钱币与收藏品之王 - 万·西蒙斯 | #624

以前我每天可能会接到两三个想买黄金的电话，而每个月或每两个月才有一个想卖黄金的人。

And I would probably let's say I'd get two to three calls a day of people wanting to buy gold, and I'd get one person every month or two wanting to sell gold.

现在黄金的情况是，想卖黄金的人很多，想买的人也很多。

Now where gold is, you get a lot of people who are wanting to sell gold and a lot of people are wanting to buy it.

所以目前市场相当平衡，因为很多人在黄金上赚了不少钱，尤其是欧洲那些从家族继承了黄金的人。

So it's pretty even right now because a lot of people have made a lot of money on it, especially the people in Europe who's, you know, they inherited it from the family.

回想我一生中，当我上高中时买黄金，价格是每盎司35美元。

Realizing my lifetime that when I was in high school and I was buying gold, it was $35 an ounce.

所以，金价已经上涨了150倍。

So, you know, it's gone up 150 times.

这确实是一次巨大的涨幅。

You know, it's been a pretty big move.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，当你回顾本世纪甚至更早的历史时，从学术角度来看，黄金的表现优于股票和房地产投资信托基金，这开始变得相当有趣。

I mean, it starts to get into some interesting financial optimizations from the academics when you look back even this century where gold's the best performing asset over stocks, over REITs.

在某个时间尺度上，历史会逐渐变成预期。

At some time horizon, the history becomes kind of the expectation.

因此，从理论和心理上讲，如果你展望未来，发现黄金在现代时期的回报率并非历史上那样，而是更接近这些水平，这就给机构配置者带来了非常有趣的挑战——他们要么不配置，要么配置极少。

So theoretically, mentally, if you project out, oh, well, gold is not historically XYZ returns in the modern era, it's closer to these returns, it creates some really interesting challenges for institutional allocators that A) either don't allocate or B) allocate very little.

我们的制片人提到，你有个关于一位老年绅士的好故事，你帮他卖了一些黄金。

Our producer was saying you got a good story about an older gentleman that you helped sell some gold.

这能激发什么想法吗？

Does that spark any ideas?

我来解释一下这个故事。

I'll explain this story.

我不能告诉你他的名字，因为这根本无关紧要。

I can't tell you his name because it wouldn't make any difference anyway.

但我有一位客户，我想他今年94或95岁了，他已经是我多年的客户了。

But so I have a client who's I think he's 94 or 95, and he's been a client for several years.

几年前，他给我打过电话，说：你知道吗，我曾在多个国家制造产品，比如中国、香港、新加坡等地。

And several years ago, he called me and goes, You know, I manufactured a lot of products out the country in China and Hong Kong and Singapore and all these different places.

他说，我有一些一千克的金条。

He goes, I've got some kilo bars.

他有两三个一千克的金条。

And he had like two or three kilo bars.

他想把这些金条拿来换成20美元的金币，因为在我职业生涯中，20美元金币的溢价一直是黄金现货价格的两倍。

He wanted to bring them in and trade them for $20 gold pieces because the premium on $20 gold pieces for my career has been like double the spot price of gold.

如果黄金是300美元，这些金币就值600美元——我不是在说成色完美的未流通硬币。

If gold was $300 they were $600 I'm not talking about brilliant uncirculated coins.

我只是在说流通过的硬币。

I'm just talking about circulated coins.

而现在，溢价已经和黄金鹰币差不多了。

And now the premium's like the same price as a gold eagle or something.

也就是比黄金的现货价格或熔炼价值高出2%到3%。

There's 2% or 3% over the spot price of gold or the melt value.

总之，他想用这些金条换20美元金币，因为它们更容易交易，他也可以在不同种类之间分散配置。

Anyway, so he wanted to trade them for 20s because they're more tradable and he can diversify them between.

他不需要把32.5盎司的金条全留着，可以分一些给他的孙子孙女之类的。

Instead of having 32 and a half ounces in a gold bar, he could give some to his grandkids and things like that.

所以他带了几个公斤金条过来。

So he brings in a couple of kilo bars.

一个公斤金条大概和一包香烟一样大，可能还稍微薄一点。

And a kilo bar is like a size of a pack of cigarettes or something, maybe a little thinner.

然后他又打电话来说，我还有五个公斤金条打算带过来。

So then he calls again and says, know, I've got five other kilo bars I'm gonna bring in.

我说，好的。

I said, fine.

这件事发生在过去几年里。

This was over the last couple of years.

然后他给我打了电话。

And then he called me.

几个月前我跟科比说起这事时，他说：范，我真的需要你的帮助。

I was telling Colby a couple of months ago and says, Van, I really need your help.

我说，好的。

And I said, okay.

他说，我刚想起来，三十年前中国政府关闭了我名下的那家公司。

And he goes, I just realized I had this company of the Chinese government closed on me thirty years ago.

他说，负责我所有在那边制造业务并处理相关事务的律师给我打了电话，说你还有一部分黄金存放在香港和新加坡的仓库里。

He goes, and my lawyers who run all my manufacturing stuff over there and take care of stuff called me and said, you know, you still have these ounces of gold over here in storage in Hong Kong and in Singapore.

他说，我完全把这事给忘了。

And he goes, I completely forgot about it.

我说，好的。

And I said, okay.

然后他说，但那些黄金加起来有五百六十七盎司。

And then he goes, but it's five sixty seven ounces of gold.

我心里想，天啊，这可是一笔不小的收获。

I'm going, jeez, that's a nice hit.

我说，没有什么比发现一堆黄金更让人高兴的了。

I said, nothing like finding a lot of gold.

他说，我能把这些公斤金条寄给你吗？

And he goes, can I send you these kilo bars?

我有点笑了。

And I kind of laughed.

我说，当然可以。

I said, of course you can.

然后他打回来问，我跟你说过我有多少吗？

And then he calls back and he goes, how much did I tell you I had?

我说，5.67盎司。

I said $5.67 ounces.

他说，不是，是五百六十七公斤金条。

He goes, no, it's five sixty seven kilo bars.

我说，哦，所以你找到了价值七千五百万到八千万美元的黄金？

I said, oh, so you found 75 to $80,000,000 worth of gold?

然后他说，不是。

And then he goes, no.

对不起。

I I'm sorry.

我觉得是七百六十七公斤金条。

I think it's seven sixty seven kilo bars.

大约一个月后，海关给我打电话说，我们这里有三百公斤金条要入境。

And like a month later, I had customs calling me saying, you know, we've got 300 kilo bars coming through.

这人是谁？

Who is this guy?

我开始笑起来。

And I started laughing.

我说，他就是个普通人，这确实是事实。

I said, he's just a normal guy, which is true.

剩下的金条还滞留在海关，但我不知道他到底有多少。

And the rest of it is still stuck in customs, but I don't know how much he has.

但他确实是找到了这些金条。

But, yeah, he just found it.

我不知道该怎么处理它。

And I didn't know what to do with it.

我说，如果你有喜欢的秘书，可以给她们买房子。

And I said, well, if you have secretaries you like, you can buy them houses.

他有两个女孩跟着他三十年了，所以他帮她们还清了房款。

And he's got two girls that have been with him for thirty years, so he paid off both their houses.

我不知道他打算怎么用这些钱。

I don't know what he's gonna do all with.

我喜欢这些故事。

I love these stories.

你知道，这让我想起一点，比如黄金兴趣，以及我们这些年在节目中讨论过的一些事情，听众们，如果你回听我们第一次的对话，我曾写过一篇博客文章，我说：‘好吧，范，你得帮我挑选一套入门级的硬币收藏。’

You know, it reminds me a little bit of, you know, if you look at the the gold interest and one of the things we talked about on the show over the years, listeners, if you go back to our first conversation and we did a blog post on this where I said, alright, Van, you gotta help me with the starter collection on my coins.

我当时说，我们会把细节放在网站上并进行讨论。

And I was like, we'll detail it on the website and talk about it.

所以对于在YouTube上观看的观众，你们可以看到我们这些小东西，但多年来我们一直保留着它们。

And so for those watching on YouTube, you can kinda see we've got these little these little guys, but we've we've held onto them over the years.

所以我不知道它们今天值多少钱，但肯定比那时候高。

And so I don't know what they're worth today, but it's definitely more than then.

这不一定对。

That's not necessarily that's not necessarily true.

如果它们是普通的金币，价值可能更低，因为近年来一些普通金币的价格大幅下跌，但稀有金币的价格却大幅上涨。

If they're common gold coins, they may be worth less, because some of the gold coins came down quite a bit over the last years, the common things, but the rare things went up quite a bit.

我们有一枚1883年的精制十美分硬币。

Well, we got a proof seeded dime from 1883.

我想这是我的最古老的一枚。

I think that's my oldest one.

但这里我也笑了，因为你知道，我们喜欢做一些动手研究，一直看到关于好市多在卖金条、每月都售罄的故事，说是卖了四千万什么的，我当时想这不可能吧，我试着买，结果卖光了，后来终于在网上买到了。

But also in here, was laughing because, you know, we we like to do a little bit of get your hands dirty research and we kept seeing these stories about how Costco was selling Gold Bars and they were selling out every month and it was like 40,000,000 or something and I was like, that can't be right and I tried to buy some and they were sold out and then eventually got online.

我买了一条，大概是一盎司的小金条。

I bought one and this is like little one ounce.

我本来以为会像唐老鸭或者史高治·麦克老鸭那样，出现巨大的金条。

I was expecting like the Donald Duck, you know, Scrooge McDuck, like real gold bars coming in like the giant.

我当时就想，等等，就这小玩意儿？这就是我得到的全部？

I was like, wait, this little guy, this is all I get?

但这挺搞笑的。

But it was funny.

你开始看到它进入文化圈了，Supreme推出了自己的金条，诸如此类的事情。

And you're starting to see it enter the culture supreme, put out their own gold bar, all these things.

如果你从几十年前就一直在圈子里，见证过几次这样的高峰和低谷，你觉得现在这种感觉如何？

And it's interesting that if you've been around, started this company decades ago and you've seen a few of these kind of peaks and valleys, what does this feel like to you?

我知道在收藏界，2021年那种感觉有点像狂热——也许用词不太准确，但确实很多东西都出现了短期的峰值。

I know 2021 in the collectible world kind of felt like a euphoria being maybe the wrong word, but definitely a short term peak on a lot of things.

你觉得在2026年的今天，感觉又如何？

What does it feel like now to you in 2026?

这要看市场情况。

It depends on the market.

比如手表。

Watches, for example.

手表非常具有收藏价值。

Watches are very collectible.

围绕手表有一个完整的市场，而且这是一个全球性的巨大市场。

There's a whole marketplace on them, and it's a huge marketplace worldwide.

它在地球上的任何地方都可以交易。

It's tradable any place on earth.

在新冠疫情期间及之后，手表价格飙升，因为像劳力士这样的公司，钟表匠无法生活在瑞士，因为那里太贵了。

During COVID and after COVID, watches just soared in price because you had a company like Rolex, the watchmakers couldn't live in Switzerland because it's too expensive.

所以他们住在德国。

So they lived in Germany.

因此，如果他们来工作并制造手表，就必须进入休眠状态。

So if they came to work and build watches, they'd have to hibernate.

你可能需要在酒店里休眠三十天、五天或七天。

Maybe you had to hibernate in a hotel for thirty days or five days or seven days.

然后他们工作七到十天，之后又回到德国，再休眠五到十天。

And then they'd work for seven to ten days, then they'd go back to Germany and have to hibernate for five to ten days.

因此，据我了解，生产曾中断了三到六个月，之后产量下降了约80%。

And so the production, they stopped for like three to six months was my understanding, then the production was down about 80%.

所以，现代手表的溢价急剧上涨。

So the premiums on more modern watches soared in price.

如今，收藏级古董手表的溢价非常非常强劲。

Now the premium on collectible vintage watches is very, very strong.

我不是被提供，而是……

I was offered not offered.

前几天有个经销商给我打电话，说：我有一块表。

I had a dealer call me the other day and goes, I've got this watch.

它只要39.5万美元，我说：天啊，我真不敢相信。

It's only $395,000 And I said, jeez, I can't believe that.

但那是一块非常稀有的手表。

But it was a really rare watch.

我还恭喜他买了这块表，等等。

And I was congratulating him on buying it and everything else.

第二天我就给他打了电话。

And I called him the next day.

我说，你觉得你多久能卖出去？

I said, how long do you think it'll take you to sell it?

他说，我昨天就卖掉了。

He goes, I sold it yesterday.

他说，有三四个买家会买这块表。

He goes, I got three or four guys who will buy that.

所以他们是真正愿意为昂贵物品买单的买家。

So they're serious buyers for very expensive things.

所以当时的狂热集中在手表上。

So the euphoria was in watches.

这种狂热也体现在体育纪念品上，你知道的，我不太理解。

The euphoria is also in sports memorabilia, which, you know, I don't understand.

大卫和我在1983年创办了一家公司。

David and I started a company back in 1983.

我记得当时叫美国卡片交易所，我们做的是买卖报价市场，也就是说，我们会公布我们的价格。

Think it was called American Card Exchange where we made a bid ask market, in other words, and we put out our prices.

我们愿意出一千美元收购，卖价是11.5美元一张卡片，你知道的，像300张30美元的卡片之类的，各种各样的东西。

We'll pay a thousand, we'll sell for $11.50 card, you know, on a list of coins or cards, you know, 300 at 3 thirty, different things like that.

从那以后，这个市场简直疯了。

And the market since then has just gone insane.

大约一个月前，我一个朋友给我打电话，他经营一家大型体育拍卖公司，他说：我刚卖了一张罗伯托·克莱门特的新秀卡，1955年的罗伯托·克莱门特新秀卡，由你们公司PSA评级。

Like about a month ago, one of my friends called me who owns a big sports auction company, and he said, I just sold a Roberto Clemente rookie card, 1955 Roberto Clemente rookie card rated by your company, PSA.

PSA是一家我们创办的体育卡片评级公司。

PSA is a sports card grading company that we opened.

于是我问：这张卡值多少钱？

And I said, how much is that worth?

他说：它的评级是10分。

He goes, well, it's graded 10.

你知道的，你们总共只评出过两张10分的。

And, know, you've only graded two of them in 10.

我说，是的，那还是1955年的。

I said, yeah, it was still 1955.

这可不是那种价值18美元、所有品相加起来只有13张的情况。

It's not it's not like a $18.00 $4 where there's only 13 known in all grades.

你知道，这种卡片当年生产了数百万张，现在市面上依然有数百万张，品相各异。

You know, this is a card where they made millions, and there's still millions of them out there in a variety of grades.

他问，那卖了多少钱？

Said, what'd that go for?

他说，我卖了两千万元。

He goes, I got 20,000,000 for it.

是的。

Yeah.

然后天哪。

And then Lord have mercy.

前几天又有个卡片经销商给我打电话，说，你想买一张1909年的霍纳斯·瓦格纳卡片吗？

Then I had another card dealer call me the other day, and he said, do you want to buy a Honus Wagner t two zero six?

我说，不买。

And I said, no.

你知道，它们的价格涨得太高了。

You know, they've gone up too much.

我不知道那张是名人堂卡片之一。

I don't which is one of the hall of fame cards.

我的意思是，它是其中最稀有的卡片之一。

I mean, it's one of the all one of the rarest cards.

我说，它品相怎么样？

And I said, how nice is it?

他说，嗯，它被评级为很高。

He goes, well, it's graded real.

我说，你什么意思？

And I said, what do you mean?

他说，嗯，你们公司给它评的级很高。

He goes, well, your company graded it real.

我说，它值多少钱？

And I said, how much is it?

他说，一百万美元。

Goes, a million bucks.

我说，一百万美元？

I said, a million bucks.

我说，它哪里有问题？

I said, what's wrong with it?

看起来应该值更多才对。

Seems like it'd be worth more than that.

他说，这只有一半张卡片。

He goes, well, there's only half a card.

他说，被切掉了。

He goes, it's cut off.

他说，这张卡被撕成两半，下半部分不见了。

And he goes, it's been torn in half and the bottom half is missing.

我说，一百万美元？

I said, million bucks?

他说，是的，只是想让你知道，我已经卖掉了。

He goes, yeah, just to let you know, I already sold it.

以一百万美元的价格。

For a million dollars.

所以有些体育纪念品还在热卖，对此我并不否认。

So some of the sports memorabilia is still on fire, which I don't argue for.

我认为科比说过，关于卡片，你在2021年本地峰值卖出了43张超过一百万美元的卡片，但到2026年，我们已经达到了29张。

I think Colby said that for the cards, you had a local peak of 43 cards that sold for over 1,000,000 in 2021, but 2026, we're already at 29.

我们连第一季度都还没过完。

We're not even one quarter in.

如果我们保持这个趋势，应该会打破百万级别的纪录，这太惊人了。

So if we continue on, we should shatter that sort of over a million level, which is astonishing.

这总是让我感到惊讶。

It's always astonishing to me.

这不仅仅是棒球卡，现在还有宝可梦卡和各种其他收藏品。

It's like not just baseball cards, you got Pokemon cards and all sorts of other collectibles today.

关于这一点，我想说两点。

So two things on that.

在体育卡市场上，价格低于十万美元的卡片其实很难卖出去。

On the sports card market, the things under, like, a $100,000 are really difficult to sell.

价格超过十万美金的卡片则非常容易变现。

The cards that are over a 100,000 are very, very liquid.

关于宝可梦卡，据我了解，现在PSA每月鉴定的宝可梦卡数量已经超过体育卡，包括棒球、橄榄球和篮球卡。

The Pokemon cards, PSA, my understanding now is they grade more Pokemon cards every month than they do sports cards, which includes baseball, football, basketball.

所以宝可梦卡是一种全球性的现象，人人都在争相入场。

So the Pokemon card is a worldwide phenomenon that everybody is jumping in on.

但我不会。

Not me.

我还没聪明到能入场参与的地步。

I'm not smart enough to jump in on them.

但说实话，让我花一万美元甚至一百万美元去买一张纸板，我实在难以接受。

But I mean, it's hard for me to pay 10,000 or 1,000,000 for a piece of cardboard.

我不是说这是个糟糕的投资。

I'm not saying it's a bad investment.

我只是说我自己很难接受这一点。

I'm just saying I have difficulty with it.

我几年前曾有一个问题，你可以帮我们梳理一下：在录音开始前，我们聊过钻石，人们从购买天然钻石转向了实验室培育钻石，显然技术进步让后者便宜多了。

One of the questions I had years ago, and you can kinda walk us through on this, Before the start of recording listeners, we were talking about diamonds and how there's been a big shift from people buying natural diamonds to lab grade diamonds, obviously much cheaper technologies catching up.

上次我们聊天时，我问过你，现在还有人给这些卡片做鉴定吗？

And I asked you last time we chatted, said, are people still grading these cards at all?

我觉得电脑就能完成这项工作，而自从我们上次聊天后，AI有了巨大发展，但你当时说，我们三十年前就已经在做这件事了，还有一些有趣的观察。

Like I feel like a computer could do it and since we chatted last time, we've had this big AI push and everything and you were like, but we were doing this thirty years ago and had some interesting observations.

你的看法有改变吗？

Has your opinion changed at all?

人们现在还想要人工鉴定师吗？还是你觉得这种情况可能会开始转变？

Do people still want a human grader or is that something that you think might start to shift a little bit?

好吧，你提到的这种事，我们曾经有个自称是计算机天才的人，能够鉴定硬币，他确实做到了。

Well, what you're talking about, we had a guy who was computer genius supposedly be able to grade coins, which he could.

我们把他安排在比格熊山上的一间小屋里，他在那里住了两年开发这个系统。

We put him in a cabin up in Big Bear, and he lived there for two years developing this thing.

这台计算机每枚硬币能进行大约220万次计算，耗时仅四秒。

And the computer would do, think I it was 2,200,000 calculations in four seconds on every coin.

我们可以鉴定硬币，然后把它拖在车后，再放到计算机前重新检测。

And we could grade the coin, then we could take it and drag it behind a car and put it in front of the computer again.

它会说：‘之前是MS 63，现在受损了。’

It would say, used to be MS 63, now is damaged.

我的意思是，它能记住每一个细节。

I mean, it would remember every single thing.

所以我们确实有这台计算机，但行业并不喜欢它，因为大多数收藏家其实都是赌徒，他们买硬币时，总觉得自己手里的那枚在心理上价值更高、评级也更高，而我们给的评级没那么高。

So we had this computer, but the industry didn't like it because most collectors are just gamblers, and they wanna buy a coin and the one they have their money in is, in their mind, worth more and graded higher than what we graded it.

所以我以前管这叫PCGS彩票，他们进去的时候，就像在买彩票一样。

So there's I used to call it PCGS Lotto where they'd go in and it's like a lottery ticket form.

他们会买下硬币，然后送回来要求重新评级。

They'd buy coins and send them to us for regrade.

有些硬币我们见过，你知道的，十次、二十次、三十次。

Some coins we've seen, you know, ten, twenty, 30 times.

事实上，有一次我卖了一枚硬币给一位经销商，他在上面贴了张标签，写了个‘11’。

In fact, one dealer I sold a coin to one time and he wrote, put a sticker on it, put 11.

我说：‘你可没花1100美元买这枚硬币吧。’

I said, well, you didn't pay $1,100 for that.

他说：‘没有。’

He goes, no.

没有。

No.

我会反复重新评级11次，才肯以同样等级出售，因为我坚信它最终会升一级。

I'll regrade this 11 times before I just sell it at the same grade because I'm convinced it'll go up a grade.

你觉得人工智能在未来能否达到甚至超越我们现在的水平？

Do you think AI has the ability to get as good or or to start to do this in today as we go into the future?

评级系统最终会开始由AI辅助，甚至完全由AI来操作吗？

Will either the grading systems start to be AI assist or totally AI at some point?

这很有趣。

It's funny.

几天前，有个软件工程师给我打过电话，就是关于这个事。

I just had a software guy call me a couple of days ago on this.

我想应该是上个星期四。

I guess it was last Thursday.

他问我，我该怎么设置这个系统？

And he was asking me, he goes, how can I set this up?

他说，因为我们正在研究这个方向，而且是一家大型软件公司。

He goes, because this is one of the things we're looking at, and it's a big software company.

他问我，我就说，那你具体想做什么？

And he go and I said, well, tell me what you're looking to do.

他说，我们就以硬币或棒球卡为例吧。

He goes, well, let's just use coins as an example or baseball cards.

我说，根据我们过去的做法，我相信你可以给他们119美元的9枚SVDB分币，让摄像头观察所有硬币，识别出它们的成色，并在一段时间后通过人工智能完成硬币的评级。

And I said, well, based on what we used to do before, I said, I'm convinced you could give them a $119.00 9 SVDB pennies and the camera could look at all of them and realize the grades of all of them and over a period of time end up being able to grade the coins with AI.

如今的人工智能，其智能水平可能是二十五年或三十年前我们做这件事时的上千倍。

And AI now is probably a multiple of a thousand times smarter than it was when we were doing it twenty five years ago or thirty years.

我想大概是二十五年前或三十年前，我们有了能为硬币评级的计算机。

I think it was twenty five or thirty years ago we had the computer that could grade coins.

所以我认为它可能会朝这个方向发展，但其中涉及很多变量。

So I think it may go to that, but there's a lot of variables.

我的意思是，作为收藏家或经销商，我看硬币时，当我们设定标准时，除非你使用‘未流通状态65级’这种相当高的未流通硬币等级，否则硬币还分为A、B、C、D四个质量等级。

I mean, as a collector or a dealer, I look at coins and so when we set up the standard, unless you use a grade brilliant uncirculated mint state 65, which is a pretty high grade of a brilliant uncirculated coin, there's a, b, c and d quality coins.

我的意思是，有些A级硬币在该等级中堪称完美，而有些硬币虽然评级为65级，但实际质量却像D级，因为它们只是尚可，但并不出色。

I mean, there's a's that are spectacular for the grade and there's coins at grade 65, but they're like D because they're they're okay, but they're not great.

所以我们后来推出了MS 60级的所有等级，以及MS 65级以上的等级。

So then we came up with an MS 60 all grades, but MS 65 plus.

换句话说，这将评定为65.78或65.9这样的高分段等级。

In other words, that would grade 65.78 or nine, which was a higher end.

所以我相信，未来的计算机将能够改变市场，这让我有点害怕，因为我也不确定。

So I'm sure the computers going forward will be able to change the marketplace, which kind of scares me because I don't know.

我觉得真正出色的硬币可能会因此一飞冲天，而那些普通低品相的硬币则会面临困难。

I think really great coins are gonna could go to the moon based on that and the common low grade stuff, you know, will have trouble.

你可以再展开一点，谈谈你认为如今特别有趣的领域。

You can expand this a little bit and talk about any areas that you think are particularly interesting today.

这不仅可以限于硬币。

And this could be not just coins.

也可以是小刀。

It could be pocket knives.

我知道你多年来收藏过各种各样的东西。

I know you've collected all sorts of different stuff over the years.

现在有什么东西特别吸引你吗？

Anything looking particularly interesting to you right now?

被低估的东西。

Undervalued things.

我认为稀有硬币可能是目前最高等级、精心挑选的稀有硬币中最具性价比、被严重低估的物品之一。

I think rare coins are probably one of the most high grade, nice selected rare coins are by far one of the most underpriced or best value items right now.

有些物品价格偏低但没人关注，比如折刀，我就拿这个举例。

Items that are underpriced but nobody cares about, pocket knives, I'll use that as an example.

我买折刀，也收藏折刀。

I buy pocket knives, collect pocket knives.

我不卖它们。

I don't sell them.

我不知道有谁会从我这里买它们。

I don't know anybody who I'd sell them to.

利润太低了。

The margins are terrible.

我的意思是，我知道当我从经销商那里购买时，他们的定价体系是怎样的。

I mean, I I know when I buy them from dealers, know their pricing code.

如果他们以500美元买进一把刀，再以1000美元卖给我，他们的利润率就是100%。

If they buy a knife for 500 and they sell it to me for 1,000, they're making a 100%.

我就说，你根本不能这么做。

And I'm like, you just can't do that.

但如果你真想买的话，情况就是这样。

But that's what that's what it is if I wanna buy them.

如果我不想买，还有二十个来自肯塔基的家伙愿意买。

And if I don't wanna buy them, there's 20 other guys from Kentucky who do wanna buy them.

所以小刀是被低估的物品。

So pocket knives are an undervalued thing.

问题是当你想出售收藏时，收藏家太少了。

The problem is when you go to sell the collection for there's not enough collectors.

我的意思是，你见过我家，我的收藏可能已经翻了一倍甚至三倍了。

I mean, have way too many you've been in my house and I've probably doubled or tripled this.

我可能有一千到一千五百把甚至更多的小刀，都是二十世纪、三十年代、四十年代、五十年代和十八世纪以来的全新品相。

Probably have a thousand or 1,500 or more pocket knives that are all brand new condition from the twenties, thirties, forties, fifties, and the eighteen hundreds.

古董枪械的价格已经涨了不少，但同样，只有真正顶级的藏品才涨得厉害。

Antique firearms are have moved up quite a bit, but there again, it's really great stuff that have moved up.

我一直以来都是老温彻斯特杠杆式步枪和柯尔特单发式步枪这类物品的收藏者。

And I've always been a collector of old Winchester lever actions and Colt single actions and stuff like that.

温彻斯特杠杆式步枪，你知道的，比如1873年、1876年生产的枪，还有像亨利步枪之类的。

The Winchester lever actions, they you know, you have the guns that were made in 1873, 1876, and '18 like a Henry rifle and things like that.

这一类高品质枪械的价格已经涨了很多。

That area of really high quality guns has gone up a lot.

1932年和1933年，他们重新设计了很多枪支，推出了更新、更现代的杠杆式步枪，这些设计基于约翰·勃朗宁的专利等等。

They redesigned a lot of guns in 1932 and '33 and they came out with different lever action guns that were more updated, more modern kind of on John Browning's patents and things like that.

这些枪支的表现还不错，但不算特别出色。

Those guns have done okay, but not great.

但我可以给你举个例子。

But I'll give you an example.

我很久以前买了一把1876年的温彻斯特长步枪，当时是全新的，我坚信它可能是世界上最顶尖的之一，甚至就是最顶尖的。

I bought a 1876 Winchester long years ago that was brand new and I was convinced it was like one of the finest in the world, if not the finest.

我为它花了27,000美元。

And I paid $27,000 for it.

几年后，我的一个朋友说，我想看看它。

And several years later, one of my friends says, you know, I wanna see it.

我说，我不能卖给你。

And I said, well, I can't sell it to you.

他说，不，我不是要买，我只是想看看。

He goes, no, know, but I wanna see it.

我说，不，你看了就会想买。

I said, no, you'll wanna buy it.

我不打算卖它。

I don't wanna sell it.

不管怎样，他最终还是看了它，然后坐在那里仔细端详。

Anyway, he ends up looking at it, and then he's sitting there looking at it.

然后他把枪还给了我。

And he hands it back to me.

他问我，你打算怎么处理它？

He goes, what are you gonna do with it?

我盯着他看。

And I'm looking at him.

我惊讶于它竟然如此精美，因为我喜欢他。

I'm amazed at how nice it is because I like him.

我拿着它在卧室或这个房间的阳光下端详。

I'm holding it in the sunlight in my bedroom or this room.

我说，这是一件很棒的传家宝。

And I said, you know, it's a great heirloom.

这是那种应该留给孩子们的东西。

It's one of those things to leave to my kids.

我说，这是一件了不起的美国历史文物，等等。

I said it's a great piece of Americana history and everything else.

我说，这全是手工制作的。

I said it's all handmade.

这些是工具。

These were tools.

它们没有被保存下来。

They weren't saved.

这个是全新状态，制造于1879年。

This one's in brand new condition made in '18 it was made in 1879.

总之，他问，这东西值多少钱？

Anyway, he goes, I mean, what's it worth?

我说，我不知道，三万五千到四万美元吧。

I said, I don't know, 35,000, 40,000.

我说，我几年前花两万七千美元买的。他问，如果有人想坑我，这东西能值多少？

I said, I bought it years ago for 27,000 He goes, I mean, if somebody went to screw me, how how much would it be worth?

我说，我不知道。

I said, I don't know.

他说，不是的。

He goes, no.

如果你打算坑我，我可以告你。

If if you were gonna overcharge me, I could sue you.

我说，我开始笑起来了。

I said, I started laughing.

我说，我不知道，六万美元。

I said, I don't know, 60,000.

他说，我给你九万美元。

He goes, I'll give you 90,000.

我公文包里有现金，如果你要卖的话。

I've got cash in my briefcase if you wanna sell it.

所以，给你吧。

So here you go.

你知道吗，那是二十七年前的事了。

You know, it's twenty seven years ago.

我说，我不能以这个价格拥有它。

I go, well, I can't own it for that.

它值太多了。

It was worth too much.

所以它最近在几年前的拍卖会上售出了，我当时觉得它值35万，也就是当时的价值，35到40万之间。

So it recently sold an auction a couple of years ago and realized I thought it was worth 35, which is what it was worth at the time, 35 to 40.

他需要它。

He'd need it.

他说，他是个亿万富翁。

He goes, I'd go my he was a billionaire.

他说，他说，我这一辈子都再也找不到第二个了。

He goes, he goes, I'd go my whole life and never find another one.

所以他讲，你知道，它对我来说是值得的，因为我早上起床赚的比这还多。

So he goes, you know, it's worth it to me because I make more than this getting up in the morning.

所以这把枪几年前在拍卖会上以大约23万美元的价格售出，然后大约五六个月前又出现了一把。

So the gun sold an auction for, I think, 230,000 a couple of years ago, then another one popped up about six months ago or five months ago.

拍卖公司给我打了电话，问我：‘你想竞拍这把吗？’

And the auction company called me and they said, do you want to bid on this?

我说：‘不。'

I said, no.

我说，这超出了我的预算，而且已经以32万美元卖出去了。

I said, it's you out of my price range and it's sold for 320,000.

所以，那些真正精美、高品相的枪械——无论是欧洲猎枪、温彻斯特步枪，还是高品相的柯尔特手枪，只要是收藏品，都非常抢手，但它们的价格已经大幅上涨。

So the really fine high grade, whether they're European shotguns or Winchester rifles or high grade Colts or things that are collectible are very desirable, but they have moved up in price.

体育卡牌我很难评估它们的价值，因为它们涨得太厉害了。

Sports cards, I have trouble with the values just because they've gone up so much.

这真是个绝佳的教训，你知道吗？这同样适用于股票，当你看一家公司时，会想，嘿，我觉得它的估值应该是这样，但如果有人愿意出双倍甚至三倍的价格，你有什么资格说不呢？

That's such a great lesson, you know, is that you have I mean, this applies to stocks too, you know, where you look at a company, say, hey, this is what I think the valuation is, but if there's somebody out there willing to pay double or triple, who are you to say?

在某种程度上，这对所有持有资产的人来说都是个挑战——无论是交易员、投资者还是收藏家，你都该提前想好一个价格点：嘿，我会放手吗？

And at some point, that's the challenge for all of us holding onto anything as a trader, as someone investor collector, there's a price that you should think about ahead of time where you're like, hey, would I let this go?

有些东西你可能会说，看，我永远不会卖它，不管怎样。

And there's some things you may say, look, I'll never sell this, whatever.

但在其他情况下，有人就像你提到的那样，对价格不敏感，也不太在意谈判过程。

But in other cases, there's someone out there who, like you mentioned, the person who's not particularly price sensitive on what the negotiation might be.

你最大的遗憾是什么？这可能会让你触景生情，但有没有哪件东西你放走了，结果它的价值却一飞冲天？这肯定排得上号。

What would be your biggest this may be too painful to give you PTSD, but something that you kind of let go and then kind of went went vertical is is that that's gotta be up there.

不。

No.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，尤其是在硬币方面，我卖过很多珍贵的硬币，我记得有一位客户发明了CADCAM计算机软件，我卖给他一套1793年的花环硬币。

I mean, especially in coins, you know, mean, I've sold so many great coins and I, I remember that one of my clients invented CADCAM computer software and I sold them a 1793 wreath set.

那大概是85年或86年左右，卖了五万美元。后来这枚硬币在几年前以230万美元或130万美元——我记不太清了——的价格售出。

This would have been in, I want to say '85, '86, something like that for $50,000 And the coin sold a couple years ago for, I heard 2,300,000.0 or 1,300,000.0 or some.

那并不是我会保留的东西。

It wasn't anything I would have kept.

我收藏和购买两类不同的东西。

I collect and buy two different things.

第一类，是我真正喜欢的东西。

One, I collect things I really like.

我喜欢手工制作的、实用的工具，比如小刀、枪械之类的。

And I like things that are handmade, you know, that were functional tools like a pocket knife, a gun, you know, things like that.

我还会收集那些被过度炒作但价格太低的东西。

And I also collect things that are too oversold and they're too cheap.

上次我们聊天时，我一直在思考一件事，你在一些如今出售的收藏品上也能看到这种现象——我们几年前在你家时，曾讨论过哪些收藏品会成为下一代人渴望的物品。

When we chatted last time, one of the things I think a lot about and you see a little bit on some of the collectibles that sell today, where we were talking, we were your house years ago and we're talking about like, you know, hey, thinking about collectibles that'll be desirable for the next generation.

就是那些他们小时候特别向往的东西。

So things that they coveted when they were kids.

所以你现在开始看到像未拆封的iPod，或者未拆封的超级马里奥任天堂游戏这类东西，这些都是我曾经亲身体验过的。

And so you're starting to see things like, hey, this is an unwrapped iPod or this is an unwrapped Super Mario Nintendo game, things that I would have could have experienced.

但正如你提到的，其他国家和人口群体的兴衰，比如中国人、美洲原住民，或者那些资金流入或流出的人群。

But also, as you mentioned a little waxing and waning of other countries and demographics, whether it's Chinese, Native American, or people that are coming into and out of money.

你认为有哪些趋势或领域特别有趣？或者你看到全球范围内资金开始特别关注哪些方向？

What are some trends or areas that you think are particularly interesting or that you're seeing kind of money really start to focus on globally as well?

可能是钱币。

It could be coins.

也可能只是，比如我们正看到大量印度资金涌入，因为这个国家正在崛起，或者有很多人突然富裕起来。

It could just be, you know, hey, we're seeing a ton of Indian money come in because the country is really ascending or a lot of people coming into money.

随便吧。

Whatever.

随便你怎么说。

Take it any any direction.

其中一个一直很受欢迎、而且可能还会继续受欢迎的领域是复古手表和收藏手表，尽管我觉得这些东西的价格已经涨了不少。

One of the areas that's been very popular and probably is gonna remain very popular, although I think a lot of this stuff has gone up quite a bit in prices, you know, vintage watches and collectible watches.

有趣的是，所谓新复古风格其实是来自80年代的。

Funny part is neo vintage is like from the '80s.

这其实算不上古老。

It's not really old.

在钱币方面，我基本上不碰二战之后的东西。

Mean, in coins, I really don't handle much after World War II.

所以对我来说，它们都是新产品。

So to me, they're new products.

你当然可以买20年代制造的手表，但它们很难维修，因为零配件都找不到了。

And you can't really you can, but if you buy watches that were made in the '20s, they're hard to get repaired because they don't have parts and things like that.

旧的怀表实际上被严重低估了。

And old pocket watches old pocket watches are actually very underpriced.

它们几乎没有什么市场。

There's just almost no market for them.

但在这方面你必须专业化。

But in those you have to specialize.

几周前我本来打算竞拍一块，结果那人把拍卖结果发给了我。

Like I I was gonna bid on one a couple of weeks ago and the guy just sent me the results of this auction.

有一块旧的黄金猎表，意思是金制表壳可以打开，而在12点、3点、6点和9点的位置，我想是国王、A、皇后、杰克，也就是扑克牌的图案。

There was an old gold hunter's case which meant, you know, the gold case opened and and they're in on the the 12, the three, the six, and the nine were I think it was king, ace, queen, jack, you know, playing cards on it.

那是一块为老赌徒定制的旧表。

Was an old gambler's watch that he had made.

像这样的东西非常受欢迎。

I mean, things like that are very desirable.

你和这么多人交谈过，我们在这档播客里没提到过，但你接触过那么多亿万富翁和名人。

You talk to so many people and we don't talk about on this pod, but so many billionaires and famous people that you talk to.

这总是很有趣，因为你的生活节奏和我不一样，你知道的，关于新闻、你接触的人以及他们在做什么。

It's just it's always interesting because you're in a different flow than I am on, you know, news and who you're talking to and what they're doing.

确实很有趣。

It is interesting.

现在很多人，我一个来自国外的朋友跟我说，你觉得iPhone怎么样？

A lot of the people today, one of my friends who is from out of the country, he was saying to me, he goes, what do think about iPhones?

我说，我的手机简直让人头疼。

And I go, well, mine's a pain in the ass.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我总是用不好这玩意儿，发短信也老出问题。

You know, I always have trouble working the thing and I have trouble texting and everything.

他说，不，我一直在收藏它们。

He goes, no, I've been collecting them.

我说，可这东西太多了。

And I said, well, there's so many.

他说，我知道，我不记得他有没有说他有四个或五个。

He goes, I know I've got I can't remember if he said he's got four or five of them.

那些最初的iPhone，还原封不动地装在盒子里，没打开过——回到你刚才提到的关于未开封产品的问题。

The first iPhone ones that are still sealed in the box never opened, back to your question where you were just talking about sealed products.

我说，那些值多少钱？

And I said, what are those worth?

他说，我第一个花了七万，第二个花了八万，因为我觉得第三个花了六万，第四个花了五万左右。

He goes, well, I paid 70,000 for my first one, 80,000 for my second one because I think I paid 60,000 for my third one and 50,000 for my fourth one or something.

他说，我只是买它们，因为我觉得它们会成为历史。

He goes, I just buy them because I think they're gonna go down his history.

我的一个客户实际上是苹果公司排名前三或前四的人物。

And one of one of my clients is actually one of the top three or four people in Apple.

我跟他说了这事，他直接笑起来了。

And I told him and he just started laughing.

他说，嗯，这大概是真的。

He goes, well, that's probably true.

你知道，人们往往会收集他们成长过程中接触的东西。

You know, people tend to collect what they grew up with.

我们往往听的是自己成长时的音乐。

We tend to listen to the music we grew up with.

我的意思是，我当然不会在八十岁的时候还听泰德·肯尼迪或者肯尼迪乐队之类的音乐，不管那是什么。

I mean, you know, I'm not necessarily gonna be listening to the Ted Kennedy or the Kennedys or you know, the Ted Kennedy band or whatever when I'm in my eighties.

不过现在离那时候也不远了。

Although that's not that far away now.

我可能会吧。

I may be.

不会。

No.

我不听。

I don't.

但是

But

是的。

Yeah.

你可能会。

You might.

人们往往会收集自己成长过程中熟悉的东西。

You tend to collect what you knew growing up with and stuff.

我觉得，但很多大笔资金——据我了解，有三个人。

And I think but a lot of the a lot of the big money, I know there's a couple of guys who are my understanding is three guys.

我认识其中一位，和他们谈过好几次，他们非常非常富有，有自己的私人飞机等等，据说他们正在筹备一个钱币博物馆，想收购全球各种类型的钱币。

I know one of them, and I've talked to them several times, are very, very wealthy, you know, with their own jets and everything, and they're supposed to be putting together a money museum trying to buy all the different coins, I think worldwide of every variety and every type.

一位加拿大的大矿主曾经——我不能说出他的名字，但多年前他第一次联系我时说，他想建立一个博物馆，收藏世界上所有曾对黄金产生过影响的硬币。

And a big mining guy in Canada one time who's I can't say his name, but when he first approached me years ago, he said, just wanna put together a museum of every coin worldwide that's ever made a difference in gold.

我说，你什么意思？

And I said, what do you mean?

他说，每个国家，所有种类。

He goes, every country, everything.

他自己已经创建了一个相当庞大的收藏品收藏。

And he's created a pretty big museum collection of his own.

这并不是一个对公众开放的博物馆，但另外那三位人士正计划建造一座钱币博物馆，我猜可能会在南卡罗来纳州或类似的地方，让公众能够进去参观各种各样的货币，因为货币是世界上每个人围绕的核心，而看到货币的不同形态非常有意思。

It's not a museum that anybody can go to, but this other group of three guys, they're actually going to build a money museum, I'm guessing in South Carolina or someplace like that to where the public can go in and see all the different types of money because money is really the number one thing in the world that everybody rotates around and seeing the different forms of money.

你知道，过去印第安人用的是珠子之类的东西。

You know, it used to be beads with Indians and things like that.

这是个很棒的主意。

That's a great idea.

我们总是会想到一些具有多重用途的有趣点子。

We always think about these fun kind of ideas where there's multiple purposes.

曾经有一家叫Rally的公司，主要从事证券化拍卖，我记得他们一度被收购了，但现在又重新启动了。看看他们做的一些事情挺有趣的，他们似乎在纽约设有一个展示厅，有些公司会说：嘿，我们或许可以通过这些收藏品获得额外的替代性收入，同时还能让它们变成不仅吸引兴趣、还能让人前来参观的东西。

There was a company called Rally that was doing a lot of auctions for securitizing and I think they got recapped and then they're starting again, but it's fun to watch some of the things they do, but they were kind of had a, I think, a New York showroom and there's some of these companies they're like, hey, you know, we can maybe get some additional alternatives income on maybe having these collectibles but also potentially making it something that not only drives the interest but that people could come see.

我仍然认为，在收藏品领域，尤其是钱币方面，可能还存在一些封闭式基金的空间，这让我感到惊讶的是至今尚未发展起来。

I still think there's probably some closed end fun room for collectibles particularly on the coin side that I'm surprised hasn't developed.

过去确实发生过。

It's happened in the past.

曾经有公司或银行，比如美林，组建了一个基金，专门收购大量硬币，你可以投资这个基金，但那个家伙后来进了监狱。

There's been company or banks and stuff Merrill Lynch put together a fund and where they would build a big portfolio of coins and you could invest in the fund and and the guy went to prison.

我现在想不起他叫什么名字了。

I can't remember what his name was now.

他曾经在八九十年代拥有过国王队，不管他叫什么名字。

Owned the Kings for whatever his name was back in the eighties or nineties.

但总有人朝这个方向发展，因为在我看来，一切最终都会回归到大宗商品和货币，这正是世界运行的基础。

But there's always movement towards that because, you know, everything kinda goes back to commodities and money in my mind, and that's sort of what, you know, the world is based on.

我的客户里确实有人来买中国硬币。

I mean, I get people in here want Chinese coins.

事实上，我跟你说个有趣的故事。

They want in fact, I'll tell you a funny story.

我曾经有个客户，她和她丈夫一直很支持美国硬币。

I had a gal one time who was a good client for US coins, her and her husband.

有一天我们吃午饭时，她说自己刚从香港飞过来。

And one day, we were having lunch, and she said she had flown in from Hong Kong.

她问：‘你能帮我弄到这些硬币吗？任何这些硬币？’

And she goes, can you get me any of these coins, any of these coins?

我说：‘你干嘛想戴个光头中国人的硬币在脖子上？’

And I I said, well, what do you want some coin of a bald Chinese guy on your around your neck for?

她回答：‘那是我祖父。’

And she goes, well, that was my grandfather.

我说：‘你祖父？’

I go, your grandfather?

他答：‘是的。’

He goes, yeah.

他是中国末代皇帝。

He's he's he's the ex emperor of China.

我说：‘哦，那你真是富得不得了。’

And I go, oh, you're like really rich.

你知道，有时候你会忘记跟谁说话，你根本不知道我是谁，我从不问别人是做什么的，但你知道吧？

You know, you forget sometimes who you're talking to and you don't know who I don't ever ask people what they do, but it you know?

所以，就封闭式基金或基金而言，我认为会有很多人这么做，因为金属价格涨得这么厉害，似乎每个人都想转向某种有形资产，而硬币是非常有形的。

So there is a as far as a closed end fund or a fund, there's a lot of people I think who will be doing that because, you know, with the metals moving up so much, it just seems like everybody's gonna be moving towards some type of tangible product, and coins are pretty tangible.

收藏品也很有形，不只是硬币。

Collectibles are pretty tangible, not just coins.

你想买那些具有跨领域收藏价值的东西。

You wanna buy things that are cross collected.

你知道，我收藏的东西之一是印第安和平奖章。

I I like as you know, one of the things I collect is Indian peace medals.

这些奖章是由美国造币厂铸造的。

Well, you have they were made by the US Mint.

它们由总统颁发给印第安部落首领。

They were given from presidents to Indian chiefs.

最早的奖章颁给了刘易斯和克拉克，他们带着这些奖章外出，亲手交给印第安首领，并说：我们的首领愿与你们的首领和平共处。

The first ones were given to Lewis and Clark, and they took them out and handed them to Indian chiefs and basically said, our chief is at peace with your chief.

因此，这些奖章在钱币收藏圈里非常受欢迎。

So those are very collectible in the numismatic circle.

它们在总统收藏家中非常受欢迎。

They're very collectible with the presidential collectors.

它们在收藏美国金属的人群中也很有价值。

They're very collectible with the metal collectors of US metals.

它们对美洲原住民来说也非常有收藏价值。

They're very collectible by the Native Americans.

你知道，这些都是美国历史的绝佳见证。

You know, they're great pieces of US history.

这些值多少钱？

What do those go for?

它们的数量不多。

There's not that many of them.

是的。

No.

它们的价格可能从六七千美元起，然后继续上涨。

They're probably started 6 or $7,000 and go up.

我的意思是，像华盛顿金属币，据我所知大概只有二三十枚存世，除了两三枚之外，其他的都在博物馆里。我知道有个人手里有一枚，他认为自己的这枚价值数百万，他可能说得没错，因为他曾拒绝了一千万的报价，因为他并不缺钱。

I mean, like the Washington metals, there's, I wanna say 20 or 30 known, but they're all in museums except two or three, you know, and so that I know the guy who has one of them and he thinks his is, you know, probably worth millions and he's probably right because he turned down 10,000,000 for one of his coins because he he doesn't need the money.

真的有很多钱在寻找真正的藏品。

There there's real money out there to buy real things.

我正试着弄清楚这是否在预算范围内。

I was trying to figure figure out if it fits into the budget.

对于正在听这段对话的人，我猜有很多人和我一样，心里想着：天啊。

For people that are listening to this that are just like I imagine there's a lot of y'all that are just like, oh, man.

这唤起了那种童年的惊奇感。

Like, this brings out this, like, childhood wonder.

我觉得这非常有趣，而且实实在在。

I think it's super interesting, but also tangible.

他们能直接上你们的网站购买硬币吗，还是得打电话给你们？

Like, can they go to your website and just buy the coins or do they need to call you guys?

比如，如果你去找大卫·霍尔，该怎么做？

Like, if you go to David Hall, what's the route?

有人说，好吧。

Somebody's like, alright.

我有10美元。

Got $10.

我有20美元。

I got $20.

我有100美元。

I got a $100.

我有一百万美元。

I got a million bucks.

随便吧。

Whatever.

打电话给我更方便。

Easier to call me and ask me.

我的确有个网站。

I mean, I have a website.

我的库存大约每十一天轮换一次，主要是稀有硬币，有些东西可能会放上几个月。

My inventory rotates about every eleven days on rare coins, and some things will sit there for a couple months.

但通常，如果一件商品在六十天或九十天内没卖出去，我就觉得大家都买过了，然后我会清仓处理掉。

But usually, if it doesn't sell in sixty days or ninety days, I figure everybody sold it, and then I'll just blow it out and get rid of it.

是的。

Yeah.

我的意思是，我卖得好东西的周转率相当高，但是

I mean, I I have a pretty high turnover on nice stuff, but

我脑子里也不知道为什么。

I would, in my head, I don't know why.

我只是以为会花上好几年，但实际上挺快的。

I just would assumed it would have been years, but it's pretty quick.

哦，对的。

Oh, yeah.

我经营的是流动性非常强的产品。

Very I I deal on a very liquid product.

我不是做仓储生意的，梅布。

I'm not in the storage business, Meb.

我尽量买一些非常好的东西，比如我去过长滩钱币展。

I try and buy really nice stuff, and like I went to the Long Beach coin.

大卫和我曾经拥有长滩钱币展，后来它并入了我们的上市公司，之后关闭了，现在我的一位前商业伙伴重新开了这个展，我大概一个月前，或者三四周前去了一次。

David and I used to own the Long Beach coin show, and they went with our public company, and then they closed it, and now one of my ex business partners reopened it, and I went to there, I wanna say a month ago, maybe three or four weeks ago.

我不确定。

I don't know.

我走进去后，一位经销商过来找我，因为我们一直以出售高品质的A级和B级硬币闻名，而不是C级和D级的。

And I walked in and one dealer came up because we always had a reputation of selling really great coins, As and B quality, not Cs and Ds.

他坐下来就开始买东西。

And he spent he sat down and started buying stuff.

我在展会上待了四天，第一天就发现他可能占了我90%的销售额。

And I was at the show for four days and I realized the first day he was probably 90% of my sales.

他直接从我这里买了一箱箱硬币，因为他有客户专门收藏高品质的硬币。

He just bought boxes of coins from me because he has clients for really nice stuff.

如果针对优质物品来说，这是一个相当活跃的市场。

And it's a pretty active market if that makes sense for good things.

你已经看到许多现代公司进入这个领域。

You've seen a bunch of kind of modern companies entrance into the field.

你作为行业老手已经在这里很久了，但你现在也看到像Fanatics这样的公司进入卡片市场。

You've been here for as an incumbent for a long time, but you've got stuff like, you know, fanatics moving into the card space.

他们几年前以大约十亿美元的价格收购了Tops。

I mean, they bought tops for like half 1,000,000,000 a few years ago.

你还能看到其他公司。

You see other companies.

发生了什么变化？

What has changed?

这种变化更多是发生在流通量大的低端产品上吗？

Is that more on kind of the lower end as far as like the widely circulated stuff?

在高端市场，是不是还是你们和其他一些传统玩家主导？

Like at the high end, is it more kinda y'all and some other traditional players?

或者，这些大型传统企业是如何改变现状的，如果有的话？

Or, like, how how is how are these big kinda more traditional corporations changing thing, if at all?

我不知道。

I don't know.

我的意思是，他们推出新产品，然后从新产品中获得自己的利润率。

I mean, they sell a new product, and so they make, you know, whatever their margin is on a new product.

他们还签了很多名人，让这些名人签名，比如篮球之类的物品。

And a lot of stuff they have where they sign up celebrities, and the celebrities will sign, like, basketballs and stuff.

因为我们的产品的一部分是PSA DNA，我们会验证签名的真实性。

Because part of our product was PSA DNA, where we would authenticate that the autograph was real.

我们曾经有一笔交易，我觉得是Upper Deck通过我们做的，他们必须亲自来签名。

And we had a deal one time that I think Upper Deck did it through us, where they had to come in and sign.

持续了一个半月左右，科比·布莱恩特每隔几天就来我们办公室签名，签了数百个篮球。

And for like a month and a half, we had Kobe Bryant come in our office every couple of days signing, you know, a few 100 basketballs.

我觉得他当时签了8000个篮球。

I think he signed 8,000 basketballs at the time.

当然，我当时不够聪明，没留下一个，但对我来说，他只是另一个篮球运动员。

Of course, I wasn't smart enough to keep one, but to me, it was just another basketball player.

但新产品总是新的，而且所有东西都被保存下来了。

But the new product is always new and everything's being saved.

较老的东西，无论是旧体育卡，还是1975年以后的任何体育卡，都变得非常普遍且流动性很差。

The older things, whether they're old sports cards or, you know, anything sports cards after about 1975 becomes pretty common and pretty illiquid.

从19世纪初一直到早期的费城和高迪卡片，这类老物件始终会有强劲的需求。

Older things all the way back to early nineteen hundreds, the February and Gaudi cards and things like that, is always gonna have a strong demand.

我不知道未来五到十年价格会如何变化。

I don't know what the prices are gonna do for the next five or ten years.

它们可能还会继续上涨。

They may continue to go up.

但我更倾向于购买那些已经拥有成熟记录、被证明是收藏品的东西。

But I prefer buying things that already have a track record that has, you know, that has been proven as a collectible.

我收藏绘画，特别是水彩画，因为我觉得它们被低估了。

I collect paintings, watercolors specifically, because I felt they were underpriced.

这很有趣，因为我几乎所有的东西都是从这位经销商那里买的，他一直说，你得坚持买1960年以前的东西。

It was funny because the dealer who I buy almost everything from, he kept saying, you need to stay with stuff prior to 1960.

他表现得好像这是一个生死攸关的截止日期似的。

And he was just acting like this was this big drop dead date.

最后有一天，我问他：那70年代和80年代的艺术家呢？

And I said finally, one day, I said, about artists in the '70s and '80s?

他回答：那种东西你真的没法买。

He goes, well, you can't really buy that stuff.

太新了。

It's too new.

我说：天啊，我们上高中的时候，二战感觉就像是一百万年前的事了。

I said, jeez, when we were in high school, World War II was like a million years ago.

但那其实才过去二三十年而已。

But that was only twenty or twenty five years ago.

而他却把80年代的东西当成是刚出的新品。

And he said, you're talking about the '80s like it's brand new.

我说，那是四十年前的事了。

I said, it's forty years ago.

很快，我就想通了。

And pretty soon, it clicked.

一些七八十年代的艺术家作品如今变得非常有收藏价值，尤其是在现代艺术品中。

And some of these artists from the seventies and eighties have become very collectible, especially in the modern stuff.

我的意思是，那些描绘人物和类似事物的画作。

Know, I'm talking about paintings that are of people and things like that.

但有些现代艺术简直疯狂，尽管这个市场现在已经明显降温了。

But, you know, some of the modern art has just gone insane, although that market has now softened quite a bit.

我也明白。

I understand also.

当我试图回想全球金融危机时，我经常开这个玩笑，心里想，哦，那才七年前、十年前的事。

I make that joke quite a bit when I'm like trying to think back to the global financial crisis and in my head, it's like, oh, it's only like seven years ago, ten years ago.

等等。

Wait a minute.

你知道，现在连算账都算不清了。

You know, it's it's can't even do the math anymore.

然后是15年，很快就要到20年了，这真是个有意思的时间点。

Then it was 15 and then pretty soon we're coming up on 20, which is an interesting point.

我想知道，美国到现在已经持续了整整17年的繁荣。

I wonder The US has been on a pretty incredible run for now, seventeen years.

我很想知道，当我们经历不可避免的经济衰退和熊市时，这个世界这一部分会受到多大影响。

I'd be curious to see as we go through the inevitable recession, the inevitable bear market, how much this part of the world gets affected.

其中一些显然是不受商业周期影响的，有些和贵金属有关，而我猜，在高端收藏品领域，比如艺术品和其他东西，可能和由股市屡创新高所创造的可支配财富有关——如果这些财富缩水50%的话。

Some of it is obviously business cycle independent and some of it's more precious metals related and some of it, I imagine on the higher end collectible like art and other things probably is related to some of the discretionary wealth may be generated by things like stocks at all time highs, you know, that goes down 50%.

人们可能会停止购买伦勃朗之类的画作，或者不再关注，但我早在两、五、十年前就做过类似的预测，你知道，但这些情况至今都没发生。

People might stop buying, you know, a Rembrandt or whatever it may be or stop looking, but I could have made that argument two, five, ten years ago as well, you know, and it hasn't it hasn't happened yet.

根据我所看到的，让我们以金融危机为例，当时一切全崩了。

Well, based on what I've seen, and let's use the great financial crisis when that happened, you know, everything melted.

没人知道LIBOR是什么。

Nobody knew what LIBOR was.

我的意思是，你知道的，我们其实什么都不知道。

I mean, it you know, no we didn't know anything.

黄金价格下跌了，这谁都没料到，但它是当时唯一能快速变现的资产。

And gold went down, which nobody expected to go down, but it was the only liquid thing people had.

有很多人打电话给我，卖掉了大量黄金，因为他们收到了追加保证金的通知。

And I had people calling and selling lots of gold because they had margin calls.

我不得不在当天或第二天往不同的经纪公司汇款，因为那是他们唯一能迅速变现的资产。

And I had to wire money to different brokerage firms, you know, that day or the next day because it was the one liquid thing that they had.

但回到那时候，我跟一个朋友、熟人聊天，他是八十年代的垃圾债券之王之一。

But back like that, I was talking to a friend, an acquaintance who was, you know, like the junk bond king of the eighties and or one of the junk bond kings of the eighties.

就在那个时候，我们聊天时，我问他：你觉得会发生什么？

And it is at that right at that time, I we were talking, I said, what do you think is gonna happen?

他说：范，真正成功的人最多只会损失30%。

He goes, well, Van, the really successful people will only lose 30%.

因为其他人会损失更多。

Because other people will lose more.

他说，但你要明白，这里没有任何安全港。

He goes, but realize there's there's no safety harbor here.

所有东西都会下跌。

Everything's gonna go down.

只是取决于什么东西跌得最厉害。

It just depends on what's gonna go down the most.

事实确实如此，因为大多数收藏品的买家像我一样，仍然会购买。

And that was true because most of the collectibles there were collectors like me who would still buy.

我在出价时更谨慎了吗？

Was I more cautious on the price that I would pay?

是的。

Yeah.

也许吧。

Maybe.

我的意思是，如果有人给我提供一件古董枪之类的东西，或者我一直想要的印第安文物，突然有人拿出来了，我可能愿意出比以前更高的价格，因为这种东西以前从没出现过。

I mean, if somebody offered me, let's say, an antique gun or something like that or an Indian piecemeal or something that I I'd always wanted and somebody popped up with one, I probably would have paid more than I would have paid before because it didn't ever pop up before.

不过它确实让一些东西变得可得，但我认为在熊市中一切都会下跌，你知道吗？我前几天还跟一个五十多岁的小伙子聊过。

It does make things available though, but I think everything goes down in a bear market and, you know, if you listen to some of the I was talking to a guy the other day, a kid in his 50s.

他说，你不明白。

He goes, you don't understand.

股市永远不会回调。

The stock market's never going to correct.

你还年轻，对吧？

You are young, aren't you?

天哪。

Oh, man.

这个假设太危险了。

That's a dangerous assumption right there.

没错。

Exactly.

我的意思是，你只要把钱放进指数基金，就再也不用管了。

I mean, it was you could just put it in index funds and never look back.