丹·艾夫斯：如何挑选划时代的科技赢家

我会说，你不可能在电子表格里找到人工智能。

I'd say you can't find AI in the spreadsheets.

我认为在某种程度上，估值确实重要，但我的整个观点是，如果你只关注估值，那你过去二十年就错过了每一个具有变革性增长的股票。

I I I think to some extent, you have to valuation's important, but my whole view is, like, if you focus just on valuation, you've missed every transformational growth stock the last twenty years.

世界上有一款芯片正在推动人工智能革命。

There is one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution.

它由人工智能之父领导。

It's led by the godfather of AI.

他穿着一件黑色皮夹克。

He's wearing a black leather jacket.

他叫杰森。

His name's Jensen.

他太酷了。

He's badass.

但归根结底，首先，杰森在2021年和2022年遭遇了重创。

But it goes back to like, first of all, Jensen, 2021, 2022, getting crushed.

你为什么投资人工智能？

Why are you investing in AI?

你是一家游戏公司。

You're a gaming company.

你押注于创新者。

You bet on the innovators.

你押注于首席执行官。

You bet on the CEOs.

我认为这一点在我们选股时也非常重要。

And I think that's also very important, like, in terms of how we pick stocks.

散户在决策中拥有巨大话语权。

Retail has a huge seat at the table.

我认为这导致了在四月份，散户持有股票，而机构却抛售了。

I think what that's done is that, like in April, they held stocks, institutional sold it.

你会看到像特斯拉、Robinhood这样的公司，有时还有英伟达、Palantir。

You'll get names like Tesla, Robinhood, I think at times, Nvidia, Palantir.

散户一直领先于机构。

Retail has been head of institutional.

现实是，特斯拉最大的资产是马斯克。

The reality is, like, the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk.

特斯拉就是马斯克。

Tesla is Musk.

马斯克就是特斯拉。

Musk is Tesla.

但我认为，这是特斯拉成长史上最重要的篇章。

But this is the most important chapter, I think, ever in Tesla's growth story.

自动驾驶机器人功能。

The autonomous robotics feature.

我认为你又看到了一位战时CEO。

And I think you're seeing a wartime CEO again.

因此，我认为在未来，特斯拉将由马斯克在未来十二到十八个月内的作为来定义。

And that's why I think in the future, you know, Tesla will be defined by what Musk does over the next twelve to eighteen months.

欢迎收听《大师投资者》播客，我是威尔弗雷德·弗罗斯特，我们将庆祝并学习全球最杰出投资者、商业领袖和政治家的成功经验，为各位听众提供优势。

Welcome to the Master Investor podcast with me, Wilfred Frost, where we celebrate and learn from the success of the greatest investors, business leaders, and politicians in the world, giving you, our listeners, the edge.

《大师投资者》播客由盈透证券赞助。

The Master Investor podcast is sponsored by Interactive Brokers.

请记住，本播客中表达的观点仅用于一般信息目的。

Please do remember the views expressed in this podcast are for general informational purposes only.

播客中的任何内容均不构成金融推广、投资建议或个人推荐。

Nothing in the podcast constitutes a financial promotion, investment advice, or a personal recommendation.

更多详情请见节目说明。

More on that in the show notes.

今天我的嘉宾是丹·艾维斯，他是韦德布什证券的董事总经理兼高级股票研究分析师。

My guest today, Dan Ives, is managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities.

自2018年以来，他一直负责该公司对科技行业的研究覆盖。

He's led the firm's tech coverage since 2018.

自那时起，他一直坚定不移地看多，尤其在人工智能主题上，判断更为准确。

Since then, he has been unrelentingly bullish correctly, in particular on the AI theme even more correctly.

他之所以能做到这一点，是因为毫不掩饰地做自己，不仅敢于做出大胆的预测，还以大胆的着装风格著称，尽管他待人接物极为谦逊有礼。

And he's done it by being unapologetically himself, not just bold calls but bold clothes albeit offset by his very gracious way.

通过这种方式，我认为他实际上提升了韦德布什这家相对较小的公司。

And in doing so, I would argue has elevated a relatively small firm in Wedbush in the process.

他还是Ives ETF的创始人和ORBS的主席，我们稍后也会谈到这两家公司。

He's also the founder of Ives ETF and the chairman of ORBS, both of which we will get to as well.

丹，我的朋友，欢迎来到《顶级投资者》播客。

Dan, my friend, welcome to the Master Investor podcast.

很好

Great

能来到这里真好。

to be here.

非常高兴能来到这里，亲爱的。

So excited to be here, dear.

非常高兴。

So excited.

我们俩在过去的十分钟里都迫不及待想开始了，当时我们正在调整摄像机。

We've both been itching to start in the last ten minutes of we as we've been framing up the cameras.

你一如既往地穿着得体。

You are dressed appropriately as ever.

嗯。

Mhmm.

我在准备这次访谈之前才意识到，你现在也有自己的服装品牌了，这个我们稍后会聊到，还有所有这些细节。

And I hadn't realized until prepping for this, you have your own clothing line now as well, which we're gonna get to and and all of those details a little bit later.

但见到你真好。

But it's it's great to see you.

很高兴在伦敦见到你，一如既往地喜欢你的穿着。

Great to see you in London and love the attire as always.

正如我提到的，自从我认识你以来，你一直对科技板块持看涨态度，几乎贯穿了整个时期。

As I mentioned there, you've been bullish on tech, your sector pretty much throughout the period that well, totally throughout the period since I've known you.

在过去十年或九年左右的时间里，在Wedbush工作期间，当你在讨论整个板块时，有没有哪一刻你曾暂停过，思考我们需要重新评估对这一板块的长期看涨观点？还是说，坚持这一观点对你来说一直很轻松？

Has there been any moments in the last decade or nine years or whatever it's been at Wedbush when you've paused as we talk about the sector as a whole and you've thought we need to really reevaluate our long term bull thesis on this or has it been quite an easy call for you to stick to?

我的意思是，从九十年代末就开始覆盖科技股了，对吧？

I mean look, covering tech stocks since like late nineties, right?

我的意思是，你可以说一直是看多，但确实也有过黑暗时刻，对吧？

I mean so like you could say permabullish, but look, there have been dark moments, right?

我的意思是，当然经历了互联网泡沫和金融危机。

I mean, obviously going through dot com bubble, financial crisis.

但我觉得回顾过去几年，关税问题上的“解放日”真是一个让人捏把汗的时刻。

But I think when I look back at the last few years, look, Liberation Day in terms of the tariff issue, that was a huge white knuckle moment.

对我来说，那是一个考验内心的关键时刻，因为那是个分岔路口，结果要么这样，要么那样。

And that was something like for me, that was like a gut check moment because that was a fork in the road and it was gonna go one way or another.

而且，你知道的，

And obviously, you know,

不过我们先暂停一下，因为我记得听过我们朋友丹·纳森在《风险逆转》播客上的访谈。

it Well, let's just pause on that quickly because I remember listening to our friends Dan Nathan at Risk Reversal podcast.

你在关税宣布后一两天就上了那个节目，当时你因为不仅担心自己对股票的判断，更担心这对整个美国可能造成的后果，真的非常沮丧。

You went on that like a day or two after the the tariffs were announced and you were really broken at the thought, not just about your calls on stocks, about what it could do to America as a whole.

你只是觉得这是个错误的决定。

You just thought it the wrong call.

这更多是作为一个美国公民，而不是作为分析师的感受。

That was more as a US citizen than as an analyst.

因为我这样的人每年去亚洲四次，整个职业生涯都在关注科技行业。

Because it's someone like myself that goes to Asia four times a year, covered tech my whole career.

我明白这些关税可能带来的影响。

I understood, like, those tariffs, what potentially that could do.

那会把美国科技产业直接斩断。

That would have cut US tech off at the knees.

在那段时间，我去了华盛顿四五次，和许多政界人士沟通，试图让他们明白：我理解你们想做什么。

Went down DC four or five times during that period, me and many politicians trying to drill in like, look, I understand what you're trying to do here.

但这并不是正确的做法。

This is not the right way to do it.

我认为，显然最终事情解决了，但那是冷静理智战胜了冲动，那确实是一个非常关键的时刻。

And I think, obviously it ended, but it's cooler heads prevailed, but that was a very like gut check moment.

对我们来说，你不能只在纽约或伦敦办公楼的25层来评判科技行业。

And look for us it's like you can't call tech from the 25th Floor of a New York City or London office building.

你必须亲临现场。

You gotta be feet on the street.

我认为，过去二十五年里我积累了三百五十万英里的飞行里程，这就是原因。

And I think that's why look, three and a half million air miles the last twenty five years.

我能够做到这些，我想这一直是我们的优势。

I've been able to do I think that's been our advantage.

我和你认识很久了，你知道，在很多时期，很容易只是搞一场群众表演。

Me and you know each other for a long time, you know I think there have been so many periods where it's very easy of firing a crowd theater.

真正让我们有信心的，是我们所做的事情。

It's really our work that we do that's given us confidence.

所以，从最近这段时间来看，自从2018年你加入韦德布什以来，你是否不得不忽略估值？

So in terms of the kind of more recent period of time since Wedbush twenty eighteen when you joined there, I mean, have you had to ignore valuation?

也许‘忽略’这个词太强烈了，但我猜，你的一项成功或许就在于，没有像许多其他股票分析师那样过分看重估值。

Maybe ignore is too strong a word, but I guess one of your successes perhaps has come from not weighting valuation as highly as many other equity analysts.

你看，你确实能在电子表格里找到人工智能的踪迹。

Look, would, yeah, I'd say you can find AI in the spreadsheets.

我认为在某种程度上，估值很重要，但我的整体观点是，如果你只关注估值，那你过去二十年就错过了每一个具有变革性增长的股票。

I think to some extent you have to Valuation's important, but my whole view is like if you focus just on valuation, you've missed every transformational growth stock the last twenty years.

你必须能够展望三、四、五年，才能真正建立起对它未来走向的判断。

You have to be able to look out three, four, five years to really build a thesis to where you think that's going.

我认为这可能就是我们哲学上的观点：你必须专注于技术，以及最终我们所谓的看涨情景可能走向何方。

And I think that has probably been, you know, philosophically our view is that you gotta focus on the tech, and where ultimately sort of we'll call it a bull case scenario could go.

但同时，也要亲自做工作，比如与亚洲的首席信息官们沟通，确保验证实际情况——要知道，你可能会错过一个季度，股价也可能与你预期相反。

But also, it's doing work yourself, CIOs in Asia, to make sure and validate where it's like, know what, you can miss a quarter, stock could go against you.

但与许多卖方分析师不同，他们一有风吹草动就蜂拥而上下调股票，而当你有明确的判断时，就应该保持冷静和坚定。

But as opposed to so many sell siders, you know, where it's kinda like they all head for the elevators downgrade stock, it's kinda like steady hands when you have a sort of thesis.

你提到一个非常有趣的观点，你说你无法在电子表格中发现这些赢家。

So you said something really interesting that you said, you know, you can't spot these winners in a spreadsheet.

那你是不是得靠直觉去发现它们？

Do you have to spot them in your gut?

你得认为这是未来五年内的赢家吗？

Do you have to think this is the winner of the next five years?

还是说除了这个之外，还有更具体的东西？

Or is there something more tangible than just that?

还是说这一点非常重要？

Or is that very important?

不。

No.

我觉得部分原因是我押注于领导者，对吧？

I think part of it is like I bet on leaders, right?

就像你知道十年前的马斯克一样。

Like you know, it's like it's knowing Musk, you know, back a decade ago.

是了解杰ensen，是魏苏苏，是南德拉，是卡尓。

It's it's knowing Jensen, it's Wei Sisu, it's Nandela, it's Carr.

我的意思是，Palantir 是一个很好的例子。

I mean I think Palantir is a good example.

就像了解卡普，理解Palantir，股票价格只有10美元左右，我就觉得这将成为一个时代的名字。

Like knowing Carp, understanding Palantir, stocks like $10 or whatever, and I'm like this is gonna be a generation name.

到了那个时候，人们的仇恨邮件简直疯狂。

Now people at that point, I mean the hate mail was pretty insane.

你因为这个收到了仇恨邮件？

You got hate mail from that?

哦，来自机构投资者的，你怎么会押注Palantir？这是我见过最糟糕的判断之一。

Oh, from from institutional investors, how could you bet on Palantir, this is one of the worst calls I've ever seen.

但我的观点是，Palantir将从企业角度改变世界。

But my view is like Palantir is gonna change the world from an enterprise perspective.

这不仅是押注领导者，也是理解其文化、技术，并亲自去做研究。

It was betting on the leaders, but also it's understanding the culture, the technology, and it's doing the work yourself.

我认为这一点很重要，如果回顾我们职业生涯中的苹果、特斯拉、英伟达、微软等投资，有时就是逆流而行。

And I think that's something where I think that's probably been like, if I look back in our career from the Apple calls and Tesla and Vidy and Microsoft and others, it's sometimes like going against the grain.

你看，纳德拉在2014年接管了微软。

Like look, Nadella takes over Microsoft 2,014.

他们的看法是，灾难性的。

The view is like, disaster.

怎么可能让一个内部人士来当领导？

Like, how could you have an internal guy?

但了解他以及他打算做什么，我觉得他会彻底颠覆一切。

But just knowing him and what he was gonna do, I'm like, he's gonna rip the carpet up.

我想聊聊个股。

I wanna talk about individual stocks.

也许我们稍后再回来看这个，我觉得他被低估了。

Maybe we'll come back to this, I think he's underpriced.

他可能是最出色的首席执行官。

He's perhaps the best CEO there is.

我的意思是，我们谈的是名人堂级别的人物，他在微软所做的一切，简直可以载入史册。

I mean, we're talking hall of famer, he's really almost to me, what he's done in Microsoft, it's for the history books.

尤其是考虑到他接手前微软内部的官僚体制，而他本身就是一个内部人士。

Especially understanding the red tape and what was at Microsoft before he took over, and he was an internal guy.

他基本上迅速改变了这家公司，我认为我们还远未进入AI时代，还没到AI革命的时候。

He basically like, he rapidly changed that company, And I'd argue we're not at AI, we're not in the AI revolution.

当然，杰ensen，你知道他是AI之父，但如果不是纳德拉在2023年初就认识到OpenAI的发展方向，也不会有今天。

Of course Jensen, you know, being the godfather of AI, if it's not for Nadella recognizing OpenAI back to early two thousand twenty three in terms of where it was heading.

这些具体细节我们稍后再深入探讨，但先从宏观角度来质疑一下对这一主题的乐观情绪。

Lots to get to in those specifics which we'll dive into, but big picture to kind of question the bullishness overall on the theme.

在我还在CNBC工作的时候，大约三四年前离开，你总是说，我觉得现在不是1999年，而是1995年，我们还有好几年的AI相关扩张期，才可能进入泡沫阶段。

Back in my CNBC days, left three or four years ago, you always used to say, I don't think it's 1999, I think it's 1995, that we still got quite a few years of the AI related expansion before you might get into bubble territory.

我现在观察和聆听你的所有评论，发现你稍微调整了这个说法，但你现在说的是1996年。

What I find really interesting watching and listening to all your commentary now, you've changed that slightly, but you say 1996.

但我们已经过了四年了。

But we've had four years.

所以，我想请你回应一下我的疑虑：你之前说1995年，到现在已经三四年了，难道不更接近1999年了吗？

So so just I I guess answer my skepticism there and that, you know, you could look at it another way and say, since you said it was 1995, three we're or four years, isn't that isn't that closer to '99 now?

当然。

Sure.

而且对我来说，作为经历过科技泡沫的分析师，我见证了1998年、1999年和2000年。

And also I'd say like for someone like myself, like that went through the tech bubble as an analyst saw '98, '99, 2000.

这里发生的情况是，如果从狗年角度来衡量，目前只有3%的美国公司走上了AI之路。

What's happening here is that like, if you think about almost like dog years, right, in terms of as it's playing out, only 3% of US companies have gone down the AI path.

所以我才说现在是1996年这样的时刻，而不是1998年或1999年，因为美国只有3%的公司开始涉足AI。

So the reason I say it's a 96 moment, maybe I'm not calling like a 98 moment or 99, it's because only 3% of companies in The US have gone down.

欧洲，为零。

Europe, zero.

亚洲（除中国外），为零。

Asia ex China, zero.

主权国家才刚刚开始行动，比如中东地区；而且三十年来，美国首次在科技领域领先于中国。

Sovereigns are just starting to go in terms of Middle East and every and for the first time in thirty years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.

我认为这至关重要，因为这涉及英伟达、超大规模云服务商以及应用场景。

And I think that's so important because it's Nvidia, it's the hyperscalers, it's the use cases.

我们曾说过，这场AI派对晚上9点开始，现在是10点半，派对会持续到凌晨4点。

And we've said like, this AI party started 9PM, it's now 10:30PM, party goes to 4AM.

不过，在这场派对中，DJ可能会停止播放音乐，舞池的玻璃可能也会被砸碎，有人或许会试图来搅局。

Now again, in that party, DJ could stop playing music, glass in the dance floor, maybe come try to break up the party.

但空头们会从外面透过窗户观察这场派对。

But the bears will watch that party from the outside through the windows.

多头和空头在早上6点碰面，多头狠狠地嘲讽空头。

Bulls and bears meet up at 6AM, bulls hell out bear night and the bears.

我已经很久没熬过晚上10点了，我有点害怕。

I haven't stayed up past 10PM for a long time, I'm afraid.

早间节目就是会让人这样。

Breakfast shows will do that to you.

但我很喜欢这个比喻。

But I love the analogy.

我们先聊聊那些超大规模云服务商吧。

Let's talk about some of those hyperscalers maybe first.

很明显，搜索领域是谷歌赢者通吃。

Clearly, it came to search, Google winner takes all.

如果我们谈论一下，我知道这还有其他层面，但就目前消费者与AI的互动方式而言，大型语言模型会是赢家通吃吗？

If we talk about and I know there's other levels to it, but the large language models, the way consumers are at the moment engaging with AI, is that gonna be winner takes all?

目前谁处于领先地位？

Who's in the lead at the moment?

你是否担心，再次强调，这可能是短期内的回调，因为这四五家公司的价值累积得很高，但它们的收入却少得可怜？

And do you worry, again, might be one of the short term pullbacks about the value that has accreted across four or five of these companies with very little revenues to share between them?

是的。

Yeah.

我认为从超大规模的角度来看，我们甚至可以说，如今不到50%的工作负载在云端。

I think when you demand from a hyperscale perspective, so let's just even said it, Less than 50% of workloads are in the cloud today.

这说明了我们甚至还没谈到AI。

So it just shows you we're not even talking about AI.

不到50%的工作负载在云端。

Less than 50% in the cloud.

当你想到AI时，据说只有大约3%的算力在美国已经部署了。

When you think about AI, only call it you know, we talk about 3% that have gone across The US.

当你观察这些超大规模云服务商时，它们仍处于非常早期的阶段。

When you look at these hyperscalers, they're still super early days.

现在，微软是在自己的主场作战。

Now Microsoft, it's their backyard.

企业市场是他们的领域，他们本应稳操胜券。

Like the enterprise, like this is their game to lose.

谷歌和亚马逊，从外部来看，正在迅速缩小差距。

Google, Amazon, you can say outside looking in, now significantly closing the gap.

将有3万亿美元被投入其中。

3,000,000,000,000 that's gonna be spent.

这笔钱足够让每个人分一杯羹。

That's a lot to go around for everyone.

但请记住，超大规模云服务商就像一栋房子的地基。

But remember, the hyper scarers, think about like a stack, foundation of a house.

那就是地基。

That's the foundation.

但真正的赢家也将出现在应用场景中，比如Palantir、Snowflake、MongoDB，Oracle的位置在哪里？网络安全、基础设施、CoreWeave、Nebius，以及其他公司，比如PowerPlays。

But the true winners too, they're gonna be on the use cases, names like, you know, Palantir, Snowflake, MongoDB, where does Oracle sit, Cybersecurity, infrastructure, CoreWeave, Nebius, others, PowerPlays.

事实上，我们估算，每在英伟达芯片上花费一美元，整个科技行业其他领域就会产生8到10美元的乘数效应。

Look, the reality is that for every dollar spent on an NVIDIA chip, we estimate there's an 8 to $10 multiplier across the rest of tech.

所以我不认为这是赢家通吃的局面。

So I don't think it's a winner take all.

我认为这是一场会出现大量第二、第三、第四梯队玩家的竞赛，正因如此，我们相信这场科技牛市至少还能持续两年以上。

I think this is one where like you're gonna have a lot of the second, third, fourth derivatives but that's why we believe at least two more years left in this tech bull market.

当我们看到新模型发布，比如Gemini 3，或者其他什么，你们会密切关注吗？

When we see new models come out, Gemini three, this or that, how closely do you watch that?

你们会不会想，哇，他们现在领先了，我得改变看法？还是说只要大家都在持续进步，我们就没问题？

Do you think, oh wow, they're now in the lead, I'm gonna change my thinking or is it like as long as all of them keep improving then we're okay?

换个说法，如果OpenAI独立上市，不考虑与微软的合作，你会因为Gemini等对手的进步而突然变得看空吗？

I guess another way of putting that is if OpenAI was listed on its own, forget the Microsoft partnership, would you be suddenly a little bit bearish relative to the gains the likes of Gemini are making?

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我们一直大力看好谷歌，根本原因就是我们认为Gemini会很特别。

I mean, to me, like the whole reason we're we've been like pounding the table on Google is the view that Gemini was gonna be special.

我觉得你可以回溯到今年早些时候，当时伦敦的出租车司机对谷歌持悲观态度。

And I think it's one of you go back to earlier this year, the London cab driver's bearish on Google.

但他们展示出的是，Gemini是真实的，它是一个改变游戏规则的产品。

But what they've shown is Gemini's real, it's a game changer.

但我并不认为，有些部分你可以说它为谷歌股价增加了56美元。

But I don't view it, Look, some of the parts you could argue it adds $56 a share to Google stock.

但OpenAI，我依然相信，如果OpenAI今天独立上市，它将是一个真正价值万亿美元的公司。

But OpenAI, I still believe OpenAI went public today, it's a trillion dollar market of the Legitimately.

加上Jim。

With Jim.

原因在于，这不仅仅是关于Chad GPT，而是他们本质上将构建一个完整的AI技术栈。

And the reason is is that it's not just about Chad, GPT, it's about like the view that they're essentially gonna build a full stack when it comes to AI.

但我并不认为Gemini的强势表现会对OpenAI造成巨大的负面影响。

But I don't view it where Gemini comes through huge super negative for all men open AI.

我认为，要让这场革命真正落地，需要多种模型。

I view it as for this revolution to take hold, you need many models.

你需要在中国的模型。

You need miles in China.

模型的成本会越来越低。

Miles are gonna get cheaper and cheaper.

数据仍然是我认为成功的关键所在。

The data continues to be, I think, where a lot of that success is gonna be.

那么，在这场大规模牛市的另一端，英伟达呢？

What about on the on the other side of this massive bull run, NVIDIA?

它们现在是否首次面临真正的竞争，比如谷歌芯片、博通、AMD？

Do they now, for the first time, have real genuine competition, whether it's Google chips, Broadcom, AMD?

我刚从亚洲回来，待了三周。

Look, just getting back from Asia there three weeks for three weeks.

英伟达芯片的需求与供给比例是12比1。

Demand and supply is 12 to one for NVIDIA chips.

我的意思是，看吧，这是他们的世界，其他人都是在交租。

I mean, look, it's their world, everyone else paying rent.

现在看，会不会出现差距缩小？

Now look, will there be a narrowing?

会的。

Yeah.

但你看，他们比任何主要竞争对手都领先了四五年。

But look, they're four or five years ahead of any major competitor.

现在你看看谷歌的TPU，华为、AMD和其他公司会发生什么，它们都会受益。

Now, you look at Google TPU, what's happened with Huawei, AMD, others are gonna benefit.

但这也正是英伟达需要进入中国市场的原因，因为在我看来，如果你不让他们进入中国市场，只会让中国更强，让华为更强，让国内竞争更激烈。

But that's also why Nvidia needs access to the China market, given what I view is like, you don't give them access to China, it just makes China stronger, makes Huawei stronger, makes domestic competition stronger.

但世界上有一款芯片正在推动人工智能革命，它由人工智能之父领导，他穿着黑色皮夹克，名字叫詹森。

But there is one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution, it's led by the godfather of AI, he's wearing a black leather jacket, his name's Jensen.

他太酷了。

He's badass.

但关键是，这要追溯到2021年、2022年，詹森当时惨遭打击，你为什么还要投资人工智能？

Look, but the thing is, but it goes back to like, first of all, Jensen, 2021, 2022, getting crushed, why are you investing in AI?

你是一家游戏公司。

You're a gaming company.

这又回到了老话题，如果你回溯历史，比如2008年，iPhone只不过会被当成一款一年就过时的AT&T智能手机。

And it goes back to like, those are the same again, if you go back historically, right, it's like 2008, iPhone is just gonna be a one year AT and T smartphone.

2014年，纳德拉，你为什么要把微软变成一家云公司？

2014, Nadella, why are you trying to turn Microsoft into a cloud player?

2013年、2014年，马斯克。

2013, 2014, Musk.

哥们，电动汽车根本不可能成功。

Dude, there's no way electric vehicles are gonna work.

你看。

Look.

这归根结底，就是你要押注创新者。

It goes back to, like, you bet on the innovators.

你投资的是首席执行官。

You bet on the CEOs.

我认为这同样非常重要，尤其是在我们选股时。

And I think that's also very important, like, in terms of how we pick stocks.

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我想就你提到的几只股票暂停一下，比如谷歌、微软、英伟达、福特P，它们在你的数据中分别处于什么水平？

I just wanna pause on a couple of things with the stocks you mentioned so far, which is what know, pick pick out Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Ford P, what are they on in in your numbers?

因为again，我们以前聊天时，有些市盈率确实相当吓人。

Because again, some of the moments when we've used to chat, like there was some pretty terrifying PEs.

但现在没那么糟糕了。

They're not that bad anymore.

我的意思是，英伟达确实已经用增长消化了它的估值倍数。

I mean like Nvidia certainly has grown into its multiples.

按常规指标来看，它的倍数并不便宜，但也没那么贵。

It's it's not a cheap multiple by typical metrics but it's not not that expensive.

对吧？

Right?

而且市场对真实增长的预期可能低估了大约25%到30%，没考虑到实际数字会达到什么水平。

And the streets underestimating true growth probably by about 25, 30% in terms of where numbers are really gonna go.

所以你提到的12个月平均科技公司，目前市盈率是27倍。

So what's your 12 The month average tech company is trading at 27 times earnings.

在泡沫时期，是30倍的收入。

In the bubble, 30 times revenue.

所以当我看英伟达时，230到250这个区间在我看来是基准情况。

So when I look at Nvidia, two thirty to two fifty as this I view it as like base case.

从它的估值来看，这个倍数是多少？

In terms of its what's that put on what multiple?

这意味着，对于一家几乎单枪匹马推动人工智能革命的公司来说，估值达到了二十多倍的高位。

And I mean, that would be like a high 20 multiple for basically a company that's the one ship fueling the AI revolution.

这就是为什么人们会认为存在科技泡沫。

And that's why it comes down to like, the view like there's like a tech bubble.

最优秀的私营公司甚至还没有上市。

The best private companies haven't even gone public yet.

这些股票，好吧，相对于历史水平来说贵吗？

These stocks, okay, are they expensive relative to historical?

是的。

Yeah.

但增长是四倍。

But the growth is four x.

未来三年的增长将超过过去十年的总和。

You have more growth over the next three years than you had in the last ten years combined.

所以我的观点是，只有两种人。

So so my view is just like there's two types of people.

这就像1950年去拉斯维加斯。

It would be like 1950 is going to Vegas.

我告诉你，好吧，我们要建拉斯维加斯大道。

I tell you, okay, we're gonna build the strip, Vegas.

这就是未来。

This is the future.

但可能有人会说，这不过是沙漠，你连机场都建不起来，根本做不成事。我只是想说，你必须真正相信这一点，因为我的观点是自动驾驶和人形机器人。

Then there could be someone else be like, it's desert, like either you're not gonna have an airport here, you're not gonna be able to do So I'm just saying like, I I think that's really essentially you have to believe, because my view is autonomous, humanoid robotics.

这些正是我们看到的未来方向。

Like that those are some of the things that we see in the future.

我想再聊聊几个关于市场上看空观点的问题。

So I wanna just touch off on a couple more of the ask you about a couple more of the bearish arguments that out there.

有人以Meta为例，指出许多知名的成功对冲基金经理在财报中质疑，他们将这些AI投资分摊的年限是否过长，以及这是否在人为推高其收益——并非因为他们没有开发正确的产品，而是他们必须比分摊周期更早地购买最新的NVIDIA芯片。

And one brings in meta as an example which is from a lot of the high profile successful short hedge fund managers have been questioning in their accounts how long they're amortizing all of this AI investment over and and whether in fact it's it's artificially boosting their earnings because not so much that they're not building the right products, but they have to buy the next best NVIDIA chips much sooner than than they're amortizing over.

这有道理吗？

Is is there truth to that?

也就是说，NVIDIA的创新如此强大，以至于每个人每两年都得重新投入一次，而不是每四年？

IE, NVIDIA's innovation is so great that everyone's gonna have to spend the same amount again every two years, not every four years?

再次强调，我们得看看这一切最终如何发展。

Again, we gotta see I guess it all plays out.

但同时，很多空头所做的数学推演也值得怀疑，或许是因为其他一些观点并没有兑现。

But also like the mathematical gymnastics that a lot of the shorts have done because maybe other, you know, theses have not sort of panned out.

我明白，但现实是，对于Meta来说，扎克伯格现在就像战时CEO。

I get it, but the reality is, like, for what's like a meta, Zuck's wartime CEO now.

鉴于他们要如何变现这30亿用户，他们必须 aggressively 投入，别无选择。

They have to aggressively spend, no choice, given how they're gonna monetize their 3,000,000,000 users.

当你开始思考盈利情况，以及这是否被高估，这一切又将如何展开时？

When you start thinking about earnings and how that's gonna is it overstated and how it's all doing play out?

我的观点是，当你展望未来三到四年，看看纳斯达克指数达到26000、28000点时，至少我认为这场科技牛市还能再持续两年。

I mean, well, in my view, like, when you look out in the next three, four years, when we look at Nasdaq, twenty six thousand, twenty eight thousand, like, you know, believe, like, in two more years left in this tech bull market at least.

我只是觉得，相对于巨大的增长机会，很多看法都过于短视了。

I just think a lot of that is shortsighted relative to the massive growth opportunities.

而且，这又回到了你提到的那些空头观点。

And again, it goes back to like some of the shorts that you talk about.

在纽约市办公楼的25层做空，确实很容易。

It's easy to be a short from the 25th Floor of a New York City office building.

我想看看那些空头，如果他们像我们一样在台湾的晶圆厂里，看到需求是供给的12倍，那对我来说，这个逻辑依然成立。

I wanna see those shorts if they're at fabs in Taiwan like we are, and they see demand 12 x oversupply, that to me continues to be the thesis.

好的。

Okay.

我还听过另一个看空的观点，来自一个对这个领域非常了解的人。

One other bear case I've heard from someone who who is plugged into this sort of stuff.

有趣的是，你提到了云计算中计算资源所占的比例，但在这方面还有很长的路要走。

I mean, it's funny how you mentioned the percentage of compute that's in the cloud and there's still a long way to go there.

你如何回应那些认为这一趋势可能逆转的人？

What do you say to people who suggest that trend could turn?

随着我们越来越多地使用人工智能并共享更多私人数据，那些资金雄厚的企业或富人会希望将这些数据保留在本地。

That as we start to use AI more and we share much more of our private data that those people with deep pockets, businesses or wealthy individuals will want to keep that data on-site.

因此，计算能力将集中在你的家中或办公室里。

And so the compute power instead will be at your home or in your office.

与此相关的是，我们是否过度建设了某些数据中心容量？这显然基于一个假设，即所有东西都会迁移到云端。

And I guess linked to that is have we overbuilt some of this data center capacity which clearly is buying into the theme that everything is gonna get moved to the cloud.

如今，正在建设中的数据中心数量比现有的还要多。

Look, there's more data centers under construction today than active data centers.

我觉得列车已经出发了。

I feel like the ships left the station.

换句话说，一切都朝着这个方向发展。

Like in other words, like that, it's all heading down that path.

我并不是说不能为特定用途设置私有云或本地部署，但我认为现实是，我们恐怕会缺乏足够多的数据中心。

I'm not saying you can't have private clouds and others that are on premise for like, you know, specific use cases, But I just think the reality is like, you're like, I think we're not gonna have enough data centers.

而且我不认为数据中心会过度建设。

And there's like, I'm not of the belief that like, you're gonna overbuild data centers.

这就像九十年代末的光纤热潮，还有Aether之类的过度建设。

It's a late nineteen nineties, just like fiber and every and the overbill with Aether and everything like that.

我不这么看。

I I don't view like that.

我实际上认为，当你展望未来时，20%的汽车将实现自动驾驶，人形机器人，从健康角度看，制药、生物技术——你看看生物技术，看看政府会怎么做，我的意思是，这才刚刚开始。

I actually view it as when you think about the future, 20% of cars being autonomous, humanoid robotics, consumer from a health perspective, pharmaceutical, bi you know, you look at biotech, you look at government, how they're gonna I mean, it's just starting.

这不仅仅是关于ChatGPT，那只是冰山一角，真正的发展方向远不止于此。

It's not just about like chat, GPT, that's tip of the iceberg in terms of where it's all heading.

这让我想到我们还没讨论过的另一只大股票：苹果。

Brings me on to my next big stock that we haven't touched on yet, is Apple.

你一直是一个长期看多者，即使在今年，当苹果股价下跌时，你也劝人买入，现在它又反弹了，而这部分显然源于对iPhone销量的期待。

You've been, rightly, again, a long term bull and even including this year pushed people to buy it when it had a dip and it's bounced again and obviously part of that's on the hope of iPhone sales.

在这个AI赋能一切的世界里，是否可以说，智能手机硬件本身的重要性，已经远不如将驱动我们所有设备的AI软件了？

My question to you on that is in this world of AI empowered everything, is it fair to say that the actual smartphone handset is much less important compared to to the AI software that will power all of our devices?

那么，这让你对苹果感到担忧吗？

And with that, does that worry you about Apple or no?

是的。

Yeah.

有趣的是，多年来，每次苹果发布财报，股价下跌时，我和你都经常这样讨论苹果。

And it's funny because me and you so many times over the years, like Apple, like earnings has come out and stock could be down.

在那些时刻，很容易会想：这是不是完了？

And it's very easy in those moments to be like, is this is it?

但归根结底，还是有24亿台iOS设备，15亿部iPhone。

But it's like, it all comes down to like 2,400,000,000 iOS devices, 1,500,000,000 iPhones.

从消费者角度来看，这是全球最大规模的已安装设备基础。

It's the biggest installed base anywhere from a consumer perspective.

服务业务本身，年收入超过一千亿美元。

Services itself, over a 100,000,000,000 a year.

我认为，当谈到人工智能时，这将是苹果巨大的变现机会，但这一切都取决于他们所构建的生态系统。

I think when you think about AI, that's gonna be a huge monetization for Apple, but it all comes down to like what they've built, that ecosystem.

一旦你进入苹果生态，99.3%的人会一直留在苹果生态系统内。

What 99.3% always once you're in Apple, you stay within the Apple ecosystem.

所以我仍然认为这非常重要，但对于苹果来说，他们一直是在外面观望。

So I view it as still so very important, but for Apple, they've been on the outside looking in.

这也是为什么他们正在大幅调整其AI领导团队，我认为他们最终会与谷歌的Gemini达成独家合作。

That's also why they're changing up a lot of their AI leadership, they're ultimately, I believe with Google, Gemini, are gonna head down that path in terms of exclusive partnership.

他们会为模型收费。

They'll charge for models.

在未来一两年内，你会发现他们会对模型收费。

You look out in the next year or two, they're gonna charge for models.

这本质上将是一个苹果独家模型。

That will essentially be like an Apple exclusive model.

你可以拥有一个AI应用商店。

You can have an AI app store.

我的意思是，这就是苹果未来的方向，但归根结底，尽管重要性有所下降，还是取决于用户基数。

I mean that's the future where it's heading for Apple, but it does still come down to even though less important, it's about the install base.

蒂姆·库克在人工智能上疏忽了吗？

Did Tim Cook take his eye off the ball with AI?

我认为苹果的某些部分运作得像一辆汽车或市政机构，充满了繁文缛节。

I think there's parts of Apple that have been run like a motor vehicle, like a municipality, red tape.

猜怎么着？

Guess what?

谷歌也曾如此。

Google was there too.

我的意思是，人工智能初期本来就是谷歌的问题。

I mean, beginning AI, that was Google's problem.

他们已经对此进行了重大改变。

They've significantly changed that.

但对于苹果来说，创新不靠收购，必须经过一系列流程——你可以说他们把错误的人放在了错误的位置上，这就是为什么他们不得不痛下决心，大刀阔斧地改革。

But for Apple, innovation, not doing acquisitions, it has to go through a certain you could argue they had the wrong people in the wrong spots, which is why culture they've had to rip the band aid off, make a lot of changes.

我认为库克——我仍然相信他会担任CEO到2027年——他不会把公司交到一个AI战略尚不明朗的继任者手中。

And I think Cook, and I still believe he'll be CEO through his 2027, he's not gonna hand the keys to whoever takes over Apple with an AI strategy blowing in the wind.

这将是一个由谷歌作为合作伙伴，以及外部领导者共同推动、将此事推向新高度的明确合作。

Like this will be a defined one between Google as the partner and leaders from the outside that could take this to the next level.

我认为这就是为什么他们现在正在为明年即将发布的重要产品提前做所有准备。

And I think that's why they're doing everything right now ahead of what's gonna be the big release next year.

我想我们已经谈到了七大中的六个，那我们来聊聊最后一个——特斯拉，嗯。

I think we've touched on six of the the Mag seven, so let's hit the last one, Tesla Mhmm.

尤其是马斯克。

And Elon in particular.

在当今在世的伟大创新者中，你如何评价他的地位？

Where do you rank him in terms of the great innovators alive today?

他的注意力是否又回到了那些被一家上市公司所涵盖的众多小业务上，而不是政治，或者他商业帝国中那些未上市的部分？

And is his focus back on all of the little business interests that are captured by that one publicly listed stock as opposed to whether it's politics or also, you know, non listed parts of his business empire?

是的。

Yeah.

我可能会把他排在第一位。

I'd probably put him as number one.

我的意思是

I mean

比杰ensen还靠前？

Ahead of Jensen?

对我来说，我把他排在杰ensen前面的原因是马斯克所做的事情——扎克可能会说，如果没有马斯克，我们今天根本不会在这里。

To me, the reason I put him ahead of Jensen is what Musk has done Zach could argue like we're not here if it's not for Musk.

我的意思是杰ensen，如果你问杰ensen他认为最大的创新者是谁，我认为马斯克要么是第一，要么就在最顶尖之列，因为我们看到的移动方式的变革，不仅仅是电动汽车，还有未来自动驾驶和机器人技术的变革。

I mean Jensen And I think if you ask Jensen who he thinks the biggest innovator is, like I mean Musk is either one or up there top because what we've seen in terms of the change in mobility, what we've seen in terms of changes, not just electric vehicles, but you know really what's gonna be the future in terms of autonomous and robotics.

我认为，在马斯克参与特朗普政府期间，他经历了一段黑暗时期，品牌出了问题，注意力也偏离了核心。

I think for Musk, it was a dark period during, you know, when he was part of the Trump administration, just brand issues, taking eye off the ball.

我们谈过，他需要重新掌控局面，董事会也需要把他请回来。

We talked about, you know, sort of edicts that he needed to get back, the board needed to get him back.

因为现实是，特斯拉最大的资产就是马斯克。

Cause the reality is like the biggest asset for Tesla is Musk.

特斯拉就是马斯克，马斯克就是特斯拉。

Tesla is Musk, Musk is Tesla.

但我认为，这是特斯拉成长史上最重要的篇章。

But this is the most important chapter I think ever in Tesla's growth story.

自动驾驶和机器人技术。

The autonomous robotics feature.

我认为你又看到了一位战时CEO。

And I think you're seeing a wartime CEO again.

因此，我认为未来将由马斯克在未来十二到十八个月内的作为所定义。

And that's why I think in the future, you know, will be defined by what Musk does over the next twelve to eighteen months.

这些关键人物身上背负着巨大的压力，我想。

A lot of pressure riding on on some of those individuals, guess.

最后，关于詹森对伟大创新者的看法，你认为他会如何排名，或者你自己如何评价台积电的创始人？你有多钦佩他？

Just finally in terms of what Jensen would say about great innovators, where do you think he would rank or where do you rank the founder of TSMC and how impressed are you?

我的意思是，跟大家说说台积电（台湾半导体）对这些公司有多重要。

I mean, tell tell people a little bit about how important TSMC is, Taiwan Semiconductor to all of these companies.

我的意思是，他们是代工厂，你知道吗？想想谷歌的TPU，过去几周是谁制造的？是台积电。

I mean, they're the fab you know, it's funny when you think about like Google with the TPU like over the last few weeks, who makes that TSMC?

台积电几乎是整个供应链的心脏和肺部。

Like TSMC is basically the hearts and lungs of the whole supply chain.

这也说明了一个问题，我认为投资者低估了它们的重要性。

It also speaks to I think a part where I think investors underappreciate how important they are.

我们的ETF，也就是IVZ，里面就有它。

I mean we have like in our ETF, the IVZ out there.

台积电显然是关键玩家之一，因为他们基本上是赢家。

I mean TSMC is obviously one of the key players because they're basically a winner.

你参观过他们的晶圆厂。

And you visited their fabs.

令人难以置信地令人印象深刻。

Unbelievably impressive.

当你看到他们所建造的东西时，显然他们也会在美国，比如亚利桑那州，建造一些设施，他们玩的是不同于任何其他人的游戏。

Like for when you see what they've built and obviously, you know, they'll be building some stuff in The US as well and Arizona, they're playing a different game than anyone else.

我认为他们不会被称为垄断者，但你看，他们创造了一种极其罕见的东西。

And I think they I won't call them monopolistic, but look, they've created something that is so rare.

而且我认为，多年来他们并没有得到应有的尊重。

And I think for many years did not get the due respect that they should have.

嗯。

Mhmm.

显然，这只股票存在一些政治风险，但它显然比许多美国公司便宜得多。

Obviously there's a bit of a political risk to that stock, but it's obviously a lot cheaper than a lot of US players.

说到这一点，当我参加研讨会时，听众总是会问一些问题。

Looking to that point, when I speak at conferences, there's always like, okay, questions from the audience.

比如，如果中国入侵台湾会怎样？

It's like, well, what happens if China invades Taiwan?

归根结底，就像你因为怕有浪就一辈子不敢下海一样。

Well, it comes down to, like, you could live your whole life in these sort of I'm not going to go in the ocean because there could be a wave.

我也不开车了。

I'm not going to get in a car.

现实是，这有风险吗？

Reality is, like, it a risk?

是的。

Yeah.

但我相信，世界本身正在趋于平衡，我认为中国真正理解他们采取的是百年视角，短期内不会在台湾问题上采取任何行动。

But I just believe that like, the world even itself is out, and I think China truly understands that they play hundred year sort of views, and they're not gonna do anything in the near term around Taiwan.

我认为这是一个风险，但这是一个黑天鹅风险，你必须将其纳入你的整体投资策略中。

I think that's something where it's a risk, but I think it's a risk that like it's a black swan risk that you have to take into, I think, your broader investment thesis.

我想快速谈一下散户与机构投资者的区别。

I Wanna quickly touch on retail versus institutional.

我知道你非常看好散户投资者。

I know you're a big fan of of retail investors.

如果回溯十年前或十五年前，所有高质量的卖方研究都只面向机构投资者。

And I guess if we rerun the clock ten, fifteen years, all of the very educated sell side research only reached institutional investors.

在过去十年里，由于各种原因，这种情况已经发生了改变。

That's been opened up for all sorts of reasons over the last decade.

而现在，我们还有了人工智能。

And now we've got AI too.