一种交易新兴市场的新方式

这是市场。

This is the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西，今天是2月26日星期四，我正在高盛交易大厅，与全球银行与市场部门新兴市场股票交易负责人斯特拉特福德·丹尼斯在一起。

I'm Chris Hussey and today is Thursday, February 26 and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Stratford Dennis who is head of emerging markets equities trading within global banking and markets.

斯特拉特，非常感谢你再次加入我们。

Strat, thanks so much for joining us again.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me on.

我总是期待做这个。

Always look forward to doing this.

是的。

Yeah.

斯特拉特，你知道，2026年从一开始就是新兴市场的年份，我们刚和你聊完，才两个月又把你请回来了。

Well, Strat, you know 2026 is already the year of emerging markets when we kick it off with you and two months later, we got you back.

太棒了。

It's fantastic.

新兴市场的表现一直不错。

It's been a nice run for emerging markets.

发生了什么？

What's going on?

为什么表现得这么好？

Why is it working so well?

很简单，就是资金流动和基本面。

It's very simple, flows and fundamentals.

今年至今，我们已经看到约450亿美元的资金流入全球新兴市场，这已经超过了去年全年的总和。

Year to date, we've seen about $45,000,000,000 of inflows into global EM, which surpasses last year full year already.

如果回顾去年，显然我们那年表现强劲。

And if you think about last year, obviously, we had a strong year.

从资金流入的角度来看，那一年比过去几年都要强劲。

And from an inflow perspective, that was stronger than what we've seen in the past, you know, few years.

因此，在今年仅仅两个月内就已超越去年的水平，这说明资金流入是多么强劲。

So to already surpass that within, you know, two months of the year, it says how robust the flows are.

从盈利角度来看，基本面也表现强劲。

And then fundamentals, from an earnings perspective, things have been strong.

从基本面来看，我们正看到全球新兴市场整体表现更强。

Fundamentally, we're seeing, you know, stronger emerging markets globally.

因此，将这两者结合起来，我们就看到了今年迄今所展现出的强劲势头。

And so you couple the two, and we see the strength that we've seen year to date.

让我们稍微深入分析一下，因为有趣的是，这一切发生时，中国实际上并未成为驱动因素。

Let's peel back the onion a little bit because what's interesting too in this, all this has happened with China not actually being the driver.

中国发生了什么？

What's going on with China?

为什么它落后了？

Why is it lagging?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为你说得对。

I I I think you're right.

首先，你根本看不到他们的盈利增长。

First of all, you're just not seeing their earnings growth.

所以你看中国去年表现良好，这一切都源于估值扩张。

So you look at how China performed well last year, all of that was due to multiple expansion.

因此，市场实际上已经提前反映了这些预期，现在正在等待，看看他们的盈利何时能跟上。

So really, the market kind of pre traded things and now it's waiting to see, you know, when are their earnings gonna get there.

第二点，从资金流向来看，我们看到的资金主要流入了韩国、台湾，甚至日本，而不是中国。

The second thing is from a flow perspective, really what we're seeing on the flow side is flows into kinda Korea, Taiwan, even Japan as well, and not into China.

第三点，如果你从经济角度观察，经济实际上已经出现分化。

And the third thing, you really if you look at things from an economic perspective, the economy is kinda bifurcated.

出口型企业表现良好，但那些依赖国内需求的公司则表现不佳，因为国内需求疲软。

The exporters are doing well there, but the companies that have exposure to kinda domestic demand are not doing as well because there has been weakness there.

最后，我们或许会谈谈美元。

And then lastly, you know, we'll we'll perhaps talk about the dollar.

我们近期看到的美元走弱，其实并不是中国的故事。

Weaker dollar that we've seen really isn't a China story.

这其实是一个新兴市场中国故事。

It's really an EMX China story.

所以它并没有享受到其他新兴市场所获得的顺风。

So it's not getting the tailwind from that that the rest of emerging markets are getting.

是的。

Yeah.

关于美元，你提到了一个很好的观点。

It's a good point about the dollar.

而且当你考虑到关税影响时，如果中国的出口商表现良好，他们也不会从新的关税规定中获得任何缓解。

And when you think of the tariff implications there too, if the exporters were doing well in China, they're not gonna get any relief here from the new tariff regulations.

对吧？

Right?

正确。

Correct.

是的。

Yeah.

所以我们得等待中国国内的贸易。

So we have to wait for that domestic China trade.

嗯哼。

Mhmm.

是的。

Yep.

好的。

Alright.

在我们转向美元和拉美之前，我们换个话题吧，因为你一直告诉我，巴西是个不错的地方。

Let's pivot before we go to the dollar to Latin America because you've always taught me that, you know, Brazil can be a great place to be.

而巴西，确实是个不错的地方。

And Brazil, it's been a great place to be.

首先，我不知道我教了你多少。

First of I don't know how much I've taught you.

但你肯定教了我更多。

You've certainly taught me more.

但是，是的。

But but yeah.

听好了，我们喜欢巴西。

Look, we like Brazil.

我们继续看好巴西。

We continue to like Brazil.

我们认为将会降息250个基点。

We think there are going to be 250 basis points of cuts.

你知道，这很快就要开始了。

You know, it's starting very soon.

我们喜欢你对商品周期的敞口。

We like that you're getting exposure to the commodity cycle.

我们在这方面仍然看涨。

We still are bullish there.

此外，还有选举带来的上行潜力，取决于谁赢得选举，我们认为这可能成为市场的利好催化剂。

And then you have the election upside where depending on, you know, who wins the election, we think it could be bullish catalyst for the for the markets.

相反，我会说它没有以前那么便宜了。

On the contrary, I will say that it's not as cheap as it once was.

从仓位角度来看，我确实认为目前头寸并不拥挤，但相对于过去，我们对它的低配程度已经降低了。

And from a from a positioning perspective, I I certainly, things aren't crowded, but it's less of an underweight as what we've seen in the past.

但话又说回来，通常在这些降息周期中，它们的持续时间往往比市场预期的要长。

But with that being said, typically, when you get these cutting cycles, they tend to last longer than the market expects.

而这些周期通常对股市有利。

And those cycles tend to be good for equities.

所以我们仍然看好巴西。

So we we do like Brazil still.

好的。

Alright.

你提到过美元。

You mentioned the dollar.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我们来谈谈美元吧，因为就在我们开始这个播客之前，你和我聊到韩国时

Let's go into the dollar a little bit because Korea, when you and I were talking just before we started this podcast

是的。

Yes.

韩国货币上涨了大约60%，甚至更多，因为它除了其他因素外，还受到了美元走强的推动。

That's up like 60% or something because it's getting a lot of tailwinds from the dollar on top of everything else.

对。

Yeah.

美元现在情况如何？为什么它会对

What's going on with the dollar and why is that such a tailwind for

新兴市场来说太惊人了。

emerging It's incredible.

你刚才提到了韩国。

You you just mentioned Korea.

显然，以美元计价，韩国去年上涨了近100%，而现在又上涨了60%。

It's it's obviously, you know, had in dollar terms, up almost 100% last year, and now it's up another 60%.

正如你提到的，今天是2月26日。

And as you mentioned, it's February 26.

所以我不会把这些数字年化，但显然这波涨势非常强劲。

So I won't annualize those numbers, but obviously, it's been a strong run.

但通常当我思考我的交易框架时——我之前也提到过——我会把新兴市场分为新兴市场除中国和中国两部分。

But typically, when I think about, you know, my trading framework, and I've mentioned this in in previous instances, I think of emerging markets as kind of EM ex China and and China.

当你考虑新兴市场除中国时，从风险和股票角度判断未来走势的一个主要因素就是美元。

And when you think about EM ex China, one of the kind of main inputs into how do you think things are going to go from a risk and equities perspective is the dollar.

当你通过ADR和美国ETF等方式投资这些资产时，会同时面临隐性和显性的美元敞口。

And you have exposure to both implicit and kind of explicit exposure to dollar weakness to the extent you invest in these things via things like ADRs and US ETFs.

这些产品本身就具有明确的美元敞口。

There is explicit dollar exposure into those products.

因此，美元走弱将为新兴市场除中国地区提供顺风。

So a weaker dollar is going to provide tailwind across EM ex ex China.

其次我想提到的是，美元走弱通常伴随着大宗商品的走强。

And then the second thing I I I would mention is that a weaker dollar tends to coincide with, you know, strength in commodities.

对于拉丁美洲这样的地区，我们对强劲的商品有敞口，这就是我们喜欢巴西等国家的原因之一。

And for areas like Latin America, we have exposure to to strong commodities, you know, that's one of the reasons we like things like Brazil.

因此，美元走弱会以多种方式影响新兴市场资产。

So a weak dollar does kind of find its way into EM assets in kind of a number of ways.

是的。

Yeah.

我明白商品方面的观点很重要，因为许多新兴市场确实依赖商品。

I know it's a great point on the commodity side because so many of these emerging markets do focus on commodities.

让我们总结一下。

So let's put a bow on this.

考虑到这波强劲上涨之后，你是否还想持有新兴市场资产？

You think about it, do I still wanna own emerging markets after this big run?

如果想，那我该在哪些地方

And if I do, where do I

持有呢？

wanna own it?

是的。

Yes.

我认为你应该持有。

I think you do.

现在，我和你讨论新兴市场和国际市场，我非常喜欢这么做。

Now, I I, you know, I I talk with you about emerging markets and international markets, and I and I love doing it.

但我的交易核心一直是衍生品和结构性产品。

But at the core of kind of what I trade has been derivatives and structured products.

如果我讲得有点太专业了，请见谅，但我希望做多新兴市场，排除中国以外的新兴市场。

So forgive me if I get a little too technical, but I wanna be long emerging markets kind of across EM ex China.

我仍然看好巴西，但我更倾向于通过看涨价差和看涨比率来实现。

I still like Brazil, but I think the way that I like to do it is through call spreads and call ratios.

太棒了。

Oh, fantastic.

我

I

我喜欢好的看涨价差。

love myself a good call spread.

所以本质上，由于这轮上涨，如果你观察隐含波动率曲面，那些极高行权价的看涨期权价格非常高。

So so essentially what's happening is that because of the rally, if you look at the implied vol surface, the the very high upside calls are very, very big.

这其实很合理，因为新兴市场在不到两个月内上涨了15%。

And that that that makes sense because, you know, emerging markets are up 15% in less than two months.

这种情况肯定会发生。

That's going to happen.

因此，我们称之为偏度变平，意味着这些上行看涨期权价格非常昂贵。

As a result, what we would call that is skew flattening, meaning these upside calls are very expensive.

因此，如果你买入一个平值或略高于平值的看涨期权，然后卖出一个或甚至两个更高的行权价期权，你就构建了看涨价差和看涨比率。

And so that means that if you buy a kind of at the money or slightly above at the money call, and then you sell either one or even two of the upper strikes, you get into call spreads and call ratios.

由于偏度变平，这些看涨比率目前提供了非常有吸引力的风险回报比。

And those call ratios provide very attractive risk reward right now because of the flatness in skew.

所以，无论你观察MSCI新兴市场指数，还是通过博韦斯帕指数看巴西，你都可以找到看涨价差和看涨比率，根据你选择的行权价，回报率可达五倍或六倍。

So if you look at whether it's MSCI EM or you can look at Brazil through the Bovespa, you can get into call spreads and call ratios that offer, you know, five or six to one payout ratios depending on the strikes you pick.

这就是我喜欢的。

So that's what I like.

我认为这有所不同，你知道，它仍然是看涨的，但我和今年早些时候在这里时的区别在于，我们持有的多头头寸结构会表现良好，但如果市场继续像之前那样跳空上涨，它们的表现就不会那么好了。

I think that that differs you know, it's still bullish, but I think the the difference between where I am now and where I was when I was here earlier in the year is is the structures that we have our kinda longs on should perform well, but not as well if the market continues to gap the way it's done.

我基本上想说，我认为市场将继续上涨，但上涨的速度会比之前慢。

I'm basically saying, I think the market will continue to go higher, but the velocity of the move will be slower than it's been.

不。

No.

这是个非常好的观点。

It's such a great point.

你知道，你想保持对新兴市场的敞口，但要卖出一部分上行敞口，因为我们已经看到了这种行情。

You know, you wanna keep exposure to emerging markets, but sell some of that upside exposure because we've already seen it.

没错。

Exactly.

没错。

Exactly.

很好。

Great.

好的。

Alright.

我们接下来要关注什么催化剂？

What are we looking for ahead as catalyst?

看。

Look.

我正在考虑的事情，可能对大多数人来说还太早，但我已经开始关注巴西大选了。

The things I'm thinking about, it's it's probably too may perhaps too early for most to think about it, but I am starting to think about the Brazil election.

我们开始看到新闻周期活跃起来。

We're starting to see the news cycle pick up.

我们开始看到巴西股指随着选举相关新闻的发布而波动。

We're starting to see the Brazilian index start to trade as news comes out about the election.

而且，我知道我主要关注国际市场，但我觉得每个人都关注人工智能与受AI威胁的公司之间的博弈。

And then, you know, I will say that although I focus on on international markets, I think everybody is focused on, you know, the the play between AI and kind of the AI at risk firms.

因此，弄清楚市场如何消化这一主题以及该主题如何展开，仍然是我在国际市场上关注的核心，因为如果你看一下像全球新兴市场这样的广泛股票群体，你会发现，当标普500和美国股市大幅下跌时，我的产品可能会相对表现更好，但并不会上涨。

And so kind of figuring out how the market digests this theme and how that theme plays out is still central to me in international markets because if you look at, you know, even broad groups of of of equities like global EM, what you'll see is that if the S and P and the and and The US equities sell off significantly, my products can kind of outperform, but they're not going be up.

因此，围绕这一主题的风险情绪确实是我一直在考虑的问题。

So kind of risk sentiment along this story is something that's certainly on my mind.

是的。

Yeah.

长期以来，相关性一直是这些市场的重大问题。

Correlation has been such an issue for these markets for so long.

Strat，非常精彩的对话。

Strat, terrific conversation.

感谢你加入我们。

Thanks for joining us.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

到此为止。

That does it

欢迎收看本周的《市场》节目。

for this week's episode of the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢您的收看。

Thanks for joining us.

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