长期黄金与长期股票

这里是市场。

This is the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西，今天是1月29日，星期四，我正在高盛交易大厅，与安舒尔·萨加尔交谈，他是全球银行与市场部门固定收益、货币和大宗商品业务的全球联席主管。

I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Thursday, January 29, and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Anshul Sagal, who is global co head of fixed income currencies and commodities within the global banking and markets division.

安舒尔，非常感谢你加入我们。

Anshul, thanks so much for joining us.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you for having me.

我们直接进入本周的新闻。

Let's cut to this week's news.

美联储周三举行了会议。

The Fed, they met on Wednesday.

市场对此反应平静。

The market seemed to take it in stride.

你的看法是什么？

What was your take?

我认为这是一次低 stakes 的会议。

I think it was it was a low stakes meeting.

市场原本就不预期美联储会改变政策。

The Fed wasn't expected to change policy.

我认为在当前经济周期的这个阶段，各种因素正在朝不同方向发展。

I think largely, we're in that phase in in in the economic cycle where things are going in various different ways.

市场预期通胀会下降，但当你看大宗商品价格时，

Expectations are for inflation to come down, but then you look at commodities prices.

它们正在飙升。

They're soaring.

这会蔓延开来吗？

So is that going to spill over?

你看看移民问题。

You look at immigration.

进入这个国家的人数已经减少到几乎为零。

The number of people coming into the country has dwindled to nearly zero.

这意味着劳动力在谈判桌上会拥有更大的话语权，从而可能推动工资上涨，并在未来导致通货膨胀吗？

Does that mean that labor is going to have more negotiation power at the table, which could lead to wage rises, which could lead to inflation down the road.

再次强调，现在还处于早期阶段，要理清这一切为时过早。

Again, it's early innings to figure all of this out.

显然，你有财政刺激和信贷刺激，但很大程度上，这不过是大量的焦虑和担忧。

Obviously, you've got the fiscal impulse and the credit impulse, but largely, it's a lot of hand wringing.

市场预期今年会有两次降息，这个预期并不错误，但我们认为这两次降息反映的是一种双峰分布：如果到今年第三季度劳动力市场大幅疲软，美联储可能需要降息四次；也可能一次都不降。

The expectation that the market has, which isn't wrong, is like two cuts this year, but we think the two cuts represent more a bimodal distribution where the Fed might need to cut four times if labor market weakens a lot by Q3 of this year, or we get no cuts.

而市场最终的主流预期仍然是两次降息，这大致对应了市场对年底联邦基金利率的预期。

And that's sort of like the mode of that market ends up being two cuts, which is give or take where the market is for end of year Fed funds rate.

真正令人兴奋的事情还在前方，那就是人工智能资本支出带来的刺激，这显然是一次巨大的信贷刺激。

The exciting thing is still in front of us, which is the combination of the AI CapEx impulse, which is a massive credit impulse, obviously.

我相信我们会谈到这一点。

I'm sure we'll talk about it.

还有一个重大的利好财政刺激措施。

The one big beautiful bill is a fiscal impulse.

当然，如果美联储采取宽松立场的话。

And, of course, if the the Fed has an easing easing posture.

美联储已经采取了宽松立场，下一任美联储也会如此。

This Fed already has an easing posture, and the next Fed too.

这并不意味着他们必须降息。

That doesn't mean that they need to cut.

这只是说，如果经济出现波动，美联储会提供支持。

It's just that should there be a wobble in the economy, you've got the Fed put.

目前这一支持机制仍然存在，而且未来是否持续，可能取决于下一任美联储主席是谁。

It's intact right now and conceivably depending on who the next Fed chair is.

但在大多数情况下，我们认为这一点在新任美联储主席上任时会更加相关。

But in most circumstances, we think that that puts even more, relevant, when the new Fed chair is elected.

你提到有‘美联储护盘’，但你也谈到，通过人工智能和去年那项宏伟的财政刺激法案所带来的刺激措施。

You talk about a put there, but you also talk about, you know, the stimulus that's coming in through both AI and also the fiscal stimulus from the Big Bad Beautiful Bill from last year.

我们目前是处于过热状态，而不是放缓状态？

Are we in more of a overheating situation than we are in a slowdown situation?

你如何评估这一点？

How would you gauge it?

对我来说，现在是参与市场的一个极其令人兴奋的时期，因为自1982年以来，如果你观察美国经济以及由此带来的全球经济走势，主导主题一直是金融化。

So for me, this is like an amazingly exciting time to be in markets because since 1982, like, if you look at the trajectory of The US economy and the global economy as a consequence of that, it's been the theme has been one of financialization.

金融化程度大大增加了。

A lot more financialization.

这正是标普指数从大约14倍市盈率稳定上升到22、23倍市盈率的原因。

That's how the S and P goes from, like, 14 PE to stably 22, 23 PE.

我们现在正经历一个相反方向的转变。

We're going through a shift in the opposite direction.

这是工业化。

This is industrialization.

这是我们这个时代底特律的写照。

This is like the Detroit of our times.

就像当年底特律生产的汽车比世界上其他地方加起来还多，从哈瓦那到河内，每条街道上都是美国汽车。

Like, when Detroit was belting out more cars than the rest of the world put together, it was American cars on every street from Havana to Hanoi.

但今天，与此相当的是人工智能资本支出浪潮。

But today, the equivalent of that is the AI CapEx wave.

因此，我们预计到2026年，全球在人工智能相关技术上的资本支出将达到1万亿美元。

So we expect, in 2026, about $1,000,000,000,000 of global CapEx on AI related technologies.

其中大部分将惠及美国企业。

Most of that will accrue to American corporates.

这是一场全球的工业化进程。

That is an industrialization of the world.

这将成为未来五到十年推动GDP增长的基础设施。

This will be the infrastructure that will be the engine of GDP growth over the next five to ten years.

因此，从这个角度看，美联储政策固然重要，财政政策也至关重要，但与这波投资浪潮相比，它们的影响相对较小。

So when you look at it from that lens, like Fed policy matters, like fiscal policy matters, but they're smaller contributors to this as compared to this wave of investment.

因此，我们预计经济增长将非常强劲。

So we expect growth to be amazing.

但这是否意味着劳动者也会对此感到满意呢？

Does that mean that labor is going to feel great about it?

不。

No.

劳动者的收入会增加吗？

Will labor incomes go up?

肯定会。

100%.

劳动者的收入占比会下降吗？

Will labor's share of income go down?

很可能。

Probably.

这会导致更多的政治动荡吗？

Is there going to be more political turmoil as a result of that?

很可能。

Probably.

这会带来什么后果吗？

Are there going to be ramifications to that?

是的。

Yes.

这只是在重新表述我们当前所处的K型经济，除非劳工能够参与决策并争取更好的工资条件。

Just another way of restating the k shaped economy we're living through right now unless labor has a seat at the table and is able to negotiate better wage terms.

在这种情况下，你是否会面临通货膨胀的风险？

In which case, do you run the risk of inflation?

是的。

Yes.

这是必然结果吗？

Is that a foregone conclusion?

不是。

No.

人工智能技术具有抑制通货膨胀的作用，加上一个老龄化社会。

AI technologies are disinflationary, an aging world.

我们当前或未来几十年将面临的 demographics 是抑制通货膨胀的力量。

The demographics that we live with or will live with over the next few decades are disinflationary forces.

这些因素的交汇点，而我们迄今为止近五十年来从未真正需要厘清这些不同影响。

It's the confluence of all of these things, and we haven't really had to disentangle all of these various effects for close to fifty years at this point in time.

因此，这是一个非常令人兴奋的时期。

So that is a very exciting time.

还有很多未知之处。

There's a lot unknown.

但我们预计未来两年内财政、信贷和货币政策的组合将极为宽松。

But we expect the combination of fiscal plus credit plus monetary policy over the next two years to be highly accommodative.

非增长应该会非常高。

Non growth should be very high.

这就是为什么我们不再谈论衰退了。

And that's why we're not talking about recessions anymore.

现在的问题只是在这个世界中谁会成为赢家和输家。

It's just a question of who the winners and losers will be in this world.

是的。

Yeah.

世界上正在发生足够的结构性变化，只要这种结构性动力持续存在，你就无需过于担心经济过热。

There's enough secular change going on in the world that you don't have to worry so much about overheating as long as that secular momentum stays behind it.

正是如此。

That's it.

说得非常好。

That that's very well put.

但另一件正在发生的事是本周的美元。

Another thing that's happening though is the US dollar this week.

因此，你知道，这似乎与美国例外论的终结有关。

And so, you know, that's sort of tied up it seems in a, you know, end of US exceptionalism.

正如你所指出的，这是全球性的工业化，而不仅仅是美国的工业化。

As you've pointed out, it's a global industrialization, not just a US industrialization.

你如何看待美元以及它可能如何影响这一切？

What do you make of the US dollar and how that might impact all of this?

美元的这一轮走势，部分源于世界正变得更加碎片化。

So there's a certain quantum of the move in dollar that is just a world that's becoming more fragmented.

全球金融危机后，各国央行——至少发达市场的央行——因为能获得互换额度，它们持有黄金的理由就不存在了。

Central banks after the GFC, because they had access to swap lines, at least the DM central banks did, the reason for them to hold gold was just not there.

它们觉得，好吧，任何时候遇到困境需要流动性时，

They were like, okay, anytime we're in a pinch, we need liquidity.

美联储都会用美元兑换我们的本币，这应该能帮我们度过危机时期。

The Fed will give us give us dollars in exchange for our local currency, and and that should tide us through crisis times.

但在当前环境下，这一点就不那么明确了。

In this world, that's less clear.

你能想象在危机时刻，政府为了向欧洲提供美元而谈判某些地缘政治条款的情况吗？

Can you see yourself in a place where the administration is negotiating some geopolitical terms in a in a moment of crisis just so that you can give Europe, say say, US dollars in a crisis?

在那种情况下，你是否会有动机转向远离美元，转而持有一些贵金属？

Potentially, in that world, are you incentivized to basically shift away from the dollar and and own some precious metals?

很可能。

Probably.

与全球股票或固定收益市场相比，这些都是很小的市场。

These are tiny markets compared to global stocks or fixed income.

因此，需求失衡的最小变化都会导致价格呈指数级飙升，这正是我们所看到的，或者说是今天所见的爆炸式增长。

So the smallest change in imbalance in demand makes prices go parabolic, which is what we've seen, or exponential, really, from what we're seeing today.

所以，就美元而言，如果以十二到二十四个月为投资周期，我们所关注的优先级顺序实际上并没有改变。

So when it comes to the dollar, like, structurally, if one is trading with a horizon of, say say, twelve to twenty four months, the totem pole we look at hasn't really changed.

在这个世界里，由于货币贬值，你希望持有实物商品。

In this world, because of monetary debasement, you want to own physical commodities.

你希望持有黄金。

You want to own gold.

你希望持有铜。

You want to own copper.

铜还受益于人工智能相关的因素。

Copper has, like, AI related things going for it as well.

这些因素位居金字塔顶端。

That sits at the top of the pyramid.

然后，如果我们认为美国将因人工智能资本支出浪潮和我们所讨论的再工业化而获得不成比例的收益，那么美元就紧随其后。

Then for us, if The US is going to benefit disproportionately because of the AI CapEx wave and the reindustrialization that we've talked about, then the dollar sits next.

然后你还有其他发达经济体货币。

And then you have other DM currencies.

至于新兴市场货币，当然，你交易它们是为了获取凸性，因为在增长型世界中，新兴市场通常表现良好，尤其是商品型新兴市场。

And EM, of course, you're trading it for convexity because in a growth y world, EM generally does well, especially the commodity EMs.

因此，出于这个原因，你希望参与这些市场，但这完全是另一笔交易。

You So want to be along those for that reason, but that's a completely different It's a trade.

这并不是一种结构性头寸。

It's not a structural position.

所以我们并不特别担心美元贬值的交易。

So we're not particularly worried about the dollar debasement trade.

我们并不认为美元会以有意义的方式大幅下跌。

Like, we don't think it's going to run away from us in a meaningful way.

归根结底，如果你想投资人工智能资本支出周期，你仍然希望持有大量美国企业资产。

Like, at the end of the day, if you want to invest in the AI CapEx cycle, you still want to own a lot of US corporates.

你需要美元来持有这些资产。

You need dollars to own that.

这在结构上与我们六个月前的处境并无不同。

That isn't structurally any different than where we found ourselves six months ago.

但当前的地缘政治环境并不利于美元。

But the geopolitics of it is not conducive to the dollar right now.

因此我们在美元头寸上处于被动，但我们仍希望从多头而非空头角度交易美元。

So so we're back footed on our dollar positioning, but we continue to want to trade dollar from the long side, not the short side.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

这说得通。

It makes sense.

所以，这也是一个有趣的视角。

And so, you know, it's an interesting perspective too.

我想持有黄金、铜，以及可能的美元。

I wanna own gold, copper, and then maybe the dollar.

那股票呢？

What about stocks?

你也想持有股票吗？

Do do you wanna own stocks there too?

我想。

I do.

股票的话，还是基于十二到二十四个月的周期来看。

Stocks, again, with a twelve to twenty four month horizon.

如果你相信我们正处于全球经济，尤其是美国经济信贷扩张的早期阶段，而这种规模的扩张，至少在七十多年来从未见过。

If you believe that we're in the early innings of a credit expansion in the global economy and certainly in The US economy, and the magnitude of this we haven't seen since for at least seventy years at this point in time.

要找到如此规模的信贷扩张，你必须回溯到二战后时期。

One has to really go back to to the post World War two period to to to to have a credit expansion of this of this magnitude.

你应该持有那些具有上行增长潜力、能够实现15%到20%增长的资产。

You want to own assets that have upside growth, that can grow at 15 to 20%.

放弃这种增长机会是没有道理的。

To forgo that tail doesn't make sense.

所以，再次强调，在我们的优先级排序中，你应当采用两端策略配置投资组合。

So again, in the totem pole, for us, you want to barbell your portfolio.

你应当做多股票，因为它们能带来20%的增长，同时也要做多实物资产和贵金属，它们本身没有增长属性，但在这个世界里，这就是我们的两端策略，而不是像固定收益资产那样。

You want to be long stocks because they can give you 20% growth, and you want to be long physical and precious metal, which have no growth attached to them, but that's the barbell portfolio in this world, instead of, say, fixed income for us.

固定收益资产会带来其他问题。

Fixed income comes with other issues.

如果你的投资组合同时持有多头股票和黄金，当通胀上升而美联储无所作为时，黄金会帮助你。

If you have a portfolio that's long stocks and long gold, if inflation picks up and the Fed does nothing, the gold helps you.

但如果美联储对这种通胀压力做出反应，利率大幅下跌，股票和黄金都会表现不佳。

But if the Fed basically reacts to said inflationary impulse, rates sell off a lot, stocks do poorly, gold does poorly.

因此，对我们而言，投资组合应该是做多股票、做多贵金属、做多工业品，并做空久期，这样能更全面地平衡组合。

So the portfolio for us is like long stocks, long precious, long industrials, and short duration because it rounds out the portfolio well.

是的。

Yeah.

那里有很多值得思考的地方。

A lot to think about there.

让我跟进一下你提到的杠铃策略中的黄金部分。

Let me follow-up on one part of that barbell, which is gold.

有些人担心黄金的价格已经有点超前了。

Some people are concerned that gold's gotten a little ahead of itself.

你也是这么认为的吗？

Are you?

大宗商品市场通常只有很少的自由流通量。

Commodities markets generally have a very small amount of free float that's available.

黄金确实如此。

That's certainly true for gold.

在全球现有的黄金总量中，目前只有5%是用于投机持有的。

Of the total outstanding amount of gold in the world, only 5% is is is speculatively held right now.

因此，如果有人想买入黄金，他们能买到的数量就仅限于这一部分。

So if someone wanted to buy gold, that's the extent of the amount of gold they could buy.

所以，如果一家央行决定摆脱美元、增持黄金，这将导致价格剧烈波动，而这正是我们正在观察到的现象。

So if a central bank decides they want to pivot away from the dollar and own more gold, that is going to move the price quite violently, which is what we're observing.

这对所有大宗商品来说都是如此。

This is true across the board for all commodities.

因此，大宗商品市场从来不会有钟形分布。

So commodities markets never really have a bell shaped distribution.

它们具有肥尾特征。

They have fat tails.

因此，价格会剧烈波动。

As a consequence, prices do move violently.

这种情况能持续下去吗？

Can this continue?

这真的取决于全球还将看到多少货币贬值。

It really depends on how much more monetary debasement we're going to see globally.

这还取决于当前的地缘政治局势。

It depends on the geopolitics of the situation.

但我们的预期是，如果未来十年全球名义增长率将达到百分之五以上，黄金在私人投资组合中仍有其一席之地。

But our expectation is that if nominal growth over the next decade is going to globally is going to be five plus percent, there is a place for gold in private portfolios.

它为持有增长型资产提供了良好的稳定作用。

It provides a great ballast to being long, growthy stuff.

而且总会发生意外。

And there are going to be accidents.

会出现类似新冠疫情那样的冲击事件，在当今这个世界，各国政府都会进行财政扩张，因为这是迎合民粹的做法。

There are going to be episodes like like shocks, like COVID, where at this point in this world, governments globally will fiscally expand because that's a populist thing to do.

因此，我们并不认为这是对黄金的投机狂热。

So we don't see this as speculative mania for gold.

我们认为这是黄金长达数十年的趋势。

We think this a multi decade trajectory of gold.

那么，我们是否预期黄金会像过去那样继续呈指数级上涨？

Now, do we expect gold to continue to appreciate exponentially as it has?

不会。

No.

它可能会过度上涨。

It might run ahead of itself.

比如，从2010年到2020年，我们经历了一个成长型股票表现极为出色的十年，但黄金在这期间几乎没什么大动静。

Like, we went through a decade where growth stocks did exceptionally well from 2010 to 2020, but gold barely moved in large part.

这不过是对此前滞后的一种追赶。

This is catch up to that.

所以，对于贵金属市场出现的大量泡沫，我们并不担心。

So we're not fussed about about, like, there being a lot of froth when it comes to precious metals.

好的。

Alright.

下周你关注什么？

What are you watching for next week?

我们进入二月了。

We run into February.

有很多事情在发生。

We got a lot going on.

我下周要去迈阿密，希望一切顺利

I'm gonna be in Miami next week, so Stay I hope it's

暖和。

warm.

谢谢。

Thank you.

好的，乔尔。

Alright, Joel.

非常感谢你抽出时间

Thanks so much for taking the time

感谢你的邀请。

for having me.

非常感谢。

Appreciate it.

本期《市场》节目就到这里。

That does it for this week's episode of the market.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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过往表现不预示未来结果。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

高盛及其任何关联机构均不对本材料中陈述或信息的准确性或完整性作出任何明示或暗示的声明，并对基于此类信息用于任何目的而产生的任何责任一概不承担。

Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warrant expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.

文中提及的任何第三方机构名称均为其所属公司的财产，此处仅用于信息和识别目的，不暗示任何此类公司与高盛之间存在所有权或许可关系。

Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

为方便起见，此处提供文字稿，但可能与原始视频或音频内容存在差异。

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

高盛不对本 transcript 中的任何错误负责。

Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript.

未经高盛明确书面同意，任何接收方不得复制、分发、发布或全文或部分复制本材料，亦不得向任何其他人披露。

This material should not be copied, distributed, published or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

版权所有 2026 年，高盛。

Copyright 2026, Goldman Sachs.

保留所有权利。

All rights reserved.