Policy Shifts and Market Risks: Japan, Inflation, and the Fed

欢迎收听三菱日联金融集团全球市场外汇前瞻播客，本期嘉宾是欧洲、中东和非洲地区全球市场研究主管德里克·哈尔彭尼。

Welcome to the MUFG Global Markets FX week ahead podcast with Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets, EMEA, and International Securities.

今天是2026年10月7日，星期五，与德里克一起探讨本周金融市场热点的是外汇机构销售业务的詹姆斯·罗尔斯顿。

It's Friday 07/10/2026, and joining Derek to pose some questions on the financial market themes for the week ahead is James Roulston, FX Institutional Sales.

本材料仅限于在适用法律、规则和监管允许的司法管辖区内的专业投资者使用。

This material is only intended for professional investors in jurisdictions in which its use is permitted under applicable laws, rules and regulations.

本材料仅供信息参考，不构成任何投资研究或建议。

It has been produced for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment research or advice.

三菱日联金融集团欧洲、中东和非洲地区的免责声明和披露内容，请访问我们的官网查阅。

MUFG EMEA disclaimers and disclosures can be located on our website.

德里克，周五快乐。

Happy Friday, Derek.

是的，确实如此。

Indeed.

你也一样，詹姆斯。

And the same to you, James.

非常感谢你再次同意参与这次对话。

Thank you very much for agreeing to do this again.

和往常一样，今天要聊的内容挺多的。

This is quite a few bits and pieces as always to discuss.

最近刚发生了一些事，如果能再展望一下下周的情况，那就更好了。

Couple of things that have just happened, and then if we can look forward to to next week as well, it'd be great.

首先，我们的所有客户都在讨论加山的言论，这些话如何影响日元市场，以及养老金基金的动向，未来还可能引发一系列连锁反应。

First up, all our clients are talking about Katayama's comments and how it sort of shapes the the the yen space, but the pension fund space, and it sort of has a lot of repercussions going forward.

是的。

Yeah.

你对这些言论怎么看？我们该怎么理解它们？

What what was your take on the comments, and and how do we sort of interpret it?

对。

Yeah.

从政策角度来看，我 definitely 认为这些言论意义重大。

Pretty like, I would definitely class the comment as very significant from a a policy perspective.

我们确实收到了初步的反应。

And we did get an initial reaction.

其中一些在外汇市场上已经逐渐消退了。

Some of it has faded in FX.

日元后来稍微回稳了一点，但我认为它今天仍然是G10货币中表现最好的。

The end has weakened back a little bit, but I think it's still the top performing g 10 currency today.

日本国债收益率下跌了。

JGB yields fell.

股市表现不错。

Equities did did well.

这显然有不小的意义。

So there was definitely a significance to it.

詹姆斯，这个意义不在于短期会发生什么，因为我觉得它未必会产生太大影响。

And, James, the significance is not necessarily what happens over the short term because I don't think it necessarily will have much impact.

但如果你放眼更长远的格局，比如回看安倍经济学，确实如此。

But I think if you look at the bigger picture, like if we go back to Abenomics Yeah.

安倍晋三上台时，安倍经济学正式启动。

And the whole launch of Abenomics when prime minister Abe came to power.

他做的一件事是，启动了对养老金投资的全面审查。

And one of the things he did was he he kinda launched a review of pension investments.

这其中的逻辑是，作为安倍经济学整体刺激政策的一部分，提升养老金投资回报，能增强公众对日本养老金体系的信心，进而降低家庭储蓄倾向，推动国内消费增长。

And one of the logics here was as part of the whole reflation idea in relation to its general policy under agenomics, getting better returns on pension investments would feed through into better confidence in the Japanese pension system, and that would in turn reduce the appetite for portion savings amongst Japanese households, resulting in better spending at home.

审查的结果是，日本在经历数十年的轻微通缩后重新步入通胀，因此国内债券的持仓比例过高了。

And the consequence of that review was that given Japan was entering back into inflation after decades of mild deflation, the holdings of domestic bonds was too high.

由此直接催生了养老金投资基金（GPIF）的首次重大资产配置调整——当时，国内债券的占比高达60%。

And ultimately, leading from that was the first big reallocation changes in relation to GPIF, the government pension investment fund, where at that point in time, the domestic bond holding was at 60%.

没错。

Right.

于是就有了第一次调整，国内资产的配置比例被下调了。

So that resulted in the first change, and that was the domestic holdings was dropped.

配置比例从60%降到了35%。

The allocation was dropped from 60 to 35%.

另外三项资产的比重都提高了。

The other three assets were increased in size.

到了2020年，国内债券的配置比例又被进一步下调，从35%降到25%。

And then again, in 2020, the domestic bond holding was reduced further from 35% to 25%.

可以说，从安倍上台到现在，一直都在推动把资金投向收益更高的海外资产。

So really, you know, since Abe came to power up until this point in time, there has been this focus on investing in higher yielding foreign securities.

而今天早上加藤的发言，很可能意味着这项政策即将终结。

And the remarks from Katayama this morning essentially marks the potential end of that policy.

我觉得这确实意义重大。

And in that, I think it's definitely very, very significant.

说到我之前提到的短期影响，其实加藤财相这番话来得非常突然，所以市场才会这么反应。

I think going back to the short term implication comment that I made, look, this was a kind of an out of the blue comment from finance minister Katayama, hence the reaction of the markets.

但我们其实还不清楚背后到底有什么具体的政策调整或计划。

But we don't really know the meat behind this in terms of policy changes and plans, etcetera, etcetera.

最终，决定日本公共养老金投资目标的并不是财务省。

Ultimately, it's not the MOF who control the setting of the objectives in relation to Japan's public pension funds.

这由厚生劳动省负责。

That rests with the ministry of health, labor, and welfare.

所以我认为，首先我们得看到更多关于此事的讨论，更多公开的表态，然后厚生劳动省才可能对日本政府养老投资基金的整体目标做出重大调整。

So I think, first of all, we probably need to see more discussions on this, more comments publicly, but then the potential for the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare making an overarching change to the objective remit of the GPIF.

而这样一来，最终会带来资产配置的变动。

And that then would ultimately result in an allocation change.

对。

Yeah.

不过，抱歉，我简单提一下，目前的资产配置调整是五年一个周期。

Now the Sorry, just very quickly, the current allocation change is in a five year cycle.

是的。

Yeah.

我们现在正处于第五个周期的最后一年，但这个周期实际上要到2030年才结束。

We're in the fifth year fifth cycle at the moment, which actually doesn't end until 2030.

但别被这个时间表迷惑了，因为一旦决定调整，日本政府养老投资基金随时都可以改变当前的资产配置比例。

But don't be fooled by that because ultimately, if a change is made, there is nothing to stop the GPIF from altering its current allocation mix.

所以这件事可能会提前发生，但毕竟还是有个时间框架，我觉得肯定需要不少时间。

So it could happen before that, but there's still a timeframe involved that I think will certainly take time.

不过我觉得这事儿意义重大。

But it is very significant, I think.

你刚才的回答完全说中了我的想法。

You you answered my question perfectly there.

我还没开口呢，我就觉得2030年这个时间点好像给了我们一些缓冲余地。

Just even before I said it, it it the the 2030 timeline seemed to give this a bit of a buffer.

但你刚才说的，实际上在很大程度上消除了这种缓冲感。

And what you've just said there, it sort of eradicates that to an extent.

这就像一个雪球效应的开端，也许这就是第一块铺路的石子。

It's it's the starting of maybe a snowball effect of this is the first conversation at stepping stones.

是的。

Yeah.

其实呢，今天早上这不过是一场普通的记者会。

Like, you know, this was just a regular press conference this morning.

所以，除此之外，我们了解得并不多。

So, again, we don't know much beyond that.

不过，这个评论的时间点确实有它的逻辑。

But, of course, there is a logic to the timing of the comment.

你知道，最近日本国债收益率出现了明显上涨。

You know, we've had a significant jump in in in JGP yields.

理论上，单看收益率水平和海外市场的对比，资产配置上出现一些调整是合乎情理的。

And in in in theory, just looking at the level of yields compared to what you get abroad, there is a an obvious, you know, logic to some potential shift in assets.

如果政府能稍微推一把，当然有帮助，但并不是决定性的因素。

And if the government can push that along a little bit, it helps, but it's not the be all and end all.

日本央行的货币政策立场、整体市场波动、海外利率走势——这些因素都得一起考虑进去。

And the fundamental backdrop in terms of the BOJ's monetary stance, in terms of general volatility, market conditions, rates abroad, all of that has to be thrown into the mix

同样重要。

as well.

刚才提到的另一个点，是关于日本或其养老基金目前已持有的美元资产，以及这些持仓可能受到的影响。

The the bit that was sort of thrown into the conversation was maybe to do with the US dollar holdings that that that Japan or that the the pension funds already have and how that potentially could be impacted there.

而且，我们都知道，过去几周或几个月里，我们和美国人就价格核查之类的事有过一些对话，这可能早就已经在进行了。

And maybe these conversations that we know have happened over the last couple of weeks or months with with the Americans about the price checks and things like that, that this could have been a conversation that's been happening already.

这或许是我们第一次听到这样的迹象，说明这可能是一个正在发展的趋势。

And and this is maybe the first indication that we're hearing of it, that this is is something maybe a a storyline that that could be going forward.

是的。

Yeah.

很有可能，确实如此。

You know, possibly, for sure.

我觉得，很明显，政策上不可能出现剧烈的转向。

Like, I think, obviously, you know, you you're never gonna get an aggressive push in terms of policy.

框架和指导原则早就定好了。

It's kind of the parameters and the guidelines are set.

随着时间推移，你会慢慢看到变化，毕竟从美国政府的角度来看，他们肯定不希望看到美元持仓被突然抛售。

Gradually over time, you see changes taking place because obviously from a US administration perspective, they certainly wouldn't wouldn't want to see abrupt liquidations of dollar positions Yeah.

关于资本外流。

On on capital flight.

所以，没错。

So but yeah.

你知道，华盛顿那边也有担忧，特别是日元持续走强的问题。

You you know, there there are concerns in Washington also, obviously, in terms of Dolly and continuing to move higher.

所以从双方角度看，如果能至少让日元恢复一些稳定和回升，长期来看确实更有利，毕竟日元疲软直接推高了日本国债收益率。

So in a way, it makes sense from both sides that if you could at least bring back some stabilization and some recovery in the yen, that that's more beneficial in the long run because definitely linked to yen weakness is rising JGB yields.

是的。

Yeah.

而这两点都跟日本央行息息相关。

Linked to those two is the BOJ.

除了政策指引，还需要做大量工作，比如鼓励海外投资、吸引资金回流。

So there's a lot that needs to be done outside of policy guidance, investments abroad and bringing money back home.

最重要的是，得让日本央行的货币政策立场变得更可信，让国内投资者相信当前收益率水平具有吸引力，而不是想着：‘算了，再等六个月，利率可能又高出五十个基点了。’

First and foremost, you need to get the BOJ's monetary stance to a more credible level that instills confidence in domestic investors to believe that yields are at attractive levels rather than, well, actually, if we wait six months' time, we could be 50 basis points further higher.

让日本央行的政策回归中性水平，至关重要。

Getting to a proper neutral level on BOJ policy is important.

所以我们认为，他们的行动速度会比当前市场预期的更快。

And hence why we think they're gonna move more quickly than what's currently priced into the market.

明白了。

Okay.

所以九月会加息，2027年1月还会再加一次。

So a hike in September and another hike in January 2027.

很好。

Great.

完美，德里克。

Perfect, Derek.

我觉得你已经把要点都说清楚了，也引发了大量讨论。

I think that summed up the comments, and it's obviously opened lots of conversations.

真是太好了。

That's that's brilliant.

确实如此。

Definitely.

我觉得如果我们暂时放下日本，从更广的视角来看，过去几天大家讨论的核心话题其实是中东局势的外溢影响，特别是霍尔木兹海峡再次出现的摩擦，以及这些事如何影响更大的全局。

I think if we step away from Japan and look more broadly at the the sort of main topic that people have been discussing over the last couple days, which is the Middle East fallout or the the the increase of skirmishes again on the Strait Of Hormuz and and how that sort of impacts the the wider story of what's going on.

你对此怎么看？

What what what's your sort of take?

我们每次周五都会聊这个话题，这已经成惯例了。

And we we always sort of have this these conversation obviously on a Friday.

是的。

Yeah.

眼看就要进入周末，我们往往只能摸着石头过河，尽量预判一下。

Leading into the weekend, and we're always going in a little bit blind, we're trying to Yeah.

看看会不会出现避险情绪。

See a risk off sort of scenario.

我们现在看到的是这种情况吗？

Is is that what we're seeing?

说实话，到目前为止，还没怎么显现出来。

Well, so far, not so much, to be honest.

是的。

Yeah.

你明白吧？

You know?

我觉得所有情况最终都会反映在原油价格上。

And I guess everything comes through the channel of crude oil prices.

布伦特原油的价格从大约每桶72美元涨到了76.50美元。

And crude has gone from Brent has gone from roughly 72 to $76.50.

是的。

Yeah.

但从整体来看，这点涨幅根本算不了什么。

Which in the broader scheme of things is nothing much at all.

所以目前对整体市场状况还没造成什么明显影响。

And therefore, it doesn't have much reverberation in terms of broader market conditions at this point in time.

当然，利率确实有了一些上升，我认为这主要是市场重新评估了通胀风险的结果。

Now there has been some move up in rates for sure, and and I think that's definitely a consequence of a reassessment of the inflation risks.

你还是觉得原油市场背后有着根本性的看跌趋势吧。

You still feel that there's this ultimate bearish backdrop to crude oil markets.

我觉得这一点现在依然在起作用。

And that I think is still playing a role here.

比如，跟我们在迪拜的同事交流时，他们提到中东地区的情况是，这些国家在冲突后更急于夺回市场份额，导致竞争异常激烈，这显然对价格不利。

Like for example, speaking to our Dubai colleagues, what they have heard and what they're seeing in terms of Middle East is that Middle Eastern countries have or are a lot more concerned about regaining its market share post conflict, which is resulting intense competition, which is obviously a negative for price.

我们还看到沙特阿美公布了8月份销往亚洲的官方售价，每桶下调了11美元。

And we saw Saudi Aramco's announcement of its official selling price in Asia, which was cut by $11 for loadings in August.

这是二十年来最大的月度降幅。

That's the biggest monthly cut in two decades.

所以我觉得，争夺市场份额的竞争可能会持续加剧。

So I think intensifying competition for market share is something that could continue.

但显然，迟早会到这么一个节点——那时供应进一步受挫的影响，会超过市场份额的竞争，毕竟全球原油库存高达82亿桶，我之前也提过。

But obviously, there would still come a point where that becomes less relevant than a further hit to supply that diminishes further what was a very large global inventory of crude oil, 8,200,000,000 barrels, which I've mentioned here before.

我觉得这也是压低原油价格的一个因素。

I think that's played a role in limiting crude oil prices as well.

但如果库存还要进一步下降，现在确实该到这个时候了。

But if inventories are to be diminished further on the straight of foreclosing down again, it's still about time.

最终，原油价格很可能会大幅上涨。

And ultimately, you would get to a point where I think crude oil would ultimately start to move much more sharply higher.

那时候，股市可能会面临收益率剧烈波动的风险。

And that's when you get potentially yields disrupting risk in terms of equities.

而外汇市场的波动性也会突然飙升，但到目前为止，它还一直非常平静。

And then I think that's when you get a much bigger spike in FX volatility, which up until now has still been very, very muted.

是的。

Yeah.

霍尔木兹海峡那边总有各种各样的消息，比如局势再度升级之类的。

There's there's all always so many different stories that you can get from the Strait Of Gormuz and and reescalation.

我最近进来之前看到一篇彭博的报道，说卡塔尔因为一艘油轮遭袭，暂停了液化天然气的运输。

One of the Bloomberg posts that I I saw recently just before coming in was was to do with Qatar pausing its LNG shipments through because of the the strike on one of the the the tankers.

是的。

Yeah.

所以，你知道，还有很多其他方面的消息，跟石油的具体情况没直接关系。

So, you you know, there's there's a lot of of wider stories that is away from, you know, the specifics of oil.

石油当然是主要话题，但比宏观层面的分析要复杂得多。

Obviously, oil is the the main main story, but there there's a lot more going on than than the the high level macro stuff.

对吧？

Right?

是的。

Yeah.

不对。

No.

当然了。

Definitely.

再拿外汇来说，比如套利交易，原油价格在我们这次小幅上涨之前，其实已经完全回吐了战后那段涨幅。

And and and again, taking that to FX, for example, in terms of a divergence trade, well, crude oil has well, before this small spike that we've had, crude oil basically has fully retraced a post conflict surge in price.

但欧洲的天然气价格却没有。

Whereas natural gas prices in Europe have not.

所以TTF主力合约相比冲突前的水平，仍然上涨了50%以上。

So the TTF front contract is still up over 50% compared to the pre conflict level.

从欧洲央行的角度来看，问题不只是原油。

And from an ECB perspective, it's not just crude oil.

真正影响欧洲央行通胀预测的是天然气价格。

It's it's natural gas prices that feed into the ECB's inflation projections.

而且本周公布的会议纪要里也特别提醒，2027到2028年的通胀预测是基于能源期货曲线得出的。

And indeed in the minutes that were released this week, there was a reminder in the minutes about the fact that the inflation forecasts in 2728 are based on the energy futures curves.

虽然原油价格现在低一些，但天然气价格明显高得多。

And while it's lower for crude, it's notably higher Yep.

TTF天然气就是如此。

For TTF natural gas.

因此，欧洲这边潜藏着通胀风险，这会让欧洲央行更倾向于再次加息，不像美国，那里的天然气价格被压得低得多。

So there's an inflation risk embedded there for Europe that would certainly be more encouraging for the ECB to raise rates again than, say, for The United States where, of course, natural gas prices are are capped much, much lower.

说得很到位。

Brilliant.

好的。

Okay.

非常感谢你，德里克。

Thank thank you very much, Derek.

这周我们一直在讨论这些主要话题。

That's sort of the big conversations that we've been having this week.

对。

Yeah.

我们能看看下周会有什么动向吗？

Could we look forward at what's happening next week?

我想在我们开始之前刚提到过，周二会有美国的CPI数据，还有凯文·沃什的证词发言。

I think we mentioned just before we're coming on, we've got The US CPI on Tuesday, and then we've got some, I was gonna say comments, but sort of a statement testimony with of Kevin Warsh.

没错。

Yes.

那我们具体该关注CPI和这些发言的哪些方面呢？

What should we be looking at specifically CPI and and and comments?

是的

Yeah.

实际上，这两件事只相隔不到一个半小时。

Well, they're actually those two events are within ninety minutes of each other.

证词从凌晨三点开始。

So the the testimony starts at 03:00.

当然，伦敦时间是凌晨一点半。

01:30, of course, is the London times.

凌晨一点半公布的是CPI数据。

These are 01:30 is the CPI.

是的

Yeah.

CPI特别关键，因为现在市场对美联储利率的预期，已经押了将近40个基点的降息空间到明年第一季度。考虑到六月的就业数据表现疲软，这种定价更多反映的是通胀风险，而不是就业市场的担忧。

Like, CPI is massively important because I think when you look at where rate expectations are now for the Fed, about 40 basis points of titling through to q one next year, given the fact that the labor market data this month was was weak for June, you can tell that that pricing is very much related to the risks on the inflation side rather than on the labor market side.

是的

Yeah.

从这个角度看，我们得看到价格开始回撤了。

And in that sense, we we need to start seeing a retracement.

目前整体CPI是4.2%，我们需要看到它逐步下降。

We've got the headline CPI of 4.2%, and we need to see that coming down.

我们之所以认为美联储不会加息，反而可能降息，是因为通胀会逐渐回落到2%的目标水平。

Now our view and why we don't think the Fed will cut rates or sorry, hike rates that the next move from the Fed will actually be cut is that inflation is gonna start retracing back towards, excuse me, that that 2% target level.

从2024年中期到2025年、2026年，实际租金涨幅已经明显放缓了。

And you've got rents actual rents slowed from mid twenty twenty four, '25 into 2026.

租金变化反映到CPI数据上，通常会有个延迟。

There's a lag before that gets into the CPI.

所以租金通胀很可能在CPI数据里开始下降。

So there's a good chance rental inflation is gonna start falling in the CPI data.

一年前，CPI里首次明显出现了因关税导致的进口敏感商品价格上涨，比如家具、服装和休闲用品。

A year ago, we also had the first notable increase related to tariffs in import sensitive components within CPI, furnishings, clothing, recreational goods.

这三类是我们一直关注的。

Those are three that we track.

2025年6月，这三项的月度涨幅达到了历史最高点，没错。

And the month on month increase of those three combined in June 2025 was the biggest Okay.

自那以后确实如此。

Since Right.

这是全球性的通胀冲击。

The global inflation shock.

我觉得未来几个月，甚至服装类的价格影响可能会延续到明年第一季度，才会在同比数据中逐渐消退。

Now we you know, I so I think over the coming months, and even actually the apparel could be lagged through until that falling out of it year on year rates maybe in in q one of next year.

但最终，关税带来的通胀压力会开始从年度通胀数据中减弱。

But ultimately, the tariff inflation impact should start falling out of the the annual inflation price.

当然，撇开本周的波动不谈，能源价格的回落也会继续带来通胀缓解。

And then, of course, the dissipation of energy, notwithstanding what's happened this week, we're still going to get some disinflation coming through as well.

所以我认为，只要CPI数据能持续回落，朝2%靠拢就够了。

So all you need, I think, is for at least the CPI rate to be trending back lower, toward 2%.

我不觉得能真的降到2%，但只要趋势是向下的，而且劳动力市场继续保持疲软，像七月公布的六月数据那样，美联储就根本不可能在这种情况下加息。

I don't think we're going to get to 2% but this as long as we're moving lower and the labor market remains relatively subdued, similar ish to the type of print we got in July for June, that to me is there's no way the Fed are going to be hiking rates in that backdrop.

对我们观点最大的风险，当然就是这周发生的事。

The biggest risk to our view, of course, is more of what's happened this week.

是的。

Yeah.

直接全面停摆。

Straight and foremost closes down.

我们会看到局势再度升级。

We get a real re escalation.

最终能源价格会上涨，到那时，再忽视这波能源飙升就越来越难了。

Ultimately, energy prices will go higher, and then Warsh is kind of let's look through the energy spike becomes more and more difficult to to argue.

明白。

Okay.

很好。

Great.

这就是美国的CPI数据。

And and so that's the The US CPI numbers.

那我们觉得，卢克你的说法，会不会在凯文·沃什接下来的讲话中被再次强调呢？

And and do we think that Luke, your words are gonna be reiterated with with Kevin Warsh's conversations straight afterwards.

是的。

Yeah.

你知道，凯文·沃什最近被贴上了突然转鹰的标签，就因为他在FOMC会议上非常明确地重申，委员会一定会实现2%的最终通胀目标。

Like, you know, Kevin Warsh has been tagged as suddenly a hawk simply because at the FOMC meeting, he reiterated quite strongly that the FOMC will pursue and achieve its ultimate 2% inflation goal.

他作为美联储主席的首次记者会，还能说什么别的呢？

What else would he say in his first press conference as Fed chair?

所以我不太认同这种解读。

So I'm not sure I would read it that way.

当然，下周的证词会让我们看得更清楚。

And of course, the testimony next week will give us a better understanding.

当然，如果CPI数据出来不如预期，就在九十分钟前，再加上油价继续上涨，他还是会重申这一点。

Of course, he will still reiterate that, especially if the CPI data comes in maybe disappointing ninety minutes earlier, and if we've had further escalation and crude oil prices are moving higher.

在这种背景下，他确实得更加强调，他们会坚决对抗通胀风险。

That's a backdrop that, yes, he'll have to be more emphasizing that they will fight the inflation risks.

不过呢，他也提到过剔除波动项后的通胀指标，作为衡量核心通胀的很好参考。

So but, you know, he's also spoken about the trimmed mean inflation measures as a very good gauge for underlying inflation.

目前达拉斯联储的剔除波动项通胀率，你想想看。

The Dallas trimmed mean inflation rate at the moment, think.

我上次看的时候是2.3%，跟目标水平挺接近的。

Certainly, the last time I looked, it was 2.3%, relatively close to the target rate.

所以，我不觉得该把他归为鹰派人物。

So, you know, I wouldn't tag him as a hawk, so to speak.

但话说回来，如果到周二中东局势进一步升级，再加上原油价格继续上涨，他们恐怕也只能把抗通胀放在首位了。

But, yeah, the backdrop by Tuesday in The Middle East and crude could make it difficult for them to be other anything other than focusing on fighting inflation.

说到外汇，如果在这次听证会之前中东局势继续恶化，而且CPI数据也没像预期那样明显回落，那美元短期内很可能还会进一步走强。

So, you know, to bring it to FX, obviously, in the context of a further escalation between now and the testimony, you know, and certainly if the CPI doesn't come come down as much as expected, you know, you could certainly see a further leg stronger for the dollar over the short term.

不过，如果我们判断没错——中东局势能缓和，而且我前面说的通胀情况成立，那利率曲线现在就定价过高了，这反而会让美元走弱。

But if our view is correct on the assumptions that The Middle East does deescalate and what I've said about inflation already, the rates curve is overpriced, and that should bring the dollar lower.

很好。

Great.

太棒了。

Fantastic.

德里克，再次感谢你的分享。

Derek, thank you very much again for your comments.

咱们看看周二会怎样，先好好过个周末吧。

Let's see how Tuesday pans out, but enjoy the weekend.

谢谢。

Thank you.

周一再聊。

Speak to you Monday.

非常好。

Brilliant.

谢谢，詹姆斯。

Thanks, James.

非常感谢。

Thanks very much.

再见了。

Cheers.

拜拜。

Bye bye.

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