摩根·豪塞尔：财富即你拥有的减去你想要的

是的。

Yeah.

根本不可能每个人想当职业篮球运动员都能做到。

Like, there's no world in which everyone who wants to be a pro basketball player can do it.

它应该是顶尖中的顶尖。

It's supposed to be the tippity top of of of the best.

投资也是如此。

And And so same in investing.

不应该存在一种情况，让每个有抱负的股票选股者都能战胜市场。

Like, there should not be a world in which every ambitious stock picker can beat the market.

每当听到统计数据说95%的共同基金跑输基准时，我就想，是啊。

Of of of course, whenever you hear the statistics about 95% of mutual funds underperform their benchmark, I'm like, yeah.

你期望什么呢？

What what would you expect?

你指望它是100%吗？

Do you expect it to be a 100%?

就像每个尝试的人都能轻松赚钱？

Like, everyone who tries just prints money?

当然，这很难。

Of course, it's hard.

所以很多都是这样。

And so so a lot of that.

但在这种情况下，每个人都觉得自己是那能成功的1%。

But, of course, in that situation, everybody thinks they're part of the 1% who can do it.

但很少有人能做到，这并不该让人惊讶。

But it shouldn't surprise anyone that very few people can.

对大多数人来说，买房是他们最大的一笔支出之一。

For most people, one of their largest purchases is their house.

什么时候买房是明智的，什么时候又不是明智的？

When does it make sense to purchase a house, and when doesn't it make sense to purchase a house?

如果你和你的家人喜欢某个社区，并打算长期居住，而且房价在你们家庭预算的合理范围内，那么买房就是明智的。

It makes sense if it's the right neighborhood for you and your family, where you wanna live for a long period of time, and is within reason of your household budget.

现在这完全是另一个话题，关于应该占多大比例。

Now that's a completely different topic of what percentage it should be.

那是另一回事。

That's that's a different thing.

但你不应该因为害怕错过而买房，即使你心里没有明确这样想——比如，看到房价涨了很多，觉得那栋房子真漂亮，住进去生活会好很多，但其实我们根本负担不起，或者会非常吃力，可还是觉得住进去会更好。

But you should not do it because you have even if you don't define it like this in your head, because you have some level of FOMO of, man, housing prices have gone up a lot and, like, oh, that house looks so nice and things would be and we can't really afford it or it's gonna be a huge stretch, but, oh, life will be so much better in there.

这是买房最糟糕的理由。

That's the worst reason to own a house.

我对此非常理解，我认为这实际上解释了西方世界生育率危机的很大一部分原因：大多数父母，即使没有明确说出来，也想在生第一个孩子之前完成几项指标。

Part of this that I have a lot of empathy for, and I think actually explains a lot of the fertility crisis in the Western world, is that most parents, even if they don't actually vocalize this, wanna check a couple boxes before they have a child, their first child.

其中最重要的一条就是拥有一套房子。

One of the biggest one is own a house.

随着住房在西方世界变得越来越昂贵——英国如此，加拿大如此，澳大利亚也是如此——房价越贵，就有越多有好工作、婚姻稳固的好人，他们二十八九岁，放在过去任何一个时代都会开始组建家庭。

And as housing becomes more unaffordable all over the Western world, it's like this in The UK, like this in Canada, it's like this in Australia, the more unaffordable it gets, the more you're gonna have good people with good jobs and solid marriages, and they're 28, 29, nine years old, and in any other era would start building a start having a family.

但今天，他们却说：不。

And today, they say, no.

我知道，我真的很希望在做这件事之前，能拥有房子带来的稳定感和成年后的成就感。

I I, you know, I I really want the stability and the feeling of having made it into adulthood of owning a house before I do that.

如果没有这一点，就会引发巨大的问题。

And in the absence of that, it causes, like, tremendous problems.

因此，我认为可负担住房是最大的社会问题，尤其是在美国，可能现在在加拿大也是如此，因为许多看似比这更严重的问题，其实都源于住房问题。

So housing affordable housing, I think, is the single biggest social problem, certainly in America, probably in Canada right now, because so many other social problems that might seem bigger than that are downstream of housing.

许多药物问题、药物危机，都是由住房负担不起引发的。

A lot of the drug problem, the drug crisis, is downstream from unaffordable housing.

生育危机也是由住房负担不起导致的。

The fertility crisis is downstream from unaffordable housing.

政治的恶化也是源于住房无法负担。

The the degradation of politics is downstream from affordable housing.

因为如果你觉得自己没有真正投入社区或国家，就更容易产生‘干脆把这一切都烧掉’的想法。

Because if you don't feel like you're invested in your community or you're invested in your country, it's much easier to be like, burn the place down.

政治崩塌了又怎样？

Who cares if politics is melting down?

你并没有真正投入其中。

You're not invested in it.

你在整个体系中是漂泊不定的。

You're kind of transient in the system.

你可以搬到另一个城市。

You can move to another city.

但作为我自己这样的房主，我深知自己非常关心地方政治。

But as a homeowner myself, I know that, like, care deeply about local politics.

我非常关心当地的公园和学校。

I care deeply about the local parks and the schools.

我确实深深投入于这个社区。

Like, I am very invested in this community.

但如果你不是房主，你就不会真的在意。

But if you're not, you don't really care.

因此，我认为政治中发生的许多问题都可以归因于住房负担不起。

And so I think a lot of what's going on in politics can be tied to unaffordable housing.

塔克·卡尔森，我并不常同意他的观点，但他最近说了一番话，我觉得非常深刻且真实。

Tucker Carlson, who I don't often agree with, said something I thought was very profound and true recently.

他说，我是在转述他的话，但他说，衡量一个国家健康状况的一个良好指标，就是28岁的人是否能买得起房子。

He said, like, a good I'm paraphrasing him, but he said, a good proxy for the health of a country is whether or not a 28 year old can purchase a house.

我当时就想，这太棒了。

I was like, that's great.

这是一个判断整体状况好坏的非常好的经验法则。

That's a very good rule of thumb for how well things are going.

当然，在美国、加拿大和英国，总体来说，现在根本买不起。

And of course, know in US and Canada and UK, like, by and large, you can't right now.

是的。

Yeah.

真的非常困难。

It's really difficult.

这需要在多个层面上加以解决。

It's something that that needs to be solved on multiple levels.

对吧？

Right?

比如，老师应该能住在他们教书的社区里。

Like, teachers should be able to live in the neighborhood that they teach in.

是的。

Yeah.

消防员也应该能住在他们服务的社区里。

Firefighters should be able to live in the neighborhood they teach in.

一个全职工作的人，想想看，即使不到28岁，比如24、25岁，也应当有能力负担房贷。

Somebody working full time, think, you know, even younger than 28, you know, 24, 25 should be able to support a mortgage.

而且，我很希望看到这个问题得到解决。

And, you know, I would love to see that problem solved.

真正令人气愤的是，为什么这个问题不该成为民众举着火把和长矛抗议的焦点？因为我认为，说这个问题本质上既容易解决，又纯粹是一个选择问题，并没有过度简化。

What should be so aggravating about this and why this should be like a pitchforks and torches issue is that I don't think it's an oversimplification to say the problem is, A, very easy to solve, and B, is literally just a choice.

对。

Yeah.

住房如此昂贵的根本原因几乎就在于我们建造的房屋不够。

That virtually all of the reason that housing is so unaffordable is because we don't build enough.

而我们建造不够的原因是分区法规。

And the reason we don't build enough is zoning.

我认为这并不是一种过度简化。

I don't think that's an oversimplification.

我们有大量的土地。

We there is plenty of land.

有大量的资本。

There's plenty of capital.

有充足的需求来完成这件事。

There's plenty of demand to get this done.

而且有一些城市确实建了很多，它们是规模庞大、人口密集的大城市，住房却非常实惠。

And there are examples of cities that do build that are very large, dense cities that have very affordable housing.

东京，一座巨大的城市，比我们现在所在的纽约还要大。

Tokyo, a gigantic city, bigger than the city you and I are in right now in New York.

住房非常便宜，因为他们一直在建设。

Very affordable housing relatively because they build.

他们不停地建，建，建，建。

They build and build and build and build.

是的。

Yeah.

而我们却没有，尤其是与前几代人相比。

And the fact that we don't, especially relative to previous generations.

如果你回到上世纪五十年代和六十年代的美国，你会看到到处都在施工。

If you went back to the nineteen fifties and sixties in America, you would have seen construction everywhere.

对。

Yeah.

你放眼望去，到处都是新建的社区。

Everywhere you look, there would have been a new community.

正因为如此，我们增加了住房供应，住房相对便宜。

And because of that, we added supply and housing was relatively affordable.

而我们现在不再这样做了。

And we don't anymore.

这是一种选择。

And it's a choice.

说人们想要住房昂贵，这是一种愤世嫉俗的观点。

It's It's cynical to say that people want unaffordable housing.

不建造我们所需数量的住房，这是一种选择。

It is a choice to not build as much as we need.

嗯，这里有个奇怪的激励机制，因为任何拥有房产的人，当你考虑可负担性时，会想：这会影响我的资产净值吗？如果房价下跌10%，而我们这里杠杆很高的话。

Well, there's a weird incentive because anybody who owns a home, when you think of affordability, it's like, how does that affect my equity and my if house prices go down 10%, and we're we're leveraged here.

对吧？

Right?

所以房价下跌10%可能会抹去我75%的资产净值。

So a 10% drawdown in a house price might wipe out 75% of my equity.

但我认为这种想法也是有缺陷的。

But I think that is flawed thinking too.

我来告诉你为什么。

I'll tell you why.

我们先简化一下数字。

Let's say just keep the numbers simple.

你花十万块买了一套房。

You buy a house for a 100,000.

我们说一百万吧，这样更合理一些。

Let's say 1,000,000, make it more more reasonable.

你花一百万买了一套房，结果房价翻了一倍。

You buy a house for a million bucks, and the price doubles.

很好。

Great.

在你心里，你会想：我刚赚了一百万。

In your mind, you're like, I just made a million dollars.

是的。

Yeah.

但不是这样的。

But no.

因为如果你以两百万的价格卖掉那所房子，你还需要再买另一所房子来住。

Because if you sell that house for 2,000,000, you need to buy another house to live in.

而你接下来要买的那所房子，价格在过去两年里也翻了一倍。

And the next house you're gonna buy, the price also doubled in the last two years.

所以这是一种类似狂热的现象：你积累的房产净值其实并不是真正的财富，因为你卖掉那所房子后，很可能还得买另一所同样涨价了的房子。

And so it's this fandom kind of thing where it's like the equity that you build isn't really wealth because you when you sell that house, you probably have to buy another one that went up in value just as much.

除非你搬去一个更便宜的城市——当然，这种情况确实会发生，否则你并不会从中获得任何实际收益。

And unless you are moving to a cheaper city, which, of course, that happens, you're not you're not getting any benefit out of that.

过去一年里，我和我妻子在我们居住的地方亲身体验了这种情况。

I my my wife and I have experienced this in in where we live in the last year.

我们之前住的那所房子在四年里价格翻了一倍，这本不该发生，但确实发生了。

The house that we lived in previously doubled in four years, which is not like, shouldn't happen, but it did.

我们住的那所房子价格翻倍了，然后大约一年前我们卖掉了它，买了一套新房子。

The house doubled we lived in, and then we sold it about a year ago, bought a new house.

我们买的新房子价格也是四年前售价的两倍。

And the new house that we bought was also we bought it for twice as much as it would have sold for four years before.

那么我们真的从中学到钱了吗？

So do we actually make money on that?

我们其实并没有从中获得多少好处。

Like, we we we could have it it didn't really help us that much.

如果我们生活在一个房价从不上涨的世界里，当然会有许多房主大肆宣扬：我以前能积累房产净值，现在却不能了。

And if we lived in a world where home prices never went up, you would, of course, have a lot of crowing from homeowners who'd be like, I used to build equity, and now I don't.

但事实是，他们其实也没变得更糟，因为如果现在卖房再买房，新房子的价格也同样更低了。

But the truth is is that, like, they're actually just as well off because the homes that they could buy if they sold now cost less as well.

我看过一些报告，至少在加拿大，新房价格的30%基本上是政府收费。

I've seen reports, at least in Canada, that 30% of the price of a new home is basically government fees.

我相信这一点。

I believe it.

这太荒谬了。

And it's insane.

对吧？

Right?

我们正在放慢节奏。

We're slowing things down.

Anyway，我们可以跳过这个话题了。

Anyway, we can get off this.

但我想转到你具体是怎么投资你的钱的？

But I want to switch to how exactly do you invest your money?

一步一步给我讲讲。

Walk me through step by step.

嗯，这不会是个长篇大论，因为很简单。

Well, it's it's not gonna be a long conversation because it's easy.

我采用定投方式买入指数基金。

I dollar cost average into index funds.

我希望持有它们五十年，就这样。

I hope to own them for fifty years, and that's it.

我的全部净资产包括一套房子、现金、先锋指数基金、马克尔公司的股票，我还在马克尔公司董事会任职。

My entire net worth is a house, cash, Vanguard index funds, shares and of Markel where I'm on the board of directors.

就这样了。

And then that's it.

我不认为有必要让事情变得比这更复杂。

And I don't I don't think it needs necessarily to be more complicated than that.

我认为在理财方面，认为自己的净资产像鲁布·戈德堡机械一样复杂，有这么多杠杆和策略，才是最明智的，这种想法非常直观。

I think it is very intuitive in finance to be like, I will do the best if it's if my net worth looks like a Rube Goldberg machine, and it's just so complicated, and there's so many levers and strategies in this.

我并不否认聪明人可以通过复杂的交易在财务上取得成功。

And it's not I don't discount that smart people can do well financially with complicated transactions.

我只是觉得这完全没必要。

I just don't think it's necessary at all.

这或许和健康领域有个类似的比喻。

And maybe there's an analogy to health in this.

那些著名的生物黑客把身体当作一台鲁布·戈德堡机械，认为必须最大化优化它，吃各种补品、遵循特定饮食等等。

There are the well known biohackers out there who are just trying they view their body as a Rube Goldberg machine, and they're like, I gotta maximize this and do this and take these pills and this diet and whatnot.

我不认为这一定不好，虽然我自己完全不是健康专家，但我觉得你看。

I don't think that's necessarily bad, but without being any any bit of a health expert at all myself, I'm like, look.

如果你只是保持均衡饮食、每天睡八小时、每周锻炼几次，那可能就足够了。

If you just eat a balanced diet and sleep eight hours and exercise a couple times a week, that's that's probably good enough.

这很可能已经让你达到了生化黑客所能取得的90%或95%的效果，甚至可能达到100%。

That's probably getting you 90 or 95% of the way or maybe even a 100% of the way to the results that the biohacker is going to get.

我认为总体上来说，这确实是正确的。

I think I think that's by and large true.

我对理财的看法也非常相似：我那简单到近乎笨拙的财务安排，我相信在一生的时间跨度里——不是某一年，而是整个人生——如果和那些财务极其复杂、交易繁多的人相比，是的。

And I view finances very similarly, where my just painfully simple finances, I bet over the course of a lifetime, not in any given year, but over a lifetime, if you compared it to someone whose finances were very complicated and had all kinds of transactions Yeah.

我不但很可能与他们持平，甚至可能超越他们。

Not only would I be likely to match those, but probably exceed them.

而我几乎没花什么力气就做到了。

And I did it with virtually zero effort.

这就是我这么做的原因。

And that's why I do it.

我不建议其他人也这么做。

I don't recommend other people do it.

这符合我的性格，让我能专注于我想要的变量——耐力。

It fits my personality, and it allows me to focus on the variable that I want to, which is endurance.

越简单，就越容易做到。

The simpler it is, the easier it is.

我认为这样做的成功率更高，我能一直坚持下去。

I think the higher the odds that I'll just I can just stay with it.

但如果太复杂，我可能会在经济、事业或认知能力的某个阶段，无法继续维持下去。

Whereas if it was very complicated, I might get to a point in the economy or my career or my cognitive capacity where, like, I can't keep it going.

所以我认为，我能够让它保持五十年不变的可能性越高，就越有可能通过这种方式实现财富最大化。

And so I think the higher the odds that I can just leave it alone for fifty years, the higher the odds that you will actually maximize wealth doing it.

我喜欢这种思维方式。

I love that that thinking.

让我了解一下，一百块钱是怎么进入你家的。

Walk me through a 100 comes into your house.

它是如何分配的？

How does it get allocated?

我经常进行心理记账，也就是说，钱是可替代的。

I do a lot of mental accounting by which I mean of, like, money is fungible.

一美元和任何其他美元都是一样的，但我在生活中会进行大量的心理记账，比如，我卖书。

$1 is is the same as any other dollar, but I have a lot of mental accounting where my in my own life, you know, I I sell books.

我参加各种会议演讲。

I speak at conferences.

我还做一些类似的事情。

I do some some other stuff like that.

在我的脑海里，我会想：好吧。

And it's very much, like, in my head, I'm like, okay.

卖书的收入归这里。

The book money goes here.

演讲的收入归这里。

The speaking money goes here.

我花这笔钱和那笔钱。

I spend this and that.

我有很多这种心理记账，虽然并不理性，但这就是我思考问题的方式。

I have a lot of, like, mental accounting that is not really rational, but it's just how I how I tend to think about it.

所以我把所有卖书赚的钱都存起来了。

And so I've I've saved all my book money.

我到现在一分钱都没花过卖书赚来的钱。

I've now I haven't spent a single penny of the money that I made from books.

而且，我并不认为这是延迟满足。

And, again, I don't view that as delayed gratification.

它让我实现了财务自由，并且让我今天就能从中获得价值。

It's made me financially independent and in a way that I get value from today.

所以这真的很有帮助。

And so that's really helpful.

我和我妻子——十年前是这样，今天依然是这样，我和我妻子想买什么就买什么。

My wife and I this would have been true ten years ago, and it's true today, that my wife and I buy anything we want.

但特别是十年前，我们并不想要那么多。

But particularly ten years ago, we didn't want that much.

现在有了孩子，对生活有了更多经验，我们稍微放松了一点。

We've loosened up a little bit now that we have kids and, like, have, you know, a little more more experience with life.

但其实我们根本没有预算。

But there's there's really no budget.

但我从青少年时期起就一直是这样。

There's no but I've been like that since I was a teenager.

我从来觉得存钱很难。

I never found it hard to save money.

这看起来一直都是件很自然的事，我想。

It was always just seemed like the the the obvious thing to do, I guess.

你在哪些方面放松得最多？

Where have you loosened up the most?

大概是我们的房子。

Probably our house.

我们一年前买了一栋很棒的房子，特别棒的是我可以在家工作。

We have a we have a cool house we bought a year ago, and it's what's great is that I work from home.

我妻子也待在家里。

My wife is is at home.

所以我们99%的时间都在家里。

And so we're there 99% of that.

这构成了我们生活的核心。

Like, that is the core of our life.

既然如此，还不如好好享受它。

Like, you might as well enjoy it.

而且，我觉得这房子很棒的一点是，基本上别人看不到它。

And also, what I think is great about the house is that by and large, other people don't see it.

它不是一辆我会在城里炫耀的车。

It's not a car that I'm showing off around town.

也不是我走在机场时希望别人注意到的衣服。

It's not clothes that I want people to notice when I'm at the airport.

这纯粹是为我们自己准备的。

It's like, this is just for us.

这是内部的衡量标准。

This is internal benchmark.

我喜欢这种感觉，就像我是第一个享受这一切的人。

Like, I enjoy this, and I I love the feeling of, like, I'm an early ride.

我每天比妻子和孩子早起三个小时，这在我生活中也非常重要。

I wake up three hours before my wife and kids, which I really value that in my life too.

我喜欢在黑暗中独自下楼，坐在沙发上，喝着咖啡，环顾四周，心想，是的，这真棒。

And I love coming downstairs alone by myself in the dark and sitting on the couch with a cup of coffee and just looking around and being like, yeah, this is cool.

我喜欢这种感觉。

I like this.

但重要的是，没人看到我这样做。

But what's important is that, like, no one else sees me do that.

我不是在向陌生人表演什么。

I'm not I'm not trying I'm not putting on a show for strangers.

这并不是一种身份象征。

It's not a status thing.

这并不是一种身份象征。

It's not a status thing.

这完全是内部的基准。

It is total internal benchmark.

所以即使我们——你知道的，我不太想说我们在这方面投入过多，但我觉得正是这一点让我们觉得，哦，这对我们来说是值得的。

And so even if we have, you know I I don't wanna say overinvested in that, but I feel like that that's the one thing where we're like, oh, this is worth it for us.

在这里花很多钱完全值得。

Totally worth it to spend a lot of money here.

几周前我和巴里·迪勒聊过，他提到一些关于住房的事情，让我印象深刻。

I was talking to Barry Diller a few weeks ago, and he mentioned something about housing that stuck with me.

他说，小时候，他看着那些房子，说里面的装修很少有外面那么漂亮。

And he said, you know, growing up, I looked at all these houses, and he said the inside is rarely as beautiful as the outside.

是的。

Yeah.

因为外观，你希望陌生人开车经过时看到，会说：‘哇，看看那户人家。’

Because the outside, want stranger you want people to drive past and pie and be like, oh, look at that person.

我认为确实如此，你知道，有多少人请园丁或景观设计师，相比有多少人请室内设计师之类的。

I think it's true that, you know, how many people have gardeners, landscapers, relative to how many people have, like, interior designers or whatnot.

我敢说，我们这里讨论的当然是发达国家的问题，但我认为，有更多人请景观设计师，一部分是因为他们不想弄脏自己，另一部分则是，我认为，无论你是否意识到，你都希望别人，包括陌生人，开车经过时觉得：‘这房子真不错。’

And I I I would venture we're we're talking first world problems here, of course, but I would venture that many more people have landscapers, part of which because they don't wanna get dirty, but part of which is, like, I think I think whether you know it or not consciously, you want people, including strangers, to drive by and be like, oh, that's a nice house.

住在这里的人会是谁呢？

Wonder who lives there.

但你家的内部可能很乱，至少相对而言，是的。

But the inside of your house might be a dump, at least in relative terms Yeah.

因为那些内部的东西，你无法像外部那样展示，你比其他人更注重外部的评价。

Because the internal stuff that you can't like, you you're you're you're are more external benchmark focused than others.

我认为这很可能没错。

I think that that's probably right.

另一种解读方式是，我第一次听到时想到的是：哦，这可能是婚姻问题。

One of the other ways to interpret that, and I think the way that I went when I heard it at first was like, oh, there's marital problems.

孩子也有问题。

There's problems with the kids.

就像那些我们从小就觉得：我想住在那样的房子里，过那样的生活。

There's like the the, you know, these people who we we grow up going like, I want to live in that house, and I want that life.

但如果你推开那扇门，走进那样的生活，你会发现，孩子根本不和父母说话。

And if you open that door and walked into that life, you know, it's kids who don't talk to parents.

是的。

Yeah.

对。

Yeah.

我记得一个非常具体的例子。

I remember this one is a very specific example.

P. Diddy 本身就有许多法律和道德问题，大家当然都知道。

P Diddy, who has his own host of of legal issues and and and moral issues, of course, everyone knows them.

几年前，在他的刑事诉讼过程中，警方公布了他家内部的照片。

As part of his criminal process a couple years ago, the police released pictures of the inside of his house.

我觉得那是他在洛杉矶的家。

I think it was his house in LA.

不过也可能是在迈阿密。

It may have been Miami, though.

这是P Diddy的家。

And this is Pete Diddy's house.

所以从外面看，这简直是一座豪宅，正如你所预期的那样。

So on the outside, it is a freaking mansion, as you would expect.

但那些被公开的犯罪现场照片显示，房子内部简直一团糟。

The inside of the house where the pictures were released, these crime scene photos, place is a dump.

里面乱得像垃圾场。

Place is a dump.

天哪。

Oh gosh.

这真是太有意思了。

And that was so interesting.

我当时想，从外面看，尤其是像他这样的名人，路过的人肯定会觉得那是一座豪宅。

I was like, I think from the outside, particularly a celebrity like that, it's like the people who drive by are gonna see a mansion.

但里面呢，当只有我和孩子们的时候，我就想，管他呢？

But inside, when it's just me and the kids and what I'm just like, yeah, who cares?

这地方简直一团糟。

It's a dump.

我觉得这特别有意思。

And I was I I thought that was very interesting.

如果我们把人生划分为四个主要阶段：二十岁、三十岁、四十岁和五十岁，人们在这些阶段应该如何思考赚钱和花钱？

If we divide life into four major eras, the twenties, thirties, forties, and fifties, how should people think about acquiring and spending money in those eras?

我认为每个人的情况都截然不同，因为有些人十四岁就找到了方向，而有些人直到四十岁才找到，甚至有些人一辈子都找不到。

I think it's so different for everybody because a lot of people find their way when they're 14 and other people find it when they're 40, if ever.

所以我很难给出一个明确的公式，但我觉得大致上，从模糊的角度来看，从出生到二十岁，人们是在塑造自我认同。

So I hesitate to give like a formula for it, but I think it tends to broadly be true in a gray way, not in a black and white way that, like, probably age birth to 20, you're forming an identity.

你只是在努力弄清楚自己是谁，理解自己的天性等等。

You're just trying to figure out who you are, and you're trying to make sense of how you're wired and whatnot.

你正在探索自己的身份。

You're just figuring out your identity.

20到30岁之间，总的来说，你是在学习一项技能。

20 to 30, I think by and large, you are learning a skill.

希望这一点再次说明，这非常好。

Hopefully, that that again, this is great.

这里的情况其实是一个灰色地带。

This is this is this is a shade of gray here.

你正在学习一项技能。

You're learning a skill.

在三十多岁时，你可以将这项技能付诸实践。

In your thirties, you can put that skill to work.

在四十岁和五十岁的时候，希望你能充分运用这项技能，并从中赚到钱。

And in your forties and fifties, hopefully, you can really exploit that skill and and make some money doing it.

我认为，作为一个非常宽泛的人生公式，这可能非常不错。

I think as a very broad broad stroke formula for life, that can be great.

现在，我能想到无数个没有走这条路却依然取得巨大成就并感到幸福的人。

Now, I I I can think of a million examples of people who did not follow that path and ended up great and ended up happy.

所以这并不是绝对的，但我认为总体上来说，这种情况通常是成立的。

And so that's not but I think in general, that tends to be true.

我认为，很难遇到一个非常成功的人，却从未经历过类似的过程。

I think it's it's hard to meet someone who is very successful, didn't have something like that.

偶尔，你会遇到一些人，他们在青少年时期就找到了自己的方向，23岁就赚到了大笔财富，28岁基本就可以退休了。

Once in a while, you'll see find someone who, again, found their way when they were a teenager and were making a fortune when they were 23 and could basically retire at 28.

像这样的人确实是存在的。

Like, those people exist.

但我认为，在你25岁、30岁、35岁之前，很难真正了解自己是谁，我甚至都不太敢说这个年龄界限。

But I think it's it's very difficult to know who you are before you are, you know, hesitate to say, 25, 30, 35.

前几天有人问我怎么看Z世代，因为有很多文章说Z世代迷茫、放纵、缺乏工作 ethic 之类的。

Someone was asking me about this the other day about what do I think of Gen Z because there was so much written about Gen Z is adrift and wayward and lacks the work ethic and whatnot.

这类文章和评论到处都是。

Those articles and commentaries exist everywhere.

这让我想起，仿佛昨天我们的那一代——千禧一代——十五年前，人们也对我们有同样的说法。

And it reminded me, was like, it it seems like it was yesterday that our my generation, the millennials, everyone was saying that about us fifteen years ago.

千禧一代迷失了方向。

The millennials are adrift.

他们没有工作精神。

They don't have the work ethic.

他们没有前辈婴儿潮一代所拥有的价值观。

They don't have the values that the baby boomers and they did before them.

如果你回溯到20世纪70年代，人们也对婴儿潮一代说过完全相同的话。

And if you go back to the nineteen seventies, they said the exact same thing about the baby boomers.

他们迷失了方向。

They're adrift.

他们没有工作精神。

They don't have the work ethic.

他们没有价值观。

They don't have the values.

回溯到三十年代，人们当时对如今被称为最伟大一代的人也说过同样的话。

Go back to the thirties, and they said the exact same about what we now know as the greatest generation.

他们没有道德。

They don't have the morals.

他们没有工作精神。

They don't have the work ethic.

他们迷失了方向。

They're adrift.

我认为真相是，无论哪一代人，几乎没有哪一代人在二十多岁时能表现得从容有尊严。

I think the truth is no matter the generation, no generation handles their twenties with a lot of grace and dignity.

这是一个非常艰难的时期，因为你仍在努力寻找自我。

It's a very difficult period because you're still trying to figure out who you are.

你从技术上讲已经成年了。

You are technically an adult.

你从技术上讲已经独立了，可以说离开了摇篮，正在努力认识自己，但很少有人能做到。

You are technically on your own and kind of, you know, out of the cradle and trying to figure yourself out, but very few people do.

我认为这在代际层面上也是成立的，这就是为什么老一辈人很容易、几乎是不可避免地会批评当下这代20岁年轻人的原因。

And I think that's true at a generational level, which is why it is so easy and almost inevitable that the older generation criticizes whoever the current crop of 20 year olds are.

我记得自己二十多岁时对财务问题的看法。

I remember in my twenties how I thought about things financially.

那时我已结婚，我们靠一份薪水生活。

I was married at the time, and we lived off one salary.

是的。

Yeah.

你从以前没钱、几乎在学生联盟大楼的垃圾桶里翻找食物，突然变成每两周领一次工资，这种感觉太不可思议了。

And that was our way of like because you go from making no money and, you know, like scrounging in the garbage basically for food at the student union building to sort of like, oh, you're getting a paycheck every two weeks.

这简直难以置信。

This is insane.

你知道吗？

You know?

所以我们决定，就靠一份工资生活，把另一份工资存起来。

And so we were like, oh, we'll just live off one paycheck and we'll save the other paycheck.

然后我们觉得，如果二十多岁过得对，就能为接下来的五十年打下基础。

And then the thinking was if we do our twenties right, it just sets up the next fifty years.

所谓过得对，就是我们和所有朋友都完全不同。

And by doing it right, we were totally different than all of our friends.

他们都在买房、建泳池，而我们呢，住在一间一居室的公寓里，靠一份沙拉勉强糊口。

So they were getting houses and pools, and we're like, we're in a one bedroom condo, you know, barely scraping by on one salad.

我们不去度假。

We're not going on vacation.

我们也不做其他那些事。

We're not doing all these other.

但我们从不觉得自己错过了什么，因为在我们心里，他们不过是月光族而已。

But we never felt like we were missing things with all these other people because, you know, in our heads, we just are like, oh, they're living paycheck to paycheck.

我们的生活远没有他们那么好。

And we don't have nearly as nice of a life as they do.

但如果我们能坚持十年，到了三十多岁、四十多岁，生活就会渐渐轻松起来。

But like if we can maintain this for a decade, then all of a sudden our thirties become a little bit easier, our forties become easier.

随着你逐渐变老，你会开始以不同的方式思考金钱，对吧？

And then as you sort of age, you start thinking about money differently, right?

到了四五十岁，你会想，哦，我得退休了。

In your forties and fifties, you're like, oh, I need to retire.

我该怎么在经济上照顾我的父母？

Like, how do I take care of my parents financially?

我该怎么还清房贷？

You know, how do I pay off the house?

我该怎么照顾我的父母？

How do I take care of my parents?

你怎么看待这些人生里程碑对人们的影响？

How do how do you see those milestones, like, affecting people?

我以前讲过这个故事，但我其实没怎么认真思考过：我小时候认识一个家伙。

I told this story once before, but I hadn't really thought about it very much is I grew up with a guy.

我曾经和一个家伙一起工作。

I worked with a guy.

我当时大概是18或19岁，而他大概28岁左右。

I was probably 18 or 19, and he was probably 28, let's say.

所以他比我大一点。

So he's little bit older than me.

我在一个滑雪场和他一起工作，我们俩都在滑雪装备租赁店上班。

I worked with him at a ski resort, and we we worked in the in the ski rental shop together.

他叫基普·加尔，是个特别棒的人。

His name is Kip Gar, really cool guy.

当时和他一起工作时，我知道他因为去滑雪旅行欠了25000美元的信用卡债务。

And Kip, at the time, I knew when we worked together, he had $25,000 in credit card debt from ski trips that he had taken.

他去过欧洲滑雪，也去过南美洲等地滑雪。

He'd skied in Europe, and he skied all South America and whatnot.

那时候我心想：25000美元的信用卡债务？

And at the time, I was like, $25 in credit card debt?

你真是个疯子。

You are a maniac.

你不是疯子。

You're not a maniac.

你是个傻瓜。

You're an idiot.

我为此一直取笑他。

And I gave him so much grief about it.

我觉得这几乎是每天都会发生的事。

And I just thought it was almost on, like, a daily basis.

我觉得你简直疯了。

I'm like, you are insane.

我简直无法想象。

I can't fathom it.

而这里最令人悲伤的结局是，Kip在30岁或32岁左右时死于一场滑雪事故。

And the very sad punchline here is Kip died in a ski accident when he was 30, 32, something like that.

令人惊讶的是，我脑海中立刻想到：真高兴你去过了那些旅行，伙计。

And it was amazing the speed at which in my head I was like, I'm so glad you took those trips, man.

我很高兴你在我们还年轻时就离开了我们之前，活出了这样的生活。

I'm so glad you lived the life you did before you tragically left us so young.

我经常想到这一点。

And I thought about that a lot.

当然，没有人应该活在自己会死于32岁或类似年龄的恐惧中。

And obviously, like, no one should live their life thinking they're they're they're gonna die at 32 or whatever it might be.

这不是一种健康的生活方式。

Not an appropriate way to live.

但我经常思考这样一个问题：如果你躺在病床上，

But I I I think a lot about, like, the question you should ask is if you were on your deathbed

是的。

Mhmm.

或者正面对死亡的威胁。

Or facing down the barrel of death.

谈论这个话题很糟糕，但其实也值得探讨。

This is a terrible thing to talk about, but it's but it's a fine thing to talk about.

你会后悔什么？

What would you regret?

你会回望什么？

What what would you look back on?

基普死于一场滑雪事故。

Kip died in a ski accident.

那就像一场登山事故。

It was like a mountaineering accident.

他当时正在小径上徒步。

He was he was hiking up the trail.

他被一场巨大的雪崩击中。

He was hit by a massive avalanche.

我一直在想，在那一刻，如果他有几秒钟意识到自己即将死去，生命在眼前闪现，以我对他的了解，他这一生若真在眼前掠过，他大概会说：‘操。’

And I I wonder in that moment if he had a a couple seconds of realizing he was about to die and his life flashes before his eyes, and I imagine just knowing him, the life he lived, if his life flashed before his eyes, he was probably like, fuck.

是的。

Yeah.

我做到了。

I did it.

我是做了一些很酷的事情。

Like, I did some cool things.

那么，你到底会后悔什么？

And so, like, so so what are you gonna regret?

我这一生，从成年起就一直是个节俭的人。

And I I've been a big saver my whole life, my whole adult life.

如果明天我遭遇那样的情况，愿上帝保佑，我不会因为没去旅行而后悔。

And if I were in that situation tomorrow, heaven forbid, I would not have the regrets for the trips I didn't

去旅行，嗯。

take Mhmm.

也不会因为其他事情后悔，因为我知道，我节省下来的钱能让我的妻子和孩子们过得很好。

And whatnot because I would take so much pleasure knowing that because I saved my wife and kids are gonna be okay.

没有什么比这对我来说更重要的了。

Nothing would matter more than me than that.

如果我面对那种境地，换句话说，知道我不但不在了，而且我的妻子和孩子们现在陷入了困境，我会感到极度后悔。

And I would massively regret it if I was staring down that barrel, so to speak, knowing that not only am I gone, but my wife and kids are are in in trouble now because okay.

因为那样的话，我会被无尽的遗憾压垮。

Because I'm that would that would leave me just overwhelmed with regrets.

所以，这从来都不是简单地选择‘活在当下’或‘为明天储蓄’。

So it is never as simple as being like, live for today or save for tomorrow.

关键永远在于：未来某个时刻，你最可能后悔的是什么？

It's always just what are you likely to regret at some point in the future?

那可能是明年。

It could be a year from now.

也可能是七十年后，躺在病床上临终时，无论何时。

It can be on your deathbed seventy years from now, whatever it is.

始终要思考你的遗憾承受能力，以及你可能后悔的事情。

Always thinking about your capacity for regret, what you are likely to regret.

而我的遗憾很可能和你的不一样。

And my regret's probably different than yours.

和基普的非常不同。

Very different from mine was from Kipp's.

所以我认为这就是我看待这个问题的方式。

And so it's I think that's that's how I think about it.

你必须不断思考未来可能让你后悔的事情。

You have to think constantly about what you're likely to regret in the future.

你会给年轻时的自己什么关于花钱的建议？

What advice would you give to your younger self about spending money?

有人问我

Someone asked me

最近有人提到这个，我觉得挺有意思的。

about this recently, and I thought it was interesting.

让我们回到我19岁的时候，我想那时候我们都那样。

Let's go back to when I was 19, and I think we were all, you know, at that age.

我当时是个储蓄者，但在19岁的时候，存下100美元简直像完成了一项壮举。

I was a saver, but at 19, it meant like saving a $100 was like a feat.

那可真是了不起。

That was a hero.

就是一百美元。

Like, a $100.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我存了一千美元，那简直太惊人了。

If I saved a thousand bucks, like, wow.

那简直太疯狂了。

That was a that's crazy.

我不确定具体数字是多少，但假设我投资了那一百美元，现在它已经值五百了。

And let's say I don't know what the numbers are, but let's say I because I invested that, that $100 is now worth 500.

考虑到市场的发展，大概就是这样的情况。

It's probably something like that with what the market's done.

今天的五百美元对我来说已经不算什么了。

$500 today does not mean that that much to me.

这没什么大不了的。

It's not that big a deal.

那么，值得吗？

So was it worth it?

或者，如果我有个时间机器，19岁的摩根是该用那100美元请朋友吃顿饭，还是该投资成今天对我而言微不足道的金额？

Or if I had a time machine, should 19 year old Morgan have taken his friends out to dinner with that $100 versus invested it into amount of money that means nothing to me today?

我的回应是，我认为这种想法并不正确，因为我认为，在年轻时抱着‘及时行乐、月光族’的心态，然后到了35岁就指望能突然转变成一个储蓄者，这是不可能的。

And my response was, I don't think that's the right way to think about it because I think it's impossible to have a YOLO paycheck to paycheck mentality in your young years and then assume that you're gonna flip a switch when you're 35 and become a saver.

所以在我看来，我至今能保持良好的财务习惯，是因为我在19岁的时候就养成了这些习惯。

And so I think the reason that I've had good financial habits, in my mind at least, through today is because I started them at 19.

不是那100美元变成了500美元，而是那个时期我养成的习惯一直支撑着我走到今天，而我根本不可能在35岁的时候突然改变这些习惯。

Like, it's not that the $100 turned into 500, it's that the habits I formed in that era brought me through today, and I could not have changed the habits when I turned 35.

事情根本不是这样运作的。

It just doesn't work like that.

因此，这就是为什么我对当年省下的那笔对我来说意义重大的钱，如今已增长为对我而言完全微不足道的金额，几乎没有遗憾的原因。

And so I that's what part of why I don't have a lot of regret for saving money that was a huge amount to me back then that has grown to a completely insignificant amount to me today.

正是我那时养成的习惯，才带来了所有不同。

It it was the habits that I formed back then that that made all the difference.

我觉得下次该你请客了。

I think you're paying for dinner next time.

我会的。

I'll do it.

没关系。

It's okay.

我觉得上次是你付的钱，所以我可能欠你。

I think you paid last time, so I probably owe you.

你非常富裕。

You're highly affluent.

关于如何用金钱教育孩子，你是怎么想的？比如，你会怎么做？

And how do you think about raising kids with money in terms of what are the like, what do you do?

你会避免做什么？

What do you try to avoid?

上周我和一个人聊过，他父母是第一代移民。

I had this conversation with someone last week, and he has first generation immigrant parents.

他的父母从其他国家搬到美国，拼命工作来养活他们的孩子，包括他本人。

His parents moved here from America, moved to America and worked their tails off to support their children, including this this guy.

现在他有个女儿，他说：摩根，我担心她被宠坏了，尤其是和他小时候的生活相比。

And now he has a daughter, and he said, Morgan, I worry that she's spoiled, certainly relative to the life that he had when he was a kid.

你知道，她这里有那里的，能买这些玩具什么的，她被宠坏了。

You know, she has this and she has that, and she can buy these toys and whatnot, and she's spoiled.

他说：我该怎么办呢？

And he said, what do I what do I do about that?

我说：我打赌，如果我们现在和你父母聊聊，他们会说这正是他们的目标。

And I said, I bet you if we were talking to your parents right now, they would say that was the goal.

他们的目标、他们搬到美国并拼命工作的原因，就是为了让他们的孙辈相比之下显得被宠坏了。

The goal the reason that they moved to America and worked their tails off is so that their grandchild would look spoiled by comparison.

所以，当我完全理解并也有这种冲动时，我不想宠坏我的孩子。

And so there's part of me when I completely understand, and I feel it as well, the urge to not spoil my kids.

我希望他们勤奋、独立，懂得金钱的价值。

I want them to be hardworking, independent, understand the value of a dollar.

当然，我希望如此。

Of course, I want that.

你也希望如此。

You want that.

我们都希望如此。

We all do.

我认为还有一点值得说的是，这一切的目标就是让未来的我、我的孩子、我的孙子孙女，乃至曾孙辈，生活在一个以今天标准来看显得富足的世界里。

I think there's also something to be said that the goal, the purpose of all of this is that so myself in the future and my kids and my grandkids and my grand grandkids will live in a world that by today's standards appear spoiled.

这不就是目标吗？

That's the goal, isn't it?

如果我们的曾孙辈过着和我们今天一模一样的生活，还得像我们一样辛苦工作、干同样的时长，那岂不是一种失败？

Like, wouldn't it be a failure if our great grandkids lived the exact same life that we do today and have to work just as hard and work the same hours?

那太糟糕了。

That sucks.

而且这一直如此。

And that's always that's always been true.

如果你看看今天的中产阶级普通美国人，不是那些极其富裕的人，而是中产阶级美国人，以1900年的标准来看，他们简直被宠坏了。

If you look at a middle class, ordinary American today, not not someone who's super affluent, middle class American, by the standards of 1900, let's say, they are spoiled rotten.

他们确实被宠坏了。

They are absolutely spoiled rotten.

如果十九世纪的人能乘坐时光机来到今天，他们会笑个不停，因为这个人被宠得如此厉害，而他的问题又如此微不足道。

And if the person in the nineteen hundreds had a time machine to come today, they wouldn't stop laughing at how spoiled this person was and how trivial their problems were.

但再说一遍，这正是重点。

And but, again, like, that's the point.

重点是我们随着时间推移有了创新和技术，生活变得越来越轻松。

The point is that we have innovation and technology over time so life becomes a little bit easier.

对那些过去经历更艰难的一代人来说，你所说的‘被宠坏’这个说法总是成立的。

It's always the case that to the previous generation that had it harder, it looks the the the phrase you use is spoiled.

但我认为真正发生的是进步。

But I think what's actually happening is progress.

所以现在我明白，你希望你的孩子懂得感恩。

And so but now I I understand that you want your kids to be grateful.

你希望他们勤奋努力，诸如此类。

You want them to be hard, you know, hardworking and whatnot.

但想想看，今天人们得了流感的反应，和一百五十年前的标准相比——那时候你有八个孩子，七个在五岁前死于传染病，或类似的情况。

But compare how people react when they get the flu today to how to the standards of a hundred and fifty years ago where it's like you had eight kids and seven of them died of infectious disease before their fifth birthday or whatever it was.

哦，真可怜。

Like, oh, boohoo.

你感冒了？

You got the flu?

你头疼了一天？

You got a headache for a day?

但我们并不是这样看待这些问题的。

But that's not how we think about it.

这确实很痛苦。

It it hurts.

代际进步总是会被当下的人视为堕落，即使这确实是真正的进步。

It's so it's always the case that the progress of a generation appears spoiled to one even if it's true progress that we have.

现在，我认为，作为一个普遍原则，我希望我的孩子们能...

Now I want my kids, I think, as a broad formula.

我想用我拥有的钱，在有限的范围内保护我的孩子免受他们自身劣势的伤害。

I wanna use the money that I have to protect within limitations my children's downsides.

我不希望他们一败涂地，再也爬不起来。

I don't ever want them to just collapse on their face and they can't work their way out in life.

我希望自己能充当一个某种程度上的安全网，但我不想成为他们的依赖源泉。

I wanna be there too as a somewhat of a safety net, but I don't wanna be a fuel.

我不只是想给他们钱，然后说：‘哎呀，你真幸运。’

I don't just wanna give them money and be like, oh, lucky you.

你父母挣了点钱。

You have your parents made a little bit of money.

我们现在就直接把钱给你。

We're just gonna give it to you now.

我认为这总体上不是正确的做法。

I think that's by and large not the right way to do it.

我觉得我父母无意中就是这样做的，虽然没有明说，但我18岁时就直觉地知道，如果我跌倒了，他们会在那里接住我，即使他们从未说出口。

And I think that's like and I think inadvertently my parents did this of it was unspoken, but I think I intuitively knew when I was 18 that if it fell on my face, they would be there to catch me, even if it was unspoken.

但我也很清楚，他们不会直接给我一张支票。

But I also knew clear as day that they were not just gonna write me a check.

这完全是不可能的。

Like, that was completely out of the question.

但正因如此，我认为自己能够带着更多的自信步入成年，因为我知道，嘿。

But because of that, I think I was able to enter adulthood with a little bit more confidence knowing that, like, hey.

我要冒险搬到这座新城市，做这件新事情。

I'm gonna take a risk and move to this new city and do this this new thing.

但如果失败了，我也不会无家可归。

But, like, if it doesn't work out, I'm I'm I'm not gonna be homeless.

这才是正确的做法。

That was that was that was a good way to do it.

因此，即使以今天的标准来看，孩子的生活方式看似奢侈，教导他们自立也能让他们变得自立。

And so teaching your kids to be self sufficient, even if their lifestyle appears spoiled by today's standards, they become self sufficient.

他们可以靠自己维持下去。

They can keep it going on their own.

他们今天的生活方式，是作为对比的参照点吗？

Is their lifestyle today is that the contrast point?

所以，他们在家中成长时所经历的任何生活状态，都会成为他们的参照基准。

So, like, whatever life they're living with you in the home growing up, that becomes their reference point.

对。

Right.

没错。

Exactly.

我和我妻子大约一两年前有过这样的经历，当时我们在考虑买一辆新车，其中有一个选项是一辆相当不错的车。

I you know, my wife and I had this experience like a year or two ago where we were thinking about buying a new car, one of which one of the options that we could buy was a pretty nice car.

我当时想，假设二十年后我们的两个孩子想当幼儿园老师。

And I had this thing of, like, let's say that our two kids twenty years from now wanna be kindergarten teachers.

因此，他们将来能负担得起的车可能只是本田思域之类的，更朴素的车。

And because of that, the car that they might be able to afford is a is a Honda Civic or whatever, you know, a a more much more modest car.

我是不是在某种程度上毁掉了他们的成年生活？因为我从小让他们以为父母开的是这种车，但长大后我们却得开这种车。

Have I ruined their adulthood to some degree because I set their expectations that in childhood, mom and dad drove this, but now as when I'm an adult, we gotta drive this.

我觉得这背后有一种很自然的本能：父母都希望孩子能比我们过得更好，不只是在经济上，而是在生活的许多方面。

And I think there's just such an inherent natural thing of, like, parents, I I I wanna raise kids who are gonna do better than than we did, not just financially, but in many aspects of life.

我认为孩子们也希望自己能实现代际的提升。

And I think the children want to have a generational growth pattern as well.

他们希望回望过去时能说：‘我小时候在这里，但现在作为成年人，我在这里了。’

They wanna look back and be like, man, I grew up here, but now as an adult, I'm here.

太棒了。

Like, amazing.

超越父母的感觉真好。

Feels great to surpass your parents.

这是第一代人开始觉得这种趋势可能不再成立了。

This is the first generation where they think that might not be the case.

我认为他们总体上对这一点的看法是错误的。

I think they're probably wrong about that in general.

当然，会有许多例子表明情况确实如此，但我认为他们往往——我觉得我可以打赌，他们的看法是错的。

Of course, there's gonna be lots of examples where that was the case, but I think they tend to I think I would bet that they would be wrong about that.

现在我认为，即使从统计和分析上看，我的孩子们未来的生活会比我们更好，尤其是在医疗等方面，但相比之下，他们并不会比我们更珍惜这些进步，因为我们对进步的感知被社交媒体稀释了。

Now I think it is true that even if statistically and analytically, my kids will be living a better life than than we are, particularly for things like medicine, I think by comparison, they won't they won't appreciate it in greater degrees than we didn't appreciate our progress because of social media.

是的。

Yeah.

因为他们所处的时代，不仅有一些人，而且 literally 数以千万甚至上亿人在 Instagram 上看起来比他们更富有、更快乐、更聪明、更成功。

Because they have only known an era when which not just there are some, but there are literally tens or hundreds of millions of people on Instagram who appear to be richer, happier, smarter, more successful than they are.

你仍然可以想象这样一个世界：即使五十年后你过着像沙特王子般的生活，网上仍有人做得更好。

You can still imagine a world in which even if you are living like a Saudi prince fifty years from now, someone online is doing it better.

因此，你坐在自己的黄金宫殿里，却感到自我怀疑。

And so you're sitting there in your gold palace, so to speak, feeling down about yourself.

因此，你很容易想象，由于社交媒体，期望值的增长率可能会变得呈指数级上升。

And so you can easily imagine a world in which the growth rate of expectations just becomes exponential because of social media.

是的。

Yeah.

这带来了许多负面后果。

There's so many negative byproducts to that.

我的意思是，过去我们的参照对象是街坊邻居。

I mean, I think, you know, it used to be our reference point was our street.

是的。

Yeah.

我们那个小社区里，也许乔买了辆新车

Our little community, and maybe Joe got a new car

或者新自行车什么的。

or New bike or something.

是的。

Yeah.

简家装了游泳池之类的东西，但现在你一打开Instagram。

Jane got a swimming pool kind of thing, and now you pop open Instagram.

乔有了一个高尔夫直播，简则拥有一辆布加迪之类的东西，或者简在照片拍摄中展现出一个笑容甜美、孩子可爱的幸福家庭，却看不到之前发生的尖叫和 tantrums。

Joe's got a golf stream, and and and Jane's got a Bugatti kind of thing, or Jane has a beautiful smiling family of cute kids in their photo session without seeing the screams and the tantrums that took place before it kind of thing.

每个人都对他人的生活有一种极度膨胀的错觉。

It's just everyone has a very inflated sense of other people.

我也会这么做。

And I do this too.

我在网上发布我孩子的可爱照片。

I post cute pictures of my kids online.

我不发布他们发脾气的场面。

I don't I don't post tantrums.

我不发布争吵的场景。

I don't post fights.

所以，可以说，每个人都在以一种天真的方式，但又非常真实地扮演着角色。

And so so it's like everyone is putting on an act, so to speak, in an innocent way, but in a very real way.

是的。

Yeah.

你正在掩饰生活中不同的部分。

You're camouflaging different parts of your life.

确实如此。

Absolutely.

不过，偶尔我会关注一些人，我觉得他们想展示自己不完美的一面。

Now, like, once in a while, some people I have I I do follow a couple people who are like, I think they wanna post their warts, so to speak.

他们想展示负面的一面。

They they wanna post the downside.

这让人耳目一新。

It's very refreshing.

人们喜欢那句老话：痛苦使人结伴。

People love, like, the the saying misery loves company.

人们喜欢听到你不是唯一在受苦的人，其他人也正经历着争吵、压力、焦虑和怀疑。

People love hearing that you're not the only one suffering, that other people are going through the fights, the stresses, the anxieties, the doubts that you are as well.

听到这些真的让人感到安慰。

Like, it's a very comforting thing to hear.

是的

Yeah.

我们之前聊过我做的那个史蒂文·巴特利特的采访，因为实在太差了就没播出来。

And we talked earlier about the Steven Bartlett interview I did that we didn't air because it was so bad.

是的

Yeah.

那是我的失败，而不是史蒂文的错。

And it was my failure and not Steve's.

我还公开发布了这件事。

And I posted that publicly.

是的

Yeah.

你真勇敢。

Brave of you.

我记得当时吓得要命。

And I remember just being petrified.

但我觉得，人们只看到成功的一面。

But I was like, people only see success.

人们看到的都是：书卖得好，播客表现不错，通讯稿也很成功，哦，谢恩一定很厉害。但我记得，那之后的几天对我来说特别艰难。

Like, so much of what people see is like, oh, the book's doing well, the podcast's doing well, the newsletter's doing well, like, oh, Shane must be man, I remember, like, that was a hard few days for me after that.

我记得你发帖的时候。

I remember when you posted that.

我记得当时想，真为你感到骄傲，兄弟。

I remember being like, good for you, man.

作为一个旁观者，我的反应并不是：‘哎呀，看看谢恩，这傻瓜。’

Like, the response that I had as an outsider watching that was not like, ugh, look at Shane, this clown.

他在台上跌倒了。

He's stumbled on stage.

那完全不是我的反应。

That's that was the the opposite.

我的反应是：真为你高兴，因为我也有过很多失败，知道我不是一个人在经历这些，真好。

The response I had is like, man, good for you because I've had a lot of failures, and good to know that I'm not alone in that.

在我职业生涯中写了4000篇博客文章，但对我而言最重要的一篇是2017年写的那篇。

Of of all the I wrote 4,000 blog posts over my career, and the one that meant the most to me by far was a post I wrote in 2017.

它叫《战胜你的心魔》，我在里面讲述了自己从小患有严重的口吃。

It's called Overcoming Your Demons, where I wrote about I grew up with a very severe stutter.

直到三十岁出头，我真正开始能够顺畅地说话。

I really struggled to speak until my, honestly, early thirties.

真的非常困难。

Really had a hard time.

如果你回看我的童年，我几乎说不出话来。

And if you go back to my childhood, I could I I could barely speak.

我想说一句话都非常艰难，口吃得很严重。

It was it was very difficult for me to get a sentence out, severe stutter.

我写了这段经历，以及我是如何克服它的，等等。

And and I wrote about that process and in part how I how I overcame it and whatnot.

我其实很犹豫要不要发布它，一方面是因为它看起来像在炫耀自己。

And I was really hesitant to post it, a, because I it felt like a a look at me post.

是的

Mhmm.

而且我觉得，尽管这并非我的本意，但它看起来像在博取同情。

And it felt like even though this wasn't the intention, it felt like a fishing for sympathy post.

但我认为我在文章中提到的一个观点是，每个人都有自己的心魔。

But I think one of the points that I made in the post was, like, everyone's got their demons.

是的

Mhmm.

而你通常并不知道这些。

And you usually don't know about it.

实际上，有很多人有口吃，但你通常不知道，因为大多数口吃者很少说话。

Actually, a lot of people stutter, but you usually don't know about it because most stutters just don't speak that much.

所以我敢保证，你有一个朋友或同事，你以为他们只是安静，其实他们并不是安静。

So I guarantee you, you have a friend or a coworker who you think is just quiet, and and that they're not quiet.

他们只是因为说话困难而不愿开口。

They just don't wanna speak because they struggle to speak.