#37 安妮·杜克：通过犯错变得更好

想要正确，其实就是固守自己原有的想法。

To be right would just be I'm going to affirm my priors.

想要准确，就得去审视这些还在形成中的观点，努力让它们更贴近客观事实的真实面貌。

To be accurate would be to try to take these beliefs that are in progress and try to move them toward whatever the accurate, you know, an accurate representation of the objective truth was.

他跟我说，他会监督我做到这一点。

He told me he was gonna hold me accountable to that.

如果我想找他聊天、跟他交流，就得带着一个真正的问题去。

That if I wanted to come and talk to him and have an exchange with him, that I was going to have to come to him with a real question.

他还会盯着我怎么处理信息，随时指出我的问题。

And he was gonna hold me accountable to the way that I was processing information in the world and check me on it.

我还得愿意听他反驳我。

And that I had to be willing to listen to him disagree with me.

他说得真好，简洁明了，一针见血。

And that was all, it was such a nice concise way to put that.

你看像菲尔·泰洛克的研究就知道了，这种氛围正是团队摆脱确认偏误、转向探索式思考所必需的。

And when you look at, you know, for example, like Phil Telok's work, you can see that this is what his research has shown you need in these groups in order to move the group away from this confirmatory style of thought into this exploratory style of thought.

但那肯定还是很难吧。

That must have still been hard though.

你是怎么从自己的本能反应转变过来的？

Like how do you go from your default?

我的意思是，人天生就喜欢找借口解释一切，但你要加入一个群体，还得跟着这个群体不断反思，经历很多内心的挣扎和痛苦，不停地有人告诉你：你没看到自己的问题，或者你在这个情境下漏掉了什么。

I mean, the human default of explaining things away to being part of a group and as part of that group going through what I would consider to be a lot of reflection or pain or mental labor in terms of updating your views and constantly being told, here's what you don't see about you or here's what you're missing in this situation.

所以，说实话，埃里克跟我说那番话的时候，我特别难过。

So, yeah, I mean, first of all, when Eric said that to me, I was really sad.

我都快哭了。

Like, I think I almost cried.

那种感觉太糟糕了。

It was horrible.

那一刻，我感觉自己被彻底拒绝了。

Like, I felt so rejected in that moment.

部分原因是你太想融入这个群体了。

In part because you wanted to be a part of this group so badly.

我特别希望他能认可我。

I wanted him to approve of me.

我希望他觉得我值得聊，觉得我在游戏上有啥有意思的看法。

I wanted him to think that I was worth talking to, that I had interesting things about saying to say about the game.

我盼着他能跟我互动。

I wanted him to engage with me.

我觉得，这恰恰就是回答你那个问题的关键——你怎么应对这种痛苦？

And I think that right there is the key in answering your question of how do you deal with the pain?

我觉得，这取决于你到底把这场游戏当成了什么目标。

And I think it depends on what you decide the goal of the game is.

我觉得，社交群体就像是世上最诱人的奶酪。

So I think that a social group can act as the best piece of cheese ever.

就像那只在迷宫里跑的老鼠，当你觉得‘我值得被搭话’，那种感觉真的特别爽。

Like if we go back to the rat going through the maze, getting you to think that I'm worthwhile to talk to, that feels really good.

像埃里克、我弟弟丹·哈灵顿、大卫·格雷、约翰·亨尼根这些人，我特别希望他们对我印象好，但他们根本不会容忍我这种说话方式。

So Eric, my brother, Dan Harrington, you know, these people, David Gray, John Hennigan, these people who I really wanted to think well of me, weren't going to tolerate this type of talk for me.

所以我得带着问题去找他们。

So I needed to go to them with questions.

我就去跟他们说：‘这手我赢了，但我觉得自己打得一塌糊涂。’

And now I would go to them and say something like, Well, I won this hand, but I think I really butchered it.

他们一听，脸一下子就亮了。

And it would be like their face would light up.

这跟当初我跑去跟Eric讲那个倒霉牌故事时的情况完全相反。

I mean, it would be the opposite of what happened when I went up to Eric with the Bad Beat story.

现在他脸上笑开了花，特别投入地跟我聊这个事。

Now, it was like this huge smile on his face and total engagement with me to talk about that.

当你在群体里建立起这样的默契，并且真正践行它时，整个群体其实就在不断强化这些行为。

So, what happens is that when you set up that kind of group agreement and you really live it, the group is actually reinforcing those kinds of behaviors.

你可以想想习惯是怎么养成的，对吧？

So, you know, you can think about habit formation, right?

你得有个奖励机制，这个奖励可能就是那种短暂的快感——嗯，至少我不会因为自己错了而觉得难堪。

It's that you need to have this reward and the reward could be this short term feeling of, okay, I just don't want to feel bad about myself that I was wrong.

长期的奖励很难做到。

It's hard to have a reward that's in the long term.

你没法说：‘我的奖励是五年后我能成为个更棒的决策者。’

It's hard to say, well, my reward is that, you know, five years from now, I'll be such a better decision maker.

不，我们就想要立刻得到回报。

And no, we want a reward now.

我觉得咱们别想绕开这种对即时满足的需求。

Like, I don't think that we should try to short circuit that need for some sort of immediate gratification.

关键是你从哪儿获得这种满足感？

It's just, what are you getting the gratification from?

如果你组里氛围搞得好，那满足感就来自团队。

And if you set up a really good group, the gratification is from the group.

他们会认可你这种思维方式。

They're giving you approval for that kind of thinking.

所以，一旦你成了个特别会夸人的家伙，大家就会反过来鼓励你。

So now all of a sudden being a really good credit giver gets people to, you know, reinforce you.

敢于认错的人，反而更容易得到别人的认可，比如你不会去讲那些输牌的牢骚。

Being a good mistake admitter, like it gets people to reinforce you, you know, not telling bad beat stories.

更棒的是，因为我清楚，如果我想和一个我特别敬佩的人，深入聊聊我最爱的扑克，那我在打牌的时候，就得边打边想：等会儿聊的时候，我得有东西可说。

And then, you know, what's really, really wonderful about that is that because I knew that if I wanted to have a really deep conversation about poker, which was a game I loved with someone who I really admired, When I was playing, I had to process what was happening knowing that this conversation was going to occur later.

所以哪怕离开群体的时候，我也能用另一种眼光看世界——想着：得找点有意思的事，留着以后讨论。

And so it really helped me when I was away from the group, to be looking at the world in a different way through this eye of like, well, I want to have interesting things to ask later.

对。

Right.

加入这个群体，心理上的满足感和刺激感，远超过你一个人单干。

And being part of this group became psychologically more stimulating or rewarding than what you would be doing on your own.

不仅如此，我还想补充一点。

Not only that, let me just add something to that.

其实最近有很多研究，特别是关于部落主义，还有它和政治的关系，都特别有意思。

I think that, you know, there's all this great work that's been done, you know, particularly recently on tribalism and tribalism as it relates to politics.

纽约大学的杰·范·博维尔和安德烈亚·佩雷拉刚发表了一篇很棒的论文，讲的就是这个。

So there's a great paper actually that just came out recently from Jay Van Bovell and Andrea Pereira out of NYU, is talking about this.

他们提到，部落能给你几样东西。

And one of the things they say is that there's a few things that tribes give you.

其中一样就是让你觉得自己跟别人不一样。

But one of them is actually it gives you the idea that you're different from other people.

这种感觉其实正是部落带给你的一个重要东西。

This is actually an important thing that you get from your tribe.

他们说的当然是在政治语境下。

They're obviously talking about it in politics.

我觉得这一点特别重要。

And I think that that's important.

我觉得，我们确实需要有种感觉——自己跟周围的人有点不一样。

I do think it's important for us to feel like in some way we are different than the other people around us.

这个群体给我的其中一样东西，就是让我觉得自己跟别人不同，那是在扑克锦标赛的走廊里走路时感受到的。

So one of the things that this group gave me was one of the things that defined that tribe that I was in that made me feel like I was different than the other people around me was when I was walking down the halls of the poker tournament.

我听见别人在说：‘我怎么这么倒霉啊’，你懂吧，满耳朵都是‘惨遭逆转’的故事。

I was listening to other people say, I can't believe how unlucky I got it, you know, and you know, you're hearing this exchange of bad beat stories.

然后我就回到我这群人里，说：我这手牌打得太烂了，简直不敢相信。

And then I'm going to my group and saying, I can't believe how poorly I played this hand.

咱们能聊聊吗？

Can we talk about it?

现在这就不一样了，你知道吗？它让我觉得自己跟别人不一样，好像我正在做点特别难的事，是在克服别人轻易就能做到的东西，而这让我的这群人——你知道的——显得有点特别。

And that now is it's different, you know, it's making me feel like I'm different, that somehow I'm doing, and particularly that somehow I'm doing something difficult, that I am overcoming something natural that other people do, and that that makes my, you know, this tribe, you know, special in some way.

说实话，我觉得我们都想觉得自己特别。

Look, and I think that we all wanna feel special.

我觉得这就是为什么我们天生就爱抱团，因为每个人都想觉得自己跟周围的人有点不一样，有点独特。

I think that we are, that's why we are so tribal by nature is that we all do wanna feel like we were different and somehow, you know, than the other people around us.

这个群体给了我这种感觉，而且方式特别有建设性——因为区别就在于，它让我能跳过‘我太倒霉了’这种第一反应，转而去想：我到底哪里没打好？

And that group gave me that, but in a way that was actually really constructive for learning because the difference was around this ability to kind of get past that initial reaction of like, oh, I just got unlucky and on to the more productive exercise of where did I go wrong?

我觉得这特别有帮助。

I think that's super helpful.

有句话说，你就是你最常接触的那五个人的总和。

I mean, there's the saying that you are the sum of the five people that you hang around with the most.

如果你身边都是开放包容的人，或者你能自己营造、培养、找到这样的圈子，那会让你更容易坦然承认错误，大方讨论自己的失误。

And if you're hanging around with open minded people or you can create that circle for yourself or foster it or find it, it goes a long way to you feeling comfortable admitting you were wrong, talking about your mistakes.

我觉得，哪怕这个群体本来不是这样的，只要有一个人说：嘿，我觉得咱们可以试试这样相处，效果会很好。

And I don't think, I think that even if the group isn't naturally that way, I think that if one person says, Hey, you know, I think that this will be a really good way for us to try to start interacting with each other.

然后大家真的定下一个明确的约定，对吧？

And they actually create, you know, essentially an explicit contract around it, right?

就是给这个小组立个章程。

There's a charter for the group.

咱们不如一起定个小组章程吧。

Like let's have a group charter here.

这里头咱们都同意些什么呢？

And here's what we're gonna agree to.

我们同意，重点放在追求准确，而不是非要证明自己是对的。

We're gonna agree that we want to focus on accuracy, not on being right.

这两者其实差别可大了。

And those two things are really different.

我们要互相监督，互相提醒。

We wanna hold each other accountable.

我们希望尽量做到意见不合但态度友好，别一讨论就炸毛。

We want to make sure that as much as possible that we can disagree without being disagreeable and not be defensive about the whole thing.

咱们一起答应下来吧。

And let's all agree to that.

我觉得，只要有人带头，任何团队都能往好的方向走。

I think that you can move any group in the right direction.

好消息是，你根本不用做得多完美。

And the great news is that you don't need to be anywhere close to perfect at this.

这其实就跟我在开头说的有关，我特别喜欢扑克的一点是，玩得越多，越能看清这游戏到底有多难破解——我懂的东西其实少得可怜。

I mean, that's kind of what I was saying in the beginning about one of the things that I loved about poker was that the more that I played, the more it pulled the curtain back on how unsolvable this game really was, that there was so much that I didn't know about the game.

但我知道，哪怕只是这点小小的进步，也带来了天翻地覆的变化。

But what I understood was this little bit of progress that I was making made a really huge difference.

我当然也坐过不少桌，心里暗骂自己运气太差，为那些倒霉牌憋屈得不行，心想：这也能发生？

So I would never say that I didn't sit at plenty of tables and think about how unlucky I was getting and moan deeply in my head about the bad beats that I was taking and think about how, Oh, I can't believe that.

我明明打得比对方好太多了，结果还是输了，诸如此类的事。

I so outplayed the other player and I still lost, or whatever it was.

但我后来慢慢注意到了更多。

But I caught it more.

你的借口压根就没出现过。

It just never came your excuse either.

有出现过。

It did.

其实并没有。

Well, it didn't.

我是这么想的：假设你面前有100个能让你成长的机会，但如果你没人带着，完全靠自己摸索的话——

I mean, know, the way that I kind of put it is let's say that there is a 100 learning opportunities that kind of pop in front of you and left to your own devices without say a good, you know, learning pod that you're plugged into.

你可能只抓住了其中五个。

Maybe you catch five of them.

剩下的95个。

95

还是有95个机会错过了。

Still 95 missed opportunities.

没错。

Right.

假设因为我加入了学习小组，但90%的时间我还是会本能地按老办法来，对吧？

Let's say that because I'm in the learning pod, that 90% of the time I still default to my natural mode, right?

就是那种让约翰·海茨这样的人觉得你单打独斗根本不可能成功的方式，对吧？

The mode that makes people like John Heights so skeptical that you can do it on your own, right?

所以我还是在这么做。

So I'm still doing that.

那只是运气不好，我就当它过去了。

That was bad luck, I'm just sort of shunting that off.

但如果我有90%的效率，那我就能抓住10个，而不是5个。

But if I'm at 90%, I'm catching 10 instead of five.

你想想，这对你的学习会有多大影响。

Think of what that will do for your learning.

所以我觉得，有这么一个后续要对你负责的群体，你就更能抓到一些问题。

So what I say is that having this group that you're accountable to later means that you're going to catch a few more.

而且你不仅能抓到，还能更快地发现问题。

And you're going to actually not only do that, but you're going to catch them more quickly.

我觉得咱们谁都经历过，比如大学时那些蠢得要死的决定。

So I think we've all I mean, we can all think about, for example, the stupid decisions we made in college.

对啊，当然。

Yeah, sure.

你那时候有大把的时间和空间，可以回头去看那些决定，但等你几年后才意识到，早就晚了，算了。

Like, so you have all this time and space to now go look back on this decision that you made, but you've caught it so many years later that like, okay, whatever.

但如果你知道以后得向一群人交代，那你就可能几分钟后就发现问题了。

But I think that if know that you're going to be accountable to a group later, now you can turn that into I catch it a couple minutes later.

没错。

Right.

对吧？

Right?

这就关键了，因为这样一来，你就有机会及时采取行动了。

And that makes all the difference because it gets it in a window where you can actually do something about it.

那你第一反应会不会有偏见？

So is your initial feeling going to be biased?

你最初的判断，未必是最理性的吧？

Is your initial processing not necessarily going to be the most rational?

有可能。

Maybe.

而且每次可能都是这样。

And that might be true for every single time.

但关键是你多久能反应过来：等等，这事还有别的看法？

But how quickly do you go, Oh, wait a minute, you know, there's another way to think about that.

这种反应其实挺不理智的。

And that's actually really irrational.

那你多久才能想到这一点？

And maybe how fast are you getting to that answer?

你是等到五十岁，回想起大学时光的时候才明白的吗？

Are you getting to it when you're 50 and you're looking back on your college days, right?

还是说，其实五分钟之后你就想通了？

Or are you getting to it, you know, five minutes later?

或者当你跟一群人描述这个情况时，大家帮你一起看清楚了。

Or maybe when you describe the situation to the group, the group helps you get there.

所以说，我觉得团队最大的价值之一就在这儿。

You know, so I think that that's actually one of the really big values of the group.

听起来你学到的可不止是怎么打扑克。

It sounds like you learned a lot more than just how to play poker.

你刚才提到，你学会了如何不带敌意地表达不同意见，这挺有意思的。

I mean, one of the things you just mentioned was that you learned how to disagree without being disagreeable.

你详细说说这个。

Talk to me about that.

是的，我们面临的一个问题是，因为我们会形成一种身份认同，总觉得自个儿聪明、能干，自己的想法一般都对，对世界的认知模型也靠谱。

Yeah, so one of the issues that we have is that because of this identity that we form, which is really based on the idea that we're smart and we're competent and our beliefs are generally correct and our mental models of the world are good.

而且我们觉得自己是明智的决策者，我们持有的观点都是对的。

And, you know, we're good decision makers and the beliefs that we have are true.

当有人跟我们意见不合时，我们常常会觉得这是在攻击我们的自我认同。

When somebody disagrees with us, we can very often feel it as an attack on our identity.

一旦发生这种情况，我就觉得人就会变得容易抵触。

And when that happens, I think that disagreeableness ensues.

因为当你觉得个人被攻击了，觉得对方传递的信息是在威胁你，你自然就会像受到威胁一样反应。

Because when you feel like you're personally being attacked, that the information that is being told to you is a threat, then you will react as if you are threatened.

你会变得防御、生气，或者直接无视对方。

It will cause you to be defensive or angry, dismissive.

你会贬低对方，或者干脆觉得这人根本不值得听，动机不纯。

It will cause you to discredit the other person or just decide that in general they aren't worth listening to, or they have ill intent.

我们在政治讨论里就能明显看到这种现象，对吧？

And we can definitely see this on our political discourse, right?

所以我觉得这个概括特别有意思——比如两个人对自由贸易是不是对国家有利有不同看法。

So, I mean, I think that generalization is really interesting that two people, let's say that you have two people who have a disagreement about whether free trade is good for the country.

其实呢，我们俩都希望国家更富裕，只是对怎么实现这一点看法不同而已。

You know, it's not, oh, well, we both think that we want the country to be more prosperous and maybe we disagree on how to get there.

这样聊天，态度就友好多了。

That's a very agreeable way to have that conversation.

可现实是，你被骂成全球主义的败类，根本不关心工人阶级；或者你被说成眼界狭窄、固步自封，根本不懂经济理论。

No, it's like, you're a globalist pig and you don't care about, you know, the working man or you're provincial and closed minded and you don't understand the value of economic theory.

你看，这两种说法其实都是在攻击对方的人格，对吧？

So, and neither of, you know, both of those are attacking the other person's identity, right?

其实根本不是在争谁对谁错，而是我们俩可能初衷都很好，目标也根本是一样的。

It's not a question of whether maybe both of you have good intentions and are actually trying to reach the exact same goal, actually.

结果呢，话题就变成了对对方这个人本身的攻击，让你变得特别防御、特别不屑。

So it gets into this idea of sort of things about the other person and it causes you to be defensive and very dismissive.

你干脆就把心门关上了。

It causes you to close your mind off.

一旦你承认了：嘿，我们的想法都还在发展中，不是固定不变的。

Once you've made this agreement that look, we're all agreeing that our beliefs are under construction, that they're in progress.

因为你一开始就没说自己有多确定，所以这些信念也没那么根深蒂固。

They aren't so entrenched in your beliefs because you aren't declaring that you're certain of those things in the first place.

扑克牌教会我的一件事。

Something that poker really teaches you.

这游戏里充满了不确定性，要想保持情绪稳定，你得真能接受这种不确定。

There is so much uncertainty in that game that in order to come out of it with any kind of emotional stability, you have to get really comfortable with the uncertainty.

你得学会跟它和平共处。

You have to be okay with it.

后来我跟兄弟还有埃里克·赛德尔打交道时才明白，你还得把这种态度用在看待自己的信念上——你得能听进去对方的观点，不然根本谈不上进步。

And then what you learn, and I particularly learned from dealing with people like my brother and Eric Seidel, was that you also have to wrap that into the way that you think about your own beliefs and your own constructs that you have to be able to hear the other side because otherwise progress can't be made.

这会悄悄改变你的自我认知。

And it shifts, it kind of shifts your identity to a different place.

你现在是谁，不在于你有多坚定，而在于你多擅长倾听对方，多擅长分析这些观点。

Like your identity now becomes about acknowledging uncertainty, about how good are you at listening to the other side?

你有多擅长琢磨这些事儿？

How good are you at analyzing those things?

这样你就不会立刻产生防御反应了。

And it stops you from having that defensive reaction.

而且你会自然而然地在分歧中保持开放态度，因为你现在把分歧看成是有帮助的，而不是威胁。

And I think naturally it causes you to be agreeable in disagreement because you view the disagreement as helpful now rather than as a threat.

这彻底改变了你对分歧的看法。

It completely reframes the disagreement.

那你心里会这么想吗？

So do you think of that internally in your head?

比如我会想，我有90%把握，或者85%把握？因为大多数人根本不会这么想，他们总觉得自个儿是对的。

Like I'm 90% confident in this or 85% so that you move away from this like because most of us don't think in in that sort of way and what we do is we think we're right.

一旦发现自己错了，就赶紧找各种借口来维护自尊，而不是去更新自己的看法。

And then in the face of being wrong, we explain it away through whatever mechanism is, you know, ego satisfying to us instead of updating our view.

但我觉得，把所有信念都当成不确定的，这种思路特别好——哦，我也没说我就一定错啊。

But it strikes me that this idea of holding all of your beliefs as uncertain is a really good way to be like, oh, well, I'm not necessarily wrong now.

我只是更新一下看法而已。

I can just update my view.

这其实也是一种自我保护，但同时你也能更清楚地看清现实。

And that's almost ego protecting, but you're also getting a better view of reality.

我觉得你说得完全正确。

I think that that's absolutely true.

其实部分原因是因为，你知道，我当时正在读博士。

And I mean, in part because, you know, I was getting a Ph.

博士学位。

D.

在科研领域就是这样的。

In science.

我觉得科学家们接受的训练，本来就是要这么思考问题的，对吧？

I think that that's much more the way that scientists are sort of trained to think, right?

很多人都以为，做实验是为了证明某个假说是对的，但实际上，做实验是为了推翻它，你明白吗？

I think that most people think that you construct an experiment to try to prove a hypothesis, but actually you're constructing it to try to disprove it, right?

这种思维本质上就是抱着“我哪里错了？”的态度去认识世界。

So it's really approaching the world through this idea of why am I wrong?

这会让你意识到自己可能是错的，从而自然地让信念里带进不确定性。

Which I think forces you to understand that there's a possibility that you are, which automatically injects uncertainty into the beliefs.

打扑克之后你就更明白了，里面充满了不确定性，你看不到对手的牌。

And once you get into poker, obviously there's a lot of uncertainty and you can't see the other player's cards.

所以你得学会接受，你永远都在猜对方可能有什么牌，或者什么打法才是对的，都是在概率范围内摸索。

So you understand that you're always working within ranges of kind of guessing about what the other person might hold or about what the proper line of play is.

但很多人偏要给这套系统硬塞确定性。

Now, people try to impose certainty on that system.

这就催生了自我服务偏见——我赢了是因为我牛，我输了是因为我运气差。

That's how you get to something like self serving bias, which is, you know, every time I win it's because I'm a genius.

因为我们天生就爱追求确定性。

And every time I lose it's because I'm unlucky because we are certainty cravers.

我们对确定性上瘾了。

We're really addicted to certainty.

我的团队逼着我真正接受这一点，彻底搞懂它。

My group forced me to really embrace it and really get my arms around it.

我觉得这真的特别有帮助。

And I think that it's incredibly helpful.

所以，我就是这么被训练去思考的。

So this is the way that I was trained to think.

我以前太沉浸在这个世界里了，当你问我：‘你是不是走路吃饭都带着概率在评估自己相信的东西？’

And I was so sort of entrenched in this world that when you ask me, Is that the way you walk around with like some probability assigned to whatever you believe?

我会讲一个书里章节注释里才有的小故事，挺隐蔽的。

I'll tell a story that's actually in a chapter note in the book, so it's kind of hidden.

我敢打赌大多数人没看过，但我以前和哥伦比亚大学的斯图尔特·费恩斯坦一起吃午饭。

I'm sure that most people haven't seen it, but I was having lunch with Stuart Feinstein who's at Columbia.

他写过一本叫《无知》的神书，还有一本叫《失败》。

And he actually wrote an amazing book called Ignorance and actually another book titled Failure.

这两本书都在讲，这些东西其实特别棒。

And both of them are about how great all of that is.

他在哥伦比亚还开了一门课，就叫《无知》，讲的是科学进步离不开这个前提：

And he teaches a class at Columbia called Ignorance also, which is the idea that in order for science to proceed, have

要敢于承认自己的无知。

to come from Admit our own ignorance.

对，就是得承认我们自己的无知。

Admit our own ignorance, exactly.

所以那天我们在一家亚洲餐厅吃午饭，我是素食者，还对麸质过敏，点餐可真够头疼的。

So anyway, we were having lunch in an Asian restaurant and I'm like vegan and I'm allergic to gluten, so it's a little hard for me to order.

酱油里有麸质，所以在中餐馆里这问题可不小。

Soy sauce has gluten in it, so this is a problem in a Chinese restaurant.

我当时在点餐，服务员的母语不是英语。

So anyway, I was ordering, and the waiter's first language was not English.

我不是在跟母语者说话，还得费劲解释我所有不能吃的东西。

So I'm not speaking to a native speaker, and I'm trying to explain, like, all the things that I need.

跟服务员来回沟通了好一阵子。

And it was a lot of sort of back and forth with the waiter.

他走开后，我看着Stuart说：我觉得我有73%的把握。

And when he walked away, I looked at Stuart and I said, I think I'm 73%.

那句话就是我全部想说的了。

That was the sum total of my sentence.

他一听就笑喷了。

And he started cracking up.

他说：我觉得你没那么高。

And he said, I think you're a lot lower.

我给你打个62分吧。

I'm gonna put you at like 62.

但我们俩都明白，我其实想表达的是——

But we both understood that what I was-

你马上就能懂我在说什么。

Immediately what you were talking

我那话的意思。

about.

我本来想说的。

What I was saying.

然后他跟我说，他从来没遇见过有人跟他聊过，自己订单能正确送达的概率有多大。

And then he pointed out to me that he had never had someone say something like that to him about the probability that their order was gonna come back right.

但这种事在扑克玩家身上太常见了。

But this is something that poker players do all the time.

对扑克玩家来说，很自然的问题就是，比如我跟一个扑克玩家聊天，他们可能会说，你知道吧，现在政治上，那些突击步枪配件的法案能通过吗？

So like a very natural question for a poker player would be like, I'm having a conversation with a poker player and they'll say something like, you know, I mean, they could be saying something political like, well, right now there's, you know, are they gonna pass legislation for bump stocks?

有人可能会说：我觉得这法案肯定能过。

So someone might say like, oh, you know, I think that the bump stock legislation is gonna get passed.

那我的问题，或者他们反过来问我，就会问：你觉得这事儿的概率是多少？

And my question would always be then, or their question to me, depending on who stated the belief would be, well, what do you think the price of that is?

其实‘概率’说白了就是‘赔率’，对吧？

So, price is just a way to say probability, right?

然后他们就会说：我觉得是三比二，或者70%，反正有各种说法。

And so then they could say, you know, I think it's three to two or 70% or I mean, there's all sorts of ways to express that.

咱们来聊聊扑克里的决策吧。

Let's get into decision making in poker.

不过我想先聊聊，赌注高低是怎么影响你的决策的？还有就是，上电视和不上电视，这中间的差别。

But I wanna start with kind of like, how do the stakes affect your decision making process or And within that, kind of the context of being on television or not on television.

那我先说说赌注的问题。

So let me start with the stakes.

理想情况下，扑克里的赌注本身不该影响你的判断，唯一的影响是——不同赌注级别下，对手的打法不一样。

The ideal in poker would be that the stakes don't matter except in as much as your opponents play differently depending on what stakes you're playing at.

赌注低的时候，对手大多是新手。

So when you're playing at lower stakes, your opponents tend to be more beginners.

赌注特别高的时候，对手就都是高手了。

When you're playing at really high stakes, they tend to be more advanced.

我以前常说，水平差的人，不管是新手还是高手，都差，但差的方式完全不一样。

What I used to say is that the players who aren't so good at the beginner levels or the advanced levels, they're both not good, but they're not good in different ways.

低级别桌面上，大家普遍偏保守。

So at the lower levels, they tend to be more passive.

动不动就只会跟注，不太会主动进攻。

They tend to be doing more just sort of calling.

而在高注额时，水平不那么高的玩家往往更爱加注。

At the higher levels, the players who aren't so good tend to be more raising.

他们通常表现得过于激进。

They tend to be sort of overly aggressive.

这只是一个大致的趋势，并不是人人都这样。

So that's just sort of a general, it's not true of everybody.

当然，我们说的是平均情况，但总体来看确实如此。

Obviously we're talking about averages here, but on average, that would be true.

所以，注额影响你的唯一合理原因，就是对手的打法变了，你自然得调整策略，针对对手的倾向做出最优应对。

So that should be the only reason that the stakes are affecting you is that when your opponents are making different choices, you obviously should be adjusting your strategy to try to come up with the optimal strategy against the choices that your opponent is making.

但现实可不是这样。

Now, that's not what happens.

随着注额升高，玩家的打法确实会变，尤其是当钱变得更重要的时候。

As you move up in stakes, it does change the way people play in particular when the money matters more.

当钱对人来说真成了大事，通常会出现两种情况。

So when the money really matters to people, one of two things happens.

这可不是总的金额。

And that's not a total amount of money.

而是对他们个人来说重要的那部分钱。

It's amount of money that matters to them individually.

没错。

Correct.

也就是他们总资产的百分比。

Expressed as a percentage of the total money that they have.

明白了。

Okay.

你一直该做的就是量力而行，也就是选一个输钱也不会对你的整体生活造成太大影响的级别。

So, you know, one of the things you always wanna be doing is we talk about playing within your bankroll, which means that playing at a level where if you lose, it's not really affecting your overall situation very much.

但很多人做不到，因为他们太自信了。

People aren't very good at that because they're overconfident.

所以很多人老是超预算玩，经常玩得超出自己的承受范围。

So people tend to be playing out of their bank role, outside of their bank role way too often.

结果他们往往变得特别怕风险，就怕把钱输掉。

And then what happens is that they can very often become risk averse because they're just too worried about losing the money.

所以在扑克里，你得学会把筹码和钱分开看。

So one of the things that you wanna try to do in poker is to separate the chips from the money.

要把筹码当成打一局牌的工具，根本别把它当钱看。

You wanna view the chips as tools to accomplish a particular goal in a hand and not view it as money at all.

明白了。

Okay.

这真有意思。

That's really interesting.

它就是你的专业工具。

They're like the tools of the trade.

你不是在往桌上推钱。

So you're not like pushing money across the table.

你现在只是在推

Now you're just pushing

我用这些筹码，其实是想让你做出某种特定的行为。

I'm gonna I'm using these tokens in order to try to get you to behave in a particular way.

哦，明白了。

Oh, okay.

如果能真正做到这一点，你做出最优决策的可能性就会大得多。

Now, if you can do that in the ideal world, then you're much more likely to be making optimal choices.

但如果因为太在意钱而做不到，尤其是刚上手的时候，你往往会变得特别保守。

If you can't because the money matters to you, then what will happen is that if you're kind of fresh to the situation, you'll often be risk averse.

如果你情绪被调动得太厉害，反而可能变得特别爱冒险。

If you get too emotionally lit up in the moment, then you might become too risk seeking.

也就是说，你可能会想孤注一掷翻盘，但这种做法通常并不明智。

In other words, you might be trying to sort of go for a double it up strategy, which is usually not a very good choice.

所以这其实取决于你当时处在游戏的哪个阶段。

So it kind of depends on where you are in the arc of the game.

比如说，如果你手气正顺，玩得超出了自己的资金范围，那你是不太会去冒大险的。

You know, if things are going sort of, you know, for you and you're playing outside your bankroll, you're not gonna be seeking risks very much.

我就能利用这一点占便宜。

And I'm gonna be able to advantage that.

问题就在于，我能利用你不敢承担足够风险这一点。

That's the problem is that I can take advantage of the fact that you're refusing to take on enough risk.

但如果你真的在输钱，尤其是输掉那些对你来说特别重要的钱，你往往会反过来，拼命去冒险，就是想靠一把翻盘，摆脱我让你陷入的这种糟糕情绪。

But if you're actually losing and it's money, particularly money that really matters to you, now you'll very often start doing the opposite, which is taking on a lot of risk because you're just trying to sort of let it ride your way out of this really bad emotional state that I've gotten you into.

你能不能跟我聊聊情绪的作用？它们是怎么影响你的决策的？不光是在扑克里，现实生活里也一样。

Talk to me a little bit about the role of emotions and how they affect your decisions, not only in poker, but I mean in real life.

不过，扑克里有没有什么特别的地方，会让情绪被放大得更明显？

But is there anything particular to poker that it highlights or accentuates?

我觉得扑克之所以特别适合观察情绪对决策的影响，就是因为这里面情绪特别多。

So I think that one of the reasons why poker is a kind of interesting place to look at the role of emotion in decision making is because there's a lot of emotion.

其中一个原因就是，最让我们情绪激动的，往往是最近一次的输赢经历。

And one of the reasons why is that one of the things that gets us really emotional is what is the most recent path that we've taken in terms of what our outcomes look like?

我经常说，扑克里有个优势，就是因为我们一直在不停地交换筹码，对吧？

So what I talk about is that in poker you have this advantage, which is that because we have this constant exchange of chips, right?

我做每一个决定，筹码都会明显地流向我或离开我，你每时每刻都能看到，哪怕是最微小的操作决策，也都有实实在在的后果。

I make a decision, chips go either toward me or away from me that you can see very clearly at every moment that every single decision that you make, even these little tiny executional ones actually have consequences.

这些操作决策真的会影响你的最终结果，因为你看得见过程，而不是只盯着最后的数字。

That executional decisions really matter to what your bottom line is because you're seeing this, you know, you're not seeing sort of the end result.

你看到的是那些起起落落，对吧？

You're seeing the upticks and downticks, right?

我觉得，总的来说，这能帮你明白一个道理：你做的每一个决定都带着风险，你就该这么对待它。

So I think that that's, I think in general, that's good for making you understand this idea that every decision that you make has some risk to it and you should be treating it like that.

但从情绪角度来说，这可就糟了，因为你被股价的波动牵着鼻子走。

But it's bad from the emotional standpoint because you're getting yanked around by the ticker.

如果你持有一只股票，本来打算长期持有，那每小时都去盯着它涨跌，根本不是个好主意。

So if you are holding a stock and you've decided that it's a long term hold, it's not good every hour to go look at how the stock is doing.

你要是真这么干，日子准得过成一场噩梦——股票一跌，你就崩溃，可你本来的目标，不就是让长期趋势往上走吗？

You're going to have like a really unhappy life if you do that, because when the stock goes down, you're going to be super, super sad, even though your idea is just to sort of have the trend line go upward.

书里我放了伯克希尔·哈撒韦的走势图，你看它过去四十年的样子就知道了。

And, you know, so I think I have a Berkshire Hathaway graph in the book of saying, look at Berkshire Hathaway over the last forty years,

你挺漂亮的

you're pretty

开心吧？

happy, right?

但你看，周二上午十一点半，你现在又特别沮丧。

But look at it on this 11:30 on a Tuesday, now you're really sad.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，我们想说的是，扑克牌特别能凸显这个问题，因为你根本躲不开那个实时波动。

So, what we're trying, you know, so poker really highlights this problem, because you can't help but see the ticker.

你不能说：‘算了，我不看了。’

It's not like you can say, Well, I'm just not gonna look at it.

我就等游戏结束再看结果。

And I'm gonna see how I do at the end of the game.

然后希望最后手里钱多了点。

And, you know, hopefully at the end of the game, I have more money.

你不得不一直盯着那个实时分数看。

You're forced to watch the ticker all the time.

这就让大脑里负责情绪的那部分彻底被激活了。

And so it causes that emotional part of your brain to really light up.

我本来在想，扑克还有个特别的地方，但后来发现这其实不独特——就是上电视的时候，我猜你更倾向于做那些别人挑不出毛病的决定。

I was thinking like another unique aspect to poker, but then I was thinking it's not unique is the TV thing, which is when you're on TV, I would assume that you're more likely to try to make decisions that other people can't criticize.

但我觉着，这种现象在公司里也普遍存在，对吧？

But I also think that exists within organizations, right?

就像电视变成了公司，变成了你的同事、同伴、上司。

Like where often the TV becomes the organization, our peers, our colleagues, our bosses.

你聊聊这个吧。

Talk to me about that.

我觉得特别有意思的是，当你知道自己正被盯着看的时候，也就是我书里说的‘结果至上’最管用的时候。

So I think that what's really interesting is that when you know that you are being examined, this is when what I call in the book resulting really, really matters.

比如在公司里，我们是怎么评估一个领导的？

So that can be in an organization where how are we evaluating people as leaders?

我们是不是在默认他们像在电视上一样，大家只看决策结果，却不管决策过程，结果一出来就立马评判？

Are we behaving like they're on television and their decisions are exposed to a critique, but not the decision process, that we're going to be swayed by the outcome of the decision.

这才是电视带来的真正影响。

That's where the television really matters.

当我上电视时，考虑要做的决定，我知道可能结果会不好，但我心里想的不是‘这个决定对不对’。

When I'm on TV, and I'm thinking about the decision that I'm gonna make, and I understand that it may have a bad outcome, what's in my head is not, is this decision good or bad?

而是‘大家会不会觉得这决策很烂’，就因为我这把牌输了。

It's, are people going to think the decision is good or bad, because I happen to have lost the hand.

公司里也是一样，存在这个问题。

And this is the problem in companies as well.

如果我知道，我汇报的那位领导，只盯着结果看，还觉得我像在镜头前一样，一出事就挑刺，光用结果来评判决策质量，那我就会像你说的，变得不敢冒险。

So, if I know as, you know, if I know that the person who's in the leadership role that I'm having to report to is going to be looking at the outcomes of the decision and act like I'm on television, and all of a sudden do some critique when things turn out poorly, overly relying on the outcome in order to derive the decision quality, it's gonna make me, what you just said, make safer decisions.

那什么叫不敢冒险？

Now, what do I mean by safer?

就是挑那些怎么都不会被骂的决定来做。

Decisions that are more bulletproof to criticism.

更正常一点。

More normal.

更正常，对吧？

More normal, right?

这简直就是创新的杀手。

So it's an innovation killer.

其实我们能清楚看到这一点——虽然我在这本书里没怎么深入谈创新这个话题，毕竟篇幅有限，但书的开篇恰恰最能体现这个问题。

So we can see this actually with, I didn't get into this issue of innovation very much in this particular book, but you know, because you only have so much space, but this opening, the way that I opened this book really shows this problem.

你跟我说说你是怎么开篇的吧，我们之前录之前就聊过这个。

Tell me about how you opened the book, which we were talking about this before we started recording, but

当然。

Sure.

超级碗还剩26秒。

There's twenty six seconds left in the Super Bowl.

那是2015年。

It's 2015.

西雅图海鹰队对新英格兰爱国者队，当然了，因为爱国者队年年都进超级碗。

The Seattle Seahawks are playing the New England Patriots, of course, because the Patriots are in every Super Bowl.

我是铁杆爱国者队球迷。

And I'm a huge Patriots fan.

哦，那好吧，

Oh, well,

那你可真倒霉。

too bad for you.

费城这边，我们正坐着呢

Philly, We're sitting

我是费城队的球迷。

and I'm a Philadelphia fan.

我们终于等到自己的冠军了。

So we finally got ours.

活该你倒霉。

Too bad for you.

你那一年就拿去吧。

You can have your one year.

谢谢。

Thank you.

行吧。

All right.

现在是第二档进攻，海鹰队还剩一次暂停。

So it's second down and the Seahawks have one time out.

这事儿可太关键了。

This is actually really important.

他们落后四分。

And they're down by four.

比赛最后一攻了。

Last play of the game.

大家都觉得皮特·卡罗尔会让拉塞尔·威尔逊交给马什恩·林奇冲球。

Everybody's expecting Pete Carroll to call a run play for Russell Wilson to hand off to Marshawn Lynch.

这本来是大家料定的打法。

This is the expected play.

野兽模式，没错。

Beast mode, yeah.

对，直接硬冲过去就行。

Yes, just plow through.

但佩特·卡罗尔却做出了一个出人意料的决定——让拉塞尔·威尔逊传球，结果球被马尔科姆·巴特勒在端区成功抄截，这一幕成了经典。

Pete Carroll does something really unexpected and he has Russell Wilson throw a pass and the pass is intercepted quite famously by Malcolm Butler in the end zone.

这场比赛是直播的。

And this was on television.

这可是大场面啊，第二天的头条全是‘天哪’，批评简直铺天盖地。

This is, it's, you know, And a big stage, game the headlines the next day were just, oh my gosh, they were so brutal.

我觉得特别有意思的是，大家争论的不是这个决定对还是错。

And what I thought was really interesting was that it wasn't an argument like, oh, was it a good decision or a bad decision?

而是：这到底是超级碗历史上最烂的决定，还是整个橄榄球史上最烂的决定？

It was, was it the worst decision in Super Bowl history or the worst decision in football history?

那才是关键问题。

That was the question.

我觉得特别有意思的是，你说得对，咱们来想两个不同的假设场景。

And I think that what's really interesting about that is to your point, well, let's take two different thought experiments.

第一个假设：要是那球接住了，新闻头条会是什么样子？

Thought experiment number one is imagine if the ball were caught, what are the headlines look like?

他简直是天才。

He's a genius.

他把比尔契克耍得团团转。

He outsmarted Belichick.

这其实就是典型的以结果论英雄。

So that's, that's the general problem of resulting.

说白了，以结果论英雄就是：你根本看不清决策过程——你不知道他脑子里怎么想的，不知道他算过什么数据，也不清楚当时阵型怎么排的，全都是黑箱。

So that's resulting in a nutshell is that what you're doing is you're taking something where the decision process, whether the decision itself is it's opaque, you can't see into what's the decision good or bad, you can't see into the process, you don't know what was in his head or what the mathematics were, or you're not, you don't necessarily know what the formation was, whatever it might be, it's opaque.

所以人们就偷个懒，用个捷径：反正我看得见结果好坏，那就拿结果来评判吧。

And so as a heuristic, as a shortcut, what we do is we say, Well, I know what the quality of the outcome was.

那真的太糟了。

It was really bad.

所以显然，我的意思是，这简直糟透了。

So therefore it must have been, I mean, and it was spectacularly bad.

因此，这肯定是个极其糟糕的决定。

So therefore, it must have been a really horrible decision.

然后我们来做个反向假设：如果球被接住了，大家会认为爱国者队根本没时间反攻，海鹰队赢了。

And then we do the thought experiment where the outcome is really good, and the ball is caught, and we presume that the Patriots don't have enough time to drive it back down and the Seahawks win.

这时候我们就会觉得，很明显，他这是完胜比尔契奇。

And we can see that now it's very obvious that it would have been, you know, he outsmarted Belichick.

事实上，我们都知道，因为那记‘费城特技’——

In fact, we know that because the Philly special

我刚刚也在想这个。

I was just thinking about that.

我想到的是，道格·彼得森可能就处在另一个极端，至少从结果来看是这样。

That came to mind is like Doug Peterson is on the other end of possibly this, at least from an outcome basis.

我们看不到那个决策过程。

We don't we don't see the the process.

没错。

Exactly.

结果刚好凑效了。

And that happened to work out.

那也是一个出人意料的战术安排。

Now that was also an unexpected play call.

他们本来以为他会传给哈德。

They expected him to go for Had

要是没成功，那可就特别糟了。

that not worked, it would've Particularly would've

要是老鹰队输了，大家肯定都会盯着这一球说：早知道就直接踢个三分算了。

been Particularly if the Eagles lost, they would've been looking at that one play and saying they should have just gone for the three points.

我的意思是，这事儿明摆着就是他们事后会说的话。

I mean, it's very clear that that's what they would have been saying.

结果刚好成了。

It happened to work.

于是呢，他就被捧成了绝顶聪明的天才。

And so, and he's, you know, lauded as an incredible genius.

这就是问题的根源。

So that's the resulting problem.

当你用这种方式去评价人的时候，这问题可就大了，最要命的是，它会彻底扼杀创新。

And that's a really big problem when that's the way that you're evaluating people and where it's a really huge problem is that it's a real innovation killer.

接下来说第二点，就是大伙儿都以为他这次该把球交给马什恩·林奇。

And that comes to the second point, which is that part about everybody expected him to, in this case, hand off to Marshawn Lynch.

对。

Right.

咱们再做个思想实验。

We can do another thought experiment.

他把球传给了马什恩·林奇。

He hands off to Marshawn Lynch.

马肖恩·林奇没推进成功。

Marshawn Lynch doesn't get in.

他又把球传给了他。

He hands it off to him again.

那他就按常规方式失败了。

Then he fails conventionally.

对啊。

Ally.

他还是按常规方式失败了。

He fails conventionally.

你觉得有人会说这是个糟糕的决定吗？

And do you think anybody's saying that was a terrible decision?

不会。

No.

根本不会。

No.

所以，如果你是个领导者——而我们其实都是——那你就是在告诉员工：别做任何出格的事，别搞什么创新或出人意料的举动。

So, if you're a leader and you're a result or which we all kind of are, then what you're doing is you're telling employees, don't ever make an unusual choice, don't do anything innovative or unexpected.

因为一旦搞砸了，我就会狠狠收拾你，就像《今日美国》在海鹰队输掉超级碗第二天那样。

Because if it fails, I will come down on your head, like I'm USA Today, the day after the Seahawks lost that Super Bowl.

这说白了就是现实。

And that's basically what happens.

你说这事儿多奇怪啊。

You know, it's so strange.

IBM 怎么可能被苹果干趴下呢？

How could IBM possibly ever get crushed by Apple?

真是怪事一桩。

What a weird thing.

IBM 钱多得是。

IBM has all the money.

他们早就占着市场了。

They already have the market.

他们还有客户。

They have the customers.

你说这叫什么？

They you know, what is that?

这怎么可能呢？

How is that?

我一直觉得，这是因为IBM的文化太看重结果了。

And it's, I've always felt that it's because IBM is operating under a culture of resulting.

而苹果不是这样。

And Apple isn't.

苹果本质上就是在做非传统的事，这由他们的本质决定。

Apple can't possibly be operating under a they're doing something unconventional by definition.

他们的商业模式就是敢于做反常规的决定，做别人想不到的事，而且明知大多数都会失败，还是照做不误。

Their, their whole business model is to make unconventional choices, and to do things that are unexpected under the conditions where they're expecting most of them to fail.

但IBM一旦进入运营模式，尤其是你想想，他们当初创业的时候，可不是这样的。

But IBM, once they're in operational mode, certainly when you know, were a startup, they weren't.

但一旦进入运营模式，他们就成了那种只追求结果的公司。

But once they're an operational mode, they're a company that's just a company that's being run on resulting.

这么干的话，员工自然就会挑稳妥的路走。

And when you do that, what's gonna happen is that your employers are gonna be making safe bets.

所谓稳妥，就是那种结果波动很小、大概率不会偏离零太多的选择。

And by safe bets, I mean, ones that are likely to have a lot of, unlikely to have a lot of variance around zero, right?

比如，可能会冒出一堆特别小的胜利，多到数不清。

Like they're gonna be either like little, you know, maybe we're gonna have lots and lots and lots of tiny winners.

因为我真正想做的，就是别让自己输得太惨。

Because what I'm really trying to do is protect myself from losing.

你这么干了，最后能得到啥？

And when you do that, what are you gonna get?

就是一点一滴的小进步，对吧？

Very small incremental changes, right?

最后出来的，都是些微不足道的创新。

You'll get gonna get tiny little innovation.

但如果环境变化比这还快，你就会失去相对优势，

But if the environment changes faster than that, you'll lose your relative position and

就这么完了。

And that's it.

然后突然间，你成了IBM，外面全是苹果和微软，你还在那儿纳闷：这咋就发生了呢？

And then all of a sudden, you're IBM and there's Apple and Microsoft out there, and you're like scratching your head as to what happened.

说实话，我就想在这儿做点什么。

You know, I actually, I wanna do it here.

这个例子特别简单。

This is a really simple one.

人家会说：好吧，这些是大公司，可我的生活呢？

People are like, okay, those are big companies, but what about my life?

我最喜欢拿这个例子来说明这一点。

This is the example that I love to give of this.

你正和配偶开车，得赶去参加个晚宴。

So you're driving with your spouse and you have to get to somewhere like a dinner party.

你就走平时那条路。

And you take the usual route.

你照常去朋友家参加晚宴，结果路上堵得厉害。

So you go the usual way that you go to this person's house to the dinner party, and there's like really bad traffic on the route.

你心里嘀咕：天哪，真够糟心的。

And you know, the, Oh man, I'm so upset.

别担心，亲爱的。

And it's like, don't worry, honey.

你哪能料到这个呢？

How could you have known?

咱们肯定来得及。

Like, we'll be fine.

他们能理解的。

They'll understand.

我刚发消息告诉他们路上堵车了，谁也没生气。

I'm texting them now to tell them there's traffic and no one's mad at each other.

但你一嚼东西，就会想：诶，你知道吗？

But what happens when you chew, you're like, you know what?

有人刚告诉我一条近路，去那儿快多了。

Somebody just told me about this shortcut and it's like way faster to get there.

完全是条新路线，你一走，结果还是一样。

It's like a totally brand new route and you go on it and it's the same thing.

要么堵得要死，要么施工，要么出事故。

There just happens to be really bad traffic or there's construction or there's an accident.

就是说啊，

Like, it's just

然后你就迟到了。

And then you're late.

对啊。

Yeah.

车上每次都吵得不可开交。

Huge fight in the car ever.

你一进门，饭桌上所有人都显得特别不自在

And you walk in and everybody's like really uncomfortable at the dinner party

因为大家都看得出来你

because they can see that you

等等

Wait.

这是你亲身经历的吗？

Is this from personal experience?

不是

No.

但这真是个特别棒的思想实验，你能想象出来，差别到底在哪？

It's such a great thought experiment though, and you can see, and what's the difference?

一种情况是你做了那种老生常谈、经得起时间考验的事

In one case, you did the thing that was conventional, that was sort of time test.

另一种情况呢，你做了个有创意的举动

In the other case, you did something that was innovative.

每当你做出一个创新的选择，你就是在把自己暴露在可能的失败面前。

And whenever you make an innovative choice, you're exposing yourself to the resulters.

天啊，要是这种事发生在超级碗这种全国直播的舞台上，那可就糟了。

And God forbid, it's on a really big stage, like national television at the Super Bowl.

因为风险比收益大得多，对吧？

It's because there's more downside than upside, right?

在大多数情况下，比如你这次提前一分钟到，也不是因为你比别人聪明、选了条更优的路，对吧？

In most scenarios, like in this case, if you get there one minute early, it's not because you're a genius than this route, right?

但如果你没按时到，那大家就会觉得是你出了问题。凯恩斯不是说过吗？宁可按常规方式失败，也不要以非传统方式成功，我记得是这么说的。

And but if you don't get there on time, then you you, you know, it was Keynes who said it's better to fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally, I believe.

所以我觉得，不管哪一次尝试，风险通常都大于收益。

So I think that in any given try, there is more downside than upside.

我觉得你

Think you

可以试一次。

can have one trial.

从长远来看，因为你错过了 paradigm 的转变，也就错失了做出重大改变的机会。

In the long run, because you miss the paradigm shifts, you miss the ability to make really big changes.

其实生活中也是这样。

And that's true in your life also, by the way.

如果你不敢尝试新事物，不敢换职业，就怕万一不成会特别难过。

If you're afraid of trying new things, of changing your career because if it doesn't work out, you're gonna be really sad.

结果你宁可忍着那份讨厌的工作，也不愿动一动，对吧？

And you would rather have it not work out by staying in the crappy job that you don't like, right?

你这其实就是在迎合结果。

I mean, you're resulting yourself there.

你不敢做出改变，不敢冒险创新，就是怕承担失败的代价。

And you're refusing to make a change or make an innovative choice because you're afraid of the downside.

这种心态长期下去，后果会很严重。

And that can have really bad long term consequences.

说实话，打扑克的时候我就经历过很多次，通过跟人聊这些，我突然意识到：等等，其实……

I mean, I can tell you there were lots of, there were many moments in poker where through these kinds of conversations that I was having with people, I thought, you know what?

我觉得我在这些特定情况下这么打，可能还有别的更好的方式。

I think that this way that I've been playing in these particular situations, I think there might be a different way to do it.

我一开始就知道，大概率会输，因为我还不熟悉这个策略。

And I understood going in that I was probably gonna lose at first because I wasn't used to the strategy.

我只是在试着玩一玩。

I was sort of trying it out.

我在琢磨，什么时候该用这个方法？

Was trying to figure out when should I apply it?

什么时候不该用？

When shouldn't I?

哪些时刻才是合适的？

What are the right moments?

具体该怎么操作才对？

Exactly how should I execute on this?

我心里清楚，因为是在尝试新东西，成绩未必会好。

And I understood that I wasn't gonna do so well necessarily because I was trying something innovative.

但我当时也觉得，从长远来看，这么做对我更有利，因为我在顺应趋势的变化。

But I also thought that it was long run better for me because I was going to be doing something that was better for the way that the was moving.

扑克市场是会变的——玩家的打法会变，对手的水平会变，尤其是上了电视之后，数据分析一搞，各种情况都跟着变了。

Poker markets move, like the way that people play changes, how much knowledge or opponents have changes, you know, particularly it gets on TV and you can run analytics on it and, you know, all sorts of stuff.

不过说实话，我觉得短期来看虽然风险小，但长远来看反而埋了个大雷。

But yeah, so I think that it's actually like, yes, in the short term, there's less downside, but it creates this really huge long term downside.

结果呢，在商业世界里，你可能突然就变成了IBM，手忙脚乱地想改商业模式，就因为别人靠创新把你碾压了。

And what ends up happening is that either in, you know, in the business world, you're all of a sudden IBM and trying to scramble and rethink your business model in order to compete with people who have just crushed you because they were willing to be innovative.

在个人生活里，也会让你原地踏步，动不了。

And in your own life, it causes you to be stuck.

所以聊聊吧，

So talk to

一个像IBM这样的公司，该怎么在内部做决策，才能对任何问题都找到最有可能最优的解决方案？

me about like the decision process an organization like IBM should use internally to come to the most probabilistic best solution to a problem, any given problem.

我觉得这事得从两个方面来看。

Well, so I think that there's two pieces to it.

第一点是，你得让大伙儿明白，别怕某一次尝试的结果。

Piece number one is that you have to really get people to feel like they shouldn't be afraid of the outcome on any given try.

因为单看一次，根本没法判断这事儿到底行不行。

Because on a single try, we don't have enough data to know whether it's any good.

你就是扔了一次硬币，对吧？

You flipped one coin, right?

就一次，你能看出啥来？

Like one time, what does that tell you?

你可没扔上一万次。

You don't have 10,000 coin flips.

所以你得让大家觉得，一次没成也没关系。

So you have to get people to feel like it's okay if the one try doesn't work out.

我觉得作为领导，你得在文化上特别擅长传达这一点，而且自己还得真这么干。

And I think that that's, as a leader, you just have to culturally, you really have to be good at communicating that and then you have to live it.

你得身体力行。

You have to act it.

那你怎么做到这一点呢？

So how do you do that?

那就和团队一起梳理决策流程，把你们画出的决策树正式记录下来。

Well, work the decision process through with the group and actually memorialize the tree that you create.

那你怎么做到这一点呢？

So how do you do that?

把正在考虑的决策列出来，尽量搞清楚：选择A、B、C分别可能带来哪些结果。

Have decisions under consideration and what you wanna do is try to figure out as best as you can what are the scenarios that you think are gonna result from decision A versus decision B versus decision C.

然后试着给这些结果估算一下概率。

And then try to assign probabilities to those scenarios.

别怕这么做。

And don't be afraid of it.

大多数人不敢估概率，总觉得有个‘正确答案’。

Most people are afraid to assign probabilities because they think that there's a right answer.

这没错。

And it's true.

其实是有个客观正确的答案的。

There is some objectively right answer.

但你猜的这个数字，要是真能照见客观现实，大概也不会完全准确。

And it's likely that the guess that you give is not gonna be, if we had some mirror into the objective reality, you know, it's probably not gonna be perfect.

我之前说有73%的概率能拿回我的饭，其实我也不确定是不是正好73%。

When I said that I was whatever 73% to get my food back correctly, I don't know if I was exactly 73%.

但关键是，我愿意去估一个数，这总比什么都不做要强。

But the fact that I was making a try at it is better than not trying at all.

因为你要是根本不估，那要么是觉得结果铁定如此，要么就是说：反正就两种可能，成或不成。

Because if you don't try it all, you're either saying that, well, you're certain it's gonna turn out in a certain way, or you're saying something like, well, it either will or it won't.

事实上，这事儿本来就是概率性的，而你很可能比谁都更懂，毕竟你有自己做这类决定的经验。

I mean, the fact is that it is probabilistic and you're probably more of an expert than anybody else because you have your own experience in making these kinds of choices.

你当然也可以去查查各种商业案例，找点数据来帮你调整这个估计。

You can certainly go and look at, you know, there's all sorts of business cases and there's data that you can go look at to try to refine that guess.

而你愿意去估这个数，本身就说明你特别想搞清楚更多信息。

And the desire to make the guess makes you very information hungry.

所以这反而让你更开放，因为你的目标不再是非得找到正确答案不可。

So, it actually makes you more open minded because now your goal is not like I have to have the right answer.

而是想尽办法贴近那个客观概率。

It's I wanna try to get as close as I possibly can to what the objective probability is.

而要做到这一点，就得收集大量信息，听听不同观点的人怎么说，这样你才能开始问自己：这事哪儿可能不对？

And I can only do that by getting lots of information or listening to people who have different points of view so that I can start asking myself like, why might this be wrong?

我是不是哪里想岔了？

Why might I be off on this?

然后不断回头调整，反复获取反馈。

And going back and just constantly trying to refine and get that feedback.

这会让你变得特别渴望信息。

So it causes you to be really information hungry.

也会让你觉得别人的看法特别有帮助。

It causes you to view other people's perspectives as incredibly helpful.

说到底，这是一种身份认知上的转变。

Again, it's that sort of identity shift around it.

所以如果你能做到这一点，比如先想清楚：这个决定可能带来哪些结果。

So if you can do that, if you can sort of get, okay, well, here's what I think the outcomes of this decision might be.

然后估算一下这些结果发生的概率有多大。

Here are the probabilities that I think that those might occur with.

在这个过程中，一定要把不同意见也充分纳入进来。

And then in that process, make sure that you're really wrapping in the dissenting voices.

这一点特别关键。

And this is very important.

而且实现的方式有很多。

And you can do that in a variety of ways.

比如你可以搞个‘红队’和‘蓝队’。

One is that you can do, you know, you can create red team, blue team.

就是专门组织一群人，任务就是挑现在主流观点的毛病。

So you just create a team of people who are supposed to argue against, you know, what the prevailing opinion is.

如果房间里有人对某个结果的概率看法截然不同，那就逼他们换立场。

If you have people in the room who really disagree on what the probability of a particular outcome is, which will happen, force them to change sides.