地缘政治冲击手册（迈克·威尔逊，摩根士丹利）| #623

欢迎收听梅布·法伯秀，本节目专注于帮助您增值并保全财富。

Welcome to the Meb Faber Show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth.

加入我们，一起探讨投资的艺术，发掘新颖且盈利的思路，助您变得更富有、更睿智。

Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all to help you grow wealthier and wiser.

更好的投资，从这里开始。

Better investing starts here.

梅布·法伯是坎布里亚投资管理公司的联合创始人兼首席投资官。

Meb Faber is the cofounder and chief investment officer at Cambria Investment Management.

由于行业监管规定，他不会在本播客中讨论坎布里亚的任何基金。

Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria's funds on this podcast.

播客参与者表达的所有观点均为其个人意见，不代表坎布里亚投资管理公司或其关联方的观点。

All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates.

如需更多信息，请访问 cambriainvestments.com。

For more information, visit cambriainvestments.com.

管理期货历来与股票和债券的相关性较低。

Managed futures have historically kept low correlations to both stocks and bonds.

然而，许多这些策略可能复杂、不透明，难以向客户解释。

However, many of these strategies can be complex, opaque, and difficult to explain to clients.

如果你能投资于管理期货背后的核心理念，但以透明、低成本且简单的方式实现，会怎样呢？

What if you could invest in the core ideas behind managed futures but implement them in a transparent, cost effective, and simple way?

请在3月26日加入Alpha Architect团队，现场讨论Alpha Architect高通胀与通缩ETF（股票代码HIDE，H-I-D-E）如何帮助投资者利用趋势跟随理念，构建更稳健的、以证据为基础的投资组合，这些理念易于理解、透明且可及。

Join the Alpha Architect team live on March 26 to discuss how the Alpha Architect high inflation and deflation ETF, ticker symbol HIDE, H I D E, may help investors build more robust evidence based portfolios with trend following concepts that are accessible, transparent, and easy to understand.

请使用节目说明中的链接进行注册。

Use the link in the show notes to register.

欢迎回来，各位。

Welcome back, everybody.

今天，我们有一位最喜爱的嘉宾重返节目。

Today, we have one of our favorite guests back on the show.

我们正在为密歇根对阵弗吉尼亚大学的比赛做赛前预热。

We're lining up for Michigan versus UVA preview.

我们今天的嘉宾是摩根士丹利的首席美国股票策略师兼首席投资官迈克·威尔逊。

Our guest today is Mike Wilson, Chief US Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley.

迈克，欢迎再次来到节目。

Mike, welcome back to the show.

谢谢，梅布。

Thanks, Meb.

很高兴见到你。

Great to see you.

我们上次交谈是几年前了。

Last time we spoke was a couple years ago.

和往常一样，市场这段时间一直很动荡，我读了你的一些文章。

As always, been a little crazy time in markets and was reading some of your pieces.

我想我们从你最近经常提到的一个概念开始聊起，这个说法现在似乎已经很常见了。

I thought we had started with this concept you've been talking about quite a bit lately that I think the phrase is now a bit common now.

这个概念就是所谓的‘滚动式衰退与复苏’。

And and this was this idea, this concept of rolling recessions and recoveries.

现在的情况是什么样的？

What does it look like now?

那意味着什么？

What does that mean?

我们目前处于什么阶段？

And where where are we?

我们其实是创造了这个术语，因为我们试图解释疫情后发生的情况，你知道的。

We kind of invented that term because we were trying to figure out how to explain what was going on, you know, post the pandemic.

由于疫情的性质、封锁措施、V型复苏以及各种失衡，2020年后的复苏异常异常。

And because of the nature of the pandemic, the shutdowns and the V shaped recovery and all of that and the dislocations, it was just an abnormal recovery from, you know, 2020.

我们注意到，从2022年开始，尤其是科技巨头股，实际上已经进入了一场广泛的盈利衰退。

And, you know, what we noticed, we were in really a broad earnings recession starting in 2022 with the big tech stocks, quite frankly.

那里对需求的补偿很多。

There's a lot of payback for demand there.

然后我们看到，私营经济的大部分在不同时间都经历了某种形式的衰退。

And then we saw essentially most of the private economy going through a recession of some sort at different times.

通常情况下，当出现传统衰退时，一切都会因为某种冲击而同时崩溃，每个行业都在同时裁员，所有企业都出现负增长。

So normally, when you get a traditional recession, everything kind of just collapses at once because there's some shock that just tips you over, and every industry is firing people at the same time, and they're all having negative comps and everything else.

而这一次，我们看到的是经济中这种错落有致的衰退。

And this time around, what we saw was sort of this staggered sort of recession through the economy.

话虽如此，大多数私营行业其实经历了长达三年的衰退。

And having said that, I mean, the majority of the private industries kind of were in a three year recession.

这解释了为什么PMI连续3年半都低于50。

And, you know, that explains things like the the PMIs being below 50 for three and a half years straight.

对吧？

Right?

制造业就一直处于这种延长的衰退中。

So manufacturing was just in this elongated recession.

可选消费品股票，也是同样的情况。

Consumer discretionary stocks, you know, same idea.

你看看许多大宗商品板块，以及中小市值板块的许多部分。

You look at a lot of the commodity sectors and you look at many parts of the small mid cap parts of the complex.

这就是为什么我们的‘七巨头’表现如此集中，实际上是在掩盖这种萧条。

That's why we had such narrowness in the Mag-seven that was really kind of covering up this malaise.

我仍然认为这是一个新颖的想法，但我们已经展示了数据。

And I still think it's a novel idea, but we've we've shown the data.

我们已经对此进行了分析。

We've done the analysis on this.

但早在一年前，我们就预测进入2025年时，要结束这场衰退，必须让政府部门也经历一次衰退。

But we were sort of calling for this going into 2025, a year ago, that what we needed to finish the recession was to have a recession in government.

换句话说，这是唯一一个在疫情后因大量刺激政策而避开了衰退的部门。

Like, that was the one sector that had kind of avoided a recession post the pandemic because there was so much stimulus.

所以这很合理。

And so that makes sense.

然后我们就真的看到了。

And then we got it.

而那基本上就是多吉。

And that was that was basically Doge.

所以，尽管当时多吉可能显得令人不满，但它确实削减了约30万个政府职位，这是一次相当可观的政府雇员减少，幅度约为10%。

So as unsatisfactory, perhaps as Doge might have seemed at the time, it actually did eliminate about 300,000 government jobs, which is a pretty healthy reduction in government employees, about 10%.

所以这是一次严重的衰退。

So that's a severe recession.

而这正是导致一切在四月触底的原因。

And that's really that's kind of what bottomed everything in April.

以关税和解放日为名，这实际上是给市场带来的最后一击。

You know, under the guise of tariffs and Liberation Day, that was that was sort of the final blow to the markets.

但基本上，我们在2025年4月就已经将这次衰退计入了价格。

But basically, we priced in that recession in April 2025.

标普指数下跌了20%，许多股票下跌了百分之三十、四十甚至五十。

With S and P down 20%, many stocks down thirty, forty, 50%.

当时我们就讨论过这一点。

And we talked about that at the time.

随后市场出现了反弹。

And then we had the reflexive move higher.

当然，这次反弹没有2020年那么剧烈，因为之前的跌幅本身就没那么严重。

Now it wasn't as dramatic as the reflexive move, of course, in 2020 because decline itself wasn't as bad.

所以我们现在处于我所说的渐进式复苏中，不是每个行业都在同等程度上参与。

So we're in now what I call a rolling recovery, where not every sector is participating as much.

这不是集体性的，对吧？

It's not collective, right?

而是一点一点地发生。

It's happening piecemeal.

这种情况一直很好地持续到大约两个月前。

And that was really playing through nicely up until about, I'd say, two months ago.

然后我们开始看到其他因素开始拖累市场，我认为最显著的是人工智能现在正在自我吞噬，AI对市场各领域劳动力的颠覆性影响。

And then we started to have other things start to weigh on the markets, I would say most notably AI now kind of eating itself, the AI disruption on labor in various parts of the market.

由于这种担忧，这些股票受到了打压，无论是软件股还是商业服务公司，那些可能被AI有效取代的公司。

And those stocks have been punished for that concern, whether it be software stocks or business services companies, things that could be disintermediated by AI effectively.

所以这是拖累股市的一个因素。

So that's one thing that's kind of been weighing on stocks.

而第二个因素当然是私人信贷的低迷，我认为那里确实存在真正的问题。

And then the second one, of course, has been this private credit malaise, which I think, you know, there are real issues there.

我认为这目前还不是系统性问题，但对私人信贷管理者来说确实是个问题，对那些依赖于此的领域也是如此。

I don't think it's a systemic problem yet or today, but it's a problem for private credit managers for sure, and it's a problem for things levered to that.

而这又是你所知的一些软件问题的另一延伸。

And that's another outgrowth of some of the software problems, as you know.

现在我们面临着伊朗冲突和战争。

Now we have the Iran conflict and the war.

这对我来说，与去年我们在解放日之前面临的诸多市场压力非常相似。

And that's, to me, very similar to last year where we had a lot of things weighing on the market going into Liberation Day.

而解放日正是导致经济衰退的最后一击。

And the Liberation Day was the final blow that caused the recession.

今年与去年的不同之处在于，我认为这次我们不必经历衰退，因为经济在进入这场战争时的底层韧性要强得多。

Now, the difference between this year and last year is that I don't think we have to have a recession this time because the underlying strength in the economy is much better going into this war.

我对这场战争何时会结束没有特别深入的见解，但我认为市场通常能很快地消化这类信息。

And I don't have any great insight around what's going to cause it to end, but I think the markets have a way of pricing this stuff pretty quickly.

在我们发动攻击之前，石油和能源股就已经表现最佳，这绝非巧合。

And it's no coincidence that oil and energy stocks were the best performers well before we attacked.

这并不是市场完全没预料到的事情，尽管这仍然是一个没人希望看到的糟糕事件。

It's not like it was a total surprise to the markets, even though it's still kind of a terrible event that nobody really wants to see.

因此，现在市场正在最终确定这一点。

And so now the markets are in the process of finalizing that.

所以我认为，除非油价在全球范围内持续保持在每桶120美元以上——这不仅指布伦特原油，还要记住西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）由于美国的产量而相对不受影响。

And so I don't think unless oil is going to stay above, call it, dollars 120 a barrel globally, that doesn't mean just Brent, but also remember WTI, you know, somewhat insulated from this because of the production in The US.

目前布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油之间的价差正在扩大。

That the spread now is widening out between Brent and WTI.

美国至少在一段时间内对这一情况具有较强的韧性。

The US is pretty resilient to this, at least for a period of time.

此外，退税金额也同比增长了约17%，这在一段时间内为更高的汽油价格提供了一个良好的缓冲。

There's also the tax refunds, which are running up about 17% year over year, which is a nice buffer against higher gas prices for a period of time.

当然，由于《大而美好的法案》中的激励措施，目前资本支出正在大幅增加。

And of course, have a lot of CapEx now picking up because of the incentives in the big beautiful bill.

因此，这种持续的复苏中蕴含着许多基本面的强劲力量，我认为这将防止经济硬着陆，我。

So there's a lot of underlying strength in that rolling recovery that I think will prevent a hard landing, I.

呃。

E.

衰退，除非情况真的失控。

Recession, unless this really gets out of hand.

我不做尾部风险的预测。

And I'm not in the business predicting tail risk.

我认为没人知道这场冲突和油价究竟会如何发展。

I don't think anybody knows what's really gonna happen with this conflict and price of oil.

我也相信全球经济会解决这个问题，因为必须解决。

And I also believe that global economies will solve this problem because it has to.

对吧？

Right?

因为另一种可能是全球性萧条。

Because the alternative is a global depression.

所以，如果到了六月我们突然发现油价还是每桶125到130美元，而许多经济体正在崩溃，伊朗将面临来自以色列和美国以外的诸多压力。

And so Iran's gonna get a lot of heat from a lot of people besides Israel and The United States if all of a sudden we wake up in June and oil is still one twenty five, one thirty, and a lot of economies are bleeding out.

所以我认为这个问题会在未来几个月内自行解决。

So I think this will resolve itself over the next couple of months.

当你做年终展望时，你提到一些观点，其中之一是我们可能正进入一个早期周期的环境。

When you kind of did your year end outlook, you talked about some ideas, one of which was we might be entering sort of this early cycle environment.

至于投资组合的配置，比如从市值加权转向小盘股或等权重，周期性板块与防御性板块的调整，这类思路。

And perhaps as far as portfolio implementations, tilting away, shifting from something like a market cap weight to something like a small or equal weight, cyclicals versus defensives, these type of ideas.

你能否更详细地谈谈今年市场中有哪些机会和需要规避的风险？

You want to talk about some of the getting a little more granular on the opportunities and things to avoid in the market this year?

是的。

Yeah.

我的总体观点是我们延续了2025年5月的判断，但在仓位配置上变得更加积极了。

So I mean, our general view was it was a continuation of our call in May 2025, but we got a more aggressive with some of the positioning.

我们一直耐心等待，推迟增持小盘股和等权重资产，因为我们想等美联储在一些问题上做出明确表态。

We've been very patient waiting to upgrade small caps and equal weight because we're kind of waiting for the Fed to get around on a few things.

所以我们一直等到十一月。

And so we waited till November.

自从十一月以来，这种市场扩散一直是主要趋势，直到最近伊朗战争和油价飙升出现。

And since November, that broadening out has been the story up until recently, of course, until the Iranian war and oil price spikes.

所以我认为这对我们核心观点来说只是暂时的中断或插曲。

So I think that's a temporary interruption or interlude in our core view.

我想明确这一点。

I want to make that clear.

我的意思是，我不认为这些交易在接下来的一个月左右会完美奏效，因为我们正经历这段时期，但最终它们应该会回升。

Like, I don't think that, you know, these trades are going to work, you know, perfectly for the next month or so as we go through this, but ultimately, they should resolve higher.

这些领域包括等权重标普指数相对于市值加权指数、中小盘股、消费 discretionary 领域——它们正从衰退中复苏，还有制造业、工业板块、一些被忽视的金融板块，比如地区性银行，而不是仅限于大型银行和另类管理机构，后者其实一直表现不佳，以及大宗商品。

And those areas would be kind of an equal weighted S and P over market cap weighted, small mid cap space, consumer discretionary where they've been they're coming out of a recession, the manufacturing sectors, industrials, some of the financials that have been left behind, like the regional banks, for example, as opposed to just the money centers and the alt managers, which have really been suffering, and then commodities.

你知道，金属方面，我们对金属和部分原材料的看涨程度，实际上远高于对能源的看法。

You know, the metals, we were really much more bullish on the metals and some of the materials than we were on energy, to be honest.

所以我们今年并没有预测到能源的上涨，但很高兴能从中受益不少。

So we didn't call the energy rally this year, but we're happy that sort of participated a lot.

我仍然认为现在更好的交易是略微退出能源，最终回归到一些原材料和金属领域。

I still think the better trade now because I think you wanna kind of fade energy a little bit and go back to some of the materials and metals ultimately.

你提到了等权重的小盘股。

So you mentioned small caps in equal weight.

我的意思是，小盘股相对于 mega cap 同类已经经历了很长一段低迷期。

I mean, it's been a long cycle of small caps just kind of struggling versus their mega cap brethren.

你们的展望报告里有一些不错的图表。

You guys have some good charts in your outlook.

其中之一是关于罗素2000指数中位数个股盈利增长的情况，你们用了‘中位数’这个词。

One of which was looking at the, and you used the word median for Russell two thousand, meeting stock earnings growth.

你可以看到这些转折点，比如在2023年第四季度触底，但去年开始明显转为正增长，而且涨幅相当可观。

And you can see these inflection points where really bottoming out in maybe Q4 'twenty three, but really starting to move positive and quite a bit higher last year.

再结合小盘股相对于大盘股的估值折价幅度相当大，已接近九十年代末的水平。

And then you mix that with the potential valuation discount to large caps being a pretty, pretty big number, getting close to things like the late nineties.

这是小盘股的情况。

It's small caps.

你是直接买入指数然后就完事了吗？

Is it you just buy the index and move on?

还是说你需要在指数中留意某些因素，然后转向其他不同的方向？

Or is it something that you need to watch out for in the index and go in some different places?

指数内部也存在多种选择。

There's also choices within the indices.

比如，大家常提到的罗素2000指数，但实际上它是全球质量最低的指数之一。

So, like, you know, the Russell two thousand is the one everybody quotes, but it's, as you know, one of lowest quality indices in the world.

因此，我们更关注标普600指数，作为可能值得考虑的替代方案，而不是单纯追求全面贝塔。

So we've been focused more into the S and P six hundred as an example of maybe something you might wanna think about as opposed to just going for the full beta.

罗素2000指数也表现不错，但在我们当前的市场环境下，它伴随着更高的风险。

Russell two thousand has outperformed as well, but it comes with a higher risk, particularly in an environment that we're in now.

所以从指数角度来看，我仍然更倾向于标普600，而不是罗素2000。

So I would say from an index standpoint, I still favor S and P 600 as opposed to the Russell two thousand.

当然，在行业内部，总有一些独特的机遇能让你表现得优于他人。

And then, of course, within the industry itself, there's always idiosyncratic opportunities to be better than others.

再次强调，我认为消费必需品领域有许多小型企业，将从一些政策变化、部分去监管措施以及长期积压的需求中受益。

Once again, I'll highlight consumer discretionary, I think, is an area where there's a lot of small cap businesses that are gonna get a bit of a lift here from some of the policy changes, some of the deregulation, some of the pent up demand that's been out there.

我认为，一旦通胀担忧逐渐消退，美联储最终会降息。

And I do think rates are probably gonna are gonna be cut ultimately by the Fed once the inflation concerns kinda go by the wayside.

因此，在小盘股领域中，确实有一些板块我认为会表现更好。

So there are definitely areas within the small cap space that I think will outperform.

每个人都喜欢尝试从历史中寻找当前市场状况的类比。

Everyone loves to try to find a comparison historically for where we're at in the markets.

当然，很多人想把它和九十年代末期相比较，因为某些方面感觉相似，但其他方面却大不相同。

And certainly a lot of people want to compare it to the late nineties because it feels similar in some ways, but it's pretty different in other ways.

你之前展示了一些很好的图表和观点。

You had some good charts and ideas.

也许你能详细讲讲，我们今天所处的环境与九十年代末期的主要区别在哪里？比如这些公司的状况，以及它们与那个时期相比有何不同？

Maybe I'd love to hear you walk through like the main differences between kind of where we are today as well as versus late nineties in terms of what these companies look like and how they look relative to that period?

是的。

Yeah.

首先，我们来谈谈估值。

Mean, first of all, let's just talk about valuation.

九十年代末的估值要极端得多。

The valuation in the late nineties was much more extreme.

我给你两个要点来思考。

I'll give you two things to think about.

一个是股权风险溢价。

One is equity risk premium.

如今，股权风险溢价接近零。

So today, the equity risk premium is close to zero.

它略微为正。

It's a little bit positive.

有些人会说，迈克，这看起来太贵了，股票的价格和十年期债券一样。

And some people say, well, that seems awfully rich, Mike, that stocks are the same price as a ten year bond.

但请你从这个角度想想，梅布，你是市场历史的专家。

But think about it in this context, Meb, and you're a scholar of market history.

我的意思是，我认为新冠疫情带来的最大影响是我们进入了一个可能持续三十年的通胀周期。

I mean, I believe that the single biggest impact of COVID is that we're now into an inflationary regime that will probably last thirty years.

明白吗？

Okay?

利率周期就是这样运行的。

That's just the way interest rate cycles go.

如果你相信这一点，那么作为投资者，你最首要的任务就是先跑赢通胀。

And if you believe that, then your number one concern as an investor is you gotta beat inflation first.

因此，自新冠疫情以来，尤其是美联储2021年开始加息后，固定收益类资产的表现一直非常糟糕。

And that's why, I mean, fixed income has been horrible really since COVID, really since 2021 when the Fed started raising rates.

我认为固定收益类资产未来仍将表现平平，因为你正在对抗这种通胀趋势。

And I think fixed income's gonna continue to be pretty lackluster because you're fighting that inflationary dynamic.

这就是固定收益资产的劣势所在。

And that's, you know, that's the disadvantage of fixed income.

它无法为你抵御通胀风险。

It doesn't protect you against that inflation risk.

那什么可以呢？

What does?

股票，尤其是高质量的股票。

Well, stocks, particularly high quality stocks.

这就是为什么标普指数和纳斯达克100指数表现如此出色，因为人们意识到：

And that's why the S and P has done so well, NASDAQ one hundred done so well, because people have said, look.

我理解这种通胀风险，但我希望持有最优秀、最高质量的公司，因为我知道它们能够随着时间推移超越通胀。

I understand this inflationary risk, but I wanna own the best, highest quality companies because I know that they can kinda outgrow inflation over time.

这也是为什么中小盘股表现落后的原因之一。

And that's one of reasons why small mid caps have underperformed.

然而，在某些时期，低质量股票实际上会超越高质量股票，因为通胀压力以积极的方式回归——这意味着它推动了盈利增长，这正是你刚才展示的图表中所看到的：企业中的通胀、定价正在显现，因为当前需求实际上已经超过了部分行业的供给，它们能够从中获利。

However, there are periods of time where the low quality names actually outperform the high quality names because that inflationary impulse comes back in a positive way, meaning it drives earnings growth, which is what we're seeing in that chart you just showed, where we're seeing inflation in business, right, pricing come through because demand now is actually exceeding supply in some of these businesses, and they're able to capture that.

这种情况不会永远持续下去。

It won't last forever.

我们对中小盘股不做任何判断。

We're not making a call on small, mid caps.

它们会连续十年跑赢。

They're gonna they're outperform for ten years.

这更像是一个为期十二个月，也许二十四个月的交易，但这就是我们的工作。

This is like a twelve month, maybe twenty four month sort of trade, but that's our job.

我们的工作是指出，在这个通胀周期中，你应当持有这种贝塔资产，因为我们认为，如果美联储保持观望，而你又能获得定价权，那么你就能跑赢大盘。

Our job is to say, this is a period in this inflationary regime where you want to own that beta because we think if the Fed's on hold and you're getting that pricing power through, then you can outperform.

这段时期在我们的投资经历中前所未见，而我可比你年长。

So this period is nothing like we've seen in our investment time frame, and I'm older than you.

但从历史角度看，它让我想起了大约五六年之前的情景，看起来很像上世纪40年代。

But what it does look like a lot to me, historically speaking, we were about this five or six years ago, it looks like the '40s.

它简直就像二战结束后的情景，当时我们经历了同样的动态。

It looks just like coming out of World War II where we had the same dynamic.

我们当时背负着战争带来的巨额债务。

We had all this excess debt from the war.

你可以说，这一次我们背负的债务更多，可能源于三场战争——阿富汗、伊拉克，现在可能还有伊朗，当然还有对病毒的战争。

You could argue we've got excess debt this time from probably three wars, whether it's Afghanistan, Iraq, and now potentially Iran, and obviously a war on the virus.

我的意思是，这场疫情也导致了大量债务累积。

I mean, that caused a bunch of debt to build up too.

所以我们现在的情况是，唯一的出路就是通过通胀或增长来摆脱这个问题。

So we've had the same setup now where there's only one option, which is to inflate your way or grow your way out of the problem.

理想情况下，你会同时通过更高的实际GDP和通胀来实现。

And ideally, you do it through both, higher real GDP and inflation.

这正是上世纪40年代发生的情况。

And that's what happened in the '40s.

当时你还有些有利因素，比如人口结构和战后重建，因为战争造成了巨大的破坏。

Now you had a little bit of tailwind there with demographics and rebuilding the world because of all the destruction that had occurred.

明白了。

Okay.

因此，我们对更高名义GDP增长如何实现有着不同的看法。

So we have a different view about how that higher nominal GDP growth can happen.

但这与过去三十年我们所经历的通胀环境完全不同。

But that's a totally different environment than what we've seen in the last thirty years where you've been this inflationary environment.

对吧？

Right?

在九十年代，生产力大幅提升，实际增长显著。

In the nineties, it was a lot of productivity, a lot of real growth.

在二月，情况有点像金融压抑，带点小花招。

In the February, it was kind of financial repression, a little gimmickry.

他们曾经经历过一轮商品周期。

They had a commodity cycle in there at one point.

但始终不变的是，当没有通胀时，美联储总能介入并救助所有人。

But the thing that was always in place was that the Fed could always come in and bail everybody out when you don't have inflation.

如今通胀就在表面之下，美联储必须采取更平衡的立场。

Now with inflation just below the surface, the Fed has to be a bit more two way.

这意味着我们将处在一个需要来回权衡的环境中。

And that means it's gonna be an environment where you have to kinda trade it back and forth.

所以让我总结一下。

So just I'll sum it up.

四十年代和五十年代的情况是，经济周期更热但持续时间更短。

What this looks like in the forties and fifties was you had these hotter but shorter economic cycles.

好的。

Okay.

不再是那种持续八到十年的漫长经济扩张，美联储可以一直维持它们；而是出现两三年的上升周期，去年是下行周期，然后又是类似的两三年上升周期。

Instead of these elongated eight to ten year economic expansions where the Fed could keep them going forever, these sort of two years or three year up cycles, a down cycle last year, and then the same thing, another two year up cycle, three year up cycle.

坦率地说，自2020年以来，我们看到的就是这种情况。

And that's what we've seen since 2020, quite frankly.

所以，这是一种完全不同的投资方式。

So it's just a different way of investing.

这并不意味着你不能买入并持有优质公司。

You know, the it doesn't mean you can't buy and hold good companies.

它的意思是，你必须更加意识到，类似2022年的情况可能再次发生。

What it means is you gotta be a little bit more aware that you can have a 2022 again.

当美联储不得不收紧政策——而且可能比你想象的更严厉时，你或许应该适当退出市场。

And you might wanna step out of the way a little bit when the Fed has to tighten probably more than you think.

说到收紧政策，如果你看看上世纪九十年代末期一些可能造成冲击或同时发生的事情，你确实看到了一些供给方面的变化。

Speaking of tightening, if you look at kind of some of the things that maybe killed or were concurrent in the late nineties, you certainly had some supply.

当时有很多首次公开募股（IPO），而这一轮周期中这种情况并没有太多发生，尽管据称SpaceX和其他一些大公司正在排队等待上市。

You had a lot of IPOs, which hasn't really happened as much this cycle, although we got some biggies waiting in the wings apparently with SpaceX and others.

我们走着瞧吧。

We'll see.

但正如你们提到的，美联储在1999年和2000年实际上是在加息，而最近看来他们一直在降息，而且人们普遍认为他们还会继续降息。

But the other was, as you guys mentioned, the Fed was actually hiking in '99, 2000, whereas it seems like they've been cutting at least recently and perhaps perceived like they will continue.

能不能就美联储的这些话题，或者美联储整体情况，发表一下看法？

Maybe comment on either of those topics in Fed in general.

这是否意味着，就市值加权方面而言，更大的潜在威胁是什么？

Is it something that as far as the the bigger threats to a potential on the on the market cap weight side?

我的意思是，美联储某种程度上是自己政策的受害者。

I mean, like, the Fed is kind of a victim of their own whatever policies.

对吧？

Right?

而且他们随着时间的推移，已经把自己困住了。

And they they've kind of trapped themselves over time.

因此，他们现在总是在某种程度上追逐滞后数据。

And so now they're they're always kinda chasing backward looking data to some degree.

这周早些时候我做了一个播客。

I did a podcast earlier this week.

我每周都做播客，我在期待未来三到四周内出现某种最终的绝望抛售。

I do a weekly podcast, and I I am looking for some sort of final capitulation here in the next three or four weeks.

我原本以为美联储今天可能会因为战争而显得稍微更鹰派一些。

And I did think that the Fed might be a little bit more hawkish today only because of the war.

我的意思是，情况不明朗。

I mean, it's uncertain.

他们也不确定，而且不希望在这种背景下过早地暗示还会进一步降息。

They don't know, and they don't wanna, you know, be guiding to too many more cuts or anything anytime soon with that as a backdrop.

因此，他们更倾向于优先应对通胀目标，而非增长目标，尽管目前两者都处于不佳状态。

So they're leaning towards their inflation mandate away from their growth mandate, even though both are kind of in a bad spot right now.

所以我认为市场将此解读为略微更鹰派的立场，这就是今天市场下跌的原因。

And so I think the market did interpret this as a little bit more hawkish, and that's why we sold off today.

现在让我们回到我一直在使用的框架。

Now let's go back to the framework that I've been using.

我认为，美联储并不独立。

The Fed, I believe, is not independent.

明白吗？

Okay?

并不是说他们被白宫控制，但他们无法摆脱帮助财政部为政府融资的义务。

Not that they're captured by the White House, but they're not independent of their obligation to help the Treasury fund the government.

明白吗？

Okay?

我已经说了好几年了，五六年甚至十年了。

I've been saying this for, whatever, five, ten years.

他们会谈论自己的首要和第二项使命——充分就业和价格稳定，前提是金融状况这一第三项使命没有问题。

I mean, they will talk about their number one, number two mandate of full employment and and price stability so long as financial conditions, the third mandate is okay.

但一旦第三项使命出现问题——不仅仅是股市下跌，而是财政部市场出现动荡，无法顺利进行国债发行，债券波动率飙升时。

But as soon as the third and the third mandate is not just the stock market going down, it's really that the Treasury market gets disrupted, and they can't do Treasury auctions in a smooth way, and you get bond volatility spiking.

所以如果你留意过去三四年，每次债券波动加剧时，美联储都会迅速介入，无论是硅谷银行和区域性银行危机，还是今年二月的债券拍卖失败。

So if you notice over the last three or four years, every time bond volatility spikes, the Fed rushes in, whether it was SVB and the regional banking crisis, or it was just a failed bond auction in, say, the February '24.

所以对我来说，市场是理解这一点的。

So to me, the market understands this.

明白吗？

Okay?

市场知道我们最终只能通过通胀来摆脱困境。

The market knows we end up have to inflate our way out.

市场知道美联储必须配合。

The market knows the Fed's gonna have to play ball.

保罗·沃克已经不在了。

Paul Walker doesn't live anymore.

明白吗？

Okay?

他们不可能单纯地对抗通胀。

They can't just fight inflation.

他们得让这个局面继续维持下去。

They have to keep the the thing kinda going a bit.

这是关键的观察点，也正是为什么股票目前可能并没有你想象的那么昂贵。

And this is the key observation, which is why stocks may not be as expensive as you think right now.

黄金价格显然已经飙升了。

Gold has gone obviously through the roof.

如果你看标普500指数与黄金价格的比值，今天它仍然比2000年的水平低了70%。

And if you look at the S and P 500 divided by the price of gold, today, it's still 70% below where it was in 2000.

好好想想这一点。

Think about that.

所以我们实际上根本没有进展。

So we basically are going nowhere.

我们持有股票，顺便说一句，有些股票表现确实优异。

We own stock, and some stocks, by the way, have outperformed.

所以这就是你的保障。

And and so that's your protection.

对吧？

Right?

我认为个人投资者、散户投资者、资产配置者都理解这种动态。

And I think individual investors, retail investors, asset allocators, they understand this dynamic.

你知道，人们并不傻，尤其是散户投资者。

You know, people are not dumb, and particularly retail investors.

我讨厌别人嘲笑散户投资者，因为他们并不笨。

I hate when people make fun of retail investors because they're not stupid.

这是他们的钱。

It's their money.

他们明白这个笑话。

They get the joke.

他们心想：等等。

They're like, wait a minute.

我得保护好自己。

I gotta protect myself.

我必须拥有某种表现优于黄金、至少能跟上黄金的资产。

I gotta own something that's gonna do better than gold or at least keep up with gold.

明白吗？

Okay?

过去二十年持续进行的货币贬值，并不是什么新现象。

And the debasing that's been going on now for twenty years, this is not a new phenomenon.

所以，如果你仔细想想，从理论上讲，所有东西相对于黄金都显得很便宜。

So now if you think about it, everything is cheap relative to gold in theory.

石油与黄金的比价达到了前所未有的80倍，房地产相对于黄金也显得便宜。

Oil is the biggest ratio we've seen ever, like 80 fold, or real estate is cheap to gold.

我一直是非常看多黄金的，但你必须问自己：黄金现在是不是有点被高估了？

And I've been very much a gold bull, but you have to ask yourself, is gold maybe the one that's kind of overvalued now a little bit?

也许从现在开始，股票才是更好的抗通胀工具，至少在一段时间内是这样。

And maybe stocks are the better hedge against inflation from here, at least for a period of time.

这比你可能想听或期待的答案要长得多，而你的问题其实是：美联储被财政部俘获了。

It's a longer answer than you're probably listening or looking for to your question, which is the Fed is captured by Treasury.

明白？

Okay?

财政部被国会控制。

Treasury is captured by Congress.

明白？

Okay?

财政主导的模式已经根深蒂固，因为如果我们不继续大力推动这种趋势，就会陷入通缩环境，就像日本那样。

And the the fiscal dominant theme is very much in place because if we don't kinda push the boat this way harder still, then we have a deflationary environment, you get Japan.

明白？

Okay?

他们为此已经努力了十五年、二十年，你知道的。

They've been trying to fight this for, as you know, fifteen, twenty years.

他们最终在这一点上取得的成功可能超出了预期，而要平衡这一切实在很难。

They finally got probably a little more success than they wanted in that regard, and and it's just a hard thing to kind of balance.

我想讨论几个话题，我觉得你刚才提到的观点特别精彩。

There's a couple of topics I really want to get into here that thought were such great points.

你知道的，在9月25日的时候，你就已经预见到这点，当时聊了黄金等等相关的内容。

Know, in September 25, you were kind of ahead of this talking about, you know, gold and everything.

甚至有人提出过一个构想，我很难想象除了加拿大、澳大利亚、中国、或许还有印度的投资者之外，还有人会采纳这个构想——就是传统的股六债四投资组合，但把那40%的债券部分砍半，将一半的资金配置给黄金。

And they even floated the idea, which I can't imagine anyone would incorporate unless they're Canadian, Australian, Chinese, Indian maybe, but the old sixtyforty portfolio, but chopping that 40 into giving half of it to gold.

有意思的是，如果你做一系列模拟就会发现，从历史表现来看，在固定收益资产中配置一定比例的黄金，最终能拿到和传统组合非常接近的收益，只是收益的实现路径不一样。

And it's funny because you run a bunch of simulations and historically having the chunk in gold as a particularly as a portion of the fixed income component offers up a pretty similar end result, but with a different path.

很显然，黄金的价格波动逻辑和股票、债券都不相同。

Obviously, gold responds differently than both stocks and bonds.

请和我们多聊聊这个想法。

Talk to us a little bit about that thought.

还有一件事，从某种层面上来说这几乎有点偏哲学范畴了，另外你和机构客户交流时，他们对这个观点的接受度如何——他们是愿意深入探讨这个话题吗？还是说在黄金价格翻倍之后，他们现在才变得更愿意聊这个了？

And then also, and that it's almost philosophical, you know, in a way, but also how that reception to that idea, you know, as you talk to institutional clients, is that something they particularly were open to discussing, or more so now that gold's, you know, doubled after that?

说实话，这得追溯到2014年左右了，那时候我们就提出，六四开的配置不能只配黄金，还要纳入另类投资。

Well, I mean, this goes back to probably 2014, quite frankly, where we started the question that sixtyforty is not just gold, but alternative investments.

也就是说，当时我们讨论的是把私人信贷、私募股权、黄金以及其他硬资产都归到同一个大类里做配置。

So whether that point we're talking about private credit, private equity, gold and other hard assets as part of a bigger bucket.

当我九月份做这个电话或播客时，我当时对黄金的态度更加乐观一些。

And when I did this call or podcast in September, I was incrementally more bullish on gold at the time.

结果出来后，有人问了一个问题，说那20%是不是都应该投入黄金，对吧？

And it came out as all of that 20% should go into somebody asked a question, all that should go into gold, right?

我说，因为你听起来对黄金非常看涨。

And I said, because you sound like you're really bullish on gold.

我说，如果黄金表现良好，它在投资组合中的比重确实可能会更大。

I said, well, are times when it's going be a bigger part of the portfolio if it's performing.

而这恰恰正是现在发生的情况。

And that's exactly what's kind of happened.

所以，正如我在采访中所说，如果今天你的配置中完全没有黄金，我不会建议你一次性全部切换进去。

So as I said in the interview, I said, look, if you have no goal today, you know, 40%, I would not advocate putting doing this, you know, swap all at once.

对吧？

Right?

事实上，过去十年利率一路走低，你应该早就把一部分资金从固定收益资产中移出了。

This is a thing where, you know, you should have had money moved away from fixed income over the last ten years, quite frankly, as rates were going to zero.

我不认为在名义利率有时为负的情况下，把资金从固定收益产品中分散出去是个明智的决定，这太荒谬了。

I don't think that's a brilliant statement, okay, to diversify away from fixed income when when your nominal rate was negative in some cases, which is crazy.

但现在情况已经稍微恢复正常了，对吧？

But now that's normalized a bit, right?

所以，如果你相信盈亏平衡通胀率，十年期国债甚至其他主权债务的实际利率已经接近2%。

So real rates on ten year treasury yields or even other sovereign debt is close to 2% if you believe breakevens.

我的意思是，这一点值得怀疑。

I mean, that's questionable.

但至少它提供了正的实际收益率。

But at least it's a positive real yield.

你至少不是一无所获。

You're not getting nothing.

因此，我认为固定收益产品仍然扮演着重要角色，因为你能获得收益，只要你能对实际回报率感到安心。

So I think fixed income still plays an important role because you get income, okay, as long as you're getting a real rate of return that you can feel comfortable with.

所以，我可能会略微缩短久期，这意味着黄金可以充当防御性资产，而这正是久期所能提供的作用。

So I would probably shorten the duration a bit, meaning gold can play the defensive asset, which is what duration gets you.

然后，曲线中段五到七年的投资组合可以为你提供一些收益。

And then maybe like a kind of a belly of the curve portfolio, five to seven years can provide you some of the income.

顺便说一下，这不仅仅是国债。

And by the way, it's not just treasuries, of course.

还包括信贷，可以是公共信贷和私人信贷。

It's credit, and it could be public and private credit.

也可以是基础设施类收益产品。

It can be infrastructure yielding products.

明白吗？

Okay?

还可以是房地产。

It can be real estate.

所以我不希望人们得出结论说，我应该全仓持有黄金，因为黄金不产生收益。

So I don't want people to walk away saying, I should own all gold because you get no yield.

收益是任何资产持有者投资组合中非常重要的部分，尤其是对于退休人士来说。

And yield is a very important part of any asset owner's portfolio, particularly if you're retired.

有些人，你知道的，不管怎样，对这个头条消息感到有点惊讶。

Some people, you know, whatever, were a little surprised at the headline.

但当你这样解释时，我想人们就明白这个笑话了。

But when you explain it like that, then I think people get the joke.

当然，当我做出这个评论时，那正是市场向5600点发起最终大幅上涨的开端。

And of course, when I made the comment, that was like the beginning of the big final move here to whatever, 5600.

所以时机至关重要。

So timing is everything.

我没料到这件事会这么快发生，但事实就是这样。

I didn't expect that to happen that quickly, but here we are.

我觉得如今的主流观点是，你可以告诉我你是否同意——地缘政治冲击并不会导致长期衰退，对吧？

It feels like the common narrative today, and you can tell me if you agree with this, don't agree with it, it feels like a little more that like geopolitical shocks don't lead to prolonged downturns, right?

我觉得我们都希望相信，市场总是在发生各种疯狂的事情。

Like I feel like we all want to believe, hey, there's always crazy stuff going on in markets.

这一切都会过去，继续投资就好。

This too will pass and, you know, keep investing.

在这场伊朗冲突中，有没有一种情况会证明这个观点不成立？

Is there a situation with this Iranian conflict where that proves not to be the case?

我觉得，你知道，这种假设似乎是，我也可能错了，大多数人认为这件事很快就会结束。

I think, you know, the assumption it feels like, and I could be wrong, is that most people assume this is going to be done pretty soon.

关于如何具体看待这个问题，你有什么总体看法吗？

Any general thoughts on how we should think about this one in particular?

正如你正确指出的，我认为人们已经被训练成不要在这些情况下抛售，因为历史上这一直是避免损失的正确做法。

As you rightly point out, I think people have been trained to not sell into these things because historically that's been the right thing to avoid.

总有一天，这类事件中的一件很可能会演变成一个长期的问题。

And one of these days, one of these things is probably going to turn into an elongated problem.

正如我之前所说，我认为经济——至少在美国，好吧，我会从美国的角度来谈——我觉得其他一些地区可能会变得非常糟糕。

As I said earlier, think the economy, at least in The US, okay, I'll speak to this from The US, I do think certain other regions could really get pretty ugly.

我确实无法控制那些直接波及石油、粮食、化肥以及其他一切的东西。

I don't really have an option on some of the stuff that goes through this straight to the oil, but also food and fertilizers and everything else.

美国拥有地理上的巨大优势，以及极其丰富的粮食、水资源、能源，以及维持生活和商业所需的方方面面，这真是莫大的特权。

Mean, The US has this great privilege of geographical distance and incredibly rich production of food and water and energy and all the things you need to sustain life and business, quite frankly.

我们处于一个有利的位置。

We're kind of in an advantageous position.

我必须相信政府也考虑到了这一点，更不用说他们还扣押了委内瑞拉的石油，用来供应墨西哥湾沿岸的炼油厂生产精炼产品。

And I gotta believe the administration thought about that, not to mention they sequestered, you know, Venezuela oil to feed our special crackers in in The Gulf Coast to to to make refined product.

因此，我们在这一方面还有另一个缓冲余地。

So we have another buffer in that regard.

所以我认为，从美国的角度来看，这是一项相当周全的计划。

So I think it was a fairly well thought out plan from The US' perspective.

再次强调，我们任何人都无法预知未来。

Once again, it's impossible for any of us to put handicap eyes.

这可能是20%的风险、5%的风险，或者50%的风险——油价会持续一段时间涨到每桶150美元，而在我看来，这必然会导致全球性衰退。

This is a 20 risk or a 5% risk or a 50% risk that this turns into $150 oil for a sustained period of time, which to me is a global recession for sure.

明白吗？

Okay?

如果你持这种观点，那你就是在对冲这种风险，这么说吧。

If that's your view, that's what you're trying to hedge, let's put it this way.

如果你想要对冲这种风险，那么你应该把资产转移到美国。

If that's what you're trying to hedge, then you should be moving assets to US.

这就是你的防御性交易，因为欧洲、日本、韩国或其他地区并没有因为这种结果而表现得特别糟糕，即使情况变糟的话。

Like, that's your defensive trade, because it's not as if Europe or Japan or Korea or these other regions have traded disproportionately worse given the outcome, if it's a bad outcome.

所以我认为，像这样的事情其实不太合理，相比之下，标普指数的跌幅并没有人们想象的那么大，这反而更让我觉得奇怪。

So I do think there's things like that that don't make like, that makes less sense to me than, say, the S and P is not down as much as people might think.

比如，这就是一个异常现象。

That's one aberration, for example.

另一个异常是，人们可能会想：既然这是对地缘政治风险的对冲，为什么过去两三周黄金价格却暴跌？

Another one might be people think, well, why is gold getting killed the last two weeks, three weeks if this is a hedge against geopolitical risk?

也许是因为人们之前过度持有这种对冲工具，现在需要流动性了，因为许多央行需要资金来应对油价上涨、食品价格上涨，或者现在必须向民众提供的补贴。

Well, maybe because people had too much of that hedge on, and they need liquidity now because a lot of central banks need money to pay for higher price of oil or the higher price of food or subsidies that they've to give their population now.

我认为日本刚刚宣布，将为公民提供补贴，以应对战争带来的燃料成本和其他通胀压力。

I think Japan just announced that they're going to be providing subsidies to their citizens for higher fuel costs and other higher inflationary costs from the war.

所以我觉得，要弄清楚这些真的非常困难。

So I think it's very hard to know.

我认为对战争的看法应该是这样的：石油价格变化的峰值可能已经过去，也就是二阶导数的顶点。

I would say the way I think about the wars is the following, which is that the peak rate of change in oil probably happened, meaning just the second derivative.

假设需求是创新之母，正如我所说，每桶140美元的油价对大多数人来说都不可行，可能只有少数生产商能受益。

And assuming, I would say, the necessity is the mother of ingenuity, meaning, like I said, dollars 140 oil doesn't work for anybody except maybe a few producers.

如果伊朗持续封锁，来自中国、印度及其贸易伙伴的不满情绪很可能会变得非常强烈。

And the ire against Iran from China, from India, from their partners who've been buying their products is probably going to get pretty loud if they really do keep this thing shut.

目前我们已经看到一些船只通过，尤其是中国和印度的船只，我认为这种情况会越来越多。

So we are seeing some vessels get through now, particularly Chinese vessels and Indian vessels, and I think you're gonna see you're gonna see more of that.

所以我密切关注布伦特原油和WTI原油之间的价差，这个价差在最近一天急剧扩大。

So one thing I watch closely is the spread between Brent and WTI, and that blew out the last, really day.

通常当这种价差变得极端时，可能意味着转折点的开始，因为这会给石油进口国带来巨大的不均衡压力，促使他们意识到这是一个物流问题。

And usually when that gets really extreme, that can be the beginning of the end because it creates such uneven pressure on the importers of oil that they figure out the logistic what this is, this is a logistical problem.

这不是供应问题，也不是需求问题。

This is not a supply problem or a demand problem.

这就像，如果我们能解决霍尔木兹海峡的通行障碍，问题就能立即得到解决。

This is like, if we can just figure out this straight of Hormuz, it's fixed, like, instantaneously.