Why have higher energy prices failed to trigger a stronger USD?

欢迎收听摩根UFJ全球市场外汇前瞻播客，我是高级货币分析师李·哈德曼。

Welcome to the MUFG Global Markets FX week ahead podcast with Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst.

今天是2026年7月17日，星期五。

It's Friday, 07/17/2026.

今天和我一起探讨本周金融市场关键话题的，是货币分析师阿卜杜勒-阿哈德·洛克哈特。

And joining Lee to pose some questions on the financial market themes for the week ahead is Abdul-Ahad Lockhart, currency analyst.

本材料仅面向在适用法律、规则和监管允许的司法管辖区内的专业投资者。

This material is only intended for professional investors in jurisdictions in which its use is permitted under applicable laws, rules and regulations.

本内容仅供信息参考，不构成任何投资研究或建议。

It has been produced for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment research or advice.

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嗨，李。

Hi, Lee.

嗨，阿卜杜勒-阿哈德。

Hi, Abdul-Ahad.

过去一周，美元持续回落。

So the dollar has continued to correct lower over the past week.

主要驱动因素是什么？

What has been the main drivers?

是的。

Yeah.

正如你所说，过去几周美元确实失去了之前的上涨动力。

Like you said, over the last couple of weeks, the dollar has definitely lost some upward momentum.

过去一周，美元指数明显回撤，重新靠近100点的支撑位。

And if you say, we've seen the dollar index kind of moving back towards support closer to the 100 level over the past week.

对我们来说，最主要的原因是美国数据表现疲软，尤其是六月的通胀数据明显降温。

To us, the kind of main driver really has been the disappointing kind of US data where we saw, clear evidence of much softer US inflation in the month of June.

其实市场早有预期，因为六月汽油价格平均下跌了约10%，这自然拉低了整体通胀水平。

It was obviously widely expected that headline inflation would slow because gasoline prices had fallen on average by about 10% in the month of June, which obviously helped to bring down headline inflation.

但真正让人意外的是，更广泛的通缩压力正在显现。

But I think the biggest surprise really was the, I guess, the broader evidence of disinflation pressure.

如果我们看核心通胀，比如，这个月环比几乎没有变化。

So if we look at core inflation, for example, that was flat month on month.

我认为这是自去年五月以来最让人意外的下行表现。

I think that was the biggest downside surprise since May of of last year.

这对美联储和金融市场来说显然是个好消息。

So that definitely is good news for the Fed and for financial markets.

这会让他们更有空间在这个月维持利率不变，并在夏季观察通胀风险的发展趋势，再决定九月和十月——也就是十一月中期选举前——的下一次FOMC会议该怎么做。

It should give them more leeway to leave rates on hold this month and then give them time over the summer to see how inflation risks develop before we get to the kind of next FOMC meetings in September and October closer to the midterm elections in in November.

我们仍然认为，美联储有能力忽略这段时期的通胀走高。

It's our view still that we think that the Fed can look through this period of higher inflation.

对，没错。

Yes.

目前他们明显在通胀问题上态度强硬。

At the moment, they're they're clearly kind of talking tough on inflation.

过去一周，有三位美联储理事——克里斯托弗·沃勒、丽莎·库克，还有杰斐逊——都表示对当前的通胀水平感到不安，如果通胀不降温，他们愿意加息。但我们还是觉得，整个夏季会陆续出现更多证据，表明通胀正在放缓，这就能为他们维持利率不变提供充分理由。

We've seen three, Fed governors over the past week, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, and also, Jefferson as well, have all indicated that they are uncomfortable about the current level of inflation and are prepared to hike rates if inflation doesn't slow, but we still think that over the summer period, we should see more evidence emerging that inflation is slowing down, which then would give them the justification to to leave rates on hold.

因此，这仍然是我们预测美元在年底前进一步走弱的关键前提。

So that's still kind of a key assumption behind our forecast for the dollar to to weaken further as we head into into year end.

当然，这些预测也存在风险，最明显的就是中东地区重新爆发军事冲突，导致油价回升至每桶85美元以上。

There are obviously risks to those forecasts, the most obvious being the renewed military strikes in The Middle East, which have lifted the price of oil back above $85 per barrel.

这场冲突持续的时间越长，就越有可能推高通胀，迫使美联储考虑加息，这显然会让我们对美元走弱的预测面临上行风险。

Obviously, the longer that conflict goes on, the greater the risk that that could prove more inflationary and and put fed rate hikes onto the table, which would would clearly be an upside risk to our our forecast for a weaker dollar.

我们也在密切关注近期股市的变化，尤其是人工智能相关股票的表现有所疲软。

We're also monitoring closely as well recent developments in the equity market where we've seen some weakness in AI related equities.

在四五月间，AI相关股票经历了强劲上涨，但过去一个月左右，这类股票指数开始面临抛售压力。

Obviously, after a strong run higher for AI related equity performance in the months of kind of April and May, over the past month or so, we have seen AI related equity indices coming under some selling pressure.

如果这次调整进一步加剧，也可能对汇市的套利交易构成风险。

See if that correction lure was to deepen more significantly, that as well could pose some risks for carry trades in the FX market.

一旦金融市场稳定受到威胁，套利交易的环境就会变得不那么有利。

If we were to see financial market stability being threatened, that would make conditions for carry trades much less attractive.

此外，从美元头寸来看，这也可能成为打压美元的负面因素。

And additionally, in terms of dollar positioning, that also could be a negative factor for the dollar.

如果我们看一下美国财政部最近的逐笔交易数据，会发现直到五月，外国投资者大量买入美国股票，这说明市场对美国股市的多头头寸已经相当重了。

If we look at the recent tick data from the US Treasury, we can see there that there was significant buying of US equities by foreign investors up to the month of of May, which kind of highlights there that the market is more heavily positioned long US equities.

所以，如果AI股票出现大幅回调，也可能拖累美元走弱。

So if we were to see a significant correction lower for AI stocks, that could also feed and spill over into some weakness in the dollar as well.

谢谢，李。

Thanks, Lee.

在主要货币中，英镑最近表现突出。

So of the majors, sterling has been outperforming recently.

你认为英镑还会继续走强吗？

Do you expect sterling to strengthen further?

是的。

Yeah.

正如你所说，自从二月底中东冲突爆发以来，英镑的表现其实有点出人意料地强劲。

Like you say, I think it's been somewhat surprising that the pound has performed so well really since the Middle East conflict started back in in late February.

尤其是过去一个月，尽管英国国内的政治风险一直备受关注，英镑对欧元和美元都明显走强。

And definitely over the the past month, we've seen the pound clearly outperforming against both the euro and the dollar despite the kind of political risks that have been in focus in in The UK.

我认为英镑走强的一个重要原因，是市场最初对安迪·伯纳姆可能成为英国下一任首相的猜测反应过度悲观了。

I think, obviously, one of the reasons why the pound has has strengthened is that I think the market was obviously overly kind of pessimistic, at least initially, when speculation started to build over the prospect of Andy Burnham becoming the next prime minister of The UK.

当时市场担心这会导致英国经济和财政政策大幅左倾，进一步加剧财政和政策风险。

So the market was fearful that that could lead to a bigger shift to the left in terms of economic and fiscal policies here in The UK, adding to to fiscal risks and economic policy risk in in The UK.

但过去两到三周我们看到的是，安迪·伯纳姆的团队明确向金融市场传递了信号：他们会坚持财政纪律，把遵守当前政府的财政规则作为经济政策的核心原则。

But what we've seen really over the last kind of two to three weeks is clearly being that Andy Burnham's team have come out to reassure financial market participants that they will stick to fiscal discipline as a key, I guess, clea clea plank of their economic policy agenda commit committing to maintain the current government's fiscal rules.

此外，最近几天还有媒体报道称，安迪·伯纳姆很可能任命内政大臣马哈茂德出任下一任财政大臣，而没有选择前工党领袖埃德·米利班德。

And as well on top of that, in recent days, there's been media reports suggesting that Andy Burnham is likely to choose home secretary Mahmoud to be the next chancellor, and in the process kind of overlooking, former, Labour leader Ed Miliband.

市场最初松了一口气，因为米利班德来自工党左翼，过去也主张一些不利于增长的政策，比如对环保政策执行得过于严格。

I think the market is initially relieved that Miliband looks like he's unlikely to be the chancellor now given that he's more from the left wing of the Labour Party and also is associated with more kind of growth negative policies such as his kind of more strict adherence to environmental policies.

所以，如果下周初能确认马哈茂德将出任财政大臣，这也会进一步缓解市场对英国财政风险的担忧。

So from that perspective, if we do see confirmation early next week that Mahmoud is likely to be the next chancellor, I think that is also helping to ease those kind of fiscal risks in The UK.

另外，今年年初英镑表现强劲，也得益于英国经济更强的复苏势头。

I'd say as well the other kind of factor which has definitely helped the pound to perform well at the start of this year is also the stronger growth that we've seen for The UK economy.

如果你看国际货币基金组织最新的预测，英国是少数几个今年经济增长预期被上调的经济体之一。

If you look at the latest forecasts from the IMF, The UK is one of only few economies which have seen upward revisions to their growth forecasts for this year.

这周早些时候，月度GDP数据又出现了一次好于预期的上涨，表明第二季度的增长可能会上调一点。

And as we saw earlier this week as well, we did see another upside surprise in terms of the the monthly GDP data, which points towards a modest upward revision to to growth in in q two.

我认为，英国经济当前的周期性动能也为英镑走势提供了支撑。

So I think the kind of cyclical momentum for The UK economy has also been providing a a tailwind for for pound performance.

不过我们认为，目前英镑已经涨到了较高水平，很多利好消息其实已经被市场消化了。如果未来出现任何失望迹象——比如安迪·伯纳姆执政后的政策方向，或者英国经济增长动能开始放缓——英镑可能会面临下行压力。

We would say, though, that I think at these kind of stronger levels now that we do think a lot of that kind of good news is already priced into the pound, and it could leave the pound more vulnerable to the downside going forward if we do see any signs of disappointment, whether that's in terms of Andy Burnham's policy platform when he is prime minister or alternatively start to see some signs of of softening kind of growth momentum in The UK.

我知道，阿卜杜勒-阿哈德，你也仔细研究了最新的外汇期权交易数据和价格走势。

I know as well, Abdul-Ahad, that you've also been taking a look in more detail at the latest FX options flow data and also price action.

很想知道你有没有发现什么信号，可能对英镑未来的走势有重要影响。

Be interesting to see if there are any signals there that you think could be important in terms of pound performance going forward.

是的。

Yeah.

谢谢，李。

Thanks, Lee.

这周我们重点分析了外汇期权市场，看看投资者是如何看待安迪·伯纳姆出任首相的，以及他们是否在为英国政治风险的显著上升做定价。

So this week, we took a look at the FX options markets and how they're interpreting Andy Burnham's premiership and whether investors are pricing in a meaningful UK political risk event.

简而言之，现阶段答案是否定的。

And in short, the answer is not really at this stage.

我们的分析框架综合了英镑交叉货币的市场信号，并将其转化为四个定价指标。

So our framework aggregated signals across pound crosses and convert them into four my market pricing indicators.

分别是方向、不确定性、尾部风险和持续性。

The direction, uncertainty, tail risk, and persistence.

方向指标告诉我们，投资者更愿意为英镑上涨还是下跌购买保护。

So direction told us whether investors were paying more for pound upside or pound downside protection.

不确定性反映的是市场对英镑大幅波动的普遍需求，无论方向如何；尾部风险则关注市场是否在对极端汇率走势进行对冲。

Uncertainty captured demand for larger potential moves in pound regardless of direction, and tail risk looks at whether markets are hedging against extreme pound outcomes.

而持续性显示，这些风险溢价是否正在中长期合约中逐步固化。

And persistence shows whether any risk premiums is becoming embedded across medium term tenants.

从我们今天的信号来看，投资者对英镑上涨的潜在机会更感兴趣，而不是防范下跌。

So when we look at our signals today, investors are showing more interest in pound upside optionality than in downside protection.

隐含波动率依然处于低位。

And implied volatility remains subdued.

英镑特有的波动率溢价在大多数货币对中都处于低位，尾部风险定价更是异常低迷。

Pound specific volatility premier are contained across most crosses and tail risk pricing is exceptionally low.

换句话说，期权市场并不认为伯纳姆即将上台会给英镑带来重大的财政或政治冲击。

So in other words, the options market is not behaving as though an impending Burnham premiership represents a major fiscal or political shock for Sterling.

因此，我们可以将当前情况称为英镑的缓解行情，期权市场似乎认为伯纳姆执政对英镑总体无害，定价更偏向于缓解而非压力。

So we car characterize this as a pound relief trade regime, And the pound options market appears to be seeing Bernard's premiership as broadly benign for pound, with pricing tilted more towards relief than stress.

然而，如此低的波动率本身也可能值得警惕。

So however, the low levels of volatility may itself warrant caution.

英镑兑美元一个月的隐含波动率远低于五月冲击时的水平——我们是根据安迪·伯纳姆首次宣布参加梅菲尔德选举时的数据来判断的，尽管目前的政策前景依然不明朗。

So, cable one month implied volatility is well below the May shock level, and and we determined that based on when Andy Burnham first announced his standing in the Mayfield election, and that even though that the policy outlook currently remains uncertain.

有报道称，秋季预算可能更加雄心勃勃，比如征收土地税、加强对公用事业的公共控制，以及扩大地方自治，这些都意味着今年晚些时候仍可能出现财政风险。

So reports of a potentially more ambitious autumn budget, including ideas such as land tax and greater public control of utilities and and, expanded devolution mean fiscal risks could still emerge later in the year.

但眼下，市场的态度已经很明确了。

But for now, the market's message is clear.

英镑期权并没有把伯纳姆上台当作一个重大的风险事件来定价。

Pound options are not pricing in Burnham as a material risk event.

市场预期的是缓解，而不是动荡。

They're pricing in relief, not fair.

很好。

Great.

听到这个真不错，阿卜杜勒-阿哈德。

That's good to hear, Abdul-Ahad.

而且，这也就结束了今天的播客。

And, yeah, that brings an end to today's podcast.

感谢你参与，阿卜杜勒-阿哈德，也希望大家下周一切顺利。

Thanks for joining Abdul-Ahad, and, yeah, hope everyone has a good week ahead.

感谢收听本场摩根大通全球市场播客。

Thank you for listening to this MUFG global markets podcast.

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下周再来听全球市场研究团队带来的更多分析。

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