未来十年最需要掌握的技能

未来属于那些明白人工智能需要指引、工具需要主人、数据需要洞察、内容需要语境、成功需要远见的人。

The future belongs to those who understand that AI needs direction, tools need masters, data needs insight, content needs context, success needs vision.

思维是一个故事引擎，那些学会掌控它的人将蓬勃发展。

The mind is a story engine, and those who learn to control it will thrive.

大多数技能在十年到二十年内都将变得无关紧要。

Most skills will be irrelevant in ten to twenty years.

除非你彻底改变对成功的理解方式。

That is unless you completely change how you think about success.

因为如果你是一个高能动性的人，这并不重要。

Because if you're a high agency individual, that doesn't matter.

为什么？

Why?

因为你并不依赖某项特定技能来获得成功。

Because you aren't dependent on a specific skill for your success.

因为你不是专家。

Because you aren't a specialist.

你没有集中注意力，导致你无法超越对高薪工作或学位的关注去学习其他东西。

You didn't focus your mind, preventing you from learning outside of that focus, on the status of a high paying job or degree.

你拥有远见，并且明白在当今世界，你可以学习任何实现目标所需的技能或获取任何必要的知识。

You have a vision and you understand that in today's world, you can learn any skill or acquire any knowledge that is needed to achieve it.

现在，不幸的是，如果你的父母自己没有培养出主动性这一能力，他们很可能也没有将它传递给你。

Now, unfortunately, if your parents did not cultivate the skill of agency in themselves, they probably didn't pass it off to you.

除非你已经刻意且艰难地经历了重新学习的过程，否则在你感到能掌控自己的未来之前，还有许多工作要做。

And unless you have deliberately and painfully gone through the process of relearning, you have some work to do before you feel in control of your future.

话虽如此，现在、十年后，直到你去世，最重要的技能都是主动性。

Now with that said, the most important skill to learn that will be relevant now, in ten years, and until you die is agency.

因为如果你能为自己设定人生方向，采取必要行动去实现它，并避开当今世界无穷无尽的诱惑与分心，你就永远不会面临被取代的风险。

Because if you can set your own life direction, do what is required to achieve it, and avoid the infinite number of temptations and distractions in today's world, you will never be at risk of replacement.

即使你真的被取代了，这也不重要，因为你能迅速适应。

And if you do get replaced, it doesn't matter because you can quickly adapt.

因此，在这段视频中，我想分享五个关于主动性的理念：它是什么、为什么它比以往任何时候都更重要，以及如何实践它，以便你能获得人生中真正想要的东西。

So in this video, I want to share five ideas on what agency is, why it matters more than ever, and how to practice it so you can get what you want in life.

所以第一个观点是，能动性是在无需许可的情况下持续迭代的能力。

So the first idea is that agency is the ability to iterate without permission.

这与目前网上大多数人所说的能动性略有不同，他们认为能动性就是无需许可就能行动的能力。

And this is a slight redefinition of what most people are talking about online right now in terms of agency because they're saying that it is the ability to act without permission.

但我们会看到为什么这种说法是错误的。

But we'll see why that is wrong.

也许这并不完全错误，也许那确实是能动性的定义，但我希望重新定义它，使其对你真正有用。

And maybe it isn't wrong, maybe that's the definition of agency, but I want to redefine it in a way that is actually useful to you.

让我们从克里希那穆提的一句话开始：唯有那些持续反抗的人才能发现真理，而非那些顺从、追随传统的人。

So we'll start with a quote from Krishnamurti It is only those who are in constant revolt that discover what is true, not the man who conforms, who follows some tradition.

因此，要理解高能动性个体是什么样的，最好先理解什么不是能动性。

So in order to understand what a high agency individual is, it's very helpful to understand what it is not.

能动性不是机械式的顺从。

Agency is not mechanical conformity.

顺从意味着你的思维仍与社会保持着脐带般的联系。

Conformity is when your mind is still connected by an umbilical cord to society.

顺从是一种发展阶段，在这个阶段，你的思维完全受文化编程驱动，依据流行度和他人的接受度来判断真理，而非依靠你自己的直接体验或独立探究。

Conformity is a stage of development where your mind operates entirely through cultural programming, judging truth based on popularity and acceptance by others rather than your own direct experience or independent investigation.

现在，如果你认真思考我刚才说的话，如果你没理解我刚才说的内容，请回去重新听一遍，你会明白这正是对过上美好生活最大的威胁之一。

Now if you really think about what I just said, if you don't understand what I just said please go back and re listen to it, you understand that that is one of the greatest threats to living a good life.

当你出生时，你的思维就像一台全新的电脑。

Now when you're born, your mind is like a new computer.

它有一个基础的操作系统，但硬盘完全是空白的。

There's a base operating system, but the hard drive is completely blank.

在你生命的前二十年里，你并不会独立思考。

For the first twenty years of your life, you do not think independently.

但这没关系。

And that's okay.

没有人能做到。

Nobody does.

无论你觉得自己多么独立，因为那只是另一种形式的顺从。

No matter how independent you think you are because that's just another form of conformity.

那个觉得自己在反抗父母的小孩，其实只是在遵从朋友的行为方式。

The little kid that thinks he's rebelling against his parents is just conforming to what his friends him to do.

在螺旋动力学的九阶段自我发展模型中，数据显示大约百分之五十的人口处于顺从阶段，意味着有一半的人缺乏实现真正自主的认知能力。

Now in the spiral dynamics in nine stages of ego development models they show that around fifty percent of the population is at the conformist stage of development meaning half the population lacks the cognitive development for genuine agency.

顺从源于生存需求，因为人类的生存不仅依赖于生理层面（如动物通过繁衍基因生存），还依赖于心理层面，即通过传播信念、思想和信息来生存。

Now conformity stems from survival because humans don't only survive on the physical level like animals, where they're reproducing genes, but they survive on the psychological level, where they're reproducing beliefs, ideas, and information.

如果你有一份工作，你在这一生活领域中的自主性很低，因为如果这份工作没了，你的生存就会受到威胁，所以你必须顺从以保住工作。

If you work a job, you have a low degree of agency in that domain of life because if that job were to go away, your survival is at stake, so you must conform in order to keep the job.

我的意思是，你最初获得这份工作的方式就是迎合你认为老板喜欢的东西，以便让他雇佣你。

I mean, that's what you have to do to get the job in the first place is you have to conform to what you think the boss will like so that he can hire you.

而在工作中，你可能还需要遵守特定的着装规范。

And then while you're on the job, you have to maybe wear a specific dress code.

你必须遵循一套由老板或经理批准的特定流程来完成工作。

You have to go through a specific set of processes to do your work that are approved by the boss or your manager.

也许你还得遵守朝九晚五的工作时间。

Maybe you have to conform to a nine to five style workday.

再举个例子，如果你有根深蒂固的信念，将你绑定在某个政党和宗教组织上，你就没有很高的自主性，因为你的善恶观念源于你的文化，而非你个人的探索或发现。

As another example, if you have hard set beliefs that bind you to a specific political party or religious organization, you do not have a high degree of agency because your ideas of good and bad originate from your culture, not your own personal investigation or discovery.

如今，科技、商业和人工智能领域的人们都热衷于谈论高自主性，但这只是另一种迎合科技和商业圈流行趋势的从众行为。

Everyone in the tech and business space and the AI space right now loves to talk about being high agency, but that's just another form of conformity to what is popular in the tech and business space.

如果你不谈论它，那你就不够潮流。

And if you're not talking about it, then you're not with it.

话虽如此，这个视频本身也带有一定的从众性。

With that said, this video has some degree of conformity.

我们在某种程度上都是从众者，而既然从众是一种生存策略或生存工具，它就可以像工具一样被使用。

We're all conformists in some ways, and since it's a survival strategy or survival tool, it can be used like a tool.

我之所以在生存，是因为我努力在YouTube领域保持相关性。

I'm surviving in the sense that I'm trying to stay relevant in the YouTube space.

那么，真正的自主性是什么样子的？

So what does true agency look like?

我们该如何开始培养自身的自主性，使我们的情绪、财务状况和人生机遇不再受他人支配？

And how can we start to develop it in ourselves so that our emotions, finances, and opportunities in life aren't dictated by someone else?

首先，高能动性的人会在未经许可的情况下不断迭代。

The first thing it looks like is that high agency people iterate without permission.

拥有能动性意味着成为句子的主语，而不是直接宾语。

To have agency is to be the subject of a sentence rather than its direct object.

这是一种倾向于主动行动，而不是被动等待他人行动的倾向。

It is the tendency to act rather than wait to be acted upon.

这是德文·埃里克森文章《成功的第三要素》中的一句话。

That is a quote from Devin Erickson's article The Third Ingredient of Success.

现在，能动性字面意思是处于行动或运作状态。

Now agency literally means the condition of being in action or operation.

当它用来描述一个人时，意味着在没有外部提示、指导或许可的情况下，主动朝着目标采取行动的倾向。

When it's used to describe a person, it means the tendency to initiate action towards a goal without outside prompting, instruction, or permission.

但当我们观察真正让人成功的原因时，它不仅仅是朝着目标行动。

But when we look at what actually makes people successful, it isn't just acting toward a goal.

任何人都可以创办一家企业，但这并不意味着它会取得任何形式的成功。

Anyone can start a business, but that doesn't mean it will reach any form of success.

事实上，他们中的大多数都没有，因为他们缺少了这个关键拼图。

Most of them don't, in fact, because they're missing the one critical piece of the puzzle.

如果某件事不奏效，你就反思情况，做出调整，然后一遍又一遍地尝试，直到达到最终目标。

If something doesn't work, you reflect on the situation, make an adjustment, and try again over and over until you reach your end destination.

因此，在我看来，能动性不仅是行动，更是对持续迭代的不懈承诺。

Agency then, in my opinion, is not only action but an undying commitment to iteration.

学习与实践并行。

Learning and doing in unison.

犯错并纠正错误，而不因无效而被诱惑回到舒适的顺从状态。

Making mistakes and correcting mistakes without being seduced back into a comforting conformity because it's not working.

是的，我就是在对那些开始后两周就放弃的人说话。

And yes, I'm talking to you people who start and quit after two weeks.

高能动性人士的第二个特征是，他们把生活视为一场巨大的实验。

Now the second tell of a high agency person is that they treat life as one giant experiment.

低能动性的人可以用员工心态来描述。

Low agency people can be characterized by the employee mindset.

他们被指派了一项任务，通常还伴随着某种身份或头衔，这会触发他们大脑中渴望群体认同的部分，从而立即影响他们的决策。

They are assigned a task, often with some form of status or credential that triggers the part of their brain that craves acceptance by the tribe and their decision making is immediately compromised.

他们再也无法跳出被强加的框架去思考。

They can no longer think outside of the confines placed upon them.

而高能动性的人则是自己生活的科学家。

Now high agency people are scientists of their own lives.

他们有了一个想法，便为自己设定目标，提出假设或基于经验的猜测，然后进行测试、调整、研究，并努力朝目标前进，接着他们失败了。

They have an idea, they set their own goal, they create a hypothesis or an educated guess on how to achieve it, then they test, tinker, research, and make an attempt toward the goal, and then they fail.

频繁地失败。

A lot.

但既然这是一场实验，失败就是过程的一部分。

But since this is an experiment, that's a part of the process.

他们预期自己会失败。

They expect to fail.

因为如果不经历失败，他们又怎能排除那些行不通的方法，直到找到真正有效的呢？

Because how else are they going to narrow down what doesn't work until they find what does?

现在，这是当今人们如何看待成功的一个重大问题。

Now, this is a significant issue with how people perceive success today.

他们被他人许诺了某些东西，比如一份高薪的工作，或者一个能快速建立起来、让你一夜暴富的生意。

They are promised something by someone else, like a job that pays a lot of money or a business that can be built really quickly so you can get rich quick.

而这些人恰恰做了他们被要求去做的事。

And those people do exactly what they're supposed to do.

但当他们不可避免地失败时，他们认为这是不可能的，并把责任推给所有人，唯独不怪自己。

But when they inevitably fail, they deem it impossible and blame everyone but themselves.

他们没有注意到自己犯了错误，而这个错误是可以纠正的，他们可以重新尝试。

They don't notice that they made a mistake and that they can correct that mistake and try again.

第三点是，高能动性的人相信困难。

Now the third thing is that high agency people believe in the difficult.

你正在观看这段内容，并希望成为高能动性的人，因为你相信这会为你的人生带来积极的改变。

You're watching this and you want to become high agency because you believe that it will make a positive difference in your life.

你正在努力实现一个目标。

You're trying to reach a goal.

你正在努力实现一个目标，而目标分为三种类型。

You're trying to achieve a goal, and goals come in three forms.

有容易的目标。

There's easy goals.

比如我们每天都在做的事情，或者凭借我们已有的技能和资源就能达成的事情。

So things that we do every day or things we can achieve with the skills or resources we already have.

有困难的目标，即我们现在还做不到，但只要获得正确的技能和资源，最终是能够实现的。

There's difficult goals, so things we can't do right now, but that we can eventually do if we acquire the right skills and resources.

还有不可能的目标，即那些超出可能性和现实范围的事情，或者只有在完成一系列困难目标之后，才能将原本看似不可能的目标变为可能的目标。

And then there's impossible goals, so something that is either outside of the realm of possibility and reality or something we can't do until we complete the series of difficult goals that allow us to see impossible goals as possible.

低能动性的人拥有一种信念体系，这种体系很可能是在他们小时候或后来生活中，通过接受某种意识形态（如政党、宗教、加入的朋友群体等）而被潜移默化形成的，这种信念体系扭曲了他们对困难目标的认知。

So low agency people have a belief system that was more than likely conditioned into their mind when they were a kid or later on in life with any kind of ideology they accepted into their life like a political party, a religion, a friend group they joined, and that belief system skews how they perceive difficult goals.

他们把困难目标视为不可能目标，甚至不去尝试。

They see difficult goals as impossible goals and don't even try them.

他们甚至不理解，所谓的不可能目标只是现在看起来不可能，直到你达到某个阶段，它们才会变得可能。

And they don't even understand that impossible goals are only impossible right now until you get to a point where they become possible.

现在，如果你看看塞利格曼的狗实验——这是一个针对狗进行的实验，你就能看到社会是如何对大多数人做同样的事情的。

Now if you take Seligman's dog experiment, which is an experiment done on dogs, you can see how society does just this to most people.

在这个实验中，狗被暴露在无法逃避的电击中，使它们感到自己对环境毫无控制力。

So in this experiment, dogs were exposed to unavoidable electric shocks, making them feel as if they had no control over their environment.

后来，当它们被放在一个只需跳过一堵矮墙就能逃脱电击的环境中时，这些狗却并没有尝试逃脱。

Later, when they were placed in a situation where they could simply jump over a small wall to escape the shocks, the dogs did not attempt to do so.

它们只是哀鸣着忍受电击，即使逃脱轻而易举。

They just whined and bore the shocks even when escaping was easily available to them.

因此，实现你想要的生活的目标可能是困难的，但你被训练得相信根本无法达成它，以至于你甚至不去思考或考虑这个可能性。

So the goal of reaching the life you want may be difficult, but you were trained to believe that there is no way to achieve it so you don't even think about it or consider that idea.

换句话说，你只是被训练去忍受默认人生路径带来的痛苦。

In other words, you're just trained to bear the shocks of the default path.

你只是认为每个人都在经历的痛苦是正常的，而不是可以选择的。

You just think that the pain of the life that everyone is going through is normal and not optional.

幸运的是，有一种方法可以练习自主性。

The good thing is that there is a way to practice agency.

你可以将它培养成一种技能或特质。

You can cultivate it as a skill or a trait.

但这些实际步骤如果没有对它在当今世界中的应用有深刻理解，就毫无意义。

But these practical steps don't matter unless you have a deep understanding of how this applies in today's world.

所以，这些就是高能动性人士的特征，现在我们需要转向第二个观点，即人工智能对高能动性的人并非威胁。

So those were the characteristics of what a high agency person is, and now we need to move on to the second idea which is that AI is not a threat to the high agency people.

为了说明这一点，这里是我之前发的一条推文，不知为何获得了大量互动，但它只是我使用人工智能的方式。

To illustrate this, here's a tweet that I wrote a while back and it got a lot of engagement for some reason, but it's just how I've been using AI.

选择一项任务，找到一位教授该任务的YouTube专家，让AI总结他们的视频，添加示例上下文，让AI将这些内容转化为元提示，测试、优化并重复使用该提示。

Choose a task, find a YouTube expert that teaches it, have AI summarize their video, add examplecontext, have AI turn that into a meta prompt, test, refine, and reuse that prompt.

这让我在几乎所有使用AI完成的任务中都取得了最佳效果。

This has led to the best results in almost everything I have AI do.

其实我在前两期视频中已经详细拆解过整个过程。

I actually broke down that entire process two videos ago.

我不记得视频叫什么了，但封面写着‘34分钟学会AI’或‘29分钟学会AI’。

I don't remember what the video is called, but the thumbnail says learn AI in thirty four minutes or twenty nine minutes.

它说类似这样的话：好吧，回到重点。

It says something like Okay, so back to the point.

你现在可以获取任何你实现目标所需的知识，但人们仍然对这些信息无所作为。

You now have access to any knowledge you would ever need to achieve whatever you want, and yet people still do nothing with that information.

这是一个关键点。

That's a crucial point.

如今，成功比以往任何时候都更容易，但那些原本无法实现目标的人，依然无法实现，这意味着这从来就不是关于机会或平等，而是始终关乎主动性。

Success is now easier than ever, yet the people who weren't going to achieve it still aren't going to achieve it, meaning this was never about access or equal opportunity, it's always been about agency.

另一方面，高主动性的人会以十倍的速度超越他人，因为他们无需许可就能行动，而行动的障碍如今几乎不复存在。

High agency people, on the other hand, will outpace everyone else by 10x because they act without permission and the barriers to action are now close to nonexistent.

如果你因资金或资源有限而无法实现大目标，可以设定一个更小的过渡目标，帮助你获得所需的资金或资源。

If you can't achieve a big goal due to limited money or resources, you can set a smaller stepping stone goal that will help you acquire that money or resource.

每个人都担心同一件事，坦白说，他们之所以害怕，只是因为无法清晰思考。

Everyone is worried about the same thing, and frankly, they're only afraid because they can't think clearly.

让我们来看一个典型的例子：AI将产生海量内容，人类创作者将毫无胜算。

So let's look at the prime example, which is that AI is going to create so much content that human creators don't stand a chance.

我目前正在写这方面的内容。

I'm actually writing about this right now.

你可以在简介中的通讯链接里阅读。

You can read it in my newsletter link in the description.

首先，AI是一种工具。

First thing here is that AI is a tool.

工具需要有人为了特定目的来使用它。

Tools need someone to use them for a specific purpose.

当然，任何人都可以要求AI从播客中生成一条或一千条爆款帖子，AI还能分析它们是否真的会走红。

So sure, anyone can ask AI to generate a viral post or a thousand viral posts from a podcast and the AI can rank them or run a simulation on whether or not they're actually going to go viral.

但这有什么用呢？

But what good is that?

这到底有什么实际好处？

What actual good is that?

你有想过这个问题吗？

Have you thought about it?

还是你只是听到了这个，然后觉得：哦，对，听起来有点道理。

Or have you just heard that and been like, oh, yeah, that sounds kind of true.

好吧。

Okay.

我不想再思考这个问题了。

I'm done thinking about it.

你可以通过这种方式获得一堆点赞和一堆粉丝。

You can get a bunch of likes and a bunch of followers that way.

但变现呢？

But what about monetization?

忠诚度呢？

What about loyalty?

或者让品牌长期运作的其他任何因素呢？

Or what about any of the other things that make a brand work long term?

是的。

Yes.

你可以让AI帮助你完成这件事或帮助你理解它，但你现在做的事情已经完全不同了。

You can ask AI to help with that or help you understand it, but now you're doing something completely different.

你不是在让AI替你做这件事。

You're not asking AI to do it for you.

你现在是在学习。

You're learning now.

你正在统筹实现一个更大的愿景。

You're orchestrating the realization of a larger vision.

这和你自己做并没有太大区别。

And it's not that different from doing it yourself.

你现在只是以更快的方式从不同的来源获取信息。

You're just getting the information from a different source now in a faster way.

你仍然是决策者。

You are still the decision maker.

当然，AI可以按命令生成一张精美的图片，但拥有愿景并利用AI来实现愿景的人，与只想快速生成一张图片的人之间，存在着巨大差异。

And sure, AI can generate a beautiful image on command, but there is a huge difference between someone who has a vision and uses AI to help them execute that vision and someone who just wants to create a quick image.

如今许多艺术家使用AI进行初稿创作。

Many artists nowadays use AI for first drafts.

许多艺术家仍然会将作品导入Photoshop进行调整，以使其更接近他们想要的效果，因为目前的图像生成器还无法实现非常精细的细节。

Many artists still take it into Photoshop and make tweaks that would allow it to look more like what they want it to look like because you can't get super detailed with the image generators right now.

因此，总体而言，我认为AI揭示了创作过程中真正重要的东西。

So as a whole, I believe that AI has exposed what really matters in the creative process.

当你让AI为你做所有决定时，换句话说，你让它根据互联网上成千上万的反馈来猜测什么有效，那就缺乏连贯性。

When you ask AI to make all the decisions for you, in other words you ask it to guess what works based on hundreds of thousands of opinions on the internet, there is no through line.

没有主题。

There is no theme.

没有个性。

There is no personality.

没有愿景。

There is no vision.

没有背景。

There is no context.

这就是创作者的本质。

That's what creators are.

他们是情境的创造者。

Context creators.

他们不是内容的创造者。

They're not content creators.

没有情境，内容就毫无意义，AI生成的内容也是如此。

The content is meaningless without context, and AI generations are the same.

除了大脑腐化和迷因之外，实际上也有一些非常棒的迷因——比如刷屏时看到那些大脑腐化的内容，它们唯一的用途就是让你停留在平台上，直到你看到广告，让社交媒体平台赚钱；而这些平台背后，其实是有特定人物精心设计的主线和品牌愿景，无论是否使用AI。

So aside from brain rot and memes, and there's actually some great ones out there actually like scrolling and seeing some of the brain rot, which are only good at keeping you on the platform until you see an advertisement so the social media platforms can make money, which then have a through line and brand vision crafted for a specific purpose by a specific person using AI or not.

除非使用AI的人本身已经擅长创作内容，否则AI几乎毫无用处。

AI is practically useless unless the person using AI is already good at creating content.

你明白了吗？

Did that click for you?

99%的AI生成内容都直接沦为垃圾。

99% of AI generated content goes straight to the bottom of the barrel.

因为如果这些内容有效，那就说明它有价值。

Because if that content worked, then there's value there.

无论它是否由AI生成都不重要，因为它极有可能是由一个人策划的，这个人将自己的个人背景融入其中。

And it doesn't matter if it was AI generated or not, because it was more than likely orchestrated by a human who was passing off their personal context to it.

在创业时，你必须拥有一个品牌使命，AI可以帮助你执行，而且你必须不断迭代。

When building a business, you must have a brand mission that AI helps you execute and you must iterate constantly.

写书时，你必须掌控所有细节，更重要的是，你仍需让人愿意阅读，因为书本身不会主动吸引读者。

When writing a book, you must maintain control of all minor details and beyond that, you must still be able to get people to read it which the book is not going to do itself.

创作艺术时，你仍需拥有一个想要实现的想法。

When creating art, you must still have an idea that you are attempting to bring into reality.

换句话说，一切都没有改变，人们只是讨厌新事物。

In other words, nothing has changed, people just hate what's new.

而这种新事物恰恰照亮了原本就重要的东西。

And that new is shining a light on what mattered in the first place.

如果你无法用AI创作艺术，那你根本就不是真正的艺术家。

If you can't create art with AI, then you were never an artist to begin with.

你只是擅长使用像Photoshop这样的工具，而工具总会被取代。

You were simply good at using a tool like Photoshop and tools get replaced.

但视野和主动性不会。

Vision and agency do not.

说到这个，这就引出了第三个观点：为什么通才在人工智能时代更能胜出。

So speaking of that, that brings us to idea number three is why generalists win in the AI age.

学校最初是为了通过承诺专业化的声望来奴役最聪明的大脑，使他们思想狭隘，从而不会推翻真正的统治者。

Schools were created to enslave the brightest minds by promising the prestige of specialization so they remained narrow minded and didn't overthrow the true rulers.

这是来自我书中的一句话，你可以在我的Substack平台《Purpose and Profit》上免费阅读，这句话虽然被断章取义了不少，但大体上是正确的。

That is a quote from my book that you can read free on my Substack, Purpose and Profit that has taken quite a bit out of context, but that quote is largely true.

现在，每当我撰写或制作关于成为通才、全才或多领域兴趣者的内容时，总有人跳出来告诉我我有多错。

Now, whenever I write or create a video on becoming a generalist or a polymath or someone with multiple interests, people just seem to pop up and they want to tell me how wrong I am.

当然，他们从不给我一个合理的论据来说明为什么专家更好。

And of course, they never give me a coherent argument as to why a specialist is better.

实际上，有时他们确实给出了理由，但他们根本没听懂我最初说的是什么。

Actually, sometimes they do, but they don't actually listen to what I'm saying in the first place.

他们没有充分理解我的论点。

They don't steel man my argument.

他们通常无意中证明了我是对的。

They they usually inadvertently prove me right.

有些人甚至引用莎士比亚的经典名言：‘样样通，样样松’，但他们不知道这是误引，原句后面还有‘却往往胜过专精一门的人’。

And some of them even proceed to quote the classic from Shakespeare, which is a jack of all trades, master of none, yet they're unaware that that is a misquote and it ends with but oftentimes better than a master of one.

有些人可能认为莎士比亚是一位专门的剧作家，但那只是他的载体。

Now some may think Shakespeare was a specialist playwright, but that was simply a vessel.

他必须深刻理解人性、人物塑造、语言、古典文学、舞台技艺、宗教、哲学、军事战术、音乐、航海、自然世界、社会结构、人体与医学，等等不胜枚举。

He had to have a deep understanding of human nature, character development, language, classical literature, stagecraft, religion, philosophy, military tactics, music, navigation, the natural world, social structures, the body and medicine, the list goes on.

他是一位综合者，将自己多元的兴趣作为优势。

He was a synthesizer who used his diverse interests as his edge.

再看一位《财富》五百强的首席执行官。

Now take a Fortune five hundred CEO.

查尔斯·达尔文、史蒂夫·乔布斯，或任何其他取得非凡成功的远见者或战略家，都拥有明确的愿景，并学习和采取必要步骤去实现它。

Charles Darwin, Steve Jobs, or any other visionary or strategist who achieves outsized success has a specific vision that they then learn and take the necessary steps to achieve.

不要把特定的工具或领域误认为是专家。

Do not confuse specific vessel or niche as being a specialist.

专家是与技能绑定的。

Specialists are attached to the skill.

随着技术进步，技能总会被取代和演变。

Skills always get replaced and evolve as technology advances.

我们现在看不到这一点，但Photoshop曾颠覆了艺术行业。

We don't see this now, but Photoshop disrupted the art industry.

你现在看到Photoshop，觉得它是我们流程中不可或缺的一部分，但我可以肯定，如果回到Photoshop刚出现的时代，或者甚至只是计算机图形刚出现的时候，那些手工绘图的艺术家们很可能正声嘶力竭地喊着：这会毁掉一切。

You see Photoshop now and you see it as an integral part of our process, but I can guarantee if we were back in those times where Photoshop came around or not even just Photoshop, but computer generated graphics came around, the manual hand drawn artists were probably just screaming at the top of their lungs that this is going to ruin everything.

现在AI正发生着同样的事情。

That's exactly what's happening right now with AI.

虽然我非常支持AI，但后续还会发布更多视频，讨论它的另一面。

And while I'm very pro AI, there's gonna be more videos on me talking about the other side.

我认为AI现在存在一些非常严重的问题，比如内容创作领域，人们只是说：‘帮我写个脚本’，然后直接对着镜头念出来。

I think there's things that are very, very wrong with AI, like the content creation space right now, and people just asking, hey, create me a script for this, and then they just read it to the camera.

你显然能看出来他们是在使用AI。

And you can obviously tell that they're using AI.

关于这一点，我有很多话要说。

I have a lot to say about that.

而通才则不同，他们并不关心这项技能是否会被人取代或演变，因为他们关注的是目标。

Now generalists, on the other hand, they aren't they don't care whether or not the skill is going to be replaced or if it's going to evolve because they're focused on the goal.

他们关注的是愿景。

They're focused on the vision.

他们关注的是完成必要的事情，包括调整目标，以便在任何情况下都能茁壮成长。

They're focused on doing what's necessary, including changing the goal so that they can thrive in anything they do.

他们并不以某项技能为身份认同，也不像热爱Photoshop那样热爱某项技能。

They don't identify with a skill or think they're passionate about a skill like being passionate about Photoshop.

他们热爱的是人生的方向，并致力于创造它。

They're passionate about their direction in life and creating that.

让我进一步分解一下。

So let me break this down further.

人类是工具的创造者。

Humans are tool builders.

我们能在任何领域中茁壮成长，因为我们能够适应它。

We thrive in any niche because we can adapt to it.

如果你把一只狮子放在阿拉斯加，把一只北极熊放在草原上，它们都会死亡。

If you were to put a lion in Alaska and a polar bear in the savannah, they would die.

但如果你把一个人放在其中任何一个地方，他会建造庇护所、制作衣物，并狩猎食物，因为他能制定计划并付诸实施。

If you were to put a human in either, they would build shelter, clothing, and hunt for something to eat because they can create a plan and execute on it.

事实上，为了在19世纪的美国教育大量移民儿童，美国采用了普鲁士教育模式，这根本不是教育，而是一种大规模同化的工具。

The reality is, to educate large numbers of immigrant children in the 1800s America adopted the Prussian education model, which was not education at all, but a weapon of mass conformity.

它旨在通过强制出勤、教师培训、学生考试和年级制度，培养顺从的士兵、 compliant 的公民、公务员和守规矩的工人。

It was designed to create obedient soldiers, compliant citizens, civil servants, and well behaved workers through mandatory attendance, training for teachers, testing for students, and the concept of grade levels.

这听起来熟悉吗？

Does that sound familiar?

社会希望你简单、可预测、容易归类。

Society wants you simple, predictable, and easy to categorize.

为什么？

Why?

因为这最符合他们的利益。

Because that's what best serves their interests.

这最符合组织的利润。

That's what best serves the profits of organizations.

如果你理解系统，你就会明白，系统会呈现出最有利于其最终目标的形态，而在社会中，这个目标就是让你生病和愚昧，无论这是否是故意的。

If you understand systems, you understand that the system takes the shape of that which most benefits the end goal, which in society's case is keeping you sick and dumb, whether it's intentional or not.

即使这不是阴谋论，系统也会自然地呈现出金字塔顶端人类潜意识欲望的形态。

It doesn't have to be conspiracy theory for the system to naturally take shape of the subconscious desires of the humans at the top of the pyramid.

那你该怎么办？

So what do you do?

面对这一切，你该怎么做？

What do you do about all this?

如果奴隶被要求一生只做一件事，从而使他们的思想封闭，无法学习更多，而这些就是专家，那么作为自由个体的你，一生中本应从事许多事情。

Well, if slaves were expected to do one thing throughout the entirety of their lives so that their minds were closed to learning more, which are specialists, then you, as a free individual, are meant to do many things throughout your life.

你本应成为通才。

You're meant to be a generalist.

换句话说，你要反抗与生俱来的既定道路。

In other words, you revolt against the path you were set on at birth.

你追求以兴趣为导向的教育。

You pursue an interest based education.

你明智地运用自己的能力。

You use your capabilities wisely.

这就是第四个理念，即五大人能力。

And that's idea number four, which is the five human capabilities.

能动性固然重要，但我们仍受物理法则的约束。

Now agency is great, but we're still bound by the laws of physics.

这引发了另一个随着人工智能热潮起伏的巨大担忧。

And this creates another giant worry that ebbs and flows with AI hype cycles.

通用人工智能会使人类智力变得无关紧要吗？

Will AGI make human intelligence irrelevant?

让我们通过提出几个问题来澄清这一点。

Let's gain clarity on this by asking a few questions.

我们会快速过一遍。

We're gonna go through this quick.

人类的能力是有限的，还是无限的？

Are human capabilities limited or are they infinite?

作为高能动性的通才，我们难道不具备学习和做任何基因不禁止我们学习或做的事情的能力吗？

As high agency generalists, do we not have the capability to learn anything and do anything that our genes do not limit us from learning or doing.

我们之所以能在许多领域中茁壮成长，是因为我们通过知识和工具进行适应，因此关于人类能力的根本问题是：我们在思考和如何思考方面是否存在任何限制？

We thrive in many niches because we adapt with knowledge and tools, so the fundamental question about human capabilities is: Are there any limits on what we can think and how we can think?

所以，如果主要的限制是大脑的处理速度和内存，难道不能被增强吗？

So if the main limit is the processing speed and memory of our brain, can that not be augmented?

当AGI成为现实时，这难道不会变得更加可能吗？

And when AGI becomes a thing, will that not be ever more possible?

我们难道不会成为AGI吗？

Will we not be AGI?

我们难道还不是AGI吗？

Are we not already AGI?

我们难道不会成为超智能的一部分吗？

Will we not be amongst the superintelligent?

推测这些事情很有趣，而且在它们真正成为现实之前我们还有一些时间，所以我希望聚焦于近期的未来。

It's fun to speculate about these things and we have some time before it actually becomes reality, so I want to focus on the near future.

因此，人类有五种基本能力。

So there are five fundamental human capabilities.

AI或AGI能否使这些能力变得无关紧要？

Can AI or AGI ever make those irrelevant?

第一种能力是计算，这是精神层面的。

The first capability is computation, which is mental.

那么，我们能计算的东西有没有极限？

So is there any limit to what we can compute?

没有，因为一旦我们拥有了可以握在手中的通用计算机，计算任何东西就只是时间和内存的问题了。

No, because once you have a universal computer that we can hold in our hands, it's just a matter of time and memory to compute anything.

我们已经具备了这一点，如果AGI或外星人也拥有它，它们的计算能力范围将与我们相同，不会比我们更有优势。

We have that, and if AGIs or aliens had that, they would have the same repertoire of computation as us and no advantage over us.

你可能会说AGI能够计算得快得多，但这并不会加快物理转化的节奏，而物理转化才是实现事物构建的关键。

You may say that AGI will be able to compute much faster, but that does not speed up the pace of the physical transformation that allows things to be built.

你可以有建造粒子对撞机的想法，但你仍然需要资源来建造它，并且仍然需要从零开始建造它。

You can have an idea for building a particle collider, but you still need the resources to build it, and you still need to build it from that.

第二种能力是转化，即物理层面的转化。

The second capability is transformation, which is physical.

转化就是创造。

Transformation is creation.

在拥有适当知识的情况下，我们将原材料转化为火箭。

We turn raw materials into rockets given the right knowledge.

人类的手和身体似乎特别擅长在特定操作序列下创造任何东西。

Human hands and bodies seem to be especially good at creating anything given a specific sequence of operations.

我们建造了宇宙飞船和望远镜，这意味着我们可以制造出制造工具的工具。

We've built spaceships and telescopes, meaning that we can build the thing that builds the thing.

我们是通用型生物，能够制造工具以在任何环境中生存。

We are generalists that build tools to thrive in any environment.

我们不是局限于单一生态位的动物。

We are not animals bound to one niche.

那么问题来了，当这些基本操作以正确的方式串联起来时，它们的能力是否有极限？

So the question is, is there a limit to what these basic operations can do when strung together in the right way?

再次说明，答案是否定的。

Now again, the answer is no.

如果人类能远程操控一只大猩猩，只要给它时间，它就能按照一系列步骤建造火箭。

If humans could teleoperate a gorilla, there is a sequence of steps it can take to build a rocket given time.

不，我不是说一只大猩猩单独完成。

And, no, I'm not saying a single gorilla.

想象一下，如果埃隆·马斯克在操控这只大猩猩。

Imagine if Elon Musk were operating the gorilla.

他会怎么做？

What would he do?

这里的关键是时间。

Now the thing here is time.

转变需要时间，而奇点并不会改变这一点，就像启蒙运动或大爆炸也没有改变一样。

Transformations take time, and singularity isn't going to change that just as the enlightenment or the big bang didn't.

大爆炸并没有创造出火箭。

The big bang didn't create rocket ships.

启蒙运动也没有创造出火箭。

The enlightenment didn't create rocket ships.

它可能为火箭的出现创造了一些前提条件，但要达到那个阶段仍然需要时间。

It created maybe some prerequisites for them, but it still took time to get to that point.

时间是一种压缩算法，防止一切同时发生。

Time is a compression algorithm that prevents everything from happening at once.

换句话说，通用人工智能可能比我们的大脑计算得更快，但这并不意味着它能比人类更快地创造出东西。

In other words, AGI may be able to compute faster than our brains, but that doesn't mean it will be able to create the thing faster than humans.

你可以有建造火箭的想法，但你仍然需要获取建造火箭所需的资源。

You can have an idea for building a rocket, but you still need to acquire the resources to build the rocket.

在计算和转化这两种能力之后，还有变异、选择和注意力。

Now after computation and transformation as the two capabilities, there is variation, selection, and attention.

这些与导航思想空间有关，也就是我们如何创造知识。

And these have to do with navigating idea space, or how we create knowledge.

我们可以进行计算和转化，但我们在能够如此做的知识上存在局限吗？

We can compute and transform, do but we have limits on the knowledge that allows us to do so?

知识具有两种功能。

Now knowledge serves two functions.

第一是让特定的事情发生，最好是好事而非坏事；第二是捕捉现实中的模式。

The first is to make specific things happen, preferably good things rather than bad, and the second is to capture patterns in reality.

这使我们能够以高效的方式存储信息，从而不必在每次追求中都从零开始。

This allows us to store information in an efficient way so that we aren't always starting from scratch in our pursuits.

我们理解诸如太阳每日东升西落、季节周期性更替这样的宏观概念。

We understand big picture concepts like the sun rising and falling each day and seasons changing every so often.

如果没有这种理解，我们生活的许多方面都会崩溃。

Now without this understanding, much of our lives would fall apart.

捕捉模式使我们能够通过邻近性进行规划。

Capturing patterns allows us to plan by proximity.

我们明白在寒冷环境中可能会冻死，因此在旅行时会利用知识储备，比如穿外套、住酒店来保暖。

We understand that we could freeze to death in a cold environment so we use deposits of knowledge like a jacket and hotel to keep us warm while we travel.

现在，把思想空间或未知领域想象成一张带有明暗区域的全球地图。

Now think of idea space or the unknown as a universal map with light and dark spots.

明亮的区域是你已经探索过的地方，而黑暗区域则蕴藏着你的潜力。

The light spots are the areas you've explored and the dark spots are where your potential lies.

这张地图是思想的载体，可以通过与现实对照来发现和验证其有效性。

This map is a surface area for ideas that can be discovered and tested against reality to verify their validity.

当这些结果未能让你更接近目标，或反而让你远离目标时，问题就显现了，你必须进行错误修正以朝目标前进。

When those results do not move you closer toward your goal or move you further from that, a problem is revealed and you must error correct toward the goal.

那么，作为第三种能力的变异，我们能够想出的新想法数量是否有限，以求生存并实现我们的目标？

So with variation, the third capability, is there a limit to the number of new ideas we can come up with to survive and achieve what we set our minds to?

通过计算，我们可以在整个思想空间中导航；通过能动性，我们可以在该空间中采取任何一步，经过许多错误后最终偶然发现一个好主意；而通过创造，我们可以以独特的方式移动，比如飞越森林而非徒步穿越。

With computation, we can navigate the entire space of ideas, with agency we can take any step within that space and eventually stumble across a good idea after many bad ones, and with creation we can move in unique ways like flying over a forest rather than walking through it.

因此，我们可以理解任何事物，创造任何东西，并发现无限多的新想法来解决无限系列的问题。

So we can understand anything, create anything, and discover an infinite set of new ideas to solve an infinite string of problems.

再次强调，通用人工智能也能做到同样的事情，我们都被自然法则所约束，但在这个范围内的任何可能性都是可触及的。

Again, AGI can do the same, and we are both bound by the laws of nature, but any possibility within that is within reach.

现在，第四种能力是选择。

Now the fourth capability is selection.

我们可以提出任何想法，但能否找到其中好的那些呢？

We can come up with any idea, but can we find the good ones?

这里潜在的问题是，如果不从错误中学习，就很难实现累积性进步。

Now the potential problem here is that it is difficult to make cumulative progress without learning from mistakes.

如果我们想在汽油车之后建造电动汽车，却要从零开始，那将毫无乐趣。

It wouldn't be fun to start over from scratch if we wanted to build an electric car after a gas car.

物种。

Species.

作为通用的控制论系统，我们可以更高效地在想法空间中导航，避免迷失方向。

As universal cybernetic systems we can become more efficient at navigating idea space to avoid wandering lost.

我们会纠正错误。

We error correct.

我们会犯错并加以修正。

We make mistakes and fix them.

这里也没有根本性的区别。

There's no fundamental difference here either.

第五个能力是注意力。

Now the fifth capability is attention.

人类往往视而不见的另一个方面是，我们能够通过改变视角来转移注意力。

One other aspect that humans take for granted is our ability to change our focus by changing our perspective.

当问题出现时，你的注意力会转向哪里？

When a problem occurs, where does your attention go?

如果你想造一枚火箭，向古老的神灵求助会有帮助吗？

If you want to build a rocket, does it help to ask the old gods to do it for you?

还是你能换一个视角来看待这种情况，从而发现其中的机会？

Or can you change lenses to view the situation in a way that allows you to perceive opportunities?

虽然这对人类来说是个巨大的问题，因为我们容易陷入思维定式并固守意识形态，但我们确实有能力在问题出现时改变注意力的焦点。

While this is a massive problem for humans, because we get stuck in paradigm lock and we attach to ideologies, we do have the capability to change where our attention goes when problems come up.

我们可以戴上灵性的透镜寻求平静，也可以戴上科学的透镜寻求进步。

We can put on a spiritual lens to find peace and a scientific lens to find progress.

将自己完全认同于一种纯粹上升的灵性哲学，无异于一个不完整的系统，它将无法解决某些特定问题。

Identifying with a purely ascending and spiritual philosophy is no different from being an incomplete system that will fail to solve a certain set of problems.

灵性是一个很好的透镜或工具，但不适合作为主导，也不是万能的解决方案。

Spirituality is a great lens or tool, but a bad master and not the end all be all.

因此，除非AGI能够突破可能性的边界，否则它似乎无法在任何方面超越我们；而一旦如此，我们届时将面临一个完全不同的问题。

So AGI does not seem like it can surpass us in any way unless it bends what is possible, then we would have a very different problem on our hands at that point.

现在，关于能动性的第五个观点是：如何真正实践能动性。

Now the fifth idea about agency is just how to actually practice agency.

在日常实际生活中，我们通常为了目标而采取手段，但在游戏中，我们却可以为了手段而追求目标。

In ordinary practical life, we usually take the means for the sake of the ends, but in games we can take up an end for the sake of the means.

玩游戏可以是对日常生活的一种动机倒置。

Playing games can be a motivational inversion of ordinary life.

这句话出自《能动性即艺术》一书。

That is a quote from the book Agency is Art.

你通过实践他人的能动性，直到能够创造属于自己的能动性。

You develop agency by practicing other people's agencies until you can create your own.

换句话说，就是先遵守规则，直到你能制定自己的规则。

In other words, you play by the rules until you can create your own.

也就是说，最重要的高能动性特质是知道何时打破从众。

Meaning the most important high agency trait is knowing when to break free of conformity.

能动性整体而言不是一种技能或特质，而是一种艺术形式。

Agency as a whole is not a skill or a trait, but an art form.

观察这种艺术形式最好的方式是通过游戏，因为绘画让我们记录视觉，音乐让我们记录声音，故事让我们记录叙事，而游戏让我们记录能动性。

And the best way to observe that art form is in games, because painting lets us record sights, music lets us record sounds, stories let us record narratives, and games let us record agencies.

当你玩游戏时，你几乎总是从明确目标开始：赢得游戏。

When you play a game, you almost always start with the goal in mind: win the game.

从那里开始，你有各种任务，但这些任务必须根据你的经验顺序执行。

From there, you have various quests, but those quests must be executed in order of your experience.

你从一级开始，然后晋升到二级及更高。

You start at level one, then advance to level two and beyond.

一旦你达到更高的水平，你就能凭借所有的知识和技能，回过头来设计如何实现下一个目标。

And once you reach a much higher level, you are able to look back with all of your knowledge and skill to devise how you are going to reach the next goal.

你的水平越高，生活就越有趣，因为你能够自主选择下一个具有挑战性且有意义的目标。

The higher level you are, the more fun life becomes because you get to choose the challenging yet meaningful goal you take on next.

这些目标并不是像你在教程阶段那样被强加给你的。

It is not assigned to you as if you were in a tutorial phase.

这正是为什么你的生活可能感觉失去控制的原因。

That's exactly why your life may feel out of control.

你已经达到了童年、学校或工作的第十级，但现在却感到停滞不前。

You got to level 10 childhood, school, or job but now you feel stuck.

游戏变得不再有趣，因为游戏设计者并不希望你升到更高层级，所以他们会激励你停留在当前阶段。

The game isn't fun anymore because the game makers don't benefit from you going to a higher level, so they incentivize you to stay there.

你被困在无聊与焦虑的循环中，因为所有任务都重复而无意义，而任何进一步的挑战都会让你不知所措，因为你不知道如何学习。

You get trapped in a loop of boredom and anxiety because all of your tasks are repetitive and mindless, and any further challenge overwhelms you because you do not know how to learn.

你人生中最重要的Boss战，是追寻属于自己的道路。

The most important boss fight of your life is to pursue your own path.

那么，你究竟该如何开始实践呢？

So how do you actually start practicing this?

首先，你只需要找到一个值得追求的目标，它可以是任何东西，因为实际上没人知道自己真正想要什么。

First, you simply need something to pursue, and it can be anything because nobody actually knows what they want.

相反，他们非常清楚自己不想要什么，并以此为未来设定方向。

Instead, they deeply understand what they don't want and allow that to create an aim for their future.

从那里开始，他们就有了前进的方向。

From there, they have a direction to move in.

一旦你有了方向，就可以设定一个目标，让它更实际、更可实现，然后你接下来要做的是：

Once you have that direction, you set a goal to make it more practical and achievable, and then you do the following.

你研究那些他人成功所采用的方法。

You research processes that others have found success with.

你可以在YouTube、社交媒体、知名创作者或导师的课程中找到这些方法。

You can find these on YouTube, social media, courses from reputable creators or mentors.