大规模扩大贸易

这是市场频道。

This is the markets.

我是克里斯·哈西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

今天是1月22日，星期四。

And today is Thursday, January 22.

我身边的是里奇·普日比罗德斯基，他负责我们全球银行与市场部门的欧洲一价衍生品交易。

And I'm joined by Rich Przybyrodsky, who is head of European One Delta Trading in our global banking and markets division.

里奇，非常感谢你再次做客市场频道。

Rich, thanks so much for joining us again on the markets.

谢谢，沙马齐。

Thanks, Shamyazi.

好的。

Alright.

我们来聊聊本周波动剧烈的市场吧。

Let's talk about the volatility of the hit markets this week.

很多都与对贸易战的担忧有关。

A lot of it was tied to fear around a trade war.

有些波动来去不定，但我们的市场确实再次在定价贸易战的可能性。

Some of it seemed to come and go, but our markets really pricing in possibilities of trade war again.

你怎么看这个问题？

How do you think about that?

是的。

Yeah.

听好了。

Look.

我认为，本周我们看到，股市中地缘政治风险的消退仍然是一个持续的趋势。

I I think we've seen this week that fading geopolitical risk in equities remains the persistent trend.

一般来说，大多数市场参与者都认为，当前政府对经济持非常有利的态度，对股市也持非常有利的态度。

You know, in general, there is a perception amongst most market participants that the current administration has a very favorable approach towards the economy, very favorable approach towards equities.

所以我认为，很多言论都被打了个折扣。

And so I think that a lot of the rhetoric is, you know, taken with a grain of salt.

我认为确实有一些时候，人们对格陵兰岛、委内瑞拉等话题非常兴奋。

I think there were certainly moments of time when people got very excited about Greenland, times around Venezuela.

但所有这些都来去匆匆，归根结底，你获得的回报就是去忽略这种溢价。

But all of that has kind of come and gone, and at the end of the day, you know, you've been paid to fade that premium.

你获得的回报就是忽视这些言辞，我认为市场有着非常务实的看法。

You've been paid to ignore the rhetoric, And I think there's a very practical kind of view in terms of markets.

所以我认为，目前没有人预期贸易摩擦会加剧。

So I don't think that anyone is anticipating an acceleration in trade wars at this point.

我认为美国当前的关注点完全集中在中期选举上，这意味着你必须持有非常支持市场、支持增长的观点，不会做出任何真正与市场或股东利益相悖的举动。

I think that the focus that is coming from The US seems squarely around the midterms and I think that that means that you have to have a very pro market, pro growth view, and and you wouldn't do anything that's really adversarial towards the interest of, I think, markets or shareholders.

所以，你看。

So, you know, look.

确实有一些局部担忧，人们也曾担心，但这种担忧并没有持续太久。

There have been pockets and and people have worried, but that worry hasn't lasted very long.

没错。

No.

确实没有。

It certainly hasn't.

不过，本周你看到的这种波动，是正常的波动，还是让你觉得比平时更严重了一些？

The jumpiness that you saw though this week, was it just normal jumpiness, or did you get at all concerned that you were seeing a little bit more than usual?

你看。

Look.

对我来说，担忧更多不在于地缘政治言论，而在于我们在债券市场某些部分开始看到的情况。

I think that the the concerns for me were were less about geopolitical rhetoric and and more about, you know, what we started to see in parts of the bond market.

你知道，我们看到日本利率出现了相当剧烈的波动。

You know, I think we saw some pretty extreme volatility in in Japanese rates.

为了说明这个观点，我们一直处在一种热钱涌动、顺周期、全球增长的背景下，全世界都在寻找名义增长的替代指标。

And, you know, to kinda frame the argument, we we've been in this run it hot, pro cyclical, global growth backdrop, and the world is looking for kind of nominal growth proxies.

因此，无论你看看黄金、白银、铂金、铝、锂、锡，任何一种代表实物资产的品种，从2026年初开始都一路飙升。

And so whether you look at gold, silver, platinum, aluminum, lithium, tin, anything that is a measure of of a real asset has just gone vertical to start 2026.

因此，你看到通胀预期在一些地方开始上升，比如日本，它们正在明确扩大财政支出、提前举行选举、取消消费税，这可能是你唯一会担心债券波动可能回归的地方。

And so you've seen inflation expectations begin to pick up in places like Japan where they're explicitly expanding fiscally, calling an early election, canceling a consumption tax, that's kind of the one spot you might start to think could bond volatility come back.

因此，日本收益率曲线的长期部分出现了显著上升。

And so there was a pretty big pickup at the back end of the Japanese curve.

目前似乎已经稳定下来了。

It seems to have settled for now.

但我认为，这在很大程度上加剧了市场的焦虑。

But I think that was a bigger part of, I think, the market's anxiety.

而且，我认为在这种经济增长非常强劲的环境下，你可以继续维持下去。

And and, know, I think for me, you know, you can stay in this environment where growth is very good.

人们有动力继续消费、投资和扩张。

People are incentivized to keep spending, keep building, keep growing.

但问题是，债券市场会不会在某个时刻收回这杯酒？

But the question is, does the bond market come and pull the proverbial punch bowl at some point?

因此，利率上升，市场不再预期降息，反而开始预期加息，突然间，金融状况开始收紧，你开始下调周期性增长预期。

And so, you know, rates back up, you stop pricing cuts, you start pricing hikes, and suddenly, FCI starts to tighten, and you start to downgrade cyclical growth.

我们还没到那一步，但已经看到一些迹象开始被市场定价。

We're not there yet, but we saw some elements of that begin to get priced in.

里奇，让我稍微展开一下这个问题，提醒我们的听众为什么国际债券市场对全球股市至关重要。

Rich, let me expand on that question for a second here because remind our listeners why an international bond market matters to equities everywhere.

你知道，债券市场是如何传导到股市的呢？

You know, what's the transmission mechanism for bonds over the equities there?

是的。

Yeah.

当然。

Sure.

我的意思是，至少在过去二十年里，股票市场对金融条件的变化极为敏感。

I mean, the equity market, you know, at least over the last twenty years have been extremely sensitive to to changes in financial conditions.

因此，每当你看到债券市场出现剧烈抛售，以及债券市场波动性上升时，都会导致金融条件收紧，从而打压经济增长预期、盈利前景和人们对未来的预期。

And so whenever you see an aggressive sell off in bonds and the change in bond market volatility, that creates a tightening of financial conditions and that hurts growth estimates, it hurts earnings, it hurts people's prospects around the future.

因此，这里存在着极大的敏感性。

And so there is a huge amount of sensitivity there.

全球市场是相互关联的。

The global market is is linked.

债券市场尤其紧密相连。

Bond market is particularly linked.

当日本收益率变动时，市场会变得非常敏感。

There's lot of sensitivity when, you know, Japan yields move.

这会迫使美国、英国和欧洲的市场做出反应。

It it forces moves in The US and and in The UK and in Europe.

因此，我们在交易台上非常关注这种冲击。

And so, you know, it's something that we focus on a lot on the desk watching that impulse.

如果这种冲击在缓解或加剧，可能会产生实质性影响。

And if that impulse is is easing or tightening, it it can have a real material impact.

它对长期限资产的影响更大，比如结构性增长领域的某些部分。

It it certainly has more impact on things with long duration and, you know, in pockets of of of things like secular growth.

因此，当收益率上升、周期性增长增强时，它可能引发资金轮动。

And so it can cause rotation whether yields are rising and and cyclical growth is going up.

但当债券市场波动时，这是一种极具破坏性的组合，会导致波动性蔓延至其他资产类别，人们最终会去风险化。

But when you have bond market volatility, that is a rather toxic combination that just causes volatility to spill over into other asset classes and people end up derisking.

所以我们非常密切关注这一点，有时候它确实会成为一个问题。

So it's something we watch really carefully and, you know, it it can become an issue at times.

这是个非常好的观点。

It's such a great point.

不仅仅是利率水平，而是利率迅速达到不同水平的速度，这对股市至关重要。

It's not just the level of rates, it's the rapidity with which it gets to a different level that can matter so much to equities.

你提到了黄金，还提到了一堆实物资产。

You mentioned gold, you mentioned a bunch of hard assets there.

如果我们能聊一会儿黄金的话，因为高盛研究部门今天上调了他们的黄金预测。

Let's talk about gold for a second if we can because Goldman Sachs Research raised their gold forecast today, actually.

黄金那边发生了什么？

What was going on with gold?

是你说的通胀交易吗？还是美国例外论终结的交易？或者是散户投资者的行为？

Is it just that inflation trade that you hinted at, or is this a end of US exceptionalism trade, or is this a retail investor?

你如何解释黄金目前的走势？

How do you how do you explain what's going on with gold?

所以，我认为首要的是，黄金一直是一种央行交易。

So I I would say first and foremost, gold has been a central bank trade.

我认为，在多年前俄罗斯资产被没收的那一刻，央行对黄金的需求出现了急剧上升。

And I think that there was a moment maybe around the confiscation of of Russian assets many years ago where you've had a really precipitous pickup in central bank demand for gold.

这关乎我持有的储备资产是什么，以及我如何思考这种定位。

And that's a question of just what reserve asset do I hold, you know, how do I think about that framing.

这周波兰公布了相关消息。

You had Poland come out this week.

我认为他们宣布了将购买150吨黄金。

I think they announced 150 tons of gold they were gonna buy as well.

我认为全球每个央行都在某种程度上调整其储备配置。

And I think every central bank globally is kind of changing their reserve allocation to some degree.

但现在，这一趋势的最后阶段已经变得高度投机，而且不仅仅是黄金。

Now, I think the last legs of this have become highly speculative and and and not really just gold.

我的意思是，你看到的还有白银、铂金、锡和铜。

I mean, I mean, you see it, again, silver, platinum, tin, copper.

我的意思是，这些东西涨得非常迅猛，速度极快。

I mean, these things have moved very aggressively, very quickly.

所以我认为这其中涉及许多不同的层面。

And so I think there's a lot of different dimensions to it.

再说一遍，我们现在处于一种热火朝天的环境中，人们都在寻找那种通胀型繁荣类资产，而贵金属和基础金属正属于这一类别。

Again, like, we're in a run it hot type of backdrop, so people look for, you know, kind of inflationary boom type of assets, and and I think precious and and base metals would fall in that category.

黄金在这方面非常特殊，因为它不仅是投机对象，同时也是储备管理的一种工具。

Gold is is very special in that sense because, again, it's it's more of a tool of reserve management as well as part of that speculation.

但你看，

But, you know, look.

我认为有很多因素正好凑在一起了。

I think there's there's a lot of elements square together.

你可以回溯到股市。

You can pull it back to equities.

在股市中，你看到周期性板块出现了大规模的上涨。

Equities, you see massive rally in pro cyclical parts of of of the equity complex.

这一切都在讲述同一个故事：增长是好的，通胀似乎正在上升，人们希望持有实物资产。

And and that's all telling the same kind of narrative, which is growth is good, seemingly inflation is picking up and people want to own real assets.

我知道这是一个非常重要的观点。

I know it's such a great point.

你提到了周期性股票的交易。

You mentioned on the equity pro cyclical trade.

这是否意味着我们正在迎来之前讨论过的2025年市场广度扩展？

Does that suggest we're getting this broadening of the market trade that we were talking about at the 2025?

这会是2026年的主题吗？

Is that that gonna be the theme of 2026?

这不再仅仅是关于美国的科技巨头股。

It's not so much about mega cap tech in The US.

这将是一场更广泛的交易，而这种扩展是否会包括美国以外的资产？

It's gonna be a broadening trade and will that include stuff outside The US?

我认为到目前为止，这已经是一场大规模的广泛性交易，而且这种广泛性体现在两个方面。

So I I think it's been a massive broadening trade so far and and I think it's been in in two ways of broadening trade.

一是，我们应该明确指出大型科技股和软件股的低迷表现。

One is that, you know, we should really kinda call out the underperformance of of big cap tech and software.

尤其是在软件领域，你已经看到了大幅的估值下调，我认为这主要是由于人工智能领域的一些创新，以及最近发生的变化。

And, you know, I think particularly in software, you've seen massive derating, and I think that's a function of, you know, really some innovations in AI and, you know, what's happened very recently.

但在大型科技股方面，它们在资本支出上投入很多，股票回购却不多，同时面临电力和DRAM供应的限制，还有一点政治压力。

But in big cap tech, know spending a lot on CapEx, not as much in buybacks, some constraints in power and DRAM and I think a little bit of political pressure as well.

请记住，我们最初处于极度集中的状态。

And remember, we started at this point of just extreme concentration.

因此，从标普指数和MSCI全球指数的构成来看，每个人持有的这些股票都很多。

And so, you know, by the nature of the composition of the S and P, by the nature of the MSCI World, everybody has a lot of these equities.

所以，如果未来的回报看起来不再那么有吸引力，估值也显得略高，那么将几美元从这些公司转移到其他资产上，就会产生巨大的影响。

And so if suddenly the forward returns just don't look as compelling, the valuation looks a little bit elevated, Moving a couple of dollars out of these companies into everything else is a massive impact.

我认为你在美股市场已经看到了这种现象，比如等权重指数或罗素指数大幅跑赢大盘。

And I think you're seeing it in The US where you're seeing, you know, the the equal weight or the Russell massively outperforming.

再次强调，周期性与结构性偏好之间的差异，优质股表现糟糕，这一切都符合这一叙事。

Again, cyclical versus secular bias, quality performing very badly, all kind of fits the narrative.

但另一方面，新兴市场似乎整体都非常庞大。

But then the other side of it it like, you know, EM and every bit of EM seems very, very big.

因此，海外投资者正在寻找其他更具本土性的资产，再次扩大他们的投资覆盖面。

And so people are looking for other, you know, more domestic assets for for overseas investors and and again, things that broaden out that exposure.

所以，与过去几年相比，这种分散化程度堪称空前——那时的故事只是美国七只股票，其他都不重要。

So it's been an incredibly broad broadening out relative to where we've been where, you know, in the last couple years, the story was seven stocks in The US and nothing else mattered.

到目前为止，感觉非常不同。

So it feels very, very different so far.

我不确定这种趋势会永远持续下去，但这确实是今天的普遍感受。

I'm not so sure that's going to carry on, you know, in perpetuity, but but that's that's definitely the feeling today.

那么，给这一切做个总结吧。

Put a bow around all this then.

那该怎么做交易？

What's the trade?

你想要持有哪些资产？

What what do you wanna own?

你看。

Look.

我觉得，就目前而言，周期性交易仍然持续。

I I I think that for now, the cyclical trade persists.

你知道，我们对新兴市场持相当积极的看法，特别是我们喜欢希腊银行，认为这是一个非常有吸引力的交易。

You know, we have a pretty favorable view of emerging markets and, you know, specifically, we like Greek banks and we think that's a pretty compelling trade.

而且，这方面的配置空间还很大，估值也有很大的提升空间。

And, you know, it's something that has got a lot of room to get more allocation and a lot of room for multiple perspective.

我认为，从本地和战术角度来看，纳斯达克与罗素指数的利差已经急剧扩大，因此至少在交易层面，或许可以开始更积极地思考一些严重超跌的领域。

I think, you know, locally and tactically, this Nasdaq Russell spread has moved so aggressively that I think there's probably an opportunity to start thinking a little more constructively about some of these very beaten up pockets at least for a trade.

我觉得，目前市场感觉非常两极分化。

I do think that things feel just very, very bifurcated right now.

我认为这些都是一些相对有趣的交易，但就结构性而言，新兴市场仍然是人们将继续配置的方向，而且其中某些领域更具吸引力，比如我提到的那些。

So I think those are all kind of relatively interesting trades, but but structurally, you know, I think emerging markets remains where people are gonna continue to allocate, and I think there are certain pockets within it that are that are more attractive like ones I mentioned.

好的。

Alright.

展望未来。

Looking ahead.

随着一月最后一周的到来，你下周关注什么？

What are you focused on for next week as we go into the last week of January?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，你看。

I mean, look.

我认为这将围绕数据展开，尤其是科技公司的业绩将受到特别关注，下周后半段将有一系列科技和软件相关公司的数据发布，我认为这些数据至关重要。

I think it's gonna be about numbers, and and I think tech numbers are gonna be particularly in focus, and there's gonna be a series of, you know, tech related and software related names kind of in the back half next week, which I think are are pretty critical.

我们仍在等待美联储主席的提名。

You know, still waiting to see if we're gonna get a Fed chair nomination.

我认为这将非常关键。

I think that's gonna be pretty critical.

另外，美国的数据正在回暖。

And then look, I mean, The US data has been picking up.

对吧？

Right?

所以我们现在处于削减幅度在低两位数的阶段。

And so we're at this point where we were kind of in the low twos of cuts.

现在我们只是低于两次削减。

Now we're just sub two cuts.

而且，如果事情继续这样发展，你仍然处于这种通胀型繁荣的环境中。

And, you know, if things keep going in this direction, you're still in this inflationary kind of booming type of environment.

你知道，存在重新定价的风险。

You know, there's a risk that you start repricing that.

所以我认为，从现在开始，每一次数据发布——ISM、劳动力数据、初请失业金人数——都很重要，因为如果你看到美国劳动力市场出现稳定迹象，你可能会迅速调整利率市场的预期分布。

And so I think, again, like every increment, ISM, labor data, initial claims, all these things matter from here because if you do see signs of stabilization in The US labor market, you could really quickly pivot the distribution in terms of what you're gonna do in terms of the rate market.

所以这很重要。

So that's important.

然后我还在等待关于住房可负担性的相关数据。

And then and then I'm still waiting to get the stuff on on housing affordability as well.

那本来是打算在达沃斯发布的。

That was meant to come at Davos.

我们还没听到这方面的消息。

We haven't heard that yet.

所以我认为这也可能成为一个有趣的催化剂。

So I think that could be an interesting catalyst as well.

是的。

Yeah.

关于增长的一个关键点是。

The great point about growth.

增长非常好，直到市场将这种增长反映到债券市场，然后你就面临利率的逆风。

Growth is really good until the markets start to put that growth into the bond market and then you got the headwind of rates.

最终通常都是这样，但每次又有点不同，对吧？

It's usually how it goes in the end, but every time is a bit different, isn't

是的？

it?

每次都是投票前。

Every time is pre vote.

听好了，里奇，非常感谢你抽出时间与我们交流。

Listen, Rich, thanks so much for taking the time and spending with us today.

谢谢你们邀请我。

Thanks for having me.

本期《市场》节目就到这里。

That does it for this week's episode of the markets.

我是克里斯·赫西。

I'm Chris Hussey.

感谢收听。

Thanks for listening.

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文中提及的每个第三方组织名称均为相关公司的财产，此处仅用于信息和识别目的，绝不暗示任何此类公司与高盛之间存在所有权或许可关系。

Each name of a third party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.

为方便起见，此处提供文字稿，但可能与原始视频或音频内容存在差异。

A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.

高盛不对任何错误负责。本材料不得复制、分发、发布、全文或部分复制，或未经高盛明确书面同意向任何其他人士披露。

Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the This material should not be copied, distributed, published, reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.

版权所有 2026 年，高盛。

Copyright 2026, Goldman Sachs.

保留所有权利。

All rights reserved.