The MAD Podcast: How AI Gets Built — with Matt Turck - 如何构建长周期 AI 智能体 — Mitch Troyanovsky, Basis 封面

如何构建长周期 AI 智能体 — Mitch Troyanovsky, Basis

How to Build Long-Horizon AI Agents — Mitch Troyanovsky, Basis

本集简介

AI 智能体可以连续数小时编写代码,但一旦要求它们在现实经济中完成实际工作,它们就会崩溃。Mitch Troyanovsky 是独角兽 AI 公司 Basis 的联合创始人,该公司的智能体能够自主运行数小时——有时甚至长达数天——独立完成复杂的税务申报全流程。他解决可靠性问题的方案是:停止对结果进行评分,转而开始监督过程。 这是一期关于构建长周期 AI 智能体的权威参考式对话。Mitch 回顾了完整的发展历史——从 ReAct 和 AutoGPT 的崩盘,到推理模型和 RLVR(基于验证的强化学习)——并解释了为何行业在 2023 年放弃了过程监督,以及为何如今它以完全不同的规模卷土重来。我们深入探讨了行为规范、Basis 刚刚与 Braintrust 联合发布的开放标准(用于定义和评估智能体在整个轨迹中的行为,无需真实标签),以及为什么上下文实际上是运行时训练数据、为什么文档必须像代码库一样对待、本体论作为“智能体生存的世界”、法官即智能体架构、为什么 Basis 招聘哲学专业毕业生担任语言架构师、将智能体部署为“入职培训的 300 名聪明外星员工”,以及 Mitch 对于“痛苦教训”何时吞噬控制框架的预测。 (01:09) 为什么基础工程师会对他们的智能体低声耳语 (04:12) 会计即压缩:经济上层的智能层 (06:11) 定义长视界:何时超出上下文窗口 (08:24) 多日自主轨迹的解剖 (10:19) 交接设计:为审核者优化输出 (11:17) ReAct 与推理为何必须调控自身状态 (12:33) 巨大的工作记忆,没有长期记忆 (14:13) 误差累积:为何 AutoGPT 和 BabyAGI 会失败 (15:51) Opus 3, o1, o3:三大真正的范式转变 (17:07) 在简单步骤与困难步骤间滴定推理算力 (18:23) 过程奖励与结果奖励:“让我们逐步验证” (20:32) RLVR 与为何 METR 曲线高估了可靠性 (22:09) 运行时可验证:编码获胜的真正原因 (25:14) 无真实标签,无廉价验证,无数据 (26:55) 从人类审核流程中编码确定性检查 (29:18) 合成数据的局限:生成伪影而非文本 (33:16) 通过 100 项评估——能否泛化到生产环境? (35:53) 原始资料与预训练知识 (36:37) 行为规范:Markdown、裁判以及真/假/不适用 (39:58) 规范编写中的特异性与脆弱性 (42:18) 作为运行时训练数据的上下文 (44:21) 裁判即智能体:轨迹映射与子智能体归因 (46:45) 第 37 手异议:可靠性优于最优性 (50:02) 黑盒模型:在无权重访问下构建 (52:41) “自 o3 以来,没有任何范式转变发生” (54:56) 与 Braintrust 共同开源行为规范标准 (01:02:54) 本体设计:虚拟文件系统、图、嵌入 (01:04:20) 规范与非规范:文档即代码库 (01:06:33) 语言架构师与为运行时解释而写作 (01:09:05) 部署的智能:300 名毫无上下文的“外星员工” (01:11:10) 闭环:信号 → 上下文、工具、框架 (01:12:50) 上下文噪音:大多数智能体构建者犯的错误 (01:14:29) 奖励函数设计与轨迹上的信用分配 (01:17:01) 痛苦教训会吞噬框架吗? (01:18:46) 商业护城河与技术护城河 (01:21:03) 范式思维胜过时间线多动症

双语字幕

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Speaker 0

人类早就习惯和非确定性系统打交道了,只不过这些系统通常是他们的同事,而不是电脑。

Humans are already used to working with non deterministic systems, it's just the systems are normally their co workers, not their computers.

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在很多方面,比如公司和流程,核心问题就是如何设计一个系统,让非确定性的实体能够协调合作来解决问题?

And in many ways, like companies and processes is all about how do you design a system for non deterministic entities to coordinate together to solve a problem?

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一旦你意识到这一点,就会发现这其实有点像智能体的设计。

And once you realize that, it's like, well, now it's like kind of agent design.

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假设你有100个评估指标。

Let's say you have a 100 evals.

Speaker 0

太好了。

Great.

Speaker 0

全都通过了。

They all pass.

Speaker 0

看起来不错。

That looks good.

Speaker 0

你确定现在这套方案能很好地适配到真实的生产环境中吗?

Are you confident that that now generalizes to the real world to production?

Speaker 0

我们的答案是否定的。

And our answer has been no.

Speaker 0

就算你一百次里一百次都做对了,如果一个人只是靠查维基百科才做对的,那会计事务所也不会雇他,所以我们也不该被雇。

Even if you got it right a 100 out of a 100 times, if a person is just getting it right because they're going to Wikipedia, the accounting firm wouldn't hire them, and so they shouldn't hire us either.

Speaker 0

你会看到有人对没抽象好的代码文件大惊小怪,但他们的上下文却是一团糟。

You'll see people, like, freaking out over a code file that isn't abstracted properly, and yet their context is, like, total shit.

Speaker 0

英文更珍贵,因为英文影响性能。

The English is more precious because the English affects the performance.

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代码不影响性能。

The code does not affect the performance.

Speaker 1

你好。

Hi.

Speaker 1

我是来自First Mark的METR。

I'm METR from First Mark.

Speaker 1

欢迎来到MAD播客。

Welcome to the MAD podcast.

Speaker 1

大家都在构建AI代理,但除了编程之外,大多数代理还无法可靠地完成实际工作。

Everyone is building AI agents, but outside of coding, most still can do real work reliably.

Speaker 1

我今天的嘉宾是一位站在解决这个问题最前沿的AI构建者。

My guest today is an AI builder at the forefront of cracking that problem.

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Mitch Troyanovsky是Basis的联合创始人,Basis是一家独角兽AI公司,其代理可以自主运行数小时甚至数天,并且已经能够完成像准备完整纳税申报表这样的复杂任务。

Mitch Troyanovsky is the cofounder of Basis, a unicorn AI company whose agents run autonomously for hours, sometimes days, and are already able to complete very tasks like preparing entire tax returns end to end.

Speaker 1

这是一期真正的参考节目,讲述如何构建长周期自主代理,Mitch分享了他在这个过程中学到的很多经验。

This is a true reference episode on how to build long horizon autonomous agents where Mitch shares tons of lessons he learned along the way.

Speaker 1

请欣赏我与见解深刻的Mitch Troyanovsky的对话。

Please enjoy my conversation with the deeply insightful Mitch Troyanovsky.

Speaker 1

我想从场景开始说起。

I want to start with scene.

Speaker 1

在我准备的时候,我看到了我们的朋友Stephanie Palazzolo在The Information上发布的一个视频,她描述了走进Basis办公室,看到一群人对着麦克风轻声细语的场景。

As I was prepping for this, I came across a video by our friend Stephanie Palazzolo at The Information and she was describing the experience of walking into the Basis office and seeing a bunch of people, whispering very quietly into microphones.

Speaker 1

所以,你知道,对于顶尖的AI构建者或者经常上X的人来说,这可能已经是人人都懂的事情了,但我认为对于绝大多数人来说,还是请描述一下你们对着这些麦克风轻声细语到底在做什么。

So, you know, maybe for the top AI builders or people who live on X, you know, second by second this may be, already something that, everybody understands but I think for the vast vast majority of people, like, just describe what you guys are doing whispering into these microphones.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我觉得,对于构建智能体,或者说对于和AI合作来说,最好的建议可能就是,你要给它尽可能多的上下文,因为它本质上总是缺少一些上下文。

I think maybe the best piece of advice for not for building agents but for working with AI in general is that you need to give it as much context as possible because it by definition is always missing context in some way.

Speaker 0

说话比打字快多了。而且实际上,当你试图把事情写下来的时候,你其实是在试图总结你脑子里那些乱七八糟的想法,所以这很费时间。写下来对你来说是有用的,因为如果别人只是随便说一通然后直接发给你,那会显得很没礼貌。

Speaking is just so much faster than writing things down and in fact when you try to write things down you are actually essentially trying to summarize all the crazy thoughts in your head and so that's why it takes a lot of time and it's useful for your eye because it's rude if somebody just blabbered and sent that to you as a as a Slack DM.

Speaker 0

但对智能体来说,它们不在乎。

But to an agent, they don't care.

Speaker 0

它们其实更喜欢这样。

They it's actually they would prefer it.

Speaker 0

所以,能轻声说出你的想法,效率会高很多,因为你不想大声喊。

So it becomes much more productive to be able to like whisper your thoughts, you know, because you don't wanna be shouting.

Speaker 0

而且现在有这些麦克风,你可以非常非常小声地说话,它们也能完整地捕捉到。

And you have these microphones now that allow you to whisper very very quietly and still pick up with full fidelity.

Speaker 0

这就是我们为什么这么做的原因。

That's why that's why we have it in.

Speaker 0

有时候人们刚加入公司看到这个会觉得有点奇怪,但过了一两个月之后,他们就再也回不去了。

Sometimes people see it and they think it's little weird when they join the company, but after after a couple after, you know, a month or so, they're it's like they they can't go back.

Speaker 0

所以

So

Speaker 1

那你对着什么耳语呢?

And so you whisper into what?

Speaker 1

是对着Cursor还是对着……

Into cursor or into

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

对着大家用的任何工具。

Into whatever people use.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,不同的人用不同的东西,比如Codex、Clutter、Cursor,或者别的什么。

I mean, we different people use different things, yeah, codecs or clutter or cursor or whatever people use.

Speaker 0

而且不只是工程团队。

And not just engineering.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

就是,如果你想完成某项任务,或者想描述清楚自己想要什么,所有的功能都能派上用场。

Like, all the all the functions if you're trying to get something done, if you're trying to describe what you want and all these things.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

太好了。

Great.

Speaker 1

好的。

Alright.

Speaker 1

所以,我今天想聊的,主要是关于构建长周期智能体的一些过往经验。这部分内容部分基于你在 X 上发过的一条很棒的帖子,但更重要的是,你刚刚和 Braintrust 合作发布了一个新的开源项目。

So, what am I hoping to, do today is, is a bit of a reference conversation on, old things around building, long horizon agents, that's in part based on a great thread that you had on X and perhaps more importantly, a new open source project that you just released in collaboration with Braintrust.

Speaker 1

我们会详细聊聊这个,不过为了让大家有个背景概念,你能用两到三句话简单介绍一下 Basis 吗?

We're gonna talk about all all about this, but maybe for contextual awareness, Basis in two or three sentences, how would you describe it?

Speaker 0

对,Basis 是用来端到端处理会计工作的智能体。

Yeah, Basis builds agents to do accounting work end to end.

Speaker 0

会计工作很难,不是简单的输入输出文本就能搞定的,它要求AI能够在很长一段时间内执行大量操作,并且在这段时间内保持连贯性,才能取得好的结果。所以我们一直非常关注如何真正构建能够扩展以完成这类工作的智能体。

And accounting is difficult, it's not something that is just purely text in text out and so it requires the ability for like AIs to be able to perform lots of actions over long periods of time and actually be coherent over that period of time to get to outcomes that are good and that's why we've always been very focused on how do you really build agents that can scale to do that work.

Speaker 1

你选择会计,是因为从构建智能体的角度来看它很有趣,还是因为其他原因?

And did you pick accounting because of how interesting that was from a agent building perspective or the other

Speaker 0

反过来?

way around?

Speaker 0

问得好。

Good question.

Speaker 0

可能反过来,但我确实认为从智能体的角度来看,它其实非常有趣。

It's probably the other way around but I do think it is actually quite interesting from an agent perspective.

Speaker 0

会计之所以有趣,原因有很多。

Accounting is interesting for a lot of reasons.

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它可能是这个国家最大的知识工作职业之一,甚至就是最大的。

It is, one, one of if not the largest knowledge work profession in the country.

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全国有超过三百万的会计师,你知道的,加起来。

There are over 3,000,000, you know, combined kind of accountants, in the country.

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我觉得会计最酷的地方在于,大多数人其实根本没怎么想过会计这回事。

And what I think is so cool about accounting actually is that most people don't really think about accounting.

Speaker 0

他们不会去想,比如,哎,这东西到底为什么存在?

They don't think like, oh yeah, why is that even there?

Speaker 0

我想在座的听众里,大概率也没人认真思考过它存在的意义。

You know, probably most listeners have never thought like, why does it even exist?

Speaker 0

接下来我们可能会聊到AI,趁现在大概花三十秒时间,让大家感受一下会计到底有多酷。

And, I know we're gonna talk about ages, maybe we'll quickly thirty seconds just to convince everyone how cool accounting is.

Speaker 0

你想想现实世界,发生了那么多事情,学术活动啊之类的。比如,你知道,刚才有人在那儿喝水,那个水瓶的制造商就得决定是从这家工厂进货还是找那个供应商,或者决定开新店、雇销售人员。这些都是基于对现实世界的理解而做出的经济决策。

If you think about the real world, so much stuff happens, academic activity, right, like, you know, was just drinking a water bottle there, like, you know, someone, that bottler had to choose to like go buy from that factory or that supplier or decide to open you know some additional store hire a salesperson and these are all economic decisions that stem from understanding the real world.

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现实世界里到底有什么呢?

What's in the real world?

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钱在流通,有人签合同,有人送货入库。

You know, money moves hands, someone signs a contract, someone delivers the inventory.

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就像这一连串发生的事件一样。

It's like all these events that occur.

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现代资本主义很大程度上依赖于所有这些参与者能基于这些事件做决策,对吧,比如公司的CEO、国税局显然要决定收多少税、银行要决定是否放贷、投资者等等,这些人关心现实世界,但他们无法理解它,因为它太庞大了,而且包含了大量非结构化、难以解析的信息。

And so much of modern capitalism relies on the ability of all these actors to make decisions on these events, right, like the CEO of that company, the IRS obviously to decide how much to tax, the bank to lend credit, investors, all these people they care about the real world but they can't understand it because it's gigantic and it involves all of this unstructured and difficult to parse information.

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而会计实际上就是把这一切压缩成结构化的东西,让人们可以查看、理解并做出决策。

And accounting is actually the art of compressing all of that into something that is structured that now people can look at and understand and make decisions.

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所以,从元层面来说,会计可以说是经济的一种智能,因为它确实是对所有存在信息的压缩活动。

So something about accounting you could argue in the meta way is kind of like an intelligence over the economy, because it is really a compression activity of all the information that exists.

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所以我觉得这是一个非常酷的问题,值得思考。

So I think it's a very cool problem to kind of think about.

Speaker 1

这仍然是同样的背景,我们要讨论的是长期目标智能体。

This is still the same thing for contextual awareness, we're going to talk about long, horizon agents.

Speaker 1

我想,现在长期目标这部分具体指什么?

What is, I guess what what what is the long horizon part these days?

Speaker 1

这个定义一直在演变,现在哪些属于这个范畴?

So that that keeps evolving, what falls in that category?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

也许我可以先简单定义一下什么是智能体。

Maybe I can give my quick definition of an agent.

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虽然现在可能大家都知道这个概念了,但我面试的时候特别喜欢拿这个问题来考人。

Just know maybe probably everyone knows at this point, but, I feel like that's a gotcha question I like to ask in interviews.

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我觉得智能体就是一个人工智能,或者说某种推理过程,它有能力自主做出决策、采取行动。所以从定义上讲,它是一个谱系,因为自主程度可以有大有小,对吧?

I tend to think of, an agent as an AI or like some inference that occurs that has the agency to go and make, decisions to do different things and so by definition it's a spectrum because you can have varying degrees of agency, right?

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比如,你会受到所处环境的限制。

Like you're constrained by whatever environment you're placed in.

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而长期任务,我觉得也是一个谱系,就是赋予智能体更多的自主权,让它能在更长的时间里保持连贯性。

And I think long horizon, again, is a spectrum where you're granting the agent the agency to make decisions that allow it to be coherent for longer periods of time.

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比如说,你让一个智能体去帮你查天气。

Right, so let's say that you are asking an agent to go and look up, the weather for you.

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它可能算是一个智能体,因为它有自主权决定调用哪个工具或者输入什么搜索词。

It might be an agent in the sense that it has the agency to decide what tool to call or what Google search to put in.

Speaker 0

但它不需要做太多工作来保持连贯性,因为只是查个天气而已。

But it doesn't need to do much work to be coherent over a period of time because it's, you're just getting the weather.

Speaker 0

但如果你让一个智能体去完成一个完整的功能,比如在你的代码仓库里实现某个功能,或者让它去做一个大的Excel工作簿,那它可能就得运行超过一分钟了,我们说的是十分钟、二十分钟、三十分钟,甚至可能更长。

But if you're asking an agent to say, go perform an entire feature, you know, like implement some feature in your repo or asking it to go and make a big excel workbook, now suddenly it might have to operate for longer than a minute, we're talking ten minutes, twenty minutes, thirty minutes, and potentially even much longer than that.

Speaker 0

一旦开始进入这种规模,就会遇到大语言模型工作的根本限制。

Once you're starting to get into those scales, start running into the fundamental limits of how LLMs work.

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我常说,大语言模型有非常大的工作记忆,但默认没有短期或长期记忆。

In which, I always like to say LLMs have very large working memories and by default no short term or long term memory.

Speaker 0

所以你必须利用大语言模型的这些优势,来弥补它缺乏良好或实际上任何真正的短期或长期记忆的不足,我们可以通过使用各种框架和这些进步来让它们在一段时间内保持连贯性,这个我们后面可以再详细讨论。

And so you have to leverage these strengths of the LLM to make up for the fact that you don't have a lot good or actually any real short term or long term memory by and we can talk more about it by using harnesses and you know all these kind of advancements to allow them to be coherent over a period of time.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,一旦你开始尝试让它保持连贯,因为你已经超出了它拥有的工作记忆量,我可能会说,那就是我开始称之为“长周期”的时候。

So I think once you start getting into the art of trying to get it to be coherent because you're going past the you know the amount of working memory it has, I'd probably say that's when you're starting to get into what I'd call long horizon.

Speaker 1

好。

Great.

Speaker 1

为了确认一下对话,我们这里讨论的是自主智能体。

And still to confirm the conversation, what we're talking about here is autonomous agents.

Speaker 1

我很好奇,也许举个例子,在Basis的背景下,“自主”是什么意思。

I'm curious maybe just as an example what autonomous means in the context of Basis.

Speaker 1

我听说你们现在可以让代理处理端到端的纳税申报了。

I read that you guys can now have agents that handle end to end tax returns.

Speaker 1

那能不能从高层次给我们讲讲,这具体是怎么运作的,包括步骤、需要多长时间,以及代理在概念上做什么?

So maybe walk us at a high level through what that looks like in terms of steps, how long that takes, what does an agent do conceptually?

Speaker 0

当代理真正自主运行,或者长时间执行任务,比如端到端处理纳税申报,这意味着它需要大量信息来完成工作,并且有工具去获取更多信息。

When you are really autonomous or kind of, you know, doing something over a really long horizon, say doing a tax return end to end, that means that you have a lot of information that is needed to do the work and you have the tools to go and get potentially more information.

Speaker 0

比如说,假设你在处理一份复杂的1065表格,你需要各种K-1、W-2、1099等文件,还有公司需要的其他东西,而且根据情况,你可能已经有试算平衡表了,这些通常是开始报税所需的,或者你面对的是还没完成的账簿。

So, let's say imagine you're doing a complicated ten sixty five and you have all of the different you know, k ones, w twos, other documents, 90 nine's, whatever you need from the the company and then you also potentially depending on what you're doing, you might have the trial balances already so that tends to be what you need to actually start a tax return or you're working with like books that aren't even done yet.

Speaker 0

然后代理需要根据所有这些信息,自己想办法怎么处理,能做什么,这就涉及到一些关于行为规范的问题,比如怎样才算好的实践,才能得到一套可靠的试算平衡表。

And the agent then has to actually go and figure out based on all this different stuff how is he gonna tackle it and what's he gonna be able to do and that's where you start getting into, you know, some stuff about like what the behavior should be that we can talk about about well what does good practice look like to say get to a solid, solid, set of trial balances.

Speaker 0

怎样做才能正确提取K-1和K-3,让你对结果有信心。

What does good look like in order to properly extract out you know the K1s and the K3s so that you can be confident in the outcome.

Speaker 0

要真正自主,它就不会回头问用户“这样对吗?这样对吗?我需要这个,我需要那个”。

And for it to be autonomous it means it's not going back to the user and saying hey like is this right, is this right, I need this, I need this.

Speaker 0

而是从开始工作一直到完成。

It's like starting the job to I'm done.

Speaker 0

而且我说“完成”并不是说点个按钮就完事了,没人检查。

And I'm done does not mean I'm done, you click a button like no one looks at it.

Speaker 0

实际上恰恰相反。

It's actually the opposite of that.

Speaker 0

这更像是你能想象到的税务准备人员,或者初级工程师第一次做事情那样:我完成了,这是我做的主要决定,这是我的假设,这些是你需要检查的地方,我们一起过一遍。

It's much closer to what you can imagine a preparer doing or maybe like a first pass or junior engineer or something of I'm done, here were the big decisions I made, here were my assumptions, here were the different things you need to look at, let's go and review together.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

如果你想想工程领域,比如一个工程师给你一个代码审查请求,没人喜欢收到一千行的代码审查请求,他们只会说“我保证完成了”,但你根本不想看。但如果你给别人一个很好的代码堆栈,拆分得很清楚,你能很容易理解,比如“这就是这个改动,这个差异,我在这里做了一个大的架构假设,这就是我为什么做这个改动”,那么你不仅优化了完成工作,还让审查者更容易理解你的决定。这在软件工程中非常明显,而且我认为在大多数职业中都是如此,尤其是会计,我们稍后可以深入讨论。所以对我来说,这就是自主性的意义。

And if you think about somebody, say in engineering, you know, an engineer handing you a PR, nobody likes being handed a thousand line PR, they're like it's done I promise, it's like you don't want to review that but if you instead handed somebody you know a great stack that was like that was like properly split out and you could understand very easily hey here is exactly what this change is and this diff and I made this big architectural assumption here and here is why I made that change and you can like optimize not just for getting the work done but for making it easy for your reviewer to understand the decisions that you made and that's obviously very true in software engineering and it's actually true in I think most professions, and especially accounting which we can kind of get more into and so to me that's that's I think what it means to be to be autonomous.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得对听众来说,花几分钟聊聊代理的历史会很有趣,也很有帮助。

So I thought what would be fun and helpful, for people listening to this would be to spend a few minutes on, I guess, the history of agents.

Speaker 1

比如,过去两三年我们听到了很多不同的东西,很多不同的术语,有些项目成功了,有些没成功。

Like, we've all heard over the last two to three years so many different things, so many different terms, some projects that work, some projects that didn't work.

Speaker 1

所以我觉得回顾一下过去会很有帮助。

So I think it would be helpful to just, like, go back in time just a little bit.

Speaker 1

在AI领域,这感觉像是史前时代,但实际上,也就是三年前、四年前的事。

What What in AI may feel like a prehistory, but in reality, it's, what, three years ago, four years ago.

Speaker 1

所以也许从2022年的React框架开始,不是软件工程那个,而是推理和行动,我记得那是2022年的一篇论文,基本上是说智能体是推理和行动的结合,你刚才也提到了。

So maybe starting in 2022 with the React frameworks, so not the software engineering, but, like, reasoning and and acting, which I I believe was a paper in 2022 that fundamentally said this agents are a combination of reasoning and acting which you just alluded to.

Speaker 1

根本的问题是,现在的情况基本上还是那样吗?

The fundamental question is that is that still largely what's what's happening?

Speaker 1

我的意思是,虽然在此基础上有了很多复杂的改进,但智能体的基本理论还是那个吗?

Mean with you know a tremendous level of sophistication on top of it but like is the fundamental theory of an agent still that?

Speaker 0

我认为在现代语言模型的框架下,是的,差不多,我觉得实际上是一样的,但有所延伸,我不太记得那篇论文当时是否提到了需要用推理来调节自己的状态。

I think within the paradigm of modern day LMs, yes, more so, more or less in the sense that I would say it is actually the same, but it kind of extends out further which I don't really remember if it was part of that paper back then of needing to use your reasoning to regulate your own state.

Speaker 0

我喜欢给公司里的人举一个例子,不管是技术人员还是其他人,就是电影《记忆碎片》。

Like, the analogy I like to always give to people, at the company when I'm learning about agents for the first time, not even just technical people, like anyone at the company actually, is the movie Memento.

Speaker 0

我觉得《记忆碎片》,没看过的人可能不知道,讲的是一个有短期记忆丧失的人,他每天醒来,知道自己是谁,知道自己是人类,知道一些基本的东西,但不知道过去几年发生了什么,完全不知道。为了朝着某个目标前进,比如买杂货或者复仇之类的,他必须给自己写笔记,然后第二天醒来读笔记,就这样积累知识。

I think Memento, for those who haven't seen it, is a movie in which there's this guy who you know has short term memory loss and he everyday he wakes up and he knows who he is and he knows you know like he knows he's a human, he knows like some basic stuff but he doesn't know like what's happened in the last couple years, he has no idea and for him to make progress to any particular goal that could be something like you know getting groceries or getting revenge or whatever it is, he effectively needs to write stuff down for himself and then when he wakes up the next day he reads his notes and essentially builds that up that's how he like builds up knowledge.

Speaker 1

顺便说一句,那是克里斯托弗·诺兰早期的电影。

Early Christopher Nolan movie by the way.

Speaker 1

对。

Yes.

Speaker 1

当时大家都痴迷于《奥德赛》,这是他早期的作品之一。

At the time when like everybody obsesses about the Odyssey this is one of the early his early works.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

我觉得《记忆碎片》还是诺兰最好的电影,不过确实如此。

I I still I think the procedure is the best Nolan movie but but, but yes.

Speaker 0

总之,我觉得你的观点是核心在于推理。不过我认为那篇论文里没怎么提这一点,但其实它确实存在。一方面是关于任务路径的推理,比如做税务时该选哪种方式;另一方面则是关于如何确保下一步推理能获得所需信息,以便与世界进行有效交互。如果时间跨度短,还在上下文窗口内,这很容易做到;但一旦涉及更长的时间跨度,超出上下文窗口或出现上下文衰减,你就得靠某种“蛮力”式的推理来构建环境,无论是通过子智能体还是压缩技术,这些我们后面可以再聊。我认为正是在这种情况下,推理才变得至关重要。

Anyway, so I think that's your point it is actually about reasoning but I think and I don't I don't think it talked about in the paper it's just it's there's reasoning in terms of what path is right to go for whatever the task is like do I do taxes way or that way for sure but there's also reasoning about how do I make sure my next inference step has what it needs to properly like you know interact with the world which is easy if you're in a short horizon because you're within the context window but once you start getting to longer horizons where you're beyond the context window or you're getting to context rot you need to kind of use and sort of brute force your reasoning to build out your environment whether that be with sub agents or compaction we can talk more about that but I think, where the reasoning becomes super important.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

很好。

Great.

Speaker 1

那么2022年之后的下一步,大概是2023年的BabyAGI,当时大家都把它视为一项巨大的进步。

So the next step after 2022 was, probably BabyAGI, in 2023, which, you know, everybody viewed as, just like a massive advancement.

Speaker 1

但那个方案最后没成。

But that sort of failed.

Speaker 1

我是说,那实验设计得很漂亮,但在实际操作中并没有完全行得通。

I mean, that was a beautiful experiment, but, like, didn't quite work out in in in practice.

Speaker 1

那为什么呢?

So why is that?

Speaker 1

我想那时候大家讨论得比较多的是误差累积的问题,就是说如果步骤太多,代理一旦跑偏,错误就会不断叠加。

I I guess it was at the time, like, people talked a lot about compounding errors and you know, how if you had many many steps and the agent started going astray then that would compound.

Speaker 1

当时具体是什么情况?对,

Was what it was from your Yeah,

Speaker 0

我想想那时候,如果我没记错的话,应该是 GPT-4,或者是 GPT-4 Turbo。

I think back then, I think that I believe if I remember correctly that was like GPT four, maybe four turbo, at the time.

Speaker 0

当时的模型,首先说,如果是还没出 Turbo 版本的话,上下文窗口非常小。

The models back then, for starters, if it was pre turbo, like the context windows were very small.

Speaker 0

所以,要想保持逻辑连贯,你的上下文里至少得有足够的信息,才能让你去整理和构建自己的环境。

And so, you you know, if you're gonna be coherent, you need to have at least enough stuff in your context that you can organize your own environment.

Speaker 0

所以他们当时没有那个条件。

So they didn't have that.

Speaker 0

而且即使上下文窗口变大了,我觉得在BabyAGI出来的时候,模型其实还不太擅长保持注意力,一旦超过两万个token,它们就不太聪明了。

And even when the context windows got larger, I don't think by the time BabyAGI came out, the models were actually good at keeping attention over like, once you got past 20,000 tokens, they were just not smart.

Speaker 0

直到Opus 3出来,它们才开始在十万个token的情况下表现得聪明一些。

It took until maybe Opus three for them to start getting smart at like a 100,000 tokens even.

Speaker 0

所以BabyAGI当时没有那个能力。

And so that was BabyAGI didn't have that.

Speaker 0

而且,显然,我后面会详细讲,它们的推理能力也不强。

And then also, obviously, I'm gonna talk more about it, they just were not good reasoners.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你推理能力不强,那就会出现很多累积错误,因为你在生成每个token的时候可能会犯一个错误,然后这个错误就会不断累积,而且你也没有足够的自我意识去真正有效地自我修复。

So And if you're not a good reasoner, then you're gonna have lots of compounding errors because you're gonna make one mistake that's, you know, in your, in your kind of per token generation and now suddenly that will just compound and you have no way to have the self awareness to actually like self heal in any meaningful way.

Speaker 1

所以,最大的突破就是推理模型的出现?

So the big breakthrough then was reasoning models?

Speaker 0

对,我觉得当我想到那些真正让人震惊的时刻,比如,我不知道能不能说脏话,但确实,那些真正让我们,至少让我个人,感到震撼的时刻,或者说真正发生范式转变的时刻,大概就是那些时候。

Yeah, I would say when I think about what were the big like, holy shit moments for like, I don't know if you can curse but yeah, like what were the big kind of holy shit moments, for us, at least for me personally, it was probably or at least the moments in which there was a genuine paradigm shift.

Speaker 0

这样的时刻其实不多。

There haven't been that many.

Speaker 0

我觉得一个是Opus 3,这个模型可能被低估了,但我觉得它是第一个真正能理解长上下文的模型。

I would say they were Opus three which I think goes underappreciated but I think was the first model to truly be able to like, actually understand at long context.

Speaker 0

以前你要是把八万token的内容放进GPT-4 Turbo,它根本理解不了。

Before if you put anything in the, like, 80,000 tokens into the GPT-four turbo, it could not understand it.

Speaker 0

但Opus 3真的能理解,这很了不起。

Opus three actually understood it, which was remarkable.

Speaker 0

我觉得还有o1,当然,大家都在讨论这个。

I think it was that, I think it was o1, obviously, everyone talks about that.

Speaker 0

然后o1之后就是o3。

And then I think after o1 it was o3.

Speaker 0

因为我觉得o3证明了,你不仅可以在推理时扩展推理量,而且通过更好的训练、更多的计算资源、更好的数据等等,

Because I think o3 helped prove that not only could you scale the amount of reasoning at inference time, but with better training, with more compute, better data, etc.

Speaker 0

在后训练阶段,你可以让推理质量更高、更高效,而且更好。

In the post training phase you could make the reasoning higher quality, more efficient and, just better.

Speaker 0

所以它在推理时每多生成一个token,质量都更高,这在o1刚出来的时候并不明显。

And so each incremental token that it reasoned with at inference time was higher quality which was not obvious when o1 came out.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得,对我来说,那些就是最大的突破。

So I think that was I think those were to me the big breakthroughs.

Speaker 1

这些模型实际上是在循环中作为智能体训练的,有一个推理链条,它们会尝试一种方法,然后回溯,再尝试另一种方法,这是不是有什么特别之处?

Is there something about the fact that those were effectively trained as agents in loops where there's a chain of reasoning where they try something, backtrack, try something else?

Speaker 1

这是否就是它们对智能体更有效的基本原因?

Is that the fundamental reason why this works better for agents?

Speaker 0

我觉得有几个原因。

I think it's a couple of things.

Speaker 0

我觉得是因为模型能够,嗯,有点像在过程中对每一步投入的计算量进行微调。

I think it's that because the model is able to is it kinda like titrate the amount of compute it's throwing at any specific step in the process?

Speaker 0

在任何一条轨迹中,有很多决策非常难,也有一些非常简单。

You're able to in any trajectory, there are lot of decisions that are really hard and some that are really easy.

Speaker 0

而且,你知道,用一个超级大的参数模型,服务成本极高,而且在每一步推理时都使用全部计算量,这根本不可行。

And it's just not feasible to have like, you know, some giant parameter model that's super expensive to serve that has essentially been using, you know, all of that compute at every single inference step.

Speaker 0

所以这种推理能力让你能够调节计算资源的分配。我觉得正如你提到的,这有点像一种涌现行为:如果你是一个优秀的推理者,你可以根据需要大幅调整资源投入。我们确实观察到,在现代推理模型中,处理简单步骤和困难步骤所消耗的计算量差异非常大。

And so the ability to reason, allowed you to titrate that and I think as you pointed out as a kind of maybe emergent behavior that if you are a really good reasoner and you and you can dial it up like a lot, like we actually look at the amount of compute for an easy step versus a hard step, it's a lot different with the modern reasoning models.

Speaker 0

你的自我修复能力也会变强,因为你会停下来思考整个过程,更多地运用这种深思熟虑的方式,而不是像以前那样仅靠直觉或逐词生成来行事。

You could become better at self healing, because you're going to be like pausing and thinking about everything and sort of using that more, you know that kind of thinking versus just doing everything on instinct which is what was happening if you're doing kind of, like, just per token generation.

Speaker 1

在你的 X(推特)帖子中,你提到了 OpenAI 在 2023 年做的一件事,他们发布了一篇名为《让我们逐步验证》的文章,其中你们错误标注了大约 80 万个推理步骤。

In your x thread, you you talk about, something OpenAI did in 2023 when they, published something called let's verify step by step where you mislabeled about 800,000 reasoning steps.

Speaker 1

当时发生了什么?他们的目标是什么?

What did that happen then and what was the goal?

Speaker 0

对,那篇论文出来的时候,我想那时候大家还在回顾这段历史。其实当时有很多传言,比如大家可能还记得那个信息文章里说的‘草莓解出了数学题’之类的。

Yeah, so that paper came out so back I think before people trying to think about history here but essentially there was a lot of rumors back then about, you know, if people remember the information article like, strawberry solved math or whatever it was.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得,甚至在那些传言出来之前,文献里就有一些蛛丝马迹。不过我不太记得那是传言之后还是之前了。反正像数学这类问题,或者说你能验证的那些任务,可能是训练模型提升不同领域能力的好方法。

And so, I think even before those rumors came out there was some hints in the literature like this and that might have been after the rumor actually I don't remember but that math was a, or or you know these kind of problems that you could, you could verify were maybe good ways to try to train the models to be better at kind of different tasks.

Speaker 0

我这也是纯猜测,因为我没在实验室待过。但当时确实有个问题,在整个机器学习的发展史上都一直存在:你是只根据它是否答对题目来给奖励,还是看它解决问题的过程是否像优秀的数学家那样?

And I think this is purely speculation because I was not in the labs but there was a sort of question back then and through a lot of the history of ML around are you going to give the reward just from like whether it got the problem correct or whether, it approached it like a good mathematician would approach it.

Speaker 0

有趣的是,在那篇发表的论文里,他们展示了如果你根据过程而不是仅仅根据结果来给予奖励,实际上在同样的样本量下,效果会更好。

And what's interesting is that in that paper which they published they showed that actually if you rewarded based on the process rather than just an outcome, you actually got better results within that sample.

Speaker 0

但这显然成本很高,因为那需要数学家来评判他们解题的方法,对吧?

But that obviously is expensive because that required mathematicians to grade the approach they took to the problem, right?

Speaker 0

相比之下,如果你往后看一点,看看DeepSeek R1那篇论文,他们实际上阐述了当时所有实验室都在做的事情,至少OpenAI在做的事情,就是基于可验证奖励的强化学习推理,那基本上没有太多过程监督,而只是简单地说,嘿,你结果做对了吗?

Versus if you look, you know, if you fast forward a bit and you look at the like the deep seek r1 paper, where they effectively laid out, you know, what I think all the labs were doing at that time or at least open air was doing in terms of, you know, RLVR of reasoning from reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards, that effectively had very little process supervision and instead was essentially just saying, hey, did you get the outcome right?

Speaker 0

对。

Yes.

Speaker 0

好。

Okay.

Speaker 0

那我就奖励你,然后把这个规模扩大,这显然效果很好。

Let me reward you and then scaling that up, which, you know, obviously worked well.

Speaker 1

说到智能体的最新发展,就在去年吧,有一张现在很出名的METR图表,显示长时程智能体的能力大约每七个月翻一番。

Still in the recent evolution of of agents, so just, I guess it was last year there was like this famous, now famous METR chart that shows that the long horizon agents, capabilities like double every seven months.

Speaker 1

你在2026年还观察到这种情况吗?

Is that is that something that you're still observing in 2026?

Speaker 0

是的,绝对如此。

Yeah absolutely.

Speaker 0

我觉得METR那个图表现在有点不太准确了,因为真的很难衡量。

I mean I don't I think the METR chart is somewhat inaccurate these days because it's so hard to measure.

Speaker 0

而且那个门槛

Also the bar

Speaker 1

也挺低的,对吧?

is pretty low right?

Speaker 0

门槛确实挺低的,而且我对他们的数据集不是特别熟悉,但我的理解是样本量有点小。

The bar bar is pretty is pretty low and I think I'm not super familiar with their dataset but my understanding is that it's, it's like a low like the sample size is kind of low.

Speaker 0

所以我不太清楚那个指标的具体情况,但我觉得,从整体感觉上来说,绝对是这样的。

So I don't know about the specifics of that metric, but I think, you know, from a vibes perspective, absolutely.

Speaker 0

你看,模型以前是因为变得更聪明才能保持更长时间的连贯性,但现在它们也被专门训练来做这件事,对吧?

Like, you kind of the models were able to start being coherent for longer periods by being smarter, but now they're also being specifically trained to do that, right?

Speaker 0

这意味着它们被训练如何对自己有良好的心智模型,因为如果你要外包给子代理,你就需要这个,对吧?

So that means they're being trained at how to, you know, how do you have good theory of mind over yourself because you need to if you're going to be outsourcing to a sub agent, right?

Speaker 0

或者如果你要给自己写笔记,就像我们之前说的《记忆碎片》那个比喻,对吧?

Or if you're gonna be writing notes off to yourself, going back to the Memento analogy, right?

Speaker 0

比如说,你得想想,我明天醒来要读这些笔记,那我怎么写才能让未来的我一看就懂,信息密度最高?

Like, you need to think about, hey, I'm gonna wake up tomorrow and I'm gonna read these notes, what is the most information dense way for me to write this note down so that me in the future will understand it?

Speaker 0

这其实需要一种心智理论,所以你看,随着这些模型越来越多地被训练去做这类工作,而这跟人类很不一样——人类根本不需要这样,因为我们天生就很擅长这个,我们不需要为自己写笔记,大脑自己就搞定了——你会发现这个差距还在拉大。我觉得其实我们还处于很早期的阶段,你看看那些进展,比如Fable 5和5.6、Solo这些。

Well that requires kind of a theory of mind and so you know as these, models are being trained more on actually how to do that kind of work which is very very non human like humans don't have to because we're great at that actually so we don't have to, write for ourselves you know our brain does that for us, you're starting to see it get even farther I think we're still actually quite early at that if you look at some of the advancements you know to Fable five and five point six Solo and whatnot.

Speaker 1

很好,我想就你刚才提到的再深入一点。我觉得,要全面讨论2026年的智能体,以及向自主智能体的演进,就不能不提可验证奖励。

Great and just to go a little deeper on what you just mentioned, I think you know a broad context on agents in 2026 with the evolution towards autonomous agents would not be complete without actually talking about verifiable rewards.

Speaker 1

那请你给我们讲讲,什么是可验证奖励,它在整个图景中扮演什么角色,然后也许再讲讲为什么编程是第一个成功的自主智能体用例,以及这和可验证奖励有什么关系。

So tell us what it is, where that fills in the overall picture, and then perhaps why coding was the first successful sort of autonomous agent use case and how that's, you know, related to verifiable rewards.

Speaker 0

这挺有意思的。

It's kind of interesting.

Speaker 0

我觉得,我觉得大家对这个有点误解。

I think, I think people get this a little bit wrong.

Speaker 0

我这么说有点猜测的成分,因为我其实不太确定,但编程确实是可以验证的,因为我能知道代码能不能通过,所以我可以基于这个来训练,比如你做对了没有,做错了没有,等等。

I'm speaking with a little bit of speculation because I don't actually know, exactly but coding, yes is verifiable in the sense that I can know whether the code passes or not and so I could train, on that, you know, did you get the problem right, did get it wrong, etc.

Speaker 0

这很有用。

Which is useful.

Speaker 0

但模型擅长编程,部分原因是这个,但我觉得还有编程的其他几个特点。

But the models being great at coding is partially that, but it's partially I think a couple other facets of coding.

Speaker 0

第一,编程在运行时是可以验证的。

So number one is that coding is verifiable at runtime.

Speaker 0

我觉得这一点非常重要,因为归根结底,智能体需要获得关于自己表现如何的反馈。

I think that's a very important point because PHY is at the end of the day, like, an agent needs to get signal as to how it's performing.

Speaker 0

所以想象一下,如果你是一名工程师,你写了代码,但永远无法运行它。

And so imagine if you were an engineer and you, you know, wrote code and you can never run it.

Speaker 0

即使你是世界上最优秀的工程师,你也会在某个时候遇到语法错误,导致程序出错。

Like, even if were the best engineer in the world, you're gonna have a syntax error in which the thing is wrong at some point.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,编程在运行时如此容易验证,或者至少部分可以验证,这显然对它的发展非常有利,而且成本低,对吧?

And so I think the fact that coding is so easily verifiable at runtime or at least some parts of it are verifiable at runtime is obviously very valuable for it being there and it's cheap to do, right?

Speaker 0

在环境中很容易做到,而且它完全是基于文本的,所以随处可用,你可以在本地电脑上直接运行,对吧?

It's easy to do within the environment and it's super text based so it's available anywhere like you can just on your local computer you can just run it, right?

Speaker 0

所以我认为,编程的这些特点实际上使得智能体在这方面变得如此擅长,这也是很多原因所在。

And so I think those aspects of coding actually make it, are a lot of the reasons it's it's, the agents are getting so good at it.

Speaker 0

我觉得还有一点是,如果我们回想一下大概一年前或一年半前,智能体在编程方面的表现,它们能按照你的指示去实现功能,但缺乏那种品味,或者说不知道什么是好的软件,因为即使你用可验证的奖励来训练它们,比如问它们单元测试通过了吗?

I think one more piece of it is that, and I think we probably saw this if you think about how good agents were at coding maybe a year ago, year and a half ago, they, they could go and implement the thing you told them but they didn't have the level of like, you know, taste or level of like what is good software because even if you train them with verifiable rewards on like hey, did this unit test pass?

Speaker 0

就算你能通过所有的测试,也不代表你把应用搭建得正确,不代表你的数据库设计得好,也不代表你把文件拆分得合理,对吧?

Like you could pass all the tests in the world, doesn't mean that you set up the the app correctly, doesn't mean your database was built well, doesn't mean that you, you know, split out the files properly, right?

Speaker 0

归根结底,编程是主观的,是一门艺术,而艺术不是靠可验证的奖励就能解决的。

At the end of the day coding is subjective, it's an art, and you're not gonna be solving art through verifiable rewards.

Speaker 0

所以,我实际上认为,很大一部分原因在于训练数据的数量和质量。各大实验室在编程方面的训练数据显然已经做得非常好了,他们花了很多精力确保这些数据质量很高,用来训练高质量代码。

And so, I actually think there's a large part of this which is the amount of training data and the quality of training data that the models that the labs have clearly for coding has gotten quite good and they focus a lot on making sure it's very good so that they're training on high quality code.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得这是另一部分原因,也许是因为实验室里都是工程师,这个问题更容易被重视,而且显然这也是他们策略的一部分,所以他们更关注确保预训练和后训练的数据集都包含大量高质量代码,这不仅让智能体擅长写代码,现在也开始擅长真正的工程了。

So I think that's the other part, it's just that maybe because the labs are obviously full of engineers, you know, it's more top of mind and obviously it's part of their strategy and so they it is more top of mind for them to ensure that both their pre training and post training sets have lots of high quality code and that's what makes the agents great at not just writing code but now starting to become good at actually engineering.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得是所有这些因素加在一起。

So I think it's all those things together.

Speaker 0

我认为可验证的奖励可能只是起点,让这些事情得以发生,但其他因素同样重要,甚至更重要。

I think the verifiable rewards are maybe just like the beginning that allows that stuff to happen but I think the other stuff matters just as much if not more.

Speaker 1

很好。

Great.

Speaker 1

这就引出了我们论点的核心,也就是你在非编程领域的工作。

Which brings us to the core of the thesis, which is your work on a domain that's outside of coding.

Speaker 1

也就是说,构建能在现实世界中长期自主运行的智能体,我猜可以这么理解吧?毕竟除了这个说法,好像也没别的词能准确形容了。

So building long horizon, autonomous agents for, I guess, the real world for lack of a better term, instead of Okay.

Speaker 1

好的。那为什么智能体会遇到困难呢?

Good So why do agents struggle?

Speaker 1

你提到了三个原因。

You mentioned three reasons.

Speaker 1

也许你提到了那些原因,接下来我们就逐一展开聊聊。

Maybe you mentioned what those reasons are and that will go into them turn by turn.

Speaker 0

对,我觉得智能体在很多方面都存在困难。

Yeah, so I think agents struggle for a lot of reasons.

Speaker 0

首先,它们往往不清楚什么是真正的高质量标准。

I think one, they struggle because they don't necessarily know what good looks like.

Speaker 0

其次,就像我们刚才讨论编程时提到的那样,在运行过程中自我验证可能并不容易。

I think they struggle because it may not be easy to verify yourself, at runtime, as we're talking about with coding.

Speaker 0

我觉得另一个原因是,这可能不是亚洲人特有的问题,可能是个用户体验的问题,就是对于编程来说,工程师们往往深陷其中。

I think another part is that, and this is maybe not an Asian struggle, maybe it's a UX thing which is that for coding engineers are just very in the weeds of it.

Speaker 0

所以这里有个区别,如果你在运行一个长周期的编程代理,而工程师没有亲自参与编程、没有深入代码细节,而是被抽象出来了,那么你可能需要更高的质量标准,以及更明智的决策方式,这比编程本身的要求更高。

And so there's a kind of a difference where if you were like running a long horizon agent for coding if the engineer was not, you know, engineering and like in the weeds of the code and instead they were more abstracted away, your maybe level of quality and you know how you make decisions probably maybe need a higher bar than you would for coding.

Speaker 0

你知道,程序员对较低的标准也能接受,这一直都是这样。

You know coders are okay with lower bars, that's been true forever.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得所有这些因素加起来,使得即使现在在编程领域,代理也还没有达到人类在长时间内保持连贯性的水平。

So I think all these things add up, in making it and even now with coding like the agents are not yet, they're not they're not human level at being coherent over long periods of time.

Speaker 0

这很明显,因为它们不能像初级工程师那样在一个项目上连续工作两周。

That's obvious because they can't code like a junior engineer on a project for two weeks.

Speaker 0

所以它们做不到,这比人类还差,即使一开始也是这样。

So they can't that's worse than a human, even at the start.

Speaker 1

那我们来看看关于可验证奖励的那部分,以及编写系统的人不一定对好的标准有直觉。

So let's take, that, part about, verifiable rewards and the fact that people writing the systems don't necessarily have intuition for what good looks like.

Speaker 1

那你们是怎么解决这个问题的呢?

So how do you guys solve that?

Speaker 1

比如说,你知道,通过测试对报税来说意味着什么?它不像代码那样需要编译。

Like what what does, you know, passing a test mean for a tax return that, you know, unlike code doesn't need to compile?

Speaker 0

好消息是,有些东西是可以编译的。

So the good news is there are some things that can compile.

Speaker 0

不是全部,但显然你可以测试看看。

Not all, but you can obviously test to see

Speaker 1

要么被起诉,要么不被起诉。

Either you get sued or you don't

Speaker 0

被起诉。

get sued.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

嗯,我觉得这个问题的答案就是,你看看人类是怎么做的。会计有个好处,虽然其他一些职业也有,但会计是一个你真的必须力求正确的职业。正因为如此,它涉及很多判断和流程。我们有一个东西,我在设计方面也说过,就是人类已经习惯了和非确定性的系统打交道,只是这些系统通常是他们的同事,而不是他们的电脑。在很多方面,公司和流程都是关于如何为非确定性的实体设计系统。

Well, I think the answer for this is you you look at what humans do and how and, one nice about accounting which is true in some other professions as well but accounting is a profession in which you really try and have to be correct and so because of that and it's something in which there's so much judgment and you know process involved where I one of the things we have and I say this on the design side a bit but it's like humans are already used to working with non deterministic systems it's just the systems are normally their co workers not their computers and in many ways like companies and processes is all about how do you design a system for non deterministic entities I.

Speaker 0

对。

E.

Speaker 0

就像人类协作解决问题一样。

Like humans to coordinate together to solve a problem.

Speaker 0

一旦你意识到这一点,就会觉得这有点像智能体设计。所以我觉得,如果要考虑什么是好的智能体设计,或者什么可以被验证,你应该看看人类是怎么组织的。

And once you realize that it's like well now it's like kind of agent design sort of and so I think if you needed to think about what is good agent design or and what can be verified you should look at how the humans organize.

Speaker 0

如果你看人类怎么做税务申报,你会发现有验证步骤、独立审查,还有一些可以确定性验证的东西。比如,你可以说,试算平衡表加起来是不是等于零,这是一个很明显的检查;你还可以检查Excel里有没有错误,这也是很明显的。所以有很多类似的事情,对人类来说很明显,但你需要确保它们被正确编码。还有一些事情可能不是那么确定性地可验证,但对会计来说一眼就能看出来有问题,比如你删了Excel里的某个标签页,或者你没有引用某个东西,等等。所以,你可以开始从这些不是确定性可验证的事情中构建验证器,因为如果会计看一眼就会觉得明显有问题。这样,你就可以考虑用评审员或其他形式的验证来获取信号,不仅在评估中,也在运行时。

And if you look at how humans do tax returns, you have steps of verification, you have independent review, you have things that can be deterministically verified so you can say hey like you know obviously do like do the TBs like add up to zero right that's like a very obvious check you can things like is the excel not have errors is an obvious thing right and so there's lots of things like that that are human or obvious but you need to make sure are properly encoded and there's other things that are maybe not as deterministically verifiable but like you know would be obvious to to an accountant to look at it oh this is wrong you know of like oh you deleted this tab in this excel or you didn't cite this thing or whatever it is and so you can start to build you know verifiers effectively from these things that are not, deterministically verifiable but, you know, if they're an accountant would look at it, it'd be obvious and so you can start to, you know, think about judges or other, you know, forms of verification to like get that signal both in your evals but also at runtime.

Speaker 1

这是其中一点。

So that's one thing.

Speaker 1

我觉得你在X上的帖子里提到过,数据稀缺是个问题。

I think you pointed, in your X thread, that there was an issue around scarcity of data.

Speaker 1

你能展开讲讲吗?

If you can you go into this?

Speaker 0

假设,为了讨论方便,你拥有全国所有的真实税务申报数据,但实际上因为隐私原因你不可能拿到。就算你拿到了,你也没有这些数据,然后你只是想用这个来获取数据,不是用来训练,而是用来验证智能体做得怎么样。这个数据量级和合成数学问题相比,简直微不足道,你可以生成成千上万甚至上百万个数学问题。所以,即使你拥有世界上所有的数据,你也没法规模化。

Let's say, just for sake of argument here, you had, not just synthetic but every like real tax return across the country which you actually couldn't do for privacy reasons, let's say you did, you don't have that and you're just like okay let me use this as a way to get data that you're not training but data that allows you to verify how well the agents are doing the order of magnitude there is tiny compared to you know standing up math problems synthetically and you're generating you know whatever 100 thousands millions etc And so even if you had all the data in the world you, would not be able to scale it.

Speaker 0

所以你得想想怎么通过合成方式来生成这些数据。

So you need to think about how do you synthetically generate it.

Speaker 0

而要想实现合成生成,难度其实很大,因为你生成的不仅仅是文本,还得是那些真实且多样化的产物。

And if you think about how to synthetically generate it, that's really hard because you're not just synthetically generating text, you're synthetically generating artifacts that have to be real and diverse.

Speaker 0

这样一来,你就得面对跟数据类似的那些难题了,比如数据的多样性,还有各种其他你必需的条件。

And so now you get to tell the same problems about like, data, you know, data diversity and all the different things that you need.

Speaker 0

我毫不怀疑这个问题最终会被解决,但至少在当下,它还没有被解决。

And I have no doubt that that problem will be solved over time, but it's not solved today.

Speaker 0

所以,在数据生成的可能性、模型实际具备的能力,以及我们之前在帖子中聊到的那些内容之间,存在一个差距。

And so, there's this kind of gap between like, maybe what is possible from a data generation perspective and what is actually possible, what lead into capabilities the models have, is maybe where you get to some of that stuff we were talking about in the thread.

Speaker 1

你是怎么看待反馈循环的长度的?

And how do you think about the length of the feedback loop?

Speaker 1

对,我的意思是,

Yeah, mean that's the

Speaker 0

另一件事是,反馈循环的长度可能会非常长,这取决于你具体在做什么。

other thing is the length is can be very long depending what you're doing.

Speaker 0

你知道,做一份1065表格,一个人可能要花二十多个小时,甚至更久,实际工作的时间。

You know performing a a ten sixty five can take a human, you know, like twenty plus hours, easily of actual work.

Speaker 0

我不是说他们花了一天时间。

I don't mean like it took them a day.

Speaker 0

我的意思是,就是实实在在坐下来干活的时间。

I meant like literal sitting down work.

Speaker 0

而且对于非常复杂的申报,实际花的时间可能更长,所以即使你拥有世界上所有的数据——这也不可能——你也没法获得所需的反馈循环,来进行你想要的任何改进循环,让这些智能体变得真正出色。

And it could actually take much longer for very complicated returns and so there's just no way that you even if you had all the data in the world which you can't have, you would be able to have the feedback loop needed to like do whatever you know improvement loop you wanted to do, to get the agents to be really good.

Speaker 1

再具体一点,编制一份纳税申报表大概需要多少步骤?

And again to make that concrete like how many steps, would be involved in compiling a know a tax return?

Speaker 1

是的,我的意思是,给你举个例子。

Yeah I mean to give you

Speaker 0

比如说,你很容易就有500份甚至1000份文件。

a sense like you could have for example 500, a thousand documents easily.

Speaker 0

你需要考虑如何将这些文件相互对应,理解哪些是重要的,你可能需要对每份文件进行大量不同的研究,还得考虑它们整体意味着什么,至少在今天,你得把它们整理成某种工作簿,通常是大型的Excel表格。

You need to think about how to map those documents against each other, understand what matters, you have to potentially perform lots of different research per different document, have to potentially think about What they all mean, you know, you have to compile them all into certain, at least today into workbooks of certain types which are like big excels.

Speaker 0

要做的事情很多。

There's a lot that you have to do.

Speaker 0

所以你说的是,步骤肯定轻松超过几千步。

So you're talking, I mean steps definitely in the few thousands easily.

Speaker 0

如果你考虑的是推理步骤的话。

If you're thinking about like inference steps.

Speaker 0

而且根据你构建系统的方式,如果你开始为不同的事情派出子代理——这几乎是必须的——那步骤数还会增加。这还没算上其他测试时的计算方法,比如,你可以这样想:假设你有一个税务问题要解决,而且特别难,只有专家才能解决这个具体的税务问题。

Know depending on how you build your system, if you start to span out you know sub agents for different things which you kind of have to do you're increasing that potentially and that's before you think about other you know test time compute methods for example you know one thing you could do is say well imagine you're you there's a tax question you have to solve and it's like insanely difficult, know, like only an expert will be able to solve this specific tax question.

Speaker 0

也许在这种情况下,与其让代理自己解决或者派一个子代理,不如派五个,然后让它们投票。

Maybe there instead of you know the agent doing or spawning a sub agent, you're spawning five and you let them vote.

Speaker 0

所以还有很多其他方法可以投入更多计算资源来解决问题,因此根据你具体做什么,步骤数最终会变得非常大。

And so there's just lots of other things you can do to throw more compute at the problem, and so based on what you're doing like the amount of steps end up being quite large.

Speaker 1

好的,明白了。那我复述一下:你们面对的是非常复杂的流程,步骤非常多,而且没有太多数据来判断哪里对哪里错,甚至有时候连对错都不清楚。虽然对于某些部分的问题,你们可以明确判断对错,但并非总是如此。

Okay great, so to play it back, you got very complex processes with many many many steps, you don't have a lot of data to figure out what went right or wrong, It's not even always clear what is right or wrong, although you can, at least for certain parts of our problems, definitively whether this is right or wrong, but not always.

Speaker 1

所以这是个非常复杂的问题,这也引出了你们处理它的方式,特别是你们不能只依赖结果,而必须依赖过程这个理念。

So very complex problem, which leads to how you guys have approached it and, in particular there's this concept that you can't just rely on outcomes, but you need to rely on process.

Speaker 1

那依赖结果到底有什么问题呢?

So what is so wrong about relying on outcomes?

Speaker 0

对,问题在于如果依赖结果的话,比如你有一个几千步的轨迹,或者老实说长达一小时的流程,你会进行评估,看看什么是好的表现。有些评估是完全可验证的,比如数字是否匹配;而有些部分则让大模型当裁判,比如有具体的评分标准之类的。

Yeah, the problem with relying on outcomes, so if you have a multi thousand step, trajectory or even honestly one that's like an hour long, you will have evals, that will say what good looks like and it could be entirely verifiable, like do the numbers match and it could be, you know, parts that having LM as a judge, like there's some rubric etc.

Speaker 0

假设你有100个评估项,都通过了,看起来不错。

And let's say you have a 100 evals, great, you know, they all pass, it looks good.

Speaker 0

但你有没有信心这能推广到现实世界,应用到实际生产中呢?

Are you confident that that now generalizes to the real world, to production?

Speaker 0

我们的答案是否定的。

And our answer has been no.

Speaker 0

你实际上无法对此保持确信。

You actually cannot be confident of that.

Speaker 0

所以你不应该只依赖这一点。

And so you shouldn't only rely on that.

Speaker 0

同样的道理,如果一个工程师跑过来跟你说嘿,你知道的,我的所有测试都通过了,端到端测试、单元测试等等,那这是否意味着他把数据库架构设计得没问题呢?

In the same way that if an engineer came to you and said hey, you know, all my tests pass end to end unit tests etc, like does that mean that they architected the database properly?

Speaker 0

那倒不一定,这并不能真正说明问题。

Like not necessarily, that doesn't actually tell you that.

Speaker 0

有很多方法可以通过所谓的“结果”,但实际上并没有正确执行流程。

There are lot of ways to pass quote unquote outcomes without, you know, having done the process properly.

Speaker 0

所以,我们发现,特别是回到我之前提到的类比人类组织的观点,从人类的工作方式中能学到很多东西。

And so, what we have found is that there are especially going back to my point earlier on analogizing to human organizations, there's lots of learnings from how humans do work.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,抛弃这些经验是错误的,比如说什么“苦涩的教训”,抛弃这些经验,让代理在运行时完全重新发明一种做税务申报的方法,因为“苦涩教训”等等,会比人类几百年来积累的正确流程经验更好。

And so I think it is a mistake to throw out those learnings and say, you know, bitter lesson, throw out those learnings, we're just gonna have the agents at run time develop an entirely new way to do a tax return that is you know because bitter lesson yada yada will be better than you know the hundreds of years of human history that have gone into learning about the right process.

Speaker 0

也许有一天这会成真。

Maybe that will one day be true.

Speaker 0

我不是说这永远不会成真,而且我认为,回到我们之前讨论的数据瓶颈问题,如果你在基于结果的流程中投入足够多的数据和计算,最终可能会达到那个目标,但不会很快。所以,如果不会很快实现,而模型又有这种潜在能力,你真正需要做的是思考:让我们从人类做事的方式中,从好的流程中汲取经验。

I'm not saying that it will never be true and I do think it is possible going back to like the data bottlenecks we talked about earlier and I think if you throw enough data and enough compute in a, you know, outcome based process you can eventually get there but not soon and so if you're not going to get there soon, and you have this latent potential in the models what you really need to do is think about let's take the learnings from how humans do things, from what good process looks like.

Speaker 0

你不能完全照搬,因为你需要考虑很多关于优秀代理设计的问题。

You can't copy that exactly because there is a lot of, thinking you have to do about, good agent design.

Speaker 0

现在的模型并不是天生就能在长时间跨度内保持连贯性的。

It's not like the models out of the box today are incredible at being coherent of long horizons.

Speaker 0

确实,这方面有很多关于行为的研究。

There's actually a lot of work there about behaviors for sure.

Speaker 0

你可以设置一些评估,或者将来可能用奖励函数,来检查它是否按照正确的流程执行。

And you can instead put in place certain, know, evals or potentially in the future kind of reward functions that look at whether it followed the process properly or not.

Speaker 0

我举个例子,比如做税务研究这种基础工作,如果你问一个税务问题,智能体肯定能答对。

And maybe the example I mentioned the thread which I'll just say for the audience is imagine you're doing something as basic as tax research, if you ask some tax question the agent could definitely get it right.

Speaker 0

它可能从预训练知识里知道答案,或者读个博客就能答对,但真正的会计师不会信任这种答案。

They could know it from their pre training knowledge, they could read some blog and get it correct, but a real accountant would not trust that.

Speaker 0

他们会要求你引用原始来源。

They would want you to cite the primary source.

Speaker 0

所以即使你100次都答对了,但如果只是靠查维基百科,那家会计事务所也不会雇佣你。所以,他们也不应该雇佣我们。我们认为这很重要,我们的智能体不是靠预训练知识或读博客,而是去查实际法规,用原始来源验证信息,这正是我们希望真正的税务会计师做的。

So even if you got it right a 100 out of a 100 times, that if a person is just getting it right because they're going to Wikipedia, that accounting firm wouldn't hire them and so they shouldn't hire us either and so we think it's really important that no actually our agents are not, learning from the pre training knowledge or reading from a blog they are going to you know the actual code and verifying the information with primary source which is what you would ideally want the real tax accounts to do as well.

Speaker 1

所以你们提出了行为规范这个概念。

So you guys created that concept of behavior specs.

Speaker 1

嗯。

Mhmm.

Speaker 1

那给我们讲讲,这具体是什么?

So walk us through what that is, very practically.

Speaker 1

是不是一个Markdown文件?

Is that a markdown file?

Speaker 1

它长什么样?

What what does it look like?

Speaker 0

对,其实这个想法最初是我联合创始人Matt提出的,大概两年前,我们当时在讨论AutoGI,那时候我们的代理还没有现在这么智能,选择也有限。但即便在那时,你就得考虑,在这个岔路口,你想做出什么样的选择?

Yeah, so the original idea actually my co founder Matt came up with the idea, literally about two years ago we were talking about AutoGI back when we were, even back when we were had agents that weren't fully guess agentic as you think of them today and they, you know, had restricted choices Even back then you still wanted to think about, okay, what kind of choice you wanted to make at this at this fork in the road?

Speaker 0

所以Matt,我们内部其实叫它“元行为”,因为它的意思是,你定义的是一个行为,但它是元层面的,因为它涵盖了代理在所有不同轨迹中会有的所有行为。

And so Matt, we actually used to call it internally meta behaviors, because the idea was that it was a you're defining a behavior but it's at a meta level because it's all the across all the behaviors agent will have, you know, in all the different trajectories.

Speaker 0

所以,这个想法是,与其试图写提示词,不如先对齐元行为是什么。

And, so the idea was that instead of trying to write the prompt, have to first align on what the meta behavior is.

Speaker 0

这其实就是这个概念最初的用途。

And so that was actually the first purpose of this concept.

Speaker 0

我发誓,真的是两年前。

I swear to God literally two years ago.

Speaker 0

后来这个想法慢慢演变,我们最后就叫它“行为”,因为这样更简单一些。

And over time that kind of evolved, and we ended up calling it Behavior just because it's a bit simpler.

Speaker 0

这个想法的核心是,你有一个Markdown文件,在里面写下你希望智能体怎么表现。

And the idea is that you have a markdown file in which you write down how do you want an agent to behave.

Speaker 0

就这么简单。

Simple as that.

Speaker 0

详细程度可以各不相同。

It could be at varying degrees of granularity.

Speaker 0

比如说,你可以写得很具体,像“你需要去查看原始资料”。

So let's say you have something that's like very specific like, you need to go to like look at the primary sources.

Speaker 0

或者你想更具体一点,比如“不,你应该总是去查看国税局的网站”。

Maybe you want to be more specific, maybe you're like no, you should always go look at specifically the IRS website.

Speaker 0

再举个例子,假设你在做PPT,一个行为可以是“在返回PPT之前,你应该把它渲染成图片,这样你就能知道有没有格式问题”。

Or another example could be imagine you're making PowerPoints and a behavior is well before you return the PowerPoint you should render it an image so you know if you made any formatting issues.

Speaker 0

然后你把这个写进一个Markdown文件,理想情况下,这个文件是自包含的。

And, so you put that in a markdown file and ideally that is a markdown file that is now that can be self contained.

Speaker 0

所以,人类可以逐行查看,比如确认这就是我们想要的行为。部分原因在于行为本身其实带有主观性,我们可以稍后深入探讨这一点。

So one that humans can look at in a line like yes, this is the behaviors that we want in part because behaviors are actually subjective exercises, we can talk more about that.

Speaker 0

这既是一个产品层面的问题,也是一个智能层面的问题。

It's just as much of a product thing as it is an intelligence thing.

Speaker 0

然后,评审人员也可以进行检查。他们可以通过观察整个交互过程来判断:嘿,这个代理是否表现出了这种行为?

And then it's something that a judge can look at where they can look the judge can look at a trajectory and say, hey, did the agent exhibit this behavior?

Speaker 0

或者,是否出现了需要表现出该行为的特定条件?

Or did the condition occur that it would need to exhibit this behavior?

Speaker 0

如果是这样的话,它真的表现出那种行为了吗?

And if so, did it actually exhibit that behavior?

Speaker 0

然后你就可以据此给它打分。

And then you can grade it accordingly.

Speaker 1

那这些 Markdown 文件是谁写的,或者谁来监督编写过程呢?

And so who writes the markdown files or supervises the process of writing?

Speaker 1

人类。

Humans.

Speaker 1

好的。

Okay.

Speaker 1

那些人是会计师吗?

And those humans are accountants?

Speaker 0

问得好。

That's a good question.

Speaker 0

这要看情况。

It depends a bit.

Speaker 0

我觉得这是会计师和机器学习研究人员共同合作的结果,在应用层面,因为你不仅仅是在说,比如,行为是你应该去访问网站。

I think that I think it is a combined effort between accountants and ML researchers, you know, at the applied level because you're not just saying, for example, hey the behavior is you should go to the website.

Speaker 0

你可能会说,行为是你应该,比如,对于这类研究,你应该,你知道,生成一个带有完整历史的子代理,因为你需要,你需要建立那个上下文。

You might be saying, hey the behavior is that you should be like, you know, for this type of research you should be, you know, spawning a sub agent with like full history because you need, you need to build up that context.

Speaker 0

就像有很多代理机制在起作用,所以你会遇到这种情况,就是对于人类来说什么是好的流程,但你需要把它转化成代理的语言,然后决定,这里有一个结合点,你也在讨论,比如,代理机制是什么。

Like there's a lot of agent machinery that comes into play and so you kind of have this thing where there is what is the a good process looks like for a human, but then you need to, like, translate it into agent language, and then decide and there's, a combination there where you're also talking about, like, what are the, like, agent mechanics.

Speaker 0

所以我会说这是会计师和机器学习研究人员之间的双重努力。

So I'd say it's a dual effort between accountants and ML researchers.

Speaker 0

我们其实有一个专门的团队,叫会计产品运营。

And we have a whole team actually, it's called, accounting product operations.

Speaker 0

这个团队里的会计们主要就是和研究团队紧密合作,制定评分标准,既包括基于结果的评分标准,也包括行为规范。

Where it's accountants who's, essentially what they do is they work very closely with the research teams to build out rubrics both outcome based rubrics and then also behaviors.

Speaker 1

那你觉得在追求精确性和确保系统不崩溃之间,你是怎么权衡的?

And how do you think about precision versus, making sure that the system doesn't break?

Speaker 1

你刚才提到去查IRS网站。

So you mentioned go check the IRS website.

Speaker 1

有没有可能,现在正确的做法是去IRS网站,但两年后,这个信息可能就换地方了?

Is there a possibility that at some point actually what you should do, you know, your one is go to the IRS website but then in two years from now that will be a different location for the information?

Speaker 0

对,这个问题提得非常好。

No, that's a very very good point.

Speaker 0

这正是为什么这些行为规范实际上不会直接展示给智能体。

Which is exactly why the behaviors are not actually shown to the agent.

Speaker 0

所以行为规范可能会说,你应该去IRS网站。

So the behavior could say, hey, you should go to IRS website.

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Speaker 0

这并不意味着代理被告知要去国税局网站。

That doesn't mean the agent is told to go to IRS website.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

可能去,也可能不去,这取决于情况,但关键是,我认为作为代理系统工程师,你要决定对具体情况要具体到什么程度,显然你更倾向于不那么具体,对吧?

It might be, it might not be, it sort of depends, like, but the point is that the way I think about it is the level of as the kind of agent, you know, systems engineer you are making the decision as to how, specific do you want to be with the situation obviously you prefer to be less specific, right?

Speaker 0

我认为擅长构建代理的人都知道,在边缘情况下,给出原则、原因和更多背景信息,让代理自己解决问题,效果要好得多。

I think as as people who are good at building agents know like it's much better at the margins to be able to give principles and the whys and more context and let them figure it out.

Speaker 0

所以对于行为,你实际上不想定义所有可能发生的事情,而是要说,不不不,我们知道,比如说,你在制作PowerPoint时,在把幻灯片交给用户之前拍张照片,就能发现问题。

And so with behaviors you want to actually not define every possible thing that can happen but just say no no no, We know that for example, let's say you're making PowerPoints, taking a picture of the PowerPoint before you give it to the user is gonna catch issues.

Speaker 0

我们确信这一点。

We know that for a fact.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

所以我们作为代理工程师,要表明立场,说,在代理要做的所有不同事情中,这是我要对你进行评分的那一项。

And so we as the agent engineers are going to take a stand and say out of all the different things you as an agent are going to do, this is the thing I'm gonna grade you on.

Speaker 0

然后你可能在那方面稍微具体一点。

And then maybe you're being a little bit more specific there.

Speaker 0

如果你愿意,你可以更具体,比如指定用这个确切的工具,但理想情况下你不需要这么做。

If you want, you can be more specific, like use this exact tool, but ideally you don't have to.

Speaker 0

这取决于你的系统是如何构建的。

It depends on kind of how your your system is is built.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,具体的程度取决于你想要达成的特定目标,以及这个目标在多大程度上能适用于各种普遍情况。

So I think it I think your level of specificity depends on the maybe, what specific outcome you're sort of trying to drive and how that much that outcome generalizes to the universal situations.

Speaker 0

比如你在做PPT的时候,拍张照肯定能让效果更好。

Like if you're producing PowerPoints, of course taking a picture, like, makes it better.

Speaker 0

不过,假设你的智能体速度特别快呢?

But, let's say instead your agent actually is a super fast agent.

Speaker 0

那拍照就得花时间了。

Well, making a picture takes time.

Speaker 0

所以对于这种极速运行的智能体,你可能就不想让它去拍PPT的照片了,不然时间就从三十秒变成一分钟了。

So maybe a super fast agent you don't want for it to take a picture of the PowerPoint because now you went from it taking thirty seconds to taking one minute.

Speaker 0

但如果你有一个ASIC代理,需要二十分钟,那从二十分钟变成二十分钟三十秒,每次都值得做。

But if you have an ASIC agent that's taking twenty minutes, you went from twenty minutes to twenty minutes thirty seconds, do it every time.

Speaker 0

所以这又回到了我关于产品方面的观点,这不仅仅是智能的问题。

And so this goes back to my point on the product aspect where it's not just an intelligence thing.

Speaker 0

这是一个主观的练习,关于你希望代理在生产环境中如何表现,实际上我认为这就是为什么它对产品构建如此关键。

It is a subjective exercise about how do you want the agents to behave in production broadly and actually I think it's why it's so critical to the product building.

Speaker 1

我们几分钟前谈到OpenAI在2023年的一项工作,需要80万个人工标注。

So we were talking a few minutes ago about that 2023 effort by OpenAI that required 800,000 human labels.

Speaker 1

你们在2026年做的事情有什么不同?

How is what you're doing in 2026 different?

Speaker 0

对,好问题。

So, yeah, good question.

Speaker 0

所以,至少目前,我们并没有主动奖励底层模型。

So we are, today at least, not actively rewarding the underlying model.

Speaker 0

我们目前没有通过奖励这个过程来对我们的模型进行后训练。

So we're not currently post training our own models by rewarding them on this process.

Speaker 0

我确实觉得那是一个非常有意思的研究方向,我们以后可以聊聊,但那不是我们现在正在做的事情。

I do think that's a very interesting area of research, we can talk about that later, but that is not actively what we're doing right now.

Speaker 0

那是我们另外在研究的,不过那更多是未来的事情。

It is something we're actually researching, separately, but that's, more in the future.

Speaker 0

所以如果你退一步看,把智能体构建和上下文工程的工作类比成直接训练模型,是很有帮助的。

And so if you kind of if you maybe take a step back, it's useful to sort of analogize the work of agent building and context engineering to the work of training a model directly.

Speaker 0

我觉得当人们想到上下文的时候,你知道,人们会说提示词、上下文,我觉得大家通常的心理模型是,哦,我写了一些英文告诉模型该做什么。

I think when people think about context, they, you know, people say prompts, context, I think the mental model people have usually is like, oh, I wrote some English on the model what to do.

Speaker 0

我觉得这个心理框架是错的。

I think it's the right the wrong mental framework.

Speaker 0

我喜欢的框架是把它看作训练数据。

I think the framework I like is thinking about it as training data.

Speaker 0

只不过你是在运行时训练模型。

Except you're just training the model at runtime.

Speaker 0

它就是训练数据。

It is training data.

Speaker 0

因为模型是在推理阶段进行学习的,所以总的训练数据量要小得多。

And because you the model's learning at inference time, the total amount of training data is far lower.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

比如,整个系统中智能体在其运行过程中逐步学习或发现的所有上下文信息,显然比用于模型后训练的数据量低好几个数量级。

Like, the whole amount of context in your system that the agent would progressively learn or discover throughout its trajectory obviously orders a magnitude lower than the amount of data that you're training, like post training a model on.

Speaker 0

所以,你实际上是在处理这些数据,并努力确保它们的质量达到最高,以便让智能体展现出你期望的行为。

And so, what you're doing is you're essentially taking this this data and you're trying to ensure that it is of the highest quality to get the agent to exhibit the behaviors that you want it to exhibit.

Speaker 0

显然,数据只是其中的一部分。

And obviously the the data is only one part of it.

Speaker 0

还有那个框架,也就是工具、能力、环境等等这些部分,当然还有你用的是哪个模型之类的。

There's obvious there's the harness, what are the tools, what are the capabilities, the environment, all that part of stuff, obviously which model you're using, things like that.

Speaker 0

所以这里的不同之处在于,我们利用这个信号来改进整个智能体系统,这比试图把这个信号直接作为强化学习的奖励反馈给底层模型要少得多数据量。

And so what's different here is that we're taking this signal and using it to improve the entire agent system, which requires far less data scale than if we were trying to take the signal and more literally reward it in an RL capacity to the underlying model.

Speaker 1

你几分钟前提到了一个评判者,能不能给我们讲讲你是怎么训练这个评判者的,或者怎么指导它去执行任务?我猜大家最想知道的肯定是:谁来评判这个评判者呢?

You mentioned a judge a few minutes ago, maybe walk us through how you train that judge to do what or how you instruct that judge to do what, and I guess the obvious question of like who judges the judge.

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我觉得这不仅适用于行为评估,也适用于一般的结果导向评估。

I think that's true not just for, like behavior evals but also for, you know, outcome based evals in general.

Speaker 0

这个问题问得很好。

It's a great question.

Speaker 0

真希望我们有更多时间深入探讨这个话题。

I wish we had more time, to go deeper on this.

Speaker 0

现实情况是,我们既没时间也没资源去花大量精力把每个裁判都打磨得完美无缺,不过我可以给你一个大致的介绍。

The reality is we just don't have the time or resources to like, spend a huge amount of effort like, you know, perfecting every judge but I'll give you kind of that high level.

Speaker 0

一般来说,你需要建立起一种直觉,来判断裁判的品味是否准确。

Generally, what you do is you need to build an intuition for if the judge's taste is correct.

Speaker 0

我觉得,关于裁判及其品味的研究,是一个很有潜力的后训练研究方向。

And you I do think an interesting area of potential post training research is on judges and potentially, taste there.

Speaker 0

今天,你需要设置好评判系统,让它掌握做决定所需的信息,并且有合适的框架来做这件事。

Today, you need to set up the judge so that it has the information it needs to make the decision and it has the right kind of framework to do that.

Speaker 0

同时,它还得有足够的数据和思维方式来完成这项工作。

And that it has the, data and mentality to do that.

Speaker 0

我给你举个例子,有些行为你可以想象会相当复杂。

So I'll give you an example with behaviors that you can imagine being pretty complicated.

Speaker 0

目前,行为评判的成本相对较高,因为它是一个相当高级的评判系统,实际上也是一个智能体。

So right now at least the behavior judging is relatively expensive because it's a pretty advanced judge in that it is also an agent.

Speaker 0

它不是传统意义上的评判者,它确实是一个智能体,因为它需要查看整个轨迹。

It's not a judge in the traditional sense, it's literally an agent because it has to look at the trajectory.

Speaker 0

所以这相当昂贵。

So it's quite expensive.

Speaker 0

你可以想象,在未来,像Braintrust这样的团队已经开始思考,如何更好地标注轨迹,这样你就能更容易地筛选出可能相关的部分,交给评判系统,而不是让它以某种方式查看整个轨迹。

You can imagine in the future and you know I think folks like Braintrust and others are starting to think about this is like how can you, label trajectories better so you can potentially more easily, filter the trajectory to only the potentially relevant parts to give to a judge instead of having it like look at the whole trajectory in some ways.

Speaker 0

但如果你有一个轨迹,特别是那种时间跨度长、可能包含很多子智能体的轨迹,作为评判者,你需要思考:在这个轨迹中,我应该关注哪里?

But if you have a trajectory especially if you have a long horizon one that might have a lot of sub agents, you as the judge need to think about well where do I go in this trajectory?

Speaker 0

我该怎么理解它呢?

How do I understand it?

Speaker 0

你可能需要以某种形式对它有个整体把握。

You probably want to have a map of it in some form.

Speaker 0

我到底在评判谁呢?

Who am I even judging?

Speaker 0

假设你有一个子代理系统,层级深度大概是七层左右。

Imagine you have like a sub, an agent system with like depth of you know seven.

Speaker 0

你可能会有整整七层子代理,比如我到底是在判断根节点的行为是否得当?

You could have literally seven layers of sub agents like am I judging whether the root behaves properly?

Speaker 0

还是在判断这些其他代理中的某一个?

Am I judging like one of these other agents?

Speaker 0

所以你需要给裁判设计好提示词,甚至可能还要微调一下,让它清楚该去评判哪里,理解行为本身是什么、在什么条件下发生,以及知道怎么判断这个行为有没有出现。

And so you need to actually properly prompt and potentially tune the judge so it has a good understanding of knowing where to go judge, understanding the behavior itself, like what is the condition and understanding how to like, you know, judge whether the behavior occurred.

Speaker 1

这种方法有什么权衡或者代价吗?

Are there any trade offs with that approach?

Speaker 1

所以我想说的是,是的,有一个人工验证的流程确实能保证,或者至少有助于确保一个严谨的方法,这样不太容易出错。

So what comes to mind is, yes, having a human validated process guarantees or at least help secure a rigorous approach that's less likely to fail.

Speaker 1

但同时,你也不会得到像“第37步”那样的结果,就是AI实际上能做得更好、更高效,通过绕过这一步,直接跳过那三个步骤。

At the same time, you are not going to get a Move 37 kind of result where actually the AI would do much better work, much more efficient work by sidestepping, you know, this part and fast forwarding through those three steps.

Speaker 1

那么,这种方法的优缺点和权衡是什么呢?

What are the sort of pros and cons and trade offs?

Speaker 0

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

Speaker 0

我觉得首先,我想确保每个听众都明白一件事,那就是你把一个行为写下来是有成本的,因为这意味着你现在要维护一个状态。

I think for starters, and I get one thing that should be I wanna make sure it's clear I think to to everyone listening is that you writing a behavior down is expensive because it is something where you are now keeping state.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

你需要让它保持最新。

You need to keep it up to date.

Speaker 0

如果你让模型或智能体表现出这种行为的方式是通过上下文,那么现在你可能有重复的状态,这取决于你怎么看。而且因为这种维护负担,你最好尽可能少地定义行为,所以不是说你看看需要做什么,然后说“嘿,我们把所有最佳实践都写下来,看看它有没有做到”,而是你挑出几个你认为最重要的、对生产环境泛化能力最强、影响最大的,然后关注这些,而不是所有东西。

If the way you are, making the model or the agent exhibit this behavior is through context, now you have potentially duplicate states depending how you're thinking about it, and because of that maintenance burden you ideally want have as little behaviours as possible so it's not that you look at what it takes to do texture and you say hey let's write all the best practices down and see if it's doing it it's that you take the couple that you think are most important that have the largest amount of generalization to production and are the most impactful and you care about those, not everything.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得这是很重要的一点。

So I think that's one important part.

Speaker 0

不过理想情况下,如果你做得对,理论上还是给那些“Move 37”留了空间的。

So ideally though, if you do it properly, you still have rooms for, you know, the Move 37s in theory.

Speaker 0

但我觉得还有另一个方面,就是你到底在向别人推销什么?

But I think there's another part here, which is that what are you selling to someone?

Speaker 0

比如说,如果你要雇一个工程师,你在公司里有一套流程,比如你先画个简单的架构图,跟CTO聊一下,得到批准,然后提交一个PR,再把那个PR拆成十个小PR,按顺序合并,确保每个测试都通过,然后部署,这就是流程。

If you are trying to just like if you were to hire, you know, an engineer, and you know, you know, at your job, at the company you have a process and the process is like, you, I'm just making this up but like you write a quick architecture diagram and you like chat with the CTO and you get it approved and you make a PR and you split up the PR in like tens 10, different smaller PRs into a stack and then you merge it in and you make sure every n10 tests you deploy it like that's the process.

Speaker 0

想象一下,一个工程师跑过来跟你说,嘿,这是我的一千行PR,我现在就要合并到生产环境。

Imagine an engineer came to you and they're like, hey, here's my thousand line PR, I'm gonna merge in production right now.

Speaker 0

如果它比你的方案更好呢?如果它是“Move 37”呢?

What if it's better than what you what if it's a Move37?

Speaker 0

它可能比CTO想出来的方案更好,但这并不意味着它就是好的。

It could be better than what the CTO would have came up with But that doesn't mean it's good.

Speaker 0

就是说,这并不意味着CTO或者公司会对这个结果感到满意。

Like, that doesn't good in the sense that doesn't mean the CTO or the company is happy about that result.

Speaker 0

仅仅因为它更好。

Just because it's better.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

因为归根结底,你工作的原因并不是因为某一项单独的工作有多出色,而是因为它能规模化地应用到公司、系统或整个组织中。所以,客户从我们这里买到的,并不是说这会是史上最好的报税方案。

Because at the end of the day, the reason you perform work is not because any individual unit of work is incredible, but because you can scale it to a company, to a system, whatever it is, to an organization and so the thing that, you know someone is buying from us is not this will be the best ever tax return.

Speaker 0

他们买的是那种信心,也就是

They're buying it that, you know, the confidence that

Speaker 1

看起来最漂亮的那个。

The best looking one.

Speaker 0

对,就是那个外观最好的,或者像你说的,它把那些数据搬过来之类的。

Yeah, the best looking one or like it, you know, it moved 37 the TBs over here or something.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

他们买的就是这种一致性和可靠性,以及一种可以信赖的东西。就像对待真人一样,随着时间的推移,他们会越来越信任你,然后逐渐赋予你更多的自主权。

They're buying that it's going to be consistent and reliable and something that they can trust that actually will, they will you know just like with a human they can learn to you know trust more and more and then granted more agency over time.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

而且我觉得,那种信任和可靠性,才是真正需要部署到现实世界里的东西。

And and and I think that that level of trust and reliability, like that's what you need to deploy into the real world.

Speaker 0

你不需要那些Move 37级别的操作。

You don't need the Move 37s.

Speaker 0

那种东西可能在国际数学奥林匹克竞赛或者数学比赛里需要,但在现实经济中干活就不需要了。

You need that maybe at the, you know, Olympiad, like math competitions but not like doing work in the real economy.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

听你这么说,我觉得特别有意思的一点是,你做这些事的时候,其实对底层模型的工作原理并没有真正的了解,对吧?

As I listened to you, of the many things I find fascinating is that, you're doing all of this without having, actual insight about how the underlying model works, right?

Speaker 1

你其实和我们所有人一样,对吧?

Like you sort of like all of us, right?

Speaker 1

你也是在通过模型的行为表现,比如那些痕迹,还有工具调用来猜测和推断,那这到底是怎么运作的呢?

Like you're sort of, guessing and inferring from how the model behaves through like artifacts and judging from tool calls and how does that work?

Speaker 1

那能不能跟我们讲讲,每次模型更新或者新版本发布的时候,你是不是得重新审视一下你之前做的所有事情?

And then maybe walk us through each time a model changes or the next version of the model, you know, gets released, like do you have to then look at everything that you've been doing in the light

Speaker 0

根据那个新模型来重新审视?

of that new model?

Speaker 0

这也许又回到了那个,你知道,Opus 3.0.1.0.03 的问题,因为我确实觉得,在构建智能体的时候,尤其是围绕它建立公司的时候,有一点很重要,就是你不应该感到太意外。

Is that maybe goes back to the like, you know, Opus 3.0.1.0.03 because I do think one thing that's really important when you're building agents but definitely building a company around it is you should you shouldn't be that surprised.

Speaker 0

你应该有一个对世界的认知模型,当事情发生变化时,你应该更新你的模型。

You should have a model of the world and as things change you should update your model.

Speaker 0

但是,要想成功,你知道,你不能一直更新你的模型,你需要有一定的先见之明。

But, to be successful, you know, you can't just update your model all the time, you need to be right a little bit.

Speaker 0

而且我确实认为,如果你真正内化了这些概念,对吧,先别管内部机制,先别管这个NLM,你有一个魔法盒子。

And I I do think that if you really internalize some concepts about this, right, that like you now have this forgetting about the internals for a second, forget about this NLM, you have this magic box.

Speaker 0

你有一个魔法盒子,或者我有时喜欢称之为外星人,你可以把海量数据输入到这个外星人里,它能在那个魔法盒子里进行推理和学习,然后给你输出结果,现在工具调用也显然能用了,你可以把它接入到系统的其他部分。

And you have this magic box or this alien, I like to call it sometimes, and you could send in huge amounts of data into this alien and it will be able to, reason and learn at inference time within that magic box and then come back to you with output that, you know, now that tool calling obviously works and whatnot, you can plug into the rest of the system.

Speaker 0

这基本上就是你需要知道的一切,而且我觉得一旦你真正理解了这意味着什么,并把它推到逻辑的极致,很多事情就会自然而然地浮现出来,因为你开始明白,就像,等等,如果我有这个魔法盒子,我能做这个,那是不是意味着它也能决定去调用另一个魔法盒子呢?

That's kind of all you really need to know and I think once you really appreciate what that means and you take it to its logical conclusion, a lot of stuff starts to fall out of that because you start to understand, it's like, well wait, like, if I have this magic box I can do this does that mean that it could decide to call another magic box?

Speaker 0

你知道,这是否意味着它有可能把多个这样的盒子串联起来,对吧?

You know, does that mean that it could potentially, string together like multiple of them in a row, right?

Speaker 0

这是否意味着它能够利用——显然在那一刻它有一些状态,虽然它是个魔法盒子,但它有激活状态,我们知道这一点,缓存就是这样工作的。

Does that mean it could, you know, leverage, Obviously at that moment it has some, it's a magic box but it has some state, you know, we know this it has an activation state, that's how the caches work.

Speaker 0

所以存在某种激活状态,它必然会偏向当前的轨迹。那么也许在审查时,你想要一个不相关的轨迹,对吧?

So there's some activation state that by definition is going to be biased to that current trajectory And so maybe for review you want an uncorrelated trajectory, right?

Speaker 0

就像一个全新的盒子,它只是很聪明。

Where it's like a new box, and it's just a smart.

Speaker 0

我认为如果你建立了这些关于LLM的直觉,并将它们与组织设计和管理的基本原则结合起来,你就能开始触及智能体构建的前沿。

And I think if you build these kind of LLM intuitions and you combine them with you know maybe basic principles of like organizational design and management, I think you start to get to maybe what is like the frontier of agent building.

Speaker 1

太有意思了。

Fascinating.

Speaker 1

实际上,你是怎么建立这种LLM直觉的?

Practically how do you build that LLM intuition?

Speaker 1

是通过一直读论文,还是和研究人员交流,或者了解前沿技术的走向?

Is that, by, just, reading papers all the time or talking to researchers or like getting a sense for where the state of the art is going?

Speaker 0

对,我觉得其实都不是这些。我觉得关键就在于,我是说,读读推特什么的来了解情况是好的,但我觉得很多人太看重这个了。很多人觉得,哦,我看到了这条推文,看到了这个墨西哥的那个东西。我觉得问题在于,如果没有对事物运作方式和可能性的基本理解,很容易觉得事情变化很大,但实际上并没有。

Yeah I think it's none of that actually I think it is all about I mean I think reading like Twitter and whatnot just to understand is good but I actually think a lot of people over index on that like I think a lot of people they think like oh yeah I saw this tweet, saw this like this in Mexico thing I think the problem is without like a fundamental like rounding in how things work and what is possible it's easy to feel like things are moving around a lot when they're actually not.

Speaker 0

自从o3以来,事情真的没什么大变化。我觉得o3之后几乎所有东西都相对在趋势上,不是说我知道这个确切的趋势,但我觉得都在同一个范式里,自从o3之后没有什么范式转变。

Things have really not changed since o3 I would say almost everything since o3 has been relatively on I don't know what to say on trend and not like I knew this exact trend but I would say it's all within the same paradigm like nothing paradigm shifting has changed since o3.

Speaker 0

我觉得理解它和学习它的最好方法就是在自己的工作中大量使用它们。

And I think the best way to understand it and learn about it is to just use them in your own work a lot.

Speaker 0

尤其是在编程中。

I think especially in coding.

Speaker 0

然后试着理解一些东西,一个好的思维模型是,比如说我试着让一个代理帮我实现一个功能,但它没有按我想要的方式做。

And just trying to understand things like, a good mental model is, let's say I try to, you know, have an agent, you know, influence a feature for me and it didn't do the way I want it to.

Speaker 0

那是为什么?

Like why?

Speaker 0

真正限制的因素是什么?

What is actually the limiting factor?

Speaker 0

你知道,这有点像那个著名的马斯克思维模式。

You know, it's kind of like the the famous, like Elon mindset.

Speaker 0

就是说,你得找到主要的限制因素,然后去解决它。

It's like, okay, like you go to like the main limiting factor and you figure out.

Speaker 0

我觉得如果你用类似的思维方式去对待智能体,去理解为什么它不能自动化这个任务。

Like, I think if if you apply a similar mindset to to agents and you understand, like, why could it not automate this?

Speaker 0

是不是它真的不够聪明?

Was it actually not smart enough?

Speaker 0

可能不是。

Probably no.

Speaker 0

它们挺聪明的。

They're pretty smart.

Speaker 0

它们已经聪明了好一阵子了。

They've been pretty smart for a while.

Speaker 0

所以,如果你把这种思维方式应用到自己的工作中,我觉得这对建立直觉很有帮助,而且我在面试别人的时候也看到了这一点。

And so once you if you, like, apply that mindset to your own work, I find that is quite useful for building intuition and I see that actually with you know people I interview.

Speaker 0

很多直觉最好的人,确实很多有机器学习背景,但那些没有背景的人,很多都是特别擅长自动化自己工作的人,特别擅长思考,特别擅长理解要构建什么样的系统。比如,我在Data Driven做过一个关于本体的演讲,大概一年半前吧,我觉得有很多人在自己的数据和代码库中思考本体,那些积极思考的人,不只是想着怎么提示模型,而是想着怎么构建系统,他们就会开始建立起很好的直觉。

A lot of the people with the best Asian intuition actually, yes a lot of people come from ML backgrounds but people who don't, a lot of them are ones who are just really good at automating their own work, really good at thinking about it, really good at understanding like what is the system to build like, you know, I did a talk at Data Driven about ontologies whatever year year and a half ago or something and I think you know there are a lot of people who think about ontologies in their own data in their own repo and like those people who are like actively thinking not just how do I prompt the model but how do I build a system they start to build really good intuitions.

Speaker 1

所以我们确保在对话结束前把它讲清楚。

So we make sure to cover it before the end of the conversation.

Speaker 1

你具体在Braintrust上开源了什么?能带我们看看这个项目吗?比如人们在哪里找到它、它的起源是什么,以及你为什么特别选择跟Braintrust合作?

What is it exactly that you're open source with Braintrust like walk us through the project where people find it, the genesis of it, why are you partnering with Braintrust specifically on this?

Speaker 0

回到行为这个概念,其实你可以用Markdown把行为写下来,它既是一个规格说明,也是一个评分标准。

If we go back to the idea of behaviors, the idea is that you can actually write down in markdown what is a it is actually both a spec and a rubric.

Speaker 0

我们管这个叫规格,有些人会问,这不就是评分标准吗?

We call this specs and there are some people who ask, isn't this a rubric?

Speaker 0

对,确实是。

And it is.

Speaker 0

它两者都是。

It's both.

Speaker 0

之所以两者都是,是因为它不只是用来给智能体打分或者奖励智能体,还用来统一人的认知。

The reason it's both is because it is not just used to grade or potentially reward the agent, it's also used to align the humans.

Speaker 0

我觉得这一点被低估了。

I think that is an underrated point.

Speaker 0

就像我们之前聊到的,你希望智能体表现出什么样的行为,这其实是个主观的问题。

In that, how you want the agent to behave as we talked about earlier is actually a subjective question.

Speaker 0

所以,内部需要建立一套流程,让所有人都达成共识,比如确认这就是最终的产品标准。

And so, internally it's it's you need to build processes to all agree on hey, like this is the product, right?

Speaker 0

你希望智能体具体怎么表现?还是回到刚才那个快速验证PPT的例子。

How do you want the agent to behave going back to the example about you know the fast PowerPoint verification?

Speaker 0

因此,你需要制定一个标准并把它们写下来。这个项目就是这么来的,当时我跟Braintrust Encore的CEO喝咖啡,说实话我记不清起因了,但我当时就在跟他讲这个概念。因为我们在内部也在用这套方法,我觉得挺酷的,就跟他分享了。

And so, you want a standard to kind of write that down and the the project kind of came about because I was, actually having coffee with the CEO of Braintrust Encore and I forget why honestly but I was like, I still tell you, I was like, I was explaining this concept to him, I was talking about this because we were doing this internally and I thought it was very cool.

Speaker 0

他对此非常兴奋。你知道,我内部一直在思考的一个问题是,我觉得我们做了很多前沿的工作,但很少对外提及,因为说实话,我们一直都在忙。

And he got pretty excited about it and, you know, one thing that I had internally that we've trying to think about is we, I think, do a lot of really cutting edge work, but it's not something we talk about much because, to be honest, we're working all the time.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

就在我们开始录制之前,你正在展示你和联合创始人Matt之间的一些Slack聊天记录。

Right before we started recording, you were showing some internal slags between your co founder, Matt, and yourself.

Speaker 1

如果我没猜错的话,Matt在凌晨四点给你发了Slack,内容是关于提示词自由度的因素。

And if I may disclose them, like Matt was sending you a Slack at 4AM and It was prompt free factors.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

而且那是昨晚的事。

And that was last night.

Speaker 1

所以,我们录制的时候是周日晚上,而你早上6点就回复了那条Slack消息。

So it was a Sunday night as we were recording this and and you're and you should have you were replying it to to that, Slack at, 6AM.

Speaker 1

所以,是的。

So, yes.

Speaker 1

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 1

不。

No.

Speaker 1

Basis的联合创始人之间真是996工作制啊。

996 in full action amongst the co founders of Basis.

Speaker 0

是的。

Yes.

Speaker 0

对。

Yes.

Speaker 0

对。

Yes.

Speaker 0

我们其实没有996。

We we are, it's this there's not there's no 996.

Speaker 0

对我和Matt来说,是全天候的。

It's for for for for Matt and I, it's it's 247.

Speaker 0

对于公司其他人来说,大家工作很努力,但绝对不是996。

For the rest of the company, it's it's people work hard but it's not a it's definitely not a not a 996.

Speaker 0

所以我们想多聊聊这个,分享我们在做的事情。我们资源有限,没法大规模宣传,所以我就说,我觉得这对Braintrust,甚至整个行业都很有用。因为如果你有一个标准,人们可以定义它,然后自动被吸收到可观测性平台、监控平台里。对于可能不太先进的人来说,也可以有现成的评判器,或者定义行为的方式,你不需要自己配置评判器,可以直接让它帮你评判,然后看结果。

And so, know, we we wanted to talk about it more and just share what we're doing and we, you know, we don't have a lot of resources to to like blast out, to people and so we were talking I was like well I actually think this could be really good for you know useful for Braintrust and honestly the whole industry because if you have a standard, that could be something that people define and can get automatically, you know slurped up into observability platforms, monitoring platforms and you know for people maybe who are less advanced it could also, you know, have out of the box judges or, you know, ways to define hey, here are the behaviors and you don't have to configure your own judge you can actually get it get it to judge it for you and see the results.

Speaker 0

他听了之后挺兴奋的,所以这就是合作的由来。

And so he got pretty excited about that and so that's where, the collaboration came from.

Speaker 0

这就是那个开源仓库里有的东西。

So that's what the open source repo has.

Speaker 0

里面有一些小例子,还有一个你可以直接用的示例评判器,以及一些写好的行为案例,你可以拿来参考并在此基础上自己构建。

It has, you know, a couple small examples, it has, an example judge that you can use, it has examples of actually written behaviors that you can leverage and sort of build your own.

Speaker 0

我觉得思考如何采纳这个标准很有用,但更重要的是要转变思维模式,别再觉得运行十个小时的代理就是个黑箱了。

And I think it is useful to think about how to adopt the standard but I think it is also maybe more importantly thinking about how to adopt the mindset of you know not thinking that an agent operating over ten hours is a black box.

Speaker 0

它根本不是黑箱。

It's not.

Speaker 0

它产生了海量的数据,如果你不了解它具体是怎么干活的,那对你们的客户其实是不负责任的。

It has a lot a lot a lot of data and you're probably doing a disservice to your customers if you don't understand like how it's going about the work.

Speaker 1

你希望人们怎么使用这个开源项目呢?

And what would you want people to do with this open source project?

Speaker 1

大概是贡献代码,或者在自己的项目里用它吧?

Presumably contribute to it, use it for their own purposes?

Speaker 1

那它怎么才能成为行业标准呢?

Like how does this become an industry standard?

Speaker 1

对,确实是这样。

Yeah, it's

Speaker 0

这个问题问得好。

a great question.

Speaker 0

其实我也不太清楚。

I don't actually know.

Speaker 0

我觉得最酷的事情就是大家能往里面贡献想法。

I think the coolest thing would be for people to contribute ideas to it.

Speaker 0

我觉得还有很多工作要做。

I think there's a lot of work left to do.

Speaker 0

这还只是个开始。

Think it's just the beginning.

Speaker 0

我之前提到过几件事,但还有很多事情要做,比如怎么做出好的评判标准,怎么正确地标注和分析轨迹,让评判标准更容易理解,因为按照目前的成本,你没法在所有生产环境中运行它,因为它要对每条轨迹都进行评判。

I mentioned a couple things earlier but there's so much to do around one how you make good judges, two like how do you properly label and dissect you know trajectories to make it easier for judges to understand because at the current level of expense you couldn't run this in all of production for example because it's running judges on every single trajectory.

Speaker 0

但我觉得在行为标准之上还有很多工作可以展开。

But there's a lot that can be done I think with building out the work that sits on top of the behaviors.

Speaker 0

而且我觉得,我们故意把标准做得比较灵活,就像技能一样,只是一个Markdown文件。

And I think also just seeing, you know, we purposely tried to make the standard relatively flexible, similar to skills, where it is just a markdown.

Speaker 0

就像没有过度拟合,嘿,你必须要有这五个确切的词,你可以让它非常宽泛,也可以让它非常具体,只要它仍然是自包含的,让评判者能够看到行为并知道其展示的条件是否满足,如果满足,它是否被展示或没有被展示,只要它有这些,就有很多回旋余地,所以我认为我们想要的是灵活性。

Like there's not an overfit hey and you need to have these exact five words like you can make it very broad and you can make it you know very specific, as long as you're as long as it is still self contained to the point that a judge could look at the behavior and actually know like was the condition for it to be exhibited met and if so like did it get exhibited or did not get exhibited and as long as it has that like there's a lot of leeway there and so I think that's we wanted that to be flexible.

Speaker 1

AI 构建者在构建自主的长期任务智能体时,还应该考虑什么?

What else should AI builders think about as they build autonomous, long horizon agents?

Speaker 1

我们谈到了评判者,谈到了行为。

So we talked about judges, we talked about behavior.

Speaker 1

你刚才提到了本体论,你在 Data Driven NYC 的演讲中也提到了,作为智能体生活的世界。

You just mentioned ontology, which in your talk at Data Driven NYC, you had mentioned as well as a world for agents to live in.

Speaker 1

这适合放在哪里?

Where does that fit

Speaker 0

在整体图景中?

in the picture?

Speaker 0

是的,它们非常重要。

Yeah, they're super important.

Speaker 0

很多人看到这个词,听到或想到智能体时,他们的心智模型总是会想到编程智能体,因为那是每个人的经验,至少是可能收听这个播客的人的经验,人们会想到编程智能体。

A lot of people when they see the word, when they hear when they think about agents, their mental model always goes to coding agents because that's everyone's experience with at least the people who probably listen to this podcast, like people think about coding agents.

Speaker 0

编码代理很有意思,因为它们显然有一个框架,被部署进去,有特定的工具,还有在上下文中编码的特定行为,对吧?

Coding agents are interesting because they obviously have a harness, get shipped in, they have certain tools, they have certain behaviors encoded in them in the context, right?

Speaker 0

顺便说一下,Codecs 是开源的,我强烈建议大家去看看那个开源仓库。

Can Codecs by the way is open source, I highly recommend people go look at the look at the open source repo.

Speaker 0

但它们不控制自己的运行时训练数据。

But they don't control their run time training data.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

因为它们的运行时训练数据,回到我之前打的比方,就是它们的上下文,实际上是它们正在处理的代码库。

Because their run time training data, which goes back to my analogy earlier, which is your context, is actually the repo they're working on.

Speaker 0

所以你可以让同一个代理,所谓的同一个代理,在一个代码库上表现还行,在另一个代码库上却表现非常出色,因为那个代码库有更好的运行时训练数据。

And so you could have codecs, the same agent quote unquote, on one codebase perform, you know, somewhat well and then another codebase performs spectacularly because that codebase is has much better one time training data.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

我。

I.

Speaker 0

嗯。

E.

Speaker 0

它可能有很好的技能,或者对代码库的操作有很好的了解,因为那里没有矛盾、混乱之类的东西,所以代码库的本体论对工程师来说一直很重要。

It has potentially, you know, good skills or good like, you know, context about you know how to operate in the code base because, there isn't like contradictions and confusions whatever it is and so, the ontology of your code base, it always mattered for engineers.

Speaker 0

对于真正优秀的智能体来说,这一点同样重要,甚至更重要。

It matters just as much, if not more, for for really good agents over time.

Speaker 0

实际上,如果你考虑非编码智能体,我认为这又上升了一个层次。

That actually I think goes up another level if you're thinking about non coding agents.

Speaker 0

因为在编码中,你不拥有运行时训练数据。

Because in coding, you don't own the runtime training data.

Speaker 0

而在非编码中,你拥有。

In non coding, you do.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

比如,智能体在运行时看到的数据,如果是Basis智能体,那么Basis拥有这些数据。

Like, of the data, quote unquote, that an agent sees when it's when it's a Basis agent, Basis owns.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

这是我们必须确保运行良好的训练数据。

It's training data that we have to ensure works really well.

Speaker 0

再说一次,我说训练数据,其实指的是那种手写的上下文,对吧?

And again, when I say training data, I mean, like, effectively handwritten context, right?

Speaker 0

或者是你更广泛的渐进式披露中的一部分,有些可能是手写的,有些不是,反正就是那些东西。

Or things that are part of your broader progressive disclosure, some, you know, could be handwritten, some could not be, whatever it is.

Speaker 0

而且因为代理总是从零开始,设计一个对代理友好的本体论,对于构建长期运行的东西来说非常关键。

And the because the agent is always starting from scratch, designing that ontology in a way that is ergonomic for the agent is super key to building something that's long running.

Speaker 0

这既包括那些静态的数据,比如所有代理都有的技能之类的,但一旦你面对真正长的时间跨度,比如一个状态化代理可能运行几个月,从几天到几个月,那么突然你就有了一个本体,回到Memento的例子,就是代理留给自己的信息,如果你只运行几个小时,可能只是几条笔记,但如果你运行几个月,那就是文件夹了,对吧?

That's both like the data that is like maybe static like skills and whatnot that all agents have but also once you get the really long horizons if you're talking about you know a stateful agent that's maybe operating over months, days to months, now suddenly you have an ontology of going back to the Memento example of information the agents left for itself which if you're operating for maybe a couple hours could be a couple notes, if you're operating for months you're talking folders, right?

Speaker 0

而且你有大量的知识和上下文,描述了代理的亲身经历,所以这个新代理,虽然说是新的,但它在启动时只有非常压缩的上下文,它必须回到整个经历的状态中,所以设计本体让它容易做到这一点,以及你编码的行为,确保它做得好,这些就是让它真正运行得非常好的关键。

And you have so much knowledge and context that describes like the lived experiences of the agent that like suddenly this new agent, well new, that is standing up with you know effectively very compacted context has to get it back into the state of mind of its entire lived experience and so the ontology designed to make it easy for it to do that and the behaviors you encode that you know properly ensures it's doing that well are sort of the key to to making it work really really well.

Speaker 1

设计本体到底是什么意思?

What does that even mean designing an ontology?

Speaker 1

本体论实际上是什么?

An ontology practically is what is this?

Speaker 1

是图数据库吗?

It's a graph database?

Speaker 1

是一系列关系吗?

It's a series of relationships?

Speaker 0

对,可以有很多不同的形式。

Yeah, could be a lot of different it could be there are different formats.

Speaker 0

我觉得最简单的理解方式就是把它看作一个文件系统,里面有一定的结构。

I think the the simplest way to think about it is honestly just a file system, in which you you have like some structure.

Speaker 0

显然,大多数人用的是虚拟文件系统,所以灵活性很大,文件和文件夹上还可以关联其他类型的元数据,对吧?

Obviously most people you do virtual file systems and so you have a lot of flexibility there so there could be other types of metadata associated with the files and the folders, right?

Speaker 0

如果你愿意,也可以有节点和连接器,就像某种图数据库一样。

You could there could be you know connectors in nodes and like some graph DB if you wanted.

Speaker 0

当然,也可以有嵌入向量。

Obviously there could also be embeddings.

Speaker 0

有这么多不同的数据来源,你可以用来帮助丰富内容。

There's so many different, you know, sources of of data that you can get to, like, help enrich.

Speaker 0

而且现在,顺便说一句,随着模型越来越便宜,越来越多的这些工作实际上可以通过推理来完成,而不是依赖像图或嵌入这样的确定性的东西。

And now, by the way, as models are getting cheaper and cheaper, more and more of that actually can just be done using inference instead of using determined like things like graphs or things like embeddings.

Speaker 0

你知道,如果Luna的成本是免费的,那么突然你可以在整个本体上运行Luna,为代理总结内容之类的。

You know, you have if Luna costs is free, then suddenly you could run Luna's across your entire ontology and summarize stuff for the agent up or things like that.

Speaker 0

所以这就是我大概的想法。

And so that's kind of how I would think about it.

Speaker 0

也许还有一点,本体不仅仅指文件夹的结构。

And maybe also one more piece, it's not just the the ontology doesn't just mean the structure of the folders.

Speaker 0

传统上,本体还涉及语言,对吧?

In ontology traditionally it's the it's also like the language, right?

Speaker 0

比如对象和概念是什么?

Like what are the objects and the concepts?

Speaker 0

因为归根结底,如果你在运行时进行训练,你需要确保不会混淆概念,而且事情大体上要合理,所以这就是我说的定义世界的意思,对吧?

Because at the end of day, if you're being trained at runtime, you need to ensure you're not confusing concepts together and that like things kind of generally make sense and so you're that's what I mean by defining the world, right?

Speaker 0

你在定义智能体在探索周围世界时可能会看到什么。

You're defining, what the agent can expect to see as it goes and explores the kind of world around it.

Speaker 1

你之前提到过,智能体的内部文档必须像代码库一样对待。

You mentioned somewhere that internal documentation for agents has to be treated like a code base.

Speaker 1

删掉一个关键段落,智能体就坏了,就像删掉一行代码一样。

Delete a crucial paragraph and you break the agent just like deleting a line of code.

Speaker 1

这些文档是本体之外的东西,智能体会像调用工具一样去搜索吗?

Is that documentation something outside the ontology that the agent goes search like a tool call?

Speaker 1

这具体是怎么运作的,最佳实践是什么?

How does that all work and what are the best practices?

Speaker 0

对,这是个好问题。

Yeah, that's a good question.

Speaker 0

先快速区分一下,我刚才说的本体和历史,更多是指基础产品内部和生产产品里的情况。

So just to quickly separate the just now when I was talking about the ontologies and like historical, I kind of was referring more to, you know, inside of like the basis product and like the kind of like production product.

Speaker 0

至于内部使用智能体,比如编码智能体,或者我们可能做的其他内部智能体。

In terms of like internal use of agents, let's say coding agents, or maybe other internal agents that we might make.

Speaker 0

这里有点意思,因为根据你的设置,你的环境可能不太受你的本体论控制。

There, it's kind of interesting because you're in depending on what you've set up, your environment might be less controlled by your ontology.

Speaker 0

因为正如你所说,在现实世界中,你必须去访问像Linear、Gong、Pylon这些不同的工具。

Because to your point, you know, in the real world you have to go and access like linear and Gong and Pylon and all these different things.

Speaker 0

所以,我认为对于内部代理来说,关键之一就是要非常清楚什么是权威的,什么不是权威的。

And so, I think one of the keys for internal agents is having a very keen understanding of what is canonical versus what is not canonical.

Speaker 0

就像如果我是一个刚加入组织的人,我可以去读所有的Gong记录。

And so, just like if I'm a human who joins an organization, I could go and read all the Gongs.

Speaker 0

但我们今天的销售策略是什么?

But what is our sales strategy today?

Speaker 0

如果你看两年前的Gong记录,你会得到很多背景信息。

If you watch the Gongs from two years, you'll get a lot of context.

Speaker 0

但你不会知道当前的销售策略是什么。

But you won't know what your current sales strategy is.

Speaker 0

肯定有一些权威的文档。

There must be some canonical, piece of documentation.

Speaker 0

实际上,很多时候人类是通过跟别人聊天来学习的,你慢慢就懂了。

In practice, a lot of times humans learn this by just like talking to people and you kind of learn stuff.

Speaker 0

但对智能体来说,这很难做到。

But with agents, it's hard to get that.

Speaker 0

更重要的是,如果你想要真正的组织智能,你不会希望智能体从一个人那里听到一种说法,从另一个人那里听到另一种说法。

And more importantly, if you want real organizational intelligence, you don't want an agent hearing one thing from one person and another thing from another person.

Speaker 0

或者让他们有不同的书面记录,比如当前的销售话术是什么,我们怎么做演示文稿,怎么写邮件。

Or having them have kind of different written records of like what is the current, you know, sales pitch how do we make our decks, do we make our emails.

Speaker 0

你需要一个唯一的权威来源,这就是为什么我认为对于真正的原生AI公司,尤其是在未来——今天我觉得还太早——但尤其是在未来,清楚理解你公司的核心规范是什么,并将其组织成一个合理的本体论,确保它像代码一样保持更新,我认为这最终会成为公司内部人类最重要的职责之一。

You need one canonical source and that's why I think for true Asian native companies, especially in the future, today I think it's still quite early, but especially in the future, having a clear understanding of what your company canon is and organizing that in an ontology that makes sense and ensuring that that is kept up to date just like code in some form I think ends up becoming one of the most important parts of a human inside of a company.

Speaker 1

而且在Basis团队里,你招的人做的是一些两年前根本不存在的工作,比如语言架构师或智能体经理。

And within the Basis teams you're hiring for jobs that literally did not exist, two years ago, like language architects or agent managers.

Speaker 1

这些人是谁?

Who are those people?

Speaker 1

他们是做什么的?

What do they do?

Speaker 1

那他们需要什么样的背景呢?

And what's a good background for them?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

我们需要很多这样的人。

We need a lot of them.

Speaker 0

所以如果你在听,并且想加入的话,请一定要联系我。

So if you're listening and you wanna join, please please, like, hit me up.

Speaker 0

好问题。

Great question.

Speaker 0

我们还在摸索中。

We're still figuring that out.

Speaker 0

这并不容易。

It's not it's not easy.

Speaker 0

以下是我目前知道的。

Here's what I know.

Speaker 0

我觉得这个最近可能挺火的,但我觉得真正重要的一个技能就是好的系统思维。

You need I think this is probably gotten someone in vogue recently, but I think one thing one skill that really matters is, good systems thinking.

Speaker 0

那好的系统思维从哪来呢?

And where does good systems thinking come from?

Speaker 0

它来自于那些不得不去思考某种抽象概念、某个系统,并且设计得能在各种情况下都能运作的人。

It comes from people who have had to, think about some abstraction, some system, something and design in such a way that it performs in a plethora of situations.

Speaker 0

所以很明显,如果你是个特别好的工程师,工程就是系统思维。

So, obviously, if you're a really good engineer, like, engineering is systems thinking.

Speaker 0

不过我觉得历史上大部分工程其实不完全是基于系统思维的,你知道,更多是偏向执行层面的。

Now, I think the majority of engineering historically has not been really systems thinking based, you know, it's been a little bit more execution oriented.

Speaker 0

但如果你想想最难的工程,比如,我在设计系统会是什么样子,我在努力创造正确的抽象。

But if you think about, like, the hardest engineering, like, hey, I'm trying to design, like, what the systems are gonna look like, I'm trying to, like, create the right abstraction.

Speaker 0

那真的非常依赖系统思维。

That really is high on systems thinking.

Speaker 0

但并不是只有这个职业是这样的。

But it's not the only profession that's like that.

Speaker 0

我觉得法律其实也挺像这样的。

I, I think law actually is kinda like that.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,在很多方面,我觉得开国元勋们可能会是非常好的上下文工程师或代理管理者,因为你得写一段英文,这段英文会被律师、法官等人在运行时解读无数次。

You know, in many ways I think about I think maybe the founding fathers would have been really good, context engineers or agent managers because you had to write, you know, a piece of English that was gonna be, you know, interpreted at run time literally millions of times by lawyers and judges and whatnot.

Speaker 0

所以如果你在写法律,我不是说某个政客,如果你真的在尝试写一部法律,并且试图写好它,你就是在尝试用英文写出某种东西,能在各种情况下以恰到好处的抽象层次进行概括。

And so if you're writing a law, and I don't mean like, you know, some politician, if you're actually trying to write a law and trying to write a well, you're trying to like somehow write something in English that will abstract at just the right level across the universe of situations.

Speaker 0

而且你还得对司法系统有心理理论,去思考他们会怎么解读它。

And you have to have like theory of mind over the judicial system to think about like how they'll interpret it.

Speaker 0

你知道吗,有趣的是,你在某些机场会看到一些标志,上面写着不要带枪,不要带剑,不要带这个那个,列出一大堆东西,就像你列出一堆僵硬的规则一样。所以同样,你可以列出50条僵硬的规则,或者你可以写出一个恰到好处的抽象,完美地覆盖所有情况。

You know, it's funny you'll look in certain airports and you know sometimes they'll have these signs it's like you know don't bring a gun, don't bring a you know don't bring a sword, don't bring blah blah blah and it's like you list out 30 things to your point on brutal rules And so same thing, can list out like 50 brittle rules or you can like write the right abstraction that somehow covers it just perfectly.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得,任何需要你以那种方式思考抽象的事情,都是成为优秀系统工程师的好练习。

So so I think anything where you need to think in abstractions in that way, I think is good practice, for being a good systems engineer.

Speaker 0

想想看,那些管理过世界上最复杂Excel模型的人,说实话跟这也差不了太多。

Think, know, people who've had to manage like the most complex Excel models in the world is honestly not that dissimilar either.

Speaker 0

所以我觉得,有很多潜在背景都可以培养这种能力。

So I think there's a lot of potential potential backgrounds for it.

Speaker 1

你刚才提到数据驱动的时候,说的是你们部署的智能团队。你说在公司里部署智能体,就像招了三百个才华横溢但毫无背景知识的外星员工,所以才叫部署智能团队。

I think data driven when you spoke you were talking about your deployed intelligence team, and, you were saying deploying agents, at a firm, was like onboarding 300 brilliant alien employees who have no context, hence the deployed intelligence team.

Speaker 1

那这些人具体是做什么的?

So what do those people do?

Speaker 1

他们现在还在吗?还是说这个概念已经演变了?

Are they still around or is that concept evolved?

Speaker 0

没有没有,当然还在。

No no no, of course.

Speaker 0

DI团队真的很棒。

The DI team is awesome.

Speaker 0

我觉得直到今天,我都不该再去搜这个词了,但我们确实提出了“部署智能”这个说法。

I think to this day, I shouldn't need to Google it, but, I we definitely came up with the term deployed intelligence.

Speaker 0

我知道是因为你搜一下,排第一的公司就是我们。

I know because if you Google it, are the first company that that comes up.

Speaker 0

这名字挺酷的。

It's a cool name.

Speaker 0

我不知道有没有其他人用这个名字,我觉得它其实还没流行起来,但它的意思不是FDE。

I don't know if other people have taken on the name, I don't think it's actually caught on yet, but the idea is it's actually it's not FDEs.

Speaker 0

所以不是那种进来帮你定制东西的工程师。

So it's not like engineers who are coming in and building something custom for you.

Speaker 0

也不是现在有些公司里那种所谓的“代理项目经理”,我就不点名了,他们就是拿着代理构建器来帮你搭个代理。

It's also not, this kind of like agent PMs you see now at some companies that I won't name, where it's like, you know, these like PMs quote unquote are kind of coming in and like building an agent sort of for you using an agent builder.

Speaker 0

其实两者都不是。

It's actually neither of those.

Speaker 0

而是那些对职业有深刻理解和共鸣的人,知道怎么建立好的流程,也知道当你突然可以把某些事情交给代理时,怎么才能成功,对吧?

It's it's people who have a deep empathy and understanding of the profession, of like what it takes to put in place good process, and what it takes to be like successful when suddenly you can start to offload certain things to to agents, right?

Speaker 0

所以DI团队的工作就是和我们的会计事务所合作,帮他们过渡到这个新时代,对吧?

And so TI team's job is to come work with our accounting firms to help them transition into this new era, right?

Speaker 0

我们给了他们魔法,但如果不教他们怎么利用这个魔法,不只是日常使用,而是它如何改变事务所的本质,会不会改变他们能接什么业务、雇什么人、怎么扩展成大家都想成为的未来事务所?

We're giving them magic, but if we don't teach them how to leverage the magic, not just in the day to day, but how it changes the nature of the firm, does it change, what kind of business they can take on, who they hire, how can they scale to be that firm of the future that that everyone wants to be?

Speaker 0

这就是DI团队和人们紧密合作要做的事情,因为让他们自己去学或者自己做是不公平的。

That's what the DI team works really closely with people, to do because it's it's not it wouldn't be fair to ask them, to like go and, you know, learn that themselves or do that themselves.

Speaker 0

相反,他们带来了大量关于自己公司的知识,了解过往的运作方式,当然还有他们的团队。我们可以把这些和他们结合起来,再加上我们部署智能体的专业知识,最终打造出真正处于前沿地位的会计师事务所。

Instead they bring a lot of the knowledge about their firm, about how things have worked, obviously their people, and we can combine that with our knowledge and how to deploy agents and I think together get to something where it can be a really really frontier accounting firm.

Speaker 1

说到前沿领域,既然我们快结束这次对话了,我很想花点时间深入聊聊这个话题。

Speaking of frontier, maybe as we start getting to the end of this conversation, would love to spend a little bit of time on that.

Speaker 1

你知道的,2026年的一个大热点就是自我提升这个概念。

You know, obviously a big topic in 2026 is the concept of self improvement.

Speaker 1

在你的整体规划中,特别是在基础模型和自主智能体方面,这占据着怎样的位置?

Where does that fit in your picture Basis and with Autonomous Agent?

Speaker 1

我觉得你提到过,智能体会对其他智能体发展出一种心智理论。

I think you talked about agents developing a theory of mind about other agents.

Speaker 1

所以从系统层面来看,能给我们描绘一下自我提升具体是什么样的吗?

So at a system level, paint that picture for us, what does self improvement look like?

Speaker 0

对。

Yeah.

Speaker 0

其实我们内部在讨论我之前提到的那些研究方向时……

We actually internally, one of our, in the thread I talked about some of our research directions.

Speaker 0

我们一个重要的研究方向就是如何真正实现闭环,我们喜欢这么叫它。

One of our big research directions is how do you actually close the loop as we like to call it.

Speaker 0

从“嘿,这个代理犯了错”或者“表现不佳”之类的,到我们改进系统去解决这个问题。

Going from Hey, an agent made a mistake or not performing or whatever to you know, we've gone and improved the system to do that.

Speaker 0

我觉得这个闭环会很快实现。

And I think that closing the loop is gonna happen pretty fast.

Speaker 0

我不知道整个闭环能不能完全闭合,但我觉得到年底应该会相当接近。

Think you'll have like I don't know about the entire loop being closed, but I think you'll be relatively close by end of year.

Speaker 0

我觉得随着代理对自身以及对其他代理的心智理论越来越完善,会有两件事发生。

I think that So as agents are getting better theory of mind over themselves and therefore other agents, you have two things happening.

Speaker 0

第一,在运行时,它们能更好地协调子代理,也能更好地调节自己的环境;同时,它们也变成了更好的上下文工程师。

One is, at runtime they're being better at orchestrating sub agents and also regulating their own environment for themselves, but it also means they're becoming better context engineers.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

它们变成了更好的工具链工程师。

They're becoming better harness engineers.

Speaker 0

现在,他们在构建智能体系统方面的能力,比他们在开发大多数软件方面的能力要差得多得多。

Right now, they are far far far worse at engineering agent systems than they are at engineering most software.

Speaker 0

差远了。

Far worse.

Speaker 0

因为,说白了,这种工作太新颖了,在他们的训练数据里根本没多少。

Because, by definition, like, that kind of work, which is so novel, has not seen a large amount in their in their training data.

Speaker 0

所以他们的直觉非常差。

And so they have very bad intuition.

Speaker 0

其实,我觉得很多做智能体的人犯的错误是,他们有一种奇怪的直觉,觉得上下文里有点乱码或者智能体有点乱,好像比代码里有点乱更能接受。你会看到有人因为代码文件没抽象好就抓狂,但他们的上下文却是一团糟,这太搞笑了,因为上下文实际上影响运行时的表现,而代码的组织方式并不影响运行时的表现。

Actually, think a lot of the mistakes a lot of agent builders make is, you know, they, they have this weird intuition that like slop in your context or your agent is somehow more acceptable than slop in your code and you'll see people like freaking out over, you know a a code file that isn't abstracted properly and yet their context is like total shit, which is hilarious because the context actually affects the performance at runtime, the organization of code does not affect the performance at runtime.

Speaker 0

所以,我觉得,很明显,因为长期养成的习惯,很多工程师把代码看得比英文(提示词)更宝贵。

And so, I think a lot of, you know, obviously because of, built up, beha- you know, behaviors, a lot of engineers, they they they treat the the the code as more precious than the English.

Speaker 0

但实际上英文(提示词)更宝贵,因为英文(提示词)影响表现,代码不影响表现,对吧?

When actually the English is more precious because the English affects the performance, the code does not affect the performance, right?

Speaker 0

如果逻辑一样的话,代码不影响表现。所以,我觉得随着智能体变得更好,他们也会更擅长这种工程,就是怎么构建智能体系统,到那时你才能真正开始闭环。

If the logic assuming the logic is the same it does not affect the performance and so, I think as agents get better and they get better this type of engineering of like how do you build agent systems, you'll start to actually be able to close the loop.

Speaker 0

因为要形成闭环,你得收集反馈信号,而且需要大量的信号。

Because in order to close the loop, right, you need to take the signal that you are getting, and you need a lot of signal.

Speaker 0

行为层面的数据就是获取更多信号的一种方式。

One of the pieces of behavior, one of the points of behaviors is a way to get more signal.

Speaker 0

如果你只靠最终结果来评估,那得到的信号就太少了。

Whereas if you only have outcome based evals, your signal is pretty sparse.

Speaker 0

所以,怎么把这些信号都利用起来,真正去优化你的系统呢?

So how can you take all of that signal and actually now use it to, improve your system, right?

Speaker 0

你可以把它推广到整个系统中,这可以通过一个智能体来完成,比如更新上下文、改变工具的性质、更新测试框架等等。

You proliferate it throughout the system and that could be done by an agent that is like updating the context, like changing the nature of the tool, updating the harness, etc.

Speaker 0

我觉得这种方式应该是可泛化的,但不会过拟合。

And I think you'll prob in a way that is generalizable, but it doesn't overfit.

Speaker 0

如果你现在就想针对某个特定信号做过拟合,那今天就能做到。

Can you can do it today if you wanted to overfit to like some signal.

Speaker 0

但如果你想让它具备泛化能力,智能体还得再进步一些,这方面还有不少工作要做。

But if you wanted to do it in a way that generalizes, you you need the agents need to get a bit better still and there's some more work to do there.

Speaker 1

那在模型层面上的自我改进呢?

What about self improvement at, the model level?

Speaker 1

我记得你之前提到过,你们目前还没有在模型本身上做太多强化学习。

So I think you mentioned earlier that you guys don't do yet, much reinforcement learning on the model itself.

Speaker 1

你们主要是在做框架方面的工作,如果我没理解错的话。

You've done you're doing mostly harness work, if that's correct.

Speaker 1

但这是不是意味着,下一步的大方向就是开始真正对模型做强化学习,来提升行为遵循度?

But that's the is that the next big bet to start doing actual reinforcement learning on

Speaker 0

行为遵循度?

behavior adherence?

Speaker 0

对,这是个好问题。

Yeah, it's a great question.

Speaker 0

我觉得强化学习的难点在于,首先要确定奖励函数是什么,然后要决定如何把奖励分配到整个过程中,对吧?

The way I think about it is that the hard part of reinforcement learning is deciding what is your reward function and then deciding how you're going to allocate that reward over whatever occurred, right?

Speaker 0

所以这其实就是我们正在进行的核心研究。

So we are that is like the active research, that we are doing.

Speaker 0

因为那就是行为,那是信号的来源,对吧,你可以用它来构建奖励函数。

Because that's what behavior that's a source of signal, right, that you can use to craft into a reward function.

Speaker 0

同样,像其他一些生产监控工作和你们构建的一些评估也是如此。

Same with, like some of the other kind of production monitoring work and some of the like evals that you build.

Speaker 0

所以,决定如何构建好的信号,做研究,理解这意味着什么,尤其是在一个不完全可验证的领域,这就是我们在做的工作。

And so deciding how to build good signal and doing the research and understanding what does it mean especially in a non perfectly verifiable domain, that's the work we're doing.

Speaker 0

无论你是把那个信号通过权重传播,你知道,通过正式的强化学习,还是通过框架传播,不管你怎么称呼它,比如非正式的强化学习或者框架工程,我认为这跟信号的发展是两回事。

Whether you take that signal and then like proliferate it through the weights, you know, through, formal RL or you proliferate it through the harness, through whatever you want to call it, like informal RL or like harness engineering, I think is like a separate question from the development of the signal.

Speaker 0

但我认为信号的发展才是真正困难的部分,也是我们真正关注的重点。

But I think the development of the signal is really the hard part and that's the part that we're really focused on.

Speaker 0

而今天,我们不会直接进入权重。

And today we don't go directly into the weights.

Speaker 0

我们主要不这么做的原因是,模型在自我编排方面取得的许多进步,带来的性能提升远远超过直接更新模型所带来的好处。

And primarily the reason we don't do that is because a lot of the advancements that models are having when it comes to orchestrating themselves yield far more performance gains than, benefits you'd have of updating models directly.

Speaker 0

我认为这可能会达到一个极限,我们拭目以待,但我认为这就是为什么你还不直接进入权重的原因之一。

I think that might asymptote, we'll see, but I think that's one of the reasons that you don't go to the weights yet.

Speaker 0

我也觉得这是一个非常有趣的研究方向,我们很快会开始探索。所以对我们这个层面来说,也就是应用层面,我们正在做的就是这类研究。

I do think that's a very interesting research direction as well that we'll start pursuing, and so, for us at our level, at the kind of like applied application level, that's the kind of research that we're doing.

Speaker 0

但我怀疑,要让模型真正在经济中做实际工作,这是唯一的途径。

But I suspect that in order for the models to actually do real work in the economy, That's the only way you can get there.

Speaker 0

我不认为如果你训练一个模型,增加预训练的计算量,增加基于完全可验证奖励的后训练量,就能突然得到一个能可靠报税的模型。

I don't believe that if you were to train a model, you know, and you scale up the amount of pre training computing, you scale up the amount of like post training from like perfectly verifiable rewards, that suddenly will output a model that, will do a tax return, reliably.

Speaker 0

它可能会做得很好,但问题不在于它做得好不好,而在于它是否达到了与它一起工作的人所期望的质量、可靠性和可扩展性水平。

It might do one that's really good but the question is not does it do really good, it's that does it do it at the level of quality, reliability, scalability that would be expected from somebody operating with it.

Speaker 1

不过,你担不担心你之前提到的那个“苦涩的教训”呢?

Do you worry about the bitter lesson though that, you mentioned earlier in this conversation?

Speaker 1

你觉得你们和其他人在框架层面做的所有这些出色工作,最终会不会都被模型本身吞并掉?

Do you do you think, that, all this work that you guys brilliantly and and others are doing at the harness, level are going to be eventually swallowed up by the model?

Speaker 0

哦,我觉得肯定会被吞并。

Oh, I assume it will be swallowed up.

Speaker 0

是的,我不担心这个。

Yeah, I'm not worried about it.

Speaker 0

那绝对是未来。

That is absolutely the future.

Speaker 0

毫无疑问——事实上,如果你看看我的帖子,作为线索,我想我说过,这些行为还没有展示给智能体。

No qua- and in fact, if you look at my thread, as a hint to this, I think I said, the behaviors don't get shown to the agents yet.

Speaker 0

原因是,如果你真正遵循苦涩的教训,那么将来这种试图进行上下文工程的想法就会消失,你只需要指定,嘿,我想要这些行为,它就会自动实现。

And the reason is because, if you are truly bitter lesson filled, then in the future this whole idea of like trying to context engineer, it will just go away and you'll just specify, hey, I want these behaviors, it'll just work.

Speaker 0

所以我绝对认为它会被吞并,毫无疑问。

And so I definitely think it'll get swallowed up, no question.

Speaker 0

至于需要多长时间才会被吞并,我不太确定,你知道,我觉得可能不到五年。

I think that how long it'll take to get swallowed up, I don't know exactly, you know, I think it's probably sub five years.

Speaker 0

我觉得不会少于两年。

I don't think it's sub two years.

Speaker 0

我觉得可能不到五年,所以对我们来说,我们正处于超大规模模式,我们不能等苦涩的教训到来才去准确处理税务申报,所以我认为这将是关键之一,你知道,去实现它。

I think it's probably sub five years and so for us, you know, we're in hyper scale mode like we we we can't we can't wait for the bitter lesson to arrive to like perform tax returns accurately and so that's why I think that'll be one of the keys, you know, to, to doing it.

Speaker 0

我确实认为,我不知道,这完全是猜测,但我确实怀疑,也许某种类型的过程奖励对于这类工作最终会变得非常重要,你知道,用于优化实验室甚至随时间使用的计算资源。

I do think that I don't know, this is now total speculation, but I do suspect that maybe, some types of process rewarding for this type of work might end up being pretty important, you know, for optimizing the compute that the labs even use over time.

Speaker 0

因为我不知道你是不是想把经济里的每一个职业都像Move37那样处理。

Because I don't know if you want to Move37 like every single profession in the economy.

Speaker 0

我们已经有很多经验了,而且我觉得没什么理由要那样做。

Like we have a lot of learnings already and like there's kind of no reason to do that, would be my guess.

Speaker 1

那你觉得,自己做强化学习是不是某种护城河,能防止被模型性能的提升给吞掉?

So do you think of, doing your own RL as some kind of moat against being swallowed up by model performance?

Speaker 1

我的意思是,你觉得未来的应用型AI公司,是不是都会变成某种强化学习实验室?

I mean as you think about applied AI companies of the future, will they all be RLabs of some sort?

Speaker 0

总的来说,如果有人现在想创业,我建议这么想:技术护城河不是真正的护城河。

So generally, and if anyone's currently trying to found a company, I recommend thinking this way, Technical moats are not real moats.

Speaker 0

比如,Basis的长期价值里,没有任何一部分是来自我们发现的什么秘密强化学习技巧,别人都没发现的那种。

Like, I I there's no portion of Basis' long term terminal value that stems from some, you know, secret RL trick we found that nobody else found.

Speaker 0

所以那不重要。

So that doesn't matter.

Speaker 0

重要的是,我们现在显然非常擅长构建长周期智能体,它们能可靠地部署到生产环境中,而且我们会继续保持这个优势。

What matters is that right now we are obviously very good at building long horizon agents, that can be reliable and deployed in production and we'll continue to be the best at that.

Speaker 0

这样我们就能赢得市场份额,并深度融入其中。

And that allows us to win market share and get deeply embedded.

Speaker 0

所以我们行动非常快,因为我们想做的就是在通用人工智能到来之前,尽可能多地推广开来,不管你怎么称呼它。

And that's why we move really fast because the work we're trying to do is to, go and proliferate maybe before, like, you get to AGI, whatever you want to call that.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,未来存在的护城河大多是商业上的护城河。

So I think that most of the moats that will exist will be business moats.

Speaker 0

在通用人工智能时代也是如此。

That is true in the AGI era.

Speaker 0

我认为在通用人工智能之前的时代也是这样。

I would argue that's also been true in the pre AGI era.

Speaker 0

比如,我不觉得Salesforce能写出比我更好的SQL查询。

Like I don't think that, you know, Salesforce can write a better SQL query than I can.

Speaker 0

Salesforce的护城河跟他们的技术无关。

Like the moat that Salesforce has is not related to their technology.

Speaker 0

对吧?

Right?

Speaker 0

这跟他们的业务地位有关,你知道,就是他们拥有的权力、工作流程,还有所有这些随着深入嵌入而来的东西,这才是关键。

It's related to their business position, know, it's the it's the powers, it's the it's the it's the workflows that they own, it's all these so many of these different things that come with being you know embedded in and that's what matters.

Speaker 0

不是技术本身。

Not the technology.

Speaker 0

技术只是一个暂时的突破口,让我们这种三年前还不存在的公司,现在突然能做所有这些工作。

The technology is a temporary, like, dislodgement that allows someone like us who obviously didn't exist, you know, three and a half years ago to now suddenly be able to do all this kind of work.

Speaker 0

不过我也觉得,从长远来看,就像你说的,它不会完全变成一种商品。

I do think though for a long time, maybe to your point, that it's not like it will be a total commodity.

Speaker 0

因为,就像你可以有一群天才,但并不意味着所有天才都能同样出色地完成报税工作。

Because, just like you could have a bunch of genius humans, doesn't mean that all the genius humans are equivalent in being able to do a tax return.

Speaker 0

因为归根结底,有些东西是你关心的,有些是主观的。

Because at the end of the day, there are certain things that you care about or for that, that are subjective.

Speaker 0

而且我确实认为,提升我们工作的专业能力,对我们能在可预见的未来提供高质量的服务,真的很重要。

And I do think that building up the competency of, you know, the work we're trying to do is actually really important for us to be able to deliver really good quality for, I think, foreseeable future.

Speaker 1

好了,Mitch,今天聊得非常愉快。

Alright Mitch, it's been absolutely brilliant.

Speaker 1

最后,对于正在构建 AI 的人,或者今天在做 Agent 开发的朋友,除了刚才聊到的那些该做和不该做的事、经验教训之外,还有什么想分享的建议吗?

To close, any advice for AI builders, anybody like building agents today in addition to everything that you've talked about like the do's and don'ts and lessons learned and anything that comes to mind?

Speaker 0

我觉得最大的教训是,看着世界变化这么快,很容易产生一种无力感。比如看到推特上各种消息刷屏,感觉像 ADHD 一样混乱;中国的实验室每天都在发布新东西。这种时候,人很容易觉得无从下手,难以做出基于第一性原理的决策。

I think maybe the biggest lesson I would say is it's easy to look at the world and how fast things are changing and say like oh things are just you know one thing here one thing here is like you know ADHD on Twitter it's crazy you know the Chinese labs are releasing something every day and feel powerless to, make first principle decisions.

Speaker 0

但我认为,如果你把新世界看作是一种底层的范式转移——就像当年转向云计算那样——然后试着去推演:如果智能提升了 X 倍,或者没提升,这意味着什么?这样你就能构建出更连贯的系统,在技术和商业层面做出更明智的战略选择。

Whereas I actually think if you treat the new world as like an underlying paradigm shift, you know, the same way that like a shift to cloud or something is, you know, some underlying paradigm shift and you try to extrapolate, okay, you have these things, what does it mean, you know, if, you know, the intelligence became x better or if it didn't, I think you'll build a lot more coherent systems and make a lot better strategic bets both at like a technical and at a business level.

Speaker 0

事情确实在变,但底层范式并没有变。

Things are changing, but it's not like the paradigm is changing.

Speaker 0

所以我认为,真正理解这一点对于在这个领域发展至关重要。

And so I think really understanding it is very very key for being able to build in this world.

Speaker 1

Mitch,这次交流太棒了。

Mitch, it was absolutely fantastic.

Speaker 1

非常感谢你分享这么多内容。

Thank you so much for sharing all of this.

Speaker 1

真的很感激。

Really appreciate it.

Speaker 0

当然。

Of course.

Speaker 1

谢谢你

Thank you

Speaker 0

这么热情地邀请我。

so much for having me.

Speaker 1

嗨,我是马特·特克,又见面了。

Hi, it's Matt Turk again.

Speaker 1

感谢收听本期MAD播客。

Thanks for listening to this episode of the MAD podcast.

Speaker 1

如果你喜欢这期节目,我们非常感激你能订阅(如果还没订阅的话),或者在你观看或收听本期节目的平台上留下好评或评论。

If you enjoyed it, we'd be very grateful if you would consider subscribing if you haven't already or leaving a positive review or comment on whichever platform you're watching this or listening to this episode from.

Speaker 1

这真的能帮助我们发展播客,并邀请到优秀的嘉宾。

This really helps us build a podcast and get great guests.

Speaker 1

谢谢,我们下期再见。

Thanks and see you on the next episode.

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