The Knowledge Project - 摩根·豪塞尔:致富并守住财富 封面

摩根·豪塞尔:致富并守住财富

Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich

本集简介

致富所需的技能与保持富裕所需的技能截然不同。 很少有人比摩根·豪塞尔更深刻理解这一现象。他通过研究世界上最富有的家族,学习他们如何积累财富,以及如何迅速挥霍殆尽,从而提炼出关于财富、幸福与金钱的独特洞见。 在这次对话中,谢恩与豪塞尔探讨了风险承担、财富积累和财务独立的多个方面。 摩根解释了理解个人财务目标的重要性,以及社会比较的危害;他向大家坦白了自己的一项个人财务“错误”,而正是这个错误让他每晚睡得更香;他还解释了为什么世界上最贫穷的人 disproportionately 购买彩票——以及为什么这种行为完全合理。他们还谈及了成长环境对财务行为的影响、富有与富裕之间的区别,以及复利在财务成功中的关键作用。当然,我们不可能请到摩根·豪塞尔这样的作家做客播客却不问他的创作过程,因此摩根最后分享了关于叙事、写作方法,以及以身作则向孩子传授财务价值观的重要性。 摩根·豪塞尔是协作基金(Collaborative Fund)的合伙人。此前,他曾是“富达基金”(The Motley Fool)的分析师。他两度荣获美国商业编辑与作家协会“最佳商业写作奖”,并被哥伦比亚新闻评论选入“最佳商业写作选集”。他著有两本书:《金钱心理学》和《一如既往》。 -- 通讯简报——《大脑食粮》简报每周日为您提供可操作的洞察与深思熟虑的观点。阅读仅需5分钟,完全免费。了解更多并订阅:https://fs.blog/newsletter/ -- 升级服务——如果你想在每集结尾听到我的思考与反思,请加入我们的会员计划:https://fs.blog/membership/,获取你专属的私人播客源。 -- 关注我:https://beacons.ai/shaneparrish -- 赞助商 Protekt:为健康习惯提供简单解决方案。结账时输入代码“Knowledge”,即可享受订单30%折扣。https://protekt.com/knowledge -- 时间戳: (00:00) 引言 (04:46) 风险与收入 (07:40) 关于运气与技能 (10:10) 巴菲特的秘密策略 (12:28) 建立财富所需的关键特质 (16:20) 豪塞尔的资本配置策略 (16:48) 指数基金解析 (20:59) 期望与移动的目标 (22:17) 你的房子:资产还是负债? (27:39) 我们深信的金钱谎言 (32:12) 如何避免地位游戏 (35:04) 父母传授的金钱准则 (40:15) 富有 vs. 富裕 (41:46) 豪塞尔的榜样人物 (42:48) 为什么富人会不快乐? (45:59) 成功如何埋下平庸的种子 (49:50) 关于风险 (50:59) 赚钱、花钱、存钱 (52:50) 范德比尔特家族如何挥霍财富 (1:04:11) 如何管理你的期望 (01:06:26) 如何与孩子谈论金钱 (01:09:52) 资本主义面临的最大风险 (01:13:56) 复利的魔力 (01:16:18) 摩根如何阅读 (01:22:42) 如何讲出最好的故事 (01:24:42) 摩根如何写作 (01:35:42) 分享智慧与对成功的思考 了解更多关于你的广告选择。访问 megaphone.fm/adchoices

双语字幕

仅展示文本字幕,不包含中文音频;想边听边看,请使用 Bayt 播客 App。

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没有错失恐惧症是最重要的理财技能。

Not having FOMO is the single most important financial skill.

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我认为这一点至关重要,如果你容易受到错失恐惧症的影响,你就永远无法想象自己一生中积累大量财富。

I think it's so important that you cannot ever imagine accumulating significant wealth over your lifetime if you are susceptible to FOMO.

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比如说,如果你真想拥有一个能让你积累财富的特质,那唯一最重要的就是没有错失恐惧症。

Like, if there's literally one thing, like, one trait that you want that's gonna allow you to accumulate wealth, it's the lack of FOMO.

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为什么指数基金表现得如此出色?

Why do index funds work so well?

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两个原因。

Two reasons.

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一是,总是只有极少数股票贡献了大部分收益。

One is it's always gonna be the case that a very small number of stocks account for the majority of returns.

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另一个是,我认为无论是投资争论、储蓄还是消费争论,人们其实并没有在真正地辩论。

The other is, I think, the whether it's, like, an investing debate or a saving or spending debate, they're not actually debating.

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这只是不同性格的人在互相说话。

It's people with different personalities talking over each other.

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一旦你接受了这一点,就没有唯一正确的答案。

And once you come to terms with that, there's not one right answer for any of this.

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富有和财富之间有什么区别?

What's the difference between being rich and being wealthy?

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富有意味着你有足够的钱支付房贷、车贷。

Rich is when you have enough money to make your mortgage payment, payment, make your car payment.

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你每个月都能还清信用卡账单。

You can pay off your credit card bill every month.

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我认为,财富意味着你拥有一定程度的独立性和自主权。

Wealthy, I think, is when you have a degree of independence and autonomy.

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这里奇怪的是,财富是你没有花掉的钱。

The weird thing here is that wealth is the money that you don't spend.

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我们换一个话题,谈谈阅读和写作。

Let's switch gears and talk about reading and writing.

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你如何选择读什么?

How do you select what you read?

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我听说过这个观点。

I heard this idea.

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我想这是很多年前帕特里克·奥肖内西说的,你需要一个宽泛的入口和一个严格的筛选机制。

I think it was from Patrick O'Shaughnessy many years ago who said, you want a wide funnel and a tight filter.

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你是我们这一代最出色的故事讲述者之一。

You're one of the best storytellers of our generation.

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教我如何像摩根·豪塞尔那样讲故事。

Teach me how to tell a story like Morgan Housel.

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我认为有两点。

I think it's two things.

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第一是

One is

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欢迎来到知识项目,这是一档每两周更新一次的播客,探索他人那些深刻的思想、实用的方法和思维模型。

Welcome to the knowledge project, the biweekly podcast exploring the powerful ideas, practical methods, and mental models of others.

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在这个知识就是力量的世界里,这个播客是你掌握他人已发现的精华的工具箱。

In a world where knowledge is power, this podcast is your toolkit for mastering the best of what other people have already figured out.

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我是主持人,谢恩·帕里什。

I'm your host, Shane Parish.

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在我们开始之前,我想请你帮个小忙。

Before we dive in, I have a quick favor to ask.

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如果你喜欢这个节目,并且正在使用苹果播客、Spotify 或其他平台收听,请花一点时间现在点击关注按钮。

If you're enjoying the show and listening on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or any other platform, please take a moment and hit the follow button now.

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关注者越多,我们就能邀请到更好的嘉宾来与你分享他们的知识。

The more followers we have, the better guests we can bring on to share their knowledge with you.

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谢谢。

Thank you.

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如果你想将你的学习提升到一个新的层次,可以考虑加入我们在 fs.blog/membership 的会员计划。

If you wanna take your learning to the next level, consider joining our membership program at fs.blog/membership.

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作为会员,你将获得我在每集末尾的个人反思、提前收听节目、无广告(包括本条广告)、独家内容、精心编辑的文本稿,以及更多福利。

As a member, you'll get my personal reflections at the end of every episode, early access to episodes, no ads including this, exclusive content, hand edited transcripts, and so much more.

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更多详情请查看节目说明中的链接。

Check out the link in the show notes for more.

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今天,我的嘉宾是摩根·豪塞尔,畅销书《金钱心理学》和《一如既往》的作者。

Today, my guest is Morgan Housel, the bestselling author of The Psychology of Money and Same as Ever.

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摩根对金融、人类行为和生活的独特见解,改变了无数人,包括我自己,也改变了我对待生活和投资的方式。

Morgan's unique perspective on finance, human behavior, and life has transformed countless people, including myself and how I approach life and investing.

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在这期节目中,我们探讨了‘为自己定位,以参与长期博弈’这一强大理念。

In this episode, we explore the powerful concept of positioning yourself to play the long game.

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摩根分享了他对培养长期思维的理解,以及你可以采取哪些实际步骤在自己的生活中建立这种视角。

Morgan shares his insights on what it means to adopt a long term mindset and the practical steps you can take to cultivate this perspective in your own life.

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虽然这场对话的大部分内容是关于金钱——如何赚取和保有金钱——但你会发现,这其实是一个理解心理学和人性的深刻视角。

While much of this conversation is about money, including how to make it and how to keep it, you'll discover that it's really a revealing lens for understanding psychology and human nature.

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我们讨论了如何认识到不同的人在人生中玩着不同的游戏,以及这一洞察如何帮助你做出更好的决策。

We talk about how recognizing that different people are playing different games in life and how this insight can help you make better decisions.

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我们还谈到了写作。

We also talk about writing.

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作为一名作家,摩根已经掌握了用故事来强化统计数据的艺术。

As a writer, Morgan has mastered the art of using stories as leverage for statistics.

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他分享了自己的写作方法,如何构建引人入胜的叙事,让复杂的思想变得通俗易懂且令人难忘。

He shares his approach to writing and how he crafts compelling narratives that make complex ideas accessible and memorable.

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我们还探讨了‘富有’与‘富裕’之间的关键区别,理解这一差异如何改变你对金钱乃至成功的看法。

We also explore the critical distinction between rich and wealthy and how understanding this difference can transform your relationship with not only money but success.

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通过收听本集,你将获得大量洞见和实用策略,帮助你应对投资、个人成长以及人生本身的挑战。

By listening to this episode, you'll gain a wealth of insights and practical strategies for navigating the challenges of investing, personal growth, and life itself.

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摩根的智慧将激励你换一种方式思考,拥抱长期主义,并在人生旅途中找到更深的意义与快乐。

Morgan's wisdom will inspire you to think different, embrace the long game, and find greater meaning and joy in your journey.

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现在,让我们开始聆听与学习。

It's time to listen and learn.

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《知识项目》由Protech赞助。

The Knowledge Project is sponsored by Protech.

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Protech相信,当你成为最好的自己时,你才能更好地服务他人。

Protech believes that when you are your best self, you are of the most service to others.

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醒来后立即补水,最好在喝第一杯咖啡之前,以及在锻炼前、锻炼中或锻炼后。

Try hydration immediately upon waking, before your first cup of coffee, and before, during, or after your workout.

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睡前一小时好好休息,获得你人生中最棒的睡眠。

Try rest one hour before bed and get the best sleep of your life.

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改善你的补水和睡眠,成为最好的自己。

Improve your hydration and your sleep and become the best version of yourself.

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在 protech.com/knowledge 下单享受 30% 折扣。

Get 30% off your order at protech.com/knowledge.

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访问 protekt.com/knowledge,或在结账时使用代码 knowledge,享受 30% 折扣。

That's protekt.com/knowledge or use code knowledge at the checkout for 30% off.

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我想先谈一个看似矛盾的现象。

I wanna start with a bit of a paradox.

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我们越觉得钱少,就越愿意冒险。

The less money we seem to have, the more risks we're willing to take.

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你能给我解释一下吗?

Can you explain that to me?

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丹尼尔·卡尼曼曾说过,当你所有的选择都很糟糕时,你冒险的意愿会急剧上升,因为你已经没什么可失去的了。

Daniel Kahneman said something along the lines of, when all your options are bad, your willingness to take a risk explodes, because you got nothing else to lose.

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我认为你在生活的许多领域都能看到这种现象。

And I think you see this in a lot of areas in life.

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我经常看到的一个例子,是美国的一大新闻话题。

One that I see it all the time in, that is a big news story in The United States.

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我不知道加拿大是不是这样,但在美国,我们每年在彩票上的花费大约是1000亿美元。

I don't know if it's the same in Canada, but in America, we spend something like a $100,000,000,000 a year on lottery tickets.

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1000亿美元。

A $100,000,000,000.

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人们在彩票上花的钱太多了。

It's massive that people spend on lottery tickets.

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如果你深入研究购买者是谁,会发现几乎全是穷人。

And if you dig into who's buying it, it's almost exclusively poor people.

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他们购买了绝大多数彩票,而且你越穷,买的彩票就越多。

They buy the vast majority of lottery tickets, and the poorer you are, the more lottery tickets you buy.

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有些人甚至根本没钱买食物,或者无家可归,但他们仍会把仅有的一点钱拿去7-11买几张刮刮乐。

And these are some people for whom they literally can't buy food, or they might be homeless, and whatever little money they have, they go into a seven eleven and buy some scratcher tickets.

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你可能会觉得:‘你们这些人真是傻,这是在干什么?’

And you might look at that and say like, you idiots, what are you doing?

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这是我见过的最蠢的想法。

This is the dumbest idea I've ever seen.

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也许这样的看法是对的。

And and maybe that's the right answer.

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也许你就可以就此打住了。

Like, maybe you could just stop there.

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但在卡尼曼的框架下,我觉得这开始变得有那么一点道理了。

But in Kahneman's framework, I think it starts to make a little bit more sense.

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如果一个人处于这样的境地,在他心里至少觉得:我加不了薪,无法发展事业,得不到晋升,只能困在最低工资的工作里,如果这就是他的心态,那么买彩票可能是他一生中唯一一次能对自己说并相信:这真是我摆脱困境的唯一机会。

If you have someone in a situation like this, who in their mind at least, they think, I can't get a raise, I can't build a career, I can't get promoted, I'm kind of stuck in minimum wage job, if that's their mindset, then buying a lottery ticket might be the only time in their life where they can say to themselves and believe, this is my literally ticket out of here.

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这是我翻身的唯一机会。

This is the only chance that I have to get ahead.

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所以在这种情况下,这开始变得有那么一点道理了。

And so it starts to make a little bit more sense in that situation.

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也许你可以将这种情况与净资产非常高的人进行对比。

And maybe you contrast that with someone who has a very high net worth.

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他们可能会想,看吧,我可以把所有钱都投入国债,仅靠利息就能过完余生,当你拥有这么多时,就不需要承担风险了。

They might be like, look, I could just put all my money in treasuries and just live for the rest of my life just off the interest, and when you have so much, you don't need to take the risk.

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这归根结底是视角的问题,对吧?

Well, it comes down to perspective, right?

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所以,如果我能像你一样看到你所看到的,感受到你所感受到的,那么你的选择就是合理的。

So if I could see what you see and feel what you feel, that decision would be rational.

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是的。

Yeah.

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生活中有太多事情,你看到别人做出的决定——不只是关于金钱,还有政治、健康选择等等——都会强烈反对。

There's so many things in life where you can look at other people and the decisions they make, not just in money, but for politics, their health decisions, whatever it might be, and fiercely disagree with it.

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但容易被忽视的是,如果我处在你的位置,经历过你所经历的一切,拥有和你相同的家庭背景和基因,我也会做出完全相同的决定。

But what's easy to overlook is that if I were in your shoes and had experienced what you had, had the same family dynamic that you do, the same DNA that you do, I would do the exact same thing.

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我认为,这才是更值得你自问的问题。

And I think that is a more important question to ask yourself.

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比如,如果我出生在不同的时代、不同的家庭、不同的国家,我会做出哪些不同的财务决策?

Like, what financial decisions would I make differently if I were born in a different era, born to different parents, born in a different country?

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我认为你无法诚实地回答这个问题,因为你并不知道,但你知道会有许多完全超出你控制的事情会完全不同。

And I think you can't answer that question honestly, because you don't know, but you know there would be a lot of things different that are completely outside of your control.

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你出生的地点和时间会产生巨大的影响。

Where and when you were born would have a massive impact.

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你和我不应该假装,如果我们出生在20世纪60年代的尼日利亚,就会和今天一样对长期投资股市持有同样的看法。

You and I should not pretend that if we were born in the nineteen sixties in Nigeria, that we would have the same views about investing in the stock market over time that you and I do today.

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这其实触及了运气这个话题,当提到运气时,很多人会说一些听起来很聪明的话,而我强烈不同意。

This kind of gets to the topic of luck, and a lot of people, when you bring up luck, they will say something that sounds smart that I fiercely disagree with.

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他们会说,比如,你应该扩大你的运气面。

They say like, oh, you should increase the surface area of your luck.

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你应该说,我越努力,运气就越好。

You should like, oh, the harder I work, the luckier I get.

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差不多就是这类说法。

It was like some variation of that.

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我说,不对。

And I'm like, no.

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如果你能做些什么来改变某个结果的概率,那就不叫运气,这是定义问题。

If you can do something that changes your odds of an outcome, it's not luck by definition.

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对我来说,最大的运气就是你出生在什么地方、什么时代。

Luck to me, the biggest are where and when you were born.

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你无法控制它。

You can't control it.

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比尔·盖茨也无法控制它。

Bill Gates couldn't control it.

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埃隆·马斯克也无法控制它,但它对你人生走向的影响巨大。

Elon Musk couldn't control it, but it has a massive impact on where you're going to go in life.

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对我来说,这就是运气。

That to me is what luck is.

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那是你真正完全无法掌控的东西。

It's what you truly have absolutely no control over.

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而且不仅仅是你出生的国家,还有你出生的家庭社会经济背景、你上过的学校。

And then there's also the the not only the country you're born into, but the socioeconomic households you're born into, the schools that you go to.

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这其中有多少是先天因素,多少是后天培养,又有多少是主动选择的培养呢?

How much of this is nature versus nurture versus chosen nurture?

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我认为最令人震惊的数据是,兄弟之间的收入相关性比身高或体重的相关性还高。

The stat that I think is so astounding is that income among brothers is more correlated than height or weight.

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这意味着,如果你有一个又富有又高大的兄弟,你更有可能也富有,而不是更高。

So basically, means if you have a brother who is rich and tall, you are more likely to also be rich than you are tall.

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这种相关性甚至超过了你们彼此之间共享的DNA。

It's more correlated than the literal DNA that you're that you're that you're sharing with each other.

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你看。

Look.

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这完全是正相关吗?

Is it is it a perfect correlation?

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不是。

No.

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一个人有可能在贫困家庭中长大,却变得富有吗?

Are there is it possible to be raised by a poor family and become rich?

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当然可能。

Of course.

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一个人有可能在富裕家庭中长大,却最终流落街头吗?

Is it possible to be raised by a rich family and end up in the streets?

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当然可能。

Of course.

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但这两者之间存在着非常强的相关性。

But there's a very strong correlation between those two.

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我觉得,当人们谈到运气时,往往会变得敏感,因为如果我说你运气好,听起来像是我在嫉妒;如果我说我运气好,又会觉得自己的成就被贬低了。

I think people can get kind of testy when you talk about luck, because if I say that you got lucky, I look jealous, and if I say that I got lucky, I feel diminished in what I'm doing in life.

Speaker 0

所以运气起着至关重要的作用,但人们却很容易忽视它在世界上产生的影响。

So it plays a massive role, but it's very easy to ignore the impact that it has in the world.

Speaker 1

我们该如何区分运气和技能各自的贡献?或者说,哪些是我们自己可以重复做到的?

How do we break down that contribution between luck and skill, or what's repeatable on our part?

Speaker 0

与其问什么是运气,

Rather than saying, what is luck?

Speaker 0

我认为更重要的是问:什么是可重复的?

I think it's important to just say, what is repeatable?

Speaker 0

有哪些事情发生了,是我可以再次做到的?

What is something that happened that I could do again?

Speaker 0

如果我们看看巴菲特,这位站在我们身后的人,让我们回顾他的一生。

And if we look at Buffett, this guy standing behind our shoulder here, and and let's let's look at the course of his life.

Speaker 0

他无法重现上世纪五十年代的交易环境,那种让他能以三倍市盈率买入蓝筹股的条件,无论当时他具体在做什么。

I cannot, he cannot recreate the trading conditions that existed in the nineteen fifties that allowed him to buy blue chip stocks at three times earnings, whatever it was back then that he was doing.

Speaker 0

他无法重现那种环境。

He can't recreate that.

Speaker 0

他再也做不到了。

He couldn't do it again.

Speaker 0

但我和你,或者任何在听的人,能否尝试复制他的耐心,或他的一些风险框架?

But could I or you or anyone else listening try to recreate his patience, some of his risk framework?

Speaker 0

是的。

Like, yes.

Speaker 0

所以这是我们应当关注的事情。

So that's something we should pay attention to.

Speaker 0

你要找到那些可重复的、你可以再次做的事情,这些才是你最应该关注的。

You want to find what is repeatable, and what you could do again, and those are the things you should pay the most attention to.

Speaker 1

我觉得这很有趣,对吧?

I think that's fascinating, right?

Speaker 1

因为当我们看巴菲特时,我们想要的是结果,而我们从不思考促成那个结果的所有因素。

Because when we look at Buffett, what we want is the outcome, and what we don't think about is all the things that go into creating that outcome.

Speaker 1

那么,在他不同年代的这些做法中,什么是始终不变的呢?

So what stays the same between all these different decades where he's done this, right?

Speaker 1

他从购买格雷厄姆的净净股,到收购优秀企业,再到耐心等待,甚至每十年才一次性投入大量现金。

So he's done it from buying net net Ben Graham stocks, all the way to buying great businesses, all the way to the patience to do nothing, and then once every ten years deploy a whole bunch of cash.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

在你看来,这段时期中什么是始终如一的?

What is consistent across that period in your mind?

Speaker 0

有两个关键点,我们可以列出几十个与巴菲特一致的特质,但最重要的两个是持久力,以及与之相关的、控制下行风险的能力,这让他能比其他人坚持得更久。

Two of the big ones, we could come up with dozens of things that are consistent with someone like Buffett, but the two big ones are endurance, and maybe tied to that, capping a downside risk that allows him to stick around for longer than anyone else.

Speaker 0

还有一种心理特质,就是比任何人都更想坚持下去。

There's also a psychological trait of wanting to keep going longer than anyone else.

Speaker 0

我在我的书中提到过一个数据:巴菲特99%的净资产都是在60岁之后积累的。

I use a stat in in my book that 99% of Buffett's net worth was accumulated after his sixtieth birthday.

Speaker 0

比如,绝大多数人,包括我和可能你,如果在60岁时成为亿万富翁,就会停下来了。

Like, the vast majority of people, including me and maybe you, if we became a billionaire at age 60, would be done.

Speaker 0

你会搬去佛罗里达,买一座私人岛屿,然后从此幸福地生活下去。

You should move to Florida and buy a private island and, like, live happily ever after.

Speaker 0

而他如此成功,却还能继续全速前进整整三十三年,至今依然比以往更强劲,这是一种非常独特的特质,对他的成功起到了至关重要的作用。

For him to be that successful and to keep going full blast for what's now another thirty three years and still going stronger than ever is a very unique characteristic that plays a massive role in his success.

Speaker 0

如果巴菲特在60岁或50岁就退休了,像普通人那样,你根本不会听说过他。

If Buffett had retired at age 60 or 50, like a normal person would have in that situation, you would have never heard of him.

Speaker 0

他如此成功的原因就在于耐力,这背后既有心理层面的因素,也有财务层面的因素。

The whole reason he's so successful is just the endurance, and there's a, again, there's a psychological and a financial component to that.

Speaker 0

从财务上永不被击垮,以及那种让他能近乎一个世纪持续全速前进的心理素质。

Never getting wiped out financially, and the psychology that will allow him to keep going full blast for nearly a century on end now.

Speaker 0

但这一点

But that

Speaker 1

听起来在学术上是正确的,但在性格上却极其困难。

sounds academically correct, but in temperament, incredibly difficult.

Speaker 1

因为我看到我的朋友们靠比特币之类的东西发财了。

Because I see my friends getting rich off Bitcoin or something.

Speaker 1

这让我想改变自己原本的耐心。

And that makes me wanna change the patience that I have.

Speaker 1

我知道如何随着时间的推移变得富有。

I know how to get wealthy over time.

Speaker 1

历史上已经证明,真正有效的方法是存钱、保持极大的耐心,让财富几十年如一日地复利增长,然后某一天你突然醒来,发现自己已经拥有巨额财富和财务自由。

We know historically that what's worked is saving money, being very patient, letting it compound decade after decade, and then all of sudden you wake up with a ton of money and financial independence.

Speaker 1

但当我看到邻居比我更快致富时,我就想缩短这个时间线。

But if I see my neighbor getting richer quicker than I am, it makes me want to accelerate that timeline.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

而我的缺乏耐心会改变最终的结果。

And my lack of patience sort of changes the outcome.

Speaker 0

没有错失恐惧症(FOMO)是最重要的理财技能。

Not having FOMO is the single most important financial skill.

Speaker 0

我认为这一点极其重要,如果你容易受到错失恐惧症的影响,就不可能在一生中积累可观的财富。

I think it's so important that you cannot ever imagine accumulating significant wealth over your lifetime if you are susceptible to FOMO.

Speaker 0

如果说真的只有一件事、一个特质能让你积累财富,那就是没有错失恐惧症。

Like, if there's literally one thing, like one trait that you want that's gonna allow you to accumulate wealth, it's the lack of FOMO.

Speaker 0

尤其是在当今的市场环境下,社交媒体、Reddit、Twitter等让一切变得如此疯狂。

Particularly in modern markets that can get so crazy with social media and Reddit and Twitter and everything.

Speaker 0

如果你容易受到错失恐惧症的影响,那么从长远来看,你毫无希望。

If you are susceptible to FOMO, there's no hope for you over time.

Speaker 0

我真的不认为这是夸大其词,能够看到邻居比你富裕得多却不受影响,在当今时代至关重要,却很容易被忽视。

I really don't think that's an exaggeration, and that being able to see your neighbor get much richer than you, and not being impacted by it is so incredibly critical and easy to overlook these days.

Speaker 0

我并没有多少金融技能。

I don't have that many financial skills.

Speaker 0

我永远不可能成为选股高手。

I could never be a stock picker.

Speaker 0

我永远不可能成为交易员。

I could never be a trader.

Speaker 0

我没有足够的智慧或能力做到这一点,但我觉得自己至少从未那么容易受到FOMO的影响。

I don't have the intellect or the horsepower to pull that off, but I feel like I've never been at least that susceptible to FOMO.

Speaker 0

看到别人致富,我完全不介意。

It doesn't bother me in the slightest to watch other people getting rich.

Speaker 0

我们共同的好友布伦特·贝肖尔有一句我很喜欢的话。

Brent Beshore, our mutual good friend, had a quote that I love.

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他说:我完全乐于看着你通过我永远不会想做的事变得非常富有。

He said, I am perfectly happy watching you get very rich doing something that I would never wanna do.

Speaker 0

我认为这样表述非常好。

And I think that's a great way to frame it.

Speaker 0

我不因看到别人随着时间变得比我更富有而感到嫉妒或焦虑。

I don't get jealous or anxious to watch other people get richer than I am over time.

Speaker 0

我的投资策略是尽可能长期持有指数基金,做一个在较长时间内表现优于平均水平的普通人。

My investing strategy is to own index funds for as long as I possibly can, to be average for an above average period of time.

Speaker 0

我认为这实际上会带来惊人的结果。

And I think that will actually lead to an incredible outcome.

Speaker 0

这不仅会实现我为家庭设定的财务目标,而且我认为在长期来看,它会让你至少跻身于长期复利投资人群的前十分之一。

Not only will it achieve the financial goals that I have for my family, but I think over a long period of time, it will put you in the top decile at least of people who compounding money over time.

Speaker 1

我认为很难意识到,短期最优和长期最优往往是两回事。

I think that's really hard to appreciate that what's short term optimal and what's long term optimal are often two different things.

Speaker 0

完全是两回事。

Completely different things.

Speaker 0

霍华德·马克斯谈过他认识的一位投资者,这位投资者在任何一年里都从未跑赢过一半的同行。

Howard Marks talked about this investor that he knew who, in any given year, he was never in the top half versus his peers.

Speaker 0

他从未在其他投资者中进入前50%。

He was never in the top 50% of other investors.

Speaker 0

但在二十年的时间里,他进入了前4%,因为那些在任何一年里都超越他的人都无法持续下去。

And over a twenty year period, he was in, the top 4%, because everyone else who was beating him in a given year couldn't keep it going.

Speaker 0

那么,你的终极目标是什么?

And so, like, what's your ultimate goal?

Speaker 0

投资的很大一部分就是定义你所玩的游戏,我并不贬低或批评那些进行短期交易的人。

So much of investing is just define the game that you're playing, and I don't look down upon or criticize people who are short term traders.

Speaker 0

也许那是他们的游戏,对他们或他们的投资者来说是合理的。

Maybe that's their game and for their investors or for their like, it makes sense for them.

Speaker 0

我的游戏是不同的。

My game is is different.

Speaker 0

我认为你的游戏也不同。

I think your game is different.

Speaker 0

大多数人的游戏可能略有不同,重要的是,如果你的目标是投资未来二三十年甚至五十年,就不要从那些只玩下一季度交易游戏的人那里获取指引,投资中的许多风险就源于此。

Most people's game might be a little bit different, and what's important is that if your game is to invest for the next twenty, thirty, fifty years, that you're not taking your cues from people who are playing a different game of trading for the next quarter, and that's where a lot of danger in investing comes from.

Speaker 1

你改变了我的资本配置策略。

You've changed my capital allocation strategy.

Speaker 1

对话?确实如此。

Conversations That's true.

Speaker 1

我们的散步,完全没错。

Our walks, totally, yeah.

Speaker 0

怎么会?

How so?

Speaker 0

你以前做什么,现在不做了?

What did you used to do that you don't anymore?

Speaker 1

我们以前做了很多私人投资,现在主要是指数基金。

We used to do a lot more private investments, and now it's mostly index funds.

Speaker 1

当收益通过股息等方式流入时,就直接再投资到指数基金中。

And as things sort of roll in through dividends or whatever, it just gets reinvested in index funds.

Speaker 1

但真正改变这一切的是我们的对话。

But it's our conversations that change that.

Speaker 0

很好。

Well, great.

Speaker 0

这让我既开心又紧张,因为我竟然产生了影响。

That makes me happy and nervous that I'm having influence.

Speaker 0

当人们谈到指数基金时,有些人会问:有什么保证它在未来五十年仍然有效吗?

One thing that some people will say when you talk about index funds is, what is the guarantee that this is going to work for the next fifty years?

Speaker 0

好吧,我知道它在过去五十年是有效的。

Okay, I understand it works in the past fifty years.

Speaker 0

我的回答总是:没有任何保证。

And my response is always like, nothing.

Speaker 0

没有任何保证说它一定会成功。

There's no guarantee that this is going to work.

Speaker 0

它完全有可能因为各种原因失败。

It's very possible that it doesn't work out for whatever reason.

Speaker 0

在二十世纪二十年代末到五十年代期间,回报率曾经非常糟糕。

And there have been periods from the, you know, the late nineteen twenties and nineteen fifties where the returns were terrible.

Speaker 0

甚至从2000年到2010年,指数基金的实际回报率几乎为零。

Or even from 2000 to 2010, you had basically 0% real returns in index funds.

Speaker 0

所以它远非完美。

So it's not perfect in the slightest.

Speaker 0

没有任何东西能保证它在未来会有效或令人满意。

Nothing guarantees that it's gonna work or be satisfactory over time.

Speaker 0

但我觉得,当你考虑到投入的努力——实际上几乎不需要任何努力,以及如今几乎为零的费用时,

But I think when you adjust it for the effort that is put in, the lack of effort that's put in, basically zero effort to do this, and you adjust it for the fees, which round to zero now.

Speaker 0

在综合考虑了所有这些因素后,这是一种非常有吸引力的长期投资方式。

When you adjust for all those things, it's a very appealing way to invest over time.

Speaker 1

如果我去看你的资产负债表,你的资本配置策略是什么?

If I was to look at your balance sheet, what is your capital allocation strategy?

Speaker 0

我正在想按比例来说,大概有15%到20%是现金,我住的房子,然后是指数基金,以及我在董事会任职的Markel公司的股票。

I'm trying to think of what percentage wise, it's probably something like 15% to 20% cash, the house that I live in, and then index funds, and shares of Markel where I'm on the board of directors.

Speaker 0

就这些了。

And that's it.

Speaker 0

这些就是我所有的资产。

Those my only assets.

Speaker 0

现金、房子、指数基金、马克尔股票。

Cash, house, index funds, Markel stock.

Speaker 0

就这些。

That's it.

Speaker 1

是哪些指数基金?

Which index funds?

Speaker 0

先锋总股票市场指数基金、先锋价值基金,还有一点国际基金。

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index, Vanguard Value Fund, and a little bit of an international fund.

Speaker 1

为什么指数基金表现这么好?

Why do index funds work so well?

Speaker 0

两个原因。

Two reasons.

Speaker 0

一是,总是只有很少一部分股票贡献了大部分收益。

One is it's always gonna be the case that a very small number of stocks account for the majority of returns.

Speaker 0

所以最近,是FANG加上英伟达。

So recently, it's been FANG plus Nvidia.

Speaker 0

如果你在过去十年里没有持有FANG加英伟达这些股票,跑赢市场的几率非常非常低。

If you didn't own those stocks, FANG plus Nvidia over the last decade, your odds of outperforming are are very, very low.

Speaker 0

几率不是零,但如果你没持有这几只股票,难度简直大得离谱。

It's not zero, but it's incredibly hard if you didn't own those few.

Speaker 0

即使你看看一个包含一千只股票的指数基金,比如,你获得的大部分收益很可能来自其中不到二十只股票,而且一直都是这样。

And even if you look at an index fund that owns a thousand stocks, let's say, you're gonna get the majority of returns from probably fewer than 20 of them, and it's always been like that.

Speaker 0

在九十年代,是AOL、思科、微软、戴尔这类公司。

Back in the nineties, it was AOL and Cisco and Microsoft and Dell and those kind of companies.

Speaker 0

上一代人的时候,是通用电气、英特尔这类公司。

In a previous generation, it was General Electric and Intel and those kind of companies.

Speaker 0

回报的分布总是高度集中在少数几只股票上,而持有指数基金就能确保你拥有下一个驱动市场的明星股,因为根本不可能提前知道它们会是谁。

It's always the case that it's very tail driven, the distribution of returns, and owning the index just guarantees that whatever is gonna be the next driver, I own because it's extremely difficult to know what those are gonna be.

Speaker 0

如果你回到2004年,也就是二十年前,试图预测未来二十年里哪些股票会成为大赢家。

If you had gone back to 2004, twenty years ago, and tried to predict what are the big winners gonna be over the next twenty years.

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,这些公司中有一些当时甚至还不存在。

Well, by the way, some of those companies didn't even exist yet.

Speaker 0

Facebook当时甚至都还没成立。

Facebook didn't even exist yet.

Speaker 0

谷歌当时还是家私营公司,或者刚刚在2004年上市。

Google was still a private company, or maybe had just gone public in 2004.

Speaker 0

我认为,要提前准确预测出未来的赢家是极其困难的。

The big winners are, I think, extremely difficult to know with any foresight what it's gonna be.

Speaker 0

如果三年前你就说Nvidia会是其中之一,别人肯定会觉得你疯了。

And if you had suggested even three years ago that Nvidia was gonna be one of them, you would have been like, what?

Speaker 0

这听起来简直荒谬至极。

Like, does it make like like it it would have sounded absurd.

Speaker 0

所以你确保自己持有了那些最终贡献大部分回报的冷门股票。

So you're guaranteeing that you're gonna own the oddballs that account for the majority of the returns over time.

Speaker 0

另一个原因是,人们投入的精力远远不够。

The other is I think the lack of effort that goes into it that is needed.

Speaker 0

投资是人生中为数不多的几个领域之一,你越努力,结果可能反而越差。

Investing is one of the very few endeavors in life where the harder you try, the worse you're probably gonna do.

Speaker 0

当然,也有例外,比如文艺复兴科技公司。

And yes, there are exceptions to that, Renaissance Technologies.

Speaker 0

当然,你可以举出一些非常努力却取得卓越成绩的人,但对绝大多数人来说,你投入的努力与获得的回报之间往往呈负相关。

Of course, you can name the exceptions for people who tried very hard and did very well, but for the vast majority of people, there's gonna be a negative correlation between the effort you put into it, and the results that you got out of it.

Speaker 0

因此,对指数基金采取放任不管的态度非常重要。

And so the leave it alone aspect of of investing of in index funds is very important.

Speaker 0

我特别喜欢的一个数据是,如果你观察道琼斯指数和标普500指数,它们都不是静态的。

One little stat that I love about this is that if you look at both the Dow and the S and P 500, those are not static indexes.

Speaker 0

它们会随着时间变化。

They change over time.

Speaker 0

会有新的成分股被加入。

There are new constituents that are added.

Speaker 0

有些公司倒闭或合并,然后新的公司会被添加进去。

Companies go out of business or they merge, and then new and then new companies are added to that.

Speaker 0

如果你看一下道琼斯指数,我认为有一项研究显示,在过去一百年里,如果当原始成分股公司倒闭或合并时,你不添加新公司,也不剔除任何股票,只是单纯保留原始成分股不动,你的收益反而会优于那些不断被添加和剔除的公司。

If you were to look at the Dow, I think one one one of the studies showed over the last hundred years, if rather than adding a new company when one of the original components went out of business or merged, if you just left it alone, don't add anything else, don't take anything out, just literally take the original components and leave them alone, you would have done better than the companies that were added and removed, added and removed.

Speaker 0

任何对指数进行的主动操作,长期来看往往都是有害的。

Like, any activity that goes into it tends to be detrimental over time.

Speaker 0

我一直觉得这非常有趣。

That's I I I've always thought is is is very fascinating.

Speaker 0

在指数投资领域,几乎没有什么例外情况能证明你投入的努力越多,长期收益就越好。

It's literally like there's very few exceptions in the index world to where the more effort you put into it, the better you're gonna do over time.

Speaker 1

你觉得是因为我们觉得无聊,所以才不愿意这么做吗?

Do you think we find it boring and that's why we don't wanna do it?

Speaker 0

这既是无聊的问题,也是因为‘越少努力,收益越好’这一点违背了直觉。

It's a combination of boredom and just the counterintuition of the less effort, the better we're gonna do.

Speaker 0

因为生活中其他任何事情,无论是健身还是其他方面,都存在正相关关系。

Because any other endeavor in life, whether it's your physical fitness or whatever it might be, there's a positive correlation.

Speaker 0

如果你想变得更健康,你就得锻炼。

If you wanna become in better shape, you exercise.

Speaker 0

你投入更多努力。

You put more effort into it.

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在生活中的大多数追求中,你越努力,表现就会越好,而投资恰恰不是其中之一,而且它如此反直觉,以至于人们最终会自乱阵脚。

In most endeavors in life, the harder you try, the better you're gonna do, and investing is just not one of those, and it's so not intuitive that people end up tripping over themselves.

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我还要说的是,我一点也不反对主动投资。

I would also say too that I am not against active investing in the slightest at all.

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我对那些做得好的人怀有极大的尊重和钦佩,而且那些被抛出的统计数据也是真实的,你知道,90%或更多的共同基金会跑输基准。

I have so much respect and admiration for the people who do it well, and the stats that get thrown around that are true that, you know, 90% or more of mutual funds will underperform the benchmark.

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我对此的回应总是:当然,事情就是这样。

My response to that is always like, of course, that's how it is.

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你不应该期望生活在一个每个试图战胜市场的人都能做到的世界里。

You should not expect to live in a world in which everyone who tries to beat the market can do it.

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当然,事情就是这样,能做到这一点的人非常有天赋,我非常尊重他们。

Of course, that's how it is, and the people who can do it are enormously talented, and I have so much respect for them.

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其中两位就坐在我们身后。

Two of them are sitting behind our shoulders here.

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还有其他人,我知道一些人,他们一直在这方面很成功,我认为未来也会继续成功。

And other people I I know people, you know people, who have been, and I think will continue to be successful at this.

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所以我完全不是一个被动投资的狂热信徒。

So I'm not a passive zealot in the slightest.

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我只是觉得,对我自己和许多其他人来说,这可能是最明智的投资方式。

I just think for myself and many other people, it's probably the smartest way to invest.

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怎么

How

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当你积累和复利增长财富时,如何不让自己的目标不断变化?

do you keep your goalposts from moving as you accumulate and compound wealth?

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首先,我认为每个人——包括我和我妻子——的目标都从未停止过变动,也不应该停止变动。

A, I think everyone's, including my and my wife's, have not stopped moving, nor nor should they.

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我个人并不渴望生活在一个这样的世界里:如果我足够幸运,净资产不断上升,但100%的收益都只转化为储蓄。

I I I don't personally aspire to live in a world where if I'm lucky enough for my net worth to go up, 100% of it just accrues to savings over time.

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那不是我想过的生活。

That's not the life that I wanna live.

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我想拥有美好的生活,有一些很棒的物质享受,和孩子们一起旅行,长期过上优质的生活。

I wanna have a great life with some great material possessions, and travel with my kids, and live well over time.

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如果你的净资产增长了10%,但你的期望却增长了12%,那你就麻烦了。

If your net worth grows 10%, but your expectations grow 12%, that's when you get into trouble.

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这就是两者之间的差距。

This is the gap between the two.

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所以,我要说明的是,这都是我编的。

And so, look, I'm making this up.

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这并不是什么真正的分析,但我敢打赌,如果我的净资产每年增长10%,我们的目标线可能每年只增长了5%。

This is not an actual analysis, but I bet over time, if my net worth has gone up by 10% per year, our goalpost has grown by 5% per year.

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这些数字是我编的,但大致就是这个意思。

I'm making those numbers up, but it's something like that.

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所以,是的,我的家人今天在物质生活上比十年前好了很多,但在这段时间里,我们仍然存下了不少钱。

So yes, my family lives a better life materially today than we did ten years ago, but we still saved lots of money during that period.

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我认为,长期来看,最重要的是你——你知道的,就连以节俭著称的巴菲特和芒格也是如此。

I think that's all that matters over time is that you, you know, and even Buffett and Munger who are, you know, known for being frugal.

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巴菲特住在他26岁时买下的那栋房子里。

Buffett lives in the same house he bought when he was 26.

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是的。

Yes.

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但他也乘坐私人飞机,并在拉古纳海滩拥有一栋美丽的海滨别墅。

But he also flies a private jet and had a beautiful beachfront house in Laguna Beach.

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这些人从未长期过着挥霍无度的生活,我认为这才是真正重要的。

These guys are not living like poppers over time, and that that's what I think is really important.

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关键是确保你的净资产与你的期望之间存在差距。

It's just making sure that there's a gap between your net worth and your expectations.

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似乎我们从社会继承的一个观念是,你住的房子是你最重要的金融资产。

Seems one of the things that we inherit from society is that the house you live in is your prime financial asset.

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对。

Yeah.

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这似乎也是最近才出现的现象,可能在过去三四十年里,这已成为美国人财富的绝大部分。

That seems really recent as well, maybe the last thirty, forty years where that's become the vast majority of wealth for Americans I

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我知道在美国,整个二十世纪现代历史的大部分时间里,实际房价都像煎饼一样平坦。

know in The United States, real home prices for most of modern history in the twentieth century were flat as a pancake.

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耶鲁大学的罗伯特·席勒对此做了大量分析,追踪了自19世纪以来的美国房价,实际数据显示,从大约1940年代到1990年代,全美国的平均房价确实像煎饼一样平坦。

Robert Schiller of Yale did a lot of analysis on this, tracking US home prices since the 1800s, and in real terms, from probably the 1940s through the 1990s, were flat as a pancake on average across The United States.

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然后在过去二十年里,从2003年左右开始的房地产泡沫起,房价开始飙升。

And then in the last twenty years, starting with the housing bubble that started around 2003, they exploded higher.

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当然,之后我们在2008年经历了房地产崩盘,人们以为泡沫就此结束,但随后房价却涨得更高了。

And then, course, we had the housing crash in 2008, and people thought that was the end of the bubble, but then they've exploded higher even more.

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美国的实际房价——我相信加拿大也一样——如今平均而言比2006年泡沫高峰期还要高得多。

And real home prices in in The US, I'm sure it's the same in Canada, are much higher today than they were at the peak of the bubble in 2006 on average.

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当然这其中涉及许多变量,新建住房不足未能跟上代际增长需求,这使得世界在某种程度上两极分化:如果你在过去二十年里任何时期拥有过房产,你可能已经收益颇丰;而如果你今天正在寻找首套房,情况比以往任何时候都更加困难,尤其是现在美国三十年固定利率抵押贷款的利率已达7%或7.5%。

Of course, there's many variables going into that, a lack of building up new homes that didn't keep up with generational growth, and it makes it it kind of bifurcates the world in terms of if you have if you have owned a home for any period over the last twenty years, you've probably done very well, and if you are looking for your first home today, it's harder than it's ever been, particularly now that interest rates in The US are seven or seven and a half percent for thirty year fixed rate mortgage.

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再加上高得离谱的房价——尤其是在人们想居住的大都会区——这完全造成了分化。因为如果你过去十年拥有房产,就可以出售房屋,利用增值的资产净值作为首付去购买另一套价格已被抬高的新房。

Combine that with home prices that are just absurd, particularly in the metro areas that people want to live in, it's completely bifurcated, because if you own a house for the last ten years, you can sell that house and take the equity that has grown in that house to buy a new one, to use for your down payment on the other house whose price has been inflated.

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但如果你是首次尝试进入市场,那简直是个笑话。

But if you're trying to break in for the first time, it's a joke.

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这简直是个笑话。

It's a complete joke.

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所以这是一件非常困难的事。

So it's a very difficult thing.

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我非常同情那些没有父母支持的首次购房者——他们占了绝大多数。

I have a lot of sympathy for the first time home buyer today who does not have parental support, which is the vast majority of them.

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这比以往任何时候都更难,而很少有什么事能像拥有自己居住的房子那样,让你感受到成年生活的稳定,我认为这在人生的许多方面都起着巨大作用。

It's harder than it's ever been, and there are few things that make you feel like you are stable in your adult life than owning the house that you live in, and I think it plays a huge role in a lot of things in life.

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很多人,包括我妻子和我,都希望在买房之后再要孩子。

A lot of people, this would have been the same for my wife and I, don't want to start having kids until they own their home.

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他们希望在开始要孩子之前,先拥有这种稳定感。

They want to have that sense of stability before they start having kids.

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因此,我认为住房负担能力不足会对人口结构和生育率产生影响,这种影响将持续五十年甚至七十年。

So I think the lack of housing affordability has an impact on demographics and having kids over time that will echo for the next fifty or seventy years.

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所以它在社会现状中扮演着至关重要的角色。

So it plays a huge role in in what's going on in society.

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在财务上最优和心理上最优之间也存在某种差异。

There's also sort of a difference between what's optimal financially and what's optimal psychologically.

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我们以前讨论过这个问题,你曾告诉我你已经还清了房贷。

And we've had this conversation before where you've you've told me you paid off your mortgage.

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是的。

Yep.

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这在财务上几乎没有意义,因为你当时有一笔非常低的抵押贷款。

And that makes no very little financial sense because you you had one of those crazy, like, really low mortgages.

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我们的抵押贷款利率是3.2%,固定三十年,但我们还是还清了,我觉得这确实没错。

Like, our mortgage rate was 3.2% fixed for thirty years, and we paid it off, which I'd I'd say is it's very true.

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这是我们做过的最糟糕的财务决定,但却是最明智的金钱决定。

It's the worst financial decision we've ever made, but it's the best money decision we've ever made.

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这两者的区别在于:从表格上看,这简直糟透了。

And the difference between the two is like, look, on a spreadsheet, it's terrible.

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我算过一笔账,如果当初我把这笔钱拿去投资会怎样?

I've done the math of like, what if I had just invested that money instead?

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如果我们把这笔钱投资了,今天会多出多少钱?

How much would I More money would we have today?

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非常多。

It's a lot.

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这是一大笔钱,但我们在财务生活中所做的任何事情,都不如还清房贷带给我们更多的幸福感。

It's just a lot of money, but nothing that we've ever done in our financial life has I think given us more happiness than paying that off.

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这其中很大一部分可能与我的性格有关。

And a lot of that is unique maybe to my personality.

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这并不是给别人的建议,因为也许你和其他人并没有这样的性格。

This is not advice for other people, because maybe you and other people don't have that personality.

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我是个总是考虑最坏情况的人。

I'm a worst case scenario thinker.

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我的职业也不稳定,而且我是家里唯一的经济支柱。

I also have a career that can be fickle, and so and and I'm the sole breadwinner in our household.

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我妻子在家照顾孩子。

My wife is is is home with our kids.

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因此,综合我的性格、我的职业以及其他因素,这么做完全说得通。

So with all of those, my personality, my career, and whatnot, it made perfect sense.

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当我们完成这件事时,我几乎感动得流泪了,尽管我清楚这在财务上是个愚蠢的决定。

And when we did it, I was nearly in tears with joy when we did it, knowing full well that it was a dumb that it was a dumb financial decision.

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所以,一旦你不再把钱仅仅看作是让表格好看的东西,而是把它当作改善生活的工具,很多事情就会改变。

So I think once you stop viewing money as just trying to make the spreadsheet happy, and you view it as a tool to live a better life, a lot of things change.

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在这种情况下,它成了一种工具,极大地提升了我和我家人生活的质量,即使从财务报表上看,这是我们做过最愚蠢的事。

And in that situation, it was a tool that improved the quality of my life and my family's life, I think dramatically, even if it was the dumbest thing that we've ever done on a spreadsheet.

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很多人这么说时,还是会反驳,说:那你具体解释一下,这哪里理性了。

And a lot of people, say this, they'll still push back and be like, well, walk me through why it was rational.

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我会说,这根本不理性。

I'm like, it's not rational.

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这完全不理性。

It's not rational at all.

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我没法在表格上向你解释清楚。

I I I can't explain to you on a spreadsheet.

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这么做很傻,但它让我非常开心。

It was it was dumb to do, but it made me really happy.

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那这有什么意义吗?

And, like, is there any worth?

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对你来说,这有价值吗?

Is there any value to that, you know, for you?

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它让我感到快乐。

Like, it made me happy.

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我们其实可以就停在这里。

We could just stop right there.

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我不需要再证明什么了。

I don't need to prove it anymore.

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但那不就让它变得理性了吗?

But doesn't that make it rational?

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你玩的是另一种游戏,对吧?

You're playing a different game, right?

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Speaker 1

如果你试图在长期内优化每一分钱,也许这没有意义。

If you're trying to optimize every penny over the long term, maybe that doesn't make sense.

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但如果你追求的是幸福和长寿,那也许就说得通了。

But if you're optimizing for happiness and longevity, maybe it does make sense.

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是的。

Yes.

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所以我认为,金钱的定性因素对人们来说很难理解,尤其是在一个一直被当作分析性领域来教授的领域里。

And so I think the qualitative factors of money are hard for people to wrap their head around, particularly in a field that has been taught as an analytical field.

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如果你获得金融学位,或者考取CFA之类的证书,学到的全是数字。

If you get a degree in finance or get your CFA or whatever it'd be, it's purely numbers.

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这并不完全准确。

That's not totally accurate.

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里面确实有一些,但大多数金融教学都只关注数字。

There's some in there, but vast majority of how they teach finance is just numbers.

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因此,很多人很难理解,为什么你会做一些数字上说不通的事情。

And so it can be hard for a lot of people to wrap their head around why you would do something where the numbers don't make sense.

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钱能为我们带来什么?它能为我们带来什么?

What can money do for us, what can it do for us?

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它向我们传递了什么谎言?

What's the lie it tells us?

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我们以为钱能为我们做到,但实际上做不到的是什么?

What's the thing that we feel like it can do for us that it can't?

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我认为,生活中很多人如果对自己的现状不满意,就会很轻易地认为:如果我有更多的钱,一切都会变好。

Well, I think the lie is that a lot of people in life, if they're unsatisfied with how their life is going, it's a very quick and easy answer to say, If I had more money, things would be better.

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这可能是对的。

And that can be true.

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钱确实能解决很多问题,但我认为,很多人真正想要的——我不是说所有人,我不想一概而论——但我想要的,也是很多人普遍希望拥有的,是自由,是能和我爱的人在一起,比如家人和朋友。

It can solve a lot of your problems, but I think what a lot of people want in life, not everyone, I don't want to completely generalize this, but what I want that I think is is reasonably common for people is I want independence, and I wanna spend time with the people who I love, my family and friends.

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就这么简单。

And that's pretty much it.

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你能用钱实现这些吗?

And can you use money to do that?

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当然。

Of course.

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金钱可以说是独立的氧气,如果你能用金钱来多花时间陪伴朋友和家人。

Money is is kind of the oxygen of independence, and if you can use your money to spend more time with your friends and family.

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昨晚我们俩一起吃了一顿美好的晚餐。

You and I went out to a lovely dinner last night with each other.

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这花了不少钱。

That cost money.

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顺便说声谢谢,你请客了。

Thank you for buying, by the way.

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我们在一起度过了非常愉快的时光。

And we had a great time with each other.

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如果你我和我散步,那就不花钱,但也同样很棒。

Now if you and I went for a walk that would have been free, it would have been great too.

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但用钱来让你想和谁在一起、何时在一起、待多久,都能如愿。

But using money for to spend time with whom you want, when you want, for as long as you want.

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每天早上醒来,都能说今天我想做什么就做什么,哪怕我想做的只是去上班、保持高效,这至关重要。

Waking up every morning and saying, can do whatever I want today, even if what I wanna do is go to work and and be productive, is absolutely critical.

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这和那种条件反射式的想法不同,比如‘如果我有钱了,就能买更多、更好的东西’。

And that is different from the knee jerk of just, oh, if I have more money, can buy more things, nicer things.

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但你内心真正想要的,其实是独立,是和你爱的人共度时光。

But what you actually want in your soul is to like, is you want independence and to spend time with people who you love.

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钱能做到这些,但它的作用并没有人们想象的那么直接。

Money can do those things, but it's not as direct as people think.

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一个例子是:住更大的房子会让你更快乐吗?

One example of this is like, will having a nicer house make you happier?

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也许会,但让你更快乐的原因,是因为它让你更容易邀请朋友来家里做客。

It might, but the reason it's going to make you happier is because it makes it easier to have friends over.

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它让你能更方便地和孩子在宽敞、漂亮的客厅里一起放松。

It makes it more convenient to hang out with your kids in a big, nice, glorious living room.

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所以,并不是房子本身会让你更快乐,而是它能让生活中更重要的事情变得更顺利。

So it's not that the house will make you happier, but the house can make it more conducive to do things in your life.

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这些事情才会让你更快乐。

Those things will make you happier.

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我和我最小的孩子一起读《富爸爸穷爸爸》,我们谈到了房子这个概念,如果我没记错的话,书里说你的房子是一种负债,而不是资产。

I was reading Rich Dad Poor Dad with my youngest, and we come to the concept of a house, and if I get this right, it was sort of your house is a liability and not an asset.

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所以不要把它看作是一种会增值、为你积累财富的金融资产。

So don't think of it as a financial asset that's going to grow and acquire wealth for you.

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而应该把它看作是一种负债,是你想要参与游戏、过上稳定生活以及其他一切时所必需的底线。

Think of it as liability that's just sort of table stakes for playing the game if you want, or living life and having stability and all these other things.

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我觉得这真的很有趣。

I thought it was really interesting.

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当我们讨论它的时候,我就想,这不就是一栋房子吗?

As we talked about it, I was like, it's just the house.

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房子本质上就是一个容器。

What the house is, effectively, it's a container.

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重要的是这个容器里面发生的事情。

What matters is what happens inside that container.

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房子本身,谁在乎呢?

The house in and of itself, who cares?

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是的。

Yeah.

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就在最近,上个月,我和我儿子去了我长大的那个小镇,我顺道去了我童年大部分时间住过的那栋房子。

Just recently, just last month, I traveled with my son to the town that I grew up in, and I stopped by the house that I grew up in for the majority of my childhood.

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我已经二十年没去过了。

I hadn't been there in twenty years.

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我们把车开进了车道。

We pulled in the driveway.

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当然,现在那里住着别人,所以我们只是坐在车里。

Of course, there's people who live there now, so we just sat in the car.

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但我坐在那里整整十分钟,只是回想——一旦驶入车道,那些关于这栋房子里发生的点点滴滴的记忆就开始涌上心头,有好的有坏的,有开心的有悲伤的,童年时的回忆太多了。

But I I sat there for ten minutes just kinda reminiscing about as soon as you pull in the driveway, all these memories start flooding back of the things that happened in that house, good and bad, fun and sad, like like so many memories in there from my childhood.

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当然,你可以在Zillow上查到那栋房子现在的价值。

And of course, you can go on Zillow and see what that house is worth.

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它会给你一个非常具体的数字,告诉你这栋房子的价值。

It'll give you a very specific dollar figure for what the house is worth.

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但这栋房子对我来说、对我父母和兄弟姐妹来说,是无价的。

But what the house is worth to me and my parents and my siblings is is invaluable.

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你无法为这样的回忆标上价格。

You can't put a price tag on those kind of memories.

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我认为这对大多数人来说都是如此。

I think that's common for most people.

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它有实际的财务价值,但也有一种无法用金钱衡量的无形价值。

There's a tangible financial value, and there's this intangible that you can't ever put a price on.

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旅行也是如此。

That's true for vacations.

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生活中很多事物都是这样,都有一个财务价值。

It's true for a lot of things in life, that there's a financial value.

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如果我问你,这栋房子值多少钱?

If I asked you and said, what is this house worth?

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再说一遍,你可以上Zillow查,但这所房子里积累的回忆值多少钱呢?

Again, you could go on Zillow and say, but what are the memories built inside that house worth?

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就像你说的,这种东西是无法用金钱衡量的。

It's like, you can't put a price on that.

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当你实现财务自由后,这是否意味着你在花钱时,已经不再把钱当作关键因素了?

When you've reached financial independence, is that the ultimate when you're spending money, but it's not a matter of the money?

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你不再用具体的美元数额来衡量它。

You're not quantifying it in sort of a dollar figure.

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你用的是感受来衡量它。

You're quantifying it in a feeling.

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或者

Or

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我觉得这很有道理。

I think there's truth to that.

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当你开始把它当作提升幸福感的工具时。

It's when you start using it as a tool to become happier.

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现在让人快乐的东西完全不同了。

Now what's gonna make people happy is very different.

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拥有一个令人惊叹的法拉利收藏可能会让你快乐。

Having an incredible Ferrari collection might make you happy.

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所以,如果说让你快乐的东西不是物质的,你只应该用它们来获得体验,这未免太过极端了。

So if it's not to say that the things will make you happy are not material, that you should just use this for experiences.

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我认为,这种说法走得太远了。

That, think, is a step too far.

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我认为很多人有花费高昂的爱好,这些是物质性的,却真的让他们感到快乐。

I think a lot of people have hobbies that cost a lot of money that are material that really make them happy.

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所以,这很好。

So it's like, great.

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有很多人会说,你知道的,他们会大力提倡节俭,认为你不需要大房子。

There are a lot of people out there who would say, you know, who would really promote frugality and be like, you don't need a big house.

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你不需要一辆好车。

You don't need a nice car.

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大房子和好车确实让一些人非常开心。

Well, big houses and nice cars make some people really happy.

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但对另一些人来说,却并非如此。

Other people, they don't.

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关键在于,你如何把钱当作工具来改善生活,而不是把它当作衡量地位和成功的标尺,用来和别人攀比。

It's whatever you can use money as a tool for to live a better life, versus I think a yardstick of status and success to compare yourself against other people.

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真正危险的是,你只是把钱当作和别人竞争的计分牌。

That's what gets dangerous, is when you're just using it as a scorecard to compete with other people.

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我们该如何察觉自己正陷入地位竞争中,而自己却浑然不觉?

How do we catch ourselves in a status game, where we're playing a status game, but we can't see it because we're in it?

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在经济层面,尤其是在宏观层面上,这是不可避免的。

It's unavoidable at the economy level, especially at the broad macro level.

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从进化角度来看,人们彼此竞争是合情合理的。

It makes sense from an evolutionary perspective that people compete with each other.

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资源是有限的,如果我想获得食物、伴侣,或者任何其他东西,我就必须和你竞争。

There's limited resources, and if I want the food, if I want the mate, whatever it would be, I need to compete with you.

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这一直都是如此。

That's always what it is.

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所以这非常自然。

So it's so natural.

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它永远不会消失。

It's never gonna go away.

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这和以前完全一样。

This is truly same as ever.

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人们总会不停地攀比。

People are always gonna be keeping up with the Joneses.

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你可以想象这样一个世界:我们的孩子和孙子们的生活远比我们好,活得更久,物质条件也远超我们,但他们并不会因此更快乐,因为他们只是在和那些拥有更多的人竞争。

And you can imagine a world in which our kids and our grandkids are living way better lives than you and I are, and living longer, and have better material access you and I do, and they're no happier for it because they're just competing with other people who have even more than that.

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这一直都是这样。

That's always been like that.

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如果一百年前的人们能看到我们今天的生活,他们会对我们拥有的几乎所有东西感到震惊。

If people a hundred years ago could see how you and I are living today, they would be completely dumbfounded with virtually everything we have in our life.

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但我也会打赌,你和我并没有比他们快乐多少。

But I would also wager that you and I are not that much happier than they are.

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生活中有些方面确实更健康了,比如我们不必再担心下周会因流感而死,但人们只是会根据身边的人调整自己的期望。

There'd be some aspects of life where healthier, we don't have to wake up, you know, worry that we're gonna die die from the flu next week kind of but people just adjust their expectations to whoever is around them.

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很多这种倾向就像是一种基因问题。

A lot of this is like a a DNA thing.

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有些人天生更容易想要跟别人攀比,而另一些人则根本不在乎别人怎么看待自己。

Some people are just way more susceptible to wanting to keep up with others, and other people could just care less what other people think about them.

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在我生命中,大概有六个人是我非常渴望获得他们的爱与尊重的。

There's probably six people in my life who I really desperately want their love and respect.

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我的父母、我的妻子、我的孩子、几个朋友,还有其他人。

My parents, my wife, my kids, a handful of friends, and everyone else.

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倒不是我完全不在乎,但在这六个人,或者最多八个人之后,这种在意程度就急剧下降了。

It's not that I could care less, but after those six or maybe eight people, it drops dramatically.

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至于推特上和其他地方的绝大多数人,你们对我所做的决定怎么看,我根本无所谓。

And the vast majority of people on Twitter and whatnot, I could I could care less what you think about the decisions that I'm making.

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所以我认为,如果你能明确一点,这一生中你想要谁的爱与钦佩?

So I think if you define that, who's love and admiration do I want in life?

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弄清楚这些人是谁,以及你需要做什么才能赢得他们的爱与尊重?

Defining who those people are, and what do I have to do to earn their love and respect?

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我妻子、孩子和父母的爱与尊重,这就是我想用金钱去实现的人生目标。

The love and respect of my wife and my kids and my parents, And that's what I wanna use money to do in my life.

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比如花时间陪伴家人,带他们去一些精彩的地方等等。

So like spending time with my family, taking them to cool places, and whatnot.

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这其中确实有财务方面的考量,但一旦你明确了自己在玩的这场个人游戏,许多决定就会变得清晰起来。

There is a financial aspect to this, but once you define that personal game you're playing, a lot of these decisions clear up.

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我认为很多人其实从未思考过自己在玩什么样的游戏。

I think a lot of people don't actually think about what game they're playing.

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他们看着别人,从我的角度看,你应该做些不同的事,但这是因为我们在优化不同的东西。

They look at other people, and from my lens, you should be doing something different, but that really comes because we're optimizing for different things.

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是的。

Yes.

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我打赌,如果你我和坐下来深入比较彼此的生活,我们会有很多截然不同的做法。

I bet if you and I sat down and deeply compared our lives, there would be things that we do very differently.

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你花很多钱在这件事上,而我不。

Spending like you spend a lot of money on this, and I don't.

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我花很多钱在这件事上,而你不。

I spend a lot of money on this, and you don't.

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这并不是分歧。

And it's not a disagreement.

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只是我们是不同的人。

It's just we're different people.

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即使你我和年龄相仿、教育背景相似,可能也有很多地方就是不一样,但我们确实不同。

Even if you and I are about the same age, same education, there's probably a lot that is just like, yeah, but we're we're different.

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所以我认为,大多数财务争论——无论是投资、储蓄还是消费方面的争论——人们其实并没有真正彼此反对。

So I think most financial debates, whether it's like an investing debate or a saving or spending debate, people are not actually disagreeing with each other.

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他们根本不是在争论。

They're not actually debating.

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这是不同性格的人在互相争论。

It's people with different personalities talking over each other.

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一旦你接受了这一点,就没有唯一正确的答案。

And once you come to terms with that, there's not one right answer for any of this.

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然而,我们从父母那里继承了太多关于金钱的无形规则和做法。

There's so many things that we inherit though from our parents, like invisible rules about money or practices around money.

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我记得小时候,父母不得不在修屋顶和修车之间做选择,但他们负担不起两者。

I remember these moments in my childhood where you know, my parents had to decide between fixing the roof and fixing the car, and they couldn't afford to do both.

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我记得他们为军方工作,军方曾给他们派了一名财务顾问。

And I remember they worked for the military, and the military had sent them a financial advisor.

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我记得听着他们和财务顾问的对话,发现他们完全不了解我妈妈拿到的退役金发生了什么变化。

And I remember listening to the conversation they had with the financial advisor and how out of the loop they were with what was happening with the severance pay that my mom was getting and what was happening.

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而且对这些情况一无所知。

Had And no knowledge of it.

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我当时就想,我绝不要陷入这样的境地。

I was like, I never want to be in this position.

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是的

Yeah.

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你从父母那里学到的哪些教训至今仍深深影响着你,塑造了你对金钱的看法?

What are the lessons that you learned from your parents that really stick with you today that sort of defined how you think about money?

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我父母的教育背景中,有两件事特别突出。

The two things that stick out from my parents, my parents' upbringing.

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我爸爸30岁才开始上大学,那时他已经有了三个孩子。

So my dad started undergraduate college when he was 30 and had three kids.

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我是三个孩子中最小的一个。

I'm the youngest of three.

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我出生才一个月左右,他就开始了大学生活,等我上三年级时,他成了医生。

He started his undergrad when I was like a month old, something like that, and he became a doctor when I was in third grade.

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我的童年早期,父母非常非常穷。

My early childhood, my parents were very, very poor.

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他们当时是学生,或许有些学生补助金让我们能买点食物,住在一间小小的公寓里。

They were students, and maybe they had some student grants that allowed us to buy groceries, and live in a tiny little apartment.

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我们非常快乐,拥有一个美好的童年,但那时我们极其贫穷。

We were very happy, had a great childhood, but they were very, very poor.

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然后我爸爸在我三年级时成为医生,我们家的生活状况从极度贫困瞬间跃升至中上阶层,就在我三年级那一年,我的兄弟姐妹那时已经是青少年了。

And then my dad became a doctor when I was in third grade, and had the, so it was immediate shift towards very poor to like upper middle class, literally overnight when I was in third grade, and my sibling, my brother and sister were teenagers at that point.

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所以我亲眼见证了贫富两个极端,我记得1993年是我们家命运彻底改变的一年。

So I got to see very, like, both sides of the spectrum, and I remember the year, 1993, is the year everything changed in our family.

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最让我印象深刻的是,父母在贫穷时养成的节俭习惯,在他们开始赚更多钱后依然保留了下来。

What sticks out from that is that the frugality that was demanded of my parents when they were poor stuck with them after they started making more money.

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所以即使我爸爸成为医生后,我们依然非常节俭。

And so even after my dad became a doctor, we were very frugal.

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我们的生活比贫穷时期好得多,因为我的童年大部分时间都生活在赤贫中,但之后,他们保持着极高的储蓄率。

We lived a much better life than we did when we were poor, because we were living in abject poverty for most of my childhood, but after that, they had a very high savings rate.

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我们不像我爸爸的同事那样花钱,也不像普通人预期的医生那样挥霍。

We were not spending money like my dad's coworkers were, like you would expect a normal doctor to.

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根本完全不是那样。

It was nothing close to that.

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我觉得我当时看不起我的父母。

I think I looked down upon my parents for that.

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我当时想,我们本可以住在更好的房子里。

I was like, we could be living in a nicer house.

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我知道你们赚了多少钱。

I know how much money you make.

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我们本可以住更好的房子、开更好的车,但你们因为太吝啬而不这么做。

We could be living in a better house and driving a better car, but we don't because you're cheapskates.

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在我青少年时期和二十岁出头的时候,我一直这么认为。

That was my view for my teens and early twenties.

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我爸爸是急诊科医生,这是一个压力极大的领域。

My dad was an ER doctor, which is a very stressful field.

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每天都有人死在你怀里,还要值夜班,这工作压力极大。

It's literally people dying in front of you in your arms every day and working night shifts, and it's a very stressful field.

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所以大约二十年后,他实在受不了了。

So after about twenty years or so, he had just had enough.

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而且,在他原本计划退休之前,某天早上他突然醒过来,说:我干够了。

And well before I think he intended to retire, he more or less woke up one day and said, I'm done.

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这比那稍微有计划一点,但差不多就是这么回事。

It was a little more planned than that, but that that was close to it.

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因为他存了很多钱,所以他能做到这一点。

And because he had saved so much, he could do that.

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他拥有足够的自由,可以某天早上醒来,说:我为我所做的一切感到自豪,但现在我要去做别的事情了。

He had the independence to wake up one day and say, I'm proud of what I did, but I'm going to go do something else now.

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他的很多同行都无法做到这一点,因为他们像医生一样花钱。

And a lot of his peers could not do that because they spent like doctors.

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他们住在大房子里,送孩子上私立学校,开豪华汽车。

They lived in big houses and sent their kids to private school and drove fancy cars.

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所以当他们想辞职时,却无法做到。

So when they wanted to quit, they couldn't.

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他们想退休。

They wanted to retire.

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他们很累,也想辞职,但却做不到。

They were they were tired, and they wanted to quit, but they couldn't do it.

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这让我对事情的看法发生了巨大的转变。

And that was such a profound shift in my thinking.

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这并不是很久以前的事,我记得大概是十二年前吧,那时我才明白,原来你存那么多钱是因为这个。

This was not that long ago, I don't know, twelve years ago or so, of when I was like, oh, that's that's why you were saving so much.

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并不是因为你们小气,而是因为你们想获得独立,而现在你们做到了。

It wasn't because you were cheapskates, it's because you were wanting to become independent, and now you are.

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你们想辞职,所以就能辞职。

You wanna quit so you could quit.

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这就是你们存钱的原因。

That's why you are saving.

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对我来说,这是一个巨大的转变:你们存钱不是因为害怕花钱,而是因为你们想要不同的东西——独立。

That was a profound shift for me of like, you're not saving because you're just scared to spend, you're saving because you want something different, which is independence.

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而独立能带给你比大房子多得多的快乐。

And independence is going to give you so much more pleasure than the big house ever would.

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这一直深深印在我心里。

That really stuck with me.

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当你跟他们说‘你们就是小气鬼,别这样,我们买个大点的房子吧’的时候,他们是怎么回应你的?

How did they talk to you when you said, hey, you're just being cheapskates, like, let's do this thing, or let's get this bigger house, or

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如果他们听到我刚才说的话,他们会说:‘是的,现在回头看,这全都是对的,但我们当时并不知道自己是在为独立而储蓄。’

If they heard what I just said, they would say, yes, in hindsight, that's all true, but we didn't know we were saving for independence.

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我的父母也很有意思,他们四十多年来一直坚持在先锋指数基金上进行美元成本平均投资,从未卖出过任何一只基金。

They also my my parents are very interesting that they have dollar cost averaged in the Vanguard index funds for more than forty years and never sold anything ever.

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所以,他们根本没有接受过任何金融教育,也没有什么金融技能,却很可能在这段时期内成为了顶尖的2%投资者。

So they would be, like, literally in the top probably 2% of investors during that period without any financial education, no financial skill, like no nothing like that.

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我认为他们做的很多决定都取得了很好的结果,但这些决定其实并不是有意识做出的。

So I think a lot of the decisions they've made have worked out well, but it hasn't really been conscious.

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所以,当我之前说你们是小气鬼的时候,我敢肯定他们只是耸耸肩,说:‘好吧,这就是我们正在做的事。’

So I think back when I said your cheapskates, I'm sure they just kind of shrugged and, okay, well, is what we're doing.

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但我认为他们其实并没有一个明确的计划。

But I don't think they actually had a plan for what they were doing.

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这仅仅是他们所被迫养成的节俭习惯。

It was just, again, the frugality that was demanded of them.

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我父母在20世纪70年代的一个嬉皮士公社相识,那里可不是培养良好储蓄习惯的地方。

My parents also met on a hippie commune in the 1970s, not exactly the breeding ground for good saving skills.

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因此,在他们整个成年生活中,长达数十年的时间里,他们身无分文。

And so for their entire adult lives, for literally decades, they zero money.

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他们一无所有。

They had absolutely nothing.

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所以他们学会了如何贫穷,但同时也非常快乐,婚姻也很美满。

So they learned how to be poor, and they're also very happy and have a great marriage.

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如果你能带着尊严学会如何贫穷,这种能力会永远伴随你。

If you can learn how to be poor with dignity, that skill will just like stick with you forever.

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所以当他们开始赚钱时,我认为他们可能真的不知道该如何处理这些钱,因为他们太习惯贫穷了,但无论是否自觉,这种经历最终造就了给予他们巨大幸福与满足的独立生活。

So when they started making money, I think it's probably true that they didn't exactly know what to do with it because they were so used to being poor, but whether it was conscious or not, it created this thing that has given them so much happiness and pleasure, which is independence.

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富有和富裕之间有什么区别?

What's the difference between being rich and being wealthy?

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这些定义都是我自己的,我只是在凭空创造,但我觉得‘富有’是指你有足够的钱支付房贷、车贷,每个月都能还清信用卡账单,从技术上讲,你能负担得起你买的东西。

The definitions are my own, so I'm just making this up, but I think rich is when you have enough money to make your mortgage payment, make your car payment, you can pay off your credit card bill every month, like you can afford the things that you're buying technically.

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‘富裕’则意味着你拥有一定程度的独立性和自主权。

Wealthy, think, is when you have a degree of independence and autonomy.

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这里奇怪的地方在于,财富是你没有花掉的钱。

The weird thing here is that wealth is the money that you don't spend.

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财富就是那些你没买的房子、没买的车。

That's what wealth is, like the homes you didn't buy, and the car you didn't buy.

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是你存下来并投资的钱,它会给你带来独立,我认为这一点很难让人理解——财富是你看不见的东西,因为你能看到我的房子、我的车、我的衣服,但你根本不知道我的净资产是多少。

It's money that you saved and invested that is gonna give you independence, and that's a hard thing for people, I think, to wrap their head around that wealth is what you don't see, because I can see your house, I can see your car, I can see your clothes, but I have no idea what your net worth is.

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你看不到我的证券账户,也看不到我的银行账户。

I can't see your brokerage account, I can't see your bank account.

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所以财富总是隐藏的,这会让很多人感到困惑,因为如果我想找一个身体健康方面的榜样,我至少能看到你的体态。

So wealth is always hidden, and it throws a lot of people for a loop, because if I was looking for a role model of physical fitness, well, I I can see your fitness.

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我能看见你的体重、你的肌肉线条等等。

I can see your weight and your muscle tone whatnot.

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这些都是可见的。

It's it's all visible.

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但当你寻找一个财务榜样时,你会仰望谁呢?

But when you're looking for a financial role model, who do you look up to?

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很多人,尤其是年轻人,会仰望那个住在豪宅里开法拉利的人。

And a lot of people, particularly young people, will look up to the guy in the mansion with the Ferrari.

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但那个家伙,据你所知,可能也是月光族。

But that guy, for all you know, is living paycheck to paycheck.

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很多这样的人都是如此。

A lot of a lot of those people are.

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而真正富有且独立的人,可能就是那个住在普通房子、开着普通汽车的人,而你其实更想成为这样的人。

And the person who is actually wealthy and independent might be the person in the modest house driving the modest car that you would actually wanna be.

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如果你想变得富有而不是仅仅富裕,想获得独立而不是仅仅按时支付月供,那么你真正应该仰望的人,往往是社会中最难识别的一群人。

If you wanna be wealthy instead of just rich, you want to be independent instead of just making your monthly payments, the people that you actually want to look up to are some of the hardest people to identify in society.

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你仰望谁?

Who do you look up to?

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总的来说,我敬佩的是那些随心所欲、拥有独立性的人。

In general, who I look up to are people who do whatever they want, people with independence.

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而这其中有着巨大的差异范围。

And there's a huge range of that.

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我认为有些人的净资产,你知道,只有六位数出头,但他们也是独立的。

I think there are people whose net worth is, you know, in the low 6 figures who are independent.

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嗯哼。

Mhmm.

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有一位名叫Mustache先生的人

There's a guy named Mr.

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他在大约十到十五年前开创了FIRE运动,他的故事是当他净资产达到60万美元时——这笔钱并不多——他就退休了,并以此过上了很好的生活。

Money Mustache who kind of started the FIRE movement, I don't know, ten or fifteen years ago, and his story was when his net worth was $600,000, not that much money, he retired and lived a great life on it.

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还有其他人,你知道,显然杰夫·贝索斯和埃隆·马斯克是独立的,但我敢说埃隆·马斯克一天中超过一半的时间都在做他不想做的事情。

And there's other people, you know, obviously, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk are independent, but I would I would venture that more than half of Elon Musk's day is is doing things that he doesn't wanna do.

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就像是,你知道,堆积了所有这些事,他仍然被驱使着去做并完成它们,当然他明天就可以辞职,但还是在做那些他不一定想做的事。

It's like there's it's, you know, piling on all these things that, you know, he's he's still driven to do them and get them done, and of course he of course he could quit tomorrow, but doing things that he doesn't necessarily wanna do.

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所以,任何每天醒来都能说‘今天我想做什么就做什么’的人。

So anyone who can wake up every day and say, like, I can do whatever I want today.

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如果你拥有独立性,那就是我的个人目标。

If you have independence, that that's my personal goal.

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因此,无论收入水平如何,那些拥有这种自由的人,正是我敬仰的对象。

So the people who have that at any income level are are the ones I look up to.

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为什么有那么多有钱人?

Why are so many people who have money?

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我觉得答案可能就藏在上一个问题里,但为什么有那么多实际上拥有大量财富或金钱的人却不快乐?

I think the answer is sort of maybe embedded in the last one, but why are so many people who actually have a lot of objective wealth or money, if you will, unhappy?

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我们的朋友安德鲁·威尔金森说过一句话,我转述一下:很多非常成功的人,其实就是被用来提高效率的行走焦虑症患者。

Andrew Wilkinson, our friend, had a saying where he says, a lot of people, I'm paraphrasing him, but a lot of people who are very successful are just walking anxiety disorders harnessed for productivity.

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我认为,帕特里克·奥肖内西曾说过,用来形容许多非常成功人士的唯一一个词,不是‘有动力’,也不是‘充满热情’,而是‘受折磨’。

And I think it was Patrick O'Shaughnessy who said the single word that he would use to describe a lot of very successful people is not driven, it's not passionate, it's tortured.

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他们每天早上醒来都因‘我得解决这个问题’而备受煎熬。

They wake up every morning tortured about like, I'm trying to solve this problem.

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我必须赶上去。

I have to get ahead.

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我必须达成这个目标,他们真的每天醒来都充满焦虑和抑郁,为实现自己的目标而备受煎熬。

I have to hit this goal, and they are literally it's they wake up very anxious and depressed and, like, you know, just tortured about about achieving their things.

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埃隆·马斯克几个月前接受了一次采访,他说,你可能以为你想成为我。

Elon Musk, couple months ago, gave an interview where he said, you might think you wanna be me.

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是的。

Yeah.

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意思是,作为世界上最富有的人、历史上最富有的人,但你并不想。

As in like the richest person in the world, richest person in history, but you don't.

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他说过类似的话,比如,这里像龙卷风一样混乱。

And he was like, and I think he said something like, it's tornado up here.

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我脑子里一团乱麻。

It's a mess inside of this head.

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你绝对不想身处这样的头脑之中。

You do not wanna be inside of this head.

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我觉得这真的很有道理。

I think that's really true.

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我认为这是一个深刻的真相:你可能以为自己想要那样的生活,但那种生活是有代价的。

I think that's a profound truth that you might think you want that kind of life, but there is a cost to that life.

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他之所以成功,是因为他整个成年生涯可能都带着痛苦醒来,努力解决这些问题。

And the reason he's successful is because he's probably woken up tortured for his entire adult life trying to solve these problems.

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我很高兴并感激像他这样的人存在,因为他们让世界变得更好,创造了我们所有人都能受益的新技术。

I am so glad and grateful that people like himself exist, because they they made the world a better place, new technologies that we can all benefit from.

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但说‘我很高兴你存在’和‘我想过你的生活’是两件截然不同的事。

But there's a big difference between saying, I'm glad you exist, and I would want your life.

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这两者非常不同。

Those are two very different things.

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这几乎像是我们只看到了结果。

It's almost like we're looking at the outcome.

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我们想的是:我想要这个结果。

We're like, I want the outcome.

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我不想要这些东西。

I don't want all this stuff.

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我们对运动员也是这样看待的。

We do this with athletes too.

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对吧?

Right?

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我想要金牌。

I want the gold medal.

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我不想要每天早上5点就开始训练,一周七天,我不想要那种生活。

I don't want the 5AM practices I seven days a don't want the

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我想是纳瓦尔说过,你不能只挑别人生活中的某些部分,说我想拥有他的身材、她的净资产,还有他的房子。

I think it was Naval who said, you can't just pick and choose bits of someone's life and say, I want his physique and her net worth, and I want his house.

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你必须接受全部的代价。

You have to take the whole package.

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任何人生活中那些伟大的成就,背后都伴随着代价,无论是他们为事业成功所付出的努力。

And a lot of the great things in anyone's life, there's a cost that came with that, whether it's their career success that they had to put into it.

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据说比尔·盖茨曾连续二十五年从未休过一天假。

There's stories that Bill Gates worked, I think it was twenty five years without ever taking a single day off.

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在大多数日子里,他都是半夜才回家,倒在沙发上睡四个小时,然后又回去工作。

And most of the days he's working, it would be like he came home at midnight and crashed on the couch for four hours and then went back to work.

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我非常感激他的存在,但我自己并不想要这样的生活。

I'm so grateful that he exists, but I would not want that for myself.

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这并不是我心目中想要的生活定义。

That's not my definition of the life that I would want.

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我们的朋友大卫·塞纳,他运营着播客《创始人》,已经采访了大约350位创始人。

Our friend David Senra, who runs the podcast Founders, has profiled, I think now, probably 350 founders over time.

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他说,我不愿替他说话,但我很确定他说过,他读过的所有创始人传记中,唯一让他觉得‘我想过那样的生活’的,只有埃德·索普。

And he says, I don't wanna put words in his mouth, but I'm pretty sure he said, the only founder that he has ever read their biography and thought, I want his life, is Ed Thorpe.

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而对他读过的其他所有人,我认为他得出了和我相同的结论。

And and everybody else that he reads it, I think he comes to the same conclusion that I do.

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我很高兴他们存在。

I'm glad they exist.

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我绝不想过他们的生活。

I would never wanna live their life.

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因为总有一个隐藏的代价,当你深入了解时,你会意识到:是的,他之所以非常成功,是因为他牺牲了无数对你我而言至关重要的东西。

Because there's always a hidden cost that when you dig into it, you're like, yes, he was very successful because he sacrificed a million things that are very important to you and I.

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我们来聊聊这一点。

Let's talk about that a little bit.

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你非常成功。

You're incredibly successful.

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你的书现在已经售出了超过五百多万册。

Your books have sold well over 5,000,000 copies now.

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来找你的人,无论是请求你的时间、演讲,还是只想和你通十五分钟电话,数量肯定多得离谱。

The inbound to you for requests of your time, your speaking, your presence, hop on the phone for fifteen minutes, must be off the charts.

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你是如何保持自己的事务范围很小,或者坚持做自己想做的事情的?

How do you keep your surface area small or keep doing the things that you wanna do?

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要管理好这一切,唯一的办法就是几乎对所有人都说不,这让我感到很痛苦,原因有两个。

Well, the only way to manage that is to say no to virtually everyone, and that sucks for me for two reasons.

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首先,我没有助理。

A, I don't have any assistant.

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我亲自拒绝他们。

I'm personally saying no to them.

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我不会把这件事推给别人,也不喜欢让人难过。

I don't pawn it off to anyone else, and I don't like making people sad.

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当你拒绝某人,甚至礼貌地拒绝时,他们都会感到些许受伤。

When you blow someone off or even respectfully say no, they're going to be hurt a little bit.

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我清楚地记得,我不会说出名字,但那些你和别人都认识的人,早年我曾主动联系他们,说:‘能不能花十五分钟向您请教一下?’

I vividly remember, I'm not going to say who, but names that you and people would know, that I reached out to early in my career and said, hey, can I please pick your brain for fifteen minutes?

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他们拒绝了我,我当时很受伤。

And they said no, and I was hurt.

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我至今仍记得那种感觉。

I still remember it.

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我依然记得那些邮件。

I still remember the emails.

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我记得大约十五年前曾联系过几位作家,我说:‘我叫摩根。’

I I remember reaching out to a couple of authors probably fifteen years ago and saying, my name is Morgan.

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我是个有志于写作的人。

I'm an aspiring author.

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我正努力尝试,我非常钦佩你们。

I'm trying to I'm trying to do I so admire you.

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我能请你抽出十分钟打个电话吗?

Can I please ask you, you know, just ten minutes on the phone?

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其中一些人没有回复,我至今仍记得这件事。

And some of them didn't respond, and I still remember that.

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所以,如果任何还记得这件事的人,自己也到了不得不拒绝很多人的时候,那真的很糟糕。

So if anyone who remembers that gets in that same position themselves where they have to say no to a lot of people, it sucks.

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但除此之外,别无他法。

But there's no other way to to handle it.

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没有别的办法可以处理这件事。

There's no other way to manage it.

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成功似乎就像我们之前讨论过的那样,它自己埋下了毁灭的种子。

It seems like success, and we've talked about this before, but success sows the seeds of its own destruction.

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你怎么看待这一点?

How do you think about that?

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它在哪些方面造成了这种结果?

In what ways does it do it?

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最大的问题是,成功会让你变得懒惰,并且会削弱让你变得卓越的那些特质。

The the biggest is just that it allows you to become lazy, and it's going to degrade the thing that made you great.

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让你真正取得成功的原因,很可能是你每天醒来时都感到自己不够好。

What made you, literally you, successful is probably some degree of waking up and feeling inadequate.

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每天醒来都想着:我知道自己能做得比现在更好,我必须去实现它。

Just waking up and being like, I know I'm capable of doing more than I've achieved already, and I gotta go do it.

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这种情况非常普遍。

And it's pretty common.

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无论是源于自卑还是其他原因,你每天醒来都会觉得:我今天必须取得比现在更多的成就。

Whether that was driven by a lack of self esteem, whatever it was, you're waking up, and you're like, I need to achieve more than I have today.

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一旦你达到某个层次,就很容易觉得:我已经做到了,于是让你成功那种动力就会减弱。

And once you achieve some level, it's easy to be like, well, I've already done that, and then the thing that made you successful, that drive you had is diminished.

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你在公司和人身上都能看到这一点。另一个非常关键的是,当你地位较低时,周围的人更容易指出你的错误;而当你爬得越高,尤其是达到顶尖水平时,就没人愿意告诉你做错了什么,因为你很可能在付钱让那些围绕你的人提供意见,而他们不敢告诉你皇帝没穿衣服。

You see this in companies and in people, and the other thing that's really powerful is when you are lower on the totem pole, it's easier for everyone around you to tell you what you're doing wrong, and the higher you gain, particularly when you get up to the very high levels, no one wants to tell you you're doing wrong because you're probably paying those people to be surrounded, to surround you with advice, and they don't want to tell the emperor he has no clothes.

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这种情况在很多人和很多公司身上都会发生。

That happens to a lot, lots of people, lots of companies and whatnot.

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让你变得卓越的东西,随着你越成功反而越被削弱,有些人能很好地对抗这种趋势,但很多人做不到。

The thing that made you great is degraded the more successful that you become, and some people fight this very well, but a lot of people don't.

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这是一件很难的事。

It's a tough thing.

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我认为,一旦你经济上更独立,懒惰就会成为问题,你不再有动力了。

I think the laziness aspect of it, of once you become more financially independent, you're not driven.

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在我的大部分职业生涯中,我写作是因为那是我养活孩子的手段。

For most of my career, I was writing because that was how I fed my children.

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我必须做这件事。

I have to do this.

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是的,我非常喜欢。

Yes, I love it.

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是的,我喜欢,但我必须做这件事。

Yes, I enjoy it, but I absolutely have to do this.

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一旦你达到某个阶段,会觉得:看,我仍然喜欢做这件事,但我不再非做不可了。

Once you get to a point where it's like, look, I still love to do this, but I don't have to do it anymore.

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我的动力是不是比以前低了?

Is my motivation lower than it used to?

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我认为答案是肯定的。

I think the answer is yes.

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我不太愿意承认这一点,但我认为答案是肯定的。

Like I don't like to admit that, but I think the answer is yes.

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现在我依然很有动力,依然非常有动力继续写作,因为我热爱这件事。

Now I'm still as motivated, I'm still very motivated to keep writing, because I love doing it.

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而且我觉得,现在我不再为了养活孩子而写作,其中有一部分我反而更享受了。

And I think there's a part of it that I enjoy more now that I'm not doing it to feed my children.

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我做这件事是因为我单纯热爱写作这门艺术,而不是写作的商业层面,但人们的动机随着时间会改变。

I'm doing it because I just love because I love the the the art of writing rather than just the business of writing, but people's motivations change over time.

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现在这部分非常好。

Now part of that is is great.

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我不希望到60岁还得为了养活自己而工作,但你不该假装这不会影响让你变得优秀的东西。

I don't wanna be 60 years old and having to work to to feed myself this week, but you shouldn't pretend that it's gonna not impact the thing that made you great.

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我想稍后再谈写作。

I wanna come to writing later on.

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我对你在这方面的方法有很多问题。

I got a lot of questions about your process around that.

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但在那之前,什么是风险?

But before we get there, what is risk?

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你可以有一百万种不同的风险定义。

You can have a million different definitions of risk.

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我认为广义上,风险就是任何会阻碍你实现目标的东西。

I think broadly, it's anything that's gonna prevent you from achieving the goals that you want.

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这是一个非常基础的回答,但我觉得这就是风险的本质。

That's a a very basic answer, but I think that's what it is.

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这一点之所以重要,是因为以股市的波动为例。

And the reason that's important is because take volatility in the stock market.

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这是风险吗?

Is that risk?

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嗯,有可能是。

Well, it could be.

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如果你是个日内交易者,那确实是。

If you're a day trader, then yes.

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如果明天市场下跌,对你来说就是风险。

The market goes down tomorrow, that's a risk for you.

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如果你还有五十年才退休,那就完全不是风险。

If you're in if you're gonna retire in fifty years, it's not whatsoever.

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所以,从个人角度来定义风险才是最重要的,但很多金融领域却不是这样做的。

So just defining it in personal terms is I think the most important, but a lot of finance is not that.

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他们把风险定义为波动性,不管是什么——衰退、各种其他因素,但这是一个非常个人化的问题。

They define risk as volatility, whatever it might be, recessions, all these different things, but it's a very personal answer.

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对我来说是风险的事,对你可能不是,反之亦然。

What is risky for me might not be for you and vice versa.

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这正是大多数金融争论的根源,或者说是不同时间跨度的人们在互相误解。

And this is what gets back to most financial debates or people with different time horizons talking over each other.

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我非常喜欢一句话:个人理财,个人的部分比理财的部分更重要。

There's a quote I love that is personal finance is more personal than it is finance.

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这对每个人来说都非常重要。

That is really important for everyone.

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你和我不应该假装,文艺复兴科技公司的风险会和你我家庭的个人风险一样。

You and I should not pretend that risk for Renaissance Technologies is gonna be the same for you and I within our personal households.

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完全是、彻底地不同。

Like, complete completely and utterly different.

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任何偏离你个人目标的事情,我都将其定义为风险。

Anything that pulls you away from whatever goals you personally have is what I would define as risk.

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如果你必须

If you had to

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分析一下积累财富、守住财富和花费财富之间的技能差异,你会怎么做?

break down the skill differences between accumulating money, keeping money, and spending money, how would you do that?

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我经常将其定义为致富和守富是完全不同的技能。

I've often defined it as getting rich and staying rich are completely different skills.

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很少有人在致富和守富方面同样擅长。

And there's not that many people who are equally skilled in getting rich versus staying rich.

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社会上有一小部分人非常擅长致富,却完全没有守住财富的能力。

There's a sliver of society that's very good at getting rich, that has no ability to stay rich.

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也有些人非常擅长守住财富,但在创造和长期增长财富方面却不太有天赋。

And there's some people who are very good at holding onto money, but much less talented at building it and growing it over time.

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当你同时具备这两种技能时,就非常难得了。

When you have both skills combined, it's a very special thing.

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巴菲特显然是这样的人,比尔·盖茨也是。

Buffett is obviously that, Bill Gates is that.

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有一小部分人非常擅长致富,并且很好地保持了财富。

There's a handful of people who are extremely good at getting rich and have stayed rich very well.

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我常举的例子是比尔·盖茨创办微软时,做出了可能是历史上最大胆的创业冒险——他声称世界上每张办公桌上都需要一台电脑。

The example that I always use is Bill Gates when he started Microsoft, took the most audacious entrepreneurial swing that maybe anyone's ever taken of saying every desk in the world needs a computer on this.

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而他说这话是在1974年,或者类似的时间。

And he's saying this in 1974, whatever it was.

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巨大的风险。

Crazy amount of risk.

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极其大胆的远见。

Crazy bold vision.

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与此同时,他表示他始终希望微软的银行账户里有足够的现金,即使完全没有收入,也能支付一年的工资,这是最保守、最悲观的经营方式。

At the same time, he said that he always wanted Microsoft to have enough cash in the bank to make payroll for one year with no revenue, which is the most conservative, pessimistic way to run a business.

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所以他既非常敢于冒险,又极其保守、多疑。

So he's like very risk taking and very conservative paranoid at the same time.

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既非常擅长致富,又非常擅长守富。

Very good at getting rich, very good at staying rich at the same time.

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同时具备这两种特质非常独特。

It's very unique to have both of those acting at the same time.

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我认为在个人层面上,也可以做到。

And I think at at the individual level, can have it too.

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我的净资产,你会说,是非常两极分化的。

My my net worth, you'd say, is, like, is very barbelled.

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有大量的现金,这是谨慎保守的一面,还有我希望持有五十年的股票。

Like, a lot of cash, that's the paranoid conservative side, and stocks that I hope to own hold for fifty years.

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这简直大胆至极,认为未来五十年真的会成功。

That's, like, incredibly audacious that that this is actually gonna work out over the next half century.

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我认为这并不矛盾。

And I I don't think that's that's any contradiction.

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这只是试图同时掌握致富和守富的两种能力。

It's just trying to get both of the skills of getting rich and staying rich work at the same time.

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说到守富,我们昨晚谈到的一个故事是范德比尔特家族,他们几乎挥霍掉了四千亿美元的财富。

Speaking of staying rich, one of the stories we talked about last night was the Vanderbilts and how they basically blew a $400,000,000,000 fortune.

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发生了什么?

What happened?

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如果你看看所有那些强盗大亨、非常富有的家族——卡内基、JP·摩根、福特、洛克菲勒、范德比尔特,我认为几乎所有的家族都成功地管理了他们的家族财富,只有范德比尔特家族例外。

If you look at all of the robber baron, very wealthy families, the Carnegies, the JP Morgans, the Fords, the Rockefellers, the Vanderbilts, I think virtually all of them did well or did a decent job at managing that dynastic money except the Vanderbilts.

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范德比尔特家族彻底搞砸了。

The Vanderbilts completely and utterly botched it.

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数据显示,你知道,当科尼利厄斯·范德比尔特去世时,他的净资产经过通货膨胀调整后(因为他死于19世纪),相当于4000亿美元。

The stat is, you know, when Cornelius Vanderbilt died, his net worth adjusted for inflation, because he died in the eighteen hundreds, was the equivalent of $400,000,000,000.

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但在三代人之后,什么都没剩下,这真是令人难以置信。

And in three generations, there was nothing left, which is an astounding thing to think about.

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在这期间,有三代人只是以你能想象到的最愚蠢的方式挥霍财富。

And in between there sat three generations who just blew money in the dumbest ways you can imagine.

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你之所以说这很愚蠢,是因为我认为他们中没有一个人真正快乐。

And the reason you could say it was dumb is because I don't think any of them were happy.

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如果你深入研究这三代人的传记,你会发现他们几乎都过得很悲惨。

I think they were pretty much all miserable, if you dig into the biographies of these three generations.

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其他许多罗伯特·巴伦家族都会教导他们的孩子或继承人经营企业,或成为优秀的慈善家,无论是什么,而范德比尔特家族却实际上告诉他们的继承人:你们在这个世界上唯一的任务就是花比任何人都多的钱。

A lot of the other Robert Barron families taught their children, taught their heirs to run the business, or to become good philanthropists, whatever it was, the Vanderbilts effectively told their heirs, your job, your sole purpose on this planet is to spend more money than anyone else.

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于是他们真的这么做了。

And so they did it.

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他们建造了巨大的豪宅,大到连他们自己都不愿意住,因为实在太庞大了。

They built the biggest houses that were so big they didn't even want to live in them because they were too big.

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他们举办极其奢华的派对,这些派对反而成了他们自己的负担。

They threw parties that were so extravagant, they were just burdens on themselves.

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他们唯一的财务标准就是:你能比其他社交名媛花更多的钱吗?而他们都为此感到痛苦。

Their sole financial metric is can you spend more money than the other socialite, And they were all miserable for it.

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现在很多人知道的故事是,第一个没有继承到任何财富的范德比尔特继承人,当家族财产全部耗尽时,就是CNN的安德森·库珀。

And the the the story that a lot of people know now is that the first Vanderbilt heir to not get any money, when all the money was exhausted, the first heir where there's nothing left was Anderson Cooper of CNN.

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他的母亲名叫格洛丽亚·范德比尔特。

His mother was a woman named Gloria Vanderbilt.

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她拿到了家族最后的一笔信托基金。

She she got the kind of the the last trust fund in the family.

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库珀不仅是过去一百八十年来最成功的范德比尔特继承人,很可能也是最幸福的。

And Cooper is not only the most successful Vanderbilt heir in, like, a hundred and eighty years, he's probably the happiest.

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他曾经谈到过,你所继承的财富,可能会成为你抱负的负担,成为你建立自我身份的阻碍。

And he's talked about this, that money that you are given, that you inherit, can be a burden to your ambition, a burden to your identity of building a name for yourself.

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他是第一个从‘我必须延续范德比尔特家族社会名流身份’这一负担中解脱出来的范德比尔特一代人。

And he was kind of the first Vanderbilt era who was relieved of the burden of having to carry on this thing of like, I'm a socialite.

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我是范德比尔特。

I'm a Vanderbilt.

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他只是觉得,我必须自己打造属于我的名字和事业。

And he's just like, I gotta go build my own name and my own career.

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我确信,因为他的母亲是格洛丽亚·范德比尔特,一些大门为他敞开,而这些门对其他人来说是关闭的,但他在过去一百五十年里,第一次必须完全靠自己打拼。

And I'm sure because his mother was Gloria Vanderbilt, were doors open to him that would not be open to anyone else, but he pretty much had to build it for himself for the first time in a hundred and fifty years.

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你认为财富应该能在父母和子女之间传承吗?

Do you believe that money should be able to pass between parents and kids?

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嗯,能传承,当然可以。

Well, able, sure.

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这是你的决定,但显然也有不利之处。

It's your decision, but there are obviously downsides.

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我确信,希望在很长一段时间内,我会留给孩子们一些钱,但不会很多。

And I'm sure, I hope it's a long time for now, that I'll leave my kids some money, not a lot.

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我喜欢巴菲特的一句话:留给孩子们足够的钱,让他们能做任何事,但不要多到让他们无所事事。

I love the Buffett quote where he says, leave your kids enough money so that they can do anything, but not so much money that they can do nothing.

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我认为这非常重要。

And that I think is really important.

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我想用我存下的钱,给孩子们最好的机会,去建立他们想要的生活,而不是多到迫使他们过上我希望他们过的生活。

I wanna use whatever money I've saved to give my kids the best opportunity of building the life that they want, but not so much money that they are forced to live the life that I want for them.

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我见过一些非常富有的家庭,财富变成了一种人格负担——因为继承了这么多钱,我的职责就只是当一个继承者,继承祖父、父母的遗产,而不是去发现真正的自己。

I've met some families who very wealthy, and wealth becomes like a personality burden of because I inherited this much money, my job is to just be an heir of my grandfather, an heir of my parents, rather than finding out who I am and discovering who I am for myself.

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在极高财富阶层确实如此,但你不想让你传给孩子的财富,成为让他们陷入不愿过的生活的负担。

That's true at the very high levels, but you don't want the wealth that you pass your kids to burden them into a lifestyle that they don't want for themselves.

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你只想说:这里有足够的钱,让你拥有选择的主动权和工具,去发现你想成为谁,过你想过的生活,但又不至于多到迫使你走向你并不想走的方向。

You just want to be like, here's enough money so that you can have the leverage and the tools to find out who you want to be, and live the life that you want, but not so much that it's going to burden you into forcing you into a direction that you don't want to be.

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这简直就像表面积呈几何级数增长:你拥有的房子越多,就需要越多的员工。

It's almost like there's geometric progression of surface area here where the more houses you acquire, the more staff you need.

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需要的员工越多,管理者也就越多。

The more staff you need, the more managers you have.

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我跟萨姆·泽尔聊过,我们本来打算录一档播客,但因为不幸去世,这件事最终没成。

More managers I was talking to Sam Zell, we were supposed to record a podcast, it never happened because he unfortunately passed away.

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但当我跟他聊天时,他只想要两套房子。

But when I was talking to him, just wanted two houses.

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他并不想要十套房子。

He didn't want 10 houses.

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他也不想要这么多东西。

He didn't want all of these things.

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他说,我可以直接租出去。

He's like, I can just rent them.

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我不想应付这些麻烦。

I don't want the hassle.

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我不想要随之而来的负担。

I don't want the burden that comes with that.

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你觉得我们是否忽略了这一点?

Do you think that we lose sight of that?

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然后财富自然会有一种熵增趋势。

And then there's sort of like a natural entropy to wealth.

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对吧?

Right?

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它开始扩张,是的。

Like it starts to expand Yeah.

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而你要付出大量努力才能让它保持小规模。

And you actually have to apply a lot of energy to keep it small.

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是的。

Yeah.

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显然,钱越多,并不意味着你会更不快乐。

It's obviously not the case that the more money you have, the less happy you're gonna be.

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这显然是错误的。

That's obviously wrong.

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但我认为,如果你有更多的钱,你的生活可能会变得更复杂,而复杂性往往会带来很多不快乐。

But I think if you have more money, you can have a more complicated life, and complication can lead to a lot of unhappiness.

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这确实是真的。

That's definitely true.

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我认为这主要适用于中等财富水平的人。

And I think this is mostly true for people who are like middle wealth.

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如果你是顶级富豪,你可以把所有决定都外包出去。

If you're like extreme upper wealth, you can just hire out every decision.

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别人可以替你处理这些事。

People can take care of it for you.

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是那些有足够的钱买第二套房子,却必须自己打理的人。

It's people who have enough money to buy a second home, but they have to manage it themselves.

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这才是生活中真正变得极其复杂的时候。

That's when things get, like, really complicated in your life.

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很多年前,我曾为一群NBA新秀进行过一次咨询会谈。

Many years ago, I did this consulting session with a group of NBA rookies.

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他们中有些人只有19、20岁,却已经赚到了数百万美元。

Were they were some of them were 19, 20 years old, and they're now making millions.

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他们中的许多人从小在城市贫民区长大,生活极其贫困。

And a lot of them grew up in, like, inner city poverty.

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他们小时候非常非常穷,到了青少年时期,却签下了数百万美元的合同。

They grew up very, very poor, and when they are teenagers, they sign contracts for millions of dollars.

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这对他们来说是一种巨大的转变。

It's, such a stark movement for them.

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这次谈话的目的是讨论金钱问题,以防止运动员普遍陷入破产的悲剧。

And the purpose of this conversation was to talk about money to try to prevent the very well known path of athletes going bankrupt.

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有相当大比例的这些人,在30岁之前就破产了。

A very significant percentage of these people who make millions of dollars are bankrupt by the time they're 30.

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那么,我们该如何避免这种情况呢?

So like, how do we prevent that?

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其中一位运动员,我想他当时19岁,说了一番话,我觉得非常深刻而睿智。

And one of these athletes, who was, I think he was 19, said something that I thought was so profound and wise.

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他说,当你在城市贫民区长大,却在年轻时赚到数百万美元,这钱并不只是你的钱。

He said, when you grow up in inner city poverty, and then you make millions of dollars when you're still young, that's not just your money.

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是的。

Mhmm.

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这是妈妈的钱。

That is mom's money.

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这是哥哥的钱。

That is brother's money.

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这是表亲的钱。

That is cousin's money.

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这是邻居的钱。

That is neighbor's money.

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你不能只是对家里的所有人说:祝你们好运。

You can't just tell everyone back at home, good luck to y'all.

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我赚到了我的钱。

I got my money.

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我要去住大豪宅了。

I'm gonna go live in the mansion.

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你却还停留在这个层次,你不能这么做。

You stay in this level of you can't do that.

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他说,那么多运动员破产的原因,并不是因为他们给自己买了豪宅。

And he said the reason so many athletes go bankrupt is not because they bought themselves a mansion.

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而是因为他们给第五代堂表亲买了房子,他们感到巨大的压力,不得不这么做,这种金钱背后带来了沉重的社会负担。

It's because they bought their fifth cousin a house, and they felt so much pressure to do it that they had this, like, social burden that came with the money.

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我认为,在很多不同的层面上,这虽然是一个极端的例子,但在很多方面,金钱确实伴随着一种社会债务。

And I think at many different levels, that's an extreme example, but at a lot of levels, there is social debt that comes with money.

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所以,无论你在哪个财富层级,比如你的净资产增加了一美元,随之而来的可能就是几美分的社会债务——你会被激励,或被推着去提升生活方式,或以某种方式照顾他人,这些事或许很好,但也可能成为负担,成为伴随金钱而来的债务。

So if you at every level of net worth, like if your net worth grows by $1, with that comes a couple pennies maybe of, like, social debt where you are, like, incentivized or, like, push towards to increase your lifestyle or to take care of other people in ways that might be great, but might be a burden, might be a debt that comes with it.

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在某个时刻,我认为这种社会债务会彻底爆发。

And at some point, I think that social debt explodes.

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我的意思是,那些身家高达五亿或一千亿美元的人,当然数量不多,但他们肩负着明智使用和捐赠这笔财富的社会责任,这种责任大得惊人。

I mean, people who are worth, you know, 50 or $100,000,000,000, obviously, there's not that many of them, but their social debt to use that money wisely and to donate that money money wisely is off the charts.

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这压力巨大。

It's enormous.

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他们承受着巨大压力,必须善用这笔钱,不要落得像范德比尔特家族那样的下场。

The pressure that they have to use that money well, to not end up like the Vanderbilts.

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你知道,杰夫·贝佐斯和比尔·盖茨在有效捐赠财富方面承受着多大的压力吗?

You know, how much pressure does Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have to donate their money effectively?

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无论他们做什么,无论捐给哪个事业,人们总会说:‘那个事业不够值得。’

And no matter what they do, no matter what causes they give to, people are going to say, well, that's not a worthy cause.

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这个比那个更值得。

This was more worthy than that.

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这种巨额的、看不见的社会负债随之而来。

Enormous amount of invisible social debt that comes with that.

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跟我多讲讲这个。

Talk to me more about that.

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我特别喜欢这个概念。

I love that concept.

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我不想讨论那些极端例子,比如贝索斯那种情况。

I don't want to talk about extremes where, like, Bezos Yeah.

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以及类似的情况。

Mosque and that.

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但是这种社会债务,就像你去参加婚礼时,因为你有更多钱就得给更多礼金。

But the the social debt, like, almost like you go to a wedding and you have to give more because you have more.

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是不是

Is that

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或者当你朋友知道你有钱时,你们一起出去吃饭,你就被迫买单之类的。

Or you go out to if your friends know that you have money, you go out to dinner, you're you're forced to pay kind of thing.

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或者就像,哦,我听说这家伙去年刚拿了一大笔奖金。

Or like, oh, I heard I heard this guy just got a huge bonus last year.

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让我们看看他会送我什么圣诞礼物之类的。

Let's see what he gets me for Christmas kind of thing.

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这背后确实伴随着很多东西。

That there's there's a lot of that that comes with it.

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当然,这也是个好问题。

And, course, it's a good problem to have.

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你根本不该同情那些赚了太多钱而如今背负社交债务的人,别哭了,自己想办法解决吧。

It's you you should not have sympathy for people who made so much money that they now have social debt, like boohoo, know, deal with it.

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但这确实是个现实问题,很多时候只是你自己或家人内心的驱动力,比如:我们现在钱多了,大概该买更多东西了。

But it's a real thing, and a lot of it is just the incentive on yourself, or within your own family to be like, oh, we have more money now, I guess we should buy more stuff.

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这是一种压力,让你去做一些你可能根本不想做的事。

It's like this pressure to do something that you may or may not actually want.

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我还想到一个奇怪的小故事:从华盛顿特区到波士顿的美铁列车上,总有一节安静车厢。

One one other, like like, weird oddball story that I've thought about here, on the Amtrak train from Washington DC to Boston is where it goes, there is always a quiet car.

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那是列车上一个特定区域,如果你想要工作或休息,就必须保持完全安静。

It's it's one section of the train where you're supposed to be completely quiet if you wanna get some work done or whatnot.

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但总是发生的是,你去那里是为了寻求宁静,可安静车厢里的每个人却都如此焦虑不安。

And always what happens, you go there for peace and serenity, but everyone on the quiet car is so anxious and upset.

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因为在安静车厢里,只要有人轻声细语,或者手机不小心响了,人们就会崩溃,因为他们期待这里完全安静。

Because on the quiet car, if someone so much as whispers, or if your phone accidentally goes off, people lose their minds because they have this expectation that it's gonna be completely quiet.

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所以哪怕是最微小的声音,都会让他们失控。

And so the slightest little sound sets them off.

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讽刺的是,你去那里是为了寻求宁静,但你却因此变得异常愤怒,因为只要有人发出一点声音,你就会抓狂。

And the irony is you go there for serenity, but you're just so angry while you're there because if anyone's making any noise, it drives you crazy.

Speaker 0

这其实说明了一个道理:一旦你的期望改变了,再小的事都可能让你沮丧。

And it's this thing of just like, if your expectations shift, then the littlest thing can can make you upset.

Speaker 0

所以当你进入安静车厢时,没错,它确实更安静,但你也因此背上了某种‘声音债务’。

So like when you go to the quiet car, yes, it is quieter, but you also have this like sound debt that comes with it, you could say.

Speaker 0

这种看不见的声音债务,现在成了一种负担。

This invisible sound debt that is a liability now.

Speaker 0

我觉得金钱也是如此,你赚的钱越多,就越有压力要去过一种更好的生活,而这种生活未必真的让你更快乐。

And I think it's so true with money as well, that the more money you gain, the more pressure you have to live a better life that may or may not actually make you happier.

Speaker 0

演员威尔·史密斯说过,当他贫穷又沮丧时,他会告诉自己:只要我有更多的钱,所有问题都会消失。

Will Smith, the actor said that when he was poor and depressed, he could tell himself, if only I had more money, all my problems would go away.

Speaker 1

是的。

Right.

Speaker 0

当他变得富有后,却依然抑郁,他就不能再这么说下去了。

And then when he became rich, and he was still depressed, he couldn't say that anymore.

Speaker 0

他依然感到抑郁,但他意识到:我不能再讲‘如果我有更多的钱,我就会更快乐’了,因为我已经拥有远超我所需的钱了。

He was still depressed, but he was like, I can't say that if I had more money, I would be happier, because I already had more money than I could ever spend.

Speaker 0

所以他说,当他变得富有时,只是剥夺了他原有的希望。

So he said what happened when he became rich is it just removed the hope that he had.

Speaker 0

当他贫穷时,他怀抱着希望:只要我赚更多钱,一切就会好起来。

When he was poor, he had this hope like, oh, I gotta make more money, and then I'll be okay.

Speaker 0

当他富有后,他发现自己失去了所有的希望。

When he's rich, he's like he lost all the hope.

Speaker 0

他依然感到抑郁。

He's still depressed.

Speaker 0

以为‘只要我有钱,我的问题就会消失’,这种想法确实很鼓舞人心;但当你真的拥有了这些钱,却发现问题依然存在,甚至更多时,这可能让人难以接受。

Like, it's it's very inspiring to think if I have more money, my problems will go away, But then once you have that money and you realize that you still have just as many problems, maybe even more problems than you had before, that could be a tough thing for people to wrap their heads around.

Speaker 1

我们昨晚聊到过这一点,意思是那些有钱人其实也无法真正谈论金钱,因为他们和普通人一样面临同样的问题,但他们觉得不能公开谈论,因为听起来像是在抱怨。

We were talking about that a little bit last night in the sense of people who have money can't really talk about money either because they have all the same problems that everybody else has, but they don't feel like they can openly converse about it because it's like boohoo.

Speaker 0

确实如此。

It's true.

Speaker 0

这些都是抱怨的问题。

They are boohoo problems.

Speaker 0

世界上有大得多的问题,比如你付不起医疗保险,或者无家可归,等等,那些问题要严重得多。

There are much bigger problems in the world if you can't afford health insurance, you're homeless, whatever, there are much, much bigger problems.

Speaker 0

但第一世界的问题在人们心里确实是真实的问题,你说得对,大多数人确实不敢谈论这些。

But first world problems are real problems in people's heads, and you're right that they're, by and large, can't talk about them.

Speaker 0

当你把一群富人聚在一起,让他们在一个安全的环境中开始交谈时,他们会发现彼此的问题竟然都一模一样。

It's very interesting when you get together a group of wealthy people into a room where they can all start, like in that safety zone, they can talk about their problems, and they all have the same problems.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我该怎么不宠坏我的孩子?

How do I not spoil my kids?

Speaker 0

我该怎么做呢?

How do I do this?

Speaker 0

这些问题是他们无法与生活中任何人谈论的,因为这些问题与那些真正现实的物质健康生活问题截然不同,但当你拥有大量财富,甚至只是适度的金钱时,会有很多难以解决的问题,连你最亲近的朋友都无法倾诉。

Things that they can't talk about with anyone else in their life because those problems are so different from the other, like, very real material health living problems, but there are lots of things that are very difficult to figure out when you have a lot of money, or even just a modest amount of money that you can't talk about, even with some of your closest friends.

Speaker 1

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我肯定你有一些朋友,他们的经济状况比你和我差。

I am sure you do have friends who have less money than you and I do.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

你可以和那些朋友聊,任何其他事情都可以谈。

And you can talk about with those friends, you can talk about anything else in Yeah.

Speaker 0

婚姻问题、健康问题,不管是什么问题。

Problems with your marriage, problems with your health, whatever it might be.

Speaker 0

但还有许多其他事情,你心里想着:我根本没法谈论那些现在真正让我焦虑的问题。

And there's all these other things that you're like, I can't talk about the things that are actually giving me anxiety right now.

Speaker 1

现在看来,贯穿整个对话,我们需要思考的元技能是如何学会管理我们的期望。

It seems like the meta skill to think about right now throughout this conversation is how do we learn to manage our expectations?

Speaker 0

这也许就是我们当初开始这个播客的初衷。

This is maybe this is how we started the podcast.

Speaker 0

我不希望我的期望永远不变。

I don't want my expectations to never move.

Speaker 0

我希望它们的增长速度能比我的财富增长稍慢一些。

I want them to just grow a little bit slower than my wealth over time.

Speaker 0

我希望在五十年后,我的物质生活能在某种程度上变得更好。

I want it so that in fifty years, I hope that I'm living a better material life to to some degree.

Speaker 0

我只是不希望这个水平在时间推移中超过我的净资产。

I just want that level to not exceed my net worth over time.

Speaker 0

一旦你的抱负超过了财富的增长,人们就会开始承担过高的风险。

Once your aspirations exceed your the growth of your wealth, that's when people get they take too much risk.

Speaker 1

他们会负债,不管是什么情况。

They go into debt, whatever it might be.

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