Can the Tech Surge Continue?

这里是市场动态。

This is the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西，今天是5月28日，星期四，我正在高盛交易大厅，和彼得·卡勒汉在一起，他是全球银行与市场部门的美国科技、媒体与电信行业专家。

I'm Chris Hussey, today is Thursday, May 28, and I'm here in the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Peter Callahan, who is The US Tech, Media and Telecom sector specialist within Global Banking and Markets.

彼得，再次感谢你抽出时间。

Pete, thanks again for taking the time.

谢谢你邀请我，克里斯。

Thanks for having me, Chris.

好的。

Okay.

我们先聊聊市场吧，彼得，自从3月30日触底以来，科技股几乎经历了一轮历史性的反弹。

Let's start with the markets, Pete, because we've had a almost historic run-in tech off the March 30 lows.

这次涨势不像过去那样集中在七大科技巨头身上。

Hasn't been as mag 70 as we've seen in the past.

你怎么看这次上涨行情？

What do you make of the rally?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得有三点特别突出。

I'd say three things stand out to me.

第一，波动范围很窄。

One, narrow breath.

第二，上涨速度很快。

Two, high velocity.

第三，由盈利增长和盈利预期上调支撑。

And three, anchored by earnings growth and earnings revisions.

我这么说是什么意思呢？

So what do I mean by that?

如果我看过去三个月，纳斯达克指数涨了20%。

If I look back over the last three months, the Nasdaq is up 20%.

但如果你仔细看，这期间纳斯达克里只有一半的股票是上涨的。

But when you look under the hood, only about half of the stocks in the Nasdaq are even up at all over that stretch.

所以，市场广度依然狭窄，主要由半导体带动，今年半导体涨幅接近80%。

So you have narrow breadth, again, led by semiconductors, which are up nearly 80% this year.

这是自1999年以来表现最好的一年。

Best year since 1999.

第二，资金流动迅猛。

Second, high velocity.

纳斯达克今年的开局是二十多年来第二强劲的，科技股价格今年上涨得非常快。

The Nasdaq is off to its second best start to a year in over twenty five years, and so we've really had a really rapid rise this year in tech stock prices.

最后，说到盈利增长，如果你看标普500里那些AI相关股票，今年它们整体上涨了大约30%。

And finally, in terms of earnings growth, if you looked at sort of AI stocks within the S and P five hundred, that group was about 30 up about 30% this year.

顺便说一句，这些公司的盈利也上涨了约30%。

Incidentally, their earnings have also risen about 30% this year.

所以，今年科技股的市盈率之所以没被推高，是因为盈利预期的强劲上调。

So you are seeing multiples kept in check driven by strong earnings revisions in tech this year.

明白了。

Alright.

你刚才提到了这些盈利数据。

So, you know, you you pointed to those earnings.

咱们来聊聊这些数据吧。

Let's talk about them a little bit here.

第一季度的财报，你怎么看？

First quarter results, what'd you make of it?

是的。

Yeah.

科技公司的盈利表现不错。

It's good earnings from tech.

我觉得最突出的是资本支出。

I think the standouts were CapEx.

对吧？

Right?

资本支出又迎来了一波大幅上调。

You had another big wave of CapEx revisions.

我觉得2027年资本支出的预期上调到了百分之二十。

I think CapEx estimates for calendar twenty seven went up to 20%.

所以2027年的资本支出规模现在可能超过九千亿美元。

So you're now looking at something like north of 900,000,000,000 of CapEx in 2027.

这个趋势依然强劲，还在继续上升。

So that story is still intact and still pushing higher.

其次，在软件领域，我觉得业绩参差不齐。

I think secondly, within software, I would say results were mixed.

我们后面可能会聊软件，但有的不错，有的不理想。

We may talk about software later, but some good, some not good.

不过好消息是，这个领域开始出现分化了，这对投资者来说是个积极信号。

But the nice thing is you're actually starting to see some dispersion in that space, and that's been a welcome sign for investors.

最后，可能和刚才说的资本支出有关，计算能力和AI供应链的产能依然紧张。

And I think finally, and perhaps tied to that first point on CapEx, you are still seeing relatively tight capacity across compute and in the AI supply chain.

因此，企业开始提到，订单的能见度已经延伸到了2027年，因为眼下半导体和AI基础设施的供应严重不足，客户都在提前下单。

And in turn, you're hearing companies starting to talk about visibility extending out into calendar twenty seven, where semiconductor and AI infrastructure companies are starting to get orders pushing out that far, given the shortage of we're seeing today.

我来深入聊聊软件这块，因为你之前提到我们要谈这个。

Let me drill down to that software point because you pointed we were going to talk about.

我确实想谈一谈，因为软件领域的困境甚至波及到了信贷市场，私人信贷开始出问题，大家担心自己在软件上的敞口太大。

I do want to talk about it because the software troubles even bled over into the credit markets where private credits started to go through a problem because people were worried that they had too much software exposure.

但最近，软件股又开始回暖了。

But lately, you're starting to see the software stocks working again.

这是怎么回事？

What's going on?

是的。

Yeah.

听我说。

Listen.

今年软件行业的处境确实很艰难。

The the odds have been tough this year in software.

这没得说，但行业内已经开始出现分化了。

No doubt about it, but you are seeing dispersion in the group.

我认为这一点让所有投资者都感到欣慰，不管是长期持有型还是对冲基金。

And I think that's something that all investors, whether long only or hedge funds are happy to see.

对吧？

Right?

关键在于区分出群体中的领先者和落后者，这就是分散性的意义。

It's all about dispersion trying to pick leaders and laggards within the group.

所以从这里开始，仍然存在不少争议。

So there are still debates from here.

投资者很关心你对订阅制和按席位收费模式， versus 按使用量计费模式的看法，以及未来几年可能的发展方向。

Investors are curious about how you think about subscription and seat models versus consumption models and where we may be headed over the next couple of years.

投资者也在琢磨，软件公司到底能不能在销售环节真正落地人工智能，还是说这又是一场老牌企业与初创公司的较量。

Investors are trying to figure out if software is able to deploy AI at the point of sale or you have this sort of like incumbent versus startup debate from here.

当然，今年年初的市场环境一直不太稳定。

And then of course, the environment's been a little bit choppy to start the year.

对吧？

Right?

现在企业里都有了新的AI预算，正在陆续花出去。

You have new AI budget that's getting spent across enterprises.

我们显然还处在持续的冲突当中。

We obviously had the conflict that is still ongoing.

这段日子确实有点乱，但至少投资者现在觉得，还是能分出谁强谁弱的。

And so it's been a little bit of a noisy stretch, but at least investors are saying, can pick winners and losers.

这跟过去几年的情况不一样了。

And that's a change from what you'd seen over the last couple of years.

以前大家都是被同样的压力裹挟着，没什么差别。

It was sort of correlation one type of pressure across the group.

那在软件行业，谁能胜出，是不是就看谁会用AI，谁不会用？

And does that winner or losers in software just come down to your ability to employ AI versus your not ability?

说实话，没错。

Frankly, yes.

现在关键在于，你能不能证明AI正在帮你的业务提升，推动收入更快增长。

At the moment, it's whether you are able to indicate that AI is helping your business and driving faster revenue growth.

如果是这样，市场就会很乐意重新评估股价。

And if it is, the market is very happy to rerate shares.

对。

Yeah.

有意思的是，当时大家都想抛售软件股，因为他们担心会被AI——也就是软件——取代。

It was interesting because everybody wanted to sell software because they thought they would get disintermediated by AI, which is software.

没错，正是这样。

So That's exactly right.

所以这里的关键是，嘿。

So the argument here is, hey.

我们正是那些在企业环境中已经具备完整背景和资源的公司，客户会依赖我们来帮助他们落地AI。

We are the companies that are actually at that point with all this context in an enterprise, and customers will lean on us to help deploy AI for them.

你提到半导体行业迎来了自1999年以来最好的一年。

So you you mentioned semiconductors having their best year since 1999.

一方面，1999年那会儿的狂热，就像一个尼克斯队球迷的期待一样。

On the one hand, 1999 is, you know, enthusiastic as a Knicks fan.

我们现在就像在过1999年一样狂欢。

We're partying like it's 1999.

但另一方面，1999年对尼克斯队球迷来说也没好结果。

On the other hand, 1999 didn't end well even for Knicks fans.

我们希望今年能有个更好的结局。

We're hoping for something better this year.

跟我们说说现在的定位吧。

Talk to us about positioning.

我们是不是有点过头了？

Are we over our skis?

我们现在到底处在什么位置？

Where are we?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

我觉得半导体板块今年开局很不错。

I think for semiconductors, listen, it's been a great start to the year.

一个板块在五个月内涨了80%，肯定会有 Momentum 的效应，这很正常。

I think anytime a group's up 80% like it is in five months, there's, of course, you have sort of these momentum dynamics.

涨得太快太猛了。

You have too far too fast.

这些短期因素确实会影响市场情绪。

You have all that type of stuff that kind of matters over the short term.

但从中期来看，真正关键的是盈利预期的调整。

But I think over the medium term, what really matters is earnings revisions.

没错。

Right.

只要这个板块的盈利预期还在上调，估值就能稳住，投资者在回调时、 Momentum 减弱时，或者出现局部持仓压力时，都会愿意逢低加仓——毕竟这种涨幅下，这些波动难免会出现。

And as long as you are getting earnings revisions for this group, which helps keep multiples in track, I think investors are very comfortable adding to this group on pullbacks or momentum unwinds or different pockets of positioning pressures that can show up, of course, when you have moves like this.

所以归根结底，还是紧盯盈利增长，我会尽力保持对这个板块的跟踪和更新。

So I think at the end of the day, just keep tracking the earnings growth, and I'll do my best to keep this group informed.

拜托了。

Please.

我们接下来要请教您。

We're gonna be tapping into you.

好的。

Alright.

具体是哪笔交易？

What's the trade?

对。

Yeah.

我们还没聊过的一个板块是美国互联网。

One group we haven't talked about about yet is US Internet.

这个板块，按我的划分方式，其实是去年表现落后的软件板块，这可能让不少人感到意外。

The group, the way I cut the data, is about lagged software in the year, which is probably surprising to people.

目前大家还在争论资金来源、持续的投资周期、消费者状况，当然还有未来几年人工智能在消费领域的发展方向。

There's ongoing debates about sources of funds, about ongoing investment cycles, about the health of the consumer, and, course, where AI in the consumer world goes over the next couple of years.

但最近，你开始看到美国互联网公司从产品端展现出更多与人工智能相关的创新。

But as of late, you're starting to see a little bit more innovation from the product side on US Internet companies tied to AI.

随着油价从高点回落，消费者情绪似乎有所降温。

The temperature on the consumer seems to be coming down as oil prices have reset off the highs.

因此，基于这个背景和更清晰的定位，我会继续关注美国互联网板块。

And so given that backdrop and cleaner positioning, I'll be watching The US Internet sector from here.

好的。

Alright.

没想到，下周就要进入六月了。

We're gonna go into June, believe it or not, next week.

你最近在关注什么？

What are you watching for?

是的。

Yeah.

其实就两件事。

I mean, just two things really.

对吧？

Right?

这都是宏观数据。

It's macro data.

你会看到新的月度数据，比如非农报告，还有月中发布的 CPI。

So you're gonna get the sort of new monthly data, NFP data, and then mid month CPI.

所以我们主要关注就业数据的走势，以及地缘冲突背景下通胀的情况。

And so we're just looking for the mix of jobs data and then, of course, what the inflation story is given the geopolitical conflict.

另外在科技领域，接下来会有不少软件和半导体行业的用户大会。

And then otherwise, in tech, we have a bunch of user conferences and things like that across software and, semiconductors.

我会留意这些活动如何影响生成式 AI 在夏季的市场情绪和基调。

And so I'll be looking to see how that sets the temperature and the tone on generative AI into the summer months.

你提到通胀了。

You mentioned inflation.

过去它和利率通常是相关的。

Historically, has been correlated with rates.

现在利率对科技行业还有影响吗？

Do rates matter to tech anymore?

可能还是有影响的。

They could matter.

目前市场对此还算能接受。

At the moment, the market's okay with that.

说实话，科技行业在AI供应链上承受了太多成本压力，原材料和投入成本涨得厉害。

Candidly, there's been so many cost inflation inputs into tech when you think about what this sort of AI supply chains had to weather in terms of input costs.

所以市场会认为，考虑到打造AI基础设施所面临的种种挑战，这确实值得留意。

So I think the market looks at and says in the context of everything we're dealing with to to deliver this AI infrastructure, it's something to keep an eye on.

但就目前的水平来看，它还不是主要担忧。

But at these levels, it has not been a primary concern.

没错。

No.

确实没怎么成为问题。

It really hasn't been.

好吧。

Alright.

我根本没关注那些事。

I'm not looking at any of those things.

我只在看

I'm

就盯着

just looking

你的尼克斯队。

your Knicks.

我就盯着周三晚上，NBA总决赛就要开了。

I'm just looking at Wednesday night, we start the NBA finals.

最后一个问题。

So last question.

尼克斯队能拿冠军吗？

Can the Knicks win the championship?

为什么不呢？

Why not?

为什么不呢？

Why not?

好吧。

Alright.

我就当这是高度认可了。

I'll take that as a rave.

彼得，非常感谢你参与。

Pete, thanks so much for joining.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

本期《市场》节目就到这里。

That does it for this week's episode of the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢您的参与。

Thanks for joining us.

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