#70 Scott Adams: Avoiding Loserthink

一般的艺术家会说，我创作了一件了不起的作品。

A typical artist says, I've made this great art.

如果你不喜欢，那肯定是你有问题。

If you don't like it, well, there's something wrong with you.

艺术这行，往往带着点自负。

There's sort of an ego that comes with art.

但我没有那种艺术家的自负，因为我走的是另一条路。

But I lacked that type of artistic ego because I came from a different path.

我以前是个商人。

I was a business person.

艺术对我来说，只是我想尝试的一件事。

Art was a thing I was trying to do.

欢迎来到《知识项目》，这是 Shane Parrish 主持的深度对话节目。

Welcome to the Knowledge Project, a long form conversation hosted by Shane Parrish.

我们的目标很简单：每次对话都能学到新东西，让自己比昨天更聪明一点。

Our goal is simple, to learn something new in every conversation that makes us a little bit smarter than yesterday.

更多关于本节目和往期内容，请访问 fs.blog/podcast。

You can learn more about the show and find past episodes at fs.blog/podcast.

《知识项目》是法纳姆街网站的一部分，该网站致力于掌握他人已验证的智慧精华。

The Knowledge Project is a part of Farnam Street, a website dedicated to mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.

法纳姆街每周日都会推出一份名为《Brain Food》的简报。

Farnam Street puts together a weekly newsletter called Brain Food that comes out every Sunday.

和这个播客一样，它信息密度高、历久弥新，能拓展你的思维。

Much like this podcast, it's high signal, timeless, and mind expanding.

想了解你错过的精彩内容，请访问 fs.blog/newsletter。

Read what you're missing at fs.blog/newsletter.

今天，我对话的是《迪尔伯特》漫画的创作者、《loserthink》一书的作者斯科特·亚当斯。

Today, I'm speaking with Scott Adams, creator of the Dilbert comic strip and the author of loserthink.

我们聊了聊《迪尔伯特》是怎么诞生的，以及为什么仅仅加了一个邮箱地址，就让它成了全球最受欢迎的漫画之一。

We explore how Dilbert came to be and why a simple change, such as adding an email address, turned it into one of the most popular comics in the world.

我们深入探讨了说服力，花了大量时间讨论能帮助你更好思考的认知工具和技巧，包括如何应对批评。

We dive into persuasion and spend a lot of time on cognitive tools and tricks that can help us think better, including how to deal with critics.

批评者。

Critics.

现在该好好听、好好学了。

It's time to listen and learn.

斯科特，很高兴你能来参加这个节目。

Scott, I'm so glad to have you on the show.

谢谢你能邀请我。

Well, for having me.

我准备这次访谈的时候，注意到你曾经在和尼瓦尔的对话中问他，如果让他自己做介绍，他会怎么说。

As I was prepping for this, I noticed in one of your interviews with Nival, you asked him if he was gonna give his own introduction, what would it be?

我现在想把这个问题反过来问你。

And I'm gonna flip that around on you.

如果你要给自己做个介绍，你会怎么说？

If you were gonna give your own introduction, what would it be?

我会说，我是《呆伯特》漫画的创作者，也是一名作者。

I would say I'm the creator of the Dilbert comic strip, an author.

最近我写了很多关于影响力、说服力和政治的内容。

And recently I've been writing a lot about influence and persuasion and politics.

我特别想深入聊聊影响力和说服力。

I really want to deep dive into influence and persuasion.

政治部分我们可以稍微避一避，但大家最熟悉的还是你的《呆伯特》漫画。

Maybe we can avoid a little bit of the politics, but you're most famously known for Dilbert obviously.

这个漫画是怎么诞生的？

How did that come to be?

我当时在做普通白领的工作。

Well I was working my cubicle job.

我先在一家大银行上班，后来去了当地的电信公司。

I worked for a big bank and then later for the local phone company.

我的职业发展一直卡住了，因为两家公司的上司都直接告诉我：现在不能提拔白人男性了，因为我们 Diversity 不够，刚惹上麻烦。

And my careers were stalling, because my bosses in both cases, they called me and said, you know, we can't really promote white males anymore, because we don't have enough diversity and we just got in trouble.

他们跟我说这话的时候，是直截了当说的，我就干脆离开了银行。

So I left the bank when they told me that, and they told me that directly, by the way.

我讲这个故事的时候，别人总说：你这是在揣测言外之意。

When I tell this story, people say, well, you're reading between the lines.

不，他们是直接这么说的。

No, they said that directly.

我们不能提拔你，因为你是个白人男性，而且我们之前管理层全是白人男性，这事被曝光了，搞得我们很被动。

We can't promote you because you're white and male, And we got caught with our pants down having basically 100% white male management.

他们想纠正这个问题，我挺支持的，但这对我的职业发展可没好处。

So they were trying to correct it, which I applaud, but it wasn't good for my career.

于是我离开了银行，去了电话公司，走上管理岗位，一开始干得挺顺的。

So I left the bank, went to the phone company, got on the management track, was doing great.

结果有一天，我老板把我叫进去，说了和之前一模一样的一番话。

And one day my boss called me in and gave me the identical speech.

我就问：那我得等多久，才能轮到像我这样背景的人被提拔呢？

And so I asked, well, how long do I have to wait before that situation changes and someone who has my DNA could be promoted at this company?

他们答不上来，因为要花两百年才能走到今天这一步。

And they couldn't tell me because it took two hundred years to get where they were.

要花多久才能扭转这种情况？

How long would it take to undo it?

于是我开始寻找公司体制之外的事情来做。

So I started looking for something to do outside of the corporate world.

我想，我一直都想当个漫画家。

I thought, you know, I always wanted to be a cartoonist.

那是小时候的梦想，但从来没认真去追求过。

It was a early childhood ambition that I never really pursued.

我就想，不如试试看，能不能真的当上漫画家。

And I thought, well, let's see if I can figure out how to be a cartoonist.

于是我就这么说了。

So I said about that.

你想听多少细节，我都可以告诉你。

I could give you as much details you're willing to listen to.

细节越多越好。

More detail is better.

关键的突破是我想着要当漫画家，但完全不知道该怎么做。

The breakthrough was I was thinking about becoming a cartoonist, didn't know how.

不知道从哪儿开始，不知道该找谁聊，什么都不知道。

Didn't know where to start, didn't know who to talk to, didn't know anything.

那时候还没互联网。

And this was pre internet.

没互联网的时候，想查点信息特别难。

But pre internet you couldn't always find out information, it was sort of hard.

有一天，我正琢磨怎么当漫画家，随手打开电视换台，结果正好播着一档教人怎么当漫画家的节目。

And one day when I was thinking about how do I become a cartoonist, I turned on the television and I was just flipping through the channels and there happened to be a TV show about how to become a cartoonist.

我几乎错过了整期节目，但最后几分钟大概猜出了内容。

And I missed almost the entire show, but I could tell what it must have been about by the closing minutes.

片尾字幕滚动的时候，我赶紧抓过纸笔，记下了主持人的名字和播出地点。

And as the credits were rolling by, the closing credits, I quickly grabbed a notepad and wrote down the name of the host and where they were broadcasting from.

我写了封信——那时候还没电子邮件，那是很久以前的事了——给节目主持人寄了封信，说：我错过了您的节目，但我特别想当漫画家。

And I wrote a letter, and this is before email, that's how long ago it was, and wrote a letter to the host of the show and said, I missed your show, but I'd like to become a cartoonist.

你能给我一些建议吗？

Can you give me some tips?

几周后，我收到了那位节目主持人手写的两页信。

And a few weeks later, I get a handwritten two page letter from the host of the show.

他叫杰克·卡西迪，现在还活着。

His name is Jack Cassidy, still alive.

他告诉我该买哪本书、该准备哪些材料。

And he told me what book to buy, what materials to get.

接着，他给了我一些建议。

And then he gave me this advice.

他说，这行竞争很激烈，你会收到很多拒绝，但千万别放弃。

He said, it's a very competitive industry, you'll get a lot of rejections, but don't give up.

我当时就想，太好了，我知道该怎么做了。

So I thought, oh, good, I know exactly what to do.

我买了他推荐的那本书，里面讲了该把作品寄到哪里，以及该用什么材料、怎么呈现。

I bought the book he recommended, which tells you where to send your samples and what they should look like in terms of the materials.

我买了他推荐的纸和笔，挑了自己最得意的几幅漫画，寄给了那些大杂志，比如《花花公子》《纽约客》这类买漫画的刊物。

Bought the paper and the pens he recommended, put together some of my finest comics and sent them off to the major magazines, know, Playboy, New Yorker, people who buy comics.

结果所有的漫画都被退回来了。

And all of my comics were rejected.

等所有退稿都收到后，我想，算了，我已经尽力了。

And once I had all the rejections in, I thought, well, you know, I did what I could.

我拼了全力，倾注了全部心血，但还是没成功。

I tried hard, I put my full heart into it, didn't work out.

但我并不后悔，因为我确实尽了最大的努力。

And I was okay with that because I put a full effort into it.

于是我收拾好所有材料，塞进衣柜，就再也没碰过。

So I collected up all my materials and I put them in the closet and I just forgot about it.

一年后，我打开信箱，发现有一封来自杰克·卡西迪的信，就是当初给我建议的那位漫画家。

A year goes by and I go into my mailbox and there's a letter there from Jack Cassidy, the cartoonist who gave me the original advice.

我甚至都没来得及谢他，而那封信已经过去整整一年了。

And I hadn't even thanked him for his advice, So it had been a year that had gone by since his first letter.

所以一年后又收到一封信，这事儿挺奇怪的。

So it was kind of weird that there would be a second letter a year later.

我打开一看，他说他在整理办公室，翻出了我一年前寄给他的那些作品，堆在一堆里，他写信只是想确认我有没有放弃。

I opened it up and it said he was cleaning his office, and he came upon my samples I'd sent him a year earlier, in a big pile, and he said he was just writing to make sure that I hadn't given up.

他写信就为了这一个原因。

And that was the only reason he wrote.

他写信就为了这一个原因，可我已经放弃了。

It was the only reason he wrote, and I had given up.

我当时想，也许他看出了那些拒绝我的编辑们没看出来的东西。

And I thought, well, maybe he sees something that these other editors of these magazines that rejected me, maybe they didn't see it.

他是个专业的漫画家，我想，也许我自己也没看出来。

He's a professional cartoonist, and I thought maybe I don't see it either.

也许他发现了某种说不清的特别之处。

Maybe he sees something there, some X factor that's a bit invisible.

于是我重新翻出那些作品，心想，与其被普通杂志拒之门外，不如干脆瞄准报业 syndicate，争取当个连环漫画家。

So I got my materials out and I thought, well, I'll raise my sights rather than being rejected by mere magazines, I'll try to become a syndicated cartoonist, meaning that you make a deal with a cartoon syndicate.

于是我整理了一些漫画草稿，那是《呆伯特》的雏形，画的都是我同事的日常，寄给了几家主要的漫画 syndicate，结果都被退回来了。

So, put together some comics that were the prototype for Dilbert, they were based on people I worked with, and sent them off to the major cartoon syndication companies, rejections.

我以为自己已经试遍了所有可能，就对自己说：好吧，这已经是第二次了。

And when I thought I had them all, I said, well, now I've tried twice.

但我心里还是挺踏实的，因为这两次我都尽了全力。

And I still felt good about it because I put good effort into it both times.

于是我又把所有绘画工具收起来，塞进壁橱，彻底扔到脑后了。

So I collected up all my art supplies once again, and put them in my closet, and forgot about it.

几个月后，我接到一个电话，是个女人打来的，说她在一家我从没听说过的公司工作，叫联合媒体。

A few months go by and I get a call from a woman who said she worked for some company I'd never heard of, some company called United Media.

她说自己看过我的作品，可我根本想不起来什么时候寄过给这家公司。

And she said she'd seen my samples and I didn't really know how cause I hadn't sent my samples to anybody with that name.

她告诉我，想跟我签合同，让我成为签约漫画家。

And she said she wanted to offer me a contract to be a syndicated cartoonist.

我当时有点警惕，毕竟是个陌生人突然打到我家电话，开口就要给我世界上每个人最想要的东西。

Now, I'm a little wary when I get this offer, because it's just a stranger cold calling me, it seemed like on my home phone, and she's going to offer me the most valuable thing anybody would ever want in the world.

这感觉就像中了彩票，尤其是当你真的拿到一份正式的连载合同的时候。

It's like winning the lottery if you could actually get a real syndication contract.

但我从来没听说过她，也没听说过这家公司，所以我有点谨慎。

But I'd never heard of her, this company, so I was a little cautious.

我跟她说，谢谢你的邀请，但我确实需要看看一些参考资料。

And I said, You know, I'm flattered by your offer, but I'd really need to see some kind of references.

你有没有合作过的漫画家或者漫画作品可以推荐？

Is there any cartoonist or cartoon you've worked with before?

你们公司有没有刊登过任何作品，哪怕是宣传册、广告，什么都行？

Anything that got published through you at all, a pamphlet, an ad, anything?

电话那头沉默了好一会儿，然后她说：对，我们代理《花生》《加菲猫》和《马马杜克》。

And there's this long pause and then she says, Yeah, we handle Peanuts and Garfield Marmaduke.

她手里还有大概十二个其他作品。

She had about 12 more on the list.

那一刻我才意识到，自己正面临一个巨大的机会，同时也意识到自己的谈判地位其实有点被动，因为我根本不懂行。

And that was when I realized that something big was happening, and also that my negotiating position had been somewhat compromised at that point, because I didn't know what I was talking about.

后来我才明白，他们其实是当初我寄作品样本的那家公司的母公司，我只是没认出他们的公司名字而已。

It turns out that they were the parent company, the corporate parent of the entity that I had sent my samples to, So I just didn't recognize the corporate name.

而且他们是全球最大的一家。

And they were the biggest in the world.

于是他们给了我一份合同，我的事业就是从那儿开始的。

And so they offered me a contract and that's where it all started.

这真是个了不起的故事。

That's an incredible story.

你觉得是什么

What do

让《呆伯特》这么成功？

you think made Dilbert so successful?

嗯，是多种因素共同作用的结果。

Well, was a combination of things.

最大的转折点可能是，头几年它根本没什么起色。

Probably the biggest change, the thing that made it take off, is that after the first few years, it really wasn't getting any traction at all.

它就躺在几家报纸上，没几家刊登，一点起色都没有。

It just laid there in a few newspapers, not many, it wasn't growing.

你的发行公司，他们的商业模式要求他们对新推出的漫画投入大量精力。

And your syndication company, their business model requires them to spend a lot of attention on whatever the new comic is that they're launching.

但等他们花了一两年时间后，如果上一个漫画还没自己火起来，就得转去推下一个了。

But then after they've spent, you know, a year or two of that, they need to move to the next one, if the last one's not taking off on its own.

所以情况就是这样。

So that's what happened.

我就这么被撂在一边了，另一个眼看要黄的漫画。

And I was just sort of stranded, you know, another comic that wasn't going to make it.

于是我只能靠自己了。

So I was on my own.

但就在这时，运气来了。

But that's when luck intervened.

我那时候还在上班。

I still had my day job.

我当时在电话公司上班。

I was working at the phone company.

我在技术实验室工作，其中一个实验室，那时候我们已经有电子邮件了，别人还没有。

I was working in the technology lab or one of them, and we had email before other people had email.

所以，在普通人还不知道电子邮件是什么的时候，我们就已经用上了。

So before the average person even knew what email was, we had it.

我就想，要是我在漫画里印上我的邮箱地址，那岂不是能直接联系到我的读者？

And I thought, well, what happens if I started running my email address in the strip, and then I directly connect to my customers?

因为我拿了MBA学位，商学院的第一条规矩就是得听客户的，给客户他们想要的。

Because I had an MBA, and if you go to business school, rule number one is that you have to listen to the customer and you have to give them what they want.

这是商人会做的最基本的事，但这跟艺术家通常的做法正好相反。

But that's the basic thing that a business person will do, that's kind of the opposite of what an artist normally does.

典型的艺术家会说，我做出了这么棒的作品，你要是不喜欢，那说明你有问题。

A typical artist says, I've made this great art, if you don't like it, well, there's something wrong with you.

搞艺术往往带着点自我，但我没有那种艺术家的自负，因为我的路子不一样，我是个商人，艺术只是我想尝试的事。所以我在剧本里留了邮箱，结果每天收到几千封邮件，大家说的都是同一件事。

There's sort of an ego that comes with art, but I lacked that type of artistic ego because I came from a different path, I was a business person, art was a thing I was trying to do, and so I put my email address in the script and I got thousands of emails a day, and people consistently said the same thing.

他们说，挺喜欢你的漫画，不过当迪尔伯特在办公室出现的时候——其实早期这种情况很少见，他虽然有工作，但也没太专心——他们就说，当他跟老板和同事在一起的时候，我们特别喜欢。

They said, we like your cartoon a little bit, but when Dilbert is in the office, which was actually rare in the early days, he had a job but wasn't really focused on that, They would say, when he's in the office, and he's with his boss and his coworkers, we love that.

很多人说了几乎一模一样的话，所以我干脆把整部漫画的风格都改了，从原来那种讲一个养着会说话的狗的普通人的漫画，变成了职场漫画。做出这个改变之后，一切就都顺了。

And so many people said exactly the same thing, that I actually changed the entire nature of the strip from a generic strip about a guy with a talking dog to a workplace strip, and when I made that change, just everything happened after that.

这样大家很容易就能认出它，这就是那部职场漫画，主角是个格子间里的技术宅。后来正好赶上九十年代末的互联网热潮和裁员潮，我算是用了一种艺术家很少用的方式，去采纳读者的建议。

It became easy to identify, it's that workplace strip, he's a cubicle, he's a technology guy, and then of course the .com era came in the downsizing era of the 90s, I was taking the advice of the readers in a way that artists typically don't.

所以，我就像在说服学里说的那样，在努力跟上观众的节奏，基本上就是把他们给我的反馈，或者他们告诉我的需求，再回馈给他们。

So, I was trying to, as we say in Persuasion, pace the audience, basically give them back what they were giving me or telling me they want.

效果出奇地好，因为90年代那波大规模裁员潮来袭时，市面上其实并没有真正反映职场生活的漫画。

And that worked sensationally well, because there wasn't really a workplace comic strip when the big downsizing wave of the 90s came and all the big companies were doing massive layoffs.

各大新闻媒体都想报道这件事，但如果没有具体的人物，很难把故事讲得生动。

All the news business wanted to do stories about it, but you can't really do a proper story about something unless you have a face.

你得有个具体的人，有个鲜明的个性，才能让故事有血有肉。

You need a person, you need a personality to give a story a face.

但裁员这件事本身比较抽象，而迪尔伯特通过我的创作，成了那些即将被裁员的底层员工们的代言人。

But this downsizing thing was sort of a concept, And here was Dilbert, who became, through my work, sort of the face of the downtrodden, about to be downsized employee.

转眼间，它就登上了各大杂志的封面，到处被转发、剪下来、复印、传播。

And so the next thing you know, it's on the cover of major magazines, and it's just being forwarded and clipped and cut out and copied everywhere.

这才是真正的转折点：我把商业技能、MBA和经济学学位跟绘画结合起来，这种组合我称之为技能叠加——把互补的技能拼在一起，这才是关键所在。

That was the big change, is that I combined my business skills, my MBA, my degree in economics, with the art, and it was that combination, I call it a skill stack, when you put together skills that are complementary, And that's really what made the difference.

据我了解，最初的灵感其实来自你在办公室的经历。

I mean, originally the inspiration as I understand it was sort of like your experience in the office.

但随着时间推移，现在还是这样吗？

But as time went on, is that still the case?

那现在的灵感又来自哪里呢？

Or where does the inspiration come from now?

要画漫画或者写幽默内容，如果没有亲身经历，真的很难做到。

Well, it's very hard to make a comic or write humor about something you don't have some personal experience with.

正是这些亲身经历，才让你能表达得让人感同身受，别人一看就会说：对，我也经历过。

So it's that personal experience that allows you to express it in a way that other people who have had the same experience can say, yeah, I've been there.

虽然现在很多点子都来自还在办公室的人，但我一般不会用，除非我能从中认出自己的影子。

Even though at this point, a lot of the suggestions come from people who are still in the office, I tend not to use them unless I can recognize them.

所以如果我自己都提不起共鸣，我就没法相信别人会有反应。

So if I can't relate to it myself, I don't trust that other people will.

而且再说，我的生活本身就挺复杂的，主要是搞业务的。

But on top of that, my life is pretty complicated, and it's a business life.

《呆伯特》是个大工程，得开无数会、签合同，还得跟各种不同背景的人打交道。

Dilbert is a major enterprise, it requires meetings and contracts and lots of interaction with people of different skill sets and stuff.

我还参与了一个叫Wenhub的初创公司。

I'm also involved with a startup called Wenhub.

我们跟其他公司一样，也要开各种会。

We have meetings just like any company.

战略、预算，该有的全都有。

We have strategies and budgets and all that stuff.

所以我天天都泡在这种环境里。

So I'm always surrounded by it.

你在商学院还学过哪些东西，后来跟其他技能组合起来，当时没意识到，现在却觉得特别有用？

What else did you learn in business school that combined maybe into a skill stack that you didn't recognize at the time or you find incredibly valuable now?

作为像我这样有点名气和规模的漫画家，有一件挺奇怪的事——我所谓的‘有点名气’，其实就是说有一定影响力和规模了——我花大量时间跟律师、合同、保险这些商业事务打交道。我以前在电话公司上班时就是专业合同谈判员，后来在银行也干过一点类似的活。

Well, one of the weird things about being a cartoonist at my level, and when I say my level, just mean some amount of notoriety and scale, it's just a big enterprise, is I spent a ton of time with lawyers and contracts and insurance and just business y stuff, and I was a professional contract negotiator when I worked at the phone company, and also a little bit at the bank.

所以，如果你只是学过画画，没接触过商业，那当漫画家这一摊子事，你不是得外包出去，就是干脆不管了。

So just the business of being a cartoonist, if you only had art as training, you would have to hand off that stuff or you'd skip it.

有些人可能根本不知道该怎么进入这些领域。

Maybe in some cases you'd say, I don't know how to get into that.

而我呢，因为有丰富的商业经验，从预测未来的现金流优势，到保险、合同、租赁还是购买这些事，全都有涉猎。说起来挺巧的，我恰好对所有这些关键事务都特别熟悉。

So the fact that I have broad business experience that goes everything from figuring out the cash flow advantage in the future to insurance to contracts, leasing versus buying, mean, it's just coincidentally, I had a very deep experience in all the stuff that matters.

除此之外，我还接受过大量公开演讲、采访和媒体应对方面的训练。

Now on top of that, I also did a lot of training in public speaking and interviews and media training.

有一种叫‘媒体训练’的东西，专门教你像我现在这样说话：怎么在公众场合表达，才不会惹上官司、丢脸，或者被公司开除。

There's something called media training, where it trains you to do basically what I'm doing right now, which is how to speak in public in a way that you don't get sued or embarrassed or fired from your job.

这些全都是实实在在的技能。

Those are all skills.

表面上看，就是一个人在台上讲话，能有多难？但其实要把话说得好，背后有非常多讲究。

It looks like it's just somebody talking in public and how hard you're going to be, but there's a lot of skill that goes into doing it well.

这些技能对漫画家来说特别有用，因为人们本来就喜欢找漫画家聊天。

Those skills are really complimentary to cartoonists because as this is an example, people like to talk to cartoonists.

一旦漫画家有了点名气，媒体就总会想采访他们。

So the media is always interested in cartoonists once they reach a certain level of notoriety.

我很喜欢跟有趣的人聊天，你刚才提到的媒体培训，我特别好奇。

I love talking to interesting people and I'm curious about something you said there about the media training.

如果你能用两分钟给我们上一节媒体培训课，你会建议我们怎么做？

If you were to give a quick two minute class on media training, what would you advise us?

媒体培训里最重要的一课，说出来你可能不信——你根本不用回答所有问题。

The main thing that you learn in media training is almost laughable, which is you don't have to answer the questions.

你一听这话，可能想：那我直接说‘我不回答这个问题’？但这么干就错了。

Now, I say that, you're thinking, oh, I'll say I refuse to answer that question, but that's the wrong way to play it.

正确的做法是，你心里得有想说的内容，那就直接说你想说的，只要说得有趣，基本就没事。

The right way to play it is you probably have something you want to say, so say what you want to say, and as long as it's interesting, you're probably okay.

比如说，你上个全国电视节目，时长就四分钟，这种事我干过成百上千回了。记者问的问题，可能根本没看过你的书，也不了解你。以前我会说：‘我不太明白你的问题’，或者‘你能再说一遍吗？’——但这样太无趣了。现在我更聪明的做法是：既然他们想听点有意思的，我也想宣传书，那我就挑个观众爱听的点，顺带把书带出来，提问的人也不会介意，反正大家听得开心就行。

Because let's say you're on some four minute hit on a national TV show, which was sort of typical, I've done hundreds or thousands of them at this point, and they'll ask some questions that maybe shows they didn't read your book or they don't know who you are, and in the old days I would say, I don't understand the question, or could you restate that, and that is boring television, but the smarter technique is that you just say, okay, they want me to say something interesting, I want to talk about the book, so I'll say something the audience likes, the person who asks the question will be fine with it, it'll also mention the book.

现场应对时要考虑很多变量，得随机应变，但只要记住一条黄金法则——你不必直接回答那个问题，但你必须说得有趣，不然人家不会再请你来了。

There's a lot of variables you've got to put together on the fly and think on your feet, but as long as you remember the golden rule, you don't have to answer the exact question, you do have to be interesting, or you won't be invited back.

我说的不是那种政治立场上的回避，而是要真正吸引人、逗乐观众，同时又让采访者和你自己都舒服。

I'm not talking about a political answer where you're just saying some partisan thing, I'm saying just being interesting, entertaining the audience, and doing it in a way that's functional for both the interviewer and for whatever your interests are.

这就是最重要的原则。

That's the main rule.

还有一条规矩。

There's one other rule.

我不记得是别人告诉我的，还是我自己慢慢悟出来的。

I can't remember if they told me this, or it's just something I learned on my own.

采访中千万别讲容易被误解的话，因为几乎任何话都可能被曲解。

You never want to say something in an interview that could be easily misinterpreted, and almost anything can be misinterpreted.

我给你举个例子。

So I'll give you an example.

以前总有人问我小时候的事，那时候我爸妈都还在，后来他们都走了。我以前总老老实实回答，可你要知道，最尴尬的场面就是——某个记者听了你讲父母的事，然后用他的方式去描写你爸妈。

People would ask me about my early childhood when both my parents were alive, they both passed, and I would make the mistake of answering the questions, And man, if you want to find an awkward situation, wait until you see how some writer who heard your answer about your parents characterizes your parents.

你可不想看到这些被写出来，因为他们会按自己的想法来解读，而不是你本来的意思。

You don't want to see that in writing, because they're going to characterize it the way they want to, not the way you said it.

所以唯一能避免这种情况的方法，就是说得平淡无奇。

So the only way you can avoid that is by being bored.

所以我后来明白了，如果有人问我‘讲讲你的童年吧，斯科特’，我就说：‘挺普通的。’

So I learned eventually if somebody say, tell us about your childhood, Scott, I would say, you know, pretty normal.

有两个父母，再普通不过了。

Two parents, totally ordinary.

只要确保这些话别被写进文章里就行。

And you just make sure that doesn't make it in the story.

因为别人对你父母的任何描述，都不会有什么好结果。

Because anything that someone else says about what you said about your parents, nothing good is going to come from that.

他们只是想迎合自己想表达的那个故事罢了。

It'll just be to fit their narrative of what they sort of want to say.

你觉得别人对你最大的误解是什么？

What would you say are other people's biggest misconceptions of you?

目前来说，大家对我最大的误解就是以为有人听过或看过我说的话，并且准确理解了其中的意思。

Well, at the moment, biggest misconception of me is that somebody has seen or heard something I said and understood it correctly.

我平时的生活状态就是每天都被很多人批评。

My normal texture of my life is just lots of people criticizing me every day.

以前主要是关于漫画的讨论，后来我开始写博客，批评就集中在博客文章上，现在大部分都发生在推特上。

Before it was mostly about comics, then I started blogging, and it was about blog posts, now most of it's on Twitter.

多年来，我每天都在各种各样的事情上受到大量批评，涉及的方面可能有几百种。

And I'm just massively criticized every day about probably hundreds of different things over the years.

而且他们几乎都有一个共同点，就是都基于对我观点的歪曲或误解。

And one thing that they almost all have in common is that they're based on a misrepresentation or a misunderstanding of my opinion.

其实，很少有人能准确理解我的观点后再来批评我，大多数人之所以反应那么大，是因为他们误解了我说的话。

It's actually very rare for somebody to criticize my opinion as accurately understood, but mostly people get wound up and bent out of shape because they misinterpreted something I've said.

很多时候那只是个玩笑。

Often it's just a joke.

有时候我讲了个笑话，别人却断章取义，让它看起来完全不像玩笑，结果我莫名其妙就成了坏人，因为我说了些我根本没说过的事。

Sometimes I'll tell the joke and somebody will take that out of context, it doesn't look like a joke anymore, and then suddenly I'm Satan because I said something that I didn't actually say.

网上到现在还在传一些关于我的谣言，就在这一周我还能看到有人说我是否认大屠杀的人，根本不是。

The things that I've seen online about me that people still repeat, and I'm talking about up to this week, I've seen people say that I'm a holocaust denier, no.

说我是个白人至上主义者，也不是。

That I'm a white nationalist, no.

他们说的那些都不是我，那才是真正的我。

Whatever's not that is what I am.

说我歧视女性，也不是。

That I've got some problem with women, no.

人们批评我的那些事，绝大多数根本没有任何事实依据。

So most of the things that people criticize me for are literally things that aren't actually in evidence.

你一直都是这么抗压的吗？

Did you always have a thick skin?

你是怎么应对这些的？

Like how do you deal with this?

现在你处理批评的方式，跟当初刚开始收到这些反馈时相比，有哪些不一样的认识吗？

What do you know about sort of like handling criticism now that you didn't know when you first started getting this feedback or criticism, guess, if you will?

首先，进入公众视野的人，早就该明白这是工作的一部分。

Well, first of all, one does not go into this public life without knowing that's part of the job.

当《呆伯特》刚开始成功的时候，我就对自己立下了一个承诺。

I made a promise to myself early on when Dilbert started to be successful.

我告诉自己，我绝不会做个整天抱怨的人，因为这份工作本来就是全套的。

I said to myself, I'm not going be the guy who complains, because the package has all the parts.

全套包括我能赚大钱、出大名，拥有世上最好的工作。

So part of the package is I get to be rich and famous, and I have like greatest job ever.

但你要享受这些，就得接受另一面。

But I don't get that part without the other part.

没人能只挑好的要。

Nobody gets that.

这就像我想买一辆豪车，却又不想花一分钱。

It's like, I'd like an expensive car, but I don't want to pay any money for it.

在现实里，观众的批评就是这份工作的一部分。

In the real world, criticism from the audience is just part of the job.

所以一部分是明白这迟早会发生，另一部分是主动选择接受它——作为好与坏整体的一部分，因此发生任何事，我都能怪自己，因为这本来就是我选的。

So part of it is knowing it's coming, part of it is choosing it, as part of the package of goodness and badness, and so I can blame myself for what happens because it's part of a choice.

还有一部分是靠练习。

Some of it is practice.

被批评得越多，你就越习惯。

The more you get criticized, the more used to it you get.

就跟其他技能一样，练得多了自然就能进步。

It's like every other skill, you can get better at it.

还有一点是心态，就像我说的，听别人抱怨他们自己的误解，和因为自己说过的话被批评，感觉是完全不一样的。

Some of it is perspective, because as I said, listening to somebody criticize their own misunderstanding feels different than being criticized for something you did say.

这两种感受根本不一样。

They don't register the same.

所以我尽量把它们分开：如果是他们误解了，以为我在针对他们，其实他们生的只是自己误解的气。

And so I try to keep those separate, like, misunderstood something, they think they're mad at me, they're only mad at their own misunderstanding.

所以有时候我得应对这种情况，在社交媒体上回应一下什么的。

So sometimes I have to deal with that, respond to it on social media or whatever.

我会激烈回应，但主要是为了给看的人找点乐子，比如在推特上，我会尽量回得幽默点，当成内容的一部分来娱乐大家。

I fight back vigorously, but primarily for either entertainment of the people who are watching, if I do it on Twitter, for example, I try to do it in a witty way, part of the content that entertains.

另一部分是为了澄清事实。

Part of it is just to correct the record.

这样别人看到评论时，可能会看到我的回复，然后意识到：哦，原来这是一场误会。

So if anybody sees the comment, they might see my comment to the comment and say, Oh, okay, looks like a misunderstanding here.

是啊，我给你做调研的时候就很好奇，网上关于你的信息真的特别多。

Yeah, was curious about that when I was doing research for you, there's definitely a lot of information out there on you.

而且很多人对你的某些言论反应特别两极，有时候我真替你感到累。

And some of it is very polarizing with the way that people respond to some of your comments, which at times I felt for you.

我当时就想，你干嘛非得回这些？

And I was like, why are you replying to this?

你干嘛还要理会这些内容？

Why are you even sort of acknowledging some of this?

那就当乐子吧。

Well, enjoy it.

这也是其中一部分。

That's also part of it.

我在线上跟人互动，哪怕对方很讨厌，哪怕他们说过很多难听的话，我反而觉得挺有意思——像在玩游戏，比谁更厉害，也是一种练习。我真拿他们当练手的对象，因为如果有人提出某种批评，我基本能预料到将来会有人重复同样的说法。

I'm engaging with people online, even when they're unpleasant people, and even when they've said horrible things about me, I kind of like, I don't know, the game of it, the competition of it, the one upsmanship, some of it is practice, I literally use them for practice, because if somebody makes a certain kind of criticism, I can often count on other people in the future making a similar one.

所以我会试试看，能不能用一条回复直接堵住他们的嘴，或者有没有什么事实能让他们改变想法。

So I see if I can shut it down with a comment, I see if there's some fact that would change their mind.

这中间总带着点实验的性质。

So there's always an element of experimenting.

我之所以公开做这些实验，是因为我的推特粉丝，尤其是他们，特别喜欢看这场戏。

And I experiment in public because my followers on Twitter, especially, they like the show.

你有没有注意到这一点？

So I don't know if you've noticed this.

但每当我回应批评者时，总有很多只是旁观的粉丝鼓掌，他们纯粹是在看热闹。

But when I respond to critics, I'll often get a lot of applause from the people who are just following along, the people who are just watching the show.

你对说服力做过不少研究。

You've done a lot of work on persuasion.

接下来我们会聊到《输家思维》。

And we're going to get to loserthink in a second here.

不过说到说服，你是什么时候开始研究这个的？

But when it comes to persuasion, when did you start studying it?

是什么让你对这个感兴趣？你最初学的是什么？

What got you into it and like what did you study first?

你是怎么开始了解说服技巧的？就是那种主动去影响别人的艺术。

Like how did you go about learning about persuasion, like the active art of persuasion?

小时候，我妈常给我们讲她生我妹妹的故事。她说当时没打麻药，全靠家庭医生催眠，而她家那位医生正好也会催眠术。

When I was a kid, my mother used to tell us the story about how she delivered my younger sister, so she gave birth to my sister without any anesthesia, but she was hypnotized by her family doctor who was also a hypnotist.

她说自己当时是清醒的，而且一点疼都没感觉到。

She reports being awake and feeling no pain during childbirth.

不过后来年纪大了，我有点怀疑这故事是不是真的。你知道的，小时候妈妈说的话我们都信，但长大后再回想，就会想：她会不会记错了，其实当时打了针？

Now, as time went by, I'm not entirely sure that that story was true, you know, there are things your mother tells you that you believe when you're young, but when you get older, you say, you know, could she have forgotten that they gave her a shot?

所以我也说不清到底有多少是真的。

So I don't know how much was true.

但我知道，我的兴趣就是从这儿开始的。

But I can tell you that's where my interest started.

我可以告诉你，有足够的科学证据表明，确实有一部分人——虽然不是大多数——在催眠状态下真的感觉不到疼痛。

I can tell you that there's enough science to show that some people, and it wouldn't be most, but some people actually can not feel pain under hypnosis.

大约有百分之二十的人能出现我们所说的‘特殊现象’，催眠师用这个词指的是你能看到或感受到实际并不存在的东西。

Something like twenty percent of the public can have extraordinary phenomena, as we call it, hypnotists use that word phenomena, and it means that you can see or feel things that aren't actually there.

剩下那百分之八十的人虽然也能被催眠或影响，但通常是更缓慢、更微妙的改变，而不是真的看到不存在的事物。

The rest of the people, the eighty percent can also be influenced or hypnotized, but it's generally a longer term, more subtle kind of a shift, not actually seeing something that's not there.

这让我产生了兴趣，二十多岁的时候，有人跟我提了句催眠课，我也不记得当时怎么想的，就觉得，算了，把这个加进我的技能库里吧。

So that got me interested, and when I was in my 20s, somebody just said, Hey, about this hypnosis class, I don't remember what I was thinking, but I thought, well, I'll add that to my talent stack.

那时候我还没用过‘技能库’这种说法，但意思就是，不管将来做什么，我都想多学点互补的本事。

I didn't use those words back then, but it was essentially I was just adding talents that seemed complementary no matter what I was going to do.

我心里想，如果催眠真有点用处，哪怕只有一点点功能，那为什么不把它加进我所有的技能里呢？

And I thought to myself, well, if there's anything to this, if hypnosis is real, meaning it has any function whatsoever, how would you not want to add that to all of your other talents?

它可能是所有技能里最厉害的，有了它，其他技能都没那么重要了。

It could be like the king of all talents, the one that makes all the other ones a lot less even necessary.

至少会放大效果，是的。

It amplifies at least, yeah.

对，我早些时候听过一个说法，不确定是不是真的，但听起来挺有道理的——最成功的保险推销员其实是个专业催眠师。

Yeah, and I remember hearing early on in the process at the time, who knows if this is true, but it sounds like it's true, that the most successful insurance salesperson was also a professional hypnotist.

我当时就想，这可能是巧合，但也可能不是。

And I thought to myself, well, that could be a coincidence, but it could also not be a coincidence.

于是我报了名，参加了一个正规课程，每周晚上上几次课，最后拿到了催眠师认证。

So I signed up for a class, took a proper class with an instructor, we'd meet a few times a week at night, and got certified as a hypnotist.

当催眠师学到的一个关键点——可能是我一生中最重要的领悟，如果你只能选一样，那就是：催眠师看世界的方式是反着来的，但恰恰是反着来才更有效。

And one of the things you learn as a hypnotist, probably the most important thing I've learned maybe in life, you know, if you could pick one thing, that's like the most important thing you know, I learned that hypnotists see the world, I would say backwards, but that it works better backwards.

具体来说，如果你问普通人：你觉得人类怎么样？

Specifically, if you ask the average person, Hey, what do you think of human beings?

他们是理性的，还是非理性的？

Are they rational or irrational?

大多数人会说：我觉得人大多数时候都是理性的。

The average person would say, Well, I think people are rational most of the time.

不过确实，有10%的时候我们会变得有点疯狂或者情绪化，你知道的，有些话题大家都会稍微有点激动，但90%的时候我们还是理性的生物。

But sure, 10% of the time, we get a little crazy or emotional, you know, there's some topics that we're all a little crazy about, but 90% of the time we're these rational creatures.

催眠师会把观点反过来，他们会说，不，我们是自我合理化的人。

Hypnotists turn it around, and they say, No, we are rationalizers.

我们是那种因为自己都不理解的原因做决定，然后事后给自己找理由的人，所以我们是能理性10%时间的非理性物种，一直在进行自我合理化。

We are people who make decisions for reasons we don't understand, and then we explain them to ourselves after the fact, so that we are rationalizing irrational species who can be rational 10% of the time.

这就是所谓的逆向思维。

So that's the backwards part.

那剩下的10%是没有任何情绪色彩的内容。

The 10% being something that has no emotional content.

比如你核对账本，或者做点数学题之类的，对，那算是理性的。

You know, if you're balancing your checkbook or you're just doing some math or something, yeah, that's rational.

但在我们很多重大决定上，比如在哪里工作、怎么跟人相处、感情关系、政治立场等等，这些基本上全是不理性的。

But for a lot of our big decisions about where do you work, how do you relate to people, your relationships, politics, all that stuff, that's pretty much all irrational.

然后我们事后再去给它找个理由解释。

And then we explain it after the fact.

就拿政党来说吧，这就是个很好的例子。

As evidence of that, just look at the political parties.

这几年大家都有目共睹，我就不扯政治立场了，只想说明一个道理：只要你关注政治就会发现，不管发生什么事，人们就是会先站队。

If anybody's paying attention for the last several years, I won't get political, I'll just make this persuasion point, which is, it's pretty clear if you're watching politics, that it doesn't matter what happens, people just take sides.

这种局面已经明显到让人觉得有点可笑了。

You see it so clearly that it's laughable at this point.

这就是我生活的世界，人们并不理性，但我接受这个现实，把它当作我创作的基础画布。

That's the world that I live in, where people are not rational, but I accept that as the proper canvas which I'm working with to paint something.

如果你试图基于人们是理性的这一假设来构建有用的体系，你就会去设计系统、试图进行管理，但这根本行不通，因为人们其实并不理性。

If you try to paint anything useful, assuming that people are rational, you're going to build a system, you're going to try to manage to that, it just doesn't work, because people aren't.

但如果你换个思路，假设所有人都是非理性的，那会怎样呢？

But if you go the other way and say, what if I assume that everybody's just irrational?

你会做出哪些不同的改变？

What would you do differently?

而往往，这些不同的做法反而会更有效。

And often what you would do differently is far more effective.

假设大多数人很多时候都是非理性的，这是一种看世界很清晰的方式。

Assuming people are irrational most of the time is a very clear way to see the world.

你能举些例子吗？比如你是怎么因此采取不同做法的？

Can you give me some examples of how that plays out, like what you do differently?

我给你举个吸烟者的例子。

Let me give you an example of a cigarette smoker.

你肯定遇到过这种情况：一个人抽了三十年烟，当然知道科学说这有害健康，可就是戒不掉。

So you've probably had this experience, you talk to somebody who's been a smoker for thirty years, they of course know that all the science says that it's bad for them, but they can't quit.

有些吸烟者会说，我知道该戒，但我自制力差，就这么回事。

Some smokers will say, Yeah, I want to quit, but I'm weak, you know, I just don't have the willpower or something like that.

他们其实更接近真相。

And they're probably closer to some kind of truth.

但你也会碰到那种人，说他们奶奶活到九十五，天天吃牛排、喝威士忌，还一天一包万宝路。

But then you run into the people who say, my grandmother lived at 95, and she ate steak and drank whiskey and smoked a pack of Marlboro's every day.

这根本算不上思考。

Now, that's not really thinking.

这根本不讲道理。

That's not rational.

你经常会看到这种错误的思维方式，通常都是为了给别人的非理性行为找借口。

Now you see that kind of thinking, that faulty thinking all the time, and it's usually in the service of explaining why somebody is doing something irrational.

尤其是在政治领域，我不展开细说，但一再出现的情况是，不管自己阵营做了什么，哪怕再糟糕，你还是能接受，因为那是自己人。

And certainly in the realm of politics, again, without getting into any details, we see time and time again, that it doesn't matter what your team does, no matter how bad it is, you're still going to be okay with it, because it's your team.

而这一点，人们往往不愿意正视。

And that's the part that people don't admit to themselves.

他们会像被激怒的黄鼠狼一样拼命为己方的行为辩护，心里可能还觉得自己在讲道理，但实际上根本不是。

You know, they'll fight like wounded weasels to defend whatever their side did, and probably they're thinking internally that they're actually making some kind of a coherent argument, but they're typically not.

我的书《输家思维》主要讲的就是这些。

That's what my book Losersthink is mostly about.

那些自我安慰的借口和错误的思考方式，其实是可以学会避免的。

It's those rationalizations and bad thinking that you can learn to avoid.

书里有一处我觉得特别深刻，你说过——虽然我记不太准原话，大概是说，一个长期畅销的非虚构类作家，本质上其实是个小说家。

One of the things in that book that I thought was quite profound was that you said, I'm going get the quote wrong here because I'm paraphrasing, but a consistently best selling nonfiction author is really a fiction author.

你能详细说说吗？

Can you elaborate on that?

当时的背景是，我记得人们写非虚构作品时，以为自己在传达世界客观真实的面貌，但我们其实不具备这种能力。

Well, think the context was, if I recall, that people who are writing non fiction believe they're telling you what is objectively true in the world, but we don't have that capability.

我们都有一种错觉，觉得我们看到的世界就是唯一正确的版本，别人要是看法不同，那肯定是他们错了。

We all have this illusion that the version of the world we're seeing is the one, and that if anybody's got a different version, they must be wrong.

这大概是所有人最普遍的一种错觉。

It's sort of the most common illusion that we all have.

所以，如果你坐下来想写关于现实的东西，你根本做不到。

So, if you sit down and say, I'm going to write about reality, you don't have that capability.

不管你多努力，都不行，因为你拥有的只是对现实的过滤器。

It's not something you could do, no matter how hard you try, because all you have is a filter on reality.

我们还是把它叫做非虚构，因为作者并没有打算编故事，但大多数我们当成事实的东西，其实都是经过过滤的真相。

Now, we still label that as non fiction, because somebody is not trying to write fiction, But most of what we regard as fact is some kind of filtered truth.

我甚至敢说，就连我们对历史的理解——众所周知，胜利者才有资格书写历史。

I would go so far as to say that even our views of history, as is widely known, the winners get to write history.

但不仅如此，历史的书写还带着战略性和功能性目的。

But beyond that, it's not just that the winners write it, but that history is written for a strategic, functional purpose.

以美国为例，我们希望从小塑造年轻人的思想——这里说的‘塑造’是正面的意思，因为我想讲的是好事：让孩子们从小认同自己的国家，愿意为它付出，产生归属感，这都没错。

In the case of The United States, we would like to brainwash our youth, and I'm using brainwash in a positive sense here, because what I'm going to talk about is good, which is you socialize the children to support their country and fight for it and feel some sense of belonging to the country, that's all good.

但为了实现这个目标，我们难免对真相做了一些删减。

But probably in service of that, we depart from the truth a little bit.

我小时候学过的那些历史版本，现在回头一看，觉得也许我们没那么了不起，也许我们对待原住民的方式并不光彩，也许那些殖民者也没那么高尚。

So our versions of history that I learned when I was a kid, as an adult, I look back at them and I think, well, maybe we weren't so terrific, maybe we weren't so awesome in how we handled Native Americans, and maybe the colonists were not such nice people.

也许那些开国元勋们根本不该被歌颂，毕竟他们大多数都是奴隶主。

Maybe the founders of this country should not be celebrated, given that most of them were slave owners.

我们给孩子灌输的是经过净化的历史，目的是把他们培养成合格的公民，我觉得这种做法其实可以继续下去。

There's a sanitized version that we feed to children in the service of brainwashing them into good citizens, which I think we should probably continue doing.

我对这个没什么意见。

I don't have a problem with that.

我觉得每个国家都会这么做，而我们在这方面做得还算不错。

I think every country gets to brainwash their children, and we probably do a pretty good job of it.

那么，从避免你所说的‘输家思维’的角度来看，我们可以从中汲取哪些技能呢？

And then so what are the skills that we can take away from that in terms of avoiding what you call loserthink?

我的意思是，这本书里有像‘像心理学家一样思考’、‘像艺术家一样思考’、‘像历史学家一样思考’这样的章节。

I mean, the book, have chapters like think like a psychologist, think like an artist, think like a historian.

你能详细讲讲什么是‘输家思维’吗？我们该如何通过学习来克服它？

Can you expand on like what losers think is, how we can go about learning things to overcome it?

对，我把‘输家思维’定义为并非个人的某种特质。

Yeah, so I define loserthink not as a quality of the individual.

所以我说有人在使用‘失败者思维’时，并不是指他们是失败者，这跟个人无关。

So when I say somebody is using loserthink, I don't mean that they're a loser, it's not about the person.

这指的是这个人所经历的环境或遭遇。

It is about the experience which the person has been subjected to.

因为我学过经济学，正如我之前提到的，当我看到新闻里的情况时，我能用经济学视角去分析，这是别人可能做不到的。

So, since I have a degree in economics, as I mentioned, when I look at a situation in the news, I can apply that filter in a way that others perhaps could not.

不过，要掌握这些基础知识，并不需要花四年时间拿个经济学学位。

But it wouldn't take you four years to get a degree in economics to learn the basics.

同理，心理学、历史、艺术以及其他领域也是这样。

Likewise, for psychology, history, art, other things.

所以人们往往只带着自己因过往经历而自然形成的视角来看待问题。

So people tend to come at topics with just the filter that they just happen to have because of the life that they led.

我的建议是，你要至少去接触一下别人思考问题的基本思路。

What I recommend is that you expose yourself at least to the general ideas of how other people think.

比如，有人可能会问，某位总统的表现到底怎么样？

For example, if somebody were to say, How good is a certain president doing?

这不单指现任总统，我想说的是一个普遍的道理。

It doesn't have to be this president, I'd make a general point.

如果你问，某位总统X干得怎么样？

If you say, How good a president was President X?

普通人通常会说，我觉得他干得不错，或者觉得他干得一塌糊涂。

The average person will say, Well, I think that person did a good job, or that person did a terrible job.

这两种看法都挺荒谬的，而经济学家能告诉你为什么。

Those are both ridiculous opinions, and an economist would be in a position to tell you why.

因为你没有拿这位总统和其他在同一时期、同样环境下做同样工作的总统进行比较。

Because you haven't compared that president to another president who is doing the same job at the same time under the same circumstances.

没有这种比较——顺便说一句，任何科学家都知道要做比较，所以这不只是经济学家的专长，有些学科就很擅长做比较。

Without that comparison, which by the way, any scientist would know to compare, so it's not just economists, there are certain disciplines that are good at comparing things.

但大多数人从未学过比较事物的方法。

But most people have never learned the art of comparing things.

你唯一能判断一位总统干得好还是不好的方法，我是说，除非是叛国之类显而易见的事情，否则你根本没法确定，如果选的是民主党人，经济状况会不会变得更好。

The only way you could know if a president did a good or bad job, I mean, short of being treasonous or something ridiculous that's obvious on its face, But you really couldn't tell if a Democrat had been elected if the economy would be doing even better.

你根本没法确定，要是当时选的是另一位共和党人，我们是不是就会陷入战争。

You don't know if a different Republican had been elected, we'd be at war.

因为那些都只是假设。

Because those are hypotheticals.

对，所以根本没法把任何一位总统跟真正有意义的参照物进行比较。

Yeah, so there's no way to compare any President to anything that's actually meaningful.

所以，除非发生了一些像发动不必要的战争这样的大事，否则任何人对此持有强烈观点，都是没道理的。

So anybody who has a strong opinion on it, again, unless there's some major event starting a war that wasn't necessary, etc.