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AI智能体无处不在，以机器速度自动化任务并做出决策。
AI agents are everywhere, automating tasks and making decisions at machine speed.
但智能体会犯错。
But agents make mistakes.
Rubrik智能体云是唯一能帮助您监控智能体、设置防护栏并回滚错误的平台。
Rubrik Agent Cloud is the only platform that helps you monitor agents, set guardrails, and rewind mistakes.
让您释放智能体潜力，而非风险。
So you can unleash agents, not risk.
访问rubrik.com加速您的AI转型。
Accelerate your AI transformation at rubrik.com.
网址是rubrik.com。
That's rubrik.com.
节日是与家人团聚、欢庆佳节的美好时光。
The holidays are a time to gather with family and celebrate the season.
没有什么比用优质美味的肉类更能凝聚人心——它让每餐都值得铭记，因为美食能在餐桌上创造欢乐与联结。
There's no better way to bring people together than with quality, flavorful meat that makes every meal memorable because great food creates joy and connection around the table.
这就是您需要Good Ranchers的理由。
That's why you need Good Ranchers.
享用来自本地农场、预先分装的100%美国可信肉类，直送到家，让您减少备餐时间，增加相聚时光。
Enjoy pre portioned 100% American trustworthy meat from local farms delivered straight to your door, so you spend less time prepping and more time connecting.
新用户首三单立减100美元。
Get an additional $100 off your first three orders.
使用代码wire即可首单减40，第二单减30，第三单再减30，今日订阅goodranchers.com还可终身获赠免费肉类。
That's $40 off your first, 30 off your second, and 30 off your third with our code wire and free meat for life when you subscribe at goodranchers.com today.
纵观人类历史，在大多数政治辖区，货币平均每三十到四十年就会崩溃一次。
On average, the currency collapses every thirty to forty years in most political jurisdictions for all of human history.
无论您选择何种价值储存手段，在您有生之年都将遭遇严重的贬值。
Your storehouse of value, whatever it is, is going to be deflated terribly during your lifetime.
过去一百年中最优秀的货币是美元。
The best currency of the last hundred years is the dollar.
二十世纪的赢家货币，世界上最好的货币，已经贬值了99.9%。
The winning currency of the twentieth century, the best currency in the world, lost 99.9% of its value.
这可真是个赢家。
That's a winner.
好吧。
Okay.
现在你遇到了比特币，你谈论它时仿佛它是抽象化的黄金。
Now you come across Bitcoin, and you talked about it as if it was abstracted gold.
如果上帝不打算建立神圣银行来解决你所有的货币问题，那第二好的主意是什么？
If God's not gonna set up divine bank bank and solve all your monetary problem, what's the second best idea?
我们不信任政府。
We don't trust the government.
我们不信任地方银行。
We don't trust a local bank.
我们彼此也不信任，但我们希望这家银行能延续千年。
We don't trust each other, and we want the bank to last for a thousand years.
让我们继续构建这个比特币网络吧。
Let's go ahead and build out this Bitcoin network.
我今天的嘉宾迈克尔·塞勒创立了多家成功企业，几乎以任何标准衡量都很成功。
My guest today, Michael Saylor, started a number of successful companies, successful by almost every standard.
这仍不足以充分展现他全部的雄心壮志。
It wasn't sufficient to expand out the full scope of his ambition.
我要说这是最积极的评价。
And I would say that in the most positive sense.
因此他在2020年对比特币产生了浓厚兴趣，并一直站在金融革命的最前沿。
He became deeply interested in 2020 in Bitcoin, in consequence, and has been at the forefront of a revolution in finance.
他的公司现在持有流通中比特币的3%
His company now owns 3% of the Bitcoin in circulation.
而他十年前倾注心血创立的公司，也因此成为了极其成功的企业
And the successful company that he built with blood, sweat and tears, let's say ten years ago, become a hyper successful company in consequence.
他一直是比特币的布道者
He's been an evangelist for Bitcoin.
他使用宗教象征和术语来描述它
He's used religious symbolism and terminology to describe it.
他对比特币充满热情
He's on fire for Bitcoin.
我们今天讨论了一些你必须了解的事情
And we talked about things you really need to know today.
你需要了解迈克尔·塞勒是谁，他的野心从何而来，他如何将对奇幻科幻的热爱与父母的鼓励结合，最终造就了如今的成就；你需要知道比特币正日益成为像黄金一样被全球接受的货币标准
You need to know who Michael Saylor is, where he got his ambition, how his grounding in fantasy and science fiction allied with the encouragement of his parents to produce the ambition in him that has culminated in this consequence, you need to know that Bitcoin is increasingly becoming an accepted monetary standard like gold around the world.
基于此，过去一年发生了革命性转变，尤其是特朗普新政府的推动
That's there are revolutionary transformations on that basis in the last year, not least because of the new Trump administration.
无论你是年轻人、中年人还是老年人，如果你想了解如何存储构成你一生大部分时间的工作成果，就需要收听这期播客，听听迈克尔·塞勒的见解
If you're young or if you're middle aged or if you're old and you're trying to understand how you will store the work that will comprise much of your life, you need to listen to this podcast and hear what Michael Saylor has to say.
据我了解，你在2020年3月发现了比特币，这个时间相对较晚，而比特币已经存在一段时间了
So you discovered Bitcoin, as I understand it, in March 2020, which was relatively recently, and it had been around for a while.
你之前从事过许多其他事业，但据我理解，比特币让你的人生轨迹发生了横向转变
And you had been doing a lot of other things, but it moved your life laterally as I understand it.
我很好奇，你是一名工程师，软件工程师
And I'm curious, you're an engineer and a software engineer.
我想知道是什么发现和领悟让你产生了如此深刻的观念转变，你认为这种转变的合理性何在，以及你为何如此热忱地传播
I'm curious about what it was that you discovered and realized that produced this profound change in your orientation, why you think it's justified, and why you evangelized for
我想也是
it as well, I guess.
我在职业生涯的第30年发现了比特币。
I discovered Bitcoin thirty years into my career.
于是在1989年末，我创立了一家公司。
So I started a company late nineteen eighty nine.
三十年来，我一直经营着一家名为MicroStrategy的企业软件公司。
For thirty years, I had been running an enterprise software company, MicroStrategy.
我们于1998年在纳斯达克将其上市。
We brought it public on the NASDAQ in 1998.
最初我们专注于一项业务：销售能让银行、大型零售商或保险公司分析其数据库中所有数据、评估风险并制定营销活动的软件。
Initially, we were focused upon one line of business, which is to sell software that allows banks or large retailers or insurance companies to analyze all of the data in their databases and assess risk and come up with marketing campaigns.
如果你想分析商品关联销售、进行购物篮分析或任何风险评估，作为大型企业，你会希望建立专属的分析系统。
Or if you wanted to figure out what sells with what and do market basket analysis any kind of risk assessment and you're a large enterprise, you would want to build a proprietary analytical system.
我们称之为商业智能。
We call that business intelligence.
这项业务很成功。
So that was successful.
随后在我三四十岁的扩张期，我想要创造很多东西。
Then I was in my expansionary era in my thirties and in my forties, and I wanted to create lots of things.
于是我创办了另外10家企业。
And so I launched 10 other businesses.
我收购了所有优质域名，比如angel.com、alarm.com、strategy.com等。
I bought up all the domain names like angel.com and alarm.com and strategy.com and hope.
我创办的这些企业中，有些表现平平，有些则相当出色。
And I launched businesses and some of them were singles, some were doubles.
我还买下了voice.com。
I bought voice.com.
后来以3000万美元出售了voice.com，天使业务则以约1亿美元售出。
I sold it for $30,000,000 I sold the angel business for about a 100,000,000.
我们将alarm.com业务剥离了出去。
The alarm.com business, we spun off.
如今它已成为一家市值数十亿美元的上市公司。
It's a multibillion dollar publicly traded company today.
然后我又陆续推出了大概五六项、十几项其他业务。
And then I launched, I don't know, half a dozen, a dozen other things.
它们都失败了。
They just whiffed.
全都以失败告终。
They failed.
纯粹出于好奇，你的成功率大概是多少？
What was your hit rate just out of curiosity?
能估算一下吗？
Can you estimate it?
可以说在1990到2020年间，我最开始做的那个项目是最大的成功。
I would say that the number the thing I started with turned out to be the biggest success between 1990 and 2020.
接下来的项目算是个小成就，再下一个勉强及格，其余的都半途而废了。
And then the next idea was a small, you know, was a double and the next one was a single and the rest, sputtered out.
我投入了大量时间。
I spent a lot of time.
那些都是我最钟爱的项目，绝妙的创意。
They were my favorite idea, a great idea.
我深爱着它们。
I love them.
我在其中投入了大量资金。
I invested a lot of money in them.
结果发现世人的想法与我并不相同。
It turned out the world didn't think the same way I did.
我把它搞复杂了。
I overcomplicated it.
这是故事的重要部分，因为到2010年时，我们公司过度扩张，推出了很多业务——我想打造一个企业集团，10个业务板块，就像10个不同方向。
So it's an important part of the story because by 2010, we had overexpanded as a company and we'd launched, I wanted to be the conglomerate, 10, you know, like the 10 different things.
我发现其中一项业务运转良好，其他九项都不行。我意识到必须集中精力。
And I found that the one thing worked and the other nine things didn't And I couldn't, I needed to focus.
于是我们重新聚焦于核心业务。
So we refocused on the core business.
接下来的十年里，我经历了双重体验。
And for the next decade, I had two dual experiences.
一方面是职业经历，另一方面是个人财务方面的经历。
I had the experience professionally, and I had an experience personally in finance.
先说职业经历。
Here's the professional experience.
我每年工作2500到3000小时，与2000人共事，处理了10万件正确的事。
I worked two thousand five hundred, three thousand hours a year with 2,000 people, doing 100,000 things right.
我尝试了所有可能的方法。
I tried everything under the sun.
我们拥有5亿美元的企业软件业务，最终成为了赢家。
We had a $500,000,000 enterprise software business, and we found that we were the winner.
100个竞争对手中有99个已经破产或退出行业。
99 out of a 100 of our competitor, or 99 other competitors had gone bankrupt or left the industry.
我们是胜出者，而且是与微软竞争。
We were the winner and we were competing against Microsoft.
微软毕竟是微软。
And Microsoft is Microsoft.
所以我们就像纯粹的小巨人，可以说是对抗歌利亚的大卫。
And so we were the pure play, you know, call it the David against the Goliaths.
于是在接下来的十年里，我在研发上投入了大量资金。
And so for the next decade, I spent huge amounts of money on development.
这没有奏效。
It didn't work.
我在营销上投入了大量资金。
I spent huge amounts of money on marketing.
这没有奏效。
It didn't work.
我努力工作。
I worked.
我重建了公司所有的信息系统。
I rebuilt every information system in the company.
这没有奏效。
It didn't work.
我痴迷于人力资源系统，痴迷于销售系统和营销系统。
I obsessed over systems for HR, obsessed over systems for sales, for marketing.
我在数字广告上投入了大量资金，你能想到的我都试过了。
I spent huge amounts of money on digital advertising, everything you could imagine.
我经常飞往世界各地。
I would fly around the world.
我曾用一个月时间环游世界，在每个城市演讲，到处传播我们的理念。
I flew around the world for a month and I talked in every city, everywhere in order to get the message out.
所以我尝试了所有能想到的传统方法。
So I had tried every conventional thing imaginable.
十年后，公司规模仍停留在约5亿美元。
And 10 later, the company was still about a $500,000,000 company.
我们增长非常缓慢，就像在硬磕微软这样的公司——你离开美国都比摆脱微软的生态圈容易。
We were like a very low growth and we were banging our head against a company, Microsoft, which is more, you could more easily leave The United States than you could leave the domain of Microsoft.
它们简直无处不在。
It's, they're just everywhere.
根据我的职业经历，我觉得自己不是个蠢人。
So my professional experiences, I figured I'm not a stupid guy.
我非常努力工作。
I worked very hard.
曾有许多杰出人才与我共事。
I had brilliant people working with me.
我们尝试了所有能想到的办法，却无法撼动那些全球数字垄断巨头。
We tried everything imaginable, but we could not dent, you know, the digital monopolies of the world.
我们就像...就像一家僵尸企业。
And we were this, we were this, I'll call us a zombie company.
这是家能盈利、不会倒闭的上市公司。
It's a publicly traded company that makes money that won't go out of business.
这种公司很无趣，因为没有20%或30%的年增长率。
That's uninteresting because it's not growing 20% or 30% a year.
它不是谷歌。
It's not Google.
它不是脸书。
It's not Facebook.
它算不上巨头。
It's not a monster.
但你知道，像我们这样的公司有一万家。
But you know, there are 10,000 companies like ours.
对，对，没错。
Right, right, right.
大多数公司都和我们一样。
Most companies are like ours.
当然。
Sure.
所以我们当时在场。
So we were there.
接下来是我的个人经历。
And then here's my personal experience.
我对科技产生了极大的兴趣。
I got very fascinated with technology.
我写了一本名为《移动浪潮》的书。
I wrote a book called The Mobile Wave.
而在《移动浪潮》中，我
And in the mobile wave back, I That
那是2012年开始的，就是那本
was starting 2012, is that
书吗？
book?
我于2012年出版了它。
I published it 2012.
我在2010、2011年写的。
I wrote it 2010, 2011.
这本书的主题是：当软件非物质化时会发生什么——当软件运行在手机上，当计算机从桌下转移到掌中，当它不再是固态或液态而是气态，当你睡觉时手机就在枕边。
The book, the theme of the book is what happens when software dematerializes, when the software runs on a phone, when the computer goes from under your desk to in your hand, when it's no longer solid state or liquid state, but it's vapor state, and you go to sleep with the phone next to you.
移动世界会出现什么样的软件？
What kind of software would happen in the mobile world?
当然我们现在都知道了，对吧？
And of course we know all about it, right?
Instagram、Facebook、Uber等所有这些都是移动时代的产物。
The Instagrams, the Facebooks, the Ubers, all of these things became possible during the mobile era.
当软件运行在电脑上时，这些简直是不可想象的。
They were inconceivable when the software ran on a computer.
所以这本书的主题是，软件将从我们桌下跃迁到我们的衣物上。
So the theme of the book is, you know, software is going to leap from under our desk to our clothing.
我们会穿戴它，我们会持有它。
We'll wear it, we'll hold it.
它将变得无处不在，全年无休，并将带来变革。
And it's become ubiquitous twenty fourseven, three sixty five, and it's gonna change.
我们将使27,000种设备非物质化。
We're going to dematerialize 27,000 devices.
20,000家设备公司消亡，才成就了苹果的生存。
20,000 device companies died so Apple could live.
我们将击垮20,000家零售商，因为人人都想要亚马逊。
We're going to crush 20,000 retailers because everybody's gonna want the Amazon.
你会看到20,000家报纸被碾碎，因为谷歌和脸书吞噬了它们。
You're gonna see 20,000 newspapers crushed because Google and Facebook eats them.
这本书传达的信息是，你或许应该直接购买亚马逊或苹果的股票。
And, you know, the message of the book is, you know, you probably ought to just buy the Amazon stock or buy the Apple stock.
作为一名投资者，我用过去二十年担任CEO和公司创始人赚取的约2500万美元进行投资。
And as an investor, I took, you know, a decent amount of money, call it $25,000,000 that I'd made over the previous twenty years as a CEO and as a founder of a company.
我投资了这些股票，并获得了20倍收益。
I invested in these stocks and I 20x'd it.
在科技界，你该如何赚钱？
If you, you know, how do you make money in the tech world?
你要投资于人人需要、无人能挡、却鲜少人理解的领域。
You invest in something everybody needs, nobody can stop, and very few people understand.
就像2010年，如果你说'我觉得亚马逊会成功'，大多数人都会说你疯了。
Like most people would, the year 2010, if you had said, Hey, I really think that Amazon's gonna work, People would have said, You're crazy.
亚马逊在亏钱。
Amazon's losing money.
没人会这么做的。
No one's gonna do this.
你知道吗？
You know?
他们会觉得你疯了。
And they would have thought you're nuts.
我记得苹果的例子，如果你当时说：'我觉得iPhone是个很酷的东西'。
And if you had said, I remember with Apple, you say, Well, Apple, I think this iPhone is a cool thing.
他们会说：'不，最终手机价格会降到和诺基亚一样25美元一部'。
They would say, well, no, eventually it'll go to the price of $25 a phone like Nokia.
这会变成大宗商品。
It's gonna be commoditized.
他们撑不住的。
They can't hold.
他们的利润率太高了。
Their margins are too high.
他们的利润率会像戴尔或诺基亚那样崩溃。
They're gonna actually have their margins collapse like Dell or like Nokia.
当然，传统观点认为苹果不是好投资。
Of course, the conventional wisdom was Apple's not a good investment.
亚马逊不是好投资。
Amazon's not a good investment.
Facebook是什么鬼东西？
Facebook, what is this goofy thing?
当然，接下来十年发生的事情我们都知道了。
And of course, for the next decade, here's what happened.
我每月只需花一小时作为投资者就能致富。
I work an hour a month as an investor and I get rich.
明白吗？
You know?
赚五亿美元。
Make half a billion dollars.
不用工作。
Not working.
真尴尬。
Embarrassing.
你只需要在2010年买入'七巨头'股票就行。
All you gotta do is just buy the magnificent seven in 2010.
华尔街的传统智慧是：如果股票翻倍，你就该分散投资。
The conventional wisdom of Wall Street is if the stock doubles, you should diversify.
你应该卖掉一半仓位。
You should sell half of it.
如果苹果股价翻倍，就去买些IBM和惠普等其他电脑公司的股票。
If Apple doubles in price, go buy some IBM and some HP and some other computer company.
如果股价再次翻倍，你就再卖出部分持仓去买其他股票。
If it doubles again, you sell some more of the portfolio and you buy the thing.
他们的理念是：你必须保持投资多元化。
And their thought was, you gotta stay diversified.
但问题是苹果赢了，其他公司都输了。
But the problem is Apple won, everybody else lost.
曾几何时，苹果赚走了手机行业的全部利润。
At one point, Apple made all the money in the mobile phone business.
其他公司为了与苹果竞争合计亏损了不少钱。
Everybody else collectively lost money to compete with them.
亚马逊赢了。
Amazon won.
三星也是吗？
Samsung as well?
全部都是？
All of them?
是的。
Yeah.
如果你看看这个时代的赢家，对吧？
If you look at the winners in this era, right?
我是说，苹果曾是赢家。
I mean, Apple was a winner.
亚马逊曾是赢家。
Amazon was a winner.
谷歌、脸书都是赢家。
Google, Facebook were a winner.
三星是远东地区的赢家。
Samsung is the winner in the Far East.
沃尔玛跟上了。
Walmart kept up.
其他所有零售商，你知道的，大概只有两三家能勉强跟上。
Every other retailer, you know, it's like there's two or three that kind of keep up.
可能是沃尔玛，可能是塔吉特，但有2万家倒闭了。
Maybe a Walmart, maybe a Target, but there's 20,000 that went out of business.
作为一名临床心理学家，我知道任何青少年都难免偶尔会受到同伴压力的影响。
I know as a clinical psychologist that any given teenager is going to fall prey to peer pressure from time to time.
只要你足够用心倾听，人们很可能会告诉你一切。
If you listen hard enough, people are likely to tell you everything.
我们上七年级的儿子，开始结交一群不良朋友。
Our son who's in seventh grade, he's starting to fall in with a with a bad friend group.
青少年极度渴望融入群体，显然迫切想要有朋友，避免
Teenagers are desperate to fit in and obviously desperate to have friends and not to
成为被孤立和欺凌的目标。
be the isolated target of exclusion and bullying.
作为父母，我们该如何介入和参与？
How do we as parents get involved and engaged?
人们不愿进行这类对话的原因是他们不想面对情绪。
The reason people don't have these sorts of conversations is because they don't want the emotion.
你放任的时间越长，将来要收拾的烂摊子就越多。
And the longer you let it go on, the more mess you're gonna have to clean up.
我们的女儿在学校遭到了霸凌。
So our daughter was bullied at her school.
当这种情况发生时，我们该如何保护孩子？
How do we protect our kids when this is happening?
别让你的孩子在青少年时期与你渐行渐远。
Don't let your kids drift away when they're teenagers.
他们本不想这样，但如果你不注意，他们就会疏远你。
They don't want to, but they will if you don't pay attention.
你认为这部分是由于移动互联网世界具有强烈的中心化趋势吗？
Do you think that's partly a consequence of the like, is there a radically centralizing tendency of the mobile world?
存在
There
这种
is.
因此这越来越成为一种赢家通吃的局面。
And so it's increasingly a winner take all.
因为当所有人都相互连接时，帕累托分布就会失控。
Because when everyone's connected, the Pareto distribution goes out of control.
在我看来就是这样。
That's what it looks like to me.
每个细分领域几乎都被一个人或一家公司占据，因为万物互联。
There's like one person occupies each niche or one company because everything's connected.
微型市场已不复存在。
There's no micro markets anymore.
这些都变成了占主导地位的数字垄断企业，它们之所以能主导市场，是因为苹果公司可以在一夜之间向十亿iPhone用户推送新功能。
These all became dominant digital monopolies, And and they became dominant because Apple could ship a new feature to the iPhone over the weekend to a billion people Right.
对于
For the
电费的成本。
cost of the electricity.
而在苹果之前，柯达、宝丽来或其他公司必须研发新设备。
And before Apple, you would have to, Kodak or Polaroid or fill in the blank, have to create a new device.
这需要一年时间，然后还得花一年时间销售，而且还有可变成本。
It would take a year and then they would have to sell it and it would take another year and there's a variable cost to it.
所以当功能变成软件时，毛利率高达99%，还能覆盖一亿甚至十亿用户。
So when the functionality becomes software, there's a 99% gross margin, and you can give it to a 100,000,000, a billion.
是的。
Yeah.
对吧？
Right?
苹果可以推出Apple Music并把它提供给
Apple could do Apple Music and give it
为什么十亿知识产权所有权很重要？
to Why a billion IP ownership matters?
没错。
Right.
他们主导了铁路行业，拥有这些...我曾说过苹果会成为全球最有价值的公司，因为它确实是全球最有价值的公司——这是史上首次有企业能在一夜间为十亿人提供新功能。
And so dominated the rails and they be they had these you know, I used to say Apple's gonna be the most valuable company in the world because it's the most valuable company in the world because it's the first time one company could deliver a feature to a billion people overnight.
要知道，三四十年前我们根本没有这种可能。
Now, you know, we never had that thirty years ago or forty years ago.
因此这些自然垄断就这样建立起来了。
So there are all these natural monopolies that built.
某种程度上，微软主导了商业软件和...
And at some point, you know, Microsoft dominated, you know, business software and face
你是怎么这么早就预见到这点的？
How did you see that early?
我是说，你列举的那些公司相当准确，简直就是一份完美名单。
I mean, you the the companies you listed off, that was pretty good that was pretty good hit list.
就像你说的，你拼命工作到半死，但真正赚到的钱——或者说大部分收益——其实来自你说每月一小时的投资策略。
And like you said, you know, you worked you worked yourself half to death, all but the money that you made or the majority of the money you made was actually a consequence of an hour you said an hour a month in investment strategy.
这其实和比特币问题息息相关，因为你正在做的就是创造有利条件。
But like what and and this is germane to the Bitcoin question because one of the things you're doing is setting up the circumstance.
你预见到了数字世界的发展方向。
You could you saw the direction the digital world was going.
你押注其中，这本身就是一种承诺的体现。
You bet money on it, which is actually an indication of commitment to it.
而你的这些赌注都获得了回报。
And the bets that you made paid off.
在某些方面，这些回报甚至超过你在商业前线付出的努力。
And they paid off in in some ways more than your hard work on the business front.
要知道，这得回溯到...小学一年级的概念。
You know, you you gotta roll back to, you know, first grade.
我父母告诉我每读一本书就给我一毛钱，而我对漫画书特别着迷。
My parents told me they'd give me a dime for every book I read and I had a comic book addiction.
于是某个夏天我读了一百本书，还赢了个阅读比赛。
So one summer I read a 100 books and won some reading competition.
我从一年级就开始阅读，这让我尤其爱上了科幻小说。
I started reading in first grade and that led me to a love of especially science fiction.
我读完了三巨头——海因莱因、克拉克和阿西莫夫的作品。
And I read the big three, Heinlein, Clark, and Asimov.
我们这整个一代人，比如埃隆·马斯克、杰夫·贝索斯，很多都深受这些作品影响。
And my entire generation, you know, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, a lot of us were influenced by that.
是啊。
So Yeah.
我三年级四年级那会儿每周能读十本书。
I was reading 10 a week when I was, well, in grade three and four.
街对面的邻居有一整面墙的科幻小说，他允许我每周去拿任意数量的书。
My neighbor across the street had a wall of science fiction, and he'd let me come in once a week and take, you know, as many books as I wanted.
那时候我读的正是你刚才说的那几位作家。
And this time, I was reading exactly the same crew that you described.
我也很喜欢雷·布拉德伯里。
I liked Ray Bradbury too.
海因莱因有本著名作品叫《穿上航天服去旅行》。
One of the well, the a famous book by Heinlein is Have Spacesuit Will Travel.
书里早熟的少年造了艘宇宙飞船，被外星人抓走，在宇宙中冒险，从外星人手里拯救了人类，最后凯旋而归。
And and in the book, precocious youth builds a spaceship, gets picked up by, you know, bug eyed monsters or by space aliens, gallivants around the universe, saves the human race from bug eyed monsters, comes back.
因为他凭借勇气和能力拯救了人类，获得了MIT的全额奖学金。
And because he saved the human race through his courage and his capability, he gets full tuition scholarship to MIT.
我六年级读到这本书时，就认定自己将来一定要上MIT。
Well, I read that, I guess by sixth grade and I just thought I was going to MIT.
哦，是的。
Oh yeah.
所以我喜欢，然后在我们那个地方，我们以前常玩《龙与地下城》。
So I liked, and then my area, we used to play Dungeons and Dragons.
我们以前常玩桌游。
We used to do board games.
我们玩各种模拟游戏。
We play all these simulation games.
你知道，玩这些游戏时，他们会给你一本64页的规则手册和一套骰子，你要模拟海战、陆战或其他任何可能的场景。
And you know, when you play these games, they give you a 64 page set of rules and a set of dice, and you're creating a simulation of a naval battle or army battle or, you know, whatever it might be.
那正好是在计算机兴起之前。
That was just before computers got big.
所以我对这些非常着迷。
So I got very interested in all that.
这引导我走上了去麻省理工学院的道路。
That drove me down a path where I went to MIT.
我学习的是航天工程，确切地说是宇航学。
I studied spaceship engineering, or astronautics really.
在那里学习宇航工程时，我偶然发现了管理学院另一门叫系统动力学的课程。
And while I was there, you know, studying astronautical engineering, I stumbled across another course at the school of management there called system dynamics.
我对此产生了浓厚的兴趣。
And I became fascinated with that.
那是用计算机模拟人类行为。
It was the computer simulation of, human behavior.
人们正在构建
People were building
系统动力学领域的知名人物。
Big names in system dynamics.
杰伊·福雷斯特创立了这个学派，其核心理念是建立一个计算机模拟系统，用于展示当改变城市交通系统动态时会发生什么。
Jay Forrester founded the school and, the idea was build a computer simulation that shows what happens if you change the dynamics of a traffic system in a city.
经典的例子就是：我在城市外围修建环城公路，建立中心辐射式道路系统，铺设超级高速公路，目的是缩短出行时间。
I mean, the classic example is I build a beltway around the city and I build a hub and spoke system and I build super highways because I want to speed up travel time.
但结果总是如出一辙：城市规模膨胀了十倍，而通勤时间又回到了原来的水平。
But invariably what happens is the city increases by a factor of 10 and the travel times go back to what they were.
没错。
Yeah.
这就是反馈效应，对吧？
Because the feedback, right?
如果修完路后人们没有任何行为改变，那确实能提高通行效率。
If you built the roads and then no one reacted to it, then you would be able to get around faster.
是的。
Yes.
那样世界就简单多了。
The world would be a much simpler place.
是啊。
Yeah.
另一个经典案例是罗马俱乐部的预测——他们曾断言全球资源将在十年内耗尽，因为当时探明的石油储量只够开采十年。
Another classic example is you remember the Club of Rome study, you know, they declared that the world was gonna run out of resources within And 10 they declared it because all the oil reserves were for ten more years.
但仔细想想就会发现，石油公司只会有动力探明未来十年的储量，之后的勘探投入产出比会递减。
But if you thought about it, would realize that an oil company only has an incentive to identify ten years worth of reserves and everything after that's a diminishing return.
所以我们永远保持着十年储量的状态。
So we always have ten years worth of reserves.
因此如果——
And so if-
这是时间跨度问题，而非资源总量问题。
It's a time horizon issue, not a resource issue.
如果你将世界视为一个动态的非线性反馈系统，并考虑到人类行为或对你行为的反应，那么你的思维就会更加复杂，并开始意识到那些简单的线性模型是行不通的。
If you see the world as a dynamic nonlinear feedback system and you consider the human behavior or the reaction to what you do, then you're much more sophisticated and you start to realize the simplistic linear models don't work.
你必须考虑人类行为、经济学、城市规划以及商业规划。
And you have to consider human behavior and economics and urban planning and business planning.
因此我研究了这些领域。
And so I studied that.
我的论文就是围绕这个主题完成的。
I did my thesis in it.
我开始构建计算机模拟系统。
I started building computer simulations.
我向管理学院里的计算机科学家学习。
I learned from the computer scientist in the School of Management.
我对这所学校非常着迷。
I got very fascinated in the school.
我对政治、哲学、经济学产生了浓厚兴趣。
I got very interested in politics, philosophy, economics.
最终我又攻读了科学史的另一个学位。
I ended up taking another degree in the history of science.
你知道的，当我刚开始...
And, you know, as I started
你在哪里获得的那个学位？
Where did you take that?
在麻省理工学院。
At MIT.
也是在麻省理工。
It was at MIT too.
所以就在同一时期...
So at the same When were
你在吗？
you there?
1983年到1987年。
1983 to 1987.
我在那里的时候，还是一名空军学员。
And when I was there, I was also an Air Force cadet.
要知道，空军资助了我去麻省理工学院的教育费用。
Know, the Air Force paid for my education to go through MIT.
在这方面我非常幸运。
I was very fortunate in that regard.
这些都是背景故事，但我有作为空军学员和委任军官的经历。
So this is all just backstory, but I had the background as a cadet and commissioned officer in the air force.
我一生都在空军基地长大。
I grew up on air force basis my entire life.
我父亲是职业士官。
My father was career non commissioned officer.
所以我住在军事基地里。
So I lived on military bases.
经常搬家。
Move a lot.
经常搬家。
Moved a lot.
所以我见识了世界。
So I saw the world.
我有科幻背景。
I had the science fiction background.
我玩过《龙与地下城》，有奇幻背景。
I had the Dungeons and Dragons, the fantasy background.
我对科学史产生了浓厚兴趣。
I got very interested in the history of science.
这完全关乎范式转变。
That's all about paradigm shift.
你
You
知道吗，人们是如何接纳新思想的？
know, how do people embrace new ideas?
无论是哥白尼革命，还是相对论和爱因斯坦的思想，或是量子物理，又或是我引入铁路、电力、原油或无线电时所发生的一切。
Whether it's the Copernican revolution or whether it's, you know, whether it's relativity and Einstein's ideas, or whether it's quantum physics, or whether it's, whether it's what happens when I introduce railroads or electricity or crude oil or radio.
它是如何改变文化的？
How does it change the culture?
它是如何改变政治的？
How does it change the politics?
它是如何改变文明的经济形态的？
How does it change the economics of the civilization?
这就是我的学术背景。
So that was my academic background.
因此，我一直对科学技术充满 fascination。
So, and so I always was fascinated by science and technology.
在MIT时我身边都是技术专家。
I was surrounded by technologists at MIT.
我进入了太空领域，奇幻背景非常重要，因为在奇幻设定中，知道恶魔的真名就能召唤并控制它们。
I got into the space, the fantasy background was very important because in fantasy, there's this idea that if you know the name of a demon, you can summon them, you can control them.
名字具有强大的力量。
Names are very powerful.
当互联网兴起时，我正往邮件里输入sailormicrostrategy.com。
And when the internet hit, I was typing out sailormicrostrategy.com in my email.
我当时想，直接输入sailormicrostrategy.com会好得多。
And I thought, well, it'd be a lot better if I just typed out sailormicrostrategy.com.
然后我开始思考域名问题，这启发我去尽可能多地购买域名。
And I started thinking about domains and it inspired me to go and buy up all the domains I could.
所以我买下了Hope（希望），你知道，拥有'希望'是什么感觉？
So I bought Hope, you know, like, how would you like to own Hope?
拥有'希望'最棒的地方在于
Like the nice thing about owning Hope
那是什么时候的事？
That was when?
具体是哪一年？
What year was that?
大约在94到98年间。
Between '94 and '98.
没错。
Right.
算是相当早期了。
So pretty early.
非常早期的阶段。
Pretty early on.
于是我开始思考：到底有多少域名
And and so I thought How many domain names do
你觉得你
you think you
展开剩余字幕（还有 480 条）
我买了很多，但其中大约30个是经典词汇。
I bought a bunch, but I bought about 30 of the classics.
我的理念是：最有价值的是英语中那些积极正面、人人理解且能拼写的构造性词汇。
My idea was the most valuable thing in that is is a constructive, word in the English language that has a positive connotation that everyone understands, everybody can spell.
于是我买下了Emma。
So I bought Emma.
我买下了michael。
I bought michael.
Michael.com。
Michael.com.
我买下了mike.com。
I bought mike.com.
我买下了hope。
I bought hope.
我买下了voice。
I bought voice.
我买下了angel。
I bought angel.
我买下了Alarm。
I bought Alarm.
我买下了Speaker。
I bought Speaker.
你是怎么挑选这些词的？
How did you pick the words?
我是说，你列出了
I mean, you laid out
哦，我买下了所有我能买到的好词。
Oh, some I the bought text every good word that I could buy.
这是真正的数字地产淘金热。
It a real estate, a digital real estate gold rush.
没错。
Right.
对。
Right.
如果你愿意卖给我，我会买下它。
If you would sell it to me, I would buy it.
我猜，我当时怎么想的？
I figured, what did I think?
我想如果十亿人学会说英语，我给你举个例子。
I think if a billion people learn to speak English, I'll give you an example.
十亿人学会说英语，其中有多少人知道怎么拼写'战略'这个词？
A billion people learn to speak English, how many of them know how to spell strategy?
他们中有多少人对'战略'这个词有正面印象？
How many of them have a positive impression of strategy?
现在，我把公司命名为微策略。
Now, I name my company MicroStrategy.
告诉你，三十年来，我们一半的客户都念错了，念成微策略们。
Let me tell you, for thirty years, half our customers mispronounced it, MicroStrategies.
就像当你选了一个英语里不存在的词，如果你教给三年级或六年级学生，教育系统就是在扼杀这个词。
Like when you pick a word that's not in the English language, if you teach it to third graders or sixth graders, the education system is burning the word.
希望对你意味着什么？
What does hope mean to you?
对吧？
Right?
这和给公司起名Celebrelex不一样。
That's different than naming a company Celebrelex.
嗯。
Mhmm.
你知道，Celebrelex不是我们能拼写的词，也不是有意义的词，但希望，
You know, Celebrelex is not a word we could spell, and it's not a word that has a meaning, but hope,
天使。
angel.
能够购买文字真是个奇怪的机会，但事情确实就这样发生了。
Pretty strange opportunity to be able to buy words, which is essentially what happened.
而且这一切都发生在互联网时代。
And it happened in the Internet era.
是啊。
Yeah.
没错。
Right.
现在，如果我们转向移动领域，最让我着迷的是软件从后台办公室到办公桌，再到口袋里的演变。
Now, if we go to mobile, my fascination was this idea that if software goes from the back office to the desk, to my pocket.
它从固态变为液态，再化为气态。
It goes from solid state to liquid state to vapor state.
它无处不在。
It's all around me.
当我能和它对话时会发生什么？
What happens when I can talk to it?
当它能回应我时又会怎样？
What happens when it can talk back to me?
要知道，现在你需要发挥想象力了。
Well, you know, now you to have an imagination.
科幻小说的价值在于它告诉你，如果你掌握了科学与工程，就能计算出从美国到火星的最佳路线。
Science fiction, it's valuable because it says, if you learn science and engineering, you can figure out like, what's the optimal way to get to Mars from The US.
开始理解重力井。
Start to understand gravity wells.
你开始理解物理法则。
You start to understand physics.
这对故事的一部分非常重要。
That's very important for one part of the story.
但故事的另一部分是奇幻。
But the other part of the story is fantasy.
你知道，我是在网络空间里创造东西。
You know, I'm creating something in cyberspace.
我是工程师，可以想象把棒球投掷到轨道上。
I'm an engineer, and I can imagine throwing a baseball in orbit.
如果我投得足够快，它就能保持在轨道上。
And if I throw it fast enough, it stays in orbit.
如果我投得更用力，它就能挣脱地球引力场绕太阳运行。
And if I throw it harder, it breaks Earth's gravity field and orbits the sun.
如果再用力些，它就能挣脱太阳引力场，然后飞旋进入银河系。
And if I throw it harder, it breaks the sun's gravitational field, then it spins off into, you know, Milky Way.
这就是科幻小说或工程学教给你的东西。
Well, that's what science fiction or engineering teaches you.
奇幻故事告诉你，我可以投出棒球并让它变成一群海鸥落在头上，然后化作一罐黄金，因为它们就像
Fantasy teaches you, I can throw the baseball and will it to be a flock of seagulls that land on my head and turn into a pot of gold because they're like
这些都是小小的范式革命，那种奇幻。
Those are little paradigm revolutions, that fantasy.
对吧？
Right?
因为它们打破了常规框架。
Because they're frame breaking.
在硬件世界，意义在于你要受制于热力学和物理定律，最好牢记这一点。
Significance is in the hardware world, you're subject to thermodynamics and physics, and you better know it.
但在网络空间里，你不受热力学和物理定律的约束。
But in cyberspace, you're not subject to thermodynamics and physics.
你可以想象，我看着墙上的魔镜问‘谁是世界上最美丽的人’，对吧？
So you could imagine, you know, I look at mirror mirror on the wall, who's the fairest of them all, right?
然后白雪公主给了你答案，对吧？
And Snow White gave you the answer, right?
因为在童话故事里，镜子会回应你。
Because, you know, when that happens in a fairy tale, the mirror talks back to you.
它活过来了。
It comes to life.
你懂吗？
You know?
最终我们发展出了Zoom和视频通话。
And eventually, we got to, you know, Zoom and video.
很快你的iPad就变成了魔法镜。
And pretty soon your iPad became a magic mirror.
很快你就能和8000英里外的亲戚通话，这相当神奇。
And pretty soon you could talk to, you know, a relative of yours 8,000 miles away, and that was pretty magical.
但当你把AI加进去，让AI生成AI图像时，你对话的就不是人了。
But then when you put the AI behind it and the AI generates an AI image, you're not talking to a person.
你是在和天使或恶魔对话。
You're talking to an angel or a demon.
对吧？
Right?
所以现在如果你想设计那种东西，想设计魔法软件——为什么要用这些词？
And so now if you wanna design that stuff, if you wanna design a magic software- Why those words?
天使还是恶魔？
An angel or a demon?
是的。
Yeah.
是的。
Yeah.
因为你看，我今天想和你讨论的一件事是关于意象的运用，你在推特和比特币营销中使用的意象，因为你在很多方面有着独特的思维方式——你有工程背景，思考方式理性，但同时又涉足幻想世界。
Because you see, one of the things I wanted to talk to you about today was the use of imagery, the the your use of imagery in your tweets and your marketing for Bitcoin because, like, you you have a strange mind in many ways because you're you have your engineering background and you think that way, but you also have a foot in the world of fantasy.
这其实并不罕见，我是说，有很多工程师某种程度上都被幻想世界所吸引。
And that's a that's not a that's I mean, there's a lot well, there's lots of engineers that are sort of possessed by the world of fantasy.
你知道，他们生活在《星球大战》式的精神世界里。
You know, they live in a Star Wars ethos.
对吧？
Right?
而且他们中许多人的哲学观都深受青少年时期阅读的科幻作品影响。
And and many of them had their philosophy shaped by the science fiction that they read when they were in their early adolescence.
这些作品确实塑造了他们思想中宗教与幻想的底层结构。
And that really produced the religious and fantasy substrate of their thought.
但很少有人深入剖析这一点。
But there's not a lot of examination of that.
而你显然比他们思考幻想世界要深入细致得多。
But you thought about fantasy by all appearances a lot more in a lot more detail than that.
Shopify为全球数百万企业提供支持，服务对象既包括成熟品牌，也包括刚起步的创业者。
Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide supporting everyone from established brands to entrepreneurs just starting their journey.
通过Shopify丰富的可定制模板库，你可以轻松创建专业店铺页面，完美展现品牌独特个性。
You can create your professional storefront effortlessly with Shopify's extensive library of customizable templates designed to reflect your brand's unique identity.
利用Shopify的AI工具提升效率：只需点击几下就能生成吸引人的产品描述、抓人眼球的标题，甚至优化产品照片。
Boost your productivity with Shopify's AI powered tools that craft compelling products, descriptions, engaging headlines, and even enhance your product's photography, all with just a few clicks.
无需组建团队，你也能像专业人士一样开展营销。
Plus, you can market your business like a pro without hiring a team.
轻松创建并发布精准的电子邮件营销活动和社交媒体内容，让客户无论线上线下都能看到你的推广。
Easily develop and launch targeted email campaigns and social media content that reaches customers wherever they spend their time online or offline.
如果这还不够，Shopify还提供从库存管理到国际物流再到无缝退货处理等商业各环节的专家指导。
If that's not enough, Shopify offers expert guidance on every aspect of commerce from inventory management to international shipping logistics to seamless return processing.
如果你准备好销售，你就准备好使用Shopify。
If you're ready to sell, you're ready for Shopify.
立即注册每月1美元的试用期，今天就开始在shopify.com/jbp上销售。
Sign up for your $1 per month trial period and start selling today at shopify.com/jbp.
访问shopify.com/jbp。
Go to shopify.com/jbp.
再次强调，网址是shopify.com/jbp。
Again, that's shopify.com/jbp.
是啊。
Yeah.
我在MIT时，身边都是世界上最杰出的数学家和工程师。
Well, when I was in MIT, I was surrounded by some of the most brilliant mathematicians and engineers in the world.
但我的不同之处在于我是个相当不错的工程师。
But what distinguished me is I was a pretty good engineer.
我可能不是那种能拿菲尔兹奖的数学家。
Like, I probably wasn't like a fields metal mathematician.
对吧？
Right?
我不是那种人，但我确实是个好工程师。
I wasn't like that, but I was a good engineer.
但我有文科倾向。
But I had a liberal arts bent.
事实上如果当时经济条件允许，我本会去耶鲁大学攻读历史本科。
And the truth is if I could have afforded it, I would have gone to Yale and studied history as an undergraduate.
只是我当时身无分文，而且政府不会资助空军学员去耶鲁学历史——那里也没有ROTC项目。
I just didn't have any money and they didn't have an ROTC program or the government wasn't paying air force cadets to go study history at Yale.
所以我的爱情已成往事。
So my love was history.
历史、科幻、想象未来、幻想、构想另一种未来。
History, science fiction, imagining the future, fantasy, imagining an alternative future.
你会说自己是用图像还是语言思考？
Would you say you think in pictures or words?
图像。
Images.
你用图像思考？
You think in images?
我是个综合体。
I'm a synthesis.
所以我通常是这样的人——会向你解释为什么蒸汽机，你知道的，蒸汽机的调速器与中世纪俄罗斯实施的政治进程相似。
So I generally, I'm the person that would tell you why the steam engine, you know, and the governor of steam engine are similar to a political process that was implemented in medieval Russia.
就像我在思考各种机制及其在物理世界、政治世界、经济世界、幻想世界、魔法世界或任何其他世界中的运作方式。
Like I'm thinking about the mechanisms and how they function in the physical world, the political world, the economic world, the fantasy world, the magic world, the whatever world.
因此我总是能同时进行跨领域思考。
So I would always be thinking simultaneously across that.
所以当我进入麻省理工时，大多数人是为了学习工程。
So when I went to MIT, most of them were there to do engineering.
我实际上是半个文科生，半个工程师。
I was actually half liberal artist, half engineer.
这就是我的独特之处。
And that was what was different about me.
当然，当我从麻省理工毕业时，难道我要为别人工作，做他们吩咐的事吗？
And of course, when I came out of MIT, wanna I work for someone else doing something they told me to do.
我想要创造些东西。
I wanted to create something.
我想，我认为，你知道，当你
And I think that I think that, you know, when you
那种创业倾向至少在某种程度上与欣赏幻想的倾向相伴而生，因为创业活动与贸易开放度相关，后者正是创造力的维度。
That that entrepreneurial bent probably goes along at least to some degree with that proclivity to appreciate fantasy because, well, entrepreneurial activity is associated with trade openness, which is the creativity dimension.
因此，将这种创业倾向结合起来是合理的，因为要成为企业家，你必须能够想象可能性。
And so it it it it it it makes sense that you would have that entrepreneurial bent combined because you have to imagine possibility to be an entrepreneur.
对吧？
Right?
这就是奇幻元素。
So that's the fantastic element.
你必须构想出尚未存在的事物，然后去追求它。
You have to conjure up something that doesn't yet exist, and then you have to pursue it.
它必须能吸引你，所以你需要具备这种气质。
And it has to captivate you, so you have to have the temperament for that.
那么你现在还读小说吗？
So you've got do you like do you still read fiction?
不像以前读得那么多了。
I do not as much as I used to.
在我现阶段的人生中，我花更多时间阅读历史，比如从头到尾读完杜兰特的《文明的故事》每一卷，共15000页，还有美国通史《孕育于自由》，罗斯巴德的《美国独立战争前史》或经济思想史。
In my current stage in life, I spend a lot more time reading history, like cover to cover Durant's history of story of civilization, every volume, all 15,000 pages, all the history of America, know, conceived in liberty, Rothbard's history of America before the revolutionary war, or history of economic thought.
所以读很多历史、传记和货币理论。
So a lot of history, a lot of biography, a lot of monetary theory.
当然，现在我主要阅读立法文件和与数字资产、数字技术相关的政治经济领域发展，因为这类信息铺天盖地，而我需要对其发表见解。
And of course, today I spend my time reading legislation and all of the developments in the political economic world relevant to digital assets, digital technology, because there's a flood of it and I'm expected to have an opinion on it.
但当我能偷闲时，就会去读历史。
But when I can sneak away, I'll go read history.
艺术方面的兴趣呢？
Artistic interests?
景观建筑。
Landscape architecture.
我刚来时的住宅建筑师，我去了塔里森西。
Residential architect when I first came here, I went to Talison West.
弗兰克·劳埃德·赖特的建筑，遍布世界各地的所有建筑。
Frank Lloyd Wright's architecture, all architecture everywhere in the world.
对。
Right.
嗯，那确实是美学与工程的完美融合。
Well, that's a good blending of aesthetic and engineering as well.
非常贴切。
Very much.
是啊。
Yeah.
但要回应你提到的两个重要观点。
But to address two of your points that are important.
第一，在幻想中有施法的概念，对吧？
One, in fantasy, there's this idea of casting a spell, right?
所以，只要你能想象出来，就能施展它。
So, if you can imagine it, you cast it.
这是个非常有趣的想法。
That's a very interesting idea.
你能让世界变得更美好吗？
Can you make the world a better place?
你能以某种方式塑造它吗？
Can you shape it in a certain way?
而你提到的第二个关于隐喻的观点，对吧？
And the second point you brought up about metaphor, right?
意象。
Imagery.
是的，那个
Yeah, that
与天使和恶魔相关。
was in relationship to the angels and the demons.
你知道，如果你写一本关于某事的书，比如写一本200页长的关于比特币的书。
You know, if you write a book about something, you know, write a book about Bitcoin and it's 200 pages long.
我写过一本关于某事的书。
I wrote the book about something.
我发现五年后可能只有1%的人会读这本书，甚至0.1%。
What I discovered is 1% of the people will read the book in five years, maybe 0.1%.
这很... 当他们读这本书时，如果你想用200页或500页解释某事，他们可能读到结尾时已经忘了前50页的内容。
It's very, you know, and when they read the book, if you wanted to explain something in 200 pages or 500 pages, they might've forgotten what they read on the first 50 pages by the time they get to the end.
所以200页的解释远不如一句'哦，那是从网络空间冒出来的恶魔'来得有力。
And so a 200 page explanation isn't nearly as powerful as to say, Oh, that's a demon coming out of cyberspace.
没错。
Right.
这就是诗歌的力量。
Well, that's the power of poetry.
因为这就像'哦，那是什么？'
Because it's like, Oh, what is that?
那是网络空间中怀有敌意的演员！我应当感到害怕——所以世界上有太多过度解释的现象。
That's an actor in cyberspace with hostile intent I And should be afraid so there's a lot of over explaining in the world.
而我在现代社会的发现是，我们生活在一个信息过剩的时代，充斥着大量幼稚的信息。
And what I've discovered is in the, you know, in the modern world, we live in an age of abundance and there is so much infant information.
我... 我在YouTube上看了你的播客。
I, you know, I watched your podcast on YouTube.
我在疫情前就认识你，当时就被它们迷住了。
I came to know you before COVID and I was fascinated by them.
但后来我偶然发现了象棋视频，然后发现你可以整天醒着的时候都看象棋视频。
But then I stumbled across chess videos and then I found you could spend your entire waking day watching chess videos.
接着我意识到你可以用一生时间看马格努斯·卡尔森的象棋视频。
And then I realized you could spend your entire life watching Magnus Carlson chess videos.
然后我又发现，你甚至可能花一整天看不同的象棋评论员从30个不同角度解说同一场马格努斯·卡尔森的比赛。
And then I realized you could probably spend an entire day watching different chess commentators covering one Magnus Carlson game from 30 different points of view.
如果你想深入这个兔子洞，不管是饮食方式、肉食主义饮食、象棋、口袋刀，还是有人环球航行。
And if you wanna go down that rabbit hole, whether it's, you know, diets, the carnivore diet or chess or pocket knives or someone sailing around the world.
这里面确实有着无限的深度。
There is literally infinite depth Yeah.
然后网景和YouTube出现了，还有所有这些其他流媒体。
You know, and, you know, then comes along Netscape and YouTube, you know, and all these other streaming.
接着老天保佑，你掉进了TikTok的洞里，懂吗？
And then Lord help you, you fall into a TikTok hole, you know?
你开始滑动，然后YouTube决定抄袭这个功能，搞出了短视频。
And you're like, you start swiping and then YouTube decided to steal it and they have these shorts.
当你打开YouTube短视频时，算法正在思考：统计上最可能抓住你注意力、按下你按钮、刺激你多巴胺的是什么？
And when you pull up the YouTube short, you know, the algorithm is thinking, what is the statistically most likely thing to capture your attention and punch your buttons and hit your dopamine?
然后你发现自己不停地
And you find yourself going
是啊。
Yeah.
那个算法是天使还是末日？
Is that an angel or a doom in that algorithm?
没错。
Yeah.
要知道，你会被困住，如果不小心就会上瘾。
And you are, you know, you are stuck, and it's an addiction if you're not careful.
而且，
And and,
当然，它被优化来抓住短期注意力，这确实令人不安，因为心智越不成熟，就越容易被短期注意力吸引。
of course, well, it's optimized to grip short term attention, you know, and that's there's something really there's something really distressing about that because the more immature a mind is, the more it's gripped by short term attention.
这些该死的算法就是为了最大化短期注意力，随着内容变短，注意力的碎片也在缩短。
And these bloody algorithms maximize for short term attention, and the attention fragments are getting shorter as the content gets shorter.
所以我们实际上是在训练超级智能AI系统，让它迎合我们的享乐主义冲动来吸引我们。
And so we're literally training super intelligent AI systems to hook us in keeping with our hedonistic drive.
明白吗？
You know?
就是
It's just
所以那是个恶魔，我得说。
so that's a demon, I would say.
而且，你知道，那个
And that that you know, that
这不是一场公平的较量。
It's not a fair fight.
这不是一场公平的较量。
It's not a fair fight.
这是一个16岁男孩对抗世界上最聪明的AI，试图用灌输的图像让他上瘾。
It's a 16 year old boy against the smartest, you know, AI in the world trying to addict the boy to the imagery they feed.
对吧？
Right?
而且，所以，是啊。
And and so Yeah.
最聪明的工程师和最智能的AI系统，实际上以我们甚至无法理解的方式运作，因为它们是通过强化学习的。
The smartest the smartest engineers and the smartest AI systems that are actually operating in ways that we don't even understand because they're reinforced.
它们通过强化学习来学习。
They learn by reinforcement.
但它们对我们的理解，甚至超出了我们自己所意识到的程度。
But they understand things about us that we don't understand they understand.
回到我的沟通方式上，我意识到人们根本没有时间。
Coming back to my communication style then, what I realize is people just don't have the time.
比如在生活中，你可以含糊其辞地说：'你可以这样做，也可以那样做，自己做研究吧'。
Like, you can for example, in life, you can equivocate and you could say, Well, you know, you might do this and you might do that and do your own research.
如果你觉得如何如何，可能会发生什么，就去读这82页资料。
And if you think blah, blah, blah, that this might happen, and read these 82 pages.
是啊，是啊，
Yeah, yeah,
嗯。
yeah.
或者你可以直接说：'这是数字黄金，但它将以某个倍数碾压实物黄金'。
Or you can say, This is digital gold, but it's gonna crush real gold by a factor Okay.
的
Of
那么让我们直接跳到比特币这个话题，因为我仍然想知道，既然你已经铺垫好了背景。
So let's let's leap ahead into the Bitcoin issue because I I still wanna know because you set up the background now.
你已经描述过你的思维方式。
You've described how your mind works.
你描述了你识别模式并看到可能性的能力。
You described the fact that you recognize patterns and that you see possibility.
我想听听这如何引导你发现比特币，以及
I wanna hear how that translated into your discovery of Bitcoin and where that
去了。
went.
好的。
Okay.
好的。
Okay.
现在是2020年3月。
It's March 2020.
2020年3月，公司CEO迈克尔·塞勒已辛苦奋斗十年，带领2000名员工拼命工作，只为与微软和'七巨头'竞争，试图让这家名为MSTR的上市公司重获增长。
And in March 2020, Michael Saylor, the CEO, is slaved for a decade working infinitely hard, working his 2,000 employees infinitely hard to compete against Microsoft and Magnificent Seven and to put growth back into this public company called MSTR.
公司本身运营良好，但要知道，在资本市场里，一家年增长率仅1%、2%或4%的公司对任何专业投资者都毫无吸引力。
The company is perfectly fine company, but we're, you know, a company growing one, two, 4% a year is uninteresting to every professional investor in the capital markets.
我们尝试了所有可能的方法，却始终无法突破困境。
And we've tried everything under the sun and we cannot break free.
员工们拿着股票期权作为报酬，可股价却毫无起色。
And our employees are paid in stock options and the stock's not going anywhere.
对吧？
Right?
所以我当时陷入了绝境。
And so I am at a dead end there.
非常沮丧，智穷力竭。
Very frustrated, my wit's in.
而迈克尔·塞勒个人偶尔会买些苹果和亚马逊的股票，结果赚了大钱。
And then Michael Sailor, the individual, occasionally buys some Apple and Amazon stock and he's made a fortune.
我当时就想，这样下去不行。
And I'm thinking, this is not good.
为什么不行呢？
Why is it not good though?
因为我想深入探讨这一点。
Like, because I want to dig into that a little bit.
假设你有一家发展稳健的公司。
You had a company that was growing moderately, let's say.
它并不特别引人注目。
It wasn't spectacularly interesting.
虽然存在库存问题，但公司运作良好，业务表现不错，各方面都做得很好。
There were stock problems, but the company is quite functional, and it's doing quite well, and it does its thing well.
而作为个人，你做出了这些全垒打式的投资。
And then as an individual, you've made these, like, home run investments.
那么具体是什么让你感到不满呢？
So what is it that's dissatisfying you exactly?
令人不满的是意识到你在十年前就达到了巅峰，现在停滞不前，无法更进一步。
What's dissatisfying is to think that you peaked ten years earlier, you've hit a plateau, and you cannot you cannot go any further.
我明白了。
I I see.
所以这是一场陷入停滞的冒险。
So it's a plateaued adventure.
没错。
Right.
我们已经停滞了。
We've plateaued.
我们无法突破。
We can't break free.
你知道最令人不满的是什么吗？
You know, what's dissatisfying?
工作解决不了这个问题。
Work isn't fixing that.
令人不满的是看到埃隆·马斯克或马克·扎克伯格这样的人取得非凡成功，而你成长于那个时代，却感觉自己碰壁了。
What's dissatisfying is to see the Elon Musks or the Mark Zuckerbergs, you know, of the world have extraordinary success and you grow up in that generation and you feel like you hit the wall.
他们推出了Instagram，推出了Facebook，推出了电动汽车，而你虽然也创建了成功的企业，但现在却成了低增长业务，
They launched the Instagram, they launched the Facebook, they launched the, you know, electric car, and you somehow have created this it's a successful business, but it's now a low growth business, which is, you know,
为什么你会觉得这种落差在困扰你？
comparable Why you think that ground at you?
我的意思是，从很多指标来看，你已经在多个维度取得了成功。
Like, I mean, because in by many by many indices, you're multidimensional you were multidimensionally successful already.
你刚才提到那个所谓的'大联盟飞跃'没有实现。
Now you talked about the fact that the the big league leap, so to speak, didn't occur.
但究竟是什么让你特别困扰，驱使你寻求其他扩张途径？
But why in the world do you think that particularly disturbed you and drove you to seek other avenues of of expansion?
我只是想：难道就这样了吗？
I just thought, is this all there is?
应该还有更多可能。
There's gotta be more.
我曾想改变世界。
I wanted to change the world.
当你起步时总觉得自己能改变世界，但后来发现你只满足了世界上某个细分领域2%的需求，而这个领域现在已成为成熟的摇钱树业务。
You know, when you, you know, you start and you think you can change the world and you get to some point where you realize you fulfill 2% of the demand of a given niche of the world, which has now become a mature cash cow business.
而世界已经不再需要你了。
And the world's done with you.
你知道这种野心是从何而来的吗？
Do you have any idea where that ambition came from?
应该是遗传自我母亲。
Must've come from my mother.
我人生第一份工作是送报童。
When I was, my first job was as a paper boy.
就这样，我在俄亥俄州代顿市冒着严寒送报纸，那是1978年的大暴风雪。
And so I'm delivering papers in Dayton, Ohio through the bitter cold, the Blizzard of 'seventy eight.
后来代顿日报要举办最佳报童比赛。
And at some point there's gonna be a competition for the best paper boy of the Dayton Daily News.
我母亲给我报名参赛，还专门做了本参赛作品集。
And my mother enters me in the competition and, you know, she creates this book of entries.
你看，我是音乐家。
You know, I'm the musician.
我有藏书。
I've got the book collection.
我是游戏玩家。
I'm the gamer.
我擅长这个，精通那个。
I'm a this, I'm a that.
我发誓她肯定觉得我是天选之子，懂吗？
And I swear she must've thought I was God's gift, you know?
我完全没意识到，成为俄亥俄州代顿市最优秀报童未必是人生巅峰，但在她眼里就是。
And it never occurs to me that being, you know, the number one honor paper boy in Dayton, Ohio isn't necessarily the pinnacle of achievement, but in her eyes it was.
她给我报名参加了比赛。
And she entered me in the competition.
最后我得了第二名。
I ended up number two.
她对你充满信心。
She had faith in you.
但我觉得，在她心目中我是世界上最了不起的人。
But I thought, you know, she thought I was the greatest person on earth.
她总说，你会改变世界的
She's like, you're gonna change
这个世界。
the world.
弗洛伊德的母亲曾这样看待他，他说这给了他巨大的优势。
Freud's mother thought that about him, and he said that it had given him a tremendous advantage.
要知道，拥有一个对你怀有坚定不移信心的父母真是件特别的事，尤其是当他们确实发现了你身上那些‘看我是多么有用’的特质时。
You know, it's it's really something to have a parent who has, like, unblinking faith in you, especially if they've actually identified those elements of you that are Look how I was useful.
我是个聪明人。
I was a smart guy.
就像，我通常是班上的第一名，但在俄亥俄州中部一所公立小学里名列前茅，并不能为‘某人长大后能改变世界’这种想法提供统计学依据。
Like, I was, like, number one in my class normally, but being number one in your class in a public elementary school in Middle Ohio is no statistical justification for thinking someone's gonna grow up and change the world.
但我母亲相信这一点。
But my mother believed it.
她相信我。
She believed in me.
她将这种信念灌输给我，无论出于什么原因。
She imbued it in me and for whatever.
如果你的父母这样看待你，他们就会给你编程，而且这确实有效。
If your parents think that about you, they program you and it works.
所以不知怎么地，在我脑海中，我很早就被编程了，知道
So somehow in my head, I was programmed at an early age, know
要相信你能做到。
To believe that you could do it.
来自一位鼓舞人心的人物。
By an inspirational figure.
要相信我能做到。
To believe I could do it.
你认为
Do you think
那正是野心吗？
that was ambition exactly?
还是你认为那是对自己解决问题能力的信心？
Or do you think that was faith in your ability to solve problems?
因为这两者并不相同。
Cause those aren't the same thing.
对吧？
Right?
我是说，你可以想象这样一种情境会造就一个自恋的人。
I mean, you could you could imagine a situation like that that would produce someone who is narcissistic.
这与那种相信只要足够努力就能攻克问题继续前进的人，结果是截然不同的。
That's that's a different that's a very different outcome than someone who believes that if they hit a problem hard enough, they can crack it and move forward.
你知道，如果结合我父母的影响，尤其是我母亲，再加上我父亲也是个极具感召力的人物。
You know, if you combine the influence of my parents and my mother, especially with my father as a very inspirational figure as well.
他就像空军中士那样，早上六点半就会说：'立刻行动起来，明白吗，明白吗'。
He's like the he's the air force sergeant, you know, at 06:30 in the morning saying, Hit the ground running, Okay, okay.
这就是工作伦理。
So that's the work ethic.
他本人就是工作伦理的化身。
He was the work ethic.
明白吗？正直刚毅，努力工作，尽职尽责。
Okay, Straight arrow, work hard, you know, and do your job and do your duty.
我母亲则坚信'我儿子是全世界最聪明的人'。
My mother was, have the smartest son in the world.
他将改变世界。
He's gonna change the earth.
对吧？
Right?
那就是这两个了。
And so that was the two.
但你知道吗，当我开始阅读海因莱因的作品时，比如他的青少年故事和其他小说，你会发现里面都是这样的情节：一个十几岁的孩子即将前往火星，与火星人缔结和平，改变人类历史的进程。
But, you know, once I got into reading, you know, if you read Heinlein's, you know, stories, his juvenile stories and his stories are, Here's a teenage kid that's gonna go off, go to Mars, and make peace with the Martians and change the course of human history.
对。
Right.
对吧？
Right?
或者说，你能列举出每一个这样的例子
Or, you know, and you name them every one of
这些
these
所以
So
你在其中发现了英雄神话
you found that hero mythology in
你知道吗？他笔下所有角色都是鼓舞人心的形象。
You know, like all of his figures are inspirational figures, you know?
是的。
Yep.
对吧？
Right?
如果你思考海因莱因的伦理观，对吧？
If you think about the Heinlein ethic, right?
它强调自力更生和足智多谋。
It's like self reliance, resourcefulness.
没错。
Yeah.
你知道，
You know,
他也是个自由意志主义者。
he's a libertarian too.
非常明显。
Very much so.
我记得左派曾把海因莱因视为法西斯分子。
I know the lefties used to think of Heinlein as a fascist.
这事我记得。
I remember that.
当时让我很震惊。
It shocked me.
我13岁左右就意识到，我读的科幻小说都有政治隐喻。
Realized I when I was like 13 that the science fiction I was reading had political implications.
我可不这么认为，这不是我的理解。
I didn't think that, and that's not my takeaway.
我的理解是他说过：当你的居住地变得过于拥挤，有太多官僚主义的闲人指手画脚，告诉你该怎么生活、怎么呼吸、该做什么时——就是时候去寻找新边疆了。
My takeaway is he says, wherever you're living gets too crowded and there's too many bureaucratic busy bodies telling you how to live and how to breathe and what to do, it's time for you to- Find a new frontier.
去别的地方。
Go somewhere else.
是啊，没错。
Yeah, right.
向西走，去网络空间，去外太空，在他笔下就是去外太空，对吧？
Go west, go to cyberspace, go to out In his case, go to outer space, right?
对对。
Yeah, yeah.
你懂的，对吧？
You have to, you know?
嗯，边界无处不在，而你在数字世界中找到了它们。
Well, are frontiers everywhere and you found them in the digital world.
有些事情，你知道的，虽然总是充满挣扎，但最终总会带来好的结果，对吧？
And something, you know, it's always a struggle, but something good always comes of it, right?
在他所有的书里都是如此。
In all of his books.
对，对。
Right, right.
对吧？
Right?
所以你从他身上获得灵感，把他当作某种榜样人物。
And so you have the inspiration of him as, you know, as kind of a figure.
然后你从父母那里以不同的方式获得另一种启发。
And then you have the inspiration of your parents in a different way.
当然接下来，你开始阅读书籍，对吧？
And then of course, you start reading books, right?
如果你读得足够多，就会被前人的生活经历所激励。
If you read enough, you're inspired by the lives of human beings that came before you.
所以我认为，所有这些让我觉得自己生来就是要做点什么的。
So I think, all of that made me think I was put here to do something.
好的，好的。
Okay, okay.
对吧？
Right?
好的。
Okay.
到了2020年，我感到很沮丧，那是我职业生涯中一个非常关键的转折点。
And I get to 2020 and, I'm frustrated and it's a very pivotal point in my career.
我正在考虑要不要卖掉这家公司？
I'm just deciding, am I gonna sell this company?
我是该退休然后默默退出历史舞台吗？
Am I gonna retire and drift quietly out of history?
对吧？
Right?
多大
How old
年纪了现在？
are you at this point?
55岁。
55.
对。
Right.
对。
Right.
好吧。
Okay.
很多人55岁就停下了。
Lots of people stop at 55.
对吧？
Right?
他们决定退休，不管那意味着什么，然后他们，嗯，在接下来的二十年里寻找人生目标，这可不是什么好结局。
They decide they're retired, whatever that means, and then they're, well, looking they're looking for purpose for the next twenty years, which is not a good fate.
这不是个好结局。
It's not a good fate.
我见过很多人在这个年纪左右，你知道，他们某种程度上认定自己老了，就不再寻求新的冒险了。
I've watched this many people at right around that age, you know, they decide in a way that they're old and they stop looking for further adventure.
总的来说，那是一场灾难。
And generally, that's a catastrophe.
但当你遇到它时，你以为自己还没触及顶点。
But you when you hit it, you thought you hadn't hit an apex.
他们没能达到你期望的那个顶点。
They hadn't hit the apex that you wanted.
然后你在2020年发现了比特币。
And then you you found Bitcoin in 2020.
是啊。
Yeah.
嗯，你知道，我觉得我还没结束。
Well, you know, I felt like I'm not done yet.
对，我还没完呢。
Yeah, I'm not yet.
我已经发明了10样东西，但还没成功发明出什么。
I'd invented 10 things and that didn't work to invent something.
然后我尝试了10种不同的商业策略，而且都不是小打小闹。
And then I had tried 10 different business strategies and not small.
比如我回购了价值3亿美元的股票。
Like I bought $300,000,000 of my stock back.
就像，我要花掉数亿美元。
Was like, I'm gonna spend hundreds of millions of dollars.
而这家公司年收入才7500万美元，对吧？
And this is against a company that made 75,000,000 a year, right?
所以我投入巨资试图挽救它。
So I spent huge amounts of money to try to fix it.
我彻底重构了所有IT系统，重建一切，重新思考每个业务流程，你知道，想着只要我继续努力。
I literally rewired every single IT system, rebuilt everything, rethought every business process as the, you know, thinking if I just Work.
如果我更加努力并集中精力
If I work harder and focus
毕竟你是空军爸爸
As more you're Air Force dad.
是啊
Yeah.
是啊
Yeah.
问题是，有趣的是，这就是尽责性与开放性之间的矛盾，对吧？
Well, the thing is, the funny thing is, so that's the contradiction between conscientiousness and openness, Right?
因为尽责型人格是管理者和行政人员，属于渐进主义者
Because the conscientious types are managers and administrators, incrementalists.
他们解决问题的方式是优化现有做法
Their solution to a problem would be make what we're doing better.
但幻想型人格，开放型的人会认为，不对
But the fantasy people, the open people think, no.
不对
No.
无论我们在这条路上走得多高效，这都不是正确的路
Like, no matter how efficiently we go down this road, it's not the right road.
必须要有其他选择
There has to be something else.
必须要有彻底的变革
There has to be a radical transformation.
作为配偶、父母或领导者，人们都依赖着你
As a spouse, a parent, or a leader, people count on you.
但如果你总是疲惫不堪、注意力涣散，感觉不像自己，你又怎能以他们需要的方式出现呢？
But if you're constantly tired, unfocused, and just not feeling like yourself, how can you show up the way they need you to?
这就是Merrick Health的用武之地。
That's where Merrick Health comes in.
Merrick是一个顶尖的健康优化平台，通过全面的实验室检测而非猜测，揭示你体内真实的健康状况。
Merrick is a premier health optimization platform that uses comprehensive lab work, not guesswork, to uncover what's really going on in your body.
激素水平、甲状腺炎症、营养指标，这些关键数据。
Hormones, thyroid inflammation, nutrient levels, the markers that matter.
他们的专业临床团队会为你制定个性化的、研究支持的计划，无论是生活方式调整、补充剂还是处方治疗。
Their expert clinical teams build a personalized, research backed plan just for you, whether it's lifestyle changes, supplements, or prescription treatments.
当你了解体内状况时，就能清醒地生活，精力充沛地应对一切，为家人、团队和自己保持最佳状态。
When you know what's going on inside, you can leave with clarity, show up with energy, and stay sharp for your family, your team, and yourself.
访问marichealth.com并使用优惠码PETERSON可享9折，加入他们由专业医疗团队指导的优化计划。
Head over to marichealth.com and use code PETERSON for 10% off to join their guided optimization program with your personal medical team.
网址是Marichealth.com，优惠码PETERSON。
That's Marichealth dot com, code PETERSON.
停止猜测，开始引领，从Merrick Health开始。
Stop guessing, start leading, and start with Merrick Health.
现在我们要谈到一些极具变革性的话题。
Now we get to some very transformational things.
托马斯·库恩在《科学革命的结构》中提出了范式转换的概念。
So Thomas Kuhn in the Structure of Scientific Revolution, he introduces this idea of the paradigm shift.
他指出，当新范式出现时，总是由年轻人率先接纳。
And what he notes is that when a new paradigm comes along, it's embraced by the youth.
是啊。
Yeah.
持有旧范式的人都会消亡。
All the people who have the old paradigm die.
成年人接受新范式的唯一原因就是战争。
And the only reason the adults ever embrace it is a war.
所以，你知道有句名言，科学的进步是靠一场场葬礼推动的
So, you know, and there's the famous phrase, science advances, one funeral
是的，完全正确。
at Yes, a exactly.
对吧？
Right?
是的。
Yes.
所以我们在等老一辈退出舞台。
So we're waiting for the old guard to die.
但老狗唯一可能学会新把戏的时候，就是战争时期。
But the one time when it's possible for an old dog to learn new tricks, if you will, is when there's a war.
所以我2013年第一次看到比特币时
So when I first saw Bitcoin, I was twenty thirteen.
我对苹果和亚马逊着迷，通过私人投资赚了很多钱。
I was fascinated by Apple, fascinated by Amazon, making a lot of money in my private investments.
那是我的科技狂欢。
That was my tech ride.
当时我正全力经营自己的生意。
And I was working hard in my business.
我有20个点子准备用来挽救那家公司
And I, you know, I had 20 things that I thought I was gonna do to fix that business.
然后我看到了比特币
And I looked at Bitcoin.
我当时觉得，嗯，这东西挺有意思的
I was like, well, this is an interesting thing, you know.
你知道，某种去中心化货币系统，但就在那时政府关闭了一个叫Trade Sports的在线博彩网站
You know, some decentralized monetary system, but you know, right around then the government shut down, there was an online betting site called Trade Sports.
你可以去对任何结果下注。
And you could go and you could bet on the outcome of anything.
你可以对选举结果下注。
You could bet on the outcome of elections.
你可以对体育赛事下注。
You could bet on sports.
你甚至可以赌会不会下雨。
You could bet on whether it's gonna rain.
这曾是个挺酷的点子。
And it was kind of a cool idea.
政府后来叫停了它，因为他们经常这样——记得他们关闭了线上赌博。
The government shut it down because a lot of times when they're, remember they shut down online gambling.
2013年我就在关注这件事。
I was watching this in 2013.
我研究了比特币，还发了条著名的推文。
I looked at, Bitcoin and I tweeted very famously.
那会儿我发推文根本没人关注。
This is back when I tweeted, but no one cared.
于是我就公开了我的观点。
So I aired my opinion.
我的观点是：比特币很有趣，但我觉得它会走上线上赌博的老路。
And my opinion was, you know, Bitcoin's interesting, but I think it's gonna go the way of online gambling.
哦，你认为它会被封禁？
Oh, you think it'd be shut down?
我当时确实认为它会被封禁。
I thought it was gonna be shut down.
噢，没错。
Oh, yeah.
我鄙视。
I despise.
好吧，那个
Well, that
是个可能的结果。
was a likely outcome.
是啊。
Yeah.
我要辩解一下，有很多充分的理由。
And in my defense, right, a lot of good arguments why.
直到2014年，美国国税局才将比特币认定为财产。
And it wasn't until 2014 that the IRS designated Bitcoin as property.
2013年时，还不清楚它会被定义为什么。
2013, it was unclear what it was gonna, be designated as.
但无论如何，我确实这么做了。
But in any event, I did it.
之后七年我都忘了这件事。
I forgot about it for the next seven years.
时间一晃就到了2020年3月。
I went off and we roll into March 2020.
2020年3月，你知道的，新冠疫情全面爆发了，对吧？
And in March 2020, you know, this entire COVID thing developed, right?
先是全球封锁，我对此很不满。
So first the world shut down and I'm not happy about it.
而且我不同意这种做法。
And I don't agree with it.
紧接着发生的第二件事就是我们全都转为远程办公了。
And the second thing that happens is we all go remote.
第三件事是，所有大型科技公司如亚马逊、微软，在挖走我们员工时面临的最大劣势在于，我们的员工需要举家搬迁、让孩子转学、卖掉房子，配偶可能还得重新找工作。
And the third thing that happens is all of the big tech companies, the Amazons, the Microsofts, their number one disadvantage in recruiting away our employees is all of our employees would have to get up, move across the country, take their kids out of their school, sell their house, and their wife would probably have to get a new job or their husband have to get a new job.
而我们的优势在于拥有紧密的团队，我们一起吃午餐，在办公室见面，建立了面对面的社区关系。
And our advantage was we had a tight group and we all had lunch together and we met in the office and we had a face to face community.
想象一下，当你最优秀的工程师只需坐在阿灵顿或维也纳的家里，将电脑指向微软服务器就能跳槽加薪时，你会作何感想。
So imagine how you feel when your best engineer is basically sitting at a house in Arlington or Vienna, and they can simply point their computer to a Microsoft server, change jobs, get a pay raise.
这些巨头公司会挖走我所有的员工。
All these mega companies are gonna steal all my employees.
如果他们挖走我所有工程师，也许现在我的产品还不错。
And if they hire away all my engineers, then maybe my product's good now.
我的产品更优秀，但我在对抗拥有更好产品的巨头企业。一旦他们挖走我的顶尖工程师，我就无法保持优势，他们就会把人才吸走。
I have a better product, but I'm fighting against monster corporations with a better product, but I'm not gonna be better once they've hired my best engineers away and they're going to slurp them, you know, off.
所以公司还有最后一张王牌。
So the company had one more ACE.
我们暗中依赖的底牌是：我们持有5亿美元现金。
The thing that we had in our back pocket that kept us, that we had relied on was we had $500,000,000 in cash.
我有2000名勤奋的员工。
I have 2,000 hardworking employees.
我拥有持续盈利的摇钱树业务，还有5亿美元现金储备。
I have a operating business that's a cash cow, and I have 500,000,000 in cash.
这笔资金在2010年前后的黄金时期，也就是金融危机前夕，利率曾达到5%至5.5%。
And that cash, you know, in the best period, back in 2010, just before the great financial crisis or, you know, in that range, interest rates got to 5%, 5.5%.
那时这笔钱每年能产生2500万美元收益。
And maybe you can make 25,000,000 a year on that.
后来利率被大幅压低。
And then interest rates got hammered down.
央行不断印钞，实际上强行压低了利率。
The central bankers kept printing money and they actually forced the interest rates down.
我当时没意识到他们在操纵利率，使其在那十年间保持低位。
I didn't understand that they were manipulating the interest rates to make them lower during that decade.
我是个技术专家。
I was a techie.
可以说我在技术方面非常精通，也很擅长经营企业。
I would say I was very technically sophisticated and I was very good at running a business.
我属于那种工作极其努力、精通本行业务的人。
I was in the category of work very, very hard and know my business.
但我不懂的是金钱。
But what I didn't understand was money.
也不懂银行业。
And I didn't understand banking.
更没意识到，当我拼命工作时，他们正通过通胀从后门把钱偷走。
And I didn't realize that as hard as I was working, they were taking it out the back door through inflation.
所以当我们进入那一年时，利率可能只有2.5%。
So the interest rates are maybe 2.5% as we roll into the year.
接下来发生了这些事。
And here's what happened.
新冠疫情封锁开始了。
COVID lockdown takes place.
引发大规模恐慌。
There's a massive panic.
所有这些股票都崩盘了，因为我们要让世界停摆两年。
All of these stocks crash because we're shutting down the world for the next two years.
它们当然应该崩盘。
Of course they should crash.
然后，政府看到这种情况，主流媒体、商界领袖和政客们都开始大声疾呼：降低利率。
And, you know, the administration looks at it and, you know, the hue and cry comes from the mainstream media and from the leaders in business and from the politicians, lower the interest rates.
于是杰罗姆·鲍威尔转身降息，一降再降。
So Jerome Powell turns around and lowers the interest rates and lowers the interest rates.
很快利率就从250个基点——比如隔夜利率——降到了零。
And pretty soon we've got interest rates going from two fifty basis points, like overnight rates to zero.
那么股市会怎样？
Well, what happens to the stock market?
这是能想象到最反常的事情。
And this is the most perverse thing imaginable.
到2020年，所有股票都复苏了。
By the 2020, all of the stocks have recovered.
就像在说：'哦，我们经历了危机，但通过把利率降到零解决了问题。'
It's like, Oh, we had a crisis, but we solved it by taking the interest rate to zero.
我们印了钱，股票就回升了。
We printed money and the stocks recover.
亚马逊复苏了。
Amazon's recovered.
苹果复苏了。
Apple's recovered.
迪士尼股价更高了。
Disney is trading higher.
人们基本上把迪士尼股价推高了一倍，他们交易是基于对2024年迪士尼流媒体视频收入的前瞻预期。
People are basically taking Disney up to double, and they're trading it based upon forward expectations of Disney streaming video revenue year 2024.
我目睹这一切，2020年发生的事，我认为是主街和华尔街的割裂。
And I'm watching this, and this was a, what happened in 2020, I would characterize as a bifurcation of Main Street and Wall Street.
你看到的是这些政策摧毁了主街经济，对吧？
What you saw was Main Street was destroyed by these policies, right?
主街被关闭了。
Main Street got shut down.
私营制造商、靠双手劳动的人、按时上班的人、小企业、中型企业。
The private manufacturer, the person that works with their hands, the guy that shows up, the small business, the midsize business.
顺便说一句，这些人就是特朗普的支持者。
This is the Trump constituency, by the way.
这些人被摧毁了，对吧？
These people get destroyed, right?
他们被彻底击垮，比如被告知‘你开健身房是违法的’。
And they're wiped at you like, okay, it's illegal for you to open your gym.
你会坐牢的，明白吗？
You're going to jail if you Okay?
然后华尔街那些管理着50亿美元股权投资基金、住在纽约和汉普顿的家伙们呢？
Go to And then Wall Street was you got guys running $5,000,000,000, equity investment funds living in New York and the Hamptons.
他们经历了人生中最辉煌的一年，乔丹。
They had the best year of their life, Jordan.
2020年是这些投资者三十年来最好的一年。
2020 was the best year in thirty years for these investors.
他们只需要持有股票或操作市场就能赚得盆满钵满。
They're making all you had to do was beholding the stocks or playing the market.
当利率降为零时，任何产生现金的公司的市盈率都会翻倍甚至翻三倍。
When interest rates go to zero, the P to E of any company that generates cash goes, it doubles, it triples.
房地产的资本化率翻了一番。
The cap rates on real estate doubled.
于是出现了荒谬的讽刺：你拥有一栋空无一人的大楼，而这栋楼的价值在四周内翻倍。
So the perverse irony is you own a building, no one's in it, The value of the building doubles in four weeks.
你拥有一家公司。
You're owning a company.
而所有客户都在破产边缘。
All the customers are being bankrupted.
公司价值翻倍了。
The value of the company doubles.
事情的起因是政府印钞。
So what happened was the government printed money.
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