The Morgan Housel Podcast - 我相当确定的几件事 封面

我相当确定的几件事

A Few Things I'm Pretty Sure About

本集简介

最近我一直在思考的一些事情,无论你的职业是什么,我都希望你能从中获益。 感谢我的朋友来自Eight Sleep。了解更多请访问 eightsleep.com/morganhousel。

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钱的全部用途就是作为一种工具,让你的生活更美好。

The whole purpose of money is as a tool to give you a better life.

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这一直是我信奉的座右铭。

That's always been my mantra.

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如果我的生活中有一个领域是我一直想改善的,那就是我的睡眠。

And if there's one area of my life that I've wanted to improve, it is my sleep.

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我一直以来都是个糟糕的睡眠者,这严重影响了我的健康,偶尔也影响了我的情绪。

I have always been a terrible sleeper, and it's had such a big impact on my health and occasionally my mood.

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我最近开始使用Eight Sleep,效果非常好。

I recently started using Eight Sleep, and it has been wonderful.

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这确实是最近我做过的最好的投资之一。

Truly one of the best investments I've made in a while.

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Eight Sleep是一种床垫罩,能在你睡觉时通过底部加热和降温,分析你的睡眠模式,找到最适合的温度,并在整夜自动调节。

Eight Sleep is a mattress cover that heats and cools underneath you while you sleep, analyzing your sleep patterns to find the right temperature and automatically adjusting throughout the night.

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它还会在第二天早上提供大量数据,显示你的睡眠模式、可以改进的地方,以及你实际获得的休息量。

Also It gives you tons of data the next morning showing your sleep patterns, where you can improve, and how much rest you actually received.

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我非常喜欢。

I love it.

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如果你想了解更多并享受最多350美元的折扣,请访问 eightsleep.com/morganhousel。

If you wanna check out more and get up to 350 off, go to eightsleep.com/morganhousel.

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就是 eightsleep.com/morganhousel。

That's eightsleep.com/morganhousel.

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过去十五年左右,我一直在桌面保存一个谷歌文档,标题是‘我相当确定的事情’。

For the last fifteen years or so, I have a Google Doc I save on my desktop that is titled things I'm pretty sure about.

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这些都是一些随机的观察和感悟。

And these are just random observations that I've had.

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很多时候,这些想法来自与他人交谈、阅读文章,或是我随手记下的关于生活、商业和投资的点滴。

Oftentimes from talking to other people or reading something, a note that I jot down, a little note about life and business and investing that I try to make a note of.

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多年来,我一直努力成为一个更好的记录者。

I've been trying to become a better notetaker for many years.

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但我还不确定自己是否真的做得很好。

I don't know if I'm that good at it yet.

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但我有一个文件,里面记录了我学到的一些对我个人非常重要的事情,也希望对阅读我文字的人有所帮助。

But I have this file of just a reminder of things that I've learned that I think are really important to me personally, but hopefully for the people who might read the things that I write.

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今天我想和你们分享其中一些。

And I wanna share with you a bunch of them today.

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提前说明一下,这些想法非常零散,彼此之间没什么关联。

A fair warning, these are very random ideas that don't have a lot of connection to one another.

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这些只是对我有帮助的简短见解,或许你们也会觉得它们对你们有帮助。

These are just short ideas that have been helpful for me, and maybe, hopefully, you'll see they're helpful for you.

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那我就直接开始了。

So let me jump right into it.

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你不需要确切知道未来会怎样,就能明白有些人比其他人更能应对未来。

You don't have to know exactly what the future holds to know that some people will handle it better than others.

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天啊,这难道不是真的吗?

Gosh, isn't that true?

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你不需要知道下一次经济衰退何时到来,或者下一项新技术是什么,就能明白有些人拥有更强的情绪稳定性和智慧,能更好地应对任何挑战。

You don't need to know when the next recession is gonna come or the next new technology is to know that some people have the emotional stability and the intelligence to handle whatever comes so much better than others.

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下一个观点来自作家G.K.切斯特顿,他曾写道:‘思想是危险的,但对思想最不危险的人,正是那些拥有思想的人。’

This next one is from the author GK Chesterton, who once wrote, quote, ideas are dangerous, but the man to whom they are least dangerous is the man of ideas.

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他熟悉思想,并像驯狮人一样在思想中自如游走。

He is acquainted with ideas and moves among them like a lion tamer.

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思想是危险的,但对思想最危险的人,是那些毫无思想的人。

Ideas are dangerous, but the man to whom they are most dangerous is a man of no ideas.

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让我试着稍微解释一下这一点。

Let me try to unpack that a little bit.

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我认为这真的非常正确:在生活中、商业和投资中、在政治和人际关系里,最容易受骗的人,恰恰是那些对这些领域没有任何坚定信念的人。

I I think it's so true that the people who are the most gullible in anything in life, in business, and investing, in politics, in relationships, are the people who have no firm beliefs about any of those things.

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当他们第一次听到别人灌输的某个观点时,就会立刻点头说:‘对。’

And the first idea that they hear from somebody that hits them in the head, they think, yes.

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这一定就是真理。

That must be the truth.

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你经常能看到这种情况。

You see it all the time.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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金钱能带来幸福,但也带来了复杂性,而复杂性会迅速导致不快乐。

Money can bring happiness, but it also brings complexity, and complexity can quickly lead to unhappiness.

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那么,拥有更多的钱会让你更快乐吗?

So look, does having more money make you happier?

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是的。

Yes.

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我认为确实如此。

I think it does.

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我不想深入讨论那些认为金钱不能带来幸福、以及为什么不能的哲学争论。

And I I I don't wanna get into the philosophical debate about how it doesn't and why it doesn't.

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是的。

Yes.

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确实如此。

It does.

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这就是我们都在追求它的原因。

That's why we're all chasing it.

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但这很复杂。

But it's complicated.

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我认为人们真正喜欢的是简单的生活。

And I think what people actually like in life is a simple life.

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你的简单生活也可以很奢华。

Your simple life can be extravagant.

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你可以拥有大房子、坐头等舱,一切都很讲究,但他们想要的是简单。

You can have a big house and fly first class and everything, but what they want is simplicity.

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他们只是希望生活中的变量越少越好,或者他们想自己选择那些变量。

They just want as few moving parts as possible or they wanna choose their moving parts.

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他们想自己决定生活中复杂的部分。

They wanna choose the complexity in their life.

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很多人在赚到更多钱后,反而用它来增加生活的复杂性,而这实际上导致了不快乐。

And a lot of people, when they gain more money, they use it to add complexity to their life in a way that actually leads to unhappiness.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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很多人言语上很悲观,但行动上却很乐观。

A lot of people are pessimistic with their words, but optimistic with their actions.

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很多一边抱怨世界有多糟糕的人,每个月仍在为他们的401(k)账户存钱,每天上班,努力让自己变得更好。

Many of the same people who talk about how terrible things are in the world are still probably contributing every month to their four zero one k and going to work every day trying to get a little bit better.

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在推特上、在有线新闻里,或者跟朋友说世界有多糟糕、一切都在走向毁灭,这要容易得多,也更常见,听起来很可怕、很糟糕。

It is so much easier and more common to go onto Twitter or to go onto cable news or to just to tell your friends about how terrible the world is and how everything's going to hell, and it's terrible and it's awful.

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但如果你真正观察这些人的行为,绝大多数人仍在上班,努力更认真地工作,照顾家人,教孩子正面的东西。

And but if you actually look at what those same people are doing, the vast majority of them are going to work, trying to look work a little bit harder, trying to take care of their family, trying to teach their kids good things.

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人们所说的和他们实际做的之间存在巨大差距,我认为你知道该更关注哪一个。

There's a huge gap between what people say and what they actually do, and I think you know which one you should pay more attention to.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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如果某件事根本无法知晓,那你最好别太聪明,因为聪明人容易骗自己以为自己知道,而普通人更可能说‘我不知道’,从而更接近现实。

If something is impossible to know, you are better off not being very smart because smart people can fool themselves into thinking that they know, while average people are more likely to say, I don't know, and end up closer to reality.

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这一点我认为对投资来说最为重要,因为投资吸引了很多聪明人,很多受过高等教育的精英,而这些人往往难以接受‘我不知道’这种说法。

That one, I think, is probably most important to investing, where it attracts a lot of very smart people, a lot of very big brains with big educations, and those tend to be the people who cannot bring themselves to saying I don't know.

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他们总以为只要再努力动动脑筋,就能想明白,结果反而骗自己相信了一些根本无法知晓的事情。

They wanna think that if they just crank the gears in their head a little bit harder, they'll figure it out, and they end up fooling themselves into believing things that are unknowable.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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上学时,我记得所有听过的好故事,却记不住考前背过的任何公式。

From school, I remember every good story that I was told, but none of the formulas I memorized before taking a test.

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我认为这主要关乎良好的沟通方式。

This one I think is mainly just about good forms of communication.

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没人喜欢听说教,但每个人都喜欢并记得一个好故事。

Nobody wants a lecture, but everybody loves and remembers a good story.

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无论你从事什么职业,都可以记住这一点。

I think you can keep that in mind no matter what career you're in.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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好的营销在短期内获胜,但好的产品在长期中胜出。

Good marketing wins in the short run, but good products win in the long run.

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也许我还可以补充一点。

Maybe I would add to that too.

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在过去十年或二十年里,风险投资和种子轮融资以及初创企业激增,这一点尤其明显。

This has been especially true for the last ten or twenty years when there's been an explosion in venture capital and seed stage funding and startups.

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好产品和好企业之间的区别,可能相差一百英里。

The difference between a good product and a good business can be a 100 miles wide.

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我认为过去十年或十五年硅谷发生的事情,是大量卓越产品的爆发。

And I think a lot of what has happened in Silicon Valley in the last ten or fifteen years has been an explosion of amazing products.

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有很多了不起的产品,但真正优秀的企业却寥寥无几。

Lots of amazing products, but very few good businesses.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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我上周读到这个。

I read this last week.

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杰夫·贝佐斯多次说过,如果我们希望亚马逊成为建设者能够施展才华的地方,我们就需要减少沟通,而不是鼓励沟通。

Jeff Bezos said many times that if we wanted Amazon to be a place where builders can build, we need to eliminate communication, not encourage it.

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这个观点很有趣,不是吗?

That's a fascinating comment, isn't it?

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因为很多企业都认为,我们需要更多的沟通。

Because so many businesses are like, we need more communication.

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我们需要我们的团队彼此交流沟通。

We need our teams to talk to each other and communicate.

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但巴塞尔说:不。

And Basil was like, no.

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如果你想创新和创造,你就需要独处一隅,不要让人在你背后指手画脚,说你疯了或者做错了。

If you wanna be innovative and build, you need to be in your own silo without people looking over your shoulder telling you that you're crazy and doing it wrong.

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我认为这一点无论你从事什么职业,都反映了一个更广泛的问题,那就是自主权的价值和好处——能够不受他人指责你做错事的恐惧去做事。

And this I think speaks to something very broad no matter your profession, which is the value and the benefit of autonomy and being able to do things without the fear of someone telling you that you're doing it wrong.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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在学校里,老师告诉你论文至少要写满五页。

In school, they tell you that your paper must be a minimum of five pages long.

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在现实世界中,你只有五秒钟的时间抓住别人的注意力,之后他们就会厌倦并转头离开。

In the real world, you have five seconds to catch someone's attention before they get bored and move on.

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无论你如何沟通,无论是邮件、短信还是书籍,这都很重要。

Doesn't matter how you're communicating, whether it's email or text or a book, that's important.

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人们的注意力非常短暂。

People have very short attention spans.

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告诉他们需要知道的信息,然后继续前进。

Tell them what they need to know and then move on.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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在危险中感到不确定令人非常难受。

Uncertainty amid danger feels awful.

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因此,即使你根本不知道自己在说什么,拥有坚定的观点也会让人感到安慰,因为当风险很高时,耸耸肩显得过于鲁莽。

So it is comforting to have strong opinions even when you have no idea what you're talking about because shrugging your shoulders feels reckless when the stakes are high.

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当你最常看到这种情况时,通常发生在经济衰退、熊市或像新冠这样的大流行期间。

When you see this most often, it's something like during a recession or a bear market or a pandemic like COVID nineteen.

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当真正没有任何答案、没人知道下一步会发生什么时,许多人就会抛出自己最坚定的信念,说:我知道下一步会发生什么。

When there are truly no answers and nobody knows what's gonna happen next, that's when a lot of people come out with their firmest beliefs and say, I know what's gonna happen next.

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这就是将会发生的事。

This is what's gonna happen.

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这就是你需要做的。

Here's what you need to do.

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这恰恰是你最不该接受或说出这种建议的时候。

It's actually the worst time that you wanna take that advice or say it yourself.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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一个工程师即使除了工程之外什么都不知道,也能拥有成功的职业生涯。

An engineer can have a successful career knowing nothing other than engineering.

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化学家、气象学家或放射科医生也是如此。

Same for a chemist or a meteorologist or a radiologist.

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商业和投资可不是这样的。

Business and investing don't work like that.

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它们涉及一点点数学、一点点会计、一点点社会学、一点点心理学,还有一些市场营销、法律、政治、博弈论、历史、统计学、生物学、公共关系,等等。

They're a little bit of math, a little bit of accounting, a little bit of sociology, a little bit of psychology, a few parts marketing, law, politics, game theory, history, statistics, biology, public relations, on and on.

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这并不意味着它们比其他领域更难,只是更不确定、更容易变化,且专家更少。

That does not make them harder than other fields, just more uncertain and prone to change and with fewer experts.

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我喜欢这一个。

I like that one.

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下一个,简短的一个。

Next one, a short one.

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对值得你忠诚的人保持忠诚是一件美好的事。

Being loyal to people who deserve your loyalty is a wonderful thing.

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当然,我要强调的是,那些值得你忠诚的人寥寥无几。

Of course, I would highlight there people who deserve your loyalty, few and far between.

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但当你找到他们时,无论是家人还是雇主,这都是一件美好的事。

But when you find them, whether that's your family or an employer, it's a wonderful thing.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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大多数职业如果每个月能有一天只用来思考,都会从中受益。

Most professions would benefit from at least one day a month where you did nothing but think.

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没有会议,没有电话,没有交付任务。

No meetings, no calls, no deliverables.

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只是坐在沙发上,思考哪些方面有效,哪些无效,以及你该如何应对。

Just a seat on the couch thinking about what's working and what's not and what you should do about it.

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有些领域每周都需要这样的一天,但这种情况很少见,因为坐在沙发上看起来不像在工作。

One day a week is necessary for some fields, but it is rare because sitting on the couch doesn't look like work.

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即使很明显你的工作需要思考,也应当给予思考的时间,管理者们还是会皱眉。

So managers raise an eyebrow even if it's obvious that your job involves thinking and should be given time to think.

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我告诉你,偶尔我会在飞机航班上这么做。

I'll tell you what, once in a while, I will do this on a plane flight.

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我经常因工作旅行,有时在航班上,我会说:关掉网络,不看书,不听播客。

I travel all the time for work, and sometimes on a flight, I will say, Internet, no books, no podcasts.

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我会坐在这里两三个小时,不受孩子大喊大叫、拉我裤腿、邮件、短信或电话的打扰,好好思考。

I'm gonna sit here for the next two or three hours and think unburdened by my kids yelling at me or pulling at my at my pant leg or emails or texts or calls.

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我会坐在这里思考生活中哪些方面进展顺利,哪些出了问题,如何改善,以及我感激什么。

I'm gonna sit here and think about what's going right in life, what's going wrong, how I can fix things, what I'm grateful for.

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我非常喜欢这样。

I love it.

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这就像一种非正式的心理疗愈。

It's like a form of unofficial therapy.

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我强烈推荐这种方式。

Can't recommend it enough.

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好吧。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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风险是你看不到的、认为只发生在别人身上、没有留意、或故意忽视的,而且新闻里也从不提及的东西。

Risk is what you cannot see or think only happens to other people or aren't paying attention to or are willfully ignoring and isn't in the news.

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突如其来的事件通常比那些已在新闻中报道数月的大事造成更大的损害。

Being surprised usually does more damage than something big that's been in the news for months.

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我经常谈论这个。

I talk about this all the time.

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风险就是你没有预料到的事情。

Risk is what you don't see coming.

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你可以今天看新闻、读新闻,看到世界上正在发生的各种坏事。

You can watch the news today, read the news, and see all the bad things happening in the world.

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我敢保证,未来一年或五年内最大的风险,是那些尚未登上新闻的事情。

I guarantee you, the biggest risk over the next year or over the next five years is something that is not in the news.

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它之所以危险,正是因为它是意外,且无人谈论。

The fact that it's a surprise and no one is talking about it is what will make it dangerous.

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一直以来都是这样。

It's always been like that.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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即使在某些事件发生很久之后,也要花很长时间才能意识到它们的后果。

It can take a long time to realize the consequences of some events even long after they've happened.

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1930年1月,也就是引发大萧条的股市崩盘两个月后,一项全国性民调询问美国人认为美国最大的问题是什么,他们依次回答:第一,司法管理。

In January 1930, two months after the stock market crash that sparked the Great Depression, a nationwide poll asked Americans what they considered the biggest problem in America was, and they said, in order, number one, administration of justice.

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第二,禁酒令。

Number two, prohibition.

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第三,无法无天、对法律的不尊重、犯罪、执法、世界和平,第七才是经济。

Number three, lawlessness, disrespect for the law, crime, law enforcement, world peace, and number seven was the economy.

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再次强调,这是股市崩盘两个月后的情况。

Again, that's two months after the stock market crash.

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美国第七大问题竟是经济。

The seventh biggest problem in America was the economy.

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历史学家弗雷德里克·刘易斯·艾利森曾写道:‘人们通常不是在崩溃期间起义,而是在崩溃之后。'

Historian Frederick Lewis Island once wrote that, quote, it is not usually during a collapse that men rebel, but after it.

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我觉得这一直是对的。

I think that's always true.

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我想在这里做一个预测。

And I would make one prediction here.

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我们现在,距离新冠疫情开始已经五年了,对吧?

We are now, what, five years past the start of COVID nineteen?

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当然,从实际角度来看,早就结束了。

Of course, long long over in all practical terms.

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我认为我们仍然没有理解它将带来的社会、政治和代际影响。

I don't think we still understand the social and political and generational impacts that it's gonna have.

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我们可能还需要再过十年或二十年才能理解这些影响。

We might not understand them for another ten or twenty years.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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在社交媒体上,很容易把获得关注误认为是正确或受人钦佩。

It is easy to mistake getting attention for being right or being admired, especially on social media.

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这里不需要其他评论。

No other commentary needed there.

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下一个。

Next one.

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最有价值的个人财务资产,就是不需要给任何人留下印象,尤其是陌生人。

The most valuable personal financial asset is not needing to impress anybody, especially strangers.

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如果你根本不想给陌生人留下印象,只想用钱改善自己和家人的生活,那这是一项了不起的资产。

If you have no desire to impress strangers and you just wanna use your money to improve your life and your family's life, that's an incredible asset.

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好的。

Alright.

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继续往下看。

Going down the list here.

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比物价通胀更严重的问题是预期通胀,即你对满足感的需求不断上升。

A bigger problem than price inflation is expectations inflation, which is a constant increase in what you need to be satisfied.

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人们知道鸡蛋或汽油价格上涨时的情况,但要察觉到自己的期望上升、对美好生活定义的提升却要困难得多。

People know when the price of eggs or the price of gasoline goes up, it's much harder to track when your expectations go up, when your definition of a good life goes up.

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但这是一种非常有害的通胀形式。

But that is a very pernicious form of inflation.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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我对任何不可持续的事情都没有兴趣。

I have no interest in anything that's not sustainable.

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生活中许多领域的关键在于耐力和持久性。

The key to success in so many areas of life is endurance and longevity.

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只要坚持得够久,一切都会复利增长。

Just sticking around for long times, that's when everything compounds.

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one.

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任何程度的智慧都可能被自负、不安全感、不道德、不良激励或急躁所压倒,通常就是这个顺序。

Any amount of intelligence can be overridden by ego, insecurity, immorality, bad incentives, or impatience, usually in that order.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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我一些最好的作品写起来很容易,而我写过的最差的东西则令人痛苦不堪。

Some of my best work was easy to write, and the worst stuff that I've ever written was agonizing to write.

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我认为在大多数领域都是如此。

I think it's similar in most fields.

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如果一个想法很好,那么整个流程就会很顺畅。

If an idea is good, the workflow is easily.

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作家的灵感枯竭,或其它工作中类似的障碍,通常意味着你的想法是错的。

Writer's block or its equivalent in other jobs usually mean that your idea is wrong.

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我最近听到有人说过类似的观点,那就是如果一件事在顺利进行,你很容易低估它能变得多大。

I recently heard someone say a similar idea, which is that if something is working, it's easy to underestimate how big it can get.

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而如果一件事不顺利,你也很容易低估自己有多糟糕。

And if something is not working, it's easy to underestimate how screwed you are.

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我们继续。

Moving on here.

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我非常喜欢布伦特·贝肖尔的观察:我完全乐意看着你做我不感兴趣的事情而变得极其富有。

I love Brent Beshore's observation that I am a 100% happy to watch you get really rich doing something that I have no interest in doing.

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生活并不总是一场竞争,适合某人并带来他们成功的东西,未必适合你,这没关系。

Life is not always a competition, and what works for someone and the success that they're getting might not be right for you, and that's okay.

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也许从中学到的另一点是,要更习惯为他人的成功喝彩,而不是嫉妒。

Maybe another takeaway from that is get more used to cheering for other people's success rather than being jealous of it.

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对吧?

Right?

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好的。

Alright.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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有了正确的激励,人们会被引导去相信并捍卫几乎任何事情。

With the right incentives, people can be led to believe and defend almost anything.

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只要激励得当,几乎任何事都可以。

Almost anything if their incentives are right.

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一个令人不安的启示是,你、我以及我们每个人都会低估自己道德的边界,因为我们低估了激励对我们行为的影响。

And a really uncomfortable takeaway here is that you and I and every one of us underestimates the boundaries of our morality, let's say, because we underestimate the influence that incentives can have on our behavior.

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下一个。

Next one.

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乐观和悲观总是会过度,因为要了解它们的边界,就必须稍微越过它们。

Optimism and pessimism always overshoot because the only way to know the boundaries of either is to go a little bit past them.

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所以股市并不知道它的估值能涨到多高,除非它稍微超过不合理的位置。

So the stock market doesn't know how high it can get with the with the highest valuation it can get to unless it goes a little bit past unreasonable.

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然后人们说,好吧。

And then people say, okay.

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这太过分了。

That was too much.

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我们走得太远了。

We've gone too far.

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所以生活中、商业中、投资中、政治中,很多事情总是在两端的极端之间来回摇摆。

So a lot of things in life, in business, in investing, in life, in politics are always toggling between extremes on either end.

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朝任何一个极端疯狂地偏移,因为只有这样,这些系统才能找到自身能力的边界。

Extreme crazy in either direction because that's how those systems find the boundaries of what they're capable of.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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对人友善,是最容易获得的职业竞争优势。

Being nice to people is the easiest career competitive advantage.

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简单到极致。

So simple.

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别当个混蛋就行了。

Just don't be a jerk.

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拜托,各位。

Come on, guys.

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研究历史最难的地方在于,你知道故事的结局,这让你根本无法设身处地去想象过去的人们当时在想什么、感受什么。

The hardest thing when studying history is that you know how the story ends, which makes it impossible to put yourself in people's shoes and imagine what they were thinking or feeling in the past.

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让我给你一个很好的例子。

Let me give you a good example of this.

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当你我研究大萧条以及人们当时所经历的一切时,我们无法真正理解他们究竟经历了什么,因为我们知道今天这一切结束了。

When you and I study the Great Depression and what people were going through, we cannot understand what they actually went through because you and I know today that it ended.

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但他们当时并不知道。

They didn't know it back then.

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在1932年,他们不知道大萧条会结束,顺便说一句,很多人认为它不会结束。

Back in 1932, they didn't know that it would end, and a lot of people thought it wouldn't, by the way.

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因此,我们不可能重现他们当时所感受到的不确定性和恐惧。

And so it's impossible for us, impossible to replicate the uncertainty and the fear that they felt back then.

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你可以将这一点延伸到战争、政治、经济、商业,甚至你个人生活中的任何其他重大事件。

And you could extrapolate that to any other big event in war, in politics, in the economy, in business, in your personal life.

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当你研究过去发生的事情时,你无法重现人们当时所经历的情感。

When you're studying what happened in the past, you cannot replicate the emotions that people had at the time.

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下一个。

Next one here.

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我们低估了自己适应的能力。

We underestimate our ability to adapt.

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大多数悲观情绪的根源,在于未能认识到人们、企业和经济都能适应,并从最严峻的挫折中恢复过来。

The root of most pessimism is the failure to recognize that people and business and economies acclimate and move on from even the toughest setbacks.

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也许这对如今似乎焦虑不安的人们来说,算是一点点乐观的提醒。

Maybe that's a little bit of optimism for people today who seem to be on edge, of course, lately.

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最后一点,来总结一下。

And last one here to wrap this up.

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如果你不够了解一个人,无法看到他们所有的不足,那就最容易让他们相信你很特别。

It is easiest to convince people that you are special if they don't know you well enough to see all the ways that you are not.

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现在,我钦佩很多人。

Now, I admire a lot of people.

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我希望能花很多时间与很多人相处,但没有人是真正完美的。

I wanna spend a lot of time with a lot of people, but nobody is truly perfect in any sense.

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我们所钦佩的许多人物——无论是名人还是商人——之所以容易让我们钦佩,正是因为你不那么了解他们。

And a lot of the people who we are admiring, celebrities or business people, whoever they might be, the reason that it's easy to admire them is because you don't know them that well.

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看到他们不可避免的缺陷,他们思维上的不足,以及他们必然拥有的性格缺陷。

To see them for their inevitable flaws, their flaws in thinking, their flaws in personality that they inevitably have.

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我认为这实际上是一种相当乐观的领悟,因为它能让你对自己感觉好一些,明白你所仰慕的人虽然拥有令人钦佩的特质,值得你效仿,

And that I think is actually a pretty optimistic realization because it makes you feel hopefully a little bit better about yourself, knowing that the people who you look up to may have traits that are amazing that you wanna try to emulate.

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但每个人,你我以及所有人,都在应对和挣扎于自己不可避免的缺点。

But everybody, you and me and everyone else is dealing with and struggling with their inevitable faults.

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本周就到这里。

That's it for this week.

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再次感谢收听,我们下次再见。

Thanks again for listening, and we'll see you next time.

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