多学科思维方法 | 彼得·D·考夫曼 [异类]

保持积极，率先行动，并坚持不懈。

Go positive and go first, and be constant in doing it.

这可能是过上你所能拥有的最好生活的最佳准则。

There may be no better formula for living the best life you could possibly live.

这是彼得·考夫曼的一句话，今天我们就来谈谈这个。

That's a quote from Peter Kaufman, and that's what we're gonna talk about today.

欢迎来到《知识项目》。

Welcome to the Knowledge Project.

我是你的主持人，肖恩·帕里什。

I'm your host, Shane Parrish.

这个播客致力于向他人学习，掌握他们已发现的最优秀经验，以便你能在生活中运用这些教训。

This podcast is all about learning from others, mastering the best of what they've figured out so you can use their lessons in your life.

彼得·考夫曼可能是你从未听说过的人，而这是有意为之。

Peter Kaufman is someone you probably never heard of, and that's by design.

他是格伦艾尔公司的董事长兼首席执行官，自1977年以来一直领导这家公司。

He's the chairman and CEO of Glenair, an aerospace company that he's led since 1977.

在这一任期中，他创造了商业史上最为出色的业绩之一。

Over that tenure, he's compiled one of the best track records in business history.

彼得还是《穷查理宝典》的编辑，这本书是查理·芒格智慧的权威合集。

Peter's also the editor of Poor Charlie's Almanac, the definitive collection of Charlie Munger's wisdom.

几十年来，他一直是查理最亲密的朋友之一。

He was one of Charlie's closest friends for decades.

彼得也是我的一位私人朋友。

Peter is also a personal friend.

在过去十年里，我从他身上学到的东西，比生命中几乎任何其他人都要多。

I've learned more from him in the past decade than nearly anyone else in my life.

尽管拥有如此多的智慧，彼得却很少公开发表演讲或接受采访。

Despite all of his wisdom, Peter rarely gives public talks or interviews.

他更喜欢这样。

He prefers it that way.

他最喜爱的格言之一是：浮出水面的鲸鱼会被捕鲸叉击中。

One of his favorite sayings is that the whale that surfaces gets harpooned.

2018年，他破例了一次。

In 2018, he made an exception.

他做了一场原本不被允许录音的演讲。

He gave a speech that was never supposed to be recorded.

但彼得认为，这个信息太过重要，不能私藏。

But Peter believed the message was too important to keep private.

正如他所说，这对任何希望过上充实、有意义且少有遗憾的人生的人来说都至关重要。

As he put it, it was critical for anyone interested in living a full, meaningful life with minimal regret.

因此，他允许将这场演讲转录成文字。

So he allowed that talk to be transcribed.

我非常庆幸他这么做了，因为那天他分享的内容可能是我所见过的最有价值的生活准则之一。

And I'm so glad he did because what he shared that day might be one of the most valuable frameworks for living I've ever encountered.

今天我们将讨论这场演讲中的部分教训，并大量引用彼得的思想和观点。

We're gonna talk about some of the lessons from that talk today using a lot of Peter's ideas and thinking.

完整的文字记录和音频已获得彼得的书面许可，在fs.blog上发布。

The complete transcript and audio are reproduced at fs.blog with the written permission of Peter.

你可以在本集的描述中找到链接，或者直接搜索‘多学科思维方法’。

So you can find a link in the description for this episode or just Google the multidisciplinary approach to thinking.

让我们开始吧。

Let's dive in.

彼得在演讲开头提出了一个问题：为什么多学科思维很重要。

Peter opens his talk by asking why multidisciplinary thinking is important.

答案来自奥地利哲学家路德维希·维特根斯坦，他说：理解就是知道该怎么做。

The answer comes from the Austrian philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein who said to understand is to know what to do.

这真是一个绝妙的表述。

What a great way of putting it.

当你真正理解某件事时，就不会犯错。

When you truly understand something, you don't make mistakes.

不妨这样想。

Think about it this way.

错误源于认知盲区。

Mistakes come from blind spots.

它们源于理解的缺失。

They come from a lack of understanding.

因此，我们理解得越多，犯的错误就越少。

So the more we understand, the fewer mistakes we will make.

这就是彼得认为多学科思维至关重要的原因，因为我们能获得更全面的理解。

This is why Peter believes multidisciplinary thinking is critical because we understand more.

世界并不会按照整齐的学术学科来组织自己。

The world doesn't organize itself into neat academic departments.

问题并不会带着经济学、心理学或生物学这样的标签出现。

Problems don't come with labels like economics or psychology or biology.

它们是无标签且相互关联的。

They come unlabeled and interconnected.

它们通常非常混乱。

They're usually super messy.

比如，2008年的金融危机其实并不是一个单纯的金融问题。

The financial crisis of two thousand and eight, for example, wasn't really a financial problem.

这其实是一个心理学问题，一个被复杂性问题包裹着的激励问题。

It was a psychology problem, an incentives problem wrapped in a complexity problem.

这些专家们无法看清真相，因为他们只能通过单一的视角来看待世界。

The range of specialists couldn't see it because they could only see the world through one lens.

彼得用一句日本谚语来说明这种专业化的危险：井底之蛙，不知大海之广阔。

Peter illustrates the danger of such specialization with a Japanese proverb, the frog in the well knows nothing of the mighty ocean.

我们在当今世界中经常看到这种情况。

We see this constantly in our world today.

一位出色的工程师设计出一个复杂的产品，却没人想要，因为他不理解人类行为。

A brilliant engineer builds a complex product nobody wants because they don't understand human behavior.

一位有才华的市场营销人员毁掉了品牌，因为她不了解其历史或与客户的关系。

A talented marketer destroys a brand because she doesn't understand its history or its relationship with customers.

一位精明的投资者因破产而失败，因为他懂报表，却不了解自己的认知偏见。

A skilled investor blows up because he understands spreadsheets but not his own cognitive biases.

每个人都在某一领域是专家，但在生活的复杂系统中却举步维艰。

Each one is a master in one area but struggles in the complex systems of life.

他们只了解井底，不了解海洋。

They know the well, not the ocean.

因此，彼得倡导学习各个学科中的核心思想。

So Peter advocates for learning the big ideas from all the different disciplines.

理解这些核心思想的人更有可能发现专家们忽略的联系。

The person who understands the big ideas is more likely to see the connections that the specialists miss.

他们能察觉到任何单一部门模型中都看不到的风险。

They spot risks that don't show up in any single department's models.

他们能注意到某种在理论上行得通的东西即将在实践中失败。

They notice when something that works is theory is about to fail in practice.

但彼得承认，这个问题是实际存在的。

But Peter admits the problem is practical.

学科实在太多了。

There's just too many fields.

书籍数量太多、太厚，你没有时间像查理·芒格在99岁时那样掌握一切。

The books are too numerous and too thick, and you don't have time to master everything the way Charlie Munger did in his 99.

于是，彼得找到了一个捷径。

So Peter found a shortcut.

想象一位中年男子走进南加州的一家咖啡馆。

Picture a middle aged man walking into a coffee shop in Southern California.

那是清晨，还没到早高峰。

It's early before the morning rush.

他带着一个装满纸张的活页夹，有好几百页。

He's carrying a binder full of papers, several 100 pages.

他点了平时常喝的饮品，找到靠窗的座位，打开活页夹开始阅读。

He orders his usual, finds his seat by the window, and opens the binder and begins to read.

他这样每天早上都做，持续了六个月。

And he does this every morning for six months.

彼得发现《发现》杂志在线存档了十二年的内容。

Peter had discovered that Discover Magazine had twelve years of archives posted online.

每个月，他们都会采访某个科学领域的专家，并为普通读者发表一篇六到七页的文章。

And every single month, they interviewed an expert from some domain of science and published a six or seven page article for a general audience.

这些并不是简化版的摘要。

These weren't dumbed down summaries.

它们是各自领域的专家，精英中的精英，全力以赴，用最生动的故事和最清晰的语言传达他们工作中最重要的思想。

They were the experts of their field, the cream of the crop, bringing their a game, using their best stories and their clearest language to communicate the most important ideas in their work.

于是彼得把它们全部打印了出来。

So Peter printed all of them.

然后他以他所说的‘指数基金式’方式阅读它们，意思是，他全部读完了。

Then he read them in what he calls index fund style, which means he read them all.

他没有挑选，而是日复一日，连续六个月，一篇接一篇地读。

He didn't pick and choose, just one after another, every single day for six straight months.

这就是整个宇宙，”他说，“我要拥有整个宇宙。

This is the universe, he said, and I'm going to own the whole universe.

如果任由自己的喜好，他承认，他可能只会读其中几篇。

And if he had been left to his own preferences, he admits, he probably only would have read a few of them.

有几篇会引起他的兴趣。

A few would have piqued his interest.

他绝不会主动去读六页关于纳米颗粒的内容。

He never would have voluntarily read six pages on nanoparticles.

但当他完成阅读后，正是在这些内容中，他找到了一些最好的想法。

But after he had completed his reading, that's exactly where he found some of his best ideas.

在那六个月里，跨足不熟悉领域的阅读中，彼得开始在每一篇看似无关的文章中发现某种共性。

Over those six months reading across unfamiliar domains, Peter started to recognize something in each seemingly unrelated article.

这正是生物学中运作的方式。

That's exactly how it works over here in biology.

这正是人类本性中运作的方式。

That's exactly how this works over here in human nature.

这些发现类文章如今很难找到。

These discovery articles are super hard to find today.

这正是我创建《伟大的思维模型》系列的原因之一，旨在帮助人们学习和应用来自物理、化学、数学、经济学等领域的核心思想。

And this is one of the reasons that I actually created the Great Mental Model series was to help people learn and apply the big ideas from physics, chemistry, math, economics, and more.

你必须掌握所有这些，因为如果你只挑拣着读，就会错过那些无人察觉的指数级洞见。

And you have to know them all because if you pick and choose, you're going to miss the parabolic ideas that nobody sees.

广泛阅读让他发现，最重要的思想往往隐藏在别人忽视的冷门领域中。

Reading broadly showed him the biggest ideas were hiding in arcane places nobody else was looking.

这就是为什么指数型阅读优于选择性阅读，因为它能让你捕捉到大多数人错过的资讯。

It's why index fund reading beats selective reading because it allows you to capture the information that most people miss.

但跨学科思维也带来了一个新问题。

But being multidisciplinary created a new problem.

你如何知道哪些观点才是真正正确的？

How do you know which ideas are actually true?

彼得想出了一个巧妙的解决方案，这个方案借鉴了统计学方法。

And Peter came up with a clever solution to this problem that drew on statistics.

正如他所说，统计学家最好的朋友是足够大且相关的样本量。

As he put it, a statistician's best friend is a large relevant sample size.

为什么呢？

And why?

因为从足够大且相关的样本量中得出的原理不可能是错的。

Because a principle derived from a large relevant sample size can't be wrong.

它出错的唯一可能是样本量太小，或者样本本身不相关。

The only way it could be wrong is if the sample size is too small or the sample itself is not relevant.

因此，彼得用他所谓的三个类别来检验每一个重要想法。

So Peter tested every important idea against what he calls his three buckets.

这三个他能想到的最大且相关的样本量。

The three largest relevant sample sizes he could think of.

第一个类别是137亿年的无机宇宙。

Bucket number one was 13,700,000,000 of the inorganic universe.

这包括物理学、地质学、化学，所有非生命的事物。

This is physics, geology, chemistry, everything that isn't alive.

这是现存最大的样本量。

And this was the largest sample size in existence.

第二个类别是地球上35亿年的生物演化史。

And bucket number two is 3,500,000,000 of biology on Earth.

作为生物体，这与我们直接相关。

As a biological creature, this is directly relevant to us.

第三个桶是大约两万年来的人类有记录的历史。

And bucket number three is sort of the twenty thousand years or so of recorded human history.

这是所有三个桶中最相关的。

This is the most relevant of all.

这是我们的故事、我们的物种、我们的本性。

It's our stories, our species, our nature.

当一个原则在所有三个桶中都一致出现，当它在物理学、生物学和整个人类历史中都成立时，你就可以完全信任它。

When a principle shows up consistently across all three buckets, when it's true in physics and true in biology and true throughout human history, you can trust it completely.

正如彼得所说，你会看到这些事物像老虎机上的三条横线一样对齐，哇，你中了头奖。

As Peter says, you see these things lined up like three bars on a slot machine and boy do you hit the jackpot.

彼得用一个雄心勃勃的问题来测试他的新框架。

Peter tested his new framework with an ambitious question.

是否存在一个简单的两个词的描述，能够准确地说明世界上一切事物的运作方式？

Is there a simple two word description that accurately describes how everything in the world works?

彼得说，是的。

And Peter says yes.

他通过在自己的三个类别中进行验证来证明这一点。

And he proves it by checking it across all three of his buckets.

让我们从物理学开始。

So let's start with physics.

牛顿第三定律指出，每一个作用力都有一个大小相等、方向相反的反作用力。

Newton's third law states that for every action, there's an equal and opposite reaction.

如果你向下推桌子，桌子也会以相等的力向上推你。

If you push down on a table, the table pushes back with equal force.

如果你用两倍的力推，桌子也会以两倍的力回推。

If you push twice as hard, the table will push back twice as hard.

这一点已经持续了数十亿年。

This has been true for billions of years.

那么模式是什么？

So what's the pattern?

互惠。

Reciprocation.

但不仅仅是任何一种互惠，而是完美对称的互惠。

But not just any reciprocation, perfectly mirrored reciprocation.

现在我们转向生物学。

Now we turn to biology.

彼得引用了马克·吐温的观察：一个抓猫尾巴的人，会学到一种别无他法能获得的教训。

And Peter references Mark Twain's observation that a man who picks up a cat by its tail will learn a lesson that he can learn in no other way.

我不建议你真的这么做。

And I don't recommend doing this.

请只在脑海中想象一下这个场景。

Please just imagine it in your head.

但如果你抓猫的尾巴，它肯定会抓你。

But if you pick up a cat by its tail, it will undeniably scratch you.

如果你对猫态度恶劣，就会得到恶劣的回报。

If you treat the cat disagreeably, you get disagreeable back.

但如果你轻轻抱起同一只猫，抚摸它、逗它，它很快就会开始舔你的手。

But if you were to gently pick up that same cat, stroke it, pet it, it will start licking your hand soon after.

友善待人，人亦友善。

Agreeable in is agreeable out.

那么，这究竟是什么？

So what is this?

这就是镜像互惠的体现。

This is mirrored reciprocation in action.

接下来，我们可以转向第三个类别。

And next, we can turn to the third bucket.

彼得指出，你一生中与每一个生物的每一次互动，都只是镜像互惠。

And Peter observes that your entire life, every interaction you've ever had with another being is merely mirrored reciprocation.

我知道你可能在想，这不可能这么简单。

And I know you're probably thinking, it can't be this simple.

彼得某种程度上预见到这种质疑。

And Peter sort of anticipates this objection.

所以他告诉观众：这确实就这么简单。

So he tells the audience, it is this simple.

这并不意味着它不复杂。

It doesn't mean it's not sophisticated.

我们刚刚得出的这个模型非常复杂，对吧？

This is a very sophisticated model we just arrived, isn't it?

我们研究了现存的三个最大样本量，这三个最相关的样本，它们都得出了完全相同的结论。

We looked into the three largest sample sizes that exist, the three most relevant, and they all said exactly the same thing.

你觉得我们可以依赖这一点吗？

Do you think we can bank on that?

当然，我们可以百分之百地依赖这一点。

Well, a 100% we can bank on that.

简单并不意味着肤浅。

Simple does not mean simplistic.

一个在一百三十七亿年证据中得到验证的原则，是我们所能获得的最可靠的知識。

A principle verified across thirteen point seven billion years of evidence is as solid as knowledge as we can get.

彼得用他所谓的电梯例子来说明镜像互惠。

And Peter uses what he calls the elevator example to illustrate mirrored reciprocation.

所以你站在电梯前面，门开了，一个你从未见过的陌生人走了进来。

So you're standing in the front of an elevator, the door opens, and inside walks a stranger you've never met.

于是你走了进去。

So you step in.

在那一刻，你有三种选择。

You have three choices in that moment.

第一种选择是微笑并说早上好。

Choice number one is you can smile and say good morning.

彼得声称，在加利福尼亚，98%的情况下，陌生人会微笑着回一句早上好。

Peter claims that in California, 98% of the time a stranger will smile and say good morning right back.

第二种选择是你无端地对陌生人皱眉并嘶嘶出声。

Choice number two is you can scowl and hiss at the stranger for no reason.

而98%的情况下，陌生人也会皱眉并嘶嘶地回敬你。

And 98% of the time, the stranger will scowl and hiss back at you.

第三种选择是什么也不做。

And choice three is you do nothing.

而这就是大多数人做出的选择。

And this is the choice that most people make.

而你几乎总是得不到任何回应。

And you almost always get nothing back.

你付出什么，就会得到什么。

Whatever you put out, you get back.

但关键在于，你必须先迈出第一步。

But, and this is the crucial insight, you have to go first.

彼得将这一点与他随处可见的模式联系起来。

Peter connects this to a pattern he sees everywhere.

这就是为什么凌晨两点这些酒吧里挤满了借酒消愁的人。

This is why these bars are full of people at 2AM drowning their sorrows.

他们一杯接一杯地喝酒。

They're knocking down these drinks.

这个世界什么时候才能给我点什么啊，老兄？

When's the world gonna give me something, man?

我什么时候才能得到我的那份？

When am I gonna get mine?

那你做过什么？

Well, what did you ever do?

你早上起来对世界微笑过吗？

Did you get up in the morning and smile at the world?

没有。

No.

你要么什么都没做，要么对世界皱眉、嘶吼，而你得到的正是你如果理解了世界真实运作方式后所预期的结果。

You either did nothing or you scowled and hissed at the world, and you're getting back exactly what you would expect to get back if you understood how the world really works.

那为什么更多人不先积极起来呢？

So why don't more people go positive first?

丹尼尔·卡尼曼本人回答了这个问题，而这正是他获得诺贝尔奖的原因。

Daniel Kahneman himself answered this, and it's what won him the Nobel Prize.

人类大脑对潜在损失的重视程度远超过对等的收益。

The human brain weighs potential losses far more heavily than they do equivalent gains.

我们宁愿放弃98%的收益，只为避免2%被拒绝或尴尬的可能性。

We'll sacrifice 98% upside to avoid a 2% chance of rejection or embarrassment.

彼得还引用了棒球传奇人物卢·布洛克的话。

Peter also quotes baseball legend, Lou Brock.

给我看一个害怕显得愚蠢的人，我就给你看一个每次都会被打败的人。

Show me a man who's afraid of appearing foolish and I'll show you a man who can be beat every time.

或者，你可以用我看待这个问题的方式去思考。

Or you can think about this the same way that I do.

生活中如此多的优势，都来自于愿意在短期内看起来像个傻瓜，愿意承受不适。

So much advantage in life comes from being willing to look like an idiot in the short term, willing to be uncomfortable.

我的朋友哈雷·芬克尔斯坦对此也有一个很好的说法。

My friend, Harley Finkelstein has a great way of framing this too.

他称之为‘尴尬容忍度’，而这是大多数人无法跨越的障碍。

He calls it cringe tolerance, and it's something most people can't get over.

如果你能克服那种短暂的、害怕看起来像傻瓜的恐惧，以及那种不适感，你就能成就非凡之事。

If you can get over the momentary fear of looking like an idiot, the uncomfortableness of that, then you can accomplish amazing things.

例如，我会给许多我想邀请上节目、向他们学习的人发送冷邮件和短信，这种方法很有效。

For example, I send a lot of cold emails and text messages to anyone I'm interested in having on the show and learning from, and it works.

当然，我经常被拒绝，但我从一开始就预料到了这一点。

And sure, I get rejected a lot, but I expect that going in.

而我建立的那些绝佳联系，远超过那些不回复的人带来的损失。

And the amazing connections I develop are more than worth the few who don't reply.

彼得还用他的三类框架来检验另一个问题。

And Peter tests another question against his three buckets theory.

世界上我们能利用的最强大动力是什么？

What is the most powerful force in the world that we can harness?

在无机宇宙中，他引用爱因斯坦的话，称复利是宇宙中最强大的力量，是人类最伟大的数学发现，也是世界第八大奇迹。

In the inorganic universe, he cites Einstein calling compound interest the most powerful force in the universe, the greatest mathematical discovery of all time, and the eighth wonder of the world.

爱因斯坦观察到，理解复利的人会从中获益，而不理解的人则会为此付出代价。

And Einstein observes that those who understand compound interest get paid by it and those who don't pay for it.

彼得对复利的定义是：在长时间内坚持不懈、持续不断地微小进步。

Peter's working definition of compound interest is dogged incremental constant progress over a long period of time.

所以检查第二个类别。

So check bucket two.

那生物学呢？

What about biology?

在三十五亿年的生命历程中，最强大的力量是什么？

Well, what's the most powerful force in the three point five billion years of life?

进化。

Evolution.

它是如何运作的？

And how does it work?

坚持不懈、逐步、持续的进步，跨越很长的时间段。

Gogged, incremental, constant progress over a very long time frame.

那人类的成就呢？

And what about human achievement?

那就是获胜。

Well, have winning.

我们有奥运金牌。

We have Olympic gold medals.

我们有掌握一门乐器、学习一门语言，以及建立伯克希尔哈撒韦公司。

We have mastering an instrument, learning a language, and building Berkshire Hathaway.

秘诀是什么？

What's the formula?

就是完全相同的那个秘诀。

It's the exact same one.

持续、渐进、长期的稳定进步。

Doggin, incremental, constant progress over a long period of time.

三个桶，答案相同。

Three buckets, same answer.

这就是 jackpot，复利的力量。

This is jackpot, compound interest.

如果复利如此强大，为什么不是每个人都能利用它？

If compounding is such a powerful force, why doesn't everyone harness it?

彼得说，这是因为人类讨厌持续不变。

And Peter says it's because humans hate being constant.

他描绘的画面非常生动：就像西西弗斯推着巨石上山，你推到一半就想着，我改天再来做吧。

The picture he paints is very vivid, where the functional equivalent of Sisyphus pushing his boulder up the mountain, you push it halfway and you go, I'll come back and do this another time.

于是巨石又滚回山下。

And so the boulder rolls back down.

我有个绝妙的主意。

I've got this great idea.

我会全力以赴地去做，然后你把它推到半山腰。

I'm going to really work hard on it and you'll push it halfway up.

然后呢，我下个月再回来继续。

And, you know, I'll get back to this next month.

这就是人类的本性。

That is the human condition.

这非常有趣。

And this is very interesting.

每一次对持续进步的打断都会破坏复利效应。

Every interruption to constant progress breaks compounding.

你会从卓越的曲线上跌落，转而进入线性轨道，更糟的是，你开始倒退。

You fall off the exceptional curve and onto a linear one, or worse, you start sliding backwards.

当彼得被问及有多少人真正能做到持续时，他根据自己的经验提到了两个人：沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格。

And when Peter asked how many people are truly constant, he names two from his own experience, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.

我在这里引用他的话。

I'm quoting him here.

他说：每个人都想变得像沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格那样富有，而我告诉你们他们是如何变得富有的。

He says, everybody wants to be rich like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, And I'm telling you how they got rich.

他们始终如一。

They were constant.

他们从不时断时续。

They were not intermittent.

我喜欢这句话。

I love that line.

他们不是断断续续的。

They were not intermittent.

我现在用它来审视自己的生活，问自己：我在哪些方面是断断续续的，而不是持续不断的？

I use it as a lens on my own life now asking myself, where am I being intermittent and not constant?

那些无法坚持的锻炼计划，每年一月写满日记本、到二月就戛然而止的记日记习惯，你本打算开始或终于要读完的那本书，你发誓要在旅行前学会并提高的那门语言。

The workout routine that doesn't stick, the journaling habit that fills pages in January every year and goes silent by February, the book you were definitely going to start or finally finish, the language that you were absolutely going to learn and get better at before your trip.

每一个这样的事情，都像一块半山腰的巨石，你却转身离开了。

Each one of those is like a boulder partway up the hill that you walk away from.

然后会发生什么？

And then what happens?

令人惭愧的是，我们都知道这个道理。

Well, what's humbling is that we know the mouth.

我们理解复利。

We understand compounding.

我们能向别人解释它，但知道并不是最难的部分。

We can explain it to others, but knowing isn't the hard part.

保持持续才是困难的部分。

Being constant is the hard part.

这句话令人难忘，因为它提到了成功。

The line is haunting because it references success.

这与强度无关。

It's not about intensity.

这与那一次巨大的努力、英雄般的付出、通宵达旦无关。

It's not about that big push, that heroic effort, that all nighter.

这关乎你昨天、前天、再前天所做的事。

It's about the thing you did yesterday and the day before and the day before that.

这完全关乎你明天和后天会做什么，大多数时候没有掌声，也没有喝彩。

It's all about what you'll do tomorrow and the day after that, mostly with no fanfare and no applause.

大多数时候，你都将独自完成。

You'll be doing it alone most of the time.

这是关键的教训。

Here's the key lesson.

强度被高估了，而一致性却被低估了。

Intensity is overrated and consistency is underrated.

彼得还认为，所有人类在他们真正想要的东西上本质上是相同的。

Peter also believes that all humans are fundamentally identical in what they want.

他问观众：有多少人希望得到关注、被倾听、被尊重？

He asked his audience how many of you wanna be paid attention to, listened to, respected?

有多少人希望获得意义、满足感和成就感，感受到自己的重要性？

How many want meaning, satisfaction, and fulfillment, the sense that you matter?

有多少人希望被爱？每一个人都举起了手。

How many want to be loved, and every single hand goes up.

彼得观察到，每个人本质上都是一样的。

Everybody's exactly the same, Peter observed.

唯一的区别在于他们为满足这些需求所采用的策略。

The only difference is the strategy that they're employing to try to get to fulfill those needs.

他用他所说的狗所使用的策略来说明这一点。

He illustrates this with what he calls the strategy that dogs use.

在彼得的说法中，你的狗跑到围栏边，对邻居家的狗说：你能相信吗？操纵人类、让他们为你做任何事竟然这么容易。

In Peter's telling, your dog goes to the fence and tells the neighbor's dog, can you believe how easy it is to manipulate human beings and get them to do whatever you want them to do for you?

邻居家的狗表示同意。

And the neighboring dog agrees.

这简直轻而易举。

I know it's a piece of cake.

秘诀就在于。

The secret.

你只需要在他们每次回家时，用他们一生中从未体验过的、最热烈无条件的关注来迎接他们。

All you have to do is every single time they come home, you greet them at the door with the biggest unconditional show of attention that they've ever gotten in their whole life.

你只需要持续大约十五秒，然后就可以继续做你之前的事，整晚都完全忽略他们。

And you only have to do it for about fifteen seconds and then you can go back to doing whatever you were doing before and completely ignore them for the rest of the evening.

但你必须在他们每次回家时都这么做。

However, you have to do this every single time they come home.

结果就是，人类会为这只狗做任何事情。

And the result, the human will do anything for that dog.

它会喂它。

It will feed it.

它会带它散步。

It will walk it.

它会完全照顾它，而这一切只需要十五秒真诚的关注。

It will care for it completely, All for fifteen seconds of genuine attention.

彼得在这里的教训是，如果你想从别人那里得到生活中的一切，首先就要给予关注、倾听他们、尊重他们，赋予他们意义、满足感和成就感。

Peter's lesson here is all you have to do if you want everything in life from everybody else is first pay attention, listen to them, show them respect, give them meaning, satisfaction, and fulfillment.

让他们知道他们在你心中很重要，向他们展示你爱他们，但你必须先行动。

Convey to them that they matter to you and show you love them, but you have to go first.

那你又能得到什么回报呢？

And what are you gonna get back?

你得到的只是单纯的回报。

You're gonna get back mere reciprocation.

我们做过一期关于这个的节目，玛丽·凯·艾什有一个令人惊叹的视角，我现在时常会想到。

We did an episode on this where Mary Kay Ash had this amazing framing that I think about all the time now.

她说，每个人脖子上都挂着一块看不见的牌子，上面写着：让我感到重要。

And she said, everyone has an invisible sign hanging from his or her neck saying, make me feel important.

当你与人打交道时，永远不要忘记这个信息。

Never forget this message when you're working with people.

彼得用一个从亚马逊购买的8美元水晶球为观众做了一个演示。

Peter did a demonstration for his audience using an $8 crystal ball from Amazon.

亚马逊。

Amazon.

他主动提出为现场的任何人——一个完全陌生的人——进行一次通灵解读，告诉他们一生中一直在寻找的东西。

He offers to do a psychic reading for anyone in the room, a complete stranger, and tell them what they've been searching for for their entire life.

他的解读如下。

And his reading goes like this.

你的一生都在追寻一场旅程、一次探索，寻找那个你可以100%绝对完全信任的人。

Your entire life, you've been on a quest, an odyssey, a search for that individual you can 100% absolutely and completely trust.

但这个人不仅值得信赖，还要有原则、勇敢、有能力、善良、忠诚、善解人意、宽容且无私。

But who's not just trustworthy, but principled and courageous and competent and kind and loyal and understanding and forgiving and unselfish.

当然，他每次都说对了，因为这正是我们每个人都在寻找的。

And of course, he's right every time because that's what every single one of us is looking for.

于是，彼得又做出了第二个预测。

So Peter adds a second prediction.

如果你觉得自己可能遇到过这样的人，你会不断试探、反复验证，确保他们是真的，而不是被欺骗了。

If you ever think you may have encountered this person, you're going to probe and probe and test and test to make sure they are real, that you're not being fooled.

而这个悖论在于，你看似在寻找弱点，但实际上并不是。

And the paradox is that it looks like you're probing for weakness, but you're not.

你是在寻找力量。

You're probing for strength.

你人生中最糟糕的一天，就是当你发现的不是力量，而是软弱。

And the worst day of your life is if instead of strength, you get back weakness.

这时，你会感到被背叛。

And now you feel betrayed.

你必须重新开始你的寻找。

You've gotta start your search all over again.

这引出了彼得所谓的领导力二十二秒课程。

This brings Peter to what he calls the twenty two second course in leadership.

不需要商学院，不需要书籍，也不需要研讨会。

There's no business school required, no books, no seminars.

整个课程就是：拿出我们一直在寻找的那些品质清单。

The entire course, Take that list of things that we are searching for.

值得信赖、有原则、勇敢、有能力、忠诚、善良、善解人意、宽容且无私的人。

Person who is trustworthy, principled, courageous, competent, loyal, kind, understanding, forgiving, and unselfish.

把这份清单牢记于心，在你未来每一次与他人的互动中，都成为这份清单的化身。

Take that list and in every single one of your future interactions with others, be that list.

在你遇到的每个人身边挂上一块无形的牌子，上面写着‘让我感到重要’，以此提醒自己，率先全心全意地对待他人，他们也会全心全意地回应你。

Hang that invisible sign that says make me feel important around everyone you meet as a reminder and go all in first with somebody and they will go all in with you too.

不是因为你操纵了他们，而是因为你成为了他们一生都在寻找的那种人。

Not because you manipulated them into it because you became what they're searching for their whole lives.

正如彼得所说，大多数人整天都在努力让别人喜欢自己。

As Peter put it, most people spend all day long trying to get other people to like them.

他们做错了。

They do it wrong.

只要你做到这一条，人们就会纷至沓来。

You do this list, you won't be able to keep the people away.

每个人都想靠近你。

Everyone's going to want to attach to you.

彼得接下来谈到的另一个重要观点，是商业中最大的盲点。

The next big idea Peter talks about is the biggest blind spot in business.

那些为自己的胜利而骄傲的人，会失去人际关系。

People who are proud of their win lose relationships.

我们到处都能看到这种情况，高管们沾沾自喜地炫耀如何压垮供应商，或强迫员工签订不利合同。

We see this everywhere where executives sort of brag about crushing suppliers or locking employees into unfavorable contracts.

彼得用博弈论来阐述这一点。

Peter frames this through game theory.

你把博弈论中的任何情境，都加上‘输’这个字。

You take game theory and you insert the word lose in any scenario in game theory.

那你有什么呢？

And what do you have?

一个次优的结果。

A suboptimal outcome.

当你在博弈论情境中加入“双赢”会怎样？

What happens when you insert win win in game theory scenario?

你会得到什么？

What do you get?

你每次都会得到最优的结果。

You get the optimal outcome every time.

实现双赢需要理解彼得所说的临床心理学的基本公理。

Achieving win win requires understanding what Peter calls the basic axiom of clinical psychology.

如果你能以我看待世界的方式来看世界，你就会明白我为什么这样行事。

If you could see the world the way that I see it, you'd understand why I behave the way that I do.

因此，这引出了两件事。

And so two things follow from this.

首先，要理解某人的行为，你必须以他们的视角来看待世界。

First, to understand someone's behavior, you must see the world as they see it.

其次，要改变他们的行为，你必须改变他们看待世界的方式。

Second, to change their behavior, you must change how they see the world.

彼得举了一个商业例子。

Peter gives a business example.

大多数员工看待世界的方式是作为员工。

Most employees see the world as employees.

但如果你能将他们的视角转变为所有者的视角呢？

But what if you could shift their perspective to that of an owner?

你认为这会改变他们的行为吗？

Do you think that's going to change how they behave?

这完全改变了他们的行为方式。

It totally changes how they behave.

员工并不关心浪费。

Employees don't care about waste.

所有者在意浪费。

Owners care about waste.

员工不会自我监督我们的场所。

Employees don't self police our place.

所有者会。

Owners do.

但如果你想了解这个例子的案例研究，可以听听《异类》节目中关于莱斯·施瓦布的那一集。

But if you wanna listen to a case study on this example, check out the Outliers episode with Les Schwab.

他通过将员工当作所有者来对待，建立了一个价值数十亿美元的轮胎销售业务。

He built a multi billion dollar business selling tires by treating his employees like owners.

他的企业之所以能超越所有竞争对手，仅仅是因为他的员工更加在意。

His businesses out competed every competitor simply because his employees cared more.

彼得有一个确保你没有任何盲点的公式。

Peter has a formula for ensuring you have zero blind spots.

他说，领导力的秘诀在于从六个重要利益相关方的视角看问题，并确保你所做的一切都以与他们实现双赢的方式构建。

He says, the secret to leadership is to see through the eyes of all six important counterparty groups and make sure that everything you do is structured in such a way to be win win with them.

所以这六个群体是：你的客户、供应商、员工、所有者、监管机构以及你所运营的社区。

So here are the six, your customers, your suppliers, your employees, your owners, your regulators, and the communities you operate in.

当我回顾过去一年我们所介绍的一些《异类》案例时，我发现这些企业几乎都与所有这些利益相关方建立了双赢关系。

When I look back at some of the outliers episodes we've covered over the past year, I see repeatedly that the businesses they built almost uniformly had win win relationships with all of these counterparties.

而当他们出现失误时，企业往往会陷入困境，这几乎总是因为他们忽视了其中某一个关系。

And when they misstepped, their businesses stumbled, it's almost always because they renamed on one of these relationships.

因此，彼得认为，如果你掌握了这六点，你还会剩下多少盲点呢？

So if you master these, Peter argues, how many blind spots are you gonna have?

零。

Zero.

你会犯多少错误？

How many mistakes are you going to make?

零。

Zero.

彼得接下来的观点是关于简洁性。

The next point Peter makes is about simplicity.

大多数人认为复杂性是精致的标志。

Most people assume complexity is a signal for sophistication.

彼得认为，阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦持不同意见。

And Peter argues that Albert Einstein disagreed.

根据彼得的说法，爱因斯坦列出了五个层次的认知能力。

According to Peter, Einstein listed five ascending orders of cognitive prowess.

最低层次是聪明，其次是智慧。

At the bottom, the lowest level was smart, and then came intelligent.

那是第二低的层次。

That was the second lowest level.

然后是卓越，再往上是天才。

And then you had brilliant, and then genius.

然而，在天才之上还有一个层次，那就是简单。

However, there's one level above genius, and that's simple.

为什么简单胜过天才？

Why does simple beat genius?