布鲁斯·弗拉特谈价值、纪律与持久性

所以我认为，这三者叠加在世界上最大的GDP之一之上，再加上企业家阶层的兴起和制造业部分回流——无论整体是大量还是部分回流，都将对经济增长产生积极影响。

And so I think those three those three things are going to make on top of one of the greatest GDPs in the world, an entrepreneurial class manufacturing moving back, at least to some extent, a lot or to some extent on balance is going to be positive for for growth.

美国未来的发展前景相当不错。

The US has a pretty good runway going forward.

听起来你觉得我们在生产力上正处在一个转折点，一些失业将因制造业回流美国而得到抵消。

It sounds like you think we're at an inflection point for productivity and some of the job losses will be offset by sort of the remanufacturing coming back to The US.

你认为我们在这个趋势中处于哪个阶段？我是说，这个‘游戏’进行到哪儿了？

Where do you think we are in that trend, like that game, I guess.

任何事情都不可能直线发展。

There is no straight line in anything.

每个人总是认为，只要有人说了什么，明天早上就会发生。

Everyone always thinks that somebody says something and it's going to happen tomorrow morning.

通常情况下，事情发生的规模会更大，但需要更长的时间，而且比你想象的要慢得多。

Usually usually it happens in greater amounts, but it takes longer periods of time and takes slower than you think it would happen.

我认为，我们才刚刚进入这一切的初期阶段。

I would say we're in the early stages of all of this.

我们正在见证生产力的提升，但没有人会一下子翻转开关。

We're seeing going to see productivity advances and nobody just flips a switch.

事实上，从来没有人会一下子翻转开关。

Thing is nobody ever flips a switch.

这些都是在很长一段时间内逐步发生的变化。

These are incremental changes over very long periods of time.

但这意味着，将更高级的智能应用于企业，将使企业变得更好、更高效、更富有生产力，坦率地说，也对世界更有利。

But it's what it means is that this that the application of greater intelligence into businesses is going to make business better, more efficient, more productive and better for the world, frankly.

这让我们所有人都变得更聪明。

That just makes us all smarter.

你提到过房地产。

You mentioned real estate.

在过去，我想说是十年，但特别是过去五年里，房地产发生了哪些变化？

How has that changed over the past, I would say ten, but specifically five years?

你知道，同样地，我会说在过去二十五年、三十年、十年、五年里，这些事情总是逐渐演变的。

You know, again, I would say over the past twenty five, thirty years, ten years, five years, these things always just evolve.

你知道，工业产能过去只用于制造和商品仓储，而今天则被用于将大量商品配送到家庭。

And, you know, industrial capacity used to be just used for manufacturing storage of goods, and today it's used for transportation of many goods that are delivered to homes.

因此，过去十年间，工业领域作为一项业务发生了巨大变化。

So industrial has chain enormously changed as a business over the past ten years.

零售业也发生了变化，因为过去人们所有的购物都在实体店进行。

Retail has changed because people used to all their shopping in stores.

如今，他们在店里进行非常个性化的购物，并希望在店内获得体验。

Today, what they do is they do very bespoke shopping in stores and they want experiences in stores.

但如果你想买纸巾，通常不会去商场。

But if you wanna buy paper towels, you usually don't go to the mall.

你直接在网上下单就行了。

You just order it online.

但如果你想吃顿饭，或者试穿一件衬衫或一条裤子，或者下午找点乐子，你就会去商场。

And but but if you wanna have a meal and you wanna go and try on a shirt or pair of pants or have some fun for the afternoon, you go to the mall.

发生变化的就是，如果你拥有大宗商品——如今几乎任何商品都算作大宗商品——那都不太好了。

And that's that's what's changed, is that commodity goods, if you own commodity, if you own almost today commodity, anything, it's bad.

如果你拥有普通办公物业，不好。

If you own commodity office, bad.

如果你拥有普通零售物业，不好。

If you own commodity retail, bad.

如果你拥有普通工业物业，不好。

You own commodity industrial, bad.

事实上，如果你拥有普通酒店物业，也不好。

In fact, if you own commodity hotels, bad.

是的。

Yeah.

今天真正出色的是那些位居前25%的资产。

If you what's great today is all of those things in the top 25%.

我们的观点始终是：拥有最好的，购买最好的，持续投资于最好的。

And our our view always has been by the best, own the best, buy the best, continue to reinvest into the best.

因此，我们的房地产属于全球顶尖水平，我们持续取得优异的业绩。

And so our real estate is among the best in the world, and we continue to experience some some great numbers.

看。

Look.

过去五年里，由于新冠疫情、其他因素以及利率上升了400到500个基点，这一切都扰乱了房地产市场。

Over the last five years because of COVID and because other things and because interest rates went up by 400, 500 basis points, all of that disrupted the real estate market.

但最糟糕的时期已经远远过去了。

But the worst is behind us by far.

我们现在回头看房地产发生过的事情。

We're looking in the rearview mirror by by what happened in real estate.

事实上，这次大多数领域的基本面实际上相当不错。

And in fact, this time, the fundamentals are actually pretty good in most things.

只是有些人资本结构无法适应当前的融资环境，因此他们必须注入资本来去杠杆，或者做其他必要的调整，否则就会有人接管这些资产。

It's just there are some people that have capital structures that aren't built for these financing markets, and therefore they have to put capital in to be able to deleverage or whatever they have to do or or somebody else will take over the asset.

但这在全球范围内并不是一个大问题。

But that's not a huge issue across the world.

也许花几分钟时间，跟我讲讲你是如何思考风险、利率和债务在资产中的作用的？

Maybe spend a few minutes and sort of like take me behind the scenes in how you think about risk and how you think about interest rates and how you think about debt when it comes to assets?

我们投资的基本理念是，应对那些能够抵御市场波动的资产，谨慎地使用债务。

Our our fundamental thesis of investing is that you should put a prudent amount of debt on assets that can withstand markets.

如果可以的话，你应该锁定利率，因为你清楚自己的融资成本。

If you can, then you should fix it because you know your cost.

而时不时地，如果你判断失误，就确保多准备一些资金来支持你的资产。

And and from time to time, if you got it wrong, you put a little make sure you have a little more money around to put it in and and support your asset.

因此，我们一直以保守的方式为我们的业务和资产融资。

So we've always conservatively financed our businesses and assets.

我们的所有融资都是逐项资产或逐项业务进行的。

All of our financing is asset by asset asset asset or business by business by business by business.

因此，我们合并资产负债表上的所有债务，实际上只是众多单资产融资的累积。

So any debt that we accumulate onto our consolidated balance sheet is just the accumulation of a whole bunch of single asset financings.

我们从不希望，也从不认为自己会放弃资产或违约。

And and it's not that we ever want to or think that we will give back assets or not live up.

事实上，我们在贷款人中的声誉是，我们是全球最值得信赖的借款人之一，因为我们始终支持我们的业务。

In fact, our reputation is with our lenders is that we're one of the best sponsors in the world to borrow, lend money to because we support our businesses.

但逐笔资产融资的方式让你能够逐个应对情况。

But buying have having asset by asset by asset financing allows you to just deal with the situation one by one by one.

而且其期限很长，意味着还款周期非常长。

And its duration, meaning they're spread over long, long periods of time.

关于利率，我认为最重要的是要记住，我们不会按国债利率借款。

And with interest rates, I think the most important thing to remember is we don't borrow the treasury rate.

只有政府才会按国债利率借款。

Only the government borrows at treasury rates.

我们借款的利率是国债利率加上利差。

And what we borrow at is treasury rate plus spread.

是的。

Yeah.

历史上，利差通常是200个基点，而利率是300个基点。

And historically, spreads were 200 basis points and interest rates were 300 basis points.

因此，我们的借款利率是5%。

And therefore you borrowed at five.

当新冠疫情爆发时，利率和国债利率都降到了零。

And when when COVID hit interest rate, the treasury rate went to zero.

是的。

Yeah.

大多数贷款方告诉我们：‘我不会以高出200个基点的利差借给你，只给你3%的利率。’

And what the most of the lenders said to us is, yeah, I'm not going to lend you at 200 over and give you three.

我会把利差扩大到350个基点。

I'm widening that out to to three fifty.

所以我会给你5%或者4.5%的利率。

So I'll give you five or four and a half.

因此，以前我们借款利率是5%，而在疫情期间，我们的借款利率是4.5%。

And therefore, before we were boring at five and in COVID, were boring at four and a half.

所以当人们说：‘天啊，你们在疫情期间获得了这么多融资。’

So when people say, oh, geez, you've got all this financing in COVID.

对。

Yes.

也许有些人确实获得了极低的利率，因为利率当时为零，他们可能在某个极端时刻以2%的利率借款，但这种情况并不多见。

Maybe some people did and some people got very low rates because rates were zero and they might have borrowed at two at an extreme point in time, but not very much.

而大多数情况下，贷款方只是扩大了利差。

And most of it, lenders just widened the spread out.

如今，基准利率很高。

Today, base rates are high.

我们又回到了5%。

We're back to five.

你猜怎么着？

Guess what?

利差达到了历史最低水平。

Spreads are the lowest they've ever been in history.

我们刚刚完成了布鲁克菲尔德公司的三十年期融资。

We just did a thirty year Brookfield Corporation financing.

因此，我们以固定利率借款三十年，利率为125个基点的利差。

So we're borrowing money for thirty years fixed for that time period and is a 125 over.

所以利差、整体票息非常重要。

So spreads spreads basically all in coupons are important.

这一点在投资实物资产、房地产，以及基础设施、可再生能源等方面都特别重要。

And and that's really important to remember about investing in real assets, real estate, but also infrastructure, renewables, etcetera.

你觉得历史上极低的利率造成了哪些扭曲？

What distortions do you see by sort of like historically low interest rates?

即使以今天的标准来看，你也提到利率已经上升了。

And even by today's standards, you mentioned they went up.

利率确实上涨了不少，但从历史角度看，仍然远低于平均水平。

They they have gone up quite a bit, but historically, they're still well below average.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为这里最需要强调的一点是，利率其实并不算高。

Look, I think the that's that that maybe is the most important point to note here is that interest rates aren't that high.

它们比之前高了一些，因为利率曾经降到零。

They're higher than they were because interest rates went to zero.

金融危机后的几年里，利率接近零。

And for a number of years after the financial crisis, were close to zero.

而现在，它们实际上处于一个相对正常的水平。

And now they're actually in a normal, a relatively normal range.

我确信我们还会看到短期利率再下降几百个基点，也许是五到十个基点。

I'm sure we're going to see another few 100, few another 5,100 basis points off of the short rates.

我们将稳定在一个常规的利率区间。

And we're going to settle into just a regular range of rates.

但这些利率实际上相当正常。

But these rates are actually pretty normal.

对我们业务而言，也非常有利。

And for our business, very constructive.

我们可以做的事情是进行再融资，因为票息与之前相比并没有大太多。

And the things that we can do and we're refinancing it because the coupons aren't that much different than what they were before.

我们之前讨论过市场错配带来的机会，你能花几分钟跟我讲讲，你是如何思考布局以应对周期的吗？不仅要维持你的资产，还要利用市场的错配机会。

People we talked about sort of dislocations providing opportunities and, you know, maybe spend a few minutes walking me through how you think of positioning to manage through a cycle, but not only maintain your assets, but also take advantage of dislocations in the market.

当市场出现错配时，首先要确保你已经为此做好了准备。

So the first thing one has to do when there are dislocations in the market is make sure that you have been you were prepared for it.

所以在形势非常好的时候，你始终应该为即将到来的下行市场做好准备。

So the one thing you should do always when times are really good is ensure that you're preparing for the down markets that's coming.

那些没有做好准备的人，最终通常都不会成功。

The ones that don't usually aren't successful in the fullness of time.

但如果你已经做好了准备，首要任务就是加大力度，确保我们完全准备好。

But if you are prepared, the first order of business is let's double down and make sure that we're fully prepared.

但其次，我认为在经济衰退或周期结束、走出低谷时，最重要的是确保你的一切都完好无损。

But then secondly, and I'd say coming out of recessions or cycles, coming out of the bottom, what's most important is just have everything you have intact.

不要失去任何东西。

Do not lose anything.

不要损失太多，要坚持下去，因为会有很多人已经失去了东西。

Do not lose too much and keep going because there'll be many people who will have lost stuff.

在市场开始复苏的那一刻，进一步提升业务会更好。

What's even better to enhance the business is at that point in time, as the market's starting to recover.

一旦你感到安心，我们就已经处理了企业内部的所有事务，这时你可以将资本投资于新的业务，并为你的实体增添价值。

And once you're comfortable, we've taken care of all the things within our business that you can then invest capital into new businesses at that point in time and add to your entity.

如果你能做到这一点，这就是杰出的赢家和长期投资者与那些平庸者之间的区别。

And if you can, that's the difference between the great winners and long term investing and and those that are just in the middle.

你现在管理的资金已经超过一万亿美元了。

You have almost well, you have over $1,000,000,000,000 in management now.

你如何抵御压力，不急于投入这笔资金？

How do you fend off the pressure to deploy that money?

听起来像是一大笔钱。

It sounds like a lot of money.

这确实是一大笔钱。

It is a lot of money.

听起来像是一大笔钱。

It sounds like a lot of money.

这是万亿级别。

It's trillion.

但当我们做我们这种业务时，这笔钱就没那么多。

But it's not that much when you do what we do.

几年前，我们收购了德国电信在德国的一半电信塔业务。

Couple years ago, we bought Deutsche Telekom's half a Deutsche Telekom's telecom tower business in Germany.

在奥地利，这是一笔200亿美元的交易。

In Austria, it's $20,000,000,000 transaction.

我们正在为微软建设价值130亿美元的发电厂。

We're building for Microsoft $13,000,000,000 of power plants.

我们正与英特尔合作在亚利桑那州建设一座320亿美元的晶圆厂。

We're building with Intel a $32,000,000,000 fabrication plant in Arizona.

你知道，我可以继续列下去。

You know, I can go through the list.

这些是消耗大量资本、能带来优异长期回报的大额交易。

These are large transactions that consume significant amounts of capital that earn excellent long term returns.

我提到这些只是为了说明，我们已经长期从事这类业务了。

And I've just used that to say we're we're we've been doing this a long time.

我们向投资者和客户承诺的是，我们会承担适度的风险。

What we promise our investors and our clients is that we will take moderate amounts of risk.

不是完全没有风险，而是承担适度的风险，并在长期内获得良好的回报。

Not no risk, but moderate amounts of risk and earn good, good returns over long periods of time.

我们不会追求爆炸性的收益。

We won't shoot the lights out.

你不会每年都获得45%的回报。

You're not going to get 45% returns every year.

我们也不是为了这个目标。

And we're not trying for that.

但在超长周期内，平均回报会累积成卓越的回报。

But average returns over an above average period of time equal outstanding returns.

是的。

Yeah.

这正是关键所在。

And that's the point.

关键是，我们的母公司在过去三十年里实现了年化19%的回报。

The point is we've earned our parent companies earned 19% return annualized returns for thirty years.

当你进行复利计算时，年化19%的回报持续三十年，听起来似乎并不算多。

When you compound up, which doesn't sound like very much 19% returns annualized for thirty years.

你这么说的时候，可能觉得这没什么了不起，但我想说的是，一百万美元在那段时间里变成了近两亿美元，或者一千美元变成了二十万美元。

Like it just when you say that in that line, doesn't sound like that much, but I think that's a million dollars became almost $200,000,000 over that period of time or a thousand dollars became $200,000.

这已经很多了。

It's a lot.

所以，投资成功的要点不在于短时间内赚大钱。

And so the point is success in investing isn't about making a lot of money in a short period of time.

真正重要的是在很长一段时间内获得合理的回报。

What it's really about is earning reasonable returns over very long periods of time.

你看，这就是伯克希尔·哈撒韦。

And look, that's Berkshire Hathaway.

伯克希尔·哈撒韦之所以成功，是因为他们能够在很长一段时间内以合理的回报率配置资本。

Berkshire Hathaway is successful because they have been able to deploy capital at reasonable rounds of turn over very long periods of time.

这就是长期投资的成功之处。

And and that's the success of long term investing.

这是一家你敬仰的公司吗？

Is that a company you look up to?

你看。

Look.

他们在很长一段时间里把业务做得非常出色。

They've done an incredible job in in their business over a very long period of time.

你可能提到过超过三十年。

Maybe you mentioned over thirty years.

给我讲讲布鲁克菲尔德的历史，以及我们未来的方向。

Walk me through a little bit of the history of Brookfield and then the future where we're going.

我们最初是一家运营型企业。

So we started as an operating business.

我们只是为自己投资。

We just invested for ourselves.

我们当时拥有的业务与今天基本相同，包括基础设施、房地产、可再生能源、工业服务——我们现在称之为私募股权，以及信贷放贷业务。

We had the businesses that we basically have today, Infrastructure, real estate, renewables, and industrial service, we call private equity today, businesses and credit lending.

这些就是我们的五大业务。

Those were our five businesses.

我们为自己投资并提供贷款。

We did it for ourselves and we lent money.

二十五年前，我们决定将这些技能转化为一项业务，用来管理我们自己以及一些机构或其他客户的钱，并提供这些另类投资产品。

And twenty five years ago, we decided that we could take those skills we had and turn them into a business to be able to manage some of our money and some of our institutional or other clients' money and and offer alternatives into those funds.

刚开始时，没有人愿意投资我们，因为他们根本不理解另类投资。

When it started, nobody wanted to invest with us because they didn't really understand alternatives.

而今天，这已经发展成为一个万亿美元的业务。

And today, that's turned into a trillion dollar business.

它取得了极大的成功，主要是因为这些产品非常适合机构和零售客户进行投资。

It's been extremely successful largely because these products are ideal for institutional and retail clients to invest into.

过去二十五年主要是围绕机构投资者展开的，但这句话并不是说他们将来不会继续投资。

And the the past twenty five years has been about institutional, and and this comment is not meant to say that they won't be investing.

但他们从零增加到某些人达到百分之三十、四十、五十的另类投资。

But their their increase from going from zero to some of them are at thirty, forty, 50% alternatives.

当你从零增长到百分之五十时，就不可能再增长到百分之百。

When you go from zero to 50, you can't go to a 100.

所以很多人已经达到了他们的目标比例，但如今正在发生的情况，以及对你关于未来问题的回答是，同样的现象现在正发生在零售投资者身上。

So a lot of them are at their numbers, but what's happening today and and to your question of the future is that the same phenomena is now happening in retail.

零售指的是个人投资者。

Retail being individuals.

美国的401(k)计划将向另类投资开放。

Four zero one k's in The US are gonna open up to alternatives.

我认为全球的养老计划都将向另类投资开放。

I think plans around the world will open up to alternatives.

另类投资同样适合零售投资者。

Alternatives are ideal products for retail as well.

事实上，它们甚至更合适，因为你是在为退休储蓄。

In fact, they're almost more ideal because you're saving for your retirement.

还有什么比一种能在很长一段时间内获得合理回报并实现复利增长的产品更适合放在里面呢？

And what better to have in there than a product that earns a reasonable return over a very long period of time and can compound.

因此，我们资产管理业务的未来，真正在于零售市场的开放以及我们产品推动的个人财富持续增长。

And so the future of our asset management business is really about that the opening up of retail and continued growth of retail wealth with our products.

我们为机构所做的事，完全一样。

Doing the same things that we do for institutions, exact same.

但现在我们只是推出了更多适合个人需求的多样化产品。

But now just opening up in different types of products that are suited or tailored for individuals.

那意味着什么？

What does that mean?

也许你能详细解释一下，因为我一直以为这些产品已经对公众开放了。

Maybe walk me through it because, you know, I've always thought you've had these available to people.

我可以去公开市场购买布鲁克菲尔德基础设施产品。

I could go buy Brookfield infrastructure on the public market.

你确实可以在公开市场购买它，把它纳入股票投资组合，但到目前为止，我们还没有为你的401(k)提供过私人市场的相关产品。

You you can buy it in the public market that fits in a stock portfolio, but you to date, we haven't offered you a product for your four zero one k in the private market.

好的。

Okay.

这本来是可以让你选择的，比如你想不想和我们一起投资基础设施，直接拥有大量数据中心之类的资产？

That was open to you to say, do you want to buy infrastructure with us and just own a bunch of data centers and different things like that?

我们恰好有几只上市的资产非常独特，但人们真正想要的是在投资组合中配置私人资产，我认为在未来二十年里，这一需求将呈指数级增长。

We happen to have a couple of listed ones that are very unique, but but the what people want is private assets within their portfolios, and that's going to increase, I'd say exponentially over the next twenty years.

所以零售业务是未来，但你们正在投资的另一个重要领域是保险。

So retail is sort of the future, but another big area that you're investing in is insurance.

能不能给我详细讲讲，在未来二三十年里，你在保险领域看到的机遇？

Maybe walk me through some of the opportunities you see over the next twenty or thirty years in insurance.

是的。

Yeah.

除了资产管理业务之外，我们五年前决定将一部分资本投入保险行业。

So outside of our asset management business, we decided to take a portion of our capital and put it into insurance five years ago.

这是一个幸运的时机，因为我们当时收购了一些优秀的保险公司，而那时它们表现不佳，原因是利率极低，它们的资本回报率也很低。

It was a fortuitous time because we bought some excellent insurance companies at a point in time where they weren't doing very well because interest rates were extremely low and they weren't earning very high returns on their capital.

四年后的今天，这些公司表现得非常好。

Fast forward four years later, the companies are doing extremely well.

我们每年从这项业务中获得20亿美元的现金流。

We're making $2,000,000,000 a year of cash flow within the business.

对我们来说，保险意味着以下几点。

And insurance for us is, I'd say the following.

首先，也许让我回溯一下。

Firstly, and maybe just to go back.

我们进入保险业的目标，并不是因为我们想成为一家保险公司。

Our goal was get in the insurance business, not because we wanted to be an insurance.

我们的目标是，客户来找我们，是因为他们需要我们的投资能力。

What our goal is, is our clients come to us because they want our investment skills.

我们拥有非常独特的优势，即一系列能够为长期投资者打造产品的投资能力。

What we have is a very unique offering is a bunch of investment skills that can create products for long term investors.

我们的保险公司如今拥有1200亿美元的资产，是我们在资产管理业务中所有投资的完美长期投资者。

Our insurance company now being $120,000,000,000 of assets is a perfect long term investor into all of the things we do from our asset management business.

因此，我们拥有独特的专长，因为我们能够接触到我们的投资产品，而且这些产品非常出色。

So we have a special expertise to be able to offer because we have access to our investment products or great.

相比其他大多数机构，我们在将投资产品配置到保险公司方面拥有更大的渠道和更高的熟悉度。

We have greater access or greater comfort with all the investment products to be able to put into the insurance companies than most other groups out there.

也许还有少数其他公司和我们类似，但数量非常少。

Maybe there's a few other others like us, but not very many.

因此，我们在这一点上拥有特殊的优势。

And therefore, we have a special benefit for that.

因此，我们主要选择了美国的年金产品。

So we we've chosen annuities in The United States largely.

到目前为止，我们刚刚在英国获得了牌照。

So far, we've now just got licensed in The United Kingdom.

为什么选择年金？

Why annuities?

是什么吸引了你们？

What appeals to you about that?

这只是因为它们是低风险的负债。

It's just because they're they're low risk liabilities.

我们在负债端并没有承担高风险。

We we were not taking on high risk on the liability side.

我们最初进入这一领域的目标是：不在负债端承担风险，而是在资产端赚取收益。

Our goal originally was in getting into this was don't take risk on the liabilities, earn our money on the asset side.

我们拥有在资产端获得超额回报的独特能力。

And we have this unique ability to earn excess returns on the asset side.

我们的目标是投入大量资本，并对业务进行超额资本化，这使我们能够在资产负债表的资产端开展许多保险公司无法做到的业务。

And our goal was put very significant amounts of capital and over capitalize the businesses, which allows us to do things on the asset side of the balance sheet, which is very different than many insurance companies.

你知道，我们可以更大程度地持有房地产。

And what what was You know, we we can own real estate to a greater extent.

我们可以更大程度地持有另类投资。

We can own alternatives to a greater extent.

我们可以更大程度地持有基础设施。

We own infrastructure to a greater extent.

我们可以投资高收益债券，而不仅仅是市场上的固定收益产品。

We can own high yield bonds as opposed to just fixed income on the market.

我们为客户提供的一切服务，都可以纳入保险公司，虽然可能需要更多资本，但我们已经对这家公司进行了超额资本配置。

All the things that we do for our clients, we can put them in the insurance company and they may take more capital, but we've overcapitalized the company.

我们最初从40亿美元起步，现已将公司账面权益增加至7160亿美元。

So we started with 4,000,000,000 We've increased the capital, think to $716 17,000,000,000 of book equity within the business.

我们持续进行超额资本配置。

We continue to over capitalize.

此外，我们还有高达10.015万亿美元的顶层资本，如果需要更多资金，我们会注入保险公司，确保它们健康稳健，远超市场上任何其他公司。

But on top of that, we have another $100,150,000,000,000 dollars of capital up top that if we need more money, we'll put it into the insurance companies to ensure they're healthy and better than any that are out there.

我们与监管机构保持着良好的关系，向他们详细解释所有这些事项，并对我们与他们进行的所有交易保持高度透明。

And we have an excellent relationship with the regulators and explain all these things to them and are very transparent with all the transactions we do with them.

我们拥有一些非常独特的优势，比如，如果我们拥有一栋办公楼，而另一方持有另一半并打算出售，我们知道他们将以极低的价格出手，这对我们的保险公司来说就是一笔绝佳的房地产投资。

And we happen to have some very unique things that we can do because, you know, for example, if we own an office building and somebody owns the other half and they wanna sell, and we know that's a really cheap price they're gonna sell at, that's a great real estate investment for our insurance company.

很少有人能像我们这样，凭借我们的专业知识和对机会的获取能力，拥有这样的机会。

Very seldom do people have that opportunity with our knowledge and access to opportunities.

所以这是一个非常独特的服务，这也是我们能提供的价值。

So it's a pretty unique offering and that's what we bring to the table.

你觉得你们会退出年金业务，还是会继续留在年金领域，同时拓展其他业务？

Do you think you'll get out of annuity, well, stay in annuities, but expand into other businesses?

我想象短期类资产可能更适合财产与意外险，但这类业务并不太适合这种投资方式，不过再保险或许可以。

I am imagining short duration stuff is probably a property and casualty is not doesn't lend itself to that type of investing, but maybe reinsurance or

是的。

Yeah.

我想说的是，我们当初的目标是起步。

Look, I would say we wanted to start.

这是一场持续二十五年的事业。

This is a twenty five year venture.

我们现在才走了五年。

We're five years in.

我们一开始就想确保自己清楚自己在做什么。

We wanted to start to make sure that we knew what we were doing.

我们已经与所有监管机构会面过。

We met all our regulators.

我们赢得了他们的尊重。

We earned their respect.

我们开展业务，并弄清楚了所有风险。

And we we operate we could operate and figure out what were all the risks.

我们已经进入这个领域五年了。

We've been in it five years.

我们非常有信心。

We're very comfortable.

随着时间推移，我们可能会拓展到其他我们能够理解且符合我们能力范围的产品。

Over time, we may branch out into other types of other products that we can understand that fit our skill set.

这对我们来说才是最重要的。

And that's really what's important to us.

首先，我们正在国际上拓展年金业务，或者养老金风险转移型年金，这两者非常相似。

So first, we're expanding internationally writing annuities or pension risk transfer annuities, are both are very similar.

所以，与其在负债类型上走出我们的舒适区，我们现在的做法是拓展到英国，这是一个庞大的养老金风险转移市场。

So instead of instead of going out of our comfort zone on the type of liability, what we're doing today is we're expanding to The UK, which is a big pension risk transfer market.

这只是另一种扩展方式。

That's just a different way to expand.

这些养老金风险是固定收益型还是固定缴款型？

Are the pension risk defined benefit or defined contribution?

养老金风险转移主要发生在美國、加拿大和英國這三個地方。

These are pension risk transfer means which happens in The US, Canada and The UK largely, those three places in the world.

这意味着，如果一家公司有一个希望从其资产负债表上移除的固定收益计划。

What it means is that if there's a corporation that has a defined benefit plan that wants to get it off their balance sheet.

他们有一个价值100亿美元的计划。

So they have a $10,000,000,000 plan.

有100亿美元的资产，也有100亿美元的负债。

There's 10,000,000,000 assets, 10,000,000,000 liabilities.

他们可以将这个计划一次性转让给我们，我们的保险公司可以承接下来。

They can commute that plan to us and we can our insurance company can take it.

因此，他们不再对这个计划负责。

So they're no longer on the hook for the plan.

他们不再承担资产或负债的风险。

They're no longer at risk on the assets or the liabilities.

我们已经承担了这个风险。

We've assumed that risk.

我们现在将支付他们的养老金领取者。

We will now pay their pensioners.

他们把资产交给我们，希望我们通过投资逐步获得足够的资金来支付所有养老金领取者。

And they gave us the assets to earn over time, hopefully the amount of money to pay all their pensioners.

如果不够，我们来承担缺口，而不是他们。

And if not, we're on the hook for it, not them.

你能花几分钟给我讲讲布鲁克菲尔德的运作机制，以及你们为什么这样设计吗？

Can you spend a few minutes walking me through the machinery of Brookfield and why you've structured it the way you have?

嗯，我只想说

Look, I would just say

我先说明一下，外界的一个批评是，这太复杂了。

Like, I'll preface this with, one of the criticisms from the outside in is that it's super complicated.

有太多不同的实体和组成部分。

There's a lot of different entities and moving parts.

你是怎么看待这个问题的？

How do you think through that?

我想说的是，没错，布鲁克菲尔德的组成部分可能确实更多。

So I would just say that, yes, there are probably more pieces of Brookfield.

对于萨姆·隆德，我首先想反驳的是，世界上有很多像我们这样规模的大公司，它们的组成部分和我们一样多。

For Sam Lund, I might disagree first by saying there are many companies in the world that are large like us, and they have as many pieces as we do.

这是第一点。

That's the first point.

所以我不确定这是否真的成立，但我还是会认真对待你的观点。

So I'm not sure that's actually a true statement, but I'll take your points at face value.

我想说的是，我们设立的每一个部分都经过了深思熟虑，并为业务做出了巨大贡献。

And I would just say each one of the pieces we've set up has been highly thought through and contributes a lot to the business.

这些都不是我们随意做的事情。

These are not random things we've done.

它们都非常明确，并且长期来看为公司带来了巨大的价值。

They're very specific and they contribute enormous value in the long term to the company.

正因为如此，我们不得不更多地向投资者解释它们，有时甚至需要反复解释。

And because of that, we have to explain them more to maybe, sometimes have to explain them more to investors.

但对于我们的朋友来说，他们完全理解这些部分存在的原因、它们为我们带来的作用以及各自实现的目标。

But for our friends, they understand exactly why those pieces are there and what they do for us and and what each accomplishes.

从短期来看，我们完全可以挥一挥魔杖，把所有这些你所说的复杂部分都去掉。

In the short term, I could we could wave a wand and get rid of all those, as you denote, complicated parts.

我们有办法一次性把这些全部消除。

We have ways of one, get rid of them all.

但从长期来看，这对股东来说是不利的。

In the long term, it would be bad for shareholders.

回报会减少。

Less returns would be earned.

我们会面临更大的财务风险。

We would be more at financial risk.

我们的结构拥有最大的灵活性，能够应对各种机遇、风险以及外界的一切变化。

We would have we we have the maximum amount of flexibility within our structure to be able to go through, deal with opportunities, risks, and everything that's out there.

所以我只是觉得，我们总能在解释这些部分上做得更好，我们一直在努力。

So I I just I I look, we can always do better on explaining the pieces, and and we try all the time.

我们的声誉对我们来说极其重要。

And it's incredibly our our reputation's incredibly important to us.

所以当有人批评我们的结构或其中的某些方面时，我们会加倍努力，确保向大家解释清楚。

So when people criticize us about our structure or different things that are there, we try to double down and make sure we explain it all to people.

但我想说的是，每一个部分都非常重要，为业务带来了巨大贡献。

But what I I would just say that each of those pieces is really important and contribute a lot to the business.

假设你们把所有这些都归入一个统一的框架下，这会如何改变你们可获得的机会？

Hypothetically, if you were to all put it under one umbrella, how would that change the opportunity set available to you?

这只会导致某些股东的权益被稀释。

It would just mean dilution to some shareholder.

例如，我们两年前剥离了我们的资产管理业务。

For example, we spun off our asset management business two years ago.

有一大批美国投资者，主要是这样，他们只愿意投资资产管理业务。

There's a whole group of US investors, largely, that buy asset management businesses that only want to be invested in asset management.

他们不想拥有我们所持有的其他资产。

They don't want to own assets that we own.

他们不想投资保险业务。

They don't want to be invested in insurance.

他们不想参与我们做的其他所有事情。

They don't want to do all the other things we do.

他们不想改变。

They don't want to change.

像我们的母公司布鲁克菲尔德公司，在过去三十五年里，为了我们所有人的利益，已经经历了许多不同的变化。

Like our parent company, Brookfield Corporation, It has changed in thirty five years in many different ways, in many different times for the benefit of all of us.

但当我们做出改变时，你们需要信任我们。

But you need to you need to trust us when we're changing.

布鲁克菲尔德资产管理是一家纯粹的资产管理业务，资产轻盈，将来很可能也不会有任何改变。

Brookfield Asset Management is a pure play asset management business that's asset light that will probably never be anything different.

你可以相信我们这一点，这就是它的本质。

You can trust us for that, and that's what it is.

所以，他们的受众完全不同。

So they're just they're just different audiences.

这让我们能够为这一受众量身定制一种证券。

And and it just allows us to have a security which is tailored to that audience.

如果我们想向公开市场的投资者或其他另类资产管理人提供，或者进行合并，这为我们提供了机会，而无需处理我们其他业务带来的所有问题。

And if we want to offer it to somebody in the public markets or to an or to another alternative manager, we want to merge in or something, it gives us the opportunity to do that and not have to deal with all the other issues that we have.

那你们的保险业务呢？

What about your insurance business?

或者你们的投资呢？

Or what about your investments?

或者你们接下来打算做什么？

Or what what are you going to do next?

这仅仅让我们能够做到这一点。

And And it just allows us to do that.

所以，我觉得，我们其实可以这么做。

So I don't, like, we could do it.

但这会让我们失去组织中许多宝贵的优势。

It just would take away a lot of the great benefits we have in the organization.

如果你以投资者布鲁斯的视角来看，你认为哪个业务在未来十五年最具优势？

If you put your investor Bruce hat on, which of the businesses do you think is the best positioned for the next fifteen years?

我不是在问回报，而是问哪个业务在竞争上最具优势？

And I'm not asking returns, just mean which business do you think is the best competitively positioned?

我只是觉得它们都不同。

I just think they're all different.

它们完全不一样。

They're all totally different.

只要我们执行得当，我们投资的每一个领域未来都有巨大的机会。

Everything we invest into has enormous opportunity going forward as long as we execute properly.

但它们每一个都各不相同。

But they're each one of them is different.

我真的很兴奋。

I I get excited.

我甚至愿意把我的全部净资产都投到每一个项目里。

I could I could get excited about having all of my net worth in every single one of them.

而且它们未来都相当令人振奋。

And and they're all pretty exciting going forward.

也许花几分钟谈谈人才和人员。

Maybe spend a few minutes on talent and people.

布鲁克菲尔德以押注看似年轻的员工而闻名，从外部看是这样。

Brookfield is known to take really big bets with what from the outside looking in, be young people.

你在人身上看到了什么，让你有信心对他们下注？

What do you see in people that gives you the confidence to take bets in them?

你们如何打造一种让真正有能力的人脱颖而出、敢于大胆投入的文化？

How do you build a culture where meritocracy rises and people can take big bets?

所以我们一直认为，首先，我们是一个极端的精英体制。

So we've always had the view that well, firstly, we're an extreme meritocracy.

这是一场合伙关系。

This is a partnership.

这是个人之间的合伙关系。

It's partnership of individuals.

当我们离开合伙关系时，如果你是合伙企业的所有者或控制人，你的股份就会消失。

When when we leave the partnership, our shares that if you're an owner or controller of the partnership, they go away.

它们会转给其他人。

They go on to somebody else.

所以没有任何人的家庭会成为这个合伙关系的一部分。

So nobody's family will ever will ever be part of this partnership.

这是一个精英体制。

It's a meritocracy.

其次，我们一直认为，智慧的年长者与聪明、进取的年轻一代相结合，既能赋予你应对各种情况所需的威望——这需要一些经验，又能让你更了解当下的动态。

Second, we've always had the view that a cross between wise, older people and smart, aggressive, young people both give you the gravitas to deal with situations, which you need a little history, but also allow you to be allow you to know more about what's going on today.

我确信，今天我们公司里30岁的人对科技的了解比我多，因为他们是在不同的环境中成长起来的。

I'm positive our 30 year olds today in the business know more about technology than I do because they've grown up with it differently.

这让我们能够更快、更好、更迅速地应对世界上每一个新趋势和动态。

It allows us to be faster, better, quicker to every new trend in the world and what's going on out there.

而且，我认为，这也营造了一种文化，让人们渴望留在这里并取得进步，因为他们知道这是可能的。

And it also, I'd say, creates a culture where people want to be here and get ahead because they know they can.

所以我看。

And and so I look.

三年前，我们向合伙人和高层推荐了康纳·特斯基，让他成为资产管理业务的下一任首席执行官。

We brought to the partners and to our senior people three years ago, we brought Connor Teske forward as the next person that will be the CEO of the asset management business.

这经过了内部审核。

That was internally vetted.

也经过了外部审核。

It was an externally vetted.

如今，他正在继续与客户、投资者以及相关人士会面。

And today we're in the process of him continuing to meet clients and investors and all those kind of things.

我认为他今年37岁。

And I think he's 37 years old today.

他极具热情和才华，他会带领公司涌现出一批新人，而重新激活业务正是让它们变得更好和不同的关键。

He's incredibly passionate, talented, and and he'll bring through a whole new group of people within the company and reenergizing businesses is what makes them better and different.

能跟我详细说说你们做决策时的那些会议吗？

Walk me through some of those meetings where you're making decision.

幕后都发生了什么？

What goes on behind the scenes?

你们如何量化风险？

How do you quantify risk?

你们在交易上花时间最多的是哪些方面？

Where do you spend your time on deals?

我们的投资流程是，只投资我们熟悉并亲自参与的领域。

Our investment process is we only invest in things that we deal with and know.

我们有实地人员，对业务有深入了解，我们的投资委员会通常只专注于下行风险的保护。

We have people on the ground and our knowledge of the business and and we're our investment committees are normally only focused on downside protection.

上行空间会自己照顾好自己。

Upside will always take care of itself.

无论你追求的是16%、22%、29%还是18%，这些都不重要。

And whether you shoot for 16%, 22%, 29%, 18%, none of those matter.

它们都很不错。

They're all great.

真正重要的是有哪些风险？

What's really important is what are the risks?

可能会出什么问题？

What can go wrong?

情况会有多糟？

How bad could it get?

如果真的发生了，我们该如何应对？

And and how do we deal with it if that happens?

因此，我们在投资委员会中几乎把所有时间都花在了下行保护上，这对我们来说才是最重要的。

And so we spend virtually all of our time on downside protection at our investment committees, and that's all that's important to us.

当你犯错时，通常错在哪里？

When you're wrong, where are you typically wrong?

而且你也没怎么犯错过。

And you haven't been wrong a lot.

是的。

No.

是的。

No.

听好了，我们会犯错。

Look, we make mistakes.

我们尽量犯小错。

We try to make small mistakes.

我想就是这样了。

I'd say that's it.

当我们犯错时，错在哪里？

When we're wrong, where are we wrong?

我们在细微的增量上犯错，而这些错误你并不太了解，因为在过去的三十五年里，我们在大事上总体上是正确的，没有任何事情造成不可挽回的损害。

We're wrong in increment in small ways, which aren't You don't know about them very much because in the last thirty five years, we've been right generally on the large things and nothing has been irreparably harmful.

这是因为我们所做的事情都是小步渐进的。

And that's because the things we do are small incremental.

当我们犯错时，都是在过程中发生的。

And when we make mistakes, we make them along the way.

我们鼓励人们持续学习和成长，因为如果你从不犯错，就永远无法进步，但切勿犯大错。

And we encourage people to keep learning and growing because if you don't make some mistakes, you never advance, but do not make big mistakes.

我认为这是我们在整个组织中努力传达的最重要的一点。

And I'd say that's the biggest thing we try to impress across the organization.

你提到了投资委员会。

You mentioned the investment committee.

我只是想知道，在幕后，投资决策是由一个人批准，还是由委员会集体批准？

I just wonder behind the scenes, are investment decisions signed off by one person or is it a committee that signs off?

如果是委员会决策，你们如何对相关人员进行问责？

And if it's a committee, how do you hold people accountable or responsible for those?

通常情况下，某个交易以某种方式进入公司，或者我们有了一个想法，然后没有和某人沟通，交易就发生了。

So our usually what happens is some transaction came into the company some way, or we had an idea and we don't talk to somebody and a transaction came about.

由于我们拥有庞大的业务，因此现在需要得到批准。

It's then approved by today because we have these vast businesses.

交易在业务部门获得批准，但上面还有一个委员会，几乎像是一个资源配置委员会，因为我们想知道整个组织中有多少交易。

It's approved in the business, but then we have one committee that it's almost like an allocation committee up top because we wanna know how many across the organization.

我们想知道在任何时刻有多少交易正在发生。

We wanna know how many transactions are happening at any one point in time.

所以我们不会像你说的那样，犯下错误，你怎么可能犯错呢？

So we're not compromising, like you said, how could you make a mistake?

如果每个人在同一时间都进行巨额交易，我们可能是在押注一个周期。

If everybody made a massive transaction at the same point in time, what we're probably betting on is a cycle.

你可能不希望这样。

And you may not want that.

如果你确实希望如此，那你最好是有意为之。

And if you do, you better knowingly do it.

因此，除了下面负责审批所有交易的部门外，我们还有一个监督委员会，负责审批组织内的一切事务，这个委员会由我们六到八个人组成。

And so in addition to all the deals being approved down below where accountability comes from, We have an oversight committee that approves everything that goes on in the organization, which includes six or eight of us.

这个委员会审批所有事项，主要是作为对整个组织的最终把关。

And that approves everything really just to be a final governor over the entire organization.

在周期发生之前，你们能否提前察觉到一些模式？比如你们会意识到，我们现在处于第一局，还是已经进入后期阶段？

Are there patterns to cycles that you notice in advance of them happening where you're like, we're at the first inning or we're at the late stages?

你们会关注哪些迹象？

What are the signs that you look for?

我想说的是，每个周期都不尽相同，但它们会相似，有相似的节奏。

I would just say that cycles are never the same, but they sort of rhyme, and they look similar.

所以，身边有智慧的年长者是非常重要的，我现在就把自己算作其中之一。

So the one thing of having wise older guys around, I'll consider myself that today.

我曾经是个年轻又不明智的人。

I used to be a young, unwise individual.

我会努力提醒自己，我知道我老了，但不确定自己是否够明智。

I'll try to consider my I know I'm old, just not sure I'm wise.

但之所以需要有更睿智的人在身边，是因为他们对周期和阶段中发生的事情有着更长远的见识。

But I some of the reason for having the the wiser individual around is is having the elongated knowledge of what goes on in cycles and what goes on in periods.

我们以前见过这种情况，这很有帮助。

And we've seen this before is helpful.

有时候这反而是一种阻碍。

Sometimes it's a hindrance.

有时候它对理解背景非常有帮助。

Sometimes it's very helpful for context.

因此，在我们看来，卓越的组织之所以出色，在于他们将坚持与热情——用于投资并取得成功——与过去的经验和对失败的洞察相结合，从而实现风险管理与进取心的平衡。

And therefore that's what makes great organizations, think, in our view, is that you have the combination of the tenacity and passion to make investments and be successful, tempered by the knowledge and skills of past and what's gone wrong to be able to bring together risk management and drive to succeed.

我很好奇，你会怎么教我理解这些周期的知识？

I'm curious, like how you would teach me to that knowledge of cycles.

你会如何将这些知识传递给组织里的其他人，或者如果我向你展示我关注或忽略的东西时，你会怎么教我？

Like, how would you pass that on to somebody in your organization or me if you were to sort of hear the things I look for or don't look for or?

一般来说，我们并不做培训。

You know, I would say in general, we don't do training.

所谓等等。

Quote unquote.

但每一天，这个组织里的每个人都在学习。

But every day, every single person in this organization is learning.

这是一个通过潜移默化的方式学习的过程。

And it's a it's a learn by osmosis process.

我们这里采用开放式办公，包括我自己在内，从未拥有过独立办公室。

We have open plan in the place, including myself, never had an office.

人们彼此交流，氛围非常互动。

And and people talk to one another and it's very interactive.

所以，我一开始说我们从不培训任何人。

And therefore, well, I started off by saying we don't train anybody.

我们每天都在培训他们。

We train them every single day.

这与送人去学校学习是不同的。

And it's just different than sending people to school.

你们在投资后会做复盘吗？

Do you do like postmortems after an investment?

那

And what's the

关键是，尤其是那些失败的案例。

key Oh, Especially the bad ones.

这些复盘都包含哪些内容？

What goes into those?

能给我详细讲讲吗？

Like, walk me through that.

带我看看幕后过程，

Take me behind the scenes and

我们会尝试分析，那些成功的案例通常都能明确看出发生了什么。

We try to look at look, the successful ones you can usually identify and know what happened.

但失败的案例就很难 pinpoint 到具体原因。

The unsuccessful ones are harder to identify what happened.

但通常背后都有原因，归根结底是执行出了问题。

But often there are there are reasons why, and it either comes down to execution.

你没有好好执行。

You didn't you didn't execute properly.

你市场时机把握错了，或者做出了一个糟糕、有缺陷的投资决策。

You had you mistimed the market or you just made a bad, bad, flawed investment decision.

这些是最糟糕的情况。

And those are the worst.

你市场时机把握错了，这还说得过去。

You mistimed the market, you know, it's okay.

但做出有缺陷的投资决策就真的很糟糕。

But making flawed investment decisions is really bad.

是不是你对企业的实力判断错了，对竞争格局理解错了？

Is that where you've got the business strength wrong, the competitive dynamics wrong?

你根本没搞明白？

You don't understand?

有时候，我们会涉足一些与我们主业相关但其实不该进入的领域。

I just sometimes it's where sometimes we're pushing out into areas which are adjunct to what we do and we probably shouldn't have.

我们真的不知道自己在做什么。

We really didn't know what we're doing.

这种情况并不常见，但偶尔也会发生。

And not often does it happen, but once in a while.

你在做投资决策时，有多少注意力放在下行风险上？又有多少是基于对未来五年的模型预测并跟踪执行呢？

How how much of your investment decision you you focus on the downside, but how much of it is like we're modelling it the next five years and then we're tracking to that model or?

我想告诉你的是，投资委员会生成的任何模型，都不可能完全准确地反映实际情况。

The only thing I'd tell you about a model that's produced in an investment committee is it will never be exactly what happens.

但我想说的是，我们真正要做的，是把握住趋势，投资的本质就是能否准确判断趋势。

But I'd say if you get the We're trying to get the trends right, is really what it is, is in investing, it's can you get the trend right?

我认为我们大部分的投资都是在努力为价值找到正确的价格。

And I would say most of our investing is we're trying to get the price right for value.

因此，我们经常以低于我们认为的内在价值的价格买入。

And therefore often we're buying at a discount to what we think is the value of something.

因此，这是需要注意的重要一点。

And therefore that's an important thing to note.

你如何看待地缘政治风险？

How do you think about the geopolitical risk?

我们主要投资于基础设施工业。

We invest in backbone infrastructure largely.

即使我们的私募股权业务也是基础设施工业类型的业务。

And even our private equity businesses are backbone infrastructure type businesses.

因此，对我们来说重要的是前往那些拥有优秀人才的国家，能够在这些国家以我们的标准运营，并且这些国家尊重法治，未来会成为良好的投资目的地。

Therefore, what's important for us is to go to good countries with good people, that you can operate with the standards we operate with, and that those countries respect rule of law and will over time be good places to invest.

我们实际上并不跨境销售。

We don't really sell over borders.

因此，在我们所在的美国，我们拥有数据中心、电信塔、房地产和工业设施，以及我们在美国拥有的所有其他资产。

So in The United States, where we are, we own data centers and telecom towers and real estate and industrial facilities and all of the things that we own in The U.

S.

S.

我们还制造电池等等。

And we make batteries and we etcetera.

所有这些产品都被美国的个人或公司消费。

All all of those are consumed by individuals or companies in The United States.

它们不会被运输出去。

They're not shipped.

我们生产电力。

We make power.

电力在州内使用。

It's used within state.

所以政治对我们来说并不重要。

So politics don't really matter to us.

你知道，它们在边际上有一定影响。

You know, they do in the margin.

但总体而言，只要你投资于一个好国家，你就没问题。

But on balance, as long as you invest in a good country, you're going to be fine.

所谓‘好’，我猜你指的是法治稳定。

And by good, I'm assuming you mean stable rule of law.

你觉得‘好’是怎样的

How do you think Good you're

对我们来说，它必须足够大，才能进行投资。

means for us it has to be large enough to be able to invest.

我们不能只因为国家小就不投资，并不是因为它们不好。

Like we can't have small countries just not because they're not good.

它们不是合适的投资地点。

They're not good place to invest.

只是对我们来说没有意义。

It's just not meaningful to us.

当你有万亿美元规模时，收益或不利影响。

When you have a trillion dollars things, the benefit or the or the un Drawback.

是的。

Yeah.

缺点是你不能去一个小国家。

The drawback is that is that you can't go to a little country.

比如，我们不可能投资一亿美元。

Like, we just we can't invest a $100,000,000.

这对我们来说没有意义。

It's not relevant to us.

没错。

Right.

所以我们需要大的市场。

So we need large places.

我们希望它们能符合我们全球运营的标准。

We'd like them to have We need to operate with the standards that we operate globally with.

我们希望它们有大的GDP。

We'd like to have large GDP.

我们希望它们的经济在增长。

We'd like to have it growing.

我们还希望有一个相对稳定的货币，不一定非要比其他所有国家都表现更好。

And we'd like to have a currency that's relatively it doesn't have to grow better than everyone else.

只要保持稳定就行。

It just has to stay consistent.

如果波动剧烈，那就不好了。

If it's highly volatile, not good.

如果长期持续下跌，那就更糟了。

If it goes down over the long periods of time, bad.

所以我们更倾向于选择具备这些因素的国家，但归根结底还是看价格，有些国家具备所有条件，但我们要等到合适时机再投资。

So we'd rather pick countries with Those factors and but it all comes down to price, like some some have all that and then you do you invest when you can.

但对我们来说，必须在当地有人员。

But but for us, we have to have people on the ground.

所以我们非常系统地挑选这些国家。

So we pick those countries very methodically.

我们会派人员常驻当地。

We put people on the ground.

我们会不时地进行新的投资，当发现机会时。

We invest from time to time, new investments when we find the opportunities.

但我们不会随意进入某个国家。

But we don't randomly go to countries.

这可不是一种随意的生意。

Like, this is not a random business.

这需要付出艰苦的努力。

This is hard work.

因此，我们必须身处该国，以便在机会来临时能够迅速行动。

Therefore, we have to be in country, be able to action an opportunity when it comes.

因此，如果我们不在某个国家，有人打电话给我们提供机会时，我们只能抱歉地说，我们还没有准备好开展这项业务。

And therefore, if we're not in a country and somebody calls us with an opportunity, we just say, sorry, we're not set up to do that.

做不到。

No can do.

看起来你们的秘诀不仅在于提前做好这些准备，而且似乎在引入外部投资者之前，你们就已经验证了这个模式。

It seems like part of your secret sauce is not only doing that in advance, but also you seem to prove the model before you take outside investors into it.

你知道，我会说我们自己拥有大量资本。

You know, like I would say we have a large amount of capital ourselves.

我们一直用自己的钱进行投资。

We've always invested ourselves.

我们希望先用自己的钱犯错，而不是用别人的钱。

We wanna make mistakes with our own money first, not with others.

我们与客户之间的声誉是我们唯一拥有的东西。

Our reputation with our clients is the only thing we have.

这对我们来说真的非常重要。

And and that's really important to us.

我们试图逐步提升价格。

And and we try to incrementally grow to prices.

例如，我们在美国拥有一个庞大的平台。

For example, we we have a massive platform in The United States.

所以我们最初是在美国开展保险业务的。

So we started insurance in The United States.

现在我们要去英国，做和在美国同样的事情。

Now we're going to The UK to do the same thing we did in The United States.

我们刚刚获得了开展这项业务的许可。

And we just got licensed to do that.

但我们现在已经拥有了从美国积累的所有经验。

But it's we now have all the experience we have from The United States.

我们可能根本无法在那里起步。

We probably couldn't have started there.

因为我们当时在那里并没有像在这里这样强大的影响力。

Because we just didn't have the same presence there as we had here.

我们总是以同一个问题结束这些访谈，那就是对你来说，成功意味着什么？

And we always end these interviews with the same question, which is what is success for you?

布鲁克菲尔德是当今世界最杰出的投资管理机构之一。

Brookfield is one of the great investment management groups in the world today.

二十年后的今天，成功的标志是它变得更大、更广泛、更贴近客户需求，并持续为所有人做着今天所做的事情，同时获得合理的回报并保护下行风险。

And twenty years from today, success is that it is bigger, broader, more relevant to clients and continues to do exactly what it does today for everybody and earn reasonable returns with downside risk protected.

如果我们能做到这一点，就会感受到这一切的成功。

And if we can do that, we'll have felt success of all of this.

感谢收听并与我们一同学习。

Thanks for listening and learning with us.

前端街头博客是你了解我的新书《清晰思考：将普通时刻转化为非凡成果》的地方。

The front end street blog is where you can learn more about my new book, Clear Thinking, Turning Ordinary Moments Into Extraordinary Results.

这是一本变革性的指南，为你提供掌握命运、提升决策能力并为无与伦比的成功做好准备的工具。

It's a transformative guide that hands you the tools to master your fate, sharpen your decision making, and set yourself up for unparalleled success.

了解更多，请访问 fs.blog/clear。

Learn more at fs.blog/clear.

我们下次再见。

Until next time.