加密货币特别篇：凯茜·伍德第二部分 - 为何比特币将永远是#1加密货币

我们认为不会有太多加密货币。事实上，就纯粹的加密货币而言，比特币占据了加密货币领域的主导地位。比特币就是加密货币。我们相信它将成为迄今为止最大的加密货币，遥遥领先。

We don't think there are gonna be very many cryptocurrencies. In fact, Bitcoin owns the cryptocurrency space when it comes to pure crypto. Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency. We think it's going to be the biggest one by far by far.

欢迎收听《大师投资者》播客，我是威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特。在这里，我们颂扬并向世界上最伟大的投资者、商界领袖和政治家学习，为听众朋友们提供优势。同时也欢迎凯茜·伍德再次加入，我们本周早些时候与她进行了交流，现在她仍与我们在一起，进行一场关于加密货币的额外对话。凯茜，非常感谢你留下来。

Welcome to the Master Investor podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, where we celebrate and learn from the success of the greatest investors, business leaders, and politicians in the world, giving you, our listeners, an edge. Welcome back to Cathie Wood as well, who we caught up with earlier in the week, and she's still with us for a bonus crypto conversation. Cathie, thanks so much for sticking around.

我的荣幸。

My pleasure.

那么，你当然是加密货币的坚定信仰者。你是相信所有的加密货币，还是只相信某些特定的加密货币？

So you are a big believer in crypto, of course. Are you a believer in all cryptocurrencies or only certain cryptocurrencies?

不，并非所有加密货币或所谓的加密货币。我们认为不会有太多加密货币。实际上，有加密货币和加密资产之分。就纯粹的加密货币而言，比特币占据了加密货币领域的主导地位。现在我们还有稳定币，它们也是加密货币，但它们与美元挂钩，因为它们主要由国债证券作为抵押。

No. Not all crypto or supposed cryptocurrencies. We don't think there are gonna be very many cryptocurrencies. In fact, there's cryptocurrencies and then cryptoassets. Bitcoin owns the cryptocurrency space when it comes to pure crypto, and now we have stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies as well, but they are tied to the dollar, because they're collateralized primarily by treasury securities.

因此，比特币就是加密货币，我们相信它将成为迄今为止最大的加密货币，遥遥领先。目前它专注于基于规则的货币体系。规则是货币数量理论，即总量2100万单位，这就是它的上限，目前我们大约有2000万单位。

So Bitcoin is the cryptocurrency, and we think it's going to be, the biggest one by far. By far. Now it's focused on it's a monetary system rules based. The rule is quantity theory of money. So 21,000,000 units, that's where it's stopping, and we're at about 20,000,000 units right now.

这就是数量理论。稳定币，正如我之前提到的，是基于美元的。如果你能找到使用这些稳定币的方法，比如在去中心化金融（DeFi）中，你可以通过稳定币赚钱。就在上周，Coinbase推出了一款产品，允许USDC持有者——他们因监管原因无法获得利息支付——但可以在DeFi生态系统中出借他们的USDC，并且从上周末开始，他们可以获得10.4%的收益。

So that's quantity theory. Stablecoins are are based, as I mentioned before, on the dollar. And, if you can find a way to use those stablecoins, which you can in the decentralized in DeFi, decentralized financial services, You can earn money, you can earn, money from your stablecoins. Just this last week, Coinbase introduced a product allowing holders of USDC who do not get the interest payments, they're not allowed to by regulation, but they're allowed to lend their or to loan their, USDC in the DeFi ecosystem, and they can earn, as of last week, 10.4%.

所以我想了解稳定币，就像是为我这样的外行准备的傻瓜指南。我能理解为什么一种以美元计价、易于转移的资产具有吸引力，不管人们怎么说，在地下世界或某些资产可能被没收的国家。但对于生活在伦敦或纽约的人来说，理由是什么？因为你可以轻松转账美元或英镑，赚取利息，并由中央银行和政府背书。如果你身处这些国家，通过稳定币进行这些操作的优势是什么？

So I I wanna get into stablecoins as a sort of idiot's guide if you can for me because I can see the argument why a dollar denominated easy to move around asset is attractive, whatever people wanna say, in the underworld or in certain countries where assets might get seized or or or whatever else is the case. What is the argument for someone that lives in London or someone that lives in New York? Because you can transfer a dollar with great ease or a pound with great ease, earn interest, have it backed by the central bank and the government. What what's the what's the advantage of doing that via a stablecoin if you're in one of those countries?

是的，你说得对。目前主要有两种稳定币。Tether主要在美国和欧洲以外的地区流通，尤其是在MICA（或你们称之为MICA？）之后。

So, and and you're right. There are two major stablecoins today. Tether is primarily outside The United States and outside Europe now after MICA. Or do you call it MICA or MICA?

我也不知道。

I either.

我不确定。好吧，是监管的原因。总之，这两种稳定币占据了90%的市场份额。

I don't know. Okay. The regulation. So it dominates. The the two have 90% of the market.

Circle可以说是更合规的，尤其在美国。欧洲也有USDC的欧元版本，但并未流行起来。这就是两大主要稳定币。至于我们发达国家为何需要它们——你理解新兴市场的需求，我们曾以为比特币会扮演这一角色。但稳定币的出现抢占了比特币的部分份额，这是我们最初分析时未预料到的。在这个新世界里，我们正在做的是去除金融服务中的中间商。

Circle is quote, unquote more regulatory compliant certainly in The United States, and and there is a euro version of, USDC in in in Europe which has not taken off. So those are the big two. Now why would, we in the developed world you understand the the emerging world, and we thought Bitcoin was gonna serve that that role. So stablecoins coming along has taken some share from Bitcoin, which we didn't expect when we did our original analysis. So in in this world, what we're doing is taking the middlemen out of financial services.

中间商是什么？或许不够准确或不公平地说，我曾称他们为'收费站'，听起来有些恶意，其实并非如此。传统金融中的所有中间商都是为了降低交易风险，保护参与的金融机构。而进入区块链技术时代后，交易是点对点的。

And what are the middlemen? You know, incorrectly or in a not fair way, I used to say, you know, these are the toll takers. You know, it almost sounded nefarious, which it's not. All of those middlemen in the traditional financial world are there to lower risk the risk of a transaction to the various financial institutions participating. When we move into the world of blockchain technology, it's peer to peer.

中间商消失了。我喜欢用更易懂的方式解释：信用卡交易会自动收取2.5%的费用，这是中间商的存在导致的。现在不再需要这样了。在发达国家，这类费用通常在2%到4%之间，如果是汇款到发展中国家（比如尼日利亚），可能高达25%。所有这些都将被扁平化，转为基于区块链的费用，最终会降至1%甚至更低。

The middlemen go away. So the way I like to describe it in a way that's more understandable, you know, for credit cards, it's automatic two and a half percent tax on each transaction, again, function of middlemen. That doesn't have to be anymore. We will and and the tax will be anywhere from two and a half percent or 2% to 4% in the developed world or 25% if you're, doing, remittances in the developed world, like, say, Nigeria. All of that flattens out and goes to fee based to the blockchains, which will drop to 1% or less.

目前这些费用处于什么水平？因为目前加密货币挖矿和交易成本还没有降到1%，对吧？

Where are those fees at the moment? Because it's not like the cost of crypto mining and transaction costs at the moment is it hasn't got down to 1% yet?

不，不，不。所有这些都需要时间逐步实现。我的意思是，如果你仅仅在加密货币领域运作，比如我刚刚举的USDC例子，有人会说，嘿。

No. No. No. All of this is going to happen over time. I mean, yes, if you're just if you're operating in the world of, of just crypto, just, I just gave an example of, USDC, a person saying, hey.

我个人可以以10.4%的利率贷出这笔钱。在其他任何地方我都拿不到这个利率。这是其中一方面，某种程度上算是储蓄利率。而那些以10.4%借款的人根本拿不到这种利率，他们规模太小，银行根本不会搭理他们。

Personally, I can lend that out for a 10.4% rate. I'm not gonna get that anywhere else. So that's one side of it, and and that's kind of a saving rate. And the those who are borrowing at 10.4% could never get that rate. They're too small that banks won't have anything to do with them.

这就是DeFi带来的另一项变革。过去无法获得贷款或贷款成本高得离谱的人现在可以了。另一方面，借出资金的储户也能获得比传统储蓄高得多的收益。

So that's the other thing that's happening because of DeFi. It is those who could not get loans or the loans would be prohibitively expensive now can. And savers, on the other hand, who are loaning the money out, they get a much better yield on their savings.

但显然比把钱存在

And But obviously take a bigger risk than placing that

风险更大。

Bigger risk.

银行里承担更大风险。

In in a bank.

但是，这些都是透明的生态系统。

But but these are transparent ecosystems.

嗯。

Mhmm.

而且，你知道，许多贷款都是超额抵押的。我们在三箭资本和Luna事件以及整个市场崩盘期间学到了这一点。任何链上的抵押品都立即被清零，这意味着金融机构收回了他们的资金。如果你身处不透明且高度中心化的FTX生态系统中，你就失去了所有的钱，所以实际上，在链上比在FTX更安全，当然FTX是一家欺诈公司。

And, you know, many, loans are overcollateralized. And so and we learned this during, during Three Arrows and Luna and that whole meltdown. Anyone who was on chain, their collateral collateral was wiped out right away, meaning the financial institutions got their money back. If you were in the opaque, and very centralized FTX ecosystem, you lost all your money, so it actually was safer to be on chain than to be at FTX, which of course was a fraudulent company.

让我们谈谈比特币与以太坊，因为几周前我们邀请了Tom Lee。是的，他对比特币看涨，但对以太坊更加乐观。他认为以太坊的规模将超过比特币。为什么他在这点上错了？为什么比特币总会比以太坊更大？

Let's touch on Bitcoin versus Ethereum because we had Tom Lee on a few weeks ago and Yes. He's a bull on Bitcoin, but he's even bigger bull on Ethereum. He thinks we'll we'll surpass the size of Bitcoin. Why is he wrong on that? Why is Bitcoin always gonna be bigger than Ethereum?

比特币扮演了三个角色。是的，我们与Tom的看法有所不同。

So Bitcoin serves three roles. And, yes, we would differ with

我知道你和Tom相处得很好。

I know you get on very well with Tom.

确实如此。确实如此。确实如此。Mike。

And we do. We do. We do. Do. Bit, Mike.

是的，没错。比特币的三大角色。正如我所说，比特币是全球货币体系。基于规则，确切地说是数量规则，仅这一点就是个非常宏大的构想。

Yes. Yes. So the three roles. Bitcoin, as I mentioned, is the global monetary system. Rules based, quantity rule to be sure, and that alone is a very big idea.

它同时也是一项技术。作为第一层区块链技术，从未被黑客攻破过。其他区块链可不敢这么说，对吧？正因如此，货币体系才以它为基础。

It is also a technology. So, layer one blockchain technology never been hacked. The other blockchains cannot say that. Right? And and so that's why the monetary system is is based on it.

它还是新资产类别的开创者。我们在2016年2月就此发布了首份白皮书。作为新型资产类别，它具有三大重要属性。我认为以太坊正在扮演重要角色，因此其原生货币以太币在DeFi生态系统中举足轻重。

And it is the first of its kind in a new asset class. We we wrote our first white paper on that in 02/2016. So a new asset class. So it's it's got three very important attributes to it. I do think that Ethereum is playing a very important role, and therefore Ether, the the the native currency, in the DeFi ecosystem.

大量手续费正流向第二层解决方案。比如Robinhood宣布将效仿Coinbase推出自己的第二层网络Base。它们攫取了不成比例的手续费。现在的问题是，未来第二层网络会多到彼此竞争，反而凸显第一层的重要性吗？

A lot of the fees are going to the layer twos. Robinhood, for example, announced that it was going to start its own layer two like Coinbase has. It's called Base. They get a disproportionate amount of the fees. Now the question is, are there gonna be so many layer twos out there that, they're going to start competing against one another and confer more importance to the layer one?

这种可能性确实存在，这也是我们投资以太币的原因。我们确实认为它驱动着DeFi世界。但这些竞争关系或许值得我和汤姆稍加探讨。

That is a possibility, and that is why we're invested in ether, and we do think it powers the DeFi world. But I think these competing interests are are maybe something that Tom and I can debate a little bit.

你们之间的辩论总是很精彩。每次都是。

You and and they're always great debates Yes. When you have them.

友好交流嘛。

Friendly.

我知道你是比特大陆的买家，

And I know you're a buyer of of Bitmain,

绝对没错。他担任主席的公司

the Absolutely. Company he's

。那么，你是否还相信其他一长列的加密货币，还是实际上只认可少数几种？

chair of. What what about is there a long list of other cryptocurrencies that you're you believe in, or is it actually a handful only?

目前确实只认可少数几种。

It's really only a handful so far.

具体是哪几种呢？

Which are the other ones?

嗯，当然有比特币。在我们的公开基金中，这些交易是公开的，所以我可以告诉你我们的持仓包括比特币、以太坊？我们终于从监管角度找到了一种可接受的方式来参与以太坊，我们选择了比特大陆的浸入式方案。此外，索拉纳是第三种，我们也可以谈谈它在其中的角色。

Well, of course, we've got Bitcoin. Coin. Now in our public funds, these trades are public, so I can I can tell you our exposures are bitcoin, ether? We're finally able to get an acceptable from a regulator's point of view, a way to play ether, and we chose Bitmina Immersion. And in the, and then Solana is the third one, and and we can talk about that as well in terms of its role.

至于索拉纳，是通过布雷拉体育公司运作的。大家都以为我或Arc收购了一堆体育团队，其实并没有。这家公司正在整合索拉纳的国库资金，并得到阿联酋、中东地区以及我的导师、顾问兼朋友阿特·拉弗的支持，他也在董事会任职。所以这非常有趣。以上就是三大主力。Hyperliquid是新秀，我们正观望其发展，这很令人兴奋。

That one, is through well, it's Brera Sports, and everybody thinks I I or Arc just bought bought a bunch of sports teams, which we did not. This is the company, into which Soulmate is a Solana treasury is being folded and supported by, The UAE, Middle Eastern, and my mentor, our adviser, and my friend Art Laffer is on the board of that one, So so that's been very interesting. So those are the big three. Hyperliquid is the new kid on the block, and, we're waiting to see how how that all plays out. It's it's exciting.

这让我想起了早期的Solana，而Solana已经证明了自己的价值，现在跻身主流之列。我们认为这些项目具备潜力，当然还包括其他服务如货币市场基金、Uniswap以及JITO等与Solana生态相关的项目。我们会参与某些衍生品交易，但若论及主流项目，目前这三个是当之无愧的巨头。

It reminds me of Solana in in the earlier days, and Solana has proven its worth and is, you know, there with the big boys. So those those we think are and then, of course, there are other services of a like Money Market Fund and Uniswap and and a few like that, JITO, which is related to the the Solana, ecosystem. So we will play certain derivatives, but if you're talking about the the big boys or girls, those those those are the big three right now.

由于时间所剩无几，最后我想请教您对黄金的看法——今天提出这个问题恰逢其时。黄金白银价格大幅上涨（我们是在本周一录制的节目），而比特币和以太坊在45分钟前开始对话时还处于大幅下跌状态。这两种资产同日内出现如此同步的走势实属罕见。

And we because we're nearly out of time, I just wanted to come to to get your view in the end on on gold because it's actually a really interesting day for us to ask this question. Gold and silver are up significantly. Of course, we're recording this on Monday this week. And Bitcoin and Ethereum, forty five minutes ago when we started the conversation were down quite sharply. And it's not often that that we've seen those two trade in that same way on the same day.

您是否认为当前黄金的投资逻辑比以往更加强劲？毕竟其今年表现确实亮眼。相较于比特币，您如何看待黄金的定位？

Do you think the argument for gold is sort of stronger than ever in the I mean, clearly, the performance has been very strong this year. Where do you stand on it relative to Bitcoin?

我们并未持有黄金，但也不认为这是糟糕的投资选择。只是这不符合我们的投资理念——我们专注于技术驱动的

Well, we don't own it. And we're not saying it's gonna be a bad investment either. It's just not what we do, you know, technologically enabled

嗯。

Mhmm.

颠覆性创新。但从经济学角度出发，我始终重视黄金的走势。通常它是通胀的前兆，但这次情况不同。我们追踪的'金属-黄金指数'（金属价格与黄金价格比值）

Disruptive innovation. But with my economics hat on, I always take the performance of gold seriously. Typically, it is a harbinger of inflation. I don't think that's the case this time. We monitor something called the metals to gold index, so metal prices to gold prices.

已跌破0.8-0.9区间，这确实让我担忧：外界究竟发生了什么？可能与中国相关——他们仍在经历房地产投机引发的通缩调整。我认为本轮黄金上涨源于地缘政治风险。您应该注意到周五晚上H-1B签证引发的混乱局面吧？

That has dropped below o eight, o nine levels, and it's got me actually worried about, okay, what is going on out there? It could be related to China, and they're still going through a deflationary unwind of the property, the property speculation there. I think what's happening with gold this time around is geopolitical risk. And you'll notice on Friday night all of the chaos around h, b one visas. Right?

我认为这种不确定性简直令人震惊。所有来自印度和中国的留学生及其家长都在看着这一切，困惑不解：发生了什么？就我个人而言，这不过是与印度正在进行的一场谈判，最终会妥善解决的——因为我们不愿失去来自世界各地的顶尖人才，无论当前舆论如何喧嚣。我相信局面很快就会改变。

And I think that uncertainty it's like, oh my gosh. All of the, you know, the foreign students were, you know, from India and China and their parents and everything, looking at this saying, what? What is going on? And personally, I think it's just a negotiation with India that's going on, and this will all be fine because we don't want to lose the best and the brightest from anywhere around the world despite what, what you hear, the rhetoric you hear right now. So I think that's all going to change.

但现实是头条新闻铺天盖地，人们都在问：我该怎么办？那些拥有大量财富的老一辈人，可能正将部分资产转为黄金。他们大概率不会选择进入数字资产领域。

But it doesn't matter. The headlines are blaring, and and people are saying, okay. What do I do? And, you know, people with a lot of wealth, so maybe older generation, are maybe, you know, shifting some into gold. They're not probably putting it into into the digital asset world.

凯西，我们时间到了。虽然超时了，但能与你畅谈真是令人愉快——

Well, Kathy, we are out of time. I've taken you for for longer than we were we were meant to run. It's been such a pleasure to catch up

噢，

Oh,

感谢您亲临现场。提醒听众：完整版节目已于本周早些时候上线，这期加密专题是额外福利。下周《投资大师》播客将邀请Latitude投资管理公司创始人弗雷迪·莱特做客，敬请关注。若喜欢本期内容，请订阅并给予五星好评。

thank in person. A reminder to people that the full length episode dropped earlier in the week as well as this crypto bonus episode. Next week on the Master Investor podcast, we will be joined by Freddie Late, the founder of Latitude Investment Management. Make sure to tune in, for that one. And if you've enjoyed the conversation, please do subscribe and leave us a five star review.

再次声明：本播客内容不构成直接财务建议，详情参见节目备注。《投资大师》由Paradine制作公司与Master Investor播客有限公司联合BirdLyme传媒出品。欢迎在YouTube订阅或在播客平台点击关注，即可获取新集更新提醒。下周我们将与弗雷迪·莱特再会。

A reminder that nothing you've heard on the Master Investor Podcast should be considered direct financial advice. More on that in our show notes if you'd like to see it. The master investor podcast is produced by Paradine Productions and Master Investor Podcast Limited in association with BirdLyme Media. If you've enjoyed the podcast, please do subscribe on YouTube or click follow on your podcast platform, and then you'll be automatically notified each time a new episode drops. Next week, we'll be with Freddie Late.

最后，特别感谢凯西·伍德女士参与两期节目的录制，衷心感谢您！

Once again, a double thanks for two episodes with Kathy Wood. Thank you so much.

哦，谢谢你，威尔弗雷德。这很有趣。

Oh, thank you, Wilfred. It was fun.