科技即将迎来复兴？

这里是市场。

This is the markets.

我是迈克·华盛顿。

I'm Mike Washington.

今天是2月19日，星期四，我正在高盛股票交易大厅，与我的同事皮特·卡勒汉在一起。

Today is Thursday, February 19, and I'm on the Goldman Sachs equity trading floor joined by my colleague, Pete Callahan.

皮特是我们全球银行与市场部门的美国科技、媒体和电信行业专家。

Pete is our US technology, media and telecommunications sector sector specialist in global banking and markets.

皮特，感谢你加入我。

Pete, thanks for joining me.

很高兴能来这里。

Glad to be here.

如果我展望2026年，无论在个人还是职业层面，人工智能的进步都是无处不在的焦点。

If I think about 2026 and conversations both personally and professionally, AI advancements are front and center anywhere you look.

然而，当我观察股票市场，特别是科技板块时，今年到目前为止表现却严重落后。

Yet when I look at equity markets, tech specifically, it's been a big underperforming year to date.

你对此怎么看？有什么特别引起你注意的吗？

What do you make of that, and what's been standing out to you?

是的。

Yeah.

这是个好问题。

It's a good question.

从媒体和新闻报道来看，你根本不会意识到科技股今年承受了压力，毕竟生成式AI引发了如此多的热议。

You wouldn't know it from looking at at the media and the press that tech's been under pressure this year just given all the excitement around generative AI.

但事实确实如此。

But it has been right.

今年科技板块下跌了大约百分之三到四，明显落后于大盘。

The tech sector down about three or four percent this year has lagged the market by a fair bit.

我认为今年发生的事情很大程度上是资金轮动。

And I think what's going on this year has been a lot about rotations.

对。

Right.

所以，市场上出现了这种广泛扩散的动态，许多投资者都谈到了这一点。

So you've had this broadening out dynamic in the market that lots of investors have talked about.

这其中很大一部分与对美国经济2026年前景的转变或更积极的看法有关。

A lot of it's tied to a shifting or frankly more constructive view on The U.

美。

S.

国。

Economy in 2026.

但我想，人工智能领域的故事也经历了一次转变。

But you've also had this transition I think in the A.

国。

I.

过去三年的核心主题其实是建设周期。

Story from you know the last three years are really about the build cycle.

你经常听到关于‘卖铲子’的说法。

You heard a lot about picks and shovels.

今年更多地转向了人工智能的实施层面。

This year has been a lot more about the implementation side of A.

I。

I.

市场开始对这一方面更加关注，无论是积极面还是潜在的负面因素。

And the market's starting to get a little bit more focused on that both on the positive side and on the potential negative side.

因此，在2026年日历年里，你看到市场出现了一种轮动，资金流向更具防御性或实物资产，因为投资者开始思考人工智能如何在企业层面和消费层面上部署。

And so you've seen this kind of rotation into either more defensive or physical assets in the market in calendar twenty six as investors start to think about where and how AI is deployed across enterprises in the consumer layer.

如果我们更多地脱离叙事，转向基本面，比如我们已经经历了两个季度的财报期。

If we shift more, like, away from the narrative, for instance, into fundamentals, we're through two q earnings period.

在财报和基本面中，有什么特别吸引你的地方，让你觉得它们传递的信息可能与叙事不同？

What has stood out to you about earnings and our fundamentals telling you something that maybe the narrative is not?

是的。

Yeah.

你说得对，迈克。

You're right, Mike.

所以，如果我们只看第四季度的财报季以及各公司对2026年开局的展望，科技行业的基本面故事是积极的。

So the the fundamental story in tech, if we just looked at q four earnings season and how companies are sounding to start 2026, it's good.

对吧？

Right?

你看通信服务，看信息技术这个子板块，再看七巨头。

You look at comm services, you look at Infotech, the subsector, you look at Mag seven.

它们的盈利增长和收入增长仍然远超市场其他板块。

This is still getting best in class earnings growth and revenue growth relative to the rest of the market.

因此，过去几周值得关注的是，财报整体稳健，超预期的比例在市场中处于最高水平。

And so I think what was interesting to watch play out over the last several weeks was largely solid earnings, some of the highest beat percent rates in the market.

但股价表现却疲软。

But price action has been soggy.

当然，股票是前瞻性工具，市场仍在纠结于这样一个问题：虽然现在情况不错，但我该如何展望未来？

And of course, equities are forward looking instruments and the market's still wrestling with this given poll of, yes, things are good today, but how do I think about the future?

随着生成式AI的兴起，我相比过去是获得了更多还是更少的可见性？

Do I have more or less visibility than I used to given the rise of generative AI?

是的。

Yeah.

当你提到Mag七，并想到这个群体年复一年展现出的强劲盈利增长时。

When you mentioned, Mag seven, right, and you think about the robust earnings growth that we've seen time and time again year over year within that cohort.

资本支出，我知道这些数字已经被上调了。

CapEx, I know numbers have been walked up.

你认为资本支出对该板块、该细分市场造成了多大影响，以至于投资逻辑发生了变化？

Do you feel that CapEx has weighed on that sector, that particular pocket of the market that much to where the investment thesis has changed?

因为如果我纵观全局，每一家Mag七公司，我认为截至今年至今都下跌了

Because if I look across the board, every single max seven stock, I think it's down year to date as of

而且这是我们不常看到的情况。

this And it's not something we're used to seeing.

所以你说得对。

So you're right.

关于那里正在发生的事情。

Of what's going on there.

我认为确实出现了一次预期的上修，特别是在第四季度财报之后，关于资本支出和2026财年的资本密集度。

I do think there was just an expectations reset, you know, to the upside over Q4 earnings around CapEx and capital intensity in calendar twenty six.

这会改变你所说的投资逻辑吗？

Does that make it a thesis changer to your question?

我不确定这真的改变了投资逻辑。

I'm not sure it's a thesis changer.

我认为它只是在某种程度上提高了门槛。

I think what it does is it just raises the stakes to some degree.

是的。

Right.

现在当你投入这么多资金并承担这些成本时，确实给未来六到十二个月乃至二十四个月内实现收入和产品交付带来了巨大压力。

Now when you're investing this much and you're you're absorbing that cost, it really puts pressure to deliver revenues and product over the next six, twelve and twenty four months.

我认为这就是市场目前正在消化的内容。

And I think that's what the market is digesting right now.

我们已经将这些前期成本大量反映在模型中，而这些公司也向我们传达了这一点。

We took a lot of that upfront cost back into models and we heard that from these companies.

现在的问题是未来六到十二个月内如何实现收入增长，而市场在这方面变得更加审慎。

Now it's about delivering on the top line over the next six to twelve months, and the market's just being a little bit more judicial there.

今年你被问得最多的问题，肯定是软件领域到底发生了什么。

Your most asked question this year has to be what the heck is going on with software.

是的。

Yeah.

给我们讲讲这个故事。

Walk us through that story.

是的，迈克。

Yeah, Mike.

听我说。

Listen.

我认为这个问题已经被充分讨论过了。

I think it's been well well litigated.

我认为这个板块今年下跌了30%。

I think the sector's down 30 this year.

市场上已经为此耗费了大量笔墨，探讨生成式人工智能在未来几年带来的不确定性如何被市场逐步消化。

A lot of ink spilled on kind of what's going on as the market absorbs again some of this uncertainty that is arising from generative AI in the future years.

我认为，我们现在所处的位置是，这个领域已经经历了大幅回调。

Where I think we're at now, again, we've had a huge pullback in the space.

我认为，随着财报季的结束，进入行业会议和市场对话阶段，我们现在正逐渐转向一个关注分化点的阶段。

Think I we're starting to move to a point now as you kind of get through earnings season, you get into conferences and that type of dialogue in the market, and it's about dispersion.

对吧？

Right?

你能找到机会吗？

Can you find opportunities?

因为此前出现了一次高度相关的抛售，无论盈利状况、估值倍数或起点如何，所有股票几乎同时以相似幅度下跌。

Because you've had kind of a high correlation sell off where everything has kind of come down roughly the same amount at the same time, regardless of earnings, regardless of multiple, of starting point.

而现在，我认为投资者将开始更加审慎地关注这种分化。

And now I think we're at the point now where investors are gonna try to be a little bit more judicial about dispersion.

我认为，从现在开始，这将是我们接下来要看到的故事。

That's my guess is gonna be the story from here.

如果我们三到六个月后再做一次这样的讨论，我们可能会更多地谈论分化，而不是行业驱动的走势。

If we do this again in three to six months, we'll probably be talking a lot more about dispersion than we will be a a sector driven move.

是的。

Yeah.

我认为，实际上在软件领域内部有很多特别突出的地方。

I think I mean, it is I think there's a lot under the hood within software that really stands out.

是的。

Yeah.

如果我们考虑软件板块，你们在卖出软件，而资金已经转向了半导体。

If we think about the software trade, you're selling software and the money has been rotating into semis.

没错。

That's right.

在半导体与软件的对比中，你的对话主要集中在哪个方面，比如你关注的是哪一端

Where are your conversations within that semis over software trade and, like, what end are you

在哪个方面？

in it?

是的。

Yeah.

最后那个问题很难回答。

The the ending question's tough.

我认为投资者现在怎么看呢？他们觉得这个方向听起来挺有道理的。

I think where investors look at it right now is they say, that direction kind of makes sense to me.

但如今，从这里开始，你必须更加深思熟虑、更具策略性地应对。

But now, again, it's all you gotta be a lot more thoughtful and tactical about it from here.

对吧？

Right?

你已经看到这个价差大幅拉开了。

You've had this really big spread open up.

大多数投资者，从这些水平来看，都会想：它还会继续走高吗？

Most investors, you know, from those levels, you're like, is it likely to keep going?

我是不是该预期会回调？

Am I likely to see reversion?

这种利差会维持在当前水平吗？

Is sort of that spread going to stay here?

现在，关键在于其中的个股，以及从中挑选出合适的标的。

Now, again, it's just about the individual stocks within it and trying to pick from there.

因此，我认为投资者回过头来看时会说，好吧，我们能理解这种逻辑，特别是考虑到各个子行业的起始点、发展方向以及修正幅度。

And so I think the direction I think investors will look back and say, okay, we could kind of see how that made sense, particularly given starting places and direction of travel for certain subsectors and magnitudes of revisions.

但同样，从现在开始，这一切都变得更加涉及细致入微的讨论。

But, again, this is all now much more about a nuanced conversation from here.

这场关于人工智能的对话将走向何方？

Where is this AI conversation going?

你觉得目前人们有哪些误解？

Where do you feel like the misconceptions are right now?

你知道，我确实思考过这个问题。

You know, this is a you know, I thought about this question.

这个问题很难回答。

It's a tough one to answer.

在过去几年里，自从这一轮生成式AI兴起以来，我对它的思考主要集中在几件事上：首先，这是一段长达十年甚至更久的旅程。

And I think the way I have thought about generative AI over the last several years since this cycle has taken off has been a few things, which is one, you know, this is a decade long journey, if not longer.

我发现投资者的情绪总是来回摇摆，一会儿冲向一个极端，一会儿又转向另一个极端。

I find the pendulum swings back and forth where investors are, you know, run to one extreme and then do another.

坦率地说，现在要坚定地持有某种观点或真理非常困难，因为事物变化得太快了。

And it's very, you know, candidly hard to have hold views and truths too closely right now because things are changing quickly.

技术正在迅速发展。

The technology is rapidly evolving.

我认为，如果市场或投资者回头看看，三个月前、六个月前、十二个月前他们相信的是什么？

And I think if the market or investors look back and say, what do we believe three months ago and six months ago and twelve months ago?

这些叙事如今已经大不相同了。

Those narratives are very different today.

因此，在某种程度上，我们几乎必须对变化以及这种变化可能加速的节奏保持更加开放的心态。

So in some way, almost have to be extra open minded about change and the velocity of that change perhaps accelerating.

这显然可能是好事，也可能是坏事，取决于你身处何处。

And that can obviously be a good thing or a bad thing, depending where you sit.

但我始终会比市场更开放一些，看待未来三到六个月、九个月乃至十二个月叙事可能的发展方向。

But I would always just be a little bit more open minded than the market is about where narratives may go over the next three, six, nine, and twelve months.

所以如果你为我们总结一下，目前的交易策略是什么？

So if you wrap it up in a bow for us, what's the trade right now?

是的，迈克。

Yeah, Mike.

我的意思是，我们刚刚讨论了人工智能非常令人兴奋。

I mean, we just talked about AI being very exciting.

我们还谈到了该行业的盈利增长非常强劲。

We talked about earnings growth being very good for the sector.

估值和起点已经变得稍微清晰了一些。

Valuation and starting place has gotten a little bit cleaner.

我今天早上看了下数据。

I looked this morning.

我认为今年年初，纳斯达克指数的表现比罗素指数落后了大约八到九个百分点。

I think the Nasdaq's lagged the Russell by almost eight or eight or nine points to start the year.

这是过去十五年来相对而言最缓慢的开局，与2021年持平。

It is the slowest start on a relative basis we've seen in the last fifteen years, matching 2021.

因此，从现在开始，我站在科技股看涨的一方。

And so put me on the side of the bull camp for for tech from here.

如果你把科技领域进一步细分为一些子行业呢？

What if you were to narrow it down into some subsectors of tech?

哪些领域最突出？

What stands out?

是的，迈克。

Yeah, Mike.

我再次关注大型科技股。

I'm looking at the the large cap tech stocks again.

年初以来，它们又下跌了5%到10%。

We've they're down again anywhere between five to 10% to start the year.

盈利前景一直不错。

The earnings profile has been good.

我们在上个财报季已经承担了这些故事线的大部分前期成本。

We got a lot of the upfront cost associated with these storylines over the last earnings season.

因此，期待未来几个月有更好的执行和收入增长。

And so look for better execution and revenue growth in the months ahead.

太棒了。

Awesome.

你下周打算关注什么？

What are you gonna be looking at next week?

你知道吗，不幸的是，有很多事情要关注。

You know, unfortunately, there's a lot.

对吧？

Right?

我们将收到大量软件和半导体公司的财报。

We're gonna get a bunch of earnings from software and semiconductor companies.

之后我们就进入会议季了。

We start to move into conference season after that.

显然，有很多宏观和地缘政治议题需要关注。

There's obviously a lot of macro and geopolitical storylines to keep track of.

所以，看起来短期内不会放缓。

So, it doesn't feel like it's gonna slow down anytime soon.

完全同意。

Totally agree.

皮特，这真是太棒了。

Pete, this has been awesome.

我们一直非常感谢你的见解。

We always appreciate your insights.

谢谢，迈克。

Thanks, Mike.

好了，本周的《市场》节目就到这里。

And that does it for this week's episode of the markets.

我是迈克·华盛顿。

I'm Mike Washington.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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