微软股票抛售的解释

欢迎各位回来，感谢大家的参与。

Welcome back everyone and thank you for joining.

微软正在遭受重创。

Microsoft is getting crushed.

股价下跌了12%。

The stock is down 12%.

大量软件公司也在遭受重创。

A ton of software companies are also getting crushed as well.

无论是Adobe、Salesforce还是Intuit，你想到的任何一家都一样。

Whether it's Adobe or Salesforce or Intuit, you name it.

只要是软件类公司，很可能都在被抛售。

If it's in the software category, odds are it's being sold off.

我们需要花很多时间来解释软件公司，尤其是微软发生了什么。

We have a lot to go over to explain what's going on with software companies and in particular Microsoft.

毕竟，像这样一家最可预测、最优秀、最多元化的公司，单日股价暴跌12%，并不是经常发生的事。

After all, it's not a frequent event that you see this company, one of the most predictable companies, one of the best ones, one of the most diversified ones, sell off a staggering 12% in a single day.

这正在拖累整个市场的情绪。

It's dragging down the entire market sentiment.

这让投资者感到极度悲观。

It's making investors feel incredibly bearish.

与此同时，我们还有其他不同的故事，比如Meta股价上涨并发布了相当不错的财报。

In the meantime, we also have different stories going on right now like Meta, having a nice price surge and posting pretty neat earnings.

我们会看看Meta发生了什么。

We'll be looking at what's going on with Meta.

我们还有ASML，就在本周早些时候发布了财报，这是我重要的持仓之一。

We also have ASML that just posted earlier this week, one of my big holdings.

我们也会讨论这一点。

We'll be going over that as well.

我们还有万事达卡，这是我最重要的买入之一，今天早上也发布了财报。

We have Mastercard, one of the most significant buys that I've made, also posted earnings this morning.

我想重点强调一下我对万事达卡财报最重要的看法。

I wanna highlight what I think is the most important takeaway from Mastercard's earnings.

当然，我们还有特斯拉。

Then of course, we also have Tesla.

大家最爱的特斯拉刚刚公布了财报，数字惨不忍睹，看起来像是一家濒临死亡的公司。

Everyone's favorite Tesla that reported their earnings, the numbers were terrible, and it looks like a dying company.

然而，它的股价只下跌了2%，却是市场上估值最高的公司之一。

Yet the stock is only down 2% and it's one of the most richly valued companies in the market.

那么，特斯拉到底怎么了？

So what is going on with Tesla?

我们也会深入分析这一点，看看埃隆·马斯克正在带来什么新的方向和新希望。

We're gonna break that down as well and see the new direction and the new light that Elon Musk is giving.

这将会是内容最充实的一期节目之一。

This is gonna be one of the most jam packed episodes.

我们将深入探讨所有这些内容，解释这些公司发生了什么，以及为什么它们的股价会这样交易。

We're gonna be going over all of this in-depth to explain what's going on with these companies and why they're trading the way that they are.

那么，我们就开始吧。

So let's go ahead and jump in.

现在我们先来看我认为今天最重要的新闻，那就是微软。

Now we start things off by looking at what I believe is the most important news of the day, which is Microsoft.

微软这家公司在财报后下跌12%到13%，这种情况并不常见。

It's not every day that you see Microsoft, this company fall 12 to 13% after earnings.

事实上，这种情况几乎闻所未闻。

In fact, that's virtually unheard of.

像微软这样业务多元化、稳定且可预测的公司，很少会出现这种情况。

That rarely happens with a company this diversified and stable and predictable.

当我们看微软时，它正在拖累其他所有指数。

When we look at Microsoft, it is dragging down the rest of the indices.

它也在拖累我的投资组合。

It's also dragging down my portfolio.

我的投资组合今天下跌了大约1%到2%，与市场走势基本一致，可能略低一点，但毕竟还是受到了冲击，因为我确实持有微软股票。

My portfolio is down about one to 2% on the day, somewhat in line, maybe a little bit less than the market, but it is a hit after all because I do own some Microsoft.

我在被动收入投资组合中持有7万美元的微软股票。

I own the stock in the passive income portfolio, 70,000 of it.

即使经过这次下跌，它仍然盈利27,000美元。

It's still even after this trade down $27,000 in the green.

所以它仍然处于盈利区间。

So it's still well within the green.

我当初买入微软股票时，价格大约是2.20美元。

When I was buying Microsoft, I was paying around $2.20 for it.

我还在StoryFund里持有一小部分该股票。

I also own a little bit of the stock in the StoryFund.

今天下跌后，这一部分仍然盈利8,800美元。

This one is $8,800 in the green after the trade down today.

那么，是什么导致了这次下跌呢？

So what happened to cause this trade down?

乍一看，微软的财务数据其实很不错。

Well, at first glance, Microsoft's numbers look really good.

例如，如果我们直接看Qualtrics的数据，营收增长了17%。

For example, if we just jump into Qualtrum here and we pull up any of the numbers, revenue grew 17.

这看起来很棒。

That looks great.

我们有一个数字叫剩余履约义务。

We have that number called the remaining performance obligations.

你可能经常听到这个术语，RPO。

You're probably hearing about a lot, the RPO.

我称之为云积压，因为这本质上就是它所代表的意思。

I call it the Cloud Backlog because that's essentially what it is.

这个数字增长了很多。

And that's up a lot.

增长了110%。

That's up a 110%.

这确实引起了一些关注。

That does raise some eyebrows.

我们稍后会详细讨论这一点。

We'll go into that a little bit later.

我们的EBITDA也大幅上升。

We also have the EBITDA climbing dramatically.

事实上，这是一个显著的跃升。

In fact, that's a big spike.

看看上个季度EBITDA的攀升情况。

Look at the EBITDA climb just this last quarter.

我们的净利润看起来本季度也有显著增长。

We have net income, looking like it's having an extra, a strong climb this quarter.

这些数字看起来似乎不正确，但其实它们是准确的。

These numbers actually look incorrect, they're not incorrect.

这些是真实的数据，是真实的数字。

These are the real numbers, this is the real data.

我们的净利润在增长，自由现金流也大幅上升。

We have the net income growing, we have the free cash flow, that's also up dramatically.

看看本季度，相比上个季度，出现了巨大的跃升。

Look at it this quarter, this massive jump up from the previous quarter to this one.

为什么每股收益从3.72美元跃升至5.16美元？所有这些数字看起来都很棒。

Why did earnings per share jump from $3.72 to $5.16 So all these numbers look great.

事实上，有些数字好得让人觉得不太真实。

In fact, some of them look a little too good to be true.

有些数字看起来增长得太快了。

Some of them look like they're growing too fast.

但即便如此，微软的整体业务看起来依然非常强劲。

But even so, Microsoft's overall business looks very strong.

每一个数字都在向右上方攀升。

Every number is going up into the right.

那么，这是怎么回事？

So what gives?

为什么股价下跌了？

Why is the stock down?

正如你可能猜到的，你可能已经怀疑，这些数字中有些是不正常的。

Well, as you may have guessed, as you may be suspecting, there's some things that are inorganic with these numbers.

当这些数字大幅跃升时，微软需要解释背后的原因。

When they jump that big, Microsoft needs to give an explanation of what's going on.

而他们给出的解释揭示了微软一些出人意料的状况，这并非投资者所预期的。

And the explanation they gave showed something different about Microsoft, something that investors didn't really expect.

问题最终归结到收益电话会议上。

And it came down to the earnings call.

当我们查看收益电话会议时，这里有一个由Qualtrum提供的摘要。

When we look at the earnings call, we have a summary of it here in Qualtrum.

这是对他们所强调内容的简要总结。

This is a a summarized look at what they highlighted.

在‘与OpenAI的关系和递延收入集中度’这一类别下。

And under the category OpenAI relationship and RPO concentration.

请记住，递延收入就是云业务的积压订单。

Remember, the RPO is the cloud backlog.

当涉及到客户时，集中度从来都不是好事。

And concentration's never a good thing when it comes to your customers.

而这就是我们接触到整个财报中最重要的那句话的地方。

And this is where we get to the most important line of the entire earnings report.

大约45%的商业RPO来自OpenAI的承诺。

Approximately 45% of commercial RPO is from OpenAI commitments.

微软云业务的承诺中，几乎有一半都来自OpenAI一家公司。

Almost half of Microsoft's cloud commitments comes from OpenAI alone.

当我们看这里的图表时，再次回到RPO，我们有这张不错的图表。

When we look at the chart here, again, can go back to the RPOs, we have this nice chart.

我们看到它增长了很多，但当你剔除掉45%的部分后，它看起来并没有真正增长。

We see that it grew a lot, but then when you when you cross out 45%, it doesn't look like it's actually growing.

当你剔除OpenAI对RPO增长的贡献后，增长率从目前的110%降至28%。

When you strip out the OpenAI contribution to their RPO growth, it goes from right now the 110% to 28%.

所以它仍在增长，但远不及110%那么惊人。

So it's still growing, but it's a far cry from a 110.

因此，当你立即查看这些数据并真正考虑OpenAI所起的作用时，你会发现它几乎包揽了微软RPO的所有增长。

So immediately, when you look at the numbers and you actually factor in what what OpenAI is doing, they're making up for almost all the growth in their RPO.

这个数字的全部增长几乎完全来自于OpenAI。

This entire number, the growth portion of it comes almost entirely from OpenAI.

如果没有OpenAI，增长率只有28%。

Only 28% growth without OpenAI.

好的。

Okay.

但其他这些数字呢？

But what about these other numbers?

因为它们看起来也不错。

Because they look good as well.

例如，我们看到上个季度的EBITDA大幅上升。

For example, we have the EBITDA climbing up dramatically in the last quarter.

上个季度的净利润也大幅增长。

We have net income up big in the last quarter.

每股收益同样在上个季度大幅增长了60%。

We have the earnings per share likewise up big in the last quarter growing 60%.

那么，除了RPO增长之外，这些其他数字的解释是什么？

Well, is an explanation for all these other numbers besides the RPO growth.

但解释仍然是OpenAI。

But the explanation is again, OpenAI.

如果我们回看收益电话会议纪要，这里提到，排除OpenAI的会计影响后，每股收益仅为4.14美元，增长了24%。

If we go back to the earnings call transcript and we look here, it says that the earnings per share were only $4.14 up 24, excluding the accounting impact from OpenAI.

因此，摊薄每股收益这个数字实际上具有误导性，因为OpenAI获得了更高的估值。

So the diluted earnings per share number is actually misleading because OpenAI got a higher valuation.

而这一更高估值导致了来自微软约71亿美元的股权收益。

And part of that higher valuation led to about $7,100,000,000 in equity gains from Microsoft.

这些只是账面上的会计收益。

Now these are paper accounting gains.

这并不是公司自身的有机每股收益增长。

This isn't organic earnings per share growth by the company.

当你剔除这71亿美元后，这些数字突然就显得更合理了。

When you erase those $7,100,000,000 all of a sudden, the numbers here look a little bit more in line.

它更接近于这里。

It'd be more like right there.

因此，在OpenAI的影响下，它们的每股收益增长约为这里显示的60%。

So with OpenAI's impact, the growth of their earnings per share is about 60% that you see here.

如果没有OpenAI的影响，它们的增长率为24%。

Without OpenAI's impact, their growth is 24%.

仍然不错，但与这里报告的数字相去甚远。

Still good, but again, a far cry from the number being reported here.

这使得微软和所有每股收益数字在表面上看起来比实际情况更便宜。

And this makes Microsoft and all the earnings per share numbers look optically cheaper than they actually are.

所以现在，所有这些数字开始变得更有意义了。

So all these numbers are starting to make a little bit more sense now.

我们知道，快速的RPO增长或云业务积压是OpenAI的回应。

We know that the rapid RPO growth or cloud backlog is a response of OpenAI.

我们知道，净利润、每股收益和EBITDA的提升也是OpenAI的回应。

We know that the net income boost and the earnings per share and EBITDA are as a response of OpenAI.

微软的许多举措似乎都是由OpenAI驱动的。

It seems like a lot of what Microsoft's doing is as a consequence of OpenAI.

这正是投资者看待微软的方式发生结构性变化的原因。

And that's where we get a structural change in how investors are viewing Microsoft.

长期以来，直到今天，投资者都认为微软是一家极其多元化、可预测、甚至不可避免的公司。

For a long time, in fact, up until today, investors viewed Microsoft as an incredibly diversified, predictable, in fact, inevitable company.

它是一家在全球范围和客户基础上都实现多元化的公司。

It was a globally and geographically and customer based diversified company.

它的产品被地球上每一个角落的用户所使用。

It had everybody using its products everywhere distributed across all of planet earth.

由于在全球地域和财富500强客户群体中的广泛分布，微软一直被视为一家稳定、可预测的公司。

And Microsoft, because of that global diversification in both geographies and customers across Fortune 500 companies, was always looked at as a steady, predictable company.

一家极其可靠的企业。

One that was incredibly dependable.

当我谈到微软时，我也是这样看待它的。

When I talked about Microsoft, I also looked at it that same way.

我一再强调，微软在地理和客户层面都实现了多元化，这意味着没有任何单一实体能对微软造成重大损害。

I said that Microsoft over and over again was geographically and customer diversified, meaning that not one single entity could harm Microsoft to any significant degree.

正因为如此，微软被当作国债一样对待，一种极其可预测、几乎无风险的资产。

And because of that, Microsoft was treated like a treasury bond, like something that's so predictable, it's basically risk free.

它的信用评级甚至高于美国政府。

It had a higher credit rating than the US government.

因此，微软获得了溢价估值，市盈率高达三十五倍左右。

Because of that, Microsoft commanded a premium multiple, one in the mid thirties.

如今发生变化的是，投资者正在重新审视这家公司，对其整体结构的认知正在发生转变。

Now what has changed is that investors are looking at this and their whole framing of the company, the entire structure of it is being changed.

现在，微软看起来更像对单一实体的杠杆押注。

Now Microsoft looks more like a levered bet on a single entity.

这个让微软各项数据以惊人速度飙升的单一实体，就是OpenAI。

That single entity that's making all their numbers go up into the right at enormous pace is OpenAI.

这个让微软净利润在每股收益上激增70亿美元、影响其所有资本配置和主要云业务增长的单一实体，就是OpenAI。

That single entity that's causing their net income to jump 7,000,000,000 in their earnings per share, the one that's affecting all their capital allocation, the one that's affecting their major cloud growth is OpenAI.

现在微软看起来不像一家客户基础全球多元化的公司，也没有任何单一实体能决定其命运。

Now Microsoft does not look like a company that is globally diversified in its customer base, and there's no single entity that can dictate its outcome.

现在它看起来像是把大量筹码押在了OpenAI身上。

Now it's looking like one that put a lot of chips on the table into OpenAI.

简单来说，微软的成败很大程度上依赖于OpenAI，这使得投资者重新思考他们对这家公司的看法及其风险状况。

Simply put, Microsoft has a lot riding on OpenAI, and that's making investors rethink how they view the company and its risk profile.

因此，投资者今天抛售股票，并不是因为估值问题，也不是因为微软的实际表现不佳。

So investors are not selling down the stock today simply because of valuation concerns or because Microsoft is actually doing poorly.

他们今天抛售股票，是因为对公司结构的重新评估。

They're selling the stock down today because of a structural reframing of the company.

从一家高度多元化、稳如磐石的公司，转变为如今主要风险集中于OpenAI的公司。

From a heavily diversified inevitable company to one that now has a more singular risk factor, which is OpenAI.

你可以亲眼看到这种重新估值正在发生。

And you can see the rerating happen live.

这就是为什么像微软这样规模的股票会出现12%的单日下跌——这是重新估值的结果。

That's where you get a 12% down day, a rerating in a stock as big as Microsoft.

这种情况并不常见，因为像这样的事件，以及知道你45%的云业务都来自一家公司，这种情况并不常见。

These don't happen frequently because events like this and knowing that 45% of your cloud business is coming from one company, that doesn't happen frequently.

最初看到这些数据、看到递延收入增长时，作为微软投资者你会感到印象深刻。

Now initially when looking at these numbers and you look at the RPO going up, you're impressed as a Microsoft investor.

你和所有人一样，看到后会觉得这是好事。

You're like everyone else, you look at it and you think this is a good thing.

但当你得知其中45%来自OpenAI时，这给整体情况增添了一丝不妙的意味。

But then when you hear that 45% of it is due to OpenAI, that puts a little bit of a more sour note on it.

因为你知道这并非完全来自自然增长，而是高度集中于单一客户。

Because you know that it's not entirely organic, and it's heavily concentrated into one customer.

这本身从来就不是好事。

That's never a good thing in and of itself.

但接着你也会想，这一点我思考了一会儿：

But then you also think, and this is what I thought about for a minute.

OpenAI到底是从哪里获得资金，来承诺如此庞大的云业务预订量的呢？

Where is OpenAI getting the money to commit this much to a cloud backlog to begin with?

毕竟，OpenAI的承诺金额高达3500亿美元，但OpenAI的年收入并没有3500亿美元。

After all, OpenAI's commitments are in order of $350,000,000,000 OpenAI does not make $350,000,000,000 in revenue.

那么，他们的钱是从哪里来的呢？

So where are they getting the money?

当然，这是一个设问句。

Well, of course, this is a rhetorical question.

这些资金正是来自微软。

The money is coming from none other than Microsoft.

微软是OpenAI的命脉。

Microsoft is the lung of OpenAI.

正是它让OpenAI得以生存。

It's what makes them live.

如果没有微软，OpenAI将无法继续运营。

Without Microsoft, OpenAI would cease to do business.

他们将没有训练所需的基础设施，也没有资金支持。

They'd have no infrastructure to train on, they'd have no funding.

微软是资助整个运营的唯一资金来源，因为OpenAI自身根本无法支付这些承诺所需的费用。

Microsoft is the one funding this entire operation because OpenAI has nowhere close to pay for these commitments in and of themselves.

所以我们现在面临的情况类似于之前见过的情形：微软正在向OpenAI提供数十亿美元的资金。

So we have a situation here similar to what we've seen before where Microsoft is giving billions of dollars to OpenAI.

OpenAI由微软注资，然后通过承诺使用Azure云服务来返还这些资本。

OpenAI is being capitalized by Microsoft and then returning that capital with commitments to use Azure cloud growth.

微软反过来表示：看，由于这些承诺，我们的Azure云订单积压正在增长。

Microsoft's turning around and saying, Look at our Azure cloud backlog grow with all these commitments.

但这些钱正是微软刚刚交给他们的，他们只是把钱又还了回去。

But that money is the money that Microsoft just handed them, they're just handing it back.

因此，我们现在面临一个更复杂、更微妙的问题。

So now we have a more complex nuanced issue.

不仅微软的云业务高度依赖单一客户，而且这个客户本身也是由微软注资的。

Not only is Microsoft heavily concentrated into one customer for its cloud, but that customer is also capitalized by Microsoft.

如果没有微软，他们根本无法运作，也无法支付这些费用。

Without Microsoft, they couldn't even function or pay for this to begin with.

因此，这不仅构成了严重的集中度问题，还带来了循环融资的问题。

So not only makes this a significant concentration problem, it also makes it a circular financing problem.

我们已经识别出客户集中度的问题，这是由一家特定公司——OpenAI——导致的异常指标，同时微软财务报表中再次出现了循环融资的问题。

So we've already identified an issue of customer concentration, one of wonky metrics because of one specific company, which is OpenAI, and we also have the issue of circular financing making its way again in Microsoft's financials.

但还有一个更严重的问题，这或许是最大的一个问题。

But then we have one more issue, and this is perhaps maybe even the biggest one.

微软的资本支出增长已经失控，尤其是相对于其收入增长而言。

Microsoft's CapEx growth is out of control, especially relative to the revenue growth.

当我们查看微软的收入增长时，情况看起来还算不错。

When we look at the revenue growth of Microsoft, again, looks decent.

我们观察其随时间的增长，微软增长非常迅速，上一季度的增长率为16%至17%。

We look at the growth over time, Microsoft is growing very quickly and it's 16 to 17% as of last quarter.

我们看到了这种持续良好的增长。

We have this nice growth over time.

但如果我们把收入增长与资本支出增长相比，资本支出的增长速度是收入的三倍。

But if we look at that revenue growth relative to their capital expenditure growth, the CapEx growth is growing three times the speed.

当我们把这两者都从零开始标准化时，情况就是这样。

This is what it looks like when we index both of those to zero.

你可以看到，从零开始计算时，收入增长的速度实际上只有资本支出增长的三分之一。

You can see that when you're starting at zero, the revenue growth is growing at literally one third the speed of the CapEx growth.

这是按滚动十二个月计算的，每个季度都是如此。

This is on a trailing twelve month basis, every single quarter.

你可以看到，最近一个季度的资本支出增长相对于收入增长而言极为显著。

You can see the most previous quarter shows enormous growth in CapEx compared to the revenue growth.

微软还存在一个问题，即资本支出的增长速度是收入的三倍。

Microsoft also has an issue where the capital expenditures are growing three times the speed of revenue.

因此，当我们分析微软今天下跌12%的整体原因时，这是所有这些因素共同作用的结果。

So when we look at the overall reason that Microsoft's down 12% today, it's a combination of all these factors.

投资者看待微软的方式正在发生结构性变化，包括循环融资、对OpenAI的杠杆押注，以及现在微软的未来收入更加依赖于另一家公司——OpenAI。

A structural changing in the way that investors are viewing Microsoft, the circular financing, the levered bet on OpenAI, and now the fact that Microsoft's future revenue is more heavily dependent on a separate company, OpenAI.

如果OpenAI面临来自谷歌等公司的威胁，微软的收入就会受到风险。

If OpenAI is at risk from, say, let's say Google, Microsoft's revenue's at risk.

现在，当谷歌与OpenAI竞争时，它直接与微软对抗。

Now Google's competing directly against Microsoft when they're competing against OpenAI.

所以这是一个更复杂的问题。

So this is a more complicating thing.

再加上资本支出在增长，你就得到了一只下跌了12%的股票。

And then you add in the fact that the CapEx is growing, you get a stock that's down 12%.

总体而言，微软并没有陷入困境。

Overall, Microsoft is not in trouble.

这家公司的核心财务状况良好。

The core financials of the company are fine.

你不需要为此恐慌，但投资者是根据相对风险来为公司定价的。

It's not one that you need to panic about, but investors are pricing the companies based on their relative risk.

从结构上看，微软的风险比以前略有增加。

And Microsoft structurally has become slightly more risky than it was previously.

所以我对微软并不感到恐慌。

So I'm not in a panic for Microsoft.

我今天不会出去卖我的股票。

I'm not going out and selling my stock today.

我仍然会继续持有微软股票，我相信它是一家非常好的公司，但它已经进入了一个略有不同的局面。

I'm still gonna continue to hold Microsoft and I believe it's a very good company, but it's moved into a bit of a different scenario.

现在微软是一家需要证明自己的公司。

Now Microsoft is a prove it company.

它需要证明自己能在不依赖OpenAI的情况下实现有机增长。

It's one where they need to prove that they can grow organically outside of OpenAI.

它们需要展示非OpenAI的Azure增长，并证明自己没有如此严重依赖这家公司的循环融资交易。

They need to show non OpenAI Azure growth, and they need to show that they're not so heavily dependent on this one company with these circular financing deals.

微软在未来仍能继续做到这一点。

Microsoft can continue to do that over time.

股价将继续上涨。

The stock will continue to make gains.

现在我们来看另一家发布了财报但情况相反的公司，那就是Meta。

Now moving on to another company that reported earnings but had the opposite scenario, we have Meta.

马克·扎克伯格获得了华尔街的许可，继续大量投资人工智能。

Mark Zuckerberg gets the green light from Wall Street to keep pouring money into AI.

这看起来有点奇怪。

That seems a little strange.

为什么Meta能获得批准，大笔投入人工智能和资本支出，而微软却不行？

How did Meta get the green light to spend so much money on AI and on CapEx when Microsoft couldn't?

嗯，Meta目前有许多积极的方面。

Well, Meta has a lot of good things going.

其中之一是他们的收入增长非常迅速。

One of them is that their revenue is growing incredibly fast.

数据已经公布了。

The numbers are in.

在这份财报发布后，Meta股价如预期般上涨。

Meta stock is trading up after this earnings report as it should.

收入增长了24%，这是一个惊人的增长数字。

The revenue grew by 24%, massive revenue growth number.

此外，Meta现在预计下个季度将实现30%的增长。

To add onto that, Meta is now guiding for 30% growth next quarter.

他们不仅超出了本季度的业绩预期，还预测下个季度的收入增长将进一步加速。

So not only did they crush these earnings, but they're guiding for even faster acceleration revenue next quarter.

我们来看家庭日活跃用户数，这一数字现已增长至35.8亿人。

We have the Family Daily Active People, which continues to grow now to 3,580,000,000 people.

他们已经拥有如此庞大的用户基础。

They already have such a huge user base.

他们其实并不需要再增长这一指标，但该数字仍在持续上升。

They don't really even need to grow that metric, but it's growing anyways.

这又是另一个积极的信号。

It's just another positive thing.

当我们看整体每股收益时，可以发现上个季度曾出现一次异常低值，那是由于一次性税收影响。

When we look at the overall earnings per share, you can see that they had that one time quarter, the previous quarter that was super low because of a one time tax hit.

现在这一影响已经过去，你猜怎么着？Meta的每股收益实现了惊人的增长，证明此前的低谷只是由一次性税收因素造成的。

Well, that's worked its way by and what do you know, Meta's earnings per share grew incredibly fast, proving that this was only because of a one time tax hit.

你可以看到，即使在一次性税收影响的情况下，季度滚动年度数据也开始回升。

And you can see that with the quarterly TTM, even with that one time tax hit, they're starting to work their way back up.

当这一影响逐渐消退时，自然会恢复上来。

This will naturally work its way back up when that moves out of the range.

因此，这也是非常快速的有机每股收益增长。

So this is also incredibly fast organic earnings per share growth.

我做了一些图表来展示Meta的增长速度，这确实非常出色。

I made a few charts here to show how fast Meta is growing, and it is exceptional.

上方的线条显示了公司的营业利润率。

The line above shows the operating margin of the company.

你可以看到它上下波动。

So you can see that going down and up.

你可以看到这影响了公司的盈利能力。

You can see that that affects the profitability of the company.

然后我们有浅蓝色的柱状图，代表收入，这些是较高的柱子。

Then we have the light blue bars, which is the revenue, those are the tall ones.

然后你看到深蓝色的柱状图，代表运营现金流。

And then you have the dark blue bars, which is the operating cash flow.

收入一个季度接一个季度稳步上升。

The revenue's marching up quarter after quarter.

运营现金流也是一个季度接一个季度稳步上升。

The operating cash flow is marching up quarter after quarter.

这家公司正在快速增长。

This company is growing quickly.

现在Meta确实存在资本支出问题。

Now Meta does have a CapEx issue.

就像微软一样，他们每个季度的支出都在不断增加。

Just like Microsoft, they're spending increasing amounts every single quarter.

你可以在这里直观地看到这一点。

You can see that visualized here.

这是大约700亿美元的滚动十二个月资本支出。

This is around $70,000,000,000 in trailing twelve months CapEx spend.

巨额资金被投入到资本支出中，但在这个案例中，投资者给了Meta这样做的理由。

An enormous amount of money is being thrown into CapEx, but in this case, investors are giving Meta an excuse to do this.

他们说，你可以这样做，我们对此感到高兴，因为你同时实现了极快的收入增长和运营现金流增长。

They're saying that you can do this and we're happy about it because you're also getting extremely fast revenue growth and fast operating cash flow growth.

而且资本支出的增长可以很容易地回归到核心业务中。

And because the CapEx growth can be pulled back into the core business very easily.

这种增长并不依赖于单一客户或外部实体，而是公司自身的有机增长。

It's not growth that's dependent on one single client or one outside entity, this is just organic growth from the company.

这里我还想看一下另一张图表，它回溯了Meta过去约十年的表现，你可以看到那条红色的曲线，那条波浪线就是Meta的股价。

Another chart that I thought was interesting to look at here, this goes back about 10 with Meta, and you can see the red line there, that squiggly line is the price of Meta.

然后你可以看到蓝色的柱状图代表每股自由现金流。

And then you can see the free cash flow per share with the blue bars.

注意，股价几乎完美地与每股自由现金流同步变动。

Notice how the price almost perfectly matches the free cash flow per share.

这才是公司内在价值的体现。

That is the intrinsic value indicator of the company.

马克·扎克伯格希望掌握自己的命运。

Mark Zuckerberg wants to own his own destiny.

他希望Meta减少对苹果及其他外部公司未来增长和潜力的依赖。

He wants Meta to be less reliant on externalities like Apple and different companies for their future growth and potential.

他曾公开表示，如果没有苹果施加的各种限制，Meta的利润可能会是今天的两倍。

He's famously said before, that without all the constraints that Apple gives him, Med would likely be twice as profitable than it is today.

这仅仅是苹果对公司造成的影响。

That's just the effects of Apple on the company.

你可以看到，他们正在全力投资于自己的未来。

And you can see that they're investing fully in their own destiny.

他们希望拥有自己的AI模型。

They wanna own their own AI model.

他们希望拥有自己的超级智能。

They wanna have their own super intelligence.

他们希望构建自己的完整生态系统。

They wanna have their whole ecosystem.

他们想要拥有自己的硬件。

They wanna have their own hardware.

Meta正瞄准整个市场。

Meta is going for the entire prize.

一家希望掌控从头到尾完整价值链的公司，将整个生态体系收归己有。

A company that wants to have an entire ecosystem, the full value chain from beginning to end within its entire company.

我从马克·扎克伯格身上看到的东西非常惊人，我对Meta的评价越来越高，我对它的基本面印象深刻。

What I see from Mark Zuckerberg is pretty incredible and I've been more and more impressed with Meta, I'm impressed with the fundamentals.

我过去没有持有Meta的错误，只是对这家公司太过精明了。

The mistake that I've made with not owning Meta is simply trying to be a little too cute with this company.

总是等待更大的回调，总想等到更便宜的价格。

Waiting for too big of dips, always wanting a bit better of a price.

现在回头看，即使Meta当天上涨了10%，它仍然以相对低廉的市盈率交易，自由现金流收益率也相当健康。

When I look at it now, even though Met is up 10% on the day, it's a company that trades at a relatively cheap Ford PE ratio, a decent healthy free cash flow yield.

由于上个季度的税务冲击，过去12个月的市盈率看起来虚高。

The trailing PE looks artificially high because of that tax hit to their previous quarter.

当我们观察这家公司的增长时，预计下一季度的收入增长率将达到30%，这非常迅速。

And when we look at the growth of the company, it's expected to grow at 30% revenue growth next quarter, which is incredibly fast.

当我们看Meta的股价时，确实今天上涨了10%到11%。

When we look at the share price of Meta, it's true that it's up 10%, 11% on the day.

但如果我们看过去一年，Meta只上涨了7%。

But if we look at the past one year, Meta's only up seven percent.

这并不是像ASML或谷歌那样在过去一年里股价翻倍的公司。

This hasn't been some company like an ASML or a Google that's raised up double over the past one year.

所以，Meta仍然是我坚信值得买入的公司。

So Meta is a company that I still believe is a buy.

而且我正在认真考虑买入它。

And it's one that I am strongly considering buying.

我认为，目前这家公司的股价仍然被低估了。

I believe that right now this company is still priced undervalued.

我相信它将继续保持强劲的增长势头。

And I believe that it will continue to have Ford momentum.

这个动机非常重要。

The motive it is significant.

我想不出有什么能真正撼动这家公司。

I can't think of anything that really will take this company and disrupt it.

考虑到他们的安装基础和用户基础，增长潜力巨大。

And the growth potential is massive considering their install base and their user base.

因此，当我审视Meta时，这是我未来几天正在大力考虑买入的股票。

So when I look at Meta, this is one that I'm heavily considering buying over the upcoming days.

接下来我们来看一只表现非常出色的股票，那就是ASML。

Now next we get to a stock that's really done great, which is ASML.

这只股票今年至今已经上涨了约25%。

This one is up around 25% just year to date.

我们看过去六个月，它上涨了100%。

We look over the past six months, it's up 100%.

所以所有买入这只股票的人都对它感到满意。

So everybody that's bought this stock is happy with it.

这是一只表现非常好的股票，其表现完全配得上这样的成绩。

It's been a great one, and the performance justifies it.

我假设ASML会公布出色的财报，而事实确实如此。

Now I assume the ASML would report great earnings, which they did.

他们在所有关键方面都超出了预期。

They beat on all the important aspects of it.

尽管像这种在财报前大幅上涨的公司，股价在财报后下跌2%到3%是正常的，但它仍然稳住了阵脚。

And the stock still traded down two to 3% as you'd expect with a company that ran up this much into earnings, but it's still holding its own.

这使得那些已经获得巨大收益的投资者能够保住他们的利润。

It's making it so that investors that really had all those great gains are keeping those gains.

即使今天市场一片惨绿，ASML仍上涨了1.6%。

Even today during a blood red day, ASML is in the green by 1.6%.

当我们审视这家公司的状况时，其数据表现非常出色。

When we look at what's going on with this company, the numbers look great.

其收入每个季度增长15%到16%。

The revenue's growing 15 to 16% per quarter.

净利润正在上升。

The net income is climbing.

每股收益正在上升。

The earnings per share is climbing.

这家公司势头正盛。

The company is on a roll.

不仅如此，他们还在积极回购股票。

Not only that, but they're also buying back shares aggressively.

他们表示将进行更多的股票回购。

They say they're gonna be doing even more buybacks.

由于ASML是一家盈利极高的公司，其收入远超员工成本，包括任何股票形式的薪酬，它极其盈利，因此能将大量资金直接用于回购。

Since ASML is a company that makes so much money, even above their employee costs, including any stock based compensation, They're so incredibly profitable, they can pour a lot of that money directly back into buybacks.

因此，无论股价下跌还是平稳运行，他们始终在回购股票，从而推动每股收益和每股自由现金流更快增长。

And so anytime the stock drops down or even when it's just going along, they're always buying back shares, making it so their earnings per share and free cash flow per share grow faster.

财报公布后，股价最初上涨了10%。

The stock initially popped 10% after earnings were reported.

但管理层非常保守，他们提出了警示，表示尽管人工智能需求非常强劲，他们仍希望适度降低人们的预期。

But management like they are is very conservative, and they gave caution, and they said that even though the AI demand's very strong, they always wanna kind of dampen people's expectations.

因此，在财报电话会议后，股价略有回落。

So the stock came down a little bit after the earnings call.

但无论如何，这家公司表现极其出色。

But in any case, this company is doing incredibly well.

今年它已经是一个大赢家，我仍然认为它是一家拥有巨大增长潜力的垄断企业。

It's already a big winner this year, and I still see it as a monopoly that has a lot of growth ahead of it.

对我而言，我仍然维持对该股的持有立场。

For me, this one still maintains a hold position.

今天另一家重要公司发布了财报，那就是我仅次于谷歌的最大持仓之一——万事达卡。

Now another important company that reported earnings today, and one of my largest positions right underneath Google is Mastercard.

我最近在这家公司投入了大量资金，但由于有关利率上限的讨论，股价一度有所波动，导致一些投资者情绪降温，但万事达卡刚刚公布的业绩却是一次非常出色的超预期表现。

I've recently invested a lot of money into this company and it's been wavering a little bit because of all the talk of capping interest rates That's caused some investors to become a little bit soured, but Mastercard just reported their numbers, and this was a very high quality beat.

从各个方面来看，这都是一次极为出色的超预期表现。

Across the spectrum, this was an incredible beat.

财报发布后，今天上涨了3.6%。

It's up 3.6% today after the report.

当我们看这些数据时，我想强调几点。

And when we look at the numbers here, I just wanna highlight a couple things.

首先，从公司收入增长来看，总收入增长了18%，按货币中性计算则为15%。

When we look at, first of all, the revenue growth of the company, revenue grew by 18% overall or 15% on a currency neutral basis.

这一收入增长来自公司两个不同的业务板块。

Now this revenue growth is between two different parts of the company.

一个是增值服务，也就是公司非网络支付部分，增长了24%。

It's between the value added services, which is like their non network payment part of the company, that grew by 24%.

另一个是网络业务部分，增长了12%。

Then you have the network part that grew by 12%.

核心业务增长12%，这是大多数人熟知的万事达卡业务，而增值服务则增长了24%。

So 12% for their core business, that's the part that most people know about Mastercard, and then 24% for the value added services.

两者合计，整体增长达到18%。

That equates to 18% overall.

这表明万事达正在将其业务从单纯的支付网络中脱离出来。

What this shows is that Mastercard is decoupling its business from just a payment network.

总体而言，万事达持续发展其增值服务，正是这家公司所需要的。

Overall, this development for Mastercard continuing to grow their value added services is exactly what this company needs to do.

万事达更多地转向服务而非仅依赖支付通道的另一个好处是，这进一步使其免受政府干预。

Another added benefit of Mastercard moving more towards services instead of just payment rails is that it further insulates them from government interference.

政府可以介入并制定关于支付费率的法规，但他们很难对万事达所销售的各种服务做同样的事情。

The government can come in and make regulations about take rates and things with payments, but they can't really do the same thing for all the various services that Mastercard sells.

因此，他们知道自己正在向一种更无须许可的收入模式转型。

So they know they're moving towards a more permissionless type of revenue.

在这种模式下，他们可以继续增长和扩张，而较少受到政府干预。

One where they can continue to grow and expand without as much government interference.

而那个建立在支付通道上的旧业务，政府确实会插手，但万事达已经将它抛在身后了。

And that old business, the one that's built on the rails, well, the government will meander in that, but they're already leaving that in the dust.

当我审视万事达时，我很欣赏这一转型。

When I look at Mastercard, I like the transition.

我喜欢它的增长。

I like the growth.

我喜欢它的盈利能力。

I like the profitability.

这是一家盈利能力极强的公司。

This is a company that is so wildly profitable.

我喜欢经常做报告，我认为万事达和维萨都表现得很好。

I like to report a lot, and I think that Mastercard and Visa are doing great.

现在，我们终于来到了大家最关心的话题——特斯拉。

Now finally, we get to everyone's favorite, which of course is Tesla.

今天它的股价下跌了百分之二点五。

It's down two and a half percent today.

股价是4.20美元。

The stock price is $4.20.

当我们审视特斯拉时，这家公司正在发生很多事情，而这通常都在意料之中。

Now when we look at Tesla, there's a lot going on with this company, and it's usually what you would expect.

当我们看原始数据时，情况并不理想。

When we look at the raw numbers, they don't look great.

收入同比有所下降。

Revenue is down year over year.

特斯拉的汽车业务下降了10%。

The automotive section of Tesla is down 10%.

能源板块是亮点，因此特斯拉正逐渐成为一个能源公司，其服务业务也在增长。

The energy section is the bright spot, so Tesla's becoming more of an energy company, and their services are also growing.

简而言之，他们卖出的汽车更少了，但在能源和服务上赚的钱却更多了。

So basically, they're selling fewer cars, but they're also making more money on energy and services.

当我们看交付的车辆数量时，可以将数据平滑处理，这样能更清晰地反映趋势。

When we look at the vehicles delivered, we can smooth this out over time, this gives a clearer picture.

特斯拉交付的车辆越来越少。

Tesla is delivering fewer and fewer vehicles.

自由现金流下降了30%。

The free cash flow is down 30%.

我们来看每股收益，当然也下降了。

We have the earnings per share, which of course are down as well.

这些数字整体上看都非常糟糕。

These numbers of course look terrible across the board.

这些数据简直灾难性。

They are disastrous numbers.

事实上，这表明特斯拉已经不再是汽车公司，因为它在汽车业务上被彻底击败了。

And in fact, it shows that Tesla is no longer a car company because it's being trounced as a car company.

如果没有税收优惠，特斯拉每售出一辆车的利润就更低了。

Without the tax incentive, Tesla's making less money per vehicle sold.

因此，他们正试图销售更少的车辆，因为利润更低了。

And so they're trying to sell even fewer vehicles because they're less profitable.

他们显然已经达到了可能的销售交付上限，因为现在他们正面临来自中国的激烈竞争。

They've also clearly hit the max sales delivery numbers that they possibly can because now they're dealing with intense competition with China.

特斯拉不再是在电动车领域毫无对手的唯一竞争者，现在出现了非常强劲的竞争对手。

No longer is Tesla the one competing without any real competitors in the EV space, there's now very viable competition.