亚当·罗宾逊：为成功定位

国际象棋是一种我非常喜爱的精彩游戏。

Chess is an amazing game that I love.

重要的是要意识到自己擅长的局面。

One thing is to be aware of positions that you excel in.

我会从开局起就尽可能将棋局引导到我喜欢的局面。

I'll steer the game as much as I can from the very opening to positions that are of my liking.

因此，我们每个人都需要清楚自己擅长的情境，并努力将棋局或人生引导至这些情境中。

So it's important that each of us has an awareness of his or her, the situations that they excel in, and to steer the game or to steer their life to those situations.

欢迎来到知识项目，这是一档关于掌握他人已发现的精华，并将其洞见应用到你生活中的播客。

Welcome to the knowledge project, a podcast about mastering the best of what other people have already figured out so you can apply their insights into your life.

我是您的主持人，肖恩·帕里什。

I'm your host, Shane Parish.

如果你正在听这个，那你正在错过一些东西。

If you're listening to this, you're missing out.

如果你想在公开发布前获取播客内容、仅限会员的特别集、精心编辑的文本稿，或者只是想支持你喜爱的节目，你可以前往 fs.blog/membership 加入。

If you'd like access to the podcast before public release, special episodes that don't appear anywhere else, hand edited transcripts, or you just wanna support the show you love, you can join at fs.blog/membership.

查看节目说明以获取链接。

Check out the show notes for a link.

今天，我的嘉宾是亚当·罗宾逊。

Today, my guest is Adam Robinson.

亚当是一位美国教育家、自由撰稿人，也是美国国际象棋联合会终身大师。

Adam is an American educator, freelance author, and US Chess Federation life master.

他是普林斯顿评论的联合创始人，你可能听说过，目前他通过自己的公司罗宾逊全球战略，为世界上一些最大对冲基金的负责人提供全球宏观咨询。

He's the cofounder of the Princeton Review, which you probably heard of, and he currently works as a global macro adviser to the heads of some of the world's largest hedge funds through his company, Robinson Global Strategies.

亚当曾是节目的嘉宾，但我们进行了最引人入胜的对话，所以我每次和他交谈都感到非常愉快。

Adam is a previous guest on the show, but we have the most fascinating conversation, so I always really enjoy talking to him again.

在本集中，我们讨论了学习人工智能、ChatGPT、位置优势，以及大多数人对真实的他有哪些误解，还稍微谈到了一些投资。

In this episode, we discuss learning AI, chat GPT, positional advantage, and what most people get wrong about the real him and a little bit about investing.

现在，让我们开始聆听与学习。

It's time to listen and learn.

我想先提一个个人问题：大多数人对真实的你有什么误解？

I wanted to start with a bit of a personal question, which is, what do most people get wrong about the real you?

我认为他们会以为我总在脑子里想事情，但其实并不是。

I think they'll think that I'm in my head, but I'm actually not.

我大部分时间都是在身体里感受的。

I'm in my body most of the time.

即使在阅读、思考或计算时，我也是通过身体来处理信息的。

And I process information in my body, even when I'm reading, even when I'm thinking, even when I'm calculating.

我几乎是靠身体的感觉去找到答案，同时也能进行推理。

I kind of feel my way to answers and I'm able to reason.

我是字面意义上的，用身体来推理。

I mean that literally, reason with my body.

你能多讲讲这个吗？

Can you tell me more about that?

比如，你在哪里感受到它？

Like, where do you feel it?

你具体是怎么感觉的？

How do you feel?

乔治·索罗斯有句名言，当他的背部不适时，他就知道市场出了问题。

So George Soros famously said that when his back is acting up, that he knows something is wrong in markets.

就连爱因斯坦也写过，他提到过一种动觉意识。

And even Einstein wrote about having a he said his talked about a kinesthetic awareness.

如果你把人类视为动物（我们确实是），我们学会处理环境信息的能力远在希腊人发明逻辑学之前。

If you think about human beings as animals, which we are, we learned to process information in our environment way before the Greeks invented logic.

人类为了生存必须——说真的，动物为了生存也需要用身体处理信息。

And human beings to survive had to well, heck, animals to survive process information in their bodies.

而我们已经失去了这种能力。

And we've lost that.

我们已经丧失了用身体处理信息的能力。

We've lost the ability to process information in our body.

当我读到某个观点时，比如在你们的播客中读到文字稿，或是在阅读任何内容——一段引文或其他材料。

When I read an idea, say in one of your podcasts, right, I read a transcript, I'm reading something or reading a quote or reading anything.

我会停下来，用身体去消化理解它。

I'll pause and I'll process it in my body.

那么我说的处理是什么意思呢？

So what do I mean by processing?

我会停下来片刻，感受它在身体里的感觉。

I'll just stop for a moment and see how it feels in my body.

当我遇到一个新想法时，我会说，哦，这感觉像是——这不是有意识的思考，而是感觉像是与之相关的另一个想法。

When I encounter a new idea, I'll say, Oh, this feels like I mean, it's not a conscious thought, but this feels like another thought that's related to it.

因此我通过身体的感觉来探索世界，甚至是思想的世界。

And so I navigate the world, even of ideas through my felt sense in my body.

我很喜欢这个观点。

I like that.

这就像是你的潜意识在处理环境信息，发出连你自己都未察觉的信号，因为你的理性大脑还没完全启动。

It's almost like your subconscious is processing the environment giving signals that you're not even aware of because your rational brain hasn't quite kicked in yet.

完全正确。

Exactly right.

仔细想想，我们的物种在发明逻辑之前已经经历了亿万年的进化。

And you think about it, our species had many eons of evolution before we ever came up with logic.

你知道吗，朱利安·杰恩斯写过一本很棒的书，叫《二分心智崩溃中的意识起源》。

You know, there's that great book by Julian James, The Origins of Consciousness in the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind.

他的论点是，像你我所体验到的这种意识。

And his thesis was that consciousness such as you and I experience it.

比如现在，你我都知道自己正在参加一个播客对话。

Like right now, you and I are conscious that we are on a podcast talking to each other.

但当我走在街上，手里提着一个包时，我并不会意识到这个包的存在。

But if I'm walking down the street and I have a bag in my hand, I'm not conscious of the bag.

然而，我从未真正松开过这个包。

And yet at no point do I ever let the bag go.

我对这件事是无意识的。

I am unconscious of that.

每天通勤上班的人，或者任何开车超过半小时的人，都会经常经历这种突然的惊醒：你正开着车，突然间心想，天啊。

People who commute to work every day and anyone who's driven for more than about a half hour, You experience this jolt frequently where you're driving along and all of a sudden you go, Woah.

毫无征兆地，你意识到自己在过去的不知多少分钟里，对周围的一切都完全浑然不觉。

Like out of nowhere, you realize I've been totally oblivious to everything around me for the last who knows how many minutes.

而且你知道自己曾在红灯前停下过

And you know that you've stopped at lights.

你成功避开了其他车辆，没有发生碰撞

You've avoided, you know, bumping into other cars.

你完成了许多操作，但当时并未意识到这一点

You've done a lot of things, but you weren't aware of it.

这清楚地表明，我们在无意识状态下也能正常运作

So clearly we can function when we are not conscious.

朱利安·杰恩斯在其著作中提出的论点是，意识在人类历史和人类物种中出现得相当晚，大约只有两三千年前。

And Julian Jayne's thesis in his book is that consciousness is pretty darn recent in human history, in the human species, so only about two thousand, three thousand years ago.

他说，我意识到自己在说什么。

And he said, I realize what I am saying.

我的意思是，金字塔是由没有意识的人建造的，他们能够运作、发展数学，并能将数吨重的石块安置到位，但他们却没有意识——这是个非常大胆的论点。

I am saying that the pyramids were constructed by people who were not conscious, who were functioning, who developed mathematics and were able to put, you know, multi ton stone blocks into place and they weren't conscious, which is a wild thesis.

意识是否类似于我们如何在脑中用语言进行推理？

Is consciousness like sort of how we reason with words in our head?

什么？

What?

我想那就是他的观点。

I guess I'm That was his thesis.

聪明的见解，那正是他的观点。

Smart Adjance, that was exactly his thesis.

从某种意义上说，我们的大脑中产生了一种对话。

In a sense, a conversation arose in our brain.

当时我们并没有意识到这一点，他称之为二分心智的瓦解。

At the time we weren't aware of it, again, he calls it the breakdown of the bicameral mind.

二分意思是两个部分。

Bicameral is two chambers.

是的。

Yeah.

因此，左右脑的分裂，他说，对话由此产生，而我们并不知道它来自哪里。

And so the left and the right brain, the breakdown, he said conversation arose and we didn't know where it was coming from.

我们将其归因于神灵。

And we attributed it to the gods.

一定有什么东西在我们之外，这个声音。

That there must be something outside of us, this voice.

向我们传递信息。

Sending us the message.

对。

Right.

传递信息。

Sending a message.

没错。

Exactly.

这是一些人应该真正学会以实际方式去接触的东西。

That's something that people should really learn to get in touch with in a practical way.

你知道，我一开始想说的一件事，也是我非常欣赏你的地方之一，就是你一直在不断寻找有用的信息，真正有用的信息。

And, you know, one of the things I wanted to say at the beginning, one of the many things I love about you is that you are on a constant hunt, a safari, for usable information, really usable.

这里的一切，目标都是提供实用、有用的信息，而不是‘哦，这想法挺有趣’就完了。

Everything here, the goal is to provide practical, useful information, not, Oh, that's an interesting idea.

这里是谢恩和亚当的升级时间，对吧，关于如何提升自我。

This is the upgrade hour with Shane and Adam, right, and how to upgrade yourself.

如何

How do

我们运用它？

we use it?

是的，这对我来说是个关键问题。

Yeah, that's a key question for me.

你知道，我一直特别想和你聊聊，鉴于你对国际象棋和决策制定的了解，就是关于定位这个概念。

You know, one thing I've been dying to talk to you specifically about, given your knowledge of chess and decision making, is sort of the concept of positioning.

其实自从我们上次交谈后，我就一直在琢磨这个想法。

And I've been noodling on this idea, I think since we last spoke, actually.

已经过去好几年了。

It's been a number of years.

在我看来，世界上最好的决策者几乎总是从优势地位出发。

And it seems to me that the best decision makers in the world almost always operate from a position of strength.

这一点让我印象深刻，因为当你基于稳固的立场或基础行动时，几乎每一步都是正确的。

And that sort of strikes me because when you operate from a solid position or foundation, nearly every move you make is good.

所有决策都具有累积效应。

It's all accumulative.

而当你处于不利境地时，情况几乎总是会每况愈下。

Whereas when you operate from a poor position, things almost always go from bad to worse.

你觉得这一点有多重要？

To what extent do you feel that's important?

也许你可以和我一起探讨一下。

And maybe you could explore that with me.

和你一样，肖恩，我试图将世界的复杂性简化为可用的规则、准则、算法和启发法，以便在瞬息万变的现实中，我能记得该做什么而不是等到其他时候。

Like you, Shane, I try to reduce the world, the complexities of the world to usable little rules, maxims, algorithms, heuristics, so that in the real time flux of light, I remember to do something and not, you know, some other time.

所以我的原则之一就是：在困惑时绝不做决定。

So one of my principles is never make a decision when I'm confused.

这听起来似乎没什么大不了的，但我确实曾在困惑、疲惫或压力大的时候做出过决定。

That doesn't sound like such a big deal, but I have made decisions when I was confused or tired or stressed.

你和我会称之为愚蠢地带。

You and I would call it in the stupid zone.

在实时情境中记住这些事情很重要。

And it's important to remember those things in real time.

这又是一种情绪状态。

Again, a feeling state.

实际上，有一本关于情绪状态的好书，叫《恐惧的礼物》，作者是加文·德·贝克尔。

Actually, there's a great book on feeling states, The Gift of Fear, and it's written by a guy named Gavin De Becker.

这本书讲的是如何变得机警聪明。

It was a book on how to be street smart.

比如，你走在街上，假设是在你不熟悉的城市的夜晚。

So you're walking down the street, say it's at night in a city you don't really know.

你隐隐觉得有什么不对劲，这就是你的直觉在轻拍你的肩膀，提醒你：快离开这里。

You have a vague sense something is off and that's your intuition tapping you on the shoulder saying, Get out of here.

是的。

Yeah.

然而我们环顾四周，有意识的大脑会寻找原因：我为什么会有这种感觉？

And yet we look around, our conscious mind looks around for, Why am I feeling like this?

而我们却没有在当下采取行动。

And we don't act in the moment.

这确实非常关键。

And it's really key.

这里还有另一条格言，算是他观点的一个变奏。

Here's another maxim that I've, sort of a riffing on his point.

每当事情有点不对劲时，往往意味着非常不对劲。

Whenever things are a little strange, they're very strange.

如果某件事看起来稍有异常，那它实际上就是很异常。

If something seems a little bit off, it's really off.

我不会等待评估清楚状况再行动。

And I don't wait to figure out to assess the situation.

我会立即抽身离开。

I remove myself from it immediately.

所以我们这里谈论的是街头智慧。

So here we're talking about street smart.

同样的原则可以应用于投资、招聘决策、结婚，无论是什么情况。

The same principle can be applied to an investment or a hiring decision, getting married, whatever it is.

人生中的关键决策，我们通常理性地做出，但我们的身体却一直在向我们传递信息，而我们却忽视了。

The key decisions in life, we make them rationally, and yet our body is giving us information all the time that we ignore.

但我们每个人都没有训练过自己。

But we haven't trained ourselves, each of us, as individuals.

所以你，作为听众，在听谢恩和亚当讨论这些内容时，你身体处理信息的方式，以及你对世界、对他人的直觉洞察，会拥有与谢恩或亚当不同的表达方式。

So you, the listener, listening to Shane and Adam riff on this stuff, the way your body processes information and your intuitive insights about the world, about others, it's going to have a different vocabulary from Shane's or Adam's.

你必须学会这种表达。

And you have to learn that.

这是我一生中经历过的最非凡的经历之一。

One of the most extraordinary experiences I ever had in my entire life.

这件事大约发生在三十年前。

So this occurred about thirty years ago.

那是纽约的一个周日早上7点，我正在中央公园慢跑。

I'm in New York City, 07:00 in the morning on a Sunday, and I'm out jogging in Central Park.

外面有几个人，但不算多。

There are a few people out, but not that many.

我当时在靠近大都会博物馆的地方跑步，就在东区的大都会附近。

I'm running near the museum of the Metropolitan, near the Metropolitan on the East Side.

我正在跑步，突然之间我猛地一跳，横向跃出了大约10英尺，毫无预兆。

I'm running and all of a sudden I go, I jump and I leap laterally about 10 feet out of nowhere.

我的心怦怦直跳。

And my heart is pounding.

我当时心想：这到底是怎么回事？

I'm going, What the heck?

我有点尴尬。

I'm kind of embarrassed.

有谁见过我这样吗？

Has anyone seen me do that?

我正努力喘口气，眼睛向上扫视着河岸。

And I'm trying to catch my breath and my eye scans up the embankment.

河岸大约有15英尺高。

So the embankment is about 15 feet.

然后是一大片灌木丛，中央公园里到处都是茂密的灌木和植物。

And then there's a lot of a shrubbery, Central Park, full of dense shrubbery and stuff.

有一只蹲着的美洲狮。

There's a crouching mountain lion.

一只蹲着的美洲狮。

A crouching mountain lion.

但现在那是个雕像。

Now it's a statue.

但你可以自己查一下。

But you can look this up.

它就像这样弓着背，应该是为了隐藏自己。

It's like it's hunched like this about It's to meant to be hidden.

大多数人看到它时，会直接注意到它，但它是正对着的。

Now most people, they see it, they look at it and they spot it, but it's directly.

但我没有直接发现它。

But I didn't spot it directly.

它是通过我的余光进入视野的。

It came in through my peripheral vision.

所以我原始人的大脑告诉我：快离开这里。

So my caveman brain said, Get out of here.

那是我第一次——好吧，我之前也有过类似的体验，但这次真正体会到没有思想和语言的生活是怎样的。

And it was my first Well, I had another experience kind of like that, but of what it must have been like to live with no thoughts or words.

自我保护是一种强大的本能。

Self preservation is a powerful instinct.

是的。

Yeah.

但请注意，让我们远离‘本能’这个词，因为这确实是一种本能，当然，但当时我是在思考之前就已经行动了，我是被编程好的要这样反应。

But see, let's get away from the word instinct because it was a clear I mean, was an instinct, of course, but that I was acting and that I was programmed to act before I thought.

因为显然，如果你是个分析型的人，会问：我为什么会有这种感觉？

Because obviously if you were an analytic type and said, Why am I feeling that?

那你就会成为那只蹲伏的美洲豹的盘中餐。

You're that crouching mountain lion's lunch.

这就像是我们有默认设置一样。

It's like we have defaults.

是的。

Yeah.

甚至没有一毫秒的延迟。

There wasn't even a millisecond.

我直接跳了起来。

I just leapt.

尽管加文的书、德·贝克尔的书《恐惧的礼物》讲的是如何在街头保持警觉，但同样的直觉一直在向你提示环境中各种危险——无论是投资风险、人际关系风险还是合同风险，无论是什么，都不要忽视它。

Even though the book, Gavin's book, De Becker's book, The Gift of Fear, is about being street smart, well, that same intuition is speaking to you all the time about various dangers in your environment, whether they're investing dangers or relationship dangers or contractual dangers, whatever it is, and to not ignore that.

事实上，恰恰相反。

In fact, the opposite.

要真正精炼这种能力，把你的身体当作一个早期预警系统。

Really refine that, the instrument of your body as an early morning system.

我想回到国际象棋和定位的话题，探讨它们如何影响我们做出决策的能力——这些决策要么能积累成果，要么几乎能让一切归零。

I want to come back to sort of chess and positioning and how that affects our ability to make decisions that accumulate or multiply by zero almost.

国际象棋是我非常热爱的精彩游戏。

Chess is an amazing game that I love.

所以我要将国际象棋与扑克进行对比。

So I'm going to contrast chess with poker.

我们将讨论局势判断。

And we'll talk about positions.

如果谢恩和亚当在下国际象棋，我们能看清所有棋子。

If Shane and Adam are playing a game of chess, we see all the pieces.

这不像你背后藏着一枚棋子不让人看见。

It's not like you've got a piece behind your back that you're hiding.

你拥有完整的信息。

You have complete information.

完整的信息。

Complete information.

在我的计算中，我考虑到了自己可能出错的可能性。

In my calculus, I am taking into account the fact that I could be mistaken.

我可能会犯错，而且我会意识到这一点。

I can make a mistake and I would know it.

换句话说，如果你在推理中犯了错误或忽略了什么，根据定义，你是不会意识到的。

In other words, if you make a mistake in your reasoning or you overlook something, by definition, you're not aware of it.

但在扑克游戏中，我看不见你完整的手牌。

But in the game of poker, I don't see your full hand.

我甚至不知道我会拿到什么牌。

I don't even know the cards that I'm going to get.

所以我正在评估各种概率，对吧？

And so I'm assessing all kinds of probabilities, right?

除此之外，即使我掌握了所有牌局信息，我的判断也可能出错。

And then on top of that, even if I had all of the cards, I could also make an error in my judgment.

重要的是要清楚自己擅长的局面类型。

One thing is to be aware of positions that you excel in.

所以当我们讨论有利局面时，不妨深入探讨这个概念。

And so when you talk about good positions, let's talk about that notion.

因此即使你对国际象棋一无所知或知之甚少，作为听众需要明白：棋盘上有若干棋子，它们的布局被称为局面。

So even without knowing anything about chess or not much about chess, you as a listener, the chess board is some pieces are on the board and they're placed in an arrangement which is known as the position.

可以把它想象成足球场上球员的布阵，或者篮球场上中锋的位置安排。

Think of it as like on the football field with your players arranged or the basketball court, like, where's your center?

你知道，所有这些布局都很重要。

Where's your, you know, all of this.

而我，亚当，很清楚自己在某些特定阵型中表现得特别出色。

And I know, I, Adam, know that there are certain kinds of positions I do very well in.

我喜欢在战斗开始前把棋子都布置得恰到好处，明白吗？

I like kind of getting my pieces all arranged just so before the battle starts, right?

因此，有一些开局，比如任何看过《后翼弃兵》的人都知道。

And so there are certain openings, like anyone who's watched The Queen's Gambit.

《后翼弃兵》就是一个开局。

The Queen's Gambit is an opening.

所以，从《后翼弃兵》衍生出的局面，谢恩你可能喜欢，而我则纯粹因为审美原因不喜欢这些局面。

So the positions that arise from The Queen's Gambit, you Shane might like those positions and I add them just because of my aesthetically, I just don't like those positions.

或者我在这些局面中表现通常不太好。

Or I tend not to do well in those positions.

我会尽可能从开局起就把棋局引导到我喜欢的局面。

I'll steer the game as much as I can from the very opening to positions that are of my liking.

这也是每个人都应该培养的一项重要技能：在现实生活中，你可以称之为情境，你擅长哪些类型的情境？

And that also is a really important skill for anyone to develop, is in what kinds of positions in real life you could call them situations, right, do you tend to excel?

而哪些情境是你不擅长的？

And in which ones do you not?

比如，交易员可能会意识到，自己在开盘的第一个小时表现不佳。

A trader, for example, might know that a certain kind of I don't do well the opening hour.

我总是搞砸。

I'm always messed up.

或者我不喜欢处理美联储报告日，比如当FOMC即将发布声明的时候。

Or I don't like dealing with Fed report days, like, you know, when the FOMC is about to make an announcement.

在那些日子里，我不会去看市场。

I'm not going to look at the markets during those days.

所以我们学会了自己擅长的那些局面。

And so we learn the kinds of positions in which we excel.

我不认为有什么绝对的规则，因为我喜欢的这些局面，Shane，你可能会说，Adam，我一点都不喜欢这些局面。

And I don't think that there's any hard and fast rule because the ones that I like, Shane, you might go, Adam, I don't like any of those positions.

这些才是我喜欢的局面。

These are the positions I like.

所以每个人都很对，Shane，我们每个人都需要清楚地意识到自己擅长的那些情境，并引导自己的棋局或人生

So it's important that each of us you're exactly right, Shane each of us has an awareness of his or her, the situations that they excel in, and to steer the game or to steer their life

朝向这些情境。

to those situations.

而在扑克中，我认为不确定性更多，但你如何下注、如何安排这些赌注，会决定你处于更好的还是更差的位置。

And then with poker, I guess there's a lot more uncertainty, but then how you bet and how you place those bets leads you to a better or worse position.

你可能手握全世界最好的牌，但如果你已经没有筹码了，你就无法充分利用它，处境就会很糟糕。

You might have the best hand in the world, but if you have no chips left, you're in a bad position to take advantage of it.

人生有两种活法。

There's two ways to live your life.

一种是避免痛苦，另一种是追求快乐。

One of them is avoiding pain and the other is seeking pleasure.

你比任何人都更清楚，巴菲特投资的第一条准则：永远不要亏钱，对吧？

And you know better than anyone, Buffett's first rule of investing, never lose money, right?

第二条准则：永远不要忘记第一条。

Rule number two, never forget rule number one.

有人问我：但亚当，你说过在国际象棋中，菲舍尔总是为了赢而下，不介意输。

Someone asked me, But Adam, you said in chess, Fischer always played to win and didn't mind losing.

而在投资中，你却说：不要亏钱。

Versus investing, you say, Don't lose money.

原因如下。

And here's why.

在象棋比赛中，如果我下一轮输了，明天我依然是同一位棋手。

In a chess game, if I lose it the next round, tomorrow, I'm the same chess player.

没错。

Right.

但投资不同，如果我今天亏了钱，明天可用于投资的本金就变少了。

But investing, if I've lost money today, I have less money tomorrow to invest with.

很多人在投资中的问题是，他们学会成为一个还算不错的投资者——我指的是仅仅还算不错——需要一两年时间。

And the problem with a lot of people in investing is that they're learn to become a decent investor, I mean just decent, is a year or two.

那只是还算不错。

That's just decent.

你甚至还没进入预备队。

You're not even on the JV team yet.

而如果你在变得熟练之前犯了太多代价高昂的错误，等到你真的精通时，你已经没有资本了。

And if you've made too many costly mistakes by the time you become proficient and now you're really good, you got no capital left.

是的。

Yeah.

但扑克是一个多轮的游戏。

But poker is a game of many rounds.

每一轮我都在了解谢恩，你的各种小动作，而你也在了解我，我在了解手牌。

And each round I'm learning about Shane, you know, your tells, and you're learning about me, I'm learning about the hand.

这又是一个始终在计算概率的游戏。

And it's a game of, again, always playing the odds.

优秀的玩家会掌握下注的大小。

And the great players learn to, the size of your bets.

这非常重要。

That's really important.

这引出了另一个可以广泛应用于生活的投资概念，那就是信念水平。

Which comes up with another investing concept that can be applied broadly in life, which is the notion of your conviction level.

高信念水平就该下大注。

A high conviction level make a big bet.

所以最高信心、高信心、偏向高信心。

So highest conviction, high conviction, leaning high conviction.

我还没完全达到那个程度。

I'm not quite there yet.

我还需要再多一点信息。

I still need a little more.

根据你的信心水平来调整下注规模。

And to adjust your bet size to your conviction level.

我们来聊聊人工智能和ChatGPT。

Let's talk about AI and ChatGPT.

我很想听听你对最近这些发展的看法，你看到了什么，哪些让你担忧，哪些让你兴奋。

I'd love to hear your thoughts on all of these developments recently where you see and the hype maybe what scares you and what excites you.

我喜欢ChatGPT，但可能不是人们以为的那些原因。

Well, I love ChatGPT, but maybe not for the reasons people think.

所以我用它作为思维伙伴，帮助我提出更好的问题。

So I use it as a thought partner to help me ask better questions.

关键在于它并非能够回答问题。

The key thing is not that it can answer questions.

而是它给了我一个工具，让我能提出更好的问题——就像马友友能比你我更娴熟地在大提琴上演绎出美妙音乐一样。在行家手中，ChatGPT能发挥巨大作用，举个简单例子：假设我是个二手车销售员。

It's that it gives me a tool to ask even better questions in the same way that Yo Yo Ma can coax more beautiful music out of a cello than you or I could, and in the hands of a master, what you can do with ChatGPT, simple example, I'm a used car salesman.

我可以描述车辆然后问：人们会对这辆车提出哪些问题？

I could describe the car and say, What kinds of questions will people ask about that car?

它可能会给出一些回答，然后我会恍然大悟：哇，我差点忘了处理那个问题。

And might say something and go, Woah, woah, I would have forgotten to deal with that.

我必须对那个问题有个答案。

I have to have an answer to that question.

所以它能训练你。

So it can train you.

完全正确。

Exactly right.

别管训练ChatGPT了，这是在训练亚当。

Forget training ChatGPT, it's training Adam.

就像，哦，是的，它在训练那个，但我问问题的能力越来越强了，心想，对啊，就是这样。

Like, Oh yeah, it's training that, but I'm getting better and better at asking questions, going, Oh, that's right.

看待它的正确方式是，它是一个超级聪明、反应极快的研究助手。

The way to think about it, it's a super smart, lightning fast research assistant.

它并不会提出洞见。

It doesn't come up with insights.

它是一个非常出色的演绎分析工具，但还无法做出超越现有领域信息的逻辑跳跃。

It's a really good deductive analytic machine, but it's not yet capable of making logical leaps that aren't evident from the domain.

在你擅长的领域，它可能没那么有用，而且常常出错。

In areas where you're an expert, it's probably not that useful and it's often wrong.

但我不在乎。

Well, but I don't care.

即使它错了，它也会告诉我为什么会这么想。

Even when it's wrong, it tells me why would it have thought that.

对，没错。

Right, exactly.

对吧？

Right?

所以，我来给你讲个以前的有趣例子。

And so here, I'll give you a funny example from back in the day.

我当时正和我的商业伙伴约翰·卡茨曼争论。

I was arguing with my then business partner, John Katzman.

我们刚创办了普林斯顿评论。

We had just started the Princeton Review.

我们俩在争论是否应该在词汇表中包含定义。

We were debating the two of us whether we should include definitions in the vocabulary list.

约翰认为我们只应该列出单词，让学习者自己查词典并写下定义。

John was of the opinion that we should just list the words and they should look them up and write the definitions down.

我说：不，我们应该提供单词。

I said, No, we should provide the words.

抱歉，应该是提供定义。

Sorry, the definitions.

所以我们当时在争论这个问题，但我和他总是会测试一切。

So we were debating this, but he and I always tested everything.

这时有个女孩走过来，我至今还记得那天的情景。

And a girl walked up, I still remember the day.

所以词汇表里的一个词是‘autonomy’（自主权）。

So one of the words on word list was autonomy.

于是我指着列表上的这个词问她：‘你知道这个词是什么意思吗？’

So I pointed to the word on the list and I said, Do you know what that word means?

她回答：‘知道。’

And she said, Yes, I do.

我问：‘那它是什么意思？’

I said, What does it mean?

她说：‘这是研究人体的学科。’

She said, It's the study of the human body.

她把‘autonomy’误读成了‘anatomy’（解剖学）。

She misread autonomy with anatomy.

但这让我明白了一些事。

But that told me something.

即使在那里，尽管她错了，假设那是ChatGPT。

Even there, even though she was wrong, suppose that was chat GPT.

对。

Right.

我会说，哦，好吧。

I'd go, Oh, okay.

它会混淆看起来相似的词。

It confuses words that look the same.

对吧？

Right?

现在这是一个愚蠢的例子。

Now that's a silly example.

现在学校里最关键的是，这真的非常重要，是未来的钥匙，是所有事情的钥匙，不仅仅是学校，而是当你拥有能回答任何问题的机器时，优势在于谁提出了最好的问题。

The key thing in school right now, this is really important, it's the key to the future, it's the key for everything, not just school, is when you've got machines that can answer anything, the edge is who asked the best questions.

这很关键。

That's key.

那么我们该如何

So how do we

学会提出更好的问题呢？

learn how to ask better questions then?

对。

Right.

好吧，我们稍后再回来看这个问题。

Well, let's come back to that a sec.

我以前给学生做的一个练习是，我会给他们一个这样的陈述。

An exercise I used to do with students is I'd give them a statement like this.

秘鲁出口铜。

Peru exports copper.

这只是一个事实性陈述。

So that's a factoid.

对吧？

Right?

然后我会说：你们有三分钟时间，基于这个事实提出尽可能多的问题。

And I'd say, you've got three minutes to come up with as many questions as you can based on that fact.

那么谁进口铜呢？

So who imports copper?

秘鲁还出口什么？

What else does Peru export?

秘鲁进口什么？

What does Peru import?

我把这个问题交给ChatGPT，它立刻就提出了一些非常令人印象深刻的问题，比如秘鲁出口的趋势是什么？

And I gave it to ChatGPT and boom, it came up with some really impressive questions like what's the trend of Peru's exports?

所有这些都属于常规见解。

All of these things were conventional insights.

它从未提出过让我惊叹'天啊，真不知道它是如何做到这一点'的问题或答案。

At no point did it come up with a question or an answer that I went, Oh my gosh, I don't see how it did that.

所以我说，ChatGPT 是一个聪明的研究助手，它会去网络或图书馆查找信息，为你提供主流观点。

So what ChatGPT, I said it's a smart research assistant that's going to go out to the web or the library as it were, and do the research and give you the conventional wisdom.

是的。

Yes.

对吧？

Right?

这就是它的功能。

That's what it does.

它能提炼出主流观点。

It boils down the conventional wisdom.

它不会产生非传统的想法。

It's not going to think unconventional.

我了解它的局限性，但它仍然能启发我思考：哦，对了。

I know its limitations and it still prompts me to think, Oh, right.

我忘了问那个问题。

I forgot to ask that.

或者，我最好把这个问题再完善一下。

Or, I better refine that question.

就连你这个问题本身——如何提出更好的问题——我都可能陷入自我指涉。

Even your question itself, how to ask better questions, I can get all self referential.

我们说的‘更好’是什么意思？

What do we mean by better?

对吧？

Right?

什么样的问题才算更好？

What's a better question?

一个好的问题是能引发其他问题的问题。

A good question is one that prompts other questions.

或者，一个好的问题是提供另一种思考角度的问题。

Or a good question is one here's another way to come at it.

一个好的问题是能增加我选择范围的问题。

A good question is one that increases the choices that I have.

这又回到了定位问题，对吧？

That goes back to positioning, right?

因为如果你处于有利位置，你的选择会比处于不利位置时多得多。

Because if you're in a good position, you have more choices than if you're in a bad position.

完全正确。

Exactly right.

你总是希望最大化自己拥有的选择数量。

You want to maximize the number of choices that you've got always.

在某个时刻，你必须收敛思路并做出决定，排除所有选项。

Now at a certain point, you've got to rein that in and come to a decision and rule out all the choices.

但你至少希望初步看到各种选择，只要不被它们压垮。

But you want to see the choices, at least initially, as long as you're not overwhelmed by them.

每当你发现自己问‘我该如何X？’时

Whenever you find yourself asking, How do I X?

我怎样才能快速到达伦敦？

How do I get to London quickly?

或者我该如何加强营销？

Or How do I increase marketing?

我该如何提升销量，同时提高所售商品的价格？

How do I increase sales and also increase the sales price of the item I'm selling?

我该怎么做？

How do I do that?

而不是问，我该如何？

Instead of asking, how do I?

问下面这个问题。

Ask the following question.

谁知道怎么做那件事？

Who knows how to do whatever that is?

这样一来，我就不用绞尽脑汁思考我（亚当）该怎么做了，而是突然有了很多选择。

So all of a sudden, instead of my trying to figure out how I, Adam, ought to do it, I've got lots of choices.

现在的问题是：我得找个懂这个的人。

Now it's, Okay, I've got to find someone who knows that.

所以这是一个例子。

So that's an example.

我经常去谷歌，进行我所谓的谷歌实验。

I often go to Google and run what I call Google experiments.

所以我会输入一个问题的开头，看看它会自动建议什么，对吧？

So I will type in the beginning of a question and see what it auto suggests, right?

它会自动补全，对吧？

It auto completes, right?

如果你输入‘我怎样才能学会’

If you type in, how can I learn to?

你会看到互联网上人们问得最多的问题是：我怎样才能学会爱自己？

You'll see the number one question people ask on the internet is how can I learn to love myself?

这里有个更好的问题，因为我们正在讨论如何让问题变得更好。

Here's a better question because we're talking about making questions better.

比‘我怎样才能学会爱自己’更好的问题是：我怎样才能学会去爱？

Here's a better question than how can I learn to love myself is how can I learn to love?

让我们把你自己和所有相关的负面评判都去掉。

Let's remove yourself and all bad judgment around it.

好吧，我该如何学习？

Okay, how can I learn?

爱意味着什么？

What does loving mean?

去爱意味着什么？

What does that mean to love?

让我们暂时把这从我自己身上抽离出来。

Let's take it away from myself for the moment.

顺便说一句，那不是我的问题。

By the way, that's not my question.

那是谷歌搜索出来的结果，对吧？

It's what Google pulls up, right?

所以，看看人们会提出什么样的问题，这是一个非常重要的练习。但苏格拉底方法的问题在于，苏格拉底这位老师承担了所有的工作。

So to see the kinds of questions that people come up with, it's a really important exercise that The problem with the Socratic method is that Socrates, the teacher's doing all the work.