在金融领域寻找机遇

这是市场。

This is the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西，今天是2月4日星期三，我正在高盛交易大厅，与我们的全球银行与市场部门金融行业专家克里斯蒂安·德格拉斯在一起。

I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Wednesday, February 4, and I'm here in the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Christian DeGrasse, who is our financial sector specialist within global banking and markets.

克里斯蒂安，非常感谢你加入我们。

Christian, thanks so much for joining us.

谢谢你邀请我，克里斯。

Thanks for having me, Chris.

好的。

Alright.

让我们从基本面开始，尽管我知道今天金融板块的股票主要受技术面影响，但几乎所有银行都已经发布了财报。

Let's start with the fundamentals, even though I know a lot of the technicals is what's really hitting these stocks today in the financial sector, but we did have pretty much all the banks report already.

你对财报怎么看？

What'd you make of earnings?

总的来说，情况相当积极。

Look, it was broadly pretty constructive.

我的意思是，整体上盈利预期上调了2%到3%，无论是大型银行还是地区性银行都是如此。

I mean, estimate revisions up two to 3% across the board, both big banks as well as regionals.

你看到了资本市场活动和承销管道方面非常积极的基调。

You saw really constructive tone around capital markets activity and then a pipelines, ECM pipelines.

那里的整体情况都非常积极。

Everything was very constructive there.

在资本回报方面也出现了积极的信号，过去六到十二个月以来这一趋势持续改善。

Saw a positive tone on capital return, which has been, continuing to improve over the past six to twelve months as well.

贷款增长处于中个位数以上。

Loan growth, mid single digits plus.

这一数据相比前几年也在改善。

That's improving off prior years as well.

净利息收益率表现良好。

Net interest margin's good.

那里势头不错。

Good momentum there.

再来看信贷质量，情况非常温和。

And then you look at credit quality, and it's it's benign.

我的意思是，一直很不错。

I mean, it's been pretty good.

关于消费者，普遍的说法是具有韧性。

You know, the word on the consumer was resilient.

我们听到了很多这样的说法。

We heard that a lot.

K型经济，我的意思是，它确实仍然存在，但重要的是，差距并没有进一步扩大。

The k shaped economy, I mean, that does still exist, but importantly, the spread is not widening out.

我的意思是，这是银行们所观察到的。

I mean, that's what the banks are seeing.

当然，我们最近在金融股上看到的很多价格走势，并没有完全与我们从财报中听到的信息相吻合。

Of course, I mean, a lot of the price action that we've been seeing in financials hasn't exactly correlated with what we heard, from earnings.

很多事情正在发生。

There's a lot going on.

我相信我们会深入讨论这一点。

I'm sure we're gonna get into that.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

让我们来谈谈什么是‘很多事情在发生’，因为这确实如此。

Let's get into what's a lot going on because that's so true.

你知道，从上周开始，尤其是，你开始看到金融板块的一些领域开始下跌。

You know, starting last week, especially, you started to see pockets of the financials start to sell off.

那里发生了什么？

What was going on there?

是的。

Yeah.

听好了。

Look.

我认为，在过去几周里，你看到了软件股，特别是TMT领域承受了很大压力。

I think, the past couple of weeks, you've seen a lot of pressure within software stocks, specifically within TMT.

过去几天，这种压力开始蔓延到金融领域的某些板块，尤其是信息服务类公司，以及任何从事数据交易和运营的企业。

That over the past couple of days started to bleed into some pockets of financials, particularly info services, anyone transacting and engaging in data.

你也开始看到压力波及到私募信贷和私募股权领域。

And you've also started to see some of the pressure bleeding to the private credit, private equity folks.

你看，这个市场变化非常快。

Look, this market's moving very fast.

我认为，人们正在从软件板块的动向中获取线索，同时也在关注人工智能领域发生的快速进步。

And I I think people are taking their cue from what's coming out of software and also looking at all of the rapid advancements happening in AI.

简而言之，如果我们对人工智能抱有美好愿景，那么人们正在重新评估那些我们认为早已存在的、围绕这些企业的护城河。

And, you know, in short, if we're dreaming the dream on AI, then I think people are reevaluating some of the, you know, moats that we think already exist around a lot of these businesses.

因此，许多高质量的企业，人们都在思考它们在未来三到五年会是什么样子，以及对这些企业的信贷敞口将如何变化？

And so a lot of very high quality businesses, people are wondering how what are these gonna look like in three to five years, and what is the old for all, you know, credit exposure to these business going to be?

所以，我认为，目前市场上出现了许多非常敏锐的反应。

So it's a lot of, I think, very sharp reactions out there.

过去几天可能是我过去六到十二个月里见过的最广泛的价格波动。

The past couple of days has probably been the most broad based price action that I've seen over the past six to twelve months.

所以我认为存在一定程度的过度反应，人们可能只是在重新评估他们对这一切的宏观敞口。

So I think there is a degree of overreacting, and people maybe just reevaluating their top down exposure to all of this.

接下来我们将进入尽职调查阶段，可能会有一些不错的机会可以把握。

And then we're gonna enter the due diligence phase, and, there's probably be some good opportunities, you know, to pick up here.

好的。

Alright.

我们来谈谈这个业务的利率和信贷方面。

Let's talk about the rates and credit side of that business.

我们来谈谈美联储，因为上周我们也讨论过他们。

Let's bring the Fed into this because we had them last week as well.

还有利率本身，银行的走势总是与利率挂钩。

And just rates in general, banks always trade off of rates.

他们以长期利率放贷。

They lend money at the long end.

他们以短期利率借款，因此总能赚取利差。

They they borrow money at the short end, so they always make that spread.

利率市场目前是为金融板块提供支持，还是构成阻力？

How are the how is the rates market, you know, shaping up here as a support for financials or as a headwind?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，2年期和10年期国债收益率差扩大了40到50个基点，这对银行——无论是地区性银行还是大型银行——都是利好。

I think, look, twos tens has widened out like 40 to 50 basis points over a I mean, that's a positive for the banks, both regional and the big banks as well.

正如你所说，他们是在短期端借款。

As you said, they're borrowing on the short end.

他们在长期端放贷。

They're lending on the long end.

因此，随着时间推移，这种重新定价正在提升他们的利差。

So you're seeing those repricing benefit over time benefit margins.

我们在财报中已经看到了这一点。

We saw that in earnings.

我认为未来一两年内，前景相当积极。

I think the outlook is pretty constructive on that over the next year or two.

所以我们正在密切关注美联储和沃什接下来的动向。

So look, we're keeping an eye on what the Fed is going be doing, what Warsh is going be doing as well.

我认为，特别是地区性银行，已经度过了长期利率高企对它们不利的阶段。

I think that the regional banks in particular, they've moved past kind of the higher long end is bad for them.

人们现在对存款结构、流动性状况和久期管理都更加放心了。

I think people are far more comfortable with deposit profiles and liquidity profiles and duration profile.

所以它们目前处于一个不错的位置。

So that's in a good spot.

我建议关注一下长期利率的波动性。

What I would maybe keep an eye on is just rate volatility on the long end.

在过去，管理团队常将这一点作为推迟资本市场计划的原因。

In past instances, that is something that management teams cite for delaying capital markets pipelines and such.

因此，从风险角度来看，这是你需要关注的重点。

So that's what you probably want to keep an eye on here as far as risks go.

但环境确实相当有利。

But the environment is is pretty constructive.

然后一些看涨者甚至称之为金发姑娘情境。

And then some of the bulls are even called Goldilocks.

不。

No.

这很有道理。

That makes a lot of sense.

好的。

Alright.

你在这里用了‘金发姑娘’这个说法。

You've used Goldilocks as a term here.

我们来谈谈监管吧，因为你知道，随着新政府上台，这正是大家所期待的‘金发姑娘’情景。

Let's talk about regulation because, you know, going into the this new administration, that was sort of the Goldilocks that everybody was waiting for.

但我们实际上在2025年并没有等到它。

We didn't really get it in 2025.

2026年充满希望，有望成为放松监管的交易年。

There's a lot of promise in 2026 to 2026, setting up to be the deregulation trade.

我认为，去年大型银行是这一趋势的核心。

I think, look, big banks last year, were the epicenter of this.

你知道，我认为它们在交易这些政策之前就已经表现得非常强劲。

You know, I think they were very, very strong outperformers kind of pre trading some of this.

但在我看来，这并不仅仅体现在估值上。

But that's in our view, least, this is not all in into valuations.

我们对一些重大事项，如七国集团重新调整、巴塞尔III最终方案、CCAR等，仍缺乏清晰度。

Or we don't yet have clarity around major items like G7 recalibration, Basel III endgame, CCAR as well.

因此，我们正在关注相关规则和提案何时最终确定。

So we're watching around when rules and proposals there get finalized.

一旦这些规则出台，银行就能明确它们可以运营的资本水平。

Once those come out, then the banks will actually have clarity around what capital levels they can operate.

因此，这就是你在这里需要关注的下一步动向的第一步。

And so that's the first leg that you're watching for here in terms of what comes next.

但在这之后，你将看到这些银行对各种不同资产的资本处理方式发生变化。

But then after that, what you're going to see is the treatment of a lot of different assets in these banks, the capital treatment.

这一切都将改变，银行将开始迎来新的增长机会。

That's all going to change, and you're going to see new growth opportunities for the banks start to open up.

因此，你现在会看到银行进入一些过去未曾涉足的领域，并开始在某些 previously 由非银行机构抢占的领域中夺回市场份额。

And so you're now gonna see the banks lean into certain areas that they previously previously haven't been and start taking share around some areas that perhaps some of the non banks have been taking share.

所以这就是你需要关注的地方。

So that's what you wanna watch for.

这将是一个持续数年的过程，银行将更加积极地推动增长，而这种增长在过去几年里我们并未见到。

That's gonna be several years where the bank's gonna be leaning in more to growth that we haven't seen over the past couple

了几年。

of years.

所以，不要在放松监管的消息公布后就抛售。

So so don't sell the news on deregulation.

实际上，应该买入下一波机会。

Actually, buy the next

没错。

Exactly.

因为接下来我们会看到这些银行将关注哪些新的战略增长领域。

Because then we're gonna see, you know, what new strategic growth areas these banks are gonna be looking into.

如果细分行业，你能看看金融领域里所有这些可投资的方向吗？

When you break down the sectors, can you look at all these things that you can invest in in financials?

你知道，你最看好哪些行业板块？

You know, which sector exposures do you like most?

是的。

Yeah.

听好了。

Look.

我认为银行在这里很有吸引力。

I would say I think the banks are attractive here.

无论是大型银行还是地区性银行。

Both the big banks as well as the regional banks.

区域性银行有助于拓展贸易。

The regional banks, you know, help of broadening out trade.

我认为无论是区域性银行还是大型银行，在人工智能方面表现都相当不错，因为你们不会像在金融行业其他一些领域那样面临大量人工智能风险。

I think both screen pretty good on AI as well, both the regional and large banks, in the sense that you don't have a lot of the AI risks that we're kind of seeing spread out across some different sectors in financials.

但另一方面，银行内部有大量的运营职能，属于劳动密集型。

But on the other hand of it, I mean, there's a large operational functions, labor intensive within the banks.

而且你们正听到他们开始谈论提升效率和生产力的机会。

And you're hearing them start to talk about an opportunity to improve efficiency, improve productivity here.

因此，这里实际上可能蕴含着机会。

And so there actually could be an opportunity there.

你看，我认为还有一些其他领域很有意思。

Look, I think some other areas I think are interesting.

商业地产经纪人和服务商正处在一个非常有吸引力的盈利改善周期中，因为那里的交易活动和价格发现正在显著升温。

The CRE brokers, commercial real estate brokers, and servicers, they're on a pretty attractive earnings improvement cycle as activity and price discovery really picks up there.

两个月前我们举办了高盛金融会议，当时替代投资领域最大的争议点就是价格发现。

We had our GS Financials conference two months ago, and one of the big sticking points from the alternatives was price discovery.

那里募资的早期积极迹象正在显著增强。

Early green shoots in fundraising are really picking up there.

因此，我认为这是一个值得做多的领域。

So I like that as an area to be long.

最后，我认为消费金融值得关注。

And then lastly, I think consumer finance deserves a look.

这些股票的市盈率目前在六到七倍之间。

These stocks are six to seven times earnings here.

在当前市场普遍估值偏高、信贷质量依然良好的情况下，我认为这是一个可以发现价值的领域。

And so in a market where things are quite expensive and credit quality remains benign, I think that's an area you can find some value in.

至于我持谨慎态度的地方，我认为信息服务业至少在短期内面临一些逆风，因为只要人工智能持续快速进步，这些企业的合理估值倍数就难以确定。

Look, where I'd be cautious, I do think the info services space, at least in the near term, has some headwinds in terms of what is the right multiple to put on these businesses so long as AI keeps having rapid advancements.

我另一个持谨慎态度的领域是财产和意外伤害保险。

And the other area I'd be cautious in is property and casualty insurance.

保险业有其自身的周期。

So insurance operates on its own cycle.

这是软周期的第二年，你已经看到了定价的显著放缓，但我们还没有足够的数据点表明这一趋势已经触底。

This is year two of a soft cycle where you've seen real real deceleration in pricing, and we just don't yet have the data points that shows that that's bottoming out.

是的。

Yeah.

这说得通。

It makes sense.

好的。

Okay.

你提到了金融领域很多值得看好的方面。

You're mentioning a lot of things to like within financials.

金融板块能在2026年跑赢大盘吗？

Can the financial sector outperform in 2026?

是的，我认为我们可能期待温和的超额收益。

Yeah, I think we're probably looking for modest outperformance.

我认为，排除保险板块的话，金融行业确实有可能跑赢市场，但我之前也提到，我们对财产和意外伤害保险持谨慎态度。

I think it certainly can outperform ex insurance, but I did mention that we are cautious on property and casualty insurance.

这占整个指数的约20%到30%。

That makes up something like 20% to 30% of the overall index.

所以我认为你应该把这部分剔除。

So I think you strip that out.

你对资本市场持积极看法。

You're constructive on capital markets.

我认为这确实抓住了关键点。

I think that certainly strikes the right notes.

但我对保险领域略显谨慎，这可能会让整体的超额表现显得更温和一些。

But I am a little bit cautious on insurance here, so that might take headline outperformance a little bit more modest.

当你展望二月剩余时间和春季时，你在关注什么？

When you're looking ahead into the rest of February, spring, what are you watching?

是的。

Yeah.

短期内的另类收益、私募信贷和私募股权的情况。

Alt earnings in the very near term, private credit, private equity, what they're seeing.

那里确实有很多噪音，所以我们 Definitely 在密切关注这些信息。

There's certainly a lot of noise there, so we're definitely looking to listen to that.

你知道，我认为在更远的未来，你需要关注失业率。

You know, I would say beyond the very near term, you want to keep an eye on unemployment.

我们的失业率目前是4.4%，我认为这是一个健康的水平。

I mean, we're at 4.4% today, which is, I think, healthy biometrics.

但如果你的失业率继续上升到4.4%以上，甚至达到5%，人们可能会开始提出一些问题，但劳动力市场和金融体系对此有相当大的敏感性。

But if you are moving higher towards that four high fours, 5%, I think people might start asking some questions, but the labor market and financial certai has a lot of exposure to that.

我认为你需要关注美联储的举措，不仅包括利率，还包括资产负债表的规模。

I think you wanna keep an eye on, what the Fed does, not only with rates, but also with the, size of the balance sheet too.

好的。

Alright.

最后一个问题。

Final question.

这个周末就是超级碗了。

Super Bowl this weekend.

是的

Yeah.

我知道。

I know.

你和我都是喷气机队的球迷。

You and I are Jets fans.

所以我们的四分卫要对阵我们的宿敌。

So we got our quarterback going up against our nemesis.

你支持谁？

Who do you like?

你知道的，看吧。

You know, look.

几年前当山姆·达诺尔德还是喷气机队的四分卫时，他打过一场‘见鬼’的比赛，当时他好像看见了鬼魂。

Several years ago when Sam Darnold was a Jets quarterback, he had the ghosts game where he was seeing ghosts.

所以我希望，这会是一场为那场失利复仇的比赛。

And so I'm hoping that, this is gonna be a revenge game for that.

我真不敢相信，经过这么长时间，爱国者队又回到了超级碗。

I personally can't believe that the Patriots are back in the Super Bowl after this long.

这真是我的无尽噩梦。

It's my never ending nightmare.

但你知道，我支持海鹰队，不过我们还是拭目以待吧。

But, you know, so I'm rooting for the seahawks, but we'll see what happens.

我觉得这会是一场精彩的比赛。

I think it should be a great game.

作为新英格兰的终身居民，我也支持海鹰队。

As a lifelong, resident of New England, I think I'm rooting for the seahawks as well.

作为一名喷气机队球迷。

As a jets fan.

我们这辈子都别想再听到尽头了。

We'll never hear the end of it.

作为一名喷气机队球迷，你根本没法忍受这个。

As a jets fan, you just can't live with it.

克里斯蒂安，非常感谢你参与。

Christian, thanks so much for joining.

谢谢你的邀请。

Thanks for having me.

本期《市场》节目就到这里。

That does it for this week's episode of the markets.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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