有史以来最大的损失

欢迎各位回来。

Welcome back everyone.

今天在约瑟夫·卡尔森节目中，我们将回顾近年来市场最糟糕的一天之一。

Today on the Joseph Carlson show, we're gonna be going over one of the worst days that we've had in the market in years.

昨天，软件公司股价暴跌。

Yesterday, software companies crashed.

它们遭到重创。

They got pummeled.

就连非软件公司，比如标普全球和穆迪这样的大型金融巨头，也遭受了沉重打击。

And even non software companies, ones like S and P Global and Moody's, the big wide moat financial companies, they got crushed as well.

这一切都归结于一件事：Anthropic。

And it all comes down to one thing, Anthropic.

Anthropic和人工智能的威胁正在入侵全球市场。

Anthropic and the threat of AI is now invading the global markets.

我们将全面探讨这个话题。

We're gonna be going over the whole subject.

我们将查看我的投资组合，以及我昨天损失的6万美元。

We'll be looking at my portfolio and the $60,000 that I lost yesterday.

我们将讨论我未来的计划。

We'll be going over my plans in the future.

在这种环境下，哪些决策才是最好的？

What are the best decisions to make in this type of environment?

当然，我们还有很多其他新闻要跟进。

Now, of course, we have a lot of other news to get to.

例如，优步刚刚公布了财报，股价在公布后下跌了。

For example, we have Uber that just reported their earnings, the stock is down after reporting.

谷歌也公布了财报，是否保留谷歌股票还是卖出获利，这是我们将会讨论的问题。

We have Google reporting their earnings, The decision of whether or not to keep your shares or sell out of Google and take some gains, that's one that we'll be discussing.

此外，本周的失败案例是奈飞的联合CEO特德·萨兰多斯出席国会听证会。

And we also have the fail of the week, which in this case is Netflix's Ted Sarandos, the co CEO appearing before Congress.

国会议员向企业高管提问的方式总是很特别。

Congress has a way of asking business leaders interesting questions.

例如，泰德·克鲁兹问Netflix的首席执行官泰德·萨兰多斯：我们是不是站在被窃取的土地上？

For example, Ted Cruz asks Ted Sarandos, the Netflix CEO, are we on stolen land?

确实如此。

That's true.

他真的问了他这个问题。

He really asked him that.

我们将在‘本周失败’环节中详细分析整个对话。

We'll be going over the whole exchange in the fail of the week.

今天我们要先回顾一下昨天发生的事情。

Now we start things off today by looking at what happened yesterday.

这是近年来高增长行业中最显著的一次抛售之一。

It was one of the most significant sell offs, especially in a high growth industry that we've seen for some time.

纵观历史，软件公司，尤其是拥有稳定订阅收入模式的公司，因其商业模式的可预测性、可靠性和定价能力，通常享有更高的估值倍数。

Throughout history, software companies, especially ones that have that nice business model of recurring revenue, the subscription software companies, they've held a higher multiple because of the predictability and reliability and pricing power inherent in their business model.

它们拥有所谓的‘粘性’业务。

They have what's called sticky businesses.

这意味着当人们注册他们的软件并将其融入业务时，这些软件会与他们的工作流程交织在一起，嵌入到他们的流程中，因此很难转向其他应用。

Meaning that when people sign up for their software and they incorporate it in their business, it gets intertwined in their workflows, embedded in their processes, therefore making it difficult to move away from those applications.

这些应用还经常更新，不断提供新功能，并且自然增长。

Those applications also update frequently, they offer more features and they grow organically.

现在，这些软件公司通常因为高利润率、可预测性和可靠性而被赋予更高的估值倍数。

Now these companies, these software companies typically again have traded at higher multiples because of the high margins predictability and reliability.

而昨天发生的事情，是Anthropic长期以来所遵循趋势的升级，即开发企业对企业工具。

Now what happened yesterday is an escalation and a trend that Anthropic has been on for some time, and that is building out business to business tools.

Anthropic与其他大多数AI模型或AI公司有所不同。

See Anthropic is a bit different than most other AI models or AI companies.

它们大多专注于终端用户，也就是消费者。

Most of them are focused on the end user, the consumer.

你有OpenAI、Gemini、XAI，人们会在他们的手机上下载这些应用。

You have OpenAI, you have Gemini, you have XAI where people are downloading them on their mobile phones.

但Anthropic却表示，他们不会那么专注于这一块。

But then you have Anthropic, which said that we're not gonna focus so much on that.

我们将直接面向企业。

We're gonna go straight for corporations.

我们将专注于商业实用性。

We're gonna go for business utility.

就在一周前，Anthropic推出了适用于Microsoft Excel的AI插件。

Just a week or so ago, Anthropic announced an AI plugin for Microsoft Excel.

这是一个高度先进的插件。

One that was highly advanced.

它仅通过文本提示就能完成复杂的任务。

It could do complex tasks just with text prompts.

它能够创建电子表格和DCF公式。

It could build out spreadsheets and DCF formulas.

它能完成财务分析师在Excel中能做的许多工作。

It can do lots of things that financial analysts can do right in Excel.

它还能完成数据分析师能做的工作。

It can also do things that data analysts can do.

它能够从Excel表格中的内容中提取洞察并保持上下文，而无需任何Excel编程知识。

It can draw insights and retain context from what's going on in the Excel spreadsheet with no knowledge of Excel coding.

Anthropic开发了这个插件，它的表现优于微软的Copilot。

Anthropic built that plugin and it was better than Microsoft's Copilot.

所以一周前我们就已经初见端倪。

So we had a hint of it a week ago.

Anthropic正在为不同领域开发高度专业化、针对特定工作类型的工具。

Anthropic was building out tools on different verticals that are highly specialized for different types of jobs.

昨天，Anthropic发布了一款专门针对专业分析、财务和合规工作的AI自动化工具。

Yesterday, Anthropic announced an AI automation tool specifically targeting professional analysis and financial and compliance work.

这属于法律工作。

This is legal work.

现在，他们正从Excel表格扩展到瞄准整个财务合规和法律团队的领域。

So now they're moving from Excel spreadsheets to targeting entire verticals of financial compliance and legal teams.

这个插件据说能完成财务分析师、法律团队和合规团队的繁琐工作，将相关成本降至近乎为零。

This plugin can supposedly do the grunt work that financial analysts and legal teams and compliance teams do, making that cost go down to essentially zero.

这意味着那些依靠法律合规咨询、金融分析师信息等业务赚取大量利润的公司受到了严重冲击。

Meaning that companies that make a lot of money with legal compliance consulting, financial analyst information, all of that type of stuff went down hard.

其中包括标普全球和穆迪。

And that included S and P Global and Moody's.

据《华尔街日报》报道，人工智能威胁到了华尔街的摇钱树——金融和法律数据。

From the Wall Street Journal, AI threatens Wall Street's cash cow, financial and legal data.

市场正在预期，Anthropic 将能够免费抓取并整合金融、法律和市场数据。

The market's pricing in, the Anthropic is essentially going to be able to scrape and synthesize financial, legal data, and market data for free.

而像标普全球这样的公司，其市场情报业务，以及穆迪的整个风险分析部门，这些大量工作都将被自动化，或至少成本大幅降低，导致标普全球等公司不再拥有以往那样的定价权和增长路径。

And that a huge bulk of the work that companies like S and P Global with their market intelligence and Moody's, with their entire risk analysis part of the company, all of that's gonna be automated or at least dramatically cheaper, making it so that companies like S and P Global don't have the pricing power and the growth path that they once had.

Anthropic 揭露了我们所知的某些护城河最宽的公司——标普全球和穆迪——所存在的潜在脆弱性。

Anthropic exposed a perceived vulnerability in some of the widest moat companies that we've ever heard of, S and P Global and Moody's.

这些公司被视为双头垄断或垄断型企业，因其处理的数据极其复杂，涉及监管、金融和法律领域，一直被认为无法被撼动。

These are looked at as the duopolies, the monopolistic companies, the ones that really can't be touched because they deal with such complex data and regulatory, financial, legal.

这类工作正是人工智能无法胜任的。

That's the type of stuff that AI is not gonna be able to do.

Anthropic表示：不，我们也能做到这一点。

Well, Anthropic saying, no, we can do that too.

这种表态给这些公司带来了巨大压力，但也产生了强烈的连锁反应。

That messaging put a lot of pressure on these companies, but it also had a strong waterfall effect.

一旦市场意识到这类公司可能受到AI的影响，一切都不再有保障了。

Once the market realized that these type of companies can be impacted by AI, it was all bets off.

现在每一家公司都受到严格审视，人们都在评估Anthropic是否能够影响其商业模式。

Every single company is now being scrutinized intensely of whether or not Anthropic will be able to impact their business model.

是否能够以便宜得多或快得多的方式完成同样的事情。

Whether it will be able to do essentially the same thing for a lot cheaper or faster.

市场迅速行动，抛售所有可能受到AI颠覆影响的公司股票。

The market acted swiftly to sell off potentially any company that had any potential exposure to AI disruption.

昨天我们就看到了大量这样的情况。

And we saw a lot of that yesterday.

我来重点提一下我们最常讨论的一些公司，以说明它们在过去五天里的跌幅有多严重。

I'll highlight some of the companies that we talk about the most here, just to highlight how much they're down over the past five days.

过去五天里跌幅最大的是艾奎法克斯公司。

The biggest one that's down the most over the past five days is Equifax.

艾奎法克斯昨天遭遇了大规模抛售，我很幸运在抛售前就卖掉了它。

Equifax had a massive sell off yesterday, which I was very fortunate to have sold it before that sell off.

所以这算是运气不错。

So that was some lucky timing.

我并没有预料到这种情况会发生。

I did not anticipate this happening.

这并不是我提前预判它会下跌并完美把握了时机。

So this wasn't me thinking in advance that it's gonna sell down and then timing it perfectly.

有时候，运气好比能力强更有利。

In some cases it's better to be lucky than good.

这正是其中一个例子。

This is one of those cases.

艾奎法克斯和许多依赖数据的金融公司一样，在过去五天里遭受重创，股价下跌了14%。

Equifax, like many of the financial companies reliant on data was crushed over the past five days, falling 14%.

接下来是标普全球。

Then we have S and P Global.

这是一个重仓股，我仍然持有这个仓位。

Now this is a large holding and I still maintain my position in this one.

它下跌了13%。

It is down 13%.

过去五天，多邻国也下跌了13%。

We have Duolingo over the past five days, this one's down 13% as well.

市场正在预期多邻国将面临重大冲击。

The market's pricing in big disruption with Duolingo.

我对这个看法持不同意见。

This is one that I disagree with.

我认为这家公司的状况不会像市场预期的那么糟糕。

I don't think it's gonna be quite as bad for this company as what's being priced in.

我们还有益博睿。

We also have Intuit.

我一直担心这家公司会被当作SaaS公司来对待。

This is one that I've been concerned for some time that it would get the SaaS treatment.

它会被归入其他软件公司一类，像Salesforce或Adobe那样被估值。

That it would be bucketed in with the rest of software companies and get evaluated like it's a Salesforce or Adobe.

Intuit下跌了惊人的12%，这是多年来最低的估值。

Intuit's down an astounding 12%, it's the lowest valuation it's been in years.

接着是FDS，也就是FactSet，另一家数据供应商，这只股票也下跌了12%。

Then we have FDS, which is FactSet, that's another data supplier company, that one's down 12%.

FICO像许多这类股票一样，最近表现惨淡，也下跌了12%。

FICO, like many of these stocks has been a disaster recently, it's down 12% as well.

甚至连Spotify也下跌了11%。

We even have Spotify, which Spotify is down 11%.

Spotify正在被AI颠覆吗？

Is Spotify getting disrupted by AI?

我们稍后会讨论。

Well, we'll discuss.

我们有穆迪，这个跌幅较小，下跌了10%。

We have Moody's, this one was hit to a lesser extent, it's down 10%.

我们有优步，这个也下跌了7%。

We have Uber, this one's also down 7%.

还有MSCI，这个也下跌了7%。

And then we have MSCI, this one's down 7% as well.

类似的情况还有很多。

And there's a lot more where that came from.

昨天许多公司遭受重创，今天还在继续下跌。

So many companies were hit hard yesterday, and they're still getting hit hard today.

如果我们看看我的投资组合，这可以说是近年来单日最严重的亏损之一。

We If look at my portfolio, this is one of the worst losses I'd say in the past few years in a single day.

这是一次迅速的抛售。

It was a quick sell off.

我在一天之内，两个投资组合总共损失了大约6万美元。

I lost around between both portfolios around $60,000 in one day.

所以大约占投资组合的5%。

So around 5% of the portfolio.

当我们查看这些类别时，受到重创的是金融板块。

When we look at the categories here, the ones that were hit really hard is the financial category.

这些是DevCantasaria的持仓。

These are the DevCantasaria holdings.

标普全球、穆迪和Intuit都遭受了严重打击，每只股票都下跌了约10%。

S and P Global, Moody's and Intuit were hit very hard, each one of them down around 10%.

我们来看万事达卡，幸运的是，它今天是上涨的。

We look at Mastercard and luckily, fortunately, this is one of the ones that was actually green on the day.

所以投资者对万事达卡并不担心，我认为他们也不应该担心。

So investors are not worried about Mastercard, which I don't think they should be.

Intuit的股价下跌得非常快。

Intuit stock has declined so fast.

我认为它已经进入了一个不错的投资机会区间。

I believe it's getting into the territory of being a good opportunity.

这只股票增长得非常快。

This is one that is growing very quickly.

很难相信AI会取代TurboTax，让所有人都用AI来报税。

It's difficult to believe that AI will replicate TurboTax and people will just do it with AI.

大多数人希望确保自己的税务申报准确无误，而不是出现幻觉。

Most people wanna make sure that their taxes are done correctly and not have hallucinations.

因此，我认为Intuit已经与许多客户建立了历史和信任。

So Intuit's one that I think has built up a history and trust with a lot of customers.

在我看来，它未来很可能会表现良好。

In my opinion, it will be one that will likely do well in the future.

我继续持有这只股票。

This one I continue to hold.

在科技板块中，我把大部分关注都放在了这里。

In the tech categories where I put most of my focus.

这里我们谈到一些大型科技公司，再加上ASML。

This is where we get into some of the big tech companies plus ASML.

我仍然持有我全部的谷歌股票。

I still own my full share in Google.

我还没有卖出任何股份，而且在本次财报公布前，我依然继续持有全部股票。

I haven't sold any and I still continue to hold all of it going into this earnings.

我认为，谷歌今天的财报风险比以前大得多，主要是因为估值过高。

I believe that Google's earnings today are much more risky than they were previously just because of valuation.

投资者在财报公布前变得有些不安和焦虑。

Investors are getting a little antsy, a little anxious going into these earnings.

股价已经下跌了3%，但到目前为止，谷歌实际上并没有任何问题。

The stock is down 3% when there's so far really nothing wrong with Google.

但当我们审视这家公司时，它的市盈率是34倍。

But when we look at this company, it's trading at a 34 PE.

这是谷歌历史上最高的远期市盈率之一。

This is one of the highest PE ratios on a forward basis that Google's traded at.

它通常不会以这样的价格交易。

It's typically not priced like this.

因此，有理由更加谨慎，财报发布后出现抛售的可能性比之前更高。

So there is reason to be a bit more cautious and there's a higher likelihood of a post earnings sell off than before.

让我继续持有谷歌的原因是我相信这家公司长期来看会大获成功。

What keeps me in Google is I just believe this company is a big winner long term.

别以为他们会因为人工智能而被颠覆。

Don't think they're gonna get disrupted by AI.

他们拥有太多用户、太多工具、太多独特而优秀的资产。

They have too many users, they have too many tools, they have too many unique great assets.

谷歌云很棒，Waymo很棒，YouTube也很棒。

Google Cloud is great, Waymo is great, YouTube is great.

你拥有所有这些业务资产，他们正在整合Gemini，并拥有自己的领先模型。

You have all the business assets where they're infusing Gemini, they have their own leading model.

我认为这一点将随着时间的推移持续表现良好。

And I think that this one will just continue to do well over time.

短期内可能因估值担忧而下跌，但谷歌长期来看依然是赢家。

It may sell off in the short term because of valuation concerns, but Google remains a winner long term.

现在我最新建立的仓位是Meta，我正在迅速加仓。

Now the newest position, one that I'm building up extremely fast is Meta.

我已经在这家公司投入了大量资金。

I've been putting a lot of money into this company.

这个仓位目前已经达到118,000美元。

It's already a $118,000 position.

我之所以如此迅速地建仓，是因为我对它的未来越来越有信心，尤其是考虑到当前市场的状况。

This is one that I've been building up so quickly because I feel more and more confident about the future of it, especially given the position of the market right now.

我认为Meta完全不受AI风险的影响。

Meta is a company that I feel is entirely insulated from AI risks.

这是一家掌控自己模型的公司。

It is a company where they control their own model.

他们拥有自己的基础设施。

They have their own infrastructure.

他们拥有自己的超级计算能力。

They have their own supercomputing.

Meta所拥有的产品和平台不会被人工智能所颠覆。

The products that Meta owns and the platforms they own are not gonna be disrupted by artificial intelligence.

它们没有相同类型的风险。

They don't have the same type of risks.

尽管我认为目前它完全规避了风险，但这家公司也在快速增长，并且估值较低。

And while I believe that it's highly insulated from the risks right now, it's also a company that's growing incredibly fast and has a low valuation.

在我看来，这是个值得投资的地方。

To me it is a place to put money.

这是一个买入机会。

This is a buy.

所以我正在大量买入。

So I'm buying it substantially.

这是否意味着股票明天就会上涨？

Does that mean the stock will go up tomorrow?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我不能保证任何事情，但我现在对这只股票非常有信心。

I can't guarantee anything, but this is one that I feel very strongly about right now.

你可以从我的仓位规模以及今晚我还要再投入1万美元来看出这一点。

You can see that with how big the position is, and the fact that I have another $10,000 going into this one this evening.

我现在筹集资金的来源，是出售Salesforce所得。

Now, of where I raised money for this is with the sale of Salesforce.

我今天早上卖掉了这家公司。

I sold the company this morning.

过去一年，我一直都在质疑自己是否应该持有Salesforce。

Salesforce is a company that I have been questioning whether I should own for the past year.

几周前，我就说过我要卖掉这家公司。

A couple of weeks ago, I said I was gonna sell the company.

所以这并不令人意外。

So this is no surprise.

我早就透露过，频繁地谈论过这件事。

I've already signaled it, talked about it frequently.

我说过，出售所得将用于投资Meta。

And I said that the sale proceeds would go towards Meta.

资金确实全部投向了那里。

That's exactly where they went.

Salesforce是一家你可以整天争论AI是否会毁掉它的公司。

Salesforce is a company where you can debate all day long whether or not AI will kill the company or not.

但即使抛开对AI的担忧，完全不考虑这一点，我仍然认为Meta是一家更好的公司。

But even putting aside the AI fears, even if we just leave that completely out of the equation, I still believe that Meta is just a better company.

无论AI前景如何，无论市场发生什么变化。

Regardless of AI fares, regardless of what's going on with the market.

当我从估值、护城河和增长潜力等多个角度审视Meta时，总体而言，它对我来说是一个更优质的资产。

When I look at Meta both from a valuation perspective, from a moat perspective, from a growth potential perspective, Meta seems like a superior asset to me overall.

这最终是我决定出售它的原因。

That's ultimately the reason that I decided to sell it.

因此，我认为Meta在质量上优于Equifax和Salesforce。

So I believe Meta is a quality upgrade over both Equifax and Salesforce.

在进行这种转型并将这两家公司的资产整合到一起后，我认为我的投资组合如今变得更强大了。

In doing this type of transformation and putting both of those companies assets into this one, I believe that overall my portfolio is stronger today.

我们还持有ASML，它正随市场整体下跌。

We also have ASML, which is selling down with the rest of the market.

这没什么道理，但ASML确实下跌了。

Doesn't make much sense, but ASML is down.

然后我们还有微软。

And then we have Microsoft.

这是我快要开始买入的另一只股票。

This is another one that I'm getting very close to starting to buy.

我认为微软的股价已经跌到了具有良好价值的区间。

I believe that Microsoft is traded down to the range of being good value.

让我们花点时间看一下故事基金。

Let's go ahead and take a look at the Story Fund for a minute.

这只基金的收益达到了51.3万美元。

This one's $513,000 in gains.

如果我们看一下故事基金的持仓，亚马逊表现良好。

If we go through the holdings in the Story Fund, Amazon has been fine.

奈飞实际上表现稳健，这只股票没问题。

Netflix has actually held up well, that one's been fine.

我们有谷歌，投资者对即将公布的财报有些不安，但总体而言这只股票表现不错。

We have Google which investors are a little bit antsy about with the the upcoming earnings, but that one overall has been fine.

然后我们有微软。

Then we have Microsoft.

这只股票在抛售中受到冲击，因为微软在某种程度上是一家软件公司。

This is one that actually got hit in the sell off because Microsoft is a software company to some degree.

我们有标普全球，投资者对这只股票感到担忧。

We have S and P Global, again investors are scared about that one.

然后是多邻国。

And then Duolingo.

这只股票是投资者持续抛售的对象。

This is one where investors continue to liquidate this company.

如果我们看市值，它目前是55亿美元，但这还没有计入他们持有的10亿美元现金。

If we look at the market cap, it's at a $5,500,000,000 market cap, but that also doesn't factor in that they have $1,000,000,000 in cash.

如果扣除现金，这家公司的市值为45亿美元，每年却能产生数亿美元的自由现金流。

If you were to net that out, this is a company trading at a $4,500,000,000 market cap that's doing hundreds of millions of dollars per year in free cash flow.

今天的自由现金流收益率为6.45%。

The free cash flow yield today is 6.45%.

你很少能看到一家像多邻国这样快速增长的公司，其自由现金流收益率却如此之高。

You don't often see a company growing as fast as Duolingo that's trading at this high of a free cash flow yield.

投资者完全不想碰这家公司。

Investors want nothing to do with this company.

它被和所有其他AI相关的担忧一起抛售了。

It's being thrown out with all the other AI concerns.

我们还看到大量空头在从这家公司获利了结。

We also have a lot of shorts cashing in on this company.

空头持仓比例现在已经远超20%。

The short interest is now way above 20%.

所以空头正在大量涌入，这当然造成了更激进的抛售。

So shorts are piling in, which of course creates more aggressive selling.

也许我只是固执，但我仍然持有多邻国的股票，甚至可能继续买入。

Maybe I'm just stubborn, but I'm holding Duolingo and I may buy more of it.

我只是喜欢这只股票，喜欢这家公司，我认为它非常盈利。

I just like the stock, I like the company, I think it's very profitable.

随着时间的推移，我们将看到这个商业模式能否生存下来。

And over time we'll see if the business model survives.

但目前我相信，多邻国远不止是一个学习应用。

But right now I believe that Duolingo is a lot more than just a learning app.

它是一个非常成熟的产品，用户体验非常友好。

It's a very refined one, it's very user friendly.

它能给用户带来成瘾性，让他们每天都想使用，而这一点很难实现。

It's something that it creates an addictiveness in users, they wanna use it every single day, and that's difficult to accomplish.

所以这对整个投资组合造成了损害。

So there's the damage to the portfolio overall.

跌幅大约在百分之五，这是一个不小的打击，一天内损失5%是很多的，但这笔钱将来会复利回来。

It was around a five percent hit, which is a big hit, 5% is a lot to lose in a single day, but that money will be compounded back.

这些公司都在增长，我的投资组合中拥有令人难以置信的优质资产。

These companies are growing, I have incredible assets in the portfolio.

我有信心，未来它的涨幅将远远超过5%。

It's gonna go far above 5% in the future that I'm confident of.

现在换个话题，我想谈一谈并提醒大家一个现象：我注意到许多投资者倾向于只看那些股价下跌的公司，然后开始买入跌幅最大的那些。

Now switching gears a little bit, one of the things that I wanted to comment on and warn about was this tendency that I see from many investors to simply look at all the companies that are selling off and start to just buy the ones that are selling off the most.

他们买入的是交易价格下跌最厉害或估值最低的公司。

They're buying the ones that are trading down the most or have the lowest valuation.

虽然表面上看，买入被超卖或市场恐慌抛售的公司似乎是明智的投资，但我认为事情比这更复杂。

While that seems like good investing on the surface to buy companies that are oversold or ones that the market's panicking on, I believe things are a bit more complex than that.

投资者常常认为耐心是一种吸引人的特质。

One of the things that investors often look at as an attractive trait is the ability to be patient.

拥有长期持有的能力。

The ability to have duration.

持续性意味着你不需要卖出股价下跌的公司。

Duration means that you don't need to sell companies that are going down in stock price.

如果市场给出更低的报价，你不必接受。

If the market gives you a lower bid, you don't have to take it.

你只需坚持持有即可。

You can simply just hang on.

你可以等待一段时间，让盈利增长，或让情况发生变化，从而使市场给出更高的报价。

You can wait over time for earnings to grow or for things to change and the market to give you a higher bid.

这就是持续性。

That is duration.

它是我们作为投资者拥有的最佳优势之一。

And it's one of the best things that we have as investors.

但持续性虽然是一项巨大优势，也只有在你持有的公司拥有能够生存并繁荣的商业模式时，才能保护你。

But duration, even though it's a great benefit, also only protects you if the company that you own has a business model that will survive and thrive.

只有当商业模式能够生存下来，持续性才会对你有利。

Duration only benefits you if the business model survives.

等待和耐心只有在商业模式持续繁荣时，才能真正让你作为投资者受益。

Waiting and being patient only benefits you the investor if the business model is thriving.

如果你不小心，耐心可能会变成否认现实。

Patience, if you're not careful, can turn to denial.

如果你的投资组合中有一些公司日复一日地下跌，因为其商业模式正在衰退，商业模式正在被侵蚀。

If you have companies in your portfolio that are selling down day after day because the business model is in decay, The business model is being eroded.

人工智能正从各个方向攻击它，对你们公司的价值主张造成实质性损害。

AI is attacking it from all fronts and making real damage to the value proposition of your company.

仅仅因为持有不动就不是好的投资行为。

That is not good investing to simply hold on.

那是否认现实。

That is denial.

有些投资者觉得自己被困在一家公司里，因为他们之前就持有，现在处于亏损状态，陷入了沉没成本谬误，也就是说，他们越等越久，希望有人出更高的价格，好让他们脱身，这就是否认现实。

Investors that may feel like they're trapped in a company because they've been in it before, they're in the red on it, they have sunken cost fallacy, meaning they're waiting longer and longer hoping that someone will give them a higher bid so they can just exit out of it, that is denial.

我看到很多投资者都陷入这种否认之中。

And I see many investors get stuck in this denial.

如果不小心，持有时间和耐心会迅速变成否认。

If you're not careful, duration and patience can quickly turn into denial.

他们通过商业模式来判断这一点。

And the way they determine that is by the business model.

如果你看看不同的行业，比如有线电视。

If you look at different industries, like cable TV.

有线电视曾经是一个利润丰厚的行业，拥有高利润率、持续性业务，客户每年都会付费。

Cable TV used to be an incredible industry with high margins, residual business, customers that paid every single year.

它是世界上最具盈利能力的大公司之一。

It's one of the most profitable big companies in the world.

这些曾是我们时代的巨头。

These were the giants of our time.

但有线电视被一种名为流媒体的更先进技术所颠覆。

But cable TV was disrupted by a superior technology called streaming.

如今，有线电视的估值已跌至历史最低水平。

Now cable television trades at record low valuations.

你可以以非常便宜的价格购买这些公司，任何人都可以随时买入。

Companies that you can buy for very cheap, anybody can buy them anytime.

但它们价格低廉是因为商业模式已经衰退。

But they trade for cheap because the business models have been decayed.

它们已经被侵蚀了。

They've been eroded.

作为耐心的投资者投资有线电视并没有带来回报。

Being a patient investor in cable television has not paid off.

这种耐心积累的是亏损，并让你错失了将资本投入那些蓬勃发展的商业模式的机会。

The patience has accumulated losses and has given up opportunity to put the capital into business models that are thriving and growing.

因此，在购买以座位为基础、正在打折的SaaS公司之前，我要提醒你谨慎一点，因为AI正让机器人化地完成座位基础任务变得更容易，至少要审视一下这种商业模式面临的威胁。

So I'd give a word of caution before buying SaaS companies that are at a discount that are seat based when AI is making it easier to do seat based things robotically, to at least look at the threats to the business model itself.

要想长期获得非凡的收益，你需要商业模式能够生存并繁荣。

For you to have the extraordinary gains over time, you need the business model to survive and thrive.

如果商业模式无法生存，那么你以什么估值买入这家公司都无关紧要。

The business model does not survive, it doesn't matter what valuation you're buying the company at.

PayPal的投资者已经以惨痛的方式明白了这一点。

PayPal investors have learned that the hard way.

你可能会无限期地被困在一家公司里。

You can get stuck in a company indefinitely.

沉没成本会让你待在那里的时间远超你应待的时间。

Sunken costs can keep you there for much longer than you deserve to be there.

所以要关注商业模式。

So look for the business model.

当我审视这一点时，我会寻找那些我认为目前——至少根据我的判断——AI无法触及的公司。

When I look at this, I look at companies that I believe right now, at least for my judgment, AI can't touch.

其中之一就是亚马逊。

One of them is Amazon.

亚马逊本质上是一场物理基础设施的博弈。

Amazon ultimately is a physical infrastructure play.

这是一家非常不受AI影响的公司。

It's a company that is very insulated from AI.

亚马逊的商业模式不仅会生存下来，还会蓬勃发展。

Amazon's business model is not gonna just survive, it will thrive.

我们有ASML。

We have ASML.

AI可以做很多事情来帮助ASML。

AI can do many things to help ASML.

也许它能帮助计算和校准ASML所使用的许多设备的参数。

Maybe it can help calculate and calibrate some settings on many of the toolings that they have.

但AI无法制造一台价值4亿美元的机器。

But AI can't build a $400,000,000 machine.

它无法制造出完美光滑的玻璃。

It can't build perfectly smooth glass.

它无法让成千上万的供应商与ASML开展独特的业务合作。

It can't make thousands of suppliers do unique business with ASML.

ASML在很大程度上不受AI影响。

ASML is highly insulated from AI.

这个商业模式将会生存下来。

The business model is going to survive.

好市多是今年上涨了19%的另一家公司。

Costco's another company that's up like 19% this year.

它已经一路高歌猛进了。

It's just off to the races.

好市多一直以来都几乎不受任何干扰的影响。

Costco's always been a very insulated company from almost any disruption.

这就是为什么投资者愿意为它支付一个看似高昂的价格。

That's why investors have paid a perceived high price for it.

但回头来看，好市多一直显得有点便宜。

But Costco's always looked a little cheap in hindsight.

看看今天的好市多，这是另一家我从未卖出、仍持有全部仓位的公司。

Looking at Costco today, this is another company that I haven't sold, I have my full position in.

好市多肯定不会被人工智能所颠覆。

And Costco is certainly not gonna be disrupted by AI.

我们有通用电气。

We have GE.

这是另一个。

This is another one.

我不在投资组合中持有它，但通用电气是我无法想象AI会构成任何实质性风险的公司。

I don't have it in my portfolio, but GE is one that I can't imagine AI being any meaningful risk.

我们有谷歌，另一个业务模式具有抗冲击性的公司。

We have Google, another one that has a business model that's insulated.

它不会被AI颠覆。

It's not gonna be disrupted by AI.

它已经经历了最大的威胁——ChatGPT，并且顺利度过了这一挑战。

It already went through the biggest threat which was ChatGPT, and they passed that threat just fine.

我们有万事达卡。

We have Mastercard.

万事达卡确实有一个完整的数据分析部门，所以我能看到AI在这一领域带来的一些压力。

Mastercard is one where they do have a whole data analytics side, so I could see some pressures from AI on that side.

但Mastercard主要是一个网络，AI无法颠覆它。

But Mastercard is mostly a network, which AI can't disrupt.

Mastercard还是一个数据提供商，AI也无法颠覆它。

And Mastercard is a data provider, which AI can't disrupt.

AI所颠覆的是中间部分的东西。

What AI disrupts is the stuff in the middle.

我们有Meta。

We have Meta.

这显然是我正在投资的另一家公司。

This is another one obviously I'm buying into.

我认为它在AI方面具有很强的抵御能力。

I think it's highly insulated from AI.

我认为它拥有超强的计算能力。

I think it's a super computing power.

马克·扎克伯格已经带领公司走上了正确的道路，进一步扩大了它的护城河。

Mark Zuckerberg has taken the company in the right direction to widen the moat of it.

我们有Netflix。

We have Netflix.

现在有些人讨论AI是否会通过让高质量内容的创作变得更简单而颠覆它。

Now there is some chatter of whether or not AI will disrupt this by making it easier to create high quality content.

优质内容的一部分在于出色的对话、优秀的编剧和良好的节奏。

Part of what makes good content is good dialogue, good writing, good pacing.

这些正是AI所欠缺的，尤其是在长时间跨度上。

That's all stuff that AI suffers with, especially over long terms.

剧集内容、连续多季的内容。

Episodic content, seasons of content.

我不认为AI能做出这样的内容。

I don't think you're gonna get that with AI.

另一个股价大跌的公司，但我把它归入我不认为AI会颠覆的类别，那就是Spotify。

Now another one that's trading down a lot, but I'm putting it in the bucket where I I don't believe AI is gonna disrupt it is Spotify.

最后，还有Visa。

Finally, also have Visa.

如果我们投资万事达卡，就必须同时投资Visa。

If we throw on Mastercard, we have to throw on Visa.

这个主要是网络型业务。

This one is primarily a network.

人工智能不会颠覆网络。

AI is not disrupting networks.

这些是我认为最能抵御人工智能威胁，同时在未来仍能保持强劲增长前景和良好商业模式的公司。

These are the companies that I believe are the most insulated from the threats of AI while still maintaining strong growth prospects in a very prosperous business model in the future.

这些也正是我在投资时主要关注的公司。

And these are primarily the ones that I'm focusing on when I'm investing in them.

确实，我可以购买更便宜的公司，市场上任何时候都存在更便宜的选择。

Now it's true that I could buy cheaper companies, and there's always cheaper ones that exist in the market at any given time.

但请记住，当你长期持有资产时，一切都取决于商业模式。

But remember, when you're holding an asset for a long period of time, everything comes down to the business model.

商业模式是在朝着好的方向发展，还是正在衰退。

The business model is headed in a good direction or if it's being decayed.

你可以把持有公司的期限视为商业模式的放大器。

You can look at duration or the time you hold a company as a multiplier on the business model.

如果商业模式良好，并且能够生存和繁荣，那么时间将放大你的财富。

If the business model is good and it survives and it thrives, duration will multiply your wealth.

如果商业模式正在衰退，时间只会累积亏损。

The business models being decayed, duration will only accumulate losses.

当我审视这些公司时，我认为它们属于最优秀的商业模式之一。

When I look at these companies, I believe they are amongst the best business models.

接下来，我们来看看一些发布财报的公司。

Now moving on, we get to some companies reporting earnings.

其中一家刚刚发布财报的是优步。

One of them that just reported is Uber.

今天它的股价下跌了大约百分之四。

This one's down around four percent on the day.

这份财报对一些投资者来说略显逊色，但今天发布财报的难度确实很大。

The earnings report was a little underwhelming to some investors, but this is a very difficult day to report earnings on.

在其他所有股票都在下跌的时候，从来都不是发布财报的好时机。

With the rest of the market trading down, never a day that you wanna show up and give your earnings report.

你希望在投资者心情好的时候发布财报。

You wanna do it when investors are feeling good.

但现在显然不是时候。

And now it's just not the time.

投资者对优步的主要担忧之一，是Waymo和Zoox等更多出行公司进入这一领域带来的威胁。

One of the main concerns for investors with Uber is the threat of more mobility companies like Waymo and Zoox entering into this arena.

以下是达拉对此问题的回应。

Here's how Dara addresses this question.

我认为出行领域是一个万亿美元的市场。

I I think that the mobility space, this is a trillion dollar space.

请记住，我们是在竞争中诞生的。

And remember, we have been born out of competition.

对吧？

Right?

我们刚进入市场时，所有人都在争夺市场份额。

There was, when we first came out, everyone was trying to capture, the market share.

Uber的独特之处在于我们真正拥有全球布局。

And what's unique about Uber is that we truly have a global footprint.

我们不仅仅是一家美国公司。

We're not just a US business.

我们是一家全球性企业，如今已将出行和配送业务整合在一起，拥有超过4600万会员。

We're a global business, and we have both mobility and delivery under one roof now, over 46,000,000 members.

因此，我们能够在巨大且竞争激烈的市场中，长期稳定地提升市场份额。

And so we're able to actually consistently over a long period of time show in a huge market, in a very competitive market, we can gain category position.

我们能够比市场增长得更快，同时还能提高利润率。

We can grow faster than the market, and at the same time, we can increase margins as well.

竞争对我们来说并不新鲜。

So competition is nothing new for us.

我们习惯于在每一个运营市场中激烈竞争。

We're used to we compete heavily in every single market, that we that we operate in.

我认为这种情况会保持不变，因为对我们来说，市场和利益实在太大了。

And I think it's gonna stay the same just because the market and the prize is so big for us.

达拉在这里所说的话最终是正确的。

What Dara says here is ultimately true.

这是一个巨大的潜在市场。

It is a massive total addressable market.

优步仍在快速增长，利润也在迅速提升。

Uber is still growing quickly, growing profits quickly as well.

目前优步股价为74美元，在一个更乐观的市场环境中——如果我们正处于一个强劲的牛市，而不是现在这种充满负面情绪的市场——我认为它的股价有望远超100美元。

Trading at $74 Uber is a company that in a better market, if we're in a big bull market right now, not one that has so much negative sentiment in it, this is one that I could see going up well past a 100.

接下来，我们终于要谈到本周的失败案例了，那就是奈飞的联合CEO特德·萨兰多斯和华纳兄弟的代表前往国会，在宣誓后作证并接受质询，关于他们提议的收购案。

Now moving on, we finally get to the fail of the week, which in this case is the Netflix co CEO, Ted Sarandos, and a representative from Warner Bros, appearing before Congress to testify under oath and get questioned about their proposed acquisition.

当然，他们的目标是面对委员会，回答有关垄断担忧、市场权力、定价动态等问题。

The goal here, of course, is to look at the committee and answer any questions about monopolistic concerns and market powers, pricing dynamics, that type of thing.

但显然，每当大型企业高管出现在国会面前时，他们通常并不会被问到真正重要的问题。

But of course, anytime you see big business leaders go in front of Congress, they don't really get asked the important questions.