新的担忧

这里是市场频道。

This is the Markets.

我是克里斯·哈西，今天是3月6日，星期五。

I'm Chris Hussey, today is Friday, March 6.

我目前在高盛交易大厅，与乔什·施弗林在一起，他是全球银行与市场部门的首席战略官兼金融风险主管。

And I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Josh Schiffrin, who is Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Financial Risk for Global Banking and Markets.

市场。

Markets.

乔什，非常感谢你加入我们。

Josh, thanks so much for joining us.

今天能和你们在一起真好。

Nice to be with you today.

又是精彩的一周，又是精彩的一天。

What a week and what a day again.

我们刚刚公布了就业数据，表现疲软。

We just got payrolls, came in weak.

你对这个数据怎么看？

What do you make of the number?

你对市场的反应有何看法？

What do you make of the market reaction?

我认为这个数据明显低于预期，可能受到出生死亡模型、天气以及其他一些暂时性因素的干扰。

I think it was a a clearly weaker than expected number, You know, maybe noisy due to, you know, the the birth death model, weather, know, and other other, you know, potentially more transient factors.

这只是一个月份的数据，但我确实认为这是一个低于预期的数字。

It's only one month, but I do think it was a it was a weaker than expected number.

我最关注的是失业率，它上升到了4.4%。

I'm most focused on the the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 4.4.

我认为这是需要密切关注的关键指标。

I think that's, you know, extremely key variable to to to watch.

我也认为，目前市场并没有关注这一点。

I also think, you know, that's not the market's focus right now.

市场显然更关注地缘政治和能源市场。

The market's clearly focused on geopolitics, energy markets.

好的。

Alright.

那我们转到地缘政治和能源市场吧，因为这才是当前的焦点，斯特拉。

So let's jump to the geopolitics and the energy markets because that is the story, Stella.

它甚至盖过了本周的就业报告。

It's even, overshadowing the payrolls report this week.

以你现在的看法，当前的情况如何？

What is the situation today as you see it now?

由于这种地缘政治风险持续高位，我们是否正逼近一个压力点，还是另有原因？

Are we getting to a pressure point because of the amount of time this geopolitical risk has been elevated, or is it something else?

地缘政治显然备受关注。

Geopolitics are clearly in focus.

我认为不确定性区间已显著扩大，但关键的是，本周的主题与今年前两个月形成了鲜明对比，那时人们普遍预期强劲增长、通胀回归目标，以及美联储进一步宽松的可能性。

I think that the uncertainty bands have widened materially, but I think the key thing is themes this week have been counter to that from the first two months of the year, which was characterized by expectations of strong growth, inflation returning to to to target, and, you know, the the the the the possibility of further Fed easing.

我认为，油价上涨无疑在不同程度上加剧了所有这些复杂性。

I think that higher oil prices clearly complicate, you know, all of that to to to varying degrees.

这损害了增长前景。

It hurts the the growth outlook.

它提高了通胀预期，同时也对从美国转向世界其他地区的这一主题施加了压力。

It, you know, increases the inflation outlook, and it also, you know, puts puts pressure on, you know, a theme of, you know, moving out of US to the the rest of the world.

高能源价格可能会对世界其他地区相对于美国造成负面影响。

You know, high energy prices, you know, hurt maybe hurt the rest of the world relative to to to The US.

我认为所有这些因素都与今年前两个月的主题背道而驰。

And I think all of those all of those factors run counter, to the to the to the themes of the first two months.

这是个很好的观点。

That's a great point.

因此，地缘政治风险现在可能正在影响增长和通胀。

So we've got, the geopolitical risk is now potentially impacting growth and inflation.

我们看到失业率有所上升。

We've seen the unemployment tick up.

似乎现在所有因素都对增长不利。

Seems like everything is growth negative right now.

你对当前经济状况怎么看？

What do you make of the state of the economy today?

当然，相比一周前，现在的担忧更多了。

Certainly more, you know, more worries than than a week ago.

你知道，仅这一份就业报告和本周其他一些指标，比如非制造业ISM，都明显更强了。

You know, just one jobs report and some of the other indicators this week, whether it was nonmanufacturing ISM, were were clearly clearly stronger.

你知道，油价本周大幅上涨，这为通胀前景增添了明显的复杂性。

You know, oil prices, you know, up very sharply this week, you know, adds, you know you know, a a a clear complexity to the to the inflation picture.

总体来看，情况显然变得更加不确定了。

It's clearly just overall gotten much much more uncertain.

你知道，我们得看看地缘政治局势究竟会如何发展。

You know, we'll we'll we'll have to see in particular, you know, how the geopolitical situation plays out.

你知道，我觉得本周这一系列数据并没有明显负面到足以彻底改变劳动力市场的前景。

You know, I I I I didn't think, you know, the the collection of of data this week was, you know, so demonstratively negative for the labor market that it broadly changes the the outlook.

你知道，但就业报告确实很疲软，对吧？

You know, but the payroll report was was was weak, You know?

但这只是单次报告，我认为这提高了下一次报告的预期门槛。

But it's one one report, and I think it it ups the ante for the next one.

所以我们来稍微分析一下这一点，因为通常当我们遇到一点增长冲击时，现在失业率有所上升，通胀也上升了，美联储会出手干预，但现在的美联储处境复杂，因为我们正逐渐陷入滞胀局面。

So let's unpack that a little bit too because normally when we get a little bit of a growth shock and now we've seen unemployment go tick up and we've got inflation to get up, The Fed comes to the rescue, but it's a complicated Fed because we have sort of a stagflation situation now developing.

美联储的下一步会是什么？

What is the Fed's next move?

这无疑变得更加具有挑战性，尤其是考虑到通胀已经长期高于目标水平。

It certainly gets more challenging, particularly given inflation having been above target for some time.

现在，可能会出现额外的通胀冲击。

Now potentially, you know, an additional inflationary shock.

我仍然明确认为，下一步是降息。

I I still clearly think the next move is is a cut.

我知道，单凭油价冲击本身并不会导致他们加息，但我认为这使整体形势变得更加复杂，也影响了降息发生的时间和节奏。

You know, I don't I don't think, you know, oil price shock in and of itself would lead them lead them to hike, but I think it complicates, you know, the overall picture and, you know, when those cuts might occur and at at what pace.

每当出现一种推高通胀、可能抑制增长的冲击时，对央行来说，局面就会变得更加棘手。

Anytime you have a, you know, shock, you know, that increases inflation and, you know, maybe decreases growth, it becomes more of a challenging situation for a central bank.

所以让我结合这一切跟你谈谈目前的仓位配置。

So let me talk to you about positioning in the context of all of this a little bit.

因为正如你所指出的，那些主题完全颠倒了。

Because as you pointed out, the themes totally turned on their head.

你知道，之前奏效的东西现在不灵了，而主题一直被油价主导。

You know, what was working, it hasn't been working, and the themes have been dominated by oil.

那么你现在怎么看仓位配置？

Where do you see positioning today now?

我认为，毫无疑问，这周已经进行了仓位缩减。

I think certainly, you know, there's been positioning reduction that that this week.

你知道，我觉得这周的一些走势很难解释。

You know, I think some of the some of the moves this week have been, you know, hard hard to explain.

你知道，尽管地缘政治紧张局势明显加剧，黄金却并未上涨。

You know, gold not rallying, you know, in spite of, you know, a clear increase in geopolitical tensions.

我认为有些走势其实是对今年至今表现优异的资产进行了减仓。

I think some of the the moves have been, you know, reductions in in the year to date winners.

你知道，我觉得已经有一些仓位缩减了，但我觉得如果冲突持续下去，并且最近的走势持续，那么进一步缩减的可能性是存在的。

You know, I think there's been some position reduction, you know, but I think I think if if the conflict extends and, you know, the recent moves, you know, persist, I think there's the certainly the possibility for more.

对。

Right.

所以这一切都取决于冲突会持续多久。

So a lot of this has to do with how long the conflict lasts.

与此同时，你应该关注什么呢？

In the meantime, you know, where should you be focused on?

是石油吗？

Is it oil?

是利率吗？

Is it rates?

是汇市吗？

Is it FX?

是股票吗？

Is it stocks?

你在这里更倾向于关注哪里？

Where where do you like to focus here?

嗯，我认为我们应该关注所有方面，因为目前所有市场都处于高度波动和活跃状态。

Well, I I think I think we should focus everywhere, but I think I think all markets, you know, are are are volatile and active right now.

我认为石油显然是主要驱动因素，它加剧了通胀担忧，天然气市场也是如此，还会对其他所有市场产生连锁影响。

I think oil is is clearly, you know, the the the the driver, you know, increasing inflation concerns, you know, natural gas markets as well and kind of the knock on, you know, effects to to all the to all the all the other markets.

我不认为会有任何市场能独善其身，但如果你非要选一个最值得关注的，那一定是石油——要密切关注它的走势是持续、扩大还是回落。

I don't think there will be an unaffected market, but I think, you know, oil is you know, if you had to pick one, you know, that would be the the the one, you know, to be keenly focused on, you know, whether the move sticks, persists and increases, or reverts.

而且，我预计全球市场将经历一段动荡且多变的时期。

And, you know, I expect it to be a volatile time and a and a fluid time for global markets.

现在是该交易，还是该对冲？

Is it a time to trade, or is it a time to hedge?

如果现在适合交易，你最看好的交易是什么？

And if it is a time to trade, what's your favorite trade?

我认为现在最好还是保持谨慎，充分意识到不确定性极高。

I think it's generally a time to kind of keep things closer to home, appreciating, you know, that uncertainty is extremely high.

你知道，要准确判断这种情况将如何发展是非常困难的。

You know, it's a very hard, you know, situation to have a strong read on how it will evolve.

所以我认为，通常的做法是把重心放在身边，只交易那些你有强烈长期信念的东西。

So I think it's generally a position, you know, to keep things closer to home and only trade on things you have like a a strong long term conviction on.

对我来说，当我展望未来时，有一件事我一直坚信，那就是美国收益率曲线会随着时间推移变陡。

You know, for me, when I I look out, like, one thing that, you know, I continue to to believe in is The US curve will steepen over time.

我认为二年期与十年期国债利差有潜力随着时间推移进一步走阔。

You know, I think the two's tens curve, you know, has capacity, you know, to to to to steepen out over time.

展望未来，除了冲突之外，还有什么是我们希望你关注的吗？

Looking ahead, is there anything we wanna keep your focus on other than the conflict?

我认为冲突显然是市场和市场关注的中心，这正是我会紧盯的。

I think the conflict, you know, is the clear, you know, you know, epicenter for for markets and and market focus, and that's what I'll be watching.

乔什，非常感谢你抽出时间与我们交流。

Josh, thanks so much for taking the time with us.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thank you, guys, for having me.

本期《市场》节目到此结束。

That does it for this week's episode of the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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