of information that you can't have any token that can't be copied.

比特币实际上是通过全球计算机的精密协作，构建了一个验证账本副本的系统，使无效副本变得无用。

So what Bitcoin actually does is it it it is this play kind of it is this intricate dance of computers all around the world that spin up a system that checks and verifies copies of this ledger, and it makes invalid copies useless.

所以你可以复制它，也可以对副本进行转换。

So you can copy it and you can kind of transform the copies as well.

但所有自愿参与这个游戏的参与者都同意遵守特定规则，这些规则规定我们只接受符合约定规则的有效副本。

But everyone who participates voluntarily in this game agrees to certain rules, and the rules say that we only accept valid copies according to the rules that we signed up to.

正是这一点使整个系统成为可能，最终产生的就是

And this is what makes all this possible, and what what comes what comes out of it is simply

这是一份牢不可破的信任契约。

It's a an unbreakable contract of trust.

是的。

Yeah.

‘牢不可破’是个很重的词，比特币里的一切都基于概率运作，包括密码学本身。

It's like, unbreakable is a really big word, and everything in Bitcoin works kind of probabilistically, including, like, cryptography itself.

本质上它利用了宇宙中某些问题的不对称性——除非知道确切解法，否则这些问题极难解决。

It's it's it's basically it makes use of an asymmetry that some problems in our universe are very hard to solve unless you know the exact solution to it.

所以这基本上就是所有密码学的根基。

So that's basically all like, the root of all cryptography.

比如，如果我知道密钥，就能瞬间轻松解密信息。

Like, if I know the secret, I can decipher the message instantly, very easily.

但如果你不知道密钥，就得穷举所有可能性，这就是权力不对称的来源。

But if you don't know the secret, you will have to guess every possible secret, and this is where this asymmetry of power comes from.

因此密码学本质是防御性的，比特币也利用了这一点。

So cryptography is inherently defensive, and this is what, Bitcoin makes use of as well.

比如，没有我的私钥，你绝对动不了我的比特币。

Like, if you don't have my private key, you cannot spend my Bitcoin, period.

在你成功之前宇宙都会先热寂，这就是比特币的力量。

Like, the heat death of the universe will come first before you you will be able to do that, and this is the power of Bitcoin.

那你能用最简单的话描述比特币是什么吗？

So can you get extremely simple and describe what Bitcoin is?

可以。

Yeah.

这可是价值2100万比特币的问题。

That's the 21,000,000 Bitcoin question.

问题。

Question.

恐怕没有简单的答案。

I'm afraid there is no simple answer.

就像，我能给出的最好解释是，你可以把它想象成一个共享的Excel表格，一个共享的账本，简单地记录了谁欠谁什么。

Like, the the best I can give you is it's basically you can think of it as a as a shared Excel sheet, like, a shared a shared ledger that simply attests to who owes what to whom.

比如，它有一个列表，记录了我们拥有的2100万比特币，约翰拥有一些，罗伯特拥有一些，这是一个转账记录列表。

Like, it it has a list of these are the 21,000,000 bitcoins that we have, and John owns some and Robert owns some, and it's a list of transfers.

所以这是一系列交易记录。

So it's a list of transactions.

如果你把这些都加起来，理清所有交易，记录的内容就是从比特币诞生到现在，比特币生态系统中发生的一切。

And if you if you add all this up and it makes sense of all the transactions, it's the the what is recorded is from the genesis of Bitcoin up to the present moment, everything that happened in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

这就是让它能够交易的原因。

And so that's that's what makes it trade.

正是如此。

Exactly.

所有权。

Ownership.

这就是让它如此值得信赖的原因。

That's what that's what makes it so trustworthy.

它就像一个计算机化的会计系统。

It's like a it's a computerized accountant.

它记录着谁拥有什么、谁欠谁什么，而且数据分布在各处，所以没人能篡改它。

It's keeping track of who owes who owns what and who owes who what, and it's distributed everywhere so no one can corrupt it.

你无法访问任何人的存储，因为他们的密钥是以一种

And you can't get access to anyone's store because their key is encrypted in a

无法破解的方式加密的。

way that makes it impossible to break.

这是因为在最佳情况下，每个人都持有自己的密钥。

It's it's because everyone holds their own keys in the best case.

就像，我持有自己的密钥，你甚至不知道如何将我的比特币地址与我本人关联。

Like, I I hold my own keys and you don't you don't even know like, you can't associate my Bitcoin addresses with myself.

这也是为什么我是个隐形人。

That's also why I'm an invisible man.

许多比特币用户非常注重隐私，这在比特币世界也是个重要话题。

A lot of Bitcoiners take care about their privacy, and that's a big, like, a big topic in the Bitcoin world as well.

因此根本不存在攻击途径。

And so there is simply no attack vector.

你不可能入侵全球所有比特币用户的住所并窃取他们的私钥。

You cannot, like, you cannot invade all the homes of all the Bitcoiners across the world and steal the private keys.

这就是你需要做的来破坏整个系统。

So that's what you would have to do to break the whole system.

所以安全性是分布式的，安全位于边缘，而系统本身具有极强的韧性。

So the security is distributed in the sense that the security is at the edges and the system itself is insanely resilient.

正如你所说，实现这种信任的正是其透明性和彻底分布式特性。

And what enables this trust is exactly as you have said, it's it's transparent and it's radically distributed.

每个人都有一份副本。

Everyone has a copy.

这样我就可以自己验证了。

So I can check it for myself.

从最开始的区块，也就是比特币的创世区块，一直到当下，我都可以亲自验证所有交易。

From from from the very first block, like the genesis of Bitcoin up to the present moment, I can verify everything myself.

没错。

Right.

所以它是完全透明的。

So it's completely transparent.

它是完全分布式运行的。

It's completely distributed.

不存在中心化的权威机构。

There's no centralized authority.

它无法被破解。

It can't be cracked.

它无法被盗取。

It can't be stolen.

它不会通胀。

It doesn't inflate.

它不能被通胀。

It can't be inflated.

至少到目前为止，它不受任何形式的公开行政管控。

It isn't subject to, at least so far, to any form of overt administrative control.

现在我想问在座各位一个问题。

So let me ask all of you guys a question.

也许约翰和理查德可以就此发表意见，因为他们还没怎么发言。

Maybe John and Richard can chime in on this because they haven't spoken too much yet.

所以可能会产生一个问题，特别是与罗伯特的评论相关，那就是我们在1971年就转向了法定货币体系，显然你们对法定货币不感冒，但我们确实有钱而且它确实在运作。

So one of the questions might arise, especially in relationship to Robert's comments, that we switched to a fiat currency back in 1971, and obviously you guys are no fans of fiat currencies, but we do have money and it does work.

它依然能储存价值。

It still stores value.

我们仍然可以使用它。

We can still spend it.

所以我想说，请告诉我为什么我是错的，或者我是否错了，或者你是否同意。

So I would say, please tell me why I'm wrong or if I'm wrong or if you agree.

美元自1971年以来本质上就是主要货币，或许更早之前就是，尽管我们转向了法定汇率体系。

The American dollar has been the currency of record essentially since 1971, perhaps since before that, despite the fact that we've switched to a fiat exchange system.

而我的感觉是，人们使用美元的原因在于世界的判断总体认为，美国的社会结构、社会经济结构比其他任何选择都更可靠。

And my sense is the reason that people use the American dollar is because the judgment of the world is that by and large, the social structure of The United States, social and economic structure of The United States is such that it's more reliable than any alternative.

因此人们在某种意义上信任美国个体，信任他们彼此间的互信关系，信任那些自然形成的社会制度，正因如此，他们愿意像你们信任比特币那样信任美元。

And so people trust individual Americans in some sense, they trust the trusted interrelationship they have with each other, they trust the emergent social institutions, and as a consequence of that, they're willing to put the same kind of faith into the dollar that you guys put into Bitcoin.

这套体系是有效的。

That's working.

具体问题到底是什么？

What's the problem exactly?

我的推理有什么问题吗？

Is there something wrong with my reasoning?

理查德，也许你可以对此发表评论。

Maybe Richard, you could comment on that.

如果没有的话，其他人可以加入进来。

And if not, someone else jump in.

我们可以做一个根本性的区分：一种是由自由市场选择的货币，另一种是通过武力威胁强加于人的货币——本质上美元和其他法定货币都属于后者。

Well, think we can make a fundamental distinction between money that is chosen by the free market and a money that is forced upon someone by the use of the threat of force, which is essentially what the US dollar is and and any other fiat currency.

你的观点很有道理，即美元确实作为货币在流通，但问题在于相对于什么或与什么相比？

Your point is is well taken, which is that the US dollar works as money, but I guess the question is in relation to what or compared to what?

我认为这是因为我们难以想象一个不存在的世界——在那个世界里，自由市场被允许按其规律自然运行。

And I think that because we sort of can't imagine this universe that doesn't exist where, you know, the free market was simply allowed to do what it would do.

所以美元存在两个问题。

So there's two problems with the US dollar.

首先是它基本上是通过法定货币法强制实施的。

One is that, yeah, it's it's basically it's imposed by this legal tender law.

在美国确实如此，而且美国拥有全球范围内的经济和政治主导地位。

So so in The United States, and and yes, The United States has economic and political dominance, and that extends around the world.

但美国公民没有选择交易货币的自由。

But citizens in The United States aren't free to transact in money that they choose.

如果我想用黄金交易，这在法律上是不被允许的。

If I wanted to make a transaction in gold, I'm I'm legally not allowed to to do that.

我不能用黄金来计价合同。

I'm not allowed to denominate a contract in gold.

从技术层面说，我也无法用黄金储蓄，这主要是由于资本利得税的存在。

And I'm also, in a technical sense, prevented from saving my money in gold, and that's really because of capital gains taxes.

比如说，如果我想用黄金保护储蓄不被贬值——因为美元价值确实会随时间缓慢而持续地下降。

If I wanna use gold, for example, to protect my savings from debasement, because slowly but surely the value of the US dollar does decline over time.

如果我随后想动用这笔积蓄进行交易——由于法律义务不得不这样做——就必须缴纳资本利得税，相当于把试图储蓄的价值部分返还给国家。

If I then want to go and use that saved money to actually make a transaction because I'm legally obliged to, I have to pay a capital gains tax and sort of give back to the state the value I've tried to save.

所以我认为这其中确实存在功利主义的考量。

So I think, yeah, there's a utilitarian dimension.

因为在您看来，黄金投资带来的价值增长未必会被视为真正的资本收益。

Because in so you wouldn't regard that, you wouldn't regard necessarily any increase in value that pertained to investment in gold as an actual capital gain.

您可能更倾向于——恕我冒昧揣测——将其视为对抗通胀的避险工具。

You'd be more inclined, I may be putting words in your mouth, I hope not, but you'd be more inclined to think of that as a hedge against inflation.

这不是财富增值，而是通过黄金——理论上比美元更可靠——来实现财富保值。

So not an increase in wealth, an actual maintenance of wealth because gold hypothetically is more reliable than the dollar or you

这个论点可以成立。

could make that case.

完全正确。

Exactly correct.

关键在于，持有黄金严格来说不算投资，因为它不产生收益。

And this is the thing is that, you know, gold, holding gold is, yes, technically it's not an investment because there's no return.

但耐人寻味的是，如今人们将资金投入房地产、股票等所谓投资品，多数人并非为了获取实际回报，而只是为了抵消货币缓慢贬值带来的损失。

But the other interesting thing is that things that we put our money into these days that are investments such as real estate or shares and things like that, most people are only doing that in an effort, yeah, not to earn a real return, but only to sort of offset the loss of value that comes from the slowly depreciating currency.

这就是货币供应持续膨胀造成的问题之一：人们无法进行简单意义上的储蓄。

So, you know, that's part of the problem of of having a currency where the supply constantly inflates is that people aren't able to simply save money in a simple sense.

他们无法持有现金。

They're not able to hold money.

必须将资金投入投资并承担风险，仅仅是为了维持长期购买力。

They have to take that money and invest it and take on the inherent risk in investing simply to maintain their purchasing power over time.

当他们试图将投资转回现金时，购买力实际上再次被剥夺了。

And then that's basically that purchasing power is taken away from them again when they try and go rotate out of that investment back into money.

好的，让我问你一个相关的问题。

Okay, so let me ask you a question about that.

或许我可以这样论证：因为我们都是相互依存的，每当我创造财富，都是我与他人相互依存的结果。

So maybe I could make a case that, you know, because we're all interdependent, whenever I generate wealth, I generate it as a consequence of my interdependence with other people.

单靠我自己是做不到的。

Wouldn't be able to do it on my own.

我依赖于基础设施。

I'm dependent on the infrastructure.

我依赖于政府，至少我享有这些事物提供的优势。

I'm dependent on the government, or at least I have the advantages that those things provide me.

那么我是否可以主张：如果我积累了巨额过剩资本储蓄，社会期望我允许其中一部分因通胀而贬值，作为对我囤积行为的征税，这是合理的——因为我的部分财富本就是集体努力的产物？

And so could I not make a case that if I've managed to accrue a substantial sum of excess capital savings, that it's reasonable for the rest of society to expect me to allow some of that to inflate away as a tax on my hoarding, as a consequence of the fact that part of my wealth is generated as part of a shared endeavor.

比如可以设立财富税，例如对超过5亿美元的资产征收2%的税，让这些囤积的财富随时间衰减，最终回归社会大众。

Because you know, you could posit a wealth tax, right, that might address inequality so that there's a 2% wealth tax or something like that on fortunes over $500,000,000 and so they decay with time to restore that hoarded wealth back to the general community.

你觉得这样的论点

What do you think of an argument like

怎么样？

that?

这很大程度上要回归到我们对政府或国家本质的基本认知。

Well, a lot of this comes back to, you know, we have to go right back to first principles about what we think about the nature of the government or the state.

比如我们认为这个机构是助力还是阻碍？

Like, do we think that that institution helps or hinders?

我们是否认为该机构能够以公平公正的方式重新分配资源，并且高效地实现这一目标？

Do we think that that institution can actually redistribute resources in a way that's fair and equitable, and can do that efficiently?

这几乎是个完全不同的问题。

That's almost an entirely different question.

要知道，我往往对国家在这方面的能力持高度怀疑态度，我认为自由行动的个人反而可能做得更好。

Know, I tend to be very skeptical of what the state can do in that respect, and I think that freely acting individuals would possibly be able to do a better job.

所以你基本上是用自由市场的观点来回应这个质疑，认为自由市场作为计算机制会表现更优。

So you basically have a free market response to that objection, that the free market is gonna do better as a calculating device.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

在交回发言权前我还想简单补充：将通胀作为再分配手段的问题在于，它实际上会不公平地损害社会中的贫困群体，因为那些拥有财富的人——你们讨论的财富税或类似手段——会通过通胀实现再分配。

And the only other thing I'll quickly say before I think handing over is that the problem with using inflation as a redistributive method is that it actually unfairly works against the poor people in society because those that have wealth, you you're talking about a wealth tax or that sort of happens through inflation.

但通常的情况是，富裕阶层不会以现金形式持有财富，而是将其转化为资产。

But the way that it generally plays out is those people who are wealthy, they don't store their money as dollars, they store it in assets.

而这些资产会因通胀而升值。

And those assets appreciate in value as a result of the inflation.

反观那些依靠固定工资生活的人，他们周复一周地靠着银行账户里的余额度日。

Whereas those people who are living on fixed wages, salaries, you know, living week to week with a bank balance there.

由于他们将收入的大部分用于购买商品和服务，这些人实际上最不公平地承受了通胀的冲击。

And because they're spending a larger proportion of their money on goods and services, they're the ones who are actually most unfairly targeted by inflation.

因此通胀实际上会加剧不平等。

So it actually has the effect of increasing inequality.

你们为什么相信通胀程度是可被准确测量的？

And why do you guys have any faith in the idea that there is actually measurable inflation?

因为这合理吗？

Because is it reasonable?

我不理解通货膨胀。

I don't understand inflation.

有一篮子商品和服务被计算在内。

There's a basket of goods and services that are calculated.

它们的价格每年都会被计算，但在我看来，这个商品和服务篮子的构成似乎是个相对随意的选择。

The price of them is calculated every year, but what's in that basket of goods and services seems to me to be a relatively arbitrary choice.

我的意思是，考虑到许多制造品等商品价格已大幅下降，你凭什么认为过去三十年确实存在客观可靠的通货膨胀？

I mean, what makes you think that there has in fact been objectively reliable inflation, say over the last thirty years, given, for example, that many, many manufactured goods and so forth have got dramatically cheaper?

现在，要知道许多地方的房价已经飙升到了惊人的程度。

Now, know housing in many places has skyrocketed to a tremendous degree.

但你真的觉得货币已经贬值了吗？你依靠什么来证明这一点？

But do you really feel that the currency has become corrupted and that you can and what do you rely on to make that case?

你依赖什么数据？

What data do you rely on?

我想我可以插句话。

I could jump in here, I think.

毫无疑问是货币贬值。

Would say unquestionably debasement of the currency.

收割自由市场经济创造的经济盈余。

Harvesting of the economic surplus a productive free market economy is creating.

因此，随着经济效率提高，它会创造更多财富，这些财富以价格下降的形式回馈给市场参与者。

So as an economy gets more efficient, it generates more wealth that's passed back into mark to market actors in the form of declining prices.

所以我们在制造椅子、提供服务、电子产品等各方面都变得越来越聪明。

So we're getting smarter at making chairs, smarter providing services, electronics, all these things.

但通过印钞，你实际上是在窃取对经济剩余的生产性要求，并随意分配这些要求。

But by printing money, you're basically, stealing claims on that productive on that economic surplus and doling it out arbitrarily.

因此我们可以说，另一种思考方式是自由市场本身，正如乔丹你所描述的，它是一个分布式计算系统。

So we could say another way to think about this is that the free market itself, as you've described, Jordan, it's a distributed computing system.

我们每个人大约有每秒120比特的有意识注意力。

So we all have our, you know, 120 bits per second conscious attention span.

将这个数字乘以80亿市场参与者，那就是自由市场的认知能力，对吧？

You multiply that out by 8,000,000,000 market participants, that is the cognitive power of the free market, right?

我想强调这一点，因为它非常重要，但很容易被忽略。有些人崇拜中央计划的思想，认为可能有40个人在做中央计划，他们可能是世界上最聪明的人。但如果他们没有自由市场价格作为参考，就必须实时计算近乎无限的信息量。

I want to emphasize that because because it's such an important point, and we could easily be skipped over because, you know, there are people who admire the ideas of central planning and think, well, maybe there's 40 people doing your central planning and so maybe they're the smartest people in the world and they're doing your central planning, but they have to calculate on the fly a virtually infinite amount of information if they don't have free market prices at their disposal.

他们必须计算金属的价值、钉子的价值、劳动力的价值、橡胶的价值、清洁的价值、护理的价值等等。

They have to calculate what metal is worth, what nails are worth, what labor is worth, what rubber is worth, what cleanup is worth, what nursing is worth, etc, etc.

他们必须进行所有这些比较和计算。

And they have to do all those comparisons and they have to do those computations.

实际上这在技术上也是不可能完成的。

And there's actually no way even technically of doing that.

另一种方法是将这些计算分配给近乎无限数量的参与者，至少是数十亿的参与者，让每个人都充当计算设备并汇总所有结果。

And the alternative is to distribute that calculation across a virtually infinite number of actors or actors in the billions at least, and let every single person act as a computational device and sum all that.

这就是自由市场的作用。

And that's what the free market does.

它不是。

It's not.

这在原则上甚至无法被逻辑认知机制所替代。

It's not even in principle replaceable by a logical cognitive mechanism.

我看不出它是如何运作的。

I can't see how it is.

完全正确。

That's exactly right.

一个中央集权的官僚体系、集中式计算模型根本不可能与自由市场的分布式计算模型相抗衡。

It's not even possible that a centralized bureaucracy, a centralized computing model can compete with a distributed computing model of the free market.

事实上，我们可以说自由市场是一种纯粹的经济民主。

We could actually, in fact, say that the free market is a pure economic democracy.

人们通过买卖行为进行投票。

People are voting by buying and selling.

任何资产形成的价格，本质上就是其真实交易价值的体现。

And whatever price is generated on any given asset, that's effectively the truth of what it trades at.

任何干预——无论是管制、限价，还是像苏联那样的价格沙皇制度——都会将经济推向专制暴政的深渊，让少数人的武断意志凌驾于自由市场民主的选择之上。

Any intervention on that, any intervention, any regulation, any pricing czar as they had in The USSR, you move towards you move along that spectrum towards an economic tyranny, where we have now the arbitrary wishes of a few overriding what the free market democracy is selecting.

把这个话题拉回到美元的问题上——要知道，美元曾经是黄金。

And to tie this back to the problems with dollar, the dollar is, you know, the dollar was gold.

顺便说，法定货币永远不会在自由市场中自然产生。

By the way, fiat currency never emerges on the free market.

那种分布式计算模型永远不会自主选择法定货币。

That distributed computing model never selects a fiat currency by itself.

只有当自然法则被践踏，当他们逾越生命、自由和财产的界限，威胁说'要么接受这种技术，要么后果自负'时才会出现这种情况。

It's only when natural law is violated, when they step across the line of life, liberty and property and say, I'm going to impose this technology on you or else.

这是法定货币唯一一次出现的情况。

That's the only time fiat currency has ever emerged.

事实上，美元本身就像是一种诱饵调包手法。

And in fact, the dollar itself was just kind of a bait and switch.

它原本是可以兑换自由市场货币黄金的，后来被这种强制货币所取代。

It was something redeemable for free market money gold that was then replaced with this this compelled money.

再者，如果货币即言论，那么我们可以说法定货币实质上就是强制言论。

And again, if money is speech, we could say then that fiat currency is effectively compelled speech.

这是一回事。

It's the same thing.

他们是在强制推行一种价值语言，强迫你使用这种语言。

They're forcing a language, a language of value, they're forcing its use on you.

如果直指本质，当今的美元和所有法定货币在机制上都是金字塔骗局。

And if you boil it down to brass tax, the US dollar today and all fiat currencies, they are mechanically, they're pyramid schemes.

金字塔骗局本质上是一种网络营销体系，通过牺牲下层参与者来让上层获利。

So pyramid scheme is a system of network marketing, basically, that's using that's useful for enriching those in higher tiers at the expense of those in lower tiers.

你需要不断招募更多底层参与者来充实顶层。

And you're constantly recruiting more lower tiers to enrich the top.

而且

And

好的，让我们先简单对此提出一个反对意见。

that's Okay, exactly let draw an objection to that just briefly.

那么我暂时接受这个金字塔骗局的假设。

So let's I'm going to accept the pyramid scheme hypothesis.

但我要说这是一种金字塔骗局，它以牺牲未来为代价换取当下。

But I'm going to say that it's a pyramid scheme that sacrifices the future to the present.

但这并不重要，因为未来将比现在高效得多，我们完全能承受这种杠杆效应。

But that doesn't matter because the future is going to be so much more productive than the present that we can afford that leverage.

这难道不正是经济学的核心所在吗？

Would be so to make this is the kernel of economics, right?

关键在于我能推迟当下的消费或享乐，为未来投资，从而在未来享受更多。

Is that I can delay consumption or gratification today, invest for the future and then enjoy more in

未来。

the future.

法定货币和中央计划本质上逆转了这个逻辑——它诱导你当下消费负债，却无视未来。

Fiat currency and central planning more generally, reverses that it actually induces you to consume and take on debt today and disregard the future.

这就是我们之前讨论过的时间偏好提高现象。

This is the raising of the time preference that we spoke to earlier.

正如米塞斯所言，这种任意性再次表明：所有中央计划行为都与自由市场的自发选择背道而驰。

So that and its arbitrary nature, again, it's as Mises would describe, all centrally planned action is it runs countervailing to what the free market would choose on its own.

因此无论怎么做，当政府胁迫民众执行决策时，就不可能做出正确决定——因为他们正从经济中抽离生产要素来支撑这个决策。

So no matter what you do, the government cannot make a good decision if they're coercing people to do it because they're withdrawing productive factors from the economy to fund that decision.

以战争为例：市场可能从未选择开战，但政府却强行抽调经济中的生产要素将我们推向战争。

If they want to go to war, for instance, the market may have not selected to go to war, but a government has decided that, no, we're going to pull these, productive factors from the economy and push us into warfare.

这与民主的本质自相矛盾。

So it's contradictory to the essence of democracy itself.

所以你们真把比特币视为...你们确实将其看作分布式政府形态，

So you guys really see that bitcoin as a just you really do see it as a distributed form of government,

同样会对中央集权政府造成一些破坏性影响。

as well in some disruptive to centralized government.

是的。

Yes.

是的，我认为通胀的一个因素——这又回到我们之前讨论的话题，我觉得这是个基本观点。

Yeah, and I think one of the elements of inflation and again, this is the string back to what we're talking about earlier, and I do think it is a fundamental point to make.

但如果货币是我们表达牺牲、从而将价值观注入市场价值等级矩阵的方式，那么通胀就是在没有相应牺牲的情况下这样做，而其他人需要做出这些牺牲才能向市场传达这一点。

But if money is how we express our sacrifices, and therefore our values into the matrix of value hierarchies that exist in the market, then inflation is doing so without the commensurate sacrifices that everyone else needs to make into it to allow them to communicate that to the market.

因此这就是病态等级概念适用的地方——在一个自然形成的市场中，个人行为、选择、估值与向市场发出的信号之间的保真度是纯净的。我认为比特币就代表了这种纯净，当这种纯净以任何程度被稀释时，就会造成市场价值等级矩阵之间的不协调。

And so this is where the idea of pathological hierarchies is applicable is because a naturally emerging market where the fidelity between one's actions, one's choices, one's valuations, and the signal that they send out into the market is pristine, and I would make the case that's what Bitcoin, represents, whenever that is diluted in whatever capacity, you know, to a small degree or to a larger degree, that's what creates incongruencies between the matrix of value hierarchies that are out in the market.

如果信号是纯净的，如果我们都能完美地向市场传达我们的价值等级，在我看来就会出现涌现秩序。

If they are pristine, if we are all able to communicate with perfection our value hierarchies to the market, we will see, in my opinion, emergent order.

我看不出还能有其他可能性。

I don't see how it could be any other way.

当这个信号携带了替代信息时——不是通过我们调解混乱来赋予事物价值并通过行动表达的神圣过程，而是通过控制这个传达机制的他人的其他过程——就会出现偏差。

Where that gets thrown off is when that signal that we're sending carries alternative information, not information that we, you know, through our divine process of, you know, mediating chaos in order to bestow value on things and then express that through our actions, not that process, but through some other process of someone who controls the mechanism by which we communicate that.

因此通胀就是在没有相应牺牲的情况下改变价值等级矩阵之间的关系。

And so inflation is just is changing the relationship between the matrix of value hierarchies without the commensurate sacrifices.

而这正是产生病态等级的原因。

And that is what creates pathological hierarchies.

这也导致了您提到的不平等和分裂现象。

And that's what creates you mentioned, know, the inequality and the divisive stuff.

我们现在允许这种情况吗？我们不会堕入阴谋论的思维，我总是警惕任何涉及'他们'这种外部行为者的讨论。

Do we allow this with now we don't we're not going to degenerate into conspiratorial thinking, and I'm always wary of any conversation that involves they, an external actor.

我们作为全球共同体已经允许了这种情况。

We've allowed this as a global community.

如果我们所做之事存在你分析指出的缺陷，为何我们会允许其发生？

If what we've done is flawed in the manner that your analysis indicates, why have we allowed it to happen?

我可以说出谁从中受益，我们可以从这里开始探讨。

I could say who benefits and we could go there to begin with.

但重申一次，正如我所说，我对阴谋论思维持非常谨慎的态度。

But again, as I said, I'm very leery of conspiratorial thinking.

我倾向于将大规模社会问题视为每个人的问题，你明白吗？

I tend to think of large scale social problems as everybody's problem, you know?

那么你对此有何看法？

But So what do you think about that?

为什么？

Why?

为何我们会允许这种情况发生？

Why have we allowed this to happen?

比如说谁从中受益？为什么？

And let's say who benefits and why?

那么，又是谁在承受痛苦？

Well, and who suffers?

我赞同你的观点，99%的情况下我会将世界上那些可称之为邪恶或糟糕的事物归因于无能，而非其他因素，你知道的，这里涉及许多复杂因素。

I'm with you and 99% of the time I attribute, you know, the things that we see in the world that we might term evil or bad to incompetence and not I think, you know, there's many factors here.

但有一点是，这类事情是以慢动作的方式逐渐发生的。

But one is it happens, kind of it happens in slow motion.

因此人们最终无法看清这一点。

And so people end up not being able to see it.

比如就像你今天会说的，嘿，我有iPhone，我有Netflix，我们正在用Zoom通话。

For example, like you would say today, hey, I got my iPhone, I got Netflix, we're talking on Zoom.

世界运转良好且正确。

Things are good and right in the world.

我知道你经常讨论不是为了贬低，而是为了走出去改变世界，不要对世界现状过于批判，因为我们所经历的秩序近乎奇迹。

And I know oftentimes you discuss not to discredit, to go out and try to change the world, not to be too critical of the state of the world, because the order that we experience is almost miraculous.

但我想说，这其中存在一个可能让你无法看清事物如何变得混乱的因素。

But I would say that there's an element of that that may cause you not to see how things have become disordered.

我的意思是，这很难察觉。

I mean, it's difficult to see that.

所以当我们谈到刚才提到的通胀的破坏性影响时，很多人都难以理解这一点。

And so when we talk about the disruptive effect of inflation that I just alluded to, a lot of people have a difficult time seeing that.

我们可以客观地分离出世界上正在发生的问题：不平等、社会问题以及我们看到的所有疯狂现象。

We can objectively isolate problems that are going on in the world, inequality and social problems and all the craziness that we see in the world.

而我们把这些归因于各种原因。

And we attribute that to fill in the blank cause.

而我认为，我们主要应归因于市场传递的价值层级断裂所导致的秩序混乱。

Whereas I think what we attribute most of that to is the disordering that results from this fractured congruence of value hierarchies that are being communicated in a market.

我认为这才是大部分问题的根源。

That's where I think most of that comes from.

但这需要时间

But it takes time to

它以错误信息的形式表现出来。

play It's out in a form of faulty information.

没错。

Right.

而我们现在正在利用，我们仍然受益于那种秩序和结构，这种秩序结构可以说是金本位制以及由此培育的政治社会动力所强加的？

And we are leveraging right now, we are still benefiting from the order, the structure that was imposed as a result of, let's say, being on a gold standard and the political and social dynamic that that fosters?

在很多情况下，过去几十年我们一直依赖这种稳定性带来的红利。

In many cases, we've been living off the stability that that fosters for the last several decades.

我认为可以这样论证：尽管技术进步可能让我们觉得情况没那么糟，或者让我们分心。

I think you could make a case that despite technological advancement that might cause us to think, hey, things, you know, aren't so bad or may cause to distract us.

我认为可以说，我们一直依赖的那种稳定性的红利正在走向终结。

I think you can make the case that the equity that we've been living off of that stability is coming to an end.

而且我认为我们在许多不同案例中都看到了这一点。

And I think we're seeing that in many different cases.

但你知道，我认为这就是为什么它以慢动作发生，人们受教育程度不够或注意力不够，无法注意到正在发生的所有事情之间的关联。

But you know, I think that's why it happens in slow motion and people are not educated enough or necessarily paying attention enough to notice the relationship between all the different things that are going on.

好的，那么让我问你们一个关于2008年事件的问题，我可能完全搞错了，但我的理解是2008年危机从根本上是由技术革命引发的。

Okay, so let me ask you guys a question about what happened in 2008 and so I may be completely wrong about this, but my understanding was that the two thousand and eight crisis was fundamentally produced by a technological revolution.

这场技术革命类似于认识到可以将某种风险水平的投资（比如次级抵押贷款）进行打包。

And the technological revolution was something like the realization that you could take investments of a certain risk level mortgages, let's say substandard mortgages.

通过将它们打包成巨大的分层和组合，你们可以量化风险。

And by bundling them together in huge tranches and huge groups, you could quantify the risk.

而由于能够量化风险，就可以折现，使组合投资比单个投资的总和更有价值，我认为这是个绝妙的创新。

And as a consequence of quantifying the risk, could discount, you could make the group investments more valuable than they would be as the sum of the individual investments, which I thought was a brilliant innovation.

于是现在，银行公司交易这些大规模的次级抵押贷款，因为他们能够量化风险。

And so now the companies banks traded these huge tranches of subprime mortgages, because they could quantify the risk.

这意味着这些风险可以在财务上进行核算。

And that means that that could be accounted for financially.

因此风险被缓解了，但缺陷在于，没人意识到大规模这样做会增加房价在时间上和广大地理区域（例如整个美国）内产生关联的概率。

So the risk was ameliorated and the flaw was well, no one realized that doing so on mass would increase the probability that housing prices would become correlated across time across huge geographical regions, for example, across the entire United States.

于是房地产市场可能瞬间崩溃。

So the housing market could collapse all at once.

但你可以论证说这实际上是自由市场计算能力的缺陷，因为一项技术创新出现后扭曲了整个系统，随后政治体系不得不介入救援。

But so so I you could make the case that that was actually a flaw in the free market computing prowess because a technological innovation came along, warped the entire system, and then what had to happen was the political system had to rescue it.

我观察这一切时在想，政治体系是否嵌入在经济体系中（我认为这是你们根本的论点），还是经济体系嵌入在政治体系中？

And so I watched that and I thought, well, did I was the political system embedded in the economic system, which is I think the argument you guys are fundamentally making, or is the economic system embedded in the political system?

我对2008年事件的分析有什么问题？

What's wrong with my analysis of what happened in 2008?

难道不是政治行为者拯救了市场吗？

Wasn't it the case that the market was rescued by the political actors?

这不对吗？

Is that incorrect?

纵火犯正在灭火。

The arson is putting out the fire.

抱歉，请继续。

Sorry, go ahead.

不，你们可以随时插话。

No, could start you guys feel free to jump in.

首先，我建议你去了解一下所谓的欧洲美元体系，这本质上是我们在美国控制的金字塔式国内美元供应体系，但还有一个离岸衍生系统，大家都在试图挂钩央行无法控制的美元。

So I would first encourage you to look into what's called the euro dollar system, which is essentially these these this We control the pyramid scheme in The US, the domestic dollar supply, but there's this offshore derivative system where everyone's trying to peg the dollars that the central bank doesn't control.

这实际上被认为是2008年危机的根源。

That's actually been considered to be at the root of the two thousand and eight crisis.

然后这成了某种封面故事。

And then this was kind of a cover story.

但如果我们回到误差问题，可以说风险就是误差，对吧？

But if we just get back to error, so we could say risk is error, right?

当时存在这种我们自以为已计算并控制住的潜在风险。

So there was this embedded risk that we thought we had calculated and contained.

但实际上发生的是，由于我们实行中央计划货币制度，这正在将隐性风险推入经济中，对吧？

But what was actually happening is because we have centrally planned money, it's pushing hidden risk into the economy, right?

因为自由市场分配智慧——智慧被定义为纠错能力——却被中央货币计划所削弱。

Because the free market distributed intelligence, intelligence being defined as error correction, it's mitigated by the central planning of money.

这些隐性风险不断累积，这就是为什么自1971年以来市场波动性加剧。

So these hidden risks accumulate, and that's why we've had increased volatility since 1971.

我们经历过这些巨大的经济繁荣。

We have these huge economic booms.

我们印了一大堆钱。

We print a bunch of money.

通货膨胀高企，但资产价格也水涨船高。

Inflation runs hot, but so do assets.

每个人都以为自己做得很好。

Everyone thinks they're doing really well.

然后我们会看到这些灾难性的回调，使经济回归现实。

And then we have these catastrophic retracements back to economic reality.

实际上那是

And actually That's

因为对风险的渐进式反应并未得到实施。

because incremental, incremental reaction to risk is not not being implemented.

那就是我们

That's what We're you

实质上就是认知与现实的背离。

diverging perceptions from reality effectively.

所以即使是2020年3月的市场修正，那也是市场史上最急剧的流动性崩溃，比1929年还要迅猛。

So even the correction in March 2020, that was the sharpest liquidity collapse in the history of markets It was faster than 1929.

因此我们可以预见，随着更多法定货币（这种人为流动性）被注入系统，它会进一步扭曲经济感知能力，造成更剧烈的繁荣与萧条交替。

So we would expect as more fiat currency, which is artificial liquidity, is pumped into the system, it's further distorting this economic perceptual faculty and creates even more volatile boom and bust.

简而言之，这就是奥地利商业周期理论。

This is the Austrian business cycle theory in a nutshell.

而解决这个问题的唯一方法就是让自由市场自行纠错。

And the only way this the only way to resolve this is to let the free market clear errors.

这就是市场的功能。

That's what it does.

顺便说一句，这也是意识的运作方式。

That's what consciousness does too, by the way.

所以你可以把自由市场想象成我们通过价格信号相互连接的集体意识。

So you think of the free market as our interconnected consciousnesses mediated by the price signal.

当你干扰价格信号时，我们的意识会分裂，错误和崩溃就会增加。

When you disturb the price signal, our consciousnesses become divided, and we have increased errors and blow ups.

这就是为什么我建议人们不要进行欺骗，因为这会扭曲价值信号并扭曲他们自己的意识。

Well, that's why I suggest people that they don't engage in deception because they distort the value signals and they warp their own consciousness.

这样做非常危险。

It's a very dangerous thing to do.

那是

That's

对的。

right.

因为你只有在

Because you only use deception to

这正是金钱的作用。

Exactly what money does.

这正是法定货币所做的。

That's exactly what fiat money does.

法定货币就是一个活生生的谎言。

Fiat currency is a living lie.

简而言之就是这样。

That's what that's that's it in a nutshell.

也许为了让这个观点更贴近生活，你提出的问题也可以重新表述，选择一个人们更熟悉的例子。

And maybe to to bring this home, the question you asked could also be rephrased to to pick a more, like, an example that people might be familiar with.

你也可以问，比如，吸毒者或酗酒者是因为戒断反应而被酒精拯救的吗？

You could also ask, like, was the drug addict or was the person suffering from alcoholism saved by alcohol because he suffered withdrawal?

这就像是一个非常相似的问题。

And that's like a very similar question.

然后你可以辩称，是的，我们给他用了那种物质，他活下来了，所以他能挺过来是件好事。

And then you could argue, yes, we gave we gave him the substance and he survived, so it was a good thing He made it through.

但实际上需要的，你知道，那种方法并不是根治之道。

But what would actually be necessary is kind of, you know, like, that's not the cure.

你需要彻底戒断才行。

You you you would need to quit cold turkey.

这就是比特币支持者所主张的——或者说，倡导健全货币的人普遍认为，我们必须摆脱可以任意操纵的法币体系，这种体系扭曲价格信号，操纵整个经济。

And that's what Bitcoiners are arguing or just in general, people advocating for sound money are arguing that we need to get off the fiat standard that can be arbitrarily manipulated and manipulates the price signals, manipulates the whole economy.

好的。

Okay.

这是奥地利经济学派的核心信条：货币供应相关的中央计划若不以渐进的市场决策为依据，就会产生不断累积的误差，最终导致周期性的繁荣与萧条。

So that's a fundamental tenet of Austrian Austrian economics is essentially that central planning in relationship to the monetary supply that isn't informed by incremental free market decisions produces error that accumulates and produces cyclical booms and busts.

这非常有趣，因为心理学上存在对应现象。

That's very interesting because there is a psychological analog to that.

其心理学对应表现为：当错误以渐进方式发生时未能及时反应，导致错误不断堆积并随时间复合放大，最终引发崩溃。

That psychological analog to that is failure to react to error when they're committed incrementally to store the errors up which compound across time and to collapse.

最古老的神话——比如我在《意义地图》中讨论过的美索不达米亚神话里提亚马特的再现——讲述的就是腐败积累引发灾难的后果。

The oldest myths, some of which I talk about maps of meaning talk about, for example, the reemergence of Tiamat in the Mesopotamian myth, which is the consequence of corruption accumulates and produces catastrophe.

本质上这就是大洪水神话的理念。

It's the flood myth idea, essentially.

所以奥地利经济学的商业周期理论，其实是对大洪水神话和巴别塔传说的重新诠释。

So the business cycle theory in Austrian economics is a recast of the flood myth and the Tower Of Babel.

是这样吗？

Is that right?

因为这是两个平行神话故事。

Because those are the two parallels, the two mythological parallels.

巴别塔本质上是行政过载和系统腐败，而洪水则是自然灾难的负面影响。

Tower Of Babel is administrative overload essentially and the corruption of systems and the flood is, you know, the catastrophe the downside of the of the or the natural catastrophe, I would say.

所以我认为你触及了这次讨论的一个主要观点：真理在不同尺度上都有体现。

So I think you hit on one of the main points of this discussion generally is that truth is represented across scales.

也许这就是真理定义的一部分——你能在不同尺度上看到它。

Maybe that's a part of the definition of truth is that you can see it across scales.

它以不同形式呈现。

It's represented in different forms.

这无疑是深层真理定义的一部分。

It's certainly part of the definition of deep truth.

没错。

Right.

所以当

And so when

我们研究意义地图时，我认为这正是我们如此感兴趣并热衷于讨论它的部分原因——因为我们把那些看似与市场金钱完全无关的真理

we look at maps of meaning, you know, I think this is part of the reason why we're so interesting and talk interested in talking about it is because we take those truths that are seemingly entirely unrelated to markets and money.

这完全关乎调解自然力量、现实结构，以及与构成生命的社会关系相结合，并试图找出两者之间最优的行为平衡。

You know, it's all about, it's all about mediating the forces of nature, the structure of reality in conjunction with the social relationships that constitute life and trying to figure out what behavior is most the most optimal balance between the two.

我认为我们可以将其延伸到金钱和市场领域

And I think we could carry that over to money and markets and

这很有趣，因为你原本不知道《意义的地图》本可以被称为《价值的地图》，显然金钱就是一张价值地图，但我之前没把价值地图和金钱做类比。

you it's funny because you didn't know maps of meaning could have been called maps of value and obviously money is a map of value, but I hadn't drawn the analogy between a map of value and money.

虽然回想起来，这似乎是件显而易见的事，正因如此我才对你提出的'不可腐蚀货币'理念产生了兴趣。

Although in retrospect, that seems like an obvious thing thing to do, which is why I got interested in your idea about an incorruptible money.

是啊。

Yeah.

所以你认为不可腐蚀的货币在计算层面具有优势。

And so you think of incorruptible money as a computational as computationally advantageous.

本质上，这就是这个理念的基础。

Essentially, that's the that's the basis of the idea.

没错，而且我认为比特币是以另一种形式存在的再生英雄。

Yeah, and I think again, pursue this, I think Bitcoin is the regenerative hero in different form.

它汲取自然之力，深入混沌与纯粹熵增的纯能量领域，通过数学运算输出我们人类在社会领域使用的最高级秩序形态——货币。

It takes the forces of nature, it digs into chaos into pure entropy into pure energy and let's say mathematics and spits out the greatest form of order that we as human beings use in the social realm, which is money.

它以最典型的、最极致的方式实现这一点。

And it does so in the archetypal way, the maximal possible way of doing so.

并且是以不可腐蚀的方式实现的。

And it does so in an incorruptible manner.

所以如果你综合来看，这些特征完全符合《意义的地图》中对再生英雄的描述。

And so if you take a lot, you know, if you take those things, you could easily, you know, that could easily have been talking about the regenerative hero as described in maps maps of meaning.

我认为比特币就是这种英雄的具现。

And I think it's represented in Bitcoin.

它在比特币中得到了实体化。

It's instantiated in Bitcoin.

这就是为什么它会产生如此启示性的效果

And that's why it's having such a revelatory effect

对它来说。

on it.

它也在客观世界和价值世界之间架起了一座非常奇怪的桥梁，不是吗？

Provides a really weird bridge between the objective world and the world of value too, doesn't it?

因为所有的计算都发生在客观现实中，这种客观真实且不可篡改的计算会产生一个准确无误的价值信号，至少理论上是这样。

Because all the computation occurs in objective, that's objectively real, and that objectively real incorruptible computation produces an unerring signal of value, or that's the theory at least.

好的，让我们实际讨论一会儿。

Okay, so let's talk practically for a bit.

然后我们再回到核心讨论。

So then we'll return to the central discussion.

我是说，埃隆·马斯克最近对比特币提出了异议，理由是——这算不算一个缺陷？

I mean, Elon Musk has recently objected to Bitcoin on the basis of, and maybe this is, is this a flaw?

随着比特币的生产成本越来越高，我们实际上消耗了更多能源，至少是以计算能源的形式。

Bitcoin becomes more and more expensive to produce as we proceed through consequence of that is that we do in fact use up more energy, or at least that's in one form, which is computational energy.

或许我们能通过市场内部的效率提升来弥补这部分损失。

Maybe we gain that back and, you know, efficiencies within the market itself.

你可以这么认为。

You could argue that.

但你对马斯克最近关于比特币的决定有什么看法？

But what do you think about Musk's recent decision with regard to Bitcoin?

我很想加入讨论，因为我对此写过大量文章。

I would love to jump in on that because I have written about that extensively.

我认为你说得非常正确，比特币可以说是一张价值地图。

And I think what you said is exactly right, that Bitcoin is a map of value, so to speak.

比特币最有趣的地方在于，它既是地图又是领土本身。

And what's so interesting about Bitcoin is that Bitcoin is both the map and the territory.

正如我之前所说，在信息领域，我们通常无法将地图与领土联系起来。

And as I've said before, in the informational realm, we cannot we cannot link usually, like, we cannot link the map to the territory.

这是做不到的。

You cannot do it.

比如现实世界中的事物，当你记录它时，你永远需要信任记录者。

Like, if if you have something in the real world, writing something down about it, you will always have to trust the person that wrote it down.

比特币世界最精妙之处在于，它利用了信息唯一可做的操作——通过转换将其锚定在现实世界。

And what's so ingenious in in the world of Bitcoin is Bitcoin uses the only thing you can do with information, which is to transform it, to anchor it to the real world.

这就是工作量证明的作用。

So this is what proof of work does.

这就是能量消耗的目的所在。

That's what the x the energy expenditure is for for.

这些能量被用于多种用途。

And the energy is used for various things.

它被用来保护系统安全。

So it's it's used to secure the system.

它被用来分发新币。

It's used to distribute new coins.

它确保历史记录不可篡改，因此也保护了过去。

It's used to make sure that the history becomes incorruptible, so it also secures the past.

所以它能做几件事。

So it it does a couple of things.

它还确保——甚至将时间本身去中心化，这听起来有点奇怪，但由于相对论和其他效应，保持去中心化系统同步非常困难。

It it also makes sure, like it even decentralizes time itself, which sounds kind of weird, but it's very hard to keep a decentralized system synchronous because of relativity and other effects.

因此，如果没有类似物理工作量证明的机制，在时间方面你就需要信任一个中央权威，因为事件的顺序（比如交易顺序）需要绝对的时间顺序。

So if you wouldn't have something like physical proof of work, you would need to trust a central authority in terms of time because the order of things, like the order of transactions, needs an absolute order of time.

所有这些问题的综合解决方案，就是中本聪提出的工作量证明系统。

And all these all these things combined are solved by the the proof of work system that, Satoshi Nakamoto introduced.

于是能源消耗——当你意识到这点后，核心问题就变成了：这值得吗？

And so the the energy expenditure, the basic question becomes once you realize that, the basic question becomes, is it worth it?

而社会总体上

And society in is general

这个词。

the word.

这就是

That's the

问题。

question.

对。

Yeah.

社会总体上会对各种事物提出这个问题，比如汽车值得吗？

Society in general asks this question about all kinds of things, like, cars worth it?

智能手机值得吗？

Are smartphones worth it?

互联网值得吗？

Is the Internet worth it?

所有这些事物，它们消耗了大量能源。

All these things, they they take up a lot of energy.

而比特币支持者认为，仅就稳健货币这一特性而言，比特币绝对值得。

And Bitcoin has argued that Bitcoin is definitely worth it for this for the sound money aspect alone.

马斯克通过法令认定它不值得。

Musk is by fiat that it isn't.

我的意思是让市场来决定。

Well, I mean letting the market decide.

很难解读马斯克最近的言论，因为特斯拉资产负债表上仍持有大量比特币。

It's it's very hard to decipher what what Musk meant with his recent comments because Tesla is still holding, like, a lot of bitcoin on their balance sheet.

我认为他们持有约20亿美元的比特币，且无意出售任何部分。

I think it's about $2,000,000,000 in bitcoin and they don't intend to sell any.

所以，你知道，这就像是一种政治博弈

And so, you know, like it's political game to

好的。

Okay.

那么让我问你，如果你们是对的——如果我理解有误请指出——理论上比特币生产和系统维护所消耗的能源，应该会被使用比特币作为交易工具的所有系统提升的效率所超额补偿。

But So let me ask you this, if you guys are right, tell me if I'm leaping somewhere I shouldn't be here, but what should happen is that whatever energy is expended in the production of Bitcoin and the maintenance of the system should be more than recouped by the increased efficiency of every system that use Bitcoin as a transactional device.

因此从整个系统计算，将会实现净能源盈余，而非净能源亏损。

And so the net energy, there'll be a net energy gain, not a net energy loss if you calculated it across the entire system.

所以只考虑比特币的生成成本而不考虑其带来的效率提升是一种错误。

And so it's a mistake just to look at the cost of generating Bitcoin in the absence of considering the efficiencies that Bitcoin would produce.

黄金的情况也是如此。

And the same is true for for gold as well.

要知道，就像它

Know, like, it

从地下开采黄金需要消耗大量能源。

takes a lot of energy to extract gold from the ground.

从历史上看，社会总体上对这个问题的回答是肯定的。

And historically, society in general answered this question in the affirmative.

是的，这非常值得。

Yes, it's way worth it.

就像，这值得我们去挖掘。

Like, it's it's worth to dig this up.

而且没错。

And Right.

但这是有限度的。

But there were limits.

对吧？

Right?

因为一旦矿石品位过低，到了某个临界点你就会停止提炼。

Because once the ore becomes insufficiently rich, at some point you stop refining it.

这是有上限的。

There's a limit.

但按照你的逻辑，比特币产生的能耗上限应该由市场对它的反应决定，而不是基于某种关于生态可持续性的武断判断，因为这纯属猜测。

But according to your logic, least the limit on the energy expenditure that Bitcoin produces should be produced by the market response to Bitcoin, not by some fiat judgment about whether or not it's like ecologically sustainable, because that's just a guess.

我们拥有的生态稳定性的最佳指标将是累积的自由市场决策，尽管这些决策本身未必很好。

And the best indicator that we have for ecological stability is going to be cumulative free market decisions, even though those aren't necessarily very good.

但它们比我们理性所能产生的任何其他方案都要好。

They're better than anything else we could possibly generate rationally.

为了澄清一点，然后我会让罗伯特深入探讨这个问题。

And and just to clarify one point, and then I'll let Robert dig into this.

比特币之所以消耗能源，并不是因为生产比特币需要能源。

Bitcoin, like, doesn't take energy because the production of Bitcoin takes energy.

比特币的生产遵循固定的发行时间表，因此是恒定的。

The production of Bitcoin, it's an emission schedule, so it's constant.

我们知道最后一枚比特币将在何时被挖出。

We know when the last Bitcoin will be mined.

那将会是在2140年左右。

It's it's gonna be around in 2140.

而且无论你消耗多少能源都无关紧要。

And it doesn't matter how much energy you expend.

这个过程不会加快。

It won't be it won't go quicker.

也不会减慢。

It won't go slower.

所以如果你更努力地挖掘，找到它会变得更困难。

So if you if you dig harder for it, it will be harder to find.

而如果你停止挖掘，找到它会变得更容易。

And if you stop digging for it, it will get easier to find.

这就是难度调整的巧妙发明。

So that's the genius invention of the difficulty adjustment.

因此比特币的生产与能源消耗之间不存在一对一的关系。

So there is no one to one link of Bitcoin production and energy expenditure.

而能源被用于不同目的，比如保障其安全性。

And the energy is used for different things, for its security, for example.

罗伯特，我想你有些话要说。

And, Robert, I think you you want to say a few things.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我会试着把几个点串联起来。

I'll try to dovetail and tie some things together.

这里的基本原则是：没有付出就没有货币价值。

So the general tenet here is there is no value in money without sacrifice.

我们必须消耗能源来保障货币供应或货币网络的安全。

We we there has to be an energy expenditure to secure the supply of money or the network of money.

这本质上就是防止其被腐化的保障。

That's what ensures against its corruption, basically.

如果我们放大来看，甚至...

If if we zoom That doesn't out even

都不需要任何成本。

even cost anything.

没错。

That's right.

然后有人会通过印刷货币随意从中榨取价值。

And someone would just arbitrarily suck value out of it by printing it.

对吧？

Right?

这就是中央银行设计的初衷。

That's what the central bank is designed to do.

所以如果我们再放大一点看，可以说世界经济的全部目的就是提高集体能源效率。

So if we zoom out a little further, we could say the entire purpose of the world economy is to increase collective energy efficiency.

这就是我们进行贸易和专业分工的原因。

That's why we are trading and specializing.

其实利润的本质就是这个，对吧？

That's what profits are, actually, right?

这表明我们已经

It's an indication we've