The 'Market of Stocks' vs. the 'Stock Market'

这里是市场。

This is the market.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

今天是7月15日，星期三，我正在高盛交易大厅，和布赖恩·加勒特在一起，他是全球银行与市场部跨资产销售团队的股票业务负责人。

And today is Wednesday, July 15, and I'm here on the Goldman Sachs trading floor with Brian Garrett, who heads up equities within the Cross Asset Sales team in Global Banking and Markets.

布赖恩，非常感谢你再次参与。

Brian, thanks so much for joining us.

克里斯，谢谢你又一次邀请我。

Chris, thanks for having me again.

好的。

All right.

你有一阵子没来我们这儿了。

We haven't had you on in a little bit.

最近市场表现相当不错，但与此同时，霍尔木兹海峡局势、通胀、高利率，还有中期选举都悬而未决。

It's been kind of an amazing run here for markets, yet at the same time, we have the Strait Of Hormuz, inflation, high rates, midterm elections loom.

这些因素加在一起，怎么看都不像是市场能创出新高的理由。

All of that does not sound like it makes for a market that should be at an all time high.

你怎么看这一切？

What do you make of it all?

我们即将进入财报季，你最关注哪些方面？

What are you looking at as we walk into earnings season?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

正如你提到的，财报季是我们眼下最关注的重点。

I mean, as you mentioned, earnings season is something that we're very focused on.

这周到目前为止，大型银行中差不多有一半已经公布了财报，而且今天早上，标普金融板块也创下了历史新高。

You know, you got pretty much half of the large banks reported earnings so far this week, and, you know, S and P financial sector is making an all time high this morning.

下周，标普指数中占市值20%的公司将会发布财报。

So next week, 20% of S and P market cap reports earnings.

我觉得我们最关注的是，美股在财报季来临前，市场对它们的预期已经高得离谱了。

You know, I think the one thing that we're focused on is just the very high bar that is being set for US equities into their earnings prints.

首先是基本面方面。

The first one is fundamental.

我们的分析师从下往上看，预计今年的盈利同比增长将达到22%。

I think our analysts from a bottoms up perspective are expecting year on year earnings growth of 22%.

再看期权市场，标普500个股的平均隐含波动幅度大约在5.5%左右，比长期平均水平高出60到70个基点。

And then when you look at the options market, you know, the average S and P stock is implying, like, a five and a half percent implied move, which is also between sixty and seventy bps higher than, you know, call it the long run average.

所以，美股不仅要达到预期的每股收益，还得在股价表现上超越期权市场预估的幅度，才能算真正超出预期。

So not only do equities have a high bar in terms of just, you know, the EPS performance they can deliver, but they also have a really high bar in terms of price performance that they can deliver to kind of outperform what the option market is expecting.

是的。

Yeah.

不过，你跟投资者交流的时候，他们对这种情况是感到紧张，还是觉得没什么大不了？

And but, know, when you think about the investors that you talk to, are they feeling nervous about that or do they feel fine?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你听我说。

I mean, listen.

我觉得当前市场上暗流涌动，波动性其实挺高的——我每次跟你聊都会提到这个，因为我们一直处在低相关性的环境里，指数波动率很低，但个股波动率却高得离谱。

I think that the amount of kind of volatility under the surface in the market right now, and I know I bring that up a lot when you and I talk just because we've been living in a in a in a period of very, very low realized correlation, and then just very, like, which which is a function of low index realized vol and super high single stock realized vol.

是的。

Yeah.

今天早上我们的主经纪商业务团队发了一份报告，说大约75%在四月低点后买入的全球股票，现在都已卖出，准备迎接财报季。

So I think, you know, our our prime brokerage team put out a note this morning that said about 75% of global equities that had been bought off the April lows has been sold heading into earnings.

所以，我觉得这一季唯一让人稍感安心的是，基本面的要求本来就很苛刻。

So that's, you know, that's almost the one thing that that feels positive to me going into this season is that we have a high bar fundamentally.

从波动率角度看门槛也很高，但好在仓位结构相当干净。

We have a high bar from from a volatility perspective, but, like, we actually have pretty clean positioning.

虽然投资者因为动量因子和个股波动率居高不下而感到不安，但如果这些股票真能交出好成绩，普通投资组合还是有空间加仓的。

And I think that while investors have become nervous just given, you know, the momentum factor online and just like this very, very high level of single stock realized vol, if these names can perform, there is room to add them in in the average portfolio.

对，而且我们主经纪商业务提到的干净仓位，主要指的是对冲基金的持仓情况，没错。

Yeah, and that clean positioning from our prime brokerage unit, that's talking about hedge fund positioning largely, Correct, yep.

好的。

Okay.

我来跟你聊聊另一个市场主题，就是人工智能。

So let me talk to you about another theme which is in the market of course, which is the AI theme.

我们已经开始看到AI基础设施公司和超大规模云服务商进入信贷市场，为这些项目融资。

And we've started to see the AI infrastructure guys and the hyperscalers dip into the credit markets now to fund some of these projects.

这对市场有影响吗？

Is that having an impact on markets at all?

你怎么看？

What do you see?

是的。

Yeah.

我觉得这其实挺有意思的。

You know, I think it's it's really interesting.

云服务商推进AI建设，需要投入巨额资金。

The AI build out from the hyperscalers community is gonna require a massive amount of capital.

我们研究团队估计，从2025年到2030年，这些公司需要筹集五万五千亿到六万亿美元的资金。

I think our research team said between 2025 and 2030, they need to raise somewhere between 5 and a half or $6,000,000,000,000.

总得有人来提供这笔资金吧。

Someone's gotta finance that.

你想想，这些公司过去一直是大规模回购股票的主力，现金流充沛、资产轻盈，现在却要转型成重资产模式。

And, you know, you're talking about companies that forever had been large, buyback candidates buying back their own stock, you know, massive free cash flow asset light businesses that are that are kind of transitioning into asset heavy businesses.

他们之前已经稍微动用了股权市场，向市场增发了一些股票。

You know, they've tapped the equity markets a bit, kind of offering stock into into the market.

最近几周，我们看到他们开始转向信贷市场，想从这里筹到资金。

The last couple of weeks, we've seen them kind of come into the credit market to try and get funding from that from that avenue of of the markets.

上个星期一，周初就有一笔规模相当大的交易出现了。

So last Monday, there was some a fairly large deal that came early on in the week.

原本市场预期债券发行的条件会比较紧，但实际发行后，利差反而开始扩大了。

And, you know, I think what was coming at pretty tight concessions to where bonds were trading in the market heading into the deal has just started to widen.

投资者手头确实有闲钱，也都在追逐收益，但还是有两个障碍挡在前面。

You know, I think investors, while they have dry powder, and while they are, you know, all in yield buyers of fixed income, there's two things that are that are standing in their way.

一是已经发行的规模已经够大了，接下来还要发行的规模也一样惊人。

One is just the sheer size at which has already been issued, and, the sheer size at which is set to be issued.

二是集中度的问题。

And then number two is concentration.

到目前为止，投资级市场发行的债券，大部分都是科技公司债。

A of the paper that has come to the market so far in the IG market has been technology bonds.

如果你是基金经理，想在固定收益市场里做多元化配置，科技债不可能买太多。

And if you're a if you're a portfolio manager who's trying to take a diverse view of kind of the fixed income market, there's only so much tech you can own.

所以我觉得这两点正在慢慢影响整个市场。

And so I think those two things are are kind of filtering their way through the market.

高盛有个超大规模云服务商的债券篮子，上周利差扩大了22个基点，听起来不多，但其实已经挺明显了。

Goldman has a hyperscalers bond basket that widened by 22 basis points last week, which doesn't sound like a lot, but it actually is.

是的。

Yeah.

另外我想提的一点是，看看不同的波动率指标或者CDS数据，就能感受到市场情绪的紧张程度，现在超大规模云服务商和AI相关公司的CDS利差，跟期权偏度之间的差距实在太大了。

And then the only other thing that I would that I would point to is you can you can kinda discern levels of market anxiety when you look at different VOL metrics or CDS metrics, and it's it's a it's a big disparity between the CDS market in hyperscaler and kind of like the AI names and put skew.

所以看跌偏度本质上是股票的保护机制，而CDS显然是信用保护。

So put skew is kind of like equity protection, and then CDS is obviously credit protection.

如果你把这两者画在一张图上对比，它们的走势差异简直大得离谱。

If you chart the two of those against each other, I mean, they couldn't be in in kind of wider distributions.

这真有意思。

Oh, that's fascinating.

你可别想绕开波动率这个话题。

I'm not gonna let you off the hook on volatility.

咱们还是回头聊聊波动率吧。

Let's go back to vol.

VIX目前还不算太糟。

VIX sitting actually not too terrible yet.

但你看看韩国市场，每天的波动动不动就超过5%，甚至更多。

But then you see places like Korea where everything trades plus or minus 5% every day or more.

从波动率市场来看，你觉得当前市场的整体状况怎么样？

What is the vol market telling you about the health of the markets?

这得看你怎么看了。

I mean, it really depends on where you look.

这可能是第一次，我们再次看到美国股指之间的实际相关性明显下降。

This is one of the first times where there's just again, we spoke about kind of the decreased amount of realized correlation in just US indices.

实际上，全球范围内的相关性也更加低迷。

Like, there is an even larger kind of muted correlation kind of globally.

标普500的实际波动率并不能反映全部情况。

Like, the S and P realized volatility is not telling you the whole story.

COSPI是韩国主要的股票指数。

So, COSPI is the large kind of equity index in Korea.

目前COSPI的隐含波动率甚至比2008年全球金融危机时还高。

COSPI implied vol right now is higher than it was during the global financial crisis.

这太惊人了。

That's crazy.

所以，其实背后有好多不同的原因。

So, you know, I just there's there's many different reasons for this.

你知道，COSP现在成了一个权重高度集中在一两只股票上的指数，而这几只股票恰好都是市值超大的龙头股。

You know, COSP has become an index that is extremely has a lot of weighting towards just one or two stocks, and those stocks happen to be 100 ball names.

另外，我觉得还有一个因素，就是最近市场上ETF发行量激增，而且这些ETF的结构设计也很特别。

And then, you know, just I think the other the other aspect is the amount of ETF issuance that has started to hit the market and the way that these ETF wrappers are being constructed.

现在每五个ETF里，就有一个含有杠杆或反向操作的机制。

So, you know, I think one in five ETFs right now have some component of leverage or inverse kind of methodology.

这可是整个ETF市场的整体情况。

That's the total universe.

今年到目前为止，每三个新发行的ETF里，就有一个带有这种机制。

Year to date, one in three ETFs that have been issued have had some component of that.

所以这种趋势不仅在扩大，而且越来越激进。

So it's getting bigger and it's getting more aggressive.

结果就是，如果这些ETF吸引到足够多的资金，就会增加市场的短期伽马风险，这又进一步推高了个股波动率，同时压低了指数的整体波动率。

And, you know, what this ends up doing is if these ETFs can garner enough assets, it increases kind of like the short gamma in the market, which, again, it's a it's it contributes to the higher level of single stack vol, and it can contribute to a muted, index vol.

对。

Yeah.

挺有意思的是，当你投资杠杆ETF时，一旦底层资产下跌，它们就得被迫卖出更多。

It's interesting because when you get into a levered ETF, I guess, when that when the underlying goes down, they're forced to sell even more.

是这样吗？

Is that what happens?

反过来也是一样。

And and and the the opposite is true.

当底层资产上涨时，它们就得被迫买入更多。

When the underlying is up, they're forced to buy more.

我觉得，这些ETF的存在，还有那一拨日内交易者，其实不是主要问题。

You know, I think the existence of these ETFs and and kind of this cohort of of intraday traders, that's less of the issue.

真正关键的是规模，以及它们所跟踪的股票或行业本身的流动性有多深。

It's more the size and and the underlying liquidity within within the equity or whatever the sector that they're tracking.

你想啊，如果一个ETF的资产管理规模只有一百万美元，它在再平衡时产生的交易量根本算不了什么；但要是规模达到两千亿美元，那完全是另一回事了。

Because, you know, if you think about it, if you have an ETF that has $1,000,000 of AUM, they're not really going to create a large volume trading footprint on their rebalance, but, you know, if you have something that's $20,000,000,000, it's a completely different story.

说得太对了。

Such a good point.

好吧。

Alright.

咱们总结一下。

Let's put a bow on it.

有什么交易机会？

What's the trade?

当然。

Sure.

我其实有两个交易思路。

So I actually have two trades.

我喜欢两个交易机会。

I love two trades.

作为

As a

做波动率的，手里总得备着一两个方案。

vol guy, you always have to have a couple in your back pocket.

第一个策略是把个股的领口期权和多头仓位叠加起来。

The first of which is kind of like overlaying single stock collars against long positions.

现在市场上散户买看涨期权的量太大了，杠杆用得凶，股价上行的波动远超下行，这就导致看涨期权的需求被推高了——在标普500里大约10%的股票，纳斯达克里15%的股票，看涨期权的隐含波动率反而比看跌期权还高。

The amount of retail call option buying in the market, the amount of leverage, the amount of volatility that stocks have exhibited to the upside relative to the downside has just created this underlying bid for call options, which in about 10% of S and P names and 15% of Nasdaq names actually are trading higher than the implied vol of a put option.

在我二十年的职业生涯里，这种情形真的很少见。

So kind of in my twenty year career, these are these are the types of things that don't normally happen.

如果你持有一只股票，可以买一个价外10%的看跌期权，相当于给持仓买个保险，再用价外15%到20%的看涨期权来贴补成本；具体用多高的行权价，得看波动率和交易周期，有时候甚至能用更高行权价的看涨期权来完全覆盖成本。

And so if you're long in an equity position, you can buy a 10% out of the money put, which is like an insurance contract on your stock, and you can fund it with, you know, either a 15% to 20% out of the money call, Depending on kind of the volatility and depending on the duration of the trade, you can actually get, you know, strikes that are even much higher than that.

我觉得这招特别聪明，能顺势利用期权市场的定价，保护那些已经创出新高的股票持仓。

And I just think that it's a really prudent way to take what the option market is giving you and protect some of your stocks when they're trading at all time highs.

明白了。

Alright.

这个策略我喜欢。

I love that trade.

第二个策略是什么？

What's the second trade?

第二个策略就是做多标普500指数的下行风险，带点杠杆。

The second trade is just a levered expression to S and P downside.

你知道，我并不是特别看空。

You know, it's not that I'm extremely bearish.

只是说市场给了你这个机会，而且看起来挺划算的。

It's just more so this is something the market is giving you and it's pretty attractive.

就像我们之前聊到的，我觉得2026年很好地体现了个股市场和整体股市之间的区别。

As we discussed earlier, I think 2026 has been a kind of poster child for the difference between a market of stocks and the stock market.

你知道，股市的已实现波动率处于极低水平，而个股市场的波动率却非常高，所以我认为这使得指数层面的保护成本降到了一个非常低的点，入场门槛真的很低。我们交易台正在关注的一种策略，有人叫它‘一次触碰’，也有人叫它二元期权、数字期权，随便怎么叫都行。

You know, the stock market is experiencing extremely low levels of realized vol, the market of stocks, singles, is experiencing extremely high, and so I think that has kind of taken the cost of protection at the index level to a really low point, really low entry you know, one of the things that we're looking at on the desk is some people call them one touches, some people call them binaries, digitals, whatever.

这是一种看跌期权，只要指数在期权存续期内的任何时刻触及或跌破某个特定点位，它就会支付固定的收益。

It's it's a put option that will pay set level of payout if the index reaches or breaches that point at any time during the life of

这笔交易。

the trade.

所以从现在到八月底，如果标普500指数在任何时候下跌7%，你就能获得五倍的杠杆收益。

So between now and the end of August, if the S and P drops by 7% at any time, you can make five x leverage.

花一美元，赚五美元。

So, you know, pay a dollar to make five.

如果标普指数在现在到八月到期前下跌10%，你就能获得十倍杠杆收益。

If the S and P drops 10% between now and August expiry, you can make 10x leverage.

花一美元，赚十美元。

Pay a dollar to make 10.

这太棒了。

I love it.

布莱恩·加勒特并不是特别看空，但他会给你两个交易策略，能在市场下跌时提供保护，充分利用期权市场的机会。

Brian Garrett, he's not super bearish, but he's gonna give you two trades that will give you protection if the market goes down, taking advantage of the options market.

好吧，进入七月剩下的时间，你现在最关注什么？

Alright, what are you watching most carefully now as we go into the rest of July?

说实话，我觉得通胀数据又回到了焦点位置，美联储有了新主席，月底还有FOMC会议，就业数据看起来已经稳住了。

Listen, know, I think inflation data is back on the forefront, you've got a new head of the Federal Reserve, FOMC meets at the end of the month, it feels as though the job data has has found solid footing.

现在更关键的是通胀，以及美国经济将如何应对它。

It's really more so about inflation and kind of how the The US economy is gonna deal with it.

是的

Yeah.

有道理

Makes sense.

月底还会公布另一份通胀数据，就是PCE。

And we get another inflation print at the end of the month with PCE.

没错

Yep.

Brian，非常感谢你抽出时间跟我们交流。

Brian, thanks so much for taking the time with us.

谢谢，Chris。

Thanks, Chris.

好了，这期《市场》节目就到这里。

That does it for this week's episode of the markets.

我是Chris Hussey。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

本文所表达的观点和看法截至发布日期，可能随时变更，且不一定反映高盛公司或其关联机构的官方立场。

The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication subject to change without notice and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates.

本材料仅供信息参考，不构成任何投资建议，不代表高盛任何实体推荐采取任何特定行动，也不构成购买或出售任何证券或金融产品的要约或邀请。

The material provided is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.

本材料可能包含前瞻性陈述。

This material may contain forward looking statements.

过往表现不代表未来结果。

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

高盛及其关联机构不对本材料中陈述或信息的准确性或完整性作任何明示或暗示的保证，并对任何基于此类信息所作的决策不承担任何责任。

Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warrant expressed or implied as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.

文中提及的任何第三方机构名称均为其所属公司的财产，仅用于信息说明和识别目的，不意味着该公司与高盛之间存在任何所有权或授权关系。

Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only, and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

为方便起见，此处提供文字稿，但可能与原始视频或音频内容存在差异。

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

未经高盛明确书面同意，任何人不得复制、分发、发布、全文或部分重现本材料，或向他人披露。

This material should not be copied, distributed, published, reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

版权所有 2026 年，高盛。

Copyright 2026, Goldman Sachs.

保留所有权利。

All rights reserved.