哪些股市将表现更胜一筹？

这是市场情况。

This is the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

今天是1月14日，星期三。

And today is Wednesday, January 14.

和我在一起的是高盛国际公司的联合首席执行官库纳尔·沙阿。

And with me is Kunal Shah, co CEO of Goldman Sachs International.

他正在从伦敦交易大厅实时连线加入我们。

And he's coming to us live from the trading floor in London.

库纳尔，非常感谢你加入我们。

Kunal, thanks so much for joining us.

当然，克里斯。

Of course, Chris.

很高兴能来到这里。

Pleasure to be here.

好的，库纳尔，我们先从美国说起。

Okay, Kunal, let's start with The U.

因为美国表现不错，但实际上在2025年，它并没有超越世界上大多数国家。

Because it did well, but it actually didn't outperform most of the countries in the world in 2025.

美国在2026年能实现超越吗？

Can The US outperform in '26?

目前仍存在的估值溢价是否合理？

Is that valuation premium that's still there warranted?

你看，

Look.

今年年初，市场对美国资产充满热情，我们自己也持乐观态度。

A lot of enthusiasm for US assets as you enter this year that we ourselves came in constructive.

如果我们看一下高盛对美国GDP的研究预测，远高于共识水平，达到2.8%。

If you look at a house research call for US GDP, quite significantly above consensus at 2.8%.

但在市场的前两周，你已经能感受到这种氛围了。

But you can feel it in these first two weeks in markets.

人们正在跟上这种热情。

People are catching up to that enthusiasm.

我认为那里有很多顺风因素在起作用。

And I think there are quite a lot of tailwinds there at play.

对吧？

Right?

你知道，一方面，你刚刚迎来了宽松的金融环境。

You know, on one hand, you just got easy financial conditions.

美联储已经降息，其连锁影响也刚刚显现。

You've got the fed cuts that were delivered and just a knock on impact of that.

你还有人工智能的故事，大量资本支出中的信贷创造，正在为美国的这一周期提供动力。

You've got the AI story, a lot of credit creation in CapEx, which is just fueling that cycle in The US.

而且，这正好发生在关税压力减弱、财政刺激强劲的时期，你还将看到退税继续推动这一趋势。

And this is, you know, also coming at a time when you're getting the tariff drag fading, fiscal impulse is strong, and you're going to see that continue with tax refunds.

此外，还有放松监管，我们在自己的银行业也能看到这一点，但这只是给这把火添了把柴，我认为这正是带来美国持续乐观情绪的原因。

And look, and then there's deregulation, which we ourselves see in our own banking industry, but it just throws some fuel on that fire, which I think is what is bringing continued positivity when it comes to The US.

当然，当你觉得某些情况已经逐渐被消化并达成更多共识时，仍需保持一定的谨慎。

Of course, you have to keep some measure here when you feel things are becoming, well digested and more consensual.

如果我们看看我们自己的主要数据，你会发现杠杆率已经达到了高位。

If we look at our own prime data, look, you're starting to hit high levels of gross leverage.

最近的资金流动使五年期高点再度刷新。

Five year highs now with recent flows.

市场上存在大量做空VIX的头寸，我们追踪的风险偏好指标也正接近今年的高点。

Quite a lot of short VIX positioning out there, risk appetite indicators that we track and are approaching highs for the year.

因此，我认为你仍需保持一定程度的谨慎，因为这些观点如今已不再被视为对美国的非主流看法。

So I think you do need to keep some degree of caution just given these are no longer, I'd say, as out of consensus views on The US.

但从今年的整体结构来看，我们仍将从多头方向进行交易。

But structurally, when we look across course of this year, we're still going to be trading from the long side.

我认为这还得到了技术面的支撑。

I think it's also just backed up by technicals.

美国流动性和货币供应量的增长规模巨大，甚至超过了名义GDP，这表明我们认为金融资产将获得强劲的顺风支持。

Just the sheer amount of liquidity and money supply growth in The US, which is outpacing even nominal GDP, I think just means financial assets we think are just going to have some good tailwinds behind them.

当然，这些技术面和需求的另一面是供给。

Of course, the flip side of those technicals and demand is supply.

到目前为止，信贷市场已经出现了大量供给。

And there's been a lot of supply so far in credit markets.

这些供给已经被很好地消化了，未来更多人将进入股票市场，尤其是考虑到今年晚些时候一些大型科技公司IPO的可能性。

It has been well digested and more people will come also in the equity markets, particularly when you think later this year and the scope for some of these mega cap IPOs.

但我认为这些消化不良的问题留到以后再说，我仍然认为宏观趋势和技术面都将提供支持。

But I think those indigestion issues for later, I still think it's a steady current with the macro and the technicals are going to be supportive.

现在谈谈你提到的美国估值溢价问题。

Now on the point you make around the valuation premium for The US.

好的。

Okay.

我认为，美国的这种特殊性在一定程度上已经减弱了。

Look, I would say some of this exceptionalism in The US, it's diminished.

但还没有结束。

It's not finished.

好的。

Okay.

如果你看一下股票市场，美国的市盈率高于世界其他地区。

If you look at the equity market, multiples are higher than the rest of the world.

我们知道，这其中一部分是因为科技和高增长行业构成的差异。

We know some of that is down to the mix between tech and addictive sectors.

对吧？

Right?

对某些人来说，我认为这完全有道理，因为美国企业持续表现优异。

For some, it's just I think very much merited on the basis US corporates continue to shine.

它们的回报率即使在去年也依然领先。

They continue to outperform even last year's returns.

尽管美国的估值倍数有所扩张，但很大一部分原因只是盈利增长。

Whilst there was some multiple expense in The US, a lot of it was just earnings growth.

所以我认为，谈到美国企业时，这种溢价是合理的。

So I think when it comes to companies in corporate America, it's warranted.

在外汇市场，我们认为美元仍然被高估，根据我们的广泛估值模型，大约高估了15%。

And in FX, we think the dollar is still overvalued, maybe around 15% when you look at our broad valuation models.

但这相比去年的高点已经回落了不少。

But that's, you know, off quite a bit from the peaks of last year.

因此，这种溢价正在逐渐减弱。

So, you know, it is moderating in terms of that premium.

是的。

Yeah.

市场上正在发生太多事情。

There's so much going on in the markets.

也许可以这样形容：在金融危机之后，人们常说的口号是‘不要与美联储作对’。

Maybe one way to sort of put it is in the in the wake of the great financial crisis, the the mantra was don't fight the Fed.

而在后疫情的复苏周期中，可能是‘不要与基本面作对’。

Maybe in this post pandemic echo boom, it's don't fight the fundamentals.

我们正面临强大的基本面顺风，推动着市场，同时还叠加了技术面的基本面因素。

We have, so much fundamental tailwinds going on behind markets and on top of those technical, fundamentals as well.

你提到的基本面和不与美联储作对这一点非常好。

It's a very good point you make, by the way, around, you know, the fundamentals and not fighting the Fed.

我认为市场并没有试图与美联储对抗。

I don't think the market's trying to fight the Fed.

当然，关于央行独立性的担忧，以及那些可能在与美联储对抗的人，是我所提到的美国经济前景中的某些风险。

Of course, fears around central bank independence and those that may be fighting the Fed are some of the risks to what I mentioned in terms of that US story.

是的。

Yeah.

不。

No.

说得好。

Good point.

关于风险的这一点说得好。

Good point on the risks.

好的。

Alright.

当然，这个问题的另一面是，你对亚洲和欧洲怎么办？

The flip side of this, of course, is what do you do with Asia and Europe?

你知道，2025年，这些地区中的许多地方表现得更好了。

You know, 2025, those you know, a lot of those regions, they outperformed.

这还是值得去的地方吗？

Is that still, the place to go?

我想买欧洲和亚洲吗？

Do I want to buy Europe and Asia?

我在资本结构中应该处于什么位置？

And where do I want to be in the capital structure?

正如我们所说，美国市场势头强劲。

So look, as we said, strong momentum in The US.

当然，欧洲和亚洲的相对增长也很重要。

Of course, the relative growth in Europe and Asia is important.

但我认为现在重要的是，要盘点一下正在发挥作用的一些结构性因素。

But I think it's moment it's important just to take stock of some of the structural factors at play.

对吧？

Right?

我们必须记住，多年来，其他时区存在大量资金盈余，它们不断循环投资并购买美国资产，但其中一些情况已经发生了结构性变化。

We have to remember that for years, you had excess safes in the other time zones, recycling and buying US assets, and some of those things have just structurally changed.

当然，这其中也涉及地缘政治因素，这源于制裁的遗留影响以及对过度暴露于美国的担忧。

There's of course an element there of the geopolitics and that comes back from the legacy of sanctions and just concerns around exposure or too much exposure to U.

美国。

S.

资产。

Assets.

这些部分与贸易政策的聚焦有关，如今储备管理者受到更多关注，购买美国资产的活跃度已不如从前。

Some of those are function of the focus on trade policy and reserve managers now being watched and just not as active buying U.

美国。

S.

美国国债或美国。

Treasuries or U.

美元

S.

在其储备组合和投资组合中的比重。

Dollar in their reserve mix and portfolios.

我认为另一个关键因素是，欧洲和亚洲的一些国家已从过去的储蓄过剩转向放松了部分财政约束，尤其是在国防和必须为自身扩张融资的背景下，这意味着自然趋势将是更多资本在国内投资，流向美国的资金减少。

And I think another key element is just to shift from some of these countries in Europe and Asia having gone from being excess savers to now having loosened some of those fiscal constraints, particularly when you think about defense and having to fund their own expansion, which just means the natural drift is gonna be for more capital to be invested domestically and just less of that circulation going to The US.

因此，这一背景将有助于欧洲和亚洲。

So that backdrop should help Europe and Asia.

当然，它们在增长和回报竞争力方面仍需有所作为，但这确实有帮助。

Of course, they have to deliver when it comes to growth and compete when it comes to those returns, but that's helpful.

当我想到与欧洲客户交流时，我发现普遍存在悲观情绪。

I'd say when I think about conversations we have with clients in Europe, there's a lot of pessimism.

对吗？

Okay?

人们认为欧洲仍存在结构性问题，理由一大堆。

And there's a long list of reasons why people just think Europe still has structural issues.

对我们而言，这意味着超越市场的门槛相当低。

Equally for us, we would just say that means the bar for outperformance is quite low.

在表层之下，有些领域确实出现了超越表现和积极迹象。

And under the hood, there are some areas where you are seeing some outperformance and some positivity.

如果你看最近的数据，德国的工业订单显示，部分国防支出真的开始落地，而且比一些人想象的更具国内导向性。

If you look at recent data, the German industrial orders showed that some of that defense spending is really starting to happen, and it's more domestically geared than some may have thought.

对吧？

Right?

当你考虑这些结构性主题时，这将是积极的，毫无疑问，德国的国防股票今年到目前为止表现良好。

That is going to be positive when you think about some of those structural themes and no doubt German defense stocks, you know, are doing well so far this year.

你对欧元怎么看？

What do think about the euro currency?

我们认为欧元可能走强，但对我们而言，它将与我们基准情景中的美元温和贬值保持一致，这意味着可能达到1.20。

Look, we think it can strengthen, but for us it's gonna be in line with the shallow dollar depreciation that's our base case, which may mean, let's say, get to 120.

这在回报方面会有帮助，但不会成为欧洲资产的主要驱动力。

So that's going to help when it comes to returns, but it's not going to be, say, the primary driver of European assets.

欧洲面临的威胁来自中国。

The threat for Europe, it comes from China.

在三中全会之后，正如我们在最近的数据中所见，中国进一步强化了出口驱动型增长，这对欧洲构成了竞争性威胁。

Post the third plenum, as we've seen the doubling down on the export driven growth in China, as we've seen in the recent data, is a competitive threat for Europe.

但这也将会助力我们所认为的中国资产反弹的持续。

But that too is gonna help the continuation we think of the rally in Chinese assets.

这一轮上涨已经非常剧烈，近期政策制定者已经尝试通过一些措施来降温，比如调整融资保证金比例等。

Now it has been sharp and fierce, and you've seen policymakers try and put the brakes on it in recent sessions, like with some of these changes, you know, the margin finance ratios.

但其结构性基础我们认为依然牢固。

But the structural pinnings of it, think are strong.

好的。

Okay.

我们预计中国还将进一步推出宏观和财政宽松政策。

We expect there's gonna be some more macro and fiscal easing in China.

人工智能主题依然活跃。

The AI theme is alive.

与其他市场相比，估值在结构性上仍然便宜。

Valuations are still structurally cheap when you compare to other markets.

它从曾经不可投资，转变为投资者真正希望参与的市场。

And it went from being uninvestable to being one where we really do see investors want to engage.

我还想说，人工智能和科技主题并不仅限于中国。

I'd also say that that AI and tech theme is not just a China one.

我们对韩国、台湾等市场持积极看法。

We're positive when it comes to markets like Korea, Taiwan.

这些市场将与之相关，这建立在更广泛的新兴市场股票投资理念之上，我知道斯特拉特福德最近在一次会议上提到过这一点，此外还有巴西、印度、南非等国的本土故事，我认为这些都能提供助力。

There will be geared to it, which builds on a broader emerging market equity thesis, which I know Stratford talked about at a recent one of these, in addition to domestic stories you have in Brazil, in India, in South Africa, which I think can help.

现在，这是否意味着欧洲和亚洲股市将跑赢美国，我认为很难判断。

Now whether this means European and Asian equities outperform The U.

如果我们看我们自己的预测，幅度只有百分之几，它们都大致在同一水平。

S, I think is a hard one to judge.

如果我看看我们自己的预测，幅度只有百分之几，它们都大致在同一水平。

If I look at our own forecast within a few percent, they're all in and around the same place.

我们对这三个地区都持乐观态度，我认为这在投资者寻求拓宽和多元化投资组合的当下很有帮助。

We are positive on all three regions, which I think helps at a time when, as I said, investors are looking to broaden and diversify.

我认为，真正的转折点将是外汇市场真正重新活跃，并出现像去年某些时候那样的广泛分化。

I think the game changer will be if FX markets really reawaken and you get broader divergence like we saw at some points last year.

目前这并不是我们的基本预期或分析框架。

Right now that isn't the base case or the framework.

要让这种情况发生，要么是美国机构质量方面的担忧加剧，要么是美国劳动力市场出现更明显的疲软，促使美联储重启进一步降息，那时外汇市场才可能启动，进而可能使美国以外的股市显著跑赢。

I think for that to kick in, it's either going be more concerns around institutional quality in The US or if you did see a sharper weakening in the labor market in The US and the Fed could resume further cuts, that's when FX could kick in and then maybe that's when the ex US equity markets really do materially outperform.

好的。

Alright.

所以听起来，Kunal，你的意思是我们在美国、欧洲、亚洲，甚至新兴市场都看到了看涨的态势，一切都很棒，而这恰恰是我想要买入保护性策略的时候。

So it sounds like, Kunal, what you're saying is that we've got some bullish setups in The US, in Europe, in Asia, even in emerging markets, everything is awesome, that is exactly the time I want to buy protection.

是的。

Yep.

所以请你详细讲讲，你已经提到了一些潜在风险，比如美联储和地缘政治，能否为我们梳理一下，在这种环境下你最青睐的对冲方式是什么？

So walk us through because you've already mentioned a couple of the risks that are out there, the Fed, geopolitical, Walk us through your favorite form of protection in an environment like this.

当然。

Of course.

当你看到这些共识性主题逐渐形成时，必须保持谨慎。

Look, you have to get cautious when you do see these consensual themes building.

而且通常来说，你不应该在一月份刚开盘时就追着最初的行情跑。

Look at and typically also, you're not meant to chase the first price action you see out of the gates in January.

现在，说到寻找保护性投资的地方，我们确实认为美国利率现在可以作为投资组合的分散工具。

Now, look what I'd say in terms of places to look for protection, look we do think actually US rates now has a place as a portfolio diversifier.

鉴于美国当前的一些动态，市场已经定价了从现在开始更温和的降息周期，对吧？

You have priced a shallower easing cycle from here just given some of the dynamics in terms of what's happening in The US, right?

如果从现在往前看，真正可能打破这一广泛叙事的情况是，尽管有刺激政策出台，但劳动力市场依然疲软或美国经济周期放缓。

If you look forward from here, the things that can really break this broader narrative is if you do see the labor market weakness or The US cycle slow down despite the stimulus coming.

而那时，考虑到当前美国短期利率的定价水平，美国固定收益资产实际上可以帮助分散你持有的风险资产或股权敞口的风险。

And that's when I think given what's priced now in the front end of US rates, actually some US fixed income can help diversify some of the risk assets or equity loans that you have.

这也意味着，传统的60/40配置策略可能从现在起有助于改善收益 margins。

It also means that the sixty forty type dynamic may just help with the margins from here.

我认为人们寻找对冲的其他地方是信贷市场。

I think the other places people are looking for hedges are the credit markets.

去年年底，我们确实看到一些信贷问题的预警信号，但市场随后反弹了。

Now we did have some of those canaries in the coal mines of credit issues late last year, but the markets came back.

你知道，我们在年末时利差已经处于非常紧的水平。

You know, we closed the year with spreads really at tight percentiles.

因此，将信贷空头作为对冲工具很有吸引力。

So it is tempting to look at credit shorts as the hedge.

目前，来自非信贷专家、希望做空信贷的咨询数量，再次让你对这种对冲策略的有效性感到担忧。

Right now, the number of incomings we have from non credit specialists looking to short credit, again, is something that worries you about that being an effective hedge.

终有一天，利差会扩大。

At some point, spreads will widen.

但现在就说时机成熟还很难，这些头寸很难持有，直到你开始看到违约或真正能触发这一情况的事件发生。

It's just hard to say that now the time is right, and these are hard positions to carry until you start seeing defaults or something that really can make that kick in.

与此同时，我们看到大量发行，但市场已经很好地吸收了。

And in the meantime, we're seeing lots of issuance, but it's been well absorbed.

所以这还不是我们会转向的方向。

So that's not one, you know, which we would veer to yet.

不过我认为应该关注外汇市场。

I think the place to look though is in currency markets.

从实际波动性来看，已经有所缓解。

Volatility in terms of what's being realized has subsided.

那黄金呢？

What about gold?

传统上，这一直是很好的避险工具。

Traditionally, that's been a great place for protection.

但现在似乎人人都在涌入。

Now it seems like everybody's piling in.

你怎么看？

What's your view?

你看。

Look.

人们都在涌入。

People are piling in.

你看。

Now look.

去年的回报率基本上是我们过去四十年来最好的，这得益于连续几年的强劲表现。

Last year's returns were basically the best we've seen in the last forty years on the back of a couple of strong years.

我认为黄金表现优异的一些原因，与我之前提到的结构性因素是一致的。

I think some of those reasons for gold outperformance were in line with what I mentioned in terms of structural forces at play.

我认为去美元化这一趋势是真实的，这也是为什么你看到了央行的参与。

I do think that de dollarization theme was real, and that's why you did see central bank participation.

我认为货币贬值这一主题也确实存在，由于你看到的货币和财政刺激，这一趋势正在潜伏，并促使投资者——不仅仅是央行——纷纷买入。

I do think the debasement theme is also there, and it's lurking because of the monetary, the fiscal stimulus you're seeing, and that's leading investors, not just central banks, to buy.

此外，人们对全球化的担忧也在增加，这源于地缘政治因素，因此甚至连散户都在参与。

And then there are fears about the globalization, and this is down to geopolitics, and that's why even retail are participating.

所以去年的情况不仅仅是来自央行的资金流入，也不仅仅来自亚洲。

So last year was not just about flows from central banks, and it wasn't just coming from Asia.

如果你看一下ETF的资金流，它们在欧洲和美国持续增长，并变得庞大而显著。

If you look at the ETF flows, they were growing and getting large and significant in Europe, in US.

因此，这是当前稳定的投资力量，我们认为这将进一步推动人们增加黄金配置。

So that's a steady investor on the current, which we think is gonna add to just people wanting to grow their allocations in gold.

虽然这些规模在历史上已经很大，但与市场中的流动性以及我们看到的其他地方的资金流相比，仍然较小。

Now the sizes were large history, Now but small the versus the amount of liquidity in markets and the flows we're seeing in other places.

如果我看看我们自身的业务，不仅来自机构投资者，还包括我们的私人财富客户希望从较低水平提升其黄金配置，我认为这将有助于黄金表现。

And if I look at our own franchise, right, not just from institutional investors, but also when you think about our private wealth clients wanting to grow those allocations from low levels, I think that's going to help gold to perform.

当然，随着更多元化的投资者参与进来，正如你所说，当所有人都在买入时，你必须做好应对回撤的准备。

Now, of course, as you get a broader range of investors involved, and as you said, when everyone's buying, you have to be able to brace for drawdowns.

我们在十月就经历了一次这样的回撤。

We saw one of those in October.

但这次回撤持续时间很短。

It was short lived.

随后就被买盘吸收了。

It got bought.

我仍然认为人们会在回调时买入黄金。

I still think people will buy gold on dips.

对吧？

Right?

我相信在未来几周内，还会出现重新布局的机会。

And there will be opportunities to reload over the course, I'm sure, of the next few weeks.

那么，什么会改变黄金的走势呢？

Now what's gonna change that for gold?

你看。

Look.

我认为这必须导致人们对法定货币的信心恢复。

I think that's gonna have to lead to scenarios where confidence comes back on fiat currencies.

如果美国的实际利率大幅上升，这会让这种零收益或负收益的资产显得缺乏吸引力，但短期内很难想象这些情景会如何发生。

If you got materially higher real rates in The US, which would make a, you know, flat to negative carry asset like this look tough, it's just hard to see how those scenarios kick in in the short term.

太好了。

Terrific.

我的意思是，2026年到现在这两周已经非常忙碌了。

I mean, it's been a really busy two weeks already here in 2026.

我期待今年晚些时候再和你联系，看看情况如何。

I'm looking forward to touching base with you later in the year to see how things are going.

卡纳尔，非常感谢你抽出时间与我们交流。

Kanal, thanks so much for taking time with us.

当然。

Absolutely.

谢谢你，克里斯。

Thanks a lot, Chris.

本期《市场》节目到这里就结束了。

That does it for this week's episode of the markets.

我是克里斯·赫西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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