一支防弹金属基金

大家好，最近怎么样？

What's happening, good people?

今天我们在这里录制第73期Macro Dirt播客，和我搭档Jared Dillian以及特邀嘉宾Bob Coleman一起。

We are here to record Macro Dirt podcast number 73 with my man, Jared Dillian, and special guest, Bob Coleman.

Bob，你今天感觉如何？

How are doing today, Bob?

挺好的。

Good.

你怎么样？

How are you doing?

我很好。

I'm good.

JD，你怎么样？

How are doing, JD?

我非常好。

I'm doing great.

挺好的，老兄。

Good, man.

我今天发型不错。

I I'm having a good hair day.

是吗？

You are?

是啊。

Yeah.

你看起来确实不错，我喜欢——我喜欢这件西装外套和你脖子上的柔软饰带。

You do look good, and I like the I like the blazer and the soft sash around your neck.

看起来很帅。

That looks nice.

但我们必须进入正题了，因为这是第73期宏观趋势播客。

But we have to go over this because it's macro dirt podcast number 73.

如果你在浏览NHL比赛时看到身穿棕熊队73号球衣的球员，就知道我们说的是天才防守球员查理·麦克沃伊。

If you're browsing around the NHL and you see n number 73 in the Bruins uniform, you know we are talking about phenom defenseman Charlie McEvoy.

现在，如果你在我的家乡转悠，看到McEvoy这个名字，那很可能是某辆管道维修车上的标识，因为他的家族经营着镇上最大最好的管道维修生意。

Now, if you're riding around my hometown and you see the word McEvoy, it's probably on the side of a plumbing truck because his family runs the biggest and best plumbing business in my hometown.

但查理·麦克沃伊是2016年NHL选秀中，波士顿棕熊队以第14顺位选中的球员。

But Charlie McAvoy was the fourteenth overall pick by the Boston Bruins in the two thousand sixteen NHL draft.

他曾效力于NCAA的波士顿大学，在两个赛季的75场比赛中，作为后卫累计获得51分。

He was at Boston University in the NCAA, and across two seasons, 75 games, he amassed 51 points as a defenseman.

对吧？

Right?

两次帮助波士顿大学打进锦标赛。

Helped lead BU to the tournament twice.

是啊。

Yeah.

然后听听这个。

Then listen to this.

2017年4月，麦克沃伊签下了一份为期三年、价值400万美元的新秀合同。

In April 2017, McEvoy signs a three year entry level contract for $4,000,000.

对吧？

Right?

他在19岁时完成NHL首秀，就在波士顿大学季后赛结束两天后，对阵渥太华参议员队的季后赛中，与扎达诺·查拉并肩首发防守。

He makes his NHL debut at 19 years old, two days after the BU playoffs end in the NHL against the Ottawa senators in the playoffs standing next to Zadano Chara starting the game on defense.

对吧？

Right?

他在球队2-1胜利的比赛中贡献了全队第二高的上场时间，而且他刚在2021年签下了8年7600万美元的续约合同。

He logs this team's second highest ice time in their two one victory, and he just signed an eight year $76,000,000 extension in 2021.

对这个年轻人来说，这已经是相当不错的NHL职业生涯了，你不觉得吗？

That's a pretty solid NHL career so far for the young man, wouldn't you say?

那是800万什么？

That's 8,000,000 what is it?

8年7600万。

Eight years, 76,000,000.

是啊。

Yeah.

是啊。

Yeah.

那相当不错了。

That's pretty good.

那可是相当丰厚啊。

That's pretty fat.

而他也就22岁左右吧。

And he's all of, like, 22 years old Yeah.

现在。

Right now.

所以我觉得他已经为成功铺好路了。

So I think he's he's set up for success.

鲍勃，现在咱们聊聊你吧。

Bob, let's talk about you right now.

告诉我们你是从哪儿来的。

Tell us where you're coming from.

跟我们说说你的职业发展轨迹，以及你现在在贵金属领域的专长。

Tell us what your tell us about the arc of your career, and tell us about your expertise in precious metals today.

我们准备在这期播客里把你剖析个透彻。

We are going to tear you apart in this podcast.

当然。

Sure.

当然。

Sure.

嗯，这大概是我听过最棒的一期播客开场白了。

Well, that that's probably one of the best intros to a a numbered podcast I've ever heard.

所以

So

太棒了。

Awesome.

我们正在尽力而为。

We're trying our best here.

当然。

Sure.

是的。

Yeah.

我来自我们位于爱达荷州楠帕市的仓库，这个城市虽然是该州第二大城市，但可能很多人都没听说过。

I'm I'm coming from our depository here in town a city called Nampa, Idaho, which actually is the second largest city in Idaho that probably no one's ever heard.

嗯。

Mhmm.

不过，是的，我们运营着一家全方位服务的仓储机构。

But, yeah, we run a a full service depository.

我们管理着价值约12亿美元的资产。

We store about 1,200,000,000.0 in assets.

我还经营着一家专注于贵金属的对冲基金。

I also run a hedge fund in precious metals.

所有金属实物都存放在设施外部。

It's all physical metal held outside the facility.

因此，我们还参与金属的买卖，不仅面向零售客户，还包括高净值及超高净值人群。

So and then we also are involved with buying and selling metals, not only to retail, but high net worth, ultra high net worth.

我们的物流服务不仅覆盖美国本土，还遍布全球。

We do logistics not only here in The US, but around the world.

您享有全额保险保障。

You're fully insured.

我们还配备了全保险装甲运输车辆。

We have the fully insured armored trucks as well.

在金属业务领域，我们涉足广泛，几乎涵盖所有相关环节。

So we do a lot of stuff when it comes to metals, kinda touch all facets of it.

这也是为什么全球有许多人关注我——我们不只是像某些交易商那样鼓吹世界末日或美元崩溃，而是更注重市场结构等实质性分析。

And that's one of the reasons why I think a lot of people follow me around the world is it's done not just a, you know, a dealer promoting, you know, the end of the world or the end of the dollar, but, you know, I look at more of the market structure, things like that.

因为我自1992年就进入这一行业了。

Because I've been in the business since 1992.

我的职业生涯始于迪恩·威特公司，确切地说是在1993年初。

Started my career with Dean Witter back in, I think actually, early ninety three, actually.

自那以后就一直关注市场动态。

And then had just been following the markets ever since.

你在Dean Witter具体负责什么工作？

What were you doing for Dean Witter?

你最初是以什么职位加入他们的？

What capacity did you start with them?

更多是从事顾问方面的工作。

More on the on the advisory side.

不过我其实做过很多不同类型的工作。

So it's but I I I kind of did a lot of different things.

要知道在九十年代初那会儿，我们还在用Quotron机器交易股票，商品经纪人的办公室里贴满了各种走势图之类的。

You know, back in the early nineties when you still had Quotron machines, you know, you were actually still trading stocks, and we had the commodities broker with all the charts plastered all over the walls and things like that.

是的，那时候我们做大量的大宗交易，直接打电话到纽约交易所的交易台下单，和现在这种点击鼠标就能完成交易的环境完全不同。

So, yeah, you get a chance you know, I I did a lot of sort of block trading, where we called right to the desk, to the New York floor or so, you know, a lot different environment, obviously, than we are today where everything's point and click.

但这种经历让我有机会接触到很多行业老手。

But it it kinda gave you a, you know, an an opportunity to talk to a lot of veterans.

你知道菲尔·罗斯是业内顶尖的技术策略师之一。

You know, Phil Roth as a technical strategist, one of the best in the industry.

我是说，那边有非常深厚的底蕴，你能学到很多东西。

I mean, just a lot of great depth over there, and you learned a lot.

是啊。

Yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

那确实是个接受良好教育的绝佳环境。

That is a breeding ground for a good education for sure.

跟我们说说你的对冲基金吧。

Tell us about your hedge fund.

叫什么名字？

What's it called?

它是专门投资实物金属的吗？

And it is all about investing in physical metal?

是的。

Yeah.

重点是实物金属。

The focus is physical metals.

美元与美分增长基金。

Dollars and cents growth fund.

我管理的资产规模大约在1.85亿至1.9亿美元之间。

It's about 185, a $190,000,000 in assets that I manage.

基本结构是约74%的实物白银、24%的实物黄金，以及3%的实物铂金——这部分是我今年三月到四月初追加的。

The the basically, the structure is about 74% physical silver, about 24% physical gold, and about 3% physical platinum, which I added back in March and early April this year.

所以基本上精准抄底在了900多美元的价位。

So kinda nailed that that bottom right in the 9 hundreds.

但重申一次，这确实是更偏向长期投资的配置。

And so so it but but, again, it's it's really tinged for longer term type of investing.

要知道，当你持有实物金属时，所有头寸都是用现金全额支付的。

So, you know, when you own physical metal, you don't and it's all paid for in cash.

没有使用杠杆。

There's no leverage.

我不做对冲。

I don't hedge.

因此今年让我能充分把握市场波动的机会。

So it's allowed me to take full advantage of this this market movement this year.

但这样设计其实是因为——我2008年创办了托管业务，早在2006年就开始关注金属市场，当时就预见到市场泡沫化等问题。

But it's designed to actually because part of what I've done I started the depository business back in 2008, and I was looking at the metals for you know, about 2006 is when I started looking at, you know, the melt up of the markets and everything.

我当时就觉得这种情况不会有好结果。

I was like, this is not gonna end well.

必须在金融体系之外持有某种金融资产。

You gotta have something outside the financial system as a financial asset.

黄金白银是最合理的选择，因为它们有五千年的历史背书。

Gold and silver made the most sense because it has five thousand years of history.

要知道，那时候比特币还不存在。

You know, Bitcoin wasn't around then.

因此，作为一个金融从业者，我所关注的是对手方风险和系统性风险，直接持有实物金属或与保管机构建立直接关系对我来说是最合理的选择。

So so what I looked at was counterparty and systemic risk and owning physical metal directly or having a direct relationship with the depository made the most sense to me as a as a finance guy.

所以我基本上创办了自己的保管机构。

So I basically started my own depository.

我在行业中注意到，至今仍是如此，我认为我是全国唯一一家不由黄金交易商、金融机构或现金运输公司拥有或关联的保管机构。

What I noticed in the industry, and it's still true today, I think I'm the only depository in the country that is not owned by or associated with a gold dealer, financial institution, or a cash in transit company.

因此，我并不依赖于交易业务，而大多数其他保管机构都是这样设立的。

So it's I'm not predicated on transactional business, whereas that's how most other depositories are set up.

它们更像是母公司获取交易加价等收益的诱饵，这些收益反过来滋养了它们的交易收入。

They're they're sort of a carrot for their parent company to grab the transactional, markups and things like that that that sort of feed their their their transactional revenue.

所以我更多是从减少利益冲突的角度来看待这个问题。

So so I looked at this more of reducing conflict of interest.

作为一名顾问，我审视了诸多风险。

I looked at so many risks as a as an adviser and so forth.

当你承担受托责任时，你必须首先运用风险管理，然后在此基础上构建业务。

And when you have a fiduciary responsibility, you kinda have to use risk management first and then, you know, build a business around that.

因此，你看，消除持续经营风险以及当市场低迷、经济崩溃或市场崩盘时可能出现的所有情况，无论是什么原因，交易量开始急剧萎缩——这在金属行业相当常见。

So, you know, removing going concern risk and everything that could come when you have a downturn in the market or the economy drops out of bed or the markets crash, whatever it may be, and transactional volume starts to dry up, you know, rather sharply, which happens in the metals industries quite quite a bit.

它遵循一定的周期规律。

There's a cycle that it follows.

是的。

Yeah.

当人们储存金属时，这对买卖金属的运营层面完全没有影响。

When people are storing metals, that has no impact whatsoever, to the operational side of buying and selling metals.

我有个问题。

I I got a question.

你刚才说大约70%是白银，20%是黄金。

So you said, like, 70 something percent silver and 20 something percent gold.

大多数人通常比例是相反的。

Most people usually have that the other way around.

为什么白银配置比例这么高？

Why the big allocation to silver?

是的。

Yeah.

我开始转向另一个方向。

I I started to whip the other direction.

2020年之前，黄金占很大比重。

Prior to 2020, it was heavily weighted to gold.

然后到了2020年，金银比率突然飙升到125:1。

Then those all of a sudden, by 2020, you had the gold silver ratio blow out to a 125 to one.

所以我当时就开始卖出黄金买入白银，就是因为这个比率。

So I started selling gold back then buying silver due to the ratios.

而现在这个比率仍在79到80:1左右。

And now you're still about 79, 80 to one right now.

所以你看，很多人会说白银不是在十月份就见顶了吗？

So we you know, a lot of people say, well, you know, didn't silver just top, you know, in October?

它突破了历史新高，然后又回调了。

You know, broke out, it's a new all time high, and then it pulled back.

日线图上刚刚形成了一个双顶形态。

You got a double top that just created on the daily charts.

而且...而且...你知道，我学会了保持极简原则。

And and and, you know, I've learned to keep it really simple.

我一直奉行一个座右铭。

I've kinda lived by a motto.

如果一个投资理念无法写在名片背面，那它就不值得投资。

If you can't write the idea on the back of a business card, it's not worth investing in.

看看白银走势，我从未见过金银比在80:1时白银价格见顶的情况。

And if you look at silver, I've never seen silver price top when the gold silver ratio was at 80 to one.

通常白银会跌至30:1，甚至更低，那时才会出现白银的终极暴涨和那种高潮式顶部。

You know, typically, silver will get down to 30 to one or, you know, even lower than that when you get that ultimate spike in silver and and you get that that sort of crescendo top.

我认为我们还没看到那种情况。

I don't think we've seen that yet.

非常有趣。

Very interesting.

如果我投资你的基金，我的对账单会是什么样？

If I invest in your fund, what does my statement look like?

是不是显示我持有70%白银和20%到30%黄金，这就是它的价值，而且我绑定的是实物资产？

Does it look like I just own 70% of silver and 20% 30% of gold and that's the value of it and I am tied to actual physical?

这样理解对吗？

Is that thinking about it the right way?

对。

Yeah.

这...这是典型的Reg D第506条豁免发行。

It it it's I mean, it's it's it's a typical reg d section five zero six offering.

就是普通的对冲基金模式。

So it's your typical hedge fund.

你会收到对账单。

You get a statement.

上面只显示价值。

It just shows the value.

你知道，我会提供投资组合构成。

You know, I give the portfolio makeup.

我会为投资客户每月发布一份通讯简报。

I do a a monthly newsletter for for investment clients.

而且我会给出支持或投资于该基金的比例结构的详细分析。

But the and I give a sort of a breakdown of the percentage structure that's supporting or invested in the fund.

但它的独特之处在于，该基金实际上不仅可以以现金或实物金属形式进行分配，因为这些金属...我其实不参与那种游戏，嘿。

But it's unique because the fund actually can not only make distributions in cash or in physical metal because the metals I I don't really play the game of, hey.

我只购买一千盎司的银条和四百盎司的金条。

I only buy a thousand ounce silver bars and 400 ounce gold bars.

我持有的黄金，最大不超过一公斤的金条，最小到一克。

I own a gold, nothing larger than a kilo bar and as small as a gram.

在白银方面，我们持有一千盎司的银条，但也持有小至零碎硬币的白银。

On the silver side, we own thousand ounce bars, but we also own silver as small as junk coin.

所以我...我可以提供交割，抱歉。

So I I I can provide delivery sorry.

我可以提供已持有小规格产品的交付，这在某些情况下尤为重要，尤其是当市场供应紧张时，特别是针对不同产品时，我就不必再寄出千盎司银条，去找精炼厂或顾问说，嘿。

I can provide delivery in already own small form, which is which is in in certain instances, especially when you get tightness in the market, especially with different products, I don't have to then send out thousand ounce bars, go to a refiner or a mentor and say, hey.

听着。

Listen.

你能把这个铸成一盎司的圆币并支付额外费用之类的吗？

Can you convert this into one ounce rounds and pay an upcharge and that type of thing?

所以这提供了更大的灵活性。

So it allows a lot more flexibility.

这是全球唯一一个实物金属基金，作为投保方被纳入保管库的全险保单中。

It's the only fund in the world, physical metals fund, that is tied that's an insured party on the all risk policy of the depository.

没有其他基金、信托、封闭式基金或ETF能做出这样的声明。

No other fund, trust, close end fund, ETF can make that statement.

那么你能再详细解释一下吗？

And so it's Can you break that down for me again?

我想为我自己和听众们再慢慢梳理一遍，因为这听起来像是你们基金的一个非常重要的特点。

I just wanna go over that a little bit slower both for myself and for our listeners because that sounds really like, a really important factor about your fund.

是的。

Yeah.

这关乎风险管理。

It's about risk management.

大多数基金或ETF、封闭式基金、信托等，它们只是...你知道，它们有关系。

So most funds out there or ETFs, closed end funds, trusts, things like that, simply take the you know, they they they have a relationship.

它们会去找第三方，比如布林克斯或加拿大世界这类公司，把金属存放在那里。

They go to a third party like, you know, Brinks or World Canadian, whatever it may be, and they park their metal there.

它们利用这些公司的名气和信誉。

And they use that name for credibility and and sort of the the prominence of of those companies.

但它们其实依赖于保管机构的运营来判断自己是否获得全额保险。

But they're not they they rely on the depository and their operations to determine, okay, am I fully insured?

这些保管机构有什么类型的保险政策？

What kind of insurance policy do they have?

保险覆盖范围包括哪些？

What does it cover?

有哪些除外条款？

What are the exclusions?

他们对这些完全没有监督权。

They have no oversight with that.

他们只需前往托管机构，并基本依赖托管机构的判断来决定‘我想投保多少金额’。

They simply just have to go to the depository and and and they kind of rely on the depository's discretion of, okay, how much do I wanna insure?

因为在这个行业里，普遍存在投保不足的情况，同时设置高免赔额来降低保费，毕竟保险费是托管机构最大的成本之一。

Because in this industry, it's very common to over to under insure your exposure and at the same time have very high deductibles to lower that insurance premium because the insurance premium is the one of the biggest costs of a depository.

这样一来，如果你的投保金额不足或免赔额过高，任何损失都可能演变成灾难性后果，危及托管机构的持续经营。

And and by doing that, you start to if you're if you're under insuring your exposure or have or have very high deductibles, all of a sudden, any losses could become catastrophic or crimp the the the the going concern of that depository.

所以我在2008年6月研究完这些情况后意识到，唯一的防范办法就是自己开设托管机构。

So I looked at all that back in 06/2008, and I was like, well, the only way to thwart that is to open up my own depository.

而且你也知道类似案例，比如2022年特拉华州的第一州托管机构。

And and you've had instances like First State Depository out in Delaware in 2022.

他们被美国商品期货交易委员会勒令关闭了。

They got shut down by the CFTC.

我认为损失大约在1.15亿美元左右，本质上这是一家由母公司或个人所有的保管机构，该所有者同时经营一家黄金经销公司，十年来一直在暗中转移客户保险箱中的金属。

I think it's about a $115,000,000 in losses where, basically, it was a depository owned by a parent company that was or owned by an individual who also owned a gold dealership and was basically siphoning metals out of people's boxes for ten years.

这是美国历史上最大规模的保管机构损失案。

It's the largest depository loss in US history.

我的意思是，这简直太惊人了。

I mean, it's just enormous.

是的。

Yep.

而这还是所谓的隔离存储。

And that was so called segregated storage.

该损失现已演变成集体诉讼，牵涉到一家大型IRA贵金属托管机构或自主IRA托管机构，该机构与贵金属业务有关联。

That loss has now filtered into a class action suit bringing bringing in an a very large IRA precious metals custodian or self directed IRA custodian that is involved with precious metals.

你开始看到这个行业的裂痕，那些定价过高的经销商，通过黄金IRA等产品出售溢价极高的商品。

You're starting to see the cracks in the industry as as sort of these overpriced dealers, you know, with these gold IRAs and so forth selling very highly marked up product.

要知道，只要价格持续上涨，每个人都以为自己赚到了钱。

You know, as long as the prices go up, everyone thinks they're making money.

但实际情况是，当人们意识到时，他们会想：等等，

But what's happening is when people go to realize, well, wait a second.

我付的钱太多了。

I paid way too much.

或者以加州的牛津黄金集团为例，这家黄金交易商收取客户资金后，根本未购买任何金属，据称将钱据为己有，客户一无所有。

Or in in the case of Oxford Gold Group in California, they that was a gold dealer that was taking in money, never bought metal at all, and basically or allegedly pocketed the money and the clients own nothing.

所以现在这些客户也在通过集体诉讼追讨另一家超大型IRA托管机构。

So now those clients are going after another very, very large IRA custodian in a class action suit there as well.

所以在购买金属时，人们需要警惕很多潜在的风险。

And so it it you there are a lot of landmines that people need to sort of be aware of when they're buying metals.

你知道，如何存储和持有可能比为什么存储或为什么持有更重要。

You know, how they store it, how they hold it is probably more important than why they store it or why they hold it.

老兄，这真的很有趣，里面有很多值得探讨的内容。

Man, that's really interesting and a lot to unpack there.

JD，你在想什么？

JD, what are you thinking about?

你的保险费用是多少？

How much does your insurance cost?

我...我没有...是每年100个基点还是200个基点？

I have I have no is it a is it a 100 basis points a year, 200?

比如，具体是多少？

Like, what is it?

费用是多少？

What does it cost?

是的。

Yeah.

我们不能透露这些信息。

We can't divulge that information.

是的。

Yeah.

你必须非常小心，因为劳合社或者我们...举个例子，我们不能把保单发到机构外部。

You you gotta be very careful because Lloyd's has or the we have we for example, we can't send out the the policy outside the facility.

人们可以来机构阅读保单，但我们必须遵守的条款并不一定会危及保单安全。

People can come to the facility and read the policy, but there's but there's provisions that we have to follow that doesn't necessarily put the policy in jeopardy.

抱歉拐弯抹角了，但这件事确实属于不可谈论的范畴。

Sorry to beat around the bush there, but it's it's just something that it's one of those things you you just can't talk about.

比如我们的保单，在12亿美元的保额中有1万美元免赔额，这意味着如果明天被盗1亿美元，不是每个账户赔1万。

But we for example, our policy, we have a $10,000 deductible on a $1,200,000,000 policy, meaning, you know, if a 100,000,000 got stolen tomorrow, it's not 10,000 per account.

而是针对那1亿美元的损失总共只赔1万。

It's 10,000 period on that $100,000,000 loss.

我这样做纯粹是为了表明态度。

And I do that for the sole reason of saying, listen.

我不希望Vaults（我的托管机构）面临现金流问题——1万美元很容易筹措，相比之下，若设置25万美元免赔额就像在赌博。特别是像COMEX这类存储数十亿资产的机构，他们可能只有10亿美元的全风险保单，实际保额可能只覆盖单次损失中的10亿资产。

I don't want I don't want Vaults, which is my depository, to have any potential cash flow concern $10,000 is extremely easy to meet versus trying to play the game of having a $250,000 deductible or maybe like in in the case with a lot of these depositories with especially with COMEX, they store billions of dollars of assets, but they may have only a $1,000,000,000 all risk policy that covers only maybe $1,000,000,000 worth of assets any given loss.

如果你存储着50.6亿或70亿美元资产却遭遇重大损失，人们可能并未获得他们想象中的全额保障。

And if you're storing $5.06, $7,000,000,000 in assets and you have a major loss, you you know, people may not be fully insured to the point that they think they are.

这再次说明，我们正努力为客户降低风险——

And that's, again, you're trying to reduce risk for the client that says, listen.

我已经购买了这些金属。

I already bought these metals.

现在我委托你来保管这些金属。

Now I'm entrusting you to to safeguard those metals.

而保管不仅意味着保护金属本身，还包括客户信息的安全，以及全面保障金属免受任何潜在风险。

And safeguarding means not only just protecting the metals, but also the client information as well as fully ensuring and protecting the metals against, you know, any risk possible.

要知道，我们确实面临各种风险。

You know, we have risks.

我们的保单涵盖了例如神秘失踪、员工盗窃等通常被许多全险保单排除在外的典型情况。

Our our our policy covers mysterious disappearance, for example, employee theft, which are typical exclusions in many all risk policies.

所以当你听到全险保单这个术语时，它并不意味着覆盖所有风险。

So when you hear the term all risk policy, it doesn't mean it covers every risk.

虽然存在免赔条款，但如果你有良好的记录等条件，现在更容易让某些例外或免赔项目获得承保。

There are exclusions, but, there's if you, you know, if you have a stellar record and so forth, it's easier to get some of these exceptions now covered or exclusions covered.

哇。

Wow.

听起来你对基金的结构考虑得非常周全，伙计。

It sounds like you've got a very well thought out structure to the fund, man.

恭喜你做到了这一点。

Congratulations on that.

你做了很多调研，发现了所有薄弱环节并逐一填补。

You kicked a lot of tires and you saw where all the weak points were and you kinda filled them in.

这做得真的很棒。

That was really well done.

鲍勃，我们来聊点更时下热门的话题吧。

Let's talk about something that's a little bit more topical right now, Bob.

我想听听你分析即将到来的SLV期权到期可能带来的影响。

I wanna hear you unpack what is potentially going on with the SLV options expiration coming up.

你一直在推特上讨论这个话题。

You you've been tweeting about that.

看起来如果结算价超过50美元，可能会有大量SLV股票被创设。

It looks like there could be a large creation of SLV stock if we settle above $50.

你能详细说说现在这件事的进展吗？

Can you just unpack what's going on with that story right now?

你认为这对白银市场意味着什么？

And what do you think it means for the silver market, please?

是的。

Yeah.

我想很多人可能没意识到期权市场——你们可能比任何人都更了解这一点。

I I think a lot of people may not realize that the options market and you guys probably know this better than anybody.

我是说，过去几年它在结构化产品创设和期权市场方面发展迅猛。

I mean, it's grown so much over the last couple years in terms of structured product creation, options markets.

你看，Robinhood这类平台让普通散户也能通过电脑操作各种复杂策略——但以SLV为例，人们可能不理解期权市场如何影响贵金属领域的运作机制。

You know, you have Robinhood creating these sophisticated platforms where people you know, the normal retail guy can now do these, you know, crazy types of strategies right from their their computer, which but with with SLV, for example, what people may not be may not understand is the the dynamics of how the options market has come into the precious metals world.

SLV（可能有人不知道这个代码）实际上是iShares白银信托基金，全球最大的白银ETF。

And SLV, which happens to be the iShares silver trust for those that that may not know the symbol, basically, it's the largest silver ETF in the world.

它被机构广泛用于指数化投资，券商用它创设结构化产品工具、对冲策略、缓冲票据等各种复杂的金融衍生品。

It's heavily used for indexing by institutions, for structured product vehicles, by by broker dealers, creating hedging strategies, buffered notes, and all these different kind of crazy structured products.

但与此同时，市场上也有大量散户的看涨和看跌期权买入。

But at the same time, there is a lot of retail call and and put buying that comes into the market.

我在六月份就注意到这个模式：每逢期权到期周，无论市场走势如何——上涨也好，其他情况也罢——那周都完全没有任何份额增发。

And and as I started seeing this back in June where you got a pattern that every option expiration week, during that week, no matter what the market was doing, if it was going up or whatever it may be, there was no share creation whatsoever.

而该周的卖空活动却开始增加。

And the short selling activity started to increase during that week.

然后神奇的是，到期后的第一个周一，突然就有大量份额被增发出来。

And then magically, by the following Monday after expiration, all of a sudden, had big issuance of shares created.

这意味着——对于不了解ETF运作机制的人解释一下——当市场需要增发份额时，授权参与机构（他们负责份额的创设与赎回）

And meaning, when the authorized participant, for those that don't understand how ETFs work, when when in order to create more shares for the market, the the authorized participant, which has you know, they're the ones that create and redeem shares.

要创设这些份额篮子，他们必须向该ETF交付标的资产。

In order to create those baskets, they have to deliver the underlying asset to that ETF.

就SLV而言，标的资产就是实物白银。

So in in the SLV's case, it's physical silver.

所以他们要么持有实物白银库存，要么需要去市场上获取白银。

So they they, you know, have an inventory of physical silver or they go out and get the silver.

他们将实物白银交付给ETF，然后ETF向授权参与者发行份额。

They deliver it to the ETF, and then the ETF issue shares to the authorized participant.

如果你作为做市商增加了卖空活动，比如这种情况——再次声明，这些都是推测性的，我们只是单纯看数据。

Well, if you're increasing short selling activity as a market maker, for example and this is, again, all alleged you know, this is just simply looking at numbers.

要知道，仅通过观察数据是无法判定真实意图的。

You know, you can't determine intent by just watching numbers.

但如果你观察正在发生的卖空活动，通常都是在监管展示规则下的裸卖空，这允许做市商通过卖空来维持有序市场。

But if you look at the short selling activity that's happening, typically, is naked selling usually usually under reg show, allowing market makers to make it short in order to create an orderly market.

如果卖空活动确实激增到自六月以来每个期权到期周都持续出现的程度——尤其价格还在上涨时——你或许可以提出质疑：

Well, if they're if the selling activity is really picking up to a point where it's consistent every single option expiration week since June as prices have been rising, you can maybe make a case that, hey.

等等，

Wait a second.

他们可能通过以下方式阻碍白银价格或SLV的运作，以及白银市场本身：通过满足公众的买入需求（无论是看涨期权买入还是份额买入），实际上却向市场卖空他们并不持有的份额。

They're potentially hampering the silver price or the the operations of SLV and and and the silver market itself by beating that demand for buying, you know, whether it's call buying or or buying of shares by the public and and meeting that demand by actually shorting shares that they don't have into the market.

期权市场的另一个影响是所谓的伽马挤压，通常发生在交易商做空看涨期权时——公众买入看涨期权，交易商将这些期权卖给公众后，他们可能只用部分标的资产进行对冲，因为知道...

Another impact with the options market is a term called gamma squeeze, which typically happens when, you know, dealers who are short calls, you know, the public buys calls, the dealer sells those calls to the public, they go ahead and hedge with maybe a portion of underlying because knowing that, hey.

听着。

Listen.

大多数看涨期权最终都一文不值。

Most calls expire worthless.

我不需要对冲策略做到一比一对应。

I don't need to go one to one relationship on a hedging strategy.

我只需要持有一定数量的对冲头寸，突然间就全变成数学问题了。

I just need to have a certain amount to hedge, and then all of a sudden, it's all math.

他们在计算这些看涨期权可能被行权、变为价内期权等的概率。

They're looking at the probabilities of potentially those calls being exercised, going in the money, and so forth.

10月份非常明显的伽马挤压现象，就是当期权溢价波动率与价格同步上升时出现的情况。

Well, the gamma squeeze, which was very evident in October, was is a is a situation where volatility starts to rise on the on the option premium as well as the prices going higher at the same time.

而在金属市场中，波动率与价格走势呈现出非常有趣的动态关系。

And in the metals markets, we have a very interesting dynamic with volatility and price action.

通常情况下，当标普500指数波动率上升时，往往意味着...

When pry typically, when volatility goes up in the S and P 500, that usually means, hey.

听着。

Listen.

市场正在下跌。

The market's going down.

在金属市场中，大约从2022、2023年开始，当波动性上升时，价格也同步上涨。

Well, in the in the metals market since about 2022, 2023, when volatility rises, the prices are rising at the same time.

所以当你作为做空看涨期权的交易商时，突然价格和波动率溢价同时上涨，这意味着看涨期权的价值实际上因波动率溢价和内在价值而加速上升。

So when you're a dealer whose short calls and all of a sudden, the price is going up as well as the the the volatility premium is going up, meaning that the call option is actually accelerating higher in value due to the to the the volatility premium and the intrinsic value.

他们必须出去购买更多标的股票进行对冲，因为如果这些期权变成价内期权，他们将面临看涨期权买方行权并要求交割标的资产的风险。

They have to go out and buy more underlying shares to to hedge because at some point, if those share if those options become in the money, they run the risk of of that call buyer exercising those those calls and and wanting to take delivery of the underlying.

那么你实际上让交易商处于潜在的做空状态。

So then you're leaving the dealer short potentially.

所以这就是为什么你说交易商需要平仓某些头寸。

So that's why you're saying the dealer has to cover something.

但我不明白的是，这种大规模、复杂的情况究竟是如何运作的。

But what I don't understand is how does this sort of big, gigantic I dunno.

这么大的股票空头头寸如果不买入更多白银，是如何被平仓的？

How does this big short in the shares get covered without buying more silver?

嗯，这就是问题所在——根据卖空规则，你大概有30天左右的时间来处理交割失败的情况，比如...这正是我账号下那篇帖子讨论的核心内容。

Well, that's that's the part where, you're it under, the short selling rules, you're allowed up to, I think, thirty days or so to if if you have a fail to deliver, for example and and this is where a lot of this came from on the on the the the post that I that I just put under my account.

十月份的交割失败情况异常严重。

The fails to deliver in October were extraordinary.

我是说，就我所知，那只白银ETF从未出现过这种情况。

I mean, it had never been seen in that silver ETF that I know of.

这简直可以载入史册。

I mean, it's very historic.

我不但写了相关分析文章。

I I not only wrote about it.

确实如此。

It's yeah.

没错。

Yeah.

你会遇到单日事件，出现交割失败和价格飙升，然后又会回落。

They're you're gonna have one day events with a fail to deliver and a spike, and then it and then it settles back down.

但我开始关注并成为最早真正注意到这一点的人之一，就是做空股票的借贷费用。

But what I started following and was one of the first to actually really notice this was the borrowing fees to short shares.

我密切关注这一指标，它在夏季开始攀升，并在十月达到高潮。

I watched that very closely, and that started to to rise through the summer and and and crescendoed in October.

SLV股票的年度借贷费率最高达到了约20%，这非常惊人。

And the the the annual fee rate to borrow SLV shares was up to up up to about 20%, which is enormous.

通常这个数字年化后只有0.4%左右。

I mean, usually, this thing is at, you know, point 0.4% on an annualized basis.

所以情况变得异常紧张，有些日子根本借不到股票。

So this thing got extremely tight, and there were days that were absolutely no shares available to borrow.

我每天都在发布这些动态。

And I was posting this stuff every single day.

真的，如果你翻看我的账户动态，就像一本日记，记录着我对白银走势的预测与实际发生的情况，这些让我思考事情为何以及如何发生。

Literally, my if you go back on my account feed, it's like a diary of what I expected silver to do and what was actually happening that that made me think why why was things happening and how were they happening.

我基本上就是每天把这些情况记录下来。

I was basically just writing it all out on a day to day basis.

所以这与做空交易的联系在于，如果你能通过裸卖空来满足需求，并可能在随后几天完成这些交易的结算。

So so so it it's where where this thing starts to tie in with short selling is if you can meet demand, by naked short selling, and then potentially settling those trades, you know, the the following days.

这种需求突然出现，就像消防车开到着火的房子前，用消防水管往上面浇水一样。

That demand, all of a sudden, is like a it's kinda like a, you know, a fire truck going up to a house that's on fire and dumping water on it with a fire hose.

你正在扑灭那种压力或那种火焰。

You're putting out that sort of pressure or that or that that blaze.

而那种火焰，可以把它看作是抢购行为，或者看作是白银上涨引发的购买兴趣。

And that blaze, think of it as coal buying or think of it as buying interest for silver because silver's running up.

突然间，在这个市场中，动量交易者会加入交易，表现良好的资产会吸引更多资金流入。

And all of a sudden, you know, the you know, in this market, you know, you get momentum traders jumping on on on the trade and, you know, more money you know, a good performing asset attracts more money.

随着资产表现越来越好，它会吸引更多资金。

And as that asset performs even better, it attracts more money.

于是你就看到了这种逐渐增强的态势。

And so you get this crescendo.

为了试图扑灭这种需求，你完全可以通过裸卖空股票来满足。

Well, in order to try to put that out, you can meet that demand by just naked shorting shares if you wanted to.

突然间，你就不必去找授权参与者说：听着。

And then all of a sudden, you're not actually having to go to the authorized participants saying, listen.

我们现在需要创建股票，因为我的账面上，你知道，缺了这么多股票。

We need to create shares right now because I'm, you know, I'm short on my books, you know, whatever amount of shares.

他们可以暂缓股票创建，这意味着股票创建不需要对实物白银产生需求。

You know, they could just hold off on share creation, which means that share creation doesn't need to put demand on physical silver.

突然间，你就能稍微控制住火势了。

And all of a sudden, you can kinda put the fire out a little bit.

如果你观察这段时间的伦敦市场，会发现白银市场非常紧张。

And and if you look at London during this whole time, London's market was very tight on silver.

租赁利率正在飙升。

It lease rates were spiking.

融资成本不断上涨。

Financing costs were going up.

纽约期货市场与伦敦现货价格出现了巨大的倒挂现象，意思是大约2美元左右。

You had this huge backwardation in the futures markets in New York to the to the London spot price, meaning it was about 2 yeah.

在某些时候，价差甚至达到2.02美元或2.50美元低于现货价，意味着近月期货合约出现这种情况——我从未见过如此大幅度的倒挂。

At some point, it was, like, $2.02 50 under $2.50 under spot, meaning the lead month futures contract, which has never been I've never seen that before.

是啊。

Yeah.

特别是考虑到当时利率在4%左右的情况下，出现如此大幅度的倒挂。

That much of a backwardation, especially with the interest rates at, you know, 4% or so.

这充分显示了市场供应极度紧张。

And so it was showing a great degree of tightness.

本质上，金属存放位置错位——本该在伦敦的银却囤积在纽约。

Basically, metal was in the in the wrong location, and it was in New York instead of in in London.

是的，我可以详细解释这种情况的成因。

And and, yeah, and I can go through why that happened.

JD，你能帮我处理这个吗？

JD, can you help me with this?

我们是否需要对白银ETF的运作、份额创建却无需实物交割的现象持阴谋论态度？还是说这就是我们面临的现状，只能接受？

Do we need to be conspiratorial about what is going on with the silver ETF and the creation of the shares and not having to deliver physical silver, or is this just the dynamic that we're left with and just deal with it?

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

比如，我不知道该怎么看待这件事。

Like, I don't know how to look at it.

市面上充斥着各种阴谋论，比如摩根大通存在巨额裸空头之类的说法。

There's all these conspiracy theories about the huge naked short at JPMorgan and things like that.

我们该如何理解这种无需交割白银就能创建ETF空头的情况？

What's what how do we look at this ETF short creation without having to deliver silver?

不。

No.

我是说，2005年在雷曼工作时，世界黄金协会有人来公司找我谈话，说他们正在筹备一个实物黄金ETF。

I mean, you know, when I was at Lehman in 2005, there was this guy from the World Gold Council that came to the firm and spoke with me and said he was starting a gold ETF, a physical gold ETF.

嗯。

Mhmm.

他希望雷曼成为授权参与商。

And he wanted Lehman to be an authorized participant.

对吧？

Right?

嗯。

Mhmm.

你看，虽然这是二十年前的事了，但我仔细研读了那份授权参与协议，足足150页，我用放大镜逐字检查过，简直无懈可击。

So, now look, this is twenty years ago, but you know I sat down with that AP agreement and it was about a 150 pages and I went through with a fine tooth comb and I'm like this is is bulletproof.

我必须完全认可这份协议，才能代表雷曼签署成为授权参与商。这里头根本没有什么阴谋。

Like this is you know, I had to get comfortable with it in order to sign up Lehman as an AP and yeah, there's there's no conspiracies here.

好吧。

Okay.

没有。

No.

这就是我想听的。

That's all I wanted to hear.

你知道，我只是想弄清楚那个重叠点在哪里。

You know, I'm trying to I'm just trying to figure out where that overlap is.

你明白我的意思吗？

You know what I mean?

就像，我们刚刚经历了白银明显上涨的情况，因为

Like, we just went through this situation where silver clearly rallied because they're

话虽如此，未来某个时间点，GLD或SOV或其他任何ETF，都有可能因为鲍勃提到的某些原因，出现ETF与现货价格的分歧。

Having having having said that, there is a possibility at some point in the future that either GLD or SOV or any of the any of the other ETFs where you have a divergence between the ETF and spot for some of the reasons that Bob is talking about.

对吧？

Right?

就像，确实有可能出现那种分歧，人们会说，嘿。

Like, it is possible that, you know, you could have that divergence and people say, hey.

比如，ETF上涨了1%，但现货上涨了3%。

Like, the ETF is up 1%, but spot is up 3%.

为什么会这样？

Why is that happening?