Why Investors Are Reducing AI Exposure

这里是《市场》节目。

This is The Markets.

我是克里斯·哈西，今天是10月22日，星期四。我在高盛伦敦交易大厅，邀请到了里奇·普里沃罗斯基，他是FICC和股票部门的欧洲股票交易主管。

I'm Chris Hussey, and today is Thursday, October 22, and I'm joined from the Goldman Sachs trading floor in London by Rich Privorotsky, who is head of European Equities Trading within FICC and Equities.

普里沃，非常感谢你的加入。

Privor, thanks so much for joining us.

谢谢邀请，奥西。

Thanks for having me, Aussie.

我们直接进入正题吧，因为我一直在读你写的内容，你提出了一个很好的观点：今年夏天早些时候，市场被迫追逐的痛苦交易是做多AI，做空其他所有资产。

Let's jump into it because, you know, I've been reading everything you've been writing about, and you made a great point, which was that earlier this summer, the pain trade the trade that people were having to chase was long AI short everything else.

这已经变成了一种大热交易。

It had become a little bit of a big one big trade.

现在，随着我们进入第三季度财报季，这种交易似乎正在解除。

Now that seems to be unwinding as we go into third quarter earnings season.

发生了什么？

What's going on?

你觉得接下来会怎么发展？

How do you see it playing out from here?

市场的集中度一直非常高，我得说，过去几周对于这些一致性的交易来说特别痛苦。

There's been an immense amount of concentration in the equity market, and I gotta say that the past few weeks have been particularly painful for those types of consensual trades.

大家都挤在人工智能、半导体、超大容量数据中心这些板块里。

People were very concentrated within AI, within semis, within hyperscalers.

我觉得现在市场大概面临三个不同的问题。

And I would say that there are probably three different issues the market's kind of grappling with right now.

第一个显然是资金成本的溢出效应。

One is, obviously we've had a spillover in terms of the cost of capital.

我觉得这几乎处处可见，不管是CCC级利差、欧洲的主权债利差，还是那些高杠杆的AI交易部分，尤其是那些新型云服务商，都非常明显。

And I think we're seeing that pretty much everywhere, whether it's triple c spreads, sovereign spreads in Europe, but also at the very pointy end within some of these more levered parts of the AI trade and and the neo clouds really stand out.

所以这就变成了一个供应问题。

And so that's become a question of supply.

也就是说，这些公司会不会在融资方面遇到困难，来支撑他们所有这些AI支出？

Know, will will those corporates have struggle to find financing to deliver all this AI spend?

第二点是关于供应方面的，我们一直对能否真正供电并交付千兆瓦电力存有疑问，明年的差距大概在二十到四五十千兆瓦之间。

The second point being on supply that we've had questions about the ability to actually energize and deliver gigawatts and the spread is kind of 20 at forty fifty gigawatts for next year.

所以，如果你无法获得电力来真正启动数据中心，那你还能不能消耗掉你已经预先订购的芯片呢？

So if you can't get the power to actually energize a data center, will you actually be able to consume the chips you've already forward ordered?

所以这些都是市场在担忧的问题，所有这一切叠加起来，人们就处于一种去风险的心态中，而这种心态的本质就是通过降低AI交易和AI资本支出交易的预期增长来实现的。

So those are concerns that are floating around the market and all of that is just compounded to a point where people have been in a in a derisking mentality, and and and the nature of that has been taking growth expectations down via the AI trade and AI CapEx trade.

而另一方面，随着增长预期下降，债券一直在上涨，这谁都没预料到。

And on the flip side of that, bonds have been rallying as growth expectations come down, and that that was on no one's bingo card.

好的。

Okay.

这里有很多内容需要消化。

A lot to unpack there.

不过，我们还是把焦点放在近期和当下，也就是第三季度的财报季。

Let's focus, though, on the immediate future and actually the present, which is the third quarter earnings season.

我们现在已经处于这个财报季的中期了。

We're in the middle of it already.

已经有几家大型科技巨头发布了财报，但后面还有很多。

We've had some of the big mega cap tech stocks report, but we got a lot more to go.

你最关注第三季度财报中的哪些方面呢？

What are you watching for most carefully out of the third quarter earnings

财报季？

season?

我觉得我们要进入超大规模数据中心企业财报的关键阶段了。最重要的是，不仅要看资本支出是否维持在高位——市场对明年的预期大约是一万一美元——更关键的是云业务能否持续增长并实现商业化。

I think we're gonna head into the meat of the hyperscaler numbers, and I think it's gonna be really important to see not only that the CapEx is sustaining at the high levels and the market is kind of at 1,100,000,000,000 for for next year, but but most importantly, see, you know, continued cloud growth and and and monetization.

所以仅仅说你在大量投入是不够的，还必须证明那些积压的订单正在转化为有意义的收入。

So it's it's not enough just to say that, you know, you're spending a lot of money, but you also need to demonstrate that that that that backlog is converting into revenues in a meaningful capacity.

我认为这对市场来说真的至关重要。

And so I think that's gonna be really critical for the market.

他们实现自由现金流盈亏平衡的速度，相对于市场预期，可能对信贷市场产生重大影响，而信贷市场会变得非常敏感。

I think the nature of how quickly their bridge to free cash flow breakeven occurs relative to market expectations could have a big implication on the credit markets, which would become acutely sensitive.

对我来说，确实有很多值得关注的点，但从经济整体来看，我认为市场的焦点会集中在超大规模数据中心企业身上，尤其是交付质量，而不只是支出本身。

And so I really, for me, you know, there's a lot to look for, I would say, from the rest of the economy, but I think that the market's focus is really gonna be on hyperscalers and then really the quality of the delivery, not not just the spend.

对这些公司来说，要达到这个标准可不容易。

It's a heck of a bar to have to scale for these companies.

他们得在继续加大资本支出的同时，还要拿出回报来。

They have to keep pushing CapEx at the same time as they show you returns on that CapEx.

这样的局面可不轻松，对吧？

It's not an easy setup, is it?

确实不轻松。

No, it's not.

不过你看，背景是这样的：现货市场上算力价格每天都在创新高。

But look, I mean, the backdrop is one such that you see compute prices literally making you highs every day in the spot market.

他们卖的东西需求真是供不应求。

There is insatiable demand for what they have for sale.

所以我觉得，从乐观一点的角度看，他们应该有不少好消息可以说。

And so I would say with a bit of a glass half full view, they should have a pretty good story to tell.

好的，Rich。

Okay Rich.

其实有一阵子没请你上节目了。

It's been a minute actually, since we've had you on the call.

你是一月份才加入我们的。

You just joined us way back in January.

但这一年里，你一直是那种信奉“石油怎么样，其他就怎么样”的人。

But throughout the year, you've been one of the guys with the mantra as goes oil, so goes everything else.

这个说法现在还成立吗？

Is that still the mantra?

我觉得能源领域的问题非常棘手。

I think we've had a immensely problematic backdrop in energy.

而且我认为市场……

And, you know, I think the market...

股市，我觉得，一直在尽力忽视和回避能源价格的上涨。

The equity market, think, done its best to really ignore and compartmentalize, the the rise in energy.

但是那……

But that...

这样说不公平，因为标普指数确实把能源涨价的影响消化得很好，但普通股票平均跌幅其实已经超过10%。

That's not really fair because the S and P has done a great job compartmentalizing, but the median equity has in fact gone down well in excess of 10%.

而这已经对利率产生了影响。

And so that has had an impact on rates.

对金融状况指数也有影响。

It has an impact on FCI.

事实上，金融状况指数已经大幅收紧，这在某种程度上也促使美联储采取更多行动，我们已经重新调整了整个加息周期的预期。

In fact, we've had a massive FCI tightening, and that is in a sense also pushed the Fed to do more, and we've repriced an entire hiking cycle.

所以我认为能源在其中起了很大作用。

So I think energy has been a big part of that.

我认为，由于能源问题，市场上仍然存在很多风险溢价，而且很明显，接下来几周这些事态如何发展，对更广泛的市场风险来说将非常关键。

I think we still have a lot of risk premium because of energy, and and obviously now, the next couple of weeks of how these things are gonna play out is is gonna be really critical for broader risk.

我的乐观看法是，未来几周内会找到某种解决方案，但我不得不承认，我原本以为一两个月前就该有所进展了，看来我有点判断失误。

And I think my my optimistic view is that we'll get some sort of resolution in the next few weeks, but but I I have to admit I've been kind of a little bit wrong thinking that would have happened a month or two ago.

我想我们都是一样的。

I think we all have.

你说的FCI，当然是指金融状况指数，它是衡量经济所有推动力是收紧还是放松的一个指标。

And by FCI, of course, you're referring to the financial conditions index, which is kind of a measure of tightening or loosening of the economy of all the economic impulses.

它不仅仅关乎利率。

It's not just about rates.

有时候可能是油价。

Sometimes it could be oil.

有时候也可能是股市，你看看FCI就知道了。

Sometimes it could be stocks as well when you're looking at an FCI.

好。

Alright.

油价方面说得对。

Good point on the oil side.

而且，说到油价，你还提到过年初的一个观点，就是在GDP增长强劲且依然非常强劲的世界里，我想做多名义资产。

Also tied to that oil trade, though, was a comment you made back at the beginning of the year, which is I want to be long nominal assets in an expanding world where GDP growth is strong, and GDP growth is looking still very strong.

而且通胀很高。

And inflation is high.

我就是想做多这类资产，也就是大宗商品。

I just want to be long those types of thing, which is a lot of commodities.

那你今天怎么看这种名义资产交易？

Where do you see that nominal asset trade today?

还值得参与吗？

Is it still a place to be?

我觉得要回答这个问题，我得先回答那个万亿级的问题，就是AI支出会怎样，以及相对于市场预期，它有多可持续。

I think in order to answer that question, I have to kind of answer the trillion dollar question, which is, you know, what's gonna happen with AI spending and how sustainable is it relative to market expectations?

因为现实是，当我们重新定价AI时，其他一切也都被重新定价了，包括大宗商品，包括名义资产。

Because the reality is that as we reprice that, we've repriced everything including commodities, including nominal assets.

我的直觉是，我们有点把洗澡水和孩子一起倒掉了，而且确实开始担心各种维度的问题。

My gut is that we've kind of thrown the baby out with the bathwater and and we've certainly begun to worry about every dimensionality.

为了说明这一点，这周我遇到一些投资者，他们说：“我担心算力交付不了，这让我很害怕。”

And to kind of put that in context, met investors this week who said, I'm worried about the inability to deliver compute and that scares me.

然后我又遇到另一批投资者，他们说：“我担心算力会过度交付，这也让我很害怕。”

And then I met another set of investors that said, I'm worried we're gonna over deliver compute and that scares me.

而且不知怎么的，我们遇到了两种相互排斥的结果，它们都是市场担忧的集中体现。

And it's somehow we've had two mutually exclusive outcomes that are both the summation of the market's worries.

所以我认为，从大方向来看，名义资产是你想要待的地方，除非我们陷入一个反通胀的衰退。

So I think nominal assets are big picture where you wanna be unless we go into a disinflationary bust.

也就是资本支出放缓，所有人都不得不收缩，出现一个真正的信贷周期。

Which is CapEx slows, everyone has to retrench, we have a proper credit cycle.

三个月前我会说这种风险很低，但现在，风险肯定高多了。

And I would have said, you know, three months ago, the risk of that was low, and now, certainly, it's a lot higher.

但我的直觉是，中长期来看，那里仍然是你要待的地方，不过现在也许在投资组合中多一点杠铃策略会更明智。

But my gut is that's still where you wanna be over the medium and long term, but I think now perhaps a bit more of a barbell in the portfolio would be a little more sensible.

听起来你的意思是，以前可能是石油一动，其他都跟着动。

Sounds like what you are saying is whereas before it may have been as goes oil, so goes everything else.

现在变成了AI一动，其他都跟着动。

It's now as goes AI, so goes everything else.

对吗？

Is that right?

我觉得虽然这么说可能过于简化了，但大致就是这么回事。

I think at the risk of being overly reductionist, that's probably about right.

Rich，谢谢你这么简化地总结。

Rich, thanks for being overly reductionist.

我就是那个喜欢简化的人，所以很高兴你能做到这一点。

I am Mr Overly reductionist, so I love that you were able to go there.

当然，这其中很大一部分会涉及一个大的信贷周期。

Part of this, of course, would be a big credit cycle.

而三个月前，你并不担心信贷周期。

And that, you know, three months ago, you weren't worried about a credit cycle.

现在你有点担心了。

Now you are a little bit more.

给我们讲讲这是怎么回事吧。

Talk to us about that.

你看到信贷方面出现裂痕了吗？

Are you seeing credit cracks?

你说的是欧洲主权债券的问题，还是更多指我们看到的企业层面的信贷问题呢？

Are you referring to the issues that are going on with sovereign bonds in Europe, or are you referring more to the credit issues that we see at the corporate side?

我的整个职业生涯都是在可以形容为储蓄过剩的环境中度过。

I've spent my entire career in what you could probably describe as a savings glut.

我们系统里的钱多到不知道该怎么花。

You know, we we had more money in the system than we knew what to do with.

而实际上，在过去一年里，我们预计在人工智能资本支出上会超过一万亿美元，而且全球大多数政府都在出现财政赤字。

And and and really, in the last year where, you know, we're projecting to spend, you know, in excess of a trillion dollars in AI CapEx, most governments around the world are running fiscal deficits.

我们现在处于一个支出过剩的时期。

We are in a spending glut.

这真的是一个巨大的结构性变化，影响着事物的运作方式和资本成本。

And this is a really big seismic change in terms of the way things work and what the cost of capital becomes.

所以我认为这自然会挤出那些边缘的借款人，那些不是最高质量的。

And so I think that is naturally pushing out borrowers who are at the fringe, who are not the highest of quality.

我想你们已经在三C级别的信用利差中看到了这一点，公允地说，这有点特殊，鉴于那里发生的情况的构成，但它们确实变动很大，而且这已经稍微溢出到了信贷的更广泛部分。

I think you've seen it in triple c spreads, which is, in fairness, a bit idiosyncratic given the composition of what's occurred there, but but they have moved a lot, and that's spilled over a little bit into broader parts of credit.

然后，显然还有法国的国债问题，作为一个在这种环境下财政赤字很大的国家，它们也会被挤出市场。

And then, obviously, you know, your French sovereign concerns, which, you know, as as as a sovereign with a large, you know, fiscal deficit in this environment, they all get pushed out.

所以我觉得所有这些因素都在产生影响，而且只要能源价格高企，我们就会同时回到石油交易。

So I think all these things are are are kinda having an impact and we go back to the oil trade simultaneously as long as energy prices are high.

这基本上降低了风险偏好，我认为这对这类资产来说是一个买方市场。

It just kind of lowers the risk appetite and and, you know, I think it is kind of a buyer's market for those types of assets.

从储蓄过剩到支出过剩，这个总结太精辟了。

What a great way to crystallize it from a savings glut to a spending glut.

确实如此。

It's so true.

那个储蓄过剩也只是五年前的事。

And that savings glut was only five years ago.

真没想到变化这么大。

It's amazing how we've shifted.

好的。

Alright.

事情真不少。

A lot going on.

你刚刚跟我们说了。

You've you've just told us.

我们来做个总结。

Let's put a bow on it.

交易是什么？

What's the trade?

有点乱，说实话信心不是特别高，但我觉得有些电气化的领域看起来确实很有意思。

It's a bit messy, and I would say conviction is not super high, but I think that there are pockets of electrification that we think look really interesting.

他们削减了很多产能，而且我认为到2027年仍然有很清晰的可见度，能提供很大的安全边际。

They've derated a ton, and I still think there's plenty of visibility in a '27 that gives you a big margin of safety.

我觉得有很多航空航天资产已经降价了，尤其是在民用方面，同样对我们来说非常有吸引力。

I think there's lots of aerospace assets that have come off that that particularly in the civil side, again, equally incredibly attractive to us.

然后甚至还有零部件运输，说实话。

And then even parts transport quite frankly.

如果你真的能得到任何能源方面的解决方案，那个交易会有很大的上涨空间，因为净值已经很低了，而且过去几周我们看到了大量抛售。

If you if you do get any kind of energy resolution, there's a lot of, I would say, convexity in that trade given how low nets have become, how much selling we have seen in the past few weeks.

给个背景，那是我们主要账户中最大的一次科技股抛售，我们……

I mean, for context, it was the biggest selling of tech we...

我们上周前所未见的。

We've ever seen in our prime book last week.

所以我觉得有很多理由让人担心，我也不想太轻描淡写，但我现在还是尽量保持谨慎乐观的态度。

So I I I think there are plenty of reasons to worry, and and I don't wanna be too dismissive, but I kind of, like, try to be cautiously optimistic at this point.

好的，Rich。

Okay, Rich.

我们把时间跳到下周。

Let's fast forward to next week.

接下来一周，你会关注哪些可能影响市场的因素？

What are you watching for that's gonna impact the markets in the week ahead?

我觉得关键就在数据里。

I think it's gonna be out in the numbers.

就像我们刚才说的，超大规模数据中心的数据。

Hyperscaler numbers as we discussed.

我觉得我们得看看变现情况。

I think, you know, let's see the monetization.

再看看资本支出数据。

Let's see the CapEx figures.

我认为这对市场走势非常关键。

I think this is gonna be really critical for the tape.

而且我觉得这个进展会决定人们对信贷的看法，对潜在需求的看法，还有我们从各个实验室和供应商那里得到的其他数据点。

And I think, you know, how that progresses will shape how people feel about the credit, how people feel about the underlying demand and and what else we get, you know, in terms of data points coming from from all the labs and and all the providers.

Rich，你总是带来海量信息。

Rich, always a wealth of information.

非常感谢你今天来参加我们的节目。

Thanks so much for joining us today.

谢谢邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

本周的《市场》节目就到这里结束了。

That does it for this week's episode of The Markets.

我是克里斯·赫西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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