以色列为何可能被迫停止：希拉·埃弗隆谈战争、疲惫与内塔尼亚胡的战略

大家好，我是iHeartMedia的董事长兼首席执行官鲍勃·皮特曼，我将开启我的播客《营销前沿的数学与故事》全新一季。

Hi, I'm Bob Pittman, chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia, and I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast, Math and Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing.

《数学与魔法》带您深入了解最大型企业与行业，并分享营销领域最聪明头脑的洞见。

Math and Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries while sharing insights from the smartest minds in marketing.

本季《数学与魔法》将邀请液体死亡公司的首席执行官迈克·塞萨里奥。

Coming up this season on Math and Magic, CEO of Liquid Death, Mike Cesario.

人们以为创意就像淋浴时突然闪现的灵感，仿佛是瞬间迸发的光芒，但实际上它更像一件石雕作品。

People think that creative ideas are like these light bulb moments that happen when you're in the shower, where it's really like a stone sculpture.

你一直在不断雕琢、不断打磨。

You're constantly just chipping away and refining.

Take Two Interactive的首席执行官斯特劳斯·泽尔尼克，以及我们公司的首席业务官丽莎·科菲。

Take Two Interactive CEO, Strauss Zelnick, and our own chief business officer, Lisa Coffey.

请在iHeartRadio应用、Apple播客或您收听播客的任何平台收听《数学与魔法》。

Listen to math and magic on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

嗨。

Hey.

这是亚历克·鲍德温。

It's Alec Baldwin.

在这个季节的我的播客里，是这样的。

This season on my podcast, here's the thing.

我采访了作曲家马克·沙曼。

I talked to composer Mark Shaman.

讲的是相处的感觉。

It's about the hang.

就是和身边的人待在一起的愉悦。

It's the pleasure of hanging out with the people that you're with.

你知道，我和罗布总是相处得很愉快。

You know, Rob and I was always a great hang.

还有记者克里斯·惠普尔。

And journalist Chris Whipple.

每一位白宫工作人员都工作在一个被称为西翼的封闭环境中，而在特朗普的白宫里，这种封闭感更是成倍增加。

Every White House staffer, they work in a bubble called the West Wing, and it's exponentially more so in the Trump White House.

在iHeartRadio应用或您收听播客的任何平台收听《Here's the Thing》的新一季。

Listen to the new season of Here's the Thing on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

彭博音频工作室。

Bloomberg Audio Studios.

播客。

Podcasts.

广播。

Radio.

新闻。

News.

当特朗普总统说我们结束了，以色列也将完蛋。

When President Trump says we're done, Israel is gonna be done.

以色列人可能会对这一结果感到失望，因为协议并不是以色列所青睐的。

Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an agreement is not something that Israel favors.

希拉·埃弗龙谈以色列人如何看待与伊朗的战争以及政治上的得失。

Shira Efron on how Israelis see the war with Iran and what's at stake politically.

以色列即将举行选举，这是否是总理发动这场战争时的考量因素之一？

Is the fact that there's an election coming in Israel part of the prime minister's calculation in starting this war?

在以色列，人们普遍认为这种持续的战争状态也有助于总理的政治目标。

There is a sense in Israel that this perpetual state of war also serves the prime minister's political objectives.

这是一个推迟选举的好理由，尤其是当民意调查显示你不太可能再次获胜时。

This is a good reason to keep postponing elections, especially if oil pulling shows that you're not likely to win again.

来自《彭博周末》，这是米沙尔·侯赛因秀。

From Bloomberg Weekend, this is the Mishal Husain Show.

我是米沙尔·侯赛因。

I'm Mishal Husain.

中东的新闻头条再次迅速变化。

Once again, the headlines have been moving fast on The Middle East.

变化之快，以至于有时几乎难以分辨真相究竟在哪里。

So fast that, at times, it's been nearly impossible to work out where the truth actually lies.

一会儿是美国威胁轰炸发电厂，一会儿又转向与伊朗达成协议。

One moment there's a US threat to bomb power plants, then a pivot towards a deal with Iran.

这让我们思考，美国在意图上的这种不可预测性对以色列意味着什么？

Which made us think, where does that unpredictability on U.

S.

S.

意图上的这种不可预测性对以色列意味着什么？

Intentions leave Israel?

民调显示，大约80%的以色列人支持对伊朗的战争，这也是我们在这次对话中探讨的内容之一。

Opinion polls have suggested that around 80% of Israelis support the Iran war, and that's part of what we explore in this conversation.

我们邀请到的是希拉·埃弗龙，她过去二十年来一直担任中东问题分析师。

It's with Shira Efron, who's been a Middle East Analyst for the last twenty years.

她现在是兰德公司以色列政策领域的杰出主席，兰德公司获得的大部分资金来自美国政府和美军。

She's now distinguished chair for Israel policy at RAND, a think tank which gets much of its funding from the US government and the US military.

我曾在另一个播客中听到她说自己更关注政策而非政治，但我们还是谈到了政治领导力、今年晚些时候即将举行的以色列大选，以及摩萨德、伊朗、以色列在黎巴嫩的行动、加沙和约旦河西岸的局势。

I'd heard her say on another podcast that she's more about policy than politics, but we did talk about political leadership, the Israeli election, expected later this year and also about the Mossad and Iran what Israel is doing in Lebanon the situation in Gaza and on the West Bank.

不过，我们首先从希拉本人谈起，因为经历了这几周的战争后，我确实想知道这对她在特拉维夫的生活产生了怎样的影响。

We began, though, with Shira herself because after these weeks of war, I did want to know what the impact had been on her life in Tel Aviv.

外界观众往往把以色列和美国视为这里的侵略者，却忽视了伊朗对其他人造成的破坏，忘记了以色列也有其人性的一面，无论以色列在这场战争中扮演什么角色。

It's lost on outside audiences who see Israel and The US as the aggressors here, right, and look at the the damage that Iran is inflicting on everyone else to forget there is a human dimension also in Israel regardless of the role in this war.

我想说的是，就我个人而言，我们还好。

I will say it on the personal level, we are fine.

愿上帝保佑。

God bless.

你知道，我们家里有个防空洞，搬进这栋房子时，我们从没想过会用上它。

You know, we have a bomb shelter at home that we when we moved into this house, we never thought we would use.

但自从去年10月7日以来，它成了我们全家最常待的房间。

But past October 7, it's been the room most frequented in the house by all of us.

所以生活又回到了常态，只是压力巨大。

So it's back to routine, quite heavy hitting.

我们住在以色列中部的特拉维夫。

We live in the central part of Israel in Tel Aviv.

所以特拉维夫经常遭到袭击。

So Tel Aviv is hit pretty frequently.

警报器响了。

It mounted the sirens.

我有三个儿子，他们和父母不一样，很乐意待在家里，但这是他们在新冠疫情后逐渐适应的事情，而全世界都经历了这场疫情。

I have three boys who are unlike their parents, quite happy to be at home, but it's something that they've gotten used to, right, after COVID, which the whole world experienced.

而在10月7日之后，我觉得这些孩子过去六年里几乎没怎么上学。

And then post October 7, I think these kids had they barely had school in the past six years.

但即使在家，你也可能在白天或夜里听到警报声，然后所有人都躲进防空洞。

But even at home, it means that there are times you hear the sirens day or night, and you're all down in the bomb shelter.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

有一个相当有效的系统，但在警报响起前，手机会发出震耳欲聋的尖叫声，确保你醒来。

There's a it's a pretty functioning system, but there's a a ear shattering scream that comes through the phones before the sirens come to make sure you wake up.

然后大约六到十分钟之后，警报声就会响起。

And then about between six to ten minutes afterwards, the sirens come.

我们都下到避难所里。

We all go down to the shelter.

你等了十分钟。

You waited ten minutes.

你会听到远处的炸弹爆炸，不管是不是直接命中。

You hear those bombs exploding somewhere, whether it's a direct hit.

这很讽刺，但你甚至会听到孩子们说，哦，这听起来像是集束火箭，或者像是直接命中，又或者是铁穹拦截。

And it's quite ironic, but you even hear the kids say, oh, it sounds like a cluster rocket now, or it sounds like a direct hit, or maybe it's the iron dome interception.

然后我们出来，试图继续生活，但大部分时间只能困在家里。

Then we get out, we try to sort of continue with our lives, but we're mostly stranded to home.

我们还好。

It's we are fine.

我已经习惯了，但这确实很有挑战性。

I've gotten used to this, but but it it is challenging.

还有一些以色列人没那么幸运。

And there are other Israelis who are less less lucky.

对吧？

Right?

显然，全国范围内已经出现了人员伤亡和财产损失。

There have been casualties, obviously, property damages across the country.

是的。

Yeah.

帮我理解一下，随着几周过去，以色列公众对这场战争的看法是否发生了变化。

And help me understand whether Israeli public opinion on this war has shifted as the weeks have gone on.

我最近看到的民调显示，大约有80%的人支持这场战争。

The most recent polling I've seen has suggested about 80% support for this war.

你感觉到公众情绪有任何变化吗？

Do you sense any change in the public mood?

我认为有两件事可以同时成立。

So I think there are two things that can be true at once.

对战争的支持率仍然保持在80%左右。

Support for the war remains at around 80%.

这些也是我从各种来源看到的最新民调数据。

These are the last polls that I've seen as well from a variety of sources.

人们普遍认为这场战争是必要的，目的是消除对以色列的生存威胁，我们可以就这一论点的合理性展开讨论。

There is a a belief in the necessity of this war to remove an existential threat from Israel, and we we can debate the merit of this argument.

然而，人们已经感到疲惫了。

However, there is a fatigue.

对吧？

Right?

人们都待在家里带孩子。

People are are home with the kids.

对于在职父母来说，去上班非常困难。

It's very difficult for working parents to go to work.

我认为任何在疫情期间带着孩子度过新冠的人，都会对这个问题产生共鸣。

I think anyone who survived COVID with kids would sympathize with this issue.

这给那些自营生意的人带来了巨大压力。

It takes a toll on on the independence, people who own their own businesses.

显然，任何正在服预备役的人。

Obviously, anyone who is in reserve duty.

以色列已经处于战争状态约九百天。

Israel has been at war for around nine hundred days.

我有一些朋友已经连续八百天都在服预备役。

I have friends who've been in reserve duty for eight hundred of these days.

或许人们对这场战争能够实现其目标的信念略有下降，而从以色列的角度来看，这一目标本应是推翻伊朗政权。

And there is maybe a slight decline in the numbers in the belief that this war will reach its objectives, which from an Israeli perspective was supposed to bring to a toppling of the Iranian regime.

我认为，正是在这里，我们看到了一种微妙的认知转变：是的，这场战争是必要的，它正在削弱该政权，并削弱了伊朗袭击以色列的能力。

And I think this is where we see this this slight shift in sort of understanding, yes, this war is necessary, and it is weakening the regime, and it's degrading capabilities that Iran has to strike Israel.

但人们对这场战争能一劳永逸地消除威胁的信念略有下降。

But there's a slight decline in the belief that it will remove the threat once and for all.

是的。

Yeah.

但这是否也与去年夏天有关？当时本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在十二天战争结束后告诉以色列人，悬在他们头上的伊朗威胁之剑已被移除？

But is that also linked to the fact that last summer, Israelis were told by Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of the twelve day war that the the sword of of the Iranian threat hanging over their heads had been removed?

去年夏天被告知已经解除威胁，今年又再次开战，这会不会让人感到困惑？

Is there any level of confusion at being told that last summer and going to war again this year?

当然会。

Oh, absolutely.

而且我觉得有种似曾相识的感觉。

And I think there's a feeling of deja vu.

我们直到2025年6月还听说伊朗的威胁已经被消除了。

We had heard only in June 2025 that the Iranian threat was removed.

显然，美国总统也声称已经彻底摧毁了伊朗的核计划。

Obviously, The US president also said that he obliterated the Iranian nuclear plan.

那么为什么仅仅八个月后，以色列公众——不同于世界其他地区的民众——就已经为第二轮冲突准备了几个月？

So how come only eight months after and the Israeli public, unlike publics around the world, have been ready for round two for for a couple of months before this round broke.

很明显，人们心里在问：等等。

Very clearly, the question is like, wait.

如果我们刚刚才做过，为什么现在又要再做一次？

If we just did it, how come we need to do it again?

而且这不仅仅是伊朗的问题。

And it's not just Iran.

还有一条次要战线，可能会升级为主要战线。

There's a secondary front that could turn into a primary front.

但当我们看黎巴嫩时，曾听说真主党已经被摧毁了。

But when we look at Lebanon, we had heard that Hezbollah was decimated.

对吧？

Right?

真主党是黎巴嫩的一个什叶派组织。

Hezbollah is a Shiite group in Lebanon.

它也是一个恐怖组织。

It's also a terrorist group.

真主党已经被摧毁，我们的行动也摧毁了它的武器库。

That Hezbollah was decimated and that we took out its arsenal.

因此，某种程度上，以色列领导层的承诺和声明与现实之间存在脱节。

So in a sense, there is misalignment with the the promises and the declarations that are coming from Israeli leadership versus reality.

我认为，这正是让以色列公众感到沮丧的差距之一。

And this is, I think, one of the gaps that is frustrating the Israeli public.

这让我想问你，希拉，以色列即将举行选举，这是否是以色列总理发动这场战争的考量之一？

And and that makes me want to ask you, Shira, is the fact that there's an election coming in Israel part of the prime minister's calculation in starting this war?

目前在以色列，最令人沮丧的一点是，很难将这个国家发生的任何事情与政治动机分开。

So one of the, I think, the most frustrating thing in Israel at the moment that it's very difficult to disconnect anything that is happening in this country from political motivations.

对于总理内塔尼亚胡来说，我想说，伊朗对他而言就像一种信仰。

For prime minister Netanyahu, I wanna say Iran has been like a religion.

四十年来，他一直在强调必须铲除、打击伊朗伊斯兰共和国。

For four decades, he's been speaking about the need to remove the to to hit the Islamic Republic Of Iran.

是的。

Yeah.

他使用的是末日般的言辞，这种说法已经持续了三四十年，包括一些人可能还记得的、用道具展示联合国的演讲。

He's using apocalyptic terms, and he's been using them for three to four decades, including presentations with props of the UN that some some people may remember.

因此，从他的角度来看，这是真诚的。

So it is genuine from his perspective.

这并不意味着他认为的国家利益与他的政治利益没有很好地一致。

It does not mean that what he sees as the national interest does not align well with his political interest.

当然，发动这场战争的原因——第一次在六月，而现在再次发动——这是一次我们可以抓住的战术机会。

And, of course, the reason for opening this war, the first round in June, and then now, again, this was an operational opportunity that we can get into.

但在以色列，人们普遍认为，让以色列人持续处于战争状态，也有助于总理的政治目标。

But there is a sense in Israel that the desire to keep Israelis off their feet and in this perpetual state of war also serves the prime minister's political objectives.

因为首先，在战争进行期间举行选举是非常困难的。

Because first of all, it's very difficult to go to elections when you're in the middle of a rue.

对吧？

Right?

这是一个推迟选举的好理由，尤其是当所有民调都显示你不太可能再次获胜时。

This is a good reason to keep elections, especially if all polling shows that you're not likely to win again.

为了深入探讨这一点，你认为这可能是其考量的一部分，即希望推迟选举，以至于今年可能不会举行选举？

Just to dig into that, you think that could be part of the calculation, a desire to delay the election so there might not be one this year?

很难说是否真的会举行选举，目前有一些迹象表明选举将如期举行，但我想提醒你，当10月7日发生事件时，那是自大屠杀以来犹太人遭遇的最大失败、最大屠杀，对吧？

It's difficult to say if there's gonna be there's an indication now that the elections will take place in time, but I I do wanna remind you that when October 7 happened, the biggest failure, the biggest massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, Right?

以色列的预期是，总理将辞职，国家将举行选举，以获得以色列公众的重新授权。

The expectation in Israel was that the prime minister will resign and the country will go to election to receive a renewed mandate from the Israeli public.

但这种情况并未发生，而对此的借口正是联盟领导层一直宣称的理由。

That has not happened, and the pretext for this not happening was something that the the coalition leadership has said all along.

我们在战争进行中无法举行选举。

We can't go to elections when when we're in the middle of a war.

因此，选举有可能按时举行，时间大约在今年秋季。

So it it is possible that the elections will take place on time, which is gonna be somewhere in the fall this year.

选举有可能按时举行，但天知道那时我们会处于何种境地，那时选举可能不得不推迟。

It is possible and God knows where we're gonna be there, then the election will have to be postponed.

但内塔尼亚胡本人一生都将自己塑造为‘安全先生’，处于战争状态可能会增强他的地位。

But also, Netanyahu himself has portrayed himself all his life as mister security, and being in state of war could strengthen him.

我们尚未进入中期民调，但就‘安全先生’这一形象而言，他相比竞争对手更具优势。

We're not saying into the middle polls yet, but versus his in comparison to his contenders as mister security.

因此，这实现了双重目标，尽管其动机并不仅仅出于政治考量。

And so it serves a dual goal even though the motivation has not just been political.

那当然了。

That that's for sure.

好的。

Okay.

我只是想探讨一下关于战争背景以及以色列领导层思考的最新报道。

I I just wanna explore some of the recent reporting about the backdrop to the war and the thinking in the Israeli leadership.

我相信，《纽约时报》前几天报道说，摩萨德负责人曾带着一个计划去见总理，表示他相信在战争开始后的几天内，他的机构很可能能够动员伊朗反对派，引发骚乱和其他反抗行动，从而迅速导致政权崩溃。

I'm sure, you know, The New York Times was reporting the other day that the Mossad chief went to the prime minister with a plan and said he believed that within days of the war's beginning, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition, igniting riots, other acts of rebellion that could lead to the collapse of the regime imminently.

那么，摩萨德为什么会严重误判呢？

So how did Mossad get it so wrong?

我还没有看到摩萨德的那份简报。

So I have not seen the power point by the Mossad.

我现在看到一些报道指出，摩萨德从未说过这件事会立即发生，而是存在时间线上的问题。

I see some reporting now that indicates Mossad never said this will happen right away, that there's a timeline issue.

在打击行动结束后，据我所知，SAAR报道称伊朗政权将在六到十二个月内垮台。

After strikes are complete within, I I think, a SAAR reporting that between six months and a year, the Iranian regime will will fall.

顺便说一下，我们可以设想一下反事实情况。

And by the way, we can think of the counterfactual.

我们在一月份看到了伊朗大规模的抗议活动。

We've seen these massive protests in Iran in January.

对吧？

Right?

我们也知道，阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊很快就要87岁了。

And we also knew that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was gonna be 87 years old soon.

因此，存在一种假设情景：即使没有空袭，这个政权也可能在一年内垮台。

So there there is a hypothetical scenario that even without the strikes, this regime would fall in in a year.

我们永远无法验证这一点。

We can never test this.

但这在某种程度上是为摩萨德辩护。

But this is sort of in the defense of the Mossad.

有一个未被报道的时间线问题。

There's a timeline issue that was not reported.

在这方面，你知道，无论是美国还是以色列国防军泄露的，以色列国防军和摩萨德之间，还有政界人士之间，存在着激烈的竞争，都想把摩萨德推出来当替罪羊。

In that regard, you know, this leak, whether it came from The US or it came from the IDF, there are a lot of there's a lot of competition in terms of the IDF and Mossad here and the politicians and who wants to throw the Mossad under the bus.

但在这里，我本以为以色列和美国的领导层中，某个机构会站出来说：好吧。

But here is where I would have expected some agency, right, on the part of leadership, both Israel and The US to say, okay.

这只是一个想法和一种选择，但如果它不起作用呢？

This is one idea and one option, but what if it doesn't work?

你不能基于一个假设性的行动计划来决定推翻一个政权。

And you can't base decisions on hypothetical operational plan to topple topple a regime.

我担心的是，这些报道——我相信它们基于事实，《纽约时报》的报道一向非常严谨。

My fear is that these reports and I'm sure they're based on on truth, and New York Times does most serious reporting.

它们只会——让我怎么说呢，我尽量说得委婉一点。

They only would only how should I I'll try to be diplomatic.

世界上有很多人指责以色列把美国拖入了这场战争。

There are a lot of people around the world that blame Israel for dragging The US into this war.

而这些报道只会强化这种说法，我认为这对以色列来说非常危险。

And these reports only strengthen this narrative, which I think for Israel is very, very dangerous.

危险是因为美国公众舆论吗？

Dangerous because because of American public opinion?

首先是因为美国公众舆论，还有美国立法者，这显而易见。

Because of American public opinion, first and foremost, American legislators, obviously.

我想说的是，尽管以色列公众和以色列政府，内塔尼亚胡总理认为国际社会的关注点在宾夕法尼亚大道和国会山之间，但其他国家的公众舆论也同样重要。

And I'm mind to say that whereas the Israeli public and the Israeli government, prime minister Netanyahu sees the international communities between Pennsylvania Avenue and and Capitol Hill, it also matters what public opinion is in other countries.

你知道，以色列虽然不是欧洲的一部分，但它与欧洲有着最重要的贸易关系、最多的投资、开放的天空协议、航班以及文化合作。

You know, Israel is a part or it's not part of Europe, but it's it has the most important trade relationships with Europe, most investment, open skies, flights, cultural initiatives.

以色列的学术界和研发工作离不开欧洲的资金支持。

The Israeli academia and R and D cannot survive without European funding.

我的意思是，世界怎么看很重要，关系也很重要，而我甚至还没开始谈中东周边的邻国。

I mean, it matters what the world thinks and relationships matter, and I haven't even begun speaking about, you know, the neighborhood, the Middle East.

是的。

Yeah.

很明显，以色列在共和党以及MAGA运动内部，甚至在民主党内部，都变得更加分裂了。

I mean, it's already clear that Israel has become more divisive within the Republican Party and the MAGA movement as well as within the Democratic Party.

而且，还有民调显示，如今更多美国人对巴勒斯坦人抱有同情，而不是对以色列人。

And also, there's polling suggesting that more Americans today are sympathetic towards the Palestinians than than the Israelis.

我想问问，你对此有多大的关联？

I I wanna ask how closely connected to that you are.

当你看到这样的数据时，你内心真实的感觉是什么，希拉？

Like, what you really feel when you see numbers like that, Shira?

因为你出生在纽约。

Because you were born in New York.

你和父母移居以色列，你是这两个国家的公民。

You moved to Israel with your parents, you are a citizen of both countries.

是的。

Yes.

你知道，我对更多人对巴勒斯坦人抱有同情完全没有意见。

You know, it's very I I have no issues with having greater sympathy for the Palestinians.

对吧？

Right?

我不认为这必须是一场零和游戏，但我必须谈谈以色列在全球受欢迎观点的衰退。

And I don't think it needs to be a zero sum game, but I will speak of the decline of the favorite views of Israelis around the world.

我认为这在战略上非常危险，因为首先，对以色列而言，国家安全的支柱是与美国的特殊关系。

I think it's it's very dangerous strategically because, first of all, for Israel, the pillar of defense of national security is is the special relationship with The United States.

我不确定这种关系能否持续下去。

And I'm not sure this relationship can be sustained.

尤其是在我们目前看到的这些趋势下，肯定不行。

Definitely, when not with these trends that we're seeing at the moment.

在个人层面上，也存在问题。

On the personal level, there's also an issue.

以色列与犹太社群之间的关系，也一直是以色列力量的支柱。

The relationship between Israel and the Jewish community has been also a pillar of Israel's strength.

作为在两个社群中都往来的人，我经常发现，美国的犹太社群——无论共和党还是民主党——都极为担忧。

And as someone who roams in both of these communities, I often find that the Jewish community is awfully concerned in The US on both sides, Republicans and Democrats.

美国的大多数犹太人都是民主党支持者。

Most of the Jews in The United States are Democrats.

但在双方，人们都对以色列人感到真正的担忧。

But on both sides, there's real concern for for Israelis.

我认为以色列人并没有像对待美国犹太人和流散犹太人那样充分地表示同情，也不理解美国犹太人所经历的困难。

I don't think that Israelis are fully sympathetic to American Jews and diaspora Jews in the same way and not understanding how difficult it has been also for American Jews.

我主要说的是美国犹太人，而不仅仅是其他地方的，因为这是我最熟悉的群体。

And I'm speaking mostly American Jews not just elsewhere because this is the community I know the most.

自去年10月7日以来，过去两年半里，他们经历了极其短暂的时期——从校园抗议开始，但不仅限于此，还有反犹太主义的上升，以及被牵连进可能将美国拖入纷争的国家之中。

How short it's been for them over the past two and a half years starting after October 7, obviously, with protest campuses, but not only that, rising antisemitism and being sort of associated with the country that might have dragged The US into lore.

我不认同这种说法，但它确实存在。

I don't I don't buy this narrative, but it's definitely a narrative that is there.

而以色列并不理解，它的所作所为会影响一个与以色列紧密相连、对以色列至关重要的群体。

And Israel does not understand that what it does affects an entire community that is connected to Israel and is important to Israel.

所以，无论是在战略层面，还是在个人层面，情况都严重恶化了。

So, you know, both on the strategic levels, but also on the per personal levels, it's it's very worsened.

而就我此刻所在的英国而言，最近几天，伦敦一家犹太慈善机构的救护车遭到了袭击，这不仅令犹太社区感到寒心，也让许多旁观者感到震惊。

And here in The UK where I'm speaking to you from in the last few days, there's been an attack on ambulances belonging to a Jewish charity in London, which has been chilling not only for the for the Jewish community, but many others watching.

我们确实看到了反犹主义的上升，但我并不认为对以色列政策的任何批评都是反犹主义。

We definitely see the rise of antisemitism, and I'm not one that thinks that any criticism of Israeli policy is antisemitism.

两者之间有非常明确的区别，但数字本身就能说明问题。

There's a very clear difference, but the numbers speaks for themselves.

反犹主义正在上升，并且助长了一种叙事。

There's a rising antisemitism, and it feeds into a narrative.

在以色列，无论是政策制定者还是公众，我倒不说他们对此毫无察觉，但他们的敏感度远不及应有的程度，没有意识到这会适得其反。

And in Israel, both the policymakers and the public is, I don't say oblivious to this, but not as sensitive as they need to be, not understanding that it will backfire.

大家好，我是iHeartMedia的董事长兼首席执行官鲍勃·皮特曼，我将开启我的播客《营销前沿的数学与故事》的新一季。

Hi, I'm Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia, and I'm kicking off a brand new season of my podcast, Math and Stories from the Frontiers of Marketing.

《数学与魔法》将带您深入了解最大型企业与行业，并分享营销领域最聪明头脑的见解。

Math and Magic takes you behind the scenes of the biggest businesses and industries while sharing insights from the smartest minds in marketing.

我将采访来自娱乐业、金融界以及其间各个领域的领导者。

I'm talking to leaders from the entertainment industry to finance and everywhere in between.

在本季《数学与魔法》中，我将对话Liquid Death的首席执行官迈克·塞萨里奥、金融家与公共健康倡导者迈克·米尔肯，以及Take Two Interactive的首席执行官斯特劳斯·泽尔尼克。

This season of Math and Magic, I'm talking to CEO of Liquid Death, Mike Cesario financier and public health advocate Mike Milken Take Two Interactive CEO Strauss Zelnick.

如果你不敢承担有意义的创意风险，因而不敢犯下糟糕的创意错误，那你就不配在这个行业里玩。

If you're unable to take meaningful creative risk and therefore run the risk of making horrible creative mistakes, then you can't play in this business.

芝麻街首席执行官谢丽·韦斯顿，以及我们自己的首席业务官丽莎·科菲。

Sesame Street CEO Sherry Weston, and our own chief business officer, Lisa Coffey.

让消费者感受到人声的价值，并确信背后有可靠的人性承诺，这能让它脱颖而出。

Making consumers see the value of the human voice and to have that guaranteed human promise behind it really makes it rise to the top.

在 iHeartRadio 应用、Apple 播客或你收听播客的任何平台，收听《数学与魔法：营销前沿的故事》。

Listen to math and magic, stories from the frontiers of marketing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

你好。

Hi.

我是亚历克·鲍德温。

It's Alec Baldwin.

在这个季节的我的播客里，是这样的。

This season on my podcast, here's the thing.

我将与更多艺术家、政策制定者和表演者对话，比如作曲家马克·沙曼。

I'm speaking with more artists, policymakers, and performers like composer Mark Shaman.

一旦你证明了自己有才华，接下来就是相处的氛围。

Once you've established that you have the talent, it's about the hang.

就是和身边的人在一起时的那种愉悦感。

It's the pleasure of hanging out with the people that you're with.

你知道，我和罗布总是特别合得来。

You know, Rob and I was always a great hang.

我们会一坐就是几个小时闲聊，然后才慢慢谈到音乐。

We would sit in kibbits for hours and then eventually get around to the music.

我想到他时，最常想起的就是我们一起笑闹的时光。

That's what I mostly think of when I think of him, the time together laughing.

律师罗比·卡普兰。

Lawyer Robbie Kaplan.

这

The

当律师最了不起的礼物，就是拥有以极少人能实现的方式改变社会的能力。

great gift of being a lawyer is the ability to actually change things in our society in a way that very few people can.

我的意思是，如果你在正确的时间提出正确的案件，真的可以在美国推动某些事业产生重大影响。

I mean, you can really make a difference to causes in The United States if you bring the right case at the right time

婚姻平权。

in a Marriage equality.

是的。

Yeah.

温莎案就是完美的例子。

Windsor's the perfect example.

还有记者克里斯·惠普尔。

And journalist Chris Whipple.

每一位白宫工作人员都在一个被称为西翼的封闭环境中工作，而在特朗普政府时期，这种封闭感更是成倍加剧。

Every White House staffer, they work in a bubble called the West Wing, and it's exponentially more so in the Trump White House.

请在 iHeartRadio 应用程序或您收听播客的任何平台收听《这是事情》的新一季。

Listen to the new season of Here's the Thing on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.

关于美国与以色列的关系，无论谁先挑起战争，去年夏天那场持续十二天的战争都带来了一些根本性的变化；如今，两国共同参与了这场战争，正如你所说，以色列总理长期以来一直希望实现这种联合行动。

On the relationship with The United States, regardless of who took whom to war, There is something fundamentally different that happened last summer with the twelve day war and now that the two countries have been part of this war together, one that, as you said, the Israeli prime minister has wanted for a long time, but this has been a joint enterprise.

你认为，如果这种情况发生变化，会发生什么？

What happens, do you think, if that changes?

如果唐纳德·特朗普决定停止，会发生什么？

What happens if, Donald Trump decides to stop?

如果你看看他最新的表态，几乎很少提到以色列。

And if you look at his latest statements, there's very little mention of Israel.

他说，我们非常愿意达成一项协议，我。

He says, we are very willing to do a deal, I.

E。

E.

美国愿意与伊朗达成一项协议。

The US is willing to do a deal with Iran.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

所以这差别非常大，我的意思是，我认为十二天战争和我们现在看到的情况显然不同。

So very big I mean, I think there is a difference between the twelve day war and what we're seeing now, obviously.

在那场十二天战争中，美国总统特朗普给了以色列绿灯，以色列清空了天空并完成了所有工作。

In the the twelve day war, The United States, president Trump gave a green light for Israel, and after Israel cleared the sky and did all the work.

你知道，美国随后动用了其强大的能力，执行了这项任务，使用了专门为这一特定任务开发的装备，结果直接终结了战局。

You know, The United States came with their immense capabilities, performing the mission of, you know, and using capabilities were developed just for this specific mission, and it was game over.

即便如此，很明显，即使这被描绘成一种伙伴关系，特朗普最终还是命令正在空中的以色列飞机调头返航。

And even then, it was very clear that even if this was portrayed as a partnership, Trump, at the end of the day, did tell Israeli planes, which were in the air, to strike Tehran to turn around.

我听一些在空军指挥中心的人说过，当时以色列空军司令一手拿着电话与飞行员沟通，另一只手拿着电话与内塔尼亚胡总理通话，实时获取指令。

And I've heard from people who were in the command center of the air force where you had the chief of the Israeli air force with one phone with the pilots and another phone with prime minister Netanyahu on getting them an order in real time.

你知道吗？

You know?

回来。

Come back.

回来。

Come back.

回来。

Come back.

所以这是来自美国总统的直接命令，而不是来自以色列总理的命令。

So this was an order straight order from the from The US president, not from the Israeli prime minister.

我们这里所看到的是一种非常不同的合作关系，以色列空军军官，包括高级别的、数十人之多，常驻在中央司令部，反之亦然，双方紧密合作。

What we have here is a very different partnership, and you have Israeli air force officers, even senior level and in double digit numbers who are stationed in CENTCOM and vice versa working together.

但在决策层面，这并不是一种合作关系。

But in terms of the decision making, it's not a partnership.

只有一个老板，这个老板就是特朗普总统。

There's one boss, and this boss is president Trump.

但非常明确的是，以色列各界，包括国防体系内部，都在说：当特朗普总统说结束时，以色列就必须结束。

But it's very clear, Israelis across the board, including in the defense establishment, are saying this, when president Trump says we're done, Israel is gonna be done.

这跟黎巴嫩或其他朋友无关。

It's not Lebanon or the other friends.

以色列人可能会对这一结果感到失望，因为协议并不是以色列所青睐的。

Could and Israelis could be disappointed at this outcome because an agreement is not something that Israel favors.

所以你心中没有任何疑问。

So there's no question in in your mind.

如果美国宣布结束行动并且不处理伊朗问题，以色列能否、是否会继续下去？

Israel could not, would not continue if The US calls it a day and and doesn't deal with Iran?

我的意思是，我不能说完全没有可能，但我估计有99.99999%的概率以色列会停止。

I mean, I can't say no chance at all, but I'll put 99.99999% of Israel stops.

我认为这就是为什么我们很可能会看到——虽然行动节奏没有改变，但如果你留意战争初期泄露出来的信息，当时以色列并不清楚这场始于行动、但无疑已演变为战争的冲突会持续多久——以色列曾表示，我们必须以最快的速度尽可能多地打击目标，因为随时可能被叫停，而我们必须遵守。

And I think this is why we're likely to see, not that the the tempo has changed, but if you listen to some leaks that came out of the first days of the war because it was unknown in Israel how long what's gonna be the duration of this, what started as an operation, and I think undeniably as a war, that Israel said we had to strike whatever we can as fast as possible because this can be stopped in a moment, and we would have to abide by it.

伊朗是否会停止，那是另一个问题。

Whether Iran stops, that's a different question.

未来是否会有新一轮冲突，我不确定，但我认为，如果出现某种形式的停火或协议，以色列将不得不遵守。

Whether there's another round in the future, But I think that if there is a declaration of some sort of a ceasefire and agreement, Israel will have to abide back.

那黎巴嫩会怎样？

And what then happens to Lebanon?

因为这另一个战线——包括最近几周出现的地面部队行动，以及桥梁被炸毁等——一直存在。

Because that has been this other front, including with ground forces that has opened up in the last few weeks, including the blowing up of bridges.

现在，财政部长贝扎勒·斯莫特里奇表示，黎巴嫩南部的利塔尼河应成为以色列和黎巴嫩之间的新边界。

And now the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, saying that the Litani River in Southern Lebanon should be a new border between Israel and Lebanon.

是的。

Yes.

如果真的发生这种情况，这本质上是一种新的占领。

Now if that happens and that's essentially a new occupation.

对。

Right.

没错。

Exactly.

这可能性不大，但我原本希望，无论是否与伊朗达成任何协议，都应是一个更广泛的协议，同时涵盖真主党。

It's probably not likely, but I would have hoped that whatever agreement, if there is one with Iran, it is a broader agreement that also includes Hezbollah.

我不确定美国目前是否关注这一点，也不确定以色列是否在积极推动这一点。

I'm not sure The US attention is there at the moment, and I'm not sure Israel is pushing for it.

但如果没有这种处理，如今被视为次要战线的黎巴嫩，可能会转变为首要战线，而以色列则会进一步深入。

But absent this, what is now a very secondary front, Lebanon could turn into the primary front with Israel just digging deeper.

我们正在看到有针对性的打击，但同时也看到以色列国防军越来越多地进入黎巴嫩境内，实际上正在建立一个缓冲区。

We're seeing targeted strikes, but we're also seeing the IDF taking more and more positions inside Lebanon and creating de facto a buffer zone.

目前这还不算占领，但如果没有外交协议，可能会演变成占领。

It is not an occupation at the moment, but it could turn into one absent a diplomatic agreement.

以色列在黎巴嫩占领土地有着悠久的历史，但从未实现过以色列人所期望的结果。

And, you know, Israel has a long history of occupying land in Lebanon, and it never delivered the result that Israelis want.

因此，我对这种愚蠢的行为深感担忧，我确实希望国际社会——尤其需要美国领导——能认识到：利用在伊朗取得的军事成果，利用伊朗将忙于自身事务、可能无法像以往那样全力资助其代理人这一现实，同时抓住黎巴嫩境内反真主党情绪这一难得的历史性趋势——虽然我不愿说黎巴嫩民众欢迎以色列，但至少不再把与以色列实现和平视为禁忌。

So I'm very concerned about this folly, and I do hope that the international community, and it needs to be led by The United States, sees this idea of capitalizing on military achievements in Iran and the fact that the Iranians are gonna be busy and maybe unable to fund their proxies at the same level and taking advantages of really remarkable historical trends in Lebanon, anti Hezbollah sentiment, and I don't wanna say welcoming of Israel, but no longer the taboo of imagining even peace with Israel.

黎巴嫩现在正面临一个绝佳的机会，而我们却可能因为不断深入、重复做同一件事——也就是所谓疯狂的定义：一遍又一遍做同样的事，却期待不同的结果——而错失这个机会。

And there's there's really an opportunity in Lebanon that we risk squandering now with digging deeper, doing something that you know, this definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

这就是我目前对以色列军事行动的看法。

This is how I see the Israeli campaign at the moment.

没有人质疑以色列北部加利利地区不应再遭受边境恐怖组织的炮击，也不质疑黎巴嫩政府应承担更多责任来遏制这种威胁。

And no one questions the fact that the Israeli North, the Galilee shouldn't be shelled by a terrorist organization on the border, and that the Lebanese state should do more to contain it.

但以色列在黎巴嫩是有合作伙伴的，如果以色列占领黎巴嫩部分地区，就会失去这个伙伴。

But Israel has a partner in Lebanon, and if Israel occupies parts of Lebanon, it's gonna lose the partner.

你指的是黎巴嫩政府吗？他们希望真主党被解除武装，并终结其影响力？

The Lebanese government, you mean, who would like to see Hezbollah disarmed and its its influence brought to an end?

是的。

Yeah.

是黎巴嫩政府，还有黎巴嫩民众，以及真主党的支持基础——什叶派社群。

It's the Lebanese government, and we have the Lebanese public and, you know, the Shiite community, which is the Hezbollah support base.

我们还看到了这个支持基础内部的裂痕。

We've seen also fractures in this support base.

什叶派社群的代表们说，真主党并不代表我们。

People of representative of the Shia community, they're saying, well, Hezbollah doesn't represent us.

他们更关心伊朗的利益，而不是黎巴嫩的利益。

They care more about the interests of Iran than the interest of the Lebanese.

因此，解除恐怖组织武装的整个想法，绝不可能仅仅依靠军事手段实现。

And so, you know, this whole idea of disarming terrorist organizations, it can never be a solely military endeavor.

在任何地方都从未成功过。

It hasn't worked anywhere.

就像你们处理爱尔兰共和军一样，这从来不仅仅是一场军事行动。

And where you are with the IRA, it's never just a kinetic activity.

它必须伴随着支持。

It has to come with the support.

有一个政治伙伴同样重要，而如今在黎巴嫩，正是从政治层面应对真主党的良机。

There's a political partner that's not less important, and this opportunity for taking on Hezbollah politically is available now in Lebanon.

黎巴嫩政府需要帮助。

The Lebanese government needs help.

他们不需要被来自侧面的打压。

They don't need to be squashed from from the side.

莎拉，你是不是在说，即使在审视加沙的情况下，解除恐怖组织武装的政策最终对哈马斯也无效，且将永远无效？

Are are you even saying, Shira, that the policy of disarming terrorist organizations, even as you look at Gaza, that ultimately this strategy on Hamas has not worked and will not work?

我们现在谈论时，或许因战争的迷雾，大家都忘了加沙在哪里，但停火协议签署至今已五个月，幸亏如此，以色列人质得以回家，加沙的巴勒斯坦人也获得了一些喘息之机。

As we talk now and maybe under the fog of war, everyone forgot where Gaza is, but we are five month in after signing a ceasefire in Gaza that, thank goodness, brought the Israeli hostages back home and allowed the Palestinians in Gaza some sort of respite of relief.

但当我们审视加沙时，哈马斯作为事实上统治加沙一半地区、多数人口所在地的主权管理者。

But as we're looking at Gaza, you have Hamas, the de facto sovereign governor of half of Gaza where most of the people are.

以色列占领了另一半。

Israel occupies the other half.

有大量迹象表明，哈马斯确实是街头武装的实际统治力量。

There are so many indications that Hamas is really the governing power with arms on the street.

以色列两年来试图通过武力解除哈马斯的武装，但并未成功。

Israel for for two years tried to disarm Hamas kinetically, and it hasn't worked.

必须辅以政治手段，让巴勒斯坦人自己解除巴勒斯坦人的武装。

It has to come with a political part where Palestinians will disarm Palestinians.

这必须是巴勒斯坦人民自己选择的事情。

It has to be something the Palestinian people choose to do.

我希望，在这一轮伊朗事务结束后，我们能聚焦于加沙，那里已经存在一个框架。

And I I do hope that after this Iran round finishes, we can focus on Gaza where there is a framework.

我们可以批评其中的一些内容，但特朗普总统提出的二十点计划，以及本应进入加沙的国家技术委员会，还有本应重新回归的巴勒斯坦权力机构，这些都没有取得任何进展。

We can criticize some elements of it, but the 20 plan that president Trump had delivered and the National Technocratic Committee that's supposed to come into Gaza and Palestinian authority that is supposed to come back at one point after, but none of these things have advanced.

但机会依然存在，我们也不应错过，否则这意味着以色列将再次回到加沙作战，这种情况可能在接下来几个月内发生。

But the opportunity still exists, and we shouldn't miss that either because, otherwise, what it means is that Israel will go back to fighting in Gaza as well, and this could could happen in the next few months.

而这是否也需要美国的同意呢？

And would that be with, again, the the blessing of the the Americans?

因为有一个国际上很少被注意到的机构，叫民事军事合作中心，它实际上是美国陆军的一部分，位于以色列南部。

Because there's this little recognized internationally body, the Civil Military Cooperation Center, which is essentially part of The US Army, and that is in Southern Israel.

我想你是知道这个组织的。

I think you know about that organization.

它的职责是监督停火，并密切关注加沙地带的地面情况。

It's part it's supposed to be monitoring the ceasefire and keeping an eye on what's happening on the ground in Gaza.

是的。

Yeah.

我经常去民事军事合作中心，我认为它在监督停火、协调进入加沙的援助或物资方面有很多优势。

I I'm a frequent visitor to the CMCC, and I think it's it has a lot of advantages monitoring the ceasefire and coordinating aid or goods that go into Gaza.

我不确定美国是否会支持新一轮的军事行动。

And I don't know if The US is gonna bless renewed fighting.

我认为，也许我期望的是，特朗普总统将此视为其外交政策的一项成就——追求和平，促成停火并建立这些机制。

I do think, and maybe I hope, that president Trump sees this as an achievement of his foreign policy, the pursuit of peace, bringing this ceasefire and creating the structures.

我非常赞赏特朗普政府。

And I I have a lot of appreciation for the Trump administration.

我原本没想到他们会推动一项联合国安理会决议，会谈论巴勒斯坦建国的谈判。

I had not thought that they would lead a UN Security Council resolution, that they would be speaking about negotiations in Palestinian state.

对吧？

Right?

我认为，由于国际社会的压力，他们确实采用了这些方式，并将其纳入了自己的框架。

And I think because of pressure from the international community, they they did go to these modalities and brought them into their framework.

我暂时搁置其他方面的批评意见。

I'm I'm putting aside the other criticisms of of issues.

现在一切都取决于哈马斯是否愿意接受逐步解除武装的框架并切实执行，以及以色列是否愿意采取必要措施。

It all hinges now on Hamas willing to accept a gradual disarmament framework and following through, and then Israel agreeing to do what it takes.

我的评估是，任何一方——以色列、哈马斯、巴勒斯坦权力机构、联合国——都不想因破坏这一努力而承担责任，因为这对特朗普总统来说至关重要。

My assessment is that neither side, not Israel, not Hamas, not Palestinian authority, not the UN, no one wants to be blamed for derailing this effort because it is important to president Trump.

我不确定这些各方中是否真的有人希望此事成功。

I am not sure that any of these parties really want this to succeed.

为了使这一进程取得成功，你们必须付出最大的努力，这就是为什么美国的推动至关重要，因为尽管目前有停火，但战火实际上并未真正停止。

And for this to succeed, you need really to make an utmost effort, and that's why The US push is very much needed because, again, there is a ceasefire, but the fire hasn't really ceased.

但是，希拉，这7万名巴勒斯坦人的死亡人数，还不包括那些可能仍被埋在废墟下的人，其中包括1.8万名儿童，与此同时，我们还要看到约旦河西岸正在发生的一切。

But, I mean, Shira, this death toll of 70,000 people, Palestinians, not including those who might be buried under the rubble still, including 18,000 children, and at the same time, to see what is ongoing in the West Bank.

你知道的吧？

You know?

这不仅仅是以色列定居者的行动，还包括以色列军队的行为。

And that's not only Israeli settlers, that's also the actions of the Israeli military.

前几天就有一个例子：一对夫妇和他们的两个孩子在车里被枪杀。

And just one example was the shooting of a couple and two children in their car the other day.

尽管记者无法进入许多这些现场，但这一持续的状况依然被人们看到，图像和证词仍在传播。

It's it's it's an ongoing picture that despite the fact that journalists don't have access to many of these scenes, it it is seen, and the the images and the accounts do travel.

以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间正在发生的事情真是太悲惨了。

It is so tragic what is happening between Israelis and Palestinians.

当我们谈论生存威胁时，我认为这对以色列来说就是生存威胁，对吧？因为以色列本应是一个犹太民主国家。

And when we talk about existential threats, I think this is the existential threat for Israel, right, when Israel was supposed to be a Jewish democracy.

而这些事情正发生在以色列掌控安全的地区。

And we have this going on in areas that Israel controls security wise.

让我暂时把这两者分开来说。

I'm gonna separate the two for a moment.

加沙的死亡人数仍在争论中，不是争论数字本身，而是争论其中有多少是武装分子。

The Gaza death toll is something that is still being debated not in terms of the numbers, but in terms of the breakdowns of how many of these have been militants.

但这一点毫无疑问。

But there's no question.

我认为，以色列人已经逐渐意识到对面所遭受的苦难。

I think this is something that Israelis have become known to, to see the suffering on the other side.

孩子就是孩子。

Children are children are children.

不管他们是不是恐怖分子的孩子，都无关紧要。

It does not matter if they're the children of of terrorists.

对吧？

Right?